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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast. I'm gonna just mop that action

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Speaker 1: all all right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: We're throwing in job spec. I'm sitting it to cash

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Speaker 2: touch times.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kaby you want to

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Speaker 1: pull and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome every one to our second Propapalooza four the super

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Speaker 2: Bowl this weekend, super Bowl fifty nine. Here's what we're

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Speaker 2: gonna do. We grant and I are gonna be given

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Speaker 2: out our next set of props. And then at six

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Speaker 2: pm Eastern time, Chris Raybond and Sean Kerner will be

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Speaker 2: joined bye our good friend and guest Matthew Friedman at

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Speaker 2: six pm Eastern time again right here on the Action

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Speaker 2: Network YouTube and podcasts. Uh And because we need more bets,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna keep giving you all these props. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: sweat them together on Sunday. Before we do that, I

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Speaker 2: wanna let you all know for each pick, as soon

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Speaker 2: as we give them out, we'll be giving you easy

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Speaker 2: to use links to instantly place your bets right here

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Speaker 2: in the YouTube chat. Then as soon as we wrap up,

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Speaker 2: we'll be dropping a link in the episode description that

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Speaker 2: gives you access to all of the picks we've given

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Speaker 2: out here on this show. So it's time to get

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Speaker 2: to the picks. Grant, we'll have his first pick, Grant,

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Speaker 2: what do you got?

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Speaker 1: I was gonna go with heads again.

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Speaker 3: I'd still have the lean there, but I'm still undecided.

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Speaker 3: There's lots of things going for both heads and tails,

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Speaker 3: so instead I'm gonna go Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown score

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Speaker 3: now you can get the aame way from minus one

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Speaker 3: ten I think is the best line over at DK

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Speaker 3: all the way up to minus one twenty minus one

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Speaker 3: thirty in some spot, I still like it.

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Speaker 1: At minus twenty minus one thirty.

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Speaker 3: Might be getting a little bit thin of an edge,

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Speaker 3: but I still have edge out, and at minus one

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Speaker 3: thirty it's just very thin.

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Speaker 1: We have a huge sample size of Jalen Hurts in

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Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: I mean twelve out of eighteen games so far this season,

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Speaker 3: one of which he left in the first quarter, eleven

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Speaker 3: out of eighteen last season, twelve out of eighteen games

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Speaker 3: this season. Before last time these teams played each other,

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Speaker 3: he had three rushing touchdowns. We know if they get

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Speaker 3: within the one two yard line, they are going to

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Speaker 3: do the touch push like it's just what they've been

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Speaker 3: doing for literally three seasons now, and it's incredibly consistent.

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Speaker 3: This should be a high scoring, close game, one and

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Speaker 3: a half point spread, forty eight and a half total.

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Speaker 3: The Yes, the Eagles are probably gonna run the ball

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Speaker 3: decent amount with Barkley, but we keep saying, like, how

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Speaker 3: can he keep getting these one to two yard rushes.

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Speaker 1: It's just how this offense kind of goes.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they have had more third downs I think

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Speaker 3: than any other team this season because they get small

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Speaker 3: chunks of the yards because they brush foot ball and

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Speaker 3: they rush it very well, and they know that they

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Speaker 3: can get that one last one to two yards every

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Speaker 3: single time with the touch push, so they are more

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Speaker 3: more often going to be in that scenario than other teams.

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Speaker 3: He has been absolutely fantastic so far this year with

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Speaker 3: the touch push, as he has in prior years. Pass

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Speaker 3: he leads the league right with QB rushing attempts in

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Speaker 3: the red zone, specifically within the five yard line, by

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Speaker 3: massive margin. And we're getting it close to coinflip like

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Speaker 3: we're getting it at like a fifty two and a

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Speaker 3: half percent probability. Here, we have a three year sample sized,

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Speaker 3: and if we go with the playoffs, it's five and

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Speaker 3: three so far in his last three years, which is

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Speaker 3: all the times he's made the playoffs. Every single number

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Speaker 3: points to him being drastically more likely to get a

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Speaker 3: touchdown then not get a touchdown, and we're getting it

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Speaker 3: at minus one attempt. I don't generally like betting touchdown

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Speaker 3: bets at minus numbers.

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Speaker 1: One of the few scenarios.

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Speaker 3: Is running backs with huge workloads like Derrick Henry, but

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Speaker 3: I'm not going at at minus one to eighty. We're

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Speaker 3: getting a similar scenario, a similar chance of scoring for

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Speaker 3: a guy at minus one ten here. So Hurts, I

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Speaker 3: feel like the line is far too low at minus

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Speaker 3: one ten.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, And I'm gonna save my Jalen Hurts analysis here

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Speaker 2: because there will be more to come on Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 2: So for my first player prop, we're gonna head over

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Speaker 2: to fan Duel and it's a little tricky to find.

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Speaker 2: Instead of clicking into the game, right just if you're

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Speaker 2: at FANDAL, just load up, you know, go to the

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Speaker 2: NFL tab and then instead of clicking into the game.

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Speaker 2: Scroll over to receiving props because there is where my

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Speaker 2: first bet is going to be, and it is over

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Speaker 2: five and a half Eagles players to record a reception.

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Speaker 2: So kind of went through each player and looking at

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Speaker 2: aj Brown, Devonte Smith, Dallas Goddard, an injury, these players

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Speaker 2: are all ninety five percent plus, you know, ninety eight

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Speaker 2: percent plus to have a catch. Saquon Barkley based off

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Speaker 2: our projections, is around eighty five to ninety percent to

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Speaker 2: have a catch barring an injury. So we're already at

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Speaker 2: like four players that are probably gonna have a reception.

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Speaker 2: We need to find two more. Well, if we look

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Speaker 2: at Johan Dotson and whoever is the Eagles RB two, right,

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Speaker 2: of course Gainwell dealing with a concussion, hopefully he plays,

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Speaker 2: that certainly would help this. But even if it's will

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Speaker 2: Shipley replacing Gainwell, one or more of Dotson and the

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Speaker 2: Eagles RB two is around seventy five percent to have

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Speaker 2: a catch here, So that gets the five if it's

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Speaker 2: one of the two, and if it's both, we're already

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Speaker 2: over five and a half. If not, if it's just

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Speaker 2: one of the two, we need to find one more player. Well,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of ways that we can get one

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Speaker 2: more player to have a reception here, right, And I've

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Speaker 2: got this at about a fifty to fifty chance. Just

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Speaker 2: some other player gets a reception. You know, it could

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Speaker 2: be Johnny Wilson, it could be Grant cal Kata. Those

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Speaker 2: are the two most likely candidates outside of the players

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Speaker 2: we've named so far. You know, maybe Paris Campbell plays

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Speaker 2: one snap and one route and gets one reception. Or EJ.

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Speaker 2: Jenkins right tight end three. Maybe it's a random lineman right,

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Speaker 2: or Jalen Hurts on a gadget play, or maybe catches

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Speaker 2: his own batted pass.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: There's it's the Super Bowl. You're gonna pull out all

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Speaker 2: the stops here. Maybe you're gonna go with a fake punt.

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Speaker 2: We saw the Commanders do that last weekend, I say

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Speaker 2: two weekends ago now because of the bye week. But

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Speaker 2: you know, this is the Super Bowl. This is where

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Speaker 2: you've prepared all season and especially these last two weeks

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Speaker 2: for this game. Maybe your most successful trick play, that's

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Speaker 2: where you pull it out. So I think if any

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Speaker 2: spot is likely to have an extra player randomly get

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Speaker 2: a catch, it is going to be here. And also,

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Speaker 2: just both the times this year the Eagles have, you know,

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Speaker 2: come off of rest, whether it's the bye week or

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Speaker 2: coming into week one or even I say all three

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Speaker 2: times are coming into the Rams game. I should say,

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Speaker 2: no mind the Packers game. I was thinking there was

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Speaker 2: a bye week between the wild card. Ignore that part,

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Speaker 2: but you get the point. The two times they've come

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Speaker 2: off rest, they have had over five and a half

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Speaker 2: players catch a pass. So there could be an injury, right, Like,

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Speaker 2: maybe DeVante Smith gets a catch and part way through

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Speaker 2: the game he gets injured, and then another wide receiver

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Speaker 2: has to step up. There's lots of ways for this

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Speaker 2: sixth player to get a reception. So overall I have

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Speaker 2: this around forty seven and a half percent, which means

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Speaker 2: that's pretty solid value at plus one point thirty eight

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Speaker 2: at fandel, I'd play this to plus one fifteen.

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Speaker 1: I like it.

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Speaker 3: I like I was trying to figure out if there

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Speaker 3: was an easier way to find it, well, and you

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Speaker 3: were talking, and I think you just have to go

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Speaker 3: to the receptions page, trying to figure out a way

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Speaker 3: to search it, and none of.

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Speaker 1: The search results.

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Speaker 3: We're working and was hoping that would make it easier

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Speaker 3: for people, but you guys just got to scroll through

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Speaker 3: the receiving props.

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Speaker 1: It looks like.

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Speaker 2: That's right. So, uh, those are our first picks before

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Speaker 2: we get to our next picks. The stage is set

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Speaker 2: for Super Bowl fifty nine and all the prop bets

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Speaker 2: to come. That means now is the perfect time to

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Speaker 2: upgrade to an Action Pro subscription Because only Action Pro

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Speaker 2: subscribers get real time pick alerts from our experts like

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Speaker 2: super Bowl propmaster Sean Kerner and Chris Raybon, plus myself

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Speaker 2: and Grant. You'll get all the tools you need to

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Speaker 2: turn a profit betting in twenty twenty five. Right now,

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Speaker 2: new subscribers can get forty dollars off a full year

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Speaker 2: of Action Pro at Actionnetwork dot com dot com slash SB.

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Speaker 2: That's forty dollars off for the full year, so we'd

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Speaker 2: be covered for the next Super Bowl, March Madness, Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball season NBA, and even the next college football

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Speaker 2: on NFL seasons. So don't wait, vision visit Actionnetwork dot

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Speaker 2: Com slash SB to get forty dollars off of Action Pro.

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Speaker 2: All right, we've each given a pick. I am going

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Speaker 2: to take the lead here on this next one. This

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Speaker 2: next one is my favorite prop bet. It is going

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Speaker 2: to be over at DraftKings, uh, and it is listed

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Speaker 2: under rushing props. So last year I gave out Christian

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Speaker 2: McCaffrey's first rush attempt over three and a half yards

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Speaker 2: that sailed over. It was my favorite. Well, if you're

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Speaker 2: in the action net discord, I said I didn't have

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Speaker 2: any value on running back first rush attempts, but I

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Speaker 2: never said I didn't have value on the quarterback first

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Speaker 2: russia attempt. So I am going with Jalen Hurts over

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Speaker 2: two and a half rushing yards on his first rush attempt.

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Speaker 2: You can get that minus one thirty at DraftKings. And look,

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Speaker 2: this is a spot where I'm showing plenty of value

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Speaker 2: to the over hearts. First caring median this year is

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Speaker 2: six yards. And if we go back to twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: like you were talking about Grant the Toush push era,

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Speaker 2: his median is four and a half on fifty four

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Speaker 2: first carries. In fact, thirty three of the fifty four right,

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Speaker 2: because we're looking at two and a half and his

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Speaker 2: medians four and a half, thirty three of the fifty

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Speaker 2: fours at sixty one point one percent have cleared this

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Speaker 2: two and a half line. And of the fifty four

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Speaker 2: first carries, only seven of those were tush pushes, and

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Speaker 2: even one of those still cleared the two and a

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Speaker 2: half yards. He got three yards on one of those

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Speaker 2: seven tush pushes, so that means on forty seven non tushes.

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Speaker 2: That's a technical term here, his median was ten yards,

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Speaker 2: So you know, if he doesn't have a tush push

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Speaker 2: as his first carry, there's a very good chance this

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Speaker 2: clears two and a half.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: If we look just to expand the sample size at

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Speaker 2: first drive carries, his median is four yards. Only seven

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Speaker 2: of the sixty first drive carries were tush pushes in

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Speaker 2: those three years, thirty three of sixty I should say

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Speaker 2: thirty three, yeah, of sixty have cleared the two and

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Speaker 2: a half. Also, fifty eight percent of all of his

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Speaker 2: first quarter carries have cleared two and a half. So

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Speaker 2: this minus one thirty nine number is just too low.

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Speaker 2: I have this closer to like minus one p fifty plus.

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Speaker 2: He gets the added benefit here, and I say added

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Speaker 2: benefit of facing Kansas City. Kansas City's defense allows the

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Speaker 2: second highest rate of scrambles per drop back to the

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Speaker 2: quarterback position. A lot of that comes from they play

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Speaker 2: a hefty rate of man coverage. And also they use

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Speaker 2: a lot of too high safety. So when you're in

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Speaker 2: man coverage, you're turning your back to the receivers to

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Speaker 2: the quarterback, I should say. And when you have two

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Speaker 2: high safeties, that's one less man in the box. That

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Speaker 2: gives you ample opportunity to scramble. Kansas City right at

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Speaker 2: the average seven point nine yards per carry aloud on

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Speaker 2: QB scrambles, and Jalen Hurts averaging right around nine yards

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Speaker 2: as a median on his scrambles. So when you increase

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Speaker 2: that scrambled chance as well, that increases the chances his

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Speaker 2: first carry is a scramble, which tend to go for

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Speaker 2: eight nine yards. So, like I said, I like this

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Speaker 2: to around minus one fifty at two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Still like anything over three and a half at minus

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Speaker 2: one ten or better. Great, what's your second pick?

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Speaker 1: Second pick?

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Speaker 3: You can either go with this at four and a

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Speaker 3: half receptions, I think I'm going with the AJ Brown's over,

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Speaker 3: but four and a half reception, I think it's like

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Speaker 3: one minus one sixty at four and a half.

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Speaker 1: I took the over five and a half.

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Speaker 3: It's plus one twenty five over a bet three sixty five,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of people might look at his game

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Speaker 3: log and think this is probably not a great bet,

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Speaker 3: but he's getting a thirty one percent target chair in

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Speaker 3: the season. Chiefs have not been great versus wide receiver

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Speaker 3: one so far this season. I think the rank near

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Speaker 3: the bottom league in DVA versus true wide receiver one

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Speaker 3: so far this season, which if you look at their schedule,

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Speaker 3: it's just stilly how lucky they have been going up

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Speaker 3: against wide receivers. I mean, they haven't had a ton

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Speaker 3: of great ones, but Buffalo doesn't really have a true

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Speaker 3: wide receiver one. When they went up against the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: Palmer was the number one guy. Lad was obviously out.

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Speaker 3: When they went up against the the Bucks, both Evans

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Speaker 3: and Godwin we're out. Like so They've had a lot

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Speaker 3: of different ones, but the main ones that I've seen

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Speaker 3: are actually true wide receivers outside of Pickens who went

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Speaker 3: under and I think a lave who went under outside

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Speaker 3: of that, Collins five receptions, Collins seven receptions, Judy eleven,

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Speaker 3: Meyers six and six, Sutton six, Lad five, London six,

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Speaker 3: Flowers six.

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Speaker 1: So the majority of true wide receiver ones I've hit

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Speaker 1: the over at this Now we look.

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Speaker 3: At AJ Brown's overall game log, and you're not going

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Speaker 3: to see a ton of times hitting the over on this,

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Speaker 3: But guess what, how many times have the Eagles been

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Speaker 3: trailing this season. It's been against Washington, the game that

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Speaker 3: they lost Grand Hurtz didn't play that game. AJ Brown

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Speaker 3: had fifteen targets. It was against the Bucks. AJ Brown

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Speaker 3: didn't play, it was against the Falcons. AJ Brown didn't

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Speaker 3: play pretty much every single game this season that AJ

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Speaker 3: Brown is played in, with the exception of that Washington

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Speaker 3: game near the end of the season where Pickin was starting,

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Speaker 3: he has just played in games where they haven't really

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Speaker 3: been trailed, So we know that is going to get

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Speaker 3: a large tar share.

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Speaker 1: Heurts.

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Speaker 3: Majority of game AJ Brown played in, he has had

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Speaker 3: less than twenty eight total passing attempts. Lying for this

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Speaker 3: right now is twenty seven and a half. But we

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Speaker 3: look at the games where he had twenty eight plus

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Speaker 3: pass attempts. With aj Brown playing Washington last game, obviously

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Speaker 3: he had six receptions and Hurts had twenty eight pass attempts.

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Speaker 3: We look back further when we see Pittsburgh he had

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Speaker 3: thirty two pass attempts. AJ Brown had fifteen target or

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Speaker 3: eleven targets, eight receptions, not many other times outside that

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Speaker 3: most of them are earlier on the season with their trailing,

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Speaker 3: But ten targets in the New Packers game for Hurts

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Speaker 3: when he had thirty four pass attempts. So it's heavily

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Speaker 3: correlated obviously with the biggest target share guy in the offense.

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Speaker 3: How many times Hurts is going to throw? And the

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Speaker 3: line is higher than it normally is because they're a

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Speaker 3: one and a half point dog and there's a forty

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Speaker 3: eight and a half point total in this spot here,

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Speaker 3: So everything's pointing to most likely more volume for Brown.

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Speaker 3: More important game means probably going to have a higher

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Speaker 3: target share than he normally does because he is the

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Speaker 3: best offensive weapon there outside of maybe Saquon Barkley, most

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Speaker 3: likely Saequon Barkley. So this is just a spot where

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Speaker 3: we should see a decent amount of increase in volume

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Speaker 3: for aj Brown against a team that has been susceptible

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Speaker 3: for wide receiver ones. So I like the over five

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Speaker 3: and a half. If you want to go over four

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Speaker 3: and a half, we want to be one of those

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Speaker 3: game log watchers. I think he's hit that in sixty

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Speaker 3: percent of games so far. This season that he's played

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Speaker 3: with Hurts. But I'm going with the over five and

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Speaker 3: a half and if you want to go over six

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Speaker 3: and a half, over seven and a half, I don't

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Speaker 3: mind either of those lines either, because I think Brown

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Speaker 3: could be in for a decent amount of volume. Eight

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Speaker 3: and a half I think is sitting as high as

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Speaker 3: like plus four eighty in some spots, so you can

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Speaker 3: liner this up as high as you want. I'm sticking

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Speaker 3: with the semi safe one at over five and a

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Speaker 3: half at plus one twenty five, but feel free.

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Speaker 1: It's a Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: I know I probably will have money on every single

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Speaker 3: one of those ladders all the way up.

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Speaker 1: To nine US.

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Speaker 3: Probably not a ton, but just to make it more interesting,

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Speaker 3: because it's a game I want to stay entirely tuned to,

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Speaker 3: so once I've already made all my money, I want

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Speaker 3: to have a reason to keep rooting for AJ Brown.

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Speaker 2: There you go, so grant with AJ Brown over five

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Speaker 2: and a half receptions. He's even fine if you want

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Speaker 2: to ladder it. I last week talked about laddering Dallas Gottard,

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Speaker 2: so you know there could be a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a correlation here. If the Eagles are behind They're gonna

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Speaker 2: have to keep throwing and hopefully both hit. But if not,

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Speaker 2: at least one of the two shit hit and you're

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Speaker 2: getting them at plus money on those ladders, So you

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Speaker 2: would end up making money if one of these two

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Speaker 2: ladders ends up hitting. So I talked about the Action

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Speaker 2: Network Discord briefly earlier, but I just want to remind

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Speaker 2: you all make sure to join the Action Network Discord

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00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:52,200
Speaker 2: if you haven't, at Discord dot gg slash Action Network,

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00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 2: because we will be doing our show live show about

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Speaker 2: what Happens Live at halftime of the Super Bowl. Who

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Speaker 2: needs Kendrick Lamar. You can't make money watching Kendrick Lamar,

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00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:08,880
Speaker 2: but you can potentially make money betting during halftime of

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00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,880
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl live betting with our live betting show

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00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 2: bellt What Happens Live. We're using my in game player

347
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:20,240
Speaker 2: prop model along with Sean Kerner's projections to live bet

348
00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 2: and man, we've been having an awesome NFL Playoffs live betting,

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00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,440
Speaker 2: So again, make sure to join the Action Network Discord

350
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:31,119
Speaker 2: at Discord dot gg slash Action Network. All right, I

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Speaker 2: have one more pick for you all, and again it

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Speaker 2: is a Jalen Hurts prop and the way to find

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Speaker 2: this one again, is it DraftKings. But you're gonna have

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Speaker 2: to scroll over all the way top to game leaders,

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Speaker 2: and then once you're over on the game leader's tab,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna need to scroll and find first quarter leaders.

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Speaker 2: And that's because I'm going with Jalen Hurts to have

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Speaker 2: the most first quarter rushing yards at plus nine to

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Speaker 2: fifty at DraftKings. Now, if we look at just the

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Speaker 2: Eagles side of the ball here first, Jalen Hurts has

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Speaker 2: had the most first quarter rushing yards in two of

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Speaker 2: seventeen games this year. I know he's played eighteen, but

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Speaker 2: there was one where the leading rusher was zero yards, right,

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Speaker 2: So we're not gonna count that one because everybody tied.

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Speaker 2: But in the other seventeen, Hertz has led in two

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Speaker 2: of seventeen. Right, that's one out of every eight and

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Speaker 2: a half. If that was the true long term rate,

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Speaker 2: then plus seven to fifty would be fair value. So

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Speaker 2: plus nine to fifty already at good distance off from that. Now,

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Speaker 2: even though he led in two of those seventeen games,

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Speaker 2: he actually had twenty three yards in both of those

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Speaker 2: that he led. But there were two other gameshere he

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Speaker 2: had forty one and forty four first forty yards, yet

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Speaker 2: say Kwan Barkley still led in the first quarter in

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Speaker 2: both of those games. But here the Chiefs, and you know,

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Speaker 2: Steve Spagnolo has said they're really focusing all all week,

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Speaker 2: all two weeks on stopping say Kuon Barkley, and that

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00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,639
Speaker 2: could open up the potential for Jalen Hurts here and

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Speaker 2: I talked about Jalen Hurts first rush over two and

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Speaker 2: a half. Well, of the four quarters, the first quarter

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Speaker 2: is where Jalen Hurts has his highest yards per carry.

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Speaker 2: So you know, we can expect instead of twenty five

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Speaker 2: percent of his rushing yards to come in the first quarter,

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Speaker 2: probably more like thirty thirty five percent of his total

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Speaker 2: rushing yards to potentially come in the first quarter. Now,

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Speaker 2: unless the Eagles are trailing late, they need to do

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Speaker 2: a bunch of scrambling. But even then, if you're doing

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Speaker 2: a bunch of scrambling, you're running the clock, which isn't

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Speaker 2: exactly the thing you'd want to do if you're trailing.

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Speaker 2: So I really like this first quarter angle the Chiefs. Again,

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Speaker 2: they allow scrambles at an incredibly high rate, and those

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Speaker 2: go for much more yardage than designed runs. And you

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Speaker 2: know Hurts median of nine yards per carry. Chiefs allow

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Speaker 2: almost eight yards per carry on scrambles. There's a chance,

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Speaker 2: you know, we see Jalen Hurts run for twenty plus

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Speaker 2: yards here in the first quarter, and if we look

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Speaker 2: at the Chiefs side of the ball, I think it's

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Speaker 2: pretty unlikely a Chief is going to lead here.

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Speaker 1: Look.

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Speaker 2: I mean, even if we look at Kareem right, his

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00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 2: line is around forty four and a half ish yards,

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Speaker 2: give or take a little bit. You know, you divide

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Speaker 2: that by four. It doesn't exactly work like that, like

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00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: I talked about with Hurts, but you know we're talking.

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Speaker 2: He's probably not getting twenty first quarter yards. Similar for Pachecko,

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00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 2: similar for ma Homes he got Zavor You're worthy in

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00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: the mix. So I don't really expect the chief to

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00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 2: lead the first quarter rushing yards, and if they do,

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00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 2: it's probably gonna be because the Eagles also didn't get

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Speaker 2: a lot of rushing yards. Right. The Eagles of the

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Speaker 2: number one rush defense in the NFL, and Chiefs have

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Speaker 2: a very good run defense themselves. They're number nine by

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00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: defensive rush DVOA. But that tends to come more against

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00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 2: these designed runs with Barkley and potentially hurts. But if

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Speaker 2: all it takes is Hurts to scramble for a long

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00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:56,920
Speaker 2: run here and I talked about that the Chiefs allow

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00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:01,199
Speaker 2: the second highest rate of scrambles per dropback, So I

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00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: think this is a spot where we got to take

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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts. And really, you know, the Eagles are probably

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Speaker 2: the team to have the leading rusher here as far

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00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 2: as the coin toss right, who is more likely to

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00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 2: have the ball in the first quarter. Both coaches have

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00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 2: deferred one hundred percent of the time each of the

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00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 2: last two years, So I would expect this to be

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Speaker 2: a spot where there's no edge in the first quarter

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Speaker 2: in terms of which team has the ball first. So

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Speaker 2: in that case, we can just go ahead and play

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Speaker 2: what we think is going to happen. And I think

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Speaker 2: this is a spot where Jalen Hurts. Plus nine to

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00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 2: fifty is too long. I got this closer to like

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Speaker 2: plus eight twenty five plus eight fifty in that neighborhood.

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Speaker 2: For example, if you look at this at FANDLE, it's

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Speaker 2: at plus seven ninety at FANDLE, So I love the

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00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 2: plus nine fifty at DraftKings. Grant any last thoughts on that.

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00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts prop.

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00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 1: Now, I mean I love it.

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00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 3: I mean we talked about you talked about kream Hunt

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00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 3: most likely not leading on that side. Yeah, it's clicky

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00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 3: because he's probably going to need five six rush attempts

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00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 3: in order to get up to twenty yards. I mean,

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00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 3: he's not a guy that can break off too often

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00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 3: a ten plus yard rush.

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00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,880
Speaker 1: I mean Pachecko occasionally can, but.

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00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 3: Still guy that's going to pound it up the middle,

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00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 3: try and get an extra yard or two and most

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00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 3: likely end up with five or six. So you have

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00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 3: guys on the chief side of things where I think

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00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 3: mahomes the most likely guy to be leading out of

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00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 3: the chief side of things at rushing yards after the

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00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 3: first quarter because he can do a fifteen to twenty

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00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 3: yard scramble. And that's kind of contingent on Barkley not

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00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: doing too much and Jalen Hurt's doing too much. So

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00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,400
Speaker 3: the overall median outcome for Hunt Pachecko is pretty darn

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00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 3: close to their overall ceiling outcomes in the first quarter.

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00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, you're really just going kind of Hurts versus Barkley,

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00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 3: and Hurts absolutely has the ability to break off a

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00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 3: thirty forty yard in any of the quarters of the game,

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00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 3: and he's probably going to be rushing the ball decent

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00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 3: amount of There's been talking about how the Chiefs are

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00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 3: probably going to try and blitz a decent amount in

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00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,439
Speaker 3: the spot because of how much Hurts has struggled against

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00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 3: the blitz so far this season.

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00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 1: So if that happens, he's probably going to end up

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00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: taking on more.

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00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 3: You talked about the designed runs versus actually scrambling runs,

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00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 3: which are going to give you the largest dealing. So yeah,

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00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 3: everything you said is just absolutely perfect there. And now

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00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 3: I'm trying to currently on the DraftKings page trying to

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00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 3: figure out if I can same game parlay with something

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00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 3: else but doesn't look like a yeah, I'm going to

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00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 3: be able to plus nine to fifty is what I

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00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 3: have to deal.

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Speaker 1: With, and I am entirely okay with that.

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00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: There we go, And to put a boat tie on

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00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 2: one thing I said on the Eagles over five and

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00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: a half players with the reception, they did have three

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00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 2: weeks of three games I should say, with long rest

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00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 2: the wild card game against the Packers. Remember in Week eighteen,

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00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 2: none of the starters played, so that's kind of like

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00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,959
Speaker 2: a bye week there for the starter. So I was

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00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: thinking correctly, I just couldn't remember it off the cuff there.

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Speaker 2: But that will do it for our Propapalooza number two,

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Speaker 2: I should say, week two. So thank you all for watching.

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybond, Sean Kerner and special guest Matthew Friedman will

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00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 2: be back right here in less than two hours six

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00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 2: pm Eastern Time to give their favorite props. So until then,

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00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 2: and until the Super Bowl where we see you about

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00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 2: what happens live, We'll catch.

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00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 3: You all later.

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Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,280
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00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,440
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