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Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Welcome to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to

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Speaker 1: you by bet mgm use a code Betting Pros when

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Speaker 1: you make your first deposit to get up to a

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Speaker 1: one thousand dollars risk free bet.

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Speaker 2: I'm Matthew Friedman, Matt.

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Speaker 1: At the Oracle in here with me to talk NFL

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Speaker 1: week nine market movement and power ratings. Is mister power

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Speaker 1: Rank himself Ed Fang, the proprietor of thepowerank dot Com.

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Speaker 1: They've got a great newsletter, be sure to check that out.

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Speaker 1: And he's also the host of the Football Analytics Show,

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Speaker 1: which I listen to every week I have, as you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm something of a podcast power listener. Yeah, that's one

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Speaker 1: of the sports betting ones that I always listen to

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Speaker 1: each week.

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Speaker 2: How's it going.

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Speaker 3: It's going great. Thank you so much for listening. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's an honor to put that together. And you know,

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Speaker 3: really trying to put some effort into getting some new

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Speaker 3: guests on this fall. Still trying to get more and

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Speaker 3: new guests, and yeah, thanks for listening.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the episode that you did, I believe it was

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Speaker 1: last week or the week before with Cleaveta that was

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Speaker 1: a really good one. I mean, they're all good. They're

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Speaker 1: all good, but I really enjoyed that one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Thanks, it was really fun getting him on. Had to

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Speaker 3: move some things because he's he's a busy guy. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: he's doing a lot of different things. He talked about

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Speaker 3: a little bit with his finance career and stuff. But

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Speaker 3: I think that's kind of an example of people. I'm

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Speaker 3: trying to bring on someone who you know, has a following,

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Speaker 3: but you know, I'm not necessarily trying to get him

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Speaker 3: on because of his following to promote myself. Just I

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Speaker 3: really want to see how different people think. I love

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Speaker 3: having you on when we're talking NFL drafts, when we're

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Speaker 3: talking Super Bowl props and trying to get a diversity

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Speaker 3: of views, because I actually think that's the key to betting,

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Speaker 3: the key to fantasy, like getting as many different data

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Speaker 3: sources as possible, putting them together in a meaningful way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, on the idea of you know, diversity of views.

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Speaker 1: You are a math guy. You know you've got the

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Speaker 1: statistics back and you know that's that's one way people

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Speaker 1: get into sports betting. Another way people get into sports

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Speaker 1: betting is just say I like sports. I have these

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Speaker 1: thoughts on this game. You know, I think one thing

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Speaker 1: that's cool is that you do have the the background

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Speaker 1: to be able to look at numbers and say, okay,

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Speaker 1: well this number is off for this reason, and so

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Speaker 1: I think there's an edge there and that's some of

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Speaker 1: the work that you are doing at the Power Rank.

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Speaker 1: Can you talk about your website, you know, the things

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Speaker 1: that people can find there, and how it is that

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Speaker 1: you got into sports analytics.

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Speaker 3: For sure, the Power Rank, I'm trying to make that

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Speaker 3: into the best resource for predictive analytics for people who

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Speaker 3: want to bet on football. The main thing that people

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Speaker 3: come by for is my best predictions. They're available to

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Speaker 3: members of the Powerank. And again it's based on this

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Speaker 3: idea that we're not just gonna look at play by

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Speaker 3: play data and come up with the best prediction. We're

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Speaker 3: not gonna just look at that one source. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I try to consult a variety of sources. There's a

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Speaker 3: lot of market day in there. There's obviously the play

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Speaker 3: by play because that's an crucial part of bringing it

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Speaker 3: in as well, but also for the NFL, I have

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Speaker 3: a lot of wisdom of crowd metrics that I use

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Speaker 3: as well that are still meaningful at this point in

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Speaker 3: the season. That's not how it started. It was over

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Speaker 3: a decade ago. I was in academia and crying to

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Speaker 3: get out, so I was looking to do something different,

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Speaker 3: and it turned out that I was reading about Google's

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Speaker 3: PageRank algorithm, and that algorithm is based on the same

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Speaker 3: math that I did my PhD and when I was

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Speaker 3: at Stanford, and I thought, oh, that's pretty cool. You know,

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Speaker 3: we should do something actually useful like ranking sports teams

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Speaker 3: and scraped some NFL data together, put together some rankings,

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Speaker 3: spit out some predictions, and send an email to some

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Speaker 3: friends and people were interested. So I was like, oh,

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Speaker 3: this is pretty cool, and things just kind of grew

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Speaker 3: from there, put together a site, started writing about some things,

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Speaker 3: and it's come a long way. Like over a decade ago,

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Speaker 3: I thought this was more about analytics and content, and

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Speaker 3: pretty quickly realized that people who want to bet on

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Speaker 3: games were the most interested in this, and so the

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Speaker 3: site has evolved to cater to people who want to

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Speaker 3: bet on these games. And it's not just like the

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Speaker 3: primary prediction as well, try to break down the most

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Speaker 3: important parts of college football and NFL teams in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: That really means looking at passing statistics a lot more

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Speaker 3: than rushing statistics, and I found that passing success rate

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Speaker 3: is the most predictive of NFL statistics, particularly on offense.

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Speaker 3: Past defense tends to be less predictive. Defense tends to

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Speaker 3: be less predictive overall in the NFL, too, which I

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Speaker 3: think is an important thing to understand. The Cincinnati Bengals

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Speaker 3: were first in my past defensive rankings before this past

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Speaker 3: week and got completely annihilated on Monday night. And it's

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Speaker 3: just one example of it's more difficult to predict defense

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Speaker 3: than it is to predict offense. So the site's come

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Speaker 3: a long way.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: It's not just marginal victory justin for shrink the schedule anymore.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at things like passing success rate, yards for

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Speaker 3: past attempt and and a lot of other a lot

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Speaker 3: of other metrics. Anything that I can find that is

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Speaker 3: predictive towards the future, I'm going to try to use it.

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Speaker 1: So you you mentioned I'm glad you mentioned passing success

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Speaker 1: rate because I was going to ask, you know, out

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Speaker 1: of the sort of play by play or you know,

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Speaker 1: like on field metrics, you know, what were some of

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Speaker 1: the things that that you look at You know, people

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Speaker 1: look at EPA, they look at yards per play, look

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Speaker 1: at success right. You found that success rate has the

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Speaker 1: most predictive value out of anything that and specifically passing

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Speaker 1: success rate.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, passing success rate on offense is the most predictive

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Speaker 3: statistic I found. Actually just put together a patron only

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Speaker 3: episode on my podcast about it, and it was some

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Speaker 3: more that I did last year. And and you know,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's more predictive than even EPA expected

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Speaker 3: points at it that that a lot of people use.

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Speaker 3: It's it's more predictive than yours for past at tenth,

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Speaker 3: which I used for years before getting on the success

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Speaker 3: rate bandwagon. So it's a really important thing. It's not

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Speaker 3: the end all, be all of everything either, I I

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Speaker 3: and actually I've just been thinking that, Like I think

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Speaker 3: I talk about success rate a little bit too much.

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Speaker 3: I kind of need to round out some things. And

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Speaker 3: because because it can be a faulty number, like I

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Speaker 3: have the Green Bay Packers fourth when I look at

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Speaker 3: adjusted success rate, and there's a whole host of reasons

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Speaker 3: why that's too high. We can get into them if

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Speaker 3: you want, but.

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Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I'm I'm interested in that. We we

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Speaker 1: will talk about you know, market movement teams that have

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Speaker 1: moved up down in our power ratings. And I'll say, like,

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Speaker 1: I was very guilty of holding on to my prior

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Speaker 1: on the Green Bay Packers far longer into the season

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Speaker 1: than I problem should have. But there were things that

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Speaker 1: you could look at to sort of excuse why their

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Speaker 1: play wasn't measuring up. You know, Okay, at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of the season, they were missing their two tackles in

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Speaker 1: week one, they were without Alan Lazard. You know, they're

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Speaker 1: integrating some rookie wide receivers. You know, Sammy Watkins goes

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Speaker 1: out with a hamstring injury, which you know predictable, but still,

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Speaker 1: you know, there are all of these things that that

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Speaker 1: pop up that you can sort of contextualize to say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: they've underperformed, but I still think the prior has a

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Speaker 1: lot of significant weight because he's Aaron Rodgers and he's

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Speaker 1: in the system, and these other things will right themselves.

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Speaker 1: But they haven't righted themselves, at least not yet. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: we can we can certainly have the conversation about the Packers.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned wisdom of the crowds and bringing that into

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Speaker 1: or layering that on top of the play by play

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Speaker 1: type of analysis that you have. Can you talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit about blending the two.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. I mean there's a lot of different ways. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: I mean there's a market component of what I do,

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Speaker 3: and that's obviously wisdom of crowds in terms of the

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Speaker 3: closing line being a very accurate predictor, in fact the

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Speaker 3: gold standard of what we can say about predicting these games.

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Speaker 3: Another component where I use wisdom of crowds is in

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Speaker 3: the preseason. So this kind of started when I learned

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Speaker 3: that the preseason ap pole in college sports was was

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Speaker 3: a kind of astoundingly accurate predictor. I think they started

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Speaker 3: in college basketball and Ken Pommeroy and Nate Silver we're

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Speaker 3: talking about using the preseason ap pole to predict the tournament,

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Speaker 3: which on the surface just sounds crazy because it has

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Speaker 3: you know, it knows nothing about what happened during the

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Speaker 3: course of the season, and everyone's going to tell you

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Speaker 3: data analytics, you know, like, how do we do that

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Speaker 3: best based on what seems like a sizable sample of

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Speaker 3: thirty some games. It turns out the preseason an ap

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Speaker 3: pole if you just look at tournament games on a

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Speaker 3: neutral site and you just make the simple prediction that

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Speaker 3: the higher ranked team the preseason AP pole should be

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Speaker 3: a lower ranked team. Any ranked team should be an

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Speaker 3: unranked team. I think it's like seventy two percent predict

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Speaker 3: seventy two percent of game winners, something astounding. I did

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Speaker 3: a study in five thirty eight and showed that that

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Speaker 3: it was a couple percentage points better than the RPI.

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Speaker 3: So that was the ranking system that the tournament committee

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Speaker 3: used to use. So that was kind of a fun,

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Speaker 3: fun article. So the preseason AP pole is predicted because

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Speaker 3: of wisdom of crowds. No one polster is going to

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Speaker 3: have the perfect pole, but you put enough of them

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Speaker 3: together and you get a very accurate You get a

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Speaker 3: very accurate assessment of team strength, how much talent that

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Speaker 3: these teams have, and that shines through much later in

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Speaker 3: the season. So I started doing that for the NFL,

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Speaker 3: you know, every year, and so I grab about twenty

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Speaker 3: subjective power rankings, usually from the major you know, the

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Speaker 3: major outlets ESPNS and the bleacher reports and of the world,

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Speaker 3: and and I actually try to pick stuff that that

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Speaker 3: are not calculations, you know, I don't I don't go

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Speaker 3: to football outsiders and grab their rankings or anything like that.

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Speaker 3: I try to get stuff that's subjective in the hopes

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Speaker 3: of getting some kind of diver in the hopes of

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Speaker 3: getting diversity. And it's the same ideas I'm trying to

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Speaker 3: create a preseason ap pole in the NFL. I have

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Speaker 3: to be really predictive. I actually did a study this year,

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Speaker 3: Like the last couple of years, it's been as good

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Speaker 3: as some preseason metrics I do based on the betting markets,

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Speaker 3: which really should not be true.

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Speaker 2: But.

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Speaker 3: It has been over the last two years. The data

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Speaker 3: from the wind totals I think has been better if

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Speaker 3: you look at like five years or something like that.

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Speaker 3: The last couple of years. This little really dumb Wisdom

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Speaker 3: of Crowds model dumb in the sense, you know, like.

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Speaker 2: Simple, yeah, yeah, I mean these are just a.

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Speaker 3: Lot of talking heads that you probably might individually not

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Speaker 3: pay attention to, you know, like somewhere from the NFL

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Speaker 3: network saying actually, I was just I just had this

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Speaker 3: on when I was eating my lunch, like, oh, you know,

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Speaker 3: the Niners are better than the Vikings because because I

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Speaker 3: just like the way they're going, you know, stuff like that. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: So people like that, I mean, that's kind of what

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Speaker 3: I'm getting from and the beauty of this is that

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Speaker 3: the wisdom of crowds, and you put enough of these together,

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Speaker 3: the errors kind of cancel out and you get some

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Speaker 3: signal there. And yeah, it's a pretty powerful thing that

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Speaker 3: I've used. And I think it just means that, like

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Speaker 3: I try to get diversity into my model, and I

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Speaker 3: really try to go for that, and I'm always trying

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Speaker 3: to go for that. That's kind of how I try

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Speaker 3: to improve things every year. One thing I didn't addam

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Speaker 3: in this year, but you know, one thing I'm learning

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Speaker 3: is a lot of people are doing these studies about

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Speaker 3: how much the preseason matters, preseason data matters, and predicting

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Speaker 3: the outcome of the current season. And you can kind

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Speaker 3: of say, oh, yeah, well maybe that matters for actually, well,

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Speaker 3: it's actually kind of surprising, but there's been some people

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Speaker 3: that have done some work that shown that preseason games,

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Speaker 3: the results in those games basketball, baseball, football, even football

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Speaker 3: has has some predictive value. I'm not sure how well

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Speaker 3: that worked out this year. I didn't put them in

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Speaker 3: my model, but I did do some calculations on the

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Speaker 3: three preseason games that every team played, actually justin for

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Speaker 3: strength to schedule with my algorithm, and I do remember

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Speaker 3: that the Raiders were at the top, so we do

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Speaker 3: need to look at that. We need to look at

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Speaker 3: how things are changing as we go to like fewer

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Speaker 3: preseason games. But I mean, that's that's something I'm potentially

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Speaker 3: looking to put in my model next year as I

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Speaker 3: can back test and figure out more how accurate it is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I'm glad you mentioned the Raiders for

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Speaker 1: a couple of reasons.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: The first is that I have a plug that I

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Speaker 1: need to get at some point, so I might as

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Speaker 1: well give it now. It has to do with Josh Jacobs.

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Speaker 1: If you want a chance to win assigned Josh Jacobs

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders jersey from Prissian Auction, subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel right now comment below on this

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Speaker 1: video and that's it will announce a winner on the channel.

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Speaker 1: So turn on notifications so you can see when new

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Speaker 1: episodes are up and to claim your prize, because that's

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Speaker 1: the first thing you needed to get the Josh Jacobs

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Speaker 1: plug out of the way, donezo. The number two reason

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Speaker 1: why I'm glad you mentioned it is because I was

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Speaker 1: I would say, like obstinately opposed to a lot of

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Speaker 1: people in the preseason whenever they were talking about how

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Speaker 1: great the Raiders were going to be, and I just

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Speaker 1: I looked at this team, so it's weird, like they

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Speaker 1: are better actually than I thought they would be, just

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Speaker 1: kind of in some underlying metrics. But they're still you know,

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're not a good team. They're a team

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Speaker 1: that doesn't win football games. And you know, under eight

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Speaker 1: and a half on their season long win total was

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Speaker 1: one of the strongest positions that I had entering the season,

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Speaker 1: in part because of them, in part, you know, because

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Speaker 1: of some quirks with their schedule. I just looked at

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Speaker 1: it and I was like, this, this feels.

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Speaker 2: Like a very strong bet here.

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Speaker 1: And you know, unless they really run the table in

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Speaker 1: the second half of the season, it looks like that

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Speaker 1: bet has a very good chance of cashing. But good, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: what do you make of the Raiders because it you know,

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Speaker 1: there are times when they look incredibly competent, uh and

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Speaker 1: you can sort of see like, okay, they're doing this

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Speaker 1: with the organization that makes sense, and then last week

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Speaker 1: they go out a big shoutout loss on the road

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Speaker 1: against the Saints. What are your thoughts on the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: and I just like, how far you have You have

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Speaker 1: obviously the power rank, You've got rankings, NFL rankings.

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Speaker 2: On your site. How much have you adjusted the Raiders

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Speaker 2: from the beginning of the season to where they are

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Speaker 2: right now?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it certainly hasn't been good. I could certainly.

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Speaker 3: I mean my case for the Raiders preseason would have been, hey,

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Speaker 3: they added DeVante Adams. I've always liked Derek Carr as

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Speaker 3: a quarterback, like you you have Hunter renfro And and Waller,

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Speaker 3: like you have all the ingredients there for a great

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Speaker 3: pass offense. Okay, you have issues on the offensive line.

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Speaker 3: You lost a lot of keep people on the defensive

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Speaker 3: side of the ball. I get that, But you know, again,

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Speaker 3: pass offense is the most predictive thing. So that hasn't

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Speaker 3: been the case at all. Uh. They started as like

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Speaker 3: a slightly above average team and they're getting downgraded, not

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Speaker 3: by a ton, they're they're below average team now. But

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Speaker 3: you know this is I mean, Derek Carr has led

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Speaker 3: when when you look at passing success right over the

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Speaker 3: last couple of seasons, you know, this has been a

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Speaker 3: top ten unit, top five unit even some seasons and

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Speaker 3: it's a little bit surprising that they haven't done better.

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Speaker 3: They're twenty first when I look at passing success rate

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Speaker 3: adjuster for who you've played. That's a disappointment given the

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Speaker 3: weapons that he's had. And I know a Waller was

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Speaker 3: out a couple of games, but yeah, no, I mean definitely,

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Speaker 3: you know, they're just not getting it done at this point,

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Speaker 3: right like they were supposed to be that four team

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Speaker 3: that could really shake it up in a division that

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Speaker 3: looked amazing, and well, a lot of things have happened

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Speaker 3: to that division. This is since the start of the season.

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Speaker 2: Right totally.

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Speaker 1: So a couple of teams, A few teams that have

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Speaker 1: moved up the most since last week in my power ratings,

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Speaker 1: the Panthers. I had them as the dead last team

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Speaker 1: in my power ratings. Now they're you know, I think,

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Speaker 1: like second to last. But they looked like a team

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Speaker 1: that was just absolutely about to fall apart. They had

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Speaker 1: fired Matt Ruhle, traded away some pieces. But over the

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Speaker 1: past two weeks, this team has played, you know, like

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Speaker 1: they they feel a little bit like last year's Lions

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Speaker 1: in that they're out there competing, trying to win, and

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Speaker 1: they are a talent deficient roster, but they are still

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Speaker 1: giving it everything they have. So I looked at them

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Speaker 1: previously as a team that was just totally dead. Uh,

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Speaker 1: And now I have a higher opinion of them. I've

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Speaker 1: also bumped up significantly since last week the Seahawks and

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins in part. You know, the Dolphins their offensive

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Speaker 1: starting to click again with a quarterback. They did just

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Speaker 1: make a trade, uh for Bradley Chubb at the trade

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Speaker 1: deadline in Seattle. You know, I feel like I was

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Speaker 1: maybe you know, talk I talked earlier about, you know,

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Speaker 1: holding onto priors. I may be held on to the

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Speaker 1: prior a little too strongly of Seattle being a bad team.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: And you know Geno Smith being not a great quarterback,

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Speaker 1: but he's looked like a great quarterback this year. And

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Speaker 1: so now I'm just I'm making that adjustment late as

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Speaker 1: it is. I'm I'm making the adjustment of I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, Seattle, we have to see if their defense

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Speaker 1: can you know, do for the rest of the season

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Speaker 1: what it's done in the past two or three weeks.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I'm just kind of making the adjustment

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Speaker 1: of Seattle is not an awful team. Maybe they're around

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Speaker 1: an average team. Those are kind of the bigger moves

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Speaker 1: that I've made since last week. Do you have any

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Speaker 1: thoughts on those teams?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, I mean Seattle is definitely one of the teams

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Speaker 3: that I made a move on. Mine is all algorithmic,

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Speaker 3: so it will take data from the current season, it

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Speaker 3: will keep adding it to metrics like yards for past

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Speaker 3: attempt passing success rate, both on offense and defense, and

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Speaker 3: it'll make an adjustment. And clearly, when you have the

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Speaker 3: results that Seattle did over this past week, it definitely

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Speaker 3: moved them up. When I do things algorithmically, like the

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Speaker 3: one thing that that I would note, you know, everything

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Speaker 3: I do gives a team a rating, which is how

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Speaker 3: I produce predictions. In the NFL, the changes are pretty small,

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Speaker 3: so the biggest move was, you know, not even a point,

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Speaker 3: So a team is not going to move a lot

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Speaker 3: any one week. And I've actually found that I don't

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Speaker 3: I don't do that anymore in college football because I

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Speaker 3: found that wasn't aggressive enough. I found in college football

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Speaker 3: I can get more accurate predictions if I make very

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Speaker 3: aggressive adjustments. So you know, it's not not uncommon to

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Speaker 3: for a team to go up to three points based

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Speaker 3: on a performance, and I've just found that.

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Speaker 2: To be better.

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Speaker 3: In terms of the air metrics in the NFL, I've

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Speaker 3: found that not to be better, although you can certainly

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Speaker 3: make the case that this year is changing everything. As

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Speaker 3: you know, Green Bay and Tampa Bay have certainly not

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Speaker 3: performed like we expected them to. This preseason in Philadelphia

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Speaker 3: has just absolutely astounded I think anyone who follows the sport.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, so you know, I don't think there's any

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Speaker 3: right way to you do it. I found in the

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Speaker 3: past that things tend to regress in the NFL. Chris

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Speaker 3: Andrews talks about this. He's the he's the he's the

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Speaker 3: the manager of the South Point Sports Book, and he

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Speaker 3: always talks about you can follow momentum and football, but

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Speaker 3: you'll get crush following momentum in the NFL. And so far,

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Speaker 3: you might not be getting crushed in the NFL this year.

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Speaker 3: If you're following momentum, if you're following these Eagles, if

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Speaker 3: you're willing to lay fourteen at Houston on a Thursday night,

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Speaker 3: it might pay off. We should talk about that game.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, but yeah, I think the general approach I

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Speaker 3: think is interesting and I think this NFL season in

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Speaker 3: particular in twenty twenty two is pretty interesting because it's

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Speaker 3: breaking some of the rules so far, at least with

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Speaker 3: certain teams.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so.

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Speaker 1: You are high or you made a move this week

397
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Speaker 1: on the Seahawks. You also made a move on the Browns.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on what we saw on Monday

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Speaker 1: Night football?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean what we saw was a big disappointment.

401
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 3: Actually just put some futures bets on Cincinnati before that game,

402
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 3: using some of my metrics and some of the unabated calculators.

403
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Speaker 3: So that was a disappointment. Actually had over in that game,

404
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Speaker 3: which looked like a colossal failure at the end of

405
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Speaker 3: the first half, but ended up pushing it forty five,

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00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 3: so that was kind of nice. I think we had

407
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Speaker 3: seen a lot from Cincinnati in terms of their offense,

408
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Speaker 3: in terms of getting in the shotgun and a lot

409
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Speaker 3: of a lot of points. I want to say that

410
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 3: they just had a bad game on offense or oh

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Speaker 3: you know what else was interesting, Like you know Jamar Chase,

412
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Speaker 3: like the news that he was out didn't really move

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Speaker 3: the total or the side that much.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it didn't, and I think.

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00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 3: You can I mean I want to say, hey, well

416
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Speaker 3: that total should have gone up. So it really should

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Speaker 3: have closed forty six, That's what I think, and it

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Speaker 3: didn't because Jamar Chase means a point or something like that, right.

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Speaker 3: I thought that was interesting, So you know, I think

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Speaker 3: I will stick with Cincinnati probably had a bad game

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Speaker 3: here and Cleveland had a really good game here. Obviously

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Speaker 3: Cleveland gets the benefit of the doubt. They are the

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Speaker 3: other big mover that I wrote down for this past week.

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Speaker 3: But I certainly don't don't think that means the end

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Speaker 3: for Cincinnati. And this is the team that, like I

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Speaker 3: was just making fun of all throughout their Super Bowl

427
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Speaker 3: run last year, how they're not that good, YadA, YadA, YadA,

428
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Speaker 3: And now you know they're. I mean, after a rough

429
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Speaker 3: start to the season, they've been pretty good over the

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Speaker 3: last couple of games. They were actually first, like I

431
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Speaker 3: was mentioning, they were first in my passing success rted

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Speaker 3: justin for opponent, And I mean, that's too high. They're

433
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Speaker 3: not the best pass defense in the NFL. It's just

434
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Speaker 3: it's just not a true statement. But but yeah, I

435
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Speaker 3: think we saw that a little bit.

436
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I mean, they're they're definitely not the

437
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 1: best pass defense. After losing cornerback Chado bay Woozier. He's

438
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: out for the year within an ACL tear uh And honestly,

439
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: the Jamar Chase injury. Like I try not to to

440
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 1: react too much to any one player being out with injury,

441
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: but Chase, he's a really important part of what they

442
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 1: do on offense. You know, he opens everything up for

443
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 1: everyone else, and you know, with his yakability, any given

444
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 1: reception he can turn into a long touchdown. And so

445
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 1: they are the team the Bengals that I have downrated

446
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 1: the most from last week. I've knocked them down a

447
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 1: full point. And Houston as well, the Texans, like they

448
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 1: just they feel like a team that is just dying.

449
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: And the thing is, and we'll talk about Thursday Night Football.

450
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 1: Even with knocking them down a full point from last

451
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 1: week to this week, I'm not getting anywhere close to force,

452
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 1: you know. So it's like a part of me just

453
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 1: feeling like I need to knock him down more, like

454
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 1: I need to I need to like approach this market

455
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 1: number to make my overall power ratings a little more

456
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,239
Speaker 1: representative of reality. But those are the two teams that

457
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 1: I've really knocked down, and then the Rams not quite

458
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 1: as much as the Texans and the Bengals, but still

459
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 1: a sign magnificant amount from last week. I thought what

460
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 1: they showed against the forty nine Ers was pretty disappointing.

461
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: You know, they looked good in the scripted portion of

462
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 1: the game, but you know at the end, they just

463
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: they did not respond in the second half and they

464
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 1: just got absolutely boat raced.

465
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 2: So the Texans, the Bengals, the Rams. Thoughts on the

466
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 2: moves down for those teams.

467
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I can't disagree with anything that you're saying.

468
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 3: Definitely want to chime in on the Rams because I

469
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,199
Speaker 3: actually loved the fact that I had Rams plus one

470
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: and a half at home against San Francisco, got some

471
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 3: massive line movement as the Rams ended up favored by

472
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 3: one or one and a half. I don't even know

473
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 3: where I closed that. In most places, you patch yourself

474
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 3: on the back. They're up early in the first half,

475
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 3: they're up in the second half, and then it just

476
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 3: all fell apart, and you know, I mean, you know,

477
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: kudos to the Niners. The Rams were a team that

478
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 3: I was kind of making fun of towards the end

479
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 3: of the playoffs last year too. I remember when they

480
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 3: played Arizona I was like, these teams both suck, right,

481
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 3: this is the whoever wins this game is not going

482
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 3: to go that far. And obviously they played their best

483
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 3: football in the in the playoffs and and won the

484
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 3: super Bowl. But I think we're kind of seeing that,

485
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 3: you know, they have some problems and you know, maybe

486
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 3: I mean, I mean they may they may get it

487
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 3: back together, but a downgrade on the Rams is certainly

488
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 3: justified after what we saw.

489
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 2: Yeah.

490
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 1: Absolutely, So let's any other any other teams here? You

491
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 1: mentioned you mentioned the Packers earlier in the show. I

492
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 1: suppose it's worth talking about them from the beginning of

493
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 1: the season to now. Do you know how far they

494
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: have fallen in your ratings? So to put some numbers

495
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: to this, the Rams have dropped the farthest in my ratings,

496
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: four point twenty five points after them the Colts. You know,

497
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 1: part of that is tied to Benching Matt Ryan, but

498
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: there's also been significant underperformance there. I have the Steelers

499
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,719
Speaker 1: down three point five points. Oh, can't forget the Broncos

500
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: down three point seventy five points. For me, I guess

501
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: I'm still holding probably a little bit stronger to the

502
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 1: prior than I should. Both the Buccaneers and the Packers

503
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: are down two point five points for me from where

504
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: I had them to start the year. Where are they

505
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 1: for you?

506
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, not quite as much. I've certainly downgraded on green Bay,

507
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 3: but it looks like about a point and a half.

508
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 3: And part of that is the passing success, right, stuff

509
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 3: that I was telling you about before. That's one of

510
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 3: the biggest I mean, it is the biggest part that

511
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 3: comes from the Playboy play data, and they actually look

512
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 3: pretty good on both sides of the ball. Of course,

513
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 3: one metric doesn't capture everything, and when you look at

514
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 3: a little bit more of their explosiveness, when you look

515
00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 3: at you yards for past attempt they're much more NFL

516
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 3: average there. And you can certainly see why that's the case, right,

517
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 3: I mean, with all the not having DeVante Adams, losing

518
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 3: Randall Cobb and Allen Zard didn't play this past week

519
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 3: as well, you know, I mean, Aaron Jones is by

520
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: far the most explosive threat in the passing game, and

521
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 3: that you know, he's a great player as well. So

522
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 3: I did a pretty deep dive into green Bay this week,

523
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 3: and when you look at points points they've scored, they're

524
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 3: like twenty six in the NFL. They're not that bad

525
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 3: on offense. A lot of things have happened such that

526
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,199
Speaker 3: they just haven't scored as many points. So example, in

527
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 3: the game against the Bills on Sunday night, they had

528
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 3: almost four hundred yards of offense. A lot of that

529
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 3: was explosive plays in the running game in the second half,

530
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 3: and we're a little unlucky to score only seventeen points.

531
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 3: They failed on two fourth downs in Bill's territory, so

532
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 3: things like that. They haven't been scoring as many points

533
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 3: as the underlying metrics suggest. Now can we make the

534
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 3: case that this is a top five offense? Absolutely not right.

535
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 3: I mean, there's somewhere near the fat part of the

536
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 3: middle in the NFL. But you know, is there potentially

537
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 3: some value with the Packers. I think so, especially since

538
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 3: they're playing what I think over the last two years

539
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 3: has been the worst pass defense in the NFL, and

540
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 3: that would be the Detroit Lions. There's been nothing good

541
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 3: about them. Even with the issues that the Packers have

542
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 3: at the receiver position, I think they're gonna have success

543
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,959
Speaker 3: against a really poor secondary. I also thought, you know,

544
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 3: a lot of things have been made about Aaron Rodgers

545
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: and the thumb and whether that's been an issue. You know,

546
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 3: from the game on Sunday night, I can't say that

547
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 3: I thought it was an issue. I didn't think he

548
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 3: was really off on any of his throws. I actually

549
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 3: thought he was pretty decent. He doesn't have the weapons

550
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 3: downfield that he would like. But I mean, maybe it's

551
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 3: issue and but or maybe it was an issue two weeks.

552
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that it's an issue. I think the

553
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 3: Packers are like maybe a slightly better than average NFL offense,

554
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: which is better than the points per game suggests at

555
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: this point.

556
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 1: All right, well let's get into talking about some of

557
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 1: the market. You know, I'm looking at our betting pros

558
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: odds page right now, and.

559
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 2: You know I didn't have it on the outline.

560
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: But you just talked about green Bay there, and that's

561
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: an interesting line to me.

562
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 2: Right.

563
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: So in the look ahead, it was three and a half,

564
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: and we see the Lions this weekend, we see the Packers,

565
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 1: and it opens at three and a half as if

566
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: like the bookmakers like, they set the line at three

567
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 1: and a half, expecting to move one direction or the

568
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: other when they reopened on Sunday, and instead they were

569
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 1: just like, you know what, we're just sticking with it.

570
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: Three and a half market, you tell us what to do,

571
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: and this morning it was at three, and now across

572
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: the board it is back to three and a half.

573
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 1: What what are your thoughts on on this line here

574
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 1: and the movement that we've seen.

575
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I've bet Green Bay minus three this morning,

576
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,719
Speaker 3: so I'm pretty pleased that it got all three already. Yeah,

577
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 3: you know, I mean the line straight away TJ. Howkinson,

578
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 3: which I which is probably their you know, second most

579
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 3: important weapon at the skill position. So I don't believe

580
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: in the Destroit Lions team. I'd like to living here

581
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 3: in Narbar, but I just I just don't. And and

582
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 3: particularly I don't think that defense and the secondary is

583
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 3: good and the packers aren't good, but they're better than

584
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 3: they see and and I think, having having gone pretty deep,

585
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 3: I believe that to be true. And I know their

586
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 3: fans don't think that, but they're they're not as bad

587
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 3: as I think they're being portrayed as right now. And

588
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 3: I have gotten in double for that because I really, man,

589
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 3: I mean, I really liked them against the Jets a

590
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago, which was the disaster, So but yeah,

591
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 3: I like them against the lines.

592
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 2: Yeah.

593
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: So I mentioned earlier the Colts is a team that

594
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: I've downgraded quite a bit in the power ratings, and

595
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 1: I'm looking at Colts at Patriots and in the off season.

596
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: Right You'll have sports books that put lines out way

597
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: in advance for all of the NFL games, and they

598
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: don't take a lot of money on those, so you know,

599
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 1: there's always a question as to how accurate, how predictive

600
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 1: are those numbers. At the same time, you have professional

601
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 1: bookmakers who are hanging these lines, and there are people

602
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: who are betting them, so there is some value there.

603
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: And so this line for the Colts at the Patriots

604
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: in the off season, this was a pick them.

605
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: On the look ahead. It was six.

606
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: The early line was six and a half, and now

607
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 1: it's been beat down to five and a half. So

608
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 1: you know, we've gone from pick them to six and

609
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: a half to five and a half. Here, I think,

610
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 1: you know, going towards the Colts. That feels like the

611
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: correct direction. At the same time, Sam Ellinger, you know,

612
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 1: we're talking about a sixth round quarterback who now has

613
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: one start to his name and a team that just

614
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 1: fired their offensive coordinator. So you know, I say, like

615
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 1: the number that I generate can say that the Colts

616
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: is the right side. At the same time, can I

617
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: see how they lose by twenty Like, yeah, I could

618
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: see how something like that happens. What are your thoughts

619
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: on this line here?

620
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, So when I'm on my model, I have New

621
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 3: England by about three. But obviously that considers the Colts

622
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 3: with what we expected Matt Ryan to do, and Matt

623
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 3: Ryan as the quarterback. That's clearly not the case. One

624
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 3: of the things that I try to do to distinguish

625
00:32:54,480 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 3: quarterbacks is to to look at the markets to see

626
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 3: how the markets have adjusted. And you can I mean,

627
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 3: I mean you actually look at all the closing spreads

628
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 3: and you count different quarterbacks differently, and you look at

629
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 3: how you adjust for who you've played with my algorithm,

630
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 3: and then you can kind of get an estimate for

631
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 3: how much worse a quarterback is. So you have to

632
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 3: make it an adjustment for Ellinger when and and this

633
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 3: is tough, right because the markets had one crack at

634
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 3: saying how good the Colts are with Ellinger. But with Ellinger,

635
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 3: with that one game, the market would my market model

636
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 3: would make New England about a five point favorite, which

637
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 3: is pretty consistent with what we're seeing in the market.

638
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 3: It seems about right to me. I mean, you know,

639
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:50,239
Speaker 3: Mac Jones comes back first full game, and I think

640
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 3: Matt Jones is good, so you know when he's when

641
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 3: he's gonna get some more games under his belt. You know,

642
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 3: for them to be five point favorite, they're on the road, right,

643
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 3: you know that I show that home.

644
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, Patriots at home.

645
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 3: I think five and a half. Six makes makes complete

646
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 3: sense here.

647
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have this at five point twenty five. I

648
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: grabbed it at six and a half. So I'm maybe

649
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 1: a little bit biased in my perception of Hey, I

650
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: think the Colts look great here. The line should keep

651
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: on moving towards the Colts. Yeah, okay, Bills at Jets.

652
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: I mean, oh man, this number, I mean, we will

653
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: see when it really starts to get some resistance here.

654
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 1: But in the off season this number was seven. It

655
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense. And the look ahead it's

656
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: ten and a half. It opens at twelve and a half.

657
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 1: And I am looking now at our odds page here

658
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 1: at bet MGM, this number is thirteen right now, you know,

659
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: I mean it could easily get to fourteen, Like, we

660
00:34:58,120 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 1: can see how it gets there.

661
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 2: Bills.

662
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: You know, they didn't cover on Sunday Night Football before that,

663
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: they were covering large spreads, and they were covering that

664
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 1: number for a large chunk of the game. The Jets

665
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 1: have lost some key players, you know, despite Zach Wilson's

666
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 1: you know, three hundred yard passing performance, he didn't look

667
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: all that good this past week. And no Bris Hall,

668
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: no Elijah Verry Tucker, who's the best run blocking offensive

669
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 1: lineman that they had. I think that Jets offense could

670
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: really struggle against a Bills defense that if it's not

671
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 1: the best in the league top three for sure. Where

672
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: do you see this line going? And what do you

673
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 1: think of the movement we've seen so far?

674
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean my number is Bills by about ten.

675
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 3: That's too low. Obviously. Part of the reason is that

676
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 3: I have the Jets in the top five in terms

677
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 3: of pass defense, which is too high. They've faced a

678
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 3: string of backup and rookie quarterbacks. So for example, when

679
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 3: they played Miami, they faced backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who

680
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 3: got hurt after I think a single pass attempt, and

681
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 3: Skylar Thompson played the rookie played the rest of that game.

682
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 3: So that's how we're evaluating, you know, the Jets. There,

683
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,479
Speaker 3: the Bills came into the season as a super Bowl

684
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:22,919
Speaker 3: favorite and they've they've done nothing but like a super

685
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 3: Bowl favorite. So, you know, you mentioned their defense. Yeah,

686
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 3: I don't think their defense gets enough credit at all.

687
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 3: They're probably missing their best best, their second best player

688
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 3: in Tredavious White, the cornerback. They've looked awesome, and so yeah,

689
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm I'm not you know, in the in

690
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 3: the you know, the the Bills also seem to have

691
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:43,399
Speaker 3: this sense about them that they try to go out

692
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 3: and they try to score a lot of points, and

693
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 3: so it seems like, you know, if you want, I mean,

694
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 3: I'm not betting the Bills here. I think the spread

695
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 3: is big enough that that would keep me away from it.

696
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 3: But it's a time type of team that that does

697
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 3: tend to cover these big spreads. You mentioned the injuries

698
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:03,479
Speaker 3: for the Jets. You know, at a couple of weeks ago,

699
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 3: the Breest Hall and Garrett Wilson I think had the

700
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 3: most targets on that team, like the two rookies, right,

701
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 3: and now one of them is hurt and they got

702
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 3: all kinds of other issues at receivers. I'm not sure

703
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:18,439
Speaker 3: Zak Wilson is all that good.

704
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 1: Some people might be sure that he is not good.

705
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: Some people might be strongly on the other side of that. Yeah.

706
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 3: Well but but then you know, then you have the

707
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 3: other people that, what have they won like five in

708
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 3: a row now or something like that or four and one?

709
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, won in their last five. Yeah.

710
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that that that's there, Zach Wilson statistic, right right.

711
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 3: The guy comes back and they're winning football games.

712
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 1: It's good to be a winner. I mean, it's better

713
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 1: than it's better than losing. It's better than sucking and losing.

714
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 3: Uh.

715
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 1: But yeah, he has not looked good. Another another game,

716
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts on Seahawks at Cardinals. Uh,

717
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: this to me is such an intriguing game here. So

718
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:08,320
Speaker 1: you know, in the in the off season, this number

719
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 1: was six and a half seven towards the Cardinals on

720
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: the look ahead market last Thursday it was three and

721
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 1: a half. And I gotta say, like, to me, that

722
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: was like an auto bet. That was just like a

723
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 1: snap a snap bet right there, because I just thought

724
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: regardless on on the on the Seahawks. Yeah, uh and

725
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 1: and so I just thought kind of almost regardless of

726
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 1: what happens, like I had my number, but I just

727
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 1: I felt, this is not going to be three and

728
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: a half like this, that number will not be available

729
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 1: get it now. And it opened on Sunday night at

730
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 1: two and a half pretty quickly went down to one

731
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,320
Speaker 1: and a half. And as we are talking right now,

732
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 1: that number is uh, it was one earlier and then

733
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 1: it's met some resistance and now it is bad to two.

734
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: So it looks like, you know, we've reached that like

735
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 1: market equilibrium point of where that number probably should be.

736
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 1: But what do you what do you think about this

737
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:11,919
Speaker 1: number here?

738
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean this is a game that I have.

739
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 3: I've made Arizona as about a three point favorite. I

740
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 3: would lean that way. They'd be get DeAndre Hopkins back recently.

741
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 3: And again we're looking at a small sample size, right,

742
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 3: So Seattle Gino Smith, he's been great. I'm looking at

743
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 3: my passing success rate and they're eleventh after I just

744
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 3: for opposition, I'm gonna I'm gonna say that's probably too high, right,

745
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 3: I mean, can he elevate this pass offense the league average? Yeah?

746
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 3: I think he can? I mean, should he be knocking

747
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 3: on the door of a top ten pass offense. I'm

748
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:50,320
Speaker 3: not convinced about that. So between these two things, I

749
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 3: would definitely lean towards towards Arizona here. Yeah, and that's

750
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 3: the way you have seen the market move today.

751
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: Yeah.

752
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 3: I love the Arizona minus one earlier today as well.

753
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it met resistance there. And so I have

754
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: this projected. You have it projected around minus three. I

755
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 1: have it projected around minus one. The market is it

756
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 1: minus two? You know that that seems about right, you know,

757
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 1: like all all seems right with the world there, Okay,

758
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 1: Titans at Chiefs. I don't know ed how how you

759
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 1: tend to feel about you know, like I should have

760
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 1: just grabbed this number. I didn't grab it, Like now

761
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 1: it's gone. And you know, you don't seem like the

762
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: kind of person who hates yourself about stuff like that.

763
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 1: But you know, there are times when I look at something,

764
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 1: I'm just like, oh, man, I should have I should

765
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 1: have grabbed that number. And this is one of those

766
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 1: instances where in the in the off season, looking at

767
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 1: Titans at Chiefs, this number was minus six with the

768
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 1: Chiefs favored and the look ahead market it was ten

769
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: and a half, the same as you know Buffalo. And

770
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,319
Speaker 1: with Buffalo, I had this sort of like thought of

771
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: there's no way, regardless of what happens, unless there's a

772
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 1: job Allen injury, there's no way this number gets down

773
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: to ten because it would just meet sudden resistance and

774
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:09,320
Speaker 1: a decent chance it moves in the opposite direction.

775
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: And that was right.

776
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,800
Speaker 1: I didn't have that same thought here with the Chiefs,

777
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: and I absolutely should have. So you know, it was

778
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 1: ten and a half in the look ahead market. It

779
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: opened at eleven. It is now twelve and a half

780
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 1: at most at most books here, and I mean, I

781
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 1: don't know, I could see it going to thirteen thirteen

782
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 1: and a half. Fourteen would still not surprise me. Although

783
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 1: like Mike Rabel is an underdog, that's not someone I

784
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,360
Speaker 1: tend to want to bet against when he's in that situation.

785
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: And you know, Malik Willis threw the ball just ten

786
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 1: times against Houston. Although I imagine that Ryan Tannehill will

787
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 1: come back for this game, and I'm imagining that has

788
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: to be baked into the number here. But this number

789
00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 1: has moved a lot. Yeah, go ahead, go what do

790
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:01,319
Speaker 1: you think it is?

791
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 3: I mean, this number getting that high suggests to me

792
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 3: that Tannehill might not play.

793
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 1: If Milake Willis is playing in this game, if he

794
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 1: is the starting quarterback in this game. Man, Like, I

795
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: think this number has to be like seventeen.

796
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, I mean it has to be high. And again,

797
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 3: like Tennessee was playing Houston last week, they were up,

798
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 3: and they asked the rookie to throw it ten times.

799
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,320
Speaker 3: He will have to throw it more than ten times

800
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 3: because it's very likely that they're going to be down

801
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 3: in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs. So yeah, seventeen,

802
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 3: I can't see it getting that high. But I hear

803
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 3: what you're saying, like, it's at least fourteen, if not more,

804
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 3: if if we find out that Willis is going to

805
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:51,959
Speaker 3: start this game.

806
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:56,479
Speaker 1: And so you think that there is within this line

807
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: that we see right now, maybe some uncertainty about who

808
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: is starting for the Titans this week.

809
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I mean I if Tanny Hill were playing,

810
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 3: I would make this eight and a half. I think

811
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 3: that seems a little bit low. You know, you're you're

812
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 3: gonna give the Kansas City a little bit of credit,

813
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 3: So I think, you know, Kansas City minus ten seems

814
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:17,320
Speaker 3: about right. If we knew that tanny Hill was playing.

815
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 3: So to me, this seems the market's hedging a little

816
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 3: bit and and the fact that Willis might be might

817
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 3: be in there. What was tanny Hill's injury? You like,

818
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 3: an ankle or something.

819
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 2: Ankle and then illness?

820
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 1: Okay, you know, so the illness at the end of

821
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 1: the week, it seemed like that was the thing that

822
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 1: was sort of like the nail and the coffin of like, Okay,

823
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 1: he's not playing this week, but you know, even though

824
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 1: he didn't practice on Wednesday and Thursday with the ankle injury,

825
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 1: it seemed like it seemed like he was trending towards playing,

826
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: like wasn't going to practice, but would gut it out

827
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: and play. So I think he probably plays this week,

828
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 1: but man, it will be in resting to see because

829
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 1: the Titans, they are they're one of those kind of

830
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 1: squirrely teams as underdogs to where like you never know,

831
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: like I mean, they they've upset They've upset the Chiefs

832
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 1: before you know, they've done it before.

833
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 2: Uh, all right.

834
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 3: They had a big upset of the Bills last year too.

835
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean they were the number one seed

836
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 1: last year for for reasons, you know, unbeknownst to to mankind,

837
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 1: but known to the gambling gods. Uh, they were you know,

838
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: they were the number one seed all right, Thursday night football.

839
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 1: This this game is unreal. Uh, We've got the Eagles

840
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 1: at the Texans and in the It's not like anyone

841
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 1: was respecting the Texans before the season started. But this

842
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 1: number was five and a half in the off season,

843
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 1: nine and a half on the look ahead number. And again,

844
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 1: this is just one of those situations where you're like,

845
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: I look at how much this number has moved, and

846
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 1: I'm like, you know what, I'm a little bit upset

847
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 1: with myself for not betting it when I when I

848
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 1: saw it, Like, hey, there's probably some opportunity here. At

849
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 1: the same time, I don't want to be the person

850
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 1: who's betting massive favorites, you know what I mean, Like,

851
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: I got to have some principles somewhere, and this is

852
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 1: the arbitrary line where I decide to have some principles.

853
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 1: But I mean nine and a half in the look

854
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 1: ahead market, thirteen in the early lines. I mean it's

855
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half in the market. Now, it feels

856
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 1: like there's a pretty good chance this number gets to fourteen,

857
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 1: you know, thirteen and a half. Actually, yeah, thirteen and

858
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:39,879
Speaker 1: a half at bet MGM fourteen right now in DraftKings

859
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 1: fourteen of points. Bet man, what are you doing with

860
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:48,400
Speaker 1: this game? Because I will say, I am showing, you know,

861
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 1: theoretical value on the Houston Texans here, and there is

862
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 1: no way I want to bet on them. If it

863
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: gets to fourteen, I might think about it. But in

864
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 1: terms of like the power rating, I have this projected

865
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:05,760
Speaker 1: at eleven and a half, and you know, in theory,

866
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 1: that's enough value to bet on the Texans. But you

867
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: get to a certain point in the season where teams

868
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 1: just start they start tanking. They start rotating players in

869
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 1: to give you know, backups a chance to see if

870
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 1: those guys can be contributors in the future. You know,

871
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 1: they start experimenting with different schemes just to see. It's

872
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:29,240
Speaker 1: like you start like the gap between the great teams

873
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 1: and the horrible teams starts to widen in the second

874
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: half of the season. And I think we are at

875
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 1: that point. And so although I'm seeing theoretical value on

876
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 1: the Texans, man, I just I don't know if I

877
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 1: have the fortitude to.

878
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:45,360
Speaker 2: Bet on them.

879
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 3: Absolutely yeah. I mean, I see again theoretical value on

880
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 3: the Texans, but I would I would not bet this.

881
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:55,799
Speaker 3: I mean, you can kind of make the case. You know,

882
00:46:55,840 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 3: Philadelphia has been great, Jalen Hurts has been good. You know,

883
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 3: their their league average and passing success rate adjusted for

884
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 3: opponent there their sixteenth. So what they are winning football

885
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,479
Speaker 3: games and Houston is not a good football team. They're

886
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 3: they're right near the bottom of the NFL again. You know,

887
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:19,720
Speaker 3: like I, I probably should run my college football model,

888
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 3: the one that's more aggressive, and to see where they

889
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 3: would put this line. I think it would it would

890
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:29,759
Speaker 3: definitely be in double digits. But I know that kind

891
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:33,840
Speaker 3: of model doesn't apply as much to the NFL. It

892
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,760
Speaker 3: you know, the NFL tends to be you know again,

893
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 3: you're I try not to follow momentum in the NFL.

894
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 3: You gotta break rule sometimes and this might be one

895
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:47,360
Speaker 3: of those cases. So it's it's a tough one. And

896
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 3: but who knows. I mean, maybe you know, the Thursday

897
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 3: night curse of no points will come and it'll be

898
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 3: hard to cover two touchdowns.

899
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 2: I mean that that is true.

900
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 1: If if there are a few points scored, it is

901
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: easier for the underdog you cover, especially when it's such

902
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:05,799
Speaker 1: a massive number. Where is where's the breaking point for you?

903
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,280
Speaker 1: So let's say it's thirteen and a half, now fourteen

904
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 1: at a couple of books out there, maybe you're not

905
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 1: grabbing it at fourteen. If it is fourteen and a half,

906
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 1: where you're like, okay, okay, fourteen and a half. Now

907
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 1: that I've got the like the hook upon the hook,

908
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 1: now I'm doing it.

909
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, right, because this is the better you have

910
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 3: to be able to bet any team at some number. Yeah,

911
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 3: I'll say fourteen and a half. Let's say fourteen, would say,

912
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 3: we'll see. I was gonna say fifteen. You talked me

913
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 3: into fourteen and a half though, all right.

914
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 1: Ed, thank you so much for for taking time to

915
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 1: talk Power Rake, give us one more plug on it

916
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:44,399
Speaker 1: and anything else you want to talk about.

917
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,399
Speaker 2: I know you've you've got a newsletter that you do.

918
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:49,840
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, I've been really proud of the newsletter. Started

919
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 3: doing something called seven Douget Saturday about a year ago,

920
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:56,760
Speaker 3: comes out Saturday. It's just, you know, small little tidbits,

921
00:48:56,760 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 3: whether they be bets or news injury report. Try to

922
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 3: put in a little humor there. I've been trying to

923
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 3: ramp it up a little bit this season, asking some

924
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 3: friends of mine that are pro sports betters for little

925
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:13,720
Speaker 3: tips in there as well. Some of them have agreed

926
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 3: to help me out with that, So it's something that

927
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 3: I've been proud to do. It's like a curation of

928
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 3: other things out there, and I think there's a wide

929
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 3: variety of things that try to this time of year.

930
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 3: Try to put some NBA stuff in there. We'll try

931
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 3: to include some baseball when the time is appropriate. So yeah,

932
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:32,399
Speaker 3: just part of my email newsletter. I also talk about

933
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,399
Speaker 3: games that I bet and the reasons why in terms

934
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:36,919
Speaker 3: of my metrics, so you can check that out at

935
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 3: the powerank dot com.

936
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 1: All right, ed, awesome, thanks for joining the show that

937
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 1: is going to do it. For the Week nine edition

938
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:50,280
Speaker 1: of the Power Ratings in Market Movement episode, I'm Matt Friedman.

939
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 1: Everyone have a great day.

940
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 3: Es