WEBVTT - MLIV Pulse: Most Crypto Investors Want Regulation

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily Bloomberg I Heart podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm Stacy Marie Ishmael, Managing editor of Crypto for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. It's Thursday, November ten. One of the things

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<v Speaker 1>about the Bloomberg News room is we are very into data.

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<v Speaker 1>As part of that, my colleagues on the Markets Live

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<v Speaker 1>team do a weekly investors survey asking questions about different

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<v Speaker 1>elements of financial markets. It's called the m Live Pulse

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<v Speaker 1>Survey for the Markets Live team taking the pulse of

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<v Speaker 1>financial markets in October, that team asked investors for their

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<v Speaker 1>opinions about crypto. Obviously, Bloomberg Senior editor from Markets Kasha

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<v Speaker 1>KLi Manschinska is part of the Markets Live team and

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<v Speaker 1>responsible for these surveys. I think you know that retail

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<v Speaker 1>and professional investors may be investing, and it's coming for

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<v Speaker 1>different reasons. She joins me today. Along with Bloomberg reports

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<v Speaker 1>of Vildana Harreck, crypto has been moving in the same

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<v Speaker 1>way that stacks have been moving basically all year long.

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<v Speaker 1>To talk about the crypto results, Kasha, Buldana, so good

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<v Speaker 1>to have you on the show today. I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>we just barely scraped out what certain types of traders

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<v Speaker 1>were calling October right, this idea that October just about

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<v Speaker 1>managed to end the month in crypto higher than where

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<v Speaker 1>it started, and it was a bit of a slug,

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<v Speaker 1>but but we got there. And one of the other

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<v Speaker 1>things that we got to in October and Casha, I

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<v Speaker 1>love your perspective on this is what I thought. It

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<v Speaker 1>was a little bit of a surprising result from some

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<v Speaker 1>investors that your team pulled about, you know, crypto market sentiment.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell us a little bit more about what your findings

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<v Speaker 1>were and where these findings came from. Yeah, thanks for asking.

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<v Speaker 1>So my team halls very broad group of investors every week.

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<v Speaker 1>So there are portfolio managers, sell side by side traders,

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<v Speaker 1>even some executives, and of course retail investors. So every

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<v Speaker 1>week we asked them about something different. You know, one

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<v Speaker 1>time it's strong dollar, the other time it's treasuries, and

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<v Speaker 1>then the meme stocks, and this time we asked about bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>We found a lot of interesting things, but one of

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<v Speaker 1>them was that they expect bitcoin to kind of stabilize

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<v Speaker 1>in and trade in what you would say would be

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<v Speaker 1>a narrow range come compared to where the bitcoin went

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<v Speaker 1>over the past year, where it was all over the place, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So now investors that are saying it will stay between

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen thousand and twenty five thousand dollars, which is still

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<v Speaker 1>a wider range than's treading out right now, where it's

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<v Speaker 1>basically between like eighteen and twenty thou five hundred dollars, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And then you can also argue that it's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>a positive outlook. I mean, it is both downside and upside,

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<v Speaker 1>but not to the extremes, right. I Mean, we did

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<v Speaker 1>a similar survey a couple of months ago, and back

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<v Speaker 1>then people were expecting BIT going to go to the

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<v Speaker 1>ten thousand alaris or even lower. So this time you

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<v Speaker 1>could argue that investors are actually more optimistic about the

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<v Speaker 1>crypto asset Filana. What other signs of optimism are you

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<v Speaker 1>seeing in the markets, whether in in folks that you're

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<v Speaker 1>talking to, or just what you're seeing in fun flus

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<v Speaker 1>or other areas. I like to focus on the macro pictures.

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<v Speaker 1>So when I speak with investors, crypto investors, scripto strategy samalists,

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<v Speaker 1>I always asked about what's going on with the economy

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<v Speaker 1>with what they're seeing in terms of what the Federal

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<v Speaker 1>Reserve is doing. Because we know that all of those

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<v Speaker 1>actions by the FED in terms of them raising interest

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<v Speaker 1>rates this year is really what's weighed on risky assets,

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<v Speaker 1>including cryptocurrencies. So within the stock market, and this has

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<v Speaker 1>happened so many times this year. I think something like

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<v Speaker 1>five or six times we've seen stocks rallying because investors

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<v Speaker 1>are expecting a so called pivot from the FED. Now

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<v Speaker 1>that word actually means different things to different people. For some,

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<v Speaker 1>it means that the FED is going to stop hiking

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates. For others, it just means that they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be less aggressive. And we know crypto has been

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<v Speaker 1>moving in the same way that stocks have been moving

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<v Speaker 1>basically all year long, and so some are expecting that

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<v Speaker 1>if we do see this FED pivot, whatever it may

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<v Speaker 1>mean or whatever it may look like, that we could

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<v Speaker 1>also have a turn and sentiment for cryptocurrencies. And Kasha,

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<v Speaker 1>to Danna's point about the macro environments, one of the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest macro themes that's been not just influencing crypto with

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<v Speaker 1>driving crypto is regulation. What did the Market's Life Pulse

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<v Speaker 1>survey have to say about regulation? Yeah, so I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're quite surprised by this fine thing. So we ask

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<v Speaker 1>investors if they think not only regulations, but also enforcement

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<v Speaker 1>is positive forever. It will make them buy more invest

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<v Speaker 1>more in crypto. And they said yes. So according to

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<v Speaker 1>again this broad group of investors, some of them might

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<v Speaker 1>be crypto enthusiasts, some of them might be skeptics, but

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<v Speaker 1>they overall they seem to be saying, okay, taking Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>and other cryptosis out of the so called wild West

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<v Speaker 1>and into the main stream traditional investing, it's good for us.

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<v Speaker 1>That's where we are willing to look into it and

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<v Speaker 1>added to our postfolios. And when you say abroad group,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we had and it was more than five respondents.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the exact number was five hundred and sixty four,

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<v Speaker 1>and sixty percent of those respondents said that they thought

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<v Speaker 1>the recent space of legal action, including enforcement, was positive

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<v Speaker 1>for crypto. I was really interested in the breakdown between

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<v Speaker 1>folks who identified themselves as like retail investors and professional

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<v Speaker 1>investors on this question, because the retail investors said that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, sixty of the retail investors said they will

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<v Speaker 1>be more likely to invest in crypto because of this

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<v Speaker 1>grace enforcement, but only fifty six percent of the professional

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<v Speaker 1>investors said the same, Which is I think that to

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<v Speaker 1>me that that breakes me as unusual because a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the the rhetoric around we want regulatory clarity seems

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<v Speaker 1>to have come from the institutional space. Do we have

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<v Speaker 1>any theories as to why we had the split between

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<v Speaker 1>retail and professional on this question? Oh sure, yeah, And

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<v Speaker 1>I think Bill Dana can probably talk about it a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit as well. But I think you know that

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<v Speaker 1>retail and professional investors maybe investing in bitcoin for different reasons, right,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think for some retail investors is making

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<v Speaker 1>some kind of a statement being independent from the mainstream

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<v Speaker 1>financial system, whereas for professional investors, I think it's going

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<v Speaker 1>another Crypto assets might have a little bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>diversification element to them. And again I think Bill Dana

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<v Speaker 1>has already mentioned that a little bit that B's going

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<v Speaker 1>so far this year has been moving in tandem with

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<v Speaker 1>some other financial assets, which I think for some professional

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<v Speaker 1>investors might actually be a negative. Right. They were looking

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<v Speaker 1>for something that will be moving in a different way.

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<v Speaker 1>So if the entire market is impacted by the FED,

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<v Speaker 1>they want to have something in their portfolio that will,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, not go down with the other assets or

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<v Speaker 1>not go up, And they may be thought that bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>would play that role. But again, so far this year,

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<v Speaker 1>it seems that know that unfortunately bitcoin is kind of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, joining the race with with with other assets,

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<v Speaker 1>and that might just not be as attractive for some.

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<v Speaker 1>And if I can just add a little bit to this,

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<v Speaker 1>I also love the quote that we had in the story,

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<v Speaker 1>mostly because I got this quote, but also because it's

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<v Speaker 1>really good and it's that the more regulators can get

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<v Speaker 1>crypto out of the wild West, that's the key phrase,

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<v Speaker 1>and into traditional investing, the better off it's going to be.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think when we've talked about this on this

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<v Speaker 1>podcast before, where there's this sort of never ending hope,

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<v Speaker 1>there's never ending optimism within the crypto space, especially on

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<v Speaker 1>the part of retail investors, where the feature is always

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<v Speaker 1>going to be bright if you are a sort of

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<v Speaker 1>true believer in the space. So that's I think part

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<v Speaker 1>of it. But the other part not to to tamp

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<v Speaker 1>down on the party too much. But I think there's

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<v Speaker 1>a difference between people saying that they'd be interested in

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<v Speaker 1>the space if there's greater regulation and actually them waiting

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<v Speaker 1>into the space were we to see greater enforcement. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>reminded of an editor who used to say that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the best survey of market sentiments is the prices themselves,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've been quote unquote boring recently. Bitcoin is boring well.

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<v Speaker 1>According to one of the questions in the survey. We

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<v Speaker 1>also ask people like, what what's one word you think

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<v Speaker 1>of when we say bitcoin and with a like lovely

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<v Speaker 1>little word cloud And there were a few that were

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<v Speaker 1>all roughly the same size and they were bubble, volatile, future,

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<v Speaker 1>ponzi and scam. So I mean, despite the shall we say,

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<v Speaker 1>measured enthusiasm about the possibility of investing more, it seems

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<v Speaker 1>that there's also a degree of concern about the robustness

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<v Speaker 1>of this ecosi them and Filana. One of the things

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<v Speaker 1>that we started to observe, in addition to a d

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<v Speaker 1>percent increase in the price of Devote over the past

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<v Speaker 1>couple of days, is as bitcoin is both you know,

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<v Speaker 1>quote unquote boring, but also other elements in crypto. The

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<v Speaker 1>more the bigger and more traditional tokens are providing less

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<v Speaker 1>and less of a hedge, we are starting to see

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<v Speaker 1>people look for alpha elsewhere, right, and in some cases

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<v Speaker 1>that might be the meme coins. In some cases it

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<v Speaker 1>might be defy. Do you think we're at a point

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<v Speaker 1>in crypto where folks start to chase like yields at

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<v Speaker 1>any costs, no matter the risk profile. I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 1>because so I've been talking to people about this recently

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<v Speaker 1>because bitcoin has been so quote unquote boring. So the

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<v Speaker 1>question is whereas over the last couple of years, you

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<v Speaker 1>could implement any number of wild trading strategies and you

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<v Speaker 1>could go there if you are a super high risk,

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<v Speaker 1>high adrenaline person, you could wait into the space and

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<v Speaker 1>actually make a lot of money very quickly if you

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<v Speaker 1>knew what you were doing, if you knew how to

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<v Speaker 1>trade some of these these strategies. And so now the

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<v Speaker 1>question is what are people doing if volatility has come

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<v Speaker 1>way down where you have comparisons to the stock market

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<v Speaker 1>and on some days you have Bitcoin just like wavering

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<v Speaker 1>around a certain level and stocks just going like nuts

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<v Speaker 1>all the time. And you see a lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>making that comparison and saying, well, crypto is now less volatile.

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<v Speaker 1>And then also we just have not really had a

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<v Speaker 1>catalyst that's helped prices breakout upwards. We had an announcement

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<v Speaker 1>from black Rock where they had a partnership with coin

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<v Speaker 1>coin base, the crypto exchange, and prices basically did nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>So even this huge, huge announcement wasn't able to shake

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<v Speaker 1>things out of the sort of dul drums that that

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen. So I have been asking people like, how

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<v Speaker 1>are you making money now? Some are, you know, utilizing

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<v Speaker 1>sort of sort of traditional strategies where and they see

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin prices go down, they waited in and they buy

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<v Speaker 1>around seventeen or eighteen thousand. But then also you have

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<v Speaker 1>people implementing like different options strategies and for some that's working,

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<v Speaker 1>and and there are other strategies like marketing initial strategies,

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<v Speaker 1>these like weird wonky things that people out there just

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<v Speaker 1>looking to find ways to to make things a bit

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<v Speaker 1>more exciting. We'll be right back with more from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Reports of Aldonna Harrick and senior editor from Markets, Kasha Klimasenska. Kasha,

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<v Speaker 1>going back to the word bubble, right, going back to

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<v Speaker 1>the word bubble, you know, risk was there about the

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<v Speaker 1>same size as the word value. And the way that

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<v Speaker 1>word clouds or word bubbles work is you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like match the size of the thing to

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<v Speaker 1>the number of responses. But one of the ones that

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<v Speaker 1>was kind of still up there was gambling. So it

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<v Speaker 1>does seem like there's still a perception, especially among institutional investors,

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<v Speaker 1>that even if the volatility is reduced, the risk profile

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<v Speaker 1>of crypto overall is still high. Do you do you

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<v Speaker 1>think that's a fair characterization of the findings. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>that's kind of what we were trying to find out

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<v Speaker 1>with this fall, and I actually going out of it.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure I got the answer because you know, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>the gambling is there, but again, you know, it's also

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<v Speaker 1>a palsy and future. I think it's kind of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>gambling is still award that is associated with it's going

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<v Speaker 1>but um, and I can't feel then I might have

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<v Speaker 1>a different opinion opinion, but I think it has been

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<v Speaker 1>gradually going away over the last year, and the more

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<v Speaker 1>there's regulation and putting crypto into the main stream that

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<v Speaker 1>the more the gambling aspect will will go away. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's also I think because this year overall, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is

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<v Speaker 1>the year of risk off right and going with the safest.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the best bad you could have made this

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<v Speaker 1>year would have been too bet on the dollar, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, imagine that. Ask my grandma and she would

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:11.640
<v Speaker 1>have told you that it's not a risky that at all.

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:14.480
<v Speaker 1>So I think I guess that's a question that we

0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:16.520
<v Speaker 1>have to ask again three months from now and we'll

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:21.080
<v Speaker 1>see what people say. Indeed, Um, two other questions that

0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:25.880
<v Speaker 1>you did ask in the survey were around the flippening,

0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:30.280
<v Speaker 1>which is frankly, let's be clear, this is a terrible word,

0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.960
<v Speaker 1>but what that word refers to is the idea that ether,

0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.600
<v Speaker 1>which is the second largest token by market value, could

0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:41.200
<v Speaker 1>overtake Bitcoin. And you know, I think it's like only

0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:44.160
<v Speaker 1>a third of those polled in the surveys that they

0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:46.880
<v Speaker 1>think the flippening could happen in the next two years,

0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 1>which is about the same that folks got in July.

0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.240
<v Speaker 1>And you know, you there was also this lovely quote

0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.360
<v Speaker 1>in the story did you get this one as well?

0:13:56.360 --> 0:14:00.960
<v Speaker 1>Build on a possibly for sure um from Victoria Green

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.040
<v Speaker 1>of the Squared Private Wealth, which said, it's almost like

0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:06.560
<v Speaker 1>a religion. If you believe, you will always believe, no

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.120
<v Speaker 1>matter the price or the headwinds. And cash is just

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.240
<v Speaker 1>on that note, a question for you, are there any

0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 1>other asset classes that you or the folks on Markets

0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.680
<v Speaker 1>Life cover that have this like similar grounding and belief

0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:21.560
<v Speaker 1>rather than say fundamentals. Oh yeah, that's a good question.

0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.040
<v Speaker 1>I would say probably not. I mean, you know, most

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.400
<v Speaker 1>of the faults that we talked to every day, they

0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 1>do look at fundamentals and data all the time, right,

0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:32.600
<v Speaker 1>That's that's all They live in the world of excels

0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:36.480
<v Speaker 1>and spreadsheets. But yeah, I would definitely give it to Bitcoin.

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:40.680
<v Speaker 1>They they built quite a brand. Um. Nothing seems to

0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:44.400
<v Speaker 1>be able to take it away, even this boring range

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:47.000
<v Speaker 1>that it is trading in right now. And that's also

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.120
<v Speaker 1>why you have where it's like flippening in October and

0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:53.560
<v Speaker 1>all these different memes, and it's basically like everybody has

0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 1>their own lexicon within the space because it's a little

0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.360
<v Speaker 1>tight knit community and they speak with one another, and

0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:01.400
<v Speaker 1>then you have these words sort of crop up or

0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:04.480
<v Speaker 1>or be sort of made out of thin air, right,

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:06.720
<v Speaker 1>and because it's a way of identifying that you're part

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>of the in group. Terrific. Well, Casha, maybe we will

0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.280
<v Speaker 1>see you in three months, I hope. So all right,

0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:15.240
<v Speaker 1>thank you for being on. Appreciate you both, Thank you,

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:19.760
<v Speaker 1>Thank you. You can find more of their reporting on

0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:22.680
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Terminal, on Bloomberg dot com and on Twitter.

0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.640
<v Speaker 1>Vildonna is at Vildonna Harrick. That's v I L D

0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.960
<v Speaker 1>E N A H A g R I C. And

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:34.400
<v Speaker 1>Kasha is k Klimashinska. That's the letter K and then

0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:43.160
<v Speaker 1>K L I M A s I N S k Hi.

0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 1>It's Dusta and the Bloomberg Crypto podcast team. It's been

0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:50.120
<v Speaker 1>a dramatic week in crypto with the sudden troubles of

0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:54.120
<v Speaker 1>sand Bankman Freed's ftx dot Com prompting a bailout offer

0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:58.240
<v Speaker 1>from its biggest rival, Binance Holdings, only for the deal

0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 1>to fall through. We'll have the latest on the deal

0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:04.080
<v Speaker 1>that wasn't and what it means for investors on the

0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:11.320
<v Speaker 1>next This week in Crypto, This is Bloomberg Crypto, a

0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:14.800
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0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:33.400
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0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:37.480
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0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:41.120
<v Speaker 1>Faruk and Sharon Barriro. Our associate producers are Ty Butler

0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:44.760
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0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:50.320
<v Speaker 1>Original music by Leo Sidran. I'm Stacy Marie Schmal We'll

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