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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the square Sharper, It makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Shad Noman. I enjoy as

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Speaker 1: always by my bff, my companion, My Cambadre, my co host,

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Speaker 1: Professional Better Simon hunt Ella, Simon Shad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing?

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Speaker 3: I'm great, I'm freaking fantastic.

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Speaker 1: I feel like it's been a weirdly tell me if

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Speaker 1: you agree. It feels like a weirdly quiet.

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl week.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is the line has

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Speaker 1: stayed the same. There hasn't been a lot of you know,

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Speaker 1: super Bowl opening night quote controversy. It's been four and

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Speaker 1: a half, it's forty five and a half. Injuries haven't

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Speaker 1: been an issue. I just feel like, I actually feel

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Speaker 1: like in the last forty eight hours, NFL news has

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Speaker 1: been subsumed by NBA trade deadlineers. Just feels like a

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Speaker 1: very sort of quiet super Bowl week right now.

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Speaker 4: I guess I'm just in a bubble that I would.

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Speaker 4: I know nothing about NBA trade news at all. NFL wise,

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Speaker 4: I guess you're right. Maybe there's not a pop because

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Speaker 4: it's not We're coming off a high of my homes, right,

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Speaker 4: the run, this run of my homes, I mean going

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Speaker 4: for the three beat lash.

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Speaker 3: That's right, that's right.

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Speaker 4: It's just been on this incredible run. It's it's hard

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Speaker 4: to get fired up. I won't lie for Sam Darnold Drake.

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Speaker 2: It just is. If this was Josh.

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Speaker 4: Allen finally made it or Lamar finally made it, you know,

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Speaker 4: I would probably.

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Speaker 2: Have a little bit more juice.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, maybe maybe that's what's lacking I think for

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Speaker 4: the general public. But yeah, my world, it's never ending chat.

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Speaker 4: Everyone's got an opinion, and I would say it's hit

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Speaker 4: probably sixty five percent sixty ish percent all pros I've

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Speaker 4: talked or confident on the Patriot side.

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Speaker 2: So really, yeah, they're feeling pretty good. Chad. So I

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Speaker 2: really thought it was gonna.

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Speaker 4: Be super super Seahawks heavy, but it seems like it's

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Speaker 4: it's definitely the pros. They're they're taking positions on this

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Speaker 4: Patriots team. But I say all the time, it's in

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Speaker 4: a one game coin flip type of scenario.

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Speaker 2: The super Bowl, so random. I'm not gonna let it

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Speaker 2: worry me too much.

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Speaker 4: If this was Week five, I would tell you right

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Speaker 4: now we might be in some trouble chat, but it's not.

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Speaker 4: It's a super Bowl week. I'm dug in love. The

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Speaker 4: Seahawks still have just leaned into it totally. And yeah,

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Speaker 4: it's it's just fun because so many opinions are changing

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Speaker 4: every day where I mean, all last week was all

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Speaker 4: Drake May's banged up down. This week Seahawks, their star

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Speaker 4: rookie safety rolled an ankle last play of the game.

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Speaker 4: And now everyone's freaking about the Seahawks. So some some

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Speaker 4: injury worry. But yeah, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 4: it's I think you're right. It's been a pretty mellow week, right. No, no, no,

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Speaker 4: not too much drama. No real madness.

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Speaker 2: Uh. From the media side of things, someone.

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Speaker 1: We used to start dating Taylor Swift stat to start

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Speaker 1: getting some.

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Speaker 3: Storylines going on here.

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Speaker 1: Since this is our Thursday pre Super Bowl episode, it's

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Speaker 1: all it's going to be mostly props. We have a

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Speaker 1: very special guest we're going to get to in a minute.

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Speaker 1: We are going to have our brass Balls better of

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Speaker 1: the week. We are going to have the final Chad's

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Speaker 1: Choice of the season.

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Speaker 3: I want to do that in one second.

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Speaker 1: But you said something to me very interesting the other

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Speaker 1: day that I think is dremade and relevant to the

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Speaker 1: show we're doing today. Regardless of the sides, so much

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Speaker 1: more of the action is on the props, And I

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Speaker 1: feel like this year more than ever, we started to

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Speaker 1: hear about it last year where Saquon Barkley became the

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Speaker 1: action that every book needed, right, it was Saquon Barkley touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: Sakuon Barkley rushing yards, whatever it was. Every book needed

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Speaker 1: him not to do anything in that game. This year

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Speaker 1: we're hearing the same thing again. It's all about the props.

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Speaker 1: What else are you hearing from professionals about Are they

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Speaker 1: leading more into the props and the sides? Are you

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Speaker 1: getting that sort of feeling as well?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, props will always be Again, it's it depends on

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Speaker 4: how old the professional is. Like if I know plenty

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Speaker 4: of professionals below the age of thirty, they don't even

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Speaker 4: do sides or totals.

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Speaker 2: They only do props. So for them, this is there.

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Speaker 4: The super Bowl is the holy Grail because you can

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Speaker 4: get so much money down on these props at all

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Speaker 4: different books we're doing. The regular season, you are lucky

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Speaker 4: to get above a one K better and a prop.

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Speaker 4: Ye mean, the books they're just so keen to it.

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Speaker 4: They know these pros can get insane value on these numbers.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, the prop markets heated up. I mean we

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Speaker 4: talk a little bit about, you know, these prediction markets.

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Speaker 4: That's a whole other world that's really heated up in

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Speaker 4: the prop market because I mean you can make prop

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Speaker 4: bets on just about every little thing on these on

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Speaker 4: these sites.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, it's it's really opened things up.

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Speaker 4: I remember my first time in Vegas for the Super

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Speaker 4: Bowl seeing a sheet of two hundred props was mind blowing,

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Speaker 4: Like I'll just never forget. I was like, this is overwhelming,

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Speaker 4: this is gonna take me all two weeks to get

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Speaker 4: through it. Now it's like thousands, I mean thousands of

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Speaker 4: different props, anything you can think of. I mean, it's

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Speaker 4: it really is a well timed So yeah, it's I

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Speaker 4: would say, you're you're right with your assessment. The guys

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Speaker 4: are really taking a position on props. But yeah, the

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Speaker 4: old school guys and all I got, most guys that

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Speaker 4: I talked to, they're still harping about totals, first half totals,

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Speaker 4: you know, first first half sides, full game side full

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Speaker 4: game totals, and that's really that's that's what these guys

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Speaker 4: love the bet, right, They're gonna have their models and

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Speaker 4: their opinions on the number and the totals.

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Speaker 2: So it's still heavy to that.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I would definitely say the New Age, the

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Speaker 4: next generation from twenty one up to thirty nine forty

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Speaker 4: all props, all the pros I talk to.

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Speaker 2: It's just I'm the same way. I like Ben's stuper props.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you want me to have a fat lineman

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Speaker 2: catch a touchdown, I'm betting it. You want me to

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Speaker 2: have the over two and a.

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Speaker 4: Half different passing pass attempts in the game, I'm betting

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Speaker 4: I want to Ben on Cooper Cup throwing a pass.

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Speaker 2: So I'm I'm totally on board, right.

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Speaker 4: I told old heads these type of bets, They're like,

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Speaker 4: you're a sucker, You're throwing your money away. They just

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Speaker 4: they're from a different world. So yeah, it's definitely an

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Speaker 4: age split on props.

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Speaker 3: So it's funny. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, one of the guys I'm talking to for

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Speaker 1: the book that I'm writing, he has focused to his

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Speaker 1: entire career on props and life.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard to get money.

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Speaker 3: It's hard to get money down.

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Speaker 1: It's uh, you know, it's been a fascinating thing to

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Speaker 1: write about for the book. And we'll obviously talk more

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Speaker 1: about the book, you know, when it's about to come

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Speaker 1: out many many many many months from now. But and

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Speaker 1: I write all about like how hard it is to

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Speaker 1: get money down, how hard it is to scale, you know,

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Speaker 1: and how hard it's just grind. It's a massive, massive grind,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of guys who are professionals, they really

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Speaker 1: do sort of they scale out of it because it

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Speaker 1: does become so difficult and it's hard to build a

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Speaker 1: network of getting money down with other people and things

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Speaker 1: like that. But we were texting the today he's in

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Speaker 1: Vegas now, and I.

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Speaker 3: Said to him, I really like the Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: He said that he was betting one of the props

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Speaker 1: he bet, He goes it's stupid, but one of the props.

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Speaker 3: I bet Seattle.

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Speaker 1: Minus thirty one at plus thirty one hundred or something

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Speaker 1: like that, which made me feel better because I have

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Speaker 1: been layering Seattle alts in a variety of ways, which

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Speaker 1: I want to talk to you and.

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Speaker 3: Our guest about.

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Speaker 1: It also made me feel better because before we get

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Speaker 1: to our guest, and we're going to be talking so

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Speaker 1: much about props. I do want to give out our

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Speaker 1: final category bets of the season. Chad's Choice presented by

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Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet, is one of those Seattle alts Seattle

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Speaker 1: and minus six and a half plus one point fifteen

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Speaker 1: at hard Rock Bet.

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Speaker 3: That is number one. Number two.

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Speaker 1: Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by hard Rock Bet.

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Speaker 3: This one.

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Speaker 1: It's so gross and so yucky. I can't believe we're

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Speaker 1: offering it.

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Speaker 3: Simon.

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Speaker 2: You know what it takes.

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Speaker 1: It takes brass balls. New England Patriots first drive punt

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Speaker 1: minus one third teen.

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Speaker 3: Gross, just gross's gross?

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Speaker 2: Are these new graphics? Man, Metroll?

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Speaker 4: I love them, man, I love the new graphics for

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Speaker 4: the Super Bowl stepping it up?

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Speaker 1: All right, don't forget. You can get the shows at

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Speaker 1: Sharper Scare on YouTube. Go subscribe and like this video

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Speaker 1: while you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper

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Speaker 1: Square on Applepods, Spotify, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: All right, props are popular. We've been talking about it.

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Speaker 1: We're doing our prop episode today with one of our

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Speaker 1: favorite people from the Action Network, man who dives deep

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Speaker 1: into the props, A man who has given out long

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Speaker 1: shot future winners to both you and I long shot

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Speaker 1: prop winners. One of the most creative thinkers in the business.

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Speaker 1: I am talking about our former colleague Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 3: Welcome Brandon.

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Speaker 5: Hey, guys, how's it going.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's great.

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Speaker 1: I'm feeling really good now that I know all the

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Speaker 1: wise guys are on the Patriots. You know, it's funny

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Speaker 1: after I've been betting my brains out on the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: and not just that, and we're going to get into

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Speaker 1: the props, but I feel like the entire sort of

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Speaker 1: narrative I've built for this game is based on Seahawks

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Speaker 1: controlling the ball, Patriots needing to come back in this game.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a broad opinion at this point?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's interesting.

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Speaker 6: As I heard you talk about the Seattle four and

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Speaker 6: a half, six and a half thirty one, that's where

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Speaker 6: I started, Like, coming out of Championship Sundal, I was like,

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Speaker 6: all right, well, season's over. We saw the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 6: we saw the Seahawks, rams we got our winner, we

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Speaker 6: found out who they're gonna beat. Let's find out how

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Speaker 6: much they're gonna win by And for like ten days

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Speaker 6: of this process, that's where it was, and then you

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Speaker 6: start listening to some of the other contents, some of

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Speaker 6: it trying to, you know, think well what am I missing?

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Speaker 5: What's the opposite of my view? I started being like, well,

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Speaker 5: what about this angle? What about play action? What about

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Speaker 5: the Patriots? This thing?

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Speaker 6: And you start kind of coming back the other way,

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Speaker 6: and you're like, man, I don't know, four and a

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Speaker 6: half is kind of a lot. You know, the underdogs

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Speaker 6: are are covering all these numbers lately, and I thought

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Speaker 6: I was gonna pull all the way back. And then

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Speaker 6: I did my last prep these last couple of days,

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Speaker 6: and if I made my final picks, was like, yeah, yeah, no.

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Speaker 5: Seattle, We're on Seattle. Seattle is the spot to be.

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Speaker 5: This is what I thought.

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Speaker 6: And too, it's interesting with Super Bowl. You know, normally

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Speaker 6: we're preparing on a Sunday for like fourteen games or something.

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Speaker 6: You're finding angles all over the place, and son, you

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Speaker 6: got one game and two weeks of shows and content

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Speaker 6: to fill for one game.

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Speaker 5: And it's say, okay, so what do you do? Do

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Speaker 5: You choose?

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Speaker 6: This is the game and this is the script, and

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Speaker 6: this is exactly what I think I'm gonna bet that

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Speaker 6: twelve different ways and here's my menu. Or do you say, okay,

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Speaker 6: choose your own adventure. If Seattle's up early, here's the

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Speaker 6: bet for that. If I'm wrong and the Patriots returning

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Speaker 6: opening kick for a touchdown, what's the bet for that?

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Speaker 5: How do I bet they?

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Speaker 2: Like?

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Speaker 6: Do you cover your bases and kind of give yourself

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Speaker 6: four or five scripts for the Super Bowl? Or do

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Speaker 6: you just say this is the one that I most

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Speaker 6: agree with and go all in. And you know, I

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Speaker 6: think you can do either one of those if you're

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Speaker 6: doing it right.

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Speaker 1: Oh shit, Brandon, don't fucking hedge, don't be a coward

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Speaker 1: over here, my little fun. We're going all in, brother.

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Speaker 1: We are all in on whatever the Seahawks are gonna

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Speaker 1: do in this game.

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Speaker 3: It's Seahawks or bust for us.

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Speaker 5: I believe Chad.

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Speaker 2: Chad no longer has a lot to sit on the

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Speaker 2: fence here.

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Speaker 4: I've I've literally beat him down to a man that

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Speaker 4: he makes I'm making pick aside, and it's it's the.

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Speaker 2: Way it should be. It's tough.

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Speaker 4: We all hate doing it, but yeah, I'm I'm totally

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Speaker 4: in line with him. Where It's like I was waivering

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Speaker 4: a little bit about the Patriots right. You hear so

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Speaker 4: much noise and it's like, oh my god, am I

259
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Speaker 4: missing something near? But I'm back all unless yaks as well.

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Speaker 4: So uh not all the professionals chat are on the Patriots, right.

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Speaker 4: There are still some of us on the chalky side

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Speaker 4: with the Joe public. But yeah, it's I was definitely

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Speaker 4: shocked to hear how many people have taken position on

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Speaker 4: the Patriots, because I did think it was gonna be

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Speaker 4: the world versus their sports books.

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Speaker 2: But the all things are, all things have even down

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Speaker 2: in the world. Chat. Don't worry. The pros are on

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Speaker 2: one side, the public's on the other.

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Speaker 3: We are the public in this game. I don't I

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Speaker 3: don't mind. I don't mind being shocky.

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Speaker 1: All right, Brandon, let's kick off with the unit you

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Speaker 1: feel most confident in right now, which is the Seahawks defense.

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Speaker 1: You've just explained you've come down on the side of

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks. It is going to be because of the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks defense. Why are you so confident in this Seahawks

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Speaker 1: defense and how it matches up with what the Patriots

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Speaker 1: can do from a betting point of view.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So it's it's Seahawks defense, and it's also Patriots

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Speaker 6: offense being actually the thing I maybe feel least confident

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Speaker 6: with this matchup as well, so to me all year along,

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Speaker 6: looking at all thirty two teams, the two units that

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Speaker 6: I most believed in, Rams offense Seahawks defense, we saw it.

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Speaker 6: We saw that match, We saw playoff three times. We

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Speaker 6: saw these fireworks showdowns, and we saw them like number

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Speaker 6: one DVA offense, Rams, number one DVUA defense Seahawks. Since

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Speaker 6: Week thirteen, the Seahwks gave up sixty four points to

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Speaker 6: the Rams. They gave up forty four points to everybody

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Speaker 6: else on the schedule in that stretch, forty four points

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Speaker 6: on sixty two drives defensively, two touchdowns, seven points a

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Speaker 6: game to any other than the Rams, and that includes

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Speaker 6: two forty nine Ers games that we thought the forty

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Speaker 6: nine ers were this buzzsaw offense until they weren't anymore.

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Speaker 6: Well you know, Purdy and blah blah blah, just no,

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Speaker 6: they were crushing everybody, and then they weren't because they

295
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Speaker 6: played the Seahawks. That's how good the defense has been

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Speaker 6: at everything. Patriots offense meanwhile, had all the good numbers

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Speaker 6: in the regular season because we all know about how

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Speaker 6: soft the schedule was. Now they're facing these tough defenses

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Speaker 6: and the numbers are ghastly. Since since nineteen seventy nine

300
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Speaker 6: is how long it's been since we have a team

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Speaker 6: averaging eighteen points a game that made the Super Bowl

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Speaker 6: nineteen seventy nine, they're they're averaging point negative point seven

303
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Speaker 6: to three EPA per drive the Patriots so far, that's

304
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Speaker 6: basically the Jets regular season number. The Patriots offense has

305
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Speaker 6: been the Jets offense. For comparison, it's the worst EPA

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Speaker 6: per driver sup World team since the two thousand Ravens

307
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Speaker 6: or the twenty fifteen Broncos. Guess what those are defense teams.

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Speaker 6: Those are all in defense teams that we knew that

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Speaker 6: at the time. That a just enough offense. That's not

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Speaker 6: what the Patriots are supposed to be. So if you're

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Speaker 6: buying Patriots right now, I think you have to be

312
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Speaker 6: buying that is this suddenly hyper elite defense. The offense

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Speaker 6: hasn't really shown up all season long. Drake May hasn't

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Speaker 6: really faced a lot of great competition, so suddenly now

315
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Speaker 6: his numbers are dropping. Thirty third percentile EPA in the playoffs.

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Speaker 6: Someone quarterbacks thirty third percentile against top ten defenses. On

317
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Speaker 6: the season, He's had nine games a season with a PFF.

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Speaker 5: Grade six year higher.

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Speaker 6: Here's who they're against, Miami, the Jets, Carolina, Buffalo, New Orleans, Tennessee,

320
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Speaker 6: and the Giants. Hooray for you, congrats on your above

321
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Speaker 6: average games. Only four those since week seven. He's at

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Speaker 6: eight games fifty percent tail or below PFF and EPA

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Speaker 6: six Since Week seven. Seattle's held quarterbacks to that mark

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Speaker 6: fourteen out of nineteen games. So this, to me is

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Speaker 6: a real mismatch and Seattle, we know how good they're

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Speaker 6: run defense is. Patriots are not gonna be able to

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Speaker 6: run the ball in this game. They're not haven't been

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Speaker 6: a good run team anyways. Patriots really rely on explosive

329
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Speaker 6: plays number one all season, but Seattle is second against explosives.

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Speaker 6: Drake May's air yard throws have dropped from early in

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Speaker 6: the season until late in the year. Seattle's number one

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Speaker 6: against Whaty's zero one? So that's Stefan Dicks.

333
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Speaker 5: It's okay.

334
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Speaker 6: You can't run the ball, you can't throw a lot

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Speaker 6: to digs, you can't go deep to booty.

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Speaker 3: What's left?

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Speaker 5: Then we just took the whole offense away. If that's

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Speaker 5: what's happening.

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Speaker 6: And we're talking about the defensive line, we've seen Will Campbell,

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Speaker 6: We've seen those rookies on the left side really struggle

341
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Speaker 6: as the season's gone on. We know Seattle's pressure rate.

342
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Speaker 6: So to me coming out swinging here, Patriots team total

343
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Speaker 6: under twenty and a half, that's the first. But I'm

344
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Speaker 6: going to give out here Patriots have only gone under

345
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Speaker 6: that four times all season, but two of them in

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Speaker 6: the playoffs. Already, Seattle is held non Rams opponents under

347
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Speaker 6: twenty and a half in thirteen of sixteen games this season.

348
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Speaker 6: So throw out the number one Rams offense and this

349
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Speaker 6: is hitting thirteen of sixteen times fifteen points a game.

350
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Speaker 6: And two of those three overs came in garbage time,

351
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Speaker 6: one in the final minute. I'll give you a trivia.

352
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Speaker 6: Who's the team that actually went over twenty and a half?

353
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Speaker 6: That's not the Rams? Do either of you know from

354
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,200
Speaker 6: the season who beat the Seahawks twenty one points.

355
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Speaker 3: Or better, well, beat the Seahawks.

356
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Speaker 1: Or to hoop it up twenty one or more over

357
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Speaker 1: this line Arizona Cardinals.

358
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Speaker 5: Arizona I believe was at twenty.

359
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Speaker 6: Okay, really in the season it's a quarterback that got

360
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Speaker 6: hurt and was much worse.

361
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Speaker 5: Late in the season.

362
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Speaker 2: Baker.

363
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Speaker 6: Baker's correct. The Buccaneers dropped I think thirty eight. I

364
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Speaker 6: believe on the on the Seahawks they won that game,

365
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Speaker 6: actually won that bet.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: By the way, these are also both bottom four in

368
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 7: pace neutral as well, So I think we're going to

369
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Speaker 7: get a slower game overall that can help an under

370
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Speaker 7: his While I'm not positive, we'll talk about the other

371
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Speaker 7: side of the ball.

372
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Speaker 5: I'm not positive.

373
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Speaker 6: About Seattle's offense New England's defense yet, I just don't

374
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Speaker 6: think England's going to score very much. So Patriots under

375
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 6: twenty and a half.

376
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 1: All right, Look, everything you just said makes me feel

377
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 1: so much better.

378
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 2: So, like.

379
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Speaker 3: Simon, why are people coming in on the Patriots? What

380
00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:22,440
Speaker 3: do we think here?

381
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:23,560
Speaker 1: Uh?

382
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Speaker 4: I mean, honestly, a lot of it is because of

383
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,439
Speaker 4: the trends of the dogs. Like I told you, if

384
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,520
Speaker 4: you just blindly bet the dogs down the Super Bowl,

385
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 4: the public is giving you a free point to two

386
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 4: points every time.

387
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Speaker 2: And you've seen the books have gotten so much sharper.

388
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,320
Speaker 4: I mean, I think back to that Giant what they

389
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 4: open thirteen plus thirteen against the Patriots, and it got

390
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 4: bet down to like eleven and a half by kickoff,

391
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 4: But those days feel long gone. They'll never have those

392
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 4: type of snaps again, because that's what we feel like

393
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 4: we have right here Like that, That's how I feel like,

394
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 4: that's how big this spread should be.

395
00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 2: Where the Patriots feel so lucky to be. They've earned it.

396
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 2: I've said it all along the way, they've earned it.

397
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 2: They've won those games.

398
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 4: But the path you cannot overlook the path they took

399
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 4: to get here and how favorable was for this team.

400
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,360
Speaker 4: And this is the ultimate test. The fact that they're

401
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,239
Speaker 4: looking at is you're fading. Sam Darnold is a four

402
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 4: and a half point favorite in the super Bowl. That's

403
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 4: basically the basis of most guys I talked to, where

404
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 4: it's like, isn't that a lot to give to a

405
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 4: guy who had one great game in the playoffs, which

406
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:26,639
Speaker 4: is what he did?

407
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 2: That rams game was incredible, it was great. I feel

408
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:30,359
Speaker 2: like he found something in that game.

409
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 4: That is why they were just like, you're betting a

410
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 4: lot on a guy who had one good game, where

411
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,399
Speaker 4: we have three other games where he you know, you

412
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 4: can say he didn't do much against the fortinite I

413
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 4: still think he made big time throws. But last year

414
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 4: against the Rams and then last year against the Lions

415
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,399
Speaker 4: and that biggest games, he did not show up and

416
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 4: he faltered and he played really poorly, and I think

417
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 4: a lot of guys are stiling that against him. So

418
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 4: it's a big number. Like we said, four and a

419
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 4: half is a big number where you're talking about a

420
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,399
Speaker 4: one game, sample, winner take all type of matchup. But

421
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 4: I've said to you chat, I still think it's it's

422
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 4: because of that, because of the dog success. I think

423
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 4: that's gone the other way. We're getting two free points

424
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 4: on the favorite now where it's shifted too much to

425
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 4: giving the dog too much respect here. So it's it

426
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 4: is like you said, it's it's interesting where you look

427
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 4: at all the numbers and it is everyone knows is

428
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 4: Patriots team's overrated.

429
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 2: And that's what's so funny. These Patriots fans get so

430
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: upset about it. Why would you.

431
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 4: Care, You're in the dance you made it. It's like,

432
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 4: it's it's very bizarre how they're reacting to it. Where

433
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,360
Speaker 4: it's like, you, guys know you had a sob schedule.

434
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 4: You know, the beat the teams you beat, Yes, you

435
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 4: won those games, and.

436
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 2: It was tons of respect.

437
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 4: But it's like, come on, I mean, were you really

438
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,160
Speaker 4: gonna act like the path of Herbert CJ and then

439
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 4: a backup quarterback was, you know, the hardest path of

440
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 4: every Super Bowl? No, but when you look at the

441
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 4: Seahawks their whole season, that was a tough path. They're

442
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 4: in the hardest division of football. So I just don't

443
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 4: get why they they don't. They're like, uh so upset

444
00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 4: everyone's picking the Seahawks.

445
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 2: Why would they not be?

446
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 4: Why would anyone in national media who basically always picks chalk,

447
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 4: why would they pick the Patriots. It's like, I just

448
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 4: at the surface level, it doesn't really make sense. But yeah,

449
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 4: I like you said, I'm Iaran Anderson say all that

450
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 4: stuff about all those numbers.

451
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 2: I'm just like you, Jet.

452
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 4: That made me feel so much better inside where it's

453
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 4: like I'm waving a little bit because it feels too easy.

454
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 4: I think you have the same feeling. But it's like, no,

455
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 4: stick to it. We're betting into a good number. I

456
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,640
Speaker 4: really am confident this Yalks team.

457
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508
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 1: do props, but I'm dying to ask both you right now?

509
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 3: How do I ladder this? I believe in the Seahawks.

510
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 1: I bet the Seahawks Simon, You and I talked about

511
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: this two weeks ago. Now, I bet the Seahawks at

512
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: minus three and a half the second the game opened.

513
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 1: I bet the Seahawks again at four and a half.

514
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: I have bet the Seahawks at minus twenty five and

515
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: a half. If I want to be on the Seahawks

516
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: at what intervals? Do you think I keep betting the

517
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: Seahawks as I ladder this up? Brandon, you are the

518
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: laddering master. If I'm going to be on the Seahawks,

519
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: what are my laddering intervals here? If I've got it

520
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 1: three and a half, four and a half, and twenty

521
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 1: five and a half? Am I doing six and a half?

522
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: Am I doing nine and a half? Am I doing

523
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half?

524
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: Like?

525
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: Is that what I should be doing?

526
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 5: Yes?

527
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 6: I was going to ask about that, so this year

528
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 6: I often have done five and a half and nine

529
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 6: and a half as ken of the starting escalator modes.

530
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 6: And then from there, you know, basically you're just looking at, okay,

531
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 6: what are key numbers, and then how can I just

532
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,120
Speaker 6: kind of keep ducking below the key numbers I get

533
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 6: to choose as I go up. You know that the

534
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 6: main number they're putting out, we're gonna get action both

535
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 6: sides to hone in on the number. But so to me,

536
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 6: I like five and a half. We've seen this year

537
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 6: and more of the last few years some sixes along

538
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 6: with the sevens, So I like to get under both

539
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 6: of those if I can. It's usually not a huge

540
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,120
Speaker 6: difference nine and a half to get out of the ten,

541
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 6: and then maybe I go like sixteen and a half

542
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 6: twenty three and a half, you know, just kind of

543
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,360
Speaker 6: like hitting a touchdown at a time on the way

544
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 6: up or something like that, and just kind of slowly

545
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 6: a little bit less each time.

546
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 5: I think, too, we're gonna get into the props.

547
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 6: But you can sort of correlate and say, okay, well,

548
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 6: if they're gonna win by twenty thirty points, if that

549
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 6: is the outcome, how'd they get there. Did JSN have

550
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 6: the huge game? Did Polani come in and get a

551
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 6: last touchdown? Because Walkers already out celebrating on the sidelines,

552
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 6: Like you can, can I get creative with Okay, if

553
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 6: this is the script, what are some other long numbers

554
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 6: I can play rather than just the spread? And you

555
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 6: can or you can build the same game partly and say, okay,

556
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 6: let's put a bunch of these together. Did Donald hit

557
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,360
Speaker 6: the yards and we got the JSN game and that's

558
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 6: why we got this big number as well?

559
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 3: All right? Sound you get any thoughts on that? You

560
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 3: think I'm being crazy? No?

561
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: You having fun? That's super Bowl.

562
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 4: I tell people at the time, the super Bowl supposed

563
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 4: to be fun. Spread out of your stuff, Like me,

564
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:32,959
Speaker 4: the Oka Mudron. I'm gonna put fifty percent of my

565
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 4: equity into the minus six and a half, so you'll

566
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 4: expect Like, to me, that's fun. The fact that I'm

567
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 4: not betting minus one fifteen, I'm getting plus one fifteen,

568
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 4: That that to me is my fun. Like that's how

569
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 4: sick I am. So yeah, it's I. I do these

570
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:49,719
Speaker 4: ladders too, Like I like doing all those bets. But

571
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 4: like everyone just needs to remember such a small percentage

572
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 4: of your bet, right, you're just that's your fun money.

573
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 4: But yeah, like you're serious if you're trying to take

574
00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 4: a position. Yeah for me, I I just leaned the

575
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 4: getting the juice number. But yeah, if you're trying to

576
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 4: put some crazy stuff together, chat you basically we talk

577
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 4: all the time. If you're someone out there that likes

578
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 4: the overs, do not bet the over like you can

579
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 4: parlay it, but throw in all the touchdown scores, like

580
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 4: throw in crazy parlays of different touchdown scores and get

581
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 4: real weird with it, right Mac Collins. Throw them in there,

582
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 4: like throw in the second tight end, throw in the

583
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 4: full back, do whatever. Because if you bet two bucks

584
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,360
Speaker 4: and it hits, and you hit some of these parlays,

585
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 4: sometimes you're getting back like a thousand bucks. It's it happens,

586
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's right. I always try to tell people

587
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: where it's like last year's Super Bowl, I think bry

588
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 4: Anderson talked about this every year. You should always bet

589
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 4: defensive touchdown either team, right, special teams if you can

590
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 4: get it. I know that the juice is different on them,

591
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 4: but that's another bet. Where if I'm doing with chat

592
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,640
Speaker 4: talking about like if I'm betting the Seahawks and having

593
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 4: fun with the laddering up. I'm gonna throw defensive where

594
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 4: special teams touchdown in there. Got to do it because

595
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 4: it's like Drake May, second year quarterback. That's gonna be

596
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,640
Speaker 4: part of our our vision, right, chat, If we're gonna

597
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 4: have a blow out here, we expect there. Maybe do

598
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 4: you have pick six or a kick return? So that's

599
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 4: like we keep saying the wildest warst fun ideas you

600
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 4: can have. Throw it in. They got a number for you,

601
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 4: do it. Just take it easy with the bankroll. Don't

602
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 4: be going crazy on these parlays. Right, If you're one

603
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 4: hundred dollars better on the Super Bowl, do one or

604
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,199
Speaker 4: two dollars parlays, right, and just do a ton of them.

605
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 4: It's just fun because all of a sudden you wake

606
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 4: up Monday morning, it's like, holy shit, I won a

607
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 4: thousand bucks and I won two bets. And that's that's

608
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 4: what we're looking for, right, these crazy long shots.

609
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: All right, Brandon Simon just mentioned the magic words defensive

610
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: special teams touchdown. How are we thinking about betting just

611
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 1: defensive props?

612
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, this to me is a set it and forget

613
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 6: it super Bowl bet, Like you can bring me on

614
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 6: next year, and I'm just gonna give it these exact

615
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 6: same bets out with different teams and names. Defensive score

616
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 6: in the Super Bowl. We have twenty two defensive touchdown

617
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 6: in the Super Bowl, at least one in nineteen out

618
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 6: of the fifty nine, so about one in three thirteen

619
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 6: defensive touchdowns the last twenty four. So that's over a

620
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 6: half touchdown defensively per game. And this matchup, it's been

621
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 6: defense all season, Seattle's defense all year, Patriots defense all playoffs,

622
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 6: and Seattle had the second most giveaways in the regular season.

623
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 6: So if you if our script goes wrong, we're all

624
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 6: feeling good about Seattle.

625
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 5: But if we're wrong, why does it go wrong?

626
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 6: Darnold turned it over like that's the reason, and it

627
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 6: probably was a pick six the other way, and you

628
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 6: get a four and a half point spread, one touchdown

629
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 6: that the weird oblong ball bounced the wrong way, seven

630
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 6: free points between two great teams. YEA, you're probably gonna

631
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 6: get a different sort of turnout there. So I will

632
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 6: say betting defense, betting special teams, make sure to'll watch

633
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 6: at the book because sometimes you get the defense touchdown,

634
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 6: sometimes you get the d slash st that's what do

635
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 6: you want? You want the special teams in this one.

636
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 6: These teams had eight special teams touchdowns this season. They're

637
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 6: thirteen special teams touchdowns in the Super Bowl. No punt

638
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 6: returns yet. Maybe we'll get one here. But you want

639
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 6: special teams as well.

640
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 5: You can just.

641
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 6: Bet keep it easy, either team defense or special teams

642
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 6: touchdown plus two sixty five keep it easy. That's twenty

643
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 6: seven percent. There are thirty five defense special team touchdowns

644
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 6: and the Super bowls. That's fifty nine percent implied. So

645
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 6: that's basically more than double the odds that we're getting there.

646
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 6: But I like to get more aggressive because almost always

647
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 6: the team that gets the defense touchdown is the winning team.

648
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 6: Makes sense, right, Like, that's the free points. You got

649
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 6: twenty two defense touchdowns, all but three are the winning team.

650
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 6: So you build two separate parlays, and I'm playing both

651
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 6: Seattle Defense special teams touchdown with the Seattle money line

652
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 6: plus eight thirty three, Patriots defense special team touchdown with

653
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 6: their money line plus twenty seven hundred. You have both together,

654
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 6: it's like plus six hundred implied. It's double the value

655
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 6: what we should be getting here. And then also, defenders

656
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 6: can win MVP. I've had ten defensive MVPs, more defense

657
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 6: than running back, more defense than receiver.

658
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 5: It's about one every seven in the Super Bowl.

659
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 6: Defensive MVP, you can get just at fifteen to one

660
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 6: every defender. I get half the guys on the field

661
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 6: at fifteen to one. What can't you like about that?

662
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 6: That's six percent implied. It's like two and a half

663
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 6: times what the history implies there. So I like defensive MVP.

664
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 6: And then this is my one two dollars bet that

665
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 6: Sam was talking about. If I'm doing all that, I

666
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 6: have to take some stabs at glory and come up

667
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 6: with who's the exact defender. I'm going to be wrong,

668
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 6: but one year, randomly, I'm gonna be right. So here's

669
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 6: my three guys. Marcus Jones for the Patriots one hundred

670
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 6: and fifty to one. He's the third cornerback. He had

671
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 6: four picks this year, two of them returned for touchdown

672
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 6: to punt returns for touchdown, so I get the bonus there.

673
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 5: I don't want the best player. I want splash plays.

674
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 6: Give me the upside with Marcus Jones, And of course

675
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 6: I want Seattle guys to Marcus Lawrence won fifty to one.

676
00:31:58,840 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 5: He had a sack each game.

677
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 6: Playoffs, he has three fource fumbles in two games up

678
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 6: against Will Campbell. We like that matchup a lot. And

679
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 6: then Ernest Jones two hundred to one. Three of the

680
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 6: four defensive Super Bowl MVPs of the century are linebackers.

681
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 6: He led the team in tackles by thirty this season,

682
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 6: led the team in interceptions. We think New England's going

683
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 6: to get a lot of pressure and a lot of

684
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 6: short passes, a lot of dump off stuff. Here is

685
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 6: your linebacker ready to just jump in the middle of

686
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 6: the lane. You get the desperate pass late, he's housing

687
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 6: it the other way. And wouldn't this be the team

688
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 6: if we're not sure about Darnold, if jas En doesn't

689
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 6: have a huge game, don't we want a Seattle defender

690
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 6: to be the MVP to represent who Seattle has been about.

691
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 6: So I like betting defense in the Super Bowl bye,

692
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 6: especially like this year.

693
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 3: I love this, I love this all.

694
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 1: I can't wait to bet every single one of these

695
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: because they also all align with what I'm looking for

696
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl right.

697
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 3: Now, which is Seattle to dominate.

698
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: So other than the Patriot defensive special teams, and money line.

699
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 1: Everything you're saying is just pure glory. We talked a

700
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 1: little bit about escalators, Brendon. I wanted your take on that,

701
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 1: because you are so good at doing the escalators outside

702
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: of the Seahawks.

703
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 3: Give me an idea, like.

704
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,719
Speaker 1: The most fun bet you can make in the Super Bowl?

705
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 6: As Yeah, so I think the most fun bet you

706
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 6: can make, Although a slight disclaimer, I call this the

707
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 6: most fun bet on Championship Sunday, and I bet it

708
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 6: and then it got hooked and missed by half a yard.

709
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 6: But we're going back to the well and having the

710
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 6: most fun a second time.

711
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 5: I think it's Rashid Shahid as a runner.

712
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 6: This is the dude they went on trade it for

713
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 6: the deadline and we're gonna run it back. Rashi Chihed

714
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 6: rushing yards over two and a half rushing yards.

715
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 5: It's the most fun because not.

716
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 6: Only are you you're betting two and a half yards,

717
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 6: you're waiting for one play we're getting. We get one

718
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 6: shot at this in all likelihood the entire Super Bowl.

719
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 6: We're waiting for the one gadget play. You know, we're

720
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 6: getting the trick play, the reverse that the weird sort

721
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 6: of play that you've been holding back the whole entire season.

722
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 6: Shahita is a rushing attempt in eight of eleven Seahawks games.

723
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 6: They're using him as a runner. They're using him kind

724
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 6: of like Percy Harvin. You might get like the backwards

725
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 6: pass screen that counts as a run.

726
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 5: So we want a rushing attempt. We got to start there.

727
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 6: And he's gone over two and a half yards five

728
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 6: to eleven games, so not quite the number that we'd

729
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 6: want there, but that also includes a two yard game.

730
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 5: And then last game was a zero.

731
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 6: I bet him over a zero and zero point five

732
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 6: yards and he had a run over to the side

733
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 6: and he had a yard. He just stepped out a

734
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 6: bounce to avoid the hit like a pansy. Get the

735
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 6: yard him the bet for me. So over two and

736
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 6: a half yard, Rashi Hiheed, you owe me money. This

737
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 6: year and the Patriots allowed more rushing yards to receivers

738
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 6: than any team in the NFL this season one hundred

739
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 6: and forty nine. They allowed seven double digit runs to

740
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 6: a wide receiver this year. They allowed a thirty one.

741
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,720
Speaker 6: Shahidas had a thirty and a thirty one for Seattle,

742
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 6: so oh I haven't seen it yet, but if you

743
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 6: get longest rush numbers for Rashi Hiheed longest rush escalator

744
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 6: A ten A twenty to thirty, I think it's a

745
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 6: long one. What I have seen is you can just

746
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 6: bet what player will have the longest rush in the game.

747
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 6: Rashid Shaheed thirty to one. If we don't think New

748
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 6: England's going to run the ball well and we think

749
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 6: Walker might get bottle up a little bit, I think

750
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,439
Speaker 6: like fifteen twenty yards could get it done.

751
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 5: We get one shot. But man, when you're watching.

752
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 6: At the Super Bowl party and you're waiting, that's the

753
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 6: third courter, and you're, like Brandon said, one shot, I

754
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 6: know we're getting a run. And then you get the

755
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 6: end around and she Heed's getting the ball. Oh man,

756
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 6: that the juicier feeling in that moment when you have

757
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 6: one chance to hit these Shaheed bets.

758
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 5: That's the most funny you have in Super Bowl Sunday.

759
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 2: Again, the Super Bowl is very dumb.

760
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:52,240
Speaker 4: Last last year, my favorite bet ever was U Saquon

761
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 4: was minus three hundred to be had the most rushing.

762
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 2: Yards in the Super Bowl ten to one.

763
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 4: Was Jalen Hurts that who led the Super Bowl the

764
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 4: most rushing yards last year. So it's just I love

765
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 4: the idea. Just think outside the box. People, weird things

766
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 4: happen is. Super Bowl can get so wacky. It's the best.

767
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about Kenneth Walker also, because I've been

768
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:14,760
Speaker 1: betting all week.

769
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 3: I said last week I like.

770
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker over his receiving yardage total. Brandon, you've got

771
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 1: some Kenneth Walker props that you like as well. Again,

772
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 1: I didn't even know you were going to say this,

773
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:31,839
Speaker 1: but you're just going out of your way to make

774
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 1: me feel good.

775
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 6: That's what you brought me on here for it, Chad,

776
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 6: I like to make you look good. Yeah, Walker, I've

777
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 6: been betting his receiving in the playoffs. I hit this

778
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 6: again San Francisco. Now, obviously Sharbonea is out, so we

779
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 6: should get even more Kenneth Walker on the field. So

780
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 6: last ten games his receiving has gone a way up

781
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 6: two point seven catches twenty eight yards. I know that

782
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 6: doesn't sound like much, but before that one point two

783
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 6: catches for nine yards. All right, that's triple the yardage

784
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 6: in the last ten game compared to what he was early.

785
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 6: And he's gone from one point three targets a game

786
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 6: to three point one targets a game. Again, that's more

787
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 6: than double what we're getting there. And again, if we're

788
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,399
Speaker 6: looking at the script, what's the script here? We might

789
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 6: see some new England pressure up the middle. That is

790
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 6: one week spot for Seattle is the interier of the line. Well,

791
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 6: if you get pressure, what do you need. You need

792
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 6: the veteran running back who's gonna be on the field.

793
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 6: You need a quick outlet to dump off, get him

794
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,240
Speaker 6: into space and let him do his thing. Patriots allowed

795
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 6: the fifth most running back receptions on the season. Twelve

796
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 6: running backs had three or more catches against the Patriots.

797
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 6: So I like Chad. I like the receptions. Bet as

798
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 6: my base here over two and a half receptions. He's

799
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 6: had three catches or more in seven of the last ten.

800
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 6: But I think you're right to look at the yardage

801
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 6: as well, because in those seven games when he has

802
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,959
Speaker 6: three catches or more, he's averaging thirty nine yards a game.

803
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,240
Speaker 6: He's had twenty nine yards or more six of the seven.

804
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna skip your twenty yards that you're going for.

805
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,280
Speaker 6: I'm gonna play my escalator on yardage here. Thirty yards

806
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 6: plus one sixty, So maybe add that onto your yardage.

807
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 6: You get the receptions, and because I like receptions as

808
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 6: the higher play, because we could hit this with one.

809
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 6: You just need one catch and then he brought us

810
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 6: a long one and you might hit the yardage as well,

811
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 6: even if you miss the receptions number.

812
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm in, I'm all in, Brandon, It's exactly

813
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 1: what I'm looking for. What can you tell me about

814
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 1: anything on the Patriots offensive side of the ball. If

815
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:28,720
Speaker 1: we are expecting this to be the kind of game

816
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 1: where the Patriots are trying to make a comeback, what

817
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: are we looking at?

818
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that the one not dull one, but

819
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 6: one angle I do like for the Patriots if they

820
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:44,280
Speaker 6: can sustain it. The Seattle defense is kind of league

821
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 6: average defending short passes. That's by design. They want that.

822
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 6: If you're gonna check it down and go on these

823
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 6: twelve play fourteen play check down drives, Seattle says, we're

824
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 6: gonna live with that because guess what, We're gonna hit you, Drake,

825
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 6: and we're gonna get you to make a mistake somewhere

826
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 6: along the way. So I think you want somebody to

827
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 6: catch short passes. And I've been playing New England's running

828
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 6: back receptions as well, Ramondri Stevenson, but they cut onto

829
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 6: that one. They moved that line up to where I

830
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 6: think Kenneth Walker should be. It's three and a half

831
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 6: receptions now, so I'm going to go to the tight end.

832
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 6: Tight Ends against Seattle has been a good thing on

833
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 6: the season. Seattle has since Week eight not allowed a

834
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 6: fifty yard wide receiver to anyone, but again the Rams.

835
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 6: They allowed fifty to puk A Nakua about four times

836
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 6: a game and now one but anyone else no fifty yards,

837
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:34,919
Speaker 6: But running backs and tight ends are getting more look.

838
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 6: Seattle has allowed a twenty four percent target rate to

839
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 6: tight ends on the season, their top six in most

840
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 6: yards and receptions allowed to tight ends. So Hunter Henry

841
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 6: I think is in for a good game here. Not

842
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 6: a huge game, because again we like Seattle, but you

843
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 6: can be a tight end and just kind of chew

844
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 6: up some yards and catches on some short stuff down

845
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 6: the field. Henry's only had six catches in the playoffs.

846
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 6: But we already know New England's offense has sucked in

847
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 6: the playoffs. We had these weird weather games. They're just

848
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 6: running all week I don't really make too much of that.

849
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 6: Over three and a half catches he's had in nine

850
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 6: of seventeen regular season games, so just about half. But

851
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 6: again I looked at that one three and a half

852
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 6: receptions is minus one forty for the over. I don't

853
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 6: love doing a minus one of forty. You guys know,

854
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 6: I want to have the plus juice on something. So

855
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 6: I said, okay, if he gets those catches, how about

856
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 6: the yards again, similar to the walker thing we just said.

857
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:26,959
Speaker 5: Looked at the yards.

858
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 6: He's had thirty nine yards or more just over half

859
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 6: of his games, eleven out of the twenty, So I

860
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 6: like over thirty nine and a half hunter Henry yards.

861
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 6: It's plus one oh five at one book.

862
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 5: Basically, you just need forty yards here.

863
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 6: Sattles allowed forty to a tight end ten regular season

864
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 6: games and both playoff games so far. Even though they've

865
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 6: had these dominating wins, forty yards to a tight end

866
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 6: in both games, Henry has only had two games this

867
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 6: year where he had four catches or more, so you

868
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 6: hit the receptions but under forty five. But he's had

869
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 6: four games where he had fewer cats than that but

870
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 6: still hit the forty and over. So again, skip there

871
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 6: receptions and go for the yards and then I'll do

872
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 6: the escalator there as well. So over three nine and

873
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,800
Speaker 6: a half. But fifty yards plus one fifty five. Seattle's

874
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 6: allowed that twelve times already this season. Henry's done forty

875
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 6: nine yards or more eight times this season. And it's

876
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 6: a little nibble, probably not probably this is not great

877
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 6: for our Seattle side. But eighty yards plus six thirty

878
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 6: Henry does have a ninety and one hundred.

879
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:27,360
Speaker 5: And fifty in this season.

880
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 6: Seattle's allowed an eighty four times, So probably not a bet.

881
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 6: You want to parlay with Seattle minus twenty five? How

882
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 6: do you think Henry can have a big game?

883
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, anything we're missing, we got to give

884
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: out our final picks. But before we let Brandon go

885
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: anything we're missing, any bets you're thinking about anything we

886
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 1: haven't touched and we need to get Brandon's take on

887
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:50,359
Speaker 1: or that we want to share.

888
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 2: No, I mean, I love it.

889
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,919
Speaker 4: It's like again, just keep using your imagination for building

890
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 4: these parlays. If you're taking that Henry bet Drake may

891
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,879
Speaker 4: over twenty completions over thirty one pass attempts, throw them

892
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 4: in there, like again, just keep building it out.

893
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 2: People.

894
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 4: You try to write your own script for the game,

895
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,720
Speaker 4: and you're putting money behind it, and in your idea,

896
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 4: it might sound crazy. And then your favorite team, which

897
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 4: I experienced, whin's the super Bowl thirty points and has

898
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 4: a defensive touchdown. It's like, build these bets because it

899
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 4: comes through. It's it sounds whacking you're you're doing it.

900
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 4: It's like, ah, this will never hit.

901
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 2: They hit. That's what like.

902
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 4: I feel like he's giving you guys a script right now.

903
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 4: Of I mean, like we didn't even I didn't even

904
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 4: look at the script. I didn't mean to step on

905
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 4: them with a defensive touchdown one. But that's when I

906
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 4: I blindly play it every year and it happens like

907
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 4: I know, we just got one last year, but I

908
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 4: mean it's the NFL. These things happening too, So yeah,

909
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 4: I love it all.

910
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, people can tell all fired up.

911
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 4: I'm already right for Sunday and I got three more days, Chad,

912
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 4: just to try to make it to the Sunday.

913
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 1: I love.

914
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 6: I love my favorite team wins by thirty in the

915
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 6: Super Bowl. Just nonchalant, he says to a Vikings fan

916
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 6: and a Bears fan.

917
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 5: Like we have any idea what that means one.

918
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 4: Day, Chatty, he's been insufferable about the users. Don't give

919
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 4: him right now.

920
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 2: He's he's on a different stratosphere.

921
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 3: It's been so hard for me these past few weeks.

922
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 1: Uh, Brandon Anderson, read him, listen to him, follow him

923
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:18,879
Speaker 1: at the Action Network in the Action Network AP.

924
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 3: Thanks for coming on, buddy, Thanks guys.

925
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,840
Speaker 1: All right, Simon got to give out our final five

926
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 1: picks for the contest. Tuesday, we will announce the grand

927
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 1: prize winner of the Sharper Square Pro Football Pick Him Contest. Again,

928
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 1: thanks to everybody for playing. It's just it's fun to

929
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 1: get people together and compete with each other and have

930
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 1: a good time to talk about it. Our five official

931
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 1: Super Bowl contest picks.

932
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 3: Are you ready?

933
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 1: Seattle minus four and a half first half, New England

934
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. We're gonna give a little

935
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 1: bit of logic on all these over under. We're going

936
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 1: with the total under forty five and a half. We're

937
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 1: going with Drake May completions over nineteen and a half.

938
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:21,280
Speaker 1: And we're going with Remandre Stevenson total rush yards under

939
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: fifty three and a half. Anybody who's hearing that can

940
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: see that. We believe the script is going to be

941
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 1: Seattle wins this game. Patriots are going to have to

942
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 1: make a comeback in this game. Not a lot of

943
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 1: rushing attempts for Stevenson, not a lot of opportunities, and

944
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 1: Drake may have with a lot of short checkdown passes

945
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 1: with Brandon Anderson just talked about as being sort of

946
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 1: the one thing the Seahawks will like to give up.

947
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 1: Feel like everything we picked Brandon Anderson helped buttress our thinking.

948
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, hopefully we're we are right about how we think

949
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 4: the ship's gonna go here. But it just it feels

950
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 4: like that type of game right there when he broke

951
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,720
Speaker 4: it down that you know, there's a lot of numbers

952
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 4: backing up what we're saying. We don't just blindly want

953
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 4: to take this huge public favorite, right There's got to

954
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 4: be numbers and things behind it to back it up.

955
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 4: And I found tons of stuff that backed up argument,

956
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 4: and he's just adding to it right allow of those

957
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 4: numbers he gave out, that's great data, and it's just

958
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 4: you can whine and complain all you want if you're

959
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 4: a Patriots fan, that's real numbers, Like that's nothing you

960
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:36,280
Speaker 4: can push up back again.

961
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, when.

962
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 4: I look at this matchup and how I think it's

963
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 4: gonna go, we I asked Shat if I could put

964
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 4: that plus three and a half Patriots first half and

965
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 4: we're in there, because to me, that's the number is

966
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 4: not right, especially when're talking about Drake May who this

967
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 4: season is like seventeen and one or sixteen to two

968
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 4: against the spread in the first half, he's been incredible.

969
00:45:57,719 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 2: I want to take a position on that. Right.

970
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 4: Even though I think Seattle has a huge chance of

971
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 4: blood and win this game big time, I do think

972
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 4: it could be a feeling out process in the first half.

973
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 2: And that's that's a big number.

974
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:09,879
Speaker 4: Three and a half that feels like a gift by

975
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 4: our contest because most books have already moved to three

976
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 4: to two and a half. So we're getting sucked in

977
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 4: a little bit here because of the hook.

978
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 2: Can't pass up on that to three and a half.

979
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:22,319
Speaker 4: So I appreciate Chad letting me get this Newland plus

980
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 4: three and a half in there. We're definitely trying to

981
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 4: thread the needle taking the Seattle full game in the

982
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:28,240
Speaker 4: New England Patriots first half.

983
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 1: We're partners, buddy, We're in it together forever. Schlamiaso, Slamazeo.

984
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: We're like Lavernon Shirley. We're in Milwaukee's finest.

985
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 4: And I'll be quickly honest, it would hurt to lose

986
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 4: that that Patriots, but obviously in the first half. But

987
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 4: if the Seahawks are up by twenty five, me and

988
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,280
Speaker 4: Chad Ant can be cried. That's that's our dream scenario.

989
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 4: So it's an emotional edge as well. It's a great number,

990
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 4: but it's also you know, we're we're happy either way.

991
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 4: And I just I look at this game and as

992
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 4: much as I want to believe Seattle's gonna come out

993
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 4: hot and fast and put up a ton of points.

994
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 4: We talked about Vrabel's a great coach, I think he's

995
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 4: gonna have his guys ready prepared. So I'm excited to

996
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 4: see the chess match. That's gonna be qbac figuring out

997
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:16,240
Speaker 4: the next move against Rabel and how McDaniels goes against

998
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 4: you know, McDonald, this incredible defense that the Seahawks team has.

999
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,439
Speaker 2: So yeah, I really can't wait for the super Bowl.

1000
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a great match.

1001
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 4: And I know, like we said, there's not a bunch

1002
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 4: of People aren't going crazy about it right now, but

1003
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,439
Speaker 4: I think as it gets closer to kickoff, people well,

1004
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 4: this is a great matchup.

1005
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 1: I hope Kubiak doesn't start daydreaming about Fernando Mendoza in

1006
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:38,360
Speaker 1: the middle of the game, because I know what that

1007
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 1: affliction is like.

1008
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:43,080
Speaker 3: It happens to me. At least at.

1009
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 1: Least an hour of my day every day is spent

1010
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 1: dreaming about Fernando Mendoza and watching new compilation videos of

1011
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:51,919
Speaker 1: his touchdown run.

1012
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 3: That's it.

1013
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 1: I cannot lie Kubiak might have that running on a

1014
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 1: just like on a real as he's trying to call

1015
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:03,800
Speaker 1: plays of this game. Simon Jax's joyce was Seattle minus

1016
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 1: four and a half, No Minus six and a half.

1017
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 3: Brass Balls was.

1018
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: First Patriots first drive punt, Simon says was the under

1019
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: in the first quarter.

1020
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 3: I think we had eight and a half.

1021
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,800
Speaker 1: Look, I think we've made it pretty clear we're on Seattle.

1022
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 1: I'm in a lot of Seattle alts, and every other

1023
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 1: prop I'm on.

1024
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 3: Is basically.

1025
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 1: A narrative in which Seattle is winning the game and

1026
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: New England is losing the game and some outlier things happening.

1027
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 1: So I'm excited to see how all of this plays out.

1028
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 1: We will be back on Tuesday. This has been sharp

1029
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 1: or Square. Thank you so much for joining us here

1030
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 1: for our first season on the Volume podcast network as

1031
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:05,320
Speaker 1: Sharper Square. We launched in our hurry, but everyone joined

1032
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:08,760
Speaker 1: us and that is a gift. Thank you to Matt Mitchell,

1033
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:11,839
Speaker 1: our producer. Thank you to Andrew Samson, who kicked us

1034
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 1: off as our producer before Met Mitchell joined us.

1035
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,280
Speaker 3: Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.

1036
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 1: Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download usrom, Spotify,

1037
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 1: and Andrew Apple Pod wherever you get your pods, rate review,

1038
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: Subscribe this five starts say whatever you want feedback as

1039
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:31,840
Speaker 1: a gift until our Tuesday Super Bowl recap show.

1040
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:35,280
Speaker 3: Love you well right now.

1041
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 5: Pat, the hoop was over.

1042
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 7: You know they've waited maybe all their lives to be

1043
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 7: in this Super Bowl.

1044
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 1: They've waited two weeks since their last championship game.

1045
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 2: They're in those locker rooms now.

1046
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:46,439
Speaker 5: Do you just want to bust out of that locker

1047
00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 2: Room and get out on this field and get it

1048
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 2: started with me