WEBVTT - US Job Growth Tops Estimates 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.640 plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.479 Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.440 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:28.360 Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:31.880 search Bloomberg Global News. Let's get to some of the 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:33.479 big news of the day in the market moving news. 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:37.280 Jelena Silchiva is senior US economist at Bloomberg Economics in 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:40.480 our interactive broker studio along with Creed GROUPDA Markets correspondent 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:43.800 at Bloomberg and Creed. I'm gonna get to Elene in 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:46.400 a moment to lay at the jobs data markets, though 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:49.160 I feel like just don't know where to go right now. 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:51.479 They don't know where to go, I will say, I 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:55.080 think today is the kind of day where risk sentiment 0:00:55.760 --> 0:00:59.680 is very much affected by the passing of of shenzo 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:03.360 abe Um and you know, not not to make light 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:05.480 of it at all, but one of the things that 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.200 a trader told me early on in my career was 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:12.240 that sometimes the best undergraduate degree for trading is psychology, 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:14.200 and and sometimes it has a major effect. And I 0:01:14.200 --> 0:01:16.160 think that is the trade that you saw certainly in 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:18.040 the pre market. You certainly saw it overnight, and I 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:19.960 think you're seeing a little bit of a damper today. 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:22.360 Remember we are looking at very light volume as well, 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:24.679 but there is even when you you know, talk to 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:26.880 traders on the floor, the ones are at their desks, 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:29.959 I should mention there is this kind of somber tone 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:32.600 in terms of even talking about issues that we've been 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:36.319 talking about for ages, inflation, recession, the jobs number, etcetera. 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:38.640 But it's really the passing Shinzo abe that I think 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:41.520 has had an effect on how these markets are trading 0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:43.920 to the point where it's always you're even seeing kind 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:45.840 of the the go to trade right now, which is 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:48.720 cell treasuries, cell stocks, and that has been the trade 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:50.840 that's been going on for six months straight. And as 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:53.680 you've reminded us, all we created. Look, volume is low 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.000 right now, and you know, we're down on the SP 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:59.720 five from a volume perspective, more than twenty three percent 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:02.920 versus the last twenty days, so not a lot of 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:05.360 activity during this holiday week. You initially ate to us 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:07.640 senior US economists Bloomberg Economics, come on in here and 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:09.360 talk a little bit about this job's report, because that 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:13.600 was a blockbuster report, jobs added, blowing past the tutor 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:17.440 and sixty thousand that analysts on average forecast. According to 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:21.320 Bloomberg Economics. There was some bad news though, the participation 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:24.240 rate taking down. Give us your take, Well, that was 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:27.880 a little bit of flying in the goinment, I would say, 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:31.240 But overall, I think the report was pretty good, not 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:35.400 just on the surface but beneath. I think one thing 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:38.760 I would like to highlight is the breadth of job creation, 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:41.720 particularly in the service sector. So if you look at 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:45.080 the diffusion index, uh, you know, this is one of 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:50.200 the indicators that goes into our model for recession probabilities. 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:54.800 You know that index is remaining really high. It increased 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:58.800 in the months of June. It broadened further for the 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:02.760 services sector, and that is telling us that more and 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:06.560 more industries are hiring, so people find no difficulty finding 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:09.160 a job even if they lost one. So we all 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:12.400 heard the news about layoffs in the text sector and 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:16.520 are the industry that may be very interest rate sensitive. 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:20.400 But people seem to be able to find jobs easily 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:23.839 even if they get laid off. This is a good thing, 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:27.040 all right. So, Yelena, what does this mean for something 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.480 that creately focuses on day to day? She watches the 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:31.720 market when investors are like, oh my god, were freaked 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:34.400 about recession. What does that mean for stacks? Oh no, wait, 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:36.600 things are good? What does this mean for aggressive FED? 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:38.640 So maybe I'm not so worried about recession, but I'm 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:42.600 worried about valuations. How do you kind of make sense 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.320 of it? So I think, to me, this report clears 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:50.160 the way for the FIT to remain on an aggressive tightening. 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.800 So it makes even the CPI report next week less 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:59.720 of an important report, because you know, it just says, okay, 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.600 little able market is doing great, everything is fine for now, 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.560 it can withstand an aggressive FED. That is correct, even 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:09.120 though we expect that quite uh significant increase in the 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:13.240 headline CPI um next week. That's really really interesting, Creedy, 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:14.960 What do you think of that? The idea that because 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:17.000 this job's print was so strong. It shows that the 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:19.760 labor market is so stronger. There was the downward revision 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:22.279 last month, we should note, but still the US adding 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:25.920 just hundreds of thousands of jobs per month every single month. Throwo. 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:28.960 Does that indeed make the CPI report that we get 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:30.800 next week less important because the Fed is kind of 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.599 on its path and it is committed to fighting inflation. Well, 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:36.240 I think you have to talk about the recessionary dashboard here, 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:39.200 which isn't signaling your traditional signals. You're not seeing these 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:42.560 widespread layoffs. You're not seeing this big slowdown and business investment. 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.960 I mean, sure you're seeing kind of layoffs and pockets Amazon, games, top, etcetera. 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:47.720 But it's still not at the level that U saw 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:50.000 on two thousand eight, for example, where everyone is getting 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:51.480 laid off. My mom, by the way, it was one 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:53.200 of them at the time, and I remember it being 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:56.000 this kind of, uh, this thing that almost took over 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:58.560 every Almost everyone we knew was there had some sort 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.560 of job shake up. This is, I think different, and 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:03.920 that's why you're seeing such a big range in terms 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:05.960 of is this a shallow recession that you really quickly 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:08.080 jump out of, or is this a deep one, and 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:11.120 that's why there's so much confusion. Recession at all or 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:12.480 is this a recession at all? And I think that's 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:14.640 a good point that you bring up, because our question 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:16.280 is a day, by the way, on Bloomberg Television today, 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:19.120 was what recession we had a good ism data, Sure, 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:21.960 sentiment is slow, Sure everyone'sti talking about inflation, but look 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:24.080 at the numbers. People are still spending. So you, Lena, 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:26.679 really quickly twenty seconds do we get officially a recession? 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:28.640 But it doesn't feel so bad. I don't think we 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:31.680 are going to get even a technical recession in terms 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:35.400 of negative roles in the second quarter of this year. 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:37.520 I think we get a positive reading and we are 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:39.760 not in a recession. All right, Well, think you have 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.160 got guys, go have a glass of wine and a 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:46.160 beer for the weekend. Things are all rosy. We got 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:48.560 a few hours to go. All right, Thank you so much. 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:50.280 As always, you Lena should like you have to check 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:52.600 out her work on the Bloomberg tournament on the senior 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:55.680 US economist at Bloomberg Economics and follow all those hits 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:58.839 that creedy group to das Markets correspondent at Bloomberg really 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:01.839 just setting us up for some of our discussions today too. 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:05.960 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:10.719 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So, of course, 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:13.120 the big story, certainly here in the United States, there's several, 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:16.080 but really for US, front and center and for investors 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:18.560 has been that monthly jobs report. You as employers, you know, 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:21.240 the news adding more jobs in June than forecast, the 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.680 unemployment rate holding your five decade low, signs of both 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:28.040 strong demand and that tight labor market continuing. And TI 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:30.239 we know that's going to help keep the Fed officials 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.600 tilted toward another jumbo interest rate hike. They're going to 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:35.360 be on their mission because it's about getting inflation down. Yeah, 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:38.080 my money's on Carol, But I'm not a betting man. Okay, 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:40.240 I'm not a betting man. We love to talk to 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.760 Peter Quigley, the president and CEO of Kelly. It's a 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:46.800 global staffing solutions company, so they've got a really good 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:48.400 idea of what's going on in the labor market, not 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:50.559 just here in the US, but around the world. Peter 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:53.560 joins us this afternoon on the phone from Harbor Springs, Michigan, Peter, 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:56.680 how are you. How are you. We're doing well. Thanks, 0:06:56.680 --> 0:07:00.279 it's good to have you with us. Just spa asking 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:04.440 those Bloomberg estimates of two thousand jobs gained for the month. 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:08.560 What in here sticks out to you in this report? Well, 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:11.200 I think the fact that it is across the board 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:16.160 job gains all of the verticals that reasonably well um 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:20.640 surpassed expectations in light of the fact that there is 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:24.960 considerable concern about a recession, I think speaks to the 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:29.520 strength of the US labor market right now. If there's 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:33.559 one downside, it was down slight downtick in the labor 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.640 force participation rate. We need to get more people back 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.360 into the workforce, but a slight really slight, And I 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:41.720 know some of the analysis earlier on Bloomberg was like, yeah, 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:43.680 we can kind of blow that off for the moment, 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:45.840 because there are some people we know who have maybe 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:48.640 just said I'm done, I've retired. I'm not gonna, you know, 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:51.400 come back into the labor force. Peter, how does the 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:54.760 data points that you're seeing kind of fit with not 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:56.760 only the monthly JAWS report that we got today, but 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.720 some of the other economic statistics about what's going on 0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:02.160 in economy. Would you put your money if you were 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.440 a betting man, we know Tim isn't. Would you put 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:06.240 it on that a recession is going to come or 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:08.040 there's no way based on what you're seeing in this 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:11.680 labor market. Well, I think it's really tough Carol, to 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:15.880 uh see a recession when you have this kind of 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:20.040 strength and the labor market. Um, of course it could 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:26.440 be a couple of quarters away. But obviously companies, the 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:31.240 companies that Kelly deals with, still hiring there looking for workers. 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:35.360 They have demand for their products, and they're looking for 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:40.720 people to help support their transportation of goods or production 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:44.640 of goods. Uh. So, again, I'm not a betting man either, 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:47.600 but I would uh, I would say it's hard to 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:53.559 reconcile uh immediate recession with the jobs market and the 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:56.480 job report. We're here today, Peter. We love talking with 0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:59.319 you because you are seeing what companies are doing remind 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:01.440 us of you said, kind of a broad swath of 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:03.360 companies that you deal with, what kind of jobs that 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:05.439 was at mostly senior level that you're dealing with, or 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:10.720 what we we deal with from production workers where house 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:16.640 house workers, office clerical engineers, scientists were the largest provider 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:21.760 of substitute teachers in the US UM so we run 0:09:21.800 --> 0:09:26.960 the Gamut technology uh bok permanent placement as well as temporary, 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:30.040 so we have a pretty good hand on the pulse 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.400 of what's going on in the labor market. Peter, are 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:37.319 you seeing any sort of decline in demand for employees 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:39.320 from the companies that you work with? As the FED 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:41.800 has raised interest rates and has interest rates have gone up, 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:47.400 we we've seen some softening, and particular verticals technology has 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:50.440 softened a little bit. I think like sciences because they're 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:53.839 catching your breath from two years of the pandemic has 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:57.720 slowed down a little bit. Um really high end permanent 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:04.520 placement has tempered somewhat. You're talking level stuff, no more 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:11.600 director level roles that companies are hiring or high volume 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:15.080 of hiring when they're launching a new product. We support 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:19.679 Kelly supports companies and they're hiring. So there may be 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:24.560 some softening, but we don't see a significant decline right now. 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:26.840 I tease this so I want to get to it 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:29.360 because you guys have done a survey of more than 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:33.000 a thousand senior executives and you found that the great 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:36.400 resignation will extend into the highest levels of the c suite. 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:40.440 Senior executives say they will leave their firms within the 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:44.120 next two years. What's that about, is that they're leaving 0:10:44.160 --> 0:10:47.320 for good or because they've got a better opportunity. I 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:49.520 think this is a big surprise coming for a lot 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:55.800 of companies because executives at all levels are taking stock 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:58.400 of what happened during the pandemic, whether it was working 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.920 remotely or actually moving out of a particular location, not 0:11:02.040 --> 0:11:05.880 having to commute, being closer to family, and they realize 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:09.960 that they have alternatives now that we're in a different environment, 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:14.160 and it doesn't just impact your mid level employees. We're 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:18.520 going to see the great resignation impact sea level executives 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.200 as well. Peter, We've I've got a real meta question 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:22.840 for you just in the last forty five seconds that 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:25.880 we have. What about it your firm at Kelly, What 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.679 are you seeing with hiring your own full time employees, 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.760 your own part time employees? What are you doing inside 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:36.120 the company right now? Well, we went to a remote 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:39.800 work environment more than six years ago. We called it 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:45.720 Kelly Anywhere where we allowed people to work remotely uh 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:49.360 to balance their life and their work, and it was 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:54.160 highly adapted by our employees, and we were ready for 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:56.760 the pandemic when it hit. But we think it pays 0:11:56.840 --> 0:12:01.559 dividends longer term for retaining our employee because we recognize 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:05.360 that it's not about building your life around work, it's 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:09.400 about fitting work into your life. Try that at your 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:12.360 next review meeting, Tim, Okay, I'll be doing it from 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:17.320 the office, but fitting fitting work around your life. Work 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:19.640 is my life and I love it. I like those challenges, 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.679 but I'm really trying to fit work around my life yet. 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:28.120 Next this is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:32.720 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We gotta 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:35.520 talk a little bit about COVID. Remember Tim, when among 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:37.679 the most read stories on the Bloomberg it was always 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:40.720 the COVID summary and the virus wrap that we're doing 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:44.720 right like for for months, um on end, it was 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:47.440 always about what's going on in COVID. It's a little 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:49.760 bit different nowadays, and yet as you and I know 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.120 over the last few weeks, it's still front and center, 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:54.400 has a pandemic to endemic at this point. This is 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.679 a conversation we've been looking forward to having Dr Ian LS. 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:58.839 Spader is clinical professor of medicine at n y U 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:00.920 Lango Ines Medical Center. He joins us on the phone 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:03.200 from New York City this afternoon. Dr les Better, How 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.600 are you great? I hope you guys are feeling better. 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:09.600 You've it's been running through the studio, I say, yeah, 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:12.600 it has. You're absolutely right. Carol's in a separate room. 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.800 She's gotten it twice, or the things, she's actually gotten 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:18.000 it three times. I'll let her spill the details. I'm wondering, though, 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:20.200 how we should be thinking about this, because I gotta 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.200 tell you, even though it does seem like it's endemic 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:24.559 in the sense that everybody's going to get it at 0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:27.840 some point, our reaction to it still feels kind of 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:31.320 pandemic e in the sense of isolation for ten days 0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:35.840 for kids under five who aren't vaccinated, for example. Yeah, 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.760 there's no question we're seeing this surge, and exactly as 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:41.920 you said, B A five, it's about of the cases 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.880 that we're seeing A four A. These are kind of 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:49.760 the latest omicron variants, right from B A one, which 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:53.199 originated in South Africa. So you know, we're seeing viral 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:57.880 mutations exactly as you say, we're seeing reinfection. So this 0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:01.560 virus not only spreads were easily, so more people are 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:04.520 getting it and they're a little less symptomatic, so they're 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.640 really spreading it before they even feel very sick themselves. 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:11.079 So it's a little harder to alert other people because 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:14.600 by the time UH, you do a swab and you've 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.480 been having a call for running nose, you've probably infected 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:21.960 other people. There's also immunizasion, so people who have had 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:27.400 either the vaccine or even had covid or getting reinfections, 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:32.000 and it's about cases are actually reinfection, so you can 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:34.800 have it two or three times like our good friend 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:39.920 and UH and co host. So it's very it's very frustrating, 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.400 you know, obviously, and a lot of people say, what 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:44.680 do I do I feel? Such? Should I test? If 0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:48.240 I do test no positive? Should I take pat slovin? 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:50.880 Should I you know, tough it out? Would that be better? 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.480 So there's really lots of issues and lots of questions. 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:55.560 I mean, this is I mean that was my case. 0:14:55.800 --> 0:15:00.440 I got it. I tested positive, I had UM eight fever, 0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:04.720 UH really bad sort of throat, took pack slovid and 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.160 really within twenty four hours felt a real big difference. 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:09.080 That fever went away, but then it it just I 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.200 felt like I plateaued and just you know, it felt yiky, 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:15.400 And then I tested negative, came back to work for 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:18.440 about four days, and then started getting symptoms again. This 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:20.800 time it was all nasal and just wiped me out 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.120 for two or three days, solid like in bed and 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.920 then trying to find my way back. I feel like 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.640 Ian that we just continue to not know about it. 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.560 I didn't go to the hospital fingers crossed to vaccines 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.000 to boosters. So that's a good thing, right, I mean, 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:38.960 but there's still like, yes, it's going to hit us. Yeah, 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.960 unfortunately it, Kim says, you know, we're it looks like 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:45.440 we're evolving into a more gimmick stage. And Thember coronaviruses 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:49.760 there were four or five, and you know, multiple coronaviruses, 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.840 and typically they've caused cross and colds. And had had 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:56.200 we not known about COVID, you would have toughed this 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:58.760 through and said I have a virus, maybe a flu. Okay, 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:02.320 it's similar. Maybe they mean that as bad. Uh, but 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:05.720 now that we know to test, people are asking about 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:09.080 past little bit. But your case is exactly right. First 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:11.760 of all, we try not to give it to everybody, right, 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:14.880 because it is a somewhat limited resource. You can't treat everyone. 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:17.720 And there may actually be some benefit to toughing it 0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:21.160 through and getting you know, a polychlonal response, kind of 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:24.520 natural immunity may give us an advantage in the future. 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:29.720 But for people who are older, sicker, maybe have underlying problems. Um, Actually, 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:33.160 they definitely inhibits the virus, so it slows it down. 0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:36.920 But when you stop after five days, many people will 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:40.360 get a rebound. The virus hasn't been eliminated, it's just 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:43.360 slowed down to give your body a chance to respond 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:46.400 to it. So we do see that. Uh, and there's 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.240 a real question. Is that a real advantage. Maybe it's 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:51.680 been just to write it through. But what I would 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.920 say is that for people who have underlying medical problems 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:59.760 and with HIV, cop D, lung disease, liver disease, you know, cancer, 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:04.280 it's just a big group obesity, those people probably should 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.000 get it. But if you're otherwise young and healthy, it's 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:10.199 probably better to write it out. Dr les Vader. As 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:11.840 soon as I'm gonna ask you this question, I'm going 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.040 to drink, you know, curse myself. I guess because I'll 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:17.159 probably get it. But I somehow have been in an 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.959 apartment for the last Superman rights now with two people 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:23.639 who have COVID, and I somehow have not gotten it. 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:26.800 I'm talking to better apartment here in Brooklyn. What do 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:31.600 we know about people who haven't gotten this? So great question, 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.680 and we definitely see some people like that, people who 0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:38.399 are young and strong like you are either they've had 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.600 other coronaviruses and have a little bit of immunity to 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:46.480 kind of similar viruses other coronaviruses, or they've had a 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:50.120 very mild asymptomatic case. We've seen people where they come 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:54.400 in you test antibodies, they're positive, So either they're vaccines 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:57.280 have work great, or they've had a very mild case 0:17:57.359 --> 0:17:59.480 they didn't even know it, maybe a call for sniffle 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:03.159 for a day, didn't test themselves. So, and there are 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.040 some other people whose immune system is very good. There's 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:08.400 a lot we don't really know about all the details 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.160 of this um and that's why some people get reinfected, 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.399 and why some people can be exposed and really not 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:16.960 seem to get symptoms at all. A lot that we 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:19.600 shall have to learn. Yeah, we're masks That's what I'm 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:22.160 gonna say. So Tim is young and strong and I'm 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:26.440 old and week ian. You're not coming on anymore. You're done. 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:32.399 I did not say that exactly what. We love you anyway, 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:36.440 really appreciate it now. I just I feel like, you know, 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.040 they're no vagaries. And I'll tell you in my case, 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:41.840 I don't really have major underlying health, but I have 0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:43.960 a tendency to get sick and then be very sick 0:18:44.000 --> 0:18:47.200 for a long time. You're good until b a sex. Okay, 0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:50.240 it's just down the corner. What does that fall? You're 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:54.240 listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:58.399 Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Right now, we 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:00.200 want to tell you about a story you'll find line 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.320 at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week, also on the 0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:05.880 Bloomberg terminal. It's about the fuel theft in Mexico. That's 0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:10.240 a billion dollar program program problem. Excuse me again, although 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:12.359 there might be a program that's behind it as well. 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:14.080 And I have to say, Tim, this made me go 0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:16.920 and do some research because I remember back in twenty nineteen, 0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:19.239 a few years ago, there was another story that they 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:21.639 wrote about. But it was a different type of fuel 0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:25.520 probe problem. Yeah. This story written by Amy Stillman, energy 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.000 reporter for Bloomberg News. Amy joins us this afternoon on 0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:30.440 the phone from Mexico City. Joel Weber is the editor 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:32.600 of Bloomberg Business Week. He's with me in the Bloomberg 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:36.600 Interactive Broker studio. Joel. That story that that Carol referenced 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:41.640 is the gasoline that was being stolen, which am Low 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:44.720 when he came to power promised to would try to 0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:46.920 get that under control. But there's a new issue now 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:50.160 and that has to do with liquefied petroleum gas. Yeah. 0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:55.760 So we actually um covered the fuel theft previously, the 0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:59.560 theft of gasoline in Mexico in our highst issue a 0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:02.240 couple of years ago. What was really interesting to me 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:04.480 here is that Emma takes a lot of credit for 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:07.439 cracking down on that, and Amy came to us with 0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:10.840 this reporting that was like, yeah, they've actually really uh 0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:14.320 it's been successful on the gas front. Like the whole 0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:17.919 idea of of tapping pimics his pipelines throughout the country 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:20.720 and stealing gas and this becoming a black market that 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:26.200 has gone away, but in its place liquefied Uh, natural 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:30.320 gas has become the problem that is now filling this void, 0:20:30.680 --> 0:20:34.719 and it's almost exactly the same as before. It's not 0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:39.600 as big of a problem yet, but the numbers have skyrocketed. UH. 0:20:39.640 --> 0:20:43.200 And so Amy walk us through what why this keeps 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:48.400 happening in Mexico and what's different at this time? Great, yes, 0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:53.480 thank you very much. UM. So essentially that's correct, UM, 0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:58.280 what we found to our reporting UM, and it's involved 0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:03.320 going to some of the more dangerous places in Mexico 0:21:03.480 --> 0:21:07.920 where UM staff of fuel and different types of fuel, 0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:13.800 including gasoline and liquified petroleum gas LPG is continuing, UM, 0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:16.960 you know, and spoke to residents in these places to 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:21.520 try to understand how the market has changed since ANLO 0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:25.480 cracked down on fuel theft UM, which is known locally 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:29.520 as watching polls UM. And you know what we found 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:34.920 was some interesting UM, some interesting changes, uh, not all 0:21:35.200 --> 0:21:40.920 entirely good. UM. It's correct that according to the official numbers, 0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:46.160 gasoline staff, gasoline and diesel thefts has fallen by um, 0:21:46.240 --> 0:21:51.000 you know somewhere between nine pent um since from before 0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:54.720