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Speaker 1: According to a diplomatic source, Hamas is preventing civilians inside

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Speaker 1: Gaza from leaving their homes when they are warned about

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Speaker 1: an impending strike by the Israelis. I confirmed this with

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Speaker 1: someone on the ground in Gaza City and then reached

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Speaker 1: out to Hamas for comment, a senior Hamas official telling

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Speaker 1: Fox News it's technically impossible. The initial information is good information,

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Speaker 1: and it is significant as we are getting reports today

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Speaker 1: about the Israelis telling all of the northern Gazan population

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Speaker 1: to leave because it appears a ground invasion is eminine well.

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Speaker 2: Ian Bremer, who were about to talk to tweeted out

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Speaker 2: that more than four hundred thousand have already fled their

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Speaker 2: homes in North Gaza headed south, as recommended by the Israelis.

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Speaker 3: And they headline The New York Times panic gripts Gaza

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Speaker 3: as Israel tells one point one million to leave the

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Speaker 3: north and Hamas is urging defiance of it. So I'd

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Speaker 3: say chaos is a fairly well applied term. Ian Bremer,

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Speaker 3: president of the Eurasia Group, author of the Power of Crisis,

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Speaker 3: to respect the commentator on a number of out let's Ian,

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Speaker 3: how are you always good to.

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Speaker 4: Talk gentlemen, I've missed you, and likewise.

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Speaker 3: It's good to talk. The immediate situation is chaotic enough.

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Speaker 3: I know you specialize in trying to imagine what the

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Speaker 3: next couple of steps are. How uncertain is the situation

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Speaker 3: right now?

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Speaker 4: Well, it's very certain in the sense that the Israelis

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Speaker 4: are going to escalate their airstrikes into Gaza and eventually

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Speaker 4: a ground occupation into Gaza. That is very clear. And

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Speaker 4: while the evacuation is going apace already four hundred thousand

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Speaker 4: Palestinians of about two point three million Kasa that have

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Speaker 4: left their homes and are trying to get out of

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Speaker 4: Dodge for safety, far more are still going to be there.

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Speaker 4: They will be unwilling or incapable of leaving, and that

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Speaker 4: means that the civilian consequences for this war are going

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Speaker 4: to get much much worse. This is of course, very

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Speaker 4: dangerous for the Israelis in terms of the impact it

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Speaker 4: has on their relations around the world, and they have

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Speaker 4: to be careful here.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's what we're just talking about. How wobbly do

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Speaker 2: you think the United States government, France and all these

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Speaker 2: other countries that have said we are with Israel one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent, howe hundred percent are they?

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Speaker 4: I mean, you remember when Biden said a few months

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Speaker 4: ago that we're with Ukraine for as long as it takes,

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Speaker 4: which you know a lot of it takes. Is not

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Speaker 4: something you usually hear from an eighty year old. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I worry. I worry, of course, that the willingness of

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Speaker 4: the United States, in any circumstance to be significantly a

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Speaker 4: long term committed to a serious fight has a cell

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Speaker 4: by date. This is very far from the United States.

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Speaker 4: It's very far from the heart of the average American

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Speaker 4: citizen that has been through four years of America First

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Speaker 4: and twenty years of an Afghanistan war, in a decade

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Speaker 4: of an Iraq war. I mean, you have to use

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Speaker 4: that as context. But certainly Israel is an issue that

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Speaker 4: has very strong bipartisan support from Democrats and Republicans in

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Speaker 4: the US. Fighting against Islamic terror is something that draws

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Speaker 4: a lot of interest for Americans. And yes, you can

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Speaker 4: find some students at Harvard that will say that the

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Speaker 4: Israelis are responsible. That is by no means representative of

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Speaker 4: the vast majority of the country.

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Speaker 3: Hey, let's look at this for a minute from the

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Speaker 3: perspective of Hamas, You don't plan an attack like this

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Speaker 3: for two years and spend the lives of a bunch

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Speaker 3: of fighters just to strike a blow then go hide again.

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Speaker 3: They have a plan, a strategy. What do you suppose

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Speaker 3: it is.

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Speaker 4: I think that a lot of times plans are born

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Speaker 4: of desperate plans come from having few good alternatives. And

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Speaker 4: over the last couple of years, what you've seen is

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Speaker 4: that the Palestinians have been marginalized in the region. Not

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Speaker 4: many countries have shown a lot of interest in helping

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Speaker 4: the Palestinians. Fellow Arab nations have said, well, we'll work

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Speaker 4: with the Israelis. And it doesn't even if the Palestinian

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Speaker 4: situation is getting worse, Even as not Yahoo is expanding

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Speaker 4: his settlements illegally on Palestinian territory, you have governments lining

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Speaker 4: up to open diplomatic relations with Israel. So the Palestinians

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Speaker 4: are loosing there and the Palestinians are becoming irrelevant for

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Speaker 4: the Israelis. Israelis are focusing on things like corruption, scandals

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Speaker 4: and social descents and judicial reform, and all of that

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Speaker 4: I think is a useful context to understand why Hamas

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Speaker 4: would consider this kind of Attech because they increasingly felt

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Speaker 4: isolated and that nothing else was working for them. But

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Speaker 4: let's be clear, Haamas is not new to the terrorism game.

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Speaker 4: Harmas has been killing and trying to kill lots of

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Speaker 4: Israeli civilians for a long time. What has really changed

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Speaker 4: here dramatically is their ability to do so, and that

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Speaker 4: is not in Yahoo taking his eye off the ball.

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Speaker 4: The Israeli Prime Minister has access to the best border

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Speaker 4: security in the world. This is not like US Mexico

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Speaker 4: border security. This is serious border security. They have real

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Speaker 4: human intelligence, I mean gold standard signals intelligence on the

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Speaker 4: ground and in the air to be able to understand

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Speaker 4: exactly what the Palestinians are up to. And for the

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Speaker 4: last six months they have taken their eye off the ball.

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Speaker 4: They have not focused on this issue at all. In fact,

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Speaker 4: they've taken a lot of the defense forces off of

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Speaker 4: security with Gaga and put them into the West Bank

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Speaker 4: because they were expanding the settlements in their Palatinian reprisal. So,

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Speaker 4: I mean eighty six percent of Israelis in a poll

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Speaker 4: two days ago by the Jerusalem Post, which is a

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Speaker 4: right one newspaper in Israel, blame not Yahoo for this,

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Speaker 4: which is astonishing it's astonishing. So let's recognize that that's

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Speaker 4: the biggest thing that has changed is that the Israelis

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Speaker 4: do And if you're going to lock up the Palestindians

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Speaker 4: in Gaza, two point three million people, ninety percent don't

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Speaker 4: have access to water, fifty percent don't have access to

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Speaker 4: proper food. If you're going to do that and you're

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Speaker 4: going to take more of their land, you better focus

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Speaker 4: on national security. You better make sure the border is

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Speaker 4: secure and not in Yahoo didn't do that.

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Speaker 2: So I want to get this question, and I know

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Speaker 2: I have a limited time with you if I'm if

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Speaker 2: I'm running China and my goal is to take Taiwan,

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Speaker 2: I can't imagine a better time than when the United

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Speaker 2: States is involved in this and the world is paying

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Speaker 2: attention to this, and you got an old president who

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Speaker 2: might not be completely with it mentally. Why wouldn't that.

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Speaker 4: Have a lot of reasons. One is that China's growth

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Speaker 4: right now is very low, and if they take Taiwan,

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Speaker 4: it's going to be a disaster for Chinese growth. You

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Speaker 4: destroy companies that they do a lot of business with,

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Speaker 4: not least of which TSMC, one of the most important

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Speaker 4: strategic companies in the world with all the semiconductors, and

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Speaker 4: they don't get the high level semiconductors, so they get

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Speaker 4: everything else there. So that's key. Secondly, militarily, this is

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Speaker 4: an amphibious assault. It's over one hundred miles away from

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Speaker 4: China mainland China. I'm not sure they'd be able to

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Speaker 4: do it militarily right now. Certainly that's the view of

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Speaker 4: people that focus on this a lot more closely than

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Speaker 4: I do. And so I would be shocked to see

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Speaker 4: a sudden, sudden military attack by the Chinese against Taiwan.

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Speaker 4: And you know, this is a time when China has

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Speaker 4: been sending signals that they want to work more closely

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Speaker 4: with the United States. You know, they just met with

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Speaker 4: Chuck Schumer and a bipartisan group of senators for eighty minutes.

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Speaker 4: Chuck Schumer's wife won't meet with him for eighty minutes,

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Speaker 4: so you know, I mean, the fact that Chijin thing

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Speaker 4: did that in the run up to the Apex summit

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Speaker 4: with Biden next month, I mean, does show that they

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Speaker 4: are trying to normalize relations a little bit.

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Speaker 2: And it sounds like you have some insight into the

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Speaker 2: Schumer marriage that maybe we'll ask you about the future.

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Speaker 4: God. Yeah, yeah, that's a longer conversation.

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Speaker 3: Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group. A final thought, Ian,

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Speaker 3: and feel free to lead your next newsletter with this.

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Speaker 3: There is no way Joe Biden will be the candidate

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Speaker 3: of the Democratic Party for president next November. Zero chance.

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Speaker 3: If you bet me one hundred dollars up against both

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Speaker 3: of my femurs, I would take that bet. Go ahead, printed,

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Speaker 3: I'll do it.

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Speaker 4: I will bet you that I want yours.

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Speaker 5: I want yours, I want you.

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Speaker 4: Had interest in yours, but I would definitely want them.

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Speaker 3: Hang them on your wall is a trophy, That's fine.

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Speaker 3: I'm that confident.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Biden's de nominee.

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Speaker 5: There is no plan b I mean look, I mean

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Speaker 5: I don't understand the fact is it's thirteen months away,

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Speaker 5: and my crystal ball tells me that he will be

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Speaker 5: thirteen months older in thirteen months, and that is a

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Speaker 5: big deal.

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Speaker 4: That is non negligible. But the president wants to run.

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Speaker 4: Everyone around him recognizes that, and until that changes, there

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Speaker 4: is no other nominee. So, I mean, look, I think

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Speaker 4: that everyone out there would like the Americans to punt

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Speaker 4: the election to twenty twenty eight. Yeah, and then you'll

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Speaker 4: have two different candidates, but that is not where we are.

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Speaker 2: God, twenty four is going to be a crazy year.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure we'll be.

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Speaker 4: Talking a lot. I'm excited about this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, get that Hunsky ready for me. Ian Bremmer always

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Speaker 3: great to talk you and thanks.

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Speaker 4: Very good guys.

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Speaker 2: Yep, he's excited about your femurs, Armstrong and Getty