Speaker 1: Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and
Speaker 1: social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm
Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien. Today's Crash Course party politics versus the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four presidential race. Have voters, Politico's analysts, and the
Speaker 1: media focused before with such intensity on a presidential race
Speaker 1: in the US more than a year before the actual vote. Perhaps,
Speaker 1: but I'm willing to say probably not. The reason why
Speaker 1: this race is so magnetic are overt Trump and trump
Speaker 1: Ism are in the air. Democracies on the table. Pivotal
Speaker 1: policy issues are in play, reproductive rights, immigration, jobs in
Speaker 1: the economy, healthcare, public health and public safety, education, national security,
Speaker 1: the rule of law, and the funding and future shape
Speaker 1: of the federal government. Social media choose on all of this.
Speaker 1: Twenty four to seven information and disinformation is ubiquitous, Ship
Speaker 1: is at a boiling point, and Democrats and Republicans are
Speaker 1: maneuvering for position. It all matters. So spend some time
Speaker 1: with me today and my guest, Peggy Collins, as we
Speaker 1: tee up all of this fear consideration. Peggy is the
Speaker 1: Washington Bureau chief of Bloomberg News and a veteran national
Speaker 1: and local news reporter. She is a gifted editor and thinker,
Speaker 1: and in a very shambolic world, she is a great
Speaker 1: source of clarity. Welcome to crash course, Peggy.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me, Tim, So.
Speaker 1: To sort of get our arms around this, I thought
Speaker 1: we'd break up our discussion today into three big chunks,
Speaker 1: looking at where the Democrats are situated, then looking at
Speaker 1: where the Republicans are situated, and then trying to do
Speaker 1: a little bit of tea leaf reading for what that
Speaker 1: means in twenty twenty four is the race comes closer
Speaker 1: and closer to the finish line. And then how you,
Speaker 1: as a manager of a massive reporting process sort of
Speaker 1: deploy your troops around all of that.
Speaker 2: Well, we're trying to get our heads around that too,
Speaker 2: so it'll be helpful for me to think it through
Speaker 2: with you.
Speaker 1: I'll probably circle back to you at midpoint sometime next
Speaker 1: here so we can revisit all of this.
Speaker 2: That sounds great, So let's talk first.
Speaker 1: About the Democrats and Joe Biden and his stature as
Speaker 1: a leader. Obviously, like you know, the opinion polls have
Speaker 1: shown him as very weak, as not someone who'd be
Speaker 1: coming into the selection with the kind of polling numbers
Speaker 1: that you would describe as wind at the back. It's
Speaker 1: more like, you know, ball and chain around the ankle.
Speaker 1: Talk a little bit about that and how where you
Speaker 1: see him right now as a leader of his party.
Speaker 2: Well, that's a good question, Tim, because I think if
Speaker 2: you ask a lot of people in the American public,
Speaker 2: what our reporting shows is that his age is one
Speaker 2: of the biggest liabilities. There's no doubt about that. It
Speaker 2: comes up a lot. But if you talk to people
Speaker 2: inside of Washington who are in his inner circle or
Speaker 2: supportive of him, what we hear mostly is that they
Speaker 2: point to the fact that he has actually passed or
Speaker 2: been able to pass some really big legislation in his
Speaker 2: first term as president. We look at the infrastructure bill.
Speaker 2: There's been so many administrations over the decades that haven't
Speaker 2: actually been able to get a bipartisan infrastructure bill done
Speaker 2: for the country, and he has. They'll point to two
Speaker 2: other things. They'll also point to the IRA Bill that
Speaker 2: he passed over last summer, where it's one of the
Speaker 2: biggest investments in clean technology electric vehicles that we've seen,
Speaker 2: and that's really a tribute to the climate change efforts
Speaker 2: that he has made, which a lot of young voters
Speaker 2: consider one of their most important things that they're thinking
Speaker 2: of about the future of the country. And the third
Speaker 2: is the Chips Act in terms of countering China and
Speaker 2: national security and trying to bring more factories back to
Speaker 2: the US or near shoring with other countries. So if
Speaker 2: you think of those two to three legislative achievements, the
Speaker 2: Infrastructure Bill, IRA and the Chips Bill, Biden supporters will
Speaker 2: say he's actually gotten a lot done, but the public
Speaker 2: is looking more at okay, But we don't really feel
Speaker 2: that necessarily yet in our towns and our communities. And again,
Speaker 2: age is something that comes up a lot in our
Speaker 2: reporting when it comes to President Biden, so.
Speaker 1: You know, we can't bundle that a little bit. He
Speaker 1: himself is surrounded by seniors on the hill of both
Speaker 1: parties hill. Most likely it polls her to be believed
Speaker 1: be campaigning against another senior, Donald Trump. So it's not
Speaker 1: exactly like he's an old man surrounded by spring chickens.
Speaker 1: But he also presents as having some acuity problems. He
Speaker 1: can be mush mouthed when he speaks, he can wander
Speaker 1: in his thinking. Although he's wandered in his thinking for
Speaker 1: decades before he became an older American president. In addition
Speaker 1: to that, you know, it's sort of mysterious and interesting
Speaker 1: to me, this I guess messaging problem the Dems have
Speaker 1: because you know, you mentioned the IRA as a signature
Speaker 1: legislative achievement. It's unfortunately named the Inflation Reduction Act, which
Speaker 1: they sort of set themselves up for criticism with that,
Speaker 1: given that inflation later like shot through the roof. But
Speaker 1: putting inflation aside, it's cooled off since last year. The
Speaker 1: metrics in the economy are good. The US economy is
Speaker 1: robust compared to other Western industrialized economies. GDP is projected
Speaker 1: derived more than two percent this year. Job and wage
Speaker 1: growth have been strong, even with the inflation battle. Inflation
Speaker 1: is around three point seven percent. That's slightly above its
Speaker 1: historical average, but it's way below the eight percent plus
Speaker 1: that freaked everyone out last year. The FAT has jacked
Speaker 1: up interest rates to deal with all of this. But
Speaker 1: you know, wage growth, job growth is high, but people
Speaker 1: feel wary, and the Democrats are not getting credit for
Speaker 1: an economy and all by most measures is doing very well.
Speaker 1: What do you attribute that to? Is that sort of
Speaker 1: you know, human psychology, is it average folks still are
Speaker 1: seeing bread prices and gas prices and their basics going
Speaker 1: up in the food line helped me get unconfused on this.
Speaker 2: Well, I think you're right, Tim, I mean, the US
Speaker 2: economy has a lot of good things going for and
Speaker 2: I was just talking to someone this week who actually
Speaker 2: said it's been a bright spot not only for many
Speaker 2: people in America, but for the world, you know, in
Speaker 2: terms of economies around the world. But when you think
Speaker 2: about what Americans are doing every day, driving cars, buying food,
Speaker 2: paying electricity bills, those have gone up for people and
Speaker 2: they feel it. So when it comes to those daily
Speaker 2: things that you're paying for or weekly or monthly bills,
Speaker 2: it feels like they've gone up and they've stayed there.
Speaker 2: So when economists are talking about inflation or the FED,
Speaker 2: or when we're covering it here at Bloomberg on a
Speaker 2: monthly basis and we see the numbers going down, that
Speaker 2: doesn't actually mean that people are seeing egg prices go
Speaker 2: down in the grocery stores. It means that the rate
Speaker 2: that the prices are going up are not going up
Speaker 2: as fast. That's the disconnect, right exactly.
Speaker 1: And is there a way out here from a messaging standpoint,
Speaker 1: how does a party presiding of either side of the
Speaker 1: aisle over a robust economy but not getting real credit
Speaker 1: for it. Is there a way to maneuver politically or
Speaker 1: to message around that. Is it just a matter of
Speaker 1: really just banging the and hoping for the best.
Speaker 2: Well, I think it is difficult, right. So what the
Speaker 2: Biden administration has really tried to do is lean in
Speaker 2: on what they call Bidenomics. So they say, other people
Speaker 2: call it Bidenomics, but they've really tried to lean into
Speaker 2: Bidenomics and say this is our economic policy, and our
Speaker 2: economic policy has really helped not only keep your jobs
Speaker 2: and the job numbers up, but also is preparing us
Speaker 2: for a future where we may have jobs that are
Speaker 2: in future spaces like clean energy and tech and union
Speaker 2: jobs that will set you up better for the future.
Speaker 2: Because I do think there's this other theme in America
Speaker 2: that we've been reporting on a lot at Bloomberg, which
Speaker 2: is when you're in the middle class. It's something that's
Speaker 2: very quintessential to being American, but a lot of people
Speaker 2: in the middle class feel like it's getting harder and
Speaker 2: harder to stay in the middle class or.
Speaker 1: Move up because it is it is the middle class
Speaker 1: in years, has been fraying since the nineteen eighties. It's
Speaker 1: one of the central dynamics of our politics, I think,
Speaker 1: is how both parties respond to that, in good faith
Speaker 1: and in bad faith.
Speaker 2: And another key factor there tim which you've probably heard
Speaker 2: of a lot from the people you talk to, is
Speaker 2: housing affordability, because we cover it at Bloomberg in a
Speaker 2: couple of different ways. We cover it in terms of
Speaker 2: thinking about how many people have the ability to move
Speaker 2: from a renter to a home, but also how much
Speaker 2: private equity and other businesses have gone into the real
Speaker 2: estate market and changed the structure of in America, particularly
Speaker 2: since the financial crisis in two thousand and eight two
Speaker 2: thousand and nine.
Speaker 1: When one of those underpinnings of the American dream, the
Speaker 1: idea that you could own your own home, came under
Speaker 1: assault then and it's only gotten.
Speaker 2: Harder, right exactly. And you know, this whole idea of
Speaker 2: the renters and homeowners is something that we really do
Speaker 2: see changing in America. I mean, rent costs went up
Speaker 2: a lot in the last few years when we've been
Speaker 2: talking about inflation. That's one of the big drivers of
Speaker 2: those inflation numbers being so high, and that is something
Speaker 2: that structurally has changed in America and is something that
Speaker 2: policymakers are dealing with and that no matter who wins
Speaker 2: the pre residential race in November twenty twenty four, will
Speaker 2: have to deal with.
Speaker 1: So as the Democrats try to figure out how to
Speaker 1: wrestle their way out of the economics messaging conundrum, they
Speaker 1: do have some other issues that suggest from voting patterns
Speaker 1: that they do have some wind at their back. One
Speaker 1: of the big ones, and it'll be an interesting one,
Speaker 1: I think, are reproductive rights. The Supreme Court in the
Speaker 1: Dobbs decision overturned Roe v.
Speaker 2: Wade.
Speaker 1: That certainly was a factor I think in the midterm
Speaker 1: elections in twenty twenty two. It's undoubtedly going to be
Speaker 1: an electoral issue in twenty twenty four. And some interesting
Speaker 1: things have been happening in states where you would think
Speaker 1: red states have actually come out to protect women's rights
Speaker 1: to access reproductive healthcare and abortions as needed. Kansas famously.
Speaker 1: How do you see that playing out as an issue
Speaker 1: for the Democrats in twenty twenty four, Well.
Speaker 2: I definitely think it's going to be one of the
Speaker 2: issues that they are going to lean into and we're
Speaker 2: doing a lot of reporting a bloomberg right now not
Speaker 2: only on people's feelings about the economy and inflation, but
Speaker 2: does that matter more than something like the decision on
Speaker 2: Row And as you were saying, Tim, there are a
Speaker 2: number of cultural societal issues, civil rights issues that people
Speaker 2: are looking at in this race, and that at the
Speaker 2: end of the day may matter even more than the economy.
Speaker 2: That remains to be seen, but it is going to
Speaker 2: be something that we're going to be tracking because there
Speaker 2: have been so many huge decisions made at the Supreme
Speaker 2: Court level, not only Roe, but affirmative Action and then
Speaker 2: the student loan decision, So there are some signature things
Speaker 2: that have changed in the country since twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: And on the Dobbs decision and reproductive rights, it obviously
Speaker 1: resonates very powerfully for female voters, and they are an
Speaker 1: all important voting block in swing states and in the
Speaker 1: suburbs of big cities in swing states. So that's going
Speaker 1: to be a very interesting phenomenon to watch play out
Speaker 1: how that decision lights up the electorate in those important
Speaker 1: swing states.
Speaker 2: That's right, and it is also an issue that Republicans
Speaker 2: and the Republican can dates are having to decide in
Speaker 2: their own states and also in the presidential election where
Speaker 2: they stand on it, because there's differences between the different
Speaker 2: Republican candidates in terms of where they fall not only
Speaker 2: on row but on reproductive rights. So I think that's
Speaker 2: another place where we're going to be watching how that
Speaker 2: resonates for voters in different states around America.
Speaker 1: I often think of foreign policy as a weak tea
Speaker 1: when it comes to winning the allegiance of voters. You know,
Speaker 1: we elites, or we academics, or we observers, we journalists
Speaker 1: pay attention to foreign affairs in a way that the
Speaker 1: average voter doesn't. But I do think the Biden administration
Speaker 1: has conducted a fairly exemplary policy in bobbing and weaving
Speaker 1: out of how to support Ukraine in the wake of
Speaker 1: the Russian invasion and building coalitions in Europe, realigning Visa
Speaker 1: v China in East Asia. I don't know that that'll
Speaker 1: have any meaning politically, but I do think it does
Speaker 1: adhere to the idea of adult governance in a complim world.
Speaker 2: I certainly think you're right on that, and I think
Speaker 2: China is a big issue in this presidential race. There
Speaker 2: may not be as many voters who really glom onto
Speaker 2: the specifics of foreign policy and foreign policy stances like
Speaker 2: you were saying, But I do think China is a
Speaker 2: big issue for a lot of American voters in terms
Speaker 2: of how do we stay competitive so that we're able
Speaker 2: to keep our jobs or keep our communities growing and robust.
Speaker 2: So that is something that the Biden administration is really
Speaker 2: trying to make a signature part of their campaign, pointing
Speaker 2: to things like the Chips Act and ways that they're
Speaker 2: trying to bring factories back to America into towns. It
Speaker 2: will be interesting to see, though, if people actually see
Speaker 2: the impact of that by the time we get to
Speaker 2: November twenty twenty four, right. I mean, it's not easy
Speaker 2: to build the factory in six months, So that's one
Speaker 2: of the issues. And then the other that you mentioned
Speaker 2: on the Ukraine Russia War. It certainly changed so much
Speaker 2: over the past couple of years, and we are seeing
Speaker 2: them Washington some support starting to wane for spending the
Speaker 2: type of money and providing the type of aid to
Speaker 2: Ukraine that we did in the past. So that is
Speaker 2: going to be something that we're going to have to
Speaker 2: watch really closely.
Speaker 1: You know, I mentioned in referencing how the Biden foreign
Speaker 1: policy has been conducted as being adult or mature. Where
Speaker 1: does this idea of sort of adult management of the
Speaker 1: federal government reside with voters? You know, coming out of
Speaker 1: the confusion and chaos and attempts to sort of torch
Speaker 1: the constitution during the Trump era. Biden is old, but
Speaker 1: he surrounded himself with a competent team. They've tried to
Speaker 1: execute in a rational way against clearheaded policies. Does that
Speaker 1: matter to voters or does emotion always win the day?
Speaker 1: Is the cult around the far right of trump Ism
Speaker 1: and then just standard Republican political allegiances, Does that sort
Speaker 1: of emotional affiliation win the day over demonstrable proofs of
Speaker 1: just you have your hands on the steering wheel and
Speaker 1: the car is staying in its lane.
Speaker 2: Well, I think for a lot of voters, the car
Speaker 2: staying in its lane is very important. That feeling of
Speaker 2: stability was something that we saw in the twenty twenty
Speaker 2: election be very important in terms that people wanted a
Speaker 2: bit more common stability in the country. I will say though,
Speaker 2: that there are a lot of people and the candidates
Speaker 2: on the Republican side are talking about this a lot
Speaker 2: who are thinking about how much we're spending as a
Speaker 2: government and whether or not that is the amount that
Speaker 2: we should be. So I think the Republicans are touching
Speaker 2: on a nerve there when you talk about government spending
Speaker 2: versus what the states are spending, and I think on
Speaker 2: either side of the aisle, people are very frustrated by
Speaker 2: the lack of or the perception of the lack of
Speaker 2: things getting done at all in Washington, let alone efficiently.
Speaker 1: And well, yeah, we'll come back to that a little
Speaker 1: bit later when we talk about the threat of apostible
Speaker 1: government shutdown. But while we're focused right now on the Democrats,
Speaker 1: I think some of the issues that weigh against them.
Speaker 1: The one of the ones that just seems stark ast
Speaker 1: to me as immigration. The Trump administration came under a
Speaker 1: lot of fire for how it conducted both governance of
Speaker 1: the border and the management of migrants and families and children. Famously,
Speaker 1: Trump tried to build a wall. Famously, I feel like
Speaker 1: the Biden administration hasn't really tackled that problem, and we're
Speaker 1: seeing some of the ramifications of that with migrants coming
Speaker 1: into cities and federal work rules don't make it easy
Speaker 1: for migrants to get a job so they can pay
Speaker 1: for their own food in housing, so the taxpayer ends
Speaker 1: up having to pick up the tab for housing and food.
Speaker 1: That's become a flashpoint in a lot of places. There's
Speaker 1: been cynicism around how some of the migrants got to
Speaker 1: the cities. Obviously then bus there courtesy of Greg Abbott
Speaker 1: and his constituents in Texas. But be that as it may,
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of clarity of vision or of
Speaker 1: political and policy purpose from the Dems around how to
Speaker 1: deal with immigration in a holistic way.
Speaker 2: I think that's right. I think you've seen that going
Speaker 2: back many administrations. Though I will say that on both
Speaker 2: the Democrat and Republican side that this has been an
Speaker 2: that the country has grappled with and not been able
Speaker 2: to find a comprehensive solution for. And we're seeing cities
Speaker 2: really start to break under the strain of it. I
Speaker 2: mean it's New York, Chicago, Boston, as well as cities
Speaker 2: on the border and in Florida and in California. So
Speaker 2: it is becoming a national issue that people are seeing
Speaker 2: on television, they're seeing when they walk around their cities
Speaker 2: and towns, and it is such a human issue too.
Speaker 2: I mean, I do think we have to remember that.
Speaker 2: What I think is one of the things that the
Speaker 2: Biden administration has really struggled on is the fact that
Speaker 2: they did try about a year ago to talk a
Speaker 2: lot about their Latin American policy and how they could
Speaker 2: try to address the root of the problem in terms
Speaker 2: of unrest in some of the countries there.
Speaker 1: That is forcing migrants north exactly, local corruption, poverty, all
Speaker 1: the things that are making families for good reason try
Speaker 1: to come north to the US to a safe Harvard exactly.
Speaker 2: And that's real, but that also is a big problem
Speaker 2: in terms of, well, how do you solve that? And
Speaker 2: they have been trying to to encourage more private investment
Speaker 2: and deal with some of the countries in Latin America,
Speaker 2: but that's been very difficult and we haven't seen a
Speaker 2: lot of signs of improvement there, so I think their
Speaker 2: ability to message how much improvement they're making on that
Speaker 2: front is limited. And then I think the other issue
Speaker 2: is that Biden really does need Congress to help to
Speaker 2: pass some legislation that would make some big changes around immigration,
Speaker 2: and they're pretty realistic from our reporting that there's not
Speaker 2: a lot of hope there that that's going to get
Speaker 2: done before the November twenty twenty four election.
Speaker 1: You know, cities that are struggling to house and support
Speaker 1: migrants have also struggled in the COVID era around public safety,
Speaker 1: and that's been a big flashpoint as well. Some of
Speaker 1: the crime statistics have been sensationalized. Actually, the homicide rate
Speaker 1: has come down sharply in recent months and even over
Speaker 1: the last year, but I still think there's a public
Speaker 1: perception that street crime is rampant in many of our
Speaker 1: big cities, and in some places shoplifting and looting of
Speaker 1: stores has been ran and that tends to be a
Speaker 1: local issue. Most presidents are hostage to governors and mayors
Speaker 1: around that issue, but it is probably something I think
Speaker 1: Republicans are going to continue to try to hang around
Speaker 1: Biden's neck. How do you think of that playing out
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four as an issue.
Speaker 2: I think it will be a big issue, and I
Speaker 2: think to your point, Tim, it will be one that
Speaker 2: they do try to put at the feet of Biden.
Speaker 2: I think the issue of crime will be a big
Speaker 2: one because again, it relates to people in their towns
Speaker 2: and cities all across America, and I do want to
Speaker 2: make sure that we do separate the immigration issue and
Speaker 2: migrant issue from crime, although oftentimes it is conflated. But
Speaker 2: as you said, the number of times we hear or
Speaker 2: see on TV instances of shop limiting and stores, or
Speaker 2: just a number of cars that are being stolen, and
Speaker 2: we have Bloomberg have reported about the uptick in cars
Speaker 2: being stolen. That's again it goes back to things like inflation.
Speaker 2: When people can see it in their own towns or
Speaker 2: hear their own friends talk about, Oh, someone broken to
Speaker 2: my car and stole my car, my car, keys or whatnot,
Speaker 2: that's very relatable and much easier to shift the thinking
Speaker 2: of people on well, who's going to lead us out
Speaker 2: of this situation. I do also think again, the pandemic
Speaker 2: has changed a lot of people's lives in America, and
Speaker 2: we are still trying to recover from them, work.
Speaker 1: Through all of the kind of existential and unusual challenges
Speaker 1: that presented that may well have been temporary exactly.
Speaker 2: And the number of people who got thrown out of
Speaker 2: the job market in March April May of twenty twenty
Speaker 2: and who are still rebuilding their lives. I mean there's
Speaker 2: still a lot of people who never went back into
Speaker 2: the job market after the pandemic, and there are others
Speaker 2: that started a whole new kind of career or business
Speaker 2: or whatnot. But there's so much fluidity still in our economy,
Speaker 2: so many people who moved around, and I think we're
Speaker 2: still settling from all of it.
Speaker 1: One of the last policy issues I wanted to focus
Speaker 1: on before we take a break is healthcare. I don't
Speaker 1: know entirely how to think about where the Biden administration
Speaker 1: is with this, other than healthcare is still a massively
Speaker 1: unaffordable thing for too many Americans. Insurance is prohibitively expensive.
Speaker 1: I think there is an economic consequence of workers who
Speaker 1: just don't get proper healthcare, families who can't deliver health
Speaker 1: care to their children so their children can grow up
Speaker 1: and be educated, productive members of society. It feels to
Speaker 1: me like it should be a tent pole policy issue
Speaker 1: that we figured out. There's some measures around there the
Speaker 1: Biden administration has taken to deal with that, most recently
Speaker 1: empowering medicare to negotiate with big pharma companies around drug prices.
Speaker 1: And yet the roles of the uninsured are growing again.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of people being dropped off of state
Speaker 1: insurance roles in large numbers four million recently, it may
Speaker 1: grow to as much as ten million next year. Where
Speaker 1: will healthcare reside for voters when they think about whether
Speaker 1: or not the Biden administration has helped them solve some
Speaker 1: of the most basic problems.
Speaker 2: Well, Tim, you just talked about the Medicare and drug pricing.
Speaker 2: That is another one of the signature achievements that the
Speaker 2: Biden administration will point to, and they're hoping that another
Speaker 2: big voting block and important voting block that being seniors,
Speaker 2: is going to feel that and credit them for it.
Speaker 2: The issue, though, again, is it's not necessarily something so tangible.
Speaker 2: Same is what we're talking about with infrastructure, where you
Speaker 2: can see a building in your town and credit it
Speaker 2: to Biden. The likelihood that that's going to happen between
Speaker 2: now and November twenty twenty four, even though they pass
Speaker 2: the infrastructure bill, is low, and the number of people
Speaker 2: who may see their drug prices go down and instantly
Speaker 2: credit Biden with it, I think is also kind of
Speaker 2: going to be a challenge for the Biden camp to
Speaker 2: keep reminding people of that if nothing else but healthcare
Speaker 2: is one of the issues in this country that on
Speaker 2: both sides of the aisle people do think needs improvement.
Speaker 2: Let alone is broken, maybe depending on who you talk too.
Speaker 2: So I do think it's going to be an issue,
Speaker 2: but it's going to be one of those bubbling issues
Speaker 2: as opposed to boiling.
Speaker 1: On that note, we're going to take a quick break
Speaker 1: to hear from one of our sponsors and then we'll
Speaker 1: come right back. We're back with Peggy Collins, Washington bureau
Speaker 1: chief for Bloomberg News, and we're focusing on the battle
Speaker 1: for the White House in twenty twenty four, and we've
Speaker 1: been talking about the Democrats, so let's turn to the GOP.
Speaker 1: We began talking to the Democrats about its leadership, centering
Speaker 1: that discussion initially around Joe Biden. Thinking about where the
Speaker 1: leadership is right now for the GOP, to me, is
Speaker 1: a more complex project. You have Mitch McConnell, you have
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy, you obviously have Donald Trump, and you have
Speaker 1: a fractious and fractured party. When you think about leadership
Speaker 1: of the GOP going into twenty twenty four, what resonates with.
Speaker 2: You, Well, certainly a lot of our reporting is showing
Speaker 2: that the party still see for President Trump as one
Speaker 2: of its key leaders, in the sense that he's directing
Speaker 2: the way some of the party is not only going,
Speaker 2: but what they're doing on certain policy issues. But Kevin
Speaker 2: McCarthy has really could.
Speaker 1: I stop you for one second, because I'm curious about this.
Speaker 1: When we say that the party sees Trump as its leader,
Speaker 1: we know that in primaries it's the most passionate voters
Speaker 1: in both parties who come out and vote in primaries.
Speaker 1: That also tends to be the same population of people
Speaker 1: who respond to poles. And I wonder to the extent
Speaker 1: when we see these polling numbers for Trump where he's
Speaker 1: double digits ahead of everyone else, well ahead of Ronda Santis,
Speaker 1: who's now fallen behind the vek Ramaswami and Nikki Haley
Speaker 1: and Chris Christy. Are those polls really reflective of the
Speaker 1: party or are they reflective of the most passionate members
Speaker 1: of the party who have an affinity for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, I think we've seen time and time again that
Speaker 2: polls haven't been right, so I think it's right to
Speaker 2: have a question mark over them. I do think you're right, Tim,
Speaker 2: in the sense that a lot of what we're hearing
Speaker 2: right now, and where people are taking the temperature is
Speaker 2: around the most passionate early primary voters, who you would
Speaker 2: think are likely to go for Trump. However, I will say,
Speaker 2: because of his messaging and because of his power potentially
Speaker 2: with those primary voters, Trump is still having a lot
Speaker 2: of sway in terms of where Republicans dodge or weave
Speaker 2: or go.
Speaker 1: I cut you off to focus on that when you
Speaker 1: were about to say something that I'm sure was interesting
Speaker 1: about Kevin McCarthy. So let's go back to that.
Speaker 2: Well, I was going to say that Kevin McCarthy has
Speaker 2: had a number of moments this year where people might
Speaker 2: have expected he couldn't get something done, and he did actually,
Speaker 2: and it's because his party is so fractured right now.
Speaker 2: He is really trying to corral some very passionate groups
Speaker 2: of people within his party that are on pretty different
Speaker 2: sides of issues in many cases. But we did see
Speaker 2: him pull it out in the debt ceiling debate. I mean,
Speaker 2: they took us up right to the last minute, working
Speaker 2: through Memorial Day weekend, but he was able to bring
Speaker 2: them together and get a consensus. We're starting to see
Speaker 2: some of that build somewhat right now as we head
Speaker 2: into the government shutdown, But he's got a very thin
Speaker 2: line to walk because they are able to oust him
Speaker 2: as a speaker much more easily now than for speakers
Speaker 2: in the past.
Speaker 1: And if he wants to get legislation passed on a
Speaker 1: Republican line vote, he can only afford to lose. For Republicans, right.
Speaker 2: It's razor thin. And if you flip that for the
Speaker 2: Democrats in Biden, it's the same for them. And right
Speaker 2: now it's so difficult to get anything passed in Washington
Speaker 2: because you're really counting on a handful of people to
Speaker 2: come with you or not.
Speaker 1: And you know, as we speak right now, they are
Speaker 1: in the midst of looking at getting appropriations bills through
Speaker 1: and getting a deal done to keep the government open.
Speaker 1: And McCarthy I think had a choice between either tilting
Speaker 1: towards moderate Democrats who wanted to work with him and
Speaker 1: negotiate on a compromise bill, or going to his right
Speaker 1: the Maga folks who sort of held him hostage for
Speaker 1: his speakership and gave him a bill of particular surrounding
Speaker 1: how he had to conduct himself as speaker. That left
Speaker 1: him I think a little hamstrung, and he's made a
Speaker 1: choice at least right now as we speak, that he's
Speaker 1: going to tilt right and try to get this done. There.
Speaker 1: I sort of wonder if he can't, if he's fatally wounded,
Speaker 1: and if his constituency on the right, in the Republican
Speaker 1: Party in the House feels like he hasn't met their expectations,
Speaker 1: that they'll just happily pull the rug out and I'll
Speaker 1: have nowhere else to lean on because he's blown everyone
Speaker 1: else off.
Speaker 2: Well, I think the one risk to that, and that
Speaker 2: all of the Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill have
Speaker 2: right now when it comes to the government shutdown, that
Speaker 2: this again is something that's very relatable for the American people.
Speaker 2: You know, hey, you need to keep the doors open,
Speaker 2: the bill's paid, and so I think there's a risk
Speaker 2: for everyone in Congress right now if you're going to
Speaker 2: be the person who's going to basically shut the government down,
Speaker 2: and then we have people who aren't able to go
Speaker 2: to work, we have natural parks that aren't open, we
Speaker 2: have checks that don't go out that people are expecting.
Speaker 2: So I think there's a risk on this one, like
Speaker 2: there was with the debt ceiling, that if you're the
Speaker 2: one standing in the way of getting something reasonable done
Speaker 2: that most people in their lives would think is a
Speaker 2: part of your normal job, that you might not go
Speaker 2: right off the cliff.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, when was the last time we couldn't
Speaker 1: get a bipartisan defense spending bill pass? That seemed extraordinary
Speaker 1: to me.
Speaker 2: Well, it is a sign of how fractured not only
Speaker 2: you know, Washington and Republican and Democrats are, but as
Speaker 2: you were saying, Tim like the fractures within the Republican
Speaker 2: party itself.
Speaker 1: The other thing that is interesting to me about this
Speaker 1: era we're in, and I think it's one of the
Speaker 1: lessons of trump Ism, is that Trump campaigned on emotion,
Speaker 1: not on policy. I think he sensationalized race and anti
Speaker 1: institutionalism to incent a certain population of the voters, and
Speaker 1: that has sort of captured the party's imagination. There's an
Speaker 1: utter lack of policy prescriptions. To the time, the Republicans
Speaker 1: rolled into the twenty twenty Republican Convention with no platform
Speaker 1: and sort of happily said, yes, that's by design. It
Speaker 1: wasn't an accident. We just don't have a platform. How
Speaker 1: do you think about that? Is this the shape of
Speaker 1: political battles now, is that it's by design not going
Speaker 1: to have policy prescriptions, and it's by design going to
Speaker 1: appeal to people's emotions and in some cases some of
Speaker 1: their worst instincts.
Speaker 2: Well, I think emotions are easier to push buttons on right,
Speaker 2: love and fear and all of those. And I also
Speaker 2: think in the age of social media, it's a lot
Speaker 2: easier to hit people with emotions faster and on the
Speaker 2: fly and on their phone. So I think there's that.
Speaker 2: I also think policy is very difficult, Like we've already
Speaker 2: talked about some really really hard problems, like solving immigration
Speaker 2: is a big problem for not only cities, but for
Speaker 2: our relations with other countries. So I think sometimes tapping
Speaker 2: into emotions is just an easier route than trying to
Speaker 2: really figure out how we want to deal with trade
Speaker 2: with China or how to deal with AI and coming
Speaker 2: up with a US policy on what we do with
Speaker 2: artificial intelligence. So that I do think is one of
Speaker 2: the reasons why it's easier to tap people's emotions.
Speaker 1: And it's you know, it's not a good hallmark for
Speaker 1: a mature, well functioning society when you tackle emotions and
Speaker 1: don't tackle problems. Well.
Speaker 2: I think it is. One of the things that we
Speaker 2: do elect people for is to actually help us solve
Speaker 2: some problems that cut across states and cities and counties,
Speaker 2: and that is what people are hoping people in office
Speaker 2: will do well.
Speaker 1: But that's our conundrums human beings is we want policy solutions,
Speaker 1: but we tend to vote with our hearts.
Speaker 2: That's right, and we tend to vote for people who like,
Speaker 2: we relate to, or we like or things like that.
Speaker 2: So I think that's human as well.
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis' candidacy has been interesting to me because he
Speaker 1: was built up as someone who could be Trump in
Speaker 1: a better fitting suit and be an ambassador for some
Speaker 1: of the things that he did as governor in Florida
Speaker 1: that might get national traction. And then he really came
Speaker 1: out of the gates with this anti woke platform. You
Speaker 1: know that your schools, the educational agenda was being taken
Speaker 1: over by liberals and by woke people and people of color,
Speaker 1: and that wokeism was this poison spread acast America. It
Speaker 1: just didn't get any traction. It might have sold in Florida,
Speaker 1: but it didn't work for him nationally. And he's got
Speaker 1: any number of oddities about him as a candidate that
Speaker 1: I think hold him back. People discount how authentically charismatic
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is. It's not easy just to repackage yourself
Speaker 1: as Donald Trump. I was just wondering what you thought
Speaker 1: about DeSantis stumbling and these other candidates, some who are
Speaker 1: also expressly sort of Trump wannabes like Ramaswami, others who
Speaker 1: are expressly Trump critics like Chris Christi, and then others
Speaker 1: sort of trying to figure out the middle road between
Speaker 1: those like Nikki Haley. How does that sort out in
Speaker 1: the second tier of sort of people galloping behind Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, I think a couple of things you touched on there.
Speaker 2: So Ronda sat had a really big night the midterm elections,
Speaker 2: and I think a lot of that actually had to
Speaker 2: do with his COVID policies, you know, more so than
Speaker 2: maybe some of the cultural issues he then started to
Speaker 2: turn to. I think a lot of our reporting has
Speaker 2: shown that people in the business community and on Wall
Speaker 2: Street had wished he had stayed more in the lane
Speaker 2: or focusing on the policies that he has enacted in Florida,
Speaker 2: not only maybe around COVID, but in terms of tax
Speaker 2: policy and things about crime and schools in Florida, so
Speaker 2: kind of staying on those issues, but instead he really
Speaker 2: did kind of go into the farther right cultural issues.
Speaker 1: Tried to chase Disney out of the state of Florida right,
Speaker 1: major employer and taxpayer right.
Speaker 2: And that's another sign of where the Republican Party is shifting.
Speaker 2: You know, decades ago, the Republican Party was very pro business,
Speaker 2: and that's a shift now. Some voters really do gravitate
Speaker 2: to DeSantis because of his policies around Disney, but others
Speaker 2: in the business community find that counterproductive to what they're
Speaker 2: looking for, which is really lower taxes or policies that
Speaker 2: help business. So I think that's the Desanta side of things.
Speaker 2: We talked about foreign policy earlier, but one of the
Speaker 2: breakout moments for candidate Nikki Haley in the first Republican
Speaker 2: debate was actually her handling of the questions around foreign policy,
Speaker 2: and her strength on that showed through on the stage.
Speaker 2: So I think this second Republican debate on September twenty
Speaker 2: seventh will be a real moment to see if people
Speaker 2: like Haley, who made some traction in the first debate,
Speaker 2: can add more momentum to their campaign.
Speaker 1: And Trump has said he's not going to be at
Speaker 1: this debate and stead he's going to speak to the
Speaker 1: United Auto Workers union. That's interesting because Trump has always
Speaker 1: positive in himself as a friend of the working American,
Speaker 1: even if he's pursued policies that actually haven't resulted in
Speaker 1: tangible benefits for working class people. Can he just sort
Speaker 1: of skate by the debate processes. He's sort of floating
Speaker 1: on that both the traction he has with a meaningful, say,
Speaker 1: thirty percent of Republican voters, and his own celebrity, that
Speaker 1: he just doesn't need to show up at any of
Speaker 1: these debates.
Speaker 2: So far, it seems like that's right. I mean, he
Speaker 2: skipped the first debate. He had counterprogramming on social media
Speaker 2: where he was interviewed by Tucker Carlson, and it really
Speaker 2: didn't seem to dent him in any meaningful way. If anything,
Speaker 2: it really made the ground shift between the other Republican
Speaker 2: candidates more because they weren't really fighting him, they had
Speaker 2: to kind of dig in with each other. I will
Speaker 2: say that it's quite interesting that Trump's going to show
Speaker 2: up in Detroit on the same day that the other
Speaker 2: GOP candidates are in California. To your point, him, he
Speaker 2: really has made a lot of strides with blue collar
Speaker 2: workers and particularly union workers, which are historically more aligned
Speaker 2: with the Democrats. And it's really interesting because President Biden
Speaker 2: has made himself potentially the biggest pro union president of
Speaker 2: our time. So seeing whether or not Trump is going
Speaker 2: to be able to resonate with union workers in a
Speaker 2: swing state like Michigan is going to be a real
Speaker 2: sign of how he could do next year.
Speaker 1: Which was a move Ronald Reagan perfected back with the teamsters.
Speaker 1: Certain candidates have effectively done this out of the GOP
Speaker 1: in the past.
Speaker 2: I do think the issue of the union workers and
Speaker 2: the autoworkers in Michigan also has some tension built into
Speaker 2: it for Biden because there's not too much he can
Speaker 2: do in terms of pulling levers to make this happen
Speaker 2: for the UAW workers. But also it's wrapped up in
Speaker 2: some of the policies that Biden has been promoting, which
Speaker 2: is he's very pro union and pro worker, but at
Speaker 2: the same time, some of his IRA money has been
Speaker 2: pushing towards electric vehicles and pushing the car industry in
Speaker 2: that direction, which has some of the workers there saying like,
Speaker 2: we want to make sure we have protections as we
Speaker 2: move into some of these type of futuristic jobs.
Speaker 1: In fact, some of that spending has been in right
Speaker 1: to work states, red states that are non unionized, and
Speaker 1: Biden is in this kind of where on the one hand,
Speaker 1: he I think rightly sees climate change as an existential
Speaker 1: threat and is trying to use the force of the
Speaker 1: federal budget and federal policy to address that by supporting
Speaker 1: the development of electric vehicles, which is a good national
Speaker 1: goal in my mind. At the same time, the unions
Speaker 1: and the auto workers, who have not seen wage increases
Speaker 1: meaningfully in decades, are agitating for that and are understandably
Speaker 1: fearful of that kind of change. And Biden has to
Speaker 1: decide where does he come down to what's the solemnic
Speaker 1: solution to having these worthy goals and a constituency that
Speaker 1: wants him to act in a certain way. And I
Speaker 1: think one of the tests for his leadership is what
Speaker 1: limb will he walk out on? Because he's got to
Speaker 1: walk out on one of them. I think at some
Speaker 1: point he can't have it both.
Speaker 2: Ways, And how do you message that right in a
Speaker 2: clear and succinct way to people that make them understand
Speaker 2: that you're fighting for them, but you're also looking ahead
Speaker 2: to the future, right.
Speaker 1: You know, there have been you know, famously Lyndon Johnson
Speaker 1: after the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act
Speaker 1: got pushed through in the early nineteen sixties, his advisors
Speaker 1: in the White House said Democrats have lost the South
Speaker 1: forever because of this, and Johnson famously said, well, then
Speaker 1: what's a presidency for that. Sometimes you have to risk
Speaker 1: your presidency to get on the right side of a
Speaker 1: good legislation. And I don't know that Biden is there yet.
Speaker 1: And I think this is about McCarthy too. You know,
Speaker 1: McCarthy hungered for the speakership and now he's right in
Speaker 1: the middle in this government shutdown negotiation. He's gonna have
Speaker 1: to pick some size just to get political handiwork done,
Speaker 1: and he may not be able to appease both. And
Speaker 1: it's not clear to me yet that he has the
Speaker 1: kind of backbone to drive in there and make a
Speaker 1: kind of leadership decision like that.
Speaker 2: But the interesting thing, Tim, I think is that when
Speaker 2: you think about leaders over time, that people do often
Speaker 2: gravitate to the leaders that are willing to ultimately make
Speaker 2: a hard decision because they kind of understand that. Well,
Speaker 2: at least they thought about what I said, and then
Speaker 2: ultimately they made a decision. But they're driving us towards something.
Speaker 2: Indecision by a leader is sometimes the worst kiss of death. Exactly.
Speaker 1: Okay, we're going to take another break. I could just
Speaker 1: keep going right past these breaks with you, but we're
Speaker 1: going to take a break and then we'll come back
Speaker 1: and pick this discussion up again. I'm back with Peggy Collins,
Speaker 1: Washington Bureau chief of Bloomberg News, and we're talking politics.
Speaker 1: We've talked about the Democrats and the Republicans, Peggy, so
Speaker 1: let's talk about how they'll actually face off in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four. You know, we left off talking about where
Speaker 1: the Republicans are situated. Donald Trump has four criminal indictments
Speaker 1: sitting on his doorstep. It hasn't pulled him down on
Speaker 1: the polls. It appears that loyalists don't care if he
Speaker 1: breaks the law, even if he gets convicted of it.
Speaker 1: So that's unlikely to be a factor at this point. Though.
Speaker 1: I wonder if the trials play out, if some of
Speaker 1: these come into a courtroom, Georgia will be televised. These
Speaker 1: things tend to have an impact people can't anticipate once
Speaker 1: the public starts paying attention. It happened with the January
Speaker 1: sixth hearings. It's a wild card with the indictment. Still,
Speaker 1: I think, do you think there are vulnerabilities or around
Speaker 1: his candidacy that Democrats haven't exploited yet?
Speaker 2: Well, I think that what they're waiting to see, as
Speaker 2: you said, Tim, is the intersection of the two. So
Speaker 2: Trump has definitely made a strategic move to tie his
Speaker 2: legal battles and his campaign very closely. He hasn't tried
Speaker 2: to like shed one for the other. Instead, he's really
Speaker 2: intertwined them and kind of said to voters, you know
Speaker 2: that he feels the legal cases are unjust and as
Speaker 2: part of an effort to obstruct his ability to win
Speaker 2: for president again. But as you said, will the Biden
Speaker 2: administration and the Biden campaign, as we get closer to
Speaker 2: the time that Trump has to step into a courtroom
Speaker 2: be able to really tie the two for voters in
Speaker 2: terms of democracy and that theme and really hit on that.
Speaker 2: We saw the Biden administration and Biden himself make a
Speaker 2: big speech right before the November midterms where he really
Speaker 2: honed in on this is an election about democray. Will
Speaker 2: he be able to do that at key times next
Speaker 2: year if Trump is still the front runner that it
Speaker 2: really resonates for people if they're seeing Trump in a
Speaker 2: courtroom on TV related to January sixth.
Speaker 1: So take me to task if I'm being too reductionists
Speaker 1: in this next question. But I'm thinking about six swing
Speaker 1: states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Will twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four come down to where voters in those six
Speaker 1: states decide to place their votes.
Speaker 2: Well, we're definitely looking at those states, and we've been
Speaker 2: sending reporters there all year already to talk to things
Speaker 2: about how they feel about the economy and a lot
Speaker 2: of the other issues in the campaign. I will say
Speaker 2: we've also got our eyes on a few other states
Speaker 2: as well. A lot of people moved during the pandemic
Speaker 2: and brought their votes with them. We're looking at states
Speaker 2: like North Carolina as well. Virginia is also an interesting
Speaker 2: state Colorado. But the states that you just mentioned, those
Speaker 2: six key swing states that in twenty twenty were swing,
Speaker 2: are certainly going to be interesting. A couple of signs
Speaker 2: of why we saw the first Republican Debate placed in Milwaukee,
Speaker 2: the Republican Convention next summer in Milwaukee. So the Ross
Speaker 2: Belt for Biden and for Trump is going to be
Speaker 2: huge again. And then the midterms, and in many ways
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, you know, Georgia was absolutely crucial. So those
Speaker 2: are places where we're really trying to get a sense
Speaker 2: of what people care about most and how that will
Speaker 2: influence their vote.
Speaker 1: Another interesting factor in this next election could be at
Speaker 1: third party movement No Labels. They call themselves No Labels.
Speaker 1: They're not very transparent that crew about how they're funded
Speaker 1: or who's behind it. They are asserting that they're an
Speaker 1: authentically independent, nonpartisan movement that just wants to give voters
Speaker 1: another option. No Labels critics say they're actually just a spoiler,
Speaker 1: that they're in there to strip independence away from Biden
Speaker 1: and then make it easier for Trump, who's a weaker
Speaker 1: national candidate than he is as a primary candidate, to
Speaker 1: make it easier for him to win at the national level.
Speaker 1: How do you think about No Labels at this point?
Speaker 1: Is it much ado about nothing or are they going
Speaker 1: to be a factor.
Speaker 2: I think what we've been hearing most about No Labels
Speaker 2: divides into two camps. One when you think about the
Speaker 2: business community, even some on Wall Street, they're a bit
Speaker 2: intrigued and you know, looking at it because they think
Speaker 2: that the no Labels camp is voicing some of that
Speaker 2: more pro business tax policy, moderate Republican policy stance that
Speaker 2: some of them are gravitating for and don't see in
Speaker 2: the field right now. And then on the Democratic side,
Speaker 2: as you were saying to him, most of what we
Speaker 2: hear is this concern that any type of third party
Speaker 2: or even another Democrat right against Biden could really dent
Speaker 2: to him enough with independent voters that it could make
Speaker 2: the difference.
Speaker 1: So in an environment like this, like, how do you
Speaker 1: think about deploying your artillery and spreading them out? Like
Speaker 1: what are priorities for you as you're managing both the
Speaker 1: way you task your reporters and the kind of information
Speaker 1: or themes you want them to bring back home to
Speaker 1: your readers.
Speaker 2: Well, one of the most important things I've been saying
Speaker 2: in the newsroom here in DC is that we want
Speaker 2: to make sure that we can credibly say to people
Speaker 2: next summer, next fall, in twenty twenty four that Bloomberg
Speaker 2: has been out in the different states around the country
Speaker 2: to talk to people on the ground really about how
Speaker 2: they feel about the economy, what they think about the
Speaker 2: people who are running for office, not just drop in
Speaker 2: from New York or DC in October twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: We want to hear from them now and stay in
Speaker 2: touch with them. So another big theme for us is
Speaker 2: going to be on the economy. How much will the
Speaker 2: economy matter? Because this is a place where Bloomberg really shines.
Speaker 2: We have a lot of people who are really knowledgeable
Speaker 2: about the economy, about inflation, about trade, about the FED,
Speaker 2: and we can really add some value, I think, in
Speaker 2: that space to really delineate how people feel about the
Speaker 2: economy and whether or not it is actually ultimately the
Speaker 2: factor that drives people's vote. And I think the third
Speaker 2: thing we're really looking at is this shift in industrial
Speaker 2: policy because of the Biden administration's legislative wins. Does it
Speaker 2: actually resonate in different places around the country that they
Speaker 2: have been able to put some money into new factories,
Speaker 2: new jobs, clean energy, or does it end up not
Speaker 2: either coming to communities in time for the election, or
Speaker 2: they don't get credit for it and it doesn't end
Speaker 2: up mattering.
Speaker 1: You know, I always think of good politics as bread
Speaker 1: and butter issues like jobs, education, and healthcare. Elections come
Speaker 1: and go, but there's been a fairly steady readout from
Speaker 1: voters for decades that those are the things. They want
Speaker 1: food on the table, they want a better future for
Speaker 1: their kids, they want a roof over their head. And
Speaker 1: then there's a lot of other issues that we all
Speaker 1: are concerned about, but they're not as central to most voters. Thinking,
Speaker 1: you've watched a number of elections at this point over
Speaker 1: the years, what is there about this election that's different
Speaker 1: for you, distinctly different from other elections that you've watched
Speaker 1: and participated in.
Speaker 2: I think one of the things that's going to be
Speaker 2: most distinctly different from twenty twenty because you know, twenty
Speaker 2: twenty was the year of the pandemic, but we are
Speaker 2: certainly coming out of it now hopefully and settling in
Speaker 2: as the effect of that, he's almost like coming out
Speaker 2: of a war, right, How does that actually change what
Speaker 2: people want with their lives from their country, where they live,
Speaker 2: and how they think the future or what the future
Speaker 2: should look like. So I do think that's one of
Speaker 2: the biggest macro issues that will come out of this election,
Speaker 2: but it's going to be almost impossible to really pin
Speaker 2: down into people go into the voting box.
Speaker 1: I always like to end the show by asking my
Speaker 1: esteem to guess what they've learned, And I'm wondering, what
Speaker 1: have you learned since twenty twenty about the landscape that
Speaker 1: you observe.
Speaker 2: Well, it's so interesting, Tim because when I think about
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, we had all these grand plans going into now,
Speaker 2: which we're trying again at this time to really roll out,
Speaker 2: like I was saying to you, really getting reporters out
Speaker 2: into different states around the country. We're really focusing on
Speaker 2: the middle class and trying to talk to people in
Speaker 2: the middle class and gather data about them so that
Speaker 2: when we get to November twenty twenty four, we're really
Speaker 2: able to add value to the public by talking about
Speaker 2: issues and showing that we talk to people over time.
Speaker 2: But the grand plans that we had going into twenty
Speaker 2: twenty and how to cover that election were completely updended
Speaker 2: by the pandemic. So one of the things that it
Speaker 2: taught me as a journalist is to keep reminding yourself
Speaker 2: to expect the unexpected. That we really don't know what's
Speaker 2: going to happen between now and November twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: So many things will change, but one thing I'm almost
Speaker 2: certain of is things are going to happen that nobody expects,
Speaker 2: and so our job as journalists is just to keep
Speaker 2: doing the best that we can to tell people as
Speaker 2: many of the facts as we can get.
Speaker 1: I could talk to you for hours more. Will you
Speaker 1: promise to come back on again?
Speaker 2: I would love that.
Speaker 1: Peggy Collin is the Washington Bureau chief of Bloomberg News.
Speaker 1: You can find her on Twitter at mk m Collins.
Speaker 1: Here at crash Course, we believe that collisions can be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising,
Speaker 1: and always instructive. In today's Crash Course, I was reminded that,
Speaker 1: no matter how much we want to think that voters
Speaker 1: focus on issues and policy when they go to the polls,
Speaker 1: oftentimes they're driven by emotion as much as anything else.
Speaker 1: What did you learn? We'd love to hear from you.
Speaker 1: You can tweet at the Bloomberg Opinion handle at Opinion
Speaker 1: or me at Tim O'Brien using the hashtag Bloomberg Crash Course.
Speaker 1: You can also subscribe to our show wherever you're listening
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Speaker 1: the indispensable Ana ma asurakas Moses on Dom and Me.
Speaker 1: Special thanks this week to Michael Falero. Our supervising producer
Speaker 1: is Magnus Hendrickson, and we had editing help from Sagebauman,
Speaker 1: Katie Boyce, Jeff Grocott, Mike Neitze and Christine Vanden Bilard
Speaker 1: Blake Maples does our sound engineering and our original theme
Speaker 1: song was composed by Luis Garra. I'm Tim O'Brien. We'll
Speaker 1: be back next week with another crash Course