WEBVTT - Ep. 125: Live from Tempe 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:12.720 This is a me eater podcast coming at you shirtless, 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:16.079 severely bug bitten in my case, underwear listening the hood 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:25.079 Don't Make Me Eat podcast. You can't predict anything, alright, guys, 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:30.760 thanks for coming out, man um whenever I'm doing so now. 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.880 I was trying to think of like clever uh stuff 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:36.559 to say in the beginning, But all I can think 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:39.120 about is the thing that's probably the dorkyest thing to 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:40.800 talk about, because you guys live here and you're used 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:45.560 to people like I'm from the northern tier. Man. I'm sorry, 0:00:45.720 --> 0:00:49.560 I can't like, I can't not discuss I can'tnot bring 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:56.240 up the heat. The only thing I've ever it's it's 0:00:56.280 --> 0:00:58.680 like the only that every I've been going to hot 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:03.120 yoga with my wife and it's like walking on the street. 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:05.640 I keep expecting to turn around and see the mrs 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:07.800 bent over backward on a rubber matt. It really like 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:13.200 it's like the heat the heat is is synthetic. It's 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:16.640 the weirdest kind of thing. Uh. But you know some 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:19.040 other stuff about Arizona, man, I think about like I 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:23.000 I stay apprized of of wildlife, e hunting and fishing 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:27.000 news stuff, and you guys keep coming up on my 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:32.560 radar where in February. Also, on one day, I'm getting 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:34.520 blown up by people like, dude, They're gonna have a 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:39.520 wild horse hunt in Arizona, and I'm thinking that's not 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:42.760 gonna go well. And then and then the next day 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:44.959 it's like, oh, they canceled the wild horse hunt. You know. 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:49.280 In the other day, I was like, really sadden to 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:51.720 hear about the you know, you guys got maybe two 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:54.480 jaguars and one of them turned up dead in Mexico, 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:58.000 which was a major bummer. And I got thinking, like, 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:01.240 you got forty was in wild horses and no one 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:03.520 can touch him. You've got two jaguars and ones dad, 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:09.960 and you guys got it all wrong. Um. So I 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:11.840 do have some good things to talk about down here. 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:15.200 Like I came down here my first ever successful coups 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:22.360 deer hunt was in Arizona, very much, very much. I 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:25.400 have to thank for that, you guys very own outdoorsmans 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:30.040 the store if you ever go down there. Those boys 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:31.960 lined me out on it. And I came down here 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:38.320 for my first two very unsuccessful mountain lion hunts. Um. 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:40.400 And so I'll always remember you guys for that. And 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:43.640 I thought of you guys earlier. Yes, I guess I 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:45.560 got the email yesterday but didn't read it till today, 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:46.920 and I thought you because I was reading about this 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:50.440 new thing that just came out about Neanderthals. Now that 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:52.280 I think of you guys in deaner Thals, but check 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:56.080 me out. They just recently in Germany found this fallow 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.280 deer carcass from a hund twenty thousand years ago that 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:04.079 had very peculiar injuries on the deer, and they realized 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:10.079 that a Neanderthal had killed it with a low velocity spear, 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:14.720 which implies that the Neanderthal and they recreated on other animals, 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:17.280 they're able to recreate the injuries, and it was from 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:21.119 a sharpened wooden spear, and it was a low velocity impact, 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:24.400 meaning that it wasn't like he hucked it, he jabbed it. 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:27.440 And the angle and they feel that he jabbed with 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:30.519 an underhand motion. So everybody has his idea in the 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:32.799 Nderthal is like knuckle draggers, right, they don't know what's 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:34.880 going on, but this opens up the idea that they 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:38.400 were doing some kind of coordinated hunting activities, like they're 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:41.440 working together and using concealment and getting up very close 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:42.960 to a foul deer to where a guy could just 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:46.760 go pop and kill it and um so, which means 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:50.040 they are working as a team. And I'm telling you 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:53.360 what in Arizona, Like, I think it's because the way 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:55.560 they do tag draws here. When a guy draws a 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:58.320 tag in Arizona, he goes with twelve guys and half 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:02.040 the firebarner were There's like when I'm looking at a 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:04.360 hunt magazine and I see like some dude with some 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:07.240 giant mule doing there's like fifty guys lined up behind 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.120 them on their camel. I'm like, that's Arizona, man, I 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:14.840 guarantee it, you know. So I do appreciate the camaraderie. 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:18.080 Everybody gets one burger, yeah, exactly, we need to buy 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:19.839 it up. It's like I got my share in my 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:24.479 front pocket. So I've always appreciated about that. Like when 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.280 someone has it's like you know, when your house is 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:28.320 on fire and expect everybody to come running. When someone 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:30.359 in the Arizona draws a tag, it's like I'm in 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:35.400 and you guys head out. I want to hit some introductions. 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:44.320 So Lavin Eagle, you're honest, who tell us everyone knows 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:47.960 yournice and then on rare occasion, my big brother Matt 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:57.440 will join. And then we have uh Dr Carl Malcolm 0:04:57.480 --> 0:04:59.400 who's been on a number of times and always comes 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:07.479 and brings his expertise to us. So thank you. But yeah, 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.240 first question for you guys, can you talk a little bit? 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:11.880 I just want people understand a little like, like like the 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:18.000 kinds of things you look at. Yeah, I'm a research 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:22.640 ecologist for U. S D. A. Um. I when you 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:25.200 probably think of an ecologist to think of somebody's outside 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:29.400 looking at birds and plants and bees and stuff like that. 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:31.520 But really what I do on a daily basis and 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:35.359 administer grants and write computer code and do statistics. So 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:38.280 I'm just kind of a geeky kind of a science 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:45.840 guy that sits at a desk. I guess, um, can 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:47.920 you can you ever hear him? Okay, it sound like 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:54.640 to me it sounds like not loud. Now you're you're good, Drew. 0:05:54.720 --> 0:06:02.800 Can you start projecting from my bowels like acting student? Um? Yes, 0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:05.840 a lot of statistics and Carl, do you want to 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:11.000 break it down? Yeah? So also an ecologist. Um. Rather 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:13.800 than doing a lot of research as an ecologist, what 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.479 I do is a lot of trying to apply the 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:21.160 best available science that other people are producing to wildlife management, 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:25.240 wildlife survey question. So kind of a tech transfer position. 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:28.080 But I also get to do a lot of teaching. UM. 0:06:28.279 --> 0:06:31.039 Had a chance to work with the Forest Services International 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:35.440 Programs doing some wildlife ecology trainings in places like Russia, 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:39.160 to get a chance to travel internationally UM and then 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:40.600 one of the coolest things, one of the things I 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:44.279 like most is opportunities to try to communicate about the 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:48.200 significance of the work that we do to the people 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.240 for whom we actually work, which are the American people. 0:06:51.880 --> 0:06:54.880 You know. I like to think about working for an 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:59.880 agency as being a career that you should feel very grateful, 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:03.560 were very privileged, and very service oriented. So when I 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:04.920 meet people for the first time and the like who 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:06.200 do you work for? I like to say, well, I 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:08.760 work for you, work for all of you. You know, 0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:12.480 you guys are my boss and uh as things, you know, 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.240 we have new chiefs come in, we have new administrations 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:19.360 come in. Things change over time, but the one consistent 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:25.160 fact is that public services employees and agencies like the U. 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:27.520 S d A Forest Service work for the American people. 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.080 So I work for all of you trying to help 0:07:30.160 --> 0:07:34.840 care for the single greatest public land system on the planet. Uh, 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:41.560 this guy needs a new drink, Carl. So with that, 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.560 I wanna now you understand that I want to bring 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:46.800 up something that recently happened to me where on a 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:51.480 previous show. I yeah, you guys don't want a hell 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:53.440 of a lot of turkeys, but you want some turkeys 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:56.960 in Arizona, right? So who everyone who was like hunted 0:07:57.000 --> 0:08:02.600 turkeys just do like a yup. Oh really got you 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:04.679 guys all wrong. So one day I was like, anyone 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:08.160 who hunt Turvey's lot knows that the thing is that 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:10.560 everythinks is gonna happen is you're gonna set up and 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.520 call one off a tree and he's gonna come running 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:16.480 over to you. And one day I was like, looking 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:17.960 at how many times you try to do that and 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:19.920 how many times it actually happens? And I got the 0:08:19.960 --> 0:08:24.480 wondering if if it's if it's any better than just 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:28.560 sitting there and not doing anything and waiting to see 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:30.600 if one comes by you, Like, what what are the 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:32.480 odds that one would come by you? And a guy 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:34.520 came up with this, You guys, I can't see this, 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:38.679 but He came up with this very elaborate formula that 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:41.480 explains that if you get a hundred yards from a 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:44.439 bird in a roost tree, and you figured that you 0:08:44.559 --> 0:08:47.600 got thirty yards of range that way and thirty yards 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:50.680 of range that way, you have a nine point four 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:54.480 percent chance that the bird will just naturally come by you, 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:57.360 Which winds up for me calling in the question like 0:08:57.400 --> 0:08:59.080 what exactly I was doing out in the woods that 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:00.920 whole time, because I don't old that I've even hit 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:04.720 like I'm doing like probably like slightly better than what 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:06.800 I would do if I just sat in the woods 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:09.440 by all the antics and all the calling. But I 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:13.360 showed us to Carl and you, um, you were you 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:17.599 gave him a for effort. I'm giving this guy in 0:09:17.840 --> 0:09:23.280 a with an opportunity for extra credit, all right because 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:28.800 his math is sound. Um. I feel like, remember when 0:09:28.840 --> 0:09:32.440 you're in like junior high high school, you're in some 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:36.520 dry math lecture and they give you a word problem. 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:38.640 I feel like if one of my teachers would have 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:41.640 given me this particular word problem, like spelling it out. 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:44.960 You're this many yards from the tree, you can shoot 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:47.120 this far in any direction. What's the likelihood of killing 0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:49.160 a turkey. My attention would have perked up in a 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.240 big way in that class. I've been like, all right, 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:56.560 I'm ready for some math. Let's do this. So there's 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:59.640 probably gonna be a lower volume yep here, but how 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:06.280 many people remember from your trigonometry class? So cut toa yep, 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:12.400 all right, that's a dude, Sokata no um sokotoa. That 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:17.600 was a Japanese philosopher. Now this pertains to write triangles 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:23.679 and how you calculate um. You can calculate the degrees 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:28.040 of a given angle based on knowing the ratio of 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:32.480 length two where the right corner is in the triangle, 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.800 and you can use either the sign function, the cosign function, 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:39.040 or the tangent function. And so this guy basically did 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:43.000 a really cool little formula, very simple, very straightforward. It 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:49.640 gives you an answer um about the likelihood given some 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:52.520 assumptions of a turkey randomly walking past you. I'm not 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.080 disagreeing with any of that, But when you emailed me this, 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:58.800 I said, it looks like his math is sound, but 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:02.160 what matters is whether or not you care about killing 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:05.360 the turkey, because in his in his language, he says, 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.120 here's a function that will tell you the likelihood of 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:09.880 the turkey walking past you, not the likelihood of you 0:11:09.960 --> 0:11:11.800 killing the turkey, and those are two very different things. 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:14.440 Anybody ever have a turkey like walk within range that 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:18.440 didn't end up getting shot? Yep, yeah I have. Alright, 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:23.640 So for extra credit, again, I'm not knocking this guy's math. 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:26.800 I think he did a very sound job. He would 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.400 factor in all. You know. There's a couple of variables. 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:31.920 And to back me up, I'm gonna go to the 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:34.760 single greatest turkey hunting book ever written by anyone, which 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:37.280 we talk about often on this year program, tenth Legion, 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:42.880 Colonel Tom Kelly. All right, so for starters, if you 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:44.440 want to kill the bird, and I'm going to the 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:48.840 techniques chapter here, I'm gonna quote the colonel number one. 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:54.360 What you are interested in here is not shotgun artistry, 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.480 but the simple delivery of a charge of shot. A 0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:01.160 delivery affected often through a hole the size of a grapefruit, 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:04.559 or through a slit like the crack between two loosely 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:08.520 fitting barn doors. You normally only have to deliver it once, 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:11.640 and except to ease the cramped position you may be 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.240 delivering it from, you seldom have to do it in 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.040 a hurry. So what the colonel is getting at here 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:20.480 is that oftentimes the bird might be in range, you 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:22.880 simply don't have a shot. So the first challenge I 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:26.000 would put to this listener is to come up with 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:31.680 what I'm gonna call a visibility correction factor. So you 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:36.360 could imagine theoretically the difference between sitting, for example, in 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.839 the middle of an agricultural field, with turkeys walking by 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:45.280 you at thirty yards hi VCF hi VCF visibility correction factor. 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.559 I like it you're tracking, and you can imagine being 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:52.360 on a real flat surface, or you could imagine being 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:55.920 in a relatively hilly landscape where maybe the turkey has 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.480 the ability to drop down out of sight or thickly 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:02.360 vegetat did Okay, So there's got to be some function 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:06.080 that this trigonometry expert can come up with that would 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.839 correct for differences in visibility, which is gonna pertain to 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.240 whether or not that turkey ends up in your bag 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:17.840 or hoffing for the next ridge. Okay, there's one suggestion. Again, 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:21.640 this is extra credit because the math is sound, all right. 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:27.120 The next one pertains to a very important skill set 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:29.800 that I think only a small number of turkey hunters 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:33.880 have mastered all right. And the kernel in tenth Legion 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:39.640 talks about being being seated such that both knees are 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.839 bent and propped up in front of you, high enough 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:46.520 to make your gun assuming angle of forty five degrees. 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.360 You've achieved this position for several reasons. It lets you 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:54.840 keep the gun partially presented all the time. It is 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:58.720 as comfortable as any If a turkey approaches from your left, 0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.520 he is under the gun. And if he comes from 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:04.720 directly in front of you, you can ease the gun 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:08.200 from your left kneedier right and at the proper time 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:12.400 slouched down even lower, and let the barrel down until 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:17.240 it bears. Now imagine this, everybody. The direction you are 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:21.040 facing is considered to be twelve o'clock straight ahead. And 0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:24.360 the colonel was a right handed man, a turkey gobbler, 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:26.440 who has been keeping you pinned down for an hour 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.840 and a half steps around an oak tree in plain 0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:35.680 sight at thirty yards at quarter after three. If you 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:39.040 were at quarter to nine, skill and intelligence would have 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:44.960 again trumped over ignorance and superstition. But he ain't okay, 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:46.760 So the colonel goes on to say, there's two ways 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:51.440 you can kill this turkey over here at quarter after three. 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:56.120 The first one is, if you are a practicing voodoo 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:58.600 witch doctor, you can strike him dead with a glance. 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.120 It goes on to say, it's a wonderful way to 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.360 kill him. Not only does it save shells, which are 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:09.520 so expensive nowadays, but it does not spoil the meat. If, however, 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.680 you are a mere mortal not skilled in witchcraft or 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:16.400 spells or incantations, you can do one other thing. You 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.960 can very very slowly, one inch at a time, carefully 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:22.320 change hands, bring the gun up to the left shoulder, 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:25.360 squinch up your right eye, look down the barrel, and 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:28.720 bust him right where he stands, in the plain, old fashioned, 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:31.320 expensive way the rest of us do with the shotgun. 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:35.000 So the next variable is what I'm going to call 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:41.960 the Kelly factor. Yeah, can the shooter pull off what 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:47.520 he's talking about and shoot ambidextrous lee? Can they shoot 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:53.400 everything from nine o'clock to three o'clock what Colonel Kelly 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:59.560 calls turning three o'clock birds into nine o'clock birds. And 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.440 so the other extra credit opportunity for this listener would 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:06.040 be figuring in the Kelly factor, what was his dude's 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:10.680 name Adam d Noack. Got more work to do, more 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:14.840 work to do? Uh another like slightly like a numbers 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:19.000 question for you guys, Matt, I won day mutilated something 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:24.840 you were saying about how many stars there how many 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:29.120 planets there are? We're like being interested in animals kind 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:31.200 of up. I'm sorry, some something's gonna bug me for 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:32.560 the rest of the night if I don't say now, 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:34.680 and then Adam's gonna email me and be like, dude, 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:38.240 come on. When he first showed up and gave us 0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:40.640 those pieces of paper, he said, this is in like 0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:43.840 a perfect scenario. You're pretty much like working a bird 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.160 coming off of a single oak tree and you've got 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:49.080 no other you know, no vegg around, you know, nothing 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:52.120 rolling at all. He gave the answer to the toy problem, 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:55.240 which is like an excellent starting point. Yeah, exactly, dude, 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:56.960 I'm not knocking, so I'm just saying that he kind 0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:00.280 of already gotten something credit. He did not say anything 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:04.239 about the Kelly Kelly factor. Yeah, yeah, but your thing was, 0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:07.400 but all the birds that just fly off, there's that too. 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:15.280 There's also there's also the CSTB factor. CSTV can't can't 0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:20.280 see the beard. Oh, that's good. That's good, And there's 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.280 a there's another variable to play. One of the assumptions 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:24.520 would be that the turkey has not detected you on 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:27.520 your approach, because you're making this assumption that you know 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:32.040 degrees in a circle, and he's saying random chance that 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.720 bird could go any direction. But it's pretty darn hard 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:37.320 to get in on a bird and not tip your 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.320 hand at least a little bit to the fact that 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.440 you're there in the woods. So there's some assumptions that 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:44.600 play here. I'm not giving the guy anything less than 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:48.480 an and just saying anything like now I was I'm 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:50.800 getting that framed and hanging out my wall, and nothing 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:53.280 you're saying is maybe not want to hand. He gave 0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:58.679 a very elegant solution to the basic I like it. Yeah, Uh, 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:01.560 being interested in animals, I'm interesting the idea of other 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:07.919 animals on other planets. This comes up often, and uh, 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.199 one day I was saying something like one day I 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:14.679 was talking about saying my brother, this guy here, I 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.280 was saying, he was telling me that, considering how many 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:21.400 other planets there are, you were like, I'm pretty open 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.560 to the idea that there is an eight foot wookie 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:29.760 who hangs out with a smuggler, like and a dude 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:32.880 wrote in and he goes, you know how many are there? 0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:37.480 Because I've heard that there are many as many planets 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:44.480 as there are grains of sand on Earth. Yeah, well 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:46.840 I I heard this. I heard a podcast not long 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:52.320 ago with a physicist and he was saying that, like, theoretically, 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:59.800 it's entirely possible that there are so many um possibilities 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:04.760 for life in the universe that there's probably like somebody, 0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:09.920 a group of an ensemble of people somewhere that look 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:15.920 exactly like all of us talking about you. First, you'd 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.720 come across the scene where everybody is doing like we're doing, 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.600 and it's all exactly the same, except us has a 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:27.680 green shirt. But then if you go further, the chance 0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:30.880 that a turkey walks past you. But yeah, so there's 0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:33.880 this idea that's floating around that's avant garde and physics. 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:35.880 Now that you know, if you're willing to look far enough, 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:46.400 you could find this and not just a wookie. Okay, 0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:49.240 another statistics one. And you kind of talked about this early, 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:50.399 And I really want to get into this because this 0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:52.480 is something that comes up with people all the time 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:57.920 having another encounters with grizzly bears, and I always felt 0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:00.800 like like I had in my head to be that man, 0:20:01.160 --> 0:20:03.920 it seems like it's heading, it's leading somewhere, like this 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:07.119 is going somewhere that every time you know you go 0:20:07.160 --> 0:20:08.560 in the woods, it feels like you're going to the 0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:11.760 grizzly bear areas. It feels like it's just heading in 0:20:11.800 --> 0:20:15.480 a direction. And then this October we had like a 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.520 really like like a big mix up with a bear 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:22.199 and there was a really real close call and there 0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:25.639 was physical contact, uh, with a big brown bear. And 0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:29.280 I later said, like, I feel like I was going 0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:36.560 down a canyon wall wondering where the bottom was, and 0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:39.840 that I had found the bottom now that that was 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:43.520 where this was headed and now there's no way it 0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:47.879 could get worse. And I was now climbing out of 0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:51.560 the canyon wall, and three different guys rode in to 0:20:51.720 --> 0:20:54.359 say that uh, And I was just expressing kind of 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:56.520 like how I felt. But three different guys rode in 0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:59.439 to say that what you're committing is something called the 0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:05.360 gam There's fallacy, or the Monte Carlo fallacy, or the 0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:11.920 fallacy of the maturity of chances, which he pointed out. 0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:15.040 One of the guys pointed out tends to afflict people 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:21.520 who are involved in tag draws, big game tag draws. 0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:24.480 And this is something I've asked you, Matt about a 0:21:24.520 --> 0:21:30.800 thousand times, is how does one call like I used 0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:32.480 to feel like I'd be like, okay, if there's a 0:21:33.320 --> 0:21:36.600 chance to draw on a tag, right, I'd be like, oh, yeah, 0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:40.800 in four years, I'll have that bit right, which isn't 0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:44.080 how it works. Can you Can you span on this 0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:48.440 for a minute. It's a lot to expand on there. 0:21:48.520 --> 0:21:54.480 I mean, yeah, there's a lot to explore. Their probabilities 0:21:54.520 --> 0:22:01.879 are not intuitive miracle objects. Um. First of all, like 0:22:01.920 --> 0:22:05.000 this idea that you had that when when you're your 0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:08.280 analogy about descending a slope and I'm assuming your meaning 0:22:08.320 --> 0:22:12.080 that you felt like the likelihood that you were going 0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:16.680 to get attacked was increasing. Yeah, like the more exposure, 0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:18.360 the greater the chance the attack. And then I feel 0:22:18.359 --> 0:22:20.320 like the attack happened, and I was like, oh, so 0:22:20.359 --> 0:22:23.960 there I've happened, and and now I just feel like 0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:26.440 it won't. Yeah, I can see what I've never heard 0:22:26.440 --> 0:22:28.800 it called the gambler's fallacy before, But I can see 0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:33.440 where I mean because gamblers are guilty of that, and 0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:39.639 source sports enthusiasts like my team is due, I'm due 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:46.240 for it. It's kind of a it's a more it's 0:22:46.240 --> 0:22:51.440 it's it's less intuitive way then of thinking, then just 0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:55.400 straightforward induction. Induction is when you think that the future 0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:58.959 is probably gonna resemble the past. It's more of like 0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:05.120 a counter and auctionist standpoint, where me like, I never draw. Yeah, 0:23:05.280 --> 0:23:07.440 I mean, it seems more logical to me to think 0:23:08.400 --> 0:23:12.560 the more um occurrences I have of not getting attacked 0:23:12.560 --> 0:23:16.280 by a bear, the more that should assure me that 0:23:17.000 --> 0:23:19.600 I'm not going to get attacked by a bear. Right, 0:23:20.119 --> 0:23:24.040 you have some prior probability belief about how before you 0:23:24.080 --> 0:23:26.560 ever go on the mountains, about likelihood that you're gonna 0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:29.280 get attacked by a bearon, and it seems logical you 0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:33.920 would adjust that probability by you know, lowering it each 0:23:33.960 --> 0:23:36.600 time you step forward in the woods and don't get 0:23:36.640 --> 0:23:40.520 attacked by a bear, because I now feel like it's 0:23:40.560 --> 0:23:44.840 gonna happen again. You're like, no, this is the You're 0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:48.240 an inductivist. You're an inductive as straight inductivists, which that 0:23:48.280 --> 0:23:51.920 makes more sense to me. Um. But then the logical fails. 0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:53.919 So you can see where it falls apart where it's 0:23:53.960 --> 0:23:57.480 not applicable with tag draws in general, like this notion 0:23:57.520 --> 0:24:01.320 that your due carries weight when they're preference points as 0:24:01.320 --> 0:24:04.120 there normally is, there's a reason to believe your due 0:24:05.440 --> 0:24:11.000 um And then you know these like the logical fallacy thing. 0:24:11.280 --> 0:24:14.080 It's kind of like the people. It's when the draws 0:24:14.119 --> 0:24:16.879 are independent, like you were saying earlier. You know, like 0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:19.560 when you're taking marbles out of the urn and then 0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:22.600 putting them back and drawing again. But if you get 0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:24.840 attacked by a bear. Let's say you hunt the same 0:24:24.840 --> 0:24:27.080 place for twenty years and then you get attacked by 0:24:27.119 --> 0:24:30.960 a bear, I mean, it gets complicated. Maybe that doesn't 0:24:31.080 --> 0:24:33.080 up the probability that you think the next time you're 0:24:33.080 --> 0:24:35.920 gonna go in there that you're gonna get attacked again, 0:24:36.240 --> 0:24:38.119 because maybe they killed that bear and it was the 0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:47.760