WEBVTT - Trump’s Tariffs, AI Takeover, Bitcoin, 2yrs Left | with Tom Bilyeu 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:02.960 Every time a new technology comes into place, it ends 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:05.600 up creating more jobs, not less, even though it always 0:00:05.600 --> 0:00:07.920 seems like it's about to put everybody out of work. 0:00:07.960 --> 0:00:09.799 And then it just opens up all these new avenues 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:11.600 and the people with the talents flood ind. 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:13.440 O case, more job go yes, but are the people 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:15.440 able to go into those jobs? No. 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:17.720 So this is where I want people to remember. Two 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:19.840 percent of people can make that kind of change. Ninety 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:20.280 eight percent. 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:24.319 One Trump's tariffs, markets crashing, AI's takeover, and the rise 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:27.240 of bitcoin. Now there's one hidden force behind all three 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:30.840 that could reshape the economy, and most investors aren't ready 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:32.760 for it. And if you get this one thing wrong, 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:35.199 you could be holding the wrong assets, working in the 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:36.120 wrong job, and. 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:37.320 Watching your wealth disappear. 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:39.080 But if you get it right, you have the chance 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:41.640 to be miles ahead of everyone. Today, I am sitting 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:45.440 down with Tom Baylou. Tom's built a billion dollar brand, 0:00:45.680 --> 0:00:49.120 interviewed over six hundred top performers. He's a leading voice 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:52.480 in the world through impact theory, his top point zero 0:00:52.560 --> 0:00:56.360 one percent podcast, billion view media company, and Tom teaches 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:59.959 people how to master mindset, strategy, and adaptability, which are 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:02.560 essential skills in the world that we're going into. So 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:05.240 in this video, we're going to discuss Trump's tariffs, we're 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:07.480 gonna talk about the markets crashing, we're gonna talk about 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:10.640 AI's takeover and what that means over the next couple 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:13.480 of years, and the rise of bitcoin. Of course, what 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:16.320 he thinks you're gonna need to know to survive and 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.600 thrive over the next three to five years. 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:20.400 So let's just jump right in with Tom. 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:23.880 So, what would you say some mind shift that you 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:27.120 could give to people that might be useful for them today. 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:29.480 The ultimate framework is really simple. 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:31.520 You at all times need to know. 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:35.680 This is the big one that people don't understand about themselves, 0:01:35.720 --> 0:01:37.319 which is that they trust their. 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:38.640 And they shouldn't. 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:40.960 If people just run that all day, every day, they 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:46.360 can have all the success that their emotional stability, their drive, 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:48.960 and their level of intellect will allow. The big thing 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.120 I would think people should look at right now if 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:52.960 you really want to understand part of the game they're playing, 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:54.920 whether this is going to work because of how much 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:57.480 of the debt has to be refinanced. You've got to 0:01:57.520 --> 0:02:01.240 get the we are in a cold war with very 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:03.920 high potential for being a kinetic war with China, they 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:05.600 can't control. 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:07.840 Your manufacturing, so that has to change. What do you 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:11.440 see AI agents doing to disrupt sort of the world 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.840 and at what speed less than twenty four months away 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:18.840 that you're seeing like this kind of blinding speed. 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:21.320 You need to be at the edge of it figuring 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:23.600 out how do I make this work. There's going to 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:27.440 be many billion dollar companies made by one, two or 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:31.760 three people. They get together, they deploy full AI orgs 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:34.680 all of a sudden, All of those employees that you 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:39.000 would have historically had they just go away? 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:41.600 All right, Tom, And one of your latest videos, you've 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:43.640 been talking a lot about tariffs and Trump and you 0:02:43.720 --> 0:02:48.160 called the tariff planet global financial earthquake. Obviously, we've seen 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:51.560 markets crashing, seems like it's heating up with the US 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:53.200 and China. 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:55.680 A lot of people are on edge about this. Now. 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:58.120 You've been interviewing a lot of people I know, macro 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.160 thinkers that I know like ral Paul ray Alio. 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:05.400 Talking about the economic chaos that's happening. 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:09.760 So what do you think investors should be paying attention 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:11.840 to or doing right. 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:15.240 Now that there's absolutely no way they know what's happening? 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:20.160 And boy do I warn people against being day traders, 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:23.800 so I would have people asking one question, what do 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:27.800 you do in times of uncertainty? At this point, it's 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:31.120 probably too late, to be honest, for them to make 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:33.600 any sort of flight to safety, but I certainly could 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.119 have seen somebody going, Huh, this is going to bring 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:38.480 a lot of uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty, so I'm going 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.560 to move into T bills or something along those lines 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.600 to avoid it. But honestly, from where I'm sitting, I'm 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:49.080 always taking the perspective that the odds of me beating 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:52.320 the market are effectively zero, and so I'm going to 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:55.480 play the old adage of time in the market versus 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:59.520 time being the market. Nothing about my thesis about where 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:03.800 certainly American companies go has changed, So I've already got 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:06.240 and I've watched your videos on Ray Dalio, and I 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:11.680 know his historical records. But the reason that I still 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:15.280 buy into that strategy is because I'm partly my age, 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.240 so I still have a long time in the market, 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:19.920 so I'm not super worried about, you know, a ten 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:24.200 year period where it gets a little flat. I am 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:28.400 way in a protective stance, so all of my high 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:30.040 risk risk on stuff is all going to be in 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:33.039 the companies I'm building. So I would advise people in 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.359 a time of massive economic uncertainty unless you really feel 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:40.039 like you have some insider information insider trading, but like 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:45.039 you really understand that market just obscenely, well, yeah, I 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:49.040 would be going somewhere that is going to ride the turbulence. Well, 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:51.840 so for me, it's my thesis on bitcoin has remained 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:54.960 the same, So I didn't touch anything there. My thesis 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:58.440 on the market over the long run that I'm invested 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:00.760 for is the same. So I've just left everything there, 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:05.800 and I'm already so defensive and have so much in 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.159 government debt that I left that there. But for me, 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:10.679 most of that stuff is really short term because I'm 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:14.360 building my own company. So my big concern is always 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:18.359 having your capital tied up somewhere. So right now, I 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:20.040 would tell people to make sure that you can move 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:22.880 at a moment's notice, that you've got enough capital that 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:26.000 you can deploy that if something really gnarly happens, like 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:29.720 if we go into a proper global recession, you want 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:31.320 to have enough access to capital that you don't have 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:32.960 to worry about your lifestyle for years and years and 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:35.760 years and you want to be able to if you 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:39.039 see like a real opportunity, like, for instance, if AI 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:42.599 and robotics just absolutely got hammered, I'd want to be 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:45.280 able to get into those in a super broad way, 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:47.719 very diversified across the sector, because I have no idea 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:50.960 who's going to win. But my thesis about the future 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:52.960 is so aggressively clear. 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.160 I could be wrong, obviously. 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.719 But it's so clear to me what the next call 0:05:57.760 --> 0:05:59.960 it five to seven years is going to look like 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:04.040 that if I saw that segment depressed, then I'd be 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:06.279 pretty eager to get in at a discount. 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:09.880 I love AI and bitcoin, and we are going to 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:12.039 dive into those two topics for sure, because we're gonna 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:13.960 have a big conversation around that and what the next 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:16.120 five to seven years looks like for sure. But what 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:20.760 I heard you saying was number one for your current position, 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:25.720 So you have a famously sold quest nutrition for whatever 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:28.680 billion dollar deal that was, and so you're in more 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:32.760 of a defensive state for sure. However, I would add 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:34.800 on too that that regardless of what state you're in, 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.120 even if you're still trying to make your money, I 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:39.200 would listen to what you said, which is you're focused 0:06:39.240 --> 0:06:41.360 on your businesses because that's where you make your money, 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:43.320 and then you're trying to defend and keep the capital 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:45.200 that you have. And so I think people that are 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:46.840 thinking about the short term, trying to trade that to 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:49.240 make more money, you're probably gonna end up on the 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:50.360 wrong side of the timing. 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:51.880 Yeah, And I mean, look, you know this better than 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:53.760 I do, but I would be so curious. I've heard 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.120 a data point that rings so true to me, which 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:59.719 is that something and this is for sure true in 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.960 the crypto world, five percent of the walllet's make ninety 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:06.000 five percent of the games. So it's like there are 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:09.560 people that they're in those WhatsApp and signal groups. They're 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.960 betting on culture. They know how much they can influence 0:07:13.120 --> 0:07:16.800 said culture, and they win and basically everybody else loses. 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:20.600 I'm just not that that game, to me is so crazy. 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:24.120 So I get I'm a very particular flavor of person 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:27.640 who talks about the market, but all the betting, all 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:30.720 the gambling, that stuff, to me is like a major turnoff. 0:07:30.920 --> 0:07:31.480 Yeah. 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:34.440 Yeah, And unfortunately that's what the crypto space has turned into. 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.320 I mean, meme stocks are jokes, right, and so it's 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:40.640 turned into a cryptocus you know at this point literally yes, 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:45.840 literally jokes aggressively agree with that. Yeah, sad story. Somebody 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:47.600 who was in one of my training programs. I'd consider 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:48.080 him a friend. 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:48.280 Now. 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.239 He had sort of lost a lot in the crypto space, 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:53.200 decided he was going to go all in bitcoin only 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:56.000 from here on out, built up a pretty big personal brand, 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:58.640 made a lot of money, did pretty good, had about 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:01.679 six million dollars in bitcoin. He's young, in his late twenties. 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.120 The crypto thing kind of called again. He started pumping. 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:10.600 He started a crypto trading group. Uh huh. He made 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.360 a lot of money, twelve thousand dollars memberships for he 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:14.960 sold like two nre people made a couple of million 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:17.720 bucks selling memberships, but they all lost a lot of money. 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:20.560 So then he started a meme trading group. Oh god. 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:22.400 And it was about three weeks ago. 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:24.760 He messaged me, sent me a text message and he said, Hey, Mark, 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:28.120 can we talk? I messed up really bad and I 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.160 need to talk because I have this famous story of 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:31.640 kind of losing everything in two thousand and eight. 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:32.600 And uh. 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:35.200 I got on the phone with him and he's like, man, 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:37.440 I chased the memes all the way to the bottom 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:41.240 and I lost all my money six millions US and 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.360 not only that, but everybody that was paying him to 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:45.360 be in that meat trading group as well. 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:47.760 So anyway, I. 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:49.640 Want to dive deeper into tariff. So I do want 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:51.120 to get into bitcoin AI. We're gonna have a lot 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:54.040 of fun with that. But if we talk about tariffs, 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:55.800 like I said, you've been all over it. It's the talk 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:57.560 of the talk of the town, if you will, all 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:00.760 over the news. But you talked about like Trump's tariff strategy. 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:03.400 Now a lot of people actually let me start with this. 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:07.080 You said that, I think on your intro you said 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:10.199 that nobody has any idea what's going on or what's 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:10.760 going to happen. 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:13.120 Yeah, I don't think anybody can accurately predict how this 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:13.720 is going to play out. 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:15.360 People f thess and that's good. 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:20.160 So certainly, in a complex system, the lava unintended consequences 0:09:20.200 --> 0:09:22.520 is going to kick in. And so you start trying 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:24.760 to play with a couple pieces of a complex system, 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:28.920 and we have multiple systems together, certainly the unintended consequences 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:31.560 will win. But the narrative seems to be with mainstream 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:34.320 media that Trump and his team are a bunch of 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:36.200 buffoons and have no idea what they're doing. 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:38.920 Yeah, yeah, I mean listen, at the end of this 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:41.560 half the world's going to look like morons and the 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:44.480 other half is going through have been right to some degree, 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:47.920 but I don't think anybody right now should have the 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:52.800 degree of confidence that I see people putting forward. Trump 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.120 really is the right way to think of him is 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:58.920 he is the CEO of America and he's he's going 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:02.960 for Mount Rushmore, whether it's going to work or not. 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:07.160 I legitimately have no idea. I can articulate a very kind, 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:10.120 generous read on what he's doing, and I pay a 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:12.640 lot more attention to Scott Bessen and Lutnik than I 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:16.199 do to Trump. Trump is a chaos agent. Maybe the 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:18.840 chaos is exactly what the system needs right now. But 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:21.400 if you really want to understand again whether they're right 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:25.880 or not, they have a very easy to follow string 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:28.880 of logic, and it just becomes a question to what 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:32.400 you were saying, cool your first sort of consequences, Yeah, 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:34.520 there's a chance that those will play out just like 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:37.680 you're saying. The bad news is this is an insanely 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:42.000 complicated system where egos of other nations are getting involved. 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:44.560 This is like a huge gamble you're playing in with 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:47.839 the setup of Thucidides trap, so it's UV China. You're 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:50.679 fighting for the whole world at a time where Breton 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:52.560 Woods is dead, so you've got to come up with 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:56.640 a whole new monetary system. And Trump is like pulled 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:58.480 the pin out of the grenade and tossed it and 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.120 has gone, Okay, this is going to break the mold, 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:03.680 and I've got to get everybody out of that mold 0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:06.240 so that I can move them into something new. And 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:09.160 I'm perfectly willing to believe that they have a vision 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:12.520 for what that's something new is they've articulated it. There's 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.800 probably the part they're saying, and then there's my mind 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.040 read about the part they're not saying, which we'll see 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:20.120 if I end up being right about it. And for 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:22.920 people that don't know me, I am not emotionally invested 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:25.360 in being right. I am only interested the only way 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:27.000 to make sense of all the words coming out of 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:30.240 my mouth are I am trying to accurately map the 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:34.080 way the world works and so where it's going. Yeah, well, 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:36.320 so if you know how the world works, then you 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:37.720 have a sense where it's going. If you do not 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.679 understand how the world actually works, you're never going to 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:42.760 be able to figure out where this is going. I 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.200 try to follow everything from a cause and effects standpoint, 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:49.520 so I will routinely have people interface with me as 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.520 if I'm saying Trump is right, he has to do this, 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:54.840 this is wonderful, it's going to work. I'm not at 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:57.200 all saying that. I'm saying this is the logic of 0:11:57.240 --> 0:11:59.800 what they're laying out. This might be a hidden layer, 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:03.679 and if these things are accurate, it should play out 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:06.040 like this. And now, like everybody, I'm just gonna watch 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:09.720 and see if my mental map is accurate. I've already 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:13.160 explained what I'm actually doing with my money, so people 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.280 don't need to guess about what bags I'm pumping or 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:17.680 anything like that. I'm just I'm trying to mentally map 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:19.960 the world and see if I end up being accurate 0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:21.640 not so I can feel good about being right, so 0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:24.000 I can say, cool, this map of the world of 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:26.640 this moment had a high degree of predictive validity. 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:27.880 That's it. That's all I'm going for. 0:12:28.920 --> 0:12:34.839 So yeah, I think that this system is so complicated. 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:36.960 They're running what I call the shoot me in the 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:40.680 ear bro strategy, where it's like laying that Oh my god. 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:44.640 So when Trump first got shot in the ear, somebody 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:48.360 who I know and respect said he probably just faked 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:50.520 it and he was just doing it for attention, and 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:53.640 I was like, hold on, you actually think that. He 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.600 said to somebody, go ahead, shoot this off my head. 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.120 Sure, graize my ear. 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:04.320 That's so dangerous, there's no way. Yeah, this feels like that. 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:08.400 It's so high risk what he's doing. If he pulls 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:13.440 it off and this ends well, and we completely reorganize 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:16.920 the world order in America's favor, and we now get 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.079 to take advantage of being the world's either first or 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:22.520 second largest economy, depending on who you speak to, and 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.880 we get all that benefit resounding to the US. We 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.559 get out of all of the problems that we have 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.040 with China controlling all of our manufacturing. 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:32.240 That is crazy. 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.400 We are in a cold war with very high potential 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:39.680 for being a kinetic war with China. They can't control 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:43.320 your manufacturing, so that has to change. But the way 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:47.400 that he's going about it with the just hyper aggressive, 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:49.720 ultra fast. 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:50.280 Is shoot me in the ear. 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:52.640 And so if nick him and he just bleeds a 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:55.400 little and is like the world's trying to kill me, 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:59.280 and now everybody rallies around him. Amazing, but an inch 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.439 in either Russian and he's dead. 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:01.920 Yeah. 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:06.680 So this is when I really go prognostication mode. I'm like, 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:09.320 it starts working, but not in time for the midterms. 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:12.800 He loses the midterms, it flips, they no longer control 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:16.040 the House, he becomes lame duck, and Republicans. 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:16.439 Are out in four years. 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:20.200 That's like if I were gonna, say fifty one forty nine, 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:22.320 Because again, I really do feel like I'm guessing it's 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.160 just such a complicated system that would. 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:26.840 Be I would give the edge to that. 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.000 It just won't work in time, even if ultimately it 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.800 would have one thing that I've seen. So the last 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:34.280 time we had this big of a drawdown in the 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:37.040 markets was in twenty twenty two October twenty twenty two, 0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:39.160 when Biden was president, and nobody was saying it was 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:42.360 all Biden's fault. Granted he didn't go throw a grenade 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:45.520 to your point or the illustration that he gave. But 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:47.560 today this morning in the gym, I saw in the news, right, 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:49.680 it's just like Trump Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, and it's 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:50.400 all his fault. 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:52.080 Yeah, and a lot of it is heated. 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:54.720 Did move by executive order, so a lot of it 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:56.600 is sort of on him. But if they're going to 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.560 assign this whole crash to him, if he pulls it off, 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:01.080 they're gonna forgive him all the credit for it, and 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:01.560 they won't. 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:03.080 So brace that and they won't. 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:05.560 But I want to go back you said that the 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.080 risk is so high. I want to put a pin 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:09.800 in that and come back to that. But just going 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:14.240 back to we do have no idea of the future. 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.800 Tomorrow is not guaranteed for any of us. Certainly, it's 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:19.800 a complex system. But I want to talk about the 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:24.840 competency of the people. So I mean, I saw I've 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:27.480 seen many interviews of Howard Lutnik. I don't know if 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:29.440 you saw the one of them on the all in Pod. Yeah, 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:35.480 I mean, very smart, very capable, the way that he's 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.960 looking at things, like he said, like you hear about 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:42.160 the debt of the country thirty six trillion, you're about 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:44.360 the deficit of the country. You hear about the income 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:47.120 of the expense of the country. But as a business owner, 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.160 there's a number that's glaring, that's missing out of that, 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:54.800 what about the balance sheet and like just hearing like 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:56.960 an approach like that in a business mind number one. 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:58.960 But then you have Bescent and you said you listened 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:00.840 to him quite a bit a pretty good interview on 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:01.680 Tucker recently. 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:05.560 And I see a lot. 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:07.920 Of people on Twitter and YouTube, people that I respect, 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.000 people that I know, and people that I align with 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.400 their worldview, and they're just telling, Oh, this guy's making 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.160 all these mistakes. He didn't understand this. He didn't understand that. 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.320 It's like, yeah, you're not smarter than Scott Piscent. So 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:20.880 Scott Pisent's pedigree, right, he worked for the goat the 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:23.360 greatest of all time, Druck and Miller, the second greatest 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:25.280 of all time Soros. 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:29.080 But specifically what he did. 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.600 Working for those guys, right, specifically, what they did was 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:35.960 take down countries and manipulate currencies. 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:37.200 That's what they did, dude. 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:39.760 Take down the Bank of England. The Bank of England, 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:44.360 not not a rando like small country that's hyperinflating their currency. 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:47.880 The Bank of England. It's pretty crazy, the Bank of England. 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:51.800 So basically he was hired to do the opposite of that. 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:58.080 So understanding what makes the bank of England vulnerable? What 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:00.440 makes other they've taken down many other country since the 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:03.360 Bank of England, what makes those countries vulnerable being over 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:07.359 leveraged to being off sides? And now he's been hired, 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.280 as he said on Tucker, like to sell dollars around 0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:12.959 the world. Right, So he understand that part. So what 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:15.159 could we do to do the opposite of that? But 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.560 more specifically, I. 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:18.720 Mean, you took down bank in England. 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:21.359 But China is a pretty big thing game, if we 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:25.600 would call it that, right, So understanding what makes the 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:28.359 US dangerous and how can we derist the US? But 0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:32.600 then specifically, what are China's leverage points? And and you know, 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:34.240 he said on Tucker a couple of times that he 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.240 sees China inter recession depression. Maybe we can box them in. 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:42.919 We have no idea, But to say that he doesn't 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:46.080 know what he's doing would be I think a mistake. 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:48.280 Aggressively aggressive. 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:50.840 Yeah, I mean, listen, I think that if you were 0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:52.920 going to have anybody run the playbook that they're running, 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:56.760 you've got some of the greatest capital allocators on planet 0:17:56.840 --> 0:18:00.560 Earth who have made unimaginable amounts of money. By saying 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:04.159 I understand how global economics works, and I'm going to 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:10.359 bet hugely that I'm accurate. And they've won and so 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:12.800 over and over and over. So many of these guys 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:14.399 that I look at that are just like the world's 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:17.800 greatest capital allocators, I'm like, huh, They're all like this 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:18.359 could work. 0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:20.439 Listen, take Ray Dalio. 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:22.160 I think you and I may see him a little 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:28.479 bit differently, but nonetheless, Ray has made just unimaginable amounts 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:32.520 of money doing this game. Has this crazy historical perspective, 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:37.000 and he's very much in my camp, which is, you 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.400 have to do something because of what's going on with China, 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:41.520 you have to do something because of the debt, Like 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:45.879 these things cannot stand. So given that, given that, in 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:48.119 action is not an option, right, and that's what I 0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:50.359 want to ask, then it's like, what do you do now? Again, 0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:52.760 if you listen to Trump, it's like, that's way too crazy. 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:54.320 I don't want to do that. And maybe there is 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:56.159 some of that. Maybe he's doing way too much Art 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:57.840