WEBVTT - Brexit, Trade, Consumer Tech 0:00:02.640 --> 0:00:05.320 Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul swing you 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:07.680 along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.240 we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 0:00:10.280 --> 0:00:12.520 you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:15.480 the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:17.960 podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:23.680 at Bloomberg dot com. Right now, let's turn to Maria today. 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:25.720 Oh she is an E. M. E. A reporter for 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:28.880 Bloomberg News and Bloomberg Television. She joins us on the 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:31.760 phone from Brussels. Maria, thank you so much for joining us. 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:33.720 Give us your thoughts on what we heard from uh 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:38.760 speaker bark How this morning. That's right, So essentially there 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:40.919 was a lot of hype build into this, but I 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.240 think it's not been surprising that he's decided the vote 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:46.600 cannot happen today, just purely on the basis that is 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:50.440 so similar to what was presented and delayed on Saturday, 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:53.280 and therefore there is no meaningful vote today, which, to 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:55.840 kind of distripboy the jargon, it basically means the Brexit 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.720 deal which was agreed between the UK and the EU 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.920 last week Thursday, after a very long, very difficult negotiation, 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:06.240 cannot be voted today. And of course the tricky bit 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:08.960 on this is that that deal between the EU and 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:12.400 the UK is worth nothing unless it can clear the 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.200 House of Commons. We've been here before many times, It's 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:18.479 been rejected many times. And the issue here, of course 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:21.000 is that we're running up against a very hard deadline, 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:23.920 which is thirty one for the UK to crash out 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:29.400 without a deal. Indeed, this does seem like the expected outcome, 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:35.360 as the pound is now basically unchanged from before the vote. 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.080 So I guess that Maria, what will it take for 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:41.000 markets to be surprised here? Because it seems to be 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:45.040 baked in that Parliament will debate this, some people might 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.760 raise a couple issues, it might get tweaked, and then 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:51.400 people will vote and it will go through as planned exactly. 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:53.040 And I think there's a number of things, um that 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:56.320 are being priced in and to sterling now. And based 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:59.200 on the analysts that I've spoken to today, they point 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:00.880 to two things. And want is the fact that it 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:03.560 does seem that the Prime Minister UH may not have 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:05.680 the votes he needs now, but they do feel he 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.400 will get them at one point, So this is the 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:11.120 closest we've actually ever been to the deal passing. And 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:14.320 then the other issue, which is also very apparent now 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:15.919 is the fact that the threat of a no deal 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:21.240 brexit also seems very unlikely because the Europeans could deny time, 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:23.919 they could deny an extension, and principle they all have 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:25.720 to agree to it, and if they didn't want to, 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:27.600 they would say, well, I'm sorry, but you don't get 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:29.960 more time and you crash out. But the reality is, 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:32.560 when you look at every single European summit that we've 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:35.280 covered every time we've been here, the Europeans don't want 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:37.000 to be blamed for a no deal breakfit. They don't 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.320 want to push a prime minister who's close to perhaps 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:43.760 getting this deal and force everyone into a chaotic exit 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.320 from the EU. They Alvays said the best way to 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:48.680 leave is with a deal. So the market is looking 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:50.959 at those two things. The prime minister that is edge 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:53.920 and closer to winning the vote, even if it was 0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:56.400 delayed on Saturday, is then delayed again today, but also 0:02:56.440 --> 0:02:58.680 the fact that the EU will probably give more time 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.280 and they don't want to go no deal either. So Marian, 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:04.160 what we did not get a vote today, clearly, Um, 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.440 what our next steps would you say over the next 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:10.160 several days. Well, there's a huge bill that the government 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:12.760 needs to put forward, which is all the legislation going 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:16.880 into Brexit, and then's also a possibility for other MPs 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.680 to try to amend that deal, and that's perhaps when 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:21.640 it gets difficult for the government because one of the 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:24.760 things that the poor Johnson said is that he does 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:26.960 not want to be put in a position where his 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:31.440 deal gets amended so many times that it becomes meaningless. 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.560 So that is perhaps a source of tension there. And 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:36.600 of course we also know that he's trying to push 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:40.080 for a general election, and that is again another factor 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:42.040 that the market has priced in and to stern, which 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:43.560 is the fact that if we do go to a 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.640 new election, although the situation is very volatile, the polls 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:49.360 would suggest that he would increase his majority and that 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:52.920 makes passing anything much more easy. So I want to 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:56.320 talk about the theatrics of this, because John Burco is 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:58.960 a genius when it comes to the theatrics. His voice 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.960 absolutely has the inflections. I loved how right before he 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:06.800 made the decision, he paused, he castigated someone for for 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:09.280 for for for delaying him, but he paused, and he 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.640 you know, really laid it out. Uh and and you 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:16.120 know with perfect timing. How how has this sort of 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:19.880 event risen him in a way that he hadn't previously 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:23.880 been I mean, who is John Burko? I mean he 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:27.440 he has definitely become a star and and and everyone 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:29.120 knows who this man is. But also I think the 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:32.560 fact that he has become so well known has also 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:33.960 put him on the spot. And there is a lot 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:37.240 of criticism in terms of what is driving his decisions 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:39.880 and his motivations. And I'm sure you know just as 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:42.080 well as I do that in many occasions he has 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:46.480 been criticized for being seen as to remaining is allowing 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:51.159 the remaining side of the parliament. You should, by the way, 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:55.440 you should trademark that remaining but go on. But um 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:57.520 and and that has become an istion and and it's 0:04:57.560 --> 0:05:00.200 and it's obviously an obstacle today for the premise to 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:03.400 put this vote um quickly to vote, which he wants 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:05.400 to do. But it was also an issue for the 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.359 reason may And you're right, there's a lot of optics. 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:09.960 There's a lot of theatrical moves that we see and 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.000 we saw also a lot of UM optics on Saturday 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.400 when the Prime Minister sent out three letters which essentially 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:18.440 contradicted each other to the EU, one of which he 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:20.640 asked for more time than another one which he said 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:22.800 I actually don't want more time, and then a third 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:25.080 one in which he said if I do get an extension, 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:27.560 it's going to be bad for us both. So I 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:29.760 think we're used to this, and what it highlights is 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:32.320 aid this is still a country is very divided, but 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:35.440 to h there's many scenars that could still play out, 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:37.760 and of course you have the the the general alection, 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:39.920 which is still very much looming on everyone. So everyone 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:42.479 wants to be seen as fighting for something and for 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:45.039 the EU. I guess at this point, after three years 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:46.880 of a lot of back and forth, they're just not 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.200 surprised by any of this anymore. They do think that 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:52.520 this is almost a country that has become so difficult 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:54.960 to read and there is no clarity coming out of 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:59.039 UM the Parliament. Which is interesting for for the EU side, however, 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:02.240 is that the perception around Brexit has really changed. At 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:04.320 the start of the year, you could hear many voices 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:07.239 is still felt Brexit could be undone who's still pushed 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.880 for a second referendum. But at this point you do 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:11.760 get a sense that the Europeans just want to get 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:14.599 it done with, especially because there is a new Commission, 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:18.159 there is a different set of priorities and in a 0:06:18.200 --> 0:06:20.640 different agenda, and they feel like right now is probably 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:23.600 the time to move on. All right, Finally, Maria, just quickly, 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.159 is a couple thirty one a real date or do 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:28.640 you think there will be an extension beyond that? Well, 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:30.440 the truth is when you look at Brexit, all of 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:34.520 these UH deadlines have become completely meaningless. They every time 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:36.680 we've been in a make or break moment, there's been 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:39.040 more time. Granted, if you look at the legislation now 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:41.599 and if you look at the UK law, well, the 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.640 UK would crash out without a deal in a week's 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:47.760 time if it doesn't get that extension. The question is, 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:50.080 with that extension, which has now been asked, would it 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:53.000 would that be rejected by the Europeans. Well, you heard 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:54.920 from Eminuel Macron and Jean Call do you occur the 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:56.920 head of the European Commission last week that they do 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.200 not see a need for more time because there is 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:01.880 a new deal that We're for everyone, but the reality 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:04.440 is if you don't give more time, the UK would 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.520 crash out, and that's something that nobody wants. I guess 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:10.600 the debate is around the length of the extension. Do 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:12.920 you just go for a short technical extension and the 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:15.840 hope that that can focus everyone's minds and get the 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:18.360 legislation you need in order to leave, or do you 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:20.680 actually go, well, you know, we need more time, and 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.440 then that opens many other scenarios, which, as you know, 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:26.560 the vote, the people's vote, second referendum and so on. 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:28.440 But it's tricker for the Europeans because they do not 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:31.760 want to be seen as interfering in the politics. Maria today, 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:33.240 I thank you so much for joining us, and you're 0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:35.560 very busy in Brussels right now with all that's going on. 0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:39.480 Thank you so much. Maria covers the Europe for Bloomberg 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:41.840 Television and Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone 0:07:41.880 --> 0:08:00.240 from Brussels. Well, it looks like the US and miner 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:04.320 are making some headway on what is being coined Phase 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:07.760 one type of trade deal. To get the latest we 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:12.080 welcome Troy Gaski, Partner co Chief Investment Officer, Senior Portfolio 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:16.640 manager at Skybridge. So Troy again, it looks like there 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:19.559 is sub movement. We're having trade delegations go back and forth. 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:22.880 What is your sense of how the US China trade 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:26.600 negotiations are going right now? Well, the good news is 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:28.600 it looks like there's at least a short term to 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:31.640 ton and that was really being priced into market. So 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.760 a week ago, in terms of the left tail, the 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:38.760 probability of escalation or a significantly negative outcome went down 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:41.439 and that's why I saw markets rally because we think 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:43.960 what's going on here is markets are trying to focus 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:47.440 on the fact that both for the US and China 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:50.920 UH clearly they're both interested in having some type of 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:54.440 uh lack of deterioration and at least a face saving 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:57.760 deal focused on agriculture and energy and then pushing back 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:00.520 the thornier issues of IP STAFT and s SO support 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:03.520 into the post election and so we don't think the 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:08.520 coast is necessarily clear, but the probability of dramatic escalation 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:11.280 has gone down significantly, which we think has led to 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:13.760 the rallying markets late last week. Are you buying or 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:17.760 selling anything based on that development? Well, yeah, so from 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:21.560 our perspective on the margin. You know, a trade reconciliation 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:23.960 or at least lack of escalation should lead to a 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:26.520 steeper yel curve, which should lead to better NIM, which 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:29.560 should lead to better bank credit quality. So we have 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.719 a significant exposure in regional community bank credit. And when 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:35.440 we're looking into next year, a lot of the focus 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:37.719 on the outcome will be do interest rates continue to 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:40.880 drop or to at least stabilize here And so certainly 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:44.880 a right tail outcome or at least less escalation will 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:48.400 lead to better growth, better earnings, better NIM, which means 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:51.000 will more than likely continue to run those exposures as 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:55.280 opposed to cutting them. So try from the perspective of China, 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:58.040 what do you think the calculus is for China right now? 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:00.280 That seems like, you know, we were close to a 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:02.480 deal earlier in the year that might have had a 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.160 little bit of meat on the bone, but now both 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:06.800 sides seem to have pulled back. You think that they 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.079 are let's do a deal now, even if it's a 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:13.760 light deal, or let's just push it. Well, look from 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:16.240 there's two calculus, right, There's the Trump calculus and the 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:20.000 China perspective, right, and you know, as time has gone on. 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.400 We think it's become clear and clear to China that, 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:27.280 you know, if Trump loses reelection, right then they're gonna 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:30.160 have to deal with Warren, Pelosi and Schumer, who are 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.720 far more hawkish on China than even Trump. And to 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:35.920 give Pelosi and Humor credit their entire political careers, they've 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.520 been hawkish on China in terms of trade and the 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:41.600 impact on the middle of the working class. And now 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:44.880 you know, there's basically a non elite bipartisan consensus that 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.120 China has to be addressed. It's one of the few 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:50.320 areas of bipartisan consensus that we see, you know, whether 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:53.319 you're in the Bay Area of California or in the Midwest, 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:57.280 um and that China has to be addressed. So as 0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:01.680 China's economy continues to deteriorate in the contract election, you know, 0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:04.640 start to come into sharp relief, it's become more apparent, 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:06.920 we think, to China that's in their best interests to 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:10.040 de escalate the conflicts sooner rather than later. That doesn't 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:12.480 mean we have a sweeping agreement on s o E 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:15.880 support and I p SF, but it seemed like earlier 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:17.680 in the year they were willing to roll the dice 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:21.200 that if enough pain was inflicted on the U. S economy, 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.600 particularly the farm belt and the rust belt, that would 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:28.520 cause Trump in the American political system to capitulate. But 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:31.360 as time's gone on, they're realizing that what lurks around 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.520 the corner maybe a more severe confrontation if the folks 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:38.800 like Marco Rubio or Elizabeth Warren or Human Pelosi are 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:42.360 driving the policy discussions. So one thing that you knowed 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:46.160 is that just simply a Phase one kind of deal 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:49.920 that de escalates isn't really enough at this point to 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:52.880 undo some of the damage of the uncertainty that we've 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:56.680 seen around trade. What would it take to reverse some 0:11:56.800 --> 0:12:00.319 of the economic damage that you see being in lected 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:04.440 by how long the trade scribblers has carried been carried out? Yeah, 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:05.880 I think it's at this point it's going to be 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:08.920 more comprehensive. So we need phase one right where at 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:12.840 least you addressed the trade balance in ways that have 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:16.040 teeth that markets can actually analyze. It's not some vague 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:18.520 promise coming out of a White House meeting. And then 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.560 you need to see some contours of how whether it's 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:25.280 reconciliation panels or some type of w T O in 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:28.000 internal w t O mechanism, meaning it would be outside 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.080 the w t O but just focused on the China 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:34.880 and US administration to address ongoing trade conflict. UM. And 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:36.800 then from there I think we would need some Brexit 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:41.440 resolution and then also a better understanding of how the 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:45.199 contours of the one policy coming out of DC will 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:49.120 look like. UM, So it's not just a trade reconciliation 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.880 at this point. UM, it would also be Brexit plus 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:56.719 some idea of policy coming from one. If we got 0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.840 all three of those, which again at this stage looks unlikely, 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:02.720 and next month or so you could see CAPEX bounce 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:05.560 back up to roughly five percent, maybe three to five, 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.480 which is a healthy growth rate, certainly much better than 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:11.800 the contraction we're seeing today. But it's you're really hard 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.920 pressed to see what would lead to the high single 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.640 digit growth rates that we enjoyed very briefly in late 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:22.400 seventeen early eighteen, given the dramatic slowing a global growth. So, 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:24.680 you know, I think, for the time being is a 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:27.360 market participant. The best you can hope for us the escalation, 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:32.000 a gradual return of investor and CEO confidence, and then 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.959 some chance to grow it close to two percent again 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.240 over the next six to nine months. More than likely 0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:39.880 that will be stuck in this one and a half 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:43.840 to two percent range for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, Troy, 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:45.679 I ask you, thank you so much for being with us. 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:49.560 Troy Gayski is a partner, co chief investment Officer and 0:13:49.640 --> 0:14:10.480 senior portfolio manager at Skybridge Capital. All Right, well, the 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:14.920 costs for the drugmakers associated with the opioid crisis are 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.320 really starting to add up. We had some more news today, 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.080 some more fines. Let's get the latest from Max Neeson, 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.840 Max's biotech, farm and healthcare calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion. Joins 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.720 us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. So another 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:30.560 set of fines coming down, some litigation still out there, Max, 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:33.440 what's the latest year? Yeah? Absolutely, So. This was a 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:37.000 settlement for the three largest distributor drug distributors in the 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:41.120 country and have with two Ohio counties. This is the 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:46.440 first federal trial of you know, trying to assigned blame 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:50.520 and extract damages over the opioid crisis. Basically, what this 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.360 does is delay a trial that that was would have 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.680 been potentially um troublesome or or led to a large 0:14:56.800 --> 0:15:00.000 verdict UM and and lets them work on a large 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:03.040 your settlement works. That's still going on, I think for 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:06.320 for other drug makers have already settled with these two counties. 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:09.160 It just sort of kicks the can so they can 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:11.640 try to come up with a broader resolution that you know, 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:14.400 there's still thousands upon thousands of these suits out there 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:16.600 and they still need to work that out. It seemed 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:18.680 like they were getting close to a deal that might 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.280 have been valued at as much as fifty billion dollars, 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:23.600 but UM that kind of fell apart due to apparently 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.880 some objections from from local and county governments. Do we 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:29.240 have a sense of how big the settlement has to 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.240 be to sort of remove the uncertainty? I mean, what 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:36.800 sort of the brank breakpoint of when the settlement doesn't 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:40.680 necessarily get received as good news by simply taking away 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:44.040 the uncertainty of these opioid cases. You know, I think 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:46.440 there's there's still a good amount of room before we 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:50.560 get there, just because I think UM shareholders are just 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:52.920 sort of so hungry for relief when it gets to 0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:55.120 the point for some of these drug makers that have 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:58.840 heavy debtloads that you know, it starts to make solvency 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.960 or our meeting credit evidence a little little risky, then 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:03.760 then you might see a break point. But but I 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:06.040 think there's some wiggle room, especially when it comes to 0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:09.520 the distributors and and uh, a company like Johnson and Johnson, 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:12.560 which can afford pretty much anything. I think you've got 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:14.440 a way to go before it would be seen as 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.560 anything but relief. So, Max, are we at this stage 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:19.760 now where we want to get all these thousands of 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:23.280 suits together, wrap them all up, and then get all 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.160 the companies that are on the hook here and then 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.320 assigned blame and get one massive global settlement. Is that 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.240 kind of the goal here? That's exactly the goal. And 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:34.400 and that that was sort of one of the explicit 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:37.280 goals of the judge that they've consolidated all of these 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:40.360 suits under just because you know, then you actually get 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:44.000 money into communities more rapidly. Um, you know, you resolve 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:46.800 this uncertain instead of dragging it out over you know, 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:49.720 years and years in many cases, which there's a lot 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:53.120 of variation and um generally you know, not not all 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.120 that productive for anybody involved. So that that's the hope, 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:58.080 and there still seems to be a chance of it happening. 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:00.640 It just isn't gonna come this morning, is I think 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.760 some investors were hoping, which is why you see shares 0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:06.360 of the distributors and Inteva down today. So far, Where 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.120 is the money going? Is it going to people who 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:12.520 had loved ones who died or who lost productivity as 0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.399 a result of addictions, or is it going to municipalities. 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:19.560 It generally will be going to municipalities, although you know, 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:22.720 it depends on the structure of the settlement. Um, all 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:24.520 of that still to be worked out. Well, we'll see 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:27.440 that in the details. Um. You know. I think that's 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.560 really the fascinating thing to think about, is what comes next? 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:34.720 How do you actually direct that money in a productive way? Um? 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:38.720 I I hope that that happens. But what what what? 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.159 What would be productive? I mean in my opinion, and 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:43.760 I think it would have to be coupled with some 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:46.800 some reforms as to how we actually spend money on 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:49.479 opio treatment the first place, and and a dramatic increase 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:55.000 in investment in making medication assisted treatment more more available. 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:57.679 There's sort of a stigma against it, um, you know, 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:01.199 because we have the sort of twelves a a based 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:04.679 model where it's abstinence or nothing, and there's been just 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:07.800 resistance communities to having things like method o clinics or 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:10.840 or making it really easy for doctors to to prescribe 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:14.480 and administer that sort of medication. But it works. UM, 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:16.760 that's the important thing. It's been shown over and over 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:18.399 again to be one of the few things. You know, 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:22.240 opioddiction changes your brain chemistry. You have to account for that. UM, 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:24.280 just going to a treatment center and and you know, 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:27.160 just squaring off you need medication, you need to help 0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:30.520 in many cases and making that more available, making safe 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.359 injection sites available, these things that that are are a 0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:37.240 little more controversial but more effective. UM. That needs to happen. 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:40.840 If the money goes there, then then great. But if it, UM, 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:42.919 if it just sort of gets wrapped up, you know, 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.720 goes to financing other things and municipalities, then it won't 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:48.920 be quite as effective. So we'll see Max News and 0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:50.840 thank you so much for joining us. I'm sure we'll 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:53.840 be talking about this repeatedly as these cases go on. 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:10.560 If you've ever wanted to watch someone else watch a 0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:13.880 movie or a show to see their reaction, this next 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:16.440 guest has you covered. And we're so glad to bring 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.320 in Derek Forbes chief executive officer of Stardust, which is 0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:21.879 a very cool name I have to say here in 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:24.520 our interactive broker studios. Can you just start by saying 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.600 what is Stardust? Hey, guys, thanks for having me on. Yes. So, 0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:30.160 startusts a social media app all about movies and TV 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:33.560 shows where you can talk about the latest episodes you've 0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:35.480 been watching, find out what people had to say about 0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:37.440 movies and theaters, and figure out what you want to 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:40.440 watch next. So who is on it gives a sense 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:43.280 of kind of who is on this app and who 0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:45.320 do you want to be on this app? Yeah, so, 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:47.720 I guess there's a whole lot of entertainment fans on 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:51.560 their passionate entertainment fans that love talking about shows they've 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:55.040 been watching, obsessing about the latest episode. You know, think 0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:57.080 Game of Thrones people got really into it. They like 0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:59.040 to talk about what happened on the episode, what was 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:02.239 going to happen next week, predictions, theories, as well as 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:05.520 just hearing analysis and figuring out what they might like 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:10.640 to watch next. So how many people have actually downloaded 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:12.720 the app? Yeah, so we're around about a hundred thousand 0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.159 users at the moment. It's pretty new we're really just 0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.320 starting to get going with our marketing efforts now and 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:19.440 hoping to get that in front of a much larger audience. 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:22.560 And I guess that that there's sort of a flip 0:20:22.600 --> 0:20:25.520 side to this, which is the more information you get 0:20:25.560 --> 0:20:29.600 as to what people like, how they talk about films, 0:20:29.640 --> 0:20:33.720 that it can be monetized, right, that data. Yeah, Well, 0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:36.399 the whole idea of this came from hearing from a 0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:39.840 lot of film and TV executives that every time they 0:20:39.840 --> 0:20:42.800 come out with a new title, it's a whole exercise 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:44.679 to try and find an audience for that and then 0:20:44.720 --> 0:20:47.040