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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Ereate podcast, available every morning

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Thursday, the

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Speaker 2: twenty eighth of November in London. I'm Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 3: And Imana Edwards. Coming up today. French borrowing costs match

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Speaker 3: Greek levels for the first time, as France's finance minister

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Speaker 3: warns the country risks losing control.

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Speaker 2: Analysis from Bloomberg Economics suggests the Chancellor's tax hikes could

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Speaker 2: cost UK businesses one hundred and thirty thousand jobs.

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Speaker 3: Plus facing a much higher rate of rejection. Research shows

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Speaker 3: black graduates are twice as likely to be denied top

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Speaker 3: jobs in the UK.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 3: France's finance minister says the country risks losing control if

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Speaker 3: it doesn't pass a budget. Antoine Armond was speaking to

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Speaker 3: France's BFMTV as the country has seen its borrowing costs

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Speaker 3: rise over the looming crisis. The government faces a potential

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Speaker 3: no confident vote over the budget, which could house Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister Michelle Barnier within weeks. Our Paris Bureau chief Alan

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Speaker 3: Catz says far right leader Marine Le penn is the

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Speaker 3: key figure to one.

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Speaker 4: Is she going to vote to overthrow Barnier's government or not.

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Speaker 4: The trend has been, at least in her rhetoric for

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Speaker 4: the last couple of days a week or so, has

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Speaker 4: been more and more strident and seems more and more

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Speaker 4: likely that she would vote for that. That said, it

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Speaker 4: could all just be political brinksmanship and she's just trying

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Speaker 4: to extract some concessions from him, and she might sort

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Speaker 4: of veer away at the last minute, and we really

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Speaker 4: don't know for the moment what's going to happen.

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Speaker 3: Our Paris bureau chief there Alan Katz, he was speaking

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Speaker 3: after the French finance minister said he's prepared to make

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Speaker 3: concessions on the budget to avoid the government being toppled.

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Speaker 3: And this perhaps is an important point to linger on

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Speaker 3: just a moment because as a result of that we

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Speaker 3: have seen French over German spreads come down. They're now

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Speaker 3: eighty three basis points from an earlier high of eighty six,

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Speaker 3: so that is important. Barnier does face another hurdle today, though,

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Speaker 3: when left wing parties have called a vote in the

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Speaker 3: National Assembly to repeal major reforms to the pension system,

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Speaker 3: which will pass last year.

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Speaker 1: Without easing of French bond deals.

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Speaker 2: Comes after a number of unhappy milestones on markets over

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Speaker 2: the political turmoil. The ten year yields matched Greece's for

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Speaker 2: the first time in trading a little earlier after the

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Speaker 2: spread over German yells widened to the most since twenty twelve. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Klaus Bader, Global Chief Economists Associated General says market spheres

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Speaker 2: may prove to be overblown.

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Speaker 5: We might want to talk this up to be a crisis,

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Speaker 5: but it is not. It can still turn into a crisis.

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Speaker 5: And much of course, if the responsibility lies on the

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Speaker 5: extreme right in France, are they going to be the

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Speaker 5: greatest ruptors or are they going to support the minority

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Speaker 5: government of Bonnie to try to get in particularly the

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Speaker 5: fiscal house in order and of course you know what

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Speaker 5: they call friends lolli. Is the population going to put

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Speaker 5: up with what has to be done in order to

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Speaker 5: get public finances back on an even keel.

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Speaker 2: Class Bader from SUSAGE General there speaking earlier on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: France's finances will face scrutiny from SMP Global Ratings on Friday,

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Speaker 2: which could be the next catalyst for market moves, thus,

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Speaker 2: after both Fitch and Moody's gave it a negative outlook

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Speaker 2: last month.

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Speaker 3: Back to the UK, the tax rises on UK employers

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Speaker 3: announced in last month's budget could cost up to one

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Speaker 3: hundred and thirty thousand jobs. That is, according to new

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Speaker 3: analysis by Bloomberg Economics of Chancellor Rachel Reeves, twenty six

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Speaker 3: billion pounds of tax hikes. They say if bosses deal

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Speaker 3: with higher employer national insurance contributions by reducing employment, it

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Speaker 3: could mean the jobless rate rising by as much as

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Speaker 3: zero point four percentage points. The base case from Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Economics is that the impact of Reeve's employer tax hike

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Speaker 3: will be spread evenly between prices, wage growth, hours worked,

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Speaker 3: and profit margins.

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Speaker 2: The UK's pharmaceutical, medical, and transport equipment industries will be

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Speaker 2: among the most exposed to any new tariffs which could

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Speaker 2: be imposed by Donald Trump's administration. That's according to UN

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Speaker 2: data analyzed by mckenzy's Global Institute, which shows the US

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Speaker 2: as the top export destination for nine UK sectors. That's

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Speaker 2: greater than the exposure for similar industries in France and Germany.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's UK Economy Reporter arena, and Gal says the country

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Speaker 2: faces substantial risk.

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Speaker 6: The UK economy is definitely more exposed to US tariffs

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Speaker 6: than we think it is.

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Speaker 1: The UK likes to think of hisself.

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Speaker 6: As a services superpower, which of course it is, so

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Speaker 6: two thirds of our trade with.

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Speaker 1: The US actually is in services. However, the UK is

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Speaker 1: not immune to Trumpterv's.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Arena and Girls speaking. Their trade between America and

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Speaker 2: Britain was worth an excess of three hundred billion pounds

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Speaker 2: in the year et the end of March, but almost

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Speaker 2: two thirds of that came from services, which are not

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Speaker 2: expected to be hit by tariffs.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump had dinner with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, the

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Speaker 3: president Alex Marra Lago Estate in Florida last night. Zuckerberg

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Speaker 3: and Trump have had a consentious relationship in the past.

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Speaker 3: In January twenty twenty one, Facebook banned the then president

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Speaker 3: in the wake of the attack on the US capital. However,

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Speaker 3: the two men have recently made a men Zuckerberg called

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Speaker 3: Trump's response to his first assassination attempt badass, and congratulated

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Speaker 3: him on his recent election win. I don't think that's

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Speaker 3: the word I've ever said on radio before.

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Speaker 1: Seven, first time for everything.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, the US is weighing additional curves on sales of

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Speaker 2: semiconductor equipment and AI memory chips to China. The latest restrictions,

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Speaker 2: which may be unveiled as soon as next week, would

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Speaker 2: stop short of earlier proposals and defect fewer Huawei suppliers.

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Speaker 1: His Bloomberg's Wi Wu, we are seeing that.

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Speaker 7: The bidministration is weighing additional measures to fan US access

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Speaker 7: to equipment and the AI memory chips, but at a

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Speaker 7: sent time. Previously we reported that there's going to be

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Speaker 7: a six supplier cell sanction, but now what it looks

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Speaker 7: like the Biden mustration is only through section two.

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Speaker 2: So that was Bloomberg's w Wu, who says measures following

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Speaker 2: months of deliberations by US officials and negotiations with allies

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Speaker 2: and in Japan and the Netherlands. The Biden administration has

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Speaker 2: also faced intense lobbying by American chip equipment makers, who've

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Speaker 2: warned that tougher measures would hurt their businesses.

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Speaker 3: Black applicants are twice as likely to be denied top

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Speaker 3: graduate jobs in the UK. That is according to new

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Speaker 3: research from consultancy Bane in partnership with the Black Talent Charter.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's at tewa Adebayo has the story.

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Speaker 8: Black graduates apply for more roles in finance, law and

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Speaker 8: professional services, but are half as likely to receive an offer,

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Speaker 8: and a new survey shows that rejection rates for those

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Speaker 8: applying from outside the country's leading universities are even higher.

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Speaker 8: That's a factor that does not apply to non black applicants,

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Speaker 8: according to the analysis. The findings come after Bloomberg reported

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Speaker 8: that city firms are pulling back on diversity efforts. More broadly,

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Speaker 8: Natasha Ferguson, COO of diversity charity the Taylor Bennett Foundation,

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Speaker 8: says conditions that some firms prevent progression for ethnic minorities.

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Speaker 6: The culture attracts young talent in, but the culture pushes

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Speaker 6: middle talent out. Middle management is where you see the

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Speaker 6: most concentration of diverse talent at the moment across all sectors.

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Speaker 8: That was Natasha Ferguson from the Taylor Bennett Foundation. When

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Speaker 8: it comes to graduates, the research puts the disparity down

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Speaker 8: to recruitment barriers, including socioeconomic factors and a lack of

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Speaker 8: knowledge about the corporate world in London. Teewa at a

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Speaker 8: Bayo Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Those are your top stories on the markets. The stock

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Speaker 2: six hundred is six tenths of one percent higher. The

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Speaker 2: cutcarnt also up by six tenths of one percent. US

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Speaker 2: markets closed for a holiday. We are seeing oil prices,

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Speaker 2: though a touch lower. Brank Crews down three tenths of

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Speaker 2: one percent after OPEC plus delayed a planned meeting from

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Speaker 2: Sunday until next Thursday. Now, in a moment, we'll get

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Speaker 2: more on the political turmoil here in France, plus get

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Speaker 2: further details of that Bloomberg Economics analysis on the effect

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Speaker 2: of the Chancellor's tax hi gun employers.

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Speaker 1: But another story that I've.

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Speaker 2: Been reading this morning that I want to talk to

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Speaker 2: you about is Beth Code from Bloomberg Opinion has been

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Speaker 2: writing about advice from Warren Buffett, but not about investing

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Speaker 2: about life, Okay.

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Speaker 1: So she points to the fact that actually.

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Speaker 2: If you read it detail the things that Warren Buffett

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Speaker 2: writes oftentimes when he's making statements or he actually kind

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Speaker 2: of couches them with some life advice. And she points

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Speaker 2: to his letter that came out on Monday, which was

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Speaker 2: about donating a billion dollars in Berkshire. Hathaway shares to

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Speaker 2: for family foundations as actually advice on how you should

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Speaker 2: leave behind a strong family, or how to leave behind

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Speaker 2: a strong family and a lasting legacy. So this includes

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Speaker 2: things like don't create dynasties. He says, you should be leaving.

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Speaker 3: Children just in case I was thinking of creating.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, yes, exactly.

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Speaker 2: I know there are many keen listeners wondering that when

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Speaker 2: willynasty before Yeah, but this is the idea that you

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Speaker 2: should leave your children enough so they can do anything,

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Speaker 2: but not enough that they can do nothing.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I liked the wording of that specific advice. Parents

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Speaker 3: should leave their children enough so they can do anything,

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Speaker 3: but not enough that they can do nothing. I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure how many people this will pass that option, indeed,

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Speaker 3: but it's good to know that Warren Buffettans, through these

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Speaker 3: thought processes, has decided you should not leave too much

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Speaker 3: to your children.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, and another point, given that as Thanksgiving in the US,

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Speaker 2: to also acknowledge your good fortune and as he points out,

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Speaker 2: blessed Indeed he's indeed, he's known for a course pointing

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Speaker 2: out that he attributes out of a success to luck

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Speaker 2: as well a little bit less luck, though perhaps for

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Speaker 2: the government in France, as we've been talking about this morning.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, the Finance Minister Antoine Armand saying he's prepared

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Speaker 2: to make concessions on the twenty twenty five budget to

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Speaker 2: avoid opposition parties toppling the government. We've got Bloomberg opinion columns.

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Speaker 2: Leonel Laurent with us from Paris for more. Leonelle, good morning.

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Speaker 2: At this day, how close does the government look to collapsing?

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Speaker 9: So just to understand how we'd get to that collapse,

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Speaker 9: it would come from a no confidence vote after a budget, right,

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Speaker 9: and this does not happen in history. You're not supposed

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Speaker 9: to get and you haven't traditionally got this kind of

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Speaker 9: rejection of the government after the budget. Now, what you

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Speaker 9: don't want is what's happened recently, which is a coin flip.

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Speaker 1: Right, those are the odds.

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Speaker 9: La Pen has become increasingly vocal about a kind of

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Speaker 9: no confidence motion, and even if on balance still looks

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Speaker 9: incredibly risky for her to do such a move, you

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Speaker 9: don't want a queen flip. So I think it's quite

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Speaker 9: sensible for the government to say we will look at

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Speaker 9: concessions and try to bring the odds of that down,

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Speaker 9: because I still think you just do not want a

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Speaker 9: situation like this to hang on a kind of fifty

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Speaker 9: fifty odds.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and Leon know, we heard from Marine La Penn's

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Speaker 3: party that the National Rally have said they hadn't decided

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Speaker 3: whether they would basically bring the government down or not,

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Speaker 3: so they've left that card still to be played in

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Speaker 3: the meantime. Then the Finance Minister Antoine Armand saying that

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Speaker 3: they are ready to make concessions. So that's the next

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Speaker 3: step here is it they see if they can find

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Speaker 3: something that will make this budget acceptable to Marine la Penn.

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Speaker 3: Because this seems to have influenced bond spreads a little,

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Speaker 3: we're seeing a little bit of a retreat in that

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Speaker 3: spread of French oaights over German buns.

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Speaker 9: Absolutely, and it makes sense because we're still quite in

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Speaker 9: the realm of manageable risk and manageable brinkmanship. La Penn

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Speaker 9: has made clear what she calls her red lines. She's

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Speaker 9: talked about, for example, taxes on electricity. The problem here

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Speaker 9: is basically that France and need a budget, and it

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Speaker 9: needs to also have a budget that's acceptable to markets

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Speaker 9: and European partners. So that means a lot of pain

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Speaker 9: for everybody. And obviously in France we are not a

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Speaker 9: country that is used to quote unquote austerity or even

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Speaker 9: any kind of budget discipline. So people are understandably shouting

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Speaker 9: the loudest and beating their chest and saying enough, this

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Speaker 9: is really unfair. So there is I think a bit

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Speaker 9: of corovy to this, and I think there is quite

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Speaker 9: sensible attempt to find some concession that gives Lapenn the

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Speaker 9: win that she's looking for and keeps the government.

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Speaker 2: Going, because of course, you know the options. If the

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Speaker 2: government does fall, there can't be an election until next year,

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Speaker 2: so we would end up essentially in a political limbus

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Speaker 2: situation that surely doesn't benefit anyone.

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Speaker 9: Well, the thing is, I don't think we want to

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Speaker 9: know what that's like. What kind of worries me about

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Speaker 9: the debate of the moment is we are already starting

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Speaker 9: to say a bit like the US shutdown. When that

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Speaker 9: comes along, we're starting to openly say, oh, what would happen, Well,

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Speaker 9: it wouldn't be so bad because we go to a

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Speaker 9: sort of rollover budget. The institutions would sort of take

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Speaker 9: over this kind of feeling that actually it wouldn't be

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Speaker 9: so bad. And that is exactly the kind of mentality

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Speaker 9: you do not want in a country like France, the

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Speaker 9: size of France and with parties like the Pens and

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Speaker 9: min Onstan's cloak.

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Speaker 3: The power and just there's a pension vote happening today.

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Speaker 3: Is this linked, Lionel or is this a separate.

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Speaker 9: This is separate, So there's actually less attention paid to

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Speaker 9: this because I think there's less Likelihod of it passing.

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Speaker 9: The problem though, is that to get it not to pass,

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Speaker 9: we're seeing all sorts of parliamentary antics that are more

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Speaker 9: like sort of the UK dream Brexit or even the

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Speaker 9: UK in the nineteen seventies.

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Speaker 1: It's bilibustering.

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Speaker 9: It's all sorts of tactics to basically stop this motion

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Speaker 9: getting through. I think if it ever did get through,

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Speaker 9: that would be a huge game change, because if you

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Speaker 9: have a France that is rolling back pension reform, rolling

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Speaker 9: back reforms at a time when it should be trying

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Speaker 9: to find even more savings, I think all bets are

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Speaker 9: off in terms of how the markets would react.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Leonel Rol Bloomberg Opinion, Columbust, thank you very much

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Speaker 2: for joining us from Paris. You can read later spaces.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Bloomberg dot Com Forward slash opinion. Let's

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Speaker 2: go next to this new analysis from Bloomberg Economics that

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Speaker 2: says that tax risers for UK businesses announced by the

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Speaker 2: Chancellor last month could cost as many as one hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty thousand jobs. That's if employers choose to pass

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Speaker 2: on the burden of the twenty six billion pounds in

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Speaker 2: tax hikes, which comes mainly from changes to national insurance

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Speaker 2: contributions for employers. We've got Bloomberg's CHEF UK economist Dan

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Speaker 2: Hansen with us for more. Dan, how did you arrive

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Speaker 2: at this number and how likely an outcome do job

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Speaker 2: cut seem from these tax risers.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, So what we did in terms of coming to

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Speaker 10: the number is that we looked at sort of some

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Speaker 10: we're trying to put some guardrails around this debate, I

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Speaker 10: think because you read, you know, over the past few weeks,

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Speaker 10: you've read a lot about what may or may not

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Speaker 10: happen with this, and we were trying to just from

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Speaker 10: at least from a macro perspective, assess, you know, look

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Speaker 10: at how sensitive firms have been to rising costs in

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Speaker 10: the past, and apply a sort of top end estimate

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Speaker 10: to how many how many job losses there could be,

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Speaker 10: and also on the flip side, how much prices could

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Speaker 10: rise if they choose to choose to adjust to the

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Speaker 10: to the higher NIX costs through that channel as well,

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Speaker 10: because of course there are lots of ways they could

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Speaker 10: sort of take this on. We know it's coming, it's

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Speaker 10: possible they you know, wages don't increase as fast as possible.

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Speaker 10: They change their hiring hands or even made people off

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Speaker 10: squeeze their margins or put it through prices. So we

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Speaker 10: were just looking at what are the sort of we

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Speaker 10: think of the sort of extremities. You know, our base

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Speaker 10: case is that it's probably spread across the range of

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Speaker 10: these things, and no one is sort of the dominating factor.

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Speaker 10: But if there is one that dominates, you know, the

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Speaker 10: scale of it isn't insignificant.

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Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, It's really interesting, isn't.

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Speaker 3: Because as soon as this measure was announced, this tax

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Speaker 3: raising measure, there's a lot of political debate about how

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Speaker 3: exactly this was going to find its way into or

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Speaker 3: not affecting workers and their pay packets and their higher

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Speaker 3: ability and the hours they work and all the rest,

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Speaker 3: and the politics very quickly muddies the water. So really

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Speaker 3: interesting to see your analysis down and the assessment as

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Speaker 3: you're making. So what sort of shift would that mean

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Speaker 3: for the overall UK labor market.

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Speaker 10: Well, I mean one hundred and thirty thousand jobs. It

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Speaker 10: sounds like a lot of jobs. But you know, if

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Speaker 10: you think about it in terms of the unemployment rate,

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Speaker 10: it's zero point four percentage point on the unemployment rate.

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Speaker 10: So the unemployment rate now is at four point three percent,

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Speaker 10: it would take you up to you know, four point

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Speaker 10: seven percent. I think that doesn't sound huge, but actually

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Speaker 10: we've got into a place, I think in the UK

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Speaker 10: where we're so used to a four percent unemployment rate.

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Speaker 10: If we're suddenly closing in on five percent unemployment rate,

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Speaker 10: I think the sort of dynamics change, particularly when you

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Speaker 10: think about well, there are two.

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Speaker 1: Things to think about.

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Speaker 10: One is, obviously you've got the Bank of England and

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Speaker 10: the interest rate angle. But the second is that historically

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Speaker 10: there's a very tight relationship between job security and how

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Speaker 10: much individuals tend to save. If you're worried about your

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Speaker 10: job security, you tend to be to tend to save

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Speaker 10: more money. So you get this sort of feedback loop

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Speaker 10: on the economy where you get job loss is but

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Speaker 10: also people become more cautious about their spending, so it

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Speaker 10: becomes a sort of self fulfilling prophecy. And I think

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Speaker 10: that's the interesting the interesting one in terms of how

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Speaker 10: it would play out, because I think no one's really

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Speaker 10: expecting the jobs market. Everyone's sort of seeing the jobs

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Speaker 10: market loosening modestly but not cratering. You know, if you

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Speaker 10: have this this sort of step change, I think it

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Speaker 10: would just create a sort of obviously it's a negative dynamic,

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Speaker 10: but a dynamic that not many people are expecting for

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Speaker 10: the coming year.

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Speaker 2: What's the alternative choice for companies if they don't go

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Speaker 2: down the job cutting roots, is that price rises?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, so, I mean there are quite a lot so

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Speaker 10: they can It's not just job losses. Even in terms

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Speaker 10: of thinking about employment, it's it's ours as well. Think

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Speaker 10: about total hours work. They can scale back the number

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Speaker 10: of hours people work. They can take the hit in

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Speaker 10: their margins. But if you look at the data on margins,

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Speaker 10: at least in a macro level, they look like they're

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Speaker 10: sort of squeezed at the moment, So that may not

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Speaker 10: be somewhere that firms can sort of take take the

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Speaker 10: cost your right prices is another another channel. Slower wage

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Speaker 10: growth is another way they can deal with it. And

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Speaker 10: the final one, which I think is very unlikely, but

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Speaker 10: it is sort of if you look in an economics

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Speaker 10: textbook it will tell you it's the possibility is faster

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Speaker 10: productivity growth, which is you just become more efficient so

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Speaker 10: you're costly. Yeah, you know this is what we needed

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Speaker 10: to solve the productivity cost.

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Speaker 1: I've heard you tell me before that we needed as well. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, that's the conundru in the Bank of England

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Speaker 3: have been wrestling with for a very long time. Then, Dan,

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Speaker 3: so what does this mean for the BOE If you've

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Speaker 3: got you know, this complex, complex dynamics then playing out

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Speaker 3: in the in the market. I suppose they are doing

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Speaker 3: the same analysis that you're doing to try and work

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Speaker 3: out which of these leavers businesses are going to pull

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Speaker 3: to try and minimize the impact they feel.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, well, I mean, I must be honest. I was

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Speaker 10: listening to Bailey at ts the Treasury Select Committee and

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Speaker 10: he said to Harriet Balwin, who is the used to

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Speaker 10: be the chair of the TSC, that they writing to

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Speaker 10: the TSC about sort of some of this sort of

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Speaker 10: sensitivity analysis. So I thought that sounds like a good idea,

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Speaker 10: so we might have have a go at that. So

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Speaker 10: the Bank's going to come out and say something about

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Speaker 10: this as seeming that letter gets published as well. I

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Speaker 10: think all forecasters, as far as I can tell at

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Speaker 10: the moment, are taking the assumption that it's sort of

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Speaker 10: evenly spread or broadly spread across all those different channels

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Speaker 10: we just discussed. So if you sort of look at

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Speaker 10: it through that lens, the impact isn't going to be

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Speaker 10: sort of anyone. No one channel dominates, there's no real

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Speaker 10: reason to think it's going to change the course of

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Speaker 10: the Bank of England. But obviously if one of these,

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Speaker 10: if employment dominates, the employment channel dominates, obviously that's calls

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Speaker 10: for interest rates potentially to be cust a little bit faster.

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Speaker 10: If the price is channel dominates, that obviously calls for

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Speaker 10: interest rates to cut to be CUSS a little bit slower.

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Speaker 10: I mean, the main point is that we just don't know,

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Speaker 10: and that's the half of the point of this analysis

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Speaker 10: is to put some sort of bands around where we

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Speaker 10: where we might head up end up. And also that

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Speaker 10: goes to where the bank are now, which is this

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Speaker 10: argument around gradual rate cuts is that they're just not

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Speaker 10: because this, This could go one way or the other.

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Speaker 1: They're just not sure.

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Speaker 10: They're discontinuing to sort of move it at a slow pace.

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Speaker 2: But it was interesting to hear the Chancellor when she

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Speaker 2: spoke to the CBI conference saying that essentially this this

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Speaker 2: was it, and that she wouldn't be extracting more from businesses.

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Speaker 2: I mean, is there a fear that you know that

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Speaker 2: there actually she might need to do more given the

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Speaker 2: fiscal situation down the line? Of course, we're you know,

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Speaker 2: we're told not to expect of the fiscal event until

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Speaker 2: next year.

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Speaker 10: But yeah, I mean, you know, they during the during

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Speaker 10: the election campaign, they labor said that they wouldn't raise

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Speaker 10: you know, seventy five percent of the tax space. They

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Speaker 10: made a commitment to do that, which is why we

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Speaker 10: ended up with this employer nix rise because they needed

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Speaker 10: to raise so much money. We've obviously had a rise

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Speaker 10: in interest rates since the budget, which will eat into

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Speaker 10: the very small amount of headroom that she has against

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Speaker 10: her fiscal her fiscal target. I mean, I think what

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Speaker 10: it tells you making that promise is that they'll attempt

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Speaker 10: to do it through squeezing the benefit bill, which is

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Speaker 10: obviously what Kirstan has been talking about recently and sort

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Speaker 10: of getting people back to work and creating work incentives.

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Speaker 10: So I think, you know, the world is the world

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Speaker 10: is very uncertain, and the amount of headroom that was

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Speaker 10: left in the budget against the fiscal rules was very small,

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Speaker 10: and it's not hard to see how you'd have to

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Speaker 10: come back and say we need to tighten fiscal policy

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Speaker 10: a little bit more to reach our goals. So I

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Speaker 10: think the promise just tells you that it will probably

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Speaker 10: come on the spending side and not the tax side.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for

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Speaker 2: all the news you need to start your day right

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Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe,