WEBVTT - Russia's Shifting Dynamic - August 15th, Hour 3 0:00:00.360 --> 0:00:03.960 Coming up next, our final News round Up and Information 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:08.080 Overload Hour. All right, just Round Up and Information Overload Hour. 0:00:08.160 --> 0:00:10.760 Toll free. Our number is eight hundred and nine point 0:00:10.800 --> 0:00:12.480 one Sean if you want to be a part of 0:00:12.520 --> 0:00:16.160 the program. We're in Anchorage. We're in Alaska. The summit 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:20.840 with President Trump Vladimir Putin. Since they arrived at a 0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:23.959 meet and greet has been at some point they've they've 0:00:23.960 --> 0:00:25.800 worked in a lunch here. We haven't gotten the full 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:31.760 breakout of everything and the individual meeting that has taking place, 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:37.239 a bunch of breakout sessions taking place, and at that 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:41.080 point is going to be probably immediately after this program, 0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:43.240 there's going to be a we don't know if it'll 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:44.720 be a joint pressor we don't know if it's just 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:48.120 going to be President Trump. At that minute, he probably 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:50.560 will come to me. I'm not sure if we're going 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:55.080 directly live on Fox or if it'll air at at 0:00:55.160 --> 0:00:57.880 nine o'clock. So it's it's going to be a pretty 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:01.720 busy day anyway. Thank you for being with us and 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:05.720 here to analyze the stakes. And we've been going through 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:10.399 every aspect of this. George Biebe is the director of 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:15.160 the Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft. Now, 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:18.120 he's spent more than two decades in government as an 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:24.320 intelligence analyst, diplomat policy advisor, including director of the CIA's 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:30.160 Russia Analysis and staff advisor on Russia matters to Vice 0:01:30.200 --> 0:01:33.959 President Cheney back in the day. Rebecca Conflors with US, 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:38.919 host of Censored but Not Silenced her podcast and former 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:46.640 strategic military intelligence analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency. Guys, 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:48.440 good to have you both. Thank you for being with us. 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:52.160 Rebecca will start with you. Now, I've gone through the 0:01:52.280 --> 0:01:55.400 lead up to today, and I can go over every 0:01:55.440 --> 0:02:01.320 aspect of it. You know, watching you know President Trump 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:05.480 coming into today, that Putin will face severe consequences if 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:10.040 Alaska fails to and the Ukrainian war. Now, well, no, 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:12.400 when in a very short period of time when I 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:15.800 interview President Trump and will air it on Fox, you 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:20.640 know how this all plays out. But certainly the President's strategy, 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:24.519 he's not hiding it is going to be to shut 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:28.040 off the spicket and tell countries you do business with Putin, 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:30.120 you're not doing business with us. And I think President 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:31.440 Trump wins that conflict. 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:36.880 So Sean, Unfortunately, I'm not very autimistic when it comes 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:41.640 to the achievement of President Trump's ultimate goal to stop 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:45.560 the bleeding in Ukraine. She is, why did you tasations 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:51.760 are irreconcilable at this point, And yes, you do have 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:57.160 some cards in terms of the secondary sanctions, but Putin's 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:03.359 economic concerns and She's concerns are two different things. Even 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:08.000 makes we place the thanks secondary sanctions on Russia. And 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:12.280 it's uncertain whether China or India are going to play 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:16.079 ball with us because their strategic calculations are based on 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:20.240 their natural interests, not on ours either. There has been 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:26.360 for decades and major purchaser of Russians armaments, not a person, 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:30.080 not just oil. China has been a strategic partner, not 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:34.480 the true partner, but to Russia. But so if those 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.960 two don't play balls, who you will continue the war? 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:43.680 Even if the sanctions bring some hearts of the Russian economy. Culturally, 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:48.680 the Russians are just so much more comfortable than Europeans 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:53.720 or Americans to tolerate casualty, to tolerate any kind of 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:58.520 economic shortages, and so decisions. Houselors is not going to 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:03.600 be impacted because the Ukraine issue is an existential issue 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:06.360 for him and for Russians. Ukraine very part of Russia 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:08.640 on which it relies. 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:12.040 Well, I want to be I want to be as 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.280 realistic as I can possibly be, and I don't want 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:19.599 to over promise on the deliver at some point if you, 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:21.880 for example, if you look at Ukraine last night, they 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:26.520 they bombed the living hell out of a Russian oil 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:31.640 refinery during last night strikes. Hundreds of Russian soldiers are 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:34.080 dying daily as a result of this war. Putin now 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:38.599 forcing prisoners, ethnic minorities, and migrants to fight on the 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:41.440 front line. So they've got their own problems, they got 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:45.160 their own economic problems. Russia's you know, there's an article 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:49.400 in Fortune magazine about their coming fiscal crunch. You've discussed 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:54.599 this in detail. On the other hand, you know, Russia 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:58.640 I think has the military advantage going into this, but 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.359 you know, on paper, I don't think anybody would have thought, 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:04.320 you know, three years later that Ukraine would still be 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.400 in the game and fighting as valiantly as they have 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:08.200 been able to fight. 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:15.120 Ukrainians have been fighting valiantly. There's no questions that, uh, 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:19.480 these guys are patriots, patriots, they are fast learners, but 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:24.200 they're in an untenable position Sean. But it's like Russia 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:28.320 is considered by the Pentagon itself as an und quote 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:33.479 anosier competitor. That means that is on par with the 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:36.400 Russia with the US military. And he asked a lot 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:41.080 of analysts, say, Russians camp fight, you know, how come 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.360 they haven't taken in Ukraine yet? But the Quessian way 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:48.240 of war and your fay of war completely different. So, uh, 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.839 Ukraine is running out of man it's running out of 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:58.200 munitions to the what we call the combat potential stands points, which. 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:00.360 Is can't but but they're not going to run out 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:05.039 of munitions now, I mean very very well. For first 0:06:05.040 --> 0:06:07.719 of all, a couple of things have happened Number one, 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:09.960 Number one, and we'll get George to way In on this. 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:15.360 Number one, The American mindset on all of this has 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:19.279 shifted and shifted rather dramatically. Is you know, the difference 0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:23.719 between giving what weapons to Ukraine and them buying in 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:26.800 the Ukrainians buying weapons, I think has gone over much 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:31.200 better with the American people. That's number one. Number two. 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:39.520 I think Europe you know, underestimated, underestimated Putin's commitment to this, 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:42.800 and they now realize that they have in many ways 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:46.960 made multiple mistakes. They have helped fund Putin's war machine, 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:50.440 but now too, Donald Trump has pressured them to double 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:54.960 their commitments to NATO, and the weaponry that will be 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:57.720 selling NATO can be then transferred over. So I think 0:06:57.760 --> 0:07:00.480 that's a big deal too. So I think a lot 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:04.359 of things have changed since you know this calculus, you 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:08.880 know as has shifted dramatically. Do you not agree, George, Well, yeah, 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:09.840 I do. 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.560 This is a situation though, where I'm a lot more 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:20.120 optimistic about something significant coming out of this meeting and 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:23.640 subsequent meetings to put this war on a path toward 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.800 resolution that I think most people are. And the reason 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:30.520 is because I don't believe that objectives and Trump's objectives 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:33.760 are fundamentally incompatible. In fact, I think there's a lot 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.120 of overlap between them, and I'll just list where I 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:39.440 think those are. Number One, Putin does not want Ukraine 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:42.160 to be in the Natal Alliance and he doesn't want 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:46.480 native forces on Ukrainian territory. Well, guess what neither of 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:50.400 his President Trump. He is not eager to undertake a 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:53.920 treaty commitment to go to war with Russia to defend Ukraine, 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:56.440 and neither were any of the other presidents in the 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.840 post Cold War period. We've worked ourselves in this situation. 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:03.760 We thought we could bring Ukraine into the Alliance, but 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.480 not actually have to go to where to send Ukraine, 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.080 and that was a mistake in our part. Trump wants 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:12.200 to fix that, and Putin is more than willing to 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:14.960 reach an agreement on that. So that's a big deal. 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:19.880 The second thing is President Trump does not want to 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:24.720 see Russian forces conquer all of Ukrainian territory. He wants 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:29.560 to stop their advances so that Ukraine emerges from this 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:34.600 with a great deal of territory and independence. Well so 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:38.719 does Putin. Putin recognizes that trying to conquer all of 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:42.559 Ukrainian territory is a trap for the Russian military. It 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:46.880 would require not just conquering the territory, but occupying and 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:50.840 governing it, and that would require an occupation for several 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:54.840 times the size of the entire Russian military and subject 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:59.760 those occupiers to ongoing guerrilla attacks forever. It would be 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:03.520 a trap. So that's another area where I think there's 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:07.960 basis for an understanding. Then the third thing is Putin 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:10.600 wants to be a great power in the world. He 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:13.439 doesn't want to be subordinate to China. He doesn't want 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:16.600 to be dependent on China's large gess. He wants to 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:19.720 stand up and have an ability to deal with the 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.680 West and with the East at the same time. Well 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:26.400 so does Trump. Trump looks at this and says, it's 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:30.400 not an America's interest to drive Russia and China together 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.880 to work against us. So all of those things I 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:38.240 think mean both Trump and Putin have a desire to 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:42.480 find a way forward here, and I expected out of 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:45.240 this with some significant achievements. 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.719 All right, quick break right back. We'll continue more with 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:51.520 Rebecca Kopfler and George Bieb on the other side. Than 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:54.600 your call is also coming up. We continue. We're in Anchorage. 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:58.440 We're in Alaska. The Trump Putin summit is underway. Full 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:01.440 coverage my interview with Trump to nine Eastern on the 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:04.920 Fox News Channel. All right, we continue with George bib 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:08.080 and Rebecca Kopfler. At the end of the day, there's 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.280 going to be landswaps, and it's got to be for 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:16.319 Ukraine's security guarantees. Not necessary, not necessarily NATO, but certainly 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.560 their relationship with the United States going forward between a 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:24.319 financial mineral deal and I would imagine the continued purchasing 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:26.840 of American weaponry is going to got to be part 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:28.520 of the deal. They've got to be able to stop 0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:33.120 a third invasion. Rebecca, I know you're less optimistic, but 0:10:33.280 --> 0:10:35.800 that's basically what the deal would have to end up 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:37.480 looking like. That's not what we're going to get out 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:40.760 of this summit. This this summit is to see are 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:43.520 you serious? Do you want to sit down at the table, 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.240 And if you do, we're going to move forward quickly 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:48.960 at my pace. If not yet, I'm out of here. 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:49.679 I'm done. 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:53.640 And that's and that's the crux of the matter. First, 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:58.880 agree with George that at this strategic level, at the 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:04.160 big picture, Russia and the United States, and especially Student 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:09.440 and Trunk are the same page. Right, But Trump is 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:15.079 probably the only person, perhaps in addition to JD. Van 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:18.959 who wants to see that happen. Trump is going to 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:23.400 be president for four years. Pudent is looking long term 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:28.160 human potential, will be president until twenty thirty six. Student 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:34.120 believes that it's only a temporary change the normal. The 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:38.360 baseline for the United States is an anti Russia posture. 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:42.800 The issue has been so politicized, sewn that you can 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:45.920 no longer like George and I. I'm listening to us 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:50.600 talking and the main stream media does not want these 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:55.679 kinds of talking points because they are very simplistic. Had 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:59.840 Lensky good, Russia bad? Like that's the level, but that's 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.240 well we are. It's an extremely complex issue, and I 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:07.320 believe the Deep States, the administrative, all of those people 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:13.000 who are in fact profiting from weapons deliveries to Ukraine. 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.120 I'm not going to let Trump to conclude that deal. 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:20.640 And the points to address on the weapons deliveries to Ukraine. 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.880 We have decluded our wrong weapons oxenal shanks to very 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:31.400 dangerous levels, javelin thingers, even patriots missiles, especially one hundred 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.880 and fifty five milimeter shells, because Ukraine has an extremely 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:38.839 high burn rate on the battlefield, a lot higher by 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:42.640 Western standards. Right, So that is exactly why she'd hands it, 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:46.960 tried to pause UH the deliveries of the military hardware 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:50.360 to Ukraine. But then person Trump reversus that decision. There's 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:56.800 a National Security Strategy Commission that has concluded that the 0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:02.839 United States has no capability to persecute what we call 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:07.200 a multi data war, which is a real UH threat 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:11.760 it's a tangible threat Russia, China, North Korea and Iran 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:17.640 potentially synchronizing operations or even so we just simply don't 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.800 have it. And Europeans are in the stained position. They 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.959 are what invasketball is depleted and we, by the way, 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:26.960 we have no capacity. We have no molt industrial capacity 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:30.840 UH to quickly scale up or it's proven he transition 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:34.040 is not in economy of wartime, putting seven years prior 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:36.600 to the invasions. That's why the Russians are pumping out 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:40.800 warm results in three months than entire Europe right now 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:45.240 is producing in one year. So that is the layer 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.439 of the land. I wish I could tell you give 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:50.880 me some optimism. I'm just trying to be realistic. 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:53.360 I agree with a lot of what both of you 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:57.400 are saying, and it's it's an interesting time. The one 0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:01.000 thing that you cannot deny is is no other world 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:04.920 leader that would even think about expending any political capital. 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:09.520 And this now would be the eighth peace deal president 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:13.520 Trump involved himself in. And I can't think of past 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.240 presidents that would be willing to go that hard, that 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:19.760 deep in the paint, you know, for actually something that 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.000 is not the biggest benefit to the United States, except 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:27.000 that the United States should be the country that wants 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.000 to stop killing around the world if he can, and 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:38.760 use its power to do so. India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran, Rwanda, Congo, Serbia, Cosavo, Thailand, Cambodia, Armenia, 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:43.920 as a Baijan, Egypt, Ethiopia. We'll see, I'll know. I'll 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:46.200 know in a little bit right after the show when 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:50.280 I interviewed President Trump. Don't forget, we'll be broadcasting might 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:53.320 we might even be on earlier than nine pm Eastern 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:57.760 And if we are, we'll send out a big social 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:01.240 media blast on it. Eight hundred nine, Shawn. We continue 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:05.200 from Anchorage a right twenty five now till the top 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:07.240 of the hour, eight hundred and nine to four one Sean. 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:08.680 If you want to be a part of the program. 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:13.240 We're in Anchorage. We're actually at Joint Joint Base Elmendorf. 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:17.360 I am near Putin right now, I'm near President Trump 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:22.000 right now. It was so weird my hotel filled with 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.600 all these Russian like agents. They must have dumped like 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.800 twelve truckloads of equipment. I mean, if there's pictures of 0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:32.200 me naked on the internet, you'll know why it's not 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:35.600 because I'm putting them out there. But it was so bizarre. 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:37.800 And then they're like coming up to me. They recognized me. 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.080 I forgot to tell you this, Linda, they recognize me, 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:45.440 and oh my gosh. They thought it was the biggest 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:47.360 interview they ever got. Said, how do you know me? 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:53.520 And I think one guy was that guy? The foreign minister. Yeah, 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:55.560 and he's trying to ask me a question. He doesn't 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:59.560 speak English. Oh no, So the woman reporter was asking, 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:02.640 and I was very blunt. I said, Trump doesn't have 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:04.200 a lot to gain from this. And by the way, 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:06.760 if you don't think for a second, you know, he'd 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:09.040 walk out of this meeting in two seconds. You don't 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:12.400 know Donald J. Trump, he will walk And then I 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.160 went on to I said, and she goes, what message 0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:18.240 you send for putin? Stop the killing? Stop the killing? 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:20.920 How many more? How many? I said, how many more 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:22.960 women and children have to die? How many more Russian 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:26.680 soldiers have to die? And so it's going to be 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:29.800 very interesting. President Trump tonight with me on on the 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:34.800 Fox News channel. Immediately after he does a short press conference, 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:35.880 So I'm not sure if it's going to be a 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:39.040 joint press conference. Nobody knows. I mean, this is very fluid. 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.520 And you know they've been in a breakout group now, 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:49.480 you know for a while, and you know, and we'll 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:50.480 just see what happens. 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:54.840 I'm sure they're having borshed and nice shots of vodka. 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:59.720 Vodka, vodka, vodka. And I did try my reindeer sausage 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:06.080 today just so I could get back at you. Listen, now, 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:08.199 the president in the lead up to today, let me 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:11.399 play him saying he hopes for this second meeting with Putin. 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:14.919 I mean, and this is the stupidity of listening to 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:18.800 European leaders and NATO leaders and they're so called leaders 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:21.760 because they couldn't they could never be in this position, 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:25.480 which frustrates me. You know, Donald Trump doesn't need lectures 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:29.040 from them on how to negotiate. But Donald Trump is 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.520 saying there will be no deal without Ukrainian and europe 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:37.520 Western European approval number one. And the purpose of today 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:41.760 is to get to a point where President Trump is 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:45.880 convinced this guy is willing to have a peace deal. 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:49.040 And if he is, he would very quickly like to 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:52.720 move to step two. Step two would be President Zelenski, 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:57.040 President Putin, Donald Trump and hopefully that's when you start 0:17:57.080 --> 0:18:00.520 talking about what is inevitable. Now, don't kill them, messenger, 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.640 because I talk about the inevitable. I'm telling you how 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:06.080 this is going to end. I've been doing, you know, 0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:09.080 radio since nineteen eighty seven. I could sit here and 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:10.720 lie to you and tell you I don't think I 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:12.760 have a very good idea how this is going to end. 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:16.159 But I'm telling you how it's going to end is 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:19.440 likely going to have to be given. Take on both sides. 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:23.080 For Ukraine, it's going to be landswaps. They're going to 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:27.399 lose territory. The Dunbas region, for example, in Ukraine is 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:30.600 eighty percent Russian national not a fact maybe a lot 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:34.080 of people want to dwell on, but it is reality. 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:37.080 So I'm giving you the reality of if you want 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:40.239 a deal that would actually result in peace in the 0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:43.840 continent of Europe, I'm giving you the reality of what 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:46.680 it ultimately is going to look like. Now you can 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:52.240 also game out if war continues, Ukraine will not really 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:55.680 exist as a country. Do I think that Russia can 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:59.320 win and conquer it? No, I don't. I think it 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:02.360 would take years and years and years. I don't even 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:05.920 think Putin is that stupid? I do think he's a thug, 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:08.760 a murderer and a dictator. And I don't think Zelensky's 0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:12.760 missed the perfect either. Although the Ukrainian people have fought valiantly. 0:19:13.200 --> 0:19:15.800 I think Putin. I was interviewed by some Russian as 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:19.760 I was going into my hotel media person and I 0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:22.159 just said, when is the death and dying going to stop? 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:25.120 Is it worth it? You couldn't have had a negotiated settlement, 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.160 and where was Joe Biden. Joe Biden created all of this. 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:33.399 Zelensky on his part rightly, so is going to want guarantees, 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:38.520 security guarantees and meaning he doesn't want a third invasion 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:42.080 for his country. If he's thinking long term, that would 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:44.280 be the first thing on my mind, and that would 0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:49.360 be non NATO security guarantees, which should be possible and 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:52.399 something that I think Donald Trump will have to work 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:55.760 with with Putin on nobody gets what they want in 0:19:55.880 --> 0:19:59.840 a deal, It just doesn't happen that way. Otherwise, let 0:19:59.880 --> 0:20:03.200 the war continue. That's your option. I wish there were 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:07.439 better options. They're not now. As for the president, if Putin, 0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:10.040 you know, in the end, by the end of today, 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:13.719 if this doesn't go well, we know what President Trump's 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:16.159 going to do. He said there will be severe consequences 0:20:16.160 --> 0:20:20.000 for Russia. We know what those consequences are. He's going 0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:23.679 to shut off that spickett, which is the Russian economy, 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:29.880 which is oil, as quickly as he possibly can. And 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:32.840 you know, the President's right too. This is a chess game, 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:37.479 and both sides, Russian and Ukraine, have been firing up 0:20:37.480 --> 0:20:40.200 to the last second leading into this. They think they're 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:44.879 getting some type of negotiation or a bargaining chip or 0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:48.600 some type of advantage. It's it's it's not what really, 0:20:48.720 --> 0:20:51.159 that's not going to be what the reality is. But 0:20:51.240 --> 0:20:54.680 we'll wait, we'll watch, we'll see. Let me play the 0:20:54.720 --> 0:20:58.320 President saying that he hopes for the second meeting, so 0:20:58.400 --> 0:21:02.040 everyone understands what the president goal is here, because if 0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:04.639 he walks out of here, oh he didn't get a 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:07.400 peace deal, that's not the purpose of what is going 0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:09.760 on here today. He's been very very clear about it. 0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:12.960 The purpose is to see if there is a path 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:18.359 that they can get to for that hard negotiation, which 0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:22.520 he wants to happen immediately thereafter. Listen, we have a 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:24.600 meeting with President Putin tomorrow. 0:21:25.119 --> 0:21:26.639 I think it's going to be a good meeting. But 0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:28.760 the more important meeting will be the second meeting that 0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:31.439 we're having. We're going to have a meeting with President Putin, 0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:35.119 President z Elynsky, myself, and maybe we'll bring some of 0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:36.280 the European. 0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:39.040 Leaders all maybe not. It's I don't know that. It's 0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:41.040 going to be very important. We're going to see what happens. 0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:46.040 And I think President Putin will make peace. I think 0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:48.040 President z Elynsky will make peace. 0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:50.480 We'll see if they can get along. All right, that's 0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:54.959 President Trump, you know, coming into today. The President also 0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:59.560 saying there will not be security guarantees in the form 0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:02.520 of as I just said, that's not going to be 0:22:03.040 --> 0:22:06.480 that those cards are not on the table. However, that 0:22:06.520 --> 0:22:11.359 doesn't mean European troops. That doesn't mean a deal with 0:22:11.440 --> 0:22:15.160 the United States to build up enough weaponry to serve 0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:18.400 as a deterrent. Uh, wouldn't be part of the deal. 0:22:18.520 --> 0:22:22.160 Here's what he said again, manage your expectations here. 0:22:22.640 --> 0:22:23.200 Just one thing. 0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:26.560 What about the possibity that is possibility of the United 0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:29.320 States providing security guarantees. 0:22:28.760 --> 0:22:32.439 To Ukraine, maybe along with Europe and other countries, not 0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:34.720 in the form of NATO, because that's not going to 0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:37.520 You know, there are certain things that aren't going to happen, 0:22:38.160 --> 0:22:41.440 but yeah, along with Europe, there's a possibility of those. 0:22:42.840 --> 0:22:47.760 Many were discussions today, mister president. Are the territorial swaps 0:22:47.880 --> 0:22:50.280 on the table? How will you be discussing that? 0:22:50.600 --> 0:22:52.840 They'll be discussed. But I've got to let Ukraine make 0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:56.320 that decision, and I think they'll make a proper decision. 0:22:56.800 --> 0:22:59.919 But I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine. I mean 0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:02.800 to get him at a table, and I think you 0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:06.600 have two sides. Look, Vladimir Putin wanted to take all 0:23:06.640 --> 0:23:09.600 of you grant. If I wasn't president, he would right 0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:12.240 now be taking all of you grant. But he's not 0:23:12.280 --> 0:23:12.880 going to do it. 0:23:13.800 --> 0:23:15.920 And so you know, we'll learn a lot more when 0:23:15.960 --> 0:23:20.040 I interviewed the President's it's coming up shortly, so when 0:23:20.080 --> 0:23:22.679 I see him, talk to him, interview him, I'll know 0:23:22.760 --> 0:23:26.480 a lot more. One thing before I get your calls here, 0:23:26.520 --> 0:23:28.840 I want to I did have an important interview last 0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:32.360 night with the FBI Director Cash Patel. And remember we've 0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:36.320 been following all of the declassification by both Tulca Gabbard, 0:23:36.920 --> 0:23:41.760 John Ratcliffe, all the breaking news of John Solomon, and 0:23:42.520 --> 0:23:46.320 you know, Cash Patel is this burn these burn bags 0:23:46.359 --> 0:23:50.159 inside the FBI and hard drives from predecessors involved with 0:23:50.240 --> 0:23:54.200 Russia Gate. And it's clear that the evidence is becoming 0:23:54.240 --> 0:24:00.200 overwhelming and incontrovertible. And that's why Pam Bondi now has 0:24:00.240 --> 0:24:02.520 and she was on last night, and that's why she 0:24:03.040 --> 0:24:09.160 now has herself created a grand jury. Again, she can't 0:24:09.160 --> 0:24:12.880 confirm that, but here's what Cash said about what they've 0:24:12.920 --> 0:24:16.080 been able to find. Remember he was Devin Nunaz's chief 0:24:16.119 --> 0:24:18.240 of staff. If you think I know a lot about 0:24:18.359 --> 0:24:20.960 Trump Russia collusion because we covered it for three years, 0:24:21.320 --> 0:24:23.919 trust me, he knows everything I know and more. Listen. 0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:26.600 But sadly, we found a room locked away in the 0:24:26.600 --> 0:24:29.920 Hoover building that contained burn bags. And just for your audience, Sean, 0:24:30.160 --> 0:24:33.840 a burn bag is a government bag that is specifically 0:24:34.000 --> 0:24:39.000 created to destroy classified evidence and shred and burn it, 0:24:39.400 --> 0:24:42.760