1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,960 Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? Great? Five dollars? 3 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 1: This is a raging a lesson happy chapleship. One man, 4 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: You're saying. 5 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 2: That humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans need 6 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 2: fantasy to be human. 7 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: My goodness, that's good. I suppose the. 8 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 2: Best, relentless refusing to give up. All right, hit that horn, babe. 9 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: Let's and welcome to the. 10 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 2: Week eighteen Fantasy Blecks Waiver Podcast presented by Prize Picks. 11 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, joined us always by my dude, 12 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 2: Sean Kerner. 13 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: Sean, Happy New Year? What's going on? 14 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 3: Happy near? 15 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 1: And you know, Happy week eighteen. 16 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 3: This is my favorite weekend of the season when we 17 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 3: get to make player props based on you know, motivation 18 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 3: incentives and stuff. So this is usually my favorite time 19 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 3: of year. 20 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: How are you doing good? 21 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 2: Just trying to you know, recover from New Year's Oh really, 22 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 2: you know, always going a little hard on New Years, 23 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 2: but trying to recover from uh taking the L and 24 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 2: R TAN Fantasy League to Mike Randalls. 25 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: Oh he has a team Team dacked. Shouts to Mike. 26 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 2: Congratulations but yees, so we obviously won't be doing waivers 27 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: for this pod. We'll just be doing the breakdown into 28 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 2: the showdown slate. So let's get right into it. Who 29 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 2: do you like in the captain spot? We have the Browns, 30 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 2: we have the Steelers. Now the wine kind of shifted. 31 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 2: The Browns were favored by up to three and a 32 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 2: half points and then they essentially got eliminated with that 33 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 2: Bengals win, and now the line is two minus two 34 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 2: for the Steelers. So I guess kind of a motivation 35 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 2: shift expected here. So does that change how you're approaching 36 00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 2: this slate at all? 37 00:01:58,360 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: Absolutely? 38 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 3: And I kind of alluded that why Week eighteen is 39 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 3: so much fun because we see these massive line moves 40 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 3: and yeah, the Browns don't have anything to play for now, 41 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 3: So I think this is a good time to, you know, 42 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 3: invest in Big Band if you want. This is his 43 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 3: last game potentially at Heinz Field, So I think this 44 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 3: is a slight where I think quarterbacks do make sense. 45 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 3: So Big Ben and the captain slot is viable. You know, 46 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 3: he has Chase Claypole and Deondrey Johnson to throw to, 47 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 3: and you know the Browns are missing both starting safety 48 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 3: so this could be a good game for Big Ben obviously, 49 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 3: you know, Najie Harris is also in play as well. 50 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 3: And on the other side, my boy Nick Chubb always 51 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 3: is in play as a captain. So there's a lot 52 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 3: of good options here. But I think the sneaky play 53 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 3: would maybe Big Ben or Chase Claypool here, how about you? 54 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Deyonce as well. 55 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 2: I mean, I think if Ben is going to have 56 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 2: a big game, he's gonna have to throw to Deonce 57 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 2: and Deyonce tends to get more We're not tends. He 58 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 2: always gets more snapped. And Claypool did finally rebound a 59 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 2: little bit in the snap department, but you still don't 60 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 2: know it's exactly where they're at with him. 61 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: But yeah, I like any of those Steelers. 62 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 2: Pass catchers in the in the captain spot, And are 63 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 2: there any incentives in play here? 64 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: I'm trying to look to see those usually. 65 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 3: I mean, that's something we would focus on for next Yeah, 66 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 3: Like I don't know, like what if Deanty Johnson needs 67 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty yards the rest of the season, 68 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 3: not Mike factor in, But I haven't seen any. 69 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, because Naji has he already has nine hundred and 70 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: eighty four rushing yards, so only needs sixteen for one thousand. 71 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 2: So yeah, I think it would be kind of focused 72 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 2: on Big Ben here last game. Yeah, I expect them 73 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 2: to give him some chances to throw the ball. What 74 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 2: about four DFS cheat codes guys a little further down 75 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 2: on the salary. 76 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I mean, obviously Deontay and Claypool are the 77 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 3: top two options for the Steelers, but Rayray McLeod has 78 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 3: been their number three wide receiver for a handful of 79 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 3: games now, and he's the kind of guy that could 80 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 3: rack up four or five catches for thirty yards and 81 00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 3: a heartbeat. So he's the kind of guy I do 82 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 3: like to target on a full PPR side, like DK 83 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 3: on a Showdown slate, So he could be kind of sneaky. 84 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 3: James Washington as well, you know, he's like another deep 85 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 3: threat like Chase Claypool. So with the Browns missing both safeties, 86 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 3: I could see Big Ben taking a couple of deep 87 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 3: shots to either James Washington or Chase Claypool and then 88 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 3: Pat Farremouth. You know, he returns from his one week 89 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 3: absence from the concussion, he probably has the best you know, 90 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 3: tight touchdown upside in this matchup, so love him on 91 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 3: the Brown side. You know, it's a little less outside 92 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 3: of Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry. You know, Donovan People's Jones, 93 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:38,840 Speaker 3: maybe just because he is their main deep threat, and 94 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 3: with the Browns having nothing to play for other than 95 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 3: being spoiler, maybe Baker takes a couple of deep shots 96 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 3: and that would typically go to Donton People's Jones, although 97 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 3: you know, Anthony Schwartz could be sneaky in that department too. 98 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 3: And then last but not least, I think with cream 99 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: Hunt being questionable tonight if he doesn't suit up, Darius 100 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 3: Johnson might be in play. I don't know why they 101 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 3: would give Nick Chubb twenty plus carries when this is 102 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 3: basically a meaningless game for the brown So DearS Johnson 103 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 3: could get some work. You know, the Steelers are horrible 104 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 3: against running back, so I think Junior Johnson if Cream 105 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 3: Hunt is out, would be in play as well. 106 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: Like I like James Washington for the Steelers a lot. 107 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 2: I think, you know, the rookies for Cleveland might also 108 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 2: be interesting, like Felton Schwartz, like you mentioned, just because 109 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 2: those are the guys that have kind of you know, 110 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 2: they seem to have a future with the team and 111 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 2: in a game like this, they might get a few 112 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 2: extra snaps. 113 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: You know. 114 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 2: Felton, especially if Hunt is out, you know, could kind 115 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 2: of fill some of that role as well. 116 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 1: He could also play in the slots sports. 117 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 2: We've seen him kind of getting uptick in usage at 118 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 2: random times. I think this would be one of those times. 119 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: But yeah, I think James Washington pops is like a 120 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 2: true value. He's coming up as a top two value 121 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 2: in our Fantasy Labs showdown models for DK so twenty 122 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,239 Speaker 2: two hundred. I think, you know, he's he has chemistry. 123 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 2: Have been a little bit longer than McLoud. So game 124 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 2: like this, you know, maybe Ben throws you know, three 125 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 2: touchdowns or something like that. Just because it's the last game, 126 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:07,280 Speaker 2: maybe I find one to h to Washington and the 127 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 2: Steelers deep you know, you said a big if Mayfield 128 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: you might take some deep shots. They'll probably go to 129 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 2: people's jones. They'll probably go to the opposing defense. So yeah, 130 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 2: I mean, if the last game is any indication, uh so, yeah, 131 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 2: I think I think the Steelers defense in this spot, 132 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 2: you know, probably be an emotional type of game for them, 133 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 2: and they're still technically not eliminator, right. 134 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 3: The Steelers, Yeah, Yeah, they like they they're they have 135 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,840 Speaker 3: like a two chance, you think. So they have to 136 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 3: win to night just to make it to next week. 137 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 3: They have so much motivation tonight it's not funny. Even 138 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 3: if they were out of contentionent still Big Ben's last 139 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 3: game potentially hind steel But yeah, they they have to 140 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 3: win to have a chance next week, right. 141 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 2: So yeah, so Steelers, a motivated Steelers defense at home, yeah, 142 00:06:55,480 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 2: against Baker Mayfield and an unmotivated Browns team. I mean, 143 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 2: sometimes you see these things go the other way where 144 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 2: the team playing spoiler ends up surprising. But just knowing 145 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 2: the Steelers, knowing Tomlin, you know they should be they 146 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 2: at least we should count of them to be ready, 147 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 2: Like we don't know where. 148 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: The Browns will be at that. That's kind of what 149 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: I'm saying. So yeah, I like the Steelers d as 150 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: well in this spot. 151 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 2: Next up here on the Fantasy Flex to the segment 152 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 2: we call Elite Entries, where Seawan and I dive into 153 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 2: the prize Pick app and compare our player projections to 154 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:33,559 Speaker 2: the props to build some entries. Sean, what's your prize 155 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 2: pick Elit entry for today's Monday Night matchup between the 156 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 2: Steelers and the Brown So. 157 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 3: I'm going with Nowji Harris over sixty seven and a 158 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 3: half rushing yards. You know, this is a must win 159 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 3: game for the Steelers. They're now up to three point favorites, 160 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 3: so they're not going to mess around and get Benny 161 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 3: Smell too much work. Last week, Benny Snell had five 162 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 3: rush attempts, but four of those came in the fourth 163 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 3: quarter froom they were down twenty six points. So you know, 164 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 3: I'm projecting the Steelers around twenty five and a half 165 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 3: rush attempts, and I think I'm getting conservative by giving 166 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 3: Naji Heirs eighty percent of those, so that comes out 167 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 3: to about twenty rush attempts. You know, we can never 168 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 3: always bank on efficiency with him, but I think we'll 169 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,559 Speaker 3: get the volume. So I projected them closer to twenty 170 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 3: rush attempts for seventy five yards. So I love his 171 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 3: four tonite, so I love the over sixty seven and 172 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 3: a half rushing yards. 173 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: I'm going with Narrative Street. 174 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 2: I'm going with Big Ben over thirteen fantasy points in 175 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 2: what could be his last home game. You know, I 176 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 2: do have this around fifteen point five, so I do 177 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 2: show quite a bit of value here. I think the 178 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 2: market hasn't quite adjusted for the added motivation for the Steelers, 179 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 2: So you just kind of combine that with the fact 180 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 2: that I think if they do get down here to 181 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 2: go one, they've always had. 182 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: Trouble kind of running the wall power running you. 183 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 2: Know, in close anyway, So I think if they do 184 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 2: get down there, I think they give him a shot 185 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 2: to throw a touchdown, maybe even run one in on a. 186 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 1: Bootleg or something. 187 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 2: You know, he hasn't done that years, so I think 188 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 2: you can see some weird things from Big Ben. But 189 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 2: either way, just a median forgetting the narrative, I still 190 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 2: have it about two and a half points over, just 191 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 2: because again, you know, just the Steelers were three point underdogs. 192 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 2: Three and a half point underdogs was a low total 193 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 2: for most of the week, and they've kind of shifted 194 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:16,959 Speaker 2: now to three point favorites, as he said, So that's 195 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 2: a big swing in terms of, you know, a little 196 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 2: bit of added touchdown probability here for Big Ben. So 197 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 2: over thirteen fantasy points for Big Bet. 198 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: All right, that is going to wrap it up for. 199 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 2: A prize picklead entry four today to recap Sewan is 200 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 2: going with Najee Harris over sixty seven and a half 201 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 2: rushing yard and I'm going with Ben Roethlisberger over thirteen 202 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 2: fantasy points. As a reminder of Prize Picks markets, we moved, 203 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 2: so you want to get on it quickly in order 204 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 2: to lock in the best numbers. If you haven't created 205 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 2: a Prize Pick account yet, check out the link in 206 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 2: our episode description and they'll match your first deposit up 207 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 2: to one hundred dollars. Or you can visit prize picks 208 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 2: dot com use the promo code action ten. That's Actio 209 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:03,079 Speaker 2: N one zero. All right, Yeah, that's that's gonna do 210 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 2: it for the pod. This should be our last Monday episode. 211 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 2: We'll continue bringing you guys to you know, the main 212 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 2: episode every Wednesday, where we break down in the main slates, 213 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 2: and then we'll also still bring you the props episode 214 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 2: every Friday. So happy New Year everyone, Thanks for listening. 215 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 2: You can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. 216 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 2: You can find me at Chris Raybon. You can find 217 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 2: us at those same handles in the free award winning 218 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 2: Action Network app. Don't forget you can still check our 219 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 2: fantasy football rankings and projections. 220 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: Even though the season is. 221 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 2: Over, we still do the projections for dfs and everything. 222 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 2: You can find that at actionnetwork dot com. You can 223 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 2: find our content, who's and models for dfs at Fantasy 224 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 2: lab dot com. 225 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: Until next time, it's get this money.