1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. A little bit of 7 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: a calm feel to some of this early morning and 8 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: trading after yesterday's rampant sell off, and I want to 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 1: get some perspective here from someone who actually has been 10 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,599 Speaker 1: trading markets for decades. We can do that with Vince Signarella, 11 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: Global Macro Strategies for Bloomberg News. Vince, what's your takeaway 12 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: from yesterday? They weren't playing around yesterday, were they? No? No, 13 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: not at all? That was that was quite a round. Um. 14 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: I think it was some. I think what we saw 15 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 1: yesterday was some really weak long positions which have been 16 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 1: built up for about a week and a half after 17 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: some week short positions. And I think that's what we're 18 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: seeing a lot of going on, a lot of day trading, 19 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: a lot of algo trading. We went through four thousand 20 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: on the SMP yesterday was major capitulation, uh with with 21 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 1: the sell off, al goes, driving stops lower, and we're 22 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: seeing some of this going on today in this morning. 23 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: It almost feels like the day is over and we 24 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: should go home. Already of the trading is very very quiet. 25 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,559 Speaker 1: It's very modest. As I'm looking over at the tape 26 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: right now, the average is giving back all of the 27 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: morning games just about with the SMP cash up just 28 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: about six. So Vince, you know you've been out there. 29 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: I think with a call that says, you know, the 30 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: Fed can really pause if at once to I mean, 31 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: inflation in a lot of parts of the economy is 32 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: has peaked, is rolling over. They don't need to be 33 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: over the aggressive the market yesterday kind of said maybe 34 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: that CPI print changes that a little bit. How do 35 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: you how do you think you know the federal view 36 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: all this stuff. I think the Fed is going to 37 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,639 Speaker 1: look past that one number, um and I would caution 38 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: people to look past that one number as well. I 39 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: know what. It obviously took a lot out of the 40 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: street yesterday and wiped a lot of the market out, 41 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: but it's potentially actually a good opportunity. I mean, the 42 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: consumer inflation expectations, and you know, just as a reminder, 43 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 1: inflation is an expect ation phenomenon. It's it's it's what 44 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: people think is going to happen, and that kind of 45 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: manifests itself into reality in the future. Inflation expectations on 46 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: a euro of the year basis of continuing to drop, 47 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,679 Speaker 1: and we've basically been seeing producer prices drop as well. 48 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,679 Speaker 1: And you know, the trend in CPI on a month 49 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: over month basis is lower also with the exception obviously 50 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: off Tuesday's number. So I think what we really need 51 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: to do is, like you know, as CPI, CPI which 52 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: was Tuesday's trash, could be Thursday's fortune if retail sales 53 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 1: comes in lower than expected, because what I expect to 54 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: see as we go into the end of the year 55 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: is slower growth. The set is definitely I think going 56 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: to push us close to if not into whatever session 57 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: um and prices and consumer expectations will fall. How about 58 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: I mean again, just thinking about yesterday's action, was it 59 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: a sense of the market overreacted yesterday, or as you 60 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 1: may be suggested, there were just some week longs out there. 61 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,239 Speaker 1: I think it's actually a little boatful. I think there 62 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: was something of an overreaction. UM. I mean, let's face it, 63 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: it really is just one number of all things being equal. Um. 64 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,279 Speaker 1: But at the same time, there's not a lot of confidence. 65 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: I think either side of this market, you have a 66 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: lot of people still in cash, not feeling good about equities. 67 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: We got a little bit jammed up over the last 68 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: week and a half after a major sell off, and 69 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: I think those positions were wiped out. Remember going into 70 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: the CPI number that that was up almost two fifty 71 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: And I was talking to traders shows before the data 72 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 1: and we were kind of like, what the heck are 73 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: these people thinking that's pretty optimal, that's pretty optimistic going 74 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: into a data print like this, And and I think 75 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: that was a big part of it. To people would 76 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: just so like worked up going into that number, and 77 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 1: they absolutely got crushed. Vince, the traders you talked to, 78 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: do they believe a soft landing is possible or are 79 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: they just saying, you know what, it's either we're in 80 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: or we're going into recession. It's just a question how 81 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: deep where do you think the trader sentiment is these days? 82 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: I don't I don't think there's a good feel about 83 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 1: a soft landing, and I commented about a month ago 84 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 1: the only soft landing we've seen the list twenty five 85 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: years was slowly on the Hudson Um. Most most of 86 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 1: the traders, most of the traders, if not all, of 87 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: the traders I talked to, think that we're going to 88 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: hit a wall, that the FED is going to push 89 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: us into a recession. Of sorts, they buy and large 90 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: sea equity is lower at the end of the year. 91 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: I disagree with that notion, but I think I'm a 92 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 1: little bit in a min already there. But by and 93 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: large they see us going into a recession. They see 94 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 1: the FED overreacting, if you will, um and pushing a 95 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: little bit too hard on at and and things are 96 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 1: going to be softer as we head into next year. 97 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: So when we hear from the Fed next week, Vince, 98 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: I mean, do you think we'll get any kind of 99 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:13,039 Speaker 1: body language as to we're gonna wait and see how 100 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: We're gonna wait here and see how the past you know, 101 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: rate hikes impact this economy, or do you think we 102 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: might get some body language about Nope, we're still focused 103 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: on inflation and we're signaling some more rate ikes. I 104 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: think the latter it would be very surprising for me, 105 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 1: uh to see them to see Powell shift from the 106 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: jackson Hole speech just just a few weeks ago to 107 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: a more modest, sort of neutral lean, if you will. 108 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: I think he's going to stay where he was quite hawkish, 109 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 1: which is what the market expects. UH. If he should 110 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: lean to like we're waiting and seeing, we're probably see 111 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: a massive rally, because that would be very very dubbish 112 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 1: of him. But more likely than that, he's going to 113 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:57,719 Speaker 1: stay on the theme that he painted for jackson Hole. 114 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: I would hope that the next set of months for 115 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 1: soul of Data UH will be some moderation because let's 116 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: face it, it does take six to twelve months for 117 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 1: the monetary policy to get through the economy, and they're 118 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: not really giving any they're not giving anything they've done 119 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 1: any time. Yet there seems to be a panic on 120 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 1: the part of the FLMC, and I think it has 121 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 1: a lot to do with them totally missing the boat 122 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 1: with their transient philosophy, and and now they're worried they're 123 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 1: gonna lose credibility once again by not moving too quickly. 124 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 1: And it's very possible they'll lose credibility by moving too quickly. Yeah, 125 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 1: interesting to see. It feels like they're kind of playing 126 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: catch up here and that might impact their decision making 127 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 1: going forward. We shall see Vincenerella, Global macro Strategists for 128 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News giving us his thoughts. And it's just kind 129 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: of had the call here that he thought that maybe 130 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,679 Speaker 1: we would get a pause here in the rates after 131 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 1: this rate increase coming up next week, and that would 132 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 1: be enough for risk assets. We'll have to see how 133 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: that plays out. The consensus seems to be, you know, 134 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:05,799 Speaker 1: on the other side of that trade. Let's switch gears 135 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: of technology again. We welcome to the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. 136 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: Amit Walia. He's the CEO of Informatica. Informatical is a 137 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: public traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. I 138 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: n f A is a ticker to put into your 139 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. It's got a market cap of six billion dollars. 140 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: Went public just last October. I p O a bunch 141 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 1: of underraters there at twenty nine stock to twenty one 142 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: and change. I mean, thanks so much for joining us 143 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Give us the story. 144 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: The informatica story. Give us the thirty seconds what we 145 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: need to know about your company and what you guys 146 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: are doing in that big technology stack. First of all, 147 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: thanks great to be here. Uh, you know, lots happening 148 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: right now. If you think about us, you know we're 149 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: in this next game years of digital transformation that will happen. 150 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 1: By the way, last Dame it was all about digital modernization. 151 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 1: So it's all going to be about transforming a business 152 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: with the help of tech, and it's all about cloud 153 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 1: data any I. What we do is we sit in 154 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: the middle called data management, this whole fragmentation of data, 155 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: many types of data. How do you basically help companies 156 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: understand the data, figuring out customer child supply chain, figuring 157 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: out the data governance and privacy problems, figuring out what 158 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: if analysis to run their businesses with analytics. That's what 159 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: we do in the middle. Were the only platform company 160 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: at scale running with a billion dollars subscription there are 161 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: and a cloud platform. That's what we do. How do 162 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: you say it too? I mean Paul gets this because 163 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: he ran basically a data business um when he put 164 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,559 Speaker 1: together Bloomberg Intelligence. Right, you're bringing in all the data 165 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: feeds to your analysts at a Princeton and spreading around 166 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: the world. Somebody at a dinner party maybe says, I, 167 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: you know, I don't understand the word you just said. 168 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: I heard data, and I get what data is. I 169 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: know what the cloud is kind of platform. You're sort 170 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: of losing me. What what do you do? They take 171 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: two examples. Take take something uniliver ninety six countries running 172 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: the supply chain. They want to understand they make Hellman's mayonnaise. 173 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: But how do I bring the suppliers to bring the 174 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: products to my customers as fast as I can? That's 175 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 1: a data problem. That's what we help. On the other side, rover, 176 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: how do I bring the right products on the right 177 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: shelf at the right time so I can save costs 178 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 1: by not losing money by wasted product, as well as 179 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: good customers side by getting the right project. That's the 180 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,239 Speaker 1: kind of data problems we solve on a daily basis. 181 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: Or Twitch a gaming company, how do I make sure 182 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 1: the gamers get real time understanding of what the games 183 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,319 Speaker 1: are doing. That's the kind of problems we solve. So 184 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: how are you making money then out of that? Or uh, 185 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,719 Speaker 1: you know, do you plan to be making money out 186 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:27,680 Speaker 1: of that soon. Oh well, So the thing is that 187 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 1: we have a profitable company running twenty plus points of 188 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: operating margin and cash flow. And so that's We've been 189 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: a profitable company throughout. We went private, we came out 190 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: of the privatization, we run eighty points of gross margin. 191 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: We never lost sight of we run a profitable company, 192 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 1: and you've never I'm just looking for I was looking 193 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: for a pe ratio, right, and I don't see that 194 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: because the E is still minus if you look forward. 195 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the f A function. We've got the 196 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: twentys forecast for this year, um, and ninety cents next yeah, 197 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: and ninety cents next year. So we've seen that whole 198 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 1: text space. Really this year get hammered. Your stock is 199 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:08,079 Speaker 1: not immune to that. Tell us about your business today. 200 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: What are your customers telling you. We've got rising interest rates, 201 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: we've got the threat of a recession. What are your 202 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 1: customers telling you? I think, look, no doubt there's uncertainty 203 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: out there, but customers are also figuring out that if 204 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: they don't focus on the long term mission critical transformasion, 205 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 1: they won't get out of this. A great example, by 206 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: the ways in the COVID times in April, American airlines 207 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: bet on our platform and I spoke to them like 208 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: airlines were grounded, why are not? And the goal was 209 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 1: if I don't understand my customers churned during this time, 210 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: when I come out on the other side, I'll be 211 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,439 Speaker 1: left holding the bag. They won the innovation awarded a 212 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: customer conference, so large customers are thinking like that. Yes, 213 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: there's absolute you know, elongated sales cycles across the board, 214 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: but transformation of that scale is not going to slow down. 215 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:50,199 Speaker 1: So what happened? I mean, your stock was fine high 216 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: after the I p O. You got up to almost 217 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: forty share and with everyone else at the beginning of 218 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: this year, UM investors started to sell and now your 219 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: train eating for half that? So what what happened? Do 220 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: you think, not just to you, but to the entire market. 221 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: But look, there is needless to say, a huge amount 222 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: of multiple correction you guys were talking about right, there 223 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: was obviously an all time high for across the board tech. 224 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 1: I think we got caught up from our side in 225 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: the growth at all stock kind of story. We're not 226 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: a growth at all or growth at all cost kind 227 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: of company. I do think that there is an element 228 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: of that going on. But as long as you keep 229 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 1: growing at our scale a billion dollars of subscriptions in 230 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: our mid thirties, and you keep printing cash flow and 231 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: operating margin, you will get to that. Now. Of course, 232 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: we're all sitting in this middle seeing markets change. You've 233 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 1: got to keep your eye on solving customer problems. We're 234 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: all going to come out on the other side with 235 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: things correct itself. For sure. I'm looking at my PGeo 236 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 1: functional Bloomer Traumil just shows from geography where you get 237 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: your revenue most of its outside the the U s 238 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: for you guys. Is that right? No, that's not true. 239 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: That's not true about US US. Okay, So how is 240 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: your non US business doing? Because I think about Europe, 241 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: I think about Asia with the lockdowns and all companies 242 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 1: that have to deal with those types of markets. What 243 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 1: are you saying there? Actually, Europe in Asia did pretty 244 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: fine for US so far. I think barrying FX that's 245 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 1: obviously surprising all of us. You can't control how strong 246 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:10,079 Speaker 1: the dollar is right now in terms of road demand. 247 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 1: Europe actually helped pretty well for US even last quarter. 248 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:14,559 Speaker 1: And even so, I mean, actually, I'm flying up to 249 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 1: London as we speak over at the by the end 250 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 1: of this week, we haven't seen demand for the funeral. 251 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: I'm going to figure out if I can drive into 252 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: the city of London. But it's gonna be it's gonna 253 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: be busy. It's gonna be busy. So demand hasn't slowed 254 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 1: down there. FX definitely a big headwind for all of us. 255 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 1: F X has been amazing to watch and we thought 256 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 1: it was going to turn around a little bit on Monday, 257 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:39,199 Speaker 1: but now the king dollar is back with a vengeance. 258 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 1: Does that make it easier for you or more difficult, 259 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: because the volatility actually makes up both top line obviously harder, 260 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:49,839 Speaker 1: no doubt. But we are also a very well heaped company. 261 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: We have our presence across the globe. We have a 262 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:53,719 Speaker 1: lot of opics sitting outside the U s U S 263 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 1: as well. We have a big development center in India 264 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 1: as an example. So the strong dollar helps us there. 265 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,040 Speaker 1: So what we have, the headwind on the top in 266 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: on effex becomes actually a dab on the glass side 267 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: for us. All right, I mean, thank you so much, 268 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: we appreciate it. I met Walia, CEO of Informatica, joining 269 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: us here on a Bloomberg interactor broker student getting the 270 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: update on his company. Informatica Again, I n F A 271 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:19,439 Speaker 1: H is the symbol into that software space, which has been, uh, 272 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 1: you know, such a source of growth for investors for 273 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 1: such a long time. A lot of these stocks, these 274 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: technology stocks, in addition to the market in general taking 275 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 1: on the on the gin, but certainly the technology socks 276 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: are really bearing the brunt here on this rising interest 277 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 1: rate environment. But what you've got to think about the 278 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: long term growth trends associated with tech spending a lot there. 279 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: It's gotta Robert Teter, he's head of Investment Policy and 280 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 1: Strategy group at Silvercrest Asset Management. Boy, Robert, yesterday, if 281 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: you're an head of investment policy and strategy group, everybody's 282 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 1: looking to you at the four oh one yesterday, what 283 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 1: would you tell your team? Yeah, it's a great question, 284 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: and it was a you know, did one of the 285 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 1: wildest days to the downside in a long time. I 286 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:04,959 Speaker 1: think one of the themes that we've focused on has 287 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: been something we've focused on really from the beginning of 288 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: this pandemic era, which is patients and taking some context 289 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 1: and I think, as many others have noted, yesterday's move 290 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: was really only a reversal of about one week's worth 291 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 1: of gains in the prior week, and so that's something 292 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: that we really focused in on of saying, yes, there's 293 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: been a change here. Yes, the inflation number was worse 294 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: than expected. Our work shows that inflation versus expectations is 295 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: a really critical reading for forward returns in that month 296 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: window between uh CPI readings. But overall, it really took 297 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: us back just about a week in terms of where 298 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 1: the S and P had been, And so that says 299 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: that there was a lot of optimism built into that 300 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: report didn't come through quite as planned, But I think 301 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: the CPI print wasn't quite as bad as yesterday's numbers 302 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: in isolation would have made it out to be really 303 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 1: more reversal of the prior week. So again this concept 304 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 1: of patients and sort of looking through the numbers a 305 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: little bit, things are going to take some time to 306 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: settle down. Do you think there was do you think 307 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: there were opportunities created yesterday? Or do we still need 308 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: to Harry Shilling, who normally is very conservative, He's very reserved. Um, 309 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 1: he's a he's a very polite man. I've known him 310 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: for forty eight years now. Yeah, I grew up with him. 311 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: But yesterday or no, on Monday, he said, we haven't 312 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: seen the market puke yet. And until that kind of 313 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: regurgitation happens, until um, your average investor sells his last 314 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: stock and says I'm never gonna buy one again. Um, 315 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: then you then you're not gonna see this. Um these 316 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: drops can um stop? What do you think? I think 317 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: yesterday was a pretty good indication of that. You certainly 318 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: had very high readings in terms of stocks trading down 319 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: versus up near you know, near record levels in my view, 320 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: to really firmly get into that campus feeling that we're 321 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: out of the woods. Um, it will take another two 322 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: to three solid prints on cp I. Again, I don't 323 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: think yesterday was quite as bad as it seemed, but 324 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: it sort of resets the clock a little bit in 325 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: terms of expectations. And I think CPI inflation really is 326 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: the mos critical indicator on the on the short term outlook. UM. 327 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: I think as we think ahead to two next year 328 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: and things like that, earnings are a bit more important. 329 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: But in the short term it's all about inflation here 330 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: and all about that process of forward rates. We think 331 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: there's a really strong relationship between the forward rate curve 332 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: and expectations on the terminal rate versus how the market 333 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: has been trading in the short term, and that's something 334 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: that we've got a very close eye on as as 335 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 1: we look at these these interim periods in between CPI readings, 336 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: which really have become the most important metric in the 337 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: markets in the short term. How about valuation, I'm an 338 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: old equities analyst. How do you guys think about valuation 339 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: in this market right here, particularly after yesterday's sell off. 340 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 1: I know a lot of people still have earnings concerns, uh, 341 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: you know, the back half of this year going into 342 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 1: early next year. What's the valuation call for you guys? 343 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: And do you do you care more about price book 344 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: or price sales than price earnings? What are the metrics 345 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: that you care about? Yes, so I focus mostly on 346 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 1: price earnings and thinking about forward earnings at this point. 347 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: Starting to think about earnings for next year, I think 348 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: consensus is a round plus seven or eight percent or so. 349 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: We're probably more in the camp of about five percent 350 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,880 Speaker 1: up on earnings, just thinking that there's still some lingering 351 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: problems here that the markets are fighting through and there's 352 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: still certainly some downward pressure to come on the economy 353 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 1: because of the rate cycle, but purely in terms of 354 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: of pees, peas have come down quite a bit, so uh, 355 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 1: in terms of next year's earnings on consensus forecast s andps, 356 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: it's just a little bit over sixteen times, which is 357 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 1: pretty compelling, even with rates headed a bit higher. So 358 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: you know, we and others have done a lot of 359 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: work on historical rates versus p s, and if you 360 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: take the FED at their words, take the forward curve, 361 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 1: it it's in its word, and say that the terminal 362 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: rate will settle in somewhere maybe four in a quarter 363 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: or something like that. Um that implies a PE of 364 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 1: around eighteen. So we think a little bit of progress 365 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: on earnings in the next year, a little bit of 366 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: recovery evaluation as you get some stabilization, and c p 367 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: I sort of sets the backdrop for again this patient, 368 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: longer term outlook of some decent returns to be had 369 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: over the next year or two. All right, Robert, thank 370 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,160 Speaker 1: you so much. We appreciate it as always. Robert Teeter, 371 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 1: head of Investment Policy and Strategy about Silver Crest Asset Management, 372 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 1: got his undergraduate economic Stree from Bucknell. Do you know 373 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: the mascot for Bucknell. M this is a bear. It 374 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 1: is Bucky the Bison. Oh it's a bison. Yes, well 375 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 1: that's pretty pretty close. Pretty close. Yes, so it's not 376 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: the University of Richmond spiders, but the bison is pretty cool. 377 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: Spiders are unique. My favorite has to be the banana slug, 378 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 1: which I think Santa Barbara or Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, 379 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 1: Santa Santa CRUs. Banana slugs just awesome. Apparently there is 380 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: a thing bananas. Sure, sure, I guess you can't find 381 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: it and they can live through a lot. Just don't 382 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: put any salt on them. No, okay, good stuff. That 383 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: would so emerge. Thing the kids were talking about the 384 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 1: merge emerged for me is doing a deal and acquisitions. 385 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: But that's what I'm talking about, is it? Well, it 386 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: is a deal if you're wealthy crypto person who's going 387 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: to be staking and taking this network. So basically Ethereum, 388 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:02,120 Speaker 1: which is kind of the all so ran cryptocurrency after 389 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: Bitcoin obviously, which is the o G, is going to 390 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: move from proof of work mining, which the kids are 391 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: very unhappy about how much energy it uses to proof 392 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,640 Speaker 1: of steak mining, and then the energy uses just going 393 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 1: to drop point nine percent. I've been told UM to 394 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:23,879 Speaker 1: verify a transaction so that means each transaction, instead of 395 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 1: taking instead of using the energy it takes to run 396 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 1: a house for a week, it will use the energy 397 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 1: it takes to boil a kettle of tea. Katie Gretfeld 398 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 1: joins us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. She's a 399 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: cross asset reporter. Is what Matt said remotely accurate? No, 400 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: he got it right that he got all the headlines 401 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: in there. Moving from proof of work to proof of 402 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: steak miners kind of become obsolete and the big number 403 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: there drop in energy usage. That's what people are very 404 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: excited about. Of course, Bitcoin has come under so much 405 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: scrutiny from lawmakers and regulator to about how much energy 406 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 1: mining takes up those very powerful computers. So the merge 407 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 1: has been in work, in the works. It's been talked 408 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: about for seven years, and Uh, it could actually been 409 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:16,920 Speaker 1: happy be happening tonight. Uh it's been deleted several times 410 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 1: because I thought it happened a couple of days ago. No, 411 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: we have an actual time, right, it's gonna be it's 412 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: like ten hours from now or something. Countdown clock. We 413 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:29,919 Speaker 1: needed emerge countdown below the countdown to the clothes. Okay, exactly. 414 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,199 Speaker 1: So I mean does that make Ethereum in theory the 415 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 1: preferred cryptocurrency over Bitcoin. Well, they have different uses, is 416 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: what people would say, people who aren't Bitcoin maximalists, of 417 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: which there are a few, So bitcoin like mat just 418 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,239 Speaker 1: look at the market. The market. You know, money talks, right, Oh, 419 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 1: I heard that? Okay, bitcoine, follow the money there. There 420 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 1: is something like four billion dollars worth of bitcoin out there, 421 00:20:57,920 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 1: but the hope is at least half that. And if 422 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: you're in ether, boll the flippening is going to come 423 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 1: and Ether will replace the flippening. What the flippening? You've 424 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: got to add that to your don't you read coins 425 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: and cat cats, cats and coins. That's my secret weekend 426 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: distribution list I can addue to. But so, but if 427 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: you also follow the money and look at where money 428 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 1: has been moving since mid June, Ether is up about 429 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: bitcoin is remember when it was going to four thousand 430 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 1: the actual price per coin. But Ether has been rallying 431 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: much more than put bitcoin in anticipation of this merge, 432 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,919 Speaker 1: thinking that developer. Developers will flock here. It's going to 433 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:44,120 Speaker 1: be a faster, cheaper network than Bitcoin, which, as Matt 434 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,400 Speaker 1: Riley points out, is the biggest cryptocurrency out there right now. So, 435 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: I mean, I've just been watching over the last few 436 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 1: so the merge is something, Paul that keeps happening, or 437 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: it's gonna happen and it's delayed, it's gonna happen, and 438 00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: it's now we're there, it's act really going to happen, 439 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,880 Speaker 1: and so I've been watching the price of Ether like, oh, 440 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 1: if it's really going to happen, now, it's going to 441 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: take off because you want to get in before, right theoretically, 442 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,400 Speaker 1: So the price of Ether just keeps going down. Well, 443 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 1: my friend in colleague, Vildonna Hirik, had a great story. 444 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: I think it was last week or earlier this week, 445 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: or at least this month. So if you look at 446 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,239 Speaker 1: what the derivatives market is pricing, most crypto traders are 447 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: actually shorting Ether right now the derivative So it could 448 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: turn into a sell the news event to your point, 449 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:36,160 Speaker 1: because markets ever forward looking, and this has been anticipated 450 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: for a long time. Sure it's been delayed over and 451 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,360 Speaker 1: over again, but now that we're finally now you say 452 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: traders have been shorting either, Are these just lonely guys 453 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: in their mother's basements. It's not the trading desk of 454 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 1: JP Morgan shorting. It's not Petch funds. It's that kk R. 455 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: I mean, you know point seventy two shorting it? Well, 456 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: it's it's it's almost at that level. About the brilliant 457 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 1: traders that worked Jane Street and now are billionaires in 458 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 1: f t X, right, I mean Sam Bankman Freed started 459 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 1: out that way, and there's a great story on the 460 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,360 Speaker 1: terminal about his other operation as well. I think it's 461 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: called Alan Meta. Is how you pronounce this his market 462 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: making firm? True? That this is just this is how 463 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: they make money. So there are a lot of I mean, 464 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 1: he may, honestly, Sam Bankman Freed maybe in his parents basement, 465 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: but he's a genius who has billions of dollars worth 466 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,399 Speaker 1: of wealth. So all right, that talks to me. In 467 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 1: any case, It'll be interesting to see how ETHER reacts 468 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: to this. It will be interesting to see how there 469 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 1: are a number of UH spinoffs or original ether you 470 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,160 Speaker 1: know that that are gonna continue on proof of work. 471 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: There um people who don't buy into They think proof 472 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: of stake is a POS. And it'll be interesting to 473 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 1: see if those make more money than ether now and 474 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,479 Speaker 1: to see what happens to the o G to bitcoin. 475 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,479 Speaker 1: I know it will be interesting and something I need 476 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,400 Speaker 1: to look into, Matt is there's a bunch of ether 477 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: extiane treated products in Europe that actually hold ether. I 478 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 1: need to look into how they're handling the merge because 479 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 1: we do also have an ef We have an e 480 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 1: t Can you do an e t F on ether? 481 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: You can't in the US. Many would like to, but 482 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 1: the sec that allowed physically back right, And the e 483 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: t F on bitcoin is only the futures of bitcoin, 484 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: only on future, not on the underlying in America, and 485 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: there are bitcoin e t fs in Canada and uh yeah, 486 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,880 Speaker 1: perspective as we do as we do at Bloomberg. Yes, 487 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,919 Speaker 1: I just saw a hundred and sixty four offices and 488 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:41,880 Speaker 1: seventy four countries. I was just walking on a floor 489 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,360 Speaker 1: that had that up on the terminal. You're a widespread everywhere, 490 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: I mean, just out of control there. I was telling 491 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 1: some kids from Duke this morning. There's no more global 492 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: company that I've ever worked for. And that's including JP 493 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: Morgan and City more global than Bloomberg Just incredible. Craty 494 00:24:56,119 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: Greifeld talking about global cross asset reporter for Bloomberg News, 495 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. We 496 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 1: have a looming railroad strike. Um, and I think it's 497 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: a big issue because it affects so much of the 498 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 1: economy in the US. I mean, you think about it. 499 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: I mean we're just kind of seeing some light at 500 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 1: the end of the tunnel from the supply chain issues 501 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 1: associated with the pandemic and now potentially have a rail 502 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: strike on the freight and that could be a big 503 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: issue across a number of verticals there. So let's bring 504 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 1: Kim Chipment. She's reporter. She covers agricultural, food, water and 505 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 1: fuel for Bloomberg News. Can just give us the update 506 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: on kind of where we are with this potential strike 507 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 1: and and what are the insiders saying how it might 508 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 1: play out? Um? Sure, well we know, um, you know 509 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:54,199 Speaker 1: at this point President Biden's gotten personally involved. There was 510 00:25:55,680 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: uh meeting this morning try you know that. Of course, 511 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 1: you know, everyone's point out all the stubs, you know, 512 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 1: trying to make sure that it doesn't happen. Uh. But 513 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: but right now, we really don't have an indication of 514 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 1: which way it's it's likely to go. Um. You already 515 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 1: have the railroads. Uh you know it's now it's been 516 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: a couple of days since we've heard that long distance 517 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 1: distance passenger route UM in some cases are being cut 518 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:32,479 Speaker 1: and rail railroads. UM. Starting today, we'll stop picking up 519 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 1: UM items like brain. This is a big I mean, Kim, 520 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: this is the big issue. I mean, I think you know. 521 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,440 Speaker 1: One of the issues agriculture. I was I wasn't really 522 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: aware of how much agricultural stuff actually travels by rail. 523 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 1: So what's the farmers to do? This is harvesting. Also, 524 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: let's just back up a second, because my understanding is 525 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,199 Speaker 1: that there are many different railroads, many different kinds of 526 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 1: train system ums, with many different purposes. Um. You've got Amtrak, 527 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 1: for example, which people take to go back and forth 528 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,399 Speaker 1: from Boston to Washington, d C. And maybe stop in 529 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 1: New York, right, and then you've got um, you know, 530 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 1: grain shipments out of the Midwest. You've got freight moving 531 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 1: trucks around for GM and Toyota. Are these are all 532 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 1: of these railroads using workers from one union or what's 533 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 1: the deal can can one strike derail so to speak, 534 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:34,959 Speaker 1: all of these businesses, well for what you brought up 535 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 1: Amtrak and the and the issue for passenger rail and 536 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:42,120 Speaker 1: also and then for some commuter rail um like out 537 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 1: of like like the Metro North or Long Island Railroad. Right, 538 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 1: although it is important to say that there's no indication 539 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: that those would be affected those particular ones, although outside 540 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 1: of Washington, d C. In Virginia and Maryland there are 541 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:59,640 Speaker 1: two that definitely would be affected. Los Angeles Chicago commuter 542 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 1: line definitely would be affected. And the reason for that, 543 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 1: and also in the reason for some of these Amtrak 544 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: passenger rail cuts is uh, for the long distance throughout 545 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 1: I will probably see more announcements on that today. Um. 546 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 1: That's because they either share a line with the freight 547 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 1: um say, their share lines with with the freight railroads 548 00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,879 Speaker 1: or there or there's some kind of other overlaps where 549 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 1: they wouldn't have access anymore. So it's not that that's 550 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 1: not really a worker issue, that's a that's a real 551 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 1: line issue. Is there is there an indication that this 552 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: is going to go down to the wire to Friday 553 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 1: in terms of negotiating this or is there sense that 554 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,960 Speaker 1: maybe you know, the president will step in. We've seen 555 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 1: it in the past with other whether it's the airlines 556 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 1: and kind of really pushed the two parties together. I mean, 557 00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: it's Wednesday here, So what's the inside thinking there? Well, 558 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 1: I do think, uh, there's a decent chance it's going 559 00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 1: to go right down to the wire. I mean some 560 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 1: people think, you know, we could even have you know, 561 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 1: a strike uh that lasts you know, half a day, 562 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 1: a couple of days. Uh. At this point, it's you know, 563 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:13,960 Speaker 1: most people with the mid term elections coming up and uh, 564 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: and just the hit that it would take to the 565 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 1: to the US economy. I mean that the estimate is 566 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 1: over two billion a day. Uh. You know, the likelihood 567 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: of the prospect of a prolonged strike is hard hard 568 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 1: to imagine. But it's we are you know it could 569 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 1: happen because we don't really know. I mean I'll say, 570 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 1: you know, like, um, you know you brought up agriculture, 571 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 1: uh wheat farmers for example, Um, and you have spring wheat. 572 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,880 Speaker 1: That's just you know, finishing up harvest. Um. You know 573 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 1: that that'sn't that's they have very few options other than rails, 574 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 1: and that's the that's the case where most of that 575 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 1: the bulk of that UM for the biggest market is Mexico. 576 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 1: Most of goes um by rail, So that's where you 577 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 1: can't get all right, you just can't get the grains there, 578 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 1: all right, Kim, we'll stay on top of this story. 579 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:14,719 Speaker 1: We appreciate your reporting. Kim Chipman reporters Whip Covers, agg Food, water, Fuel, 580 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: based out of the Chicago office for Bloomberg News. Thanks 581 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:23,719 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 582 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast 583 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:31,080 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at 584 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. Put on false Sweeney I'm on Twitter at 585 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can always catch us 586 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.