1 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,600 Speaker 1: The show goes on. This is the official show on 2 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: the fish on First podcast channel with me Eli Susman. 3 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: I'm the founder of fish on First, providing you guys 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: with complete Miami Marlin's coverage. We're doing it at our 5 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: new site. If you haven't been paying attention to these 6 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 1: last few weeks, we have totally revamped our website, phish 7 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,959 Speaker 1: on first dot com with the help of Diamond Centric. 8 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: I think we've now made it. We're on our way 9 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: to making it the first ever true Marlins supersites. 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So make sure, especially 27 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,279 Speaker 1: on Apple, that you're following the channel with the new logo. 28 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: That's the one that is continuing to be updated all 29 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 1: throughout the year. And we are on the precipice of 30 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: the start of the new season. The reason that we 31 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: know that is because of the news coming out on 32 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: Monday of non roster invitees to twenty twenty four Marlins 33 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: spring training. Before getting into the NRIs, I do want 34 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: to remind you about who is actually on this Marlins 35 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: roster to begin with. So those are the ones that 36 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: it goes without saying they have the inside track to 37 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 1: make the Marlins opening day roster. The Marlins have a 38 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: full forty man for the moment right as pitchers and 39 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 1: catchers report, they'll be opening up one spot when they 40 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: can move Sandy al Contra to the sixty day il. 41 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: Other than that, it is jam packed. It is not 42 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 1: a good forty man roster. We've been pretty blunt about 43 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: that how many of these players on this forty man 44 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 1: seem to be expendable ones that you can't really trust 45 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: all that far. It is relatively experienced forty man roster. 46 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: Ninety percent of these guys have major league experience, and 47 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: because of that, when we talk about these NRIs, they 48 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: have kind of an uphill climb in order to crack 49 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,359 Speaker 1: this because that means they have to leap over players 50 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 1: that already on the forty man Thirty six of these 51 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: guys have played in the big leagues before. A couple 52 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: of them have been called up to the big leagues 53 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 1: and haven't played during those short stints. But you can 54 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: actually say that ninety thirty eight out of forty have 55 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: at least been on a major league active roster at 56 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: some point. You have to be really impressive during a 57 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: relatively short sample size during spring training in order to 58 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: leap over them. Injuries tend to be a pretty big factor, 59 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,239 Speaker 1: and there have been i think one recent year with 60 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 1: the Marlins, where none of the nri's actually made the 61 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: opening day roster. The vast majority of the time, historically, 62 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: at least one of them does step up and That's 63 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: why we dive into this, because we think odds are 64 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: at least one of these guys will find their way 65 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: onto the Marlins opening day roster, which is coming up 66 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: in fifty one days. As of this recording, it is 67 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: coming in fast and furious. Here so quickly the full 68 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: list that'll go through of these NRIs. In addition to 69 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: forty men roster, this now brings the total up to 70 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 1: sixty players that we're gonna definitely be seeing at the 71 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: start of spring. Trending in Jupiter to run through them. 72 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: Right handed pitchers Elvis Alvarado, matt Ian Drese, Robert Arias, 73 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: Jeff Lindgren, Kyle Tyler, left handed pitchers Pat Monteverde and 74 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: Devin Smeltzer, Catchers Will Banfield, Bennett Hosteler, Paul McIntosh, Johnny Parada, 75 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: infielders Jacob Barry, Jose Devers, Tristan Gray, Troy Johnston, Trey Mancini, 76 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: Javier Sonoa, and outfielders Griffin Conine, Marty Costas, Jonathan Davis. 77 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: A lot of these guys were actually in the organization 78 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 1: last year. It's only seven of them coming truly from 79 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: the outside for this competition. I'm going to dive into 80 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:51,039 Speaker 1: six of these twenty players on this episode that I 81 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: feel are superlative for one particular reason or another. That's 82 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: the title this episode, NRI Superlatives. Well, we'll go with 83 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: first is the youngest one of the bunch, Javier Sonoa. 84 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: That is his unique trait. He's going to be twenty 85 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,720 Speaker 1: one years old for almost the entirety of this twenty 86 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: twenty four season, not turning twenty two until September. The 87 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 1: second youngest player in camp overall, behind only a Yori Perez. 88 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: There's a difference of five months age wise between them 89 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: and Sonoah is from the same international signing class as Perez. 90 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 1: That was a class that was headlined by Jose Salas, 91 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: Junior Sanchez, Ian Lewis. Those three guys took up the 92 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: vast majority of Marlin's bonus pool that year. And yet 93 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: it's Perez that's already kind of cemented himself as a 94 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: big league starter, and now Sonoah who is also ready 95 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: coming up to big league camp. The last season split 96 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: it between low A and Hie. I would say I 97 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 1: was clamoring for him to get up to Hya a 98 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: little bit sooner. It was only thirty games at the 99 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 1: end of the year. What stood out is his incredible 100 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: bats of ball skills. He had a seven percent strikeout 101 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: rate in High A. He had a seven point four 102 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: in LOWA. The only real struggles he's had so far 103 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: in his career. I guess he had a little bit 104 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: of struggles in the DSL at the start of his 105 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: professional career, and then a little bit in Jupiter in 106 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. Last year was super impressive for the 107 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: standards of hitting prospects in this organization, where so few 108 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 1: guys had actually good years at age appropriate levels. This 109 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: is somebody as a twenty year old who had barely 110 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: ever whiffed on the ball. He hit over three hundred 111 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: in Low A in a solid two sixty seven at 112 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: High A. By w RC plus you combine both levels, 113 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 1: he's slightly over one hundred. That is in itself impressive 114 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 1: because this guy's an up the middle player. They listed him, 115 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,679 Speaker 1: as I mentioned, as an infielder on this spring roster. 116 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: I find that kind of curious because he overall has 117 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: played more games in center field than he has in 118 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: the infield spots as of late last year. It is 119 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: highly unusual to see a prospect that this young alternate 120 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: between catcher, center fields, second base, and shortstop during the 121 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: course of the season. The fact that all three of 122 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: those positions are still on the table for him, through 123 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: my eyes, I think he's really solid at just about 124 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: all them. Shortstop is going to be the biggest push 125 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: for is going to be kind of the biggest if 126 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: about him, because if he is a shortstop, that himself 127 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: really raises his floor. But he's super fast. Last year 128 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: stole thirty seven bases, and I think that was second 129 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: to the organization behind only Nassim Nunez the year before. 130 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: He was at eighteen. Year before he's eleven. The efficiency 131 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: of his base stealing could improve a little bit, as 132 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: is usually the kids of the youngest guy in camp. 133 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:51,239 Speaker 1: His chances of actually making the roster are essentially non existent. 134 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: I don't see a path here. The Marlins don't want 135 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: to rush him on the forty man any earlier than 136 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: they have to. If he is even better than they 137 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: thought he was, than they'll want to be careful with 138 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: his service time and ensure that they have six more 139 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: years of control even beyond this year. I think realistically 140 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: his eta to the big league is going to be 141 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, It would be a pretty big shock 142 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 1: if he makes any major league appearances this season. It does. 143 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: It is quite a statement though that he is an 144 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: NRI as somebody that even in his international class was 145 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: not among the higher profile guys. So he's come a 146 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: long way since. Then'm glad to see him rewarded for 147 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: the big year that he had in twenty twenty three. Then, 148 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: on the other end of the spectrum, the oldest NRI 149 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:37,599 Speaker 1: in Marlins camp, Matt Andrees. This was one of the 150 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: earlier NRIs reported off the top of my head, I 151 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: think in December, and maybe even earlier than that, because 152 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 1: the joke was he was one of many players that 153 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 1: came in that early on in this offseason with a 154 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Rays connection. I'm using his Angels photo that 155 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 1: was taken in what twenty twenty in His most recent 156 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: big league experience was in twenty twenty one, but he 157 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: started his major league career with the Rays and that 158 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: was way back in twenty fifteen. At this point, now 159 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 1: thirty four years old. He turns thirty five in August. 160 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: In different times where he was kind of, yeah, at 161 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: his best, you could say that he was a back 162 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: end starter for the Rays. He made nineteen starts in 163 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. He made seventeen and twenty seventeen overall with 164 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: a big league career four to sixty three ERA, so 165 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: it's a little bit worse than Lee average. The FIP 166 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,719 Speaker 1: is more encouraging for his career a four point two 167 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: to one fifth because he throws a lot of strikes 168 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: even though he doesn't throw especially hard, below average velocity, 169 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: especially for a starting pitch, even for a starting pitcher, 170 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: but the strike up rate that was pretty close to 171 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: Lee average during his career overall twenty one point seven 172 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 1: percent of the time. But he's been a journeyman as 173 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: of late. After leaving the Rays, went to the Diamondbacks, 174 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 1: then the Angels, then Boston and Seattle. This past year 175 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: he was with the Dodgers Triple A affiliate. So he 176 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: is the kind of just that bulk that you could 177 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 1: say he's a little bit, potentially a little bit more 178 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: than a mop up guy, but he's going to be 179 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: able to give you length if you really needed. He 180 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 1: spent last year as a starter in Triple A, so 181 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: there's not going to be a particular ending slimmit for him. 182 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 1: Always good to have a body like that. I think 183 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: more than a few of you have been clamoring for 184 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: the Marlins to get an actual veteran who's of major 185 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: league quality, who can do that instead of somebody that 186 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 1: was kind of struggling frankly at Triple A last year. 187 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 1: You see if I can get those numbers with Triple A. Yeah, 188 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: he had a six oh five era he was playing 189 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 1: in the PCL, So you need to take that with 190 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: a grain of salt. Like league adjusted, it's still bad, 191 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,839 Speaker 1: but it's not quite as alarming as six oh five 192 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: My team on the surface last year playing in the 193 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: super hitter friendly environments. Anyway, Matta injuries, he's the gray 194 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:11,199 Speaker 1: beard of this group. Then going to the most accomplished 195 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: player of these NRIs, pretty easy one here, Trey Mancini. 196 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 1: So that news about him signing came out last week, 197 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: maybe the week before a World Series champion with the 198 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: Houston Astros, but far more notably, you remember Hit from 199 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: his days with the Baltimore Orioles five seasons, parts of six, yeah, 200 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,319 Speaker 1: parts of six seasons to start his career. There was 201 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: a gap in between when he was battling cancer and 202 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 1: great that he beat that and got back on the field. 203 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: And returned as an everyday player, just not quite as 204 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 1: effective an everyday player as he was prior to those 205 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: health issues. Overall, for his career a slash line of 206 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: two sixty three three twenty eight, four forty eight. There's 207 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: a one oh nine w RC plus that is six 208 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: point three fangrass wins above replacement in eight hundred and 209 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: thirty one major league games. Yeah, he's been durable outside 210 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 1: of that really freaky and scary cancer diagnosis, playing at 211 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: least one hundred and forty games every year from twenty 212 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: seventeen to twenty twenty two, with twenty twenty taken out 213 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 1: of that. At his best in twenty nineteen, thirty five 214 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: home runs, ninety seven runs batted in one hundred and 215 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: six runs scored as well. Not particularly good athlete even 216 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: at his best, only two career stolen bases, and he's 217 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 1: generally been a below average base runner every single year 218 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: of his career. His value kind of comes down to 219 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: hard line drives, singles, doubles, and home runs. Early in 220 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 1: his career, the home runs are there. Recently, they just 221 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: haven't been. He had only eighteen in twenty twenty two, 222 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 1: and last year in over a half season with the Cubs, 223 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: he had four homers, so they cut him, even though 224 00:12:57,840 --> 00:12:59,719 Speaker 1: it was in just the first year of a two 225 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: year deal fourteen million dollars. The yeah, the unflattering truth 226 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 1: is that he was awfully similar to the Cubs version 227 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: of Gene Sigura last year. That's kind of how bad 228 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: things got. It was a similar contract to Segura, not 229 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: yea a different type of player, not quite as it's 230 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 1: not quite as old, so that is what made it 231 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 1: a little bit surprising. But at the same time, because 232 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 1: he struggled so much laid in twenty twenty two with 233 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: the Astros, it didn't come out of nowhere. This is 234 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: kind of a continuation of a trend where if you 235 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: go back to the last one hundred and thirty games for Mantini, 236 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 1: it's like a seventy five seventy six WRC plus over 237 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: a very big sample. And that's why he's a minor 238 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: league deal. Well, it's also a minor league deal because 239 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,199 Speaker 1: the Cubs are still paying him right so these players 240 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: can't get double paid as well. With the Marlins, it's 241 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 1: a pretty no brainer bounce back candidate. Potentially, if he 242 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 1: just bounces back to what he was with the Orioles 243 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:00,239 Speaker 1: in early twenty twenty two. Well, he had one nineteen 244 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: WRC plus of the Orioles before getting traded as well. 245 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 1: Like there is, this was a pretty no brainer guy 246 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: to bring in for a team that, as you know, 247 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: is still really insecure with its offense. Mancini primarily a 248 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: first baseman, he has played the corner of outfield spots 249 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: in the past. I would say his if he just 250 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: simply mashes enough in the spring, then he's gonna force 251 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: his way on the roster. Also, if he shows that 252 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: he still has some juice in his legs to patrol 253 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: the outfield at a passable level, I think that'll be 254 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: a pretty important factor too. It's hard to I'm generally 255 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 1: not a huge fan of the idea of rostering to 256 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: first base only players, but if he can at least 257 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: fake it in the outfield this stage of his career, 258 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: now entering his age thirty two season, I think that 259 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: would be a pretty important factor to keep him going. 260 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 1: On the other end of the spectrum, looking at my 261 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: favorite sleeper here, the player that is probably know the 262 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: least about that, I would say among all these players, 263 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: he was high up there on my list of ones 264 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: who I had not heard of prior to him being signed. 265 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 1: Elvis Alvarado, twenty four year old reliever who throws one 266 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: hundred mile per hour sinkers. That's kind of the skinny 267 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: on him. That's what makes him really notable. Pitched in 268 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: the Dominican Winter League this past year. Prior to that, 269 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: he was in the Tigers organization. But he's bounced around 270 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: a little bit. He started his pro career with the Gnats, 271 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 1: then went to Seattle, and then he was in the 272 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: Tigers organization the last two years. He's been a reliever 273 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: from the jump in his pro career. Never really had 274 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: much illusions about starting which watching him like, there's the 275 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: makings of four different pitches here. The sinker is the headliner. 276 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: That's why he throws most often. That's what gets results about. 277 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: It's an exceptional combo of velo and armside movement that 278 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: he gets on that pitch. It's at times it's a 279 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: good strikeout pitch, like this past year across three different levels, 280 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: his strikeout rate was twenty six percent something around there. 281 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: But even more so, it's about avoiding the barrel of 282 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: the bat and getting some soft contact. He could throw 283 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 1: four seamers at the top of the zone because of 284 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: how much movement he gets on his sinker. The four 285 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: steamer is a distinct pitch when it doesn't have that movement, 286 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: and it's when it's in a different eye level that 287 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: he throws it at. He's got a slider low eighties, 288 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 1: low to mid eighties, and then I've seen a couple 289 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: of change ups of him. That seems to be the 290 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: weakest offering in his bunch as well. Always been a reliever. 291 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: I don't I think that itself is still staying. I 292 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: still find I do find it intriguing though, that he 293 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: could potentially have a deeper pitch mix than other guys. 294 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: He for the most party lives and dies with that sinker. 295 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 1: This past year, he finally made his first appearance at 296 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 1: the Double A level, and it was only one game 297 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: at the end of the season. It was only one 298 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: ending at the very end of the season, but stands 299 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 1: out to me. It's just how well he was pitching 300 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 1: heading into this. He has momentum. You could say, I mean, 301 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 1: you could chop up these sample sizes any way you want. 302 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: I do find it interesting that he has had twenty 303 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: one consecutive scoreless appearances, all them really short ones. Still 304 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: twenty one straight scoreless between minor league season and winter ball. 305 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 1: It was fourteen games in the Winter League. Was the 306 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: last seven of the twenty twenty three regular season that 307 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: was scoreless. I mean, that's pretty notable to me. When 308 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: I say a comp a sleeper, I don't mean a 309 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: sleeper to make the opening day roster. That'd be a 310 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 1: pretty massive upset because, as you know we've talked about 311 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 1: with this Marlins forty man, it's not only full, but 312 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,479 Speaker 1: it is full of relievers. It's full of also a 313 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 1: couple of starters that are gonna a couple of relievers 314 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 1: that are gonna pretend to be starters. But it's twenty 315 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: three pitchers on this forty man. It's a lot of 316 00:17:55,600 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: other pitchers that have good V low and solid breaking ball. 317 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,919 Speaker 1: So he's pretty far in line. I'd say his chances 318 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: of making the open day roster there a little bit 319 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 1: better than Javi or Sonoa. They're still really low. I 320 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,919 Speaker 1: mean it as somebody that we didn't really know anything 321 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: about that could be by the end of the season, 322 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 1: he could be up in the big leagues, and I 323 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: think long term he could be a better player than 324 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: we currently know him to be. I think he's somebody 325 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: that by the end of the year could be up 326 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 1: in the big leagues and then he could stick around 327 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 1: for a number of years as at the very least 328 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: a middle reliever in this pen. But it's a really 329 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: fun pitch. It's that sinker, and he was up to 330 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: one hundred. He was sitting high nineties, really sitting like 331 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,719 Speaker 1: ninety eight, ninety seven, ninety eight on average during the 332 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: course of a winter ball. Needs to iron out his 333 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 1: control a little bit, but he's a lot closer to 334 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 1: being a passable strike thrower than you might expect for 335 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: somebody that hasn't really had much of a chance in 336 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: the high miners until coming over here. To finish us off, 337 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 1: we want to talk about the ones who are most 338 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 1: likely to actually make the cuts and actually push for 339 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: Marlin's opening day jobs. Almost every year, not every year, 340 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,639 Speaker 1: but almost every year, one of these NRIs sneaks out 341 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: to the forty man. Somehow, we know they're going to 342 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 1: create a little bit of wiggle room once moving Sandy 343 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 1: al Contra to the sixty day IL, so there's gonna 344 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: be some wiggle room, and unfortunately there are almost always 345 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 1: some additional injuries that happened during the course of spring training. 346 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: I already mentioned Trey Mancini, He's the obvious one. With Mancini, 347 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 1: I think I would give his chances of cracking the 348 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:45,479 Speaker 1: opening day roster is slightly over fifty percent, especially like 349 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: factoring in his track record and also anticipating that maybe 350 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 1: somebody is going to get hurt. So many different players 351 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 1: on this roster, whether it is any of the corner outfielders, 352 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 1: whether it's first base or any of the DH candidates, 353 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 1: like anybody from Berger to Bell to de la Cruz 354 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: to Sanchez to ave Garcia. Like, if any of those 355 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 1: guys get hurt, it creates more room, especially for a 356 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 1: right handed hitter like Mancini, who had times in his 357 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 1: career has had really strong production against lefties. So it 358 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 1: does a little bit to fill the Jorge Solaire void. 359 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: I think Mancini is pretty high up there in terms 360 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: of his opportunity to make the cut. Right behind him, 361 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: i'd have Jonathan Davis JD is back. I think the 362 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 1: fact that he was essentially non tendered early by the Marlins. 363 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: They waived him, nobody claimed him, became a free agent 364 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: and then he re signed with the team. I'd say 365 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 1: that is relatively rare to get squeezed off the team's 366 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 1: forty men roster and then still come back to that team. 367 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: That is somebody that recognizes he'll have a pretty good 368 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: opportunity to make that team, that he has some sort 369 00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: of role to play as currently constructed. Like, who's the 370 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 1: backup center field behind jazzism Junior. You could say it's 371 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: Vidal brew Hahn occasionally, but even he hasn't played a 372 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: ton of center field in his career, and his offense 373 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: is just as suspect as Jonathan Davis is. Maybe it's 374 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 1: Hey sus Sanchez, maybe it's John. You can put John 375 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: Birdie there in an absolute emergency, but Jonathan Davis would 376 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,679 Speaker 1: be kind of the better fit for backup center field 377 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 1: pinch running role as well. Who last year he hit 378 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: so much better than people thought he would at the 379 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 1: big league level. Was an eighty five WRC plus and 380 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 1: really timely hits, a good situational hitter. Even though we 381 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: have a liability overall at the plate, I think he's 382 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: a pretty solid shot of squeezing in there somehow. And 383 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 1: then Devin Smeltzer is not a sexy pick right here, 384 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 1: because he got plenty of opportunities last year and aside 385 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: from that one game he could wistfully remember that one 386 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,919 Speaker 1: game in Cleveland. Aside from that one, he just was 387 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: not very impressive. But they kept defying him, they kept 388 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 1: outriding him, and he kept coming back. This was a 389 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: player that could have had could have elected free agency 390 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,239 Speaker 1: during the last season if you felt there were other 391 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,400 Speaker 1: opportunities elsewhere. He kept coming back and they as relatively 392 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 1: early in the offseason, they committed to bringing him back 393 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: and he wanted to come back. If that's the case, 394 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,920 Speaker 1: and this is a player that they know that they 395 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 1: can call up in a pinch and use him either 396 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 1: as a spot starter or as a mop up man, 397 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: and then when they inevitably have to squeez him off 398 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 1: the forty man, that he's gonna stay around and be 399 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: available to be used later in the year. Then I 400 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: think that shows you that he's gonna be pretty high 401 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,120 Speaker 1: up in line for when they inevitably need this kind 402 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: of filler like player. When injuries pop up, when just 403 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 1: you have a lot of fatigue on your pitching staff, 404 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 1: there will be opportunities for somebody like him. Matt Andrees 405 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 1: is in the same bucket elsewhere on this team. Jeff 406 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 1: Lindegren on the other NRIs, he's in a similar boat 407 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:12,480 Speaker 1: as well. But I picked Smelter as the one that 408 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 1: at the start of the season always injuries have to 409 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: be a factor here, but I think if he is 410 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 1: on the roster, it'd be pretty short lived. I think 411 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,919 Speaker 1: the usage will be relatively similar to last year, a 412 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 1: couple of weeks at most with him on the active 413 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: roster and then you just send him down and then 414 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,119 Speaker 1: calm up again when you need it. So that's diving 415 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 1: deep on six particular guys. I was watching on YouTube 416 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 1: again one last look at the full group that we 417 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 1: have so far. There could be additional ones. I do 418 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 1: still expect there to be additional acquisitions between now and 419 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,959 Speaker 1: the start of the season. This has been so slow 420 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: moving that there just are still dozens and dozens of 421 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: interesting major league free agents on the market, and there 422 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 1: could be other minor league guys that are worth a 423 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,159 Speaker 1: chot squeezing in here. I believe the limit for a 424 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: spring training group as a whole is seventy five players. 425 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: Marlins are only at sixty, so there is some wiggle 426 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:15,239 Speaker 1: room to continue adding to this group, and there are 427 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: some interesting names beyond the ones that I mentioned, but 428 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 1: I just want to be pretty concise with this analysis. 429 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 1: You can see the full list up on fish on 430 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,360 Speaker 1: First dot com, so there will be this podcast posted there, 431 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,360 Speaker 1: a separate article from Kevin Barral as well, and one 432 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: more look at are Sexy Redesigned website. We appreciate everybody 433 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,680 Speaker 1: that's visited so far this pat The previous week prior 434 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 1: to my recording was by far a more visited time 435 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 1: since we became our own site in May of twenty 436 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: twenty three. Once the Marlins actually give us some things 437 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,400 Speaker 1: to cover directly about them, then I think it's gonna 438 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 1: explode even more and we're gonna make it a place 439 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: where it's really easy to access the information and the 440 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,719 Speaker 1: entertainment that you want relevant to the Marlins. I employ 441 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,400 Speaker 1: you to consider becoming a super subfish on First dot 442 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 1: com slash subscriptions to support us that way. If you've 443 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: done it in the past there a lot of you 444 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,880 Speaker 1: that have, then we think you should come over because 445 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 1: we're gonna give you even more bang for your buck 446 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 1: in terms of extra content and attention throughout the course 447 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty four Major League season. I've been 448 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 1: eli Susban. This has been the official show every Tuesday 449 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,159 Speaker 1: morning for the foreseeable future. I'll have new episodes of 450 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 1: this talking all things Marlin, talking with people in and 451 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: around the Marlins and my fellow staffers here at FOF 452 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: as well. That being said, episode two eleven of the 453 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,879 Speaker 1: Official Show. A whole lot more podcast content coming up 454 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 1: here from our various programming. We help you stay tuned 455 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 1: and listen, rate, and review wherever applicable. Leave a like 456 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 1: on the video if you're watching on YouTube. I'll talk 457 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,640 Speaker 1: to you guys again really soon. Spring training right around 458 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: the corner. Don't Fit