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Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, welcome to another episode of the Market Disruptors Show. Today,

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Speaker 1: I am sitting down with someone I'm super excited to

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Speaker 1: talk to. We are sitting down with David Hunter. He

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Speaker 1: is a or i should say, the contrarian macro strategist

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Speaker 1: forty years on forty years plus on Wall Street. UH.

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Speaker 1: He's really been known for making really bold and accurate predictions,

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Speaker 1: and that's one reason why I'm excited to talk to

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Speaker 1: him today. Um. But anyway, David, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us. Yeah, thanks Mark, thanks for having me on. Yeah. So, um,

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Speaker 1: I've been following you. I've been following a lot of

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Speaker 1: your commentary, interacting with you a little bit, um, and

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Speaker 1: that's why I'm excited to talk to you today. But

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Speaker 1: for those that don't know who you are, they're not

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Speaker 1: kind of familiar. Why do you just give us a

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Speaker 1: little bit of that that background, that forty years on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street and kind of what you're doing now? Okay sure, um, yeah,

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Speaker 1: But my career is kind of split in half. I

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Speaker 1: spent the first half of my career UM on the

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Speaker 1: buy side. UH started in banks and then moved to

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Speaker 1: UH tech Strong, where I ran their equity pension funds.

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Speaker 1: UM had top percentile numbers there for five years running

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Speaker 1: back in the early the mid eighties. UM got recruited

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Speaker 1: out of there and went to Fidelity, not on the

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Speaker 1: mutual fund side, but on the pension side and ran

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Speaker 1: US money within global portfolios for a lot of foreign

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Speaker 1: accounts for them Rolls Royce and a lot of UK

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Speaker 1: accounts and UH some Australian and Japanese accounts. So UM

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Speaker 1: spent a few years there and then was recruited by

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Speaker 1: UM I T. T. Hartford to come in and and

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Speaker 1: begin an active equity effort. They had gotten out of

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Speaker 1: equities several years before and realized that they needed to

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Speaker 1: get back in. So I was brought in there to

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Speaker 1: kind of rebuild an equity department. UH and did that

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Speaker 1: for a few years UM and that was in the

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Speaker 1: late eighties to early nineties UM and then was a

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Speaker 1: chief investment officer on of a billion dollars firm on

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Speaker 1: Medicine Avenue, New York back in the mid nineties. UH.

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Speaker 1: Second half of my career was really as a sell

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Speaker 1: side strategist and that's still what I do today. Okay, great,

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Speaker 1: so lots of experience, lots of big, big experience, pension

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Speaker 1: pension fund institutional type experience. I love that. Now, Um,

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Speaker 1: as I kind of said, as I kind of introduced

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Speaker 1: you as the contrarian, I think, uh, a lot of

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Speaker 1: people who are kind of paying attention, they kind of

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Speaker 1: you know, they understand the old bye when there's blood

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Speaker 1: in the streets and whatnot. It's a lot harder to

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Speaker 1: do in theory than it is than just to recite

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Speaker 1: some cliche or some some quote. But um, you really

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Speaker 1: seem to be the contrarian. Um, and and you seem

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Speaker 1: to hold that against whatever the mainstream is is telling us.

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Speaker 1: Give me a reason why that is or how you

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Speaker 1: look at the market like that. Sure, Um, yeah, there's

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's popular today. Everybody loves to claim

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Speaker 1: their contrarian But as you say, um, you know, for

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Speaker 1: most people, uh, they aren't really committed to a contrary

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Speaker 1: and strategy. If it goes against them, they quickly shift gears. Um.

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Speaker 1: I started this business in seventy three, and you know,

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Speaker 1: I think probably within the first couple of years really

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Speaker 1: start seeing how um, you know, a crowd can be

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Speaker 1: very wrong. Obviously in Theft fifty was kind of the

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Speaker 1: extreme of crowds. Back in the nine event four. So

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Speaker 1: I learned very early on my career, um that uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, being contrary could pay dividends. Um. I read

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Speaker 1: David Dreaman's book at that time that was um countrary investment. Uh.

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Speaker 1: I can't remember the psychologist market, I think of what

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Speaker 1: it was. He did many reiterations after that that changed

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Speaker 1: the naime to countrary investment strategies and things like that.

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Speaker 1: But um, he was kind of a well known contrarian

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Speaker 1: and and his book was great. It really taught me

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Speaker 1: how important psychology was to the stock market. And I

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Speaker 1: was already there, but this kind of reinforced it. Uh,

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Speaker 1: great read. People should go on Amazon. He's passed away

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Speaker 1: by these his books are still out there. Uh. When

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Speaker 1: people ask me what what books did you read? I

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Speaker 1: go a lot. I'll see if they etcetera. So you

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Speaker 1: know a lot of readings over the years. Um, but

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Speaker 1: I usually either feature his book or a book by

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Speaker 1: Charles Ellis called um uh what is it called The

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Speaker 1: Loser's Game and talks about how the market is a

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Speaker 1: loser's game for most people. And it's again another contrarian

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Speaker 1: type approach to things. So so those kind of um

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Speaker 1: set me up uh, and we're at big influences early

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Speaker 1: in my career. UM. And I think by nature I'm

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Speaker 1: one of those that doesn't have to be with the crowd.

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Speaker 1: I've observed over my forty seven years on Wall Street

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Speaker 1: that the vast majority of people really don't like being

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Speaker 1: away from the crowd. They can try, but but it's

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Speaker 1: hard when things really go against you, uh to stick

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Speaker 1: with that. And as I say, I'm not a nat

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Speaker 1: Jurek countrarian, there are times when I think it pays

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Speaker 1: to be with the consensus, kind of in that middle

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Speaker 1: meat part of the move. A lot of times I

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Speaker 1: sound just like everybody else, but it's at the extremes,

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Speaker 1: both the bullish extreme and the barrish extreme, where um,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you're with the crowd, you're you're gonna

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Speaker 1: get slaughtered at some point. Yeah, definitely now for everybody listening. UM.

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Speaker 1: As I said in the intro, um, David is not

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Speaker 1: shy about putting out kind of what he sees, kind

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Speaker 1: of what he predicts, even giving levels um and so UM.

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Speaker 1: At the end, I definitely want to have him go

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Speaker 1: over what these levels are for the SMP index, is gold, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: Gonna go over those numbers, but before we get so

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Speaker 1: make sure you stick around to the end because that's

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna get to you. But I want to

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Speaker 1: kind of dig into what your thought processes so we

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Speaker 1: can learn how you're looking at the market and maybe

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Speaker 1: what we can take from that. So I'm just curious. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know the difference of being the contrarian um or

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Speaker 1: investing with the trend. Right, so people are told, you know,

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Speaker 1: don't catch a falling knife, wait til a trend gets developed,

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Speaker 1: things like that. So is it different like trend investing

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Speaker 1: versus contrarian investing? Oh for sure. I am very much

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Speaker 1: kind of a hybrid um. And I don't you know,

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Speaker 1: there's nobody out there probably that doesn't like I do,

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Speaker 1: or quite like I do. I've just developed over the

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Speaker 1: years of style. Um And as I tell people, because

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Speaker 1: people on Twitter, as you see, will say, how you know,

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Speaker 1: I want to learn from you. I want to learn

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Speaker 1: how do you do it? I go, there's no real

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Speaker 1: methodology to what do I do? So I'm gont those feels.

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Speaker 1: Some of it is, as I say, kind of my

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Speaker 1: shorthand as I look at fundamentals, I look at technicals. Um,

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Speaker 1: I do macro analysis and rely a lot on forty

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Speaker 1: seven years of macro background. Um, and look at sentiment, uh,

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Speaker 1: and then put it all together and you know, come

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Speaker 1: up with my conclusions and um. There are times when

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Speaker 1: I'm out of favor, and you know I was, you know,

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Speaker 1: I was bullish on gold. Um, you know, three or

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Speaker 1: four or five years ago because we had come down

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Speaker 1: from twenty eleven and I thought, you know, in seen,

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Speaker 1: you were beginning to start the next leg. Well, it's

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Speaker 1: had a nice run sixteen, and then it spent the

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Speaker 1: next few years consolidating that run. So I, you know,

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Speaker 1: there are times when I'm out of favor and out

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Speaker 1: of favor for a while, and you know you hear it.

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Speaker 1: But but generally I try not to get stuck in. Ah.

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Speaker 1: I was a value manager as a money manager, and

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Speaker 1: I learned the hard way over time. You know, buying

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Speaker 1: deep value and saying well, you know it will pay

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Speaker 1: off eventually eventually can can really hurt a career. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I try hard to look at trends and um,

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Speaker 1: not get stuck in just because of it's cheap, it

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Speaker 1: it looks good. Yeah. You know they say that being

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Speaker 1: early is the same as being wrong in a lot

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Speaker 1: of cases, right right, Yeah, it's kind of a cliche,

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Speaker 1: and there are time when I, certainly, as a contrary,

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Speaker 1: will argue against that. I mean, I'm not somebody really

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Speaker 1: worries about market timing per se. But obviously the closure

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Speaker 1: you can get the turning points, um, the better and

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Speaker 1: the more you're you're going to be seen as as accurate.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, now you've you you're you're definitely a macro guy.

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Speaker 1: You look at the big picture, um, as you've already said,

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Speaker 1: trends and fundamentals and things like that. So do you

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Speaker 1: I'm guessing you do. But do you look at like

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Speaker 1: do you think that the big picture, the macro picture.

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Speaker 1: I guess the long term picture is a lot easier

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Speaker 1: and a lot more accurate than the short term picture. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's a good question because so many people think the

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Speaker 1: shorter the time frame, the closer you can be to

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Speaker 1: being accurate. And all my career because I was a

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Speaker 1: value manager, uh and through them all my macro as

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Speaker 1: a bye side and cell side person. Um, I find

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Speaker 1: you stretch it out and I can be pretty accurate.

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Speaker 1: You know, it doesn't mean I'm going to be accurate

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Speaker 1: timing wise, but I can give you, you know, and

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Speaker 1: I get I get pushed back, or I get people

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Speaker 1: kind of jumping wanting to jump over one cycle to

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Speaker 1: the next, and I'm you know, I've created the monster

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Speaker 1: because I'll talk about things that might be out seven

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Speaker 1: or eight years and I have to kind of bring

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Speaker 1: them back in and say, let's get through this cycle.

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Speaker 1: People were worry about the next one. But but yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think longer term is is it's an easier call

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Speaker 1: from a big perspective standpoint. Sure, So, um, a lot

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Speaker 1: of people don't know what that means. What is short term,

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Speaker 1: what's medium term, what's long term? And I guess everybody

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Speaker 1: probably has different definitions. So, um, running your funds, the

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Speaker 1: pension funds, etcetera that you're in before and now probably

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Speaker 1: your own investments, Um, what is your typical investment time

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Speaker 1: frame or horizon that you're really looking at now? I mean,

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Speaker 1: do you look at it as you're looking a couple

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Speaker 1: of years? Yeah? I have my core portfolios tend to

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Speaker 1: be somewhere between a year and five years. So depending

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Speaker 1: on the situation, sometimes it will be shorter or will

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Speaker 1: be on the short end of that one to five year.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not afraid to tell people. You know, in

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Speaker 1: certain cycles, buy it and you may be holding this

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Speaker 1: thing for the next five seventy eight years. And that's

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Speaker 1: kind of what I see coming in the next cycle.

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Speaker 1: I have, as you know, one of the more bearished

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Speaker 1: scenarios out there for one, but I probably think most bearished.

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Speaker 1: But but I tell people the difference between me and

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Speaker 1: the super bear, you know, the woman Doomers is I

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Speaker 1: do believe there's a recovery cycle that follows this bust,

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Speaker 1: and in that recovery cycle that will be the balance

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Speaker 1: of the decade. Um. I think, Yeah, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to get ahead of myself, but I think the medals

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Speaker 1: will probably be what the dot com stocks were to

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Speaker 1: the nineties. So, you know, getting in in two and

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Speaker 1: holding ton or eight maybe maybe the way to go

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Speaker 1: the trade of the decade maybe. Um. Yeah, So I

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Speaker 1: definitely want to get into that. But like I said,

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Speaker 1: we'll kind of get into that at the end. We'll

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Speaker 1: make sure people stick around for that. But really when so,

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Speaker 1: so you're looking at like one year, I mean, obviously

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Speaker 1: now we're talking six eight months or whatever, but a year, um,

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Speaker 1: But I like that. But so that gives me a

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Speaker 1: good idea on the timeframe. But what type of indicators

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Speaker 1: are you looking at? Um? What are the main things

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Speaker 1: that you're watching. I mean you're a macro guy, so

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Speaker 1: like FED policy, interest rates, I mean what are you

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Speaker 1: looking at? Yeah, I think uh, FED policy certainly is

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Speaker 1: a big one for me. Um, And again I do

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Speaker 1: it a little differently than most. Um. Something that served

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Speaker 1: me well over the many decades is I am more

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Speaker 1: of a money guy than an interest rate guy. I

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Speaker 1: think the vast majority of the street thinks it's interest

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Speaker 1: rates that drives the economy. And in you know, in

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Speaker 1: a micro from a micro standpoint, that's true, lower rates,

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Speaker 1: you know, encourages increases, lending, etcetera. But it's really from

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Speaker 1: a from a FED standpoint, it's a quantity of money,

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Speaker 1: not the price of money that I pay most attention to.

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Speaker 1: And so um, you know that that certainly in March

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Speaker 1: got me to be much more bullish than anybody else

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Speaker 1: and saying, you know, I've been probably the most critical

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Speaker 1: person of J Powell for the last year, but he's

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Speaker 1: finally getting up to speed, and you know, since then

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Speaker 1: has been so so quantity of money is a big

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Speaker 1: one for me. Um. I you know, a big picture

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Speaker 1: charts will What I always say is, you know, if

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Speaker 1: the macro and the technicals and the fundamentals all jive,

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Speaker 1: it's like the three legged stool. I feel, you know,

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Speaker 1: I feel my convictions go and can go up. If

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Speaker 1: I only have two of three of those, then my

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Speaker 1: conviction is going to be a little less. And if

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Speaker 1: I only have one of the three, I'm probably not

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Speaker 1: gonna be there yet. And what were those three again? Um,

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Speaker 1: typically fundamentals, which can be macro fundamentals, um, the technicals, um,

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Speaker 1: and then um uh. FED policy now, Um, it's interesting

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Speaker 1: the FED policy. You talk about the money? Quantity of money?

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Speaker 1: Is that kind of like Stanley Druckon Miller. I think

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Speaker 1: he talks about that quite a bit. Um, kind of

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Speaker 1: like a little somewhat in line with his school of thought. Um, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't follow stand that much, so I'm not sure.

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Speaker 1: I think I was way ahead of him, way earlier

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Speaker 1: than him, in terms of looking the money and how

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Speaker 1: I read FED policy. I've been doing that since something three,

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Speaker 1: So yeah, so I'm curious about that specifically because yeah,

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Speaker 1: seventy three is a long time and uh, really that's

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Speaker 1: that's seventy one s seventy three was really the change

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Speaker 1: of the whole you know, money cycle, the whole world really, right,

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Speaker 1: we got off the gold standard, and all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden we've exploded with this uh, money creation, debt creation,

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Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. So since seventy three

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Speaker 1: was really that turning point, and you've been in this

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Speaker 1: since then, So I'm curious. I mean, I guess you've

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Speaker 1: been using that this whole time. Um, have you really

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Speaker 1: changed the way that you look at it because the

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Speaker 1: FED has changed it drastically? Or what is? What? What? What?

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Speaker 1: I look a lot of economic and market cycles which

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Speaker 1: tend to go together. So um, so you know, basically

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Speaker 1: you've had five cycles since since I came into the business.

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Speaker 1: You know, the seventies were one, the eighties were another,

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Speaker 1: more or less, um, the nineties another one, uh, the

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Speaker 1: two thousand's and then the two thousand tens, and and

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Speaker 1: in each one the FED helped kind of prime the

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Speaker 1: pump and provide the liquidity that helped drive the cycle.

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Speaker 1: And then things got overheated. The FED took the punch

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Speaker 1: bowl away, and that was a signal where you were

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Speaker 1: starting to pay attention to whether you know, the markets

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Speaker 1: were topping out. UM. What's changed is obviously the degree

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Speaker 1: to which the FED is involved and the magnitude of

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Speaker 1: the change in the money supply. So UM. And I

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Speaker 1: think that is because and one other thing I kind

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Speaker 1: of overlay on my macro is that I believe UM

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Speaker 1: supercycles exists that are basically I defined it as the

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Speaker 1: period between one depression and the next nine thirties was

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Speaker 1: last depression. I think we've been in a supercycle ever since. UM.

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Speaker 1: And you know, as you go through the supercycle, everything

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Speaker 1: kind of was two higher highs and and so debt

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Speaker 1: particularly took off in the last three decades, but it

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Speaker 1: was building before that, and now we're at the kind

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Speaker 1: of the end of that game. I think there's one

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Speaker 1: more leg beyond this one. UM. That's another thing where

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Speaker 1: I different. Most people kind of think we're at the

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Speaker 1: peak in debt. I said, no, you're probably gonna see

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Speaker 1: where we're at twur and fifty trilling globally. Now, I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised c. Three before the end of this decade.

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Speaker 1: Most of that will come in response to the next

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Speaker 1: year's bust, but they will probably expand beyond that. So UM.

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Speaker 1: So it's you know, I just think we're you move

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Speaker 1: in these cycles, whether supercycle or or the smaller cycles,

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Speaker 1: you move from the bottom left to the top right,

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Speaker 1: and as you get uh you know, closer to the

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Speaker 1: top right, things go parabolic or certainly get steeper in

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Speaker 1: the slope. Yeah. Um, Harry Dent talks a lot about cycles.

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Speaker 1: He's somebody that we've had on the show. Um, and

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Speaker 1: I'll follow it for a long time as well. I

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Speaker 1: think he's calling it like a ninety year cycle that

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Speaker 1: we're in right now. Um. Yeah, I'm not people want

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Speaker 1: you know, they hear me talk cycles, and most of

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Speaker 1: mine are really talking about the economic cycle and the

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Speaker 1: market cycle that goes along with that. Uh, supercycles a

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Speaker 1: little bit bigger stories than that. But I'm not in

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Speaker 1: the time cycles. I'm not one of those guys that

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Speaker 1: we're in your cycle or we're in the you know,

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Speaker 1: the cycle is going to kick in over this cycle.

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Speaker 1: I don't mean those kind of time cycles. Okay, good,

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Speaker 1: thanks for clarifying that. Um, I was gonna just say, uh,

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Speaker 1: he is you said that. Your your call, which we'll

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Speaker 1: get into at the end of the drop, is maybe

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Speaker 1: one of the most bearish and Harry Harry might also

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Speaker 1: join you in that very very various camp. But, UM,

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Speaker 1: I'm curious. So you're looking at the money supply, obviously,

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Speaker 1: the FED policy things like that. Um, you said the fundamentals,

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Speaker 1: So when you're talking about the fundamentals, are you talking

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Speaker 1: about the economy, Because it seems like today, more than ever,

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Speaker 1: especially obviously since the pandemic happened, the economy is completely

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Speaker 1: irrelevant anymore at this point. Yeah, I would probably disagree

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Speaker 1: with that in that very much disagree, But but I

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Speaker 1: get the confusion right now. Well, I'm asking a question. Yeah, yeah, okay, sure, Um, well,

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Speaker 1: I certainly disagree with the concept the I think I

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Speaker 1: understand the confusion of people looking and you know, the

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Speaker 1: market seems totally separated from what's going on on the ground.

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Speaker 1: You know, the economy is really in trouble, and and

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Speaker 1: yet we're at all time highs in the stock market.

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Speaker 1: Part of that is, and again this is kind of

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Speaker 1: my looking at at cycles, but there's a six to

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Speaker 1: nine month lag to when the Fed um puts the

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Speaker 1: money in the system to when you get your results.

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Speaker 1: I think the street over and over and over cycle

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Speaker 1: to cycle. You know, the generations of investors since I

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Speaker 1: joined expects that to be almost media and it's partly

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Speaker 1: because of their focus on interest rates. They think, okay,

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Speaker 1: they lowered rates, they cut rates. Therefore, in the next

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Speaker 1: quarter we're going to see the results. Most of the

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Speaker 1: results are six and nine months out, so you know,

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Speaker 1: we we saw the big infusion of money in March

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Speaker 1: and April and June. Um, I think most of the

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Speaker 1: expansion is really six months from them. So you're talking

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Speaker 1: about we're just entering that period where the market, where

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Speaker 1: the economy gets start getting stronger. So I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: not all that so it is fairly immediate, but there's

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Speaker 1: an other things, other factors like we shut down the economy,

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Speaker 1: that we opened up the economy, so so there are

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Speaker 1: other factors that can shorten some of that. But I

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Speaker 1: do think people don't understand that part of what the

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Speaker 1: market is doing is looking past the trought and understanding

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Speaker 1: that all this money that's being created, which is beyond

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Speaker 1: anything we've ever seen in history, is going to lead

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Speaker 1: to stronger expect stronger results that we expect. Yeah, so, um,

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Speaker 1: it does seem that they're looking at the money side

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Speaker 1: more because on the economy side, you know, I don't

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Speaker 1: actually know what the latest numbers are. I haven't looked,

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Speaker 1: but whatever, tens of millions of people are still unemployed. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, some reports say of those jobs might never

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Speaker 1: come back. Obviously with the stimulus programs that we have,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people may choose to never come back

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Speaker 1: because because of the stimulus and whatnot. Um. And so

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Speaker 1: you know, from an economy standpoint, I mean my stores

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Speaker 1: in my area are still operating at capacity, right, so, uh,

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Speaker 1: travel is never coming back or whatever, so uh the

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Speaker 1: account and and then then we have obviously the real

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Speaker 1: estate thing with the pent up foreclosures forbearances, etcetera. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know just from the economy standpoint. Um, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it is very difficult to get back to that or

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Speaker 1: why I were at that all time high. I get

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Speaker 1: what you're saying. Where it's like the market's like a

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Speaker 1: discounting mechanism, so it's it's basically projecting where we'll be

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Speaker 1: in the future. The marketing economy work on different time frames, right, Um,

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Speaker 1: But it seems like everybody's really looking at the FED

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Speaker 1: is going to backstop the market, right the FED has

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Speaker 1: committed to do whatever infinity uh by bonds, probably buying

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Speaker 1: equities et cetera. And it seems so do you give

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Speaker 1: more weight to that now, like you kind of understand

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Speaker 1: this balance or you still think the economy is doing

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Speaker 1: good or going to do good in the future that

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Speaker 1: you know, the broad picture that I painted about, you know,

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Speaker 1: when the money gets infused and when it results, that's

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Speaker 1: you know, the world isn't perfect and that's not how

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Speaker 1: it always works exactly. And then you add in the

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Speaker 1: complications time of we actually shut down the economy and

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Speaker 1: we are impacting a lot of small businesses and as

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Speaker 1: you say, you know a lot of restaurants, a lot

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Speaker 1: of um, consumer oriented businesses may not make it and

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Speaker 1: are still shut down. So so you've got to kind

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Speaker 1: of balance what is going on in the real world

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Speaker 1: with what normally happened with you know, FED policy versus

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Speaker 1: when it kicks in. UM. And I think so they

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Speaker 1: kind of, um, you know, influence each other or overlay

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Speaker 1: with each other. Um. What I would say is that's why, um,

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Speaker 1: it's it's a difficult thing. I talked about a global

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Speaker 1: deflationary bust in and people start questioning me on the

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Speaker 1: bus or refer to my call of the bust, and

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Speaker 1: I'll go, um, yeah, but we really the bus started

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Speaker 1: in March. Um, so it's yes, we're gonna have a

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Speaker 1: rebound in between, but it's all one bust. It's not

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Speaker 1: two bus. It's not like we have a bust in

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Speaker 1: you know, the second quarter, and then we're you know,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have this short recovery and then we're gonna

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Speaker 1: have another bus. I said, it's all one bust because

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Speaker 1: a lot of the things leading to that bust are

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Speaker 1: those shutting businesses aren't going to come back right now.

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Speaker 1: Are are the fact that airline traffic is not going

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Speaker 1: to be there. Even even if the economy gets stronger

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Speaker 1: in the next few months, you're not getting anywhere near

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Speaker 1: back to what is a normal I his period. So

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Speaker 1: so it is you know, there are kind of various

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Speaker 1: forces in this that aren't all in sync. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, I know kind of what you were saying.

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Speaker 1: People ask you what books you read, and you're like, well,

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Speaker 1: I've read a lot of books. But really a lot

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Speaker 1: of this is just doing it over a long period

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Speaker 1: of time. And the brain is so amazing, right, it

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Speaker 1: gets so much information and it just starts putting pictures

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Speaker 1: together for you. So, uh, there's a lot of information

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Speaker 1: to digest and and you've been doing a long time,

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Speaker 1: and so it just paint paints a perfect picture in here.

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Speaker 1: Well that's exactly right. People think they can if I

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Speaker 1: give them the few books that were the big influencers,

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Speaker 1: that they'll be able to do what I do. And

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Speaker 1: I go, I'm not saying this from an ego standpoint,

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Speaker 1: but you know, fourty seven years of cumulative knowledge isn't

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Speaker 1: something you find in a book. And I you know,

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Speaker 1: there's certainly people that entered the business when I did

426
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: that weren't successful or you know, don't have the same

427
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 1: views I have, uh, successful or otherwise. Um, it's everybody different.

428
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,119
Speaker 1: And I one the one thing I tell people is,

429
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 1: you know, younger people that say, well, how did you

430
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 1: get to where you're at? Or you know your knowledge

431
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 1: base and stuff? I said, well, one big thing it's

432
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 1: important is learned from your mistakes. We all made will

433
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 1: make mistakes in this business. It's a humbling business. And

434
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 1: the difference between good investors and bad is the bad

435
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: investors will repeat those mistakes cycle to cycle, or you know,

436
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 1: over and over, whereas good investors make that mistake once

437
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 1: and say fool me. Once you're not can fool me again. Yeah.

438
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: My dad always told me when I was a kid

439
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: growing up, He said, once is an accident, twice as stupid.

440
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: Don't do this anything overly. So so let's uh we'll

441
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: transition to start looking at some of your kind of

442
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: forecasts and uh and calls for the future. Um, the

443
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,719
Speaker 1: big debate that everybody started, we'll start with the big

444
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,120
Speaker 1: stuff and then we'll kind of work our way down

445
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: into more granular. But the big debate is inflation or deflation.

446
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: And uh, I think you know, we talked about the

447
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 1: FED since seventy three printing this giant uh money bubble,

448
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 1: right whatever, three trillion dollars of debt and it seems

449
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 1: like you know, we've seen, you know, through each correction

450
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: it's trying to de leverage and then the FED pumps

451
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: it back up and then de leverage and pump back up. Um.

452
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 1: So I guess the the inflation deflation is is the

453
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 1: debt going to implode and deflate faster than the Fed

454
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: can pump it back up? Uh? What do you see

455
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: or I'm guessing maybe you kind of see it doing

456
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: something like this. Yeah, it's uh, you know, there's there

457
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 1: are people out there as you know, as Peter Schiff

458
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 1: or some of the others that I called true that field.

459
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 1: We're at the end of the cycle, the supercycle, or

460
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: whatever they want to call it, the debt cycle. And

461
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: you know they're they're thinking, we're imploding now or in

462
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: the process of imploding now, and who knows where we

463
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: are after this, and it's gonna be a long time

464
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 1: before we come out of it. Um. I believe there's

465
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: another cycle before we get to that. So I think

466
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 1: we've been in disinflation since, um, the early eighties. You know,

467
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 1: we peeked out in inflation in the early eighties and

468
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 1: it's been a ratching down of inflation over many cycles. UM.

469
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: And what happens is the FED then ten FED and

470
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 1: and policymakers tend to overshoot, so they are so worried

471
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: about what they're in now that they can go too far.

472
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: So amazingly, and I've said this for many years. Um.

473
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 1: You know, inflation reached obviously twenty nine, amazingly, that was

474
00:26:55,840 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: forty years ago, and we're still were about inflation, even

475
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 1: though inflation has come down from twenty to almost zero,

476
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 1: so that that was a very traumatic period. And you know,

477
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: you weren't there. Obviously you're younger than I am, but

478
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 1: a lot of people in the business today never you know,

479
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 1: unless you were there. It's really hard to understand how

480
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 1: um traumatic that was. We went from you know, middling

481
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 1: inflation five inflation in five years. But is a is

482
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 1: a lot of that because of the way CPI has changed.

483
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: I mean obviously home prices, gasoline prices, milk and steak prices, education,

484
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 1: healthcare for sure have all skyro and the money supply

485
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: is all skyrocketed since the eighties. So even though the

486
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: CPI with the FED looks at his inflation is down,

487
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: the reality as most people see inflation or no, yeah,

488
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 1: I would say no. I mean yes, for sure, there's

489
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,959
Speaker 1: you know, there's elements of the economy that see inflation

490
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,719
Speaker 1: go a lot here, so that you get that argument.

491
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: A lot of yes, the indexes say we're disinflating or

492
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: we're moving towards zero inflation, but people's real pocketbooks to

493
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 1: know that that's not the case. Um. But overall, I

494
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 1: don't think it's so much manipulation of indexes or anything

495
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: like the inflation index or anything like that. I really

496
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: do think it's global. Um. We we got such access

497
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: capacity in a response to don't forget, we'd be just

498
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 1: a little history. In the late seventies or early eighties,

499
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: we went through a huge boom of expanding heavy industry capacity.

500
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, steal steel, autos, paper mills, etcetera.

501
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: All everybody got caught up in that inflation cycle and

502
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: commodities were going crazy, energy was going crazy, and you

503
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 1: had this huge build up of capacity and then all

504
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 1: of a sudden um because inflation was running away and

505
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: economy was very overheated. It took a you know, Paul

506
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: Volker to come in and say and frankly, it was

507
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: that problem of most people are Keynesians and look at

508
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,959
Speaker 1: interest rates, not money. G William Miller was FED chairman,

509
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: and he's sitting there going, I'm in the late seventies

510
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: and he's going, I'm taking I'm raising rates, so I'm tightening.

511
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 1: But he was raising rates at much lower rates, at

512
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: much lower levels than they would have been if he

513
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 1: had left them alone. But he was pouring money and

514
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: to keep rates from going too far up or too fast.

515
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: As a result, he was pouring fuel on the fire,

516
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 1: the inflation fire, and we went from five percent inflation

517
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: to twenty percent inflation in a few years UM. And

518
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: that was all part of the commodity boom, etcetera. When

519
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: Volker came in and said, Okay, I'm no longer worrying

520
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 1: about targeting rates. I'm gonna let rates go where they

521
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: have to. We're take tightening the money spy down. That was,

522
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 1: you know, the first step towards a monitorist approach, saying

523
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 1: money is important, money is what's causing this. And they

524
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: really have off and on with Vulca and then Greenspan

525
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: uh and and some extent bernanke Um. That continued to

526
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: be the process. And so wheneverything's got out of hand,

527
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 1: they brought you know, they kind of brought it back

528
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: in again. So I think it was a ratcheting down

529
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 1: of inflation because they did understand money creates inflation. UM.

530
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: Now now they've gone so far that I think next

531
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: year is deflation. And and when we get that again,

532
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: the gloom and dumers think it's, you know, we're down

533
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: for the count. I argue, and I've been arguing this

534
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: for five years because I've been talking about about coming

535
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 1: um that and probably longer than that. But um that

536
00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: in a bus we will see money, and I've been

537
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: saying for a few years it will probably you'll see

538
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 1: the FED balance you grow the twenty trillion, maybe even

539
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: thirty trillion. And it's because in that global bus, the

540
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 1: FED has unlimited ability to print because they don't have

541
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: to worry about inflation. There's you know, there's a six

542
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: or nine month lag to the economy. There's a two

543
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: or three year lag to inflation. So that's where I

544
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: disagree with a lot of people on the street today, economis, etcetera.

545
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 1: Who are we're in about inflation nowity? You know the

546
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 1: money that the money that we're creating now is going

547
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: to lead to hyper inflation down the road, but you're

548
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: two or three years away from them, maybe longer because

549
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: next year is deflationary bus. Um okay, so so um

550
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: yeah that that makes sense. So then if I'm following

551
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: that line of thought, or I should say to recap basically,

552
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: what you're saying is, um, we're going to see a

553
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 1: where we've been in deflation. We're going to see a

554
00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 1: big deflationary move because of the bus coming sometime next year.

555
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: But the reaction of the FED, which is then to

556
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: just jump in and print unlimited as you said trillion. Then,

557
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 1: so we have a deep continue deflation is sharp drop

558
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 1: in deflation. But then the reaction till printing then pushes

559
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 1: us into inflation or hyperinflation. Just to just to correct

560
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: a little bit. Um, we're in disinflation still until you

561
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 1: get into negative inflation. Um, it's disinflation. Is it's inflation

562
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: growing at ever lower rate. So we're still above zero,

563
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 1: so it's disinflation. Um. We go into deflation next year

564
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: because the economy goes into a double dip. You know

565
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 1: that we had the first um dip March through June

566
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: or whenever, March through May. UM. And I think next

567
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,959
Speaker 1: year is a much bigger step down in the economy.

568
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: And we're so close to zero on inflation even if

569
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: we get an uptick in the next six months that um,

570
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: you're gonna easily go through zero. And I I actually

571
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: think you could see three to five deflation. That's a

572
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 1: big number everything. I would say the vast majority of

573
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 1: people that I think they understand deflation today think of

574
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 1: deflation in terms of what Japan experienced. You know, several

575
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: years ago, you know, their economy still was close to

576
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 1: zero or above UM. You know, deflation was maybe slightly

577
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: below zero. I'm talking about something we haven't seen since

578
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: the thirties, you know, three to five negative inflation, an

579
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: economy where you're gonna have, you know, down double digits

580
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: in GDP. So we saw you know, the kind of

581
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: the precursor of that March or March to eight March

582
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 1: and April. But I think we'll see it for much

583
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 1: of the next year. And and people go, what if, well,

584
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: the fence printing money, why would you know your you

585
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 1: believe money is going to keep you afloat. I think

586
00:33:55,240 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 1: two things. One, as has been said a lot by others, Um,

587
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: the Fed can take care of liquidity in the short run.

588
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 1: Insolvency is a different story. And I think by the

589
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: time we get to next year, there's a lot of

590
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 1: companies that just can't hold on um. And there's you

591
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 1: see me on Twitter say this a lot um. Markets

592
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: and economies don't. It's not a linear relationship. Things don't

593
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: go in a straight line. So you're gonna have a

594
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: period where policy is not gonna be linear either. I

595
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 1: think if we if we're looking at a blow off

596
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: in this stock market, you get some uptick inflation and

597
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 1: next three months, three or four months, oil goes from

598
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 1: forty to fifty UM. Grain prices go you know, sharply,

599
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 1: sharply higher as they are. Um, I think you're gonna

600
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: see the FED pause. They've already paused basically in the

601
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: last several weeks. I think you'll see them pause. And

602
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 1: I think that pause in a period when we're so fragile,

603
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 1: it doesn't take much to send this thing or straight down.

604
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: And so I think every every time they've paused in

605
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: the past, we've seen what's happened. So I'm not talking

606
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: about it, and I'm not talking about market. I mean

607
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: the economy. The economy just deeds needs that liquidity just

608
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 1: to stay afloat. The problem is that liquidity. It's it's uh,

609
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 1: it's more like giving heroin to a junkie, right, So

610
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: it's like they just need more and more and more.

611
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:20,879
Speaker 1: It doesn't solve the problem. It just keeps them going.

612
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,439
Speaker 1: I mean, companies that are already struggling with too much debt,

613
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 1: giving them more debt isn't necessarily going to help. It's

614
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: very tough one. As I say a lot, or I

615
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 1: say once in a while, UM, I'm you know, I

616
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 1: certainly talk about um. Whether I think should be done.

617
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: But most of the time I'm focused on what's going

618
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 1: to happen, whether I agree with what they're doing or not.

619
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,919
Speaker 1: So I'd like to say I'm forecasting and not moralizing.

620
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 1: You know. I think in particularly in today's world, the

621
00:35:54,960 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 1: Austrians have become a cult almost on the street or

622
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: on Twitter, and you know, they want to spend all

623
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: their time attacking, you know, the FED or the central banks,

624
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: or criticizing everything being done. And I go, if you

625
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: want to follow, you know, if you want to go

626
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: back on the gold standard today, start right now. Um.

627
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: And if you want to, you know, ratchet money down

628
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: to what you think it should be, which is close

629
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: to zero, we'll all be living in cage of unemployment.

630
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 1: The Fed and the Treasury are doing what they have

631
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 1: to do. It doesn't mean it's going to end well.

632
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: I have the most dire forecast for the thirties and

633
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 1: forties or certainly theties. You know, I think we're gonna

634
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: see a depression many fold bigger than the Great Depression,

635
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: many many We could have eight percent unemployment, we could

636
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: have a totalitarian system replace what we have. But that's

637
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 1: one cycle from now, not now. And uh. And if

638
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,320
Speaker 1: they want. If they did what the Austrians proposed today,

639
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: we'd have it now. Well, I am, I'm both So

640
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: I'm definitely in the Austrian coult as you call it.

641
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 1: I wouldn't call it that, but I do believe in

642
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 1: Austrian colt and I do. But I do agree with

643
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 1: what you're saying. I mean, obviously to go back to

644
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 1: that strict system today would cause massive problems. I think

645
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 1: the bigger argument is if we would have stuck with

646
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: that system all along, we never would have created the

647
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 1: problem in the first place. That I'm not moralizing, right,

648
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:28,439
Speaker 1: That's a whole another conversation. I always say, we don't

649
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: invest in the market as we want it to be,

650
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:32,439
Speaker 1: or as we think it should be, but rather as

651
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 1: it is, which which is exactly what you're saying, right exactly.

652
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 1: Um so, um, let's get back into this kind of forecast. So, um,

653
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 1: this bounce as you're conn and so if we look

654
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: at you know, the Great Depression crash or even the

655
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: two you know, the dot com crash, you typically see

656
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 1: this whatever drop retrace and then it's kind of like

657
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 1: a technical a t a kind of bounce. Um, is

658
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: that kind of what you're seeing this bounce and then

659
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 1: the second wave down kind of like what we've seen

660
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 1: in other market cycles and the economy. Uh, in terms

661
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: of the market, I mean you're saying early next year

662
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:10,479
Speaker 1: a potential drop. Yeah obviously, Yeah. I think my view

663
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,720
Speaker 1: is um And you know, I could have easily because

664
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: I had I was calling for a global bust um

665
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 1: prior to the virus and UM, so I could have

666
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 1: easily in March. I have looked at what happened, and

667
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: I called for a ten percent direction market when it

668
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 1: was thirty on the SMP. And so when we got

669
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 1: down under three thousand, I'm going, I got my ten percent.

670
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 1: I'm I'm bullish again. We're going, We're going when I

671
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:41,240
Speaker 1: had a melt up call then so so that last drop,

672
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: you know, the thirty four percent dropped, the last of

673
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 1: that dropped. I was wrong. I I didn't missed it too. Um.

674
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 1: You know, I pulled away when I realized that I

675
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 1: was wrong. But but um, but I could have easily

676
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 1: when we were down thirty four percent said this is

677
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: the beginning of the bust or the beginning of the

678
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: bear market, and where you know we're heading for a

679
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 1: thousand on SMP. UM I didn't for whatever reason. I

680
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 1: stepped back, looked at all my work, and I said,

681
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 1: sentiment in particular was so negative at that time. It

682
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 1: was basically back to where we were, um in you know,

683
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,760
Speaker 1: the bottom of two thousand nine. And I just said,

684
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 1: now this is it's a little bit of an overshoot

685
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 1: from the trend. You know that you can't draw out

686
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 1: the trend line and overshot it. But I think it

687
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 1: overshot it for just a few days. And I said, no,

688
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 1: I think this is a fake out. I still believe

689
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 1: we're going to see the melt up, and so so

690
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: I think we're in that, you know, in spite of march,

691
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: and the march was obviously driven by a virus. Um

692
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 1: in spite of all that, I think we're in what

693
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: I call melt up for blow off stage that will

694
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: take us into a parabolic I have used two as

695
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 1: the secular market bottom. Uh and I you know, I

696
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 1: said I couldn't go back to seventy four, but UM

697
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 1: use a T two because I think that was the

698
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 1: beginning of the disinflation, the peak inflation in the beginning

699
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,720
Speaker 1: of disinflation cycle, and most of what's driven the secular

700
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 1: bowl market has been interest rates going from f to zero,

701
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 1: so you know, inflation going from to zero. So um so,

702
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: I really think two is kind of the beginning of

703
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 1: this market, and we're in the last spinning of of

704
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: that secular bowl market, and in that last stenning, I

705
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 1: expect this to see a parabolic un like any we've seen.

706
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 1: So that gets and that that parabolic is after the

707
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 1: bust of next year. No, no, no, the parabolic is

708
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: now so then uh so now so then some sometimes

709
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 1: and I for everybody listening, timing is the most the

710
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: most difficult thing, and really trying to time it, I

711
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 1: think is a fool's Errand um so I like to

712
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: look at probabilities and we look at levels, and we

713
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: just watched the market unfold. So I'm not trying to

714
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: stick you to any of this, but kind of what

715
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 1: you're seeing is a continued rise this uh meltop I

716
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,279
Speaker 1: call blow off top whatever um where maybe we see

717
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 1: equities rally um another leading up maybe sometime in the

718
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 1: next six eight months and then the next big drop down.

719
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 1: Is that kind of what you're seeing. Yeah, my numbers

720
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 1: um are SMP forty two. And I'll be the first

721
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,760
Speaker 1: one to say good overshoot that. I'm pretty comfortable. Usually

722
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: when I give targets, those targets are minimum targets. There

723
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: there what I think the target will be. But they're

724
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 1: also kind of I'm saying, if anything, it will overshoot them.

725
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 1: So sp I think we could be there. UM. It's

726
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 1: funny because I had way back in March that use

727
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 1: those numbers and said you couldn't even see it by

728
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 1: labor day. So then I get people three months four

729
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 1: months later going well, you predicted labor day. I said, no,

730
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: you're missing a keyword. I say, could, which is really

731
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 1: what I really mean is, um, it's possible we could

732
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 1: see it as early as labor day. UM. But you know,

733
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: whether it's the end of this quarter, whether it's in October,

734
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 1: I think it will be pre election. Um that we

735
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: see the top are pretty close to the top. So

736
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:22,879
Speaker 1: I'm expecting those numbers to be seen in the next

737
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 1: month or two UM. And as that, I think you

738
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:31,439
Speaker 1: can get the fifteen thousand uh, DAL thirty six thousand UM.

739
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 1: So those and those all fall pretty much in that type.

740
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:40,919
Speaker 1: Move from here um and and I think that will

741
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:44,399
Speaker 1: be parabolic obviously if we do that in the next

742
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 1: two months. You can envision it's basically straight up UM.

743
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 1: And and then I expect whether it begins before the election,

744
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: probably after the election, uh you know, whether it's late

745
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: this year or early next. I expect the role over.

746
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 1: As you know, tops can can full around at the

747
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: top for a little while, so it doesn't mean you

748
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 1: get a top tick and then the next step is

749
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 1: a big step down. It might full around for weeks.

750
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 1: But either way, I have no idea. Either way, I

751
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: expect most of the first half of next year to

752
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 1: be a bear market UM, and I'm calling for again.

753
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:29,399
Speaker 1: Potentially it could be sixty percent. It could be, but

754
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 1: I think there's a real possibility of an eighty percent

755
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:38,319
Speaker 1: bear market in the smp UM, and obviously that that

756
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:41,720
Speaker 1: will look seed the I think we had a sixty

757
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 1: plus percent bear market in two thousand eight nine UM.

758
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 1: But that makes sense where I think we're the secular peak. UM.

759
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 1: What gets confusing is, as I you know I mentioned

760
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 1: to you earlier, I'm not in that camp that says

761
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 1: this is the end. There's another recovery cycle. But this is,

762
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: in my opinion, the secular top in the stock market.

763
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 1: So you can have a cyclical bull market from say

764
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 1: twenty late through six or seven or eight UM and

765
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 1: not get anywhere near the highs that we reached this year.

766
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 1: So let's say we hit SMP you know you can,

767
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: and then you go eight percent down. You can have

768
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 1: a run from a thousand on SMP or on the

769
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: SMP back to three thousand or thirty four hundred, and

770
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:37,240
Speaker 1: you're still way short of where you got this this time.

771
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 1: So so there'll be a cyclical bull market to follow this.

772
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:44,839
Speaker 1: But secular, I think is peaking the cycle, got it

773
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 1: UM now that and and that secular peak after this

774
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:54,320
Speaker 1: UM after is at like another six eight year cycle. Yeah,

775
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 1: I think, because it's probably gonna be uh you know.

776
00:44:57,640 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 1: And and one thing that I've learned over many years,

777
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 1: as I could write the book on this UM is

778
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 1: that leadership and I'm not unique to other people understand this,

779
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 1: but but I feel strongly about this. Leadership changes each cycle,

780
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 1: or different leadership each cycle. So, you know, seventies were

781
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:22,280
Speaker 1: energy and commodities, the eighties were the consumer growth stocks,

782
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 1: the you know, the food and beverage and drugs, etcetera. UM.

783
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 1: The nineties was obviously teching couple goods. Two thousand's was

784
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: finance and housing. Um, two thousand tens has been the

785
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 1: social media and other tech you know area. Um, I

786
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 1: think the next cycle is going to be very much

787
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 1: mirroring the seventies. It's gonna be commodities and industrial stocks again.

788
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 1: So so it will be What happens is those leaders

789
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 1: of the previous cycle face all kinds of distribution. So

790
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 1: every time they lift their head after that eight percent drop,

791
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 1: you know there's a different Another level of people would

792
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 1: say I'm taking my money out. You know, I got

793
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:06,760
Speaker 1: my costs back, or I'm I'm you know I waited

794
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,359
Speaker 1: to get this far. I'm gonna take it and run.

795
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 1: So you know, so you have distribution all the way

796
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:17,399
Speaker 1: through the next cycle and maybe two cycles sometimes. Yeah. So, UM,

797
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 1: I want to jump into the confident and saying there's

798
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: not gonna be a winner, right, So um jumping into

799
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,720
Speaker 1: the UH. As you said, we had the different cycles

800
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 1: of different types of assets that cycled back in the

801
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: seventies and now again you think the commodity, the commodities,

802
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,959
Speaker 1: the medals and hard assets things like that. Um. So

803
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 1: I know you've put out several signals on gold and silver.

804
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: I think you're calling forty five dollar silver UM. Is

805
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 1: that leading up into this uh in in in with

806
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 1: this market parabolic run and then also crashing or do

807
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: you think there's a way that gold UM continues to

808
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:57,919
Speaker 1: do well even through a crash. Yeah. Up until UM

809
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:01,280
Speaker 1: probably the last several months, I was in the camp

810
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 1: that felt that UM, gold and silver would would get

811
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 1: hit pretty much. Gold probably less than the market, but

812
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: silver could be hit as hard as the market. So

813
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 1: I had calls of you know, UM gold falling well

814
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 1: below a thousand and silver falling to single digits again. UM.

815
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 1: I now am of the opinion that UM silver probably

816
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 1: gets the thirty five and then corrects back to the

817
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 1: mid twenties UM, so far less than the market gold

818
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 1: gets to, whether it's hundreds of minimum, UM probably corrects

819
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 1: back to, say eighteen hundred. So I don't think you'll

820
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 1: see anywhere near the damage in those that you'll see

821
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 1: in the broader market, and actually they'll be defensive areas UM.

822
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 1: You can maybe even before I would say you know,

823
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 1: we're heading for a deflationary bust. Everything going down except

824
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 1: maybe treasuries and the dollar. UM. Now i'd say, you know,

825
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 1: the pressure medals probably they're going down, but they're not

826
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 1: going to go down nearly what the market is, so

827
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 1: they've become a defensive holding. Yeah, and and my my view,

828
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 1: the next cycle, what you know about is is a

829
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 1: big one. So um, you know, I think gold can

830
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 1: get to ten thousand plus and silver three hundred dollars

831
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 1: plus um. So so you know, do you really want

832
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 1: to get cute with these? You know, if you're a trader,

833
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:32,919
Speaker 1: certainly you can. If you're an investor, you can hold

834
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: these through the through the bus I think, yeah, I

835
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,879
Speaker 1: love that, you know, um in two in two thousand eight,

836
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 1: as you said that equities fell about six, gold only

837
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:45,799
Speaker 1: fell about so it fell, but it was a much

838
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 1: better place to be losing. Of course, the response to

839
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 1: the crash, which was massive money printing, caused gold to

840
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:56,839
Speaker 1: shoot right up. And of course you're saying the exact

841
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:58,879
Speaker 1: same thing and this cycle that the response will be

842
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 1: instead of what was in two thousand and eight it

843
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:04,280
Speaker 1: was about a trillion. Now you're talking twenty to thirty trillion.

844
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:06,279
Speaker 1: So look at the magnitude of what that can do,

845
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: which is obviously I'm guessing why you're getting too that

846
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:14,919
Speaker 1: ten absolute and it's a you know, it's a global bus. Um,

847
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:18,800
Speaker 1: we're gonna get hard, but other other parts of the world,

848
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 1: like Europe, probably get even harder. Every central bank is

849
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 1: gonna be putting money out there as fast as they can. So,

850
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 1: so gold on worldwide basis gonna cut a bit. Now

851
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 1: be me being in that Austrian coult or really you know,

852
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:38,839
Speaker 1: believing in in in sound money, gold bitcoin as well. Um.

853
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,399
Speaker 1: I think that on top of that, we also see

854
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 1: the sentiment changing, so I think we have less and

855
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:48,839
Speaker 1: less confidence in the fiat currencies, and so that will

856
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:51,479
Speaker 1: only add extra fuel to the fire of what gold

857
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: is doing. I think I agree with that. I think

858
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:59,839
Speaker 1: you you're gonna here for many years. Um, the does

859
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 1: or to go back on a gold standard, and probably

860
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 1: we're we're closer to that today in terms of a

861
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 1: mindset than ever before or certainly in the last many decades. Um.

862
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 1: The only problem is it just it's not it's not practical.

863
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 1: It can't happen because the minute we stop the pring press,

864
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 1: we've got you know, hundreds of trillions dollars of debt

865
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 1: you know, coming right back at us. So so I

866
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: don't see how that happens until after a total collapse,

867
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: and then I think it could happen. Yeah, I mean

868
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:40,399
Speaker 1: a total collapse where all the currencies collapse, people lose

869
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:43,760
Speaker 1: complete trust and currencies and the only way to restore trust,

870
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 1: because everything has to be revolving around trust, So the

871
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 1: only way to restore trust would be to go back

872
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 1: to at least some sort of a fractional reserve or

873
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:54,280
Speaker 1: gold system or something like that. Um, all right, UM,

874
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 1: I'm curious what are your thoughts on bitcoin. I do

875
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 1: not follow bitcoin, and I I I'm skeptical. Uh, and

876
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 1: I fully admit that it could be a huge, huge winner. UM,

877
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't think we know enough yet

878
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 1: to know how it haven't been battle tested. Isn't that?

879
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:19,240
Speaker 1: It isn't that what gives you the asymmetric upside, because

880
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 1: it doesn't you know, information is not not not out there,

881
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 1: it's not. But but right now you've got so many

882
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:31,400
Speaker 1: particularly fast players in it, a lot of retail but

883
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:35,400
Speaker 1: certainly a lot of um guys that didn't necessarily do

884
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 1: a great job as hedge fund managers. You know, guys

885
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 1: that I had big followings but then blew up. And

886
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 1: then you're talking about but we don't have to name

887
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 1: any names, and and so I just think it's easy

888
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 1: to kind of and and certainly it fits a narrative

889
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 1: that UM people are very distrustful of the central banks

890
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 1: and the governments, and so it fits a narrative that

891
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 1: this goes out side of that. And UM, I just

892
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 1: I really want to see how it comes through the

893
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 1: bus before I'm gonna UM say yeah, this is a long,

894
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:15,320
Speaker 1: long lived UM alternative to gold. For example, what about

895
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:17,759
Speaker 1: what about people like Paul Tutor Jones, you know, one

896
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 1: percent portfolio allocation wishing now he would put two percent

897
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 1: allocation towards it, But I mean one percent portfolio allocation

898
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:28,919
Speaker 1: just to UM sort of kind of set that portfolio better. Yeah.

899
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:32,360
Speaker 1: I I operate on you know, the reason as you

900
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 1: see me on Twitter, some people think is ego or

901
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 1: you know, stubbornness or whatever. I'm a conviction guy. If

902
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:43,240
Speaker 1: if I have you know, fourty seven years of stuff

903
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:47,800
Speaker 1: that can help me have conviction, I'll stand by something

904
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 1: that I say, and where everyone else is folding, I

905
00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:54,399
Speaker 1: can't have conviction bitcoin, So it just doesn't. I'd much

906
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:57,800
Speaker 1: rather be in gold and silver because I have complete

907
00:52:57,800 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 1: conviction that you know, I commit shit on short term moves,

908
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 1: but I know where it's going, got it? Got it? Okay,

909
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 1: makes sense and I agree with that. Um, I always

910
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:09,880
Speaker 1: tell people the same thing. It's all about the conviction.

911
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 1: Like I can't tell you the exact allocation or percentage

912
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 1: or whatever, like you need to know how you feel

913
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 1: about it. So you got your just gotta fit your

914
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 1: you know your risk um parameters. You know, if if

915
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 1: you're a guy that you knows gets nervous and can't

916
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: sleep on on something, don't go there. Yeah exactly. Now

917
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 1: I know we've gone long. I want to wrap it

918
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 1: up here. I'd just like to ask kind of maybe

919
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:37,480
Speaker 1: one more question that we'll kind of wrap it up with.

920
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 1: But um, obviously you've given us, uh some pretty uh

921
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 1: you know, pretty good calls and when we have levels here,

922
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 1: you've kind of given us time frames, etcetera. So how

923
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:50,720
Speaker 1: do you how how are you personally or how would

924
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 1: how would how do you see playing this out? So? Um,

925
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 1: do you stay long in the market to ride, let

926
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 1: the winners run long and then you just set trailing

927
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 1: stops to capture profit when the market draw? Are you

928
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 1: trying to time the market? Like? How how do you

929
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 1: play this? And well, yeah, I really stay away from

930
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:12,399
Speaker 1: any kind of UM trading talk because for two reasons, One,

931
00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 1: I'm not a trader, but two I have to walk

932
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 1: a really careful line as a strategist. I'm not a

933
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. UM, and people get mixed up between

934
00:54:25,080 --> 00:54:27,759
Speaker 1: what's advice and what's you know, As long as I

935
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 1: stay talking my macro, I'm fine. Uh. And And also, UM,

936
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:37,879
Speaker 1: you know, you really have so many different people out

937
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 1: there with different risks UM. You know, some a risk

938
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:44,319
Speaker 1: of ourse something or not. People have different financial situations.

939
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:48,359
Speaker 1: So I really hesitate even if I could providing any

940
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 1: kind of blanket advice. What I will say is I

941
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 1: do think um that next year is a year where

942
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 1: kepital preservation is going to be supreme. Uh. And as

943
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 1: I said before, I think the dollar and you know,

944
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:04,720
Speaker 1: I'm a bear on the dollar short term. I'm looking

945
00:55:04,719 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 1: for five on the dollar here on d X y UM.

946
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:13,239
Speaker 1: But I think the dollar will will be one of

947
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 1: only two things. The US treasuries and the dollar will

948
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:21,400
Speaker 1: be two things that will buck the downside in the bust. UM.

949
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 1: I think we'll see the ten year down to zero

950
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:28,919
Speaker 1: uh next year early next year. UM. And I think

951
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 1: the dollar could go as high as one forty so UM,

952
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 1: so the you know, those are places where you can hide, um,

953
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 1: when you deem it time to preserve capital. You just

954
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 1: I would also say one last thing, and that is

955
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 1: that And I could be wrong, but I suspect if anything, um,

956
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 1: this this bear market is going to be faster than

957
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:57,400
Speaker 1: two thousand eight nine, um, just because of all the

958
00:55:57,440 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 1: derivative exposure and leverage in the system. Those things speed

959
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 1: things up and make them exacerbate them. So so I'm

960
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 1: thinking this thing you could see three or four or

961
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:11,839
Speaker 1: five thousand point down down, do you know? I don't know.

962
00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 1: I just think, um, it's gonna happen very fast when

963
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:20,359
Speaker 1: it happens. Yeah, I can appreciate that answer, and uh yeah,

964
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:22,799
Speaker 1: you definitely definitely can be giving advice to people. It's

965
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 1: such a big broad subject. But um, for those listening,

966
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 1: let me try and decipher that just a little bit. Um.

967
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 1: You know he talked you You talked about a very

968
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 1: sharp and severe drop, but then of course another huge

969
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 1: cycle up. So for those that have a very long

970
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 1: time preference, UM, you could just hold through that as

971
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 1: you talked about with the gold cycle, probably might be

972
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 1: a good way to do that, for sure. In the medals, right,

973
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 1: but you know, nobody wants to sit through draw down

974
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 1: or draw down or whatever that is. So follow the trends,

975
00:56:56,600 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 1: look at your levels. I like to manage risk, so locations,

976
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 1: position sizes, and of course stop losses. Um. I'd recommend

977
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:05,960
Speaker 1: that for anybody. Of course, everybody has to figure out

978
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 1: what their own risk management is. Um. But but look

979
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:12,799
Speaker 1: to those tools, because yeah, nobody wants to sit through

980
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 1: an apercent draw down. And as as David is saying,

981
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 1: the dollar is going to be strong, so it might

982
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 1: not be a bad place to hide out. UM. Okay

983
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 1: did I did I side for that? Okay, yeah, that

984
00:57:22,880 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 1: was fine, And yeah, I think most people know. But

985
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 1: you know, you drop, you have to double to get

986
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:32,120
Speaker 1: your money back, so that's right. That really become costly,

987
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 1: and especially if this is a secular top um for

988
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:39,200
Speaker 1: those that are in indexes, you may never see the

989
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 1: levels again that you see in the next month or two. Yeah,

990
00:57:43,480 --> 00:57:46,400
Speaker 1: I think we'll see a change in the investing market

991
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:48,480
Speaker 1: and index the way index funds are used. So that's

992
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 1: a good point. Um. Great, well, that is so much

993
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 1: good information, David. I know we went long. I really

994
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 1: appreciate you sticking around and given us so much good information.

995
00:57:57,080 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 1: Anything else that you need to add or want to add, UM,

996
00:57:59,640 --> 00:58:01,960
Speaker 1: I will just echo what you just said. I think

997
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 1: indexes have You know, in a disinflationary environment, indexes thrive

998
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: because it's all about POSI P multiple expansion in an

999
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 1: environment where I'm describing wen talk bunds. But in an

1000
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:17,440
Speaker 1: environment where I'm describing and its going from zero to

1001
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 1: fifteen or twenty again, I think it could reverse the

1002
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:25,080
Speaker 1: entire disinflation cycle. UM. Over the next decade. UM, you're

1003
00:58:25,080 --> 00:58:28,680
Speaker 1: gonna have the reverse, which means multiple contraction. That is

1004
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 1: not an environment for index funds. So you know, we've

1005
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:34,480
Speaker 1: been lucky in this cycle because people could just throw

1006
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 1: their money in index fund and probably I'll perform most

1007
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 1: active managers in the environment I see coming after this bus,

1008
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be quite the opposite. Great. What

1009
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,080
Speaker 1: a great note to end on, UM, David. I appreciate

1010
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:50,120
Speaker 1: you so much for taking this time with us, UM,

1011
00:58:50,160 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 1: for everybody listening. I am going to make sure to

1012
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 1: link in the show notes. UM. You do a quarterly newsletter, UM,

1013
00:58:56,760 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 1: so if anybody wants to get more information from you,

1014
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 1: I'll have a link to that as well. Of course,

1015
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 1: as you've already said, we've talked about, you're very active

1016
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:05,480
Speaker 1: on twitter UM. I would highly recommend to follow David again.

1017
00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 1: I'll link to his twitter um down below in the

1018
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 1: description as well anywhere else that they should follow. No,

1019
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:15,400
Speaker 1: that's good, that's perfect. Okay, So that's it. So again, David,

1020
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Okay, thanks Mark, really enjoying