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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.

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Speaker 1: We are onto the divisional round and we've got.

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Speaker 2: A special episode.

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Speaker 1: First, we are going to be giving some of our

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Speaker 1: best bets with Greg Smith, co founder of two qbs

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Speaker 1: dot com and a contributor over at four for four

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Speaker 1: dot com. And then we're going to end by checking

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Speaker 1: in on some weather concerns for this weekend with Kevin

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Speaker 1: Roth from Roder Grinders. But we're going to start with Greg,

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Speaker 1: who you can find over on Twitter at Greg Sauce.

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Speaker 1: This is the first time he and I have spoken

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Speaker 1: since he vanquished me in the Fantasy Kicker accuracy competition.

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Speaker 1: We are putting aside our feud for this one show

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Speaker 1: and this one show only.

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Speaker 2: Greg. How you doing.

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Speaker 3: I'm doing great. I feel very honored to be back

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Speaker 3: on I figure you were going to ghost me after

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Speaker 3: I dispatched you in the kicker competition. And let's be real,

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Speaker 3: let's the only accuracy that matters, right is kicker accuracy.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I mean the fact that I was the seventh

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Speaker 1: most accurate fantasy ranker. This whole entire year is meaningless.

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Speaker 1: It is pure kicker where you were first and I

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Speaker 1: was third. But we're gonna get past it now. You

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Speaker 1: obviously have a little bit. Yeah, I'm gonna defer to

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Speaker 1: you on all your picks because if you know kickers,

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Speaker 1: then you know gambling.

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Speaker 2: That's what we know.

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Speaker 1: But we're going to be giving our three best bets

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Speaker 1: for the weekend, a pick to avoid, and then our

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Speaker 1: favorite player prop as we always do on the show.

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Speaker 1: But first again, as we always do, let's quickly check

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Speaker 1: in with how things went last week.

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Speaker 2: Matt Perrault had.

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Speaker 1: Himself a very, very solid week. He hit on the

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Speaker 1: Texans lank two and a half to the Bills, the

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Speaker 1: Pats and the Titans under forty four and a half

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Speaker 1: and his top prop of Ryan Tannehill under eighteen and

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Speaker 1: a half completions. His only miss was on the Eagles

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Speaker 1: lane one and a half to the Seahawks. Obviously, there

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Speaker 1: were a few extenuating circumstances that could have impacted that,

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Speaker 1: like the Carson Wentz injury, so we can give them

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Speaker 1: pass there. As for me, I also hit in the

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Speaker 1: pass and the Titans under forty four and a half,

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Speaker 1: and I hit on the Seahawks and the Eagles under

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Speaker 1: forty five and a half, but I missed on my

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Speaker 1: top prop of Julian Edelman over sixty four and a

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Speaker 1: half yards, and I lost on my two team teaser

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Speaker 1: of the Bills plus nine and the Saints laying one

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Speaker 1: and a half. I am still very irked about that

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Speaker 1: last one. Anyway, some tough spreads this week, but Greg's

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Speaker 1: all over it, so I'm gonna let him get started.

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Speaker 1: What is your number one pick to start us off

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Speaker 1: on pick six?

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Speaker 3: So I have a really hard time with the lines

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Speaker 3: this week. You're exactly right in stating how tough these

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Speaker 3: spreads are to figure out, especially with these big ones

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Speaker 3: in the AFC. And when I look at Kansas City,

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Speaker 3: when I look at Baltimore, I almost want to tie

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Speaker 3: the two together as two best bets, you know, stacked

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Speaker 3: in a parlay. I'd rather just bet the money line

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Speaker 3: parlays than the spreads in these contests. But with that said,

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Speaker 3: let me make the case for Chiefs minus nine and

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Speaker 3: a half. Houston probably shouldn't have made it this far

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Speaker 3: in the first place, but they had the good fortune

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Speaker 3: of facing Josh Allen and the wild card rent in

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Speaker 3: the wildcard round. The Texans rank twenty third in Football

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Speaker 3: Outsiders Way to DVA at the regular season's end, which

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Speaker 3: is by far the worst of all the playoff teams.

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Speaker 3: Now they're leaving the Dome in Houston to go on

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Speaker 3: the road to face way to dvoa's third best team

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Speaker 3: outdoors in a notoriously tough place to play. Oh and

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Speaker 3: that Chiefs team also has had an extra week of

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Speaker 3: rest to prepare for this game. So honestly, I don't

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Speaker 3: even know if Kansas City needed the buy to be

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Speaker 3: my pick in this contest, because they have all sorts

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Speaker 3: of other advantages in the matchup. The Texans have a

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Speaker 3: bottom seven defense, while the Chiefs have a top five offense.

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Speaker 3: Houston has the third worst pass rush according to Football

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Speaker 3: Outsiders of justin sacrate, while Kansas City's offensive line is

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Speaker 3: the fourth best at limiting pressure in the same metric.

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Speaker 3: And if you thought the O line problems were bad

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Speaker 3: for Deshaun Watson last week against Buffalo, they could be

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Speaker 3: even worse this week against the chiefs tenth ranked d line.

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Speaker 3: The only advantage that Houston has on paper is with

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Speaker 3: their rushing offense, where they rank eleventh of DVA and

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Speaker 3: the Kansas City defense ranks twenty ninth. But I just

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Speaker 3: don't know how much the ten Exs can even expect

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Speaker 3: to run the ball. If the Chiefs offense is moving

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Speaker 3: the ball and scoring, it will when they're on offense.

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Speaker 3: So in the end, I'm okay laying the nine and

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Speaker 3: a half points with Kansas City because I think their

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Speaker 3: defense has a really good chance to create points off

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Speaker 3: turnovers in this game, whether you know a defensive score

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Speaker 3: or just a short field for Patrick Mahomes and company.

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Speaker 3: But if you have some fear of a backdoor cover

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Speaker 3: here thanks to you know the brilliance of Deshaun Watson,

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Speaker 3: and I wouldn't blame you. He's a great quarterback, I

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Speaker 3: would recommend just to pivot to the money line. I

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Speaker 3: think this is ultimately a huge mismatch and I don't

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Speaker 3: see the Chiefs losing, so I'd be okay with the

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Speaker 3: money line here. But because I think the matchup is

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Speaker 3: so disparate, I don't mind laying the wood with Kansas

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Speaker 3: City at minus nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: So I'm.

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Speaker 1: I'm almost in complete agreement with everything that you said.

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Speaker 1: I don't love the Chiefs laying nine and a half

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Speaker 1: because it's too worrisome for me for the back door cover,

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Speaker 1: but I would take them if I have to pick

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Speaker 1: a side on this game. The money line, by the way,

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Speaker 1: right now, just to be clear, is that Chiefs minus

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Speaker 1: four fifty five. So you're obviously laying a lout, which

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Speaker 1: is understandable given the big spread. But everything that you

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Speaker 1: said I essentially completely agree with, and I'm just gonna

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Speaker 1: go right into my first pick because it goes along

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Speaker 1: with that. And that's actually the under on this game,

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Speaker 1: which is Chiefs Texans under fifty one. Now that's actually

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Speaker 1: been trending up, and I want to make it clear,

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Speaker 1: this is the only traditional line that I'm taking this

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Speaker 1: week because I completely.

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Speaker 2: Agree with you. I hate them. The spreads are very

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Speaker 2: very difficult. I could see the.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs winning by twenty one points in this game, but

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Speaker 1: it's not something that I feel comfortabout with these giant numbers.

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Speaker 1: So this is the only traditional bet I'm going to

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Speaker 1: be making, which is the Chiefs Texans under fifty one.

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Speaker 1: This is a number that has actually been moving up

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Speaker 1: all week. I think it was around forty eight forty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half or something when it opened. I

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Speaker 1: get it, honestly. Both teams play incredibly fast. They're both

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Speaker 1: capable of having a ton of explosive plays. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: the problems with the Houston defense. For sure, the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: have actually been under though in the total in five

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Speaker 1: of their last six games, and I think there's a

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Speaker 1: reason for that. The first is that their past defense

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Speaker 1: has quietly improved pretty dramatically as the season has gone along.

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Speaker 1: Steve Spagnolo, he's done a really good job. He's called

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Speaker 1: more blitz as they've gotten healthier, and I think it

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Speaker 1: just took the defense a little while to get used

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Speaker 1: to the new scheme. You know that happens with teams

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Speaker 1: when they're introduced like that. It takes them sometimes half

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Speaker 1: a season to really get going. Fifty one is a

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Speaker 1: key number with totals. It's going to be fast, and

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Speaker 1: as I said, both teams are explosive. But I really

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Speaker 1: really like how the pass defense has kind of worked.

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Speaker 1: They're sixth right now in passing defense DVOA and again

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Speaker 1: they're just twenty ninth against the rush, which you said,

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Speaker 1: so really, you know, you could see the Texans leaning

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Speaker 1: more in the ground game, like they did in that

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Speaker 1: first meeting, and that's going to trend towards the under Now.

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Speaker 1: I will say the one thing that makes me a

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Speaker 1: little worried about it is that, you know, Thornhill is

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Speaker 1: out and that's a pretty big loss for the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: secondary But you know, at least in the short term

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Speaker 1: in the second half and Week seventeen, you saw how

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Speaker 1: they kind of coped with that. They played a lot

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Speaker 1: of cover two. They just tried to keep the explosive

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Speaker 1: plays down, and I think that's what they're going to

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Speaker 1: try to do, or they going to try to limit

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Speaker 1: the explosive plays, make the Texans grind out these long drives,

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Speaker 1: which they can do possibly on the ground, but again,

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Speaker 1: that's gonna eat up the clock. And even though the

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Speaker 1: Texans defense isn't great, as we talked about, I don't

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Speaker 1: think we're gonna see this crazy Patrick Mahomes just going

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Speaker 1: nuts the entire time in the second half of the season.

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Speaker 1: He kind of really held it in check with Damian

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Speaker 1: Williams back. I think they feel they can run the

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Speaker 1: ball well, they're gonna utilize him, and I mentioned this

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Speaker 1: on Monday's show. The Texans lead the league in fall

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Speaker 1: Star penalties by a wide margin. I'm sure that's not

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Speaker 1: gonna get any better in Arrowhead, where it's going to

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Speaker 1: be insane and how loud it is. So I see

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Speaker 1: them really having trouble scoring. So that's really the first reason.

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Speaker 1: The second is that I think with the Chiefs, even

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Speaker 1: if they get way out ahead, they're gonna get a

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Speaker 1: little conservative. That's what they've been tending to do lately

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Speaker 1: in games. They get ahead and then they just kind

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Speaker 1: of get conservative with the lead. And I think that Williams,

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Speaker 1: you know, coming back, that's who they want to rely on.

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Speaker 1: They've been, you know, whatever the reason for Lashaw McCoy,

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Speaker 1: whether they don't trust them or whether they really are

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Speaker 1: just kind of keeping him in reserve, I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to lean a little more on their running game.

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Speaker 1: So I could see the Chiefs getting out to a

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Speaker 1: lead going conservative here. Fifty one is a pretty big

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Speaker 1: number I want. I would love it if it got

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Speaker 1: to fifty one and a half, because again, fifty one

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Speaker 1: is kind of that key number. But for me, I

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Speaker 1: see the game a lot kind of like you do.

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Speaker 1: I could see the Chiefs putting up a ton of points,

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Speaker 1: but other than Deshaun Watson going nuts. It's hard for

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Speaker 1: me to see the number getting too big, so I

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Speaker 1: will lean with the underhare at fifty one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it. I think it's probably the smart

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Speaker 3: play in terms of over or under on a total

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Speaker 3: of fifty or fifty one. But I do have this

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Speaker 3: fear in the back of my mind that one, these

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Speaker 3: teams both play with a pretty high pace. I think

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Speaker 3: they both rank in the top half of situation neutral

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Speaker 3: pace according to Football Outsiders. And two, what if the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs offense does just go nuclear and they put up

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Speaker 3: a ton of points on their own and all Deshaun

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Speaker 3: Watson has to do is score twenty to hit the over.

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Speaker 3: You know what I mean? We could see under present. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: like a thirty one to twenty one game, And that's

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Speaker 3: why I would probably stay away at this number. My

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Speaker 3: initial reaction when I first saw the line, I think

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Speaker 3: it was at fifty, and I know it was lower

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Speaker 3: before that, but I was inclined to take the over

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Speaker 3: at first. And the more I've thought about it, the

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Speaker 3: more I think it's a stay away, and the more

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Speaker 3: I would I believe that the under is the smarter

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Speaker 3: or sharper bet. I think there's something to be said

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Speaker 3: about these winter games. And I know that weather coldness

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Speaker 3: doesn't necessarily play a huge factor into these lines as

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Speaker 3: much as we would want to think at least, but

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Speaker 3: there's something to be said about teams getting more conservative

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Speaker 3: in these winter months. And I think that that's the

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Speaker 3: key point that you made about the Chiefs is when

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Speaker 3: they've gotten up in recent weeks, they've kind of taken

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Speaker 3: their foot off the gas a little bit, whether that's

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Speaker 3: to protect Patrick Mahomes or whatever else, or whatever other

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Speaker 3: reasons they have. I think that we do need to

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Speaker 3: read into that, and we need to kind of fade

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Speaker 3: that public inclination to go over on games, because that's

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Speaker 3: what people want to root for too, and there's some

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Speaker 3: public betting nature that we have to keep in mind

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Speaker 3: with these lines as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, generally I liked go unders because you know, these

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Speaker 1: over unders are designed for you know, people want to

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Speaker 1: bet the over. That's what people like to do, so

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Speaker 1: they're designed with that in mind, understanding that the vast

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Speaker 1: majority of public is going to come in on the over.

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Speaker 1: I will say that I when I first looked at

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Speaker 1: the line on Monday, I agree it might have been

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Speaker 1: at fifty when I first looked at it, then I

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Speaker 1: know it was opened at forty eight or forty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. I also liked the over, but when

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Speaker 1: I dug into it, one hundred percent agree with you.

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Speaker 1: There is that risk that they're just gonna come out

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Speaker 1: they and part of the reason they could have been

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Speaker 1: conservative in recent weeks is because they may be just

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Speaker 1: holding it back for the playoffs, right, and then they're

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Speaker 1: just going to explode at this point and let it

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Speaker 1: all go. Certainly a possibility. It's possible that the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: come out and they put up twenty one points or

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Speaker 1: something like that immediately. So it's certainly possible that it

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Speaker 1: goes over. But in the end, this is legitimately the

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Speaker 1: This is how bad this week is. This is the

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Speaker 1: line that I feel the most confident in if you're

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Speaker 1: taking a traditional line right now, because this is a

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Speaker 1: tough week, as we talked about. So why don't we

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Speaker 1: move on here to your second bet?

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Speaker 2: What do you have?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I kind of tease this a little bit,

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Speaker 3: but I'm gonna go with Baltimore. And as good as

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Speaker 3: Kansas City has been, the Ravens have been even better.

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Speaker 3: They're the best team according to DVA and they rate

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Speaker 3: even better and waited DV away, which accounts for recent

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Speaker 3: performance a little more heavily. Meanwhile, Tennessee has been coming

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Speaker 3: on strong on the stretch, has evidence by their jump

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Speaker 3: up from ninth and DVA to fifth in wait to DVA.

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Speaker 3: But they're just not on the same level as the

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Speaker 3: Ravens in my mind. But because the Titans knocked off

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Speaker 3: the mighty or should perhaps I should say once mighty Patriots,

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Speaker 3: I think that there's some recency bias influencing the perception

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Speaker 3: of exactly how good Tennessee is, at least relative to Baltimore.

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Speaker 3: And Meanwhile, after I called for Ryan Tannehill to get

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Speaker 3: exposed week after week in the regular season from like

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Speaker 3: a fantasy perspective, it finally happened against New England and

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Speaker 3: the wild card round. And I don't expect Tannehill to

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Speaker 3: look much better against Baltimore's fourth ranked pass defense here

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Speaker 3: in the divisional round. Now, with that said, Tennessee's offense

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Speaker 3: is built around Derek Henry, not Ryan Tannehill, and their

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Speaker 3: running game matchup does look pretty decent against Baltimore. The

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Speaker 3: Titans rushing offense ranks fifth and DV away, while the

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Speaker 3: Ravens rushing defense ranks night, but I have similar game

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Speaker 3: script concerns for Tennessee's rushing attack as I did with Houston's.

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Speaker 3: If Baltimore puts up points like they have done all

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Speaker 3: season to the tune of thirty two point two points

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Speaker 3: per game, the Titans could have a tough time committing

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Speaker 3: to the ground game. Still, Tennessee's defense is also a

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Speaker 3: strength much better than Houston's against Kansas City. So I

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Speaker 3: think this matchup between the Titans and Ravens feels like

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Speaker 3: it could be a lot closer overall. And on that note,

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Speaker 3: I'm much more inclined in this matchup that'ear toward the

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Speaker 3: money line than laying the points with Baltimore. Now, I

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Speaker 3: would lay the points with the Ravens if forced to

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Speaker 3: make a pick, but in the end, I think my

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Speaker 3: favorite bet with these AFC matchups is just a partlay

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Speaker 3: the money lines with Casey and Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I hear again the same odds on the

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Speaker 1: money line for the Ravens as the teams, considering they're

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Speaker 1: both nine and a half, right, it's minus four fifty

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Speaker 1: five if you parlay them. And again we don't have

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Speaker 1: this showing right here. I don't believe on betting bros

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Speaker 1: dot Com, but I looked it up just on what

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Speaker 1: it would be on DraftKings, for example, and it's minus

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Speaker 1: one ninety. So I mean that's obvious. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: still a big number there that you're laying with the juice.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, it's really difficult to see either one

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Speaker 1: of these teams losing on the money line, right, It's

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Speaker 1: almost impossible to see it. So yeah, I think you

305
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Speaker 1: make a lot of good concerns. I'm gonna talk about

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Speaker 1: probably a lot of the stuff that you were talking

307
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Speaker 1: about there as I make a couple of future picks.

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Speaker 1: So for me, I've got no problem with it. Again,

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Speaker 1: like you, if I'm forced to pick a side given

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Speaker 1: the spread, I'm gonna take the Ravens just because I

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Speaker 1: could see a scenario very easily here where the Ravens

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Speaker 1: win this game by twenty five points, right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: their offense looks completely unstoppable at this point. The Titans

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Speaker 1: aren't great against tight end, so that it certainly could

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Speaker 1: be something, but realistically it's just something where you know,

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Speaker 1: on the money line is somewhere with these big spreads

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Speaker 1: where I feel a lot more comfortable. All Right, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to move on to my second pick here, and

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Speaker 1: that's actually going to be a little unconventional, and I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna stick with the Chiefs and the Texans.

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Speaker 2: It's really the game that I feel.

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Speaker 1: Kind of the most confident in how I see it

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Speaker 1: playing out, and I'm actually.

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Speaker 2: Gonna go with the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: In the first half, they are laying five and a

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Speaker 1: half and that's at minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 2: So I said a lot of this earlier.

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Speaker 1: I do not see the Texans being able to put

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Speaker 1: up a ton of points in this game. If they

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Speaker 1: are able to do that, I expect it to be

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Speaker 1: more of a late Deshaun Watson running around with his

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Speaker 1: hair on fire figuring out how to do it, kind

333
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,920
Speaker 1: of like they did against the Bills. So I'm sure

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Speaker 1: a lot of people have seen this sat already because

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Speaker 1: it's been talked about quite a bit. But Bill O'Brien

336
00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 1: and Deshaun Watson have been outscored thirty four to nothing

337
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Speaker 1: in the first half of playoff games. I don't really

338
00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,560
Speaker 1: think that's a fluke. I think that's because Bill O'Brien

339
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,480
Speaker 1: is just not a very good coach and really the

340
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Speaker 1: only reason they score in these games is because Watson

341
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Speaker 1: is such a playmaker. You've got Andy Reid who is

342
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Speaker 1: coming off a buye. We know what that's like. I

343
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Speaker 1: think the Chiefs are probably gonna lead pretty comfortably here

344
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Speaker 1: in the first half. As I said, I don't love

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Speaker 1: nine and a half in this game. If I was

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Speaker 1: forced to choose, I would take it because the backdoor

347
00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,840
Speaker 1: cover looms too large for me to really really like it.

348
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Speaker 1: But when you're in the first half, I see them

349
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Speaker 1: going into the locker room up by at least a

350
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,560
Speaker 1: touch on in this game, I think they're probably gonna

351
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Speaker 1: score on a couple of you know, their first three

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Speaker 1: opening drives. I can see them easily scoring on at

353
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Speaker 1: least two of them. And again, it's just the Texans

354
00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:23,720
Speaker 1: are coming off this game. I think it's gonna take

355
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,480
Speaker 1: them a little while to get going. Will Fuller is

356
00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 1: a question mark here. He may play that you know

357
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,760
Speaker 1: that makes me a little less confident in it. But overall,

358
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 1: it's not rocket science here. It's the fact that the

359
00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,360
Speaker 1: Texans are slow starters in the first half. The fact

360
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,840
Speaker 1: that they could cover this line really, to me, is

361
00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:44,600
Speaker 1: gonna be when the Chiefs get conservative in the second

362
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Speaker 1: half and Deshau Watson goes nuts. So for me, I

363
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Speaker 1: will take the Chiefs laying five and a half at

364
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Speaker 1: the first half at minus one twenty five.

365
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Speaker 3: I almost like this more than the nine and a

366
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,560
Speaker 3: half spread for the whole game, because you're right, this

367
00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,880
Speaker 3: has been the mo for the Texans all season, is

368
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,320
Speaker 3: they out flat and then Deshaun Watson pulls rabbits out

369
00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:05,560
Speaker 3: of his hat in the second half to make games competitive.

370
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Speaker 3: So I'm with you one hundred percent. I really like

371
00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 3: this that I'm a little jealous of it, to be honest.

372
00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:12,560
Speaker 3: I like it more than the nine and a half bet,

373
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Speaker 3: or even maybe not the money line, but I think

374
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Speaker 3: that that's still a safer call just because, like we

375
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Speaker 3: have discussed at nauseam to this point, is don't see

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs losing this game. Yeah, but if you like

377
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 3: nine and a half, which we both did. We both

378
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,360
Speaker 3: said that if we had to pick for the entire game,

379
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:27,880
Speaker 3: that would be the pick we would make, is Casey

380
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,720
Speaker 3: laying nine and a half. If we like that, I

381
00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,480
Speaker 3: think it's very reasonable to like the first half line

382
00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:34,960
Speaker 3: of what would you say, five and a half?

383
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:36,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's five and a half. So it's obviously, you know,

384
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 1: a little bigger than the total you know for the game,

385
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 1: because that's four points in the second half. But overall, yeah,

386
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,000
Speaker 1: that's really where I feel comforted. Like I do think

387
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:46,760
Speaker 1: I have the feeling that the Chiefs are really going

388
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:48,840
Speaker 1: to win this pretty handily and be able to cover

389
00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 1: the spread. But it's such a big number and it's

390
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,760
Speaker 1: so risky. I feel like when you have a guy

391
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Speaker 1: like Watson who's able to just you know, go crazy

392
00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,800
Speaker 1: and run around like nuts, and you know, if the

393
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 1: start up by you know, fourteen or sixteen or you know,

394
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,520
Speaker 1: whatever they want to do, they easily could have the

395
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Speaker 1: back door cover in the first half.

396
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:08,600
Speaker 2: That's not gonna happen.

397
00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 1: You're not gonna see Watson baby, throw caution to the

398
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,560
Speaker 1: wind and try to get things going. So at five

399
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,040
Speaker 1: and a half on the first half, I do like it.

400
00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,639
Speaker 1: And look, it's not your fault. I basically chose unconventional

401
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,200
Speaker 1: bets without telling you that you could really do the same,

402
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:21,840
Speaker 1: because I need to have a leg up after the

403
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 1: kicker controversy that you and I had. All right, what

404
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:25,800
Speaker 1: do you got for your third pick?

405
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Speaker 3: All right, my third one, I'm gonna go under forty

406
00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:31,400
Speaker 3: seven points in the Seattle Green Bay matchup. This will

407
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,119
Speaker 3: be a cold weather game, and if you do a

408
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,919
Speaker 3: rough averaging of the point differentials for these teams, it

409
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,919
Speaker 3: projects a forty six point seven point total. You know,

410
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 3: just under that number of forty seven. That's the line.

411
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,640
Speaker 3: That sort of analysis is definitely oversimplified, but there are

412
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 3: other reasons to like the under here. The Packers defense

413
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,719
Speaker 3: was super solid down the stretch of the regular season.

414
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 3: They'd limited six of their final seven opponents to twenty

415
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,719
Speaker 3: or fewer points. Now, I have to note that that

416
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:58,360
Speaker 3: late season run of dominance came against a very soft schedule.

417
00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:00,680
Speaker 3: The forty nine Ers did hang third seven points on

418
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 3: the Packers in Week twelve, and the only other quality

419
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 3: opponent that Green Bay faced in that seven game stretch

420
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,440
Speaker 3: was Minnesota, and Minnesota was without Adam Thielen in that game.

421
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:12,200
Speaker 3: But the Packers defense appears to line up really well

422
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 3: against this specific Seahawks team in my mind, mostly because

423
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,480
Speaker 3: I don't think we can put too much trust into

424
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,879
Speaker 3: the new Seattle backfield of Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch.

425
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 3: Seattle's receivers are really going to need to step up

426
00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 3: to make up for the team's running game limitations, and

427
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,360
Speaker 3: that's going to be extremely tough against green Bay's secondary

428
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 3: Treman Williams and JayR. Alexander both ranked top twelve and

429
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 3: Pro Football focuses end of season quarterback rankings, So Tyler

430
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,119
Speaker 3: Lockett and DK Metcalf could struggle to find separation in

431
00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,200
Speaker 3: this contest. And all this is assuming that the Seahawks

432
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 3: would even want to ramp up their passing attack in

433
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,400
Speaker 3: the first place, right That just hasn't been their identity

434
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 3: this season. And even with Homer and Lynch carrying the ball,

435
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:53,159
Speaker 3: Seattle does have a better matchup running than passing against

436
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 3: this Packers defense. The problem is Green Bay also sets

437
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 3: up with a good running matchup as they face Seattle's

438
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 3: twenty sixth ranked run defense. This shared propensity to run

439
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,880
Speaker 3: the ball effectively is reflected in slow paces of play

440
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,680
Speaker 3: for both teams. The Seahawks ranked twenty fourth in situation

441
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:13,159
Speaker 3: neutral pace according to Football Outsiders, and the Packers rank eighteenth.

442
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,119
Speaker 3: Considering all these statistical factors, the identity of Seattle's offense,

443
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 3: the cold weather, all this stuff rolled up into one

444
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 3: big ball of kind of boring football. I like the

445
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 3: under on forty seven total points.

446
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 2: Yep.

447
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 1: Completely agree with you. And I said that there was

448
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,440
Speaker 1: one line that I liked traditionally, which was the Chiefs

449
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:34,120
Speaker 1: and the Texans under fifty one. You pick this game

450
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 1: because I allow our guests certainly to make their picks

451
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:38,440
Speaker 1: before I go. This would be the other one that

452
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 1: I would take. I completely agree with you for all

453
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 1: the reasons that you said. It's going to take a

454
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 1: lot more than just being stuck with Travis Homer or

455
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 1: thirty three year old marsha On Lynch to get the

456
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,959
Speaker 1: Seahawks to stop running the ball NonStop. That's just what

457
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 1: they want to do, and that is how you attack

458
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,320
Speaker 1: the backers. But they're not going to be able to

459
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,399
Speaker 1: have success with it. And like you said, yeah, the

460
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,919
Speaker 1: Packers really their bread and butter at this point with

461
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,639
Speaker 1: the way their offense works the best, it's really through

462
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,679
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones and or Jamal Williams when they're going. Rogers

463
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 1: hasn't played particularly well, So I agree with you. I

464
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 1: think both teams do their best to stick on the ground.

465
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a lot of running clock and even

466
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 1: if the Packers take a lead, you know what they

467
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 1: kind of like to do in the second half. They

468
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 1: just like to kind of run out the second half.

469
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 1: They never keep their foot on the gas. So I

470
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: completely agree with you with the under here, and that

471
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 1: kind of ties into my next pick, because again I

472
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 1: would have taken this as one of my picks. So instead,

473
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,919
Speaker 1: I'm going to actually do a two team teaser. So

474
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 1: I'm gonna tease the Seahawks and the Packers over under

475
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 1: up six points just to protect myself to fifty three,

476
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go with the under. And really it's

477
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 1: for all the reasons that you said. And the other

478
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: part that I'm gonna tease is I'm gonna tease the

479
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: forty nine ers down to laying just one against the Vikings.

480
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 1: That's essentially a pick them. And I don't feel great

481
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,360
Speaker 1: about the forty nine ers laying seven to the Vikings.

482
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 1: That's a big number. And you know, the Vikings are

483
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 1: certainly a more than competent team, especially since there are

484
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 1: mostly healthy on offense. The forty nine Ers, though, no

485
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 1: matter what, they just play close games. And even though

486
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 1: they look good and I trust that they're going to

487
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 1: win this game, I cannot trust that spread, but I

488
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 1: do trust them to win the game. The Vikings are

489
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 1: on the short week. It was a tough game, Adam feelin.

490
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 1: I guess it's he cut his ankle. Is that what

491
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 1: the that's what we're hearing, all right, and he needed

492
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 1: stitches for it. I don't know, you know that it

493
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 1: doesn't sound good. Stefan Diggs is battling the flu to

494
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 1: If you're looking for reasons to want to back the

495
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 1: Vikings or find them winning and upsetting in a second

496
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 1: straight game, this is not really what you want to hear.

497
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 1: To start now, I will say the Vikings defense, it

498
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 1: matches up generally pretty well with what the forty nine

499
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 1: Ers do their best against the run and at defending

500
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: tight ends, and with Kittle on the running backs. It's

501
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 1: really how San Francisco makes its money. But for me,

502
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 1: this is much more about the forty nine ers defense

503
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,920
Speaker 1: against the Vikings offense, which is the reason why I

504
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 1: think in the end, it's hard for me to see

505
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 1: the Vikings coming away victorious in this game. The Niners

506
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 1: have been exhausted for the vast majority of the season.

507
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 1: Remember they had that really early bye week, right week four,

508
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: whatever it was, They've been injured. They've just been trying

509
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 1: to get through it. Finally they've had a week off,

510
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 1: they got the breather. Kwan Alexander is going to come

511
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: back here. It sounds like that's gonna help the run

512
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: defense immensely, which is important against Stelvin Cook Tart is

513
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: gonna come back here. That's gonna help pretty much everywhere,

514
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: but especially in their past defense, and it sounds most

515
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 1: importantly like d Ford is coming back. That's kind of

516
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 1: the real key for me and why I think it's

517
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 1: going to be really hard for the Vikings to win.

518
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 1: If you want to stop Kirk Cousins, you have to

519
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 1: get pressure on him, and you really have to do

520
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 1: it without blitzing him. The Saints could not really do

521
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: that effectively last week when they got pressure on Cousins,

522
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 1: which wasn't that much, it was largely because of the

523
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: blitz and Cousins has success against them. But you go

524
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 1: back to that Packers game you mentioned against the Vikings,

525
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: they did not need.

526
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 2: To blitz at all.

527
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 1: They were able to get pressure on him, and they

528
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: didn't have Adam Feelin, but you were able to get

529
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 1: pressure on him and it really just completely shut them down.

530
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 1: Cousins does not do well in those situations, so you

531
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 1: add four Tobosa and Armstead, I think they're really going

532
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,120
Speaker 1: to be able to disrupt Cousins. So look, a couple

533
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: of concerns. Yes, it's Jimmy G's playoffs start. We remember

534
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 1: what Shanahan did in the Super Bowl without running it

535
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: kind of froze.

536
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 2: But they're just the Superor team.

537
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: I don't love the seven points, but if I can

538
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 1: basically tease them down to the point where I'm getting

539
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 1: laying just a point, it's essentially a pick them.

540
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 2: I'll do that.

541
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 1: So my third pick is a two team teaser teasing

542
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 1: the Seahawks total.

543
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: Up to fifty three.

544
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 1: And we like the under there even at forty seven,

545
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: so I'll take the extra six, and then also teasing

546
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers down to minus one.

547
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I really like just picking the Niners to win.

548
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 3: That is one of the tougher lines here, and I

549
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 3: in general, that matchup I think is one of the

550
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 3: hardest ones to parse out, and we'll get to more

551
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 3: on that in a little bit with my bet to avoid.

552
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 3: But if you're only asking San Francisco to win by one,

553
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: I think that's a pretty easy ask, to be honest.

554
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 3: They've had that extra week of rest. The Vikings are

555
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 3: on a short week after an overtime game. Not that

556
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 3: the overtime lasted a really long time or anything, but

557
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 3: it all stacks up right, all these extra injuries to

558
00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 3: feel in and illnesses for dig illness for digs. I

559
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 3: think that point you made about the way that the

560
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 3: Vikings defense stacks up against the Niners offense might even

561
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 3: be a little bit overblown. You mentioned how they're good

562
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 3: against the running game, they're good against tight ends, but

563
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 3: this Niners running game has kind of been a matchup beater,

564
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 3: and George Kittle is the definition of a matchup beater.

565
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 3: These things can't really be contained, and that's one of

566
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 3: the reasons why the Niners have been so successful on offense.

567
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 3: It hasn't been on the back of their wide receivers.

568
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 3: It's been because Kittle is so great and because their

569
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 3: running scheme is so great. I really like them to

570
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 3: win that game as well, and I think I would

571
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 3: pick I think I would pick them to cover the

572
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 3: regular spread, so only asking them to cover a spread

573
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 3: of one is easy pickens. And we've already discussed how

574
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 3: we like the under on that Seattle matchup. Can I

575
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 3: ask you what you think of just the basic line

576
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 3: for Seattle Green Bay. I think it's currently at Green

577
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 3: Bay minus four.

578
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hate it.

579
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 1: If I was forced to pick one of them, I

580
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 1: would go with the Packers. I mean, the problem is,

581
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: I feel like it's very difficult to properly analyze the

582
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 1: Seahawks right because they're just not a very good team.

583
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: And you know, you look up and down, they're just

584
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: not a great team. Their defense isn't strong. They have

585
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,120
Speaker 1: no running game right now to speak of, even though

586
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: they desperately want to run the ball NonStop. It's really

587
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: just Russell Wilson being a magician, and it has been

588
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 1: all season. They were winning every game despite the fact

589
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 1: that it looked like they shouldn't. So the Packers, I

590
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: have some question marks about them too, but they are

591
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 1: the spirit team. They're off the buy, they're at home

592
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 1: in a cold game. If I was forced to choose

593
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: one way, i'd lean the Packers laying for But obviously

594
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: it's not one of my favorites.

595
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 2: What about you.

596
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, my gut instinct when the line first open was

597
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 3: just to hammer the Seahawks. I think it was maybe

598
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 3: even four and a half when the line opened, But

599
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 3: I flipped it today. I just after doing the research

600
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 3: that I did for the over under, I kind of

601
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 3: talk myself into this Packers team, And now I'm starting

602
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 3: to worry, am I, you know, buying in too much

603
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 3: to like the public team aspect of Green Bay because

604
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 3: that's always factored into these lines as well. But I

605
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 3: think counteracting that is the recency bias of Seattle going

606
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 3: on the road and winning a playoff game in Philly,

607
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 3: their general success on the road, and Russell Wilson's success

608
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,119
Speaker 3: on the road so far this year. I think that

609
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 3: stuff is being overblown a little bit and that we

610
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 3: are going to see the Packers prevail here and cover.

611
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: That's the way I would go to. I don't feel

612
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 3: super strongly about it, but I think it correlates well

613
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 3: with liking the under in that game. I think if

614
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 3: you like the under in Seattle Green Bay, you should

615
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 3: probably like the Packers too. Is I don't know if

616
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,479
Speaker 3: you agree with that line of thinking, but that's kind

617
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 3: of where I'm at at this point now.

618
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 1: I honestly I think that under is gonna is the

619
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 1: right play regardless. I don't think either one of the

620
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:43,199
Speaker 1: I don't see either way.

621
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 3: Well, that's why I made it my better bed here.

622
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 3: I didn't like the line quite as much.

623
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: A yeah over, and especially since they're going back and

624
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 1: forth on it. You know, you never know either way.

625
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 1: There's gonna be so much money on this game as

626
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: it's the last game of the week, and people are

627
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 1: going to be trying to make up for their losses

628
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 1: or anything like that or go crazy with it, so

629
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: it should be interesting. All right, let's reach cap here.

630
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try and describe it accurately. You correct me

631
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: if I'm wrong. You really your best bet that you like,

632
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 1: and we can do it one of two ways is

633
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: you really would like to parlay the Ravens and the

634
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 1: Chiefs right on the money line?

635
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: Is that right?

636
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 3: It's really just one bet, all right, it's.

637
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 2: Really just one bet.

638
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: But if you throw it in, we'll say maybe you know,

639
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 1: you could do either one on the money line, or

640
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 1: maybe even if you're Forrest Chiefs slaying nine and a half,

641
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,479
Speaker 1: you're basically kind of willing to go there or what.

642
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I am with the Chiefs. I am with the Ravens.

643
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 3: I'm not quite ready to go there to win by ten,

644
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: although I if like, like we said, I think if I

645
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 3: had to pick someone in on that line of nine

646
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:33,640
Speaker 3: and a half, I would pick Baltimore.

647
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 1: I'm going to use my authority as hosts to make

648
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,199
Speaker 1: your first bet Chiefs laying nine and a half, just

649
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: so next week we can talk about it. Chiefs slaying

650
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 1: nine and a half, parlaying the Ravens and the Chiefs

651
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 1: on the money line, and that's at minus one ninety

652
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 1: and the under forty seven in Seattle Green Bay. I

653
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: am going to take the Chiefs and the Texans under

654
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: fifty one, the Chiefs in the first half laying five

655
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: and a half points over the Texans, and a two

656
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: team peezer with the Packer Seahawks under fifty three and

657
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers laying one to the Vikings. Before

658
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: we move on, I want to tell everybody about the

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689
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: All right, Greg, let's move on to a bet to avoid.

690
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 1: We've talked about it. This is a tough week, so

691
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: there's plenty to choose from, and we've talked about a lot.

692
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 2: So what's your one bet to avoid?

693
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, the direction I'm going to go is avoiding the

694
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 3: over under in Minnesota at San Francisco. The pace stats

695
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 3: don't help us quite as much in this matchup, as

696
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 3: the Vikings ranked tenth in situation neutral pace while the

697
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 3: Niners ranked twentieth, so there's not a whole lot of

698
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: indication there which way it's going to go. I did

699
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 3: lock in an under bet when the total was at

700
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 3: forty five and a half earlier this week, but the

701
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 3: line has since been pushed down to forty four. I'd

702
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 3: probably take the over on that number of force to choose,

703
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 3: but it would come with an extreme feeling of queasiness.

704
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 3: I think it's just too hard to project games for

705
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 3: this matchup because both defenses are really good. Minnesota's defense

706
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 3: ranks seventh and waited DVA San Francisco's ranks fifth. But

707
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 3: does that mean that these teams are going to slow

708
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: each other down? Does it mean that they're going to

709
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 3: create some points off turnovers and drive up the pace

710
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 3: with some short fields and on offense, both these teams

711
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 3: do have potential for explicit plays. There are big time

712
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 3: playmakers on both sides of the ball, whether it's Stalvin Cook,

713
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 3: Adam Fielan, Stefon Diggs from Minnesota or George Kittle, Emanuel Sanders,

714
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 3: Raheem Moster, Deebo Samil for San Francisco and the forty

715
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: nine ers scheme in particular, is really adept at creating

716
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 3: chunk plays for stars and scrubs alike, kind of like

717
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 3: we talked about earlier. Will those big plays materialize? Will

718
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 3: the defenses hold up against them? I'm just not comfortable

719
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 3: trying to figure that out, So I'm completely staying away

720
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 3: from this over under. Maybe you want to tease it

721
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 3: in one direction or the other to get a better

722
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 3: feel for it, but at forty four, no, thank you.

723
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 1: It's not even in a line that I'd want to tease.

724
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: I don't have a good feel. I mean, there are

725
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: some games, you know, we throw out stats, both of

726
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 1: us and everybody does you know when we talk about

727
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: these lines, there are just some games and I'm just like, no,

728
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,479
Speaker 1: I do not feel comfortable either way with whatever it is.

729
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 2: And that is certainly a line.

730
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: And again, you know the forecast We're gonna talk about

731
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 1: a little bit more later with Kevin Roth, but you know,

732
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: the early forecast was some wind in that game. I

733
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: don't know how that's gonna mess it up. So it

734
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 1: is something where it's a line that I don't want

735
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 1: any part of, and I wouldn't even tease it again

736
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: involved in a teaser the you know, the over under.

737
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 1: If there's a teaser, I'm just gonna get even more comfortable.

738
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: Like I said with that Seahawks screen Bay total. But

739
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 1: for that one, I completely agree with you. I would

740
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: stay away from that, and I'm also gonna stay away

741
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: myself from a different over under, and that's forty seven

742
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: on the Titans and the Ravens. This is one again

743
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: where to the extent there is a concern about whether

744
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 1: for the week it is.

745
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 2: In this game.

746
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: Again, we'll talk to Kevin in a bit, he'll let

747
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 1: us know whether or not those are real or not.

748
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: But it could be windy, it could be rainy, and

749
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 1: even if not, I just the Ravens are just this anomaly.

750
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 1: I don't know exactly. They could easily come in here

751
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 1: and they could put up forty five points themselves. I mean,

752
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: even the fact that the type generally are good against

753
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: the run, certainly that's how you need to try to

754
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: stop the Ravens, because they're gonna run. Mark Ingram is

755
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 1: probably gonna play here. So it's really easy to see

756
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: a scenario where it gets to the over. But I

757
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 1: don't really know if the Titans are gonna be able

758
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: to put up points. You know, we saw Ryan tannel

759
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: I through for seventy two yards I believe, last week.

760
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: So even if Derrick Henry is able to get going

761
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: on the ground, which is far from certain, if the

762
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 1: game turns to Ryan Tannehill, which it probably is going

763
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: to at some point, it's really unclear whether or not

764
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,719
Speaker 1: he's gonna be able to put up any points whatsoever.

765
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: So I think the Ravens are gonna win. I think

766
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 1: they're gonna get out to a lead. But again, it's

767
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 1: gonna be cold, it's gonna be hard. It's just hard

768
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: for me to get a good feel on this total.

769
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: And one of the things I do is before I

770
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: look at the Lions for each week, I kind of

771
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: predict what I think the line is gonna be, and

772
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 1: this one I had it personally at forty seven, which

773
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 1: means it's just a line that I don't really feel

774
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: that there's much value either way. So for me, I'm

775
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 1: avoiding the Titans Ravens total at forty seven.

776
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense for

777
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 3: all the reasons you stay. My biggest concern with it would,

778
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 3: as you noted, be the Baltimore offense just kind of

779
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 3: going bananas here, because I could see that. But against Tennessee,

780
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 3: I don't know their defense is competent, if not good,

781
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 3: and that would lean me towards the under slightly.

782
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: Yep.

783
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 3: I don't love it, though. I think really the question

784
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 3: here is what version of Ryan Tannehill are we going

785
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 3: to get? And I've been wrong on him consistently since

786
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 3: he became the starter for the Titans, and that enough

787
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 3: is that on its own is enough for me to

788
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 3: stay away. I just haven't been able to get a

789
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 3: good read on him in this offense all season. Maybe

790
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 3: Derek Henry busts off a couple big runs. There are

791
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 3: just too many ways that this can go sideways. And

792
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 3: I really like the fact that you're staying away from

793
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 3: this because I am too.

794
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, wonderful.

795
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 1: We are both staying away then from the Vikings forty

796
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: nine ers over under forty four and the Titans Ravens

797
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: over under of forty seven. But we cannot stay away

798
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 1: from our top prop. So what do you have for

799
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: your best player prop of the weekend?

800
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, the theme of this show so far has been

801
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 3: that we both really like the Chiefs to win big,

802
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 3: So it should come as no surprise that I like

803
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 3: Damian Williams over fifty four and a half rushing yards,

804
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 3: which is currently at minus one twelve on the DK Sportsbook.

805
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: The Texans bring the regular seasons twenty six the ranked

806
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 3: pass defense into this game, so I think they're going

807
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 3: to need to sell out to slid down Patrick Mahomes

808
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 3: through the air, and that's going to open things up

809
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 3: for Damian Williams. And while Houston hasn't been as bad

810
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 3: against the run as they have been against the pass,

811
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 3: run defense still is not a strength for them. They

812
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 3: allowed ninety eight point eight rushing yards per game to

813
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 3: running backs during the regular season, then they gave up

814
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 3: fifty eight yards and thirteen carries to Devin Singletary in

815
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 3: the wild card round. Damian Williams has twelve carries and

816
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 3: sixty five yards or more in four of his past

817
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 3: five games. I also like Damian Williams for over two

818
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 3: and a half receptions for what it's worth, but you

819
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 3: have to lay more wood at minus one seventy seven,

820
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 3: so I much prefer over fifty four and a half

821
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 3: rushing yards at minus one twelve if we want to

822
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 3: dig in a little bit deeper on those passing stats.

823
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,879
Speaker 3: Singletary last week caught six of seven targets for seven

824
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 3: six yards. Williams has had three or more receptions in

825
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 3: six of his last eleven games, but a lot of

826
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 3: those were weeks where he was either dinged up due

827
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 3: to injury or just straight up missed due to injury.

828
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 3: When the Chiefs featured Damian Williams as they've done recently,

829
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 3: he's been very active in the passing game. Long story short,

830
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 3: I like Damian Williams to be a key cog in

831
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 3: the Chief's offensive attack this weekend, and I think you

832
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 3: can attack the Props in a lot of different ways.

833
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 3: With him. My preferred way is the over on fifty

834
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 3: four and a half rushing yards.

835
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I couldn't believe that it was minus one seventy

836
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 1: seven because I also generally when I look at player props,

837
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 1: now I look at DK Sportsbook. I'm in New Hampshire,

838
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 1: so it was legalized a couple of weeks ago and

839
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 1: it was minus one seventy seven. I was like, oh,

840
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: because I was one of the less that I was

841
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: starting to look at. But I completely agree with you here.

842
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 1: I think this is Damian Williams is really the only

843
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 1: running back that Andy Reid I feel like, is willing

844
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:48,879
Speaker 1: to just go out there and trust you saw when

845
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: he was out it was Lesha McCoy getting a few carries,

846
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,280
Speaker 1: and Spencer ware off the street getting a few carries,

847
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 1: and Darwin Thompson getting a few carries. He's the one

848
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 1: guy that they want to rely on. Fifty four and

849
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 1: a half rushing yards is not prohibitive. I think they're

850
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: going to be up here. I think they're going to

851
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:03,720
Speaker 1: be able to run the ball. So I completely agree

852
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 1: with you there. I am going to say something that

853
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: I think sounds a little blasphemous here, but I am

854
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,479
Speaker 1: actually going to go with Derrick Henry under ninety four

855
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards over at minus one seventeen. Now,

856
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 1: he has popped that number in six of the last

857
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 1: seven games.

858
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 2: I get it. It's ridiculous.

859
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: He could do it in one run, you know what

860
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: I mean if you get the ball deep, and that's

861
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 1: always a threat. But there are a couple of things here.

862
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 1: The Ravens have been fine against the run on the season,

863
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 1: not great, but fine. But I feel like it's a

864
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 1: little bit of a different story now.

865
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 2: They're really really healthy.

866
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 1: On their defensive line. Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce, Chris Wormley

867
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: and now Pecott there. They've been very, very good, much

868
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 1: better lately than their season long numbers. And you saw

869
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 1: that against the Browns, right, I mean, Nick Schubb destroyed

870
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 1: them early in the season when they were kind of

871
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: decimated by injuries stuff like that. They completely contained him

872
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: once they got healthy.

873
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 2: I just think that like.

874
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: New England, the Ravens kind of know the Titans are

875
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: gonna run NonStop with Derek Henry, but I think they

876
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,720
Speaker 1: just have a better chance to stop them. And unlike

877
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 1: New England, I think the Ravens are going to be

878
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 1: able to get out to a lead here, and I

879
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 1: think that's going to force the Titans, as much as

880
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 1: they desperately want to run the ball with Henry, if

881
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,240
Speaker 1: they're down by fourteen points, by twenty points, by twenty

882
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: one points, they're going to need to go to the

883
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 1: air at some point and kind of abandon the run.

884
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 1: So ninety four and a half yards when you think

885
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 1: about Henry, just you know, at Joe Public's in and

886
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: there being.

887
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 2: Like, well, of course he's getting over there.

888
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 1: He's amazing, He's unstoppable and stuff like that. That's a

889
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: big number. That's a really big number in a playoff

890
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: game against a good rush defense. So I'm not excited

891
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 1: about it, but I will go under here. Ninety four

892
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards for Derrick Henry, and that's

893
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:39,280
Speaker 1: a minus one seventeen.

894
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, you take your life for at least your pocketbook

895
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 3: into your own hands when you bet against Derrick Henry,

896
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 3: it seems. But I love this bet. I am looking

897
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 3: at the Baltimore Ravens adjusted lineyards on defense right now.

898
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 3: They rank ninth, and like you said, I think the

899
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 3: key point here is gamescript the Ravens should be able

900
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 3: to score a lot more easily than the Patriots were

901
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 3: able to do last week. I mentioned that earlier, and

902
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,399
Speaker 3: why I like the Ravens on the money line, why

903
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 3: I like them to potentially cover nine and a half.

904
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 3: I just think they're going to be able to put

905
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:12,720
Speaker 3: up points and force Tennessee into a more pass heavy

906
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 3: game script. And who knows, maybe they will end up

907
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 3: throwing more to Derrick Henry, as they should have been

908
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 3: doing all season, but based upon the way they've used

909
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 3: him to this point, I don't think we can count

910
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 3: on that necessarily. And even if Dereck Henry is catching passes,

911
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 3: that doesn't help him hit the over on this prop.

912
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 3: So going under on this when the public is going

913
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 3: to be going crazy for Derek Henry based upon what

914
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 3: he's been doing in recent weeks, I think makes a

915
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 3: ton of sense. I think this is a great pick

916
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 3: by you.

917
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 2: I mean it's great.

918
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,280
Speaker 1: You just go against Derrick Henry and Patrick Mahomes scoring

919
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: a ton of points and you're going to be in

920
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,879
Speaker 1: great shape this weekend, which is basically what I'm doing.

921
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: So let's hope that that underhits and that this underhits.

922
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 1: So you are taking Damien Williams over fifty four and

923
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 1: a half rushing yards at minus one twelve, and I

924
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 1: am going to take Derrick Henry under ninety four and

925
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:57,439
Speaker 1: a half rushing yards at minus one seventeen. All right, Greg,

926
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,439
Speaker 1: that is it for the picks portion of our show.

927
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 2: Thanks for me.

928
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 1: Before we bring in Kevin, remind everybody where they can

929
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 1: find more review and your work.

930
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can check me out on Twitter at Greg Sauce.

931
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 3: Give me a follow. Should be any questions you have.

932
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 3: I'm happy to interact on there, and you can find

933
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 3: my work at two qbs dot com and at four

934
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 3: for four dot com. Thanks for having me, Dan.

935
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, excellent, and enjoy this weekend's games and Savior your

936
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: Fantasy Kicker accuracy title because I'm coming for it next year.

937
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 3: It won't last. I'm sure. Have a good one man.

938
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 2: All right, man, you too? All right?

939
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: Before we bring in Kevin to talk about some weather

940
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: for this weekend, I want to remind everybody about our giveaway.

941
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 1: It's assigned Michael Thomas Saints helmet. You can go to

942
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter,

943
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 1: just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts

944
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: or Stitcher send a screenshot of that review over to

945
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 1: contest at Bettingpros dot com. If you've already entered a

946
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: previous contest, you are already entered for this one, so

947
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 1: don't worry about that. The Michael Thomas helmet. Every one

948
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: of our signed helmet giveaways that we've done this year,

949
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 1: they come from Pristine Auction, where they offer a ton

950
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 1: of great memorabilia with thousands of auctions every day. Just

951
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 1: go to Pristineauction dot com. That's pri I S t

952
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: I n E auction dot com and when you go

953
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: there use our promo code Betting Pros. You get a

954
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 1: free five dollars voucher instantly.

955
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 2: All right now?

956
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 1: Joining me is Kevin Roth over at roto Grinders. You

957
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 1: can find him on Twitter at Kevin Roth Wx. If

958
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 1: you play dfs, if you bet on any sport where

959
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 1: weather could be a factor, you must be following Kevin

960
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 1: on Twitter without question. I was just telling him how

961
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: before I even got into this, my brother in law

962
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 1: used to revere this guy and follow him for Baseball

963
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 1: DFS in particular where rainouts are crazy, So definitely give

964
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:34,320
Speaker 1: him a follow on Twitter.

965
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 2: Kevin, Thanks for coming on. How's it going? Good.

966
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 4: That's that's quite the intro. I feel like I've got

967
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 4: a lot to live up to now.

968
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: I'm not kidding.

969
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:42,360
Speaker 1: When we booked you for this, I was secretly so

970
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 1: excited and I couldn't tell my bosses or anything like that,

971
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 1: because again, legitimately, this is back in the day when

972
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 1: I was just you know, playing DFS and first getting

973
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 1: into baseball DFS. Again, there are some weather concerns that

974
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: we've got to talk about for the NFL, but for

975
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: baseball in particular, the possibility of a rainout, and I

976
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: imagine that's pretty stressful for you because of the fact

977
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: that probably DFS, you know, Twitter gets pretty worked up

978
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 1: if you suggest something is going to be a rain

979
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 1: out in baseball and then it's not, or vice versa.

980
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: We rely on you pretty heavily, and you've been a

981
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 1: great asset, and I know, not just to me and

982
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 1: my brother in law, but to the entire DFS and

983
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: now sports gambling community. So I'm really pumped to have

984
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: you on.

985
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, it started with baseball and the rainouts, like you said,

986
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 4: and now it's it's grown and it's NFL and college

987
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 4: football and PGA and NASCAR and anything outdoors in sports,

988
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 4: But to be fair, NFL is my favorite, so I'm

989
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 4: excited to break this down with you.

990
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 2: Well, then let's jump into it.

991
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 1: All right, We've got four games this weekend, all of

992
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,280
Speaker 1: them are outdoors. Why don't you just talk about whatever

993
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 1: the biggest weather concerns are for this weekend.

994
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:46,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll go by increasing severity here, so we can

995
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 4: start in Kansas City. It's beautiful, it's just nice weather.

996
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 4: Just you know, it's in the upper thirties. It's chilly,

997
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 4: but there's no win, there's no precipitation, so we'll move

998
00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 4: that one aside. Next we'll go to Green Bay. It

999
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 4: is freezing cold, and I mean that quite literally. The

1000
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 4: temperature should be about twenty degrees at kickoff there. But

1001
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 4: it's important to know that the cold isn't as impactful

1002
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 4: as people think it is. So a lot of times

1003
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 4: you'll see the totals drop here because of the cold.

1004
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 4: But I looked at statistics here thirty one similar weather

1005
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 4: games in Green Bay. The average score has dropped one percent.

1006
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 4: That's it, just one percent. So let people take the

1007
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 4: under here if they want because they're worried about the cold.

1008
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 4: But I don't think that's something that you should be

1009
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 4: messing with.

1010
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 2: Okay.

1011
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, And in my experience, just when I'm looking at this,

1012
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: the big thing for me that I worry about with

1013
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 1: totals is wind. In your experience, is wind really the

1014
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 1: most important thing that comes into practice with these games,

1015
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: especially with the over under.

1016
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's two things I look for, and wind is

1017
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 4: definitely the first one. It's also the easiest to forecast

1018
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 4: because I know if it's going to be windy five

1019
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 4: days out. The other thing that really impacts it is

1020
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:03,280
Speaker 4: if it is a true downpour, if it is raining

1021
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:07,240
Speaker 4: really hard, or if it's snowing really hard, then it matters,

1022
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,360
Speaker 4: But I don't know that until the morning of the game,

1023
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 4: because you know, a light ring that doesn't matter, a

1024
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 4: light snow that doesn't matter. So wind really is the

1025
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 4: key thing that I focus on for these all.

1026
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 1: Right, So for this game, we're talking really not much

1027
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: of an impact now, So again, if you want to

1028
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 1: factor that in.

1029
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,320
Speaker 2: As you heard earlier, both Greg.

1030
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: And I kind of like the under anyway in this game,

1031
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 1: and it has stayed relatively constant at this point. I believe

1032
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 1: it opened at maybe forty six. It's actually pushed up

1033
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: to forty seven, so it sounds like sharp betters are

1034
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 1: not really letting that factor in what's the next game

1035
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 1: in terms of severity of weather that we need to

1036
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 1: think about.

1037
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 4: All Right, We're gonna ratchet it up a little bit

1038
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,359
Speaker 4: here as we get to the San Francisco game. We

1039
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 4: were just talking about wins, and I do think this

1040
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 4: game should see about a fifteen mile per hour sustained

1041
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 4: wind win gusts around twenty. That's borderline. What I'm really

1042
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: looking for is wins about twenty miles per hour sustained.

1043
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 4: And we're not quite there. But a few of the

1044
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 4: deeper throws, maybe a longer field goal or two could

1045
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 4: be impacted by the wind. Actually have seen a ten

1046
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:12,399
Speaker 4: percent drop in passing yards in similar weather games as

1047
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 4: what we're going to see in San Francisco.

1048
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 1: All right, so that's really interesting actually, And you know,

1049
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 1: the one thing here that I think maybe makes the

1050
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 1: wind less impactful perhaps is the fact that both these

1051
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 1: teams focus so heavily on the run. Right, The Vikings

1052
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 1: are going to rely on Dalvin Cook, the Niners are

1053
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:28,239
Speaker 1: going to rely on Rhem Mostert, and you know, uh,

1054
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 1: Tevin Coleman and Matt Bridiff, they get them going but

1055
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 1: they do take some shots down the field, so there

1056
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 1: is a chance. You're saying, is the gusts, by the way,

1057
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: nearly as important? Is it just the sustained wind? Do

1058
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 1: the gusts matter at all when you have that difference?

1059
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just like pointing it out because a lot

1060
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,839
Speaker 4: of times people see the wind gusts and assume that's

1061
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 4: the sustained wind, and those are two very different things.

1062
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 4: So I like pointing out, you know, this is what

1063
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:53,799
Speaker 4: we'll see throughout the games around fifteen. You could see

1064
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 4: some stronger gusts twenty to twenty five, but mostly I

1065
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 4: do look at the sustained winds.

1066
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, the total here is at forty four. That's the

1067
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: lowest total of the weekend. But it sounds like in

1068
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:06,320
Speaker 1: your estimation the winds, you know, could have a minor

1069
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: impact they're saying essentially on the passing game, but overall

1070
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 1: it's not that crazy.

1071
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:11,479
Speaker 2: Is that fair to say? Yep?

1072
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 4: I think that is fair, And I think you kind

1073
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 4: of led me into something good there with that's a

1074
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 4: game where the teams want to run. Because you talk

1075
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 4: about the next game, Titans at Ravens. This is the

1076
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:24,760
Speaker 4: worst weather game out of the four but it's also

1077
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 4: the game where these two teams are very capable of

1078
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 4: just keeping it on the ground and doing a lot

1079
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 4: of damage that way. But this is the game all

1080
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 4: week I've been watching because there's a cold front coming

1081
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 4: through on Saturday night into Sunday morning. The timing of

1082
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 4: this looks like it's going to happen just after the game,

1083
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 4: So the worst of the wins, the worst of the

1084
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 4: rain that should be just after the game. But that's

1085
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,439
Speaker 4: really important because this timing here in the next couple

1086
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 4: of days could change. So I urge everyone Sunday morning

1087
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 4: check the weather forecast or hit up my Twitter at

1088
00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 4: Kevin Roth WX. Make sure that this weather forecast hasn't changed,

1089
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 4: because if it does, it's going to be huge impacts.

1090
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 4: As it stands, I think maybe they get a rain

1091
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 4: shower here and you're looking at ten to fifteen mile

1092
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 4: proor wins gus up to twenty, but the ugliest does

1093
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 4: hold off. For what it's worth, in similar weather games,

1094
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 4: this has been a seven percent decrease to scoring.

1095
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:22,040
Speaker 1: That's a great stat Yeah, the over under on this

1096
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 1: game hovering right around forty seven right now. A little

1097
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 1: tough again, As we talked about both teams like to

1098
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 1: run the ball out. So I mean, let me just

1099
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 1: ask you a very basic question. You know, it is

1100
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 1: Thursday as we are recording this. How tough is it

1101
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 1: to forecast out for these games? I mean, how dramatically

1102
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 1: could it? Could you come back, you know, shortly before

1103
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: the game be like who whoa, whoa, it's going to

1104
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 1: be you know, thirty mile an hour wins or something

1105
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 1: like that, or you generally feel confident that you're in

1106
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 1: the ballpark. It obviously is going to depend on the

1107
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 1: timing of when all this moves in and stuff like that.

1108
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 1: But for the most part, I mean, are you generally

1109
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 1: confident in what sort of the outliers possibly could be

1110
00:46:57,520 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 1: the extremes on either end at this point in the way?

1111
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 4: Honestly, at this point it can change pretty dramatically, especially

1112
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 4: in a situation like this where it's all about the

1113
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 4: timing of this front and right now it should it

1114
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:12,760
Speaker 4: looks like it'll move through one two in the morning.

1115
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 4: It could very easily be six hours earlier than that,

1116
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 4: which would put it right in the middle of the game,

1117
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 4: and the wins would be not ten or fifteen, but

1118
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 4: they'd be twenty five. And we wouldn't be talking about showers.

1119
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 4: We'd be talking about a downpour. So this is kind

1120
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 4: of an exception to the rule. Usually at this point

1121
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 4: I feel pretty good about it. When you're talking about

1122
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 4: the timing of a cold front, it is a very

1123
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,800
Speaker 4: specific thing, and that's why this is the one game

1124
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 4: where I do think you have to circle back and

1125
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 4: double check it.

1126
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 3: The other three.

1127
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 4: I feel very confident about the current forecast moving forward.

1128
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 1: So I assume then if everybody follows you on Twitter,

1129
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 1: that you're going to be tweeting out sort of updated

1130
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 1: forecast on game day?

1131
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 2: Is that fair?

1132
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 4: That's what I do? Yeah, I will be you know,

1133
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,080
Speaker 4: I tweet an updated forecast. I look at the the

1134
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 4: actual wins before the game happens and say, okay, this

1135
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 4: is not a forecast. We are actually seeing a sixteen

1136
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:09,320
Speaker 4: mile per hour wins currently and twenty two mile prour gus.

1137
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:11,799
Speaker 4: So yeah, I make the forecast, I compare it with

1138
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 4: what's really going on, and hopefully before kickoff we nail

1139
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 4: what the weather's going to be like for that game.

1140
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 2: Absolutely well.

1141
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 1: I certainly owe you tip the hat for some baseball

1142
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,240
Speaker 1: dfs that you have saved me some money over the years.

1143
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 1: So I really appreciate that, and I really appreciate you

1144
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 1: coming on. We had talked earlier in the season about

1145
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 1: trying to get you on as much as possible. We've

1146
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:33,879
Speaker 1: got some different schedules it's been hard to work out.

1147
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 1: So I'm really glad we were able to get you

1148
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 1: on before the end of the season, and hopefully we

1149
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 1: can do it again.

1150
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 4: I could not agree more. It's a good way kind

1151
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:42,879
Speaker 4: of end the season this way, and then maybe next

1152
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 4: year we'll do a little bit more of this.

1153
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 1: Absolutely, all right, keV, that was all great information. Just

1154
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 1: remind everybody where they can find more of you and

1155
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:49,880
Speaker 1: your work.

1156
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:53,879
Speaker 4: The forecast always goes up on rotogrinders dot com and

1157
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 4: you can also follow me on Twitter. It's at Kevin

1158
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 4: Roth WX and that's around posting everything you need to know.

1159
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 1: Thanks again for coming on. Before we go, I want

1160
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: to say thanks again to the sponsor of today's show,

1161
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,439
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1162
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,680
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1163
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,360
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1164
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:14,920
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1165
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 1: so long as any team this weekend scores a touchdown,

1166
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:19,920
Speaker 1: and don't forget to leave us a review on Apple

1167
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: podcast or Stitcher. Send the screenshot of that review over

1168
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 1: our contest at bettingpros dot com to be entered into

1169
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 1: our Michael Thomas signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with your

1170
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 1: wagers this weekend. We'll be back talking about the Championship

1171
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: Round on Sunday night.