WEBVTT - Party Politics vs. The 2024 Presidential Race 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:05.360 Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and 0:00:05.400 --> 0:00:08.840 social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:13.840 Tim O'Brien. Today's Crash Course party politics versus the twenty 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:18.319 twenty four presidential race. Have voters, Politico's analysts, and the 0:00:18.360 --> 0:00:22.880 media focused before with such intensity on a presidential race 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:26.920 in the US more than a year before the actual vote. Perhaps, 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.800 but I'm willing to say probably not. The reason why 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.920 this race is so magnetic are overt Trump and trump 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:37.440 Ism are in the air. Democracies on the table. Pivotal 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:41.600 policy issues are in play, reproductive rights, immigration, jobs in 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:47.440 the economy, healthcare, public health and public safety, education, national security, 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:50.640 the rule of law, and the funding and future shape 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:54.360 of the federal government. Social media choose on all of this. 0:00:54.480 --> 0:01:00.400 Twenty four to seven information and disinformation is ubiquitous, Ship 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:03.520 is at a boiling point, and Democrats and Republicans are 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:07.800 maneuvering for position. It all matters. So spend some time 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:10.679 with me today and my guest, Peggy Collins, as we 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:13.560 tee up all of this fear consideration. Peggy is the 0:01:13.640 --> 0:01:16.720 Washington Bureau chief of Bloomberg News and a veteran national 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:19.880 and local news reporter. She is a gifted editor and thinker, 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:22.800 and in a very shambolic world, she is a great 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:26.520 source of clarity. Welcome to crash course, Peggy. 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:28.840 Thank you so much for having me, Tim, So. 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:30.880 To sort of get our arms around this, I thought 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.640 we'd break up our discussion today into three big chunks, 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:37.120 looking at where the Democrats are situated, then looking at 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:39.920 where the Republicans are situated, and then trying to do 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:42.479 a little bit of tea leaf reading for what that 0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:45.720 means in twenty twenty four is the race comes closer 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.080 and closer to the finish line. And then how you, 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.280 as a manager of a massive reporting process sort of 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:52.920 deploy your troops around all of that. 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:55.280 Well, we're trying to get our heads around that too, 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:57.200 so it'll be helpful for me to think it through 0:01:57.240 --> 0:01:57.560 with you. 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.000 I'll probably circle back to you at midpoint sometime next 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:01.240 here so we can revisit all of this. 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.360 That sounds great, So let's talk first. 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:07.720 About the Democrats and Joe Biden and his stature as 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:11.120 a leader. Obviously, like you know, the opinion polls have 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:15.480 shown him as very weak, as not someone who'd be 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:17.920 coming into the selection with the kind of polling numbers 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:19.959 that you would describe as wind at the back. It's 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.080 more like, you know, ball and chain around the ankle. 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:26.840 Talk a little bit about that and how where you 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:29.120 see him right now as a leader of his party. 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:31.799 Well, that's a good question, Tim, because I think if 0:02:31.840 --> 0:02:34.120 you ask a lot of people in the American public, 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:36.520 what our reporting shows is that his age is one 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:39.080 of the biggest liabilities. There's no doubt about that. It 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:41.519 comes up a lot. But if you talk to people 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:44.680 inside of Washington who are in his inner circle or 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.320 supportive of him, what we hear mostly is that they 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:52.359 point to the fact that he has actually passed or 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:56.520 been able to pass some really big legislation in his 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:59.239 first term as president. We look at the infrastructure bill. 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:02.680 There's been so many administrations over the decades that haven't 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:06.760 actually been able to get a bipartisan infrastructure bill done 0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:09.040 for the country, and he has. They'll point to two 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:12.200 other things. They'll also point to the IRA Bill that 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:15.720 he passed over last summer, where it's one of the 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:19.760 biggest investments in clean technology electric vehicles that we've seen, 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:23.240 and that's really a tribute to the climate change efforts 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:25.680 that he has made, which a lot of young voters 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.880 consider one of their most important things that they're thinking 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:30.960 of about the future of the country. And the third 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.919 is the Chips Act in terms of countering China and 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:38.560 national security and trying to bring more factories back to 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:42.080 the US or near shoring with other countries. So if 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.440 you think of those two to three legislative achievements, the 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:49.440 Infrastructure Bill, IRA and the Chips Bill, Biden supporters will 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:52.920 say he's actually gotten a lot done, but the public 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:56.560 is looking more at okay, But we don't really feel 0:03:56.600 --> 0:04:00.520 that necessarily yet in our towns and our communities. And again, 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.040 age is something that comes up a lot in our 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:05.680 reporting when it comes to President Biden, so. 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:07.600 You know, we can't bundle that a little bit. He 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:11.040 himself is surrounded by seniors on the hill of both 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:14.600 parties hill. Most likely it polls her to be believed 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:18.320 be campaigning against another senior, Donald Trump. So it's not 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:21.520 exactly like he's an old man surrounded by spring chickens. 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:24.520 But he also presents as having some acuity problems. He 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:27.400 can be mush mouthed when he speaks, he can wander 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:29.680 in his thinking. Although he's wandered in his thinking for 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:33.680 decades before he became an older American president. In addition 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.160 to that, you know, it's sort of mysterious and interesting 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:39.080 to me, this I guess messaging problem the Dems have 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:42.080 because you know, you mentioned the IRA as a signature 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:46.280 legislative achievement. It's unfortunately named the Inflation Reduction Act, which 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:49.760 they sort of set themselves up for criticism with that, 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:52.640 given that inflation later like shot through the roof. But 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:56.599 putting inflation aside, it's cooled off since last year. The 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.800 metrics in the economy are good. The US economy is 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:06.400 robust compared to other Western industrialized economies. GDP is projected 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:09.480 derived more than two percent this year. Job and wage 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:12.280 growth have been strong, even with the inflation battle. Inflation 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:14.920 is around three point seven percent. That's slightly above its 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:18.119 historical average, but it's way below the eight percent plus 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:20.840 that freaked everyone out last year. The FAT has jacked 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:23.359 up interest rates to deal with all of this. But 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:26.120 you know, wage growth, job growth is high, but people 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:30.680 feel wary, and the Democrats are not getting credit for 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.960 an economy and all by most measures is doing very well. 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:36.400 What do you attribute that to? Is that sort of 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:39.680 you know, human psychology, is it average folks still are 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:43.400 seeing bread prices and gas prices and their basics going 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:46.480 up in the food line helped me get unconfused on this. 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:49.440 Well, I think you're right, Tim, I mean, the US 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.280 economy has a lot of good things going for and 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:54.440 I was just talking to someone this week who actually 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:57.240 said it's been a bright spot not only for many 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:00.160 people in America, but for the world, you know, in 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.479 terms of economies around the world. But when you think 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:07.880 about what Americans are doing every day, driving cars, buying food, 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:12.280 paying electricity bills, those have gone up for people and 0:06:12.480 --> 0:06:15.400 they feel it. So when it comes to those daily 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:18.480 things that you're paying for or weekly or monthly bills, 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:21.279 it feels like they've gone up and they've stayed there. 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.719 So when economists are talking about inflation or the FED, 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:27.640 or when we're covering it here at Bloomberg on a 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:30.960 monthly basis and we see the numbers going down, that 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.960 doesn't actually mean that people are seeing egg prices go 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:37.240 down in the grocery stores. It means that the rate 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:39.720 that the prices are going up are not going up 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:43.440 as fast. That's the disconnect, right exactly. 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:46.640 And is there a way out here from a messaging standpoint, 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:49.320 how does a party presiding of either side of the 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:52.880 aisle over a robust economy but not getting real credit 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:56.320 for it. Is there a way to maneuver politically or 0:06:56.360 --> 0:06:58.479 to message around that. Is it just a matter of 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:01.159 really just banging the and hoping for the best. 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:04.480 Well, I think it is difficult, right. So what the 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:07.640 Biden administration has really tried to do is lean in 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:10.520 on what they call Bidenomics. So they say, other people 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.920 call it Bidenomics, but they've really tried to lean into 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:18.200 Bidenomics and say this is our economic policy, and our 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:22.600 economic policy has really helped not only keep your jobs 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:26.280 and the job numbers up, but also is preparing us 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:28.720 for a future where we may have jobs that are 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:33.440 in future spaces like clean energy and tech and union 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:35.560 jobs that will set you up better for the future. 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:39.360 Because I do think there's this other theme in America 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:41.600 that we've been reporting on a lot at Bloomberg, which 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:44.720 is when you're in the middle class. It's something that's 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:47.440 very quintessential to being American, but a lot of people 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:49.600 in the middle class feel like it's getting harder and 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:52.080 harder to stay in the middle class or. 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:55.119 Move up because it is it is the middle class 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:57.440 in years, has been fraying since the nineteen eighties. It's 0:07:57.480 --> 0:07:59.840 one of the central dynamics of our politics, I think, 0:07:59.880 --> 0:08:03.320 is how both parties respond to that, in good faith 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:04.040 and in bad faith. 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:07.000 And another key factor there tim which you've probably heard 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:09.160 of a lot from the people you talk to, is 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:12.280 housing affordability, because we cover it at Bloomberg in a 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:14.240 couple of different ways. We cover it in terms of 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:17.320 thinking about how many people have the ability to move 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:19.680 from a renter to a home, but also how much 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:23.200 private equity and other businesses have gone into the real 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:26.600 estate market and changed the structure of in America, particularly 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.000 since the financial crisis in two thousand and eight two 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:29.840 thousand and nine. 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:32.200 When one of those underpinnings of the American dream, the 0:08:32.200 --> 0:08:34.400 idea that you could own your own home, came under 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:36.559 assault then and it's only gotten. 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:40.080 Harder, right exactly. And you know, this whole idea of 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:43.320 the renters and homeowners is something that we really do 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:46.319 see changing in America. I mean, rent costs went up 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:48.240 a lot in the last few years when we've been 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:50.560 talking about inflation. That's one of the big drivers of 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:53.679 those inflation numbers being so high, and that is something 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:56.400 that structurally has changed in America and is something that 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:59.720 policymakers are dealing with and that no matter who wins 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:02.800 the pre residential race in November twenty twenty four, will 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:03.440 have to deal with. 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.520 So as the Democrats try to figure out how to 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:09.880 wrestle their way out of the economics messaging conundrum, they 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:13.040 do have some other issues that suggest from voting patterns 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:14.880 that they do have some wind at their back. One 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:16.640 of the big ones, and it'll be an interesting one, 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:19.200 I think, are reproductive rights. The Supreme Court in the 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:20.640 Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:21.120 Wade. 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:24.000 That certainly was a factor I think in the midterm 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:27.600 elections in twenty twenty two. It's undoubtedly going to be 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:30.760 an electoral issue in twenty twenty four. And some interesting 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:34.480 things have been happening in states where you would think 0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:38.320 red states have actually come out to protect women's rights 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:43.679 to access reproductive healthcare and abortions as needed. Kansas famously. 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:46.600 How do you see that playing out as an issue 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:49.080 for the Democrats in twenty twenty four, Well. 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:50.800 I definitely think it's going to be one of the 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:53.360 issues that they are going to lean into and we're 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:55.320 doing a lot of reporting a bloomberg right now not 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:58.240 only on people's feelings about the economy and inflation, but 0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:01.800 does that matter more than something like the decision on 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.000 Row And as you were saying, Tim, there are a 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:08.960 number of cultural societal issues, civil rights issues that people 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:12.240 are looking at in this race, and that at the 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:15.040 end of the day may matter even more than the economy. 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:17.480 That remains to be seen, but it is going to 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:20.000 be something that we're going to be tracking because there 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:23.640 have been so many huge decisions made at the Supreme 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:27.120 Court level, not only Roe, but affirmative Action and then 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:30.160 the student loan decision, So there are some signature things 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.520 that have changed in the country since twenty twenty. 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:36.559 And on the Dobbs decision and reproductive rights, it obviously 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:40.080 resonates very powerfully for female voters, and they are an 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:43.440 all important voting block in swing states and in the 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:46.679 suburbs of big cities in swing states. So that's going 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:49.880 to be a very interesting phenomenon to watch play out 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:54.680 how that decision lights up the electorate in those important 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:55.320 swing states. 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:58.959 That's right, and it is also an issue that Republicans 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:02.440 and the Republican can dates are having to decide in 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:05.800 their own states and also in the presidential election where 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:08.880 they stand on it, because there's differences between the different 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:11.600 Republican candidates in terms of where they fall not only 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:14.160 on row but on reproductive rights. So I think that's 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:16.640 another place where we're going to be watching how that 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:20.160 resonates for voters in different states around America. 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:24.560 I often think of foreign policy as a weak tea 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:27.719 when it comes to winning the allegiance of voters. You know, 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:31.000 we elites, or we academics, or we observers, we journalists 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:33.200 pay attention to foreign affairs in a way that the 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:36.199 average voter doesn't. But I do think the Biden administration 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:41.520 has conducted a fairly exemplary policy in bobbing and weaving 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:45.120 out of how to support Ukraine in the wake of 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:49.760 the Russian invasion and building coalitions in Europe, realigning Visa 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:53.480 v China in East Asia. I don't know that that'll 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:56.720 have any meaning politically, but I do think it does 0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:00.720 adhere to the idea of adult governance in a complim world. 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:03.760 I certainly think you're right on that, and I think 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:08.080 China is a big issue in this presidential race. There 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:11.640 may not be as many voters who really glom onto 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:15.800 the specifics of foreign policy and foreign policy stances like 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:18.400 you were saying, But I do think China is a 0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:21.000 big issue for a lot of American voters in terms 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.000 of how do we stay competitive so that we're able 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:28.400 to keep our jobs or keep our communities growing and robust. 0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:31.120 So that is something that the Biden administration is really 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:34.079 trying to make a signature part of their campaign, pointing 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:37.000 to things like the Chips Act and ways that they're 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.600 trying to bring factories back to America into towns. It 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:44.040 will be interesting to see, though, if people actually see 0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.240 the impact of that by the time we get to 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.520 November twenty twenty four, right. I mean, it's not easy 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:52.319 to build the factory in six months, So that's one 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.120 of the issues. And then the other that you mentioned 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:57.559 on the Ukraine Russia War. It certainly changed so much 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.720 over the past couple of years, and we are seeing 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:04.080 them Washington some support starting to wane for spending the 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:06.960 type of money and providing the type of aid to 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:09.560 Ukraine that we did in the past. So that is 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:11.240 going to be something that we're going to have to 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:12.280 watch really closely. 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:15.360 You know, I mentioned in referencing how the Biden foreign 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.520 policy has been conducted as being adult or mature. Where 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.760 does this idea of sort of adult management of the 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:23.920 federal government reside with voters? You know, coming out of 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.320 the confusion and chaos and attempts to sort of torch 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.840 the constitution during the Trump era. Biden is old, but 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:34.080 he surrounded himself with a competent team. They've tried to 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:38.040 execute in a rational way against clearheaded policies. Does that 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:41.560 matter to voters or does emotion always win the day? 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.240 Is the cult around the far right of trump Ism 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:48.559 and then just standard Republican political allegiances, Does that sort 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:53.840 of emotional affiliation win the day over demonstrable proofs of 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:56.000 just you have your hands on the steering wheel and 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:57.520 the car is staying in its lane. 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:00.240 Well, I think for a lot of voters, the car 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.560 staying in its lane is very important. That feeling of 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.760 stability was something that we saw in the twenty twenty 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:10.920 election be very important in terms that people wanted a 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:14.520 bit more common stability in the country. I will say though, 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.360 that there are a lot of people and the candidates 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:19.720 on the Republican side are talking about this a lot 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.640 who are thinking about how much we're spending as a 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.920 government and whether or not that is the amount that 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:29.200 we should be. So I think the Republicans are touching 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.840 on a nerve there when you talk about government spending 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:34.720 versus what the states are spending, and I think on 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:37.840 either side of the aisle, people are very frustrated by 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.280 the lack of or the perception of the lack of 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:44.000 things getting done at all in Washington, let alone efficiently. 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:45.920 And well, yeah, we'll come back to that a little 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:47.560 bit later when we talk about the threat of apostible 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.800 government shutdown. But while we're focused right now on the Democrats, 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.080 I think some of the issues that weigh against them. 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:54.600 The one of the ones that just seems stark ast 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:57.520 to me as immigration. The Trump administration came under a 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:01.120 lot of fire for how it conducted both governance of 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:05.640 the border and the management of migrants and families and children. Famously, 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.680 Trump tried to build a wall. Famously, I feel like 0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:12.760 the Biden administration hasn't really tackled that problem, and we're 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:15.920 seeing some of the ramifications of that with migrants coming 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:19.640 into cities and federal work rules don't make it easy 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:21.800 for migrants to get a job so they can pay 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:24.560 for their own food in housing, so the taxpayer ends 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:28.360 up having to pick up the tab for housing and food. 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.560 That's become a flashpoint in a lot of places. There's 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.040 been cynicism around how some of the migrants got to 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:37.080 the cities. Obviously then bus there courtesy of Greg Abbott 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.080 and his constituents in Texas. But be that as it may, 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:43.720 there's not a lot of clarity of vision or of 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:47.840 political and policy purpose from the Dems around how to 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.800 deal with immigration in a holistic way. 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.280 I think that's right. I think you've seen that going 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.400 back many administrations. Though I will say that on both 0:15:57.400 --> 0:15:59.840 the Democrat and Republican side that this has been an 0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:02.400 that the country has grappled with and not been able 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:05.960 to find a comprehensive solution for. And we're seeing cities 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.080 really start to break under the strain of it. I 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:12.440 mean it's New York, Chicago, Boston, as well as cities 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.080 on the border and in Florida and in California. So 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:17.960 it is becoming a national issue that people are seeing 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:20.920 on television, they're seeing when they walk around their cities 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:23.880 and towns, and it is such a human issue too. 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:26.040 I mean, I do think we have to remember that. 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:28.240 What I think is one of the things that the 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:32.080 Biden administration has really struggled on is the fact that 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:35.000 they did try about a year ago to talk a 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.720 lot about their Latin American policy and how they could 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:41.280 try to address the root of the problem in terms 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.560 of unrest in some of the countries there. 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:47.440 That is forcing migrants north exactly, local corruption, poverty, all 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.200 the things that are making families for good reason try 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:53.040 to come north to the US to a safe Harvard exactly. 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.640 And that's real, but that also is a big problem 0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:58.560 in terms of, well, how do you solve that? And 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:02.120 they have been trying to to encourage more private investment 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:04.639 and deal with some of the countries in Latin America, 0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:07.359 but that's been very difficult and we haven't seen a 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.160 lot of signs of improvement there, so I think their 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:13.640 ability to message how much improvement they're making on that 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.280 front is limited. And then I think the other issue 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.199 is that Biden really does need Congress to help to 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:22.480 pass some legislation that would make some big changes around immigration, 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:26.840 and they're pretty realistic from our reporting that there's not 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:28.879 a lot of hope there that that's going to get 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:31.520 done before the November twenty twenty four election. 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.480 You know, cities that are struggling to house and support 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:39.880 migrants have also struggled in the COVID era around public safety, 0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:42.600 and that's been a big flashpoint as well. Some of 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:46.560 the crime statistics have been sensationalized. Actually, the homicide rate 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.480 has come down sharply in recent months and even over 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:52.360 the last year, but I still think there's a public 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.760 perception that street crime is rampant in many of our 0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:59.199 big cities, and in some places shoplifting and looting of 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.639 stores has been ran and that tends to be a 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:05.680 local issue. Most presidents are hostage to governors and mayors 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:09.120 around that issue, but it is probably something I think 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:11.600 Republicans are going to continue to try to hang around 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:14.360 Biden's neck. How do you think of that playing out 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:15.800 in twenty twenty four as an issue. 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:17.760 I think it will be a big issue, and I 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:19.760 think to your point, Tim, it will be one that 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:22.480 they do try to put at the feet of Biden. 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.400 I think the issue of crime will be a big 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:28.800 one because again, it relates to people in their towns 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:31.720 and cities all across America, and I do want to 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:35.320 make sure that we do separate the immigration issue and 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:39.480 migrant issue from crime, although oftentimes it is conflated. But 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.199 as you said, the number of times we hear or 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:45.919 see on TV instances of shop limiting and stores, or 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:48.040 just a number of cars that are being stolen, and 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:51.399 we have Bloomberg have reported about the uptick in cars 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:54.240 being stolen. That's again it goes back to things like inflation. 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:56.800 When people can see it in their own towns or 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.879 hear their own friends talk about, Oh, someone broken to 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:03.439 my car and stole my car, my car, keys or whatnot, 0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:07.679 that's very relatable and much easier to shift the thinking 0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:09.880 of people on well, who's going to lead us out 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:13.359 of this situation. I do also think again, the pandemic 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:16.359 has changed a lot of people's lives in America, and 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:20.000 we are still trying to recover from them, work. 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:23.560 Through all of the kind of existential and unusual challenges 0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:27.040 that presented that may well have been temporary exactly. 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:29.040 And the number of people who got thrown out of 0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:32.639 the job market in March April May of twenty twenty 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.600 and who are still rebuilding their lives. I mean there's 0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:37.640 still a lot of people who never went back into 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.560 the job market after the pandemic, and there are others 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:43.400 that started a whole new kind of career or business 0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:46.680 or whatnot. But there's so much fluidity still in our economy, 0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:49.480 so many people who moved around, and I think we're 0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:50.760 still settling from all of it. 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:54.040 One of the last policy issues I wanted to focus 0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:57.320 on before we take a break is healthcare. I don't 0:19:57.359 --> 0:20:02.120 know entirely how to think about where the Biden administration 0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:05.359 is with this, other than healthcare is still a massively 0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:10.840 unaffordable thing for too many Americans. Insurance is prohibitively expensive. 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:14.680 I think there is an economic consequence of workers who 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:18.040 just don't get proper healthcare, families who can't deliver health 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:20.720 care to their children so their children can grow up 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:24.560 and be educated, productive members of society. It feels to 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:27.520 me like it should be a tent pole policy issue 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:30.159 that we figured out. There's some measures around there the 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:33.040 Biden administration has taken to deal with that, most recently 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:37.960 empowering medicare to negotiate with big pharma companies around drug prices. 0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:41.320