1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:24,236 Speaker 1: Pushkin. One of the biggest, wildest dreams in technology is 2 00:00:24,356 --> 00:00:29,476 Speaker 1: nuclear fusion, smashing atomic nuclei together in order to make energy. 3 00:00:30,036 --> 00:00:32,436 Speaker 1: And just to be clear, fusion is different than fission, 4 00:00:32,676 --> 00:00:36,036 Speaker 1: different than splitting nuclei, which is the way nuclear power 5 00:00:36,076 --> 00:00:40,476 Speaker 1: works now. Fusion has the promise of being an incredibly cheap, 6 00:00:40,596 --> 00:00:44,436 Speaker 1: abundant source of energy without some of the risks associated 7 00:00:44,476 --> 00:00:48,476 Speaker 1: with fission, like, for example, nuclear meltdowns. As you'll hear 8 00:00:48,476 --> 00:00:51,356 Speaker 1: in a minute, fusion could profoundly change the world for 9 00:00:51,396 --> 00:00:55,356 Speaker 1: the better. But crucially, nobody has figured out how to 10 00:00:55,476 --> 00:00:59,476 Speaker 1: do nuclear fusion in a practical economic way. A bunch 11 00:00:59,516 --> 00:01:02,316 Speaker 1: of companies are working on it, and Google and Microsoft, 12 00:01:02,356 --> 00:01:05,436 Speaker 1: among others, have promised to buy fusion power from these 13 00:01:05,436 --> 00:01:08,796 Speaker 1: companies if they figure out how to deliver it. So 14 00:01:09,356 --> 00:01:12,316 Speaker 1: the stakes are high. The money is flowing in, but 15 00:01:12,356 --> 00:01:15,236 Speaker 1: it's still unclear if or when fusion will work to 16 00:01:15,316 --> 00:01:30,276 Speaker 1: deliver power at scale. I'm Jacob Goldstein, and this is 17 00:01:30,276 --> 00:01:33,236 Speaker 1: what's your problem. I recently went to south By Southwest 18 00:01:33,556 --> 00:01:38,116 Speaker 1: to host a conversation about fusion with an analyst, an investor, 19 00:01:38,396 --> 00:01:41,236 Speaker 1: and a guy who runs a fusion company. It was 20 00:01:41,276 --> 00:01:44,676 Speaker 1: billed as the Great fusion debate, how far away are 21 00:01:44,716 --> 00:01:48,116 Speaker 1: we really? And as you'll hear, we talked about the 22 00:01:48,156 --> 00:01:51,756 Speaker 1: promise of fusion and what it'll take to realize that promise, 23 00:01:52,156 --> 00:01:54,836 Speaker 1: and we also talked about how the AI boom and 24 00:01:54,876 --> 00:01:57,596 Speaker 1: the related demand for more and more power is shaping 25 00:01:57,636 --> 00:02:02,236 Speaker 1: the industry. Also, interestingly, why having a ton of money 26 00:02:02,236 --> 00:02:05,356 Speaker 1: flowing into the industry is not necessarily a good thing. 27 00:02:06,076 --> 00:02:09,076 Speaker 1: Here's the conversation. So I want to make the case 28 00:02:10,396 --> 00:02:13,916 Speaker 1: that the fusion industry is a testament to twenty first 29 00:02:13,956 --> 00:02:19,396 Speaker 1: century capitalism. Capitalists have put more than ten billion dollars 30 00:02:19,476 --> 00:02:23,796 Speaker 1: into fusion companies, something like four billion last year. And 31 00:02:23,836 --> 00:02:26,396 Speaker 1: the amazing thing is most of those companies are probably 32 00:02:26,436 --> 00:02:29,636 Speaker 1: going to fail, and most of the ones that succeed, 33 00:02:29,676 --> 00:02:32,676 Speaker 1: if they do succeed, won't make a profit for many years. 34 00:02:32,916 --> 00:02:35,836 Speaker 1: So this is an incredible bet and it's not just 35 00:02:36,356 --> 00:02:40,956 Speaker 1: sort of gambling slash speculation. Right. If it works, it'll 36 00:02:40,996 --> 00:02:45,516 Speaker 1: be great. It'll be the abundant, cheap energy we've been 37 00:02:45,596 --> 00:02:48,996 Speaker 1: dreaming of for years. So the question that we're going 38 00:02:49,076 --> 00:02:52,276 Speaker 1: to try and answer today is is it going to work? 39 00:02:52,516 --> 00:02:54,436 Speaker 1: And when will it work? And what do we mean 40 00:02:54,476 --> 00:02:59,036 Speaker 1: by work? Fortunately, we have some of the smartest, most 41 00:02:59,076 --> 00:03:02,596 Speaker 1: knowledgeable people in the world on this question right here 42 00:03:03,716 --> 00:03:05,756 Speaker 1: to try and help us answer it. Can you guys 43 00:03:05,796 --> 00:03:08,596 Speaker 1: just briefly introduce yourselves. Say your name and your job 44 00:03:08,596 --> 00:03:11,876 Speaker 1: as we say podcasts. Yep, I'm Luke. 45 00:03:12,116 --> 00:03:13,836 Speaker 2: I work for a company called Baylor Giftwood, which is 46 00:03:13,876 --> 00:03:15,436 Speaker 2: an institutional asset manager. 47 00:03:17,156 --> 00:03:17,356 Speaker 3: Hi. 48 00:03:17,396 --> 00:03:24,036 Speaker 4: I'm Melanie Windridge. I'm complicated. I'm the founder of Fusion 49 00:03:24,116 --> 00:03:26,796 Speaker 4: Energy Insights. We keep people up to date with developments 50 00:03:27,276 --> 00:03:31,036 Speaker 4: in the fusion industry. Also the co founder of Fusion X, 51 00:03:31,356 --> 00:03:34,956 Speaker 4: which runs Fusion x invest conferences brings together capital and 52 00:03:34,996 --> 00:03:39,036 Speaker 4: the opportunity in fusion, and the founder of Fusion Advisory Services. 53 00:03:39,076 --> 00:03:42,396 Speaker 4: We help people make decisions in the fusion industry, so 54 00:03:42,436 --> 00:03:45,316 Speaker 4: we provide information basically all of those. I provide information 55 00:03:45,436 --> 00:03:47,636 Speaker 4: to people who need to know about fusion to help 56 00:03:47,676 --> 00:03:48,676 Speaker 4: them make better decisions. 57 00:03:49,756 --> 00:03:50,676 Speaker 5: I'm Greg Paifer. 58 00:03:50,676 --> 00:03:53,356 Speaker 6: I'm the founder and CEO of a company called Shine Technologies. 59 00:03:53,396 --> 00:03:56,996 Speaker 6: We are one of said companies. Of course, we expect 60 00:03:57,036 --> 00:03:59,436 Speaker 6: to succeed, as that is all of them that I'm 61 00:03:59,476 --> 00:04:01,756 Speaker 6: sure do. But we're taking a little bit of a 62 00:04:01,756 --> 00:04:05,596 Speaker 6: different approach to fusion, which is we've actually identified commercial 63 00:04:05,636 --> 00:04:09,116 Speaker 6: applications of the technology today where these can really meaning 64 00:04:09,156 --> 00:04:12,316 Speaker 6: fully impact lives and improve the world, and are using 65 00:04:12,316 --> 00:04:15,476 Speaker 6: that as a path to practice and make fusion cheaper 66 00:04:15,636 --> 00:04:16,116 Speaker 6: over time. 67 00:04:16,516 --> 00:04:18,876 Speaker 1: So just to start, we'll get into the details in 68 00:04:18,916 --> 00:04:21,356 Speaker 1: a sec but just to start, give me the dream, like, 69 00:04:21,396 --> 00:04:24,116 Speaker 1: give me the long term. Why will it be amazing 70 00:04:24,196 --> 00:04:27,796 Speaker 1: if this works capital w in a big way? 71 00:04:27,916 --> 00:04:29,476 Speaker 6: Yeah, So I think you know a lot of people 72 00:04:29,476 --> 00:04:31,796 Speaker 6: are focused on the human energy needs over the next 73 00:04:31,836 --> 00:04:33,756 Speaker 6: ten or twenty years, but that's not what makes fusion 74 00:04:33,796 --> 00:04:39,156 Speaker 6: interesting to me. Fusion is fundamentally has the access to 75 00:04:39,196 --> 00:04:41,156 Speaker 6: fuel is unlimited, is a way to think about it. 76 00:04:41,196 --> 00:04:44,996 Speaker 6: So as this technology becomes cost effective and we get 77 00:04:44,996 --> 00:04:46,716 Speaker 6: better and better and better at it over time, the 78 00:04:46,756 --> 00:04:52,396 Speaker 6: cost will continue to drop as technological sophistication continues to improve, 79 00:04:52,836 --> 00:04:57,796 Speaker 6: and with no fundamental ceiling set by the availability of 80 00:04:57,876 --> 00:05:00,836 Speaker 6: raw materials, fusion is going to move humans into this 81 00:05:00,916 --> 00:05:03,596 Speaker 6: world where we can access energy at ten one hundred 82 00:05:03,596 --> 00:05:07,956 Speaker 6: one thousand, a million times more at a low cost 83 00:05:08,596 --> 00:05:11,076 Speaker 6: then we can today. And that's what's really exciting to 84 00:05:11,076 --> 00:05:15,036 Speaker 6: me about fusion. It's not just like can we decarbonize today? 85 00:05:15,076 --> 00:05:18,156 Speaker 6: Can we meet the needs of AI. But what is 86 00:05:18,196 --> 00:05:19,956 Speaker 6: it going to do to society? I think it's very 87 00:05:19,996 --> 00:05:23,996 Speaker 6: akin to when the microchip first entered the market, right 88 00:05:24,036 --> 00:05:27,196 Speaker 6: like in the nineteen sixties, we had no idea how 89 00:05:27,236 --> 00:05:30,916 Speaker 6: that was going to transform society, the computational power that 90 00:05:30,916 --> 00:05:33,436 Speaker 6: that would lead to, and it was an industry where 91 00:05:33,476 --> 00:05:37,836 Speaker 6: we've seen literally trillions of times of increased cost performance 92 00:05:38,356 --> 00:05:42,756 Speaker 6: over the last seventy years. Fusion has that potential, and 93 00:05:43,196 --> 00:05:45,356 Speaker 6: so as we think about what humans can do long term, 94 00:05:45,396 --> 00:05:48,556 Speaker 6: the sort of problems we can solve with access to 95 00:05:48,636 --> 00:05:50,916 Speaker 6: energy on that scale, that's really the most exciting thing 96 00:05:50,916 --> 00:05:51,916 Speaker 6: about it, and it's coming. 97 00:05:52,116 --> 00:05:55,796 Speaker 1: I mean one example, that's just an example, free unlimited energy. 98 00:05:56,436 --> 00:05:58,196 Speaker 1: I know, we don't know what we'll do with it. 99 00:05:58,316 --> 00:06:01,596 Speaker 1: You couldn't have guessed iPhone or AI seventy years. You 100 00:06:01,636 --> 00:06:04,596 Speaker 1: might have guessed AI actually, and you might have guessed iPhone. 101 00:06:04,636 --> 00:06:07,556 Speaker 1: So guess what would we do in seventy years with 102 00:06:07,596 --> 00:06:08,956 Speaker 1: free unlimited energy. 103 00:06:09,116 --> 00:06:11,716 Speaker 6: I mean, it's you can go anywhere from the super 104 00:06:11,756 --> 00:06:15,436 Speaker 6: practical today of like we would have unlimited clean water, right, 105 00:06:15,676 --> 00:06:19,076 Speaker 6: you can separate salt from water for free. If energy 106 00:06:19,116 --> 00:06:21,796 Speaker 6: is cheap, you can pull carbon out of the atmosphere 107 00:06:22,556 --> 00:06:26,476 Speaker 6: for free almost, you know, so this is super practical 108 00:06:26,516 --> 00:06:28,036 Speaker 6: like other you know, if you want to let the 109 00:06:28,076 --> 00:06:31,916 Speaker 6: imagination wander, we can cut trip times to other planets, 110 00:06:32,356 --> 00:06:36,076 Speaker 6: you know, from from years or many many months down 111 00:06:36,116 --> 00:06:40,476 Speaker 6: to weeks, right, and so there are ways to expand 112 00:06:40,676 --> 00:06:43,676 Speaker 6: you know, it's like you can let the imagination go 113 00:06:43,796 --> 00:06:46,476 Speaker 6: on some of these things. But fundamentally, I think you're 114 00:06:46,516 --> 00:06:52,436 Speaker 6: looking at a path out of energy poverty for the 115 00:06:52,476 --> 00:06:55,836 Speaker 6: eight billion of us that don't have access today. You're 116 00:06:55,876 --> 00:06:58,116 Speaker 6: looking at being able to solve some of these major problems, 117 00:06:58,156 --> 00:07:01,356 Speaker 6: and then you're looking at like unlocking things that we 118 00:07:01,436 --> 00:07:03,476 Speaker 6: just can't even imagine. 119 00:07:03,636 --> 00:07:06,156 Speaker 1: Yeah today, Right, Okay, so that's the dream. Now let's 120 00:07:06,556 --> 00:07:08,596 Speaker 1: spend a long time talking about why it's hard and 121 00:07:08,636 --> 00:07:10,516 Speaker 1: what we have to figure out to get there, and 122 00:07:10,596 --> 00:07:14,116 Speaker 1: maybe more concretely, like let's try and put a put 123 00:07:14,116 --> 00:07:17,796 Speaker 1: a steak in the ground. When's it going to happen? 124 00:07:17,836 --> 00:07:21,556 Speaker 1: And not when's that going to happen, but like let's 125 00:07:21,556 --> 00:07:26,516 Speaker 1: start with when will there be uh fusion power on 126 00:07:26,596 --> 00:07:30,276 Speaker 1: the grid. When will somebody's house get uh, you know, 127 00:07:30,436 --> 00:07:31,676 Speaker 1: electricity from fusion? 128 00:07:32,116 --> 00:07:35,036 Speaker 5: Do you mean making money selling it? Or just like 129 00:07:35,356 --> 00:07:36,396 Speaker 5: what's electical proof. 130 00:07:36,916 --> 00:07:39,756 Speaker 1: Technical proof sounds a little small, like I feel like 131 00:07:39,876 --> 00:07:42,956 Speaker 1: a real power plant, that's for real, that's economic. Yeah, 132 00:07:42,996 --> 00:07:49,276 Speaker 1: that's economic. So Melanie, you want to you want to 133 00:07:49,396 --> 00:07:51,996 Speaker 1: just put a flag in the ground. 134 00:07:53,076 --> 00:07:53,636 Speaker 3: Goodness. 135 00:07:55,156 --> 00:07:57,716 Speaker 4: So if I were, no, actually I don't want to. 136 00:08:00,316 --> 00:08:02,956 Speaker 4: It's I'll tell you a couple of reasons why. It's 137 00:08:02,996 --> 00:08:07,156 Speaker 4: a really really hard question. Yeah, And of course it's 138 00:08:07,196 --> 00:08:10,476 Speaker 4: the it's the question. Right when people talk about fusion, 139 00:08:10,556 --> 00:08:12,636 Speaker 4: or you asking about fusion, the first thing they say, well, 140 00:08:12,676 --> 00:08:14,156 Speaker 4: the two the two questions they want to know the 141 00:08:14,156 --> 00:08:15,956 Speaker 4: answer to, when are we gonna have it? 142 00:08:16,076 --> 00:08:16,876 Speaker 3: What's it gonna cost? 143 00:08:17,036 --> 00:08:17,276 Speaker 1: Yeah? 144 00:08:17,596 --> 00:08:19,236 Speaker 3: I get it. Those are really good questions. 145 00:08:20,316 --> 00:08:24,796 Speaker 4: But first thing is it's still kind of an exploration 146 00:08:25,516 --> 00:08:29,676 Speaker 4: and so it's very difficult to make predictions of exactly 147 00:08:29,716 --> 00:08:31,916 Speaker 4: what's gonna happen and when they're going to happen. 148 00:08:31,956 --> 00:08:33,676 Speaker 3: So that's difficult for the timescale thing. 149 00:08:34,036 --> 00:08:37,076 Speaker 4: But also there are a lot of things feeding into it, 150 00:08:37,116 --> 00:08:39,516 Speaker 4: a lot of moving pieces. It's not just a science 151 00:08:39,516 --> 00:08:43,316 Speaker 4: and actually we're moving infusion from this like science phase, 152 00:08:43,356 --> 00:08:45,596 Speaker 4: if you like, into an engineering phase. We need to 153 00:08:46,636 --> 00:08:48,516 Speaker 4: be able to build fusion power plants. 154 00:08:48,556 --> 00:08:51,716 Speaker 3: We've there have been demonstrations. 155 00:08:51,716 --> 00:08:54,196 Speaker 4: You can say there was a famous breakthrough, if you like, 156 00:08:54,236 --> 00:08:56,956 Speaker 4: in our field demonstration in twenty twenty two when the 157 00:08:57,036 --> 00:09:00,436 Speaker 4: National Ignition Facility UH, which has a laser experiment, got 158 00:09:00,436 --> 00:09:04,236 Speaker 4: more energy out of fusion reactions than it put in 159 00:09:04,276 --> 00:09:06,836 Speaker 4: to make them happen UH. And that's big because fusion 160 00:09:06,876 --> 00:09:10,156 Speaker 4: happens in stars. You need to have really extreme conditions, 161 00:09:10,196 --> 00:09:12,636 Speaker 4: stellar conditions hundreds of millions of degrees like to make 162 00:09:12,676 --> 00:09:15,436 Speaker 4: fusion happen. So we've had that sort of scientific breakthrough. 163 00:09:15,676 --> 00:09:17,196 Speaker 4: But now if you move into what it takes to 164 00:09:17,196 --> 00:09:20,796 Speaker 4: actually build a power plant and as Greg said, one 165 00:09:20,796 --> 00:09:27,076 Speaker 4: that's economic that's going to last for decades within despite 166 00:09:27,116 --> 00:09:29,796 Speaker 4: these extreme conditions, like that's a big thing. That's where 167 00:09:29,796 --> 00:09:32,636 Speaker 4: most of the challenges lie. Now, then you've also got 168 00:09:32,676 --> 00:09:36,556 Speaker 4: to be able to pay for it. Who's going to 169 00:09:36,596 --> 00:09:38,556 Speaker 4: pay for it. There's a lot of investment going into 170 00:09:38,596 --> 00:09:44,676 Speaker 4: fusion now and Fusion already has four customers Google, Microsoft, Areki, 171 00:09:45,516 --> 00:09:51,556 Speaker 4: a supermarket chain in Japan, in any energy company, so 172 00:09:52,036 --> 00:09:55,196 Speaker 4: there are people willing to pay for it. And regulation 173 00:09:55,276 --> 00:09:56,876 Speaker 4: you have to be able to regulate it. But anyway, 174 00:09:56,916 --> 00:10:00,076 Speaker 4: all of these moving pieces are coming in to the 175 00:10:00,116 --> 00:10:03,316 Speaker 4: determination of when this is going to happen. So if 176 00:10:03,356 --> 00:10:06,916 Speaker 4: you want to have some idea of time skills I 177 00:10:06,996 --> 00:10:09,716 Speaker 4: mentioned the lab, the National Lab getting more energy out, 178 00:10:09,716 --> 00:10:12,636 Speaker 4: then in private companies need to do that. There's a 179 00:10:12,716 --> 00:10:16,756 Speaker 4: number of private companies working on fusion. Estimates are that 180 00:10:17,436 --> 00:10:19,556 Speaker 4: this decade, the rest of this decade, so before twenty 181 00:10:19,596 --> 00:10:22,276 Speaker 4: thirty they're going to be proving out the technology required 182 00:10:22,556 --> 00:10:24,516 Speaker 4: to get to that energy break even point. 183 00:10:25,516 --> 00:10:27,356 Speaker 3: Maybe by twenty thirty twenty. 184 00:10:27,076 --> 00:10:30,036 Speaker 4: Thirty two we might see energy break even private companies. 185 00:10:30,996 --> 00:10:33,956 Speaker 4: If you think about let's say, assume four years, if 186 00:10:33,956 --> 00:10:38,476 Speaker 4: that's optimistic, maybe for building regulating, maybe you get electricity 187 00:10:38,676 --> 00:10:41,316 Speaker 4: first electricity, let's say by twenty thirty six. 188 00:10:42,036 --> 00:10:42,516 Speaker 3: Everything. 189 00:10:42,876 --> 00:10:45,596 Speaker 4: In my experience of doing kind of hard things, everything 190 00:10:45,596 --> 00:10:47,916 Speaker 4: takes longer than you think it will. But when you're 191 00:10:47,956 --> 00:10:51,196 Speaker 4: looking back, it happens faster than it seems like it was. 192 00:10:51,516 --> 00:10:52,556 Speaker 3: A child really fast. 193 00:10:52,716 --> 00:10:55,876 Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, really well, it seems really fast looking back. 194 00:10:56,236 --> 00:10:59,476 Speaker 4: So I would say that for the public, when fusion happens, 195 00:10:59,556 --> 00:11:00,796 Speaker 4: it's going to just come out of nowhere. 196 00:11:00,876 --> 00:11:02,636 Speaker 3: Probably they probably won't realize. 197 00:11:03,156 --> 00:11:05,636 Speaker 4: Meanwhile, there's been lots of work going on in the background, 198 00:11:05,956 --> 00:11:10,956 Speaker 4: but now is the time when companies are getting involved. 199 00:11:11,076 --> 00:11:14,236 Speaker 4: The people are positioning themselves. Governments are positioning themselves, companies 200 00:11:14,276 --> 00:11:17,836 Speaker 4: are positioning themselves. Supply chains are positioning themselves because now 201 00:11:17,916 --> 00:11:20,076 Speaker 4: is the time when those people who are going to 202 00:11:20,156 --> 00:11:23,676 Speaker 4: actually benefit from fusion as and make their fortunes from fusion. 203 00:11:24,156 --> 00:11:26,636 Speaker 4: Now is the time that they are jostling for position. 204 00:11:27,276 --> 00:11:31,356 Speaker 1: The perfect setup for Luke make their fortune version Luke, 205 00:11:31,436 --> 00:11:36,236 Speaker 1: you have an investment in fusion right into Gregg's company, 206 00:11:36,276 --> 00:11:40,356 Speaker 1: we should say, why do you do it? 207 00:11:40,356 --> 00:11:43,036 Speaker 2: It's partly a nod to the challenges which Melanie talks about. 208 00:11:43,396 --> 00:11:45,956 Speaker 2: I think we've demonstrated that it's possible to do fusion. 209 00:11:45,996 --> 00:11:48,476 Speaker 2: The question is now is it practical and then is 210 00:11:48,476 --> 00:11:51,236 Speaker 2: it profitable at the end of it? And to get 211 00:11:51,276 --> 00:11:53,996 Speaker 2: through those kind of three stages of scientific, engineering and 212 00:11:53,996 --> 00:11:56,796 Speaker 2: commercial break even is going to require a lot more 213 00:11:56,796 --> 00:11:59,996 Speaker 2: capital than has been required to date, I would argue 214 00:12:00,116 --> 00:12:02,636 Speaker 2: in the fusion industry to get there, And that's a 215 00:12:02,676 --> 00:12:05,356 Speaker 2: really big challenge for investors when you say, the path 216 00:12:05,396 --> 00:12:08,196 Speaker 2: to de risking something gets more expensive as it gets 217 00:12:08,236 --> 00:12:12,596 Speaker 2: closer than the finished life less and so the industry 218 00:12:12,676 --> 00:12:14,996 Speaker 2: as it's been led to date in its current form 219 00:12:15,036 --> 00:12:18,476 Speaker 2: I guess by government, by academia, etc. Has not been 220 00:12:18,516 --> 00:12:21,876 Speaker 2: the best advert for investors looking into Fusion to say that, oh, 221 00:12:21,916 --> 00:12:24,156 Speaker 2: this can be profitable and this can be a high 222 00:12:24,236 --> 00:12:27,916 Speaker 2: returning pursuit within the time frame that clients have. So 223 00:12:28,476 --> 00:12:30,116 Speaker 2: we're quite lucky and that our clients have got a 224 00:12:30,116 --> 00:12:33,236 Speaker 2: long term time horizon of five to ten years. Ten 225 00:12:33,316 --> 00:12:36,676 Speaker 2: years is probably about stretching it in the public markets, 226 00:12:36,756 --> 00:12:38,596 Speaker 2: or even in the private market ten years. 227 00:12:38,596 --> 00:12:41,236 Speaker 1: It sounds like it's stretching it for Fusion, which is 228 00:12:41,276 --> 00:12:42,196 Speaker 1: the problem. 229 00:12:42,236 --> 00:12:43,716 Speaker 2: We come back to you, right, So if you need 230 00:12:43,756 --> 00:12:45,876 Speaker 2: to say that within ten years Fusion is going to 231 00:12:45,876 --> 00:12:48,356 Speaker 2: be commercial and profitable and on the grid and when 232 00:12:48,356 --> 00:12:52,676 Speaker 2: we've completed the development of it, that's a really really 233 00:12:52,796 --> 00:12:54,916 Speaker 2: risky proposition to take with clients. 234 00:12:54,956 --> 00:12:58,516 Speaker 1: You just need to find somebody to give you liquidity, right, 235 00:12:58,516 --> 00:13:00,716 Speaker 1: that's the other option. If somebody comes in, there's one up. 236 00:13:00,956 --> 00:13:03,316 Speaker 2: So if you're a really early stage investment, is usually 237 00:13:03,316 --> 00:13:06,116 Speaker 2: the exit for them of realizing the gain on the 238 00:13:06,196 --> 00:13:08,676 Speaker 2: risk which they've taken is to sell the company to 239 00:13:08,676 --> 00:13:11,636 Speaker 2: someone else. Someone else comes in and says, Okay, we 240 00:13:11,756 --> 00:13:14,236 Speaker 2: like the kind of risk we're taking from here, and 241 00:13:14,276 --> 00:13:16,996 Speaker 2: so you might start to see people who funded what 242 00:13:17,076 --> 00:13:20,116 Speaker 2: have been marguably science projects to date might say, okay, 243 00:13:20,116 --> 00:13:22,156 Speaker 2: well we've derisked the technology to hear. But now there's 244 00:13:22,156 --> 00:13:23,556 Speaker 2: a kind of investor that comes in and wants to 245 00:13:23,596 --> 00:13:26,876 Speaker 2: take engineering risk, and they might find that really attractive 246 00:13:26,876 --> 00:13:28,556 Speaker 2: as a starting point because they can say, oh, well, 247 00:13:28,596 --> 00:13:30,836 Speaker 2: these people have de risked the science and now I'm 248 00:13:30,876 --> 00:13:32,036 Speaker 2: just taking engineering just. 249 00:13:31,956 --> 00:13:34,476 Speaker 1: To be like super clear one sentence, like why did 250 00:13:34,476 --> 00:13:35,156 Speaker 1: you put money in? 251 00:13:35,916 --> 00:13:38,356 Speaker 2: So we think there's a path to profitability that's far 252 00:13:38,436 --> 00:13:40,916 Speaker 2: sooner than selling commercial electricity onto the grid. 253 00:13:41,356 --> 00:13:41,556 Speaker 1: I think. 254 00:13:41,636 --> 00:13:43,276 Speaker 2: I mean, gregill do a better job than I can 255 00:13:43,556 --> 00:13:45,756 Speaker 2: telling this story, but there are many more things you 256 00:13:45,756 --> 00:13:49,036 Speaker 2: can do with fusion besides just producing electricity. And it's 257 00:13:49,076 --> 00:13:51,396 Speaker 2: that journey getting from where we are now to there 258 00:13:51,476 --> 00:13:54,756 Speaker 2: that I think is more interesting for investors, particularly the moment. 259 00:13:55,316 --> 00:13:57,436 Speaker 2: And I think we were talking beforehand and you sort 260 00:13:57,476 --> 00:14:01,196 Speaker 2: of make the SpaceX comparison. We didn't start off with that. Well, 261 00:14:01,236 --> 00:14:03,036 Speaker 2: we started off with an ambition to get the Mars 262 00:14:03,156 --> 00:14:06,116 Speaker 2: in SpaceX, which we're investors in, But the path to 263 00:14:06,156 --> 00:14:09,756 Speaker 2: getting there has been commercializing low Earth orbit. It hasn't 264 00:14:09,796 --> 00:14:12,716 Speaker 2: been sending your rockets to Mars as soon as possible. 265 00:14:13,036 --> 00:14:16,196 Speaker 2: It's been building that financial sustainability to the point where 266 00:14:16,636 --> 00:14:19,076 Speaker 2: when you want to take a trip to Mars, the 267 00:14:19,356 --> 00:14:21,876 Speaker 2: cost of that is trivialal on the comparison of what 268 00:14:21,956 --> 00:14:24,596 Speaker 2: it was ten years ago. And so you're trying to 269 00:14:24,636 --> 00:14:28,156 Speaker 2: make that the option on the investment rather than the 270 00:14:28,196 --> 00:14:31,316 Speaker 2: core and thesis that everything all the risk rests on. 271 00:14:31,716 --> 00:14:33,876 Speaker 2: And so there are smart ways to introduce your business 272 00:14:33,916 --> 00:14:36,956 Speaker 2: principles and staging the strategy of a company in terms 273 00:14:36,996 --> 00:14:39,996 Speaker 2: of what markets they go after, which might make it 274 00:14:40,116 --> 00:14:42,636 Speaker 2: easier to go after the end goal. Now, that kind 275 00:14:42,636 --> 00:14:45,596 Speaker 2: often if you present it to academia or other places, 276 00:14:45,596 --> 00:14:47,396 Speaker 2: it sounds like selling out right, or some big bad 277 00:14:47,436 --> 00:14:50,476 Speaker 2: investors come and says, oh, we need to make profits now, 278 00:14:50,676 --> 00:14:51,156 Speaker 2: rather than. 279 00:14:51,276 --> 00:14:53,276 Speaker 1: All you did was reduce the cost of getting to 280 00:14:53,276 --> 00:14:54,916 Speaker 1: the space by ten x on. 281 00:14:55,156 --> 00:14:57,796 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly like it or not, we have to figure 282 00:14:57,836 --> 00:15:00,716 Speaker 2: out a way that this is commercial in order for 283 00:15:00,756 --> 00:15:01,356 Speaker 2: it to succeed. 284 00:15:01,756 --> 00:15:05,396 Speaker 1: So, just to articulate the metaphor, right, in the case 285 00:15:05,436 --> 00:15:08,516 Speaker 1: of SpaceX, the big dream is going to Mars. The 286 00:15:08,516 --> 00:15:12,356 Speaker 1: practical reaction is just getting to orbit more cheaply. By analogy, 287 00:15:12,396 --> 00:15:15,756 Speaker 1: the big dream. Here is cheap and abundant power beyond 288 00:15:15,756 --> 00:15:19,636 Speaker 1: our dreams. And so what is the what is the 289 00:15:19,676 --> 00:15:21,196 Speaker 1: getting to space for you, Greg? 290 00:15:21,876 --> 00:15:22,276 Speaker 5: Fusion? 291 00:15:22,716 --> 00:15:24,516 Speaker 6: It makes energy, which is what we're all interested in 292 00:15:24,556 --> 00:15:28,196 Speaker 6: long term. But that energy is carried by particles called neutrons, 293 00:15:28,276 --> 00:15:31,116 Speaker 6: at least from the easiest fusion reaction to do something 294 00:15:31,116 --> 00:15:33,716 Speaker 6: called deuterium and tritium. And it turns out that the 295 00:15:33,796 --> 00:15:36,356 Speaker 6: neutrons from fusion actually have tremendous value on their own, 296 00:15:37,076 --> 00:15:39,756 Speaker 6: used for different purposes. So you can use neutrons to 297 00:15:39,836 --> 00:15:42,436 Speaker 6: take pictures of things, you can use neutrons to literally 298 00:15:42,436 --> 00:15:45,716 Speaker 6: do alchemy, to turn low value materials into high value materials. 299 00:15:46,436 --> 00:15:48,596 Speaker 6: You can capture the heat from the neutrons. I'd argue 300 00:15:48,596 --> 00:15:50,356 Speaker 6: that if we're looking one hundred years from now, the 301 00:15:50,396 --> 00:15:53,556 Speaker 6: biggest value from fusion might be doing bulk scale transmutation 302 00:15:53,636 --> 00:15:56,996 Speaker 6: of low value materials into high and not even electricity anymore. 303 00:15:57,276 --> 00:15:59,516 Speaker 1: And just so for a specific example, I know you're 304 00:15:59,516 --> 00:16:02,836 Speaker 1: working on a there's a big project you're working on 305 00:16:02,916 --> 00:16:05,316 Speaker 1: right now to that end, like actually building a giant 306 00:16:05,356 --> 00:16:07,796 Speaker 1: building to do fusion to do that right well. 307 00:16:07,676 --> 00:16:09,716 Speaker 6: And we have yeah, and we have we have products 308 00:16:09,716 --> 00:16:12,836 Speaker 6: in the market today. So as I said we started, 309 00:16:13,516 --> 00:16:15,396 Speaker 6: we're kind of following a chip model. So in defense, 310 00:16:15,476 --> 00:16:17,316 Speaker 6: we have customers who will pay U one hundred thousand 311 00:16:17,316 --> 00:16:20,356 Speaker 6: dollars to kill a what hour for fusion output? 312 00:16:20,516 --> 00:16:23,116 Speaker 1: What are they buying from? You're just extremely pick a picture. 313 00:16:24,036 --> 00:16:28,476 Speaker 6: So we can use neutrons to radiograph modern jet engine blades, 314 00:16:28,516 --> 00:16:30,316 Speaker 6: for example, so. 315 00:16:30,316 --> 00:16:32,836 Speaker 1: Thet fancy X ray, yeah, X ray for a thing 316 00:16:32,836 --> 00:16:33,796 Speaker 1: where X rays. 317 00:16:33,556 --> 00:16:36,436 Speaker 6: Don't work exactly. Yeah, And just I could give a 318 00:16:36,476 --> 00:16:40,436 Speaker 6: really specific example. So modern jet aircraft use very high 319 00:16:40,436 --> 00:16:44,796 Speaker 6: temperature engines and they get high efficiency by running the 320 00:16:44,836 --> 00:16:49,356 Speaker 6: engine above its melting point frightening. It's terrifying, right, like 321 00:16:49,636 --> 00:16:51,916 Speaker 6: if it melts, it explodes, and potentially it takes down 322 00:16:51,916 --> 00:16:53,636 Speaker 6: the plane, depending on what type of plane you're in. 323 00:16:54,556 --> 00:16:56,236 Speaker 6: And the way they do that is they pull cold 324 00:16:56,236 --> 00:16:58,036 Speaker 6: air from the front of the engine, they can press it, 325 00:16:58,076 --> 00:17:01,916 Speaker 6: and they pump it through the each individual fan blade themselves. 326 00:17:02,476 --> 00:17:05,636 Speaker 6: And so they have to cast these incredibly intricate channels 327 00:17:06,036 --> 00:17:08,796 Speaker 6: to assure this cold air passes through the blade. And 328 00:17:08,876 --> 00:17:11,796 Speaker 6: it's a tough process and frequently in this process a 329 00:17:11,836 --> 00:17:15,756 Speaker 6: little defect is included in the manufacturing process and only 330 00:17:15,756 --> 00:17:19,036 Speaker 6: a neutrons can see it, and if you don't see it, 331 00:17:18,956 --> 00:17:21,236 Speaker 6: it doesn't fail in testing. It's kind of like a 332 00:17:21,236 --> 00:17:23,836 Speaker 6: blood clot in your arteries, Like it's sitting there and 333 00:17:23,876 --> 00:17:26,036 Speaker 6: then suddenly one day a pilot's going to have a 334 00:17:26,036 --> 00:17:27,916 Speaker 6: bad day and it moves and it gives them a stroke. Right, 335 00:17:27,956 --> 00:17:30,516 Speaker 6: it blocks that thing. The engine explodes. If you're in 336 00:17:30,556 --> 00:17:33,396 Speaker 6: an F thirty five, you probably go down. If you're 337 00:17:33,436 --> 00:17:35,716 Speaker 6: in an air bus, you know you have a bad day. 338 00:17:35,916 --> 00:17:38,596 Speaker 6: So this fusion reaction produces the neutron. As I mentioned, 339 00:17:38,676 --> 00:17:40,916 Speaker 6: we kind of collimate it into a beam. We push 340 00:17:40,916 --> 00:17:42,596 Speaker 6: it through the object, and we put it neutrons instead 341 00:17:42,596 --> 00:17:44,676 Speaker 6: of film behind it, and we take an X ray 342 00:17:44,716 --> 00:17:46,556 Speaker 6: we take it a neutron. 343 00:17:46,956 --> 00:17:51,236 Speaker 1: So this is what you're selling now, a product of fusion, right, yeah, great, 344 00:17:51,276 --> 00:17:53,556 Speaker 1: So that's where we are today. Something's happening with fusion. 345 00:17:53,596 --> 00:17:55,476 Speaker 1: People are giving money to do fusion. 346 00:17:55,636 --> 00:17:58,036 Speaker 6: And to your other point, we've invested now in a 347 00:17:58,156 --> 00:18:01,036 Speaker 6: half a billion dollar plant that'll make twenty million doses 348 00:18:01,036 --> 00:18:03,156 Speaker 6: of medicine every year when complete over the next one 349 00:18:03,156 --> 00:18:03,836 Speaker 6: to two years. 350 00:18:04,236 --> 00:18:04,956 Speaker 5: We take. 351 00:18:06,836 --> 00:18:09,636 Speaker 6: Uranium that was once intended for nuclear weapons, so highly 352 00:18:09,716 --> 00:18:11,876 Speaker 6: enriched uranium that the government is down blended. 353 00:18:12,236 --> 00:18:14,156 Speaker 5: It's worth about six dollars. 354 00:18:13,876 --> 00:18:16,556 Speaker 6: A gram after it's been down blended, and we turn 355 00:18:16,556 --> 00:18:19,116 Speaker 6: it into a substance called molybdenum ninety nine, which is 356 00:18:19,196 --> 00:18:20,276 Speaker 6: used to look for heart disease. 357 00:18:20,316 --> 00:18:21,636 Speaker 5: It's used to stage cancer. 358 00:18:22,116 --> 00:18:24,756 Speaker 6: It's easing forty million tests every year around the world, 359 00:18:24,996 --> 00:18:27,116 Speaker 6: and it's worth about one hundred million dollars a gram. 360 00:18:27,276 --> 00:18:31,396 Speaker 1: One hundred million dollars a gram gives one pause presumably 361 00:18:31,516 --> 00:18:33,196 Speaker 1: use an extremely small amount. 362 00:18:33,356 --> 00:18:37,596 Speaker 6: Yeah, about zero point one micro grams yea. So you 363 00:18:37,636 --> 00:18:40,796 Speaker 6: know it's it's actually pretty cheap for the patient at 364 00:18:40,796 --> 00:18:42,476 Speaker 6: the end of the day. And that's why you can 365 00:18:42,516 --> 00:18:46,036 Speaker 6: do so many millions of patients with this fairly cheap material. 366 00:18:46,236 --> 00:18:47,716 Speaker 6: But it so, this is what I was talking about. 367 00:18:47,756 --> 00:18:49,756 Speaker 6: We can use neutrons to turn low value things into 368 00:18:49,796 --> 00:18:53,156 Speaker 6: high value things, albeit at small scale. Yeah, and that's 369 00:18:53,196 --> 00:18:54,956 Speaker 6: actually like that's a commercial reality. 370 00:18:54,996 --> 00:18:57,356 Speaker 5: We know that that works. We've invested in the plant. 371 00:18:57,596 --> 00:19:00,236 Speaker 6: This will be the way that the western hemisphere produces 372 00:19:00,996 --> 00:19:03,316 Speaker 6: ISOs hopes for the next fifty years. 373 00:19:03,316 --> 00:19:03,716 Speaker 5: Probably. 374 00:19:07,036 --> 00:19:21,476 Speaker 1: We'll be back in just a minute. So we haven't 375 00:19:21,476 --> 00:19:24,396 Speaker 1: said AI yet. We've gone an impressively long time without 376 00:19:24,396 --> 00:19:27,556 Speaker 1: saying a I So I'm gonna say it. AI means 377 00:19:27,556 --> 00:19:29,716 Speaker 1: the richest companies in the history of the world have 378 00:19:29,756 --> 00:19:33,676 Speaker 1: an incredible demand for electric power, which seems good for fusion. 379 00:19:34,356 --> 00:19:37,316 Speaker 1: What does the what does the demand mean? I mean, 380 00:19:37,316 --> 00:19:41,356 Speaker 1: the most kind of dramatic one is Microsoft has this 381 00:19:41,476 --> 00:19:45,356 Speaker 1: power purchase agreement with it's Helion, right, with a fusion company. 382 00:19:45,916 --> 00:19:49,516 Speaker 1: Supposedly that's going to start delivering power in twenty twenty eight, which, 383 00:19:49,556 --> 00:19:51,956 Speaker 1: like I can't even get my deck refinished by twenty 384 00:19:51,996 --> 00:19:56,716 Speaker 1: twenty eight, right, what does well I don't know if 385 00:19:56,716 --> 00:19:58,476 Speaker 1: you guys will answer this, but ay, is that going 386 00:19:58,556 --> 00:20:00,876 Speaker 1: to happen? Let me just ask, is that going to happen? 387 00:20:01,196 --> 00:20:03,836 Speaker 1: Is there going to be fusion power for Microsoft in 388 00:20:03,876 --> 00:20:04,596 Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight? 389 00:20:05,476 --> 00:20:07,716 Speaker 4: We don't really know a lot about what they're doing 390 00:20:07,716 --> 00:20:10,636 Speaker 4: because they don't publish per papers in the same way that. 391 00:20:11,036 --> 00:20:12,716 Speaker 3: Some other companies. Most other companies do. 392 00:20:13,036 --> 00:20:15,836 Speaker 4: Some companies are very secretive because I mean, there's a 393 00:20:15,876 --> 00:20:19,236 Speaker 4: lot of intellectual property here, and there is I guess 394 00:20:19,236 --> 00:20:21,836 Speaker 4: complexity for the companies in how they publish their results 395 00:20:21,836 --> 00:20:25,196 Speaker 4: for the scientific community and therefore have their credibility and 396 00:20:25,236 --> 00:20:29,316 Speaker 4: how much they protect. But there's also Commonwealth Fusion Systems, 397 00:20:29,356 --> 00:20:31,916 Speaker 4: which is a spin out from MIT, and they're much 398 00:20:31,916 --> 00:20:35,836 Speaker 4: more public about their work. They're based on the tocomac concept, 399 00:20:35,956 --> 00:20:39,836 Speaker 4: which has been researched historically since about the nineteen sixties, 400 00:20:39,876 --> 00:20:42,636 Speaker 4: so it's the best understood of the fusion concepts. But 401 00:20:42,676 --> 00:20:46,516 Speaker 4: it's really really hard to engineer a power plant. But 402 00:20:46,796 --> 00:20:49,676 Speaker 4: they're also the best funded of all the fusion companies. 403 00:20:49,676 --> 00:20:54,356 Speaker 4: They've raised about two to three billion dollars. They have 404 00:20:55,316 --> 00:20:57,836 Speaker 4: a power purchase agreement with Google as well. 405 00:20:57,876 --> 00:21:00,036 Speaker 3: I think I can't remember the exact dates of their 406 00:21:00,676 --> 00:21:02,316 Speaker 3: probably twenty thirties. 407 00:21:01,916 --> 00:21:05,676 Speaker 4: So they are I would say more likely than Helion, 408 00:21:06,036 --> 00:21:08,356 Speaker 4: and they publish a lot so we can actually. 409 00:21:08,316 --> 00:21:08,836 Speaker 3: Look at what they did. 410 00:21:09,196 --> 00:21:11,556 Speaker 2: Imagine they're taking a portfolio approach to that as well. Right, 411 00:21:11,596 --> 00:21:14,676 Speaker 2: they're not betting their business. Is Healion or is Commonwealth 412 00:21:14,756 --> 00:21:16,956 Speaker 2: going to be able to produce electricity on next day? 413 00:21:17,636 --> 00:21:22,316 Speaker 1: Sure? I mean as Microsoft's pain to restart three Mile Island, right. 414 00:21:22,196 --> 00:21:24,596 Speaker 3: I mean they're exploring everything. Is it for them? 415 00:21:24,996 --> 00:21:27,276 Speaker 4: A sister who works in Google actually, and she says 416 00:21:27,316 --> 00:21:30,956 Speaker 4: that for them it's an existential risk. Well, they need energy, 417 00:21:30,956 --> 00:21:35,036 Speaker 4: so they're exploring, they're exploring everything. They're investing very highly 418 00:21:35,076 --> 00:21:39,236 Speaker 4: and renewables as well. But they know that it's going 419 00:21:39,236 --> 00:21:41,436 Speaker 4: to grow. The demands are going to grow, and fusion 420 00:21:41,676 --> 00:21:46,516 Speaker 4: gives them just a really important option for the future 421 00:21:46,516 --> 00:21:49,476 Speaker 4: for energy. But they're also strategically investing in these companies 422 00:21:49,676 --> 00:21:53,156 Speaker 4: as well, So there's an upside on the investment side 423 00:21:53,196 --> 00:21:55,476 Speaker 4: as well if these companies succeed and they can really 424 00:21:55,876 --> 00:21:56,436 Speaker 4: enable them. 425 00:21:56,476 --> 00:22:00,396 Speaker 1: I suppose when me take a run at another falsifiable prediction, 426 00:22:02,916 --> 00:22:08,156 Speaker 1: when will a data center be at least partly powered 427 00:22:08,276 --> 00:22:09,716 Speaker 1: by should. 428 00:22:10,156 --> 00:22:13,356 Speaker 4: That's an interesting question as well because it takes you 429 00:22:13,396 --> 00:22:15,876 Speaker 4: into the behind the met conversation rather than the grid. 430 00:22:16,076 --> 00:22:19,236 Speaker 1: Easier, right, should be before like, will anybody say a 431 00:22:19,316 --> 00:22:22,676 Speaker 1: number twenty thirty light numbers? 432 00:22:23,116 --> 00:22:25,916 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think I think fusion energy will have a 433 00:22:26,036 --> 00:22:28,836 Speaker 6: role either on or behind the grid by twenty forty. 434 00:22:28,916 --> 00:22:31,876 Speaker 6: By twenty forty, okay, And I think we've got, you know, 435 00:22:32,116 --> 00:22:35,796 Speaker 6: our own path. So we we we've collected data on 436 00:22:36,116 --> 00:22:38,876 Speaker 6: our cost of fusion, and we've looked at our last 437 00:22:38,876 --> 00:22:42,116 Speaker 6: several product lines over the last ten years and projected 438 00:22:42,156 --> 00:22:45,276 Speaker 6: it forward. And if you just follow a straight extrapolation 439 00:22:45,476 --> 00:22:48,876 Speaker 6: of how the cost has been coming down, our technology 440 00:22:48,916 --> 00:22:51,636 Speaker 6: should be there on twenty forty. So there you go 441 00:22:51,716 --> 00:22:55,236 Speaker 6: before twenty I'll say even before, Okay, slightly before the line. 442 00:22:55,316 --> 00:22:57,396 Speaker 1: And that's just sort of the More's law of fusion 443 00:22:57,676 --> 00:23:01,076 Speaker 1: right as his extrapolation, to be clear, could go faster 444 00:23:01,236 --> 00:23:02,676 Speaker 1: with the breakthrough right a lot. 445 00:23:04,436 --> 00:23:05,316 Speaker 5: But that's why I think. 446 00:23:05,556 --> 00:23:09,796 Speaker 4: There are also different considerations, aren't they, Because to your 447 00:23:09,796 --> 00:23:12,076 Speaker 4: point before about you can sell things at different prices 448 00:23:12,076 --> 00:23:14,556 Speaker 4: depending on the value, and so the value is going 449 00:23:14,596 --> 00:23:17,236 Speaker 4: to be much higher to let's say a data center 450 00:23:17,476 --> 00:23:21,596 Speaker 4: maybe maybe also remote minds or and there are also 451 00:23:21,676 --> 00:23:24,636 Speaker 4: there are other countries in the world where the electricity 452 00:23:24,676 --> 00:23:27,516 Speaker 4: price they could pay at higher price, like Japan, for example, 453 00:23:27,556 --> 00:23:30,356 Speaker 4: because they don't have very many other alternatives. Japan are 454 00:23:30,436 --> 00:23:33,276 Speaker 4: very strategically going after fusion as well, by the way, 455 00:23:33,516 --> 00:23:36,516 Speaker 4: and so you could see if people want it enough, 456 00:23:36,516 --> 00:23:38,436 Speaker 4: they will pay more for it, so then you don't 457 00:23:38,436 --> 00:23:40,956 Speaker 4: have to compete in the electricity market. 458 00:23:41,196 --> 00:23:42,716 Speaker 3: They could just so. 459 00:23:42,636 --> 00:23:45,636 Speaker 1: I'm hearing something kind of lower than twenty forty. Are 460 00:23:45,636 --> 00:23:47,436 Speaker 1: you taking the under here still think? 461 00:23:48,076 --> 00:23:48,156 Speaker 3: No? 462 00:23:48,196 --> 00:23:50,156 Speaker 4: I don't think I am, actually, because you've still got 463 00:23:50,236 --> 00:23:52,236 Speaker 4: to You've still got to do the things to get there. 464 00:23:52,236 --> 00:23:55,316 Speaker 4: There are still some phenomenal challenges on the engineering of 465 00:23:55,356 --> 00:23:57,916 Speaker 4: power plants, but money is going to be like, you 466 00:23:57,916 --> 00:24:00,516 Speaker 4: need money to build the machines, do the experiments, etc. 467 00:24:00,796 --> 00:24:01,876 Speaker 3: So money is key. 468 00:24:01,916 --> 00:24:03,756 Speaker 4: So if you don't have the money, it's going to 469 00:24:03,836 --> 00:24:06,356 Speaker 4: do longer than twenty forty. But even if you had 470 00:24:06,396 --> 00:24:08,316 Speaker 4: infinite money, can you do it quicker? 471 00:24:08,516 --> 00:24:09,716 Speaker 3: Probably can't do quicker. 472 00:24:09,476 --> 00:24:11,796 Speaker 4: Than twenty thirty five even with infinite money, because there's 473 00:24:11,796 --> 00:24:13,676 Speaker 4: a lot of research that. 474 00:24:13,636 --> 00:24:14,396 Speaker 3: Needs to be done. 475 00:24:14,556 --> 00:24:17,356 Speaker 6: I'd argue you infinite money is a terrible idea, you know. 476 00:24:17,396 --> 00:24:20,636 Speaker 6: I think throwing money at problems actually makes the solutions 477 00:24:20,676 --> 00:24:21,316 Speaker 6: really expensive. 478 00:24:21,476 --> 00:24:22,116 Speaker 1: Why is it bad? 479 00:24:22,436 --> 00:24:25,996 Speaker 6: Well, I mean fundamentally, if a technology is going to 480 00:24:26,076 --> 00:24:28,556 Speaker 6: change the world, it needs to be it needs to 481 00:24:28,596 --> 00:24:32,196 Speaker 6: create more value than it consumes, and otherwise it won't 482 00:24:32,236 --> 00:24:34,836 Speaker 6: scale right, Like, it could be a fascinating experiment, but 483 00:24:34,956 --> 00:24:36,996 Speaker 6: nobody is going to We're going to continue to make 484 00:24:37,116 --> 00:24:39,076 Speaker 6: energy the old way if it's much more expensive to 485 00:24:39,076 --> 00:24:42,236 Speaker 6: make energy with fusion. So investing infinite money and its 486 00:24:42,236 --> 00:24:44,516 Speaker 6: development is going to give people the wrong incentives. I 487 00:24:44,556 --> 00:24:48,476 Speaker 6: think it's really important for investors to also ensure that 488 00:24:48,516 --> 00:24:50,516 Speaker 6: the companies, and the boards of these companies and the 489 00:24:50,516 --> 00:24:53,396 Speaker 6: management teams of these companies are incentivized to find ways 490 00:24:53,436 --> 00:24:57,116 Speaker 6: to make cost effectiveness like in their thinking from day one. 491 00:24:57,476 --> 00:24:59,716 Speaker 6: And I do think there's a lot of focus on 492 00:25:00,756 --> 00:25:05,156 Speaker 6: scientific milestones, you know, then to be followed by engineering milestones, 493 00:25:05,196 --> 00:25:07,396 Speaker 6: and then to be followed by cost milestones. I'd argue 494 00:25:07,396 --> 00:25:12,116 Speaker 6: that's upside down. They as you pursue the better scientific 495 00:25:12,636 --> 00:25:15,636 Speaker 6: and engineering milestones, you have to be thinking about cost 496 00:25:15,676 --> 00:25:17,236 Speaker 6: the whole time. You should be thinking about cost the 497 00:25:17,236 --> 00:25:18,996 Speaker 6: whole time you should be practicing. I'm not saying people 498 00:25:18,996 --> 00:25:21,956 Speaker 6: aren't doing that, but the focus, at least from a 499 00:25:22,276 --> 00:25:26,236 Speaker 6: high level standpoint, is very If the hierarchy is very scientific, 500 00:25:26,276 --> 00:25:27,636 Speaker 6: then engineering, then cost. 501 00:25:27,876 --> 00:25:30,556 Speaker 4: I think if you're looking for examples, I was being 502 00:25:30,596 --> 00:25:31,476 Speaker 4: slightly facetious. 503 00:25:31,876 --> 00:25:34,116 Speaker 3: We'd love to have more money in fusion. 504 00:25:34,796 --> 00:25:36,876 Speaker 4: But if you are looking for example, just look at 505 00:25:36,876 --> 00:25:40,836 Speaker 4: the difference between the public sector and like the private 506 00:25:40,836 --> 00:25:43,036 Speaker 4: sector now and also how things have changed over the 507 00:25:43,116 --> 00:25:47,236 Speaker 4: last let's say ten years, because so that before before, 508 00:25:47,396 --> 00:25:49,796 Speaker 4: you know, so ten years ago, before ten years ago, 509 00:25:50,316 --> 00:25:52,996 Speaker 4: fusion maybe even a bit more fifteen Like fusion was 510 00:25:53,156 --> 00:25:57,756 Speaker 4: all public lab it was all like government funded public research, 511 00:25:58,196 --> 00:26:01,636 Speaker 4: and it wasn't infinite money, it wasn't anywhere near enough money, 512 00:26:01,676 --> 00:26:06,356 Speaker 4: but it was it was all just like academic thinking 513 00:26:06,716 --> 00:26:08,156 Speaker 4: driven and so. 514 00:26:08,236 --> 00:26:09,756 Speaker 3: That they did a lot. 515 00:26:09,836 --> 00:26:13,356 Speaker 4: They got to a point where they we understood a 516 00:26:13,396 --> 00:26:14,276 Speaker 4: lot about the science. 517 00:26:14,476 --> 00:26:15,756 Speaker 3: But it also got to a point. 518 00:26:15,556 --> 00:26:18,236 Speaker 4: Where the machines they were building were really huge, like 519 00:26:18,276 --> 00:26:22,116 Speaker 4: et which is a big billion dollar experiment being built 520 00:26:22,116 --> 00:26:24,676 Speaker 4: in the south of France, and so people started saying, like, 521 00:26:25,036 --> 00:26:27,996 Speaker 4: what's next, and how on earth can we commercialize something 522 00:26:27,996 --> 00:26:30,476 Speaker 4: that is this big and this expensive. And so the 523 00:26:30,556 --> 00:26:33,236 Speaker 4: interesting shift that has happened happened over the last ten 524 00:26:33,356 --> 00:26:37,156 Speaker 4: years is you've got private companies have sprung up and 525 00:26:37,196 --> 00:26:39,636 Speaker 4: they're approaching the problem with the more commercial mindset. The 526 00:26:39,636 --> 00:26:44,876 Speaker 4: conversation is very commercial dominated, private sector dominated, as opposed 527 00:26:44,916 --> 00:26:47,516 Speaker 4: to the academia, and even within governments, they're thinking about 528 00:26:47,516 --> 00:26:49,716 Speaker 4: how the public sector can feed into the private sector 529 00:26:49,836 --> 00:26:52,596 Speaker 4: and what's needed because there's now a recognition that it's 530 00:26:52,636 --> 00:26:54,396 Speaker 4: going to be the private companies that are going to 531 00:26:54,476 --> 00:26:56,636 Speaker 4: drive fusion forward and are going to put it on 532 00:26:56,676 --> 00:26:59,796 Speaker 4: the grid as opposed to a government project. Mostly there 533 00:26:59,796 --> 00:27:04,796 Speaker 4: are countries, So that's the shift that's really happened. And 534 00:27:04,836 --> 00:27:07,116 Speaker 4: it's that, and it's that shift from a sort of 535 00:27:07,116 --> 00:27:10,276 Speaker 4: like infinite money mindset to a commercial no, we need 536 00:27:10,316 --> 00:27:13,276 Speaker 4: to do this with constrained budgets. 537 00:27:12,756 --> 00:27:14,356 Speaker 3: And make it profitable. 538 00:27:14,436 --> 00:27:16,676 Speaker 4: I think that's a really interesting shift. 539 00:27:16,356 --> 00:27:16,916 Speaker 3: That we've seen. 540 00:27:17,756 --> 00:27:20,116 Speaker 1: I mean, Luke, how does it look too as a 541 00:27:20,196 --> 00:27:23,556 Speaker 1: person with infinite money. 542 00:27:25,396 --> 00:27:27,436 Speaker 2: So there's two approaches that If you think that fusion 543 00:27:27,596 --> 00:27:30,116 Speaker 2: is inevitable and at some point civilization is going to 544 00:27:30,116 --> 00:27:32,596 Speaker 2: be powered by it, I think that's quite a consensual 545 00:27:32,796 --> 00:27:36,636 Speaker 2: view within the industry. The question is when and how 546 00:27:36,716 --> 00:27:39,076 Speaker 2: much to to your points, how much money and how 547 00:27:39,156 --> 00:27:41,796 Speaker 2: much time? Yeah, exactly, And so an investiplace with that 548 00:27:41,876 --> 00:27:44,436 Speaker 2: problem has kind of got two choices. If you have 549 00:27:44,516 --> 00:27:47,596 Speaker 2: to deploy capital into fusion, you'd say, oh, I can 550 00:27:47,636 --> 00:27:49,836 Speaker 2: take a Portfoilio approach. I can just invest in anything 551 00:27:49,876 --> 00:27:52,276 Speaker 2: and everything, because I just want to capture the one 552 00:27:52,556 --> 00:27:54,956 Speaker 2: thing that works and that's going to be so valuable 553 00:27:54,956 --> 00:27:58,316 Speaker 2: that it doesn't matter about fusion etf exactly all the 554 00:27:58,356 --> 00:28:01,676 Speaker 2: other failures. And you take that approach, or you could say, well, 555 00:28:01,996 --> 00:28:04,076 Speaker 2: I'm just going to pick the winner, and am either 556 00:28:04,196 --> 00:28:06,956 Speaker 2: knowledgeable enough or arrogant enough or however you want to 557 00:28:06,996 --> 00:28:08,876 Speaker 2: describe that to say that, oh, we can just pick 558 00:28:08,916 --> 00:28:11,156 Speaker 2: that one or two and that's the kind of risk 559 00:28:11,196 --> 00:28:13,716 Speaker 2: you can take. All you could say, well, what are 560 00:28:13,716 --> 00:28:17,676 Speaker 2: the enabling technologies and enabling businesses that need to happen 561 00:28:17,716 --> 00:28:20,836 Speaker 2: to support that goal. So rather than investing in a reactor, 562 00:28:20,876 --> 00:28:23,956 Speaker 2: which might end up pursuing a utility business model might 563 00:28:23,956 --> 00:28:26,196 Speaker 2: be heavily regulated, why not try and find the company 564 00:28:26,196 --> 00:28:28,796 Speaker 2: that's making the widgets that allow the reactor to do 565 00:28:28,836 --> 00:28:32,076 Speaker 2: a particular thing. And often those companies end up being 566 00:28:32,396 --> 00:28:34,556 Speaker 2: some of the most valuable ones in industries. It's not 567 00:28:34,596 --> 00:28:36,916 Speaker 2: the one which ultimately is the face of it, it's 568 00:28:36,916 --> 00:28:38,796 Speaker 2: the one that enables it. And quite a few of 569 00:28:38,796 --> 00:28:41,156 Speaker 2: the companies that I've already cottoned onto this and are 570 00:28:41,196 --> 00:28:44,156 Speaker 2: doing their own business lines around that of vertically integrating. 571 00:28:44,196 --> 00:28:47,036 Speaker 2: So Commonwealth is a really good examples that's making its 572 00:28:47,036 --> 00:28:50,756 Speaker 2: own superconducting magnets for its reactor, but is also then 573 00:28:50,796 --> 00:28:52,996 Speaker 2: going to market to hopefully sell those to other companies 574 00:28:53,276 --> 00:28:54,556 Speaker 2: or sell those to other industries. 575 00:28:54,716 --> 00:28:58,356 Speaker 4: Yeah, can I depend say in your intro when you 576 00:28:58,436 --> 00:29:00,756 Speaker 4: said no one's making money yet or when they're not, 577 00:29:01,076 --> 00:29:02,716 Speaker 4: no one's going to make money out of the future. 578 00:29:02,716 --> 00:29:04,316 Speaker 4: Companies are going to make money for a long time. 579 00:29:05,436 --> 00:29:08,796 Speaker 4: To your point, I don't think that's true. Shine has 580 00:29:08,796 --> 00:29:10,956 Speaker 4: been there it for for years. Like I'd say, like 581 00:29:11,036 --> 00:29:14,196 Speaker 4: pioneering this approach. It's just really interesting to see that. 582 00:29:14,276 --> 00:29:16,676 Speaker 4: Like a few years back, so Fusion x Invest, one 583 00:29:16,676 --> 00:29:19,436 Speaker 4: of the companies that I founded, We've had a lot 584 00:29:19,436 --> 00:29:22,436 Speaker 4: of these conversations and a few Like in the earlier stages, 585 00:29:22,516 --> 00:29:25,436 Speaker 4: it was very much like the portfolio approach, who's gonna 586 00:29:25,436 --> 00:29:27,596 Speaker 4: who's gonna win. I'm gonna have a stelearrated company and 587 00:29:27,596 --> 00:29:29,556 Speaker 4: a talk about company, and I'm gonna have a laser company, 588 00:29:29,596 --> 00:29:32,356 Speaker 4: and I'm gonna hit an outlier company. 589 00:29:32,076 --> 00:29:32,876 Speaker 3: And i hit my bets. 590 00:29:33,796 --> 00:29:36,596 Speaker 4: And people said, oh, it's a distraction if you if 591 00:29:36,636 --> 00:29:39,876 Speaker 4: you're a fusion company and you're thinking about making revenues, 592 00:29:39,916 --> 00:29:42,956 Speaker 4: it's a distraction. You should be focused on the prize 593 00:29:43,116 --> 00:29:44,716 Speaker 4: that was a few years ago. In the in the 594 00:29:44,716 --> 00:29:47,676 Speaker 4: space of a few years, the conversation is shifting to 595 00:29:47,796 --> 00:29:51,836 Speaker 4: exactly what you're talking about. So where firstly, some of 596 00:29:51,876 --> 00:29:53,316 Speaker 4: the private fusion companies are. 597 00:29:53,836 --> 00:29:55,556 Speaker 3: Probably not being able to raise what they need to 598 00:29:55,636 --> 00:29:58,716 Speaker 3: raise and are thinking like, well, we need to have. 599 00:29:58,876 --> 00:30:01,476 Speaker 4: We need to get other revenues from somewhere, So how 600 00:30:01,476 --> 00:30:03,276 Speaker 4: are they going to do that? So people have started 601 00:30:03,676 --> 00:30:05,996 Speaker 4: selling their technology. Like when you're when you're trying to 602 00:30:06,036 --> 00:30:08,316 Speaker 4: solve a really hard problem, you're going to develop technology 603 00:30:08,316 --> 00:30:10,636 Speaker 4: along the way that is potentially valuable in other markets. 604 00:30:10,636 --> 00:30:12,436 Speaker 3: So companies are starting to do that. 605 00:30:12,716 --> 00:30:13,836 Speaker 1: What's an example of that. 606 00:30:15,356 --> 00:30:18,436 Speaker 4: Magnets you mentioned high temperature superconductors and magnets that you 607 00:30:18,476 --> 00:30:20,116 Speaker 4: can make from high temperature super and muture. 608 00:30:20,156 --> 00:30:22,156 Speaker 1: Are the buyers outside of fusion. 609 00:30:22,356 --> 00:30:28,676 Speaker 4: Particle accelerators, medical grids, a defense aviation there are a 610 00:30:28,756 --> 00:30:33,636 Speaker 4: number There are also lots of laser technologies, software technology, 611 00:30:33,676 --> 00:30:37,156 Speaker 4: is power power bank technologies. There are a number of 612 00:30:37,236 --> 00:30:39,756 Speaker 4: different things that are being developed and are being sold. 613 00:30:39,796 --> 00:30:41,756 Speaker 2: I mean these can revolutionize the markets that are going 614 00:30:41,796 --> 00:30:43,836 Speaker 2: into as well. So what's the impact that fusion can have. 615 00:30:43,956 --> 00:30:46,716 Speaker 2: It might be in like completely obscure sort of markets 616 00:30:46,716 --> 00:30:48,756 Speaker 2: which you want to associate with fusion. So you know, 617 00:30:48,756 --> 00:30:51,676 Speaker 2: if we can make high temperature superconducting, does that mean 618 00:30:51,716 --> 00:30:53,956 Speaker 2: we can make MRI machines for a fraction of the 619 00:30:53,956 --> 00:30:55,596 Speaker 2: cost or make many more of them? Are people going 620 00:30:55,596 --> 00:30:58,396 Speaker 2: to have access to that kind of scanning, etcetera. Because 621 00:30:58,916 --> 00:31:02,356 Speaker 2: of a reactor design company that's trying to figure out 622 00:31:02,396 --> 00:31:04,956 Speaker 2: how does it contain a plasma better. So again there's 623 00:31:04,956 --> 00:31:09,116 Speaker 2: all these different offshoots which might actually the significance of fusion. 624 00:31:09,676 --> 00:31:11,676 Speaker 2: It's kind of like the Space Race, right, people say, oh, 625 00:31:11,716 --> 00:31:12,876 Speaker 2: what does the Space Race do for us? 626 00:31:12,876 --> 00:31:15,196 Speaker 1: And then you have this long list of non sticks. 627 00:31:16,676 --> 00:31:18,876 Speaker 3: Always comes out and free strive food val. 628 00:31:19,036 --> 00:31:21,236 Speaker 1: Valcro will take stick pins out of the microchip. 629 00:31:21,276 --> 00:31:23,556 Speaker 2: To Greg's earlier point in terms of like NASA, you know, 630 00:31:23,676 --> 00:31:26,156 Speaker 2: needing these kind of level of computers for the Apollo program, 631 00:31:26,156 --> 00:31:28,796 Speaker 2: et cetera. So again, the hope is with fusion, if 632 00:31:28,796 --> 00:31:30,996 Speaker 2: you can get enough of that going as well, is 633 00:31:30,996 --> 00:31:32,876 Speaker 2: that a way to be able to fund the next leap? 634 00:31:32,956 --> 00:31:34,636 Speaker 4: In terms of commercials what people are doing, and that's 635 00:31:34,676 --> 00:31:37,876 Speaker 4: what we're seeing now. We've got increasingly private fusion companies 636 00:31:38,036 --> 00:31:41,596 Speaker 4: come to fusion advisory services doing market studies, looking for 637 00:31:41,636 --> 00:31:46,076 Speaker 4: the other markets where their technologies have applications. Those are 638 00:31:46,116 --> 00:31:48,876 Speaker 4: where the opportunities are kind of happening today. And there 639 00:31:48,916 --> 00:31:52,196 Speaker 4: those investors now who are looking for those opportunities as well, 640 00:31:52,196 --> 00:31:55,156 Speaker 4: in the supply chain companies and in the fusion companies. 641 00:31:54,756 --> 00:31:57,196 Speaker 3: Who are doing other things besides just fusion. 642 00:31:58,756 --> 00:32:00,756 Speaker 1: I want to leave time for questions. So before we 643 00:32:00,796 --> 00:32:02,956 Speaker 1: got to questions, I'd like to ask each of you 644 00:32:03,676 --> 00:32:09,356 Speaker 1: to just give us one insight, one thought to walk 645 00:32:09,356 --> 00:32:09,956 Speaker 1: out of the room with. 646 00:32:12,276 --> 00:32:15,436 Speaker 6: Mine's easy. Fusion's already here. It's already improving your life, 647 00:32:15,476 --> 00:32:18,596 Speaker 6: making it safer. Soon, it's going to make it healthier. 648 00:32:19,116 --> 00:32:21,356 Speaker 6: And you know the future is but I think it's 649 00:32:21,436 --> 00:32:22,156 Speaker 6: it's already here. 650 00:32:24,956 --> 00:32:29,476 Speaker 4: Yeah, mine is that as we've similar to what we've 651 00:32:29,516 --> 00:32:32,996 Speaker 4: been discussing, I think that in any big energy transition, 652 00:32:33,876 --> 00:32:37,036 Speaker 4: the people who engaged early were the ones. 653 00:32:36,756 --> 00:32:39,436 Speaker 3: Who did the best out of it, you could say. 654 00:32:40,476 --> 00:32:44,236 Speaker 4: And so I would encourage people to not be too 655 00:32:44,276 --> 00:32:48,076 Speaker 4: dismissive about oh it's science fiction, Oh it's always thirty 656 00:32:48,156 --> 00:32:53,356 Speaker 4: years away. Just stay informed because to Greg's point, it's coming. 657 00:32:53,476 --> 00:32:57,196 Speaker 4: The people in the industry know it's coming. And if 658 00:32:57,196 --> 00:33:00,076 Speaker 4: you want to be like with the wave instead of 659 00:33:00,116 --> 00:33:03,956 Speaker 4: being overtaken by it, then it might pay to just 660 00:33:04,436 --> 00:33:05,676 Speaker 4: be informed early. 661 00:33:06,436 --> 00:33:09,036 Speaker 1: Okay, you've had time to think about this last word. 662 00:33:09,476 --> 00:33:11,716 Speaker 2: I just think the innovation has to be better and 663 00:33:11,836 --> 00:33:14,796 Speaker 2: cheaper to be adopted at scale, and I think a 664 00:33:14,836 --> 00:33:16,956 Speaker 2: lot of the debate infusion is often about how do 665 00:33:16,956 --> 00:33:19,716 Speaker 2: we make things better and not necessarily about how we 666 00:33:19,756 --> 00:33:22,196 Speaker 2: make things cheaper. And if you look at the sort 667 00:33:22,236 --> 00:33:24,276 Speaker 2: of pioneering companies that have come through, even the past 668 00:33:24,316 --> 00:33:27,396 Speaker 2: or of ten twenty years, they all had really cool technology, 669 00:33:27,396 --> 00:33:29,276 Speaker 2: a lot of smart people, but they also had a 670 00:33:29,276 --> 00:33:32,516 Speaker 2: business innovation which was intertwined with the tech innovation to 671 00:33:32,556 --> 00:33:34,676 Speaker 2: the point where they were almost one and the same. 672 00:33:34,916 --> 00:33:38,076 Speaker 2: If you can find businesses which which have that, that 673 00:33:38,076 --> 00:33:41,356 Speaker 2: can inform probabilities of success. 674 00:33:44,116 --> 00:33:47,316 Speaker 5: Still to come on the show. Audience questions. 675 00:33:48,076 --> 00:33:51,756 Speaker 1: The questions were truly interesting, and I'm not just saying that. 676 00:33:59,916 --> 00:34:02,276 Speaker 1: Thank you guys, and thank you all. This has been great. 677 00:34:02,436 --> 00:34:04,596 Speaker 1: We have some time for questions. There's a mic. Just 678 00:34:04,636 --> 00:34:07,236 Speaker 1: go ahead up and make a line at the mic 679 00:34:07,356 --> 00:34:08,316 Speaker 1: so that we can hear you. 680 00:34:11,956 --> 00:34:19,276 Speaker 7: Very small, mine, fussy, Thanks great panel, the sun and 681 00:34:19,276 --> 00:34:23,676 Speaker 7: window genuinely free, but solar and wind power not because 682 00:34:23,716 --> 00:34:27,996 Speaker 7: there is opex and capex and systems costs. You're and 683 00:34:28,076 --> 00:34:30,236 Speaker 7: I accept, by the way, very interesting point about all 684 00:34:30,236 --> 00:34:32,476 Speaker 7: the steps along the way from all of you. But 685 00:34:34,076 --> 00:34:39,076 Speaker 7: would fusion be really very cheap if not free, or 686 00:34:39,276 --> 00:34:41,956 Speaker 7: you know, is that based on the sort of current 687 00:34:42,036 --> 00:34:44,396 Speaker 7: view of what the capex of the sort of kit 688 00:34:44,476 --> 00:34:45,356 Speaker 7: would be and so on. 689 00:34:45,596 --> 00:34:46,356 Speaker 5: Thanks. 690 00:34:47,076 --> 00:34:49,156 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean my view is it will never be free, 691 00:34:49,756 --> 00:34:51,996 Speaker 6: but it will become cheaper and cheaper over time, and 692 00:34:52,236 --> 00:34:54,116 Speaker 6: as it does, actually I expect the TAM to grow, 693 00:34:54,196 --> 00:34:56,116 Speaker 6: so I look at it very that in TAM total 694 00:34:56,116 --> 00:35:00,276 Speaker 6: addressable market for the product. So just like semiconductors have 695 00:35:00,356 --> 00:35:02,636 Speaker 6: come down, Like I can't imagine in nineteen sixty if 696 00:35:03,036 --> 00:35:06,076 Speaker 6: you're a computer chip designer and someone told you compute 697 00:35:06,156 --> 00:35:08,676 Speaker 6: was going to be one one trillionth of what it 698 00:35:08,676 --> 00:35:11,396 Speaker 6: costs to you're probably like, that's free, but it actually has. 699 00:35:11,436 --> 00:35:14,596 Speaker 6: It's actually the biggest markets on Earth today, a trillion 700 00:35:14,636 --> 00:35:16,916 Speaker 6: dollar market, even though that cost has come down that much. 701 00:35:16,956 --> 00:35:18,716 Speaker 6: So no, I don't think it will be free. I 702 00:35:18,716 --> 00:35:20,436 Speaker 6: think it's just going to continue to come down as 703 00:35:20,436 --> 00:35:22,276 Speaker 6: we practice more and more, if that makes sense. 704 00:35:22,676 --> 00:35:24,396 Speaker 2: Can I just add one thing to that. I think 705 00:35:24,596 --> 00:35:27,236 Speaker 2: most of the energy technologies we've built built today, if 706 00:35:27,236 --> 00:35:29,356 Speaker 2: not all of them, Once they're built and in the ground, 707 00:35:29,356 --> 00:35:32,236 Speaker 2: they have a fixed capacity. So you can't get much 708 00:35:32,276 --> 00:35:34,636 Speaker 2: more out of your existing solar panel, your existing winter 709 00:35:34,756 --> 00:35:37,676 Speaker 2: bind or even you know your existing combustion engine with 710 00:35:37,996 --> 00:35:39,716 Speaker 2: a fusion reactor, there's going to be an awful lot 711 00:35:39,756 --> 00:35:42,636 Speaker 2: of software definition to it in terms of how it operates, 712 00:35:43,116 --> 00:35:45,316 Speaker 2: and so it will be unlike many other energy technologies 713 00:35:45,356 --> 00:35:48,956 Speaker 2: where the aftermarket for these could be really really valuable. 714 00:35:49,156 --> 00:35:50,756 Speaker 2: So you have if you have a fleet of fusion 715 00:35:50,756 --> 00:35:52,996 Speaker 2: reactors operating in this future. 716 00:35:52,876 --> 00:35:54,756 Speaker 1: And download the new firmware. 717 00:35:54,436 --> 00:35:57,036 Speaker 2: Exactly just like the you know, the over the software update. 718 00:35:57,076 --> 00:35:59,396 Speaker 2: But we'll make a real genuine impact of these businesses, 719 00:35:59,436 --> 00:36:02,796 Speaker 2: which are where the profitability margins of a utility companies 720 00:36:02,876 --> 00:36:05,196 Speaker 2: usually raise a thin So even if you can tweak 721 00:36:05,236 --> 00:36:09,236 Speaker 2: the output an extra five ten percent pure profit, that's 722 00:36:09,356 --> 00:36:12,116 Speaker 2: enormous for a company that owns a fusion reactor in 723 00:36:12,116 --> 00:36:14,396 Speaker 2: the future, and so I think that's one thing which 724 00:36:14,796 --> 00:36:16,436 Speaker 2: you'll be really nice to have in the future. There's 725 00:36:16,476 --> 00:36:18,476 Speaker 2: lots of things to get there beforehand. But to your 726 00:36:18,476 --> 00:36:22,396 Speaker 2: point around how does it keep on getting better after installation, 727 00:36:22,476 --> 00:36:24,676 Speaker 2: there's lots of paths where it could continue to get cheap, 728 00:36:24,676 --> 00:36:27,716 Speaker 2: but even without changing the hardware that's involved. And so 729 00:36:27,796 --> 00:36:29,716 Speaker 2: that's something that gives me a bit of optimism around 730 00:36:30,196 --> 00:36:32,716 Speaker 2: why this could still be relevant even though at the moment, 731 00:36:32,716 --> 00:36:35,316 Speaker 2: it looks much more expensive than solo wind et cetera. 732 00:36:35,556 --> 00:36:35,876 Speaker 1: Thank you. 733 00:36:36,516 --> 00:36:39,956 Speaker 8: I'm interested in parallel pathing what we need to get 734 00:36:39,996 --> 00:36:44,476 Speaker 8: to quantum computing. Infusion and lithium supply chains are a 735 00:36:44,596 --> 00:36:47,916 Speaker 8: challenge today. Do you see even with the higher energy 736 00:36:47,956 --> 00:36:52,756 Speaker 8: density profile, lithium supply chains needing to move forward for 737 00:36:52,876 --> 00:36:54,716 Speaker 8: us to really support these technologies. 738 00:36:55,756 --> 00:36:59,876 Speaker 6: Yes, the on the lithium supply, the energy density is everything, 739 00:37:00,156 --> 00:37:04,396 Speaker 6: and so when you look at ten million to one, 740 00:37:04,556 --> 00:37:06,156 Speaker 6: it won't even be a drop in the bucket compared 741 00:37:06,196 --> 00:37:08,516 Speaker 6: to the amount of lithium we use in batteries to 742 00:37:08,516 --> 00:37:10,916 Speaker 6: fuel the entire economy. And I think as you look 743 00:37:10,916 --> 00:37:14,116 Speaker 6: at fusion continuing to progress, perpor Meloanies point earlier, like 744 00:37:14,396 --> 00:37:17,636 Speaker 6: the innovation pipeline is insanely deep. Like my view, as 745 00:37:17,636 --> 00:37:20,236 Speaker 6: we're at the beginning of the Moor's Law curve, you know, 746 00:37:20,276 --> 00:37:23,036 Speaker 6: starting in nineteen sixty and new technology, it's not like 747 00:37:23,116 --> 00:37:25,276 Speaker 6: one we're going to commercialize like a tokamac and then 748 00:37:25,316 --> 00:37:27,676 Speaker 6: there will be no other innovation in fusion, like it's 749 00:37:27,716 --> 00:37:29,956 Speaker 6: going to accelerate, Like the amount of money going into it, 750 00:37:29,996 --> 00:37:33,636 Speaker 6: the amount of scientific capability going into quantum computing, AI like, 751 00:37:33,676 --> 00:37:36,036 Speaker 6: all these things are going to accelerate the development of fusion. 752 00:37:36,036 --> 00:37:39,196 Speaker 6: So there are fuel cycles that come beyond you know, 753 00:37:39,276 --> 00:37:42,076 Speaker 6: deteriment tritium that will not even need lithium. Right, You'll 754 00:37:42,156 --> 00:37:44,676 Speaker 6: you'll be going to even more abundant materials that are 755 00:37:44,716 --> 00:37:47,756 Speaker 6: even more accessible. Fundamentally, fusion fuels are the most abundant 756 00:37:47,756 --> 00:37:51,196 Speaker 6: materials in the whole universe. Light isotopes are the way 757 00:37:51,236 --> 00:37:54,756 Speaker 6: the entire universe makes energy. Like everything we have today, 758 00:37:55,116 --> 00:37:58,756 Speaker 6: solar fission, you know, wind, it all is ultimately a 759 00:37:58,796 --> 00:38:02,316 Speaker 6: form a diluted, highly diluted form of fusion energy. And 760 00:38:02,396 --> 00:38:04,316 Speaker 6: so when we can go right to the source, so life, 761 00:38:04,356 --> 00:38:05,796 Speaker 6: all of it, all of it. So when you go 762 00:38:05,876 --> 00:38:08,236 Speaker 6: right to the source, like fundamentally, I would argue that 763 00:38:08,276 --> 00:38:09,636 Speaker 6: the fuel is completely unlimited. 764 00:38:09,636 --> 00:38:11,316 Speaker 5: So that's that's not a thing I worry about. 765 00:38:11,596 --> 00:38:13,476 Speaker 1: Let's do this two more for people who are in 766 00:38:13,476 --> 00:38:14,316 Speaker 1: my all. 767 00:38:14,316 --> 00:38:17,116 Speaker 9: Right, sorry I got to bend over first. Thanks so 768 00:38:17,196 --> 00:38:20,156 Speaker 9: much for your presentation. I've really enjoyed it. My name 769 00:38:20,236 --> 00:38:23,356 Speaker 9: is Robin Carter. I just want to ask what role 770 00:38:23,396 --> 00:38:26,476 Speaker 9: do you think publicly funded research for academia still has 771 00:38:26,516 --> 00:38:31,236 Speaker 9: to play in the development of commercial fusion or The 772 00:38:31,236 --> 00:38:34,356 Speaker 9: way I originally wrote this question was please speak charitably 773 00:38:34,516 --> 00:38:37,996 Speaker 9: about research and academics. They're actually quite nice. 774 00:38:38,716 --> 00:38:41,556 Speaker 4: I think there's still a lot of talk at the 775 00:38:41,556 --> 00:38:45,076 Speaker 4: moment about public private partnerships. It's not that the private 776 00:38:45,276 --> 00:38:47,916 Speaker 4: I mean the media is particularly five ten years ago. 777 00:38:47,956 --> 00:38:50,236 Speaker 4: They love to portray it as us and them and 778 00:38:50,276 --> 00:38:53,156 Speaker 4: a race. And there are these pesky startups coming in 779 00:38:53,316 --> 00:38:56,036 Speaker 4: and all these upstarts who are going to like turn 780 00:38:56,076 --> 00:38:58,396 Speaker 4: fusion upside down because the public labs have been doing 781 00:38:58,436 --> 00:39:00,516 Speaker 4: it for ages, and the private companies are going to 782 00:39:00,556 --> 00:39:03,196 Speaker 4: take the price, you know, all of that, which I 783 00:39:03,196 --> 00:39:04,796 Speaker 4: don't fundamentally, I don't think it's true. 784 00:39:04,836 --> 00:39:06,036 Speaker 3: Like it's the it's the. 785 00:39:07,596 --> 00:39:10,876 Speaker 4: Goal of the national labs, the publicly funded labs to 786 00:39:10,916 --> 00:39:14,036 Speaker 4: develop the technology and like give it and not give it, 787 00:39:14,076 --> 00:39:15,796 Speaker 4: but you know, funnel it into the private sector so 788 00:39:15,836 --> 00:39:18,276 Speaker 4: that it can actually be made commercial. And so I 789 00:39:18,276 --> 00:39:21,556 Speaker 4: think this is the time where these public private partnerships 790 00:39:21,596 --> 00:39:25,036 Speaker 4: now are becoming more and more important. So there are 791 00:39:25,036 --> 00:39:27,876 Speaker 4: some critical challenges on the way to building power plants. 792 00:39:28,596 --> 00:39:33,396 Speaker 4: Things like we've mentioned tritium breeding, So there's what the 793 00:39:33,396 --> 00:39:35,836 Speaker 4: fuel tritium comes from, lithium. So you're going to have 794 00:39:35,836 --> 00:39:40,276 Speaker 4: to use neutrons to interact with lithium to make tritium. 795 00:39:40,396 --> 00:39:43,196 Speaker 4: This generally is going to happen around the outside of 796 00:39:42,716 --> 00:39:46,396 Speaker 4: the fusion device and that's where the heat exchanges will 797 00:39:46,436 --> 00:39:49,516 Speaker 4: be and things like that. There's materials is a big challenge, 798 00:39:49,556 --> 00:39:53,196 Speaker 4: like having developing materials that can actually survive long enough 799 00:39:53,236 --> 00:39:56,396 Speaker 4: and make an economic power plant. So there's a number 800 00:39:56,396 --> 00:39:59,436 Speaker 4: of number of challenges there's And these are when I 801 00:39:59,476 --> 00:40:02,316 Speaker 4: say challenges, these are the kind of things that are 802 00:40:02,636 --> 00:40:06,476 Speaker 4: let's say benefit knowledge that is beneficial for the entire 803 00:40:07,396 --> 00:40:11,476 Speaker 4: fusion community. So it's not really within the realms of 804 00:40:12,956 --> 00:40:16,596 Speaker 4: investment for the individual companies, shall we say, it's not 805 00:40:16,596 --> 00:40:18,676 Speaker 4: on the critical path of the individual companies. So that's 806 00:40:18,676 --> 00:40:21,676 Speaker 4: what that's where the academics can really come into play, 807 00:40:22,356 --> 00:40:26,276 Speaker 4: helping to up the knowledge level in areas that are 808 00:40:26,276 --> 00:40:28,676 Speaker 4: not on the critical path for the individual companies but 809 00:40:28,716 --> 00:40:30,116 Speaker 4: will help everybody. 810 00:40:30,316 --> 00:40:32,156 Speaker 1: Can we have one minute? Last one? 811 00:40:32,276 --> 00:40:34,716 Speaker 3: Go China. We just haven't talked about it. 812 00:40:34,676 --> 00:40:37,956 Speaker 1: Yet, China, China, one minute? Who wants it refect? 813 00:40:38,796 --> 00:40:41,116 Speaker 4: They're okay, they're putting a lot of investment in even 814 00:40:41,316 --> 00:40:45,156 Speaker 4: like even last year. They're really they've they've just gone 815 00:40:45,156 --> 00:40:47,356 Speaker 4: all in and in the last two years, i'd say, 816 00:40:47,356 --> 00:40:51,636 Speaker 4: really upping the investment funding research in academic labs as 817 00:40:51,676 --> 00:40:53,156 Speaker 4: well as private fusion companies. 818 00:40:53,476 --> 00:40:55,196 Speaker 3: They're making a big play. Do you want to add things? 819 00:40:55,516 --> 00:40:57,636 Speaker 6: I would just say, throwing money at the problems not 820 00:40:57,676 --> 00:41:00,716 Speaker 6: the answer, and I would reiterate, and I would just say, look, 821 00:41:00,756 --> 00:41:03,756 Speaker 6: I put my faith in American innovation and creativity above 822 00:41:03,996 --> 00:41:05,996 Speaker 6: just throwing a lot of money at national labs. I 823 00:41:05,996 --> 00:41:09,476 Speaker 6: think it comes back to incentive incentives, and people in 824 00:41:09,476 --> 00:41:12,996 Speaker 6: this country are properly incentivized to innovate a This is 825 00:41:13,036 --> 00:41:15,156 Speaker 6: not a scale up of an industry that's existed for 826 00:41:15,196 --> 00:41:16,476 Speaker 6: fifty sixty years, which. 827 00:41:16,356 --> 00:41:18,556 Speaker 5: China can copy and come in and do very, very easily. 828 00:41:18,636 --> 00:41:20,756 Speaker 6: So it's not that I don't think we shouldn't try, 829 00:41:20,876 --> 00:41:22,676 Speaker 6: like we need to put the same level of effort in, 830 00:41:22,716 --> 00:41:23,716 Speaker 6: but I think if we do, we win. 831 00:41:23,916 --> 00:41:26,556 Speaker 1: We started with capitalism, We're ending with capitalism. 832 00:41:27,356 --> 00:41:27,676 Speaker 5: I do. 833 00:41:39,636 --> 00:41:42,756 Speaker 1: That was the Great Fusion debate How far Away Are 834 00:41:42,796 --> 00:41:47,436 Speaker 1: We Really? Recorded Live at South By Southwest twenty twenty six. 835 00:41:48,676 --> 00:41:51,956 Speaker 1: Today's show was produced by Gabriel Hunter Chang. It was 836 00:41:52,236 --> 00:41:55,676 Speaker 1: edited by Lydia jen Kott and engineered by Sarah Bluer. 837 00:41:56,156 --> 00:41:59,316 Speaker 1: You can email us at problem at Pushkin dot fm. 838 00:41:59,916 --> 00:42:02,236 Speaker 1: I'm Jacob Goldstein and we'll be back next week with 839 00:42:02,316 --> 00:42:11,636 Speaker 1: another episode of What's Your Problem.