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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our week five Thursday NFL episode. This is the

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Speaker 1: episode where we get feedback from the wise guys who

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Speaker 1: listen to the show. We make our survivor pick and

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Speaker 1: build our money line Underdog Round, Robin Parlay, Big Big Week.

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Speaker 1: For that last week, we give out our Foxhole bet.

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Speaker 1: We give out our Big Balls bet of the week.

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Speaker 1: We narrow down our picks for the free to play

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Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them

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Speaker 1: contest because it is our old pal Colin Cowhard likes

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Speaker 1: to say there is a sea of money out there,

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Speaker 1: because there's a sea of money out there. If you

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Speaker 1: want to follow along with our official bets, you can

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Speaker 1: check them out on the contest website Favorites dot Actionnetwork

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Speaker 1: dot com when we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: If you prefer using the award winning Action Network app,

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Speaker 1: you can also track all the bets. Simon and I

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Speaker 1: lock in by following two accounts, The Fhaves five and

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Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast. Now, let's bring in my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my compatrick, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 1: He oh, so I'm in dude. Last week everything seems

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Speaker 1: so clear, we were locked in. This week a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a murky mass of short lines and conflicting

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Speaker 1: market moves.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and uh, we'll get into in the sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: A lot of split people this week, a lot of

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Speaker 2: guys going against each other, a lot of different opins

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Speaker 2: and you know that we're getting into no more. You

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Speaker 2: don't know what these teams are, who they really are yet.

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Speaker 2: You're kind of figuring out what teams really are and

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Speaker 2: who they are at this point, and that's going to

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Speaker 2: make for a lot of conflicts and a lot of

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Speaker 2: people think in their opinions rights for what you just said.

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Speaker 2: Last week fell pretty easy. This week, I'm having a

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Speaker 2: tough time getting to the five chat. I'm not gonna lie.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: and over or eighteen and over in Kentucky and present

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Speaker 1: gambling problem. Call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, or one eight hundred bets

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Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions and restrictions apply. Week

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Speaker 1: five is approaching opportunities we think are all over the board.

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Speaker 1: Let's not deal you, d Ally Simon. It's time for

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Speaker 1: sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range.

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Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe what you do man?

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Speaker 2: I'll start off by given given chat as flowers Chat

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Speaker 2: was all over this line. You saw it not? I

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Speaker 2: poo pooed him on it the Titans. I told him, yes,

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Speaker 2: we did a show, and I told him a really

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Speaker 2: smart group was coming in heavy on the Titans. I

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Speaker 2: don't know. I'm pretty stubborn. Chat. I've just been betting it.

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Speaker 2: I've taken the two and a half on the cold.

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Speaker 2: It's like, I'm not phased by this group, but I

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Speaker 2: should be because they're really good. But again, the game

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Speaker 2: we're going to dive into, I don't really get it.

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Speaker 2: The love of the Tennessee just feels like it's overboard

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Speaker 2: about what happened last week. Like I understand they looked

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Speaker 2: incredible against the Bengals. For the line to move now

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Speaker 2: what is it three and a half? Four points?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this one's moved to If you're seeing two and

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Speaker 1: a half, that is astonishing to me, dude. It was

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Speaker 1: at one and a half Indie minus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now Indy plus two and a half. Jesus Christ.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, money moves, bro. But at the same time, I

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Speaker 2: love it where it's like if I like aside and

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Speaker 2: the number moves against me. Obviously I respect these guys

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Speaker 2: and everything like that, but there's certain times where it's

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Speaker 2: like I got to put my foot down if I

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Speaker 2: believe in a team, and in this spot with this

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Speaker 2: Colts team, I just I think they're undevaluating how good

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Speaker 2: Anthony Richard is going to do against this Titans defense.

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Speaker 2: So that's the first one that jumped out, just because

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Speaker 2: I knew you're all over that one. I've been betting

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Speaker 2: the Colts. It went against me. Sucks, but that's gonna

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Speaker 2: happen one game you were on that I was just

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Speaker 2: unsure of. And it's probably gonna be in either a

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Speaker 2: big Balls or a Foxhole bet. It's that Pittsburgh number.

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Speaker 2: Talk to a lot of guys that love that number.

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Speaker 2: They're all over Pittsburgh in this spot. They're really though again,

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Speaker 2: everyone's different about how they go about it. I feel

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Speaker 2: like most of the people I'm talking to that love

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Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh spot or the old school trend guys, And

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Speaker 2: like I guess there's a bunch of trends that point

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Speaker 2: to this. I think I saw another trend of it

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Speaker 2: was something I had to do with them getting blown

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Speaker 2: up by twenty points like the last two years or

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Speaker 2: four and oh in these in these spots ats after

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Speaker 2: they lose a game by twenty points or more. So,

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Speaker 2: it kind of caters to what Chad said of Tomlin

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Speaker 2: usually gets his guys up after bad losses and they

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Speaker 2: bounce back in these games. You ain't new to us

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Speaker 2: no more, now you know what I mean. I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to get there with this one. It's just really hard

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Speaker 2: for me knowing it's Kenny Picketer, Mitch Trubisky that I'm backing.

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Speaker 2: I just don't have much faith in them. But it's

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Speaker 2: more of a faith faith bet in Tomlin in this defense.

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Speaker 2: So not shocked at that. I talked to a bunch

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Speaker 2: of guys and they love that number. Another game we

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Speaker 2: can't do for contest. The pros love They like the

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Speaker 2: Jaguars playing the Bills. They just like the whole scenario

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Speaker 2: of the Jaguars staying in London, the Bills traveling neutral site.

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Speaker 2: This Bills team is on fire. Everyone's gonna wake up

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Speaker 2: slam this number. Would not be shocked to see this

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Speaker 2: number go back up, but now I've seen it come down,

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Speaker 2: so I've seen it a couple of fives. Now it's

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Speaker 2: move from five and a half. So definitely a game

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Speaker 2: to keep your eye on. Again. The game will go

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Speaker 2: through quick so we can break it down ourselves Atlanta.

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Speaker 2: The Pros love that it feels the same suppli as

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Speaker 2: the Colts, where it's like we're buying low on a

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Speaker 2: team playing against a team that is getting all the

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Speaker 2: hype this whole week, and that's what this Houston team is. Like,

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Speaker 2: everyone's talking Houston this whole week. So the number has

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Speaker 2: not moved it like I think we gave it out

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Speaker 2: here at two and a half one and a half

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Speaker 2: and it's it's kind of stayed there. So definitely another

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Speaker 2: interesting one of there's pros on both sides. And the

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Speaker 2: final one again we talked about we missed the best

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Speaker 2: of the number, especially for contest. They love the Cardinals

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Speaker 2: this week against the Bengals. Chad, we've seen this number

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Speaker 2: now come down from when it opened at six five

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Speaker 2: and a half to five, to four and a half,

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Speaker 2: to three and a half to three. Now it's at

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Speaker 2: two and a half at a couple of books. So

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Speaker 2: I know we said we were like, yeah, we'll take

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Speaker 2: the Bengals, and I guess at two and a half,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if we can Chad like it, just

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Speaker 2: not even the fact that I know really smart guys

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Speaker 2: on the other side, it's like Selim's fishy here if

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Speaker 2: the books are begging now for your two and a

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Speaker 2: half money on the Spangles team. So yeah, definitely a

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Speaker 2: week where we're splitting a lot of ones and another

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Speaker 2: game we didn't even talk about Denver. I love that spot.

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Speaker 2: Another really smart group. I respect. They really like this

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Speaker 2: spot for Zach Wilson, and my argument against it is like,

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Speaker 2: this kid is inconsistent. This is such a letdown spot

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Speaker 2: for Zack Wilson after having the game of his life

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Speaker 2: against the Chiefs in primetime. Chad, I might let me

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Speaker 2: put this one in. Who knows, because we have a

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Speaker 2: bunch of games like this where it's like like a

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Speaker 2: Lake Minnesota, I like the forty nine ers, Like, we

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Speaker 2: have a lot of games we do like. But it

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Speaker 2: is interesting where we're getting Denver under a field goal

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Speaker 2: at home against Zach Wilson. It's like, how do we

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Speaker 2: not take this number here? So, uh, definitely a fun

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Speaker 2: week to dive into on all these games.

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Speaker 1: Let's just get into it because like every game you

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Speaker 1: talked about, I feel like it is split down the middle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just a lot of different different opinions and

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Speaker 2: different models and views on different teams and how there

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Speaker 2: are seasons will play out right now. So a lot

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Speaker 2: of head buttons this week.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of the

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Speaker 1: favorites live on YouTube. For those who are doing it

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Speaker 1: right now on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. So the other

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Speaker 1: day on Tuesday, when we were doing the podcast, you know,

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Speaker 1: Evan Abrams will give us these amazing stats, and I

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Speaker 1: chose one to make the theme of the week was

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Speaker 1: that for the past five years, when there were fifty

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Speaker 1: one percent or more of the bets, meaning the public

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Speaker 1: is on a side, that side would usually be the

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Speaker 1: losing side for the past five years in aggregate at

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Speaker 1: the end of the season. Right now through four weeks,

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Speaker 1: the public is winning more often than not against the spread.

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Speaker 1: So that was the theme for Tuesday, the theme for today,

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Speaker 1: and it's why it's relevant to what Simon was just

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Speaker 1: talking about with with the Colts and the Titans. Is

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Speaker 1: closing line valuable? Closing line value, Simon, We've talked about this,

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Speaker 1: like what is the value of getting closing the line?

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Speaker 1: So asked Evan to look it up the last five years,

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Speaker 1: how valuable was it to get the best of the number.

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Speaker 1: So for those who are listening for the first time,

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Speaker 1: Simon and I always talk about this, like getting the

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Speaker 1: best of the number, is an all betting axiom, and

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Speaker 1: what it means is you want to be when the

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Speaker 1: number is in the giving you the best advantage. So

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Speaker 1: with the Bengals and the Cardinals game that Simon just

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Speaker 1: mentioned on Sunday night, when Simon and I did the podcast,

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Speaker 1: that line was Bengals minus six on the road at Arizona.

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Speaker 1: While we were doing the podcast, it moved to five

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Speaker 1: and a half and then nine to five. Simon is saying,

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Speaker 1: it's now at two and a half. If you still

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Speaker 1: like the Cardinals, you're going to be at a disadvantage

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Speaker 1: if you bet the two and a half because it

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Speaker 1: opened at six. Following the line movement versus the opening line,

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Speaker 1: you win it a fifty eight percent clip, meaning if

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Speaker 1: you've gotten the best of the number, if you have

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Speaker 1: bet the six, you'd have a better chance of covering

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Speaker 1: against the spread over the past five years than if

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Speaker 1: you're betting the two and a half. So it's something

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Speaker 1: to think about.

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Speaker 2: You want me to push you back against it?

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Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, do it.

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Speaker 2: It was six'm Sunday night. That's where we're going off

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Speaker 2: of right here. For this example, there is like eight

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Speaker 2: dudes who got down one hundred bucks on that number. Like,

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Speaker 2: I'm with you, it's always great to get the best

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Speaker 2: of the number. You get no money down. I get

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Speaker 2: where people come from about that. I hate to throw

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Speaker 2: that I got the best number of people's face because

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Speaker 2: I got pennies down. Like books aren't taking big bets

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Speaker 2: at seven thirty on Sunday on week two. They're letting

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Speaker 2: the pros come in, take a little taste, and then

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Speaker 2: they move the number. So of course it should be

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Speaker 2: a really high percentage that the pros who get a

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Speaker 2: little bit down on the best number is always going

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Speaker 2: to be better than the guy running in at eleven

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Speaker 2: fifty or twelve fifty to get his bets sound right

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Speaker 2: before kickoff. A great example. We took that Saints plus

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Speaker 2: one and a half all week going against that Green

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Speaker 2: Bay team, and then two hours before kickoff it totally flipped.

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Speaker 2: That to me is even better example where it's like

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Speaker 2: that best of the number really didn't matter and you

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Speaker 2: would all week to get it. Me and chatter and

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Speaker 2: the risk, we don't mind buying out of positions if

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Speaker 2: guys get hurt or things come out. If you're a

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Speaker 2: small time guy with not that much money to put down,

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Speaker 2: be patient. Right, use your resources. You have these podcasts,

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Speaker 2: different things like that before you make all your bets

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Speaker 2: like we do early in the week because i love

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Speaker 2: closing line value, but I'm also like, I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to just stay away from a line because it's like, oh,

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Speaker 2: well the value is gone like that jets one. People

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Speaker 2: are like, are you still going to take it? It's

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Speaker 2: only seven and a half down. It's like, don't be

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Speaker 2: mad if you missed it in the lands on eight.

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Speaker 2: You are taking a risk there, but at the end

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Speaker 2: of the day, it usually doesn't matter like that seven

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Speaker 2: and a half. Me and Chad would have got burned

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Speaker 2: with our nine and a half. So my home scored

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Speaker 2: that touchdown even though we had a great number. So

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Speaker 2: at the end of the day the ten which me

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Speaker 2: and you got and popped up for maybe twelve hours,

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Speaker 2: we're not here to shove our number in your face

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Speaker 2: and we're like, oh, we got the best number. We

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Speaker 2: covered that anyway. It's like, don't kick yourself if you

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Speaker 2: miss the best number.

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Speaker 1: Although we're giving you a lot of tools to not

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Speaker 1: miss the best of the number. Because you can listen

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night, you can listen on Tuesday, you can

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Speaker 1: follow us in the Action Network gap. So if nothing else,

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Speaker 1: make your choice based on the inform that we're giving you,

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Speaker 1: basically in real time. We got them narrow down these games,

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Speaker 1: which is hard because we got a lot of games

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Speaker 1: that were on the fence about We were talking the

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Speaker 1: other day about the Jets the New York Giants in Miami,

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Speaker 1: both coming off of big losses, the Giants looking terrible,

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Speaker 1: Miami expecting to rebound. That game was at nine before

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Speaker 1: Monday out of football. Now it's at eleven. We were

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Speaker 1: wondering if we were going to talk ourselves into Miami

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Speaker 1: at minus eleven. I still don't have a read on this.

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Speaker 1: It feels like a big number to me. If you're

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Speaker 1: talking about trends. Evan has a great stat. Teams that

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Speaker 1: scored three points or less the previous week cover sixty

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Speaker 1: one percent of the time the last twenty years. The

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Speaker 1: following week, the Patriots, the Giants, and the Bengals are

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Speaker 1: in that That makes for this week when two teams

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Speaker 1: get blown out, the team that is ends up being

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Speaker 1: favored the next week if they're playing each other, actually

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Speaker 1: doesn't do very well against the spread the following week.

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Speaker 1: So I think I would lean Giants, but it's not

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Speaker 1: a game. I'm thinking I got to put in the contest,

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Speaker 1: so I don't if you don't feel strongly, we don't

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Speaker 1: need to spend a ton of time on it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like I told you, I hate this one because,

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Speaker 2: like you just said, everything everything about we do it

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Speaker 2: makes me want to take the Giants. They're getting no tickets,

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Speaker 2: no money. I talk to twenty five incredibly sharp groups

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Speaker 2: in the last two days. Not a single person brought

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Speaker 2: up the Giants or that they're taking the Giants, And

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Speaker 2: like I didn't bring them up either, but no one

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Speaker 2: else did. Which if there's usually eleven point dog and

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Speaker 2: no one's betting on, there's always gonna be one or

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Speaker 2: two guys. It's like, yeah, I'm gonna take that number.

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Speaker 2: So could be a huge trap for Miami betters, but

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be right there with them. I'm just I

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Speaker 2: don't see how the Giants keep up with Miami, and

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Speaker 2: I don't see defensively, like you just said, I think

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Speaker 2: they had the least amount of pressures right now in

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Speaker 2: football the Giants D line, So we know the only

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Speaker 2: way to stop Tua is to get it pressure on

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Speaker 2: him and make him uncomfortable like the Bills. That was

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Speaker 2: the perfect game plan they had of getting pressure on

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Speaker 2: him somehow, you know, get him off his spots, get

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Speaker 2: him out of rhythm. If the man has rhythm and timing,

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Speaker 2: you're dead. Me and I have seen this a thousand times,

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Speaker 2: and it's scary as hell, where it's like you're taking

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Speaker 2: a huge favorite on a team getting no money, no bets,

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Speaker 2: in a spot that I normally would love them. But

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Speaker 2: you know, my argument keeps being this Miami team is

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Speaker 2: just different than other teams where it's like their offense.

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Speaker 2: I still don't think the books have caught up to

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Speaker 2: these offenses. So the books don't care like they can have.

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Speaker 2: They're happy to lose this game. They'll get it back

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Speaker 2: another game. So it's the few times I'm good dride

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Speaker 2: with the public here and I'm still on this one.

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Speaker 2: Like I told you, I make this number thirteen. I

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Speaker 2: do whatever we do, like a little spreadsheet me Chris

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Speaker 2: Sean Stucky. We put in our numbers. I'm by far

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Speaker 2: the highest on Miami. I don't think any of those

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Speaker 2: guys are above ten. So clearly most people up there

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Speaker 2: aren't going to model this number so big. It's just

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to overreact to what happened in Buffalo, Like,

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Speaker 2: I still think this team is right up there as

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Speaker 2: one of the best teams in the AFC. But it

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Speaker 2: was interesting seeing those guys so much lower on this

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Speaker 2: number than I was.

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Speaker 1: He's referring, of course, to Stucky and Chris Raybond, who

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Speaker 1: co host the Action Network Thursday podcast, and Sean Kroner,

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Speaker 1: who is our predictive analysts and one of the creators

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Speaker 1: of the Luck Rankings, three guys we mentioned on the

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Speaker 1: show all the time. You must check out the Luck Rankings.

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Speaker 1: You must listen to the Thursday podcast for the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to bring it up a couple times because

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Speaker 1: games we're on Chris and Stucky are against. Also, I

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Speaker 1: feel like you just said one of the smartest things

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Speaker 1: you've ever said. If the man has rhythm and timing,

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Speaker 1: you're dead. That goes for football, that goes for basketball,

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Speaker 1: that goes for a shootout at the OK Corral. If

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Speaker 1: you are against someone with rhythm and timing, you're fucked

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Speaker 1: New Orleans at New England. Look, this is a game

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Speaker 1: I just mentioned Stucky and Raybon Stucky like the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: This was my exact decision. I don't care, like I

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Speaker 1: think this is the right move here. The Patriots are

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Speaker 1: in trouble. I think Mac Jones is just terrible. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that is something you can make up for

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Speaker 1: with scheme. I think Matthew Judahn and Christian Gonzalez being

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Speaker 1: out is a hard thing to overcome. I don't think

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Speaker 1: you can make it up with scheme and better coaching

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Speaker 1: from Bill Balichick over Dennis Allen. Are we still together

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Speaker 1: on this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we exactly what we said. It was like,

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Speaker 2: we wanted to be on the Patriots right if their

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Speaker 2: defense with healthy, this would have been a great spot

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Speaker 2: for them against Derek Carr going outside and struggling offense.

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Speaker 2: Their studs are gone, Like I know they made it

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Speaker 2: a trade for Jackson from the Chargers. That guy ain't

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Speaker 2: coming there to fix what's happening there. This week we

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Speaker 2: kind of talked out. We thought the number would eventually move.

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Speaker 2: Some books are making the Saints favorites now minus one.

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Speaker 2: It's just gonna be back and forth. Yeah, yeah, Chad,

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Speaker 2: Like I'm still right there with you. This is just

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Speaker 2: a week of like a lot of these numbers have

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Speaker 2: just calm down to a pick where the book even

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Speaker 2: themselves are like, we don't really know what to do

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Speaker 2: any of these teams. And that's how it feels with

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Speaker 2: this one, where the Saints have a ton of potential,

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Speaker 2: but we don't know how badly Derek Carr is hurt,

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Speaker 2: and we don't know how bad this Patriots defense is

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Speaker 2: going to be without arguably their two best defenders. So

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Speaker 2: I'm still confident our position just because I think the

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Speaker 2: Saints defense is really good and they're healthy. Don't we

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Speaker 2: wish it was still one and a half plus two maybe,

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Speaker 2: like we'd feel a lot better about the Saints. The

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Speaker 2: fact that now you have to get minus one it's

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Speaker 2: making the value leave a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And also it's always very tricky. Evan will tell

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Speaker 1: you that the trends don't favor teams that go from

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Speaker 1: short dogs to short favorites. For the record, speaking of

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Speaker 1: closing line value against the opening line, I bet the

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Speaker 1: Saints at plus one and a half. I put it

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Speaker 1: in the app. If you follow me in the app,

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Speaker 1: you would have seen that. We talked about it on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Just something to keep in mind, all right, Baltimore at Pittsburgh. Look,

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Speaker 1: we talked about this on Tuesday also, and we've said

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Speaker 1: the wise guys are coming in on this during sharp calls.

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Speaker 1: This one does scare me a little bit, like I

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Speaker 1: think we have three games that we're debating between Big

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Speaker 1: Balls and Foxhole, and this is one of them. Because

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Speaker 1: Evan gave us all those stats the other day about

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Speaker 1: this series right over the last twenty years, which is

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Speaker 1: basically covering Tomlin and Harbaugh's entire careers. Underdog in this

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Speaker 1: series twenty eight, twelve and three when the line is

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Speaker 1: three or more since two thousand and five twenty one,

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Speaker 1: three and three, underdog has covered eleven straight in this rivalry,

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Speaker 1: fifteen one and one against the spread, and when when

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Speaker 1: Harbaugh and Tomlin face each other twenty two to five

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Speaker 1: and three to the underdog.

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Speaker 2: I just want to see your face. We win the

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Speaker 2: damn game we are living.

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Speaker 1: And we've got Lamar Jackson, who has been terrible as

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Speaker 1: a favorite.

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Speaker 2: When you're trying to be great, it's going to be negativity.

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Speaker 2: But you know, they hated Jesus and I'm not Jesus,

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Speaker 2: so I'll want me to worry about it.

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Speaker 1: And we've got the Steelers, who always overperformed as an

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Speaker 1: underdog at home over a field goal. I betted it four,

401
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Speaker 1: but it makes me nervous because I don't think this

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Speaker 1: is the same kind of Steelers team as years past.

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Speaker 1: This defense isn't nearly as good.

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Speaker 2: That's why we got to make our big balls better

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Speaker 2: the week shed.

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Speaker 1: Big balls better the week Pittsburgh Steelers plus four at

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Speaker 1: home against the Baltimore Ravens. I wonder what Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 1: is going to say about that.

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Speaker 2: You know, he didn't urinate down his leg. Man, that's

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Speaker 2: a great place to begin. This takes some skajones to

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Speaker 2: make this bet here. It's like you're betting a team

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Speaker 2: that you're right they don't have. It feels like the

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Speaker 2: same type of dogs on defense that we're used to.

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Speaker 2: Normally I would be like, you know what, let's just

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Speaker 2: wait and see. But you were spot on giving out

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Speaker 2: all these stats, and these are the reasons. You just

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Speaker 2: don't miss on these numbers where we're just playing the

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Speaker 2: long term game with a lot of these bets were making.

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Speaker 2: Never in my life if I probably rememss this miss

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Speaker 2: this opportunity to take a Tomlin team at home in

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Speaker 2: a divisional game after they lost by more than twenty points.

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Speaker 2: It's too good of a number to pass on. Man

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Speaker 2: an opportunity to get a quality dude at a discount

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Speaker 2: like what we're talking about. No doubt, having the four

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Speaker 2: feels a lot better like grabbing the four now, that's

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Speaker 2: that's such a key number. So if you can get

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Speaker 2: the four to four and a half, obviously we want

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Speaker 2: you to grab it now. But I could I could

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Speaker 2: see this being three and a half by kickoff. It's

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Speaker 2: just the Joe's versus pros. It's going to be the public.

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Speaker 2: I mean we can look in the app. I'm assuming

432
00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 2: the tickets and everything like that will be on at

433
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 2: raven and all the cash is on Pittsburgh.

434
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 1: This is a very public dog. Sixty six percent of

435
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,439
Speaker 1: the tickets on Pittsburgh, eighty two percent of the money

436
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,440
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh, and the wise guy money is coming in

437
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh a because of the number of what we've

438
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,199
Speaker 1: seen with this rivalry for the years. But there are

439
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 1: significant injuries for the Ravens. I mean, they're just banging.

440
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 2: And Pittsburgh has injuries too, but not as bad as

441
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 2: the Ravens.

442
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 1: Not as bad as the Ravens, and also not as impactful,

443
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 1: right like the Ravens secondary is in big trouble the Steelers.

444
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,120
Speaker 1: Like you play Mitch Trubisky, you play Kenny Pickett. I'm

445
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:33,199
Speaker 1: not sure it fucking matters.

446
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:35,479
Speaker 2: We're just gonna trust the number here and take it.

447
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 2: I'm happy these our big balls better the week because

448
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 2: of all our bets are making. This one feels like

449
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 2: the Jets last week, where it's like I know it's

450
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 2: the right number, it's the right's about to take it.

451
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 2: It's it's really taken a lot for me to put

452
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 2: them money down on it. It's just this. This Pittsburgh

453
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 2: team is bad.

454
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 1: That's what makes it so fun. They're at Detroit. Listen,

455
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: we said on Tuesday we wanted to wait until this

456
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: number got to ten to make a call. It's really

457
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 1: hard to pull the trigger on this Carelina team. And

458
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,360
Speaker 1: this Detroit team has been so dominant. You said it's

459
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 1: climbing up in your power ratings. Me, Dallas, I got

460
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 1: a couple of things here. Jared goff rewinder most profitable

461
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 1: against spread QB the past five years and by the way,

462
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 1: much much better in the dome. Not surprising, so, you know,

463
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 1: for uh, for the film room stuff and for other

464
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,159
Speaker 1: stuff that we do. I was doing a little research

465
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 1: on on Aiden Hutchinson, and he is grading out as

466
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 1: one of the top pass rushers according to Pro Football Focus,

467
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 1: not that far behind Miles Garrett and Micah Parsons three

468
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 1: and a half sacks the past two games. The Panthers

469
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 1: O line has no one grading out at a top

470
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 1: thirty pass blocker. Nobody so and we got Bryce Young.

471
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 1: So it's a hard one to put. We know the

472
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 1: right side is Carolina, and I fucking hate it.

473
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I took I'm taking the ten, but I'm right

474
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 2: there with you, like I just I wish I had

475
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 2: the juice and the hope and the push you to

476
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: take the ten here. But man, it's really hard to

477
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 2: convince you. And Evan just point in our chat that

478
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 2: eighty five percent of the tickets right now in Detroit,

479
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 2: they would have more than eighty percent twenty twelve. It's

480
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 2: only happened only times in the last twenty years. They've

481
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 2: had this make tickets since twenty twelve, So, oh god, yeah,

482
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 2: that's that's terrifying. If you're a Detroit fan, it's terrible. Yeah, no,

483
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 2: we got I know. If you're gonna be like, why

484
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 2: don't you take the Giants it's kind of the same thing,

485
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 2: but it's it isn't it isn't it's it's tough. But

486
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,880
Speaker 2: I told Chad I would take this at ten I have.

487
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 2: I've thrown a little on it. I just don't know

488
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:50,679
Speaker 2: if I'll make it. What of our contests play with

489
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 2: it where it probably should be. I can't stomach it

490
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: right now, Like I every what all the film I

491
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: watch on Bryce Young, he is bad.

492
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 1: Terrible, remarkable difference between Anthony Richardson, CJ. Stroud and Bryce Young.

493
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: And look, we talked about this non stop heading into

494
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 1: the draft. It's not pee wee football. Why has everybody

495
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: focused on a guy who's my size and my weight?

496
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 2: Right?

497
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it just made no sense. So I'm gonna

498
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: put Carolina plus ten on ourary final list, not our

499
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 1: final final list. Like right now, we've got New Orleans

500
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,959
Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh on there, depending on the number for New Orleans.

501
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 1: But it's possible that when we decide, this might be

502
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 1: one of the best numbers available.

503
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: A lesson if you're new to listen to the show.

504
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 2: I shout on Bryce Young for six months saying I

505
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 2: had him a second round grade and I had to

506
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 2: get a lot of like, what the fuck do you know?

507
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: You're an idiot? What did I tell you? I said,

508
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 2: I didn't think the kid had the body for the league.

509
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 2: I don't think he would hold up. I think he

510
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 2: already missed a game this season from taking a hit.

511
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 2: So I'm not a hater guys like this is literally

512
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 2: my job is to evaluate talent and give an opinion

513
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 2: on that said down, so do I won't bryce Shung's

514
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: creator look like shit.

515
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 3: No.

516
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 2: I want the kid to have a great life, to

517
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,439
Speaker 2: succeed in life. But my job is to shit on

518
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 2: people like That's what this job is. And yeah, me

519
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 2: and Shaw are joking. I had a fan reach out

520
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 2: send me some clips from our draft show, and I

521
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 2: went back and listened to a couple of Then, yeah,

522
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: we all have a couple of misses. But Dan when

523
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: we dead on about CJ being much better than Bright

524
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 2: Young So it sucked that I lost a lot of money,

525
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 2: but it just shows how he nept this Carolina front offices.

526
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: And I love that I saw that they're looking for

527
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 2: a number one receiver. Now it's just hilarious. If the

528
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 2: Bears just send DJ back and get another first round

529
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 2: pick from him, that would be hilarious if they just yeah,

530
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 2: get they're not next year. The year after, it's like, yeah,

531
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 2: we'll send you guys a receiver. So Carolina fans, I

532
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 2: feel bad for you guys. It just looks like in

533
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 2: a draft that two really really great prospects through the

534
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: first couple of weeks in CJ and Richardson. It sucks

535
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 2: you don't have one, Cuz, I mean, look at the

536
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: Colts and Houston fan bases right now. They are truly

537
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 2: living the dream.

538
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: We got to pick up the piss pretty soon. Matt

539
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 1: Mitchell's going to send. It's a nasty message, Houston, Atlanta. Listen,

540
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 1: everyone's got to check out the Favorites Film Room. It's

541
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: the YouTube exclusive Simon and I do in which we

542
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: break down key plays. We use the NFL All twenty

543
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,919
Speaker 1: two and we think about how these players will impact

544
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: our bets this weekend. I did the Falcons run game

545
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: this week. You and I like the Falcons at minus

546
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 1: two against Houston on Sunday night. It was at three

547
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: and a half. We said we're waiting to get them

548
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 1: to three. It got down to one. It's now backup. Wise,

549
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: guys have come in on Atlanta. This is a dominant

550
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: run game for the Falcons. Dominant as long as it

551
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 1: goes right. And this is what we talked about in

552
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 1: the film room. Fourth highest success rate in the NFL

553
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: running right, No surprise. Center Drew Dollmon, fourth best overall

554
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: graded by PFF. Number one rated run blocking center. Chris Linstrom.

555
00:25:55,960 --> 00:26:00,719
Speaker 1: Chris Linstrom right guard, third best overall guard acording to PFF.

556
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 1: Caleb McGarry right tackle, six best run blocking tackle. So

557
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: you get this team running right, whether it's inside Tyler Algier,

558
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 1: outside Bijon, they have an advantage. I think they have

559
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: an advantage at home. We still like it the minus two.

560
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,679
Speaker 2: Yeah. And it's also people are gonna start picking up

561
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 2: themes here where it's like we like riding the hot

562
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 2: teams and then we try to jump off. We try

563
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 2: to sell high. It's like stock. So we were all

564
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 2: over Houston last week. Now we're fading them all over

565
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 2: the Bills last week. A lot of pros now are

566
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 2: going on the Jaguars up for the following week. It's

567
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 2: like you're trying to not just time the market, you're

568
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 2: trying to sell low on these teams. And if you're

569
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 2: on Houston and you didn't get the three and a half.

570
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 2: Chat's talking about closing numbers. You're buying high in a

571
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 2: team at a bad number now. And my hope was

572
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 2: that this was gonna be like the Colts game, where

573
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: this was gonna flip and Lanto would be a home dog.

574
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 2: That would have been amazing. Sadly, the Pros couldn't chill

575
00:26:58,160 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 2: and they had to come in and buy the number

576
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: one and a half and one and now, like Chad said,

577
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 2: it's up to two and one and a half still,

578
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 2: So nothing's changed for me here, Like CJ hasn't been incredible.

579
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 2: He's gonna get he's gonna get caught, He's gonna hit

580
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: a wall. Eventually the book will be out on them.

581
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 2: That's just how it is. Teams are gonna find your

582
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,479
Speaker 2: weaknesses and they attack it. They build game plans around it.

583
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 2: Me and Chad at talk all the time. There's a

584
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 2: reason these rookies fall off. As the season goes along.

585
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 2: It's a very long season. They're getting more and more

586
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 2: tape on you. So whatever he likes to do, the

587
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 2: defense is gonna start counteracting that. And Atlanta, it's not

588
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 2: so much that me and Chad are just betting them

589
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 2: because of their running style on offense, it's more about

590
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 2: Houston doesn't have any of the guys to stop it.

591
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 2: Like you go through their defense, they are thin, especially

592
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 2: against the run and run stop or so that's why,

593
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 2: like Chad was right on the same page with me

594
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 2: where he broke down those two guys, and it's like,

595
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 2: that's why I like a land here. It's not that

596
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: I have zero faith in the ridder. He can still

597
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 2: make some of the throws. But if we're ever gonna

598
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 2: mean a game where I know it's gonna be like

599
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 2: a shootout, like say this game was in Houston, probably

600
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 2: would be on Houston, right, that's you're going a good

601
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: number for them. The fact that it CJ on the

602
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 2: road in this kind of environment after you know, they

603
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 2: had this big win in Jacksonville. He made some throws,

604
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 2: but that wasn't all him that Pittsburgh game. That was

605
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 2: really a great game by him. So that's why it's

606
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: like the public everyone now seeing that they're all over

607
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,360
Speaker 2: this with CJ. Where pros like us are like, yes,

608
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 2: this gets talented, but this number should be three, Like

609
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 2: this should be three or above the fact we're getting

610
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 2: under a field goal here with this Atlanta team. It's

611
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 2: another game where it just feels like we have to

612
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:25,640
Speaker 2: have it in the contest.

613
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: All right, Look, same scenario, Tennessee at Indy. The only

614
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: difference is that the Tennessee number did move the way

615
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: we thought Atlanta might move. They opened it at about

616
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: one and a half or two. We betted at one

617
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: and a half. Indy now a two point underdog. Your

618
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 1: film breakdown on the Faves Film Room of Anthony Richardson

619
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 1: was awesome. This is our foxhil Why is guys, Titans?

620
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: This has to be our Foxhall. Let's clide down into

621
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: the foxhole.

622
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 2: I'm in. Yeah, and it feels like a fox old

623
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 2: Chad that we are alone on this one. My friend, Yes,

624
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 2: that's what I was gonna say, if it feels like

625
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 2: we're pretty alone, because I know plenty of guys are

626
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: just gonna stay away from this now. Can't help it.

627
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 2: Like we're getting such a good number here against a

628
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 2: Tennessee team that is crazy over valued right now. Their

629
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 2: defense is suspect. They do have some dogs up front,

630
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 2: but the rest of the defense has a ton of

631
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 2: holes in it. And obviously, if Jonathan Taylor came back

632
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: that I'd be amazing. It's not that big of a

633
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: deal to me. Me and Chad broke down the film room,

634
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: like this kid Richardson is making great reads and great throws.

635
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 2: You're always gonna catch a stinker bet in these rookies.

636
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 2: Like if if you bet Houston this week and CJ

637
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 2: just completely lays a stinker, you shouldn't be shocked. It's

638
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 2: a rookie. If Anthony Richson comes out and it just

639
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 2: plays like he did in that first half against the Rams,

640
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 2: it would suck for me and Chad. But the reason

641
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 2: I'm okay with back in Richson is he has the legs,

642
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 2: and like, that's such the cheet code to what he is,

643
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 2: where it's like if the arm isn't working, he can

644
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 2: always go back to his legs. And that's what I

645
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 2: loved when we broke down that film room. He was

646
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: not relying on his legs the second half. He was

647
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 2: trusting his arm talent and taking the windows he had

648
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 2: and then throwing guys into windows, which was the craziest

649
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: part of that breakdown where it's like, you know, if

650
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: guys weren't open, he would do a fake scramble, so

651
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 2: he'd run up to the line like he's gonna run.

652
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 2: The linebackers would step up, and then he would do

653
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 2: a little dump off to the guys like his tight

654
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 2: end or his running back. That's a veteran play by

655
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,719
Speaker 2: a guy who is in his first year. So we

656
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 2: might get caught here. I'm happy to pay for that price,

657
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 2: especially if we get two and a half in the contest. Like,

658
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 2: no brainer, I'll be on this Colts one. Evan gave

659
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 2: us a static. We talked about guys that go from

660
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,719
Speaker 2: dogs to favorites. Which Tennessee did. They were an underdog,

661
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: now they were a favorite. It's what, Chad, They hit

662
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 2: it at less than fifty eight percent, I believe. Yeah, yeah,

663
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 2: So you know, that's a nice, nice trend for us

664
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: to back. But not only that, I think we're getting

665
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 2: a great number of this Colts team. So definitely a

666
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 2: battle for a division game here, but another division dog

667
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 2: just like Pittsburgh. We're gonna take the points.

668
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: Here's a good stat that Evn't just gave us. When

669
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: teams won by twenty or more the previous week the

670
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: past twenty years, the next week, there are forty two

671
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. That's the Titans, also the Texans.

672
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, true.

673
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:18,959
Speaker 1: So I like I was on Sunday night, I was

674
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: leaning Titans. You were prickly with me about it, and

675
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: then I had come around to your side.

676
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 2: And that was a good read. Again though, That's why

677
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: I gave you your flowers. That was a good read, Balue,

678
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 2: because you're getting the best of the number for the Titans.

679
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: But it turns out I think I'm on your side now,

680
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: and so we're in this together. Brother. There we go

681
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: a fox hole in it. We're in the foxhole Cinci

682
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: at Arizona. So Arizona was a three point favorite at

683
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,719
Speaker 1: that three, six, five, two and a half other places. Basically,

684
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: books are begging for sincim money at this point, like

685
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 1: we said at the beginning, opened at six. The biggest challenge.

686
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 2: I thought.

687
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: Raybund did an incredible job of breaking this game down

688
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast and also got this Sunday

689
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: six pack on YouTube where him and Stuck you go

690
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: through their six best games. This is one of his

691
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 1: Arizona and Arizona's better than we think, and we have

692
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: enough of a sample size now where this is what

693
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is this season. He's not Joe Burrow of

694
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: years past. What he is is what we're going to get,

695
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 1: and that's not something you want to bet on. So

696
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 1: I understand why people are betting on Arizona for me

697
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 1: for a contest play like I'm passing on this. Yeah,

698
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: I don't have any interest. I don't know about you.

699
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 2: If you don't, I'm stand away, stand away because I

700
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 2: want I want to take them. Now that's down to

701
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 2: this point out at two and a half like I

702
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 2: thought we would. But you know, guys like Chris who

703
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 2: I respect, and there's other pro groups I really respect.

704
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 2: They're coming in on the three threes and a half

705
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 2: the reason the number is being bet down, so it's

706
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 2: like I respect them. I'm like Chad, like we got

707
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 2: whatever it was four or four and a half. I

708
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 2: got that Sunday Monday. I'll just smile and hold that

709
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 2: tick and be like, I don't have no read on

710
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 2: this game because to me, it's another reaction. I think

711
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 2: this line's moved too much in the values on the Bengals.

712
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 2: But Chad just said it like it's hard to have

713
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: any type of faith in Joe Burrow. You can't complete

714
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 2: the ball twenty yards downfield. Joe Burrow like the guy

715
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 2: who can miss downfield, can't complete passes. Now, he's losing

716
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 2: T Higgins. It's just oh man, it's just a nightmare

717
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 2: scenario right now for them. And again, the Cardinals team

718
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: can run the ball. So it's like, yeah, everything, everything

719
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 2: I want to do is on the Cardinals. But it's

720
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 2: a shit number now. So we talked about the time

721
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 2: close line value. I feel like I'm getting the real

722
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 2: closeline value here technically is on the Bengals, but it

723
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 2: doesn't feel like value, right Chad. It feels like a

724
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 2: little stinky, stinky line at.

725
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: This point, Philadelphia at the Rams, Rams are four and

726
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 1: a half, undefeated team versus undefeated team against the spread

727
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: line line has moved in the Rams direction, kind of

728
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: settled at four and a half. Yeah, Cooper punk maybe

729
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 1: back Stafford is slinging it. The Eagles have incredible have

730
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries in the defensive backfield. Here's my

731
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: take though, And I've been hesitant to bet this game

732
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 1: even though it's not the Eagles at four and a half,

733
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: and it's I like the number for the Eagles. They

734
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: because they've got a Pats mid two thousand vibe to

735
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: me like their coaching is great. They've got great players

736
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 1: who don't make stupid mistakes. They have confidence, but not

737
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: like over confidence. These are the kind of games the

738
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 1: Eagles win even when they're ugly, and they win them

739
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 1: by a touchdown.

740
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's hard where it's I think everything you

741
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:30,359
Speaker 2: just said is so true. It's like the matchup's good

742
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 2: for this offensive Stafford, Like Sam Howe just had his

743
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 2: way with his secondary. Now you're getting Stafford with maybe

744
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 2: a healthy Cooper Cup added to the mix. I'm right

745
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,760
Speaker 2: there with you, Chad. So it's one of those games.

746
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 2: I'll bet the four and a half and I'll be

747
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 2: all over it. I don't I just don't know. Who knows.

748
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 2: Maybe someday will wake up and feel different, but right now,

749
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 2: I just don't have it in our contest with us.

750
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,479
Speaker 2: But I do like the number. But everything Chad said

751
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 2: so true where it's like sometimes these numbers I look

752
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 2: really good, they're they're kind of fake and they sucky

753
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 2: in with it where it's like why isn't this down

754
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 2: to three and a half. I don't get why it's

755
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 2: still four and a half. That's like my biggest issue

756
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 2: with it. Where it's like, who doesn't think they're getting

757
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 2: great value? Here. Maybe general public doesn't. Maybe they're thinking

758
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 2: they're getting great value in the Eagles, but I don't know.

759
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 2: I just feel like the Rams have played so well

760
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 2: and people have seen them playing well, and it's just

761
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,720
Speaker 2: I'm shocked that they've that many doubters. But yeah, Eagles

762
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,959
Speaker 2: talent wise, they are light years ahead of this Rams team.

763
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 2: Like they haven't been punting first round picks the last

764
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 2: ten years. They've been taking studs from Georgia. So it's

765
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 2: literally two totally different teams how they're built out. And

766
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 2: you know, a game that again, if it's Sunday and

767
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 2: we can't get a fifth game, me and Chad might

768
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: them having this one in there just as we sit

769
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: here right now. It's hard to get there.

770
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: When you say you bet the four and a half,

771
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:56,280
Speaker 1: you didn't say if you bet the Rams or the Eagles.

772
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 2: I'm still gonna keep doing that. Eagles first half. I

773
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 2: know we got slaughtered last week last week. Yeah, I'm

774
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 2: gonna keep taking it. Even last week they just they

775
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 2: just played sloppy, where Eagles tend to bounce back the

776
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 2: following weeks after complaining like that. So that's another reason.

777
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 2: It's just making me scary to take the four and

778
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 2: a half. It's like, this number is so big, why

779
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 2: isn't this lower?

780
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 1: We don't have to spend too much time on this one.

781
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: Kansas City and Minnesota. I liked it Sunday night it

782
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 1: was about five and a half. The number of the

783
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 1: wise guys came in on Minnesota. I think I still

784
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: like Minnesota, but I don't like four. So for me

785
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: as a contest play, it's a pass. As a bet,

786
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 1: it's on Minnesota. You you disagree, Yeah, I might be

787
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: able to get there with you.

788
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 2: On the Vikings at four and a half, I mean,

789
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 2: really smart money's coming out on them, and I think

790
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:49,799
Speaker 2: everyone's kind of on board what I've been saying with

791
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, where it's like they are great. We have

792
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 2: no doubt about this Chief's team. They're just something's different

793
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 2: since Eric left and went to Washington offensive coordinator. The

794
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 2: offense just different. And I don't think Mahomes is totally

795
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:07,319
Speaker 2: comfortable in this new offensive scheme. So a game that

796
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 2: sucks because we're betting a horrible Vikings team that have

797
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: a horrible defense, but we're taking Kirk at home in

798
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 2: a game we think he should be attract meet. So

799
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 2: Kirk tends to burn us in these spots, but on

800
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: the flip side, Mahomes it's over four four and a half. Chat.

801
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 2: This is usually when we fade them. So it's just

802
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:27,839
Speaker 2: like the Rams where it's like we're getting a good

803
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 2: home dog against the team that people are kind of

804
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 2: betting on what they were last year, not so much

805
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 2: what they were did this year, and it feels like

806
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 2: another inflated number. So it's like, I like this number,

807
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,399
Speaker 2: me and Chat won't be shocked at all when Kirk

808
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 2: Cousins throws his third pick six and we're down twenty

809
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 2: one in the fourth quarter. But that's how you have

810
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 2: to bet it. You have to bet these dogs and

811
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 2: these kind of spots and these numbers against public received

812
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 2: teams from the previous year that you know, whatever it was,

813
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 2: I think it was six, you're right, Chad, And then

814
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 2: all this money came in on Minnesota. Now it's all

815
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 2: the way down to four and a half. I'm hoping

816
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 2: by Sunday more money just comes back into the Chiefs

817
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 2: because everyone's gonna put them in teasers of their money

818
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 2: line Parlais and we get back to that five and

819
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 2: a half six maybe, So I've been betting the four

820
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 2: and a half. But I'm with Chad, don't don't. Don't

821
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 2: grab the four unless you're really half to, unless you're

822
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 2: really worried, or maybe you're busy this weekend. You know

823
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,919
Speaker 2: when you'll be betting again. Okay, grab the four. Try

824
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 2: to wait, try to see if it goes back up

825
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 2: a lot of books, because I do think four and

826
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 2: a half is such a key number. It's it's better

827
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 2: to get that than just grab the four.

828
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 1: New York Jets at Denver. We talked about this in

829
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: the beginning. We said, we like Denver public is back

830
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:38,320
Speaker 1: in the Jets. You got some intel that the wise

831
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,439
Speaker 1: guys like the Jets. Since we've been talking at two

832
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,359
Speaker 1: and a half. Since we've been talking, this line has

833
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:45,919
Speaker 1: moved from one and a half to two and a half.

834
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 2: It's back up.

835
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:49,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, Denver's now two and a half.

836
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 2: So I'm a bitch. So yeah, that was like a game.

837
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 2: Like I loved it. We were getting, we were getting.

838
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 2: We're still under a field goal, so I still like it.

839
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 2: But we joke all the time. Two and a half

840
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 2: now is like an important number. It's not what he

841
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 2: used to be like the way it is now two

842
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 2: and a half does matter. So so I'm a bitch.

843
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 2: That was one of those where it's like, bitch, keep

844
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 2: coming bet in the Jets, like give me, give me

845
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: a pick on Denver here. Like I said, Russell is

846
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,839
Speaker 2: not the problem for Denver, it's their defense. You won't

847
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 2: get a better game to get right than Zach Wilson

848
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 2: after he had the game of his life, and hey,

849
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,839
Speaker 2: maybe you figure something out. Maybe all these Jets fans

850
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 2: are right where this guy's found it now, like he's

851
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 2: he's finally taking with Rogers teaching, he's putting on the field.

852
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 2: I'm more than happy to pay and be wrong then

853
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 2: bet on Zach Wilson, like to actually be that. So

854
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 2: Denver's defense, mean, Chad broke them down on film. They

855
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 2: are horrible in every way. They kind of found something

856
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:51,720
Speaker 2: in that second half against the Bears. Like their defense

857
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 2: in the first half couldn't do anything. The second half

858
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 2: they were flying around. I couldn't believe how it was

859
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 2: night and day. Where Like their pass rush had zero

860
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 2: pressure in the first half. Second half they're all overfield.

861
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 2: So this is a team that you know, I don't

862
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 2: even know. I'd have to check my ratings, but they

863
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 2: might be my thirtieth ranked defense, like they are truly

864
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: horrible right now, Denver. I don't think they're actually that bad.

865
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 2: Like last year they were fourteenth graded out DBOA defense

866
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 2: in the entire season. They're not the fourteenth best defense

867
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 2: in football, but I don't think they're the thirtieth. I

868
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 2: think like they'll they'll slowly start creeping up to the

869
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 2: mid twenties. And this is kind of the game where

870
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,919
Speaker 2: they should get right at home against a Jets team

871
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 2: that they gave it all against that Chiefs team that

872
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,359
Speaker 2: fell short. I don't see them rebounding from that. Where

873
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 2: on the flip side, Denver is coming off such a

874
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 2: big win that kind of you kind of think, okay,

875
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 2: they'll push them forward the rest of the year. We

876
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 2: could be wrong, but again I'm happy to fade Zach

877
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 2: Wilson under a field goal with a home team. We

878
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 2: did it already. We won a game somehow with Mac

879
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 2: Jones against Zach Wilson as under a field goal. I

880
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 2: gotta do it again. So I'm gonna not let what

881
00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 2: happened with that Chiefs game scare me off of it.

882
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep fadan Zach Wilson under a field goal.

883
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: Dallas at San Francisco, biggest bet of the week, biggest

884
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 1: game of the week. Very chucked San Francisco with this

885
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: number stucky is against us.

886
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, what was his reasoning though?

887
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 1: Uh, I didn't love the reasoning, to be honest.

888
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 2: I was gonna say what possible reason it could there be?

889
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 1: I think he was discounting the Cardinals game and felt

890
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: like the uh, the reaction to the Cardinals loss was

891
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 1: too big, and felt like San Francisco had won big

892
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 1: games and looked impressive against some not great competition.

893
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 2: The not great competition that just smoked the Cowboys. So yeah,

894
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:48,720
Speaker 2: like anyone that's trying to get men argument the Cowboys,

895
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 2: because I did have a couple of guys bring it

896
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 2: up there, like what are you doing with this one?

897
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 2: And I mean you already kind of talked about it. It's

898
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 2: like we're taking the better team at home. I mean,

899
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 2: Evan probably knows is I think it's what Chant hands

900
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 2: up to eleven straight call as a home as a

901
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 2: home favorite. He's been on a role as.

902
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:08,280
Speaker 1: Nine consecutive home games, nine consecutive home games they've covered.

903
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 2: So I mean, if it ain't broke, don't fix it,

904
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 2: like I love to be the guy. It's like, well

905
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 2: they're due, then Dallas is due. It's just there's no

906
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:19,919
Speaker 2: reason for me to get on Dallas. I can't find

907
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 2: any reason. Uh yes, is Dak more experienced and probably

908
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: a better quarterback than Perty, Sure, but in there's each

909
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 2: of their own systems. Who's playing better. Right now, Party's

910
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 2: been mistake free. I mean, if you grate him out,

911
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 2: he's been pretty incredible on the throws he is making.

912
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 2: Where I told you a little things I didn't like

913
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 2: from him was I think I still don't trust him

914
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 2: making checks and calls of the line, Like those are

915
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 2: little things I look for that doesn't really matter. Guys

916
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 2: in his second year, Kyle's kind of giving him more

917
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 2: freedom now, which he should like. He should be letting

918
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 2: him make calls of the line. Purdy almost always checks

919
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: and they're just running the ball, which not a bad

920
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 2: thing you have McCaffrey, but there's many times where he

921
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 2: needs to make the throws. Hopefully that changes the season

922
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,919
Speaker 2: goes along. But again, there's nothing for me to see

923
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 2: in the forty nine ers that can just get me

924
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 2: on Dallas. If this was four and a half, I

925
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 2: honestly would start thinking Dallas there because I we talked

926
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,919
Speaker 2: about like this number at four kind of made sense,

927
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 2: but at three and a half, you're getting value on

928
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. So I'm right there with Chad.

929
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,959
Speaker 2: I've just been betting this number all week. It's gonna

930
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 2: be my most public bed of the week. All the

931
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 2: public has just coming heavy on this forty nine Ers team.

932
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 2: The pros haven't really made a remove. I know a

933
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 2: couple of guys who took the Cowboys, but I told

934
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 2: you I did the same thing when I just did

935
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 2: with what stuck you. It's like, tell me why you're

936
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 2: doing it, and they really can't. They're just like, well,

937
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 2: it's a good number. These teams are power rated right

938
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 2: by each other, Like I'm just gonna take the doll

939
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 2: here three and a half. And it's like, all right,

940
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 2: that's that's your reasoning. But I feel like we have

941
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 2: good reasons taking this forty nine ers team. The run

942
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 2: blocking scheme, the coaching advantage with the forty nine ers,

943
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 2: the way the forty iris defense is playing without any

944
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 2: injuries to that defense as well. It just feels like

945
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 2: it's all there for this one. So another game I

946
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 2: was going to make my big Balls of the Week,

947
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 2: but I thought Matt Mitchell out for taking the forty

948
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 2: nine ers of big Balls by the week because this

949
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,439
Speaker 2: one is tough. We're just we don't really take prime

950
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 2: time favorites like this and all the money's on, so

951
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 2: we love this number here with forty nine.

952
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 1: I don't think also, I don't think it takes big balls.

953
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:16,800
Speaker 1: Like we've been on this from Sunday night, our opinion

954
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: hasn't changed. Nobody has told me anything that to make

955
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 1: to change my mind that I don't want to be

956
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 1: in the Niners. You just you just said it. You're

957
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 1: preaching it, better coach, better system at home. Matt Mitchell

958
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: was saying in the chat, this is the regular Genitals

959
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 1: bet of the week. He doesn't think it takes big balls.

960
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 1: I agree. We're just taking the team that we think

961
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 1: is better at home, that has better history and better coaching.

962
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 1: That's it, all right. Last game, we got to do

963
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 1: Green Bay at Las Vegas. This line has moved. It

964
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 1: was Las Vegas plus two now it's Las Vegas plus one.

965
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 1: Sucks because the last guys came in on Vegas. We

966
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 1: love Vegas at plus two.

967
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 2: And I said it sadly like my my stuff cut out.

968
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 2: I was like, I'll break this game more down on Thursday.

969
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 2: I loved lud Vegas love that number. It's gone. We

970
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 2: all bet it, everyone bet it, and it's gone. So

971
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,319
Speaker 2: no opinion this this won't be one of our five.

972
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,399
Speaker 2: But if it was still a two and a half,

973
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 2: I was like, yeah, this is this is a great number.

974
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 2: I didn't I didn't another one. I didn't care who

975
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 2: the ratest quarterback was going to be. You break down

976
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 2: Jordan Love's film. He has moments and he flashes, but

977
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 2: overall he's just he's I don't know. I have a

978
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 2: lot of questions right now about Jordan Love. And I

979
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 2: said it coming to the season, and again I took

980
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 2: a lot of shit from the green fans Green Bay fans.

981
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 2: I was like, he has to come in and be

982
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 2: a pro bowler his year one for your team to

983
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:40,919
Speaker 2: be good and to make the playoffs this year, and

984
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 2: he just has not been that. And a lot of

985
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 2: their guys who we talked about hyped up on their

986
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,240
Speaker 2: defense have not shown up either, Like Green Bay's defense

987
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 2: has struggled as well, where they look great on paper.

988
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 2: So another team that you know Jordan Love. Maybe next year, right,

989
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 2: that that's when we'll see the improvement. But this year

990
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: you're just hoping to see little moments from him, which

991
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 2: you have, But I have no faith of him consistent

992
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 2: and no faith in him. On the road is a

993
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 2: favorite to get these kind of wins. So I'll be

994
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 2: on the dog here. But like Chad said, we missed

995
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: the best number and this will not be in our contest.

996
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,839
Speaker 1: By the way, breaking news, breaking news from the Action

997
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:21,760
Speaker 1: Network news desk via Evan Abrams line change. New Orleans

998
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,760
Speaker 1: Saints are now favorites over the New England Patriots. Man,

999
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 1: that fucking sucks. We got we got the number we

1000
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: want to, but I'm not sure it'll be a contest.

1001
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:35,719
Speaker 1: Play Simon, Simon, my friend, can you name the fastest

1002
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the United States?

1003
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 2: Game Time?

1004
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:44,640
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1005
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 1: love game Time for two reasons. One because they sponsor

1006
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 1: this show. Number two, I actually use game Time to

1007
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,600
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1008
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:58,400
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1009
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: of which I'm going to get time right now from

1010
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 1: my house here in Connecticut. What am I going to

1011
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: go see?

1012
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 2: Woo?

1013
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 1: Well, I got a New York Jets football game coming

1014
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: up in a couple of weeks. Or I could go

1015
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 1: see the New England Patriots host those New Orleans Saints

1016
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 1: for cheap, cheap prices no matter where you live, download

1017
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 1: the game time app, Get out have some fun this week,

1018
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: Go sweat your bets live and in person, and you

1019
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,680
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1020
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: Terms apply again. Just download the app and under code

1021
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:35,960
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1022
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 1: All right, Before we get to the money Line Underdog

1023
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:43,359
Speaker 1: Round Robin parlay, reminders that the Week five contest tiebreaker

1024
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 1: is length of the Raiders first drive. Our predictive analyst

1025
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 1: Billy Ward writes a tiebreaker strategy article every week, and

1026
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 1: a link to that article can be found in the

1027
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 1: episode's description. If you want to leg up in the contest, simon,

1028
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 1: who's going to be our money line Underdog Round Robin?

1029
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 1: Last week we hit four games out of five, so

1030
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: we did some people some good. Dog blocks your dog,

1031
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 1: Your dog blocks mot dog.

1032
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 2: We gotta go Stealers, no brainer. Gotta go with our Colts, Steelers.

1033
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 2: Colts needs me to say it, but it's a good number.

1034
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 2: Gotta go with the.

1035
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 1: Rams Steelers, Colts Rams.

1036
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 2: I can't get there the Minnesota can you get there?

1037
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:34,240
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say.

1038
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 2: Can you get there? Kirk winning over?

1039
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 1: I could just see, like, I like, fuck, the variants

1040
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 1: on the Vikings is so high that I could just

1041
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 1: see it happening right actually off of a big game

1042
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs, the Vikings need to get back in track,

1043
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 1: and like, oh my god.

1044
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 2: I'll do it because right now I'm looking at a

1045
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:58,839
Speaker 2: book and only like eleven percent of the bets are

1046
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 2: on the Vikings money line. So I like that no

1047
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 2: one's believing, which I don't either, honestly.

1048
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: Burg Pittsburgh, Indie, Minnesota Rams.

1049
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 2: I want to do Jacksonville. That's another one though, where

1050
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 2: it's like that's just crazy to wrap my head around

1051
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 2: at Trevor Lawrence beaten. But it is in England, man,

1052
00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 2: Like it's it's weird. It gets weird over there. Cardinals

1053
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 2: like that better than Jacksonville. I can't. I can't see

1054
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 2: Jacksonville win an hour.

1055
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 1: I like that one better, all right, money Line Round

1056
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:32,759
Speaker 1: Robin Pittsburgh, Indie, Minnesota, Rams, Arizona. Okay, Simon, I want

1057
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 1: you to make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza

1058
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 1: sponsor of the NFL. Part of your game day is

1059
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 1: watching football, Simon and ordering Little Caesars your favorite NFL

1060
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 1: parlay this week. Yes, Chad, order online during our Pizza

1061
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:53,320
Speaker 1: Pizza pregame one hour before NFL games and get ready

1062
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 1: for some football and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesars

1063
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 1: pizza or pick the toppings your crave Simon. I don't

1064
00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 1: know if I'm gonna like this answer. Do you judge

1065
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 1: people by the toppings they order in their pizza?

1066
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 2: Always?

1067
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:08,759
Speaker 1: Well, I like to get a lot of vegetables in

1068
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: my pizza. But however you order your pizza, you win.

1069
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or

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Speaker 1: I'm a survival for the Survivor Pool Pick of the Week.

1073
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:40,240
Speaker 2: It feels like there's only one answer and we're gonna

1074
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 2: lose on it, but we got to use them Detroit. No,

1075
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 2: there's no way to sugarcoat that I'm an asshole. So's

1076
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 2: that's about the best way to put it. And I

1077
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 2: hate it.

1078
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 1: Oh.

1079
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, Oh, Miami's not bad either, but

1080
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:55,240
Speaker 2: I don't know when else we'll we use Detroit.

1081
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 1: All right, use Detroit.

1082
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 2: Put Miami's are too, but I figure we'll be able

1083
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 2: to use Miami again down the road where Detroit. This

1084
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 2: is like, this is the classic. This team is peaking

1085
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 2: in September October, and that's just going to be rough

1086
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 2: sledding for them November December. So I would prefer to

1087
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 2: use Detroit now, all right.

1088
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 1: Detroit it is. As a reminder, the favorite podcast is

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Speaker 1: we get out of here, we're joined by Action Network

1104
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 1: Director Research, Evan Abrams, the engine behind the great stats

1105
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 1: and nuggets you hear on this show and across our network.

1106
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, you get the last word.

1107
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 3: What's up, fellas? So last week I was really nice

1108
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:24,399
Speaker 3: to you guys. I gave some good stuff to back

1109
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 3: this week. With Halloween coming up this month, I'm get

1110
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 3: a little scarier, so I apologize ahead of time.

1111
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 2: But you guys talk.

1112
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 3: You guys talked about public sides, Chad, you talked about

1113
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 3: how good they're doing this season. So let's continue with

1114
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 3: that with a little bit of line movement stuff, which

1115
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 3: is a little scary because I don't think it's going

1116
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 3: to continue. But right now, if you follow the line

1117
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:48,400
Speaker 3: movement this year, so that's any line that moved in

1118
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 3: the direction from the opening the closing line, so minus

1119
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 3: five to minus six. So if you follow the line

1120
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 3: movement this year, you are thirty six and twenty one

1121
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 3: straight up thirty twenty four to three against the spread

1122
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 3: versus the closing line. The previous two seasons you were

1123
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 3: fifty games under five hundred in that spot. Even scarier

1124
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 3: teams to move two points or more so far this year,

1125
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 3: so that's like minus five to minus seven, are seventeen

1126
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:15,760
Speaker 3: and seven straight up, fifteen to eight and one against

1127
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 3: the spread. That fifteen to eight in one mark is

1128
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 3: the second best start for those big line moves through

1129
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 3: four weeks, so we've almost never seen the closing line

1130
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 3: kind of not matter with those big leaps, so like

1131
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 3: this week, that would be Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit, New Orleans, Miami.

1132
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 3: There's a lot this week so far, so follow Action Labs,

1133
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 3: follow Action Network, you can follow the line movement and

1134
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 3: two points or more. It's been an unreal start, so

1135
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 3: it's a little scary, but I figure it's good information. Okay,

1136
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:48,919
Speaker 3: moving on to number two. So this is a cap

1137
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 3: tip to Brandon Anderson who found this last year and

1138
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 3: it's continued so far. So the Falcons will play the

1139
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 3: Texans this week after their London game without a bye week.

1140
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 3: Only ten times in NFL history as a team returned

1141
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 3: home from Europe without a bite week, every one of

1142
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:07,319
Speaker 3: those teams has been tied or trailing in the fourth

1143
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 3: quarter of the following week. So maybe this is a

1144
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 3: live tip because we hope the Falcons win for your picks,

1145
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:16,759
Speaker 3: but so far not the greatest start, a little bit

1146
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 3: tough without the rest. Also, I want to mention this

1147
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 3: the Falcons continue their journey this year. They have zero

1148
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:26,879
Speaker 3: games with a positive rest differential all season, so this

1149
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 3: continues in that same spot, so hopefully they continue. I'm

1150
00:54:29,960 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 3: on Atlanta, so hopefully that all happens as well and

1151
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 3: we'll end here.

1152
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 2: So listen.

1153
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 3: I know this is a picking spreads, picking sides pod,

1154
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 3: but I know Chad loves three things in life, healthy food,

1155
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 3: referee trends, and weather. So in the next ten days

1156
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 3: we have some windy games, games with ten plus mile

1157
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 3: an hour. Wins are higher at kickoff ninety six and

1158
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 3: fifty to the under. That's sixty six percent in the

1159
00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:00,799
Speaker 3: last three seasons, and that's fifty seven over the last

1160
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:03,799
Speaker 3: twenty years. This year so far four and over to

1161
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:06,600
Speaker 3: the under by almost ten points per game. Right now,

1162
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 3: that's Baltimore and Pittsburgh, New England and the Saints and

1163
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 3: actually Denver in Kansas City currently on Thursday Night football

1164
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:18,240
Speaker 3: next week. So again, keep up with Action Labs, Action Network,

1165
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 3: bet Labs check the wind because there could be some

1166
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 3: advantages there.

1167
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:27,120
Speaker 1: Thanks fellows, Evan, do you speak my love language? It's

1168
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:30,360
Speaker 1: just amazing. All right, here's a recap our Foxhole is

1169
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: in d plus two and a half. We are alone

1170
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,720
Speaker 1: on that one. Big balls is Pittsburgh plus four. Exec

1171
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:38,200
Speaker 1: decision from earlier this week was New Orleans plus one

1172
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: and a half. Look, folks, that line moved. It is

1173
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 1: now New Orleans is a favorite minus one. Simon says,

1174
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:46,279
Speaker 1: is Atlanta minus two our round robin money line round

1175
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 1: robin underdog parlay Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the Rams, Minnesota, Arizona. Simon,

1176
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 1: we had to make five contest picks right now, Here's

1177
00:55:56,200 --> 00:56:02,280
Speaker 1: where I think we'd be the Saves five, Pittsburgh plus four,

1178
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 1: Atlanta minus two. I think we'd be San Francisco minus

1179
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:07,840
Speaker 1: three and a half. I think we'd probably be the

1180
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 1: Rams plus four and a half. And then it come

1181
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 1: down to Denver minus two and a half Minnesota plus four.

1182
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I was just looking, we're like all in

1183
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 2: on these Lake games. There's only four Lake games day.

1184
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 2: I think we're like deciding between three of them. So

1185
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 2: only one that I'm like, okay, we have to have

1186
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 2: it in right now is that we didn't talk about.

1187
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 2: Did you mention Colts?

1188
00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 1: Oh shoot Colts, Yeah, no, we should do.

1189
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 2: That's one of those where if it's two and a half,

1190
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:33,239
Speaker 2: I feel like, all right, that one's automatically going to

1191
00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:35,799
Speaker 2: be in because that's such a good number. So yeah,

1192
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 2: me and you will wap off this car and we'll

1193
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 2: get our five. And like we did last weekend, you know,

1194
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:41,879
Speaker 2: we didn't make a single change. So what you're hearing

1195
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:44,319
Speaker 2: right now, probably me and Chat are going to go

1196
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 2: with like the one or two team might be in

1197
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 2: our and out, but as we see it right now,

1198
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:50,480
Speaker 2: like the Vikings the Rams, I could see them being

1199
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:51,840
Speaker 2: on the outside and I was taking a lot of

1200
00:56:51,880 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 2: these short home dogs.

1201
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, if I had a guess, Pittsburgh plus

1202
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 1: four Atlanta my two Indie plus two and a half

1203
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:06,759
Speaker 1: San Francisco minus three and a half might end up

1204
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 1: being Minnesota plus four, Rams plus four something like that,

1205
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 1: Like it all right? Reminder Simon and I will be

1206
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 1: back with our week five recap episode live on the

1207
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page every Sunday seven thirty pm Eastern.

1208
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,

1209
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 1: weve us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is

1210
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 1: a gift until Thursday at eleven am Eastern.

1211
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 3: Love You.

1212
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler