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Speaker 1: Happy Friday, guys, what's up? Welcome in Jinno. Episode of

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice Podcast with me Matt Perrault at Sports Talk.

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Speaker 1: Matt to follow me on Twitter. This podcast being brought

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Speaker 1: percent savings. Now, before we get to the picks, we

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Speaker 1: went two to oh yesterday in Major League Baseball the

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Speaker 1: hedge betor wake Forest. What a game to nothing. I'm

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Speaker 1: glad we hedged. LSU wins the game on a walk

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Speaker 1: off to run home run. Unbelievable baseball game, Florida versus

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Speaker 1: versus LSU. We have that plus four thirty five bet

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit on LSU. I kind of

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Speaker 1: wish I had more on it now, to be quite honest,

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Speaker 1: because it's making hedging a little more difficult here against Florida.

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Speaker 1: But it's mine one ten on both sides. So we're

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Speaker 1: gonna hedge here with Florida a bit. So I'll explain

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Speaker 1: more a little bit as to what I'm gonna do

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Speaker 1: for the Florida series in the College Word series, which

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Speaker 1: starts tomorrow. Got two baseball bets for us here today

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Speaker 1: to give you guys on this Friday. But before we

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Speaker 1: so here's what we're doing for Florida. We have a

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Speaker 1: half unit, so make it easy. We win two point

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Speaker 1: two units. If LSU wins, we've already hedged back. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So we have Tennessee, we missed on that, so we're

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Speaker 1: down a half a unit right now. We bet wake

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Speaker 1: half a unit, right down another half a unit, so

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Speaker 1: now we're down one unit. Okay, so if LSU wins,

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Speaker 1: we're up one point two units. Now. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to cut too deep into the profit potential, but they

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Speaker 1: also don't want to ride entirely in LSU because their

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Speaker 1: stud is not going to pitch until maybe Game three,

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Speaker 1: and even in Game three it'll be on three days rest.

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Speaker 1: He threw what one hundred and twenty pitches last night.

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Speaker 1: He was unbelievable, But you got to get there. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So I get the decision to leave him out there,

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Speaker 1: run him out there in the eighth inning. I understand

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Speaker 1: that with Paul Skurrns, I understand all that, but it

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Speaker 1: does put us in a tough spot here because Florida

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Speaker 1: has been waiting rested, didn't play Thursday, not going to

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Speaker 1: play Friday, they play SATURDAYORDA has a big advantage. So

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Speaker 1: I'm concerned about LSU just from a pitching staff standpoint.

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Speaker 1: So I think we got a hedge. Okay, we gotta

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Speaker 1: go minus one ten, zero point five to five units

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Speaker 1: down to win a half a unit on Florida to

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Speaker 1: win the series. Now LSU wins, that's awesome, Okay, we're profitable.

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Speaker 1: LSU doesn't win, it's a losing experiment, but we can

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Speaker 1: make it up later in the series. Okay, as we

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Speaker 1: watch pitching matchups and we watch may happen, I think

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Speaker 1: the series good does go three games. So the winner

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Speaker 1: of Game one I think most likely loses Game two,

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Speaker 1: so we'll see what happens with that. But I think

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Speaker 1: there'll be a chance to at least make up that

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Speaker 1: other half unit or maybe be profitable for the series.

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Speaker 1: But I think it will be stupid not to jump

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Speaker 1: on it because whoever wins game one will go to

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Speaker 1: a monster favorite. Okay, so if LSU wins game one,

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Speaker 1: the Florida hedge is gone. If Florida wins Game one,

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Speaker 1: you're not getting minus one. Ten will be probably two

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Speaker 1: fifty on Florida to the College World Series. So I

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Speaker 1: think we have to just from a money management standpoint,

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Speaker 1: we have to take Florida. If you bet the LSU future,

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Speaker 1: I bet the Tennessee future, thinking you got a bet

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Speaker 1: a half unit point five to five units down at

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Speaker 1: minus one ten, DraftKings everywhere else is pretty much a

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Speaker 1: universal of that number on Florida to win the College

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Speaker 1: World Series. It starts tomorrow on Saturday. That's bet number one,

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Speaker 1: all right, Bet number two. Reds and the Braves, how

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Speaker 1: about this game. Reds are absolutely red hot. They've won

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Speaker 1: eight straight. Sorry, the Braves have won eight straight. The

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Speaker 1: Reds of one eleven straight. They were off yesterday the

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Speaker 1: Braves played Braves one five to one, beating the Fieldelphia

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Speaker 1: Phillies in extra innings. More on that in a second.

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Speaker 1: You have Luke Weaver against AJ Smith Sover. This is

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Speaker 1: a fade on Luke Weaver, but Luke Weaver has won

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Speaker 1: four straight starts. Because of the bullpen and the offense

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Speaker 1: in late game situations, he's not been good at all. Well.

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Speaker 1: Luke Weaver at home has a seven point two seven

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Speaker 1: ERA twenty one earned runs in twenty six innings pitched

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Speaker 1: against this Braves offense. Yikes. Fifteen earned runs given up

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Speaker 1: in the three starts in the month of June for

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Speaker 1: Luke Weaver not good. I don't think when you look

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Speaker 1: at his numbers and you're like, well, you know, he's

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Speaker 1: one four straight starts, I don't want to go into

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Speaker 1: the late innings because the Reds actually have some mojo

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Speaker 1: in magic when they've won eleven straight. So I'm a

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Speaker 1: little bit concerned with this first five run line for

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Speaker 1: the Braves. Okay, A J. Smith's sover is making his

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Speaker 1: first start on the road. Reds haven't seen him. Okay,

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Speaker 1: might take him two times through the order to really

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Speaker 1: get after him, which means maybe the sixth inning is

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Speaker 1: when they really touch up a J. Smith sawver So

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Speaker 1: maybe or Shover. So maybe there's a chance here just

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Speaker 1: to have a one run lead, a tie we lose. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so tie we lose, but run line laying the half

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Speaker 1: a run on the Braves. I think it's a good

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Speaker 1: decision here, given that it's Luke Weaver who might get

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Speaker 1: absolutely torched here by the Braves offense. But maybe the

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Speaker 1: Reds torches the Braves bullpen. I don't want to get

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Speaker 1: into that. The total ten and a half, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I lean towards the over, but that's a lot of

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Speaker 1: runs here. The Braves are three to oh so far

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Speaker 1: this year against the Reds both all three of the

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Speaker 1: games were in Atlanta, five to four, six seven, five

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Speaker 1: to four, all wins for the Reds. On the run line,

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Speaker 1: So if you go on for the game, yeah scares me, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to bet the game the full game

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Speaker 1: run line. Rather bet this in terms of a first

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Speaker 1: five run line at minus one twenty eight. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: one point two to eight units down on this Braves

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Speaker 1: run line half a unit for minus one twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: Second bet, and the only other bet I want to

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Speaker 1: make tonight here in Major League Baseball. The Phillies are

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Speaker 1: taking on the Mets. Now. It's Walker going to the

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Speaker 1: hill for the Phillies. Walker at home is a two

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Speaker 1: point twenty five ERA. He's been great three to ohero

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Speaker 1: at home so far this season, opposing batting average of

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Speaker 1: one fifty seven at home, eight earned runs in thirty

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Speaker 1: two innings worth of work. He's been absolutely dynamic here.

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Speaker 1: Phillies need to get their butt in gear here. They

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Speaker 1: lost yesterday. Like I mentioned to the Braves, Phillies are

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Speaker 1: thirty eight and thirty six. They're ten games back of Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: The Mets are thirty four and forty. They are fourteen

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Speaker 1: games back. They've lost two games in a row. The

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Speaker 1: Mets have and lost six of the last ten. Phillies

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Speaker 1: have won those seven of their last ten playing some

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Speaker 1: better baseball. You though they did lose yesterday. They're zero

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Speaker 1: to three against the Mets this year. Haven't beaten them yet.

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Speaker 1: Phillies need to get a w here. It's only minus

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Speaker 1: one fourteen on the Phillies to win this game today.

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Speaker 1: And I think when you have Weaver going, I think

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Speaker 1: you have a pretty good pitching matchup Senga going for

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Speaker 1: the Mets, who hasn't been awful. But the ray on

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Speaker 1: the road is four point seven eight, imposing batting average

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Speaker 1: to two forty eight, seventeen earned runs and thirty eight

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Speaker 1: innings are pitched on the road two to zero, two nothing,

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Speaker 1: sorry to nothing. Win. He did pitch against the Phillies

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Speaker 1: earlier this season, and one of those wins for the Mets,

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Speaker 1: it was Senga who started. He was good, seven innings,

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Speaker 1: no earned runs. But the Phillies have seen him. That's good, okay,

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Speaker 1: so they've seen him. Not any big mystery here. They

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Speaker 1: know what the guy did to him in New York.

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Speaker 1: Phillies money line to win the game minus one fourteen,

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Speaker 1: one point one four units down on that, okay. So

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Speaker 1: Florida on a hedge for zero point five to five

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Speaker 1: units at minus one ten to win the College World

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Speaker 1: Series on the LSU on the LSU hedge half the

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Speaker 1: unit or aero point five to five units down on

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Speaker 1: that one point two eight units down on the Braves

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Speaker 1: run line. First five here laying half a run against

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Speaker 1: the Reds, and we're taking the Phillies on the money

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Speaker 1: line at minus one fourteen to win their first game

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Speaker 1: against the New York Mets. Happy Friday. MINA is Matt Paroli.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Each summery morning, it is The Diligence Podcast, always being

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Speaker 1: brought to you by olmahstanks dot com