1
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:05,920
Speaker 1: Welcome to Stuff to Blow your Mind from how Stuff

2
00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:14,239
Speaker 1: Works dot com. Hey you, welcome to Stuff to Blow

3
00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:18,200
Speaker 1: your Mind. My name is Robert lamp and I'm Christian Sager. Robert,

4
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,279
Speaker 1: you and I both grew up in the eighties. How

5
00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:25,840
Speaker 1: worried were you about nuclear annihilation as a kid? Because

6
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,520
Speaker 1: I was terrified of it. It was like constantly being

7
00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,199
Speaker 1: talked about on the news or in popular culture. It's

8
00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,559
Speaker 1: an interesting question because, you know, I look back on

9
00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:39,879
Speaker 1: it and I remember I think back on threats that

10
00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,640
Speaker 1: were present in the media or in the conversations of

11
00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:46,360
Speaker 1: adults and how they influenced me. Like I remember, I

12
00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:50,280
Speaker 1: remember going to church and being in hearing about the

13
00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:54,400
Speaker 1: becoming battle of Armageddon and how everyone's gonna have to

14
00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:56,600
Speaker 1: fight on one side or the other. I remember being

15
00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:00,280
Speaker 1: concerned about that. I remember picking up on some of

16
00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:04,600
Speaker 1: the the the Aid's Scare material and thinking like, oh,

17
00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,800
Speaker 1: how does this affect me? How does this affect the

18
00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:12,480
Speaker 1: people I care about. I don't remember being feeling like

19
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:17,319
Speaker 1: the anxiety of nuclear war so much, and maybe I

20
00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,240
Speaker 1: was just you know, part of this. Part of this

21
00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,800
Speaker 1: was a time when I was I was living outside

22
00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:24,960
Speaker 1: of the US, I was in Canada, we only had

23
00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,240
Speaker 1: the one TV TV channel, so that might have played

24
00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 1: a role. Or maybe I was just you know, removed

25
00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:35,400
Speaker 1: enough from the or distracted enough from the the nightly

26
00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:38,959
Speaker 1: you know, TV news that it didn't affect me, or

27
00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,920
Speaker 1: maybe it's an I mean, we're about the same age though,

28
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,160
Speaker 1: so I don't know how to what extent that played

29
00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,360
Speaker 1: into In the past, I've kind of wondered, well, maybe

30
00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,800
Speaker 1: I was just a little too young, Like I didn't

31
00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,880
Speaker 1: to to to use the language of Queen. I didn't

32
00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,520
Speaker 1: quite grow up in the shadow of the mushroom cloud.

33
00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,840
Speaker 1: You know. That's interesting. Yeah, yeah, well, and I also,

34
00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,400
Speaker 1: you know, moved around overseas a little bit too, so

35
00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,520
Speaker 1: that could have contributed to it in different ways as well.

36
00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 1: But I definitely remember the eighties being like scary and

37
00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,400
Speaker 1: then like, you know, maybe it was also just because

38
00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,440
Speaker 1: of my age, but then in the nineties it was like, oh,

39
00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,200
Speaker 1: things are okay now, like that there's not as much

40
00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,919
Speaker 1: of a threat. We can all breathe easy, We're not

41
00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:19,880
Speaker 1: going to have to like we don't have to do

42
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,160
Speaker 1: the whole stop, drop and roll thing in the cross rooms, right.

43
00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:26,320
Speaker 1: I definitely looking back, I definitely see that trend where

44
00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,799
Speaker 1: there is the nineties, there was this feeling of, yeah,

45
00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:30,880
Speaker 1: this is not that big of a threat anymore, maybe

46
00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:32,520
Speaker 1: it's even not a threat. Don't worry about it, just

47
00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,480
Speaker 1: do your thing. But I've always been a fan of

48
00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 1: stuff from the eighties in the late seventies, from you know,

49
00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:43,480
Speaker 1: the fiction, the music, in the literature, and you certainly

50
00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:48,800
Speaker 1: see nuclear anxiety displayed in in that in various ways.

51
00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:53,120
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, I mean we've got, of course Terminator

52
00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,919
Speaker 1: to Judgment Day. I mean, they are of course talking

53
00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,640
Speaker 1: about an artificial intelligence bringing about the apoco Ellipse, but

54
00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:05,040
Speaker 1: it's through nuclear warfare. Uh. And then the big one

55
00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,520
Speaker 1: that I always think of is Watchmen, especially when I

56
00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:10,400
Speaker 1: think of what we're going to talk about today, which

57
00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,880
Speaker 1: is the doomsday clock. Now I don't believe this was

58
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,280
Speaker 1: featured in the movie version of Watchmen, but in the

59
00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:20,520
Speaker 1: comic book version, every issue began with the doomsday clock

60
00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,839
Speaker 1: blood dripping down the page further and further, and as

61
00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:27,760
Speaker 1: you got to the twelfth issue, I think the blood

62
00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,760
Speaker 1: was covering the clock like all the way or something

63
00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,359
Speaker 1: like that. But the idea was that the reason why

64
00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,640
Speaker 1: these events were happening in the story is because we're

65
00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 1: inching closer to midnight on the doomsday clock. Yeah. I

66
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,280
Speaker 1: you know, maybe when I first read Watchman, I wasn't

67
00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,120
Speaker 1: for some reason, I never really put one and two

68
00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,080
Speaker 1: together on the doomsday clock. But yeah, I believe that

69
00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,560
Speaker 1: there's like a kind of synchronicity of the metaphor there

70
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:54,120
Speaker 1: with Dr Manhattan being connected to atomic energy. He's also

71
00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:58,400
Speaker 1: a watchmaker, and he's obsessed with time and taking apart

72
00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:01,720
Speaker 1: clocks and putting them back together again, and then the

73
00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,280
Speaker 1: background metaphor of the doomsday clock. Now here's the thing.

74
00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,119
Speaker 1: I didn't know the doomsday clock was a real thing

75
00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:13,200
Speaker 1: until I was an adult, and actually just recently it

76
00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,960
Speaker 1: was updated. Now, we shared this on our social media

77
00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:18,920
Speaker 1: for stuff to blow your mind, and there was a

78
00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:22,479
Speaker 1: lot of comments about it, uh so much so that

79
00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,840
Speaker 1: we thought this is probably worth digging into because there's

80
00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,359
Speaker 1: a lot of science behind the Doomsday clock and the

81
00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,280
Speaker 1: group that manages it, which is called the Bulletin of

82
00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:35,280
Speaker 1: Atomic Scientists. So we figured, let's do a dive into that,

83
00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,760
Speaker 1: explain what that is and see what's going on there. Yeah,

84
00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,520
Speaker 1: because I feel like there is a lot of confusion,

85
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:43,520
Speaker 1: especially and I don't mean I don't. I don't mean

86
00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 1: to vilify people who say didn't read the link, it

87
00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:48,400
Speaker 1: didn't fall with the link and read the article that

88
00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,800
Speaker 1: we shared, because I think we all have to do this.

89
00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:54,039
Speaker 1: Where it was so many different pieces of media and

90
00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,120
Speaker 1: our streams, you just can't click on everything. I don't

91
00:04:56,200 --> 00:05:00,440
Speaker 1: understand that. But it's easy without without diving in to it,

92
00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,400
Speaker 1: it's easy to mistake what the doomsday clock is. On

93
00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:05,080
Speaker 1: one hand, you might think, oh, well, this is a

94
00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:09,679
Speaker 1: this is a rigorous scientific like um, you know, FIRMI

95
00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,400
Speaker 1: kind of a contemplation on what the chances of nuclear

96
00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,120
Speaker 1: war are. Or you may think, oh, this is just

97
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:20,880
Speaker 1: complete political bs. This is just somebody or some group

98
00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:25,600
Speaker 1: of people just making some with with political motivation, deciding

99
00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:28,960
Speaker 1: how dangerous the current climate is. And the answer is

100
00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,640
Speaker 1: it's somewhere in the middle. Uh. And but it's worth

101
00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,720
Speaker 1: taking a look at because while yes, it so, let's

102
00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,120
Speaker 1: make this very clear right from the top, the doomsday

103
00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,200
Speaker 1: clock is not managed by any kind of like supercomputer

104
00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,919
Speaker 1: or device that's calculating things and figuring out what the

105
00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,440
Speaker 1: exact time on the clock should ye do not confuse

106
00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,719
Speaker 1: it with an actual atomic clock, which is a you

107
00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:56,200
Speaker 1: know a highly precise um time measurement system. This is

108
00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,880
Speaker 1: and this is something where a human hand is essentially

109
00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,560
Speaker 1: going to reach up and change time exactly. And it's

110
00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:05,120
Speaker 1: fairly subjective. But at the same time, the people who

111
00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:09,280
Speaker 1: are in charge of making that subjective judgment call are

112
00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:11,720
Speaker 1: experts in their field. And we're gonna go over all

113
00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:15,000
Speaker 1: of that. We'll talk about it, we'll talk about the group,

114
00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,920
Speaker 1: the journal surrounding this, the doomsday clock itself, and then

115
00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,600
Speaker 1: we're gonna look at some arguments both four and against it.

116
00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:25,039
Speaker 1: Uh So, just to back up here in case you

117
00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,799
Speaker 1: missed it, at the beginning of the bulletin of atomic

118
00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:33,160
Speaker 1: scientists calculated that we're even closer to doomsday and they

119
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:37,239
Speaker 1: adjusted the doomsday clock to two point five minutes to midnight.

120
00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:41,560
Speaker 1: Midnight being doomsday, meaning the human population will be completely

121
00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:46,680
Speaker 1: wiped out by something usually nuclear annihilation. Uh And by

122
00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:50,159
Speaker 1: their prediction, we're that much closer to the end of humanity.

123
00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,440
Speaker 1: This is the closest the clock has been to doomsday

124
00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,800
Speaker 1: since nineteen fifty three, after the US tested its first

125
00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:03,080
Speaker 1: thermonuclear device. Now, why why, why why did they push

126
00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,239
Speaker 1: it forward? Well, certainly, if you've if you've been following

127
00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,000
Speaker 1: the news enough to pick up on the doomsday story,

128
00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,360
Speaker 1: then you've probably been following the news enough to pick

129
00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:11,880
Speaker 1: up on all these various other stories. We can basically

130
00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:14,360
Speaker 1: reduce a lot of it to sort of to saber rattling,

131
00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:19,880
Speaker 1: to the testing of new regimes, to new regimes, uh,

132
00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:24,360
Speaker 1: you know, rolling out their stance on the issues of

133
00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:30,280
Speaker 1: of nuclear armaments, uh, warfare in general, and international relations. Right. Yeah,

134
00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,840
Speaker 1: so you know this is going to get a little

135
00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:37,200
Speaker 1: bit political here only for the purposes of us describing

136
00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,320
Speaker 1: why they made this decision. So they cited specifically that

137
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,320
Speaker 1: the global security landscape darkened. This is a direct quote,

138
00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:49,600
Speaker 1: as the international community failed to come effectively to grips

139
00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:54,520
Speaker 1: with humanity's most pressing existential threats, and by that they

140
00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:59,520
Speaker 1: mean nuclear weapons and climate change. Now, this was announced

141
00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,360
Speaker 1: in an op ed to the New York Times. There

142
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,920
Speaker 1: are two people, theoretical physicist Lawrence M. Krauss and retired

143
00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:11,760
Speaker 1: Navy Rear Admiral David Titley, And they wrote on behalf

144
00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,960
Speaker 1: of the Bulletin of of Atomic Scientists, and this was

145
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,320
Speaker 1: their quote. They said, making matters worse, the United States

146
00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,680
Speaker 1: now has a president who has promised to impede progress

147
00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:25,240
Speaker 1: on both of those fronts. Never before has the Bulletin

148
00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:29,360
Speaker 1: decided to advance the clock, largely because of the statements

149
00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,679
Speaker 1: of a single person. But when that person is the

150
00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:37,319
Speaker 1: new President of the United States, his words matter. Now. Specifically,

151
00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,760
Speaker 1: I believe they're referring to some comments that that the

152
00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,880
Speaker 1: President has made regarding the arms race. I think he

153
00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:46,440
Speaker 1: said something to the fact of let there be an

154
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,280
Speaker 1: arms race or you know, will outproduce uh, you know,

155
00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:57,199
Speaker 1: the competition in terms of nuclear armaments and if the

156
00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,360
Speaker 1: if you've been following the news, you know that the

157
00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,880
Speaker 1: president will say one thing and then he may restate

158
00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:09,439
Speaker 1: it later. Yeah, but this response was was coming to

159
00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,560
Speaker 1: some of the spikes in the rhetoric. Yeah. And this

160
00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,400
Speaker 1: is stuff that he said on the campaign trail before

161
00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,679
Speaker 1: he was elected too, So you know, there's a there's

162
00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,960
Speaker 1: a well documented record of his policy or at least

163
00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:25,440
Speaker 1: stated policies on nuclear armament and on climate change. So

164
00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,480
Speaker 1: these are things that concerned the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Uh.

165
00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,000
Speaker 1: And you know, even since they made this announcement, he's

166
00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,360
Speaker 1: continued to say things for this effect. Um. Now, I

167
00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:39,000
Speaker 1: would be remiss if I did not mention the Iron

168
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,360
Speaker 1: Maidens song two minutes to Midnight, because I believe, looking

169
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,200
Speaker 1: back at the time, wine two minutes is the is

170
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,280
Speaker 1: as close as we've come. It is, Yeah, and we

171
00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:50,760
Speaker 1: are currently two and a half minutes to midnight now.

172
00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,000
Speaker 1: I there was a listener out there who pointed this

173
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,400
Speaker 1: out to me. Actually, when we posted the original story,

174
00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,480
Speaker 1: he shared the video for Iron Maidens two Minutes to

175
00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,560
Speaker 1: been Night, and oh of course, And man, this is

176
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,480
Speaker 1: one of those instances where I wish we could get

177
00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:06,520
Speaker 1: away with playing music on the show because that song

178
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,320
Speaker 1: is pretty great and it's perfect as like a as

179
00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:11,720
Speaker 1: a theme song for this episode. But go check it

180
00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:15,400
Speaker 1: out if you're unfamiliar with it and you love metal. Uh.

181
00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,280
Speaker 1: And there's all kinds of other popular culture things that

182
00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:22,720
Speaker 1: would resonate with this. Uh. One of my favorite songs

183
00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,400
Speaker 1: that isn't necessarily a big one is the SKA band

184
00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,360
Speaker 1: Mephis Scopolise has a song called Doomsday that is about

185
00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,079
Speaker 1: this as well. Oh yeah, I'm not familiar with the

186
00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:40,560
Speaker 1: Mephis scoff. Uh. They're silly nineteen nineties ska band. Okay, yeah, well,

187
00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:43,520
Speaker 1: you know I already mentioned that. You know that I'm

188
00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:45,480
Speaker 1: a big fan of so many things that came out

189
00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,760
Speaker 1: of the late seventies and nineteen eighties, early nineties as well.

190
00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,200
Speaker 1: But but some of the big ones that of course

191
00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:53,160
Speaker 1: come to I think come to people's mind in addition

192
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,560
Speaker 1: to all the post nuke fiction out there. War Games,

193
00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:00,719
Speaker 1: of course, Yeah, that's the classic example. Well, the only

194
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,600
Speaker 1: way to win the game is not to play. See

195
00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,840
Speaker 1: this is why I think it was it had such

196
00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:06,960
Speaker 1: so much impact on me. War Games is the first

197
00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:11,559
Speaker 1: movie I ever saw on videotape really, yeah, Beta Max.

198
00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,599
Speaker 1: My parents rented a Beta Max machine when I was

199
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,640
Speaker 1: a little kid. In the two movies they got for

200
00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,840
Speaker 1: me were War Games and Star Wars, both movies with

201
00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,400
Speaker 1: war in the title. But I think with war games

202
00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,160
Speaker 1: like this probably didn't have that big an impact on

203
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,480
Speaker 1: me personally, because I don't think I ever I may

204
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:30,840
Speaker 1: have never seen it in its entirety. I think it's

205
00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,080
Speaker 1: all of those films that I just later saw parts

206
00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,520
Speaker 1: of on TV and got the general you know, just

207
00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,400
Speaker 1: of it. But but it never had the opportunity to

208
00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,439
Speaker 1: really get its hooks into me like it did for

209
00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,000
Speaker 1: for other people. Yeah. I mean, as I've said on

210
00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 1: the show before, I watched a lot of stuff when

211
00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:47,680
Speaker 1: I was five years old that I probably shouldn't have.

212
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,400
Speaker 1: This was one of the three that was right when

213
00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:52,959
Speaker 1: I was five years old, I saw war games. I

214
00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,440
Speaker 1: also watched The Shining when I was five years old.

215
00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,040
Speaker 1: Uh so, you know, well that explains a lot. Well,

216
00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:00,920
Speaker 1: you know, I think we were games. I think makes

217
00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,840
Speaker 1: sense for for some younger viewers. But we in a

218
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,840
Speaker 1: previous episode, the Butter episode, we talked about the Butter

219
00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:12,360
Speaker 1: Battle Book, Pursus Book and subsequent Turner TV special that

220
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,200
Speaker 1: deals with the arms race and deals with the idea

221
00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,600
Speaker 1: of mutually sure destruction. So really, no matter what your

222
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,040
Speaker 1: age was during during this era, there was the potential

223
00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:27,560
Speaker 1: to be introduced to the larger cultural anxiety regarding this. Yeah,

224
00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,960
Speaker 1: it was a period that was rife with popular culture

225
00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,920
Speaker 1: surrounded by this. And now that we're inching closer to

226
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,080
Speaker 1: midnight on the doomsday clock, I kind of wonder if

227
00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,120
Speaker 1: we're going to see more stuff like this again. Uh,

228
00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,720
Speaker 1: time will tell. Now you're probably wondering who are the

229
00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,960
Speaker 1: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists or what is this thing? Well,

230
00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,040
Speaker 1: the Bulletin was actually founded by some of the people

231
00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,520
Speaker 1: who worked on the Manhattan Project. These were people who

232
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,960
Speaker 1: felt that they could not remain aloof to the consequences

233
00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,280
Speaker 1: of their work creating atomic weapons. Uh. And they were

234
00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,720
Speaker 1: the people who the atomic bomb, but then they also

235
00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:07,520
Speaker 1: lobbied for its abolition. Now today it's a nonprofit organization

236
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,720
Speaker 1: and it has an international board of experts who assess

237
00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:15,040
Speaker 1: scientific advancements, then the benefits and risks that they give

238
00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:19,680
Speaker 1: to humanity. Now, their stated goal is to influence public policy.

239
00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,480
Speaker 1: So let's be very clear here, Like they state, and

240
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:27,000
Speaker 1: they say very plainly on all their literature, like, yes,

241
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:32,320
Speaker 1: this is our goal is to communicate and to change policy. Uh.

242
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,360
Speaker 1: They describe the bulletin as such. They say, it's like

243
00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:41,640
Speaker 1: a doctor making a diagnosis by looking at data, considering symptoms, measurements,

244
00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:45,160
Speaker 1: and circumstances, and then coming up with a judgment on

245
00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:48,680
Speaker 1: how to treat a condition. And I do have to

246
00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,200
Speaker 1: throw in here that I I don't think anyone out

247
00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:56,600
Speaker 1: there saying in the world is arguing that nuclear war

248
00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 1: is a desired outcome or you know, even you know,

249
00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,800
Speaker 1: we've mentioned in the comments that the President has made

250
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:07,720
Speaker 1: and when pressed on the matter, he has said, oh, well,

251
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons are horrible. You know that this is this

252
00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,720
Speaker 1: is you know, bad, not good. That he very specifically

253
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,840
Speaker 1: uses the term these are bad things. So I don't

254
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,600
Speaker 1: think anybody is arguing that that, yeah, let's have a

255
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,880
Speaker 1: nuclear war. That sounds like a great idea. The the

256
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:25,120
Speaker 1: arguments come into the balance, and then how do you

257
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:30,960
Speaker 1: reduce etcetera, and then into the political, uh, situations that

258
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,400
Speaker 1: increase the likelihood of one of these weapons being used,

259
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,880
Speaker 1: because really, we've we've we've been very lucky in the

260
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,120
Speaker 1: in the in the regard that there have only been uh,

261
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:46,280
Speaker 1: you know too military uses of nuclear weapons, and of

262
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,760
Speaker 1: course they were both both deployed by the United States

263
00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:53,440
Speaker 1: the close of the Second World War in Japan. Uh.

264
00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:55,960
Speaker 1: Outside of that, we've had, you know, plenty of tests.

265
00:14:56,360 --> 00:15:01,240
Speaker 1: We have had some testy situations regarding the are their

266
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:03,680
Speaker 1: their positioning, and their potential use, but we have not

267
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:07,600
Speaker 1: had to suffer any any subsequent users, and we haven't

268
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,120
Speaker 1: had to see actual nuclear warfare between or any war

269
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:16,080
Speaker 1: warfare between two nuclear arm nations. Right. Yeah. The idea

270
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 1: here being that the build the up of these armaments

271
00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:24,880
Speaker 1: will be a deterrent to various powers to to either

272
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,360
Speaker 1: either in the course of their militaristic actions or in

273
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 1: their own armament of nuclear weapons. Right, and it's not

274
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 1: just the United States and Russia anymore. And we'll get

275
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,520
Speaker 1: into that. There's all kinds of factors that come into play. UH.

276
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,960
Speaker 1: Now The Bulletin is also an award winning journal, and

277
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,840
Speaker 1: it puts issues and events into context UH and provides

278
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:48,840
Speaker 1: fact based debates and assessments about you know that, basically

279
00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 1: the end of humanity UH. And they have been around

280
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,920
Speaker 1: for seventy years. There's lots of other reports and analysis

281
00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 1: on their site. Their site is is pretty fantastic in

282
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,120
Speaker 1: terms of like layout and all the contents available. UH.

283
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:04,920
Speaker 1: Infographics to their infographics are really good. UM. But there's

284
00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 1: also a bi monthly magazine. Now today we're talking about

285
00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 1: in terms of like the people who make the decision

286
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,080
Speaker 1: about the doomsday clock. We're talking about ten to twenty

287
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,400
Speaker 1: people who literally sit in a room for a day

288
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,720
Speaker 1: and do the best they can to communicate disaster to

289
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,640
Speaker 1: the rest of us. Now, it's it's either once or

290
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,040
Speaker 1: twice a year, the board's members get together and they

291
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,560
Speaker 1: gather for a one day discussion where they review what

292
00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,840
Speaker 1: worried them the following year and what they anticipate as

293
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 1: new concerns. They don't use devices or computers to calculate this.

294
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 1: This is just experienced, expert adults trying to come to

295
00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:47,040
Speaker 1: a consensus. There's no algorithm that is deployed here exactly.

296
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,800
Speaker 1: So you may be wondering, well, who are these people,

297
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,240
Speaker 1: what are they so expert at? And that this is

298
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:55,560
Speaker 1: you know, maybe going to be a little dry. But

299
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,600
Speaker 1: I want to go through the list of the current

300
00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,600
Speaker 1: people so you have an idea of who who's making

301
00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:04,280
Speaker 1: this decision now. The current membership of the board. It

302
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 1: is the Science and Security Board for the Bulletin of

303
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 1: Atomic Scientists UH, and they're said to also consult widely

304
00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 1: with their colleagues across a wide variety of disciplines before

305
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,040
Speaker 1: they get together to make decisions about the doomsday clock.

306
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 1: So let's go through these here. Okay, So the first

307
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,800
Speaker 1: is Lynn Eden, she's one of the co chairs UH

308
00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,560
Speaker 1: and she's a research scholar at Stanford University who studies

309
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 1: military and society, science, technology and organizations, as well as

310
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:38,880
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons history and policy. Of Next, we have Robert Rosner,

311
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,640
Speaker 1: co chair, Professor of of of Astronomy, Astrophysics and Physics

312
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,879
Speaker 1: at the University of Chicago. There's rod Ewing he's a

313
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 1: professor of Nuclear Security and Earth Sciences at Stanford University.

314
00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:55,680
Speaker 1: Then there's a Steven kartha senior scientist at Stockholm Environmental Institute.

315
00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 1: Focuses on technological and policy options for addressing climate change.

316
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 1: Their herb Lynn uh this is a senior research scholar

317
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,880
Speaker 1: for cyber policy and security at Stanford University. You're seeing

318
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,040
Speaker 1: a trend here. There's a lot of people from Stanford there.

319
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,119
Speaker 1: Next is a Suzette McKinney, former Deputy Commissioner of the

320
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,879
Speaker 1: Bureau of Public Health Preparedness and Emergency Response at the

321
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,280
Speaker 1: Chicago Department of Public Health. She's an expert in emergency

322
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:25,879
Speaker 1: preparedness efforts. Steve Miller is the director of the International

323
00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 1: Security Program at Harvard University. Now, next we have Raymond T.

324
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 1: Peter Humbert. This is professor of physics at the University

325
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 1: of Oxford. Specializes in how climate works. Rama murte Raja Rahman.

326
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:46,360
Speaker 1: He's a professor of physics at Joel Harlal Nehru University.

327
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 1: Next we have Jennifer Sims. She's senior fellow at the

328
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,320
Speaker 1: Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a consultant on intelligence

329
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:57,720
Speaker 1: at Homeland security. Susan Solomon is a professor of environmental

330
00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,199
Speaker 1: studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Techno Oology. She's actually

331
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 1: one of the pioneers in the work that explains why

332
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 1: there's a hole in the Antarctic ozone layer, and she

333
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:11,719
Speaker 1: specifically specializes in climate science. Next, we have Richard Somerville,

334
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,679
Speaker 1: Professor of oceanography at the University of California, and his

335
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 1: focus his climate systems. Sharon Squassani. She's the director of

336
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 1: the Proliferation Prevention Program at the Center for Strategic and

337
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 1: International Studies at Washington d C. She specializes in nuclear

338
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 1: non proliferation, arms control, and security policy. And then we

339
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 1: have David Titley, Professor of Meteorology and International Affairs at

340
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania State University, a former naval officer with the rank

341
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 1: of your admiral who used to work in the Pentagon. Okay,

342
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 1: so we've gone through that list. That is clearly a

343
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 1: list of people who have a lot of credentials under

344
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:51,719
Speaker 1: their belt. Right It's it does not seem like a

345
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 1: list of I mean, I think we've got like a

346
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 1: little of her ten people. There's probably twelve or thirteen

347
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 1: of them here. They're not just whimsically going to say

348
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: something like we're two minutes away from the world ending. Right,

349
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 1: it seems like, uh, yeah, maybe they have rhetorical agendas,

350
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 1: but they are all experts in fields like uh, nuclear

351
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 1: non proliferation, military, uh, climate change, and and a growing

352
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 1: thing that they're looking at his cyber security. Right. And

353
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 1: then yeah, there's not a single celebrity or or you know,

354
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 1: isn't on the doomsday clok committee. Okay, let's take a

355
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 1: break and when we get back, let's really dive into

356
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 1: what the doomsday clock actually is. All right, we're back.

357
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 1: So everyone has probably seen a picture of the doomsday

358
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 1: clock thus far, if nothing else, it should be the

359
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 1: lead art for this episode on the website Stuff to

360
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 1: your Mind dot com. But but beyond that, beyond just

361
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 1: what it looks like, what is the doomsday clock? Okay?

362
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 1: So it was originally funded by, as I mentioned before,

363
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 1: people who were involved with the Manhattan Project, and one

364
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 1: of the Bulletin's members was a nuclear physicist named Alexander

365
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 1: Langsdorff and his wife, Martl. She was an artist, and

366
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 1: when they were coming up with this journal for the

367
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 1: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, she created a clock symbol, and

368
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 1: she said it to eleven fifty three for the cover

369
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 1: of the group's magazine. Now, she did this, she said,

370
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: because quote, it looked good to her eye. So there

371
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 1: was no there was no reasoning behind why it was

372
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 1: at eleven fifty three on the very first issue, which

373
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 1: just more like, yeah, this, this feels about right exactly

374
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 1: in nineteen nine, however, her husband reset it four minutes later.

375
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 1: Since then, this group has been around for seventy years

376
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 1: and they've used the clock to draw attention to worldwide

377
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: crises that they believe threatened the survival of the human species.

378
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 1: And their focus is almost entirely on the availability of

379
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons and the world powers that are willing to

380
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,919
Speaker 1: use them. So they kind of they describe it as

381
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 1: such as they say, it's a symbol obviously, but it's

382
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:12,160
Speaker 1: a symbolic intersection of art and science, and its goal

383
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 1: is to get people to talk more about nuclear weapons. Basically,

384
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,400
Speaker 1: you know, I think I think it's easy to say

385
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 1: this now, like especially since like what we were saying

386
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 1: with the nineties, it kind of was like, oh, the

387
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: Cold War is over. Who I don't have to worry

388
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,439
Speaker 1: about that? Being a think the clock itself went to

389
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:32,199
Speaker 1: something like seventeen minutes. Yeah. Yeah, nineteen one was the

390
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,919
Speaker 1: most optimistic position it ever was at, and it was

391
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: seventeen minutes to midnight. Uh. Now the clock itself is

392
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 1: wavered between that seventeen minutes and two minutes. Uh. Since

393
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 1: its inception in seven The time itself, like we described,

394
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 1: as determined by this board of scientists and nuclear experts

395
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: who meet regularly. But ultimately, yes, this is a political

396
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: tool for communication. But here's the thing. It works. The

397
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: last few times they've announced a change of the clock,

398
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: it has been not only international news and that it's made,

399
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: you know, headlines and every major news outlet, but it

400
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 1: is also trended on Facebook and Twitter, so people talk

401
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 1: about it. It works. It gets people to think about

402
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: what's going on with nuclear weapons. Now the hand itself

403
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,719
Speaker 1: has been reset twenty two times. It used to be

404
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 1: that the bulletins editor decided when the hand should be moved.

405
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 1: And his name was Eugene Rabinovich and he was a scientist.

406
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: But when he died in nineteen seventy three, that Science

407
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: and Security board that Robert and I just went through

408
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 1: with you, they took over, and like I said, they

409
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: meet twice a year to discuss world events relating to

410
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 1: the clock, and the last time it was moved before

411
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 1: this most recent one was in uh. Two minutes were

412
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:54,199
Speaker 1: taken away to express the bulletin's dissatisfaction with world progress

413
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: on climate change and nuclear weapons. So they have four

414
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 1: criteria that they currently used to determine the status of

415
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 1: the clock. The first is obviously the possibility of major

416
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 1: conflict between nuclear states. Then there is and this is

417
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 1: relatively new, out of control climate change. The third is

418
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: risks of civilian nuclear powered disaster, especially when it relates

419
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: to waste storage. Okay, this this tying in of course

420
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 1: to accidents such as that at Chernobyl and Three Mile Island.

421
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 1: Yeah exactly, yeah uh. And then the fourth and final

422
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: one is they're looking at emerging technologies like genetically modified

423
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 1: pandemics or destructive artificial intelligence. So ultimately their focus here

424
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 1: is about any kind of species wide catastrophe, no matter

425
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 1: what its origin might be. Now in their site, they

426
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: have this thing that's called the doomsday dashboard that I

427
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: have to say, like, I think that there's like a

428
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: certain amount of cheekiness to this too, write like maybe

429
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,120
Speaker 1: that's just me, but I like the idea of like

430
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: the doomsday dashboard. You know, it's just kind of it

431
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 1: feels jokey, but at the same time as obviously the

432
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 1: most serious you can be about a possible topic. Right,

433
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're simplifying all of this into this

434
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: one simple and in doing doing that, there you know,

435
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: there's the value of some of simplistic and direct communication

436
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,159
Speaker 1: via symbolism. But in doing so, I mean they are

437
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 1: realizing that they're boiling it down. Yeah. So this dashboard

438
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 1: is a little different from the clock and that it

439
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 1: accounts for the amount of global nuclear weapons, the security

440
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 1: of nuclear materials around the world, the amount of nuclear

441
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 1: materials that are stored, the rise in the sea level

442
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: and the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, as well as

443
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,399
Speaker 1: the difference in global temperatures in the minimum amount of

444
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 1: Arctic sea ice that we currently have. So it's this

445
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 1: big interface that shows you all those things, basically keeping

446
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: track of all of the modern woes, especially that came

447
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 1: out of indoors box, right and kind of and and

448
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 1: cared for or at least of, you know, by an

449
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 1: organization that it will at least founded by individuals who

450
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 1: played and arguably played a role. So the thing here

451
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: basically is they study events and trends, They tracked numbers

452
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: and statistics. They also account for world leaders and citizen

453
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 1: efforts to reduce these potential dangers. They also recognize that

454
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 1: nuclear energy and climate change are intertwined, so they say, well, yeah,

455
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 1: of course some people advocate for nuclear power to reduce

456
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 1: carbon dioxide emissions. So they recognize that there's kind of

457
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: like a given take there, and then you need to

458
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: pay attention to that. So why are we currently at

459
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: two point five minutes to midnight. Well, we gave you

460
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: their their stated answer, you know, in their op ed

461
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: piece earlier. But here's a couple of listed items, basically

462
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 1: bullet items that are of concern to them and I

463
00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: would imagine to all of us. So the United States

464
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,439
Speaker 1: in Russia together possess more than nine of the world's

465
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, and we remain at odds in a variety

466
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: of theaters. Now, obviously the US and Russia aren't facing

467
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 1: off one to one, but examples include Syria, the Ukraine,

468
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 1: and the borders of NATO. Uh, there's also you know,

469
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,959
Speaker 1: both of these countries continuing to modernize their forces with

470
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 1: little arms control negotiations. So as of this recording, what

471
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 1: was it last week? President Trump announced that there was

472
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 1: he was going to increase a massive amount of spending

473
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: to the defense budget, So you know that that's in

474
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: line with this. Now North Korea is another factor. They

475
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 1: continue to conduct underground nuclear tests. They're giving indications that

476
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 1: it would keep trying to develop a nuclear weapon, one

477
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: that has delivery capabilities. So we're talking about I C

478
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: B M S here. I believe Pakistan and India continue

479
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 1: to threaten each other with nuclear warfare. Now they're facing

480
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,479
Speaker 1: off over the line of controlling Kashmir. Now. The Bulletin

481
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: of Atomic Scientists also adds that climate changes outlook looks

482
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: somewhat less dismal than it used to, but only somewhat.

483
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 1: They say that's a direct quote, uh so steen warmest

484
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: year on record, and sixteen of the seventeen warmest years

485
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: on record have been recorded since two thousand and one,

486
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: so that's of concern to them. They say climate change

487
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: is a risk to human health and has adverse effects

488
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: on our food availability. They also include within all of

489
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: this the rise of nationalism worldwide, as well as both

490
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 1: President Trump and Vladimir Putin's comments about the use and

491
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: proliferation of nuclear weapons, as well as uh. President Trump's

492
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: disbelief in the scientific consensus on climate change. In fact,

493
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 1: the US is scheduled to spend between one hundred billion

494
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: and one trillion dollars on retrofitting nuclear weapons for another

495
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: four decades of service. Uh. I was just watching the Expanse,

496
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 1: the show that we've talked about on on Stuff to

497
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: blow your mind many times. They fire a bunch of

498
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: nuclear missiles into outer space at one point, and I

499
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 1: believe that it is supposed to represent the if not

500
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 1: the entirety, then at least the vast majority of Earth's

501
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: and nuclear arsenal is launched in that in that scenario. Yeah,

502
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: it really made me think on this. Okay, So the

503
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: bulletin also see, you know, Trump's rhetoric as a disregard

504
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 1: for scientific expertise, and they say this is a growing problem.

505
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,719
Speaker 1: Here's some additional factors as well. They say, the Russian

506
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 1: cyber attack on the United States political system, the gene

507
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,959
Speaker 1: editing tool Crisper. Uh. So we've talked about this on

508
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: this show and in other How Stuff Works media. Basically,

509
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: the idea here is that CRISP, Crisper could possibly make

510
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 1: it easier to produce biological weapons. And then they also

511
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: listed the rise of quote fake news. Now, when they

512
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: probably released this thing, they weren't as sick of the

513
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 1: term fake news as the rest of us, and honestly

514
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: me personally, I'd prefer to use other terms like disinformation.

515
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, the the term has become muddy, even muddy

516
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: or since we first talked about it in our episode,

517
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: is social media driving me crazy? Because it's kind of

518
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: been it's it's it's kind of been co opted, so

519
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: now it is uh, it's um, it's an insult that

520
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: is leveled at reputable news sources as well as intentionally

521
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: confusing or inaccurate reports. Yeah, so some of you are

522
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: probably listening and you're going, wow, this is really heavily

523
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: waited on the climate change thing. I'm not necessarily a

524
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: believer in that, or maybe you are, but um, but

525
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: what does it have to do, you know with nuclear annihilation.

526
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: Here's where I kind of fall on this thing, which

527
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: is that even outside of scientific reason I've always thought

528
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: about climate change is being similar to Pascal's wager. You

529
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: know that Robert Pascal's wager um basically on the belief

530
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: of God and the ideas. You know that as a

531
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: rational person, I think if climate change does exist and

532
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: we fight to stop it, well we're going to experience

533
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 1: more gains and less loss. Right. But it's a probability gamble. However, I,

534
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: as a science communicator, do believe in the science behind

535
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 1: climate change. Don't get me wrong, But so to me,

536
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: it's like it's similar to the belief in God, and

537
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,959
Speaker 1: that it's it's it's not about science or religion as

538
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: much as like, you've got to think of it as

539
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 1: like a rewards and risks game, right. Uh. And hey,

540
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: you know what if I take up my recycling and

541
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit better about my carbon footprint. Uh,

542
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: and it's a it's a little bit of a strain

543
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 1: on my lifestyle. Sorry, you know what, I'd rather do

544
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: that than boil alive. Yeah, and you know, and and

545
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: just to drive home the important thing here too, there

546
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 1: is a scientific consensus that yes, climate it is occurring,

547
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: and that that humans um are are are the if

548
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: not if are a major factor, if not the major factor,

549
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 1: uh in its spinning out of control. Uh. Now, I'm

550
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 1: sure there's of you out there who have your doubts you.

551
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,959
Speaker 1: I'm sure you have an expert or two that you

552
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: whose opinions you turned to. I'm sure you have a

553
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 1: list of pre prepared problems with with climate change, but

554
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: you really can't argue with the fact that this is

555
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: the scientific consensus. And if you were going to if

556
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 1: you're if you're gonna work outside of scientific consensus, then

557
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 1: that is that is ultimately an a logical choice. Yeah,

558
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: and so look, like the reason why I'm addressing this

559
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: here is I know that this is contentious. I know

560
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 1: that we have some listeners who are probably going to

561
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: write us in about this and say, I can't believe

562
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 1: that you guys sided with this group that believes in

563
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: climate change, right, And I know for a fact that

564
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: when this episode goes up on Facebook that there will

565
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: be dozens of comments, probably about how this is all

566
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: a scam. But look, we have to address it. That's

567
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 1: what I believe. This is where we are at with

568
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: scientific consensus. This is a show about how science is

569
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: used in our world, and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

570
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: is a group of experts. Yeah, I mean, ultimately you

571
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: have to if you, well, what am I gonna side

572
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 1: with if it's not scientific consensus. Am I gonna side

573
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: with political consensus and I'm not gonna side with religious consensus.

574
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: I really haven't seen much in the way of I've

575
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 1: seen religious arguments for combating climate change, but I haven't

576
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: seen much in the way of religious arguments that that

577
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 1: that human uh created climate change is not occurring. So

578
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: I don't really think even have an option in that

579
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 1: direction if I chose to go that way. Yeah, yeah,

580
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: exactly so and and and again. We're gonna get back

581
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 1: into this again in a later section because there is

582
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 1: a strong argument against the bulletin of atomic scientists that

583
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: will will relate to you later. I just wanted to

584
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 1: set that up as we were talking about the climate

585
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: change stuff. Now, historical events have edged us this close

586
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: to the doomsday midnight before. In fact, in nineteen forty nine,

587
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 1: when the Soviet Union tested an atomic bomb and the

588
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,919
Speaker 1: nuclear arms race began, that was one time. Then also

589
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:14,359
Speaker 1: in four when American Soviet relations deteriorated and deployed, they

590
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 1: both deployed short range missiles around Europe, and that's again

591
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: right around prime time for you and me as little kids. Uh.

592
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: And in nineteen fifty two when they both tested thermonuclear

593
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,720
Speaker 1: hydrogen bombs. That's the only time it's ever been closer

594
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 1: to midnight than right now. So here's some nightmare scenarios

595
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: that they pitch the Bulletin of atomic scientists that could

596
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: edge us even further. One is a NATO war with Russia. Yeah,

597
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 1: that would be horrible. Two is an American conflict with China.

598
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 1: That would be horrible. Three is an erratic launched by

599
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: North Korea, meaning they're nuclear missiles. And we got it

600
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 1: was like two or three days ago. Wasn't they do

601
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 1: this all the time? North Korea like erratically has some

602
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 1: missile fly off into the and well, you can, you

603
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 1: can say erratic. But but also my understanding is that

604
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 1: there are certain military operations that go on every year

605
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 1: between with the US and South Korea and this they

606
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 1: always do something to sort of speak out and to

607
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 1: protest the events, and this is the latest version of this.

608
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: In fact, I think I read this morning on my

609
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 1: way into work something about you know, China basically said like, hey,

610
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: North Korea, cool your jets. United States and South Korea,

611
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,839
Speaker 1: can you kind of slow your role with the military operations.

612
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 1: You know, they're trying to be the logical ones in

613
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: this well, at least on the face of it, all right,

614
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 1: And another horrible scenario they predict as a war between

615
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: India and Pakistan. And the final one would be if

616
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 1: ISIS was somehow nuclear enabled. So all of these are

617
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 1: things that they see as complete nightmare scenarios that could

618
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 1: you know, push us even closer to midnight. The Bulletin

619
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: themselves also called upon Trump and Putin to use their

620
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 1: quote friendly relationship to reduce nuclear weapons stocks. So I

621
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 1: think that was kind of funny. Actually, I mean, given

622
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 1: all this, you know, we joke about it. S n

623
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: LSO is doing some kind of gag one way or

624
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 1: the other about Trump and Putin. But you know, yeah,

625
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 1: I mean, to take a step back from all of it,

626
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: it is a bit ridiculous that that we're in this

627
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: scenario where there's so much talk about these two uh,

628
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: these two uh governmental heads being in collusion with each other,

629
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: and yet the the arms race rhetoric has has increased ramping.

630
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 1: You think you think that we that we'd at least

631
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 1: get the side effect of of of calm, calmer nuclear relations,

632
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: but we can only hope. Thus this is the world

633
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 1: we live in. Okay, let's take another break, and when

634
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 1: we get back, we're going to introduce these arguments about

635
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 1: whether or not we should believe in the doomsday clock

636
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 1: or not. Alright, we're back. So you're you're scrolling through

637
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 1: your Facebook feed and you you you make out the

638
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 1: you know, the unmistakable symbol of the of the doomsday clock.

639
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 1: Should you click on it? Should you not click on it?

640
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 1: Should you give it a thumbs up or a smiley?

641
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 1: Should you give it the frowny face, the angry face,

642
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: or just the sad face? How should we react to it?

643
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,720
Speaker 1: So we've already presented to you how they come about

644
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:35,359
Speaker 1: their their decision making of of where the hands on

645
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 1: this clock reside, right, Uh. And you can, you know,

646
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 1: judge for yourself whether or not you think that's logical.

647
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 1: But there is an argument against it presented by a

648
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 1: guy named Tom Nichols. Uh. He is a professor of

649
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 1: National security affairs at the U. S. Naval War College,

650
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: and he says that, yes, the bulletin was right to

651
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: remind us of the problems with nuclear weapons during the

652
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 1: Cold War. He says, actually says, look, this is a

653
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: great and venerable journal. Even though I don't necessarily agree

654
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 1: with their politics, but he argues that the world today

655
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 1: is much safer, and so he dismisses the addition of

656
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 1: climate change to the doomsday clock, and he calls it notional.

657
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: He says that scientists involved in this are catering to

658
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 1: a liberal audience and that they have concerns such as

659
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 1: quote being mean to each other, so he says the

660
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 1: clock itself means nothing. He compares where the clock was

661
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 1: set to historical events and he argues that we're safer

662
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,240
Speaker 1: now than we were in and that's when the clock

663
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,720
Speaker 1: was set at its best. So this is his argument.

664
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: He also says the clock is quote simply theater, uh,

665
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: and that it's designed to create a sense of urgent

666
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 1: worry about these things that the scientists think we need

667
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: to worry about. On this, I'm not going to argue

668
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 1: with him that. I'm sure the Bolton would too, and

669
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 1: they are pretty clear about saying like, yes, this is

670
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 1: a communication proping and a tool for us to get

671
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,839
Speaker 1: people to start talking about these problems, and it's it's

672
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: also yeah Worth pointing out that even even when when

673
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 1: the clock was at its best, you still have nuclear

674
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: states and there's a perceivable path to a potential nuclear

675
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 1: conflict or nuclear detonation that's always there just by virtue

676
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: of having armed states. UH. This would be content for

677
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:25,720
Speaker 1: a later episode, but I was I was reading recently

678
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 1: about UH computing errors that have occurred here and there

679
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 1: regarding the systems that manage uh the nuclear armaments on

680
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: on both sides, and that is terrifying. Yeah. Yeah, I

681
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 1: I left some of those notes out, but that's absolutely

682
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: true that that there have been computing errors that basically said, oh,

683
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 1: somebody just launched a bunch of missiles at US, and

684
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: it was only because there was a human being there

685
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 1: who who was able to recognize that there was a

686
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 1: malfunction and say, no, that's not actually happening. Do not retaliate. Yeah,

687
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: at all points, the technology is fallible and the humans

688
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: involved are fallible, and you just gotta hope and pray

689
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 1: that that they're not not both fallible at the same time,

690
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 1: because that's when when when the clock starts moving again.

691
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: But nichols argument is that scientists since the end of

692
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 1: World War two have been trying to figure out how

693
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 1: to translate their intelligence in things like chemistry and physics

694
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: and earth sciences into political powers. So he's basically saying

695
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: that they're trying things like the doomsday clock are an

696
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:34,280
Speaker 1: attempted as a power grab by science. Uh. He argues

697
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 1: that there are good reasons for leaders to reject scientific advice.

698
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 1: And this is his direct quote. It's easy to be

699
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 1: a fan of scientists running things as long as your

700
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 1: own guys doing the sciencing. But scientists can be wrong

701
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 1: about politics in all kinds of ways. Uh. And then

702
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 1: it all comes down to this. He has a particular

703
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 1: bone to pick with Leon Cooper, who is a person

704
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,400
Speaker 1: that's involved with the bulletin. I think he used to

705
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 1: be on the security UH membership team, and the two

706
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:08,399
Speaker 1: of them apparently had a nasty debate with each other

707
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 1: at Brown University. So he wants the bulletin to change

708
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 1: the clock back to being only about nuclear danger, and

709
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 1: that they should take out climate change, artificial intelligence, and

710
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 1: you know, genetic modification. Either that or he says they

711
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 1: should just retire it in general. UM. Now, I would

712
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: like to point something out here. The article in which

713
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 1: he wrote this was published in January, and within it

714
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 1: even then he said, God help us if Donald Trump

715
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 1: is elected and controls our nuclear trigger, so he may

716
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 1: you know, we don't have Nickels here in the room

717
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:48,320
Speaker 1: with us. But he may have a little bit of

718
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 1: a different answer today because of you know, how they've

719
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: adjusted the clock, and he whether or not climate changes

720
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 1: on the board certainly were we've edged a little bit

721
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: closer and turns of nuclear armament. So this is my

722
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 1: counter argument on this, because he says things like, oh, well,

723
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 1: they're concerned about things like being mean to each other. Well,

724
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 1: you know, Joe and I just did this two part

725
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 1: episode where we talked about animal intelligence and we compared

726
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: it to humanity, and I'm far more concerned right now

727
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 1: about humanity's recent lack of empathy and how that's going

728
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 1: to contribute to our moral decision making progress. You tie

729
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:32,760
Speaker 1: that into technologies of death like nuclear weapons or genetic

730
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 1: modification or artificial intelligence, all these things that the bulletin

731
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 1: lists above. I'm not so dismissive of those things. Yeah,

732
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I would agree all of these these aspects

733
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:49,399
Speaker 1: of humanity are interconnected. Our technology, the way we view

734
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 1: each other, the way we treat each other, the politics,

735
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 1: the science, and I think it it Uh, yeah, it's

736
00:42:55,960 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 1: it's counterproductive to want to just say, like you to

737
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 1: to fall back on some of the arguments here presented

738
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 1: by Nichols, the idea that we should only look at

739
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 1: at this in a political sphere only, yeah, or or

740
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: that the scientists are saying they only want to run

741
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 1: things from a scientific perspective. These are all interconnected. There's

742
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 1: there's there's no avoiding that. Yeah. And the Bulletin themselves

743
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 1: address this by saying, uh, you know, sometimes they're asked.

744
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 1: They even have this on their f a Q page,

745
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: what's worse nuclear energy or climate change? And their quote is,

746
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, trying to answer the

747
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:36,280
Speaker 1: question is like standing around in a burning house arguing

748
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 1: about whether it's better to die of smoke inhalation or

749
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 1: from a falling timber. And that kind of gets back

750
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 1: to my Pascal's wager thing, is that it's like, well,

751
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 1: you know, it's a it's a cost benefit rewards risks thing.

752
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:53,799
Speaker 1: So now the Bulletin themselves, they don't as far as

753
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: I could find, they didn't, you know, counter argue Nickels.

754
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 1: But they do have an argument in favor of why

755
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 1: climate change is included in the Doomsday Clock, and this

756
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 1: is written by Don Stover and it's available on their site.

757
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 1: She says John Cook, who's a research fellow on climate

758
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:16,800
Speaker 1: communication at the University of Queensland's Global Change Institute, said, quote,

759
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 1: our planet has been building up heat at the rate

760
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: of about four Hiroshima bombs every second. Consider that going

761
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: continuously for several decades. Then this was reformulated by a

762
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 1: climate scientist, James Hansen, who is a member of the

763
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: Science and Security Board, and in Hansen said that climate change,

764
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 1: its excess energy build up in the Earth's ocean and

765
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 1: other heat reservoirs, was equivalent to exploding four hundred thousand

766
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: Hiroshima atomic bombs per day three hundred and sixty five

767
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 1: days per year. Now that sounds crazy, right, Like we

768
00:44:56,800 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 1: all go con now like this just the even like

769
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:04,279
Speaker 1: I can go all right, maybe I see where Nichols

770
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 1: is at with like thinking that this is purely rhetorical.

771
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 1: But Don Stover does a really good job in this

772
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: article of breaking down why these are important arguments, Because yeah,

773
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 1: on on the surface of things, I hear those stats

774
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,319
Speaker 1: and I think, well, you're talking about like global heat

775
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 1: increases versus the very localized um heat output of a

776
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 1: of a nuclear detonation. It's kind of disingenuous to compare

777
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 1: those two things. Yeah, exactly, But Stover says, okay, is

778
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 1: this comparison accurate. Well, she says Hanson, comparing the explosive

779
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 1: yield and not instant maths of death of a bomb yield, Well,

780
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: that's measured in keylow tons of T and T. You

781
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 1: can take that and you can convert it into an

782
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: equivalent number of calories for direct comparison with the Earth's

783
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 1: rising heat content. The problem that Hanson argues is that

784
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:02,359
Speaker 1: greenhouse gases reduce the amount of Earth's heat radiation that's

785
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 1: going out into space, So there's a temporary energy imbalance

786
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,720
Speaker 1: here on the planet. And they've done the math figuring

787
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:13,320
Speaker 1: out that that totals two point six watts per square

788
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 1: meter of Earth's surface. Now, Anthony Watts dismissed this excess energy.

789
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 1: This is another person who argued against this and said, look,

790
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 1: that's hardly a blip. It only has the power of

791
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 1: one one of a sixty what lightbulb. And that's true.

792
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: But then Stover points out the numbers are still right

793
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 1: when you consider the cumulative imbalance over time. So their

794
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 1: example is if you lived in a house and it

795
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,240
Speaker 1: had a point six what per square meter of heat

796
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: energy that never left the building. It would raise the

797
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: heat by four point five degrees per day, eventually boiling

798
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: you to death and under a month. That's a pretty

799
00:46:55,080 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 1: big twinkie. Yes, it is, Dr Bankman. Uh Now, Stover says,

800
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 1: is the comparison effective well. Cook argues that his pronouncement

801
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:09,479
Speaker 1: was effective since it made headlines around the world, meaning again, look,

802
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 1: this is a communications device. Uh. Since misinformation about climate change,

803
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 1: or what he calls sticky ideas, Cook wanted to fight

804
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: them with stickier ideas rather than speaking in complex, abstract,

805
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 1: dry language. He wanted to advocate for simple, concrete and

806
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 1: basically emotional rhetoric. But that was also credible, So math's there,

807
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 1: But he also wanted to sort of condense it into

808
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 1: something that was I guess, as we say with in

809
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: terms of social media, would go viral. Yeah. So the yeah,

810
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 1: the idea of being here that if you have anti

811
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: climate change statements that have to invoke Stephen Colbert's terminology

812
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,399
Speaker 1: truthiness to them, like they they they feel like they're

813
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:54,439
Speaker 1: they're accurate, and therefore people cling to them. He's trying

814
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: to create things that that both feel truthy and our

815
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 1: truth exactly. Yeah, I think that's his goal here. And

816
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: then finally Stover says, well, is the comparison itself appropriate?

817
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:08,360
Speaker 1: And she argues, yes, it is. Climate change is a

818
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 1: manmade phenomenon that is also catastrophic, and she says the

819
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,319
Speaker 1: atom bomb is a manmade phenomenon that is catastrophic. The

820
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,760
Speaker 1: goal of the bulletin is to spur people to action,

821
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,280
Speaker 1: and it seems to be working. Also, she says climate

822
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:27,840
Speaker 1: change does cause mass death by increasing the frequency of

823
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 1: extreme weather events like heat waves and floods, while creating

824
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 1: conditions that make it easier for disease to thrive and

825
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 1: crops to fail. Uh. In fact, it is already estimated

826
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 1: that climate change kills four hundred thousand people annually in

827
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 1: that respect. So I didn't see how she broke those

828
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 1: numbers down, but I'm guessing what she means is that heat,

829
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 1: you know, accumulatively, heat waves, floods, increases in disease and

830
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 1: uh uh, I would imagine starve ation due to crop

831
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 1: failure amounts to that many deaths per year. So all right,

832
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 1: we're Robert and I are going to leave it up

833
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:10,839
Speaker 1: to you audience. We're not gonna tell you one way

834
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:12,919
Speaker 1: what to think or the other about the doomsday clock.

835
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 1: But we've broken it down for you. Now you know

836
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 1: what the doomsday clock is, you know who the people

837
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 1: are behind it, you know how they calculate what it is.

838
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 1: Are we two and a half minutes to midnight? How's

839
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 1: Iron maide In song sounding to us? Now? I mean,

840
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 1: in the end here, regardless of how you think about it,

841
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: the the clock is achieving its purpose, getting people to

842
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 1: discuss it, to tease apart the issue, ask themselves, do

843
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 1: are that is what's going on in the world today

844
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: making us safer? Do we feel safer? Um? And how

845
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 1: concerns should we be about nuclear weapons? About climate change

846
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 1: and about some of these emerging threats that we discussed

847
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 1: some of the you know, ways more science sci fi threats,

848
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 1: but but as but the threats that are still part

849
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 1: of this, uh, this human invention, things that we've introduced

850
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 1: into the world by opening the technological Pandora's box, if

851
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 1: you will. Yeah, speaking of sci fi threats, I saw

852
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 1: this shirt when I was on the airplane on the

853
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 1: way to Seattle last week. That made me think of

854
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 1: all of this and and I did not realize it,

855
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 1: but it is a quote from Aliens Uh, so I

856
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 1: went and looked it up. This guy on the airplane

857
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:22,879
Speaker 1: that I was on, he was wearing a T shirt

858
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 1: that said no maste piece through superior firepower, and the

859
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 1: image was something like a somebody meditating in a lotus position,

860
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:36,280
Speaker 1: but the person was made up of two machine guns

861
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:41,160
Speaker 1: pointing upward. And so you know, apparently this is a

862
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:44,760
Speaker 1: slogan that one of the soldiers I believe it's Frost

863
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 1: in Aliens has emblazoned on their uniform. Would Frost You're

864
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 1: gonna have to think Frost is uh? Is Frost? The

865
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 1: other guy with the giant machine gun? That's not Vasquez? Okay, okay,

866
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 1: that one alright, a like gatling gun thing. Maybe I'm wrong.

867
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 1: Aliens fans out there are probably screaming at us through

868
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:10,120
Speaker 1: the through the podcast headphones, but um, anyways, so it

869
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: came from that. But then you know, this is a

870
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 1: shirt that this guy was wearing basically saying advocating for

871
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:19,799
Speaker 1: the same you know, nuclear proliferation idea here that it's

872
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 1: a deterrence. If we have superior firepower, then that will

873
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 1: create peace because no one will want to attack us. Right,

874
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:28,799
Speaker 1: I don't know if I agree with that. Uh, and

875
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:32,800
Speaker 1: I'm an Aliens fan. Well, you know that that shirt

876
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 1: design reminds me of the cover art for a p

877
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 1: jo Or Rourke book that came out in called Give

878
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 1: War a Chance, And the cover art was the peace symbol,

879
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 1: but the center of the peace symbol was a B

880
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 1: fifty two bomber. Uh yeah, it's ah, I feel like.

881
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 1: But in both both of these cases, the symbol that

882
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 1: the simplification of the message, which winds up with the

883
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:02,240
Speaker 1: symbolic simplification of the the doomsday clock. I mean, these

884
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:07,360
Speaker 1: raised questions about how are we to think about about

885
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 1: nuclear arms? How are you think about about limiting and

886
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 1: decreasing the number of nuclear weapons out there? Because it

887
00:52:14,760 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 1: everything is interconnected. It's a it's it's a it's a

888
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 1: it's a jinga game of a humanity survival. And yeah,

889
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 1: you can say nuclear weapons are bad, but you can't

890
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:28,280
Speaker 1: just you know, you can't just pull out the jinga

891
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 1: block for one nation's weapons and expect that to it

892
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 1: all be a reasonable response unless everybody else is uh

893
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 1: is is coordinating, coordinating their movements as well. Uh. It's

894
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:44,839
Speaker 1: and that's why we're treking scenario similar build ups in

895
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 1: other countries, right, like, first it was the US and Russia,

896
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 1: then it was India and Pakistan. Now it's North Korea

897
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 1: and South Korea. Like we're going to keep seeing this

898
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 1: kind of build up all around the world, If that's

899
00:52:57,840 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 1: going to be the logic that we use for trying

900
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 1: keep peace. Yeah, I mean, because ultimately there is a there,

901
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 1: there's a special table you get to sit at. If

902
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: you have access to these weapons, it gives you. It

903
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,799
Speaker 1: gives you a certain amount of power and in a

904
00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 1: certain voice that you didn't have previously. Um. And my

905
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 1: argument would be, even if I did believe in peace

906
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 1: through superior firepower, based on what we were talking about earlier,

907
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:30,640
Speaker 1: if there's either human miscalculation or technological miscalculation, having that

908
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 1: much firepower possibly go wrong, it's not worth it to me. Yeah,

909
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,839
Speaker 1: And in aliens it goes, It goes pretty wrong. It does, indeed, Yeah,

910
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 1: it does. Indeed, although I guess we have to blame

911
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 1: the engineers for that or we'll find out an alien

912
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 1: covenant in the UM. So, if you're concerned about this,

913
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 1: if you've heard this episode and you're you've got the

914
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 1: doomsday clock fear, the bulletin says there's three things that

915
00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 1: you can do. The first is you can learn as

916
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:58,799
Speaker 1: much as you can about the powerful technology that can

917
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 1: destroy our way of life. Yeah, that sounds like a

918
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:04,879
Speaker 1: fun homework assignment. Uh. Then you can share what you've learned,

919
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 1: either tell people in real life or put it on

920
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 1: social media or something. Uh. And then they say the

921
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:12,960
Speaker 1: third thing is tell your government representatives what your concerns are.

922
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 1: So that's the doomsday clock, that's the bulletin of atomic scientists.

923
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:22,720
Speaker 1: Let us know. Do you believe this whole climate change

924
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 1: is as bad as nuclear war things? Should climate change

925
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 1: be included in the doomsday clock's calculations? And are we

926
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 1: really two point five minutes close to midnight? Or where

927
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 1: would you estimate us on the clock? Yeah? I'd also

928
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 1: love to hear from listeners both younger and older than us,

929
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 1: uh with with their personal take on what it was

930
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 1: like to grow up in the shadow of the mushroom class.

931
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:49,800
Speaker 1: Some of our older audience members uh may have memories

932
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:53,480
Speaker 1: even from from before the advent of nuclear weapons, like

933
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:56,319
Speaker 1: and and our younger listen. We have listeners out there

934
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 1: who came out of the nineties um or or even

935
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: even later. Uh. Terrifyingly enough, uh so so I'd be

936
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 1: interested to hear what how, what have you grown up in? What?

937
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 1: What is what is the environment? Then what is the

938
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:11,720
Speaker 1: media been telling you? What have you been picking up from? Uh,

939
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 1: from adults in your life as well as all of

940
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 1: the various media you consume regarding the these threats to

941
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 1: our way of life? Yeah, should we be panicked? All

942
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 1: the ways you can get in touch with us. Then,

943
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:28,360
Speaker 1: there's so many social media channels these days were on Facebook, Twitter, Tumbler,

944
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 1: and Instagram. And you should visit stuff to Blow your

945
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:35,520
Speaker 1: Mind dot com. Man, that is a good website. Ah, yeah,

946
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 1: I'm partial to it. That's where because that's where you

947
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:40,200
Speaker 1: find all the episodes of this podcast, as well as

948
00:55:40,239 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 1: blog post videos and links hotell those social media accounts

949
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 1: that we mentioned earlier. And then if you just want

950
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 1: to write us directly, you can always find us at

951
00:55:48,080 --> 00:56:00,160
Speaker 1: blow the Mind at how stuff Works dot com for

952
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 1: more on this and thousands of other topics. Because it

953
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:14,920
Speaker 1: how stuff Works dot com. I think