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Speaker 1: Hello there, Happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast. As usual in the Trump era, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of things happening, literally in the moment that

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Speaker 1: I'm choosing to record, which is late on a Tuesday

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Speaker 1: evening and at the same time, so you know, but

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Speaker 1: we're all sadly kind of used to this, but still

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of quick stuff I want to get to.

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Speaker 1: My interview later is with Bruce Melman. He's a long

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Speaker 1: time sort of Washington analyst, has worked in the business

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Speaker 1: of Washington otherwise known as the lobbying world, has keen

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Speaker 1: insight on that. And it actually is a perfectly timed interview.

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Speaker 1: Why because while I conducted the interview before we got

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Speaker 1: word that the Supreme Court was going to expedite it's

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Speaker 1: hearing on the legality of Trump's tariffs, of the Trump tariffs,

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Speaker 1: we went deep on that issue and he gave a

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Speaker 1: pretty good pathway to what happens to the tariffs if

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Speaker 1: the courts rule them unconstitutional bottom line spoiler alert, They're

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Speaker 1: going to likely stay in place. It may take it

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Speaker 1: may be a bit more complicated how they do it.

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Speaker 1: It may be a bit more may take a lot

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Speaker 1: more paperwork. The question I've always had and I've been

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Speaker 1: sharing with you guys, does it lead to a vote

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Speaker 1: in Congress? Is this something Democrats use as leveraged during

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Speaker 1: the shutdown to try to force a vote on these things.

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Speaker 1: It's certainly which potentially short circuit a Supreme Court loss.

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Speaker 1: What's interesting according to the reporting this happened, I happen

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Speaker 1: to be on set on CNN doing the Casey Hunt's

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Speaker 1: show on the Arena, a Casey Hunt former colleague of

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Speaker 1: mine over at NBC. Really like what she's doing. They're

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Speaker 1: really trying to be information and sort of political reality first,

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Speaker 1: not allowing partisans to hijack her program, which I think

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Speaker 1: is always difficult, particularly even in the world of cable

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Speaker 1: news these days. But she does a terrific job of that.

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Speaker 2: But it came in.

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Speaker 1: And what was interesting is, according to sen and reporter

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Speaker 1: Joon Biscupik, it was the Trump folks who wanted to

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Speaker 1: push who was pushing the Supreme Court to actually do

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Speaker 1: this sooner rather than later, which is mildly surprising to

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Speaker 1: me because essentially Trump's you know what Trump wants. What

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Speaker 1: Trump is doing in the argument he's been making about

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Speaker 1: why his tariffs need to stay in place. Is basically said, well,

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Speaker 1: it's too late. I've already collected all this money and

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Speaker 1: we've already used it. It is going to you know,

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Speaker 1: this helps offset, you know, the hole and the deficit

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Speaker 1: that he blew for the tax cuts that he just did.

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Speaker 2: And so.

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Speaker 1: He's essentially trying to say, hey, it's too late to.

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Speaker 2: Rule these unconstitutionals.

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Speaker 1: So the fact that it's expedited and the fact that

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Speaker 1: the Supreme Court wants to do this sooner. Look, you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to overread these tea leaves, but it

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Speaker 1: offers a big, strong hint that it's possible, you know,

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Speaker 1: and that a portion of these are going to be

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Speaker 1: deemed unconstitutional in some form or another. And the sooner

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Speaker 1: you do it, the easier it is to underwind some

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Speaker 1: of them. But I'll be honest. When I first heard

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Speaker 1: it and I thought about this, and I thought about

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Speaker 1: the first thing that came to my head was Obamacare

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Speaker 1: and the ruling back when a lot of conservatives thought

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Speaker 1: that the right leaning Supreme Court would rule Obamacare unconstitutional

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Speaker 1: using the mandate as and that it would, you know,

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Speaker 1: send everything back to the drawing board. And it was

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Speaker 1: the first time we'd seen John Roberts sort of cross

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Speaker 1: the conservative aisle, if you will, right, and he ended

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Speaker 1: up with at the time the four liberals deeming Obamacare constitutional,

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Speaker 1: noting that the mandate essentially was the equivalent of attacks.

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Speaker 2: The point being is.

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Speaker 1: If you look, if you take that decision by Roberts

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Speaker 1: on the Obamacare back then, and then you start to

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Speaker 1: look at it through the prism of how he's of

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Speaker 1: how he's managed a lot of sort of politically sensitive

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Speaker 1: issues that have come before the court. He finds a

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Speaker 1: way to not upset them, those in power too much.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't want to upend things he sees it is.

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Speaker 1: It's like he wants to rule within this very narrow

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Speaker 1: right he's They've created very narrow rulings at times in

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Speaker 1: order to try to get as big of you know,

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Speaker 1: get six three and seven two's rather than too many

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Speaker 1: five fours. So he'll sometimes narrow things and narrow the

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Speaker 1: question that the court is dealing with. But I can't

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Speaker 1: help but assume that he is he is really not

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Speaker 1: wanted to test whether Trump would ignore court rulings. Isn't

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Speaker 1: wanted to have the judiciary be the spark for a

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Speaker 1: constitutional crisis. We can look if something's unconstitutional, just rip

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Speaker 1: off the band aid as my attitude. But we know

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Speaker 1: that if you look at the pattern of the Roberts Court,

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Speaker 1: he's always tried to find a way not to upend

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Speaker 1: things too much. So you know that's why I would say,

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Speaker 1: be careful reading the tea leaves, and I think the

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Speaker 1: bottom line is these tarriffs aren't going to go away.

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Speaker 1: How they stay on, what's the legal format that's done it?

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Speaker 1: If do they need another vote in Congress? Does he

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Speaker 1: use other parts of the law to implement some of

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Speaker 1: these tariffs. That's the beauty of the interview I have

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Speaker 1: today with Bruce Melman. He will tell you all the

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Speaker 1: different ways that these still can be implemented. And it's

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Speaker 1: pretty clear this is still likely more harmful to the economy,

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Speaker 1: likely to be inflationary. If you're wondering about the impact

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Speaker 1: of the revised jobs numbers and what this means to

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Speaker 1: the health of the economy. Well, the fact that there's

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Speaker 1: sort of too quick reactions to that, right one is

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Speaker 1: it turns out the vibes were right. If you recall, right,

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Speaker 1: there was during the presidential campaign last year, you had

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Speaker 1: a lot of Biden. Harris defenders saying, hey, no, the

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Speaker 1: economy is better than you say. It's the media spinning

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Speaker 1: it or it's in You had people pushing back, Well,

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Speaker 1: the vibes are negative. The data may say that the

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Speaker 1: economy is healthy and growing, but boy, the vibes are

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Speaker 1: off here right, And vibes became a thing and all

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Speaker 1: this stuff, Well, guess what when it comes to the

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Speaker 1: perception of the economy.

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Speaker 2: Perception is the reality.

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Speaker 1: You know, if people feel uneasy about the economy, they

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Speaker 1: pull back. And people were feeling uneasy about the economy,

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Speaker 1: and it turns out they were pulling back. Businesses weren't

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Speaker 1: hiring in as big as numbers as it turned out

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Speaker 1: to be. Inflation was having a bigger impact on people's decisions.

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Speaker 1: The housing, the short supply of housing was having And

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Speaker 1: now you throw in two more. So there's already these headwinds.

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Speaker 1: This slow down was happening as Trump takes over, and

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Speaker 1: then he adds two giant sort of if you want

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Speaker 1: to call him headwinds. It's like almost like he turns

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Speaker 1: on a fan and like accelerated these headwinds into the economy.

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Speaker 1: One is tariffs, which creates a massive rise and prices

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Speaker 1: on many consumer goods, and we're starting to see more

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Speaker 1: and more of that creep in exactly when economists said

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Speaker 1: it would, and we're only going to get more of it,

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Speaker 1: not less of it, over the next few months. By

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Speaker 1: the way, keep track of the price of coffee. Coffee

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Speaker 1: could be the gas prices of tariffs, meaning that's what

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Speaker 1: the biggest chunk of people will notice this slow increase

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Speaker 1: in the cost of coffee because we have to import

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Speaker 1: it all and it's been tariffed up that you know what,

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Speaker 1: especially if you like your coffee beans from Brazil, which

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Speaker 1: of course we know the president has been punishing Brazil

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Speaker 1: over over what they've done with their internal political situation

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Speaker 1: involving the attempted kuby former president Bolsnaro. So that's my

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Speaker 1: monitor there. Keep keep keep keep track of that. I

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Speaker 1: think that's the that's the going to be. If eggs

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Speaker 1: were sort of the the symbol of of of the

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Speaker 1: uncomfortable economy that many voters didn't like the price of

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Speaker 1: eggs being sort of the symbol, I think the price

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Speaker 1: of coffee is going to be the symbol, and the

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Speaker 1: tariffs and then of course the other what I guess

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Speaker 1: you could call it an accelerant to the headwinds that

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Speaker 1: we were already facing, is the deportations. Right, this has

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Speaker 1: caused all sorts of labor shortages in the construction market.

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Speaker 1: You know, we're not going to have a housing boom

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Speaker 1: even if they lower rates, because we don't have the

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Speaker 1: workers to build the housing that we need fast enough.

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Speaker 1: So you're still going to have I think this tight

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Speaker 1: labor supply. And look, all of this is you know,

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Speaker 1: the market seem to be happy about this on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: and it's likely because they think, oh good, these lower

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Speaker 1: job ratings. It's only going to push the Fed to

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Speaker 1: maybe lower interest rates quicker, maybe do a bigger cut

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Speaker 1: later this month than was anticipated. But all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: you're setting up potentials for stagflation. Right, we have this

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Speaker 1: slow down happening, we have rising consumer prices, rising inflation,

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Speaker 1: and then if we're already lowering interest rates and it

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Speaker 1: doesn't have the intended impact, then suddenly we're running out

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Speaker 1: of tools in order to goose the economy and do this.

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Speaker 1: So look, this is still a very precarious economy. Politically,

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Speaker 1: Trump can take a victory lap and say, see, I

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Speaker 1: told you this economy wasn't as good as the data

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Speaker 1: was saying back in late twenty and mid to late

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. But it's also a reminder that maybe

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Speaker 1: Democrats should have listened to what the people were saying

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Speaker 1: and listened to the so called vibes, because the vibes

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Speaker 1: turned out to be a much more accurate statement about

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Speaker 1: the state of the economy than the data. And again,

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Speaker 1: you know, sometimes politics is pretty simple if you listen

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Speaker 1: to the voters, and on this one, the voters were

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Speaker 1: saying they didn't like this economy, that this economy wasn't

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Speaker 1: feeling good, they were feeling like something was off, And

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Speaker 1: sure enough, here we are. I'm not sure Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: recipe for improving it is going to work, and I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of skepticism that's going to work.

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Speaker 1: And this may be the worst time to try to

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Speaker 1: retool the economy, as we were already heading into some

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Speaker 1: sort of global slowdown.

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Speaker 2: There, so.

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Speaker 1: The expedited court fight. Keep an eye on John Roberts.

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Speaker 1: But do know, and you'll hear this in the Bruce

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Speaker 1: Moult interview, there is there is plenty of avenues you know,

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Speaker 1: there were put it this way, I was among those

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Speaker 1: in the Camptain thought of boy, maybe the Supreme Court

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Speaker 1: will save our economy and with it perhaps save Trump's

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Speaker 1: political problems as well, because if he's told these are unconstitutional,

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Speaker 1: and he may be angry, it could get him away

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Speaker 1: from doing bad policy. But I think now I'm pretty

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Speaker 1: convinced these are going to stay. The question is what's

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Speaker 1: the legal framework that keeps them in place. The other

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Speaker 1: big couple of other big stories include overseas that have happened.

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Speaker 1: We have the potential incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace.

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Speaker 1: Here's what's but here's the bottom line. This is a

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Speaker 1: continuation regardless of what that situation is, and and they're

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Speaker 1: likely when you're listening to this we'll have a bit

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Speaker 1: more information. But this is fitting a pattern that we've

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Speaker 1: seen since the Alaska Summit. The Alaska Summit was a

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Speaker 1: giant disaster and humiliation for Donald Trump. We just don't

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Speaker 1: cover it through that prism right now because there's all

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Speaker 1: these other stories popping up. But not only did Putin

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Speaker 1: not accept any of the pathways that Trump begged him

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Speaker 1: to take, he's escalated the war on Ukraine. He started

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Speaker 1: to target cities in Ukraine that he hadn't targeted before.

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Speaker 1: He's getting closer to the Polish border. In ways, it's

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Speaker 1: almost he's testing the electric fence. Let's see if we

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Speaker 1: get a reaction. How aggressive can he be? And now

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Speaker 1: you have President Trump trying to get the Europeans to

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Speaker 1: punish the Chinese and the Indians for Russian oil.

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Speaker 2: But it's not as.

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Speaker 1: If we're doing it with China. He's tried to get

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Speaker 1: the Europeans to do tougher sanctions on Russia, even though

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Speaker 1: he is not necessarily advocating the same policy he wants

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Speaker 1: tougher sanctions on China. I know, again he's not practicing

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Speaker 1: what he's preaching to the Europeans on this, but it

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Speaker 1: is This obviously is a dangerous situation. The polls are

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Speaker 1: not going to wait ask for permission from the United

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Speaker 1: States to defend their own territory.

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Speaker 2: So this is a scary situation.

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Speaker 1: This was the situation we've all been scared about with

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Speaker 1: this war between Russia and Ukraine because it is pretty

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Speaker 1: much everybody on the border. He's a NATO member, and

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Speaker 1: this could quickly escalate if we're not careful, And perhaps

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Speaker 1: Putin is trying to test the electric fence here. What

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Speaker 1: will the Americans do? Will they be there? What will

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Speaker 1: NATO do? Speaking of the Americans in a response, Then

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Speaker 1: there is Israel's brazen attack and Oha, the capital of Qatar,

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Speaker 1: who's been housing Hamas, which you know for many this

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Speaker 1: has been a head scratcher for a long time. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the the coziness with which American government officials left and

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Speaker 1: right have made with Katar and how much money they

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Speaker 1: throw at Washington and throw a sort of cultural causes

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Speaker 1: in the United States. And here they were giving harboring

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Speaker 1: the Taliban at one time, how they harbor Hamas, providing

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Speaker 1: safe haven for some of those leadership groups it's been

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Speaker 1: in It's an interesting relationship. I guess if you look

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Speaker 1: at it from the point of view of the Kataris,

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Speaker 1: they've done a good job sort of punching above their weight.

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Speaker 1: They've become this sort of home for potential diplomatic negotiations,

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Speaker 1: whether it was the mosque before that had to do

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Speaker 1: with the pulling out of Afghanistan, and they were the

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Speaker 1: go between with the Taliban. Well, they found out today

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Speaker 1: that the United States wants to be their friend. And

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Speaker 1: they may have found out today that the giving Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump a plane will pay dividends.

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Speaker 2: When they need it.

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Speaker 1: Because Israel decided to violate Qatar's airspace and attack Hamas

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Speaker 1: with really no warning, they did not get a green

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Speaker 1: light from the United States. It appears, I know Trump's

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Speaker 1: credibility is with many of you that are listening, is

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Speaker 1: less than zero, and so you have to take his

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Speaker 1: truth social posts with a.

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Speaker 2: Grain of salt.

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Speaker 1: But the last thing he wanted to do was to

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Speaker 1: piss off the Qatar He's the last thing he wants

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Speaker 1: to do is mess up all of his personal business

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Speaker 1: interests and his kids business interests that are getting all

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Speaker 1: sorts of investments from UAE Guitar and the Saudi's. He

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Speaker 1: really wants to create, expand the Abramaimo Cords. He really

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Speaker 1: wants to create this sort of great financial and business

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Speaker 1: relationship with the Gulf States. So there's no chance, I

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Speaker 1: really believe this. There's no chance that if the Israelis

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Speaker 1: went to the United States before launching this strike and

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Speaker 1: said will you support this, that the United States would

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Speaker 1: have said. Now, I do think they would have, and

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Speaker 1: I do think Trump would have. So the fact is

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Speaker 1: that the Israelis knew this, which is why they jammed

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Speaker 1: Trump on this, right, They apparently they didn't give him

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Speaker 1: a heads up. They got him, gave a heads up

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Speaker 1: only after the United States inquired why are there Israeli

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Speaker 1: jets headed over to the Gulf?

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Speaker 2: What are they up to?

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Speaker 1: And that's of course and by the time, and we've

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Speaker 1: heard the Emir and Qatar say when they found out

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Speaker 1: it was sort of they got a heads up from

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Speaker 1: the United States ten minutes after after the attack in

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Speaker 1: Israel's really put itself in a and it's potentially isolated

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Speaker 1: itself here. I mean, this is and you know, once

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Speaker 1: again bbn net Yaho finds a way to irritate an

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Speaker 1: American president that wants to try to help him, wants

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Speaker 1: to try to support him, and he pushedhes the envelope

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Speaker 1: and pushes the envelope and just absolutely makes it extraordinarily hard.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason Jim Baker, one time Secretary of State

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Speaker 1: for George H. W. Bush, banned a young bb net

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Speaker 1: Noya who from ever even entering the state department. Bill

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Speaker 1: Clinton lost patients with him, George W. Bush lost patients

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Speaker 1: with him. Barack Obama, I've talked about this quite a bit,

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Speaker 1: how much Obama and BB didn't see eye to eye.

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Speaker 1: Trump has actually now soured on him more so in

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Speaker 1: the second term than he did the first term. In

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Speaker 1: the first term, he saw BIEB as a terrific wedge

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Speaker 1: with the Democrats, and I do think that's still how

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Speaker 1: Trump views Israel. It's a way to drive a wedge

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Speaker 1: into the Democratic Party, into their donor, into their donor situation,

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Speaker 1: and it certainly divides right. Supporting Israel divides the Democrats

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Speaker 1: in a way. Frankly, I don't think that any other

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Speaker 1: issue is dividing the party right now. Maybe socialism, and

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Speaker 1: we're going to get to that in a few minutes,

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Speaker 1: but that, you know, in that in some ways may

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Speaker 1: be motivated, may have motivated Trump in the past to

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Speaker 1: sort of give all these green lights to BB and

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Speaker 1: maybe BBE just assumes you can ask for forgiveness on

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Speaker 1: this one. But we'll see how the Gulf States react,

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Speaker 1: you know, if they start being Look, Bibe's unpopular in Israel.

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Speaker 1: But it's an interesting you know, I think i've some

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Speaker 1: of you have heard me rant about this before, the

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Speaker 1: opposition to BBE. There's a majority that want BB out

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Speaker 1: in Israel. But the problem is that anti BB majority

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Speaker 1: can't agree on who should lead it. How it works,

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Speaker 1: It's very similar to this country. There's a majority that

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Speaker 1: doyn't want Trump in there. The problem is that majority

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Speaker 1: can't agree on how to, on how to what the

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Speaker 1: alternative looks like. Right, there's a good fifty five percent

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Speaker 1: majority that is anti Trump, and Trump is But that's

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Speaker 1: all they have in common, right, they don't have anything

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Speaker 1: else in common? Well, you're a I've always used the

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Speaker 1: example of basically AOC the Liz chaining, Right, what do

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Speaker 1: they have in common? Trump's a threat to the to

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Speaker 1: the constitution. Other than that, I don't know how much

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Speaker 1: more they have in common on that. And so when

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Speaker 1: you watch how bb and this is how he can

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Speaker 1: He's basically held power, expanded his power even.

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Speaker 2: As he's become more unpopular.

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Speaker 1: That's why one of my favorite expressions to political scientists

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Speaker 1: is Israel our future?

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Speaker 2: Our future? Or is it a.

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Speaker 1: Glimpse of our past? Did we export this or are

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Speaker 1: we importing their their style of politics into this country?

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Speaker 1: Just something to think about there. There's a reason results

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Speaker 1: matter more than promises, just like there's a reason Morgan

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Speaker 1: and Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. For the

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Speaker 1: last thirty five years, they've recovered twenty five billion dollars

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Speaker 1: for more than half a million clients. It includes cases

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Speaker 1: where insurance companies offered next to nothing, just hoping to

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Speaker 1: get away with paying as little as possible. Morgan and

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Speaker 1: Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: one client was awarded twenty six million dollars, which was

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Speaker 1: a staggering forty times the amount that the insurance company

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Speaker 1: originally offered. That original offer six hundred and fifty thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars twenty six million, six hundred fifty thousand dollars. So

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Speaker 1: with more than one thousand lawyers across the country, they

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Speaker 1: know how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured,

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Speaker 1: you need a lawyer. You need somebody to get your back.

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Speaker 1: Check out for the People dot Com, Slash podcast or

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Speaker 1: dial pound Law Pound five to nine law on your

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Speaker 1: cell phone. And remember all law firms are not the same.

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Speaker 1: So check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free.

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Speaker 2: Unless they win.

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Speaker 1: And finally, before I get to sort of my larger

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Speaker 1: point for the for the morning, the Epstein fives and

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Speaker 1: the decision by the Trump White House and Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: to go full George Orwell on this and just say, nope,

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Speaker 1: I didn't write that letter. So somehow the only forgery

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Speaker 1: in this birthday book from the Epstein estate is somehow,

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Speaker 1: the somehow has to do with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: We don't hear Bill Clinton saying that, we don't hear

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Speaker 1: Alan Dershowitz saying that. You don't hear any of these

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Speaker 1: other folks saying that. And it's always been a head

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Speaker 1: scratcher to me why Trump has set himself up to

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Speaker 1: sort of look this foolish and now maybe you look

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Speaker 1: at what he's created, that he's created this alternative factual universe,

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Speaker 1: and he has got his people willing to believe whatever

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Speaker 1: he says. Right, he you know the infamous quote, you

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Speaker 1: can shoot somebody in Fifth Avenue and nothing would happen

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Speaker 1: to his popularity rating with his base. And Epstein's the

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Speaker 1: first real test of this, right, it's the biggest test yet,

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Speaker 1: probably the biggest test since Access Hollywood. And he's going

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Speaker 1: with it wasn't me defense, Nope, I didn't do it.

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Speaker 2: Nope, that wasn't me.

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Speaker 1: That's got to be a forgery, that's got to be

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Speaker 1: a hoax. And shockingly, so many staffers are willing to

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Speaker 1: put their name on the record. I mean Caroline Levitt,

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Speaker 1: I mean, she just eliminated herself from ever being taken seriously.

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Speaker 2: When she leaves this job.

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Speaker 1: She may feel empowered right now in the moment, and

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Speaker 1: maybe she'll follow Sarah Sanders into politics and just stay

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Speaker 1: in the partisan lane. But many a press secretary, you know,

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Speaker 1: believes their communications genius and they want to be able

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Speaker 1: to work in corporate America. But when you're this brazen

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Speaker 1: about bullshit, when you're this or wellian and willing to

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Speaker 1: put your name on it, when you know he's lying

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Speaker 1: on this, you know he's lying on this. We all

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Speaker 1: know he's lying on this. So it's a it's an

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Speaker 1: it's it's a moment. And you know we've known this

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Speaker 1: that you know, the when the frog boils. It happened

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Speaker 1: slowly and you don't feel it, and all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden it's boiled. And we've been warning of this moment.

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Speaker 1: And the big tech companies with their algorithms that have

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Speaker 1: totally destroyed the information ecosystem, and yet they take no

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Speaker 1: responsibility for their role in this congratulations they've created exactly

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Speaker 1: I you know, I in my current substack. My recommended

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Speaker 1: reading for the week was nineteen eighty four. We have

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Speaker 1: entered it. It is worth rereading. I just reread it recently.

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Speaker 1: It is here we are, and this is the to

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Speaker 1: and maybe it was all building a building to this

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Speaker 1: moment when he had something that was just so hard

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Speaker 1: for him him to erase away in the minds of

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Speaker 1: voters that.

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Speaker 2: He just you know, didn't do it.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm reminded there was an old uh Eddie

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Speaker 1: Murphy stand up that I was obsessed with back when

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Speaker 1: I was in high school. And there's a whole routine

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Speaker 1: and when he gets caught with another woman and he says,

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Speaker 1: what me, baby, what me?

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Speaker 2: What me? Don't I don't know what you're talking about?

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Speaker 2: What me? She walks into the bedroom. Wasn't me?

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Speaker 1: And then he's somehow on the whole sort of the

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Speaker 1: punchline of the joke is some of you who know

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Speaker 1: the routine may know exactly where this is going. And

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to totally get into it here because

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Speaker 1: I'd like to say I'm want to be family friendly ish,

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Speaker 1: and I'll be honest, I don't know how much of that,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's much of that routine of his, both

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Speaker 1: delirious and raw. For you gen xers out there that

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Speaker 1: are that are like that, you know, as you know

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Speaker 1: NSFW not safe for work, not safe for mixed company,

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Speaker 1: probably not safe for any Gen Z or millennial at

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Speaker 1: this point. Just as a quick aside, my sons at

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Speaker 1: and he couldn't believe when he saw clips of Animal House.

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Speaker 1: He's like that that was an inn actual movie. Like

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Speaker 1: he couldn't believe some of the things that were deemed

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Speaker 1: comedic back then. And you know that's that's some of

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Speaker 1: these stand up routines from the eighties. But I'll admit

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Speaker 1: that's I was thinking about that when I see Trump

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Speaker 1: just sort of nope, not me, not my signature, none

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Speaker 1: of that's it's certainly brazen in our first truly the

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Speaker 1: most Orwellian moment I think we've had so far in

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Speaker 1: the Trump era. The question is whether this has a

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Speaker 1: huge impact on him, and the way it all depends

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Speaker 1: on how Democrats use it. I don't think Democrats have

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Speaker 1: as much credibility in the Epstein issue itself, because I

435
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 1: think it is easy to say, hey, where were you

436
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 1: last year on this? You know, when you guys had

437
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: the ability to do all this. You didn't do it,

438
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: now you care because it seems to make Trump squirm.

439
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 1: So I think the issue itself is hard for them

440
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 1: to weaponize. But here's where I think the issue can

441
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: be effective. If you're trying to make the case that

442
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 1: Donald Trump keeps lying to you about you know, he

443
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: told you he was going to do this with the economy.

444
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: He told you he was going to create the golden

445
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: age of this. You know he's not telling you the truth.

446
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: Doesn't tell you the truth on the Epstein files, doesn't

447
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: tell you the truth about that, doesn't tell you.

448
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 2: The truth about this.

449
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: So that's how I think it can be used as

450
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: sort of in the if you're trying to essentially make

451
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 1: the case to the jury of voters of he's not

452
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 1: he you know the reason this economy has not gotten better,

453
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: it's gotten worse because what he told you is not

454
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: true and turned out to be not true. And how

455
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: do you know that he will just say whatever it

456
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: takes to convince you otherwise, You know, look at this

457
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 1: Epstein story, and it is sticky enough where people know

458
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 1: the story it is not I do not believe it's

459
00:26:55,880 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 1: a voting issue, but I believe it's a piece of

460
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: evidence that can be used to make the case to

461
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 1: a swing voter they that you know, Republican X can't

462
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 1: be trusted, you know, that sort of thing. And so

463
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 1: that's where I think it can be effective. My substack

464
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 1: this week, and I hope you've I don't charge for

465
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 1: my substack. It is free, So get over there and

466
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 1: subscribe and you'll be the for you That way, you

467
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 1: get it immediately without having to go search for it.

468
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 1: I talk about basically, I single out the challenge that

469
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 1: the Democrats have right now and that they sort of

470
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 1: need to be thinking about twenty thirty two, the twenty

471
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: thirty two presidential race, and are they going to be

472
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: a competitive national party in twenty thirty two, and how

473
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: do they make sure they are a competitive national party

474
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 1: in twenty thirty two. And so I start by outlining

475
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four electoral map. And when you look

476
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: at the twenty twenty four electoral map, Kamala Harris was three.

477
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 1: There was a there were three states that if she

478
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 1: won that she didn't would have given her exactly two

479
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy electoral votes. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania had she

480
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 1: won those three states, carried everything else that she carried,

481
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 1: she'd had two hundred and seventy electoral votes. Trump would

482
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: had two sixty eight. As you know, the twenty thirty

483
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 1: cent census is coming. After that, we reapportion and there

484
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 1: are in the electoral vote count changes and potentially in

485
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 1: all fifty states.

486
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 2: Now it won't be all fifty states.

487
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 1: Some states will get more congressional seats, therefore their electoral

488
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,479
Speaker 1: vote margin will get bigger, and some states will lose. Well,

489
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 1: when you look at that fictional map, I just described

490
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,959
Speaker 1: to you with a two what what could have been

491
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 1: a two seventy two sixty eight path, And it's the

492
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: path that does exist for Democrats in twenty twenty eight,

493
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: the narrowest swath their old blue wall. But by twenty

494
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: thirty two, that same path would only account for two

495
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty nine electoral votes, which means they have

496
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: to go find one potentially one more state in the Sunbelt.

497
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: Arizona would be eleven electoral votes likely, so that would

498
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: be enough, would get them right on the number. But

499
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 1: the purpose of this piece was sort of looking at Georgia,

500
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: North Carolina and how I believe you know So if

501
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 1: you look at the last thirty years, right, for the

502
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: first ten years of the twenty first century, the two

503
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 1: most important battleground states were Florida and Ohio, Right, it

504
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: was Ohio was John Kerry's last stand. Florida was Al

505
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: Gore's last stan Barack Obama carried both Florida and Ohio

506
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 1: and twenty oh eight and twenty twelve, and Donald Trump

507
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: carried both Florida and Ohio in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.

508
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: So they've been serving as that as that bell. They're

509
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: no longer obviously, they've become pretty Republican at this point.

510
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 1: Over the last two president three presidential cycles, the three

511
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 1: most important swing states been Michigan, Wisconsin, in Pennsylvania. Right,

512
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 1: had Hillary one of them, she'd have gotten the presidency.

513
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 2: She didn't.

514
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 1: That was his narrow path to go get the presidency,

515
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 1: and he got it. Biden wins him back, he wins

516
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: the presidency. Harris can't win them, she loses the presidency.

517
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: But going starting in twenty thirty two, it is going

518
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: to be Georgia North Carolina when those if those states split,

519
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: were in for an electoral college nail buyer. But when

520
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: those two states go in the same direction that party

521
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 1: is going to win the White House. By the way,

522
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 1: this means they're also extraordinarily important now for Democrats to

523
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 1: be competitive in if they want to hold, ever get

524
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 1: a majority in the Senate.

525
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 2: Again, I mean this is stay with.

526
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: Me here, but if you look at the maximum Senate

527
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 1: number of Senate seats that Democrats could win if they

528
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: just won every Senate seat in blue states, consistent blue states.

529
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: And I count Maine as one of those consistent blue states.

530
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: And they win all of the Senate seats in the

531
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 1: seven battle grounds of the last two cycles, the seven

532
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 1: battlegrounds being Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina.

533
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 2: Do you realize if.

534
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 1: They won every Senate seat in all of those states,

535
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: they'd only their ceiling of US Senate seats as fifty two.

536
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: That would be their ceiling. Republicans hold fifty three seats

537
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: right now. So you see the problem here. So the

538
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: question is is the party thinking about what are they

539
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: doing today to prepare for this moment in twenty thirty

540
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 1: two when they're potentially dealing with a basically a short

541
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 1: deck when it comes a narrow, much more narrow path.

542
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 2: To the electoral College.

543
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: They've got to figure out how to expand their path.

544
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: They got to figure out how not to see this

545
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 1: CeNSE and maybe the census. And by the way, if

546
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 1: Republicans control the census, even in a post Trump world,

547
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: are they going to follow the lead at Trump and

548
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 1: essentially politicize it as much as they can or walk

549
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: right up to the line of the law and create

550
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: a situation that makes it even harder right maximizes Republican

551
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: gains and places like Idaho and Utah, so really sort

552
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: of almost lock out the Democrats from their ability to

553
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: win the House. And if they've not had any success

554
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: expanding the number of states they can be competitive in

555
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 1: and statewide offices, you know, a Kansas and Iowa, a Mississippi,

556
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 1: a Nebraska, then they're still stuck with this narrow path.

557
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: So the point being is in twenty twenty six, the

558
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: two most important races in America, the two most important

559
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 1: states in America are going to be Georgia and North Carolina,

560
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: because they are going to tell us whether democultd be

561
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 1: And this gets to their rural vote problem, and I think, frankly,

562
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 1: this gets to their socialism problem. Right, We just saw

563
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: some new poll in coming out of Gallup that shows

564
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: that it know of the thirty six to thirty nine

565
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: percent that favors socialism over capitalism, it's driven almost exclusively

566
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: by Democrats, that a majority of Democrats are a bit

567
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: more favorable to socialism than to capitalism. Understandable. I totally

568
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: get how this happened financial crisis. In fact, we have

569
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 1: a nice conversation with Bruce Melman on this topic as

570
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: well and how you get there. But I don't think

571
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: the current leadership of the Democratic Party understands the toxicity

572
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: of the word socialism and if the Sun Belt is

573
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: going to become the new battleground of American politics, replacing

574
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 1: the Midwest over the next couple of cycles, and I'm

575
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: just telling you it is where Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

576
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: and potentially other Sun Belt states are going to determine

577
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,080
Speaker 1: political power in this country, who controls the Senate and

578
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: who controls the White House. The S word doesn't play

579
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 1: well in the South, you know, in the Midwest, in

580
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 1: the in the Northeast, and even out west, democratic socialism

581
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 1: does not spark sort of immediate sort of flinching or

582
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: automatic negative feelings because many of those voters when they

583
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: hear the word socialism, they do think of European socialism.

584
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: But down south, particularly in the southeast where I grew

585
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: up in Miami in particular. But this is true, I

586
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: think in South Texas, and this is going to be

587
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 1: true in Phoenix. The the culture, the Latin the when

588
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 1: when people in the South hear the word socialism, they

589
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 1: look south. And some of the most thuggish authoritarian regimes

590
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 1: in the South have called themselves socialist regimes in some

591
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 1: form down in Latin America. And that is why it

592
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: is such a you know, the ES word is so

593
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 1: toxic in South Florida with so many you know, first second,

594
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 1: third generation Latinos who who have parents or grandparents who

595
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: have told them stories about these authoritarian dictatorships under the

596
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 1: guise of socialism that brutalize their family or brutalize people

597
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,959
Speaker 1: that they knew, and so I I you know, as

598
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 1: the Democrats think about their future and look at that

599
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: twenty thirty two election and ask themselves that they can

600
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 1: be a majority party again by twenty thirty two, that

601
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: can they be competitive, can they be on par with

602
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 1: where the Republicans, Why don't trajector appear to be headed.

603
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 1: They're just gonna have to rebrand and they're gonna have

604
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 1: to back off. This socialism work. It does not work.

605
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: You can explain it away, you know you can. You

606
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: might be better off making the argument that Trump is

607
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 1: embracing socialism when it comes to Intel and some of

608
00:35:55,960 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 1: these other things he's doing with us Steele. But this

609
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: is this is they needed. If they need something to

610
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: quote unquote Sister Soldier away from it is that doesn't

611
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 1: mean the specific policies that fall under the umbrella that

612
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 1: some people call democratic socialism aren't stuff worth pursuing putting

613
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: him in your platform. But you've got to almost decidedly

614
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: make sure people don't confuse it with socialism and trying

615
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: to embrace it and trying to rebrand it. It may

616
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 1: make you feel better in a dorm room somewhere on

617
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: the campus at Dartmouth or Brown, but it is not

618
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: going to win over swing voters in the Sunbell. It

619
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:43,280
Speaker 1: just isn't going to do it. Maybe if mom Donnie

620
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: is elected and he has and it's just this miraculous

621
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,439
Speaker 1: transformation of New York City in a three to six

622
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 1: year period that it might change the minds of voters.

623
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 1: But I'm pretty skeptical of that. And if they go

624
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 1: down this road embracing any form whatever they want to

625
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: describe it, but if they're using the S word, if

626
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 1: they're if they're not comfortable pushing back when accused of

627
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 1: being a socialist, I think this is going to be

628
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 1: a long, much longer, much longer time in the wilderness

629
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 1: for Democrats if they're not anyway, I just I found

630
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 1: myself when I was looking at what's twenty thirty two

631
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: going to look like, and you see where the Democrats

632
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 1: are today. It shows you these next three election cycles

633
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:36,760
Speaker 1: are going to determine right sort of who's in charge

634
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 1: of the census in twenty thirty. So the twenty twenty

635
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: eight presidential election is going to decide which party's in

636
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 1: charge of the census twenty six and the twenty thirty

637
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 1: mid terms are going to help elect the state legislatures

638
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: and the governors who are going to decide what the

639
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: congressional map looks like. So now you suddenly see why

640
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: this midterm, You know, can the Democrats expand their reach

641
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: a bit, can they go into new states? Can they

642
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 1: break through in order to expand their ability to win

643
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: in more states. In order to do that, they're going

644
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 1: to have to broaden their economic message, probably cut down

645
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: on some of the on some of the cultural issues,

646
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 1: and really sort of make a concerted effort to push

647
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:28,360
Speaker 1: social to push the brand of socialism out of their party.

648
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: I think there are some ideas they can use and

649
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 1: fight for, but they've got to be under the under

650
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 1: the umbrella of capitalism. I'm convinced of this if they

651
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: want to be competitive in these Sun Belt states. All right,

652
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 1: with that, I'm going to sneak in a break coming

653
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 1: up after I've got my top five list for the

654
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 1: week after the interview, and.

655
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 2: Also a little bit of Ask Chuck.

656
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: But we'll sneak in a break here for those of

657
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 1: you listening to the entire pot and one download coming up.

658
00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 2: My friend Bruce mellow.

659
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 1: Well joining me now is somebody who's going to become

660
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 1: a candidate for the eventual Toodcast Hall of Fame of

661
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: Guests because he now joins Mark Zandy and Jake Sherman

662
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 1: in this iteration of becoming a repeat guest of the

663
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast.

664
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 2: He's actually a three time.

665
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: I don't know how we're gonna you know, it's like,

666
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 1: do you account laugh in appearances with your SNL appearances

667
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 1: back in the day, but many of you. Bruce is

668
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 1: just one of my favorite smart people to talk to,

669
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 1: pure and simple. He's sort of a Washington smart guy.

670
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 1: Works in Washington, the business of Washington. Yes, that means

671
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 1: representing corporate interests, sometimes dealing with Congress.

672
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 2: I think there was a time he had a political party.

673
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 1: I don't know if he does any more, but it

674
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 1: doesn't matter whether he does or not. His analysis is

675
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 1: a his database, his substack. He took what we've loved

676
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 1: his quarterly reports, he started into a weekly substack. You

677
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: get Sunday Morning charts from him. He's just, uh, it's

678
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 1: just good every once in a while to have a

679
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 1: smart guy on this podcast, right, we don't have enough

680
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:15,919
Speaker 1: of them.

681
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 2: I am on TV. You're Martin Short, Chuck. Well, there

682
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 2: you go.

683
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: I think it was, was it Martin Martin Short? That's

684
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 1: a you're right, I mean Martin Short. By the way,

685
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 1: he's one of those comedians. Comedian everybody in the business

686
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 1: like holds him up higher than everybody else, even though

687
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: the public doesn't.

688
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 2: Always for whatever reason. Well, I was just going for

689
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 2: the frequency of guests, figuring I don't deserve to call

690
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 2: myself Steve Martin.

691
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's what I was going for. Yeah, that's it. Yeah,

692
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 1: that's it. Well, welcome, good to see you.

693
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 2: Great to see you as well. I love the sort

694
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:57,240
Speaker 2: of the Chuck Todd unchained now that you are an entrepreneurial,

695
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 2: not tied to any particular media property that has to

696
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 2: negotiate public spectrum licenses. You say what you want, you

697
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 2: do what you want. It's, you know, sort of like

698
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: our mutual buddy Solisa. It's it's it is fun to

699
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,479
Speaker 2: see somebody who has been as successful at you going

700
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 2: to traditional route, going totally off menu and just every

701
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: night whipping up really cool, interesting recipes.

702
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: So here's the question I have for you, because I,

703
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: you know, i'd like to think that when I was at.

704
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 2: Cable Town.

705
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 1: And the network that's owned by Cabletown, figure I might

706
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,240
Speaker 1: as well use a little thirty Rock reference there.

707
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 2: Is I never thought I was.

708
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 1: You know, what I would say is, I never thought

709
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 1: I was holding things back, but I might have rounded

710
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 1: the edges in order to sort of keep the peace right.

711
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 1: You had to keep the peace sometimes internally keep the

712
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 1: peace with You know, if if I got in a

713
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 1: booking problem, that could hurt the morning show, it could

714
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,760
Speaker 1: hurt an evening show. You know, all sorts of issues.

715
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: And yet you know that description you just made, You know,

716
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 1: I both appreciate it, but it's also an indictment on

717
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: traditional media.

718
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 2: Right now.

719
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 1: We're in a tough spot where, Look, I know the

720
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: individual journalists want to do more, and they do feel

721
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 1: as if they're being held back. Not maybe sometimes it's

722
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 1: even not specifically, it's just more the climates holding them back.

723
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 1: Why do you think so many of them are struggling

724
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: to break out of it?

725
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 2: I think there are a couple of things going on.

726
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 2: I mean, first, the Internet broke politics, and it broke media,

727
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 2: and we are still in an era of trying to

728
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 2: figure out what are the ways to operate? What are

729
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 2: the rules? You know, from in politics, how do you

730
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 2: run primary elections? How do you draw district lines? But

731
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:53,240
Speaker 2: in media, the old the old model of advertising got demonetized.

732
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 2: Then you can currently have this technological tsunami where one

733
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,720
Speaker 2: of the reasons, well, Cronkite was the most trusted person

734
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 2: in America at nineteen seventies, there were only three networks,

735
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 2: so there was no competition. Nobody was beating them with

736
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 2: a tweet to some weirdo fact. There weren't, you know,

737
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 2: Joe Rogan and Splinter competition things.

738
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:18,479
Speaker 1: You might add Dick Caviott and Tom Schneider, right, well,

739
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:21,800
Speaker 1: they were the closest thing we had to some cultural critics,

740
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 1: at least on the telee.

741
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, but at six point thirty PM, you and your

742
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 2: family were watching one of three networks. And so the

743
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 2: instinct for a network at that point is appeal to

744
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 2: the whole nation, play it down the middle of the fairway,

745
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 2: go slow, and kind of enforce the norms. And subsequently,

746
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 2: people who didn't want to watch news wanted to just

747
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 2: watch sports. All right, we lost them to ESPN, and

748
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 2: people who felt that either Fox was less biased or

749
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 2: frankly more likely to affirm their beliefs went there. And

750
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 2: the media used to inform us and we would accept

751
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 2: the set of facts. Now we go where the facts

752
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 2: are what we want them to be. And so I think,

753
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 2: if I look at you, you kind of came of

754
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 2: greatness just at the time when the Cronkite Russer opportunity

755
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 2: was being foreclosed by a combination of technology, of the Internet,

756
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 2: of the way politics were changing. Where I see the

757
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 2: extraordinary opportunity now is in the sub stack. Is in

758
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 2: the podcasters, the people who were kind of building their

759
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 2: own audiences, and the viewers like me and you who

760
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 2: were putting together our own you know, the Bruce Daily

761
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 2: News is, you know, Noah Smith and you and Derek

762
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 2: tom True all over the place.

763
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny I find the substack feed. I

764
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 1: had this conversation with Brad Todd. You know, we're not related,

765
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:46,359
Speaker 1: but if you told me, if we go back seven

766
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: or eight generations, I think we both have the Scotch Irish,

767
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:50,320
Speaker 1: at least on my Todd side of things.

768
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 2: He was talking about how you.

769
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,760
Speaker 1: Know here he is a conservative, and he even admits

770
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: he goes substack feels like at times quote unquote lean's left.

771
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: But it's but it's it's not an ideological lean right,

772
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 1: if anything, and if anything, though, it's a robust, healthy

773
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: forum for debate. That's substack feed where people occasionally post

774
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 1: their stuff and react. It's uh, it was like it's

775
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 1: like a flashback to like the first two years of Twitter.

776
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 2: Yeah you look, if you if you feel like your

777
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 2: substack is leaning left or right. It's because you've curated

778
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 2: it to lean left or right. You know, when I

779
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: do a lot of public speaking, I know you do too,

780
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 2: And kind of towards the end, often people ask, well,

781
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 2: what's your advice? And you know, my two biggest pieces

782
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:41,240
Speaker 2: of advice. One, you know, this one is read history,

783
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 2: because we all have this recency bias. It's never been

784
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 2: this bad, but that's what they said in the nineties,

785
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 2: they said that in the seventies it's been really very Yeah.

786
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,879
Speaker 2: But the other one is balance your media diet. Take

787
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 2: a look who you know. If you are only reading

788
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 2: people you agree with and watching people you agree with,

789
00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 2: you're not doing it right. Find people not who are

790
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,720
Speaker 2: shrill and horrible, but who you think maybe get it wrong,

791
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 2: but boy are they thought provoking and occasionally they make

792
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 2: you realize you get it wrong for some And that takes.

793
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,399
Speaker 2: That takes intentionality a lot of It's just a lot

794
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 2: easier to just turn on the network and it's all right,

795
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 2: it's all left. But I think that leads to a

796
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,399
Speaker 2: much less healthy democratic dialogue.

797
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: Well, I guess the reason it's funny you say that

798
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 1: on the curation because I've done that I curate very

799
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: I think. I Here's what I've found it fascinating with

800
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 1: my different feeds is I did the same thing on Twitter.

801
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 1: That Twitter feed feels very right leaning. Now now I

802
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 1: don't know it's whether people I followed on the left

803
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 1: have just left right and they don't contribute, so my

804
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 1: feed goes that way. And you know, I feel like

805
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 1: at a fairly I have a fairly even feed and

806
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 1: substack and maybe the lefties just stack more or what

807
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 1: do we call it restacking and that or whatever it is. So,

808
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 1: but it is interesting how you I will just say

809
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: there's there's a better intellectual conversation taking place in substack

810
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: than there is an other social media outlets.

811
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:05,919
Speaker 2: Well, I think that's right. And look, let's be honest.

812
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 2: I mean Twitter got bought by Elon Right, who start

813
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 2: number one thing is to make sure that his own

814
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 2: tweets are most visible and most seen. And at the

815
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 2: end of the day, you know, he paid for the microphone,

816
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 2: so I guess he has the right to do that.

817
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 2: It's definitely gone very hard to the right. I do

818
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 2: think some of it is the the kind of left flight,

819
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 2: but I think some of it is the algorithm, the

820
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 2: algorithm's prioritization schemes make it voices on the right, which

821
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 2: if you go back ten years, we're fewer and more

822
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 2: likely to be, you know, hard pressed to get through.

823
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 2: And now the opposite is true. Yeah, I no, that's

824
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:43,959
Speaker 2: for sure.

825
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 1: Before I get into sort of where we are, and

826
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:48,399
Speaker 1: I've got a couple of ideas I want to throw

827
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 1: at you get your reaction to. But you know, look,

828
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 1: you you understand sort of the business of Washington, and

829
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,280
Speaker 1: you know, when you look at the last six months

830
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 1: and we've seen I guess I find it remarkable how

831
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:07,439
Speaker 1: many titans of industry have decided to buy houses in DC.

832
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: It's a stop right, whether it's Peter Tiel, Mark Zuckerberg,

833
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 1: these guys, it is in the same way twenty years

834
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 1: ago it felt as if those rich guys needed a

835
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 1: place in New York, at place at LA and their

836
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 1: place in Silicon Valley. Now Washington is a ten pole

837
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 1: right for this. What is that meant for the business

838
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 1: side of Washington? What does that meant for K Street?

839
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 1: And are we in a situation now where success at

840
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,280
Speaker 1: a firm is not bipartisan clients?

841
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not sure how many clients are bipartisan in

842
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,120
Speaker 2: terms of you know, one of my longest clients, one

843
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 2: of my favorite clients is Walmart. They're not a partisan entity.

844
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 2: Fight great.

845
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 1: They try really hard not to be right. Well, I

846
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 1: guess my better question was bipartisan firm. How hard is

847
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:58,359
Speaker 1: it to be a bipartisan firm these days?

848
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,720
Speaker 2: In Washington? They used to be the killer.

849
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 1: That was the goal of every successful lobbyist was the

850
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 1: minute if it was somebody in the right, you know,

851
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: like and I saw Brian ballor do this a couple

852
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 1: of years ago he went and hired a bunch of Democrats,

853
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:12,360
Speaker 1: like I want to own it all just in case,

854
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: my guy, my side isn't empower. You saw the same

855
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 1: thing with the Tony Pedesta's of the world on the

856
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 1: left side of the arm. He was like, I got

857
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 1: to go find me some Republicans. Is that I feel

858
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 1: like that's an out It feels a tad outdated because

859
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 1: of the way Trump operates. But I'm curious how you

860
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 1: read the lay of the industry land here inside the

861
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 1: business of DC.

862
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,760
Speaker 2: Look, we're twenty we're in year twenty two of our firm.

863
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 2: We have eleven Republicans and eleven Democrats. We've always been

864
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:43,399
Speaker 2: plus or minus one. It's intentional and design and we're

865
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 2: more effective because of it. Start with, as you know,

866
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 2: the pendulum swings back and forth. You know, Karl Rove

867
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 2: didn't say permanent majorable majority. He's a durable majority. In

868
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 2: two thousand and four, and two years later, the House

869
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 2: and the Senate had already both gone the other direction.

870
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 2: Obama had six the Senate Democratic votes. They lost the

871
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 2: House two years later, and by twenty fourteen Republicans were

872
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 2: controlling the Senate. So long term, if you don't want

873
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 2: to feast and then famine go back and forth, you

874
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 2: want to be by partisan is thought number one. Number two,

875
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 2: it depends who you are as a firm and as people.

876
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 2: I don't want ideologues at my shop. I want people.

877
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 2: I mean, the Republicans and Democrats have as much in

878
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:27,399
Speaker 2: common with each other in terms of you know, some

879
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 2: of us are parents of three kids, and you know,

880
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 2: with kids, they're empty nests, and it's we all like

881
00:50:32,239 --> 00:50:34,879
Speaker 2: working together, you know, with all due respect, I don't

882
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 2: want ideologues. I want If you're that ideological, you're probably

883
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 2: not going to be good in a consulting job because

884
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 2: you won't like half your clients because of what they

885
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 2: make or you know, or the their views on climate

886
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 2: one way or the other. We have the I think

887
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 2: the book was entitled the No Asshole Rule. We have

888
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 2: a policy of higher nice people who like working with

889
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 2: each other. The last thing I'd say, and I think

890
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 2: you probably see this too. I bet sometimes you get

891
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 2: some of your best Trump insights from your Democratic friends,

892
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 2: and sometimes you get some of your best insights on

893
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 2: what's happening among Democrats from Republicans. We definitely find that

894
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 2: when we are offering Republican insights. Yet we know these guys,

895
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,760
Speaker 2: we talk to these guys, but there's a group think

896
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 2: and every now and then. My favorite story ever is

897
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:23,399
Speaker 2: one of my old buddies, I know, you know David

898
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 2: Castegnetti too. He used to be you know, he was

899
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 2: an early partner of mine, and there was we were

900
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:30,879
Speaker 2: in a meeting one day and this it was a

901
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 2: killer room of really you know, former staff directors, chiefs

902
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 2: of staff, the leadership, and Castegnetti says, I think Bayner

903
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 2: is going to resign, and the whole room is all

904
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 2: these Republican royalty like, what are you talking about, dude?

905
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 2: And he's like, you know, he's a Catholic guy. He

906
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,879
Speaker 2: just had the pope like it's no fun anymore for him.

907
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:53,959
Speaker 2: Literally in that meeting, everybody's back. Then BlackBerry goes off.

908
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:57,360
Speaker 2: Baynor has announced he's retiring. I mean, it never happens.

909
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 2: That would happen ten minutes after like a move. And

910
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 2: the only problem casting that he failed to pull a Costanza.

911
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:07,319
Speaker 2: You need to at that point stand up, button your coat,

912
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: turn around and just leave, just simply walk out. It's

913
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:13,760
Speaker 2: truly said the mid I'm out right, you know, because

914
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 2: he was looking through a different lens. He had an

915
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 2: insight that the rest of us missed. So I think

916
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 2: our clients, I mean, right now there's there's leaning heavier on.

917
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 2: Who knows the new teams, who can get in front

918
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,919
Speaker 2: of these guys. It is an our our town house,

919
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:31,359
Speaker 2: senate white house that never lasts forever, and so by

920
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 2: partisan I think remains both easy enough to operate. It's

921
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:36,360
Speaker 2: easier to be an R now than a D. But

922
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 2: it's it's you know, we stick together.

923
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:40,880
Speaker 1: There was the so called K Street project back in

924
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 1: the day that was an attempt to try to you know,

925
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 1: some would argue right size K Street that it had

926
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 1: a left lean certainly in the early oughts because of

927
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 1: the Clinton years, you could, I guess you could have

928
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 1: made that case. We see the purge taking place in

929
00:52:55,800 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 1: other operations. Have you felt pressure in Trump world when

930
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: it comes to that, and if not, you have you

931
00:53:03,760 --> 00:53:10,359
Speaker 1: seen other vendors in this space sort of not take

932
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 1: a client or take a client.

933
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 2: In a way that tries to curry favor with Trump? Well,

934
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 2: I certainly think everyone is mindful of whatever you do

935
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 2: publicly and how it may be received. I've seen that more,

936
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 2: you know, Unlike in twenty seventeen when there were no

937
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 2: Trump firms or magafirms, you know, was he surprised the world?

938
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:36,719
Speaker 2: That's when Ballard moved up wisely perceiving that Ballard was

939
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 2: really just sort of a regional guy. You know, he's

940
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 2: a glassy guy, you know. So that's changed radically. There's Ballard,

941
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,760
Speaker 2: there's Miller, there's Continental, There's a lot of Trump firms,

942
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 2: and there are a lot of firms with Trump one

943
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:51,800
Speaker 2: point zero or Trump fundraiser types. So what's really different

944
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 2: this time is you have an entire set of sort

945
00:53:56,200 --> 00:54:00,400
Speaker 2: of swamp creatures who are very much altra Trump all

946
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 2: the time. Now you know, Ballard took Harvard, so I

947
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:06,439
Speaker 2: don't see them necessarily looking away clients. What I hear

948
00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 2: from the market is, first, those guys are asking extraordinary prices,

949
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 2: you know, just crazy numbers and stuff that I would blush.

950
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 2: And I you know, I'd like high numbers if I

951
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 2: can get them. But but numbers that are massively out

952
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: of market. And their theory is they can get they'll

953
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 2: name check somebody selling, well, they're selling access. That's what

954
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:27,239
Speaker 2: they're what basically what they're selling. Right, Hey, we can

955
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 2: get inside that West Wing. We'll get you a meeting

956
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 2: with with Susan success and a claim of knowledge. But

957
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 2: but you know, as you see, I forget the I

958
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:37,800
Speaker 2: forget the name of that new club where best and

959
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 2: just threatened to punch the fuilty in the face.

960
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: Right see the near it's near seventeen eighty nine in

961
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 1: the restaurant, right executive briefing or whatever it is like

962
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 1: five hundred thousand dollars to join.

963
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 2: There is kind of a new What I've seen in

964
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:57,319
Speaker 2: near one of Trump two point zero is you know,

965
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 2: there is now this whole group quick to say we

966
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 2: are uniquely capable of getting folks in. They're charging huge

967
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 2: amounts of rates. You know, as judged by Harvard, I

968
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 2: don't believe you hire these guys, And I don't know

969
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 2: anybody who hired them and somehow got an exemption from

970
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 2: taxes tariffs. There are no exemptions from tariffs. But given

971
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 2: that right now, the Republicans in Congress are so subservient

972
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 2: to the President, they are so whatever, you know, how

973
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:27,920
Speaker 2: high mister President, I'm finding that those with long standing,

974
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:32,239
Speaker 2: deep Hill relationships maybe have a little bit less that

975
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:34,000
Speaker 2: you can offer in the short term because they're not

976
00:55:34,080 --> 00:55:37,759
Speaker 2: passing laws, they're declaring emergencies, they're putting out executive orders,

977
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 2: they're doing tariffs. We found when the one big beautiful

978
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,800
Speaker 2: bill came out, the big tax reconciliation, we were super

979
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 2: busy and a lot of the newer firms, or a

980
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:51,280
Speaker 2: lot of the only Trump administration firms, didn't have the experience,

981
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 2: the knowledge, the reach whatever to be as effective. And

982
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:57,000
Speaker 2: I tend to think, again the pendulum swings that we

983
00:55:57,000 --> 00:56:00,239
Speaker 2: were not going to be in a unitary executive four

984
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 2: year Congress. Doesn't matter, it comes and it goes. But

985
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 2: the first six months were pretty heavy duty. Out of

986
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:07,240
Speaker 2: the gate executive branch.

987
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:10,200
Speaker 1: You brought up Miller in there, Jeff Miller, who was

988
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:14,240
Speaker 1: in some ways, you know, he had he was close

989
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 1: to the former speaker Kevin McCarthy.

990
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 2: Does Mike Johnson?

991
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:21,960
Speaker 1: You know, most speakers have sort of you know, former

992
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 1: staffers that become players on K Street and it's you know,

993
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 1: there might be some people listening to this going good.

994
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 2: God, is this how it works? Yes, this is exactly

995
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:32,480
Speaker 2: how it works, folks.

996
00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 1: Mike Johnson does he have a is there a is

997
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: does he have a K Street go to?

998
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:42,080
Speaker 2: Yet?

999
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:44,360
Speaker 1: Is there people that sell themselves as, hey, we're the

1000
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:45,319
Speaker 1: Mike Johnson Firm.

1001
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 2: Well, look, I'm sure there are. There are folks who

1002
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:51,239
Speaker 2: worked for Speaker Johnson in the past or even as

1003
00:56:51,280 --> 00:56:54,880
Speaker 2: speaker and have rolled out now back downtown. Mister Miller

1004
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:58,880
Speaker 2: did an effective job kind of transitioning over. There's not

1005
00:56:59,000 --> 00:57:03,279
Speaker 2: so much of a of a Johnson diaspora yet, just

1006
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 2: because he's kind of been newer and it's and it's

1007
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:08,160
Speaker 2: still still in the Trump era. But look, at the

1008
00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:12,200
Speaker 2: end of the day, it's I think often people unfairly

1009
00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 2: suggest somehow that's unique to lobbying. I mean, how many

1010
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 2: media guys do you know who go into pr firms. Why,

1011
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:19,800
Speaker 2: because they know how it works on the other side,

1012
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:23,520
Speaker 2: because they've developed relationships of trust. They understand. Hey, if

1013
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 2: you want to talk to Chuck Todd at NBC, like,

1014
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:29,800
Speaker 2: what what are the things that resonate with him? How

1015
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 2: does he think? You know? In the same way that

1016
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 2: lots of the regulator types end up going to law firms,

1017
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 2: it's you know who flies. You're in my United Airlines

1018
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 2: flight to the West Coast, probably an ex air Force pilot.

1019
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 2: Experience matters, and it does on K Street, just like

1020
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:48,920
Speaker 2: it does in every other walk of life.

1021
00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:51,960
Speaker 1: What you do well is trend spot and we've got

1022
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 1: some interesting trends that I want to dig into some

1023
00:57:55,240 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 1: of them. Actually, by the time this airs, I'll have

1024
00:57:57,760 --> 00:57:59,840
Speaker 1: put out a substect in the focus of my weekly

1025
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 1: and mine this week is is sort of on. It's

1026
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:07,360
Speaker 1: picking up on yet again, more global instability. We've seen

1027
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 1: what happened in Japan, We've seen what happened in France,

1028
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:13,960
Speaker 1: and I guess I put it all back at bregsit

1029
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 1: right that breaks. It was the shot heard around the

1030
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 1: world that breaks. It was the moment. And I'm curious

1031
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 1: if you agree with this statement, as I've made it

1032
00:58:23,520 --> 00:58:24,040
Speaker 1: and it's ok.

1033
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 2: I bring you on here to.

1034
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 1: Disagree smartly trust me, well, you know, smartly kidding, which

1035
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 1: is it's proud. David Cameron probably made the most catastrophic

1036
00:58:38,240 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 1: era of a modern leader that didn't have to do

1037
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 1: with war in the last fifty years.

1038
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 2: So I tend to see bregsit along with Trump as

1039
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:53,120
Speaker 2: actually downstream. And to me, the upstream is the great

1040
00:58:53,120 --> 00:58:56,919
Speaker 2: financial collapse. And to me still to you goes back

1041
00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 2: to nine. I go back to that when all of

1042
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 2: a sudden, it's like, oh wow, you know, the elites,

1043
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 2: the experts, just like with the post nine to eleven

1044
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:09,760
Speaker 2: in Iraq War. Okay, we thought they had figured it

1045
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 2: all out because the first Iraq War went pretty well

1046
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 2: for the United States. But it's not going so well

1047
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 2: this time. So we no longer have unlimited confidence in

1048
00:59:17,200 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 2: war and peace on those guys. Suddenly we have you know,

1049
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 2: we thought that the regulators were keeping an eye on things,

1050
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:26,120
Speaker 2: but all of a sudden that were nearly going to

1051
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 2: a great depression and we have to bail out Wall Street,

1052
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 2: but we're not taking care of people that to me,

1053
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 2: you saw populism kind of cut in both directions. You

1054
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 2: had the Occupy movement get born, and you had the

1055
00:59:39,400 --> 00:59:42,320
Speaker 2: Tea Party movement get more born. Now you and I

1056
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 2: know all of those are You could argue you go

1057
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 2: back to Ross Perrot, and you could go to Pat

1058
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:49,919
Speaker 2: Buchanan and Howard Dean. But to me, the global event

1059
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:53,920
Speaker 2: in the twenty first century that really began the major

1060
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:58,120
Speaker 2: break in people's confidence with the rules and the parties

1061
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:03,400
Speaker 2: and the systems, including leading to the populism that said

1062
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 2: let's break up Brexit was GFC.

1063
01:00:18,440 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 1: Look, I think that's a that's a compelling case. And

1064
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 1: what you're arguing then is so at Cameron didn't have

1065
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:28,840
Speaker 1: to make the referendum, right, I mean had he had

1066
01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:31,920
Speaker 1: he not done the referendum, then we just postponed the

1067
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 1: break you know that the that the that the that

1068
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 1: the opportunity for the revolt would have come somewhere else.

1069
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:44,760
Speaker 2: And whether it would have been technically as a Brexit

1070
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 2: or not. We're seeing populism, and we've been seeing populism

1071
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 2: for the last fifteen years all around the world. Rising.

1072
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:57,960
Speaker 2: People don't trust the parties, the institutions, the establishment. They

1073
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:01,400
Speaker 2: don't think that the institute utional players have their back.

1074
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:05,200
Speaker 2: They think the institutional players are self dealing. Free markets, Well,

1075
01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 2: who's that help? Free trade, Well, who's that help? I

1076
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:10,040
Speaker 2: used to believe and I still tend to believe it

1077
01:01:10,160 --> 01:01:14,000
Speaker 2: ultimately helps more people. But the winner circles were getting smaller.

1078
01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:18,280
Speaker 2: And if free trade benefits everybody, but you really concentrate

1079
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:23,000
Speaker 2: the winners, but you then socialize the losers, as we

1080
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:26,400
Speaker 2: saw after GFC, you get populism. You know.

1081
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:31,919
Speaker 1: It's I feel like we don't fully appreciate how good

1082
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:35,080
Speaker 1: global free trade has been, and I think then we're

1083
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 1: going to realize what we've lost in the next year.

1084
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 2: You know.

1085
01:01:39,360 --> 01:01:41,320
Speaker 1: Sometimes it's as simple as you're not going to be

1086
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 1: able to get a peach anytime you want it, right,

1087
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 1: You're not gonna be able to get certain fruit and

1088
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:48,560
Speaker 1: vegetables anytime you want it. And you know, when we

1089
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:50,960
Speaker 1: were kids, there were certain things you just didn't get

1090
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:54,480
Speaker 1: certain times a year at the grocery store because there's

1091
01:01:54,520 --> 01:01:56,480
Speaker 1: no way in that time of year, right, there's no

1092
01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:57,160
Speaker 1: way they could get it.

1093
01:01:57,200 --> 01:01:57,439
Speaker 2: There.

1094
01:01:57,600 --> 01:02:00,520
Speaker 1: With global free trade and with the speed of travel

1095
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 1: and all of those things, we don't realize how lucky

1096
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 1: we've gotten it. It's sort of like I feel this

1097
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 1: way about the vaccine movement, the anti vaxx movement, which

1098
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:16,960
Speaker 1: is we've lost the people that there's a lost memory

1099
01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 1: of what quarantines were. Like, you know, my dad would

1100
01:02:20,200 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 1: tell me stories. He was one of these kids that

1101
01:02:22,720 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 1: got everything, the measles and the mumps, so his house

1102
01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:29,160
Speaker 1: was always they were always quarantined, and like that was

1103
01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 1: just a that happened in communities all over the So

1104
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:36,000
Speaker 1: it is also why there was such a eighty twenty

1105
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 1: and I still think it's an eighty twenty issue on vacs,

1106
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 1: but it is our long term memory. We don't we

1107
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:46,480
Speaker 1: forget what we didn't have. And you know, I hate

1108
01:02:46,520 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 1: sounding like the old man, you don't realize how good

1109
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 1: you have it now. But I really think when it

1110
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:55,120
Speaker 1: comes to access to just whether it's fruits and vegetables

1111
01:02:55,440 --> 01:03:02,640
Speaker 1: or cheap technology, that's what we've gotten and don't we

1112
01:03:02,680 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 1: don't fully appreciate it, or we didn't fully understand why

1113
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:06,080
Speaker 1: it was cheap.

1114
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 2: I think that's that's a riddle that I haven't solved. Well,

1115
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:12,160
Speaker 2: here's the door number three for you, because I agree

1116
01:03:12,160 --> 01:03:15,680
Speaker 2: with you. The benefits for consumers and producers of free trade.

1117
01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 2: The benefits of vaccines are overwhelming and obvious. At the

1118
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:24,680
Speaker 2: same time, I do tend to think that we tend

1119
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:31,440
Speaker 2: to also overseell virtues and underappreciate sort of the frictions

1120
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:35,040
Speaker 2: or the externalities of things. So free trade is great,

1121
01:03:35,120 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 2: But if you and I were from a town where

1122
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 2: the factory got moved to China or Mexico and nothing

1123
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 2: got moved in but a dollar store and fentanyl, we

1124
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:48,640
Speaker 2: wouldn't you know, and then the problem would happen. Chuck

1125
01:03:48,680 --> 01:03:50,280
Speaker 2: and you and I know this. We know these people.

1126
01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:52,760
Speaker 2: They were always dying to get on your show. Is

1127
01:03:52,800 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 2: they'd come on and they would cite some AEI study

1128
01:03:55,560 --> 01:03:59,800
Speaker 2: that is substantively correct about how the GDP grows. But

1129
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:02,760
Speaker 2: at the macro level, we're seeing a lot of winning.

1130
01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:05,080
Speaker 2: At the micro level, there's a lot of losing. And

1131
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:07,320
Speaker 2: people ignored those folks and told them they just didn't

1132
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:12,439
Speaker 2: understand economics, even on hesitant vaccine, because I tend to think,

1133
01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:16,040
Speaker 2: you know, vaccines are so overwhelmingly powerful, but in a

1134
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:19,840
Speaker 2: lot of ways. Read Marty McCarey, the new head of

1135
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 2: the FDA's book called Blind Spots. It's a wonderful book.

1136
01:04:23,200 --> 01:04:25,480
Speaker 2: A year or two ago. He's not a magahead. He's

1137
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:29,120
Speaker 2: a legit doctor, But he points out that the health

1138
01:04:29,200 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 2: establishment routinely will overseell like, for example, the way to

1139
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:36,640
Speaker 2: avoid allergies is total abstinence from peanuts. We did that

1140
01:04:36,680 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 2: in the UK, did that, and here you need an

1141
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:40,400
Speaker 2: epipan and the rest of the world you don't why

1142
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:45,960
Speaker 2: because that was the exact wrong advice. We over prescribed antibiotics.

1143
01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:49,320
Speaker 2: A whole generation of women got screwed out of really

1144
01:04:49,400 --> 01:04:55,520
Speaker 2: important hormone replacement therapy because of one wrong or overread study.

1145
01:04:55,560 --> 01:04:59,280
Speaker 2: But what happens is if you question, hey, are we

1146
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:02,240
Speaker 2: sure we saw that with the pandemic? Are we sure

1147
01:05:02,320 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 2: there aren't a lot of false positives? Maybe it's not

1148
01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 2: as deadly as as some of the people in the

1149
01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:09,280
Speaker 2: news are saying. Those people suddenly were told, well, you

1150
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:13,680
Speaker 2: don't believe in science. And we so vilify our opponents

1151
01:05:13,920 --> 01:05:17,280
Speaker 2: who often are asking very important and very legitimate questions,

1152
01:05:17,640 --> 01:05:20,200
Speaker 2: and we so want things to be one hundred percent right,

1153
01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:24,000
Speaker 2: that we've lost a tolerance and a space for the

1154
01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:28,320
Speaker 2: fact that things can be overwhelmingly good but not universally good.

1155
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:31,400
Speaker 2: And if we don't deal with the things that aren't

1156
01:05:31,440 --> 01:05:34,520
Speaker 2: great about it, we're going to grow those who are

1157
01:05:34,560 --> 01:05:36,720
Speaker 2: skeptical of us and of our institutions.

1158
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:39,160
Speaker 1: What do you make that nobody's gotten this right? You know,

1159
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:42,080
Speaker 1: it's not just our country. There's a lot of successful

1160
01:05:42,120 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 1: Western countries that have just not gotten this right either

1161
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:48,560
Speaker 1: not able to help those that have been displaced. Like,

1162
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:53,840
Speaker 1: nobody seems to have gotten this right. Well, you mean trade,

1163
01:05:54,840 --> 01:05:55,880
Speaker 1: let's start with trade.

1164
01:05:56,120 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so there again, it's it's nobody's got it perfect.

1165
01:06:00,920 --> 01:06:03,320
Speaker 2: I think. You know, look at Singapore, that's a tiny

1166
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:05,960
Speaker 2: little island with no natural resources.

1167
01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 1: That islands are different to me, island mentalities like you know,

1168
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:13,480
Speaker 1: Australia and New Zealand. I mean, when you're in Singapore,

1169
01:06:13,640 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 1: you know whether it's big island or small island.

1170
01:06:15,600 --> 01:06:16,000
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1171
01:06:16,080 --> 01:06:20,480
Speaker 1: I I island the island mentality. You don't live on

1172
01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:23,600
Speaker 1: an island if you're not willing to people that live

1173
01:06:23,640 --> 01:06:27,400
Speaker 1: on some sort of island nation understand that they're kind

1174
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:30,720
Speaker 1: of in this together. That's always been my sense that

1175
01:06:30,760 --> 01:06:32,080
Speaker 1: there's a slight difference.

1176
01:06:32,200 --> 01:06:36,800
Speaker 2: But yeah, I guess I'm not sure I'm going to

1177
01:06:36,880 --> 01:06:38,880
Speaker 2: agree totally. My mind's starting to go to, like, how

1178
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:41,240
Speaker 2: but Japan and you know, how about creeks and I

1179
01:06:41,240 --> 01:06:42,080
Speaker 2: don't know enoughing.

1180
01:06:41,920 --> 01:06:43,919
Speaker 1: About how big of a country do you get before

1181
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:46,280
Speaker 1: it's not an island mentality, which would be Australia, for instance,

1182
01:06:46,320 --> 01:06:48,440
Speaker 1: but anyway geographically meaning but anyway go ahead.

1183
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:53,320
Speaker 2: So I guess I nobody's gotten it perfect overall. I mean,

1184
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 2: you know, here's kind of a thought experiment. Go find

1185
01:06:56,040 --> 01:06:59,040
Speaker 2: anybody who hates trade or whatever and say, if I'm

1186
01:06:59,040 --> 01:07:02,160
Speaker 2: going to have you're you're going to be reborn fifty

1187
01:07:02,240 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 2: years ago, one hundred years ago. I'm not going to

1188
01:07:05,080 --> 01:07:07,000
Speaker 2: tell you whether you're a man or woman, what race,

1189
01:07:07,080 --> 01:07:10,320
Speaker 2: or whatever. I can't think of anybody on the planet

1190
01:07:10,320 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 2: who wouldn't want to be reborn today. I'd like to

1191
01:07:14,160 --> 01:07:17,120
Speaker 2: think that everybody would like to be re start again

1192
01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:20,240
Speaker 2: right here in the United States. I do worry sometimes,

1193
01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:22,960
Speaker 2: Chuck that while fifty years ago, I think anybody on

1194
01:07:23,000 --> 01:07:25,920
Speaker 2: the planet would say, well, I would love to be there.

1195
01:07:26,360 --> 01:07:29,720
Speaker 2: You know, some of our internal divisions, some of the nastiness,

1196
01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:32,640
Speaker 2: some of our inability to get out of our own

1197
01:07:32,680 --> 01:07:35,040
Speaker 2: way to try to find the common ground that is

1198
01:07:35,080 --> 01:07:39,760
Speaker 2: required under the constitution created by the Founders to solve problems.

1199
01:07:39,320 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 2: It's it's feeling a little frustrating but then again, go

1200
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:45,480
Speaker 2: back to read history. It's recency biased, chuck, go but

1201
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 2: you want to live in the seventies, knock yourself out, buddy.

1202
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 2: You think it was better, then, no way. The economy

1203
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,080
Speaker 2: was rougher than we were going through stagflation. God willing,

1204
01:07:54,120 --> 01:07:57,920
Speaker 2: we're not about to go through that again. That looks

1205
01:07:57,920 --> 01:08:01,560
Speaker 2: a little troublesome. Well, let's keep our figures crossed on

1206
01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:04,840
Speaker 2: that one. But you know, the threat of nuclear war

1207
01:08:04,880 --> 01:08:07,480
Speaker 2: with the Soviet Union, the murder of George Floyd was scary.

1208
01:08:07,560 --> 01:08:10,040
Speaker 2: Read about the murder of doctor King and Bobby Kennedy.

1209
01:08:11,120 --> 01:08:15,120
Speaker 2: Vietnam's more divisive than anything we're dealing with today, you know.

1210
01:08:15,120 --> 01:08:17,760
Speaker 2: And even like you know, for gay and lesbian Americans,

1211
01:08:18,680 --> 01:08:21,880
Speaker 2: the anti trans stuff I find nasty and I find

1212
01:08:22,040 --> 01:08:26,559
Speaker 2: just unnecessarily harsh and cruel. But fifty years ago, we

1213
01:08:26,560 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 2: were debating the right to marry someone you love. There

1214
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:34,320
Speaker 2: were some states that made it illegal to be gay

1215
01:08:34,479 --> 01:08:37,599
Speaker 2: or lesbian, and thank god, we're only debating now who

1216
01:08:37,600 --> 01:08:40,600
Speaker 2: gets to play in which sports and use which bathrooms.

1217
01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:42,640
Speaker 2: And it's you know, it's not where I want it

1218
01:08:42,640 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 2: to be, and it's not where you want it to be.

1219
01:08:43,960 --> 01:08:46,639
Speaker 2: But it's a lot better than where it was. Let's

1220
01:08:46,640 --> 01:08:48,080
Speaker 2: talk about sort of a few things.

1221
01:08:48,080 --> 01:08:50,200
Speaker 1: Because you're really good, I have a sense that you're

1222
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:53,720
Speaker 1: going to be read how soon before I get one

1223
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:56,080
Speaker 1: of your risk you know, the six charts on the

1224
01:08:56,160 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 1: various risks that are out there, because I feel like

1225
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:01,479
Speaker 1: we're getting close to that, and so let's talk about

1226
01:09:01,840 --> 01:09:06,360
Speaker 1: recession risks. It feels like there's a lot of flashing

1227
01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:08,320
Speaker 1: yellow lights. I'm not going to say there's a flashing

1228
01:09:08,360 --> 01:09:10,599
Speaker 1: red light anywhere yet, but there's a lot of flashing

1229
01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:13,559
Speaker 1: yellow lights. Turns out, for instance, let's talk about this

1230
01:09:14,720 --> 01:09:18,160
Speaker 1: the correction of the jobs numbers. First, it turns out

1231
01:09:18,200 --> 01:09:21,559
Speaker 1: the vibes were more accurate than the data in twenty

1232
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:25,400
Speaker 1: twenty four. And this is a sense always trust the public.

1233
01:09:26,400 --> 01:09:29,240
Speaker 1: The perception of the economy is what the economy is.

1234
01:09:29,960 --> 01:09:36,560
Speaker 1: Because perception, especially in the economy, is reality.

1235
01:09:37,479 --> 01:09:40,880
Speaker 2: Well, that's the wisdom of the crowd. Ultimately, I mean,

1236
01:09:40,920 --> 01:09:46,360
Speaker 2: the the market is the ultimate weighing in of everything

1237
01:09:46,400 --> 01:09:50,320
Speaker 2: and everyone, and the hype, the hype cycle people and

1238
01:09:50,360 --> 01:09:52,320
Speaker 2: the people who are just looking for good copy and

1239
01:09:52,400 --> 01:09:56,360
Speaker 2: all get ultimately blended into the giant blender that is

1240
01:09:56,400 --> 01:09:58,800
Speaker 2: the market. You know, you mentioned when am I going

1241
01:09:58,840 --> 01:10:01,280
Speaker 2: to do one old risks. I actually have my list

1242
01:10:01,880 --> 01:10:04,719
Speaker 2: and maybe two weeks ago, and I found it such

1243
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 2: a list, such a doom or read that I threw

1244
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:10,160
Speaker 2: it aside and I decided because it was towards the

1245
01:10:10,240 --> 01:10:14,040
Speaker 2: end of the August recess and I instead just wanted

1246
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:19,720
Speaker 2: to do one on sort of I call it no regrets,

1247
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:22,920
Speaker 2: But what are things people regret? Because if you.

1248
01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:24,840
Speaker 1: Know what you're going to regret, I like you no

1249
01:10:24,920 --> 01:10:27,120
Speaker 1: regrets one right by age?

1250
01:10:27,320 --> 01:10:27,680
Speaker 2: You know what?

1251
01:10:27,880 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 1: Like you quoted Charlie Munger who said, I want to

1252
01:10:31,520 --> 01:10:33,120
Speaker 1: know where I'm going to die so I can avoid

1253
01:10:33,160 --> 01:10:34,760
Speaker 1: it for the location or whatever.

1254
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:38,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. So so in that regard, if you know what

1255
01:10:38,080 --> 01:10:41,160
Speaker 2: you're going to regret, twenty years from now, we'll start

1256
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:43,200
Speaker 2: doing the things so that you don't end up in

1257
01:10:43,240 --> 01:10:45,639
Speaker 2: the position where you have to regret it. On the economy,

1258
01:10:45,640 --> 01:10:48,840
Speaker 2: it's a great question. I've successfully called ten of the

1259
01:10:48,880 --> 01:10:52,760
Speaker 2: last two recessions. I definitely don't know. I have had

1260
01:10:52,800 --> 01:10:57,960
Speaker 2: success investing every month into an index fund, the well

1261
01:10:58,000 --> 01:11:01,760
Speaker 2: Diversified s and P five hundred index fund, and doing

1262
01:11:01,800 --> 01:11:04,479
Speaker 2: it every single month since I got married. So that's

1263
01:11:04,520 --> 01:11:07,960
Speaker 2: a long time. Every other investment has not been as

1264
01:11:07,960 --> 01:11:11,920
Speaker 2: successful as that. Sometimes I guess right, sometimes I guess wrong,

1265
01:11:12,000 --> 01:11:15,080
Speaker 2: but it's really hard to know. You could see a

1266
01:11:15,120 --> 01:11:18,200
Speaker 2: scenario where the tariffs are slowing things down and the

1267
01:11:18,760 --> 01:11:23,719
Speaker 2: immigration is driving up prices, and you know, and boy,

1268
01:11:23,760 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 2: there's plenty of folks, whether they're rooting against the president

1269
01:11:27,160 --> 01:11:30,400
Speaker 2: or they're always rooting against a president, there's just a

1270
01:11:30,439 --> 01:11:33,799
Speaker 2: lot of you know, I read a great sociological study.

1271
01:11:34,040 --> 01:11:39,599
Speaker 2: People who propose a doom are seen as smarter and

1272
01:11:39,640 --> 01:11:42,840
Speaker 2: more likely to be read than people who are kind

1273
01:11:42,840 --> 01:11:44,080
Speaker 2: of more calm.

1274
01:11:43,880 --> 01:11:45,880
Speaker 1: And whether whether the facts back them up or.

1275
01:11:45,840 --> 01:11:50,720
Speaker 2: Not, it's right. And the some the evolution type people say,

1276
01:11:50,720 --> 01:11:54,640
Speaker 2: well that the evolutionary thinker people, by the way, I

1277
01:11:54,680 --> 01:11:57,400
Speaker 2: believe in evolution. For the people who point to evolutionary

1278
01:11:57,920 --> 01:12:02,120
Speaker 2: theories say humans are wired to look for danger because

1279
01:12:02,240 --> 01:12:05,120
Speaker 2: if you don't pay attention to lion eats, you and

1280
01:12:05,160 --> 01:12:09,680
Speaker 2: you're less likely to react as viscerally to something that

1281
01:12:09,720 --> 01:12:12,400
Speaker 2: doesn't seem threatening. And so, as you know, in the

1282
01:12:12,439 --> 01:12:15,120
Speaker 2: media business, you need people to watch, need people listening to,

1283
01:12:15,120 --> 01:12:17,880
Speaker 2: people to click, and if you give them kind of hey,

1284
01:12:17,920 --> 01:12:20,439
Speaker 2: things are probably fine. Well I'm not going to read

1285
01:12:20,479 --> 01:12:22,840
Speaker 2: that story. If you are three things you need to

1286
01:12:22,880 --> 01:12:25,800
Speaker 2: do before the next stagflation, you're totally going to click

1287
01:12:25,840 --> 01:12:27,639
Speaker 2: on that because it you know, it's a risk.

1288
01:12:28,280 --> 01:12:32,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, another plane lands safely at National News at eleven. Right,

1289
01:12:32,680 --> 01:12:34,960
Speaker 1: you know it's not something that's ever in the uh,

1290
01:12:35,080 --> 01:12:37,720
Speaker 1: that's ever ever in the promo. But look, you you

1291
01:12:38,200 --> 01:12:40,080
Speaker 1: are looking at this for a living. I mean, it

1292
01:12:40,120 --> 01:12:47,000
Speaker 1: does feel as if, well, here's the ultimate uncertainty, what

1293
01:12:47,080 --> 01:12:50,880
Speaker 1: are the future of the tariffs? I assume that if

1294
01:12:50,920 --> 01:12:57,200
Speaker 1: he loses in court, a Republican Congress gives him the

1295
01:12:57,600 --> 01:13:00,439
Speaker 1: whatever whatever. If he does lose at the Supreme Court,

1296
01:13:01,720 --> 01:13:05,000
Speaker 1: Roberts's rationale is going to be that, you know, Congress

1297
01:13:05,000 --> 01:13:08,120
Speaker 1: has to do this, which means if Congress essentially gives

1298
01:13:08,200 --> 01:13:10,679
Speaker 1: him the authority to do this, then he can sort

1299
01:13:10,680 --> 01:13:13,599
Speaker 1: of keep these in place. Is that the most likely

1300
01:13:13,640 --> 01:13:17,680
Speaker 1: way where we're headed in your mind? You know, assuming

1301
01:13:18,400 --> 01:13:21,800
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court upholds all these other low court ruling

1302
01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:23,240
Speaker 1: on the legality.

1303
01:13:22,800 --> 01:13:25,519
Speaker 2: Of the tariffs, Well, I think it's even easier than that, Chuck,

1304
01:13:26,560 --> 01:13:31,519
Speaker 2: there's lots IEPA was never used for tariffs before. There

1305
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:35,559
Speaker 2: is a Congress has for decades and decades been passing

1306
01:13:35,640 --> 01:13:41,400
Speaker 2: legislation giving tariff and trade regulatory authorities to the executive branch.

1307
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:44,240
Speaker 2: There's section two thirty two, There's section three oh one.

1308
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:46,400
Speaker 2: Those are the ones Trump used in his first term.

1309
01:13:46,640 --> 01:13:48,840
Speaker 2: There's section one twenty two and three thirty eight and

1310
01:13:48,880 --> 01:13:52,240
Speaker 2: two oh one, like it's all there. What he loved

1311
01:13:52,280 --> 01:13:55,800
Speaker 2: about IEPA was it didn't require doing work, It didn't

1312
01:13:55,880 --> 01:13:59,599
Speaker 2: require a process. You could just say, I hereby claims

1313
01:13:59,640 --> 01:14:02,400
Speaker 2: there's an emergency, and here's what we're going to do

1314
01:14:02,479 --> 01:14:05,519
Speaker 2: in response to it. So my macro takeaway is there

1315
01:14:05,560 --> 01:14:09,559
Speaker 2: will be tariffs. Whether Congress does anything or not doesn't matter.

1316
01:14:09,880 --> 01:14:12,320
Speaker 2: He's got the president has all the tools, and he's

1317
01:14:12,320 --> 01:14:15,559
Speaker 2: got all the conviction. Tariffs are his ginsu knife. They

1318
01:14:15,560 --> 01:14:18,720
Speaker 2: are the solution to every problem. If you want to

1319
01:14:18,800 --> 01:14:22,439
Speaker 2: raise revenue because deficits are high, tariffs raise revenue. If

1320
01:14:22,479 --> 01:14:25,479
Speaker 2: you want to reindustrialized manufacturing because we're over dependent on

1321
01:14:25,560 --> 01:14:28,320
Speaker 2: Chinese manufacturing, that's what he says tariffs will do. They're

1322
01:14:28,320 --> 01:14:31,280
Speaker 2: getting industrial investment, they're getting investment in the Midwest, they're

1323
01:14:31,280 --> 01:14:33,680
Speaker 2: helping they got in Mexico to get some religion on

1324
01:14:33,760 --> 01:14:36,680
Speaker 2: fentanyl to some degree, and on the southern border to

1325
01:14:36,760 --> 01:14:42,080
Speaker 2: a significant degree. Brazil's prosecuting his boy Bolsonaro, and he's like,

1326
01:14:42,080 --> 01:14:44,639
Speaker 2: we're going to hit those guys with tariffs. He threatened

1327
01:14:44,720 --> 01:14:48,960
Speaker 2: putin with more tariffs, and India for that matter too.

1328
01:14:49,120 --> 01:14:52,599
Speaker 2: Vis A VI purchases a secondary oil. But he hasn't

1329
01:14:52,880 --> 01:14:55,439
Speaker 2: ultimately pulled the trigger on that. He's got all the

1330
01:14:55,479 --> 01:14:58,800
Speaker 2: authorities he needs, and regardless of what the Supreme Court

1331
01:14:58,840 --> 01:15:03,040
Speaker 2: says about this one statute he's been using, he'll he'll

1332
01:15:03,080 --> 01:15:05,040
Speaker 2: just pivot and he'll shift if he's.

1333
01:15:04,880 --> 01:15:07,599
Speaker 1: Got what you're saying is there are other ways he

1334
01:15:07,600 --> 01:15:12,400
Speaker 1: can essentially pull a lever and essentially then okay, now

1335
01:15:12,439 --> 01:15:16,000
Speaker 1: sue me, sue me over using this Emergency Act essentially.

1336
01:15:16,560 --> 01:15:20,280
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, but he doesn't. There are several trade statutes

1337
01:15:20,360 --> 01:15:24,080
Speaker 2: where the lawsuits have happened. They just require the executive

1338
01:15:24,120 --> 01:15:26,479
Speaker 2: branch to do a little bit more work in advance.

1339
01:15:27,040 --> 01:15:29,720
Speaker 2: Trump liked the fact that by the end of Q one,

1340
01:15:29,880 --> 01:15:34,200
Speaker 2: he could, you know, liberation Day everywhere. He thought it

1341
01:15:34,240 --> 01:15:36,920
Speaker 2: was a shortcut and it's you know, we'll see what

1342
01:15:36,960 --> 01:15:40,240
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court says. Remember too, Chuck, Remember President Biden

1343
01:15:40,400 --> 01:15:43,439
Speaker 2: was going to relieve a half a trillion dollars of

1344
01:15:43,439 --> 01:15:47,400
Speaker 2: student debt based upon some emergency powers relating to COVID.

1345
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:50,160
Speaker 2: Now the court said, no, well, you got to take

1346
01:15:50,200 --> 01:15:52,880
Speaker 2: your mind all the way back. This is ancient history

1347
01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:55,960
Speaker 2: when Republicans believe that the power of the purse resided

1348
01:15:56,000 --> 01:16:00,599
Speaker 2: with Congress. So last year and by law, he said,

1349
01:16:00,640 --> 01:16:01,960
Speaker 2: you don't think I could do it, sue me. They

1350
01:16:01,960 --> 01:16:04,040
Speaker 2: sued him. He lost. Biden didn't have the power to

1351
01:16:04,080 --> 01:16:07,640
Speaker 2: do it. But after that day he still forgave one

1352
01:16:07,680 --> 01:16:11,000
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty four billion dollars of student debt. How

1353
01:16:11,360 --> 01:16:14,160
Speaker 2: other laws, you know, a piecemeal here and there. He

1354
01:16:14,200 --> 01:16:17,400
Speaker 2: couldn't do the one big, massive debt relief that he

1355
01:16:17,439 --> 01:16:21,200
Speaker 2: had kind of had structured. I think when Trump loses

1356
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:23,040
Speaker 2: in court, you know, if he loses because he was

1357
01:16:23,080 --> 01:16:25,200
Speaker 2: trying to use a law from seventeen ninety eight, he'll

1358
01:16:25,240 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 2: just use a different law. His team will continue to

1359
01:16:28,000 --> 01:16:31,560
Speaker 2: flex and pivot. The one where I see least ability

1360
01:16:31,600 --> 01:16:36,280
Speaker 2: to move is impellment. And maybe these pocket recisions that

1361
01:16:36,320 --> 01:16:39,200
Speaker 2: I think are are are well they have been launched

1362
01:16:39,520 --> 01:16:42,479
Speaker 2: that could lead to a shutdown. I'm assuming that law

1363
01:16:42,560 --> 01:16:44,760
Speaker 2: is so black and white that they're going to say

1364
01:16:44,760 --> 01:16:48,760
Speaker 2: the administration can't refuse to spend because the law that

1365
01:16:48,800 --> 01:16:51,720
Speaker 2: says the president's not allowed to refuse to spend. And

1366
01:16:51,800 --> 01:16:53,760
Speaker 2: I don't know of a different law that they can

1367
01:16:53,880 --> 01:16:58,599
Speaker 2: use to impound.

1368
01:16:56,640 --> 01:16:59,200
Speaker 1: I can't remember the last time we had a Democratic

1369
01:16:59,320 --> 01:17:04,479
Speaker 1: minority sort of leaning into the idea of forcing a shutdown,

1370
01:17:06,840 --> 01:17:07,160
Speaker 1: can you?

1371
01:17:07,320 --> 01:17:12,599
Speaker 2: Uh? Well, I mean, so there was a shutdown recall

1372
01:17:12,840 --> 01:17:15,439
Speaker 2: at after the midterms in twenty eighteen.

1373
01:17:15,479 --> 01:17:17,680
Speaker 1: Trump, for sure, but he was fighting with his own

1374
01:17:17,720 --> 01:17:18,400
Speaker 1: party over it.

1375
01:17:18,400 --> 01:17:20,600
Speaker 2: It was his own party. It wasn't the test he was.

1376
01:17:21,240 --> 01:17:23,800
Speaker 2: But the Dems were, certainly, and they shouldn't have been,

1377
01:17:23,880 --> 01:17:25,720
Speaker 2: but they weren't there looking to bail him out.

1378
01:17:26,000 --> 01:17:28,720
Speaker 1: No, I mean obviously with both, you know, but that

1379
01:17:28,880 --> 01:17:30,799
Speaker 1: was that he couldn't agree with his own party.

1380
01:17:31,000 --> 01:17:33,080
Speaker 2: Well, so what's fascinating to me on this one is

1381
01:17:34,800 --> 01:17:37,799
Speaker 2: dam's first believe in government. Dems don't want the government

1382
01:17:37,840 --> 01:17:40,640
Speaker 2: to be shut down. They're unhappy that they cut a

1383
01:17:40,720 --> 01:17:44,160
Speaker 2: deal with the Republicans, and then through impellment, the administration says, yeah,

1384
01:17:44,160 --> 01:17:46,240
Speaker 2: we're not going to follow that deal. So if I'm

1385
01:17:46,240 --> 01:17:48,519
Speaker 2: a Democrat, why would I ever cut a deal? Oh?

1386
01:17:49,040 --> 01:17:50,680
Speaker 1: I don't see any incentive for them to cut a

1387
01:17:50,720 --> 01:17:53,320
Speaker 1: deal with these guys considering because of recisions.

1388
01:17:53,479 --> 01:17:57,599
Speaker 2: Well, but here's the question. So if you don't cut

1389
01:17:57,640 --> 01:18:00,240
Speaker 2: a deal and they just you'll do a cr so

1390
01:18:00,280 --> 01:18:03,920
Speaker 2: you don't continue as spending as is, and Trump says,

1391
01:18:04,120 --> 01:18:07,320
Speaker 2: we've decided these are the non essential workers. And to

1392
01:18:07,360 --> 01:18:10,240
Speaker 2: the non essential workers, let me say here's what we suggest.

1393
01:18:10,560 --> 01:18:14,200
Speaker 2: Find a new job. The taxpayers shouldn't be paying people

1394
01:18:14,200 --> 01:18:16,800
Speaker 2: who are doing non essential work. Government should be a

1395
01:18:16,840 --> 01:18:21,040
Speaker 2: business of essentialism, and that's it. So if you don't

1396
01:18:21,040 --> 01:18:24,280
Speaker 2: do something essential, go find a job somewhere else that's

1397
01:18:24,360 --> 01:18:27,000
Speaker 2: essential to somebody else. And then Trump will say, and

1398
01:18:27,040 --> 01:18:29,760
Speaker 2: we're going to pay essential workers. We're going to pay

1399
01:18:29,760 --> 01:18:32,960
Speaker 2: the military, We're going to pay ice. You might say, well,

1400
01:18:33,040 --> 01:18:34,840
Speaker 2: you're not allowed to pay them. And that's the reason

1401
01:18:34,840 --> 01:18:37,360
Speaker 2: you're not allowed to pay them because in nineteen eighty

1402
01:18:37,680 --> 01:18:41,200
Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter's Attorney General Ben Siveletti said, if you pay,

1403
01:18:42,080 --> 01:18:45,920
Speaker 2: if you pay anyone during a shutdown, that would violate

1404
01:18:45,960 --> 01:18:48,440
Speaker 2: the Anti Impellment Act. Well, we know what the administration

1405
01:18:48,520 --> 01:18:52,120
Speaker 2: thinks of the Anti Impellment Act. So I think there's

1406
01:18:52,160 --> 01:18:54,080
Speaker 2: a little bit of a worry that if you're the

1407
01:18:54,080 --> 01:18:58,559
Speaker 2: Dems and you stand up. It's those two point zero

1408
01:18:58,640 --> 01:19:02,200
Speaker 2: They're like, great, we don't need to ever reopen fill

1409
01:19:02,200 --> 01:19:07,479
Speaker 2: in the blank hood or Department of Education. I get it.

1410
01:19:07,680 --> 01:19:11,240
Speaker 1: I know that was the worry in March. I wonder

1411
01:19:11,400 --> 01:19:13,519
Speaker 1: if that is as big of a worry this time,

1412
01:19:14,400 --> 01:19:17,200
Speaker 1: because they've just been just so routed, if you will,

1413
01:19:17,200 --> 01:19:19,080
Speaker 1: and so many and so many, you know, look at

1414
01:19:19,080 --> 01:19:21,200
Speaker 1: the re redistrict thing, look at.

1415
01:19:21,160 --> 01:19:24,080
Speaker 2: You know, on some of these other things with ice.

1416
01:19:24,160 --> 01:19:28,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't and that's do I think there

1417
01:19:28,280 --> 01:19:30,840
Speaker 1: are seven senators who will not want to do this.

1418
01:19:30,960 --> 01:19:33,559
Speaker 1: I do Eventually they may have the stomach for it

1419
01:19:33,560 --> 01:19:35,160
Speaker 1: for a week or two, but they won't have the

1420
01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:36,320
Speaker 1: stomach for it for more than that.

1421
01:19:36,800 --> 01:19:39,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, look as always. I mean what it would take

1422
01:19:39,320 --> 01:19:42,479
Speaker 2: is it'll take some small number of Republicans and frankly,

1423
01:19:42,560 --> 01:19:45,479
Speaker 2: you and I could identify them who would agree with

1424
01:19:45,520 --> 01:19:48,080
Speaker 2: the Democrats to cut a deal of no pocket recisions,

1425
01:19:48,800 --> 01:19:50,800
Speaker 2: that's thing rule. But that would be enough.

1426
01:19:52,080 --> 01:19:54,559
Speaker 1: And I think that in the Obamacare subsidies, which a

1427
01:19:54,560 --> 01:19:57,880
Speaker 1: bunch of Republicans secretly really actually went back. Now after

1428
01:19:57,920 --> 01:20:00,479
Speaker 1: the medicated I mean, the one big beautif bill has

1429
01:20:00,520 --> 01:20:01,639
Speaker 1: already done some damage.

1430
01:20:01,720 --> 01:20:04,960
Speaker 2: They don't want a second punch in the gut. Brizio says,

1431
01:20:05,000 --> 01:20:07,080
Speaker 2: that's the single biggest risk, as you know, to the

1432
01:20:07,160 --> 01:20:10,320
Speaker 2: Republicans holding the House. So there's a deal to be had,

1433
01:20:10,680 --> 01:20:15,519
Speaker 2: but the administration has to give permission otherwise how do

1434
01:20:15,560 --> 01:20:18,680
Speaker 2: we get it voted on. That's one reform, by the way,

1435
01:20:18,680 --> 01:20:21,280
Speaker 2: I'd love to have. I don't know that it's necessarily

1436
01:20:21,320 --> 01:20:24,680
Speaker 2: an Internet era and reform needed that. It's that the

1437
01:20:24,760 --> 01:20:27,040
Speaker 2: need for it is occasioned by the existence of the Internet,

1438
01:20:27,080 --> 01:20:29,640
Speaker 2: like some other things I was talking about. But in

1439
01:20:29,680 --> 01:20:33,400
Speaker 2: my opinion, things ought to get votes that you ought

1440
01:20:33,400 --> 01:20:36,000
Speaker 2: to be something that has the potential to get a

1441
01:20:36,040 --> 01:20:38,920
Speaker 2: majority vote. Ought to have an upward down you know,

1442
01:20:39,040 --> 01:20:42,720
Speaker 2: let's have a democratic process if you're allowed to vote no,

1443
01:20:43,439 --> 01:20:46,040
Speaker 2: but to not have to vote on something that, particularly

1444
01:20:46,080 --> 01:20:48,559
Speaker 2: if it's past the other chamber, for example, they ought

1445
01:20:48,600 --> 01:20:57,880
Speaker 2: to be required to vote on it.

1446
01:21:00,000 --> 01:21:02,200
Speaker 1: Mean, this is what drives me crazy. And tariffs, I

1447
01:21:02,240 --> 01:21:04,759
Speaker 1: want to see everybody. I want everybody on the record

1448
01:21:04,760 --> 01:21:07,080
Speaker 1: you're going to raise taxes on every consumer good we

1449
01:21:07,120 --> 01:21:08,200
Speaker 1: imported to this country.

1450
01:21:08,920 --> 01:21:10,200
Speaker 2: I want to see you vote on the record in

1451
01:21:10,280 --> 01:21:12,759
Speaker 2: this what's funny about that? Chuck, though, is the reason

1452
01:21:12,880 --> 01:21:16,080
Speaker 2: past congresses gave this authority to the administration. We know

1453
01:21:16,120 --> 01:21:19,679
Speaker 2: why they did, Yeah, go ahead to cut tariffs, because

1454
01:21:19,920 --> 01:21:23,639
Speaker 2: you know, there's so many narrower constituencies that a lot

1455
01:21:23,680 --> 01:21:26,559
Speaker 2: of these guys would kind of hope yes on the

1456
01:21:26,600 --> 01:21:28,240
Speaker 2: trade deal, would vote no No.

1457
01:21:28,439 --> 01:21:30,600
Speaker 1: This was the joke that the idea was, well, we

1458
01:21:30,640 --> 01:21:32,679
Speaker 1: gave it to the president because we figured the freest

1459
01:21:32,720 --> 01:21:35,760
Speaker 1: trader among all three branches of government would be the

1460
01:21:35,800 --> 01:21:39,360
Speaker 1: office of the Presidency. Oops, well that that was true

1461
01:21:39,400 --> 01:21:44,280
Speaker 1: until it wasn't right. Let's do you're so good at

1462
01:21:44,320 --> 01:21:49,800
Speaker 1: unintended consequences this rate of the factory in Georgia with

1463
01:21:49,880 --> 01:21:58,479
Speaker 1: the South Korean workers, and this feels like a a

1464
01:21:58,920 --> 01:22:03,400
Speaker 1: something that let's just say, an action happened before there

1465
01:22:03,439 --> 01:22:04,800
Speaker 1: was any thought behind it.

1466
01:22:05,400 --> 01:22:06,760
Speaker 2: This feels like this is going to do.

1467
01:22:07,000 --> 01:22:10,519
Speaker 1: We already have a South Korean government that's a mess

1468
01:22:10,600 --> 01:22:13,759
Speaker 1: right now. They have their own internal issues. They've speaking

1469
01:22:13,800 --> 01:22:18,479
Speaker 1: of instability in Western democracies. South Korea is right there

1470
01:22:18,520 --> 01:22:21,320
Speaker 1: with Japan and the UK, France, you know, all these

1471
01:22:21,400 --> 01:22:26,120
Speaker 1: countries that are suffering right now with sort of a

1472
01:22:26,160 --> 01:22:30,320
Speaker 1: form of polarization that we have. But what's the anttended

1473
01:22:30,320 --> 01:22:32,960
Speaker 1: consequence of that, because I look at this, here's here's

1474
01:22:32,960 --> 01:22:36,599
Speaker 1: the president going around begging for foreign companies to bring

1475
01:22:36,720 --> 01:22:40,559
Speaker 1: their manufacturing into the United States, and he'll lighten up

1476
01:22:40,560 --> 01:22:42,360
Speaker 1: on some of the tariffs, he'll lighten up on some

1477
01:22:42,400 --> 01:22:45,839
Speaker 1: of the on some of those things. And here Hyundai's

1478
01:22:45,880 --> 01:22:49,800
Speaker 1: doing that, and now you may get a rise of

1479
01:22:49,840 --> 01:22:53,719
Speaker 1: anti americanism in South Korea that could really harm us

1480
01:22:53,800 --> 01:22:56,160
Speaker 1: in ways we haven't fully appreciated.

1481
01:22:56,920 --> 01:22:59,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, what I think Vice President Vance would say

1482
01:23:00,160 --> 01:23:03,400
Speaker 2: is that, you know, it's not complicated. They want big

1483
01:23:03,439 --> 01:23:07,639
Speaker 2: investments in the United States where American workers are running

1484
01:23:07,680 --> 01:23:10,840
Speaker 2: the factor, are manning the machines, and that's you know,

1485
01:23:10,880 --> 01:23:12,600
Speaker 2: you don't have a lot of Americans work in the

1486
01:23:12,640 --> 01:23:16,840
Speaker 2: machines in Soul or in other countries around the world.

1487
01:23:16,880 --> 01:23:19,680
Speaker 2: That's their theory of the case. But everything's a trade off.

1488
01:23:19,720 --> 01:23:22,320
Speaker 2: To your point. The one the SUBSTCK I did this

1489
01:23:22,320 --> 01:23:24,640
Speaker 2: past weekend was taking a look at housing and construction.

1490
01:23:25,280 --> 01:23:28,400
Speaker 2: And you know, if we the best in the secretary

1491
01:23:28,400 --> 01:23:31,320
Speaker 2: best and said they may declare a housing emergency, Well

1492
01:23:31,320 --> 01:23:33,080
Speaker 2: what could they do? Well, if you really want to

1493
01:23:33,120 --> 01:23:35,320
Speaker 2: have more housing built, you could lower the tariffs on

1494
01:23:35,400 --> 01:23:37,680
Speaker 2: things you're importing which are making it more expensive to

1495
01:23:37,680 --> 01:23:43,360
Speaker 2: build homes. You could narrow your immigration enforcement because the

1496
01:23:43,400 --> 01:23:48,040
Speaker 2: construction workforce is, you know, is very significantly non US born,

1497
01:23:48,080 --> 01:23:51,120
Speaker 2: and you're driving up labor prices and you're making labor

1498
01:23:51,160 --> 01:23:55,160
Speaker 2: more scarce, you know. But there also was was a

1499
01:23:55,160 --> 01:23:57,840
Speaker 2: desire to secure the southern border, which they did. And

1500
01:23:57,920 --> 01:24:00,680
Speaker 2: now there's a desire because you can't pay this to

1501
01:24:01,479 --> 01:24:04,360
Speaker 2: have some amount of the millions of people who came

1502
01:24:04,400 --> 01:24:09,040
Speaker 2: here inconsistent with laws be sent back somewhere. But what

1503
01:24:09,160 --> 01:24:11,439
Speaker 2: I keep thinking about when I look at the president

1504
01:24:12,320 --> 01:24:16,240
Speaker 2: is the why versus the how. There's a lot of

1505
01:24:16,280 --> 01:24:19,439
Speaker 2: support for a lot of what why Trump's doing things.

1506
01:24:20,160 --> 01:24:21,040
Speaker 2: I've always said that.

1507
01:24:21,080 --> 01:24:23,840
Speaker 1: I've always said that, and this is the danger the

1508
01:24:23,880 --> 01:24:27,960
Speaker 1: Democrats have. They see the unpopularity of sending the National

1509
01:24:27,960 --> 01:24:30,040
Speaker 1: Guard into the cities and say, aha, we can fight

1510
01:24:30,120 --> 01:24:32,640
Speaker 1: them on this, and it's like no, no, no, the

1511
01:24:32,760 --> 01:24:37,080
Speaker 1: tactics they don't like the end goal they still want.

1512
01:24:38,920 --> 01:24:42,600
Speaker 2: You're one hundred percent right on trade, you know, majorities

1513
01:24:42,680 --> 01:24:46,000
Speaker 2: say that we shouldn't be running such massive trade deficits

1514
01:24:46,040 --> 01:24:50,200
Speaker 2: every year, but tariffs are a majority unpopular. You see

1515
01:24:50,240 --> 01:24:52,519
Speaker 2: the same thing in crime. You see the same thing

1516
01:24:52,560 --> 01:24:57,680
Speaker 2: with you know, deportation of undocumented people. You see the

1517
01:24:57,720 --> 01:24:59,640
Speaker 2: same thing with a lot of the political correctness.

1518
01:25:00,040 --> 01:25:02,639
Speaker 1: Well right, like like you quoted last week, I think

1519
01:25:02,640 --> 01:25:04,479
Speaker 1: it was in your last sub stack where you know

1520
01:25:04,600 --> 01:25:08,040
Speaker 1: you want deep dark at parties that you don't want

1521
01:25:08,080 --> 01:25:12,240
Speaker 1: me at. You know, you know the whole Jack Nicholson point,

1522
01:25:12,479 --> 01:25:14,960
Speaker 1: you want me on that wall. You may, you may

1523
01:25:15,160 --> 01:25:17,840
Speaker 1: sneer at me, you may not like you know this

1524
01:25:17,960 --> 01:25:21,479
Speaker 1: or that. I'm totally mangling it because I haven't rewatched

1525
01:25:21,520 --> 01:25:23,919
Speaker 1: that movie in a long time, because I don't stumble

1526
01:25:24,000 --> 01:25:26,800
Speaker 1: upon movies anymore in our era of streaming. But sorry,

1527
01:25:26,800 --> 01:25:29,120
Speaker 1: that's a rant, like that's the one thing I miss

1528
01:25:29,280 --> 01:25:31,679
Speaker 1: right watching pieces of movies like in the old days.

1529
01:25:31,880 --> 01:25:34,920
Speaker 1: I think our friend Bill Simmons the entire rewatchable. It's

1530
01:25:34,960 --> 01:25:38,519
Speaker 1: probably gonna have to become the rebingeables because nobody watches

1531
01:25:38,600 --> 01:25:41,760
Speaker 1: pieces of movies anymore, because of because of how we

1532
01:25:41,800 --> 01:25:47,200
Speaker 1: consume content. But Nicholson was that person, right, Nicholson is

1533
01:25:47,240 --> 01:25:51,000
Speaker 1: the I don't want to know the tactics you're doing,

1534
01:25:51,040 --> 01:25:54,920
Speaker 1: and if I do, I will condemn them, but please

1535
01:25:55,000 --> 01:25:55,840
Speaker 1: keep the streets clean.

1536
01:25:57,080 --> 01:25:59,880
Speaker 2: Right, and you you absolutely have that, you're right. I did.

1537
01:26:00,120 --> 01:26:03,160
Speaker 2: I did include that, and it was in a reference

1538
01:26:03,320 --> 01:26:06,920
Speaker 2: to Canada, which was kind of funnycause ended up getting

1539
01:26:06,920 --> 01:26:10,800
Speaker 2: about four or five emails from Canadian readers, you know,

1540
01:26:11,479 --> 01:26:16,160
Speaker 2: who didn't appreciate, uh, you know, in the bois Well

1541
01:26:16,439 --> 01:26:19,479
Speaker 2: to the point I made both when I was up

1542
01:26:19,479 --> 01:26:21,160
Speaker 2: there at a speaking thing or I was the only

1543
01:26:21,160 --> 01:26:23,679
Speaker 2: American man that they come after me. But I said, look,

1544
01:26:24,160 --> 01:26:28,479
Speaker 2: if you're Donald Trump, you know you have you again

1545
01:26:28,720 --> 01:26:31,920
Speaker 2: the how well you know, fifty first state and just

1546
01:26:32,200 --> 01:26:34,600
Speaker 2: kind of offensive to one of our great allies and

1547
01:26:34,600 --> 01:26:37,599
Speaker 2: neighbors and friends up north. But if your team Trump,

1548
01:26:37,640 --> 01:26:40,000
Speaker 2: You're like, okay, fine, but you know what we got.

1549
01:26:40,320 --> 01:26:42,280
Speaker 2: We got a guy who ran who said he was

1550
01:26:42,320 --> 01:26:45,400
Speaker 2: going to massively increase Canada's defense spending, which we've been

1551
01:26:45,439 --> 01:26:48,040
Speaker 2: building begging them to do for years and years and years.

1552
01:26:48,360 --> 01:26:50,439
Speaker 2: Now all of a sudden, mad at me, they're going

1553
01:26:50,520 --> 01:26:52,400
Speaker 2: to do it. They ended their carbon tax, they're going

1554
01:26:52,439 --> 01:26:55,120
Speaker 2: to reduce their immigration, and they're going to quote, build,

1555
01:26:55,200 --> 01:26:58,080
Speaker 2: baby build, according to Carney. So if you're the president,

1556
01:26:58,160 --> 01:27:00,400
Speaker 2: you're President Trump, maybe they're not going to put you

1557
01:27:00,439 --> 01:27:04,519
Speaker 2: on a Canadian postage stamp. But the why all of

1558
01:27:04,520 --> 01:27:07,720
Speaker 2: these things they weren't doing, You know, could there be

1559
01:27:07,880 --> 01:27:11,479
Speaker 2: a kinder and gentler and less jerky way to do it?

1560
01:27:11,640 --> 01:27:14,520
Speaker 2: I think so when you think so. But the administration

1561
01:27:14,600 --> 01:27:17,920
Speaker 2: would say every president prior to Trump was begging our

1562
01:27:18,000 --> 01:27:20,960
Speaker 2: NATO allies to meet their two percent commitment to defense.

1563
01:27:21,680 --> 01:27:24,679
Speaker 2: Trump comes in makes some question whether we're still committed

1564
01:27:24,680 --> 01:27:26,519
Speaker 2: to NATO and now they're all going to five percent

1565
01:27:27,479 --> 01:27:29,559
Speaker 2: with a big assist Vladimir Putin.

1566
01:27:29,760 --> 01:27:32,000
Speaker 1: Let's go to the crime way because I find it

1567
01:27:32,040 --> 01:27:35,240
Speaker 1: interesting we have Wes Moore and JB. Pritzker who are

1568
01:27:35,439 --> 01:27:38,320
Speaker 1: handling this completely differently.

1569
01:27:39,200 --> 01:27:39,400
Speaker 2: JB.

1570
01:27:39,520 --> 01:27:43,759
Speaker 1: Pritzker is touring Chicago touting how safe it is. Wes

1571
01:27:43,760 --> 01:27:47,000
Speaker 1: Moore is saying stay out of Baltimore. I'm we're making

1572
01:27:47,080 --> 01:27:51,639
Speaker 1: progress and I'm going to surge my own resources into

1573
01:27:51,640 --> 01:27:53,960
Speaker 1: the city to help them out, but you stay out

1574
01:27:54,000 --> 01:28:00,240
Speaker 1: federal government. Which one is got is building the better

1575
01:28:00,280 --> 01:28:01,599
Speaker 1: profile for twenty twenty eight?

1576
01:28:02,479 --> 01:28:05,400
Speaker 2: Well, I'd say Muriel Bowser, but the mayor of d

1577
01:28:05,560 --> 01:28:07,040
Speaker 2: C who says, great.

1578
01:28:06,800 --> 01:28:09,760
Speaker 1: Feed you want to be trapped, you know, I always yeah,

1579
01:28:09,880 --> 01:28:12,559
Speaker 1: she's got handcuffs on her literally, I'm not literally, but.

1580
01:28:14,200 --> 01:28:17,599
Speaker 2: Sorry, policy handcuffs on her a little bit. Look, it's

1581
01:28:19,880 --> 01:28:23,599
Speaker 2: more is a fascinating guy, you know, it's it's I'm

1582
01:28:23,680 --> 01:28:27,520
Speaker 2: hoping as a Marylander, I'm hoping he is wildly successful

1583
01:28:27,560 --> 01:28:29,720
Speaker 2: as governor because that's good for those of us who

1584
01:28:29,800 --> 01:28:33,920
Speaker 2: live here in the Old Bay State. And he's having

1585
01:28:33,960 --> 01:28:36,880
Speaker 2: met him a few times, he's a charismatic, interesting guy.

1586
01:28:38,640 --> 01:28:43,880
Speaker 2: If Pritzker a billionaire, you know, although he's he's he's

1587
01:28:43,920 --> 01:28:46,280
Speaker 2: getting in shape if you notice, he's a big, heavy

1588
01:28:46,280 --> 01:28:49,280
Speaker 2: set fellow, and and he's slimming down, which is what

1589
01:28:49,400 --> 01:28:51,599
Speaker 2: folks who want to run for president do. And it's

1590
01:28:51,640 --> 01:28:54,080
Speaker 2: also a way to be healthy, which is good. Right.

1591
01:28:55,479 --> 01:28:57,519
Speaker 2: The idea the Dems are going to pick even a

1592
01:28:57,880 --> 01:29:02,720
Speaker 2: progressive billionaire just feels so. I don't see how you

1593
01:29:02,760 --> 01:29:06,880
Speaker 2: make it through the primaries. He's obviously very smart, you know,

1594
01:29:07,280 --> 01:29:09,400
Speaker 2: he's saying stay out of my state. But over the

1595
01:29:09,680 --> 01:29:12,800
Speaker 2: Labor Day weekend there were what fifty seven shootings and

1596
01:29:12,840 --> 01:29:20,360
Speaker 2: thirty deaths, and Chicago's tough. I'm not sure to your

1597
01:29:20,400 --> 01:29:23,520
Speaker 2: point you made a moment ago, I'm not sure I

1598
01:29:23,560 --> 01:29:27,920
Speaker 2: see a Democratic governor or mayor right now that I

1599
01:29:27,960 --> 01:29:30,400
Speaker 2: think has cracked the code. On how to play Trump

1600
01:29:30,520 --> 01:29:35,120
Speaker 2: on crime, because too many Democrats are saying, look at

1601
01:29:35,160 --> 01:29:38,559
Speaker 2: the statistics, but crime is a visceral, emotional issue.

1602
01:29:38,880 --> 01:29:41,200
Speaker 1: We're all afraid of it. It's like the economy. It

1603
01:29:41,760 --> 01:29:45,280
Speaker 1: is a vibe. Vibes do matter because the perception is

1604
01:29:45,320 --> 01:29:47,920
Speaker 1: the reality as far as it is far. You know,

1605
01:29:47,920 --> 01:29:50,040
Speaker 1: if people think a city's unsafe, they're not going to

1606
01:29:50,040 --> 01:29:53,400
Speaker 1: travel into that city hard stop and look, is it

1607
01:29:53,520 --> 01:29:56,960
Speaker 1: true that I think some of the caricatures have gone haywire?

1608
01:29:57,040 --> 01:29:59,719
Speaker 1: I mean, I know this firsthand. I had a friend

1609
01:30:00,080 --> 01:30:06,960
Speaker 1: visit recently recently and expected mayhem and came to go

1610
01:30:07,000 --> 01:30:09,720
Speaker 1: see Springsteen. Okay, it was at Nationals Park, so it's

1611
01:30:09,760 --> 01:30:11,960
Speaker 1: probably six months ago. You know, I want to say,

1612
01:30:12,000 --> 01:30:15,960
Speaker 1: like it's six or eight months ago, and oh my god,

1613
01:30:16,000 --> 01:30:19,760
Speaker 1: everything I thought it was good. Everything was great, the

1614
01:30:19,800 --> 01:30:22,720
Speaker 1: city was great, et cetera, et cetera. But you know

1615
01:30:22,800 --> 01:30:25,160
Speaker 1: that perception can turn into reality because it does drive

1616
01:30:25,200 --> 01:30:30,799
Speaker 1: people away. And there is the perception reality and reality reality.

1617
01:30:30,960 --> 01:30:35,800
Speaker 1: You know, whether it's carjacking or otherwise, DC is not

1618
01:30:37,160 --> 01:30:39,320
Speaker 1: you And I know go to some number of European

1619
01:30:39,400 --> 01:30:42,559
Speaker 1: or other cities. American cities feel a lot less safe

1620
01:30:42,640 --> 01:30:45,599
Speaker 1: a lot less often the idea of the nation's capital,

1621
01:30:46,240 --> 01:30:48,280
Speaker 1: you know, is a place you need to watch yourself.

1622
01:30:48,320 --> 01:30:50,920
Speaker 1: You need to be really careful, you know, I mean

1623
01:30:51,080 --> 01:30:53,920
Speaker 1: a single event is an anecdote as opposed to the data.

1624
01:30:53,960 --> 01:30:57,680
Speaker 1: But my daughter's boyfriend who just graduated and moved here

1625
01:30:57,720 --> 01:31:00,320
Speaker 1: to town two days before Trump and now this is

1626
01:31:00,760 --> 01:31:04,160
Speaker 1: the federal moving in ten am, three blocks from the

1627
01:31:04,240 --> 01:31:07,439
Speaker 1: US Capitol, car rolls up, dude walks pulls, you know,

1628
01:31:07,479 --> 01:31:09,920
Speaker 1: pulls a gun is like just takes his wallet, and

1629
01:31:11,360 --> 01:31:16,240
Speaker 1: it's people worry about crime, and you desperately don't want

1630
01:31:16,280 --> 01:31:19,680
Speaker 1: to be in political in making crime political. But if

1631
01:31:19,720 --> 01:31:21,720
Speaker 1: you're in a political fight over crime, you don't want

1632
01:31:21,720 --> 01:31:23,080
Speaker 1: to be on the side of crime.

1633
01:31:23,120 --> 01:31:26,040
Speaker 2: Is not a problem because it's hard to win that one.

1634
01:31:26,280 --> 01:31:28,920
Speaker 1: You know, you and I were saw a Democratic Party

1635
01:31:28,920 --> 01:31:32,040
Speaker 1: in the nineties, respond to you know, I remember three

1636
01:31:32,040 --> 01:31:35,240
Speaker 1: strikes in you're out. Got a lot of Republican governors

1637
01:31:35,240 --> 01:31:38,479
Speaker 1: elected and re elected in nineteen ninety four, Pete Wilson

1638
01:31:39,200 --> 01:31:43,679
Speaker 1: and Pete Wilson in California, a Republican governor Jim Edgar

1639
01:31:43,720 --> 01:31:47,439
Speaker 1: and Illinois. A Republican governor George Pataki in New York,

1640
01:31:47,479 --> 01:31:50,360
Speaker 1: a Republican governor. And how did the Democrats respond to

1641
01:31:50,439 --> 01:31:53,960
Speaker 1: ninety five and ninety six, the infamous crime bill with

1642
01:31:54,000 --> 01:31:57,479
Speaker 1: a Republican Congress and a guy named Joe Biden as

1643
01:31:57,560 --> 01:32:00,840
Speaker 1: the face of it in the Senate hiring one hundred

1644
01:32:00,880 --> 01:32:01,839
Speaker 1: thousand more cops.

1645
01:32:02,560 --> 01:32:07,160
Speaker 2: I don't see that Democratic Party right now. Look, it's

1646
01:32:07,240 --> 01:32:09,920
Speaker 2: not your father's Democratic Party or the one that you

1647
01:32:10,000 --> 01:32:13,040
Speaker 2: and I you know, came to town and started dealing with.

1648
01:32:13,320 --> 01:32:16,760
Speaker 2: I'm sure you saw yesterday the new Gallup data. Yeah,

1649
01:32:17,120 --> 01:32:21,840
Speaker 2: where not socialism? Yeah? Or you know, Republican support for

1650
01:32:21,920 --> 01:32:24,559
Speaker 2: capitalism between twenty ten and twenty twenty five went up

1651
01:32:24,600 --> 01:32:27,519
Speaker 2: three points to seventy four percent, But it's less than

1652
01:32:27,520 --> 01:32:30,400
Speaker 2: half of the Democrats right now supported as it keeps falling,

1653
01:32:30,439 --> 01:32:34,040
Speaker 2: and support for socialism is near fifty percent among Democrats.

1654
01:32:34,080 --> 01:32:39,160
Speaker 2: So you take that issue, you take the crime issue again.

1655
01:32:39,240 --> 01:32:42,040
Speaker 2: I'd say it's a combination of the Trump effect push

1656
01:32:42,120 --> 01:32:46,800
Speaker 2: DEM's left, but POSTGFC, you have a huge part of

1657
01:32:46,840 --> 01:32:52,160
Speaker 2: the Liberal party that says, hey, we're not being listened to.

1658
01:32:52,360 --> 01:32:54,840
Speaker 2: You know, the Hillary's given these speeches, the Goldman Sachs

1659
01:32:54,880 --> 01:32:56,160
Speaker 2: for a lot of money, and we're going to let's

1660
01:32:56,160 --> 01:32:58,759
Speaker 2: go vote for this Trump guy. You know, the Bernie

1661
01:32:58,880 --> 01:33:01,000
Speaker 2: is that Bernie is the popular as now AOC. The

1662
01:33:01,000 --> 01:33:03,920
Speaker 2: populism on the left, just like Trump is the populism

1663
01:33:03,920 --> 01:33:08,280
Speaker 2: on the right. And both establishment parties are struggling. The

1664
01:33:08,320 --> 01:33:11,160
Speaker 2: Dems are in an epic civil war right now. Who's

1665
01:33:11,200 --> 01:33:14,760
Speaker 2: going to be their standard bearer and where are they

1666
01:33:14,800 --> 01:33:17,639
Speaker 2: going to go? I know you and Solisa on your

1667
01:33:17,720 --> 01:33:20,479
Speaker 2: wonderful I don't know if it's weekly talks together and

1668
01:33:20,600 --> 01:33:23,439
Speaker 2: talk some about this. I found, by the way, Chuck,

1669
01:33:23,520 --> 01:33:26,160
Speaker 2: one of my secrets now I've decided for my sub

1670
01:33:26,200 --> 01:33:28,879
Speaker 2: stack is since I'm never going to be as visible

1671
01:33:28,960 --> 01:33:31,360
Speaker 2: or as smart as you sort of guys, but I

1672
01:33:31,360 --> 01:33:34,040
Speaker 2: can be first. So I did my look at twenty

1673
01:33:34,080 --> 01:33:36,920
Speaker 2: twenty eight field like three months ago. I'm like, I'll

1674
01:33:36,960 --> 01:33:39,760
Speaker 2: just hit stuff before everybody else does because I'm never

1675
01:33:39,800 --> 01:33:41,479
Speaker 2: going to If I go after you, I'm never going

1676
01:33:41,520 --> 01:33:43,400
Speaker 2: to be as good. Oh you're funny on that.

1677
01:33:43,840 --> 01:33:46,240
Speaker 1: Speaking of twenty twenty eight, I actually want to jump

1678
01:33:46,240 --> 01:33:47,599
Speaker 1: to twenty thirty two because.

1679
01:33:47,400 --> 01:33:48,240
Speaker 2: It's a piece of mind.

1680
01:33:48,600 --> 01:33:51,880
Speaker 1: But it gets that to why I do it as

1681
01:33:51,920 --> 01:33:55,000
Speaker 1: a roundabout way to say that two most important states

1682
01:33:55,520 --> 01:33:58,400
Speaker 1: I think now for the next decade are Georgia and

1683
01:33:58,439 --> 01:34:01,360
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Let me lay out the cases to why

1684
01:34:01,760 --> 01:34:05,720
Speaker 1: what Florida and Ohio were in the first decade, what Michigan, Wisconsin,

1685
01:34:05,760 --> 01:34:09,280
Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania have been for basically the last ten years,

1686
01:34:09,920 --> 01:34:11,799
Speaker 1: that now it's going to be Georgia and North Carolina.

1687
01:34:11,800 --> 01:34:14,559
Speaker 1: And let me explain by twenty thirty two, if the

1688
01:34:14,600 --> 01:34:22,200
Speaker 1: current estimates hold on reapportionment, Kamala Harris believe it or not,

1689
01:34:22,240 --> 01:34:25,640
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, had she only one of the

1690
01:34:25,640 --> 01:34:31,360
Speaker 1: swing states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, she'd gotten to write

1691
01:34:31,400 --> 01:34:34,679
Speaker 1: at two seventy. In twenty thirty two, that same map

1692
01:34:34,840 --> 01:34:37,200
Speaker 1: leaves her eleven electoral votes short. She'd be sitting at

1693
01:34:37,200 --> 01:34:40,600
Speaker 1: two fifty nine, which means a Sun Belt state Arizona,

1694
01:34:41,320 --> 01:34:45,120
Speaker 1: Georgia or North Carolina, and that they are really the

1695
01:34:45,280 --> 01:34:47,479
Speaker 1: new So I throw you probably have to throw Arizona

1696
01:34:47,520 --> 01:34:50,639
Speaker 1: in there. That those three states now the Big ten

1697
01:34:50,760 --> 01:34:55,680
Speaker 1: is out right and the acc SEC Big twelve states.

1698
01:34:55,720 --> 01:34:58,559
Speaker 1: Since there's no Big ten yet in the South, there

1699
01:34:58,600 --> 01:35:02,200
Speaker 1: will be I'm guessing, is it yet of those states

1700
01:35:02,840 --> 01:35:04,800
Speaker 1: that they are super important? And when you start to

1701
01:35:04,840 --> 01:35:07,719
Speaker 1: do the democratic math on Senate seats.

1702
01:35:07,760 --> 01:35:09,240
Speaker 2: Right now, if.

1703
01:35:09,120 --> 01:35:14,200
Speaker 1: The Democrats win every Senate seat in every consistent blue

1704
01:35:14,240 --> 01:35:18,200
Speaker 1: state plus the seven swing states, the ceiling for a

1705
01:35:18,240 --> 01:35:19,759
Speaker 1: Democratic Senate is fifty two.

1706
01:35:19,600 --> 01:35:22,559
Speaker 2: Seats fifty two max.

1707
01:35:23,640 --> 01:35:25,880
Speaker 1: Republicans are at fifty three right now, in case you're wondering,

1708
01:35:25,920 --> 01:35:28,880
Speaker 1: and they have and they're underperforming in the swing states,

1709
01:35:29,160 --> 01:35:31,960
Speaker 1: and they've underperformed in a few of their own states,

1710
01:35:32,120 --> 01:35:37,599
Speaker 1: so their ceiling is already higher. But that means holding

1711
01:35:37,680 --> 01:35:41,280
Speaker 1: Georgia Senate and winning North Carolina Senate, and then of

1712
01:35:41,280 --> 01:35:44,439
Speaker 1: course those states have to become If they don't win them,

1713
01:35:44,479 --> 01:35:48,000
Speaker 1: they won't win the presidency. Who wins Georgia North Carolina

1714
01:35:48,680 --> 01:35:51,679
Speaker 1: will decide who wins the presidency. And I think that

1715
01:35:51,680 --> 01:35:54,800
Speaker 1: that is in the twenty thirties, and frankly we're getting

1716
01:35:54,800 --> 01:35:59,160
Speaker 1: a taste of it now that those are probably the

1717
01:35:59,200 --> 01:36:01,479
Speaker 1: two most important states for the next decade.

1718
01:36:02,920 --> 01:36:07,200
Speaker 2: Thoughts, I agree with you. I wouldn't disagree with you first,

1719
01:36:07,200 --> 01:36:09,679
Speaker 2: because like this is literally what you cut your teeth

1720
01:36:09,800 --> 01:36:11,400
Speaker 2: and going and learning and studying.

1721
01:36:11,479 --> 01:36:14,000
Speaker 1: Well, it's more of me just trying to like get

1722
01:36:14,080 --> 01:36:16,559
Speaker 1: you to I know it makes your brain stir too

1723
01:36:16,600 --> 01:36:17,840
Speaker 1: when you start thinking about these things.

1724
01:36:17,920 --> 01:36:20,439
Speaker 2: So I think you're right. Is it David Brooks or

1725
01:36:20,479 --> 01:36:22,800
Speaker 2: is it maybe Ron Brownstein who's been talking about the

1726
01:36:22,800 --> 01:36:28,040
Speaker 2: Sun Belt rust Belt transition for a while. You're I

1727
01:36:28,080 --> 01:36:31,400
Speaker 2: think you're one hundred percent right. And that's that is

1728
01:36:31,479 --> 01:36:35,320
Speaker 2: not based upon tariffs or the economy or anything else.

1729
01:36:35,360 --> 01:36:38,560
Speaker 2: That's where people are choosing to live where the economy

1730
01:36:38,600 --> 01:36:42,000
Speaker 2: is stronger and where the economy is weaker, and all

1731
01:36:42,080 --> 01:36:44,080
Speaker 2: those indications are You're right.

1732
01:36:44,479 --> 01:36:47,720
Speaker 1: Well, and it ties into the socialism issue in this way.

1733
01:36:48,200 --> 01:36:51,160
Speaker 1: Go look at that Gallup poll and go look at

1734
01:36:51,200 --> 01:36:55,840
Speaker 1: where socialism is sort of most popular and where socialism

1735
01:36:56,000 --> 01:36:59,600
Speaker 1: is least popular. And this is where I think the

1736
01:36:59,640 --> 01:37:03,160
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders crowd and the AOC and the Mamdanis just

1737
01:37:03,280 --> 01:37:08,519
Speaker 1: don't understand the country. If you're in the North, and

1738
01:37:08,560 --> 01:37:12,080
Speaker 1: this includes your Wisconsin's, your Michigan's. This is why progressives

1739
01:37:12,320 --> 01:37:16,640
Speaker 1: can win statewide. A fetterment they can win statewide in

1740
01:37:16,720 --> 01:37:20,000
Speaker 1: the North is when you say socialism, they think the

1741
01:37:20,000 --> 01:37:21,040
Speaker 1: European socialism.

1742
01:37:22,080 --> 01:37:23,400
Speaker 2: When you go to the Sunbelt.

1743
01:37:24,200 --> 01:37:29,160
Speaker 1: The influx of Latino voters over multiple generations, now it

1744
01:37:29,240 --> 01:37:31,480
Speaker 1: is created. And I say this as a South Floridian.

1745
01:37:31,600 --> 01:37:34,120
Speaker 1: Somebody grew up in Miami who understands the S word,

1746
01:37:35,120 --> 01:37:39,760
Speaker 1: and the S word is synonymous with authoritarianism to a

1747
01:37:39,800 --> 01:37:42,679
Speaker 1: lot of Latinos in the South. And it's not just Cubans,

1748
01:37:43,080 --> 01:37:45,960
Speaker 1: It's not just Venezuelans. It is all over Latin America.

1749
01:37:46,080 --> 01:37:48,080
Speaker 1: Even when you see trust, may have a lot of

1750
01:37:48,120 --> 01:37:52,240
Speaker 1: Mexican friends who don't like Amlow or shine Bomb and

1751
01:37:52,280 --> 01:37:55,519
Speaker 1: the hard turn to the left because they view that

1752
01:37:55,600 --> 01:38:00,240
Speaker 1: as sort of following this path in Latin America where

1753
01:38:00,240 --> 01:38:04,000
Speaker 1: socialism and authoritarianism blur in the same way. Frankly that

1754
01:38:04,080 --> 01:38:07,960
Speaker 1: populism blurs with the version of authoritarianism in Europe and

1755
01:38:08,000 --> 01:38:11,360
Speaker 1: in Eastern Europe, and we've seen that. But it is

1756
01:38:11,640 --> 01:38:13,479
Speaker 1: it almost I look at it.

1757
01:38:13,360 --> 01:38:14,320
Speaker 2: It to me makes it.

1758
01:38:14,360 --> 01:38:17,000
Speaker 1: And I don't think the Democrats fully understand this yet

1759
01:38:17,680 --> 01:38:22,280
Speaker 1: because most most of their progressive activists are from the

1760
01:38:22,320 --> 01:38:26,439
Speaker 1: North and therefore don't fully appreciate how toxic the S

1761
01:38:26,479 --> 01:38:26,840
Speaker 1: word is.

1762
01:38:28,439 --> 01:38:32,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't seen the gallop for others break it down.

1763
01:38:32,640 --> 01:38:37,479
Speaker 2: My instinct would be it's certainly in cities and among

1764
01:38:37,600 --> 01:38:43,519
Speaker 2: younger people there's a higher embrace of the idea you

1765
01:38:43,520 --> 01:38:47,960
Speaker 2: know you're right, rather than some heavy ideological thing, more

1766
01:38:47,960 --> 01:38:51,559
Speaker 2: of an idea that there ought to be stronger safety

1767
01:38:51,560 --> 01:38:54,280
Speaker 2: nets that you know that whether.

1768
01:38:54,040 --> 01:38:57,120
Speaker 1: It's and the individual ideas do poll well right like

1769
01:38:57,200 --> 01:38:59,479
Speaker 1: as you know, but I would might you know, maybe

1770
01:38:59,520 --> 01:39:02,120
Speaker 1: at a minimum they could still pursue some of these ideas,

1771
01:39:02,680 --> 01:39:05,200
Speaker 1: but they need to radically fight the idea that it's

1772
01:39:05,200 --> 01:39:08,759
Speaker 1: socialism and in fact just say no, no, no, no. Investing

1773
01:39:08,760 --> 01:39:12,400
Speaker 1: in intel is socialism. Well, that sort of mindset, I

1774
01:39:12,400 --> 01:39:14,599
Speaker 1: think that's smart politics. But I totally agree.

1775
01:39:14,640 --> 01:39:17,240
Speaker 2: I think it's I tend to think socialism is an

1776
01:39:17,320 --> 01:39:21,640
Speaker 2: unrehabilitatable brand in an American election, right.

1777
01:39:21,400 --> 01:39:24,559
Speaker 1: And I don't think that everybody in the Democratic movement

1778
01:39:24,600 --> 01:39:25,000
Speaker 1: sees that.

1779
01:39:25,080 --> 01:39:29,080
Speaker 2: Yet, if you're AOC, you're raising the most money, you

1780
01:39:29,160 --> 01:39:35,320
Speaker 2: have incredibly huge adoring crowds everywhere you go, you all

1781
01:39:35,360 --> 01:39:40,120
Speaker 2: of your actual experiences. You're tapping into something that's real

1782
01:39:40,240 --> 01:39:44,000
Speaker 2: and that's meaningful. The challenge for the Democratic Party large

1783
01:39:44,040 --> 01:39:46,600
Speaker 2: is that can't be the entirety of the party. And

1784
01:39:46,640 --> 01:39:48,920
Speaker 2: if you have a candidate as weak as Biden proved

1785
01:39:48,920 --> 01:39:51,679
Speaker 2: to be, then you have to pander in a way

1786
01:39:51,760 --> 01:39:54,280
Speaker 2: where a great Bill Clinton type candidate or even a

1787
01:39:54,280 --> 01:39:58,200
Speaker 2: Barack Obama figures out. Here's how we're going to win,

1788
01:39:58,800 --> 01:40:00,720
Speaker 2: and I'm going to channel you want me to go

1789
01:40:00,760 --> 01:40:02,040
Speaker 2: more left, and I know you want me to go

1790
01:40:02,120 --> 01:40:04,840
Speaker 2: more right. I'm going to put it all together. And

1791
01:40:04,880 --> 01:40:07,240
Speaker 2: I think part of the problem with Biden is rather

1792
01:40:07,240 --> 01:40:09,240
Speaker 2: than being a strong candidate, he was more like the

1793
01:40:09,360 --> 01:40:13,519
Speaker 2: US under the America under the Confederation, where it was

1794
01:40:13,600 --> 01:40:16,400
Speaker 2: just the states were strong and the leadership was weak

1795
01:40:16,479 --> 01:40:18,360
Speaker 2: and you can't win nationally.

1796
01:40:18,560 --> 01:40:19,960
Speaker 1: Let me get you out of here on this. The

1797
01:40:20,040 --> 01:40:25,519
Speaker 1: redistricting wars. If we have more competitive Senate seats than

1798
01:40:25,560 --> 01:40:26,280
Speaker 1: House seats, what.

1799
01:40:26,240 --> 01:40:30,240
Speaker 2: Does that mean. Well, the first thing you could argue

1800
01:40:30,240 --> 01:40:34,080
Speaker 2: it means is that the politician the Republicans in Texas

1801
01:40:34,120 --> 01:40:37,479
Speaker 2: were so pathetic when they did the redistricting in twenty

1802
01:40:37,520 --> 01:40:40,320
Speaker 2: twenty one. They could have done this. The reason they

1803
01:40:40,320 --> 01:40:43,200
Speaker 2: didn't is because guys didn't want to have a plus

1804
01:40:43,240 --> 01:40:46,120
Speaker 2: eight Republican seat because that'd be a lot more work

1805
01:40:46,160 --> 01:40:49,960
Speaker 2: than a plus twenty Republican seat. And so in some

1806
01:40:50,080 --> 01:40:53,200
Speaker 2: ways this is a This is only a problem because

1807
01:40:53,640 --> 01:40:57,360
Speaker 2: incumbents had decided to keep it simple. Ironically, Chuck and

1808
01:40:57,400 --> 01:41:00,679
Speaker 2: I put this in one of my AI ones. If

1809
01:41:00,680 --> 01:41:04,120
Speaker 2: you put AI in terms you'd think, well, AI drawing seats,

1810
01:41:04,160 --> 01:41:06,080
Speaker 2: I mean it will be. It can come up with

1811
01:41:06,160 --> 01:41:10,760
Speaker 2: the most perfect whatever you tell it to do. Yeah,

1812
01:41:10,840 --> 01:41:13,080
Speaker 2: you can get it to so. But then they can

1813
01:41:13,120 --> 01:41:15,839
Speaker 2: you know, they can carve them. They can test everything,

1814
01:41:15,880 --> 01:41:18,280
Speaker 2: and they can carve every But if you told inn

1815
01:41:18,280 --> 01:41:22,479
Speaker 2: AI maximize the number of seats that Republicans could win,

1816
01:41:23,520 --> 01:41:26,240
Speaker 2: you also increase the number of seats Democrats could win.

1817
01:41:26,280 --> 01:41:29,920
Speaker 2: You make for more competitive seats. What humans do is

1818
01:41:30,000 --> 01:41:33,200
Speaker 2: say I want a seat I can't lose, and so

1819
01:41:33,280 --> 01:41:35,439
Speaker 2: as a result you end up drawing, well, well, the Dems

1820
01:41:35,479 --> 01:41:37,680
Speaker 2: will get these seats and we'll get these seats. So

1821
01:41:38,000 --> 01:41:40,240
Speaker 2: first there is an irony that some of the redistricting

1822
01:41:40,320 --> 01:41:44,200
Speaker 2: wars are just that people were too self dealing to

1823
01:41:44,960 --> 01:41:47,320
Speaker 2: and didn't prioritize the party. And now Trump's coming and

1824
01:41:47,360 --> 01:41:50,200
Speaker 2: smacking everybody in the head saying, screw your seat. I

1825
01:41:50,280 --> 01:41:53,240
Speaker 2: care about my presidency. So go back and do what

1826
01:41:53,240 --> 01:41:55,840
Speaker 2: what you should do if you're thinking about me. But

1827
01:41:55,880 --> 01:42:00,360
Speaker 2: it's obviously it's unhealthy that we're now in this ronment

1828
01:42:00,439 --> 01:42:04,200
Speaker 2: where the if you're in a red state, they carve

1829
01:42:04,240 --> 01:42:06,320
Speaker 2: out all the blues so that you maybe forty five

1830
01:42:06,320 --> 01:42:08,040
Speaker 2: percent of the electorate and you're going to get ten

1831
01:42:08,040 --> 01:42:10,920
Speaker 2: percent of the seats. And I'm in Maryland and you know,

1832
01:42:10,960 --> 01:42:12,880
Speaker 2: I don't know what are we forty percent thirty five

1833
01:42:12,920 --> 01:42:16,240
Speaker 2: percent of the voter's probably tree're going to get maybe

1834
01:42:16,280 --> 01:42:19,479
Speaker 2: blanked or maybe get one seat. That just doesn't feel

1835
01:42:19,479 --> 01:42:22,840
Speaker 2: like a representative democracy to me. Of course, if you

1836
01:42:22,920 --> 01:42:24,880
Speaker 2: wanted to fix this to me, one of the first

1837
01:42:24,920 --> 01:42:27,280
Speaker 2: things you'd do is you'd say, how many seats are

1838
01:42:27,280 --> 01:42:29,880
Speaker 2: there in the House? Four hundred and thirty five? Not enough?

1839
01:42:30,200 --> 01:42:32,880
Speaker 2: Is how long? Has that been true? Since nineteen eleven

1840
01:42:32,920 --> 01:42:35,120
Speaker 2: when they passed the law? What'd they do from the

1841
01:42:35,160 --> 01:42:37,680
Speaker 2: founding of the Republic till nineteen eleven? They grew the

1842
01:42:37,720 --> 01:42:40,720
Speaker 2: House as the population grew so that it could be

1843
01:42:40,760 --> 01:42:44,559
Speaker 2: an actually representative body. They stop doing that, and now

1844
01:42:44,600 --> 01:42:48,440
Speaker 2: you make it much easier to do these ridiculous jerrymanders

1845
01:42:48,479 --> 01:42:49,400
Speaker 2: where people get.

1846
01:42:50,040 --> 01:42:52,000
Speaker 1: I bet you didn't know this, but you're echoing. I

1847
01:42:52,040 --> 01:42:55,640
Speaker 1: did a Ted talk on uncapped the House. If you

1848
01:42:55,680 --> 01:42:58,760
Speaker 1: want to solve so many problems, it's now live on

1849
01:42:58,800 --> 01:43:02,840
Speaker 1: the Ted talk machine. But this would fix those that

1850
01:43:02,880 --> 01:43:05,720
Speaker 1: don't let you know, it would if you increase the

1851
01:43:05,760 --> 01:43:08,120
Speaker 1: size of the House, you increase the electoral college numbers,

1852
01:43:08,160 --> 01:43:12,799
Speaker 1: which means you minimize the split decision of popular vote

1853
01:43:12,880 --> 01:43:19,320
Speaker 1: and electoral college. You you end up perhaps creating making redistricting,

1854
01:43:19,800 --> 01:43:24,160
Speaker 1: issuing jerrymandering less relevant, not to say it won't happen,

1855
01:43:24,439 --> 01:43:26,720
Speaker 1: but sort of less relevant. If you did this and

1856
01:43:27,320 --> 01:43:30,120
Speaker 1: all my word, we might diversify the types of people

1857
01:43:30,160 --> 01:43:33,040
Speaker 1: that make because you would, in theory shrink the number

1858
01:43:33,200 --> 01:43:36,439
Speaker 1: strength the physical size of congressional districts, which would make

1859
01:43:36,479 --> 01:43:39,599
Speaker 1: it which would open it up to people without big

1860
01:43:39,640 --> 01:43:41,840
Speaker 1: dollars to go run for it.

1861
01:43:41,840 --> 01:43:44,439
Speaker 2: It's and it's consistent with what the founders had designed.

1862
01:43:44,479 --> 01:43:45,679
Speaker 2: You're exactly what the right.

1863
01:43:45,960 --> 01:43:48,479
Speaker 1: No, and my fear is we're literally flipping it where

1864
01:43:48,479 --> 01:43:52,879
Speaker 1: the people's House is now the Senate, and the body

1865
01:43:53,000 --> 01:43:57,120
Speaker 1: that is controlled by state legislatures, which originally was elected

1866
01:43:57,160 --> 01:44:02,479
Speaker 1: the Senate, is now essentially electing the House. I look

1867
01:44:02,520 --> 01:44:07,080
Speaker 1: forward to listening to the Ted Talk. Hey, Bruce Melman,

1868
01:44:07,200 --> 01:44:09,559
Speaker 1: this was always a pleasure. I went over an hour.

1869
01:44:09,560 --> 01:44:13,040
Speaker 1: I didn't mean to, so my apologies. I appreciate the invitation.

1870
01:44:13,120 --> 01:44:14,320
Speaker 1: Always Chuck could to see you.

1871
01:44:24,560 --> 01:44:25,679
Speaker 2: Well. I hope you see why.

1872
01:44:26,200 --> 01:44:30,080
Speaker 1: I enjoy my conversations with Bruce Melman. We probably could

1873
01:44:30,080 --> 01:44:33,160
Speaker 1: have gone another hour or two. I think some of

1874
01:44:33,160 --> 01:44:35,280
Speaker 1: you would have hung on for that. But what it

1875
01:44:35,320 --> 01:44:39,439
Speaker 1: will mean is that he is somebody who I consider

1876
01:44:39,920 --> 01:44:41,960
Speaker 1: to be one of my regulars. I just really think

1877
01:44:42,000 --> 01:44:44,759
Speaker 1: he under He can help explain the business of Washington

1878
01:44:44,800 --> 01:44:47,800
Speaker 1: in a way, in a very honest and straightforward way

1879
01:44:49,000 --> 01:44:51,840
Speaker 1: that you don't get with many other practitioners there. On

1880
01:44:51,880 --> 01:44:54,759
Speaker 1: the reporting side of my friend Brody Mallins, you should

1881
01:44:54,800 --> 01:44:56,400
Speaker 1: check him out and follow him over at newsphere. It

1882
01:44:56,439 --> 01:44:59,599
Speaker 1: is probably the smartest and best lobbying reporter there is.

1883
01:45:00,920 --> 01:45:03,720
Speaker 1: But on the side that works in that community, I

1884
01:45:03,720 --> 01:45:07,000
Speaker 1: think Chris Melman is as smart and as straightforward and

1885
01:45:07,080 --> 01:45:11,280
Speaker 1: honest as they come. So it is Wednesday, and as

1886
01:45:11,320 --> 01:45:13,960
Speaker 1: you know, I've been doing this segment of top five lists,

1887
01:45:13,960 --> 01:45:16,960
Speaker 1: you know, for years now and months. This is a tradition.

1888
01:45:17,080 --> 01:45:18,679
Speaker 1: Unlike any other top.

1889
01:45:20,760 --> 01:45:23,839
Speaker 2: Five, top top top.

1890
01:45:25,680 --> 01:45:27,840
Speaker 1: So my top five lists, I am two of them.

1891
01:45:27,840 --> 01:45:28,200
Speaker 2: This week.

1892
01:45:28,240 --> 01:45:30,599
Speaker 1: I've had sort of a dnn R. It's actually related

1893
01:45:30,640 --> 01:45:33,840
Speaker 1: to my opening monologue today, which is right. It is

1894
01:45:33,920 --> 01:45:35,680
Speaker 1: pretty clear, and I think I've made the case that

1895
01:45:35,760 --> 01:45:38,920
Speaker 1: Democrats desperately have to expand their map they have got

1896
01:45:38,960 --> 01:45:43,479
Speaker 1: to put more states into the battleground, more states into

1897
01:45:43,479 --> 01:45:46,080
Speaker 1: the competitive column, whether it's for the ability to win

1898
01:45:46,120 --> 01:45:50,280
Speaker 1: Senate seats, to raise their ceiling farther above a fifty

1899
01:45:50,320 --> 01:45:55,800
Speaker 1: two seat maximum. But there's also opportunities for Republicans at

1900
01:45:55,800 --> 01:45:58,920
Speaker 1: this point to potentially expand the battleground, expand the number

1901
01:45:58,920 --> 01:46:01,800
Speaker 1: of states they have an op opportunity to contest. So,

1902
01:46:01,960 --> 01:46:05,680
Speaker 1: without further ado, I'm going to give you what I

1903
01:46:05,720 --> 01:46:12,240
Speaker 1: think are the top five opportunities for the Democrats to

1904
01:46:12,320 --> 01:46:16,040
Speaker 1: expand expand their map, whether it's to expand it for

1905
01:46:16,240 --> 01:46:19,040
Speaker 1: presidential electoral votes by twenty thirty two. And all of

1906
01:46:19,040 --> 01:46:21,880
Speaker 1: this is the five in order of the five most

1907
01:46:21,920 --> 01:46:24,639
Speaker 1: likely to make it into the battleground by twenty thirty two.

1908
01:46:25,040 --> 01:46:26,679
Speaker 1: I'm not saying this is going to happen by twenty

1909
01:46:26,720 --> 01:46:30,240
Speaker 1: twenty eight, though it could, but by twenty thirty two,

1910
01:46:30,479 --> 01:46:33,920
Speaker 1: what are the opportunities and where would the parties be

1911
01:46:33,960 --> 01:46:37,759
Speaker 1: smart to start investing today in order to make twenty

1912
01:46:37,840 --> 01:46:41,600
Speaker 1: thirty two a reality. So the number one state I

1913
01:46:41,640 --> 01:46:43,760
Speaker 1: have on my list that I think Democrats could get

1914
01:46:43,800 --> 01:46:46,440
Speaker 1: into the competitive comm by twenty thirty two is Alaska.

1915
01:46:46,960 --> 01:46:50,200
Speaker 1: I think Alaska is you know, any place where there's

1916
01:46:50,200 --> 01:46:53,240
Speaker 1: a libertarian lean not very happy with sort of this

1917
01:46:53,479 --> 01:46:58,439
Speaker 1: very sort of strong man government there. You know, it

1918
01:46:58,520 --> 01:47:02,439
Speaker 1: is we've seen democratic performance has slowly been improving in

1919
01:47:02,439 --> 01:47:05,280
Speaker 1: Alaska over about a ten year period. It was very similar.

1920
01:47:05,320 --> 01:47:08,880
Speaker 1: You saw a slow creep over over the years in

1921
01:47:08,960 --> 01:47:11,800
Speaker 1: Virginia and Colorado took a good decade or so, and

1922
01:47:11,840 --> 01:47:13,240
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden when they went, they went,

1923
01:47:14,120 --> 01:47:16,080
Speaker 1: and in fact, Colorado spent about it. You know, both

1924
01:47:16,160 --> 01:47:18,800
Speaker 1: Virginia and Colorado just spent basically one cycle in the

1925
01:47:18,840 --> 01:47:25,120
Speaker 1: battleground and then they ended up reliably light blue states. Alaska.

1926
01:47:25,720 --> 01:47:26,080
Speaker 2: It is.

1927
01:47:27,240 --> 01:47:31,120
Speaker 1: It feels like every election cycle the right, the right

1928
01:47:31,520 --> 01:47:35,840
Speaker 1: coalition gets smaller and the left and center the left

1929
01:47:35,840 --> 01:47:38,439
Speaker 1: has gotten closer to the center and this sort of

1930
01:47:38,680 --> 01:47:43,400
Speaker 1: independent slash, you know, de leaning fusion electorate. They have

1931
01:47:43,479 --> 01:47:49,240
Speaker 1: figured out more times than not how to be competitive here.

1932
01:47:49,320 --> 01:47:52,800
Speaker 1: So I think Alaska number one on the list there.

1933
01:47:52,840 --> 01:47:56,360
Speaker 1: Number two is Iowa. Now some of it, you know,

1934
01:47:56,400 --> 01:47:58,439
Speaker 1: it all depends on what happens in twenty twenty six,

1935
01:47:58,479 --> 01:48:00,920
Speaker 1: But if they elect a democratic governor twenty twenty six,

1936
01:48:01,240 --> 01:48:03,160
Speaker 1: I think they have as good of a chance as

1937
01:48:03,160 --> 01:48:06,479
Speaker 1: they've had in at least a decade. Then that puts

1938
01:48:06,960 --> 01:48:11,280
Speaker 1: Iowa back on the map potentially, and I think if

1939
01:48:11,360 --> 01:48:14,320
Speaker 1: the DNC were smart, they'd put Iowa back into the

1940
01:48:14,320 --> 01:48:17,840
Speaker 1: early primary calendar, embrace it because it would get because

1941
01:48:17,880 --> 01:48:22,880
Speaker 1: the biggest, basically the biggest impediment between Democrats expanding their

1942
01:48:22,920 --> 01:48:26,760
Speaker 1: map or having it narrow is whether they are able

1943
01:48:26,800 --> 01:48:28,080
Speaker 1: to campaign in rural America.

1944
01:48:28,439 --> 01:48:30,400
Speaker 2: Right it is rural. It is their.

1945
01:48:31,840 --> 01:48:34,719
Speaker 1: Allergy to campaigning in rural America over the last decade

1946
01:48:35,120 --> 01:48:39,720
Speaker 1: that has narrowed. This narrowed their list of battleground states

1947
01:48:39,800 --> 01:48:42,360
Speaker 1: down to as small as it is right now. You know,

1948
01:48:42,439 --> 01:48:44,880
Speaker 1: in fact, you know, take North Carolina, which I think

1949
01:48:44,880 --> 01:48:47,519
Speaker 1: now is becoming an essential state for Democrats if they

1950
01:48:47,560 --> 01:48:50,560
Speaker 1: ever want to hold majority power in the Senate or

1951
01:48:51,720 --> 01:48:55,719
Speaker 1: win a presidential election. You know, they've actually only carried

1952
01:48:55,720 --> 01:48:58,280
Speaker 1: North Carolina once in the twenty first centuries, two thousand

1953
01:48:58,280 --> 01:49:00,760
Speaker 1: and eight. And that's also the last Timemocrats elected a

1954
01:49:00,800 --> 01:49:03,200
Speaker 1: Senator in North Carolina. It was two thousand and eight,

1955
01:49:03,960 --> 01:49:06,640
Speaker 1: and it was because Obama did really well in the

1956
01:49:06,760 --> 01:49:11,320
Speaker 1: rural black counties that border South Carolina. That performance has

1957
01:49:11,360 --> 01:49:15,839
Speaker 1: been shrinking almost every election cycle. Since as Democrats shift

1958
01:49:15,880 --> 01:49:18,479
Speaker 1: their strategy away from rural America, it's been a huge

1959
01:49:18,479 --> 01:49:22,040
Speaker 1: disasteride argue, it's why they're on They're having to always

1960
01:49:22,120 --> 01:49:24,400
Speaker 1: draw these inside straits in order to see if they

1961
01:49:24,400 --> 01:49:26,479
Speaker 1: can get to fifty Senate seats plus one, see if

1962
01:49:26,479 --> 01:49:28,760
Speaker 1: they can get to two hundred and seventy electoral votes,

1963
01:49:28,800 --> 01:49:32,880
Speaker 1: because they've made it much harder on themselves because they've

1964
01:49:32,960 --> 01:49:33,919
Speaker 1: just sort of walked.

1965
01:49:33,720 --> 01:49:34,759
Speaker 2: Away from rural America.

1966
01:49:34,880 --> 01:49:37,840
Speaker 1: Some of it is sort of too many strategists live

1967
01:49:37,840 --> 01:49:41,200
Speaker 1: in the ascillate corridor doing too many strategists argue for

1968
01:49:41,240 --> 01:49:43,840
Speaker 1: writing in the Democratic side writing off roural America because

1969
01:49:43,840 --> 01:49:47,479
Speaker 1: it's an inefficient use of dollars. Just maximize turnout in

1970
01:49:47,479 --> 01:49:49,479
Speaker 1: the cities, in the suburbs, and you can offset that

1971
01:49:49,880 --> 01:49:53,160
Speaker 1: not enough vote. All these things well, the Republicans target

1972
01:49:53,280 --> 01:49:57,400
Speaker 1: urban America and shave their margins off. And in fact,

1973
01:49:57,400 --> 01:50:00,200
Speaker 1: when Republicans win in blue or light blue states, it's

1974
01:50:00,240 --> 01:50:04,080
Speaker 1: usually because they lose the metro areas by less than

1975
01:50:04,080 --> 01:50:08,600
Speaker 1: they normally do. Well, it's the same mindset on the

1976
01:50:08,600 --> 01:50:11,120
Speaker 1: Democratic side. If they cut if they you know, instead

1977
01:50:11,120 --> 01:50:14,880
Speaker 1: of losing eighty twenty in rural America, they lose seventy thirty,

1978
01:50:15,080 --> 01:50:17,559
Speaker 1: suddenly there's a bunch more states they could they could

1979
01:50:17,600 --> 01:50:19,439
Speaker 1: be putting in play and having.

1980
01:50:19,240 --> 01:50:21,240
Speaker 2: More success with. So number one is Alaska. Number two

1981
01:50:21,280 --> 01:50:21,759
Speaker 2: is Iowa.

1982
01:50:21,960 --> 01:50:25,320
Speaker 1: Number three, And this is where let me be honest here,

1983
01:50:26,520 --> 01:50:29,320
Speaker 1: I really think only Alaska and Iowa have a realistic

1984
01:50:29,360 --> 01:50:33,240
Speaker 1: path into the battleground of the Red States into the

1985
01:50:33,240 --> 01:50:37,599
Speaker 1: battleground by twenty thirty two. I promise your top five list.

1986
01:50:37,680 --> 01:50:40,560
Speaker 1: So my next three are Ohio. I put Texas in

1987
01:50:40,600 --> 01:50:43,240
Speaker 1: the four slot, and I put Kansas in the fifth slot,

1988
01:50:43,600 --> 01:50:47,519
Speaker 1: missing the cut or I think there's quasi competitiveness if

1989
01:50:47,600 --> 01:50:50,360
Speaker 1: the party knows how to brand itself and frankly rebrands

1990
01:50:50,400 --> 01:50:55,960
Speaker 1: itself outside of socialism word that's Mississippi, Florida in Utah.

1991
01:50:56,080 --> 01:50:59,160
Speaker 1: I think Mississippi is a cheaper investment than Florida is

1992
01:50:59,479 --> 01:51:04,320
Speaker 1: and Utah. Still, you know, there's still some cultural disconnect.

1993
01:51:04,320 --> 01:51:10,400
Speaker 1: But I do think, you know, as Trump has lowered

1994
01:51:10,400 --> 01:51:15,720
Speaker 1: the bar of character and politics, the most reliably Republican

1995
01:51:15,760 --> 01:51:19,120
Speaker 1: group that has been the most uncomfortable with this sort

1996
01:51:19,120 --> 01:51:26,160
Speaker 1: of low character style of of of of of practicing

1997
01:51:26,200 --> 01:51:30,000
Speaker 1: politics have been Mormons. And is there a way to

1998
01:51:30,560 --> 01:51:34,320
Speaker 1: connect with that constituency in a way that would allow

1999
01:51:35,240 --> 01:51:39,440
Speaker 1: give Democrats a more competitive advantage in Utah. I'm skeptical,

2000
01:51:39,600 --> 01:51:42,840
Speaker 1: but but I do think it. You know, a a

2001
01:51:42,960 --> 01:51:45,519
Speaker 1: party desperate to become a national party again, and I

2002
01:51:45,560 --> 01:51:48,800
Speaker 1: don't think the Democrats are behaving as a national party

2003
01:51:48,840 --> 01:51:51,960
Speaker 1: the way they should. It would be something worth doing.

2004
01:51:52,000 --> 01:51:54,680
Speaker 1: So my top five of most of Demo, of the

2005
01:51:54,880 --> 01:51:57,160
Speaker 1: of this of the red states of Democrats, I think

2006
01:51:58,160 --> 01:52:00,960
Speaker 1: you can you could convince me there's path to making

2007
01:52:01,000 --> 01:52:03,600
Speaker 1: them competitive. One is Alaska, two is iow and I

2008
01:52:03,600 --> 01:52:07,759
Speaker 1: think those two are sort of realistic. And the longer

2009
01:52:07,760 --> 01:52:11,200
Speaker 1: shots are Ohio, Texas, and Kansas. We'll learn a lot

2010
01:52:11,240 --> 01:52:15,280
Speaker 1: more about Ohio in twenty twenty six. If Vivek Ramaswami

2011
01:52:15,320 --> 01:52:18,040
Speaker 1: can win that governorship in Ohio, then I might argue,

2012
01:52:18,040 --> 01:52:22,320
Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's out of reach. I think he's

2013
01:52:23,040 --> 01:52:28,840
Speaker 1: I think he's I think he's beatable. Let's see what

2014
01:52:28,920 --> 01:52:31,760
Speaker 1: kind of campaign the eventual Democratic nomine runs, whether it's

2015
01:52:31,800 --> 01:52:34,599
Speaker 1: Amy Acton, who's more of an outsider, or maybe Tim Ryan,

2016
01:52:34,760 --> 01:52:37,640
Speaker 1: former Senate candidate himself house member he gets in. But

2017
01:52:38,640 --> 01:52:41,720
Speaker 1: you know, I'm very watching that governor's race, and it

2018
01:52:41,720 --> 01:52:44,760
Speaker 1: will tell me whether there is a future.

2019
01:52:44,439 --> 01:52:46,240
Speaker 2: For the Democrats' long term Ohio. And then of course

2020
01:52:46,240 --> 01:52:46,919
Speaker 2: there's shared.

2021
01:52:46,680 --> 01:52:52,880
Speaker 1: Browns Senate campaign, where he's trying one more time, and

2022
01:52:52,920 --> 01:52:55,879
Speaker 1: if he wins, his reward for winning is to potentially

2023
01:52:55,960 --> 01:52:59,640
Speaker 1: run again in twenty eight. Republicans have some opportunities, and

2024
01:52:59,680 --> 01:53:01,559
Speaker 1: if you looked at the map right now, I'd say

2025
01:53:01,479 --> 01:53:06,040
Speaker 1: the best opportunity for either party to put a new

2026
01:53:06,080 --> 01:53:08,719
Speaker 1: state into the battleground by twenty thirty two and frankly

2027
01:53:08,760 --> 01:53:12,519
Speaker 1: by twenty twenty eight, it's Minnesota. Minnesota is basically, you know,

2028
01:53:12,600 --> 01:53:17,360
Speaker 1: it borders Wisconsin, it borders the Dakota's. Minnesota's been this,

2029
01:53:17,560 --> 01:53:20,120
Speaker 1: you know, you know, the Minnesota hung in there with

2030
01:53:20,160 --> 01:53:23,680
Speaker 1: Walter Mondale. Minnesota was one of the few states Democrats

2031
01:53:23,720 --> 01:53:26,360
Speaker 1: carried in the seventy two election against Nixon.

2032
01:53:26,479 --> 01:53:27,160
Speaker 2: Minnesota.

2033
01:53:27,280 --> 01:53:31,840
Speaker 1: But every cycle it gets closer, every cycle it's less

2034
01:53:32,120 --> 01:53:33,920
Speaker 1: and I believe the last couple of times it's been

2035
01:53:34,000 --> 01:53:36,800
Speaker 1: less than five points. Trump may be a little too

2036
01:53:36,840 --> 01:53:39,720
Speaker 1: toxic for Minnesota, but a candidate not named Trump in

2037
01:53:39,760 --> 01:53:42,519
Speaker 1: a twenty twenty eight or twenty thirty two, I think

2038
01:53:42,560 --> 01:53:45,320
Speaker 1: Minnesota more than any other state is sort of the

2039
01:53:46,960 --> 01:53:50,880
Speaker 1: state most likely to enter the battleground next, I think

2040
01:53:51,120 --> 01:53:53,840
Speaker 1: under any of the states more so than Alaska is

2041
01:53:54,000 --> 01:53:57,400
Speaker 1: on the Democratic side, So that's the number one. Number

2042
01:53:57,400 --> 01:54:00,439
Speaker 1: two is New Hampshire, right hasn't been that law since

2043
01:54:00,520 --> 01:54:04,240
Speaker 1: New Hampshire. I think there's a New Hampshire is a

2044
01:54:04,360 --> 01:54:08,479
Speaker 1: very high college education, a college educated electorate, which is

2045
01:54:08,479 --> 01:54:14,880
Speaker 1: why Trump has underperformed the generic Republican vote there. If

2046
01:54:14,920 --> 01:54:18,679
Speaker 1: the Republicans sort of shift slightly away from trump Ism

2047
01:54:18,680 --> 01:54:21,640
Speaker 1: in twenty eight I could see New Hampshire getting right back.

2048
01:54:21,680 --> 01:54:23,439
Speaker 1: Any in the New Hampshire primary has a way of

2049
01:54:24,120 --> 01:54:26,960
Speaker 1: recreating swing voters. So I think that New Hampshire is

2050
01:54:27,360 --> 01:54:27,840
Speaker 1: number two.

2051
01:54:28,640 --> 01:54:29,639
Speaker 2: Then I think there's.

2052
01:54:29,479 --> 01:54:31,720
Speaker 1: A little bit of a of a of a line here.

2053
01:54:31,760 --> 01:54:35,839
Speaker 1: But Virginia is another state that I wonder when Trump's

2054
01:54:35,880 --> 01:54:39,120
Speaker 1: not If Trump is gone, does Virginia get a much

2055
01:54:39,160 --> 01:54:42,200
Speaker 1: closer to being purple again. I feel that way about

2056
01:54:42,320 --> 01:54:47,760
Speaker 1: Colorado potentially, but a bit a bit more so with Virginia.

2057
01:54:48,480 --> 01:54:52,080
Speaker 1: I'm very curious of the margin. I'm pretty confident Abigail Spaanberger.

2058
01:54:52,160 --> 01:54:54,040
Speaker 1: I think she's a She's a favorite for a reason.

2059
01:54:54,520 --> 01:54:55,840
Speaker 1: You know, if you were to ask me to set

2060
01:54:55,880 --> 01:54:58,720
Speaker 1: a points spread, I'd probably put it about five and

2061
01:54:58,720 --> 01:55:02,080
Speaker 1: a half, you know, north of one by double digits.

2062
01:55:02,120 --> 01:55:04,800
Speaker 1: When he won Virginia twenty seventeen, the first sort of

2063
01:55:04,840 --> 01:55:10,080
Speaker 1: reactionary anti Trump Virginia gubernatorial election. I think in this one,

2064
01:55:11,520 --> 01:55:15,200
Speaker 1: anything over five, and I think it's sort of maybe

2065
01:55:15,240 --> 01:55:17,240
Speaker 1: we are in a situation where Virginia's is going to

2066
01:55:17,320 --> 01:55:22,200
Speaker 1: be permanently light blue. But if it gets a little

2067
01:55:22,200 --> 01:55:24,320
Speaker 1: closer than we think, I think that's a sign that

2068
01:55:24,800 --> 01:55:30,000
Speaker 1: maybe Virginia isn't as rock solid blue as many Democrats believe.

2069
01:55:30,040 --> 01:55:30,280
Speaker 2: It is.

2070
01:55:30,560 --> 01:55:32,960
Speaker 1: Number four, Number five on my list much longer shots.

2071
01:55:33,120 --> 01:55:35,760
Speaker 1: Number four is New Jersey. I actually think New Jersey,

2072
01:55:36,680 --> 01:55:38,800
Speaker 1: if it's sort of still a trumpy party, I think

2073
01:55:38,840 --> 01:55:43,440
Speaker 1: New Jersey is one where Republicans haven't invested enough, and

2074
01:55:43,520 --> 01:55:46,440
Speaker 1: if they did, they I think they'd have better They'd

2075
01:55:46,440 --> 01:55:47,640
Speaker 1: have some better luck here.

2076
01:55:48,640 --> 01:55:50,280
Speaker 2: We're going to learn a lot in this governor's race.

2077
01:55:50,440 --> 01:55:55,680
Speaker 1: I'm fully betting that the New Jersey governor's race is

2078
01:55:55,800 --> 01:55:58,280
Speaker 1: much closer than the Virginia governor's race.

2079
01:55:58,480 --> 01:55:59,120
Speaker 2: We'll see.

2080
01:55:59,840 --> 01:56:02,240
Speaker 1: That's my bet, and I put New Jersey in the

2081
01:56:02,400 --> 01:56:06,000
Speaker 1: in the fourth slot there for Republicans of states most likely.

2082
01:56:05,920 --> 01:56:07,080
Speaker 2: They can bring into the battle round.

2083
01:56:07,200 --> 01:56:11,040
Speaker 1: And in the fifth slot, I had three choices that

2084
01:56:11,120 --> 01:56:17,120
Speaker 1: I was pondering, Colorado, New Mexico, and Rhode Island. Rhode

2085
01:56:17,160 --> 01:56:23,080
Speaker 1: Island very heavy union state, very blue collar. It's one

2086
01:56:23,120 --> 01:56:26,000
Speaker 1: of those that I've always kept an eye on because

2087
01:56:26,280 --> 01:56:28,240
Speaker 1: in the Trump era, it wouldn't surprise me if you

2088
01:56:28,280 --> 01:56:31,680
Speaker 1: can if there's a chance of overperforming there a little bit.

2089
01:56:31,840 --> 01:56:34,440
Speaker 1: But I ended up choosing New Mexico. As we've seen this,

2090
01:56:34,680 --> 01:56:38,080
Speaker 1: I think the swing, the swing vote in America politics

2091
01:56:38,080 --> 01:56:40,600
Speaker 1: for the next probably decade is going to be first,

2092
01:56:40,680 --> 01:56:46,160
Speaker 1: second and third generation Latino voters, and whether that's in Florida, Texas,

2093
01:56:46,160 --> 01:56:50,120
Speaker 1: New Mexico, Arizona, California, Colorado, but wherever they're you.

2094
01:56:50,080 --> 01:56:50,960
Speaker 2: Know, New Mexico.

2095
01:56:51,200 --> 01:56:54,680
Speaker 1: I And so I think that it's it's a state

2096
01:56:54,720 --> 01:56:56,760
Speaker 1: that wasn't that long ago they had a Republican senator

2097
01:56:56,760 --> 01:56:58,920
Speaker 1: in Pete Dimici. One that long ago that they had

2098
01:56:58,920 --> 01:57:04,120
Speaker 1: a Republican governance is Ana Martinez. New Mexico's always is

2099
01:57:04,160 --> 01:57:08,320
Speaker 1: a more competitive state than we gets overlooked sometimes on

2100
01:57:08,360 --> 01:57:11,200
Speaker 1: this front. So I put New Mexico in the five

2101
01:57:11,280 --> 01:57:15,200
Speaker 1: slot there so to wrap up top five Democratic opportunities

2102
01:57:15,280 --> 01:57:19,920
Speaker 1: for the battleground in twenty thirty two, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Kansas.

2103
01:57:20,200 --> 01:57:24,960
Speaker 1: For the Republicans, their top five states that could potentially

2104
01:57:25,080 --> 01:57:28,560
Speaker 1: enter the battleground by twenty thirty two Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia,

2105
01:57:28,640 --> 01:57:32,920
Speaker 1: New Jersey, and New Mexico. And like I said, the

2106
01:57:33,000 --> 01:57:35,640
Speaker 1: state that has the best chance of getting into the

2107
01:57:35,680 --> 01:57:40,400
Speaker 1: battleground before twenty thirty two for either party is Minnesota.

2108
01:57:40,480 --> 01:57:43,040
Speaker 2: All right, let's do a few questions, ask Chuck.

2109
01:57:46,920 --> 01:57:48,760
Speaker 1: I'm going to try to squeeze in three today since

2110
01:57:48,760 --> 01:57:50,800
Speaker 1: I gave you a little extra content there with the

2111
01:57:50,800 --> 01:57:54,840
Speaker 1: top five list. The first one comes from Karen in

2112
01:57:55,080 --> 01:57:57,960
Speaker 1: Rhode Island, and Karen writes, today there's a story in

2113
01:57:57,960 --> 01:58:00,000
Speaker 1: the New York Times headline as Congress lies down, Trump

2114
01:58:00,080 --> 01:58:02,480
Speaker 1: walks all over it. My question to you is why

2115
01:58:02,760 --> 01:58:05,160
Speaker 1: why be in Congress if you're not exercising power. By

2116
01:58:05,160 --> 01:58:07,840
Speaker 1: the way, I love the podcast and find it exceptionally informative.

2117
01:58:08,000 --> 01:58:10,680
Speaker 1: I admire your knowledge of history and electoral politics. Well, Karen,

2118
01:58:11,120 --> 01:58:13,440
Speaker 1: thank you. Are we related?

2119
01:58:13,520 --> 01:58:14,560
Speaker 2: Now? I'm kidding? Right?

2120
01:58:14,760 --> 01:58:17,200
Speaker 1: Would I feel like you gave me the type of

2121
01:58:17,320 --> 01:58:21,120
Speaker 1: compliment that only a longtime friend or family member might give.

2122
01:58:23,480 --> 01:58:24,600
Speaker 2: But I tease. Oh.

2123
01:58:24,680 --> 01:58:26,840
Speaker 1: And she also says she hears me on BPR, ah

2124
01:58:26,880 --> 01:58:29,160
Speaker 1: my friends in Boston. I love Jim and Marjorie. That

2125
01:58:29,360 --> 01:58:32,800
Speaker 1: is easily my favorite thing I do outside the podcast

2126
01:58:32,880 --> 01:58:36,520
Speaker 1: and newsphere every week. So I will talk to you

2127
01:58:36,560 --> 01:58:41,200
Speaker 1: on Thursday if you're a BPR listener. So this isn't

2128
01:58:42,000 --> 01:58:44,160
Speaker 1: I don't get it either, But this goes back to

2129
01:58:47,520 --> 01:58:52,760
Speaker 1: basically since nine to eleven, both parties, as they've gotten

2130
01:58:52,800 --> 01:58:58,600
Speaker 1: the presidency, have put a lot more pressure on their

2131
01:58:58,640 --> 01:59:00,480
Speaker 1: members of Congress to.

2132
01:59:00,080 --> 01:59:01,560
Speaker 2: Toe the line.

2133
01:59:01,760 --> 01:59:05,120
Speaker 1: And there's been and the voters have expected it in

2134
01:59:05,160 --> 01:59:09,040
Speaker 1: some ways, you know. And I don't know if the

2135
01:59:09,120 --> 01:59:12,240
Speaker 1: chicken or egg conversation right, which is the two thousand election,

2136
01:59:12,360 --> 01:59:14,720
Speaker 1: because it was, you know, the two thousand election at.

2137
01:59:14,600 --> 01:59:15,600
Speaker 2: The time was an anomaly.

2138
01:59:15,640 --> 01:59:19,080
Speaker 1: We hadn't had an election that close since nineteen seventy six,

2139
01:59:19,160 --> 01:59:21,800
Speaker 1: and arguably really hadn't had election that close in sixty eight.

2140
01:59:23,960 --> 01:59:26,160
Speaker 1: But here we were with a super close election that

2141
01:59:27,120 --> 01:59:31,560
Speaker 1: sort of mainstream the idea of red and blue. And now,

2142
01:59:31,560 --> 01:59:33,400
Speaker 1: in hindsight, it turned out it was the beginning of

2143
01:59:33,440 --> 01:59:36,960
Speaker 1: this new era of polarization where we're pretty evenly divided

2144
01:59:37,000 --> 01:59:39,480
Speaker 1: and we're fighting. You know, it's this small little margins

2145
01:59:39,520 --> 01:59:42,800
Speaker 1: here that we're fighting. So I think is when the

2146
01:59:42,840 --> 01:59:45,280
Speaker 1: stakes are that high and the margins are that narrow,

2147
01:59:46,200 --> 01:59:50,120
Speaker 1: it puts more you know, the winning presidents put more

2148
01:59:50,160 --> 01:59:53,080
Speaker 1: pressure on their members of Congress to toe the line.

2149
01:59:53,160 --> 01:59:56,560
Speaker 1: You saw it during Obamacare, you saw in it during

2150
01:59:56,600 --> 01:59:59,640
Speaker 1: the Trump tax cuts. We saw it during Post nine

2151
01:59:59,640 --> 02:00:02,640
Speaker 1: to eleven and with the Department of Homeland Security and

2152
02:00:02,680 --> 02:00:06,240
Speaker 1: the creation of that during the Bush years. Medicare Part

2153
02:00:06,320 --> 02:00:09,600
Speaker 1: D that was another one that Bush did when he

2154
02:00:09,640 --> 02:00:11,920
Speaker 1: expanded that on prescription drugs. So the point is is

2155
02:00:11,960 --> 02:00:15,480
Speaker 1: that I think because of that, so it is almost

2156
02:00:15,800 --> 02:00:20,040
Speaker 1: it is almost conditioned Congress. I cannot imagine the members

2157
02:00:20,040 --> 02:00:22,560
Speaker 1: of Congress that I grew up with in the seventies

2158
02:00:22,560 --> 02:00:25,320
Speaker 1: and eighties and then I covered in the nineties. They

2159
02:00:25,320 --> 02:00:33,520
Speaker 1: were all protectors of sort of the legislative branch's status

2160
02:00:33,560 --> 02:00:37,040
Speaker 1: as a coequal branch. I mean, Bob Byrd, who's the

2161
02:00:37,080 --> 02:00:39,560
Speaker 1: longtime Senate Democratic leader, off and on, I mean, he

2162
02:00:39,600 --> 02:00:44,360
Speaker 1: would he would rail on this all the time, and

2163
02:00:44,800 --> 02:00:48,720
Speaker 1: so and Trent Lott was a protector a bit more

2164
02:00:49,080 --> 02:00:51,600
Speaker 1: but then when you got Bill Frist there, you got

2165
02:00:51,600 --> 02:00:54,760
Speaker 1: Tom Dashel, they all started to become a bit more

2166
02:00:54,800 --> 02:00:58,040
Speaker 1: supportive of their presidents fell and feeling that pressure. Then

2167
02:00:58,080 --> 02:01:00,920
Speaker 1: you saw it with the speakerships. Really was more of

2168
02:01:01,000 --> 02:01:03,400
Speaker 1: a governing partner with both Obama and Biden.

2169
02:01:03,920 --> 02:01:04,320
Speaker 2: She was.

2170
02:01:04,440 --> 02:01:08,000
Speaker 1: She was never an adversary. Really only became adversarial when

2171
02:01:08,040 --> 02:01:11,080
Speaker 1: when the Republicans there, and vice versa with the Republicans, right, Mike,

2172
02:01:11,200 --> 02:01:15,840
Speaker 1: you know, it appears that Congress only cares about its

2173
02:01:15,880 --> 02:01:19,440
Speaker 1: authority when the when whichever party is in the majority

2174
02:01:19,440 --> 02:01:23,560
Speaker 1: in Congress, if if it's the other party in charge

2175
02:01:23,560 --> 02:01:27,839
Speaker 1: of the White House. Now, I think there's just instant

2176
02:01:28,040 --> 02:01:30,640
Speaker 1: I think there's that we've had such a brain drain

2177
02:01:31,200 --> 02:01:35,720
Speaker 1: of members of Congress understanding their's frankly supremacy when it

2178
02:01:35,720 --> 02:01:37,880
Speaker 1: comes to appropriations and.

2179
02:01:37,840 --> 02:01:40,520
Speaker 2: Things like that. Uh, that.

2180
02:01:41,840 --> 02:01:46,560
Speaker 1: What I would call constitutional supremacy. That that there's just

2181
02:01:46,560 --> 02:01:49,320
Speaker 1: not there's not muscle memory to do it. I mean,

2182
02:01:49,440 --> 02:01:51,880
Speaker 1: just look at you know. What I haven't mentioned in

2183
02:01:51,920 --> 02:01:55,440
Speaker 1: this episode is the the entire Venezuela situation where where

2184
02:01:55,440 --> 02:01:58,160
Speaker 1: Haig Seth is is playing Secretary of War in Puerto

2185
02:01:58,240 --> 02:02:01,440
Speaker 1: Rico and we're getting all these resources ready. Apparently we

2186
02:02:02,240 --> 02:02:04,760
Speaker 1: are just going to blow up ships without any due process,

2187
02:02:04,800 --> 02:02:09,480
Speaker 1: without really informing Congress, without presenting evidence. I'm old enough

2188
02:02:09,520 --> 02:02:13,200
Speaker 1: to remember a Congress would have you know, many members

2189
02:02:13,200 --> 02:02:16,320
Speaker 1: of Congress would would have you know, been alarmed by this,

2190
02:02:16,360 --> 02:02:19,160
Speaker 1: would have been pounding their fix, would have been running

2191
02:02:19,160 --> 02:02:21,840
Speaker 1: to any camera they talked to, would have been demanding

2192
02:02:21,920 --> 02:02:27,280
Speaker 1: more explanations from this White House. Just crickets, right, Just crickets.

2193
02:02:27,280 --> 02:02:27,440
Speaker 2: Now.

2194
02:02:27,440 --> 02:02:29,320
Speaker 1: I'm sure if the Democrats win a majority of one

2195
02:02:29,320 --> 02:02:33,160
Speaker 1: of the two houses while Trump's president, they'll they'll suddenly

2196
02:02:34,080 --> 02:02:37,040
Speaker 1: start to get some of that muscle memory back and

2197
02:02:37,360 --> 02:02:41,560
Speaker 1: try to and try to enhance Congress's authority. But if

2198
02:02:41,560 --> 02:02:43,480
Speaker 1: a Democrat went to the White House in twenty eight,

2199
02:02:43,520 --> 02:02:49,720
Speaker 1: I don't expect Congress, do any democraticly controlled chamber to

2200
02:02:49,720 --> 02:02:52,680
Speaker 1: do anything other than olay whatever the Democratic president wants,

2201
02:02:52,840 --> 02:02:56,680
Speaker 1: because I think ultimately that's you know, there's probably you're

2202
02:02:56,720 --> 02:02:58,560
Speaker 1: going to get punished. I mean, look what happens to

2203
02:02:58,600 --> 02:03:01,640
Speaker 1: any Republican that crosses Trump. He goes after him, and

2204
02:03:01,640 --> 02:03:04,760
Speaker 1: he goes after him hard. Right, Thomas Massey is is

2205
02:03:04,920 --> 02:03:07,480
Speaker 1: he's going after Massie to set send a message to

2206
02:03:07,520 --> 02:03:13,280
Speaker 1: any other Republican that potentially crosses him. I'm not sure

2207
02:03:13,320 --> 02:03:19,919
Speaker 1: if the Democrats are going to try to punish wayward

2208
02:03:19,960 --> 02:03:22,880
Speaker 1: members like that, but we start to see more of it, right,

2209
02:03:22,880 --> 02:03:27,880
Speaker 1: We've certainly seen progressives try to hold some Democrats accountable

2210
02:03:28,760 --> 02:03:29,400
Speaker 1: for crossing.

2211
02:03:29,480 --> 02:03:31,120
Speaker 2: I remember the first one was in Arkansas.

2212
02:03:31,200 --> 02:03:35,040
Speaker 1: Blanche Lincoln and progresses, you know, funded a primary, recruited

2213
02:03:35,040 --> 02:03:36,840
Speaker 1: and funded a primary channel. Here she was a sitting

2214
02:03:36,840 --> 02:03:39,920
Speaker 1: senator in a state that was moving in the opposite direction.

2215
02:03:40,400 --> 02:03:42,879
Speaker 1: She gets this primary challenge from the left, she barely

2216
02:03:42,920 --> 02:03:46,480
Speaker 1: survives it, and then you know, she gets just wiped

2217
02:03:46,520 --> 02:03:52,440
Speaker 1: out in the general election. So but I wouldn't be

2218
02:03:52,480 --> 02:03:56,400
Speaker 1: surprised if the next Democratic president has a has a

2219
02:03:56,440 --> 02:04:01,280
Speaker 1: party that that enforces party discipline, and even more that

2220
02:04:01,280 --> 02:04:04,400
Speaker 1: that's sort of the reaction. So look, I think a

2221
02:04:04,400 --> 02:04:07,520
Speaker 1: whole bunch of members of Congress need to go back

2222
02:04:07,560 --> 02:04:09,760
Speaker 1: to politics one on one and learn the UH and

2223
02:04:09,800 --> 02:04:12,720
Speaker 1: maybe read a federalist paper or two about the constitution.

2224
02:04:14,760 --> 02:04:15,440
Speaker 2: But who knows.

2225
02:04:15,560 --> 02:04:17,480
Speaker 1: You know, maybe what we need as an independent a

2226
02:04:17,520 --> 02:04:21,320
Speaker 1: president who wins without either party's nomination, and then maybe

2227
02:04:21,360 --> 02:04:26,880
Speaker 1: that helps members of Congress in both parties learn uh,

2228
02:04:27,400 --> 02:04:31,120
Speaker 1: learn about their power again and try to actually use

2229
02:04:31,160 --> 02:04:33,880
Speaker 1: it every once in a while. All right, next question,

2230
02:04:33,920 --> 02:04:38,000
Speaker 1: all right, we got one from Australia, Brisbane. Love the

2231
02:04:38,000 --> 02:04:40,920
Speaker 1: podcast As a longtime follower of US politics from Australia,

2232
02:04:40,960 --> 02:04:42,840
Speaker 1: I really value the pod as a fresh perspective in

2233
02:04:42,880 --> 02:04:45,680
Speaker 1: these wild times. You've mentioned the idea of a constitutional

2234
02:04:45,720 --> 02:04:47,360
Speaker 1: convention before, and I'd love to hear your thoughts on

2235
02:04:47,600 --> 02:04:50,840
Speaker 1: reforms like ranked choice voting what we call preferential here,

2236
02:04:51,200 --> 02:04:55,680
Speaker 1: independent electoral districting like we have with the Australian Electoral Commission,

2237
02:04:55,920 --> 02:04:58,640
Speaker 1: and making battle and access less restrictive to break the

2238
02:04:58,680 --> 02:05:01,120
Speaker 1: two party do optly, do you think any of these

2239
02:05:01,600 --> 02:05:04,080
Speaker 1: could realistically gain traction in the United States or are

2240
02:05:04,120 --> 02:05:09,200
Speaker 1: they just wishful thinking from US outsiders? Gavin B from Brisbane, So, look,

2241
02:05:09,280 --> 02:05:14,040
Speaker 1: I do think there's nothing in the Constitution that deals

2242
02:05:14,080 --> 02:05:16,240
Speaker 1: with political parties, and I don't think you're going to

2243
02:05:16,320 --> 02:05:19,880
Speaker 1: have that. I do think you could have something in

2244
02:05:19,920 --> 02:05:23,960
Speaker 1: the Constitution that guaranteed some sort of equal access to

2245
02:05:24,000 --> 02:05:28,560
Speaker 1: the ballot for different political parties, sort of making it

2246
02:05:28,680 --> 02:05:31,400
Speaker 1: unconstitutional to create sort of one set of rules from

2247
02:05:31,560 --> 02:05:34,680
Speaker 1: quote unquote major parties and another set of rules for

2248
02:05:34,760 --> 02:05:36,240
Speaker 1: independents and minor parties.

2249
02:05:36,720 --> 02:05:37,560
Speaker 2: What do I mean by that?

2250
02:05:38,000 --> 02:05:42,200
Speaker 1: In many states you need more partisan signatures to qualify

2251
02:05:42,240 --> 02:05:44,120
Speaker 1: for a ballot if you're not a member of either

2252
02:05:44,160 --> 02:05:45,640
Speaker 1: of the two major parties than if.

2253
02:05:45,520 --> 02:05:46,760
Speaker 2: You are right.

2254
02:05:46,840 --> 02:05:49,879
Speaker 1: And those things, I don't understand how they're not already

2255
02:05:49,920 --> 02:05:53,720
Speaker 1: violations of the Constitution of the equal protection clause. And

2256
02:05:53,800 --> 02:05:57,480
Speaker 1: I certainly think some independence ought to be thinking independent candidates,

2257
02:05:57,520 --> 02:06:02,960
Speaker 1: and some independent those are advocating for new parties ought

2258
02:06:02,960 --> 02:06:05,360
Speaker 1: to be pushing pushing on that.

2259
02:06:05,480 --> 02:06:06,040
Speaker 2: A little bit.

2260
02:06:06,120 --> 02:06:09,240
Speaker 1: But I go back to what would a constitution. I

2261
02:06:09,320 --> 02:06:12,600
Speaker 1: think that some form of age limits. The only way

2262
02:06:12,600 --> 02:06:14,080
Speaker 1: we're going to be able to put age limits in

2263
02:06:14,080 --> 02:06:16,840
Speaker 1: on who can hold office and what age they can hand,

2264
02:06:16,880 --> 02:06:19,040
Speaker 1: you're going to have to put in a constitutional amendment.

2265
02:06:19,560 --> 02:06:22,840
Speaker 1: I do think you can create a metric on the

2266
02:06:22,840 --> 02:06:26,600
Speaker 1: size of a congressional district, which is a way of creating.

2267
02:06:28,080 --> 02:06:29,640
Speaker 2: Creating both two things.

2268
02:06:30,560 --> 02:06:33,240
Speaker 1: Forcing the expansion of the House of Representatives when the

2269
02:06:33,280 --> 02:06:36,600
Speaker 1: population deems it so, or even the contraction if we

2270
02:06:36,640 --> 02:06:39,240
Speaker 1: somehow start shrinking in population. But if you can put

2271
02:06:39,280 --> 02:06:40,760
Speaker 1: a metric, I think I came up with one point

2272
02:06:40,880 --> 02:06:44,080
Speaker 1: zero zero one percent of the population that no congressional

2273
02:06:44,080 --> 02:06:45,200
Speaker 1: district should be bigger than that.

2274
02:06:45,320 --> 02:06:46,280
Speaker 2: And if you if you.

2275
02:06:46,360 --> 02:06:49,000
Speaker 1: Got to that right now, that would be one member

2276
02:06:49,040 --> 02:06:52,200
Speaker 1: for every four hundred thousand Americans. It is currently this

2277
02:06:52,280 --> 02:06:57,760
Speaker 1: Congress is basically one member represents eight hundred thousand Americans.

2278
02:06:57,760 --> 02:07:01,680
Speaker 1: So you know right now, point zero zero one would

2279
02:07:01,680 --> 02:07:03,080
Speaker 1: get you that one in four hundred thousand.

2280
02:07:03,120 --> 02:07:05,240
Speaker 2: So I think you could put that that.

2281
02:07:05,200 --> 02:07:07,760
Speaker 1: Number, the point zero zero one in there and then

2282
02:07:09,040 --> 02:07:11,680
Speaker 1: then you let the states execute it and it would fluctuate.

2283
02:07:11,760 --> 02:07:13,680
Speaker 1: So look, I think there are some ways that would

2284
02:07:13,720 --> 02:07:15,640
Speaker 1: get in there. I think a balanced budget amendment is

2285
02:07:15,640 --> 02:07:17,960
Speaker 1: something that that many have been fighting for. I think

2286
02:07:18,000 --> 02:07:20,120
Speaker 1: that would get in there. And the question is do

2287
02:07:20,160 --> 02:07:23,560
Speaker 1: you could you put anything in campaign finance? I think

2288
02:07:23,560 --> 02:07:27,520
Speaker 1: in the campaign finance arena, maybe it's instant disclosure, Maybe

2289
02:07:27,560 --> 02:07:30,200
Speaker 1: it's some sort of you know, you know, a ban

2290
02:07:30,360 --> 02:07:36,080
Speaker 1: on corporate giving, maybe putting in some sort of if

2291
02:07:36,120 --> 02:07:39,160
Speaker 1: you wanted to put a dollar amount restriction, or maybe

2292
02:07:39,240 --> 02:07:41,160
Speaker 1: a instead of a dollar amount again going back to

2293
02:07:41,520 --> 02:07:45,000
Speaker 1: you know, some sort of percentage of and you come

2294
02:07:45,080 --> 02:07:47,800
Speaker 1: up with a metric so that you have some sort

2295
02:07:47,800 --> 02:07:50,240
Speaker 1: of even if it's a moving cap, almost like a

2296
02:07:50,280 --> 02:07:53,680
Speaker 1: spending cap. But all of that, given the court rulings

2297
02:07:53,680 --> 02:07:55,560
Speaker 1: we've had, indicate that it would have to be part

2298
02:07:55,680 --> 02:08:00,200
Speaker 1: of the constitution. But any constitutional convention, Gavin is going

2299
02:08:00,240 --> 02:08:02,400
Speaker 1: to have to give something Team Blue and something to

2300
02:08:02,440 --> 02:08:04,120
Speaker 1: Team Red right in different ways.

2301
02:08:04,640 --> 02:08:05,240
Speaker 2: And so.

2302
02:08:06,720 --> 02:08:11,200
Speaker 1: That's why I think redistricting, balanced budget amendment, maybe age

2303
02:08:11,240 --> 02:08:15,040
Speaker 1: limits are probably the most realistic. Maybe a campaign finance

2304
02:08:15,040 --> 02:08:17,880
Speaker 1: thing can get in there, but I think that would

2305
02:08:17,920 --> 02:08:22,640
Speaker 1: be I you know, that's when I'm curious what the

2306
02:08:22,720 --> 02:08:24,000
Speaker 1: various ideas would look like.

2307
02:08:24,040 --> 02:08:25,240
Speaker 2: But I'm growing more.

2308
02:08:25,320 --> 02:08:28,760
Speaker 1: Look, it is time. It is time, and it would

2309
02:08:28,760 --> 02:08:31,600
Speaker 1: be healthy. It would be a great civics education for

2310
02:08:31,640 --> 02:08:36,360
Speaker 1: the country, But it is time, all right. Last question

2311
02:08:36,440 --> 02:08:39,280
Speaker 1: for this one comes from a fellow Floridian.

2312
02:08:39,480 --> 02:08:41,840
Speaker 2: So there you go.

2313
02:08:42,280 --> 02:08:44,120
Speaker 1: Hey, Chuck and Crue, just finished listening to the latest

2314
02:08:44,160 --> 02:08:46,440
Speaker 1: episode where you discussed the anti VAXX movement and Florida's

2315
02:08:46,440 --> 02:08:48,480
Speaker 1: proposal to get rid of vaccine mandates. I did want

2316
02:08:48,480 --> 02:08:50,440
Speaker 1: to poke some holes in your assessment that this moment

2317
02:08:50,480 --> 02:08:53,360
Speaker 1: mirrors that of the prohibition movement in the nineteen twenties.

2318
02:08:53,360 --> 02:08:53,760
Speaker 2: Excellent.

2319
02:08:54,080 --> 02:08:57,400
Speaker 1: I would argue the eugenics movement in the nineteen twenties

2320
02:08:57,440 --> 02:08:59,800
Speaker 1: and the post flu pandemic are much closer to the

2321
02:09:00,000 --> 02:09:03,600
Speaker 1: current moment than prohibition. Okay, especially since eugenics played a

2322
02:09:03,680 --> 02:09:06,880
Speaker 1: key role in the prohibition movement. True would love to

2323
02:09:06,920 --> 02:09:09,200
Speaker 1: see you have someone on the pod to talk about

2324
02:09:09,200 --> 02:09:11,720
Speaker 1: eugenics it's rise and influenced during the tens and twenties,

2325
02:09:12,000 --> 02:09:13,760
Speaker 1: and how we're you're seeing that same thing today.

2326
02:09:13,840 --> 02:09:17,320
Speaker 2: Really enjoy the show. A fellow Floridian, I wanted to

2327
02:09:17,400 --> 02:09:18,320
Speaker 2: keep your name anonymous.

2328
02:09:18,320 --> 02:09:23,520
Speaker 1: Totally totally get that, totally respect that. It's a fair right.

2329
02:09:23,640 --> 02:09:27,280
Speaker 1: You know, that's a fair take on that. We've gotten

2330
02:09:27,320 --> 02:09:30,760
Speaker 1: quite a bit of feedback on the ideas the anti

2331
02:09:30,880 --> 02:09:33,720
Speaker 1: vaxx movement. You know, is it sort of similar at

2332
02:09:33,840 --> 02:09:37,879
Speaker 1: least in how prohibition sort of really you know, somehow

2333
02:09:38,080 --> 02:09:42,200
Speaker 1: gained just enough traction to get implemented after the pandemic,

2334
02:09:42,280 --> 02:09:45,400
Speaker 1: And you know that we're a little you know, as

2335
02:09:45,400 --> 02:09:50,360
Speaker 1: a society, we we're almost like it's like we're swerving,

2336
02:09:51,160 --> 02:09:53,840
Speaker 1: you know, you know, to avoid something and in the

2337
02:09:53,880 --> 02:09:58,400
Speaker 1: aftermath of the pandemic. But here's what you've inspired me

2338
02:09:58,440 --> 02:10:00,160
Speaker 1: to do, because I had somebody else say it's not

2339
02:10:00,360 --> 02:10:05,360
Speaker 1: just prohibition, my gosh, it's tariffs, and it's and it's immigration.

2340
02:10:06,400 --> 02:10:10,640
Speaker 1: You know, we had immigration limits became a huge movement

2341
02:10:10,640 --> 02:10:13,440
Speaker 1: back then. That sort of also was sort of interwoven

2342
02:10:13,480 --> 02:10:18,640
Speaker 1: with eugenics as well. So I will take your suggestion

2343
02:10:19,800 --> 02:10:23,320
Speaker 1: and my crack producing team and we are gonna go

2344
02:10:23,360 --> 02:10:26,520
Speaker 1: find us a good scholar on the nineteen tens and twenties,

2345
02:10:26,560 --> 02:10:30,880
Speaker 1: because especially the nineteen twenties. Look, there's so many parallels.

2346
02:10:32,000 --> 02:10:35,480
Speaker 1: The Republican Party of the nineteen twenties that developed into

2347
02:10:35,480 --> 02:10:38,360
Speaker 1: the nineteen thirties looks very similar to the one we're

2348
02:10:38,360 --> 02:10:42,680
Speaker 1: dealing with today. Arguably, one of the greatest sort of

2349
02:10:44,960 --> 02:10:49,040
Speaker 1: grift grifts before we've seen the grift that we've been

2350
02:10:49,080 --> 02:10:52,800
Speaker 1: witnessing with this current situation that we're in with Crypto

2351
02:10:52,840 --> 02:10:58,000
Speaker 1: and the Trump family was Teapot Dome and the great

2352
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Speaker 1: scandal of the nineteen twenties of the Harding End administration.

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Speaker 1: So the answer is that's a good idea and we're

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Speaker 1: going to pursue it. So Anonymous from Florida, thank you

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Speaker 1: for helping with the producer idea of the day.

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Speaker 2: And with that, I will see you in twenty four

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Speaker 2: hours