1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 2: In the Nation's capital. Welcome to Friday. 7 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 3: You made it to the threshold of the weekend, and 8 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 3: we have a lot to cover, even without lawmakers in town. 9 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 3: This has been an incredibly busy cycle and we're going 10 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 3: to start with an eye on the campaign trail because 11 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 3: here we are, it's South Carolina time. It did seem 12 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 3: a long ways off back in Iowa and New Hampshire, 13 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 3: but it's time to go. And as we have been 14 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 3: telling you, it's not looking great for Nikki Haley in 15 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 3: her home state. We're going to connect with Christian Hall 16 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 3: in just a moment on that he's on the ground 17 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 3: for us in South Carolina. But we have to take 18 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: a broader look at the calendar here. Next Tuesday, the 19 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 3: Michigan primary. It's not a question of who's going to win. 20 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 3: Joe Biden will be the Democratic winner in Michigan, but 21 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 3: there are questions about the margin, with a lot of 22 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 3: concern by Arab American voters in Michigan about what's happening 23 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 3: right now in Gaza. Then we go to the end 24 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:16,199 Speaker 3: of the week with what appears to be the start 25 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 3: of a government shutdown. You didn't hear it from me, 26 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 3: what do I know? But lawmakers we're talking to don't 27 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 3: seem to have a path. There might be some kind 28 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 3: of an agreement that emerges this weekend, but it's entirely 29 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 3: likely we will have at least a brief shutdown, and 30 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 3: then we flip into the following week with the State 31 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 3: of the Union and Super Tuesday. You're ready for all 32 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 3: of this. We're going to go through it together, and 33 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 3: we start right now as I met you with Christian Hall, 34 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 3: who is in South Carolina for tomorrow's primary. Christian, it's 35 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 3: great to have you. I know you're bombing around the 36 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 3: state right now, joining us by phone. It looks like 37 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 3: Nicki Haley loses between somewhere between twenty and thirty points. 38 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 3: I don't want to act like I know what's going 39 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 3: to happen, though, tell us what you're hearing on the ground. 40 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 4: I mean, Joe, it is really fascinating to see how 41 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 4: Nicki Haley, a daughter of South Carolina, born and bred 42 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 4: in the state. She was governor, and she was elected 43 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 4: twice by voters in the state of South Carolina, a 44 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 4: very popular governor, and just to see her standing in 45 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 4: the polls, it is striking. I've been following Nicky Haley 46 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 4: from South Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, and the tone is 47 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 4: very different here in South Carolina. I was at a 48 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 4: rally yesterday and two people, two Trump supporters, were pulled 49 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 4: out of the audience as I was arriving. I mean, 50 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 4: there were Trump supporters on every corner surrounding the event 51 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 4: with you know, sign saying go Trump. So it's just 52 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 4: really interesting to see Nicky Haley being received like this 53 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 4: in her own state. 54 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 3: It's remarkable, great description, Christian. Our headline says it all 55 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 3: on the story today South Carolina to Haley, thanks for everything. 56 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 3: We prefer Trump. What happened to her in South Carolina? 57 00:02:57,680 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 3: Or is it simply a maga story? 58 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 4: I think more than anything, it's about how Donald Trump's 59 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 4: control over the GOP has really changed the electorate. I mean, 60 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 4: just a few years ago, Nicki Haley was seen as 61 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 4: this rising star on the fringe of the Tea Party, 62 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 4: and there was so much excitement about her and the 63 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 4: future of the GOP. And I think the bigger story 64 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 4: here is just how it is amazing how Donald Trump 65 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 4: came into the GOP and basically made it his own, 66 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 4: and a lot of the establishment figures are now, you know, 67 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 4: backing Donald Trump. 68 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 2: Quite remarkable. 69 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 3: I'm guessing this is going to be an early call tomorrow, Christian. 70 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 3: The polls that we've seen, as I mentioned, if you 71 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 3: look at composite, a composite of all the polls out there, 72 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 3: show Donald Trump up by twenty plus points in South Carolina. 73 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 2: I'm guessing this as an early night. 74 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 3: Do they both hang out, do the traditional victory concession speeches? 75 00:03:57,520 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 2: What's your expectation. 76 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 4: I think that we're going to still see that. I mean, 77 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 4: I think for Nicky Haley, she's going to try to 78 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 4: show this sign of strength, right, and that she has 79 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 4: what it takes to eventually win the nomination in November 80 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 4: and take on Donald Trump and in the near future 81 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 4: make it through Super Tuesday. You know, so South Carolina 82 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 4: is going to be really important for her to show 83 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 4: donors that she has what it takes to continue this 84 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 4: race and that she's a good investment for them. I 85 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 4: think for Donald Trump, he's going to start turning away 86 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 4: from focusing on Nicky Haley, you know. I think that 87 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 4: he wants to change this race from a primary to 88 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 4: a general election as fast as he can. He wants 89 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 4: to set his sights on President Joe Biden and what 90 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 4: he sees is Joe Biden's failures and that's where he 91 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 4: wants to move and I think South Carolina. Getting a 92 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 4: significant win in South Carolina is going to be what 93 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 4: he needs to do that. 94 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:55,039 Speaker 2: Well. 95 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 3: This is really fascinating stuff because you could argue he's 96 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 3: been waging a general election care campaign at the same 97 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 3: time as sparring with Nikki Haley ever since they left 98 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,719 Speaker 3: New Hampshire. But we'll be tuned into what's happening tomorrow 99 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 3: at Christian Hall. It's great to know that you're there 100 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 3: on the ground for Bloomberg here and keep your eyes 101 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 3: on the terminal and of course Bloomberg dot com for 102 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 3: analysis will be talking Monday about results from South Carolina, 103 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 3: which should be interesting here headline on the terminal more 104 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 3: to hold Russia accountable on navalney will come. That's from 105 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 3: John Kirby at the White House speaking for the National 106 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 3: Security Team there and a pretty interesting story that we're 107 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 3: going to dig into a little bit later this hour 108 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 3: with Bloomberg's Jenny Welch. Sanctions rolled out today, formerly a 109 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 3: new package against Russia following the death of Alexi Navolny. 110 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 3: But how about what's happening on the Moon today? This 111 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 3: is remarkable stuff. For the first time since nineteen seventy two, 112 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 3: the US is back on the Moon. It's an amazing story, 113 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 3: knowing that there was already one failed attempt by a 114 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 3: rival company, in this case intuitive machines, who says you 115 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: can't make money in space. You saw this stock today, 116 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 3: do you hear Charlie talk about it? Lunr up twenty 117 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 3: five percent after they made it happen six twenty three 118 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 3: pm yesterday, landing a robotic spacecraft on the Moon, becoming 119 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 3: the first private firm to pull this off, to place 120 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 3: a vehicle intact on the lunar surface. And it was 121 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 3: made in the USA. We're joined now to talk about 122 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 3: it by Leroy Chow. Pretty fantastic former commander of the 123 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 3: International Space Station, of course, a long time NASA astronaut, 124 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:32,279 Speaker 3: spent two hundred and twenty nine days in space across 125 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 3: four missions, founder a co founder of the CEO of 126 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 3: One Orbit Leroid. 127 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 2: It's great to have you back on Bloomberg. Good to 128 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 2: see you. I just wonder if you can frame the 129 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: significance of this more than fifty years later. 130 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 5: Ah, yeah, you bet. 131 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 6: Great to be back with you guys, And yeah, it 132 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 6: was quite a historic moment yesterday when the Intuitive Machines 133 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 6: lander excuse me, extuded machines landers successfully touched down on 134 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 6: the surface of the Moon. You pointed out it's been 135 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 6: over fifty years since the US has put anything on 136 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 6: the Moon, and this is the very first time a 137 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 6: commercial company has successfully created a spacecraft and landed on 138 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 6: the Moon. So this is a big, big deal. As 139 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 6: you pointed out, other people have tried and failed. Other 140 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 6: nations recently, including Russia, tried and failed to put a 141 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 6: lander on the Moon, and so for this company to 142 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 6: succeed really says a lot for their engineering, the talented 143 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 6: folks working there, and I think the future is going 144 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 6: to be bright. It's conducting a number of different experiments 145 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 6: now and measurements and will continue to do so. The 146 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 6: other significant piece of this is that they landed near 147 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 6: the south Pole. 148 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 7: Of the Moon. 149 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 6: Only Thridia has done that, and that was recent as well. 150 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 2: Talk to us why that's significant. 151 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 3: Obviously, the public private partnership is very real and space 152 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 3: Elon Musk has proven that to us SpaceX with a 153 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 3: long history working with NASA. But this expands the picture 154 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 3: into your point, it's bringing us to a different place 155 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 3: on the Moon than we've ever been. 156 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 5: That's right. 157 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 6: So NASA is interested in the South Pole region because 158 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 6: it appears to be abundant with ice water, particularly down 159 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 6: in some of the craters like Shackleton Crater, which never 160 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 6: sees the sun, so the temperatures are very low there 161 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 6: and that's where NASA will probably want to establish a 162 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 6: lunar base in the future for sustained exploration of the Moon. 163 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 6: The reason water is important. Of course, we need water 164 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 6: for life. You would be nice to have and not 165 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 6: have to bring all your water with you on your expeditions. 166 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 6: But beyond that, looking into the future, water can also 167 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 6: be separated into hydrogen and oxygen, creating the potential the 168 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 6: potential for future rocket fuels, right, and so a lot 169 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 6: of exciting things happening there. Also, even though we're on 170 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 6: the South Pole, we are in a region where it's 171 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 6: always facing the Earth. That is the Moon base, and 172 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 6: the spacecraft always see the Earth, and that means you 173 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 6: have uninterrupted communication between the vehicle or your future future 174 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 6: lab and the mission control center. 175 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 2: This is incredible. 176 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 3: Commander Chow is speaking to our future here to go 177 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 3: beyond the Moon, of course, and I'd love to hear 178 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 3: you talk about that, Leroy, the Moon as not only 179 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 3: a research station, but a gas station, away station on 180 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 3: the way to other planets. 181 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 6: Well, that's right, and so liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen or 182 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 6: rocket fuel, they can be rocket propellant. It was certainly 183 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 6: used on the Space Shuttle for many, many years as 184 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,320 Speaker 6: the main propellant for the main engines, the liquid hydrogen 185 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 6: liquid oxygen, But of course those were loaded here on 186 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 6: the Earth. If we can launch empty spacecraft or nearly 187 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 6: empty spacecraft and refuel them in space, or even near 188 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 6: the Moon, or even on the Moon, then we've created 189 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 6: the potential to go much farther into space. So current 190 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 6: architectures don't envision or don't rely on taking the water 191 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 6: ice from the Moon and converting it into rocket propellant, 192 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 6: but it certainly is something that's possible for the future. 193 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:04,319 Speaker 2: Fascinating. 194 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 3: This lander here, specifically from Intuitive Machines, will someday have 195 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 3: people on board now that we've proven its ability to 196 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 3: land safely as an empty spacecraft. How soon will that 197 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,559 Speaker 3: happen where we have a private mission putting human beings 198 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 3: on the Moon. 199 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 6: Well, as you know you mentioned SpaceX, they're not sitting 200 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 6: still working very hard to develop the and prove out 201 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 6: the starship and the Falcon super heavy booster being designed 202 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 6: as a fully reusable system. In fact, Elon Musk says 203 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 6: one day a version of the Starship will take around 204 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 6: one hundred people at a time to Mars. 205 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 5: In the more near term. 206 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 6: SpaceX is one of the contractors that NASA has brought 207 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 6: on board to create a lander to land humans back 208 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 6: on the surface of the Moon based on their starship 209 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 6: technology of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin is part of another 210 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 6: group that was also receiving NASA funding and support to 211 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 6: create another And so you know, this kind of the 212 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 6: idea is you don't put all your eggs in one basket. 213 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:07,320 Speaker 6: But this new model that created the Intuitive Machines lander, 214 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 6: of course no humans on board, but proves that this 215 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 6: is a great model and it works, and so very 216 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 6: exciting as you point out, to look to the future 217 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 6: to hopefully sooner other than later, getting humans back onto 218 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 6: the surface of the Moon. 219 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 3: We've made the point a couple of times, Commander, that 220 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 3: this was not a first attempt. We saw a number 221 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 3: of failed attempts, most recently just last month. Actually I 222 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 3: forgot this was just as recently as January. This company, 223 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 3: Astrobotics lander had an engine failure just after reaching space. 224 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 2: What did this group do right? 225 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 5: Right? 226 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 6: And so unfortunately Astrobotics vehicle once they got into orbit, 227 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 6: there appeared to be some kind of a valving problem 228 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 6: or any way, they had a burst in a propellant 229 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 6: line or a propellant tank, so they didn't have the 230 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 6: fuel to make it down to the Moon. They did 231 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 6: manage to salvage a little bit from their mission, but 232 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 6: you know, of course, did not land. So intuitive machines 233 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 6: did differently. I don't know the persit, you know the 234 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 6: precise designs, of course, but clearly they didn't suffer any 235 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 6: kind of failure like that. They did have a few 236 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 6: hairy moments there as they were getting ready to come down. 237 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 6: Their radar system, which is arranging radar telling them the 238 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 6: distance to the Moon. They were having some issues with that, 239 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 6: and they actually were able to create a big software 240 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 6: patch very quickly, test it, get it on board, and 241 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 6: they use an experiment a light ar a laser ranging system, 242 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 6: not unlike some of the ones that the police might 243 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 6: use to try to give you a ticket here on Earth. 244 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 5: But that was just to be an experiment. 245 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 6: But they use that for this operation to do the 246 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 6: ranging and successfully landed on the Moon with an experimental 247 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 6: piece of hardware. 248 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 2: Fascinating. 249 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 3: You know, there's a real debate here on Earth about 250 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 3: where we should be spending our money and whether it's 251 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 3: ethical or right to be spending money on research in 252 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 3: space when there are people starving here on our planet. 253 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 3: We've been hearing this since before the Apollo program. 254 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 2: Commander. When you see. 255 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 3: The marriage of government and private enterprise working together here. 256 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 2: Does that change the dynamic when it comes to money. 257 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 6: Oh, yes, absolutely it does. And when we get into 258 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 6: the numbers and the budget, if you look at NASA, 259 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 6: except for the Apollo program, since the Apollo program and 260 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 6: certainly for the last several decades, NASA's funding has generally 261 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 6: been much less than one percent of the federal budget. 262 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 6: And so when you say, wow, we've got all these 263 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 6: social problems here on Earth. That's all absolutely true. That 264 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 6: takes a huge portion of the national budget every year. 265 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 6: And so if we took that less than one percent 266 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 6: that we're spending on NASA, and look what we get 267 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 6: for it. All all the rovers that we have on Mars, 268 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,959 Speaker 6: the research work, the great discoveries in our solar system, 269 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 6: on the moons of Saturn, the moons of Jupiter, not 270 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 6: to mention the Human space flight program and International Space Station. 271 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 6: All the people those programs employed. We're going to fire 272 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 6: them all, put them out a lot of a job. 273 00:13:57,760 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 6: The contractors, they're all going to go out of business. 274 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 6: I've got all these unemployed people. So who could save 275 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 6: that less than one percent and put that tiny drop 276 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 6: in the big bucket of spending for social program So 277 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 6: it's a matter of balance, it's a matter of making 278 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 6: sure that you do have the right proportions put into 279 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 6: different buckets. Everyone's going to have their own opinion on that, 280 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 6: But at the end of the day, I think the 281 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 6: positives that come out of the space program are much 282 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 6: much outweigh the negatives. 283 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 2: So when you're going back, well. 284 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 6: I've been out in Assen now for quite a number 285 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 6: of years, and so they're not going to be calling 286 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 6: me back. They've got plenty of qualified people in line. YEA, 287 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 6: ready and upping at the bit to go, and I'm 288 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 6: going to be here on the sidelines cheering them on. 289 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 2: Well, you get to buy a ticket now, that's the 290 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 2: whole point, Commander. 291 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 3: It's great to see you. Thank you for coming back 292 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 3: to talk to us here on Bloomberg. Always fun to 293 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 3: spend time with Leroy Chow, former NASA astronaut with an 294 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 3: American made lander on the surface of the Moon today. 295 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 3: Talk a lot about the depressing news here on Earth, 296 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 3: but it's a pleasure to spend some time talking about 297 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 3: something with a bit more optimism. We'll have more coming 298 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 3: up with Bloomberg's Jenny Welch on Balance of Power. 299 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ken 300 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enroud 301 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: Outo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 302 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 303 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 304 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 8: Joe. We entered this Friday knowing what news was going 305 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 8: to be coming that we were going to get a 306 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 8: fresh package of sanctions from the Biden administration. They telegraphed 307 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 8: this extensively, and there were a lot of entities sanctioned here, 308 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 8: more than five hundred people in entities, including a payment 309 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 8: system in Russia pressuring their state on atomic energy company 310 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 8: Ross Tom. But was also significant is what was not 311 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 8: on this list, not going after the Russian metals industry, 312 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 8: not going after energy. And I'm sure political calculations here 313 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 8: at home about what that could do to the US 314 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 8: economy into inflation, factor into that. 315 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 3: It's interesting here the biggest one day sanctions package after 316 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 3: what we were told was the biggest ever round of 317 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 3: sanctions against an economy the size of Russia. And I look, 318 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 3: there are still questions about the impact or not that 319 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 3: these sanctions have had already naming names, I guess is 320 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 3: one thing, like you said, five hundred people in entities, 321 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 3: but whether it changes behavior, brings people to the negotiating table. 322 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 3: These are big questions right now as Ukraine starts to 323 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 3: run out of time. 324 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 8: Absolutely, and it's a question we can pose to General 325 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 8: Mark Kimmitt, who is joining us now in Washington, retired 326 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 8: Brigadier general in the US Army, and of course former 327 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 8: Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs. General. Always 328 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 8: great to see you here in the studio. So Joe 329 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 8: asks the right question, we have new sanctions, will they 330 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 8: do what? Others to this point have not changed the 331 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 8: behavior of Vladimir Putin. 332 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 7: Probably not. Vladimir Putin is in a war to win it. 333 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 7: He has put his economy on a mobilization for war. 334 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 7: There are no critical materials that I see being sanctioned 335 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 7: that would prevent him from being able to carry out 336 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 7: the war in Ukraine. 337 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 3: Okay, So the message we keep hearing is if you 338 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 3: want to send a real statement, fund fund the war 339 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 3: past the bill. There's sixty billion dollars on the table 340 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 3: here that doesn't seem to have a path on Capitol Hill. 341 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,640 Speaker 3: But without that, general, what are the options? 342 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 7: Well, first of all, let's be very clear. The issue 343 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 7: is no longer can we fund it? The issue is 344 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 7: now to the point that, after two years of war, 345 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 7: can we make it. Let's take artillery shells for example. 346 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 7: We only have the production capability in our industrial base 347 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 7: to produce twenty eight thousand rounds per month, and that's 348 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 7: a doubling from where it was. This time last year. 349 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 7: We hope in twenty twenty five to be able to 350 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 7: produce one hundred thousand artillery rounds per month. The Russians 351 00:17:53,760 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 7: some days fire sixty thousand rounds at the Ukrainians. We 352 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:04,880 Speaker 7: just have such a shriveled military industrial base that we 353 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 7: don't have the capability and neither do our European allies 354 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 7: to meet the demand of the Ukrainian battlefield. 355 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 8: Well, but it's Russia's industrial base that the Treasury Department 356 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 8: has said they're really trying to target here. In fact, 357 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 8: Wally Adiemo, that under Secretary was on Bloomberg earlier today 358 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 8: and had this to say, take a listen. 359 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 9: Important to remember that our objective remains the same, going 360 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,919 Speaker 9: after Russia's military industri sized complex and their ability to 361 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 9: earn money to prop up their economy and buy the 362 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 9: goods they need to fight the war they want. 363 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 2: What we're doing today. 364 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,880 Speaker 9: Is we are furthering those actions by going after companies 365 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 9: in Russia that are helping to build military equipment. 366 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 8: So they say that's their aim general, But how far 367 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 8: would the US have to go to hamper Russia's ability 368 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:57,119 Speaker 8: enough if our own ability is subpar as you're saying. 369 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that's critical in certain areas, maybe some 370 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 7: supply chain shortages that we can impose by the sanctions package, 371 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 7: perhaps on one or two types of systems, especially the 372 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 7: high tech equipment that they're using. You remember the beginning 373 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 7: of the war, how they were harvesting transistors from the battlefield. 374 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 7: But again going back to what's killing people on the battlefield, 375 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 7: what's creating PTSD in the Ukrainian soldiers. What is the 376 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 7: main focus of the war right now is lobbying old, 377 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 7: dumb artillery shells that are made of metal and gunpowder. 378 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 7: And I didn't see anything in the sanctions package that's 379 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 7: going to stop that, and I am concerned that that's 380 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,120 Speaker 7: what's going to bring this war to an end if 381 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 7: we're not able to figure out a path to go 382 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 7: around Frankly or industrial base. 383 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 3: Well, we know that Russia's getting artillery shells in part 384 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 3: from North Korea, right, that was some of the stuf 385 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 3: sent over there. With everything we just heard from Wali Adiyama, 386 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,719 Speaker 3: why didn't we do that two years ago of hampering 387 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 3: their weapons manufacturing would have been effective. 388 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 7: Well, it's interesting, I'm rehearsing an article that's in pre 389 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 7: publication and what I say is exactly that one of 390 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 7: our major problems was that we had the delusion of 391 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:26,639 Speaker 7: a short war. Somehow what we saw from Iraq and Afghanistan, 392 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 7: we had short periods of high intensity combat. But our 393 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 7: planners and our politicians never had had a failure of 394 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 7: imagination that anything like this could ever happened two years 395 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 7: conventional warfare, high intensity. It was never in any planner's plan, 396 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 7: it was never in any politicians funding package. And unfortunately, 397 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 7: I think we now need to wake up and recognize 398 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 7: that that's exactly how our adversaries are going to play us. 399 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 7: If they want to fight us, we'll do it. And 400 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 7: if we ever find ourselves fighting Russia, that's how we'll 401 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:04,879 Speaker 7: do it as well. 402 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 8: Well, it's Ukraine for now that finds itself actively fighting Russia. 403 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 8: And you point out that this has now been two 404 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 8: years of very active conflict. Will it remain so for 405 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,400 Speaker 8: the next year, for the next two years? Are we 406 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 8: just talking about a war of pure attrition here? 407 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 7: That's a good way to describe it. That's perhaps the 408 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,159 Speaker 7: medium case. The best case, of course, would be the 409 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 7: war ends for negotiations right away. The worst case would 410 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 7: be that no, in fact, these shortages give the Russians 411 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 7: the capability to break through those front lines of the 412 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 7: Ukrainians through their overwhelming supply capabilities and they're overwhelming troop numbers. 413 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 7: That's what I think is the lesson that we need 414 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,920 Speaker 7: to learn from Atavika, which is, if this keeps up, 415 00:21:55,440 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 7: maybe this World War one, like trench warfare, devolves into 416 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 7: a Russian breakthrough. 417 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 3: We spoke last evening with Poland's Foreign Minister, Radoslav Sikorski, 418 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 3: who was very serious about the lack of funding and 419 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 3: was going to deliver that message. He was on his 420 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 3: way to Washington last evening. He'll be meeting here this 421 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 3: weekend with the Secretary of State, and I'd love for 422 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 3: you to hear what he had to say about his 423 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 3: message to Capitol Hill. 424 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 2: Let's listen. 425 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 10: I'd like to appeal to Speaker Johnson, as a former 426 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 10: Speaker myself, yeah, and as the foreign Minister of Poland 427 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 10: and on behalf of all of the European Union. In fact, 428 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 10: please let democracy decide this issue. Please allow this Ukraine 429 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 10: supplemental to go to a vote, because otherwise, if you 430 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 10: preclude your commander in chief from doing what he wants 431 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 10: to do, which is to help Ukraine defend itself. Youth 432 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 10: credibility will be damaged. 433 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 3: That was a recurring message from him, American credibility. But 434 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,160 Speaker 3: will our allies in Europe think if we can't pull 435 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 3: this off this round at least? 436 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 7: Well, do you want the Trump answer or do you 437 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 7: want my answer? 438 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 8: Your answer, sir? 439 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 7: All right, Well let me give you the Trump answer. 440 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 7: For Trump would say, if they need that money so bad, 441 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 7: then maybe Poland can give it to us. The constant 442 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 7: lament from the United States since the founding of NATO 443 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 7: is that they are not stepping up to their own 444 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 7: national defense. And that's what President Trump will harp upon 445 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 7: if he is asked to reflect on what was just said. Again, 446 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 7: I want to go back to the issue that there 447 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 7: are no significant stockpiles of artillery rounds, and I'm using 448 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 7: that as a metaphor for the entire requirement package that 449 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 7: is needed for Ukraine. There is no storehouse right now 450 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,439 Speaker 7: where there are thousands and thousands of rounds ready to 451 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 7: be shipped if somebody pays for them. They don't exist. 452 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 7: There are those warehouses, but those warehouses hold those rounds 453 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 7: of ammunition needed for our war planners and for our 454 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 7: war plans in the China Pacific against the Russians for 455 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 7: American soldiers. So to use the old common expression, Joe 456 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 7: that you and I are familiar with, and maybe Katie, 457 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 7: we're out of schlitz when it comes to the available 458 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 7: do you know that artillery rounds that can rapidly be 459 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 7: sent over should a funding bill pass. 460 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 8: So I wonder what that then means though as to 461 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 8: the validity of the argument that you hear some Republicans 462 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 8: making that the US needs to be focusing on our 463 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 8: own national security, speaking specifically they are of the border. 464 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 8: But if we aren't investing in the defense industrial base 465 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 8: in order to manufacture this kind of stuff, not just 466 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,439 Speaker 8: for the purposes of sending for Ukraine, but getting that 467 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 8: firing up ready to go, is that actually threatening US 468 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:05,400 Speaker 8: national security by extension? 469 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 7: Well, first of all, this is not my bright idea. 470 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 7: This is not something that I came up with. This 471 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 7: is not me discovering something new. For decades, the people 472 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 7: that are focused on the US industrial base have been 473 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 7: telling Congress and have been telling military, we are seeing 474 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 7: our arsenal democracy, our capability to build the weapons that 475 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,200 Speaker 7: we need to defend this country against all enemies foreign 476 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 7: and domestic is drying up. We have one factory, one 477 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 7: factory that makes artillery tubes, cannon tubes, howitzer tubes. Those 478 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 7: things burn out after a couple of thousand rounds. And 479 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 7: even though the numbers are classified, the Wall Street Journal 480 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 7: says it's not a lot that are being made every year. 481 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,360 Speaker 7: Right now. The greatest need for them is in Ukraine. 482 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 7: They are burning out their artillery. So this is an 483 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 7: old problem. We have been whistling past the graveyard of 484 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 7: the military industrial base for so long, and perhaps Ukraine, 485 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 7: as tragic as that may be, is the canary in 486 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 7: the coal mine. 487 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 3: We're spending time with retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt bring 488 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 3: us to ground. In Ukraine, we're coming out of winter 489 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 3: at least at some point soon. That means they'll be 490 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 3: fighting in a mud bath. How does that change the strategy. 491 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,679 Speaker 7: Well, it doesn't change strategy at all. They're not going 492 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,439 Speaker 7: to fight in that mud bath. That is mother winter. 493 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 7: Mother winter has always been an advantage to the defender. 494 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 7: So I think it won't be till that mud bath 495 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 7: dries up that you're going to see one or both 496 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 7: sides try to get out of their trenches and push 497 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 7: through those front lines. But I think it's important to 498 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,920 Speaker 7: recognize that it is certainly the case that the Russians 499 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 7: have not just been sitting in those trenches lighting their fires. 500 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 7: They've been continuing to harden their defensive lines, putting out 501 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,199 Speaker 7: the mines, putting out the barbed wires, putting out the 502 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 7: obstacle belts, because they will not let the Ukrainians bust through. 503 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,199 Speaker 7: As I suspect it's classified, we don't know what the 504 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,679 Speaker 7: Ukrainians have been doing for fear of telling our enemy 505 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 7: what they're doing. I would hope they're doing the same thing. 506 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,400 Speaker 7: But what I'm seeing at Adavika, where the Russians are 507 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 7: able to at least make some measure of progress, I 508 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 7: hope that that's not a foretelling of what we're going 509 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 7: to see this spring. 510 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:42,360 Speaker 11: Well. 511 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,440 Speaker 8: In general, I want to return to something you said 512 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 8: a few minutes ago, when you were talking about the 513 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 8: different scenarios. You said, the best case scenario is talks 514 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 8: to end the war. That the war can end through talks. 515 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 8: Does that mean to say that there is no way 516 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 8: that Ukraine outright wins this war, that they can retake 517 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,880 Speaker 8: all of the territory lost from Russia. Regardless of whether 518 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 8: or not they receive the aid of the United States 519 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 8: or not. 520 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 7: Well, the most optimistic scenario is that they achieve exactly 521 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:12,679 Speaker 7: that they push the Russians out of Ukraine and Crimea, 522 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 7: and that the only talks they're having now or at 523 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 7: that time are about prisoner exchanges because the war is over. 524 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,679 Speaker 7: But Kailey, I think we've got to be reasonable at 525 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:28,639 Speaker 7: this point and recognize that Zelenski's war aims push the 526 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:34,439 Speaker 7: Russians out, restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine, restore Crimea 527 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 7: to the sovereign control of Ukraine. That's a very low 528 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 7: probability event in the next year or so. 529 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 3: So what are the chances that we're sitting here talking 530 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 3: about a third anniversary very. 531 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 7: High, short of diplomatic negotiations that find a middle ground 532 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 7: that will satisfy neither side. 533 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 3: Consider that, Kaili, when we talk about the debate here 534 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 3: in Washington for funding more than a year ahead, this 535 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 3: isn't going away anytime soon. 536 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 8: Well, and we could very well have a completely different 537 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 8: composition of government. 538 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 2: That's very true by then. 539 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 8: We don't know what will be in January twenty tours. 540 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 3: Soald Trump has said that he would end the war 541 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 3: within his first. 542 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 2: Twenty four hours, so he has. Indeed, we'll see about that. General. 543 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 7: Great to see you, Great to see you. I wish 544 00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 7: I had better news. 545 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 2: Mark Kimmick gives it to us straight. 546 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 3: That's why we have him with us on the regular 547 00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg. 548 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 549 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo car Play, 550 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 1: and then roun Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen 551 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 552 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 553 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 2: Lawmakers, as we mentioned, still have time. 554 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 3: We've been talking about dysfunction, chaos, lack of progress, and 555 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 3: look who joins us. We've been overdue here for a 556 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 3: couple of weeks, our conversation with Mick Mulvaney, of course, 557 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 3: former Congressman, co founder of the Freedom Caucus, former acting 558 00:29:57,840 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 3: chief of staff in the Trump White House. 559 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,800 Speaker 2: I could ca going on with the business card. Nick. 560 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:04,400 Speaker 3: I've been looking forward to this because we haven't had 561 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 3: a chance to compare notes for a minute, and quite 562 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 3: a bit has happened in the last couple of weeks. 563 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 2: Here. Where are you on some of the issues that 564 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 2: we've been. 565 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 3: Talking about beginning with a shutdown a week from today. 566 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 11: Yeah, I'm a little confused that a little concern that 567 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 11: I might now be your dysfunction expert. 568 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 5: Goodness gracious that the word about that introduction. 569 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 11: So whenever there's dysfunction of Washington, get moremany on the 570 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,479 Speaker 11: phone call me. 571 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 5: Look, I think the. 572 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 11: Appetite for a shutdown is lower than it usually is. 573 00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 11: I think the likelihood of a shutdown. 574 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,479 Speaker 5: Is higher than it usually is. 575 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 11: All the folks I'm talking to I'm in DC about 576 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 11: every other week, having dinners and lunches with my old 577 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 11: colleagues and so forth, say the place is just nuts 578 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,440 Speaker 11: and they're not sure they can get their act together 579 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 11: in time. I think they're off this week, their back. 580 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 11: They have a handful of days before they have to 581 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 11: fund at least part of the government. It reminds me 582 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 11: of a time back in two thousand, I think it 583 00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 11: was seventeen when we slipped into a shutdown by accident 584 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,720 Speaker 11: because of something that Rand Paul did on the Senate floor. 585 00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 11: I sort of get the feeling you might be sleepwalking 586 00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:05,840 Speaker 11: into that. 587 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 5: Again. It's a different mentality with the same result. 588 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 8: So you talk about how the place is nuts, who's 589 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 8: to blame for that? Is this a Mike Johnson issue? 590 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 8: Is this Donald Trump issue? 591 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 11: It's a voter issue. You get the government you deserve, 592 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:22,920 Speaker 11: You get the government you want. Washington's not broken, that 593 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 11: the country is broken. There's no sinister hand that reaches 594 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,840 Speaker 11: down from Washington and grabs Matt Gates out of the 595 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 11: panhandle of floor and says, send me this nutshell, or 596 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 11: reaches down into Manhattan and says, give me AOC. She 597 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 11: looks like she might want to blow the place up. 598 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,840 Speaker 11: So it's a missin line incentives. There's a lot of money, Kayley, 599 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 11: to be made right now in extremism and outrage. You 600 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 11: look at the squad numbers that the fundraising numbers the 601 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 11: squad had. These are numbers that I had never seen 602 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 11: for low ranking members of the House when I was 603 00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 11: in the House in the in then, I says, top 604 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 11: of representatives, you talk about millions of dollars per quarter 605 00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 11: being raised by free inge elements. 606 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 5: That's where all the money is, that's where the energy is. 607 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 11: And when those incentives align like that, you know why 608 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,239 Speaker 11: vote to keep the government funded when you can make 609 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 11: a bunch of money by keeping it closed. 610 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 3: Well, it's hard to remove what's happening, I think, to 611 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,720 Speaker 3: Kayley's point on Capitol Hill, from what's happening on the 612 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 3: campaign trail, at least to some extent. Mick, We're going 613 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,960 Speaker 3: to a state that you know real well tomorrow, South Carolina. 614 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 3: It's time for the primary. It's time to actually vote. 615 00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 3: And I wonder what this is going to feel like 616 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 3: when Nicki Haley loses as badly as the polls seem 617 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 3: to suggest in her home state. 618 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 11: Yeah, it's really strange. I'm sitting here right now in 619 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 11: South Carolina. I haven't voted yet, voting from open I 620 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:37,680 Speaker 11: think for about two weeks. I'll vote tomorrow morning early. 621 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 11: By the way, Curiously, you know, everybody says Nicki is 622 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 11: still staying in the race because if Trump gets hit 623 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,760 Speaker 11: by a bus or something, she'll be the only person standing. 624 00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 5: That's not true. 625 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 11: In fact, tomorrow, on the ballot, I can vote for 626 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 11: Chris Christy, I can vote from the vec Roamaswami, I 627 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,479 Speaker 11: can vote for Rond De Santis. Those names are still 628 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 11: on the ballot, and nobody's actually seized their campaign. They've 629 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 11: just suspended it. And if Donald Trump get hits by 630 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 11: meat gets hit by meteia or tomorrow, all those folks 631 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 11: will come back in the race. 632 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 5: But look, she's gonna lose badly. 633 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,200 Speaker 11: Her own metric a couple of weeks ago is she 634 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 11: said she had to do better here than she did 635 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 11: in New Hampshire. She lost New Hampshire by eleven. I 636 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 11: think that's a reasonable metric, and she's not going to 637 00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 11: come close. The best I've seen her doing in the 638 00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 11: recent polling is losing by twenty and the worst is 639 00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 11: in the low thirties. So I keep in mind there 640 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 11: was no there's no undecided voters here, Joe. 641 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 5: We all know these folks. I don't know. There's no 642 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 5: amount of campaigning. I think it's going to move to the 643 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 5: media very much. 644 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 8: Well, but Mick, these are also folks that voted Nikki 645 00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 8: Haley to be governor of the state. They just apparently 646 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 8: don't want to see her president of the country. And 647 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 8: we were speaking with our political panel a few moments 648 00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:42,280 Speaker 8: ago this idea that some of the Republican Party suggests 649 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,520 Speaker 8: that Nicki Haley turned her back on them. Is it 650 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,640 Speaker 8: the Republican Party turning away from Nicki Haley or Nicki 651 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 8: Haley turning away from the party, which way, is it. 652 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 11: Yeah, I don't know if i'd articulate it like that, 653 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 11: but I get the sentiment and see if I answer 654 00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,560 Speaker 11: it this way, which is I think she's decided that 655 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 11: she's all in on being anti trum Up at this 656 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 11: point and that this is it. There's no coming back 657 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 11: from this. You don't come back from attacking him the 658 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 11: way that she has. You certainly don't come back from 659 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 11: attacking him on Saturday Night Live. He watches Saturday Night 660 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:10,839 Speaker 11: Live like I go to mass It's just that's part 661 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:15,520 Speaker 11: of his culture, right. She's cast her or a lot now 662 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 11: with the anti Trump wing of the party, and that 663 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,720 Speaker 11: may pay off big time in corporate boards in the future. 664 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 11: I don't think it pays off with politics. Is that 665 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:25,919 Speaker 11: her turning her back on the party, the party turning 666 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:27,799 Speaker 11: her back on her? I don't know, but I think 667 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 11: that's got to be the mentality here is either wait 668 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,400 Speaker 11: around and hope he dies or make a bunch of money. 669 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,719 Speaker 11: I don't understand that logic any other way. There might 670 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:36,560 Speaker 11: be an explanation, but. 671 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 5: I can't see it. 672 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 3: Wow, that's incredible for someone who's been associated with conservative 673 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,040 Speaker 3: principles to the extent that she has and work for 674 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,560 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. Nick, the way you're talking makes it sound 675 00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:50,279 Speaker 3: to me like there's no twenty twenty eight. 676 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,360 Speaker 2: This is not a dress. Well the next election that 677 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 2: this is it now? 678 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,880 Speaker 11: If the party has truly gone populist, and it looks 679 00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,800 Speaker 11: like it is, okay, by the way, we're not the 680 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 11: Holy Ones. 681 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,680 Speaker 5: But if it's gone truly populist, then. 682 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:07,240 Speaker 11: Is there a room for a physical conservative neo con 683 00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,320 Speaker 11: like Nikki Haley sometime in the future. 684 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 5: I'm not sure there is. 685 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 11: Maybe she's looking at that same sort of environment. To 686 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,279 Speaker 11: keep in mind, she's probably not going into the administration 687 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,000 Speaker 11: in any way shape orformance. Means, how do you stay 688 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,320 Speaker 11: relevant for another four years? So yeah, I think it 689 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,200 Speaker 11: might be in her self interest to sort of make 690 00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 11: it or break it here, which is why I think 691 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 11: originally she said, you know, she might not stay in 692 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 11: South Carolina. She thought she couldn't win by you know, 693 00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,319 Speaker 11: at least lose by single digits. So now are she 694 00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,160 Speaker 11: saying she'll stay in as long as the money lasts, 695 00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:36,919 Speaker 11: And I think that's probably smart on her part. 696 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 4: Well. 697 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 8: In part of her closing argument, Mick, is this idea 698 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,840 Speaker 8: that it shouldn't be the primary election that matters to everyone, 699 00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,880 Speaker 8: but the general election that Trump would lose to Biden. 700 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 8: In the general, she would beat Biden. We're not seeing 701 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 8: many voters seemingly take that into account, though. Why do 702 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:52,920 Speaker 8: you think that is? 703 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,040 Speaker 11: That's never a compelling argument ever for voters. Every poster 704 00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,839 Speaker 11: will tell that, Every candidate will tell you that. When 705 00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:01,560 Speaker 11: you when you're saying vote for me because I can 706 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 11: be I'm better at beating the other side, that means, really, 707 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,919 Speaker 11: that's your plans C or D or E. It didn't 708 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,120 Speaker 11: work for Mitt Romney, he was our electable guy against 709 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,120 Speaker 11: Barack Obama. That washed out badly. It didn't work for 710 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,320 Speaker 11: John Kerry, he was the electable guy against against George Bush. 711 00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:18,920 Speaker 5: That that that just doesn't sell, Kaylee. 712 00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 11: When you when you hear politicians making that argument, it 713 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,680 Speaker 11: means that their first two or three ideas flamed out 714 00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:25,280 Speaker 11: pretty badly. 715 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:27,439 Speaker 9: Hu Wow. 716 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:28,279 Speaker 2: I'll tell you what though. 717 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,920 Speaker 3: Look, I don't know if we're going to get a 718 00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:35,280 Speaker 3: no labels candidate here, Mick mulvaney. If the country thinks 719 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,360 Speaker 3: they want anyone other than Trump and Biden following Super Tuesday, Kaylee, 720 00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,439 Speaker 3: we may have to go to mix original plan here. 721 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:48,600 Speaker 2: Dwayne the Rock Johnson and forgot about that. 722 00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:49,759 Speaker 8: Make you still stand by that? 723 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:51,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, well I do. 724 00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:53,359 Speaker 11: If I just wrote a piece in The Hill this 725 00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,320 Speaker 11: week on the on the on the third party. 726 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,359 Speaker 5: A couple of ways to look at it. Number One, 727 00:36:57,719 --> 00:36:59,560 Speaker 5: you know, I believe. 728 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,520 Speaker 11: That folks are actually looking for a third party. I do 729 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,680 Speaker 11: believe that that they're not happy with Trump versus Biden. Now, 730 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,520 Speaker 11: you could really make the argument that that's not true 731 00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,800 Speaker 11: because they've had a chance. I mean, they've had a 732 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 11: chance at Dean Phillips, they've had a chance at Nikki Haley, 733 00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:12,399 Speaker 11: and they've all said, well, you know what, we still 734 00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,319 Speaker 11: at to like Biden and Trump anyway. So but I 735 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 11: got to feel that the Trump the thata that No 736 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,839 Speaker 11: Labels has is right, which is that if you could 737 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,120 Speaker 11: find the right third party, you could make waves here 738 00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:26,920 Speaker 11: up to and including possibly stealing a victory. It's a 739 00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,840 Speaker 11: generational type of time where you could do it. But 740 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,360 Speaker 11: there's nobody to fill the role, and you can't beat 741 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 11: something with nothing. And Dwayne the rog Johnson has shown 742 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:39,360 Speaker 11: no interest, Oprah Winfrey has shown no interest. Taylor Swift, 743 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,840 Speaker 11: name me somebody who could get sort of the national 744 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:46,520 Speaker 11: approval ratings that would launch them into a viable third 745 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,520 Speaker 11: party role. That just isn't the person out there that 746 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,719 Speaker 11: fits that description. So while the environment is right for 747 00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 11: a third party, I don't think the people are right 748 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,720 Speaker 11: for a third party. No Labels is going to struggle 749 00:37:55,920 --> 00:38:00,160 Speaker 11: to get anybody who does better than just a protest vote. O. K. 750 00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,640 Speaker 8: Junior did get a fifteen percent in the Quinnipiac poll 751 00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:05,799 Speaker 8: this week, but I guess we'll have to leave it there. 752 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,520 Speaker 8: Mick mulvaney, always a great to have you on the show. 753 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,359 Speaker 8: Thank you so much for joining us, of course, former 754 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,960 Speaker 8: Congressman from South Carolina, co founder of the Freedom Caucus, 755 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,880 Speaker 8: former Acting White House Chief of Staff in the Trump administration. 756 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 8: We always appreciate your time. I'm not sure many people 757 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,560 Speaker 8: have more titles than Mick. Our title is just what 758 00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:21,440 Speaker 8: host of a Balance of Power? 759 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 760 00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:29,759 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 761 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,439 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 762 00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,760 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 763 00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:37,480 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.