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Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Scott Bogman. Follow me on the Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Bogman Sports, joined as always by the incomparable Thor

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Speaker 1: nice Strom. Follow him on the Twitter at thor ku. Hey, look, man,

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Speaker 1: we got through week one. We got through, like, you know,

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Speaker 1: the the outside sale of week zero, and then we

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Speaker 1: got the whole thing of Week one. It was intense.

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Speaker 2: It was fun.

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Speaker 1: That Florida stay LSU game was incredible down to the end.

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Speaker 1: NC State and ECU had a great finish. A lot

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Speaker 1: of fun games week one. Even more good action coming

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Speaker 1: week two. Thor So, how is week one for you?

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Speaker 1: And are you ready and all juiced up for Week two?

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Speaker 3: It was great? Yeah, having the five straight days of

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Speaker 3: college football. Last night with no college football on, I

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Speaker 3: was like, you know, an anchorman when Burgundy's just wandering

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Speaker 3: around the streets with the warm milk. It was like, me, last.

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Speaker 2: Night was a bad choice.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, college football was a bad choice. But you know,

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Speaker 3: we got to get through a couple more days and

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Speaker 3: then we'll get it back. But yeah, having the full

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Speaker 3: card in week one was super fun.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And actually, you know how we usually are going

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Speaker 1: to do these shows. Is We're gonna kick off start

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Speaker 1: talking about the Thursday and Friday games. But the next

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Speaker 1: two weeks we got to find something extra because there's

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Speaker 1: not a lot of action on There's no action on

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Speaker 1: either Thursday and only a couple games on Friday.

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Speaker 2: This week.

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Speaker 1: The Friday games are Louisville at UCF. UCF is a

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Speaker 1: six and a half point favorite, the over sixty one

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: There.

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Speaker 1: I know you are a little on the Louisville side,

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Speaker 1: but probably more of a stay away. Boise State is

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Speaker 1: a sixteen and a half point favorite at New Mexico

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Speaker 1: the overs forty four. There. You like Boise State pretty

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Speaker 1: handedly in that game, So let's start with that one thorpe.

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Speaker 1: We will obviously talk about the top five games also

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Speaker 1: and then the games that you like the most this week,

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Speaker 1: but let's start out with Boise State and New Mexico.

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Speaker 1: Why why is Boisse tak going to win this game

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Speaker 1: by more than three touchdowns?

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Speaker 3: Well, the reason the line is depressed because Boise State

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Speaker 3: stunk in the first half last week. But that was

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Speaker 3: a Hank Bachmeyer production, you know what I mean. He

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Speaker 3: had thrown three turnovers and been benched and Boise State

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Speaker 3: had gotten down by three touchdowns before half the people

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Speaker 3: had even tuned in, you know, And so that game

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Speaker 3: totally got away from Boise immediately because of all these

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Speaker 3: turnovers from the starting quarterback and then they yanked him.

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Speaker 3: The backup looked pretty dang good. This kid named like

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Speaker 3: Teylon Green or I think is what his name is.

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Speaker 3: But not only do he look good as a freshman,

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Speaker 3: but he looked good in a far different way than

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Speaker 3: we have seen recent Boise State quarterbacks. Green ended up

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Speaker 3: rushing for more than one hundred yards against Oregon State.

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Speaker 3: Became the first quarterback since I believe twenty fourteen for

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Speaker 3: Boise State to rush for more than one hundred yards.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be interesting in this game who they

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Speaker 3: go with a quarterback? Do you go with the old

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Speaker 3: guard in Bachmeyer, who previously the number one thing you

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Speaker 3: could say about him was consistency, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 3: he was more you know, like the vein of like

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Speaker 3: the guys that they had in the past, like Ripping,

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Speaker 3: you know, being one of the most recent examples where

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Speaker 3: you know, you felt like you were going to get

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Speaker 3: the accuracy, maybe not the explosive stuff, but you know,

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Speaker 3: and you weren't gonna get anything outside of the pocket,

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Speaker 3: but you didn't get that last time. Is he going

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Speaker 3: to revert back into to old Hank or is he

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Speaker 3: gonna be bad Hank again if you go with him,

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Speaker 3: or are you gonna go with with with Green? And

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Speaker 3: then you you know, probably you're giving your offense more

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Speaker 3: variants there because he is less well known, but you're

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Speaker 3: certainly going to be improving the mobility behind center in

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Speaker 3: a way that again we haven't seen in almost a

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Speaker 3: decade of Boise State. So so that's one of the

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Speaker 3: interesting things to look at. But the Boise State also

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Speaker 3: had a couple of injuries in the first week. One

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Speaker 3: of them was to a rotational receiver, shouldn't matter much.

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Speaker 3: The other one was to their their top corner back.

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Speaker 3: But in this game that doesn't really matter either because

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Speaker 3: New Mexico can't throw the ball. Yeah, it's you know,

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Speaker 3: Miles Kendrick was was, you know, the old Kansas backup quarterback.

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Speaker 3: He was the the transferred over there. He's just a

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Speaker 3: little scrambler and they're trying to incorporate more option concepts

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Speaker 3: into their offense as well. New Mexico just wants to run, run, run.

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Speaker 3: Nothing that happened with Boise State is going to compromise

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Speaker 3: defending that. And so I think Boise State matches up

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Speaker 3: pretty well defense against offense against New Mexico, and Boise

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Speaker 3: State's quarterback play can definitely not be as bad as

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Speaker 3: it was last week. I think last week's the result

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Speaker 3: was a little bit fluky in that the game was

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Speaker 3: already over, you know, midway through the second quarter because

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Speaker 3: of these really bad decisions by Bachmeier. It's not a

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Speaker 3: game that you can put a lot of emphasis in

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Speaker 3: in terms of the predictability going forward, just because the

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Speaker 3: game script was you know, got away from both teams

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Speaker 3: right away, just because the way that things start out

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Speaker 3: first twenty minutes. So I do like Boise State. I

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Speaker 3: feel like this line has gone too far the other way,

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Speaker 3: you know, sort of making an indictment of the way

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Speaker 3: that Boise State played in Week one, when I don't

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Speaker 3: believe that that's transferable the week too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I'm with you right there.

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Speaker 1: This is you know, this might be an avoid because

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Speaker 1: we don't know what's going on with the quarterback at

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Speaker 1: Boise State. Like I would understand that, but I don't

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Speaker 1: think it really matters who starts a quarterback for Boise

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Speaker 1: State in this one. I think they're gonna smash New Mexico,

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Speaker 1: even in a road game. So it's a big line.

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Speaker 1: I understand not liking it, but it's also you get

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Speaker 1: itchy on Friday with no action on Thursday. For college,

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Speaker 1: you start to get itchy on Friday. Give me something.

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Speaker 1: If you're gonna take something on Friday, I would lay

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Speaker 1: the points and take Poise State, that's for sure.

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Speaker 3: For sure, And you know, going to the other one,

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Speaker 3: it's another example where you're going to get value. In

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Speaker 3: this case, it's on the underdog, but because of a

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Speaker 3: Week one result, right like Louisville shockingly gets stomped by

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Speaker 3: Syracuse the books, you know, and I downgraded Louisville in

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Speaker 3: my power rankings sure fairly significantly, and yet still my

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Speaker 3: line on this game is you se minus one point seven,

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Speaker 3: whereas Vegas is is minus five and a half. That

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Speaker 3: line being where it is, that spread being where it is.

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Speaker 3: It's more indicative of Vegas responding to the market, which

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Speaker 3: does not want to bet on Louisville after what it

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Speaker 3: saw in Week one, as opposed to reality you would

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Speaker 3: expect at least somewhat of Louisville cannot play as bad

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Speaker 3: as they did in Week one. I just don't believe it,

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Speaker 3: Like I don't believe that that's going to be the

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Speaker 3: team that they are all season long. So I do

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Speaker 3: think there's a little bit of value on Louisville. It's

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Speaker 3: just you have to have some courage to bet them

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Speaker 3: because of the way they looked in Week one.

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Speaker 1: Stones, you gotta have the stones to bet on Louisville.

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Speaker 1: You're absolutely right. I don't have it after seeing that game.

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Speaker 1: I just don't want to mess with Louisville at all whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: I think if I've taken something in that game, it's

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Speaker 1: probably the under sixty one and a half because Louisville's

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Speaker 1: offense looks so pathetic. But I'm probably just gonna not

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Speaker 1: touch it.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: Here's some games, and obviously these number change. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, any of you that have a you know,

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Speaker 1: a subscription to some of these places, you can see

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Speaker 1: where the money is getting laid laid so you can

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Speaker 1: see where the cash is going, where the tickets are going,

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Speaker 1: and that kind of stuff. I just wanted to go

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Speaker 1: over some cash games that are getting overwhelming majority right now. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: the majority of the bets come in Friday and Saturday,

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Speaker 1: So this is just for the early betters, but usually

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Speaker 1: the early betters of the sharps, you know, the smart

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Speaker 1: people that work within the industry and things like that.

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Speaker 1: So I just wanted to go over a couple of

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Speaker 1: these games. You're gonna run down them real quick, and

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Speaker 1: you talk about any of them that intrigue you. We got,

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Speaker 1: you know, a majority of the cash, and I want

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Speaker 1: to give out numbers because those are usual behind paywalls

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Speaker 1: and stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: But Ohio State.

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Speaker 1: Laying the forty four and a half enormous number against

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Speaker 1: Arkansas State has a lot wake Forest minus thirteen and

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Speaker 1: a half at Vandy is getting a lot of love.

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Speaker 1: UTSA minus two and a half against Army South Carolina

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Speaker 1: at Arkansas over fifty three is getting some love, surprisingly

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Speaker 1: to me, at Charlotte under sixty five and a half

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Speaker 1: is getting a lot of love. ECU minus twelve and

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Speaker 1: a half versus ODU UAB laying nine and a half

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Speaker 1: at Liberty. Liberty is down a quarterback, most likely Syracuse

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Speaker 1: at Yukon under forty nine is getting bet on EMU

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Speaker 1: plus eleven and a half at Louisiana, Arizona State at

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State over fifty seven and a half in BC

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Speaker 1: plus two and a half verset Virginia Tech, which both

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Speaker 1: those teams look pathetic last week. But so you know,

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Speaker 1: mainly we're laying points here, a couple over unders there.

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Speaker 1: I think that was four over unders and what would

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Speaker 1: that be the c one two, three, four, five over unders?

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Speaker 1: And then the rest against the spread. Not many where

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Speaker 1: we're taking points outside of EMU plus eleven and a half.

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Speaker 1: Any of these that that you like thor and you're

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Speaker 1: kind of with the public on, we.

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Speaker 3: Might we might have to go over one more time.

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Speaker 3: My memories, my SNAM memory is pretty good.

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Speaker 2: But not that good it I thought you're on the sheet.

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Speaker 1: That's my bad. I will send it to you again.

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Speaker 3: Ohio State. That line is objectively fair. That's right where

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Speaker 3: my my number is on it. The the Army one

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Speaker 3: was interesting because that is one of the examples this

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Speaker 3: week where the market favorite is different than mine, where

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Speaker 3: I think the wrong team is favorite. My line on

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Speaker 3: that game is Army minus one point one. UTSA is

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Speaker 3: minus two and a half. Live. You know UTSA A

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Speaker 3: lot of people were watching when they kept that game

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Speaker 3: really close against Houston. They easily could have won that game.

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Speaker 3: I think that they're getting a little bit of credit

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Speaker 3: for that, which might explain why there's that three point

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Speaker 3: six point discrepancy. One of the ones that I liked

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Speaker 3: really early in the one of my early week bets

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Speaker 3: was on Syracuse that that was the line that opened

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Speaker 3: at minus twenty and a half. That was a mistake

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Speaker 3: by Vegas. They they opened that too low. It seemed

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Speaker 3: like that they were nodding at, you know, a better

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Speaker 3: performance coming up by Yukon than we had expected. Played

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Speaker 3: tightle with Utah. State might have won that game if

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Speaker 3: their starting quarterback hadn't gotten hurt beat the FCS opponent

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Speaker 3: last week. But the Vegas did not seem to be

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Speaker 3: recognizing that Syracuse was the team that just absolutely dropped

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Speaker 3: the hammer on Louisville, and so Syracuse wasn't getting the

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Speaker 3: respect that I felt that they would get. And I

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Speaker 3: talked with Thomas about that on her Sunday show. That

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Speaker 3: line went from twenty and a half to now it's

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Speaker 3: twenty two and a half or whatever. I expect that

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Speaker 3: line to be like twenty four at kick under.

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Speaker 1: That's the one that's getting bet on the under the

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Speaker 1: Syracuse game.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: This once again feels like it feels weird, like they

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Speaker 1: gave Yukon the respect. But then you would think this

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Speaker 1: number is under because traditionally both these offenses have stuck recently,

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Speaker 1: but they both look good. So under forty nine and

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Speaker 1: a half and getting bet on a lot, I don't.

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Speaker 1: It just feels like I don't want to touch it.

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Speaker 1: It feels the opposite of where I think. So I

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Speaker 1: think it almost feels like somebody knows something I don't know.

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Speaker 1: You know, So what do you think of that over under?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I probably won't touch it either. But Yukon's defense

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Speaker 3: has looked better than we expected it to be in

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Speaker 3: these first couple of weeks. They were hitting hard in

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Speaker 3: that Utah State game and people were pursuing the ball,

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Speaker 3: whereas in recent years you didn't see that kind of ever,

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Speaker 3: people flying around or you know, like you know, when

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Speaker 3: the guy got tackled, there's like four or five Yukon

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Speaker 3: guys around. We saw that in week one, Week two,

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Speaker 3: they shut out the lights on the FCS opponent. But

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Speaker 3: you know, I mean, I mean, but for Yukon over

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Speaker 3: the last couple of years. I guess that was impressive

239
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Speaker 3: holding that team to three points or whatever. Syracuse defense

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Speaker 3: looked awesome in Week one, so yeah, I mean, I

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Speaker 3: guess if I was a lean one way, it probably

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Speaker 3: would be the under. But we'll have to see how

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Speaker 3: Yukon can deal with that Syracuse offense that now has

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Speaker 3: a passing element, whereas previously it was just Schrader and

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Speaker 3: Tucker running out the shotgun spread. Now with Robert and

246
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Speaker 3: I coming in, the offensive coordinator that they got from Virginia,

247
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Speaker 3: a guy who's known for the sideline to sideline passing game.

248
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Speaker 3: Garrett Traiders passing in Week one ticked way up against Louisville.

249
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Speaker 3: Louisville certainly has a better defense than Yukon does, even

250
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Speaker 3: though Louisville doesn't appear to have a great one. So

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Speaker 3: you would think that Syracuse will be able to move

252
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Speaker 3: the ball on Yukon, but it probably a stay away

253
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Speaker 3: from me overall.

254
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Speaker 1: A couple of these other games will just reiterate him

255
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Speaker 1: here since you're not on the sheep, but wake fours

256
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Speaker 1: by thirteen and a half at Vandy, utsa two and

257
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Speaker 1: a half at Army.

258
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Speaker 3: Let's let's stop right there. So okay, good, Wake Forest

259
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Speaker 3: is getting Sam Hartman back. That line had started had

260
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Speaker 3: opened at six and a half, which was probably a

261
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Speaker 3: nod towards Vandy starting out too and all. But when

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Speaker 3: once that that Hartman thing was announced, the line jumps

263
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Speaker 3: up six points. So that is interesting in and of itself.

264
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Speaker 3: That tells you that Las Vegas, that market, that that

265
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Speaker 3: hive mind, they think Sam Hartman is worth six points

266
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Speaker 3: on the spread I have. I've been to agree with

267
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Speaker 3: them on that he's worth a ton to that team,

268
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Speaker 3: and you're getting him back now. I would love to

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Speaker 3: fade Vandy on this number, because they're they're two and

270
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Speaker 3: all start it's it's a mirage.

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Speaker 2: Right, like, oh, come on, I know it is.

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Speaker 3: Hawaii now is one of the bottom three FBS teams

273
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Speaker 3: in my power rankings. They're down there with New Mexico

274
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Speaker 3: State and I think UMAs is the other one. And

275
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Speaker 3: then last week Vanderbilt beat an FCS team by like eleven,

276
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Speaker 3: you know, And so they're definitely not as good as

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Speaker 3: as people think you're. You know that at least that

278
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Speaker 3: the record indicates. Whereas Wake Forest now, you'd think with

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Speaker 3: Hartman back that they they're not going to look exactly

280
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Speaker 3: like they did last year when they were so awesome

281
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Speaker 3: right away you wouldn't think, but they're they're going to

282
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,160
Speaker 3: start to get back closer to that, so you have

283
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Speaker 3: to tick them way up. It's just with the number

284
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Speaker 3: jumping up to where it did, that one goes right

285
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Speaker 3: in line with what my number was. My number on

286
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Speaker 3: that game is wake for It's minus twelve point four,

287
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Speaker 3: so it's it's basically right there at the thirteen number.

288
00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,360
Speaker 3: So I'm probably gonna stay away with from that, even

289
00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:07,480
Speaker 3: though my lean definitely would be towards Wait for Us.

290
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,320
Speaker 1: How about UTSA minus two and a half at an Army, Yeah,

291
00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:12,440
Speaker 1: so that.

292
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Speaker 3: One, I'm definitely leaning towards Army. Definitely my bet army

293
00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,240
Speaker 3: because I feel that Army should be favored, you know.

294
00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:20,560
Speaker 3: That's why I have them at minus one, Army at

295
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,520
Speaker 3: minus one point one. Liveline on that is uts A

296
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,200
Speaker 3: minus two and a half. And like I said, I

297
00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:27,320
Speaker 3: think that the reason this.

298
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,440
Speaker 1: Is a market line correct or like this is so

299
00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 1: we see UTSA take Houston to the brink three overtimes.

300
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 1: Their offense look good even though they lost in Seer

301
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:39,880
Speaker 1: McCormick and all that stuff, and Army is just known

302
00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,560
Speaker 1: as a team that they're hit or miss. Sometimes they

303
00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:44,680
Speaker 1: hit and look good and go to bowl games. And

304
00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,560
Speaker 1: SPANKA team like Houston who doesn't show up sometimes you know,

305
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:50,800
Speaker 1: they're on the triple option. They win four games for

306
00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,400
Speaker 1: the whole season. So this, to me, this is a

307
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,080
Speaker 1: you know, this is a perception line. You just saw

308
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Speaker 1: Utsa take a ranked team to the brink. They did

309
00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,720
Speaker 1: drop it, but they're very good and they're coming off,

310
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Speaker 1: you know, a very good season last year. Army can

311
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,840
Speaker 1: be hit or miss, So I think for me this

312
00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:12,880
Speaker 1: is kind of a stay away.

313
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Speaker 3: But you like Army, Yeah, I do. Yeah, at least

314
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,880
Speaker 3: that's the way I lean. Ran. I have not bet

315
00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,360
Speaker 3: this game yet. I don't feel that I have to

316
00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:23,200
Speaker 3: because it's not over one of the key numbers for

317
00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,440
Speaker 3: someone that's interested in Army. With utsab and minus two

318
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,560
Speaker 3: and a half, you can wait to see if you

319
00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:31,440
Speaker 3: can get three or three and a half. But you're

320
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,880
Speaker 3: not risking anything by waiting. I mean that line could

321
00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 3: move five points the other way and there's not going

322
00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,200
Speaker 3: to be a tangible difference in for Army betters at least,

323
00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 3: So that's gonna be one where I'm waiting until game day.

324
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Speaker 3: But last week Army opened at Coastal Carolina. They lost

325
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Speaker 3: by ten. You know, again, going back to the perception thing,

326
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,320
Speaker 3: I think people when they watch UTSA take Houston down

327
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Speaker 3: to the wire, they look far more impressive than Army

328
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,200
Speaker 3: losing by ten to a Coastal Carolina team that wasn't

329
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Speaker 3: as impressive last year. But that was in part because

330
00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,080
Speaker 3: Grayce and McCall had missed that time with injuries. So yeah,

331
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Speaker 3: I do think that's a perception against reality line for sure.

332
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Speaker 1: I like it. I like it a couple of the

333
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 1: games here and then we'll go to the top five

334
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 1: of the week. Do you like layon or do you

335
00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,920
Speaker 1: like the under on Maryland at Charlotte sixty five and

336
00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,960
Speaker 1: a half? Because Charlotte did look so pathetic last week.

337
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 3: The one thing you could point to to support that

338
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 3: would be and I haven't seen the most updated I

339
00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 3: think Chris Reynolds is going to still be out Charlotte.

340
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,320
Speaker 3: They have been one of the worst FPS teams to

341
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 3: this point, in large part because their veterans certing quarterback

342
00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 3: Chris Reynolds got hurt in Week one. Yeah, their backups

343
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 3: are not very good. The Texas they had this Texas

344
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,760
Speaker 3: A and M transfer that had come in that they

345
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 3: had had as their top backup. I just don't think

346
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,840
Speaker 3: that kid has it. And so then they tried this

347
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 3: other kid. I think Xavier Williams is his name, something

348
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 3: like that, but he is very clearly not what Reynolds is.

349
00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 3: It's several steps down. And so Charlotte's offense, which was

350
00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,639
Speaker 3: constructed around this quick hitting passing game where you have

351
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,600
Speaker 3: three really good receivers. I mean, Charlotte has a really

352
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,960
Speaker 3: really good receiving corps and a deep one, but without Reynolds,

353
00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:14,120
Speaker 3: that stuff doesn't work as well. And what they were

354
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,640
Speaker 3: not as good at it was the running game. And

355
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,560
Speaker 3: so it's really hurt on both ends of it because

356
00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,199
Speaker 3: now this Williams guy can't hit the receivers like like

357
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 3: Reynolds does, and then you have to run the You

358
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 3: have to try to run the ball a little bit more,

359
00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 3: both with quarterback scrambles and with the kids that you

360
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 3: have back and the defense is ready for it. So

361
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 3: it has not gone well for Charlotte early on. Maryland's

362
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 3: offense is they have the awesome receiving corps as well.

363
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,159
Speaker 3: It's a really hard one to gauge just because of

364
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,320
Speaker 3: the issues that Charlotte has had with the personnel and

365
00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:46,879
Speaker 3: offense that came from the quarterback injury. Probably another run

366
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 3: that I'm not going to bet, but it is interesting

367
00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 3: to think about.

368
00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go over to the top five games

369
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 1: of the week. Last couple of game is kind of

370
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 1: hard to pick here, but the number one game I

371
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:01,080
Speaker 1: think on everyone's mind and is for me, and it

372
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 1: has been for a couple of years at this point,

373
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,640
Speaker 1: is number one Alabama on the road against.

374
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 2: My Texas Longhorns.

375
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 1: This one opened up at minus seventeen and has grown

376
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,720
Speaker 1: to minus twenty for Bama. It's also another one of

377
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:16,920
Speaker 1: the games I just didn't mention it in the section

378
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: before because I knew we're going to talk about it here.

379
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 1: Overwhelming majority of the money is on Bama in this game.

380
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 1: The over on this one is going to be a

381
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,600
Speaker 1: sixty four and a half you see it a little closer.

382
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 1: But I don't know, are you actually putting money on

383
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,720
Speaker 1: my long horns here, thor what do you think?

384
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,360
Speaker 3: I'll tell you this, Bodman, I have not yet. Certainly,

385
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,960
Speaker 3: if the market pushes that game to twenty one or

386
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 3: certainly twenty one and a half. If they're gonna tell

387
00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 3: me like that, I'm putting my hand in that cookie

388
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 3: jar on a long horn. No, it's I mean, right

389
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,720
Speaker 3: now at twenty, it's not enough for me quite yet,

390
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 3: even though I am showing huge line value on Texas.

391
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 3: My line right now on that game it's Alabama minus

392
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 3: twelve and a half, So I'm showing seven and a

393
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,159
Speaker 3: half points of line value theoretically on Texas. But I

394
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 3: also you know, we talked about this, like, I think

395
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 3: this Alabama team could be one of the best teams

396
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 3: of my lifetime, right and I've only seen this new

397
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 3: look Texas team against you all Monroe last week, where

398
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 3: they were palling the starters super duper early, and they

399
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 3: weren't giving that they weren't funneling the touches to guys

400
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 3: like Bijon specifically, that we're gonna see when they play

401
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 3: a team like Alabama, So we don't completely know what

402
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 3: to know from them yet, or quenen Ewers when he

403
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 3: plays a good defense. We just don't know. So right now,

404
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 3: with where the spread is certainly not laying those points

405
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 3: of Alabama, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna be laying

406
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 3: either way. I can't take the twenty with Texas yet,

407
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 3: But again, if the market wants my bet on Texas,

408
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,119
Speaker 3: all you got to do is push that line to

409
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,439
Speaker 3: twenty one or twenty one and a half certainly, and

410
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:51,880
Speaker 3: I'm going to bet on Texas.

411
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 1: The second game that we have up here this week,

412
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 1: our number nine, Baylor at number twenty one BYU BYU

413
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 1: is a three and a half point home favorite. Fifty

414
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 1: three and a half is the line here. This looks

415
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 1: more like a stay away at least on the spread,

416
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,159
Speaker 1: right I think so.

417
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 3: It's it's one of those where my numbers lean one

418
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 3: way and I personally lean a different way, which is

419
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 3: usually when I end up like staying away unless I'm

420
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:24,159
Speaker 3: super bolish on my opinion. But my number on that

421
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 3: game is BYU minus five is what my system's number is.

422
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,399
Speaker 3: So it seemed to give two points a line value

423
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 3: to BYU on the spread. But the team that I'm

424
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,159
Speaker 3: bullish on is Baylor. I'm super bullish on them. I

425
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 3: was bullish on them over the summer bet all they're

426
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,239
Speaker 3: overs and stuff like that. I thought they had a

427
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 3: criminally low win total that was put out was at

428
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 3: seven and a half or whatever. I think that this

429
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 3: team is an absolutely legitimate Big twelve contender, and you

430
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 3: know this can be an issue. You have a revenge

431
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 3: factor going for BYU. But on the other side of it,

432
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 3: they have major issues at receiver right now. Gunner Romney

433
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,719
Speaker 3: did not play in the first game. Did not hear

434
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 3: a lot of information about that. It was just like

435
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: one of those where, you know, the time leading up

436
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 3: to kick off, you heard he wasn't going to be playing.

437
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,159
Speaker 3: Then they so because of that, in part, they were

438
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,160
Speaker 3: given all this usage early on to Pooka nikoua right

439
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 3: and you know, throwing on the ball. But like also

440
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 3: they were getting them involved with the jet sweep game

441
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 3: and all this sort of stuff. His first two jet

442
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 3: sweeps against USF in the first quarter both went for touchdowns.

443
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 3: The first one he had this long touchdown run. Second

444
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 3: one is like seven eight nine yards like something like that.

445
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 3: They tried it a third time in the first quarter

446
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 3: and USF was ready for at that time. It was

447
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 3: like that old George Bush quote where it's like, you know,

448
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 3: fool me once, can't get pulled again or whatever exactly,

449
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 3: and USF just swarms in. Nikua Nkula gets injured, you know,

450
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 3: they bring him off. He's in the medical ten. He

451
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 3: was done for the day. If Nikua can't play and

452
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 3: Gunner Romney can't play, and you're going up against this

453
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:57,360
Speaker 3: nasty Baylor defense. David Randa always has nasty defenses. They

454
00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 3: did lose you know, Petrie and Terrell Bernard over the season.

455
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 3: But like, for instance, you have a first round guy

456
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 3: playing noseguard, you know that, like an LSU transfer that

457
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 3: to come over, who's just an absolute war daddy. Then

458
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 3: you know a bunch of guys back, you know, beyond

459
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 3: that whatnot. But if you don't have the receiving play

460
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 3: at BYU, it's all gonna come down to Christopher Brooks

461
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 3: the running back, and then Jared Hall just sort of

462
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 3: scrambling around unless they can find a receiver or whatever,

463
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 3: or you're forcing targets at Isaac t Rex. You know,

464
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 3: I mean, one way or the other, I do lean

465
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: Baylor on this game. And I do think that you

466
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 3: can toggle my number back a little bit if if

467
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 3: if those if the BYU receivers do end up missing

468
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 3: that game, I think you could you could sort of

469
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 3: manually adjust this thing back to b YU minus three

470
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 3: might explain some of the discrepancy. I'm absolutely not betting

471
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 3: on BYU because of how much I believe in Baylor.

472
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 3: I will think about betting Baylor for this one, though

473
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 3: for me, it's probably would not be a spread bet.

474
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 3: This is probably gonna be some on my wait until

475
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 3: Saturday morning, and if I'm still feeling the conviction I

476
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 3: do on Baylor, I'll just do the money line. I

477
00:22:58,160 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 3: don't think the points are going to matter in this

478
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 3: on why not take the plus you know, one thirty

479
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 3: or plus one forty or whatever it is on Baylor

480
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 3: at that a little.

481
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: More juice by taking that money line. If it's going

482
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 1: to be close anyway, you know, go ahead and take it.

483
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 1: I'm absolutely with you on that. On that play number

484
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 1: twenty Kentucky on the road in the Swamp against now

485
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: number twelve Florida. Florida is a four and a half

486
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 1: point favorite. Fifty two and a half is the over

487
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: on this game. You like Florida, but you know you

488
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 1: you see this game as more of a coin flip,

489
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: right or I do?

490
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,679
Speaker 3: Yeah? I you know, the my numbers do favor Florida,

491
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 3: but it's only by eight tenths of a point. You know,

492
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 3: Florida minus point eight points, So I do see the

493
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 3: line value being on the Kentucky side. I think you

494
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 3: can explain that discrepancy just by the end of what

495
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 3: happened in the Florida Utah game. I think if Florida

496
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 3: loses that game, I think that this line opens, it's

497
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 3: something like Florida minus two and a half or minus three.

498
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 3: But because Richardson put on his his you know, Superman

499
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: Kate at the very end of that game, and then

500
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 3: like we were talking about, maybe the refs miss a

501
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: holding call on that interception or pass in appearance whatever.

502
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 3: Because of those the confluence of those couple of things,

503
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,239
Speaker 3: Florida gets these couple extra points a line value, and

504
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: you understand the respect. I mean Utah or was a

505
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 3: team that was being hyped and then Florida comes in.

506
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 1: Number seven, came in at number seven, top ten team

507
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:22,959
Speaker 1: in the nation, and they lose on the road. That's

508
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: a tough game on the road. I did pick Utah

509
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 1: in my article. I wrote them up, and I was

510
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 1: seven and three this week, and that's one of the

511
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: three that I missed. Unfortunately, I got the hook on

512
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and I missed the under on the Nevada game

513
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 1: by a point and a half. So all my games

514
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 1: like by a hair from having a really really solid

515
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 1: week seven three is still good, but that was one

516
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 1: that bothered me. But yeah, I mean Richardson looks like

517
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: a Heisman contender right now, Like you said before, though,

518
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 1: we're never going to see that spin around throw to

519
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 1: the end throw the end zone.

520
00:24:58,200 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 3: Was that a.

521
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: Conversion play that he had? Yeah, But I mean Kentucky

522
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 1: is another strong team. I see this as much closer

523
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: of a coin flip like you do.

524
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 3: I do too. Yeah, and Kentucky didn't get the same

525
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 3: I think this is a worth noting. They didn't get

526
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 3: the same stage to impress in the way that Florida

527
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: that they played sort of a middle tier packed our

528
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 3: MAC team maybe a little bit about middle tier, but

529
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 3: Miami of Ohio people weren't watching that game, but everybody,

530
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 3: everyone and their mother was watching Florida against Utah and

531
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 3: saw what Richardson did at the end and everything like that,

532
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 3: pulling out that game. So that's why you're seeing the

533
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 3: little bit of a difference between what I feel his

534
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 3: objective reality and then perception on that game. I do

535
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 3: think that has opened the window here of value for

536
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 3: Kentucky betters.

537
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: How about you know the last two were kind of

538
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 1: hard to pick. I threw this one in here because

539
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 1: it's got number twelve Oklahoma State at home and a

540
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 1: half ten and a half point favorite, excuse me over

541
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: Arizona State. Fifty seven and a half is the over

542
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 1: under in this game. But you see it amount of

543
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 1: value on the Arizona State side.

544
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna get to find out personally if well,

545
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 3: let me put it this way. Over over the summer,

546
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: Arizona State was one of those teams that I was

547
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 3: like bullish on against what their win total was. So

548
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 3: I knew that I was significantly higher on Arizona State

549
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 3: than the MARKT was Arizona State. Of course, they had

550
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 3: lost a whole bunch of guys in the transfer portal,

551
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: and initially, just like everybody else, I just expected, you know,

552
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 3: whether Herma was going to get fired or HERM wouldn't

553
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 3: be able to replace all the guys that were leaving,

554
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 3: different stuff like that. But Herm ends up hanging on,

555
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 3: and then he got guys that I felt like were

556
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,120
Speaker 3: pretty solid signings in the transfer portal, like Emery Jones.

557
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 3: That's a pretty solid.

558
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: One over Jane Daniels, be honest. I was Actually Daniels

559
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: did not look good golf against Florida State.

560
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 3: If I was Kha, but you know, you know they

561
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 3: fired Lane Lane kiffing on the tarmac. If I was Boute,

562
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 3: I would have transferred on the tarmac after that game.

563
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 2: Now he unfollowed everything.

564
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 1: I guess he didn't put in for a transfer yet,

565
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: but he was very mad, so as he should have been.

566
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 2: Daniels talked too much.

567
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: That was ridiculous.

568
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 3: He sure did. Yeah, And with Daniels, it's like he

569
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 3: has to see the guy open and then his mind

570
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 3: has to be like Jayden, he's open, throw the ball

571
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 3: and then beat and then finally he starts throwing it.

572
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,199
Speaker 3: By that point the defenders there. So it's like he

573
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 3: also has accuracy issues beyond that. But it's like this

574
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 3: thing that's exacerbating and I bote. I think it's justifiably.

575
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 3: I mean, a part of that was on you know,

576
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 3: like I was making fun of Daniels and Brian Kelly

577
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 3: on Twitter arms on Sunday night or whatever, but like

578
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,439
Speaker 3: you know, some LSU fans were coming back of like

579
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 3: you know, this is on Bhuta too. He's not putting

580
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 3: out good effort, he has bad body language.

581
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: Well, you gotta find a different way to get him

582
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 1: the ball. Run some reversus short routes, put him in

583
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 1: the backfield, whatever. Just yeah, yeah, I mean, just generate touches.

584
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 1: It's not hard for your best player. They do in

585
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: the NFL. That's why Deebo was running the ball. They

586
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: you know, Jimmy g is not a good quarterback, so

587
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: they manufacture touches for the best players. It's what you

588
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: have to do.

589
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 3: The other thing is, it's like, guys, you really can't

590
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 3: understand why Boota is frustrated. Really, he turned down millions

591
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 3: and millions, He turned down generational wealth from the NFL.

592
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 3: First off, right, second off. Alabama was coming at him

593
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 3: right when Alabama figured out that he wasn't going to

594
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 3: the NFL. Alabama wanted him bad, and all the rumors were,

595
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,640
Speaker 3: you know, in reports coming out was Boote was going

596
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: to go to Alabama. All of a sudden, it just

597
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 3: switched in one day and it's like, no, now he's

598
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 3: going back. And then you saw Alabama turn around. They're like, oh,

599
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 3: we can't pluck the wide receiver one off Lsu. Well,

600
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: we'll just pluck the wide receiver one off of Georgia

601
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 3: and said, and so the sign and signing Burton. But

602
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 3: like like bootsa, he must have been sold something in

603
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 3: order to come back. If you're gonna leave that on

604
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 3: the table, you're gonna leave twenty million dollars, twenty five

605
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 3: million dollars on the table, not going to the NFL,

606
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 3: and you're gonna leave being on one of what could

607
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 3: be one of the best offensive we see.

608
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 1: Well, after you watch how he coached, you got to

609
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: know Brian Kelly's got a silver tongue. So Brian's not

610
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: a silver playbook, but a silver tongue, that's for sure.

611
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, whatever the opposite of a silver tongue is, I

612
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 3: think Brian Kelly has. I don't know how Brian Kelly

613
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 3: convinced Bote to come there, but I wouldn't put it

614
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 3: beyond Brian Kelly to be selling him things that were

615
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 3: not true. And you could you could understand maybe why

616
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 3: Boots would be a little bit frustrated in week one.

617
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's let's get back because we we completely

618
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: got off the rails there Arizona State at Oklahoma State.

619
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 1: You see value on the a SU side, you know,

620
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: We've talked about Emory Jones, this Elson rabbit hole. So

621
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: why why is it that you like a su uh

622
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: in this matchup? It's a road matchup. There's been a

623
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: lot of turmoil around a SU. I think that why

624
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: a big part of public perception and why this number

625
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 1: is so big and you like a su in this game.

626
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 3: Before we move on, I do have to do my family. Okay, sorry,

627
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 3: So for for Arizona, say, you know, like like I

628
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 3: was said, now, I'm higher on them than the market is,

629
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 3: and I'm certainly lower on Oklahoma State than the market is.

630
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 3: I don't think the market took quite enough into account

631
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 3: that Oklahoma State last year, last couple of years, but

632
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 3: specifically last year was a team that was led not

633
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: by the foot of their offense, which is what you typically,

634
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 3: you know, going historically you associated with Mike Gunny teams.

635
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 3: Last year, it was the defense. The defense was friggin' awesome.

636
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 3: You had Malcolm Rodriguez and all those different guys, and

637
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 3: they finished as a top ten defense. Jim Knowles, of course,

638
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 3: the architect of that defense. He walked to Ohio State

639
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 3: and Oklahoma State lost something like seven defenders off of

640
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 3: that defense. So I knew that what their best thing

641
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 3: was it had been cratered out this offseason. What they

642
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,719
Speaker 3: returned it was the offensive guys. But I've never been

643
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 3: a Spencer Sanders guy that well, he was playing Central

644
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 3: Michigan too. I mean, you know, definitely chips up, but like, yeah,

645
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 3: we're gonna have to see it against a legitimate defense.

646
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 3: So I mean you have that going on on that

647
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 3: side where you know, like, I do not think that

648
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State is going to be better than they were

649
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 3: last year. I think objectively they have taken this step back, sure,

650
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 3: Whereas I think the market expected or what they think

651
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 3: is that Arizona State dropped several several notches, whereas I

652
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 3: only think they dropped maybe like one notch or one

653
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: and a half notches like something like that.

654
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 2: You know what I mean, it is very understandable.

655
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, let me ask you this, Spencer Sanders or Spencer Rattler,

656
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 1: Which Spencer is the better?

657
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: Spencer?

658
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 3: Oh, Spencer Ratler for sure.

659
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: Really, I mean, I'm a Texas fan, so I can't

660
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: like Spencer Ratler. But you know, anyway, the last of

661
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: the top five games to your number four Tennessee a

662
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 1: six and a half point road favorite against number seventeen.

663
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 1: Pitt the over sixty six, a lot of scoring here.

664
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: You actually kind of like Pitt in this game? Correct,

665
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 1: So Pitt was very unimpressive last week. I'm very mad

666
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: at them right now. I'll at a decent chunk of

667
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: change because of that hook. I was texting back and

668
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 1: forth with you. You knew I was mad. Now, look,

669
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 1: you know, you move forward another week, but the opponent

670
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 1: gets tougher here. I think Tennessee is a good team.

671
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: So I am legit surprised that you're on the pit

672
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 1: side after watching him last week.

673
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: You know, the defense is supposed to be good.

674
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 1: Maybe they're gonna get better after a sloppy Week one

675
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: and really bow up against Tennessee. So I think because

676
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: you like Pitt, I'm gonna avoid this game out of

677
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: respect for you thor, but I like Tennessee here, I

678
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: have to say it. I'm I think I think the

679
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: volunteers walk away with this one.

680
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 2: So why do we like Pitt?

681
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm definitely on Pitt. You know the last week,

682
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 3: you know, we talked about this on the show that

683
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 3: we just did for Discord, But Pitt was rolling on

684
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 3: offense when Rodney Hammon was rolling on offense, and you

685
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 3: know he was he sort of jumped out where we

686
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 3: thought Israel Lebana Konda was going to be the lead

687
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 3: of that committee. Israel Vanakonda was not good in that game,

688
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 3: like he was just getting stoned at the line. He

689
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 3: looked a little bit sluggish. Hammond was good at both

690
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 3: as a runner and as a receiver. He gets knocked

691
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 3: out of that game by an illegal targeting shot to

692
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 3: his helmet and he ended up hurting his leg or

693
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 3: his knee or whatever. And then when he went out

694
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 3: the offense, their offense wasn't doing quite as good. They

695
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 3: still be pit by by seven points, but Hammon had

696
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 3: fifty five yards receiving, seventy four rushing, and then a

697
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 3: couple of touchdowns as well. You know, we talked about

698
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 3: Pitt a lot last week, you know about how the

699
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: offense was going to be down a little bit and

700
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 3: the passing offense was going to be down bit. Rushing

701
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 3: offense is going to come up a little bit, but

702
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 3: their offense was going to be down overall a little bit,

703
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 3: and then the defense probably was going to get better.

704
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 3: That was the part of it that we didn't see

705
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 3: as much like Daniel or you know, the West Virginia

706
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 3: offense played a little bit better, but what it was,

707
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,719
Speaker 3: you had these explosive plays that West Virginia was getting,

708
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 3: and I don't know if that was just because of

709
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 3: the heat that the Pitt was was doing up front.

710
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 3: Pitt was a team that finished number two in the

711
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 3: nation last year in sacks per game. But like that Donaldson,

712
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: I don't even know where this kid Donaldson came from,

713
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 3: like that West Virginia had. He's a kid who in

714
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 3: college fantasy football, he has dual eligibility of both running

715
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 3: back and tight end. But anyhow, he was getting all

716
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 3: these explosive long runs and stuff. Pitt just has to

717
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: stop giving up those explosive plays and they should be fine.

718
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 3: Tennessee looked pretty good against ball State in Week one,

719
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 3: but we didn't get any more information about them. But

720
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 3: I just think that the market seems to be way

721
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 3: too high on Tennessee and just like I was saying

722
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 3: last week, they seem to be a bit lower on Pitt,

723
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 3: and they haven't risen any on that. Even though Pitt

724
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 3: did end up beating West Virginia by seven points, I

725
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 3: think just because they didn't they didn't cover, but my

726
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 3: justid line in this game, it's closer to pick them.

727
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's definitely. I think I'll void, like I said,

728
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,879
Speaker 1: because you like pitt I do think in my heart

729
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 1: of hearts, the Tennessee comes away with the dub here.

730
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 1: So we'll come back next week. I'll let y' all

731
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 1: know how that game went. Of course, you can think

732
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 1: about us while you're watching that one. Let's go to

733
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 1: your pick store because looking at your sheet, there are

734
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 1: a couple of games where you know you like one

735
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 1: team more than the other based on the spread. You're

736
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 1: just the ones that I have written down on the

737
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 1: sheet right here, Ohio. At Penn State, Penn State is

738
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 1: a twenty four and a half point favorite. You like

739
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 1: Penn State by a couple more points than that. Is

740
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 1: that one you're sticking to?

741
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a you know, we talk about like these

742
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 3: big favorites, and I usually do not lay the points

743
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 3: when it gets up over at twenty five or so.

744
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 3: This is one where I'm for sure considering it. My

745
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,280
Speaker 3: adjusted line in that game is Penn State minus thirty

746
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 3: one point two. The live line is Penn State minus

747
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 3: twenty four and a half. So I'm showing almost a

748
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 3: touchdown of value on the favorite, on the big favorite,

749
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 3: which my system usually doesn't do. So that's what's pointing

750
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 3: me at at Penn State. I think a part of

751
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 3: the reason that Ohio is getting the respect that they

752
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 3: are in the market right now is last week they

753
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 3: go out and they beat FAU, a team that the

754
00:35:56,040 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 3: previous week had slapped around, an FBS team that the

755
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 3: team that FAU had slapped around was Charlotte, who we

756
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 3: talked about previously after Charlotte's starting quarterback got hurt, and

757
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,439
Speaker 3: then last week Ohio sneaks by him by a field goal.

758
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 3: But I feel like the law of not reciprossey love,

759
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 3: like you know, you go from A to B t C.

760
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 3: I feel like Ohio because of that, is getting too

761
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,439
Speaker 3: much respect and doesn't seem like the market loves Penn

762
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 3: State right now. But this profiles as a game where

763
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 3: they should be able to run over the Bobcats.

764
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: What about we've got Maryland minus twenty seven at Charlotte.

765
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 1: You see some value on the Charlotte side a little bit.

766
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 3: It looks like, yeah, my Justine, so this game is

767
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 3: in Charlotte. So it's this wonkey game where Maryland has

768
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 3: to travel to the G five team, like you mentioned,

769
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 3: twenty seven points. My line in this game is Maryland

770
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 3: minus twenty two point two. But I will say, going

771
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 3: back to that Chris Reynolds injury that I just alluded to,

772
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 3: Chris Reynolds gets hurt early on in that game against

773
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 3: Fae in week zero. The offense stunk after he went out.

774
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 3: That's part of the reason why fau boat rased him,

775
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,320
Speaker 3: and then last week he was out again. Of course

776
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 3: you missed that game, and Charlotte loses at home to

777
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 3: William and Mary by double did It's not a good

778
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: luck losing at home though, to William and Married by

779
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 3: double diad is. You know, if Reynolds misses this game

780
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 3: as well, I think that might wipe out some of

781
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 3: that value that that I'm showing on this line. But

782
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 3: if they got good, good information about him, you know,

783
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 3: if you happen to be active, that would change it.

784
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 3: So I probably won't bet on Charlotte unless unless I

785
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 3: hear something good about Reynolds. Otherwise I'm probably going to

786
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 3: stay away.

787
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 1: UVA on the road at Illinois. Illinois is a four

788
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 1: point favorite, but thor you like the Cavaliers in this

789
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 1: game a little bit.

790
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:46,479
Speaker 2: Now.

791
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: Look, I love, you know, rooting for our Kirkland Wisconsin

792
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 1: in Illinois here. I still love that line, such a

793
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:58,280
Speaker 1: good line. But and I look, they beat the spread

794
00:37:58,320 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: and hit the under. I had both those in my

795
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 1: last week, so I was very happy with them. But

796
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 1: you know, I'm probably a stay away in this game

797
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 1: because I do think this is way more evenly matched.

798
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: I like Brendan Armstrong for UVA. How do you see

799
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: this one playing on? Is this a UVA dub here?

800
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think so. Yeah. The books have been putting

801
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 3: out a lot of weird lines on Illinois. It seems

802
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 3: like they vascillate back back and forth whatever. And because

803
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,399
Speaker 3: their lines have I mean, this is the third straight

804
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 3: week where their line has been like the game that

805
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 3: they're involved with have been significantly off.

806
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 1: For mine.

807
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,359
Speaker 3: Last week it was we like them against Indiana because

808
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,919
Speaker 3: the books had opened it up at like Indiana minus four,

809
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 3: and by kickoff it had come down to three. But like,

810
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 3: I didn't really understand why, you know, you were favor

811
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 3: in Indiana by that much base on what you'd see now.

812
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 3: Indiana ended up pulling that out at the very end.

813
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 3: They shouldn't have, though Illinois played them up until that point,

814
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 3: and then and then you know, Illinois just got beelimu

815
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 3: or whatever. But but then it's weird because you come

816
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 3: off of that game, well, going back the previous week,

817
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 3: you blow out Wyoming in week zero, you looked really good.

818
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 3: But then the books seem not to be respecting like

819
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 3: they should when you're going up against Indiana. But then

820
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 3: you know, now you come back off that where you

821
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 3: lose Indiana. Maybe you sure won, but you lost, and

822
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 3: the next week the books are now all of a

823
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 3: sudden giving you respect that I don't think is warranted

824
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 3: against Virginia. So I don't know what the books in

825
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 3: the market are doing with It's sort of discombobulated me.

826
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,479
Speaker 3: I'm getting dizzy trying to figure out what they're both doing.

827
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,800
Speaker 3: But what grounds me back to earth is my line.

828
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 3: My line in this game has moved to Virginia minus

829
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 3: three point one. So when you're looking at the books,

830
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 3: have it at Illinois minus four and a half. I

831
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 3: have the other team favored by a field goal er.

832
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 3: So I'm sure when seven point six of seven point

833
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,919
Speaker 3: six points of line value on Virginia, Virginia is gonna

834
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 3: have a difficult time dealing with the downhill running that

835
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,320
Speaker 3: Illinois does. Talked about how big their offensive line is,

836
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 3: they should be able to run. However, Illinois is going

837
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 3: to have just as much problems, probably more, defending Virginia's

838
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 3: passing attack. Virginia has four different receivers that I believe

839
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,720
Speaker 3: will play in the NFL. Brendan Armstrong also is probably

840
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 3: gonna play in the NFL. If he doesn't, he's going

841
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 3: to be a USFL All Star. Is kind of what

842
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 3: his game is, you know. He's like this dual fair

843
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 3: lefty that that could throw a little bit but certainly

844
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 3: accuracy at least out to the intermediate sector. He can

845
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: push it downfield too, but with all those bodies across

846
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 3: the field, I think that's going to be a real

847
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 3: issue for Illinois secondary and specifically in terms of defending it.

848
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 3: I like Virginia to win this game.

849
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 1: And just so everybody knows, that money line would be

850
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 1: plus one sixty five on UVA. So I'll take you

851
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: nice juice there.

852
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 3: Pay I'm going to partlay that with the Pittsburgh one

853
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:45,959
Speaker 3: hobo plus seven hundred something like that.

854
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 1: These last three are ugly gamestre so I'll just group

855
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 1: them all together. Games Michigan minus fifty one, you see

856
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 1: a little value on the Hawaii side because fifty one

857
00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: is absurd. Iowa somehow is a three and a half

858
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 1: point favorite at home, but you like them even more

859
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: than that, even though they had a pathetic showing last week.

860
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 1: And Colorado State is uh a road that they're minus

861
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: seven and a half against Middle Tennessee. You like Middle

862
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 1: Tennessee in that game. So any of those three games

863
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 1: stick out to you, those ugly, nasty games there that

864
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: no one wants to watch.

865
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, the the market may end up putting a gun

866
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 3: in my head to bet on Hawaii again.

867
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:35,240
Speaker 2: I don't know that I've seen a line.

868
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 1: I know, I know that there's been a line this

869
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:41,439
Speaker 1: big Alabama versus somebody, but I don't remember the last

870
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 1: time we had.

871
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, you don't see lines this big very often. And

872
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 3: Michigan it's they don't have like to spread it out,

873
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 3: chuck it downfield, aggressive type offense. But Hawaii is so

874
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,239
Speaker 3: friggin bad, you know, I think I mentioned before, but

875
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 3: they're bottom three in the FBS and my power rankings

876
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 3: right now, so it'll be hard for me to get there.

877
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 3: But if the market keeps pushing that lineup, you know,

878
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 3: it's whatever it was fifty two right now or whatever

879
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:09,799
Speaker 3: it is. If that thing ends up getting into the

880
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 3: mid fifties, the market, they're going to force my hand.

881
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 3: I'm going to have to I'm certainly not going to

882
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 3: lay that amount of points with Michigan, but I know

883
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 3: how bad Hawaii is, so it's going to be tough.

884
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 3: But again, with that many, with that big of a

885
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 3: head start, I might just have to do it and

886
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 3: play like the Tortoise and the hair kind of a thing. Iowa.

887
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 3: Of the three games that you toss up, the Iowa

888
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 3: one is the one that I like. I think that

889
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 3: line is too low. And I understand why people don't

890
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,280
Speaker 3: want to bet on the Hawkeys because their offense.

891
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 2: Looked objectively the field goal yeah.

892
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 3: Objectively awful. They became the first team since before two thousand.

893
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 3: We actually I still have not seen someone dig up

894
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 3: the last time that this occurred in college football, but

895
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 3: a couple of different people looked at least through the

896
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 3: year two thousand and since then, there had not been

897
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 3: another team that had scored exactly seven points in the

898
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 3: FBS without an offensive touchdown like no.

899
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: Highlights you know why thor no camera phones back then,

900
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 1: so no highlights of those games cult event if nobody

901
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 1: was you know, there's no Big ten network and nobody

902
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 1: was recording.

903
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,320
Speaker 2: Them, you know, may not have an archive.

904
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: I'm just someone was recording it, but probably probably fairly

905
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 1: grainy film there, so we'll see.

906
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, But like I think what's lost a little bit

907
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 3: is IOWA was So this could be the worst offense

908
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 3: of the Farns era. I'm not going to argue with that,

909
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 3: but this might be the best combination of defense and

910
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 3: special teams of the Farans era as well. Their defense

911
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 3: might be top three in the nation, just absolutely nasty,

912
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 3: and their special teams is awesome too. Specifically the punter

913
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 3: who is an absolute piece, this kid named Tory Taylor

914
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 3: from Australia. He will be punching in the NFL. He's

915
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 3: got a monster leg and he is really good at

916
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 3: the coffin corner and stuff. So like, yes, Iowa's offense

917
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 3: is bad, but they play even more conservative because of

918
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 3: how much they trust that the defense and the special teams.

919
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 3: And you say, you know, well, four, I mean, you

920
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 3: have a team that can't play in the offense. You

921
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 3: know that, sure that their defense is good, but like,

922
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 3: how could you lay three and a half points against

923
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 3: Iowa State, you know, in this this rivalry game and

924
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 3: a big twelve opponent whatever like Iowa without an offense, Like,

925
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 3: how could they cover that? Just look at last year.

926
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 3: Last year, Iowa blew out Iowa State with like one

927
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:27,839
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty yards of total offense. They turned over

928
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 3: Brock Purty I think three or four times.

929
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:31,320
Speaker 2: They had He's in the NFL.

930
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 3: Now he's in the NFL, and so is Breecee. Also

931
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 3: is Charlie Cohlar so is.

932
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:38,280
Speaker 2: Some of their offense pieces.

933
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the other point of it. Iowa lost everybody.

934
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 3: They lost everybody. They lost all their studs on offense,

935
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 3: and I believe they lost eight starters on defense. They

936
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,360
Speaker 3: returned only three. People are making fun of Iowa, But

937
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 3: Iowa played a top line FCS team, So I to

938
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 3: go to state. It's one of the best, you know,

939
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 3: FCS teams, whereas Iowa. Who did Iowa State play right?

940
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 3: Like and so just because of the the circumstances up

941
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 3: where Iowa, Iowa's offense became a punchline on Saturday. But

942
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 3: people weren't paying attention to Iowa State. I feel like

943
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 3: that's why this thing is a little bit closer. But

944
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 3: if you just start parsing it, you know, unit against unit,

945
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 3: Iowa State has almost nothing that you would look at

946
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 3: and you'd be like, I trust that their offense has

947
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 3: gone to a bunch of like these young guys that

948
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 3: we haven't seen before. They like a couple of them,

949
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:27,720
Speaker 3: like drell Brock had had a good game. In their opener,

950
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 3: Deckers looked.

951
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 1: Out to East Missouri State missouris, so you know, there

952
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 1: you go.

953
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 3: But this will be the first time that those two kids,

954
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 3: you know, have the bullets flying around them and gets

955
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 3: a really really good defense like this, So that that's

956
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,279
Speaker 3: gonna be tough. Plus you're playing in Kinnick in this

957
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 3: enormous rivalry game, don't they're gonna be I always say

958
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 3: it's gonna be getting a lot of hate. You know,

959
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 3: there's gonna be a lot of negative energy going towards

960
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 3: down there. And so you have all those different things

961
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 3: going on, And I also don't trust Iowa State's defense.

962
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 3: Now again, sure Iowa's offensive, I get it, but I

963
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 3: was starting running back was out in the last game.

964
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,839
Speaker 3: May have been withheld for precautionary reasons. If he's back

965
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 3: in this game, he's probably their second best offensive player

966
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 3: behind Sam Laparda. You know, I'm like, you know, outside

967
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 3: the offensive line. Whatever, you get him back, maybe then

968
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 3: you can at least play the clock control kind of

969
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 3: a thing which will allow him to do the field

970
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,720
Speaker 3: position thing better. My line in this game is Iowa

971
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 3: minus six and a half, which I think is fair

972
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 3: from a talent on talent perspective, and I do think

973
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 3: that I was going to cover that number.

974
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 1: All right, Well, look that will wrap it up for

975
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 1: us this week. We appreciate Thor bringing the knowledge here.

976
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: Of course, you can follow him on the Twitter at

977
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: thor ku Thor Once again. You know we talked about

978
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 1: last week, but for people who are just jumping in

979
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 1: or watching us for the first time, kind of lay

980
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 1: out your CFB schedule throughout the week so they know

981
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 1: where they can find all your awesome content.

982
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 3: Yeah. So, first in the week on Betting Pros, we

983
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 3: put out my power rankings. You know where it's like

984
00:46:57,160 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 3: one through one through one and thirty one and all

985
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 3: their different things, and you can use that to make

986
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 3: your own adjusted spreads at home by subtracting one from

987
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:07,919
Speaker 3: the other, and then whatever you give the home field

988
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 3: advantage to the home team, you know, three points or

989
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 3: whatever it ends up being. Then the next day we

990
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 3: put out the week one or the you know, the

991
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 3: coming Week's Notes, where it's my adjusted lines on every

992
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 3: single game for the coming weekend, and then all the

993
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 3: injuries that are affecting spreads, different stuff like that in

994
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 3: the news that's affecting spreads, and then games that I'm

995
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 3: betting on early And I think that that's really important

996
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 3: because by the time it gets a Thursday Friday, these

997
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 3: lines have been so sharpened on both sides by the

998
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 3: market that most of the lines are good. You don't

999
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 3: see you see a bunch of mistake lines on Sunday,

1000
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 3: or you know, at least a small handful of them

1001
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 3: where they put it out and you're like, that line

1002
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 3: is going to change real quick. You don't see those

1003
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 3: anymore on Thursday. That's when you have to have a

1004
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 3: conviction on one side or the other, so so that

1005
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 3: you know, we do that early. And that's also what

1006
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 3: we talk about on my show on Sundays with Thomas,

1007
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 3: where it's like, these are the games that you need

1008
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 3: to bet early. Connecticut was an example this week where

1009
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 3: they open it twenty and a half. Immediately the next

1010
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 3: day it was Syracuse against you, where then the next

1011
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 3: day Syracuse was minus twenty two and a half, so,

1012
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 3: you know, different stuff like that. And then on Thursdays

1013
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 3: when I do my best bets of the week, those ones,

1014
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 3: I'm betting against the late week numbers. But that's when

1015
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 3: most of the market ends up doing. You know, you

1016
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 3: mentioned like late week is when most of the bets

1017
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 3: come in. That's when most people are doing it. So

1018
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 3: then I'm going to be betting against the late week numbers.

1019
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 3: That one comes out on Thursday. Of course, I have

1020
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 3: a couple of shows with you you know that we

1021
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 3: do on Wednesdays, have the show with Thomas on Sundays

1022
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 3: and then with Mike Ferrell, we do a Saturday kickoff

1023
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 3: show that's from ten am Eastern. I'm trying to do

1024
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 3: the Eastern in my head because I'm in several times I'll.

1025
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:44,720
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, same, yeah, ten.

1026
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 3: Am Eastern to eleven thirty Eastern in the morning. So

1027
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 3: it's like we end thirty minutes before kickoff in the

1028
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 3: mornings on Saturday, but we go for an hour and

1029
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 3: a half and we hit as many games on the

1030
00:48:55,440 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 3: card as we possibly can, given out side picks, total picks, props, dfs,

1031
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 3: all my adjusted lines, the whole gamut.

1032
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: Awesome, great stuff from Thor. You can follow me apt

1033
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:09,160
Speaker 1: Bogman Sports. I of course do this show with Thor

1034
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: that comes out every Thursday. We do stages at five

1035
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:16,360
Speaker 1: pm Eastern for Discord where you can come in and

1036
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 1: ask us questions on the betting Pros Discord.

1037
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 2: We would love to take your questions.

1038
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 1: I'm also going to be doing one on Friday at

1039
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 1: five pm Eastern by myself to talk about CFB and

1040
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 1: NFL lines if anybody would like to join me in

1041
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 1: those and also I'm on CFP Winning Edge doing that

1042
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 1: show with my buddies Nick Allen and Zabier Trish. So

1043
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Boglin Sports to see all

1044
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 1: my stuff and that is going to be it. We

1045
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 1: will see you guys next week. Good luck and we

1046
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 1: will see you then