WEBVTT - Fundamentals Still Matter Despite Reddit Noise: Federated's Orlando

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along

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<v Speaker 1>with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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<v Speaker 1>along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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<v Speaker 1>and on Bloomberg dot com. Let's get to our next guest, now,

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<v Speaker 1>Phil Orlando, with chief equity market strategist and ahead of

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<v Speaker 1>client portfolio managing at Federated Hermes and always has really

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<v Speaker 1>interesting things to say. Phil, Since the last time we

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<v Speaker 1>spoke with you, I think maybe a couple of structural

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<v Speaker 1>fragilities have been exposed in this market and also some

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<v Speaker 1>froth in places, more places now than before. What's your

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<v Speaker 1>big take on what's going on between the redditors and

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<v Speaker 1>the market and the brokerages and the hedge funds. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know this whole uh reddit game, stop robin hood

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<v Speaker 1>saying is is very interesting and certainly very entertaining. But

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<v Speaker 1>but the reality is that that ultimately fundamentals still matter.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. I don't know if you stayed up late

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<v Speaker 1>to watch the Saturday Night Live skit with Kate McKinnon

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<v Speaker 1>and Pete Davidson. But you know, all kidding aside, that

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<v Speaker 1>really shone a light on what ultimately matters longer term,

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<v Speaker 1>and that if a company's fundamentals are strong, revenues and

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<v Speaker 1>earnings will go up and that will drive share prices higher.

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<v Speaker 1>If the business is weak, revenues and earnings are going

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<v Speaker 1>the wrong way, ultimately the share price will decline. Now

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<v Speaker 1>that there could be noise in the interim, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing now with with you know, the hedge

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<v Speaker 1>funds and the redded people and whatever. But but you know, um,

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<v Speaker 1>longer term, ultimately, these companies are going to succeed or

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<v Speaker 1>fail on the basis of the underlying supply and demand

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<v Speaker 1>and strength of their business. Still. I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen these stype the phenomena in the past and

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<v Speaker 1>kind of you know, a term of old day trader,

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<v Speaker 1>if you will. But I guess what's new here is

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<v Speaker 1>there's so much liquidity on the sidelines, so much liquidity

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<v Speaker 1>in the marketplace. You've got the advent of social media

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<v Speaker 1>and the ability for retailers to kind of really team

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<v Speaker 1>up if you will, in a particular security. Um, you've

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<v Speaker 1>got the pandemic, people are kind of locked in their homes.

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<v Speaker 1>How much of this is kind of a one off,

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<v Speaker 1>short term phenomena versus maybe a new wrinkle to the

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<v Speaker 1>market going forward. Everything you've said is absolutely true that

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<v Speaker 1>we you know, the advent of social media, the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that they're somewhere between four and five trillion dollars of

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<v Speaker 1>cash sitting on the sidelines. Uh, we're sitting here. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>The last personal savings rate we saw was around thirteen

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<v Speaker 1>or fourteen percent. So people are flush with cash, stock

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<v Speaker 1>markets up, They've got nothing to do. We're locked in

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<v Speaker 1>our house. We've got a snowstorm here in the northeast, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, And and people are bored, and they say, well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's let's stick it to the man. Let's let's take

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<v Speaker 1>out some of these wealthy hedge fund guys and team

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<v Speaker 1>up and drive these stocks higher and force them to

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<v Speaker 1>cover their shorts. All of that's true, But the reality is,

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<v Speaker 1>where's the endgame? At what point do fundamentals matter and

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<v Speaker 1>individuals need to sell to lock in their profits or

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<v Speaker 1>create some additional liquidity. Who are they going to sell

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<v Speaker 1>to if the fundamentals are poor and everyone who uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, potentially they would need to buy the stock

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<v Speaker 1>is already in UM, so you run the risk of

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the mirror image of this somewhere down the

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<v Speaker 1>road now is that? Is that somewhere down the road tomorrow,

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<v Speaker 1>next week, next month timing? I have no idea, So yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and I suppose that was my original question, Phil. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a combination of market makeup, positioning, hedge, fund positioning,

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<v Speaker 1>retail positioning, so much leverage, technicals, economic risk thanks to COVID,

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<v Speaker 1>there are so many difficulties out there. What would make

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<v Speaker 1>you want to trade in this market or I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>would you even want to sort of deleverage a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit here? Well, certainly we're not buying into this. We're

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<v Speaker 1>we're not buying these stocks that we think or you know,

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<v Speaker 1>have poor fundamentals that are getting driven up because of

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<v Speaker 1>these market dynamics. Ultimately, we're looking across the proverbial valley

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<v Speaker 1>and seeing, you know, what could happen on the other

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<v Speaker 1>side when when you've got some margin calls or when

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<v Speaker 1>you start to get a tsunami of selling in order

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<v Speaker 1>to create some liquidity. So we're studying the underlying fundamentals

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<v Speaker 1>of the market, which frankly we think are pretty good.

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<v Speaker 1>So so, you know, as if there is an air

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<v Speaker 1>pocket here, if there is a dislocation over the course

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<v Speaker 1>of the next month or two, and you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>market gets flapped around and drops by, you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>fairly significant amount. And we still think the fundamentals are

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<v Speaker 1>good based upon the things the President Biden is doing,

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<v Speaker 1>and the rollout of the vaccine, and the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>the set is keeping interest rate to zero. All of

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<v Speaker 1>those things the things that truly matter. At that point

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<v Speaker 1>the decision maybe, well, let's let's throw to the log

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<v Speaker 1>on the fire here, expecting that stock prices will work

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<v Speaker 1>higher longer term. All right, so let's go a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit on the on the fundamentals here, get away from

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<v Speaker 1>the redditors. Earnings were about the third or the way through.

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<v Speaker 1>What are you seeing here. We're seeing a great earning season.

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<v Speaker 1>We're as you said, we're about forty of the way through. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>we are seeing The consensus expectation going into the quarter

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<v Speaker 1>was that earnings would be down something in the order

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<v Speaker 1>of about nine or ten percent on a year of

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<v Speaker 1>a year basis. So far, earnings are up. Three of

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<v Speaker 1>the companies that have already reported have beaten by an

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<v Speaker 1>average of seventeen and a half percent. That is the

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<v Speaker 1>third best beat rate in history, trailing only the second

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<v Speaker 1>quarter in the third quarter of last year. So the

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<v Speaker 1>earnings are coming in strong again, the vaccines rolling out,

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<v Speaker 1>the sets staying at zero, all of that suggests that

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<v Speaker 1>the underlying fundamentals for the market, the stuff that truly matters,

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<v Speaker 1>isn't pretty good shape. Hey Phil, thanks as always, always

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<v Speaker 1>appreciate getting your bullish call on the market. You've been

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely spot on. Uh So we'll see how the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of these earnings come through this quarter. Phil Orlando, chief

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<v Speaker 1>equity market strategist and head of client portfolio Management of

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<v Speaker 1>Federated Hermes. Uh they're based he is based in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City and eighty billion dollars in equities under management,

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<v Speaker 1>six fifteen billion firm wide, So Federated Hermes all over

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<v Speaker 1>the market. And Phil certainly has a great handle on

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<v Speaker 1>the market. And again, as I said, he's been consistently bullish,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, over the last couple of years, and he's

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<v Speaker 1>been absolutely spot on. Well, the trading activity we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>in a handful of stock starting last week with game

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<v Speaker 1>Stock Game Stop and then expanding to others really highlighted

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<v Speaker 1>a trading strategy of looking for stocks relatively small to

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<v Speaker 1>MidCap stocks with big short interest and jumping in on

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<v Speaker 1>those and creating a good old fashioned short squeeze. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the folks that's involved in in just kind of

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<v Speaker 1>the whole process of the data around short interests is

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<v Speaker 1>Bob Sloan, founder and managing partner of S three Partners

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<v Speaker 1>S three Partners of finance company that provides data analytics.

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<v Speaker 1>It's most used product is black app. It's the market

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<v Speaker 1>standard for real time short interests and securities finance for

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<v Speaker 1>about forty thousand security so clearly on top of that

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<v Speaker 1>short interest data. Bob, thanks so much for joining us here.

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<v Speaker 1>What did what did you make of last week? Your

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<v Speaker 1>company and you you've been involved in the this. We

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<v Speaker 1>may have lost Paul in the blizzard. It's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>to make us noment, but Bob, the general point is

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<v Speaker 1>well taken. So what did you make of last week? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we were seeing the markets change right in front of

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<v Speaker 1>our eyes. There's a new socially mobilized force and investing

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<v Speaker 1>and it has taken to targeting short sellers as its

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<v Speaker 1>investment strategy and opportunity for the time being. How many

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<v Speaker 1>times can this happen? So for example, this week it

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<v Speaker 1>seems to be silver, but it's a whole different bowl

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<v Speaker 1>game taking on something like silver then taking on a

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<v Speaker 1>stock like game stock. I think what we're seeing isn't

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<v Speaker 1>just an attack on institutions generally. Um. That's one of

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<v Speaker 1>the things I wrote in the piece UM that I

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<v Speaker 1>put up on on on our website, is that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the the attack on the capitol, Um, you're seeing an

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<v Speaker 1>attack on financial institutions, just just an attack on institutions generally.

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<v Speaker 1>And this has become the nexus of Reddit. Combined with

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<v Speaker 1>socially scaled activists, investing has become an attack on institutions.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is why they love Elon must so much.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, he's like, how can they love a billionaire

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<v Speaker 1>because he took on the short sellers in one It's

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<v Speaker 1>that simple for now, at least. I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>these stories are never over until they're over. But they

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<v Speaker 1>also embrace a lot of people that sort of say

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<v Speaker 1>the right thing but aren't necessarily doing the right thing.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, um, you know, he took he may have

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<v Speaker 1>taken all the short sellers, but in their own way,

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<v Speaker 1>the short sellers can flush out things like fraud and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, wrong valuations and stuff on Wall Street. So

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<v Speaker 1>why are short sellers in particular the bad guy? I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think that they are, you know, I obviously have

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<v Speaker 1>a very long history of understanding and defending the right

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<v Speaker 1>to have negative views expressed in the marketplace. There's no

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<v Speaker 1>marketplace unless there's two way price discovery, meaning, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it can't just be all up. It's like having a

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<v Speaker 1>democra see where you can only vote yes. That's not

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<v Speaker 1>a society, right. You have to be able to vote

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<v Speaker 1>no too. And so I think when you see these

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<v Speaker 1>things like on Meet the Press yesterday where Chuck Todd

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<v Speaker 1>is asking, you know, people from the White House, should

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<v Speaker 1>short selling be banned? You know, that's just kind of stupid.

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<v Speaker 1>That's just not how markets work. We need short selling

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<v Speaker 1>and we need that function to be in the marketplace

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<v Speaker 1>because otherwise when we want to get our money, when

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<v Speaker 1>we want our money, it's not going to be there.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's really vitally. Bob, you said a few minutes

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<v Speaker 1>ago that this is a populist revolution in financial markets,

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<v Speaker 1>and indeed, if you look at some of the language,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that's obviously what what some of the characteristics

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<v Speaker 1>of this sort of quote unquote revolution are but it

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<v Speaker 1>was a real revolution. Wouldn't these people be be targeting

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<v Speaker 1>long positions just as much as short positions? Well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think that, Um, the revolution is in

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<v Speaker 1>the use of the technology, and it's made them an

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<v Speaker 1>activist investor. So typically an activist would show up to

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<v Speaker 1>a company and say, you know, I own six percent

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<v Speaker 1>of the shares and you know, these are the things

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<v Speaker 1>I like the company to go do, and the company

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<v Speaker 1>would the other adopt a strategy not to do that,

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<v Speaker 1>or they generally would say, okay, you know, let's let's

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<v Speaker 1>fire people. And this is something much more basic. It's hey,

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<v Speaker 1>I like the popcorn at AMC. You know, I like

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<v Speaker 1>my flip phone. I like talking to my person at

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<v Speaker 1>game stuff. It's much more about a cultural thing, and

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<v Speaker 1>it just so happens to be. These stocks are all

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<v Speaker 1>more or less in one sector, consumer and retail, and

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<v Speaker 1>so this is why it's happening. Um, this cross current

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<v Speaker 1>between socially mobilized investing and short interest in this area. Hoop,

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<v Speaker 1>are you surprised that some big hedge funds really really

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<v Speaker 1>got hurt here? UM? Name me a risk model from

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<v Speaker 1>the Federal Reserve to any hedge fund in the world

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<v Speaker 1>that saw this as a risk. A good point. What

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<v Speaker 1>do you think is next year, Bobo, We're gonna see

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<v Speaker 1>more of this going forward, this combination of social media

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<v Speaker 1>and trading activity. It's a really it's a really sticky

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<v Speaker 1>question because the little person, as it were, and they're

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<v Speaker 1>not little people, and that's not you know, I'm just

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<v Speaker 1>saying the smaller investor is retail is now empowered with

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<v Speaker 1>something massively potent, and so how do you regulate that?

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<v Speaker 1>That is the sixty foll question. Yeah, this, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>as we just get news that Robin Hood had to

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<v Speaker 1>recapitalize itself once again. According to Dow Jones, it's taken

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<v Speaker 1>another more than two billion dollars to point four billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars from shareholders scaring requirements. Yeah, Vonnie, So that's a

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<v Speaker 1>great point. You know, one of the things that should

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<v Speaker 1>be examined here is what happened with that company in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of how they were handling margin, What were the

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<v Speaker 1>risk parameters that they had in place? Um as this

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<v Speaker 1>flow is happening. So that's certainly an area of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>rightful scrutiny. You're gonna have to promise come on again

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<v Speaker 1>very soon, because we want to keep our eye on

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<v Speaker 1>this story, or it'll keep its eye on us, for sure.

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<v Speaker 1>Bob Sloan as founder and managing partner at S three Partners,

0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:20.000
<v Speaker 1>And it's interesting listening to Bob Sloan just about you know,

0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:22.199
<v Speaker 1>short selling being a part of the market of Annie

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 1>and I think that's uh, I think what most people

0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:27.560
<v Speaker 1>tend to conclude, uh, you know, as they think about

0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:29.560
<v Speaker 1>short selling. We seem to have this discussion about short

0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:32.079
<v Speaker 1>selling every five or six years or so and whether

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.400
<v Speaker 1>it should be allowed in the marketplace. And I think

0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.000
<v Speaker 1>where we always come down as a marketplaces it is

0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.920
<v Speaker 1>a normal part of a healthy market. Although sometimes ago

0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:41.920
<v Speaker 1>I always thought the short sellers were the black sheep

0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>of the market. For the populace to jump on the

0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.760
<v Speaker 1>short seller is is it's it's a little ironic. I mean,

0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 1>I think it has something to do with GM as well. Yeah,

0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:54.839
<v Speaker 1>we'll have more on that coming up. This is Bloomberg. Well,

0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:57.880
<v Speaker 1>today is the first day of Black History Month. As

0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:01.840
<v Speaker 1>a country continues to struggle with how to address racial inequality,

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.200
<v Speaker 1>our next guest can discuss how individuals can support racial

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.120
<v Speaker 1>diversity with their investments joining us now is Marvin Owens.

0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.400
<v Speaker 1>It's the chief Engagement Officer at Impact Shares and a

0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 1>former Senior Director of Economic Development at the n double

0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:16.440
<v Speaker 1>A CP. Marvin, thanks so much for joining us here.

0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.160
<v Speaker 1>I love to start out with just getting a description

0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:23.840
<v Speaker 1>of what Impact Shares does. Hey, thanks for having me.

0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 1>It's good to be here. UH. Impact Shares It's is

0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:30.600
<v Speaker 1>a first of its kind nonprofit fund manager that really

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:35.640
<v Speaker 1>focuses on how you connect capital with social causes. We

0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:39.520
<v Speaker 1>are an engagement for where engagement platform where investors and

0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:43.720
<v Speaker 1>corporations and advocacy organizations have come together um to use

0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 1>capital to move the needle on social issues. So in

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.320
<v Speaker 1>the case of our current our current platform we have,

0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.000
<v Speaker 1>of course are in a CP fund which is The

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:56.280
<v Speaker 1>advocacy organization is the a c P. We have the

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:58.840
<v Speaker 1>w O MN and fund which is focused on gender

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 1>equity is UH Ethics. The organization is the y w

0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.600
<v Speaker 1>c A, and we're working with the u N on

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 1>our fund sd g A, which focuses on sustainable development goals,

0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:13.280
<v Speaker 1>all of which are our platforms that create an opportunity

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:15.680
<v Speaker 1>to kind of really move the needle on social issues

0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:19.359
<v Speaker 1>and using capital to really make that happen, which is fantastic.

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.800
<v Speaker 1>Let's start with n A c P, which is the

0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:24.840
<v Speaker 1>in fact shares a CP Minority Empowerment e t F.

0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 1>Right now, you have a hundred and seventy four holdings

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 1>in there, and the top one is Apple, followed by Microsoft.

0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:35.560
<v Speaker 1>What can you do in order to pressure Apple, Microsoft

0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.160
<v Speaker 1>and the other major companies like that that are you know,

0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.640
<v Speaker 1>just one four of the e t F to make

0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:45.880
<v Speaker 1>some positive changes. Well, here's the thing. I think that

0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.280
<v Speaker 1>in the current environment in which their number of companies

0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 1>that have come out and made some very explicit statements

0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:55.520
<v Speaker 1>of standing against racial discrimination and wanting to really engage

0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:59.240
<v Speaker 1>and change, UM, we now have this e t F

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:03.280
<v Speaker 1>which is another tool to really insent those kinds of changes.

0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:05.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, uh, this is really not just driven by

0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.160
<v Speaker 1>the advocacy community, but it really is being driven by

0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:11.480
<v Speaker 1>the investor community as well. UM. Investors really do want

0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 1>to see companies UM truly engaged in the kind of

0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:19.280
<v Speaker 1>social issues that reflective of of society within the society's

0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:22.280
<v Speaker 1>best interests. So when it comes to racial equity, UM,

0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.720
<v Speaker 1>now it's not just the advocacy community kind of voicing

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:28.600
<v Speaker 1>these concerns, but now it's also the investor communities pushing

0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 1>for these changes, which I think is going to help

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:36.360
<v Speaker 1>these corporations to move the needle. Marvin, the pandemic and

0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:40.560
<v Speaker 1>the economic fallout UM is really shown. I say, brighter light,

0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.240
<v Speaker 1>if you will, on the economic disparity in this country. Um,

0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 1>how are you kind of viewing that, how much of

0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 1>this potential damage to some of these minority communities might

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.960
<v Speaker 1>be a little bit more permanent than temporaries relates to

0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:57.080
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. Yeah, we're really concerned about that. You know,

0:16:57.120 --> 0:16:59.520
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of this pandemic, black workers have really

0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:03.160
<v Speaker 1>been impacted disproportionately, just like black workers have been impacted

0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:06.600
<v Speaker 1>by UM the infections of the disease itself. I think

0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:09.600
<v Speaker 1>it's important to note that black workers have lost a

0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:12.679
<v Speaker 1>disproportionate amount of jobs as well, and so we are

0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:16.879
<v Speaker 1>concerned about that because you add this COVID reality to

0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:21.280
<v Speaker 1>an already widening wealth gap and and and wage gap

0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.520
<v Speaker 1>that exists in this country, and you have been making

0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:27.679
<v Speaker 1>something that is more devastating and hopefully not permanent. But

0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:29.760
<v Speaker 1>I think there's some things we can do to change that,

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:31.879
<v Speaker 1>which means we really need to look at legislation that

0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.800
<v Speaker 1>really understands what these issues all about and really moves

0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.639
<v Speaker 1>the needle on making sure that we close some of

0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:40.439
<v Speaker 1>these gaps. I think there's a lot we can do

0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:44.240
<v Speaker 1>to gather them, and I'm encouraged by the current administration

0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.080
<v Speaker 1>which is making all the all the right moves and

0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:49.040
<v Speaker 1>saying the right things. We just need to make sure

0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:52.000
<v Speaker 1>that we are able to push to make sure the

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:56.240
<v Speaker 1>changes are really implemented policy wise, right exactly? How you know,

0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:59.040
<v Speaker 1>what do you like about the Widen racial Equity Plan,

0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.919
<v Speaker 1>Let's say, Marvin, I mean, what are the parts that

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:05.160
<v Speaker 1>we really need to make sure come to fruition. Well,

0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 1>I think, um, first of all, you have to just

0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of just kinda give them some some some recognition

0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:14.680
<v Speaker 1>for being able to even use the words like white supremacy,

0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.160
<v Speaker 1>which I don't think any other American president has really

0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:21.000
<v Speaker 1>used in an in an inauguration speech, which says a lot.

0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:22.920
<v Speaker 1>But I also think we've got to move the needle

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:26.160
<v Speaker 1>on making sure that these uh, these policies are really

0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:29.040
<v Speaker 1>focused on how do we really tap into the needs

0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:32.600
<v Speaker 1>of black business owners. UM. I like what they're what

0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.800
<v Speaker 1>they're saying in terms of everything wanting to UM target

0:18:36.359 --> 0:18:38.600
<v Speaker 1>uh communities of color and making sure that we're talking

0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:41.400
<v Speaker 1>about racial equity in terms of policy. But we've also

0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:45.240
<v Speaker 1>got to make sure that UM that we're utilizing black

0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:48.680
<v Speaker 1>fund managers, that we're utilizing black asset managers. We're looking

0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:50.760
<v Speaker 1>at how to make sure that we are using minority

0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:55.280
<v Speaker 1>depository institutions when we roll out these new COVID packages

0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:57.880
<v Speaker 1>and the COVID relief bills that are coming out. There's

0:18:57.880 --> 0:18:59.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot we can do to make sure that we

0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.720
<v Speaker 1>are really impacting the communities that need to help UM.

0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:07.240
<v Speaker 1>And I'm encouraged by what the the Biden administration is saying.

0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:09.320
<v Speaker 1>I just need to we just needed to make sure

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:14.000
<v Speaker 1>they're really following through on their promises. Marvin, If you

0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:19.760
<v Speaker 1>know our listeners want to maybe incorporate equality issues into

0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:21.600
<v Speaker 1>their investing, what's the best way to do it. Is

0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:22.720
<v Speaker 1>it to kind of look at the E s G

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:26.640
<v Speaker 1>scores and things like that. Yeah, it's been really important

0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.560
<v Speaker 1>for us to be able to talk about companies that

0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:32.320
<v Speaker 1>are that are really in our index. And I think

0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:34.760
<v Speaker 1>that as you look at companies not just in terms

0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:36.919
<v Speaker 1>of their returns, but also in terms of what they are,

0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:40.639
<v Speaker 1>how they're engaging in the broaderest society. It's important to

0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:43.400
<v Speaker 1>make sure that the investor community is looking at all

0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:46.199
<v Speaker 1>of this. And I think that you can go to

0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:49.360
<v Speaker 1>our website impact ets dot org and you can look

0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:52.000
<v Speaker 1>at our holdings. But I think an important thing to

0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:54.800
<v Speaker 1>do is to make sure that are these companies are

0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:58.200
<v Speaker 1>not just not just performing well, but they're also doing

0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:00.480
<v Speaker 1>what they what they should do around me. So so issues.

0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:03.960
<v Speaker 1>The truth in the matter is diversity helps with business.

0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:08.440
<v Speaker 1>I think more diverse companies tend to be better, better operators,

0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:11.040
<v Speaker 1>tend to be more profitable, tend to be folks who

0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:14.040
<v Speaker 1>do the right thing in larger ways. So um look

0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:15.600
<v Speaker 1>at our go to our website and you can check

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.960
<v Speaker 1>it out. Marvin, thank you for joining us today. Marvin

0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:22.720
<v Speaker 1>Owen's junior is Chief Engagement Officer Impact Shares, former senior

0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:25.480
<v Speaker 1>director of Economic Development. At the end, double a CP

0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:30.879
<v Speaker 1>green on the screen today and it looks like the

0:20:30.880 --> 0:20:34.560
<v Speaker 1>Reddit traders they've have expanded the scope of their buying,

0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:38.640
<v Speaker 1>moving on from individual equities to commodities such as silver

0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:41.200
<v Speaker 1>that SOB stuff about eight percent today trading just below

0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:43.680
<v Speaker 1>thirty dollars and ounce. Let's get a sense of what's

0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:47.040
<v Speaker 1>going on across markets. We talked to Katie Dreifeld, cross

0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:49.800
<v Speaker 1>asset reporter for Bloomberg News. Joining us on the phone

0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:53.359
<v Speaker 1>from New York Mike McLoone commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:56.639
<v Speaker 1>He follows the silver market closely. Katie, give us a

0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:58.119
<v Speaker 1>sense of kind of what you're seeing in the market here.

0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:00.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at some of those Reddit stocks last week,

0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:05.720
<v Speaker 1>some divergent performance there. Yeah, today is an interesting dynamic

0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:08.520
<v Speaker 1>where you have the broad indexes at least up so

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.080
<v Speaker 1>far about an hour into treating. But you're also seeing

0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.000
<v Speaker 1>some of those Reddit UH favorites, like you say, they're

0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:17.719
<v Speaker 1>higher to you a MC higher for example, even as

0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:20.240
<v Speaker 1>Game Stop takes a bit of a pause. But if

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:23.080
<v Speaker 1>you look at what is moving the broader indexes, I

0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:26.760
<v Speaker 1>mean it helps that you have Tesla, Amazon, Apple all

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:30.840
<v Speaker 1>higher today. That's dragging those benchmarks up and it might

0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:33.520
<v Speaker 1>be helping that if you look at the new short

0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:37.640
<v Speaker 1>interest that's out of UH partners such as S three

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:41.840
<v Speaker 1>Partners and I h S Market, you you can see

0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:45.280
<v Speaker 1>that short interest on game Stop has actually dropped a bit.

0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:49.400
<v Speaker 1>It's still relatively high. It's about thirty nine percent going

0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:52.399
<v Speaker 1>by I h SS numbers, but that was theorized to

0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:55.439
<v Speaker 1>have created a sort of the gross thing hedge funds

0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:58.520
<v Speaker 1>having to take down risks and bleeding into the broader markets.

0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:02.960
<v Speaker 1>It appears that that may be easing now, Mike, what

0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:05.479
<v Speaker 1>can happen in the silver market. I mean, it's it's

0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:08.199
<v Speaker 1>a bit more complicated, and there are various ways of

0:22:08.200 --> 0:22:11.080
<v Speaker 1>trading it, and also there's various ways of market making

0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:13.200
<v Speaker 1>in it that aren't the same as an individual stock.

0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:16.840
<v Speaker 1>What are these redators getting into and how are they

0:22:16.880 --> 0:22:20.400
<v Speaker 1>playing this particular trade? But hello, Vanni, I'm hearing they're

0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:23.280
<v Speaker 1>buying a lot of calls, most notably out of money calls.

0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:25.679
<v Speaker 1>But if the narrative plays out as Paul and I

0:22:25.720 --> 0:22:27.360
<v Speaker 1>know and from b I a lot of us are

0:22:27.400 --> 0:22:29.840
<v Speaker 1>ex traders. As an ex trader, I will tell them

0:22:29.880 --> 0:22:32.560
<v Speaker 1>what will probably happen is their cause will expire close

0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:35.640
<v Speaker 1>to near worthless, and then the market will go up.

0:22:35.680 --> 0:22:38.920
<v Speaker 1>Because this is a fundamentally bullish market that's very deep.

0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:42.320
<v Speaker 1>So there's a there's a Bloomberg terminal Um index that

0:22:42.359 --> 0:22:45.040
<v Speaker 1>I like. It's a total holdings of silver ets that's

0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:47.800
<v Speaker 1>a twenty four billion dollars And then you look at

0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:50.719
<v Speaker 1>open interests in futures that's just silver futures. That's twenty

0:22:50.720 --> 0:22:54.080
<v Speaker 1>six billion dollars. So that's just fifty billion dollars right there.

0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:57.240
<v Speaker 1>That doesn't even include the physical or a lot of

0:22:57.240 --> 0:22:59.919
<v Speaker 1>what other trading, so it's a massive market. The differences

0:23:00.040 --> 0:23:02.440
<v Speaker 1>this case is they just added a little bit, a

0:23:02.480 --> 0:23:05.679
<v Speaker 1>bit of a narrative to an already fundamentally bullish market.

0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:08.920
<v Speaker 1>And you know it's helping it for now. But good

0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:10.760
<v Speaker 1>luck with you by calls, because a lot of times

0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:12.439
<v Speaker 1>that's just a good way to mess up a good trade.

0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:17.640
<v Speaker 1>So what is the fundamental call on silver? Mic aside

0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:21.239
<v Speaker 1>from this short term reddit interest, I look at it,

0:23:21.240 --> 0:23:24.840
<v Speaker 1>it's a most likely most likely metal to match or

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:26.960
<v Speaker 1>to get to near it to make new highs maybe

0:23:27.000 --> 0:23:29.520
<v Speaker 1>this year, just doing what gold did. So that all

0:23:29.560 --> 0:23:31.720
<v Speaker 1>time high for silver's around fifth. Yes, it's kind of

0:23:31.720 --> 0:23:33.920
<v Speaker 1>far right now, but gold did that last year it

0:23:33.960 --> 0:23:36.080
<v Speaker 1>got up to over two thousand dollars. And there's this

0:23:36.160 --> 0:23:39.160
<v Speaker 1>gold silver ratio. It's silvered a little bit low versus

0:23:39.160 --> 0:23:41.520
<v Speaker 1>a twenty year average right now. But to me, it's

0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:43.679
<v Speaker 1>just a matter of time it gets there. It's just

0:23:43.720 --> 0:23:45.919
<v Speaker 1>a question how it does it. It might not happen

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:48.840
<v Speaker 1>this year, but fundamentally just very strong. Let's look at

0:23:48.880 --> 0:23:51.879
<v Speaker 1>the supply has been declining, most notably of South American. Now,

0:23:51.880 --> 0:23:54.240
<v Speaker 1>of course COVID helped reduce supply, but the big pictures

0:23:54.440 --> 0:23:56.800
<v Speaker 1>prices have been in a bear market for so long,

0:23:56.840 --> 0:23:58.360
<v Speaker 1>so there hasn't been a lot of sentim to bring

0:23:58.359 --> 0:24:00.560
<v Speaker 1>on the new supply. And then we have this massive

0:24:00.600 --> 0:24:04.360
<v Speaker 1>trend in electrification, in decarbonization. All that means a lot

0:24:04.359 --> 0:24:07.439
<v Speaker 1>of it is demand for metals, demand for silver and

0:24:07.520 --> 0:24:11.320
<v Speaker 1>not you know, and it's creating less less demand for

0:24:11.960 --> 0:24:15.359
<v Speaker 1>energy and fossil fuels. Yeah, Katie, have you been on

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:19.879
<v Speaker 1>the redded boards today? Are traders there? Those kinds of

0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:22.680
<v Speaker 1>traders saying that, you know, they're done with game Stop?

0:24:22.720 --> 0:24:25.960
<v Speaker 1>Does game stop even come up this week? That's going

0:24:26.040 --> 0:24:29.359
<v Speaker 1>to be interesting. I mean, there's also the nuance that

0:24:29.520 --> 0:24:32.399
<v Speaker 1>if you look at robin Hood for example, there's still

0:24:32.520 --> 0:24:36.840
<v Speaker 1>trading restrictions on eight stocks and GameStop for example, you

0:24:36.880 --> 0:24:39.639
<v Speaker 1>can only buy one shared a time right now, So

0:24:39.800 --> 0:24:43.359
<v Speaker 1>that has kind of cooled the uh, the mania around

0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:46.200
<v Speaker 1>game stop. I mean, if you spend time on Wall

0:24:46.280 --> 0:24:49.520
<v Speaker 1>Street sets, it's interesting you are seeing sort of fissures

0:24:49.600 --> 0:24:53.280
<v Speaker 1>emerge among the crowds as they latch onto this silver trade.

0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:55.879
<v Speaker 1>Some are pointing out that if you look at the

0:24:56.080 --> 0:24:59.000
<v Speaker 1>s l v EPF where which is it seems that

0:24:59.200 --> 0:25:02.240
<v Speaker 1>retail traders have been getting their exposure to silver through

0:25:02.280 --> 0:25:06.200
<v Speaker 1>ets like that. CNEL is the sixth largest holder there,

0:25:06.320 --> 0:25:09.480
<v Speaker 1>so that seems to be occupying the board rate. Now,

0:25:09.960 --> 0:25:12.240
<v Speaker 1>just this the date over. What are we doing when

0:25:12.280 --> 0:25:16.840
<v Speaker 1>it comes to the silver trade, Katie. What's the latest

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.480
<v Speaker 1>on the robin Hood and the other platforms getting pushed

0:25:19.480 --> 0:25:23.160
<v Speaker 1>back from kind of how they handle things last week? Well,

0:25:23.240 --> 0:25:25.440
<v Speaker 1>it's it's difficult. I mean, a lot of the heat

0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:27.800
<v Speaker 1>has come down on robin Hood, but you know, when

0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:31.040
<v Speaker 1>this started on Thursday, it was it was a wide

0:25:31.359 --> 0:25:35.399
<v Speaker 1>range of these retail platforms. Of course, the likes of

0:25:35.440 --> 0:25:39.720
<v Speaker 1>Interactive Broker has resolved those issues. Robin Hood continues to

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:42.440
<v Speaker 1>be a question mark, as we know by now they

0:25:42.480 --> 0:25:46.240
<v Speaker 1>they raised about one point five billion in additional capital.

0:25:46.640 --> 0:25:49.920
<v Speaker 1>It's gonna be interesting to see whether, you know, as

0:25:49.920 --> 0:25:52.720
<v Speaker 1>the likes of a MC continue to rally, game Stop

0:25:52.760 --> 0:25:55.040
<v Speaker 1>is fooling a bit, whether they run into the same

0:25:55.119 --> 0:25:57.679
<v Speaker 1>sorts of issues that they ran into last week. With

0:25:57.800 --> 0:26:01.560
<v Speaker 1>the clearinghouses, all right, you too. Thank you so much

0:26:01.720 --> 0:26:03.840
<v Speaker 1>for giving us up to date with what's happening this morning,

0:26:03.880 --> 0:26:08.000
<v Speaker 1>this Monday morning, that is Katie Greifeldt and Mike mcgloane,

0:26:08.080 --> 0:26:11.840
<v Speaker 1>Mike with Bloomberg Intelligence and Katie with Bloomberg Editorial, and

0:26:11.880 --> 0:26:14.560
<v Speaker 1>will continue to follow what happens throughout the day with

0:26:14.680 --> 0:26:19.880
<v Speaker 1>the memes, docks and silver in particular. Thanks for listening

0:26:19.920 --> 0:26:23.280
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to

0:26:23.359 --> 0:26:27.159
<v Speaker 1>interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

0:26:27.400 --> 0:26:30.399
<v Speaker 1>I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:33.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before

0:26:33.040 --> 0:26:35.880
<v Speaker 1>the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg

0:26:35.960 --> 0:26:36.200
<v Speaker 1>Radio