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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the Betting pros PGA Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Pat Fitzmorris, joined by my colleague Bau mcbrair. We

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Speaker 1: have a great tournament coming up this week. It is

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Speaker 1: the Farmer's Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego.

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Speaker 1: Bow and I are about to preview it from a

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Speaker 1: betting perspective, and we are going to tell you who

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Speaker 1: we like, who we don't like, and what we're betting.

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Speaker 1: We're also going to give you our one and done

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Speaker 1: picks at the end of the show. But first, I'm

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Speaker 1: extremely excited to tell you that the Betting pros PGA

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Speaker 1: Podcast is now sponsored by our good friends at Underdog. Bo.

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Speaker 1: You and I are big fans of the Underdog platform

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Speaker 1: for their fantasy football best ball contests, but Underdog also

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Speaker 1: has golf contests. Sign up for Underdog if you haven't

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Speaker 1: already with the promo code b p Golf to get

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Speaker 1: your first deposit matched up to one hundred dollars plus

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Speaker 1: a special pick available for you in the line Bobby.

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Speaker 1: More on Underdog golf contests a little later on the show.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to the Farmers Insurance Open. Bow a

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Speaker 1: quick recap of last week's tournament, the American Express, and

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Speaker 1: what a story. Nick Dunlap, a sophomore at the University

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Speaker 1: of Alabama, became the first amateur to win a PGA

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Speaker 1: Tour event since nineteen ninety one, when Phil Mickelson won

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Speaker 1: the Northern Telecom Open as an amateur. That was thirty

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Speaker 1: three years ago. So suffice it to say the rather

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Speaker 1: unexpected win for Nick Dunlap was not one of the

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Speaker 1: outright winter picks we recommended on last week's show. And

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Speaker 1: we have now had two long shot winners back to back,

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Speaker 1: Grayson Murray two weeks ago at the Sony Open and

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Speaker 1: now Nick Dunlap. Nick Dunlap three. Oh that's right. Sit,

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Speaker 1: Wait that was that was a long shot. It was

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Speaker 1: a long shot, a longer shot. I mean, Grayson Murray

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Speaker 1: and Nick Dunlap were totally off the map. Yeah exactly.

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Speaker 1: But good for Nick don Lap. Not so good for

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Speaker 1: golf betters who had outrights on other players. I don't

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Speaker 1: have much else to say about the AMEX this year.

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Speaker 1: Ball I wasn't exactly glued to the weekend coverage since

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Speaker 1: we had NFL playoff games on both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: Anything to add bow.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad that some of the some of the

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Speaker 2: top five and top ten picks that I kind of

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Speaker 2: layered my picks with did hit. There was there was

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Speaker 2: some good payoffs to be had even if he didn't

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Speaker 2: have the five hundred to one amateur only amateur in

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Speaker 2: the field long shot. That's it was pretty impressive to

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Speaker 2: watch that kid, twenty years old Alabama student athlete not

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Speaker 2: even be able to cash a check, Like he can't

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Speaker 2: cash that one point four million dollar check for the

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Speaker 2: win until he turns pro. So that's unbelievably impressive. Like

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Speaker 2: Phil Mickelson was the last one for a reason, There's

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of uphill struggles for amateur golfers in

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Speaker 2: this era. That's it blew my mind that somebody like

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Speaker 2: that could play that well under that amount of pressure.

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Speaker 2: It was unbelievable. I can't I can't believe it.

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Speaker 1: It was I was curious about what they do since

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Speaker 1: the amateur can't claim the top prize on that, and

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Speaker 1: all they do is they bump it, bump everything down

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Speaker 1: a spot, so second place gets the one point four million.

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Speaker 1: That was Christian Zutenhaut, right, yeah, yeah, so yeah, nice

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Speaker 1: nice way to back your way into one point four

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Speaker 1: million dollars as the non winner. Pretty good payday for him.

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Speaker 1: So we are onto the Farmers Insurance Open. Now this

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Speaker 1: is important if you plan on betting this event. It

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Speaker 1: starts on Wednesday this week, not the normal Thursday start.

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Speaker 1: A Wednesday start allows the tournament to finish on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: and that way the final round will not conflict with

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Speaker 1: the NFL's conference championship games on Sunday. Move by the

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Speaker 1: PGA Tour, and I appreciate that I will get to

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Speaker 1: watch the entire final round without having a flick back

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Speaker 1: and forth and miss some good shots and miss some

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Speaker 1: plays in those NFL games. So now, the first two

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Speaker 1: rounds are played at different courses, Tory Pines North and

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Speaker 1: Tory Pines South. The North course is shorter and easier

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Speaker 1: than the South course. It's a par seventy two, measuring

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Speaker 1: seven and fifty eight yards. Everyone in the field will

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Speaker 1: play one round in the North course, one round in

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Speaker 1: the South course the first two days and then it's

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Speaker 1: all on the South course Saturday, or excuse me, Friday

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Speaker 1: and Saturday. If you want to contend in this event,

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Speaker 1: you better make some hay on the North course. Like,

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Speaker 1: you cannot go out and shoot a seventy three on

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Speaker 1: the North course and expect to have a chance. The

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Speaker 1: Tory Pines South Course, it's got a lot more teeth.

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Speaker 1: It is on the short list of the best golf

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Speaker 1: courses in America. I think you'd agree with that bow.

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Speaker 1: It has in the world. It has hosted majors. It

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Speaker 1: is a par seventy two that weighs in at a

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Speaker 1: hefty seventy seven hundred and sixty five yards. The par

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Speaker 1: five eighteenth is one of the great finishing holes in golf.

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Speaker 1: It is a risk reward par five with a pond

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Speaker 1: in front of the green and a green that slopes

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Speaker 1: severely from back to front. And as for the forecast

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Speaker 1: San Diego, apparently they're getting some really heavy rain right

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Speaker 1: now early in the week, but the condition should be

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Speaker 1: dry throughout the tournament with light winds and temperatures right

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Speaker 1: around room temperature. Whether shouldn't be much of a factor,

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Speaker 1: I don't think. Bo. The defending champion is Max Homa,

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Speaker 1: who won last year with a score of thirteen under par.

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Speaker 1: He won by two strokes over Keegan Bradley. Anything to

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Speaker 1: add about Tory Pines, Bo.

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Speaker 2: Poema surfaces, a bumpy California specific type of grass that

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Speaker 2: they use on the putting greens inconsistence, So if you're

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Speaker 2: from another part of the country that's not used to Poana,

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Speaker 2: it gets crusty in the afternoon after it's been exposed

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Speaker 2: to some sunshine, and it's unpredictable. California golfers know it

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Speaker 2: to be just fine because we can almost kind of

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Speaker 2: gauge based on aim small miss small. That seems to

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Speaker 2: be the mantra around here when you're plutting on Poana.

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Speaker 2: So California golfers specifically do have a leg up here.

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Speaker 2: It's also, of course, with three of the four rounds

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Speaker 2: being played on one of the longer courses on the

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Speaker 2: RODA seventy seven hundred plus yards, driving distance is going

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Speaker 2: to be something to take into account, but most importantly

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Speaker 2: strokes gained from tea to green. It's paramount here. And

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Speaker 2: on top of that, instead of where we correlated putting

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Speaker 2: last week, because the American expresses a glorified putting contest,

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Speaker 2: we're going to focus more on around the green game

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Speaker 2: here because of the distance of the course and how

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Speaker 2: how difficult it is to hit these greens. Even if

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Speaker 2: you're a world class ball striker, there's no guarantee that

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Speaker 2: your approach is going to hold these really tough Poema greens,

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Speaker 2: so the whole bag is needed. You're not going to

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Speaker 2: see I don't know that you're going to see a

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Speaker 2: long shot winner like we've had the first three weeks

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Speaker 2: of this season, but it's not impossible. There's some really

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Speaker 2: soft odds here to be had, especially as you make

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Speaker 2: your way into top ten and top twenty bets. But

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Speaker 2: the favorites are the favorites here for a reasons. They

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Speaker 2: both have great event history and the type of makeup

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Speaker 2: in their game to contend at a course like this,

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Speaker 2: even if it's not Tory Pines specifically, These guys that

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Speaker 2: are favorites are there for a reason.

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Speaker 1: Demanding course for sure, not a putting contest like some

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Speaker 1: of the more recent events we've had. Definitely not a

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Speaker 1: bomb and gouage course. This is going to require some long,

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Speaker 1: straight driving and some great shot making, and like you said,

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Speaker 1: it's going to finally test these players metal around the greens,

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Speaker 1: which we haven't really seen in recent weeks.

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Speaker 2: Push back to that, there is some evidence that bomb

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Speaker 2: and gouge does work here, but you do have to

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Speaker 2: have your short game in order in order to take

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Speaker 2: advantage of that strategy, because, like we said, driving distance

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Speaker 2: will play a factor here. Whether or not it'll be

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Speaker 2: the winner's type of style of play that that remains

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Speaker 2: to be seen. But there is some merit to bomb

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Speaker 2: and gouge at Tory Pines, believe it or not.

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Speaker 1: Now we will get to our betting perspectives on the

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Speaker 1: Farmer Insurance Open in just a moment, But first go

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Speaker 1: sign yourself up with our friends at Underdog, where you

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Speaker 1: can make picks on your favorite golfers all season long.

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Speaker 1: Just pick higher or lower on selected stats for two

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Speaker 1: to five golfers and you can win up to twenty

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Speaker 1: times your money in a single day. You can also

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Speaker 1: make rivals picks, for example, selecting which of two golfers

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Speaker 1: will shoot a better score in a round. Golf picks

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Speaker 1: can be combined with players' stats from other sports too.

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Speaker 1: Sign up for Underdog if you haven't already, with the

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Speaker 1: promo code b P Golf that's BP Golf to get

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Speaker 1: your first deposit matched up to one hundred dollars plus

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Speaker 1: a special pick available for you. In the lobby, we

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Speaker 1: will be sharing our favorite PGA picks on underdog all

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Speaker 1: seasons starting next week, so be sure to play along

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Speaker 1: with us and we can win together. All right, Let's

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Speaker 1: look at the favorites at the Farmer Insurance Farmers Insurance

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Speaker 1: Open Bow on DraftKings. As of two pm Central Time

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Speaker 1: on Monday afternoon, we had Xander Schoffley as the favorite

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Speaker 1: at plus nine hundred bo. You mentioned Southern California familiarity

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Speaker 1: being a factor here. That fits Xander. Another Southern Californian

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Speaker 1: right behind him, Patrick Cantley at plus one thousand. Then

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Speaker 1: it's the defending Champ Max Home at plus eleven hundred,

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Speaker 1: Colin Morikawa plus twelve hundred, Ludwig Oberg at plus two thousand,

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Speaker 1: Sung jm at minwou Lee both at plus twenty two hundred,

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Speaker 1: Tony Fenow and Jason two guys with strong track records

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Speaker 1: at Torrey Pines both at plus twenty five hundred, and

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Speaker 1: Keegan Bradley at plus three thousand. Do any of the

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Speaker 1: favorites Capturior fancy ball.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, quite a few of them. Actually. This is an

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Speaker 2: event where the best golfers are going to be in

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Speaker 2: contention and whether or not they emerge victorious over the

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Speaker 2: one or two long shots that do make their way

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Speaker 2: to the top of the leaderboard. It's interesting you mentioned

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Speaker 2: the four top shortest odds, all from southern California, all

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Speaker 2: with the great all around game to boot. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to start my bidding at Kolin Morikawa at twelve to one.

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Speaker 2: I just like his odds relative to his ability here,

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Speaker 2: his track record here, Xander, I love here. He's number

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Speaker 2: one in my model, he's number one in a lot

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Speaker 2: of people's statistical models. Nine to one is a little

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Speaker 2: short for him, especially since he hasn't won anything in

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Speaker 2: a really long time. Xanderschoffley has been playing good golf,

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Speaker 2: but the type of golf that wins tournaments like this.

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Speaker 2: So I think I'll eschee him as a top outright

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Speaker 2: pick at nine to one, just because his odds are

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Speaker 2: too short as some in another format. For sure, Xander

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Speaker 2: Schoffley's He's going to do just fine here. But Colin

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Speaker 2: Morikawa at twelve to one is my most appealing one

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Speaker 2: of the favorites that here at this course. The only

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Speaker 2: thing he's really sacrificing to the field is driving distance.

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Speaker 2: Everything else he has in spades.

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Speaker 1: Third place last year here for Colin Morikawa didn't play

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, but in twenty twenty one he

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Speaker 1: was fourth fourth place here and his only appearance so

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Speaker 1: far in twenty twenty four, he was fifth at the Century.

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Speaker 1: So form and course fit both seem to line up

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Speaker 1: here with Morikawa. Max Homa. You mentioned another southern California.

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Speaker 1: I believe he's from Burbank, the defending champ. Three top

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Speaker 1: twenties here in the last four years. Should be comfortable

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Speaker 1: on this course again, Jason Daybo. He's won this event

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Speaker 1: twice and he has finished in the top seven in

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Speaker 1: six of the last ten years. Talk about a horse

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Speaker 1: for a course. You know you mentioned Marikawa, great ball

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Speaker 1: striker obviously, and Tony Fenow another great ball striker. Five

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Speaker 1: top tens here at this event in the last seven years.

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Speaker 1: All well worth considering, I think, and worthy of their

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Speaker 1: short odds. I'm with you. I don't know if the

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Speaker 1: odds are quite short enough on either Shoffley or can't

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Speaker 1: Ley for me, so I'm looking a little bit further

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Speaker 1: down the list. Yeah, sorry you were going to say.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just gonna mention some Jm's history here

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Speaker 2: is outstanding as well. He comes in fifth in my

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Speaker 2: model and at twenty two to one, that seems like

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Speaker 2: a no brainer to throw an outright bit on Sunday

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Speaker 2: And the reason why I might not be as inclined

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Speaker 2: to play the defending champion and Tony Fenow here, So

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Speaker 2: Homa and Feenw for me, of course pop in the modeling,

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Speaker 2: but their recent form hasn't been as good like home

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Speaker 2: is kind of an exception. But now where his usual

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Speaker 2: game where we like to bet on Tony Finow are

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Speaker 2: on courses where oh it's a birdie fest, Oh it's

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Speaker 2: something where birdies are better gained. As a stat, well,

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Speaker 2: I think that's kind of an outdated stat for Tony

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Speaker 2: fen now because he's not really in the top twenty

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Speaker 2: and birdie's gained in this field, especially when you start

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Speaker 2: an erring down parameters to longer courses like this that

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Speaker 2: have more challenge to them. So yes, it will be

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Speaker 2: important to make birdies here, especially on tougher holes. But

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Speaker 2: Tony Feenow's last year or so, he hasn't been that guy.

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Speaker 2: So where his past success in this event might lead

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Speaker 2: somebody to bet on him at thirty to one or

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Speaker 2: twenty eight to one, I wouldn't do it because his

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Speaker 2: recent form says that that isn't going to apply here.

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Speaker 2: I just I want to tell people to proceed with

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Speaker 2: caution with Tony feen Now this week because it seems

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Speaker 2: like kind of a sucker bet.

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Speaker 1: Good call. Wait for Feenaw to get on a heater,

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Speaker 1: wait for a birdie fast. What we'd love to see

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Speaker 1: is for Tony Feenau to start cranking it up here

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Speaker 1: in California. Maybe look for an opportunity at the Waste

249
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Speaker 1: Management in a couple of weeks in Phoenix, which probably

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Speaker 1: is going to be a birdie fast for sure.

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Speaker 2: I love him in Phoenix taking that. I like Keegan

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Speaker 2: Bradley in the same area better than Feena this week.

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Speaker 2: Keegan of course plays outstanding golf here specifically, but he

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Speaker 2: has that all around bag that you're looking for as

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Speaker 2: a ball striker, and if he could get the kind

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Speaker 2: of the finicky short game stuff in order, I think

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Speaker 2: he's going to contend heavily here at thirty to one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he was second last year in this event, and

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Speaker 1: in his last PGA Tour event he was second at

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Speaker 1: the Sony Open. He doesn't have that California thing working

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Speaker 1: for him. Bow He is from the frigid northeast. But

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Speaker 1: he does seem to play this course well, and the

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Speaker 1: Greens don't seem to bother him.

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Speaker 2: Quest if you want to like Brookline to so.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good point. Do they compare? Are there some similarities

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Speaker 1: like in the models where just yeah.

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Speaker 2: Straight longer courses. Yeah, he does well here.

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Speaker 1: Now, if you want a chance to win a free

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Speaker 1: one year premium Betting Pro subscription, you need to subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now comment below

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00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,240
Speaker 1: on this video and that's it. We'll be announcing a

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00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:26,880
Speaker 1: winner right here on the channel, So make sure to

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Speaker 1: turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when

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Speaker 1: new episodes are up and to claim your prize. All right,

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Speaker 1: but let's look at some of the mid range options

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Speaker 1: we have Saheith Thigala and Eric Cole at plus thirty

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Speaker 1: five hundred. Big Sepstraka is at plus four thousand. Will Zalatorus,

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Speaker 1: who lost in a playoff here to lucal List a

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Speaker 1: couple of years ago. He is at plus forty five hundred,

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Speaker 1: along with Justin Rose, Daki Matsuyama, Harris English, and Adrian

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Speaker 1: moronk Big Group at plus forty five hundred Nikolai Hogar

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Speaker 1: is plus five thousand, and then we've got Shane Lowry

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Speaker 1: and Daniel Berger at plus fifty five hundred. How about

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Speaker 1: this group ball any names you like here?

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Speaker 2: There are two groups. There are two guys in this

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Speaker 2: group that stand out to me, and both of them

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Speaker 2: have seen their odds slip from the number you just mentioned,

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Speaker 2: which I'm all for. Will z Alas Turris, of course,

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Speaker 2: is back from back surgery. He looked pretty solid last week.

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Speaker 2: Gave me some confidence that I don't have to really

291
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Speaker 2: worry about him in a place that he's very familiar with,

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Speaker 2: has a great history here. You had no business losing

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Speaker 2: to Luke List in that playoff. It was a very

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Speaker 2: close putt that he just lipped out to continue that tournament.

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Speaker 2: I like will Zalaturs who's now at fifty to one

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Speaker 2: odds plus five thousand, and Justin Rose has slipped to

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Speaker 2: sixty to one, so plus six thousand for Justin Rose.

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Speaker 2: He hits all the metrics in my model. Xala tors

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Speaker 2: Keiemen third in my weighted model, and Justin Rose Keman

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Speaker 2: seven and out of this whole field. So those guys

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Speaker 2: getting softer odds by the day. I'm all for those

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00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,800
Speaker 2: two guys getting slipping farther and farther down the sport

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Speaker 2: because they both line up beautifully here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So the recent form for Justin Rose, eh, not

305
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Speaker 1: that great. In his last seven appearances at Torrey Pines

306
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Speaker 1: fourth eighth, won it, miss cut, miss cut sixth, and

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Speaker 1: then eighteenth last year, so he does have a very

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00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:33,879
Speaker 1: strong track record here. And yeah, I mean you mentioned

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Speaker 1: Zalatoris his last three year, last three years, missed the

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Speaker 1: cut last year. Not sure how much the back might

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Speaker 1: have been bothering him then, but as you said, lost

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Speaker 1: the playoff to Luke List two years ago and was

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Speaker 1: seventh the year before that. Good to see him check

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Speaker 1: in with the thirty fourth last week at the American Express,

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Speaker 1: So maybe it's time to get back on the Will

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Speaker 1: Zalatoris train. While these odds are a lot longer, then

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Speaker 1: we're going to be getting at mid season and once

318
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Speaker 1: he gets going again, because he is a world class

319
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Speaker 1: player without question, especially.

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Speaker 2: With the long irons in on par fives, he's a

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Speaker 2: scoring machine. And that's that's something you'll have to pay

322
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Speaker 2: attention to, because if you're going to get up this course,

323
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Speaker 2: it's going to be on the par fives. These power

324
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,440
Speaker 2: fours are brutal. The par threes are brutal. The par fives,

325
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Speaker 2: although they are longer, they are gettable for birdies and

326
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Speaker 2: will Zon Touris seems to be one of the best

327
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Speaker 2: scoring players on par five holes going back a couple

328
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Speaker 2: of years before his back surgery.

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Speaker 1: You've been on Eric Cole the last couple of weeks

330
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Speaker 1: bo He's missed the cut in his only two appearances here.

331
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Speaker 1: Is this just not a great fit for his skills?

332
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Speaker 2: I wouldn't go that far. I think his odds are

333
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,920
Speaker 2: a little too short for what he can do here.

334
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Speaker 2: His off the tea game is really bad. We're talking

335
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,760
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred off the tee in this field,

336
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 2: so he's going to have to get off the tea

337
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 2: a lot better to make noise at Tory Pines. That's

338
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,919
Speaker 2: just a simple fact that you can't get to the

339
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:05,440
Speaker 2: green and regulation and get to proximity type of distances

340
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 2: with his off the t game being so poor. I

341
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Speaker 2: like the player, I just don't like the odds, and

342
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,119
Speaker 2: I don't like how his game necessarily fits this course

343
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 2: compared to the other guys in the same betting range.

344
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 1: Longer shots long and longer shots, guys plus six thousand

345
00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 1: and above. Besides Justin Rose, who has slipped, who's worth

346
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 1: a dart throw here ball?

347
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 2: I have three and amazingly they all came in. They

348
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 2: all came in the top twenty in my model out

349
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,440
Speaker 2: of one hundred and fifty six golfers. I'm really excited

350
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 2: to say that Matt Wallace came in twentieth in my model.

351
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 2: He's at one hundred and thirty. Englishman the Englishman, and

352
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,359
Speaker 2: I was surprised because of what I've been researching. A

353
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,119
Speaker 2: lot of people are favoring the Canadians like Adam Spenson

354
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,120
Speaker 2: and guys like that, and those guys did not pop

355
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: at all in my model, especially when I filtered for

356
00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,160
Speaker 2: the distance of the course being more than seventy four

357
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 2: hundred yards. It knocked a lot of those Canadians down

358
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,160
Speaker 2: for me. But Sam Stevens at one hundred and eighty

359
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 2: to one came in tenth in my model. Tenth and

360
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty one on a guy that's that

361
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 2: solid all around, who's a great long iron players, He's

362
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,480
Speaker 2: going to keep serve on those tougher holes with part

363
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 2: threes and Part four's and if he finds any fire

364
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 2: at all on the par fives, this guy's going to

365
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 2: make some noise scoring wise. And our guy coming back

366
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 2: from the brain Lesion Gary Woodland, amazing course history here,

367
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,239
Speaker 2: he's I don't know what kind of form he's in

368
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 2: quite yet, like playing shape. But to have the guy

369
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 2: who's eighth in my model at two hundred to one,

370
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 2: with the course history that he has at Tory Pines,

371
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,879
Speaker 2: this guy's a world class long iron player. He's a

372
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 2: world class scorer on par fives. I'll take it a

373
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 2: little quarter unit run at Gary Woodland just to feel something.

374
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 2: Just let's see this guy come back and make a

375
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 2: story out of it, like, because this guy is he's

376
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,920
Speaker 2: as close to the Damar Hamlin type comeback story as

377
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,679
Speaker 2: the PGA Tour has right now. And he had a

378
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 2: lot more reputation as a superb golfer before he went

379
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 2: through his whole ordeal last year.

380
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've I've got one dart throw too. I kind

381
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 1: of like here Scott Stallings one hundred and fifty to one.

382
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: So he won here in twenty fourteen, a long time ago,

383
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:32,120
Speaker 1: granted ten years, but then he finished second the following

384
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 1: year and he can bomb the hell out of it bow.

385
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 1: He is an absolute bomber. So look, I mean, I'm

386
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 1: not saying he should be one of the favorite Spiny means,

387
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 1: but I wrote two bucks down he wins. You should

388
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 1: take the wife out for a steak dinner with all

389
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: the trimming, so.

390
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 2: That's right, and you can't even get have her ordered dessert.

391
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,440
Speaker 2: I hate leave room for dessert. Got Scott Stallings, who

392
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 2: for a while there was the poor man's version of

393
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 2: brooks Kepka, all tanned up, got the big biceps in

394
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 2: the the tight polo shirt, going out there just ripping drives.

395
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 2: He's kind of in that same vein as Gary Woodland,

396
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 2: just like the type of player where you go out

397
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: there and rip the ball down the fairway and see

398
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:15,880
Speaker 2: what happens.

399
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 1: Now, we've already evoked his name a couple of times

400
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 1: Luke List two years ago. He's a plus seventy five hundred.

401
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: Not a good enough price for you.

402
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 2: No, And it's he's creating a lot of conflict because

403
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 2: I'm a never Lukelist guy and I'm contemplating breaking my

404
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 2: rule this week because he does love playing here. What

405
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: keeps me from doing that is his short game like,

406
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 2: not just his putting, which is better than it has

407
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 2: been but still pretty poor when you compare it to

408
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 2: what he's going to need to do. His chipping's not

409
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 2: that good either, and it's going to require a lot

410
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,719
Speaker 2: of good around the green game at Tory Pines, especially

411
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 2: on the south course for those three rounds. Luke List

412
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: caught fire life last year or two years ago when

413
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 2: he won, and I just don't know that he's that

414
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 2: exact player anymore. He's made a lot of changes to

415
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: his game since then, because between that win and this

416
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 2: week he's actually been worse off the tee and better

417
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: around the greens and on the greens. I just don't

418
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 2: know if he's quite there yet at this course. But yeah,

419
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 2: it's tempting because he does model extremely well. I'm just

420
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 2: I'm just a curmudge. And when it comes to hearing

421
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 2: that name, you.

422
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: Don't want to back the Pat Fitzmorris caliber chippers ball.

423
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 1: I totally understand it.

424
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're a Corey Connors guy too. I just love it.

425
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 2: I love hearing the guys that are facing a course

426
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: like this that has such a demand on the short

427
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 2: game and then you go out there and say, hey,

428
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 2: what about this guy that has no short game. He's amazing.

429
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 1: I know. I love all the terrible chippers like myself ball.

430
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 1: That's why I loved Victor Hovlin. Now now I had

431
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: to dump, and you learned how to chip.

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00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 2: So yeah he got He got really good at that,

433
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 2: and now he wins majors and FedEx Cups. And yeah,

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00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 2: you have to. You have to drop a guy once

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00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 2: he once he sews up that weakness.

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00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 1: Download the free Betting Pros app for iOS and Android

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com, slash apps or search Betting Pros in

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Speaker 1: the app store. All right, bo, what's on the betting

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00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 1: card for this week?

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00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 2: All right? And starting with Colin Morikawa, And then I'm

448
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,959
Speaker 2: gonna throw a couple of little half unit bets on

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00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 2: Sung GM and Kegan Bradley, and then I'm going quarter

450
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 2: units all the way through Xalatorus, Rose, Wallace Stevens, and Woodland.

451
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 2: So I'm kind of doing a Buckshot approach with my

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00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 2: favorite being Morikawa this week.

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00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got a little something on Marikawa outright. I've

454
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: got Jason Day outright and top five. Top five is

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00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,439
Speaker 1: plus five fifty the outright plus twenty five hundred, Kegan

456
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: Bradley outright at plus three thousand, and top ten at

457
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: plus three thirty. I've got Billy Horsechelbo at plus seven thousand.

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00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 1: He plays tough course as well, and he's had a

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00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: couple of top tens here, So I know, like generally

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00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: I want to wait until I get to Florida to

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00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 1: use Billy Horschel where he generally excels, but I'm gonna

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00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take him out of his element here. Scott Stallings,

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00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, one hundred and fifty to one. He

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00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 1: won here in twenty fourteen, Yeah, second the following year,

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00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,439
Speaker 1: and bo I think I'm going to piggyback you with

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00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 1: small bets on Sam Stevens and Gary Woodland like those are.

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00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: I think Sam Stevens some of his better performances have

468
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 1: come on top off courses.

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00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I couldn't believe that the way he's playing right now,

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00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 2: that he was still that deep on the board, modeling

471
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 2: super well for me at tenth in my entire sack

472
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 2: that I was impressed with that with that name popping

473
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 2: up because you look at the leaderboards these first few

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00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: events that he's participated in the season, and he's been

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00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: He's been there every week. You can't ignore a guy

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00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 2: that's playing that hot, even even at an event like

477
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: this where typically don't see long shot winners.

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00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: It's nice that your model agrees onto the one. In

479
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: Dune Picks, Paul, I finally made up some ground on

480
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 1: you after falling well behind in the first two events.

481
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 1: I had Adam Hadwin good for a sixth place finish

482
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 1: and three hundred and ten eight hundred dollars. You had

483
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 1: Sung j M who tied for twenty fifth, good for

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00:26:56,240 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: sixty three nine and eighty dollars. You're up first this week, bo,

485
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 1: who you got?

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00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 2: I am going to go with? See this is this

487
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 2: is where I start using some top guys to to

488
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 2: really just rub your nose in it. I want to.

489
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 2: I want to build a dominating lead before we hit

490
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 2: the Florida Swing. So I'm going to go at Xanderschoffley

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00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: this week.

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00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 1: Ooh, that is a big gun. Indeed, Xander all right,

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00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the horse for the courus,

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00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 1: Jason Day. The track record here is pretty impeccable. Maybe

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00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 1: he's not going to bring me home a win, but

496
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 1: I like the odds of him finishing top five or

497
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: top ten. That's going to do it for us. I

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00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 1: want to thank our new sponsor, Underdog. Sign up for

499
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Speaker 1: the lobby, and come join Bo and I again next

503
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 1: week when we will be previewing the AT and T

504
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: Pebblebeach Pro Am. Until then, so long everyone. Thanks for

505
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show,

506
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: the best freeway to support us is by leaving a

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