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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing up, so I'm sitting up to cash touch time.

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Speaker 2: And that's all.

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Speaker 1: We'll see. Most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabay if.

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Speaker 1: You want to pass, and we are underway. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network NFL Podcast. We are back to continue

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Speaker 1: talking NFC win totals with the NFC South and the

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Speaker 1: NFC West. I am your host, Chris Raybon, joined as

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Speaker 1: always by the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, my guy Stucky,

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Speaker 1: as well as the homie Sean Kerner coming over to

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Speaker 1: join us yet again from the FANN Flex. Let's yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's get right into the NFC South. I'll start at

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Speaker 1: the top, and Sean, since we already saw the you know,

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Speaker 1: we've been talking a lot, I'll start with stuck. Stuck

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Speaker 1: twelve and a half is the win total for the

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Bucks. The over is juice to plus one fifteen.

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Speaker 1: How are you feeling about this Bucks team that got

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Speaker 1: pretty much everyone back from that Super Bowl run?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, what is what is there really to

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Speaker 2: talk about. It is probably the most boring team in

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Speaker 2: the NFL this year, Like from a free season perspective.

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Speaker 2: They return every starter. They won the Super Bowl. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I really wanted to light the under. I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: they just won. They went on a big run at

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Speaker 2: the end of the year, and I thought they were

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Speaker 2: gonna be over inflate. I mean, I'm right at twelve.

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Speaker 2: You know, the under twelve and a half is juice

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Speaker 2: to is juice to the under. If you look at

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Speaker 2: their schedule, it is a team that won the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: Their schedule life is the twenty fourth you know, bright schedule,

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Speaker 2: so it's a pretty easy schedule. And can they run

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Speaker 2: it back? I mean, I guess the question with them.

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Speaker 2: I love their defense, it's just another I mean, everything

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Speaker 2: is back. We don't need to go too much into

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Speaker 2: They won eleven games last year. Wins were eleven point two.

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Speaker 2: They had a good bye week in Week nine. They

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Speaker 2: do only have eight home games. I guess the only

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Speaker 2: concern would be they know how good they are, and

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Speaker 2: there's such you know, you have Tom Brady coast early on,

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Speaker 2: you know, do they get upset by the Cowboys and

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Speaker 2: they take a couple of losses early on, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of a super Bowl hangover. They'll be there in

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Speaker 2: the end. I think the win total is about right.

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Speaker 2: They just want to avoid injuries and they'll try to

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Speaker 2: run it back. It's just a really uninteresting team to make.

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Speaker 2: So we know who they are, and they're basically the

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Speaker 2: exact same team as last year. That's what teams are bad.

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Speaker 2: That's what I could say about them, especially.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, one, Yeah, I've already mentioned special teams. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that was the first mentioned it in this

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Speaker 1: whole you know, few podcasts, So I'm surprised I would

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Speaker 1: have had the over. But Sean, any thoughts on this

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Speaker 1: Campa Bay team coming off the Super Bowl win.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's not much to say in terms of like

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Speaker 3: negative things because they're the only team that finished in

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Speaker 3: the top five in both offensive and defensive DVOA last year.

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Speaker 3: They return all twenty two starters coming off a Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl win, So you know, what is there not to like?

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Speaker 3: It kind of feels like a trap, honestly. You know,

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Speaker 3: last year they enjoyed the best injury luck of twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty one.

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Speaker 2: Although I guess if you.

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Speaker 3: Factor in that, Tom Brady was apparently playing with like

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Speaker 3: a torn mcl or something. Maybe they're going to be

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Speaker 3: better this year if he's one hundred percent. The only

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Speaker 3: way I see this team really failing as if you know,

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Speaker 3: Tom Brady gets hurt obviously, or he finally starts to

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Speaker 3: decline at forty four. But you know, there's really no

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Speaker 3: evidence to suggest that he's going to drop off this year.

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Speaker 3: So you know, I do like them. I'm pretty much

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Speaker 3: in line with this total. I can never bring myself

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Speaker 3: to bet the over twelve more than a half on

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Speaker 3: a team. But a couple of months ago, when I started,

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Speaker 3: you know, running my sims and doing my power ratings,

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Speaker 3: I took them to win this division at minus one

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Speaker 3: sixty five. I thought it was ridiculous. Now it's up

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Speaker 3: over minus three hundred, so the value's gone. But you know,

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Speaker 3: they can win this division even with just ten to

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Speaker 3: eleven wins. So that's why I like betting them to win.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, they need a lot to go wrong. I

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Speaker 3: mentioned they had the best injury luck last year, but

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Speaker 3: even if they do get hit with injuries this year,

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Speaker 3: their depth is so ridiculous they can survive even a

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Speaker 3: couple injuries. So yeah, it's hard to really nitpick this team.

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Speaker 3: They're the number one team I think going into the season,

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Speaker 3: so this is still a pass for me, though.

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Speaker 1: I think Dampa Bay has a really good shot to

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Speaker 1: go like sixteen in one. You know, it's it's nuts

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Speaker 1: because I was kind of what you stuck. I was

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Speaker 1: thinking that, you know, as a better Tampa Bay wins

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, goes on a late run, and I

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Speaker 1: thought they would be overvalued. But I look at the schedule.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to read this schedule off just to kind

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Speaker 1: of give the full emphasis of the upside for this team. Dallas, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's a pretty one of the more Yeah, that's what

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Speaker 1: I'm saying that that's probably one of the two toughest

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Speaker 1: games on the schedule. So yeah, Dallas Atlanta at the Rams,

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Speaker 1: that's that's reasonably tough. At New England, Miami at Philly,

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Speaker 1: Chicago at New Orleans, then the bye at Washington, the

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Speaker 1: Giants at Indy at Atlanta, Buffalo that's another tough one.

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Speaker 1: New Orleans at Carolina at the Jets and Carolina. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a team that could really go fourteen to

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Speaker 1: fifteen wins into this season, maybe probably have nothing to

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Speaker 1: play for in Week eighteen, maybe even Week seventeen. So

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Speaker 1: what I think is interesting is, yeah, it's not really

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Speaker 1: sexy to bet over twelve and a half wins. But

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Speaker 1: I was looking at their conference odds to win the

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Speaker 1: NFC and they're there are plus three hundred at BETMGM.

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Speaker 1: They're obviously the favorite. And usually I look at the

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Speaker 1: top of the board and those are the teams I'm fading.

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Speaker 1: But Tom Brady has made it to the super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Intended is twenty one seasons. That's just under fifty percent

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Speaker 1: the odds in probably a twenty five percent chance. I

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Speaker 1: get regression, I get that, you know, I get outliers,

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Speaker 1: but you're talking about almost double the odds of what

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady has done over his entire twenty year career.

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Speaker 1: So I actually like betting Tampa Bay just sewan like

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Speaker 1: you like betting the division. I think that's smart as well.

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Speaker 1: I like betting Tampa Bay to win the conference. Will

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Speaker 1: they win the Super Bowl? I don't know, But Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady's gotten there in almost half of his professional season,

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Speaker 1: so I think there's actually some value on the favorite

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Speaker 1: to win the conference. So that's how I'm attacking Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 2: But I have if you're gonna bet.

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Speaker 1: The over twelve and a half, I really can't argue

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Speaker 1: with it because I see fourteen fifteen wins for this team,

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Speaker 1: you know, at a ceiling, and I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: thirteen is still more like a median. So yeah, there's

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Speaker 1: not much to say about this team. It's that they

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Speaker 1: lucked out on a scheduled last year. They had a

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Speaker 1: tough schedule and I think that that combined with you

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Speaker 1: know a lot of new pieces, you know, moving parts,

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Speaker 1: took some time to get acclimated. That contributed to their struggles.

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Speaker 1: But they really caught a break in terms of the

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Speaker 1: schedule this here. So yeah.

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Speaker 3: So I mean at MGM, they offer a line for

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Speaker 3: every win total. So if you want like over fourteen

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Speaker 3: and a half at plus four hundred, I think that

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Speaker 3: would fit in line with what you're saying, Ray Box,

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Speaker 3: just invest in their ceiling, get the best price. So

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Speaker 3: I think like over fourteen and a half plus four

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Speaker 3: hundred I think would be.

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Speaker 2: A way to go.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you got it. That's a great call because that's

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Speaker 1: what I really want to attack for Tampa Bay is

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Speaker 1: you know the conference at plus three hundred, you know,

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Speaker 1: over fourteen and a half at plus four hundred, there's

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Speaker 1: ways to attack this team with juicy odds. Still, so

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Speaker 1: that's how I think you got to do it. Twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half of the win total. It's not really

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Speaker 1: as much upside there, especially when you could get to,

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Speaker 1: you know, the division, even if they go under that

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Speaker 1: that win total, because it's there's really a chasm between

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Speaker 1: them and whoever you think is the next best team.

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Speaker 1: Probably I would say the Saints, but there's a big

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Speaker 1: gap there.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: The way the word goes wrong with the win total

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Speaker 2: is if, like I said, there's like a little super

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Speaker 2: Bowl hangover, they just you know, they know how good

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Speaker 2: they are, and they start one and three, right, so

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Speaker 2: they lose that, they lose Opening Night the Cowboys, they

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Speaker 2: could lose at the Rams, and then that New England game.

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Speaker 2: I mean that game is going to be wild. I

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Speaker 2: can't wait for that one, just to Belichick, Brady, but

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Speaker 2: you know they start one and three and then they

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Speaker 2: pick it up along those lines. I'll just throw out

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Speaker 2: a survivor tip, like I'm not using the bucks in

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Speaker 2: the first like four or five weeks, thinking that they

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Speaker 2: might maybe drop a game, just you know, because of

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Speaker 2: that Super Bowl hangover, and I obviously want to keep

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Speaker 2: them for later in the season. So I'm hoping that

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Speaker 2: you know, the Bucks either, like you know, if they

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Speaker 2: lose to the Cowboys and it knocks out a bunch

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Speaker 2: of people in the survivor pool, so I'm avoiding them

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Speaker 2: early survivor wise. But that's it off of me out

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Speaker 2: of the box.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I see a lot of points in that game.

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Speaker 1: I see that being a high scoring game. Let's move

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Speaker 1: on to the New Orleans Saints, who are in second

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Speaker 1: place in terms of the win totals at bet MVM

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Speaker 1: eight and a half is the total minus one point fifty.

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Speaker 1: It is juiced forward the over sean. I'll start with you,

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Speaker 1: looks like Jameis Winston is going to be behind center

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Speaker 1: in Week one for the Bucks beating out, Saysom hill

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Speaker 1: Stone on Michael Thomas.

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Speaker 2: But how are you.

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Speaker 1: Feeling about this Saints team that's going to look a

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Speaker 1: lot different from what we've seen over these past this

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Speaker 1: past decade plus?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the under eight and a half here

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Speaker 3: at plus one twenty five. I sort of figured Jameis

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Speaker 3: Winston would start Week one, but you know, last year

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Speaker 3: they had the fourth best injury luck and they're moving

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Speaker 3: on from a first bout Hall of Famer. Say what

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Speaker 3: you will about Drew Brees and how he finished his career.

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Speaker 3: You know, I think it's safe to say that this

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Speaker 3: this team is going to start to, you know, take

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Speaker 3: a downturn, especially with Michael Thomas injured. This is one

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Speaker 3: of the worst wide receiver units in the league. Marque

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Speaker 3: Marcus look good, but still they don't really have much else.

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Speaker 3: So it makes me think that Taysom Hill may be

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Speaker 3: the better fit until Michael Thomas comes back. You know,

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Speaker 3: they have arguably a top five zero line, solid running

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Speaker 3: back duo with Alvin Kamara and Latavius Marie. Really solid defense.

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Speaker 3: You know, they were number two in d v A

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Speaker 3: last year, so why not become more of a power

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Speaker 3: football team. So, you know, I think Jamis Winston similar

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Speaker 3: to Ryan Fitzpatrick. He just fans the range of outcomes

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Speaker 3: for this team. I think there's more potential of an

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Speaker 3: implosion here either way. Head coach Sean Payton should be

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Speaker 3: able to get the most out of this offense. But

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Speaker 3: you know, moving on from Drew Brees, I think this

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Speaker 3: this is a team that's probably trending towards a rebuild,

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Speaker 3: So I'm projecting them Colasters are an eight and nine team.

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Speaker 3: I like getting the plus one to twenty five on

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Speaker 3: the under here. But yeah, this is one of my

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Speaker 3: favorite bets of this division. Becky, where are you on

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Speaker 3: these New Orleans Saints?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would I would lean under as well. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they just they lost so much. I mean, the offensive

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Speaker 2: line is still elite. They still have two really good safeties.

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Speaker 2: But you know, you'd lose Thomas, you lose your quarterback,

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Speaker 2: defense loses you know, key pieces all over. You lose Hendrickson,

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Speaker 2: he lose Jenkins, Malcolm Brown, Rankins, anzelone. That cornerback two

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Speaker 2: position is still a major question mark. So you know,

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Speaker 2: you know outside of you know, on the opposite side

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Speaker 2: of Cam Jordan, is he going to get help? There's

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Speaker 2: just a lot that they lost. They're gonna maybe need

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Speaker 2: rookies at linebacker to step up, maybe Turner at defensive

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Speaker 2: end another rookie. So there's there's holes on this defense.

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Speaker 2: Out still should be a pretty good defense and it'll

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Speaker 2: be well coached, but it's definitely gonna take a step

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Speaker 2: back based off of the losses. I think it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be Ken Crawley I mean Patrick is Patrick Robinson. Even

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Speaker 2: if Patrick Robinson hurt, I don't even know if he's

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Speaker 2: still on the can he retire? Yeah, I think a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, it's like baby Patrick Robinson's like

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Speaker 2: thirty five was gonna be cornerback too. That's a that

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Speaker 2: was a scary thought. That shows you how bad cornerback

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Speaker 2: situation is. I think it's gonna end up being Ken

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Speaker 2: Crawley or maybe a rookie Pulson, a debo from Stanford

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Speaker 2: will have to start. You know, they're gonna play a

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Speaker 2: lot of man defense too. The Saints they played as

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Speaker 2: much man as anyone in the league last year. You know,

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Speaker 2: they were very healthy last year. Plus nine turnovers. Special

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Speaker 2: teams is also gonna drop. Maybe I'll get a special

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Speaker 2: teams mentioned lots Is heard he's out eight weeks and

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Speaker 2: they lose one of the their best, the best punters

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Speaker 2: in the league. So special teams are going to take

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Speaker 2: a drop. So you know, with these underwhelming receivers, it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be tough. I mean, I'm I show value on

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Speaker 2: the under I trust you know. It's it's a tough

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Speaker 2: schedule too. I trust Peyton to keep them competitive. So

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Speaker 2: they'll probably be you know, around to have a shot

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Speaker 2: at the wildcard. But if things go bad with Winston,

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Speaker 2: who knows, there's there is a low floor here. It's

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Speaker 2: under or nothing for me with the Saints.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a tough I'm staying away because I

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Speaker 1: can't bring myself to bety under for a team that

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Speaker 1: top you know, pretty very good offensive line, very good coaching. Uh,

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Speaker 1: still one of the best, even with you know, the

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Speaker 1: offense in flux, still one of the best offensive playmakers

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Speaker 1: in football. And Alvin Kamara. Uh, you know, the Saints

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Speaker 1: are the type of team that just when you think

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Speaker 1: the cupboard is bere they tend to find guys out

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Speaker 1: of nowhere, like at wide receiver. Remember, you know Colston

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Speaker 1: was a really late pick. You know, Willie Sneed came

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Speaker 1: out of nowhere. It was very productive for them, Like

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Speaker 1: the Saints do this. So I think Calaway can hold

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Speaker 1: down the fort. They got Juwan Johnson with the position

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Speaker 1: switch to tight end. I think they'll figure out a

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Speaker 1: way to get it done. The coaching's very good. But

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Speaker 1: I am a little worried about the schedule because you

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Speaker 1: got Green Bay, got you go to Foxborough in Week three, Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, you go to Washington right before the Bibe

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Speaker 1: and come out of it in Seattle. Then you play

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. You get an easy one against Atlanta, but

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Speaker 1: then you go to Tennessee. Two weeks later, it's Buffalo,

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Speaker 1: then Dallas, Tampa Bay again a couple of weeks after that,

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Speaker 1: so you know closed they closed the year with Miami

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Speaker 1: Carolina and add Atlanta that they could conceivably you know,

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Speaker 1: two of those are at home, Atlanta's on the road.

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Speaker 1: They could conceivably go three and oh there. But I

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Speaker 1: the schedule is going to make it a sweat. But

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Speaker 1: I think people will be relatively surprised at how well

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Speaker 1: the Saints function because remember, you know, they had Taysom

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Speaker 1: Hills and they still were I know they had you know,

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Speaker 1: they played that Denver team, but you know, things went

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Speaker 1: a lot smoother than people thought, even in that stretch

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Speaker 1: with Taysom Hill. And uh, you know, Jamis beat him

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Speaker 1: out for the job. He's a more funk like a

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Speaker 1: more traditional quarterback. I think the coaching will work out

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Speaker 1: with him. I don't think Jamis will completely implode. I've

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Speaker 1: what I've seen out of him, So yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: I think the Saint's gonna surprise the people. But I

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Speaker 1: still think the over is a tough a tough sell

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Speaker 1: just because of the schedule is gonna make it a sweat.

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Speaker 2: So you mentioned this with Courdy. You mentioned having Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 2: is a good thing for the tougher games. I mean,

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Speaker 2: James Winston is the ultimate I variance quarterback. So for

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Speaker 2: some of these you know, tougher games, and that's bitch

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Speaker 2: what makes them tough to project. It's one, okay, is

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Speaker 2: it gonna be Winston all year long? Two? You know

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Speaker 2: that he's awful as a favorite and he's really good

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Speaker 2: as an underdogs. You know that he's probably gonna cost

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Speaker 2: his team a couple of games, uh, just with a

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Speaker 2: you know, an ignorment amount of interceptions, and then he's

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Speaker 2: probably gonna pull off a couple of upsets when he's

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Speaker 2: just electric. Yeah. The problem is, I just don't know

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Speaker 2: if they have the receivers with the Thomas.

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Speaker 3: Al Yeah, if Peyton smart Hill, start Winston when they're

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Speaker 3: an underdog and Hill when they're facing you know, Kendall

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Speaker 3: quarterback in Denver, why.

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Speaker 2: Would you bother starting to wait up?

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Speaker 3: So if he's smart, he could use his quarterback through,

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Speaker 3: you know, take advantage that it's brilliant.

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Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, I mean I've been on record saying

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Speaker 1: I thought Taysom was going to win the job, not

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Speaker 1: because I thought he should, but just because Sean Payton

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Speaker 1: has been just such a man crush on Taysom Hill.

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Speaker 1: But I actually think that within the scheme of this

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Speaker 1: Saints team, I think that they're going to get the

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Speaker 1: best out of Jamis And I don't think you're going

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Speaker 1: to see that same reckless player that you saw on

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, because remember like that scheme, especially when he

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Speaker 1: really you know, went crazy with that big touchdown interception

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Speaker 1: year That was Bruce arians and they're all about taking risk,

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Speaker 1: no risk at no biscuit, you know, go downfield. I

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Speaker 1: mean you even saw Tom Brady, you know, his A

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Speaker 1: dot went way up last year, his interception rate went up.

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Speaker 1: That's just how they play. But New Orleans they figured

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Speaker 1: out a way to kind of make Drew Brees, you know,

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Speaker 1: even as his arm strength was nothing, they'll be the

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Speaker 1: most efficient quarterback of all time. I know that's Drew Brees,

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Speaker 1: but this team has a way to a different way

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Speaker 1: of doing things than that. They can kind of to

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Speaker 1: compared to what in Tampa Bay. There was really that

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Speaker 1: option wasn't there. It was just like yo, go out there,

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Speaker 1: throw the ball downfield, but don't but don't throw pick

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Speaker 1: and he would just throw picks. And so I think

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Speaker 1: we're going to see a good a good year out

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Speaker 1: of Jamis. I don't think we're going to see like

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Speaker 1: a disaster Tampa Bay Jamis this year.

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Speaker 2: That's just that's just a gut call.

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Speaker 1: Though that's not you know, obviously we know the track record,

355
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Speaker 1: but that that's my gut feel here. Let's move on

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Speaker 1: to the Atlanta Falcons. This team is cat trapped. This

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Speaker 1: team is a team that we've seen it in the preseason.

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Speaker 1: They've gotten blown out twice already as we record this.

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Speaker 1: They haven't played their third preseason game yet, but you

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Speaker 1: can really see the depth lacking. And so I would

361
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Speaker 1: worry about this team, you know, if I'm betting a

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Speaker 1: win total over you know, even if they you know,

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Speaker 1: I think Arthur Smith is a pretty good coach. I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, obviously the quarterback is fine and they have

365
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Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts, but I think the defense is going to

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Speaker 1: be a problem. And I really think that they're in

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Speaker 1: a tough spot to withstand any injuries just given their

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Speaker 1: lack of depth. But Sean, how are you feeling about

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Speaker 1: these twenty twenty one Falcons.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they're a tough team right now because, like you said,

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Speaker 3: they're kind of in this purgatory where they're not, you know,

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Speaker 3: a basement team, but they're not a super Bowl contender.

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Speaker 3: And they definitely played a lot better than their four

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Speaker 3: and twelve record last year. If you look at average

375
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Speaker 3: game time with the lead last year, they were one

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Speaker 3: of twelve teams who average over twenty eight plus minutes

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Speaker 3: with a lead last year, and all of their teams

378
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Speaker 3: with an average that high won ten or more games,

379
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Speaker 3: and the Falcons won four. So you know, whether that

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Speaker 3: was bad luck or just bad coaching decisions by Dan Quinn,

381
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Speaker 3: I think their dude to bounce back with Arthur Smith.

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Speaker 3: You know, they had the toughest schedule last season. This

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Speaker 3: year they have the eleventh easiest, So there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of things I think are going in their favor. But yeah,

385
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Speaker 3: it's really hard to see how this team can be,

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Speaker 3: you know, a winning team with the offensive line, with

387
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Speaker 3: the defensive questions. You know, they have Grady Jarrett and

388
00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 3: Deon Jones are great on defense, but not much behind him,

389
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Speaker 3: so there's a lot of question marks there. Despite losing

390
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Speaker 3: Julio Jones, I think this offense could be surprisingly good.

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Speaker 3: You know, they still have cal Ridley who's more than

392
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Speaker 3: capable of being a number one wide receiver. They have

393
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Speaker 3: a generational talent in Kyle Pitts at tight end, so

394
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Speaker 3: you know, and Matt Ryan still probably has a couple

395
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Speaker 3: of good years left in the tank. So they should

396
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Speaker 3: be able to put up enough points to keep them

397
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Speaker 3: in the games. And maybe we'll see this close game

398
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Speaker 3: what kind of swing their way this year. So I'm

399
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Speaker 3: in line with the market. If I had to pick

400
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Speaker 3: a side here, I would just lean over seven and

401
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 3: a half, just base on all the various reasons. But yeah,

402
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,280
Speaker 3: it's a franchise that's going in the run di Russian,

403
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 3: so it's hard to feel safe or confident about the over.

404
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 3: But like I said, I'm a bit bearish on the Saints,

405
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 3: so that's why I think I'm more comfortable taking an

406
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 3: over on a team like the Falcons. But yeah, I

407
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 3: think the line's pretty pretty good.

408
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Speaker 2: Where are you on this Falcon team? Stuff? Yeah, I'm

409
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Speaker 2: pout surprise. I project like seven seven point nine wins,

410
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Speaker 2: so I would lean over not enough to play it.

411
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Speaker 2: But yeah, last year their Patagona wins total seven and

412
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Speaker 2: a half. They won four games. That has to be

413
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Speaker 2: the highest of all time. I don't know.

414
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Speaker 3: Yeah, their history quite differential was basically the same as

415
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Speaker 3: the Browns.

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Speaker 2: Last year. Yeah, the Browns with eleven games, it's a

417
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 2: pretty easy schedule. A lot schedules a lot easier. I mean,

418
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 2: they blew five fourth quarter leads last year. I mean

419
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 2: and collapses, complete collapses in games they should have won.

420
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Speaker 2: I think the coaching change there will help just alleviate

421
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 2: some of those melthdowns. They do have seven home only

422
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Speaker 2: seven home games. They have ten road games if you

423
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Speaker 2: count the UK, so they go to London for a game.

424
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 2: They have the second hot most travel net travel I think,

425
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Speaker 2: only behind the forty nine ers. So that's not ideal,

426
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 2: especially with the early bye week in week six, so

427
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: fatigue and with that depth that does concern me a bit.

428
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Speaker 2: But I think the coaching changes are all going to

429
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 2: be favorable. I think Arthur Smith coming in here with

430
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 2: this offense, some questions on the interior offensive line at

431
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 2: you know, left guard and center. But if they can.

432
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 2: You know, I think the offense is gonna be fine.

433
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 2: They're gonna run. They're gonna run the ball a little

434
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 2: bit more. You know, can Mike Davis hold up and

435
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 2: with the in the wide zone attack, They're gonna run

436
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 2: more play action, more motion, prestat motion. I think all

437
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 2: those things are gonna help. Mo're twelve and thirteen personnel

438
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 2: bringing Kyle Pitts. I think their offense is gonna be fine.

439
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 2: You have Quarterel Patterson is a you know, kind of

440
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 2: a gadget guy, and then Deep Piece on the defensive side.

441
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 2: Deep Piece is anywhere he's gone the first two years.

442
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 2: His scheme is just bumped up the production of a defense.

443
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 2: He's gonna blitz a ton. He's gonna compensate for the

444
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 2: lack of personnel. They don't have elite edge rushers here

445
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 2: well neither to Tennessee. And their first year where pieces

446
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: at Tennessee, their defense played very well, a lot better

447
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 2: than has the last couple of years. So you know,

448
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 2: what can he do with you know, really they're starting

449
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 2: over at safety, Harmon really does fit his schemes. Run

450
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:47,720
Speaker 2: a lot of three safeties. Someone has a step up

451
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,879
Speaker 2: a corner, you know, you bring in Moreau, you got Sheffield,

452
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 2: Oliver Terrell. I mean someone's got to step up at

453
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 2: corner for this team to get stops. Uh. Maybe a

454
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 2: way to go with Atlanta is plus two hundred plus

455
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 2: two to ten to make the playoff as a lock

456
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 2: art team. It's a pretty top heavy NFC, you know,

457
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,360
Speaker 2: and if the Saints, we're kind of lower on the Saints.

458
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 2: You look at the NFC South, I mean we just

459
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 2: basically think it's the Packers. The winner of the NFC

460
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,679
Speaker 2: East gets in. I mean, how many teams can make

461
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: it from the NFC West. So if Atlanta gets to eight,

462
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 2: you know, wins, nine wins and things work out with

463
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 2: the defensive scheme, you know, and the offense I think

464
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 2: will be fine. Maybe the way that goes them to

465
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 2: make the playoffs. If not, I think it's a pass

466
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 2: looks about right from a win total perspective.

467
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would definitely like look for something. It's another

468
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 1: team I would play to the extremes. I lean under

469
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 1: on this team, so you know, I would feel more

470
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 1: comfortable going under the wind total at the plus you know,

471
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 1: it's plus one twenty five Jews. But if you're bullish

472
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 1: on them. I still don't think you bet this team

473
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: to get eight wins just because of the debt issues,

474
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 1: and it could go wrong really fast, and if it

475
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 1: goes wrong, it's gonna look really bad, you know, even

476
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: though there are some some good pieces here. So I

477
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: think you just kind of want to get a little

478
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: more well compensated if you're betting on this team's upside

479
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 1: than just kind of sneaking over a Drew stuff win

480
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 1: total to get to eight wins. So that that's how

481
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 1: I would approach it. But I am again I'm pretty

482
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: barish on them, just because I think I just don't

483
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 1: think this team can make it through a full season.

484
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 1: And I am a little higher on the Saints than most.

485
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: I just I think the Saints could still still conceive

486
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 1: what we sleep the Falcons, you know, even with the

487
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 1: Saints losing what they did. So not really touching the

488
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 1: Falcons from from an over perspective. But let's talk about

489
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 1: the Panthers because this is interesting to me. I feel

490
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: like every year there's there's usually one, two, maybe three

491
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: teams that try to sell their fan bases on some

492
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 1: reclamation trash quarterback project, and like it almost always fails.

493
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: The Broncos have been by, you know, doing this a

494
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 1: lot over the years, you know, and now Sam Donald

495
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 1: goes to Carolina and all of a sudden like, oh,

496
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 1: this is gonna be great for Sam Donald, Like he's

497
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 1: now he's all of a sudden like this respectable starting quarterback.

498
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 1: I'm not buying it. Sam Donald is bottom, you know,

499
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 1: bottom of tier and every pretty much every conceivable quarterback metric,

500
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: whether you compare him to other starters over his tenure,

501
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 1: whether you compare him to his draft class. I just

502
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: don't think that you give yourself much of an edge

503
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: with a quarterback with a you know, a guy who's

504
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: at best a ceiling that is what maybe the sixteenth,

505
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 1: fifteenth best quarterback in the week. I'm talking about it,

506
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 1: a straight up ceiling. But you know, maybe I'm too bearish.

507
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 2: You know.

508
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 1: Some a lot of people tend to like the Panthers.

509
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 1: So Stuggy, talk to me about this Panther team, because

510
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 1: I'm not buying it, just like it's just Teddy Bridgewater

511
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 1: all over again. What do you go like four and

512
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 1: eleven is the starter last year? Like, I'm just not

513
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 1: buying it.

514
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, It's it's an interesting team because there's it's basically

515
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 2: polar opposite arguments. It's basically what you think was to

516
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 2: blame for stam Darnold, who has declined every year. But

517
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 2: do you say that it was all Adam Gase or

518
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 2: and you know, the lack of offensive line, the lack

519
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 2: of weapons, or was it a mix of both. You know,

520
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 2: there's some people that just say it was all out

521
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,640
Speaker 2: of gase Ian. You don't remember Gas also had Tannehill

522
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 2: who was just nothing, and he left Gates and then became,

523
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,880
Speaker 2: you know, a top tier quarterback. I tend to think

524
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 2: that Donald is not a great quarterback from everything that

525
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: I've seen, but who knows, he was just might have

526
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 2: just been in a bad situation and this is what

527
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: he needed. I'm a big fan of Rule. I like

528
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 2: Joe Brady, but again, he's not gonna have a great

529
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 2: offensive line here, which isn't gonna help. So I'm in

530
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: the camp that it's not just plug in Darnald and

531
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 2: you that change the scenery and everything's gonna be fine.

532
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 2: So I'm lower on Carolina than others. I like some

533
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 2: of the things they did on defense, a defense that

534
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 2: you know, they gave a ton of snaps to rookies

535
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 2: last year, so I expect some improvement. There's more depth

536
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 2: on the defensive end and in tier the defensive line.

537
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: They got to really rely on JC Horn. I think

538
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 2: you're gonna need him. Look, I never trust rookie corners,

539
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: so I mean, look, it didn't really work out for

540
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 2: Okuda last year, who went in the top three, and

541
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 2: they just don't have a great track record, and they're

542
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 2: going to really need him to step up to pair

543
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: with Dante Jackson because the corner options aren't great for

544
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: Phil Snow, who runs a lot of dime, doesn't Blitz

545
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 2: does run a lot of zone. So it's not going

546
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,719
Speaker 2: to be you know, in a Kuda go out here

547
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 2: and play a ton of man and man. I'll put

548
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 2: this guys who might be a little easier. I will

549
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 2: say they must start fast. They they're final five, they

550
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 2: play Atlanta at home, but then they're at Buffalo home

551
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 2: against the Bucks, at the Saints and then at the Bucks.

552
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 2: So I mean that's brutal if you're not close to

553
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 2: the wind total or I mean, they better do some

554
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 2: damage early on, and you know it's gonna be donald

555
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 2: into a new system. Do they kind of struggle early on?

556
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 2: And if they do the end of this schedule is

557
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 2: is brutal overall, have the schedule about league average. But

558
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 2: it's whether or not you think if you think Donald

559
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 2: is potentially a top tier quarterback, he just needed to

560
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 2: get out from under gas and away from the Jets,

561
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 2: then you're gonna love Carolina this year. If you don't

562
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: think that Donald is a great quarterback, you're probably gonna

563
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 2: be lower on them. And if you think it's he's

564
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: just gonna be Teddy Bridgewater, h and they're probably gonna

565
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 2: be what they were last year. The Dagger wins last

566
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 2: I had the underlast year, I got a bit lucky.

567
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 2: They should have won about six six and a half games.

568
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 2: You know, if he's just a Teddy Bridgewater again, they're

569
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 2: gonna probably win, you know, seven ish games this year.

570
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 2: So I'm in the camp that Donald is probably worse

571
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 2: and it's just just getting a change of scenery is

572
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: not gonna be the be all I noticed fix all

573
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 2: his problems.

574
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, I think, you know

575
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: is it's like they tried to sell us Bridgewater last

576
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 1: year and then and look what happened. Like you look

577
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 1: up and you know he's four and eleven. Yet maybe

578
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: they should have won five to six, you know, six games.

579
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 1: But I'm Sean, where are you on this? On this

580
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: Panther team is you know, they have some sexy guys

581
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 1: in fantasy obviously McCaffrey and and Moore and Robbie Anderson

582
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 1: who we we always love to talk about. But you know,

583
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 1: what do you what are your thoughts on on Sam

584
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: Darnold as a potential franchise quarterback.

585
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly, this this win total comes down to him.

586
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 3: There's really no evidence to suggest that he's anything but

587
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 3: bottom five starting quarterback. You know, if if you think

588
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 3: we're going to see another post Adam Gase breakout like

589
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 3: we saw if Ryan Tannehill, sure, then bet on the over.

590
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 3: I just don't see it happening. This offensive line should

591
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 3: be one of the worst in the league, and we

592
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 3: know he struggled under pressure, so I don't think the

593
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 3: situation is going to be better than it was last year.

594
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 3: Even though, like you mentioned this, this offense is a

595
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 3: little bit of talent. You know, Christian McCaffrey's arguably the

596
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 3: best running back in the league. DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson

597
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 3: are top receivers. They lost Curtis Samuel, but I do like, uh,

598
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 3: you know, rookie Terrence Marshall. I think he's going to

599
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: be special in this league. So they have a lot

600
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 3: of pieces. But it can only work if Sam Donald,

601
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 3: you know, improves, and I just don't see that. To

602
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 3: Stucky's point, the end of season schedule is brutal, but

603
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 3: I think it helps they play Tampa Bay week eighteen,

604
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 3: because if the Bucks are sixteen and one and they're

605
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 3: resting all their starters, they could sneak in, you know,

606
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,479
Speaker 3: if an eighth win there. But I'm not betting on

607
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 3: that by any means. So I am on the under here.

608
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 3: I do like, I think seven and a half is

609
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 3: a bit too high, especially with minus one ten on

610
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 3: the under.

611
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 2: Give me the under here.

612
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know, you look at you know, Sam Donald,

613
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 1: and if you say it comes down to Sam Donald, well,

614
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: it's never just on the quarterback. When it's a quarterback

615
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 1: like this, you know they need everything to go well.

616
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, the Panthers are ranked bottom

617
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: three in offensive line by Pro Football Focus, So you

618
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: could have an improvement out of Sam Donald and it

619
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: may not mean much if the offensive line is still bad.

620
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: You know, the Panthers have specialized in Christian McCaffrey even

621
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: when he was healthy. I mean, this was a losing

622
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: team for most of the tenure. I think they made

623
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 1: the playoffs early, but I just don't see it for

624
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 1: this team with Sam Darnold that quarterback. I you know,

625
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 1: it's really you're like, if you like what happened with Tannehill.

626
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: I think that's more of a reason about the Falcons then,

627
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 1: because that's where Arthur Smith is, That's who really helped Tannehill.

628
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 1: It wasn't just Adam Gaze rooting these guys like you

629
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: also need somebody to fix them. And remember, you know

630
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater, he spent time with Joe Brady and New

631
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: Orleans and then he comes to Carolina and they couldn't replicate,

632
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: you know, what they did there. I also, this is

633
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 1: one of those franchises that I just have questions about

634
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,959
Speaker 1: because you know, Bridgewater was a guy who's vocal about

635
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: we didn't practice situational football ast year enough, we didn't

636
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 1: practice red zone enough, things like that. Like when I

637
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: hear things like that, it just it kind of sets

638
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: off a red flag, you know, not to say they

639
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: haven't corrected it. This off season by all accounts they have,

640
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: but it just makes me wonder what else, what other

641
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: decisions that are suboptimal might they be making behind closed

642
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: doors that I might not get wind of until later

643
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: on when somebody you know, outsit after the season or

644
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 1: something like that. So I just not really an organ

645
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: organization I can trust, and I just don't trust an

646
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: organization that tries to sell Sam Donald as a franchise

647
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: quarterback point blank period. So that this is an under

648
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 1: for me. Let's move on, because I don't want to

649
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: make it seem like I you know, I don't want

650
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: to trash the Panthers straight up, because you know, it's

651
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,479
Speaker 1: still they still have some pieces, right, they have some pieces.

652
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: I don't want to straight disrespect them. But I mean

653
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: we say, you know, Denver try to do it with

654
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: case Keenum and you know Bridge ordering car Like every

655
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: year you see these veterans, Alex Smith in Washington a

656
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: few years ago. I mean, it just it almost never

657
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: works out. You know, these guys are available for reasons.

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Speaker 4: to the show.

689
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 1: Let's go to NFC West, which is a just a

690
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: top not even I shouldn't even say top heavy, even

691
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 1: though three teams have double digit win totals. It's just

692
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: a really good, perhaps the best division in football. Uh

693
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: so uh Sean, I'll start with you on the Seahawks.

694
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 1: Ten and a half is the win total juice Tour

695
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 1: the under at minus one forty five. I believe this

696
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 1: was at nine and a half earlier, and I loved

697
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 1: it there because the Seahawks have won double digit games

698
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: in all but one of Russell Wilson's seasons. Now, people

699
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 1: kind of caught on it's a little bit inflated. What

700
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: do you think of the Seattle team that's supposedly going

701
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 1: to up the tempo on offense this year.

702
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it is a bit inflated now. But

703
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 3: like you said, you know, Russell Wilson gives his team

704
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 3: such a high floor. He really did look like an

705
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 3: MVP in the first half of last season.

706
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 2: They started five and zero.

707
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 3: The offense is cooking, and then you know, Pete Carroll

708
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 3: went back to his conservative ways. You know, that was

709
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 3: when the defense started to play a lot better. But

710
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 3: I think, you know, offensive Cornat or Shane Waldron I

711
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 3: think should help. It's gonna be a much faster tempo

712
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 3: kind of offense where they can be balanced, but have

713
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 3: enough plays where you're gonna get Wilson to throw the

714
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 3: ball quite a bit. You know, there are reasons why

715
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 3: they could take a step back. They were seven to

716
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 3: three and one score games last year, which always seems

717
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 3: to think every year that I was going to say,

718
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 3: which always seems to be the case with Russell Wilson.

719
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 3: That's something that could be sticky. They ranked third in

720
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 3: Special Teams DBA. There's a special teams mentioned, but at

721
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 3: the end of the day. I think Pete Carroll he's

722
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 3: a great players coach, but his conservative endgame play calling

723
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 3: I think does hurt the team. Over the past two seasons,

724
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 3: Seattle's ranked dead last and fourth down aggressiveness, which should

725
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 3: not be the case when you have a quarterback like

726
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson. So I think, you know, if they don't

727
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 3: fix that, I think it caps this team ceiling. So

728
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 3: I'm projecting them closer a ten and sevent team.

729
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 2: I agree. I think the ten and a half win

730
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 2: total may.

731
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 3: Be a bit too high, but you know, with Russell

732
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 3: Wilson under center, if they do figure it out on

733
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 3: offense and you know, let him cook all season, this

734
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 3: team should be really good. So I'm probably staying away.

735
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I loved it at nine and a

736
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 1: half because I think they're like, again, the floor is

737
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 1: so high at ten and a half. I don't want

738
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: to say I hate it, but I kind of hate

739
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: it because and you know, it's that there's not much

740
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 1: of an edge here. You know, we were talking about

741
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 1: tiny edges, and when you jump up a win in

742
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 1: a division this good, I think that really should raise

743
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: the red flag. So, you know, props to all the

744
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 1: you know, props to bet MGM and all the books

745
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 1: who adjusted that Seattle win total up to where it

746
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 1: should be, because now you know, I don't feel good

747
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 1: about betting on it at all.

748
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 3: Exactly, And I would say, if anything, bet on exactly

749
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 3: ten wins at six to one odds, like, it just

750
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,879
Speaker 3: feels like they're destined to be a ten and seven team.

751
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 3: So BETMGM has exactly exactly ten wins at six to one.

752
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 3: If anything, I'd probably bet that.

753
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: Yes stuck. What do you think? What do you think

754
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 1: about the Seahawks this year? You're usually a little lower

755
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 1: on them for pointing out those same kind of reasons

756
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 1: that Sean mentioned, you know, the one score walk and

757
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 1: things like that.

758
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 2: I love the Seahawks. I love faith every one of

759
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 2: their every one of their games is decided by three points.

760
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,919
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if they're favored by thirty or one.

761
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 2: That'll be decided in the last thirty seconds and they'll

762
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 2: come out on top more times than not. But I

763
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 2: just this, this franchise is just on a bad path.

764
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 2: I mean, there are so much money is tied up

765
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 2: into like a few players that it's just it's really

766
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 2: hurt the rest of the team. I mean the offensive line. Yeah,

767
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: you signed Gabe Jackson, it's still and Dwayne Brown. I mean,

768
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 2: is Dayne Brown signed yet? I mean he's still holding

769
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 2: out right. So the offensive line, how much better is

770
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 2: it going to be? It'll be a little better. The

771
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 2: offense is gonna score, It's fine, I mean how much better?

772
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 2: Like you know, I don't think it's a well constructive

773
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 2: team because if you know, look with Russell Wilson rookie contract,

774
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 2: you could do a lot of things. Yeah, so you

775
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 2: have to pay them, and that really hurt the defensive

776
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 2: offensive line, but their play calling is hurt as well.

777
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 2: So how much can Waldron help? I mean, here's a

778
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 2: quote from Tyler Lockett and said, you know, Drew, they

779
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 2: just signed it for eighty million.

780
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 5: Well, I mean it looks a lot like what we're

781
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 5: doing two minute from the past six years that I've

782
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,479
Speaker 5: been here. But now it's more efficient in which there's

783
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 5: a whole bunch of plays that Ruskin choose from, to

784
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 5: where it's not just fifteen plays like we used to

785
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 5: have or whatever. Now you might have forty fifty plays

786
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 5: that he could choose from. So you really have to

787
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 5: be able to understand the offense and know every single

788
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 5: play and understand signals and understand like the terminology and

789
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 5: all that type of stuff, because it just goes beyond. Hey,

790
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,879
Speaker 5: I just need to know two minute offense and that's it.

791
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:20,720
Speaker 5: You got to know the whole entire offense.

792
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 2: It's not just the fifteen that we used to have.

793
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,760
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a direct shot at Schottenheimer.

794
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 1: And Carrol and Carol because really just not to country out,

795
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 1: I just want to say, like I learned that, you know,

796
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 1: we take a lot of shots at the Seattle offensive coordinators,

797
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: whether it's you know, Bevil shot Athheimer. But the more

798
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 1: you kind of go behind the scenes, you realize that

799
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 1: this is all Carol kind of overseeing this and you know,

800
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 1: even you know, Schottenheimer left. They cited like, you know,

801
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 1: different philosophical differences. Shottenheimer was willing to open it up.

802
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 1: It's Carol was the guy that like, now we need

803
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 1: to go back to like more runs and shit. So

804
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 1: I just wanted to point that out.

805
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 2: Yep, So we'll see. Is there going to be a

806
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 2: learning curve here? Maybe, but then the ceiling is maybe

807
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 2: a lot higher. So that's something to keep in mind.

808
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 2: It's interesting that They're in such a tough division that

809
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 2: I have them with the sixth or seventh easiest schedule.

810
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 2: H they do have a pretty favorable schedule. I do

811
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 2: have major questions about the defense though. I mean, they

812
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 2: just they don't have anyone who can really get pressure,

813
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 2: and that's a big problem. And then you know, at linebacker,

814
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 2: Bobby Wagner is still really good, but he's gonna he's

815
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: gonna drop off eventually. Then their biggest problem is that corner.

816
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 2: You're gonna maybe DJ Reid who has flashed, Trey Flowers,

817
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 2: Damarius Randall. I mean, the cornerback situation is not great,

818
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 2: which is just really tough when you're not getting a

819
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 2: lot of pressure. So you know, one would help the other.

820
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 2: You know, I gotta hope Carlos Dunlap has a really

821
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 2: big year, but they're not getting a lot of pressu

822
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 2: in your corners aren't great. That's you know, you're not

823
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 2: a fan of of Witherspoon now, I mean I think

824
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 2: Witherspoon's like a serviceable you know, maybe third corner, but

825
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 2: it's just they don't have anyone that can shut anyone down.

826
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 2: And it's just a bunch of guys that they're trying

827
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: to They think, is it gonna be Randall? Is it

828
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 2: gonna be Dj Reid? Is it like Trey Brown just

829
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: got hurt. They were saying he was gonna start, So

830
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 2: they don't really know who's gonna step up. So they

831
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 2: have a bunch of options, but know one that you're

832
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 2: really in love with. Yeah. I project their wind total

833
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,919
Speaker 2: nine point seven, but it's so a ten and a half.

834
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:17,399
Speaker 2: I didn't even know it was half. I hadn't even

835
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 2: seen that. I thought that was with juice. It was

836
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 2: right around nine to eight, so I thought I was

837
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: fair at nine seven. I would lean under a ten

838
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,479
Speaker 2: and ten and a half if it's you know, close

839
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 2: to you the money, But I don't care. I don't

840
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 2: want to bet the window. I'd rather bet. I'm on

841
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 2: a week to week basis, curious to see what happens

842
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: with their offensive coordinator because I know that all their

843
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 2: games are gonna come out of the wire. So it's

844
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 2: a really easy team for me to bet. Maybe a

845
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,919
Speaker 2: little change this year, but it's a team that could

846
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,919
Speaker 2: come back from any deficit. It's a team that once

847
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 2: they get a lead, they can let anyone back in

848
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,280
Speaker 2: because they don't have corners, they don't get a passers

849
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: and they start to play really conservative. There's a reason

850
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 2: for there are in a lot of close games. They're

851
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of shootouts. I expect. Once again,

852
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 2: we'll see how much Waldron can do. I mean it

853
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 2: sounds promising, but I mean a lot of times new

854
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator and I always do sound promising. There's only

855
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 2: one way you can get with the play calling, and

856
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,760
Speaker 2: that's better. But it's a pass for me. Seattle's purely

857
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 2: a week to week bet for me.

858
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no value here. It's given this division and

859
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: Carol's still there. I mean, Russell, the reason they're always

860
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 1: winning these and getting into these post games is because,

861
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, Carol wants to get conservative. I think

862
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:22,800
Speaker 1: he hampers his play callers, and it's hard to argue

863
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: because he has a track record of success. And so

864
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 1: it's one of those tough situations where it's like, you know,

865
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 1: they keep doing what they're doing and they keep getting

866
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: bailed out, but they're just you know, now, with the

867
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:38,919
Speaker 1: win total going over double digits, I would stay away.

868
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 1: I think the time to get it was when it

869
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 1: was still at nine and a half. Then you had

870
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 1: some value that then you could take advantage of that

871
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 1: high floor. Now you're just in a it's just a

872
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 1: tough division. We have the Rams. They are at ten

873
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: and a half as well with the underjuice to minus

874
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: one fifty, so treating it more like a ten win team,

875
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 1: but yet another quality football team in this NFC West stuck.

876
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: What do you think of the the Rams with Matthew

877
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:12,759
Speaker 1: Stafford taking over for Jared Goff, because that's going to

878
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 1: give Sean McVay a lot of options and the defense

879
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 1: should still be pretty sour.

880
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, another thing to keep in mind, by the way,

881
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 2: speaking of Sean mcface, he he when he faces Seattle,

882
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 2: he knows how to attack him. That defense, Pete Carroll's

883
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 2: is stuck in his way, in his ways. Yeah, cover three.

884
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 2: By the way, it helped to have a legion of

885
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 2: boom when you have when you're running your cover three.

886
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 2: But there was Pete Carroll Tree defenses all over and

887
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: teams have learned how to attack it. They're starting to

888
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: play some other schemes. But that's another reason why Seattle

889
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 2: just they're not I don't really think that they're evolving

890
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 2: with the rest of the league. Uh Los Angeles. Look,

891
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 2: they went from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford's a huge upgrade.

892
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 2: I think that the offense is going to be really good.

893
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 2: I think. I mean, the problem is their running backs

894
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: keep getting hurt, so that's something they keep in mind.

895
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 1: But they got Tony, they just got they just got

896
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 1: Sony Michelle, and they just signed.

897
00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 2: With Sony Michelle. I don't know if that's allow, but

898
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 2: you guys can tell me that. From a fantasy perspective,

899
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 2: I thought they were gonna up signing Todd Gurley again

900
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:11,399
Speaker 2: after all, that would that would have been worrisome. But yeah,

901
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 2: I mean think I think the offense is gonna be good.

902
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 2: That the interior offensive line still have some questions about.

903
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 2: But I think the offensive line will be okay, and

904
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 2: Stafford finally gets you know, a complete team, he gets

905
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 2: a defense. The defense will take a step back. Uh.

906
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 2: You know, they did lose some key pieces in the secondary.

907
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,280
Speaker 2: You know, you lose Brockers, who I think was pretty

908
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 2: important to that defense. But you still have Aaron Donald,

909
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 2: you still have Jalen Ramsey. You know you're gonna have

910
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 2: a new defensive coordinator. Still think it's going to be

911
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 2: a good defense. It's not gonna be an elite you know,

912
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,919
Speaker 2: number one in the league still maybe you know, top

913
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 2: five ceiling, you know, because you have two of the

914
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 2: best defenders in the NFL. But you lost some talent

915
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 2: you'll have to replace, you know, so the defense will

916
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:55,439
Speaker 2: be good. Stafford finally has a defense, He finally has

917
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 2: you know, competent special teams like these are things that

918
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 2: he didn't have for ever in Detroit. I mean, always

919
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 2: have the worst defenses, the worst special teams. So I'm

920
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:10,720
Speaker 2: I'm high on the Rams. I have them projected for

921
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 2: ten point two wins their win total.

922
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 1: You know, that's still kind of right line with it

923
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:18,760
Speaker 1: given the juice ten point one.

924
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, they have a fairly nineteenth hardest schedule,

925
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 2: so even in that division, it's not a not a

926
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 2: terrible schedule. I love the upside of the Rams. If

927
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 2: it all clicks with Stafford to go with that defense,

928
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 2: this is a team that could win the Super Bowl.

929
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:39,720
Speaker 2: I'm excited to watch what Stafford and McVeigh can do together.

930
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 2: Defense will take a step back, offense will take a

931
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,959
Speaker 2: step forward, but probably be you know, a similar team

932
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 2: to what we saw last year. But the ceiling will

933
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 2: be higher because they have a quarterback that can go

934
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 2: win games in the playoffs.

935
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's one of those situations that I think probably

936
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 1: better to take some upside sunder Rams because it's one

937
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: of those things where because the floor is so high,

938
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 1: it makes the ceiling high. Because Sean McVay in his

939
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 1: four seasons as the Rams head coach eleven and five,

940
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,399
Speaker 1: thirteen and three, then he missed the playoffs but still

941
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 1: went nine and seven and then ten and six, So

942
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 1: never had a losing record, double digit wins in the

943
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 1: sixteen game schedule in three of the four years. That's

944
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:27,879
Speaker 1: with goff, that's with the declining gally for some of it.

945
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 1: There's a good ceiling here, Sean. How you feeling about

946
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 1: these Los Angeles Rams heading into this year.

947
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think Matthew Stafford's going to make this

948
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 3: offense much better. You know, mcveigy is going to be

949
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 3: more comfortable throwing the ball downfield. We saw that with

950
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:48,879
Speaker 3: them adding to Shawn Jackson, drafting to two at well,

951
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 3: so I think it's going to help expand this offense.

952
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 3: You know, the defense could take a step back. They

953
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:58,359
Speaker 3: lost Brandon Staley, but they added Raheem Morris who ray,

954
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 3: But I think you pointed out back in twenty nineteen

955
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 3: he was kind of the secret guy behind their comeback

956
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 3: towards the end of the season, so he should still

957
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 3: be fine. They had the second best injury luck last year,

958
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 3: unlike the Buccaneers. I think they're a team that could

959
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 3: struggle if they start to have to test their depth.

960
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 3: We're already starting to see it with cam Akers going down.

961
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 3: Darryl Henderson's now hurt, so they had to add Sony Michelle,

962
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,399
Speaker 3: So especially on that defensive side of the ball, if

963
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 3: either Jalen Ramsey or Aaron dald were in a miss time,

964
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,719
Speaker 3: you know that's going to be a huge blow to

965
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 3: this team. So if anything, I'd lean towards the under

966
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 3: ten and a half, but the minus one fifty juice

967
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 3: is too much to actually make the bet. But if

968
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,319
Speaker 3: I had to bet either way, here would be the under.

969
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: And it's just no margin for error with these With

970
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 1: these bets, when all these teams are right at like

971
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 1: ten ten and a half in a good division where

972
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:53,240
Speaker 1: we kind of understand their upside, I think with the Rams,

973
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 1: you're probably taking a shot at you know, the division

974
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 1: straight up. Maybe you take a shot at you know,

975
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 1: the super Bowl or the conference. If you really like

976
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 1: the Rams, you know, Tom Brady still does lose about

977
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the time in terms of the conference,

978
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 1: so maybe there's perhaps a chance for another team to advance.

979
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm not touching that over for the Rams,

980
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: even though I love him. I think I'd go Division.

981
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 1: I'd go Conference. I just you know it's gonna be

982
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 1: you could see you could see like three teams finished

983
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 1: ten and seven in this division and we haven't even

984
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 1: gotten to the Cardinals yet. But let's talk about the Niners.

985
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 1: Talk about a super Bowl hangover. They struggled with injury luck,

986
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: the schedule got tough for last year, and it was

987
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 1: a disappointing season. Now still have some question marks because

988
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 1: will Trey Lance actually be the starting quarterback? Is he

989
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 1: going to be more like a package guy like the

990
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,919
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson for much of the year, like Lamar wasn't

991
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:01,280
Speaker 1: his first year. Well, the defense rebound, I mean, Sean,

992
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 1: we saw the Niners the other day, we saw the

993
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 1: first team. They went on what it was like a

994
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 1: fifteen play drive on offense ended with a pick. But

995
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:12,880
Speaker 1: I mean this team, there are another moments. I'm upside here,

996
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:14,719
Speaker 1: But how are you attacking them from a win to

997
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 1: to perspective with the total at ten and a half

998
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 1: a bt MGM. Yeah, actually I do like.

999
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 2: The over here.

1000
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 3: I think there's reasons to be bullish on the Niners

1001
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 3: this year. You know, they had the worst injury lock

1002
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,720
Speaker 3: last year by far, they had the third toughest schedule,

1003
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 3: and now they have the fifth easiest, and so you

1004
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:32,799
Speaker 3: know that goes in their favor. You know, all eyes

1005
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 3: are on the Trey Lance Jimmy G situation. But this

1006
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 3: isn't like Chicago, where I think it's a slam dunk

1007
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 3: that Fields is the better quarterback. You know, Jimmy G's

1008
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 3: still a quality starting quarterback, so they can take their

1009
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,800
Speaker 3: time with Trey Lance. I think they won't start him until,

1010
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 3: you know, they think he will be more favored to

1011
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 3: win games. So I think this is a team with

1012
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 3: a very high floor and high ceiling. Now, where's in

1013
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 3: the past. If Jimmy G went down, which he's every year,

1014
00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 3: he kind of missed some time, they had Nick Mullens

1015
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 3: behind him, and it's kind of a miracle that they

1016
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 3: were able to be competitive with him under center. If

1017
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 3: you've watched some of these Eagles preseason games and nickname

1018
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 3: he's terribly He looks like the worst quarterback I've ever seen.

1019
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 1: So yeah, right, he's right. He's right behind Joe Flacco.

1020
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:17,839
Speaker 1: So it can get out of at can't make it.

1021
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, it just does a show that, you know, Kyl

1022
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 3: Shahan deserves some credit for making him look like a

1023
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 3: competent starter.

1024
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 2: So this is a team I do like.

1025
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 3: I think that all the things that I pointed out

1026
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 3: that the luck's gonna turn their way this year. So

1027
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 3: with the Jimmy g and Trey Lance combo, it gives

1028
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 3: them a high flour ceiling. I love the over ten

1029
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:37,359
Speaker 3: and a half at plus one fifteen this year.

1030
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:38,279
Speaker 1: What about you?

1031
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually have believe it or not. I have

1032
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers with the easiest schedule in the

1033
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:45,800
Speaker 2: NFL this year, which is crazy with you know, considering

1034
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 2: the division they're in. Yeah, I mean, look, this defense

1035
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 2: it actually graded out well, which is shocking considering how

1036
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,800
Speaker 2: many injuries that to deal with. That's only going to

1037
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 2: pay off this year with their depth, I mean the

1038
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 2: depth is still a little concerning at corner, but everywhere else,

1039
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 2: I mean, they should be set on the defensive side

1040
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,760
Speaker 2: of the ball. On offense, look, you have four former

1041
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:09,240
Speaker 2: first rounds on the offensive line. I love their weapons

1042
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 2: on the outside. Their backfield is loaded. I mean yeah,

1043
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:13,719
Speaker 2: I just run out of We would run out of

1044
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 2: time to list all the potential backs that can get

1045
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,440
Speaker 2: run in Shanahan's offense. And now you know when you

1046
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 2: have Trey Lets. I think he's eventually going to be

1047
00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 2: the starter. I think he's a perfect fit for what

1048
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 2: Shanahan wants to do. But you know, if it doesn't

1049
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 2: work or it takes longer, you have Jimmy g who

1050
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 2: limits your ceiling. But he can win games. I mean

1051
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 2: he can win a bunch of games. With the forty

1052
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:38,440
Speaker 2: nine Ers, I have them projected to be favored in

1053
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 2: all but two games, and actually I should say all

1054
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 2: but three. At Arizona I basically have as I have

1055
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 2: them slightly favored, but it's basically a pick. At Seattle,

1056
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 2: I have close to a pick, but I have Seattle

1057
00:50:55,680 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 2: favored slightly and then season finale at the Rams, and

1058
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 2: that game could turn into a forty nine Ers home game,

1059
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 2: you know, So that's it. I have them favored every

1060
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 2: other game. It's a really easy schedule. I think that

1061
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 2: this is a team that I like the over as well.

1062
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 2: I haven't projected at ten point. What what is their

1063
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:15,839
Speaker 2: win total sitting at right now?

1064
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 1: It's ten and a half with the juice to the

1065
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 1: under at minus one forty, So it's another one that's

1066
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 1: closer to kind of in that ten to ten and

1067
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 1: a half dead dead zone.

1068
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,920
Speaker 2: I project around ten and a half. How I played

1069
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 2: how I played the side laid minus two hundred that

1070
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:36,879
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers would make the playoffs, Like, I'm

1071
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 2: very confident that they're going to get the ten wins

1072
00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 2: at least. It's a very weak NFC. I mean, you

1073
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 2: could potentially have every team in this division make the playoffs,

1074
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 2: you know, if you just say, look, the Bucks run

1075
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 2: away with their division, the Cowboys run away with their division,

1076
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 2: the Packers, and then there's not a lot of spots left.

1077
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 2: There's a lot of teams that have a lot of questions.

1078
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: The forty nine Ers aren't one of them. Injury luck

1079
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 2: should break their way. Depth is better. They have now

1080
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 2: two quarterbacks, so even with a quarterback injury, you feel

1081
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:06,800
Speaker 2: a lot better than you do for a lot of teams.

1082
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,879
Speaker 2: So that's I think is is really beneficial as well.

1083
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 2: So it's not like, you know, Brady goes down, it's

1084
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 2: who is it Gabert playing Gabbert's all of a sudden

1085
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 2: your quarterback, and the drop off is massive. If Jimmy

1086
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:21,319
Speaker 2: G goes down or Trey Lance goes down, there's not

1087
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:24,800
Speaker 2: much of a drop off here from a power ratings perspective.

1088
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:27,360
Speaker 2: So I love that as well. So the floor is

1089
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:30,439
Speaker 2: really high, especially with two quarterbacks that you would feel

1090
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 2: comfortable with. So I laid since I don't you a

1091
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:34,960
Speaker 2: ton of value in the number over, I would lean over,

1092
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 2: but I just lay two hundred thres. I'll make the playoffs.

1093
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 1: You know what I think we're gonna well, I'm looking

1094
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 1: forward to and I think we may figure out just

1095
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 1: how real San Francisco is, especially on the defensive side,

1096
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 1: because I think that's really what they need to give back.

1097
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: So I think that offense is going to be straight

1098
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:51,399
Speaker 1: if it's healthy. I mean, they were missing Kiddo last year.

1099
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 1: Samuel missed the start of the year, Jimmy G obviously

1100
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 1: went down. Jimmy just twenty two and eight in the

1101
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,239
Speaker 1: regular season as a starter with the Niners. He'll be

1102
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,720
Speaker 1: fine even if they need to start them all seventeen games,

1103
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 1: and and then that just opens up the offense even

1104
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:07,120
Speaker 1: more because you got Trey Lance coming in in sub packages.

1105
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 1: You still got Juice Check one of the best blocking

1106
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 1: you know assets even though he gets a lot of money,

1107
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 1: some people don't like it, but it's still an asset

1108
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 1: for this team. But on defense, they played Green Bay

1109
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 1: at home in Week three, men Rawley Aaron Rodgers couldn't

1110
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: figure him out. They just punched him in the mouth

1111
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:28,239
Speaker 1: in the regular season and two years ago, and then

1112
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 1: they all the time to prepare, all the talk about it,

1113
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 1: and they did the exact same thing in the postseason.

1114
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,879
Speaker 1: You know, Robert Sally's gone, so that's the one thing

1115
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 1: you say. Okay, Debiko Ryans is the coordinator now, but

1116
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 1: the talent is still there, you know, if they can

1117
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 1: handle or Stemy Rodgers, who's been playing out of his

1118
00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 1: mind pretty much outside of that six ever since that

1119
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:52,359
Speaker 1: San Francisco defeat, you know, that's when I think we'll know, like, oh, yeah,

1120
00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 1: this team has that same kind of upside that they had,

1121
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,279
Speaker 1: because yeah, I really like San Francisco too. If I

1122
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 1: had to pick one of the three double win told

1123
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 1: us from this division for an over, I would go

1124
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:06,319
Speaker 1: San Francisco at this point just because I think the

1125
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 1: value has been out of Seattle. I think the Rams

1126
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 1: there's still a little bit more question marks, maybe some injuries.

1127
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 1: I think San Francisco just the schedule, the talent, the

1128
00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:15,879
Speaker 1: coaching prime for a bounce back.

1129
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:19,720
Speaker 2: So shouldn't like them as well. You mentioned Robert Style.

1130
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:21,759
Speaker 2: He look. I think the forty nine ers finished in

1131
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:23,919
Speaker 2: the top five an efficiency on defense, the top top

1132
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 2: ten at least, and they have their whole defense was

1133
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:29,319
Speaker 2: out for all year. Secondary was I mean, it was

1134
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:32,080
Speaker 2: a job well done. Compare him to what Pete Carroll.

1135
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 2: Robert Style is a Pete Carroll tree guy right cover three.

1136
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 2: He his the first couple of years in staffredd it

1137
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 2: didn't work. He evolved, he ran, he started to run

1138
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 2: more cover two, more traditional cover two on the back,

1139
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:48,840
Speaker 2: not just cover three all the time. And it worked.

1140
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,839
Speaker 2: And now he's a head coach, so he's evolving with

1141
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 2: the NFL and changing his schemes. And Carroll needs to

1142
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:56,840
Speaker 2: do that more. But that's I was really impressed with

1143
00:54:56,880 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 2: what swid. It is a question to see, you know,

1144
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 2: what is the transition from him to Demico rons. I

1145
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:05,719
Speaker 2: don't think it much will change, but from an adjustment standpoint,

1146
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 2: it is something the monitor. But I really love this

1147
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 2: team that just the floor is so.

1148
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:13,400
Speaker 1: High and you kind of figure that they need some

1149
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,320
Speaker 1: like they're kind of on their way to some positive

1150
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 1: reversion to the mean because Kyle Shanahan another coach that

1151
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:25,200
Speaker 1: I think relatively highly of. Kyle Shanahan has coached four

1152
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 1: seasons as a head coach in the NFL. He's won

1153
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:30,879
Speaker 1: more than six games only once, that thirteen and three

1154
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 1: year they went to the super Bowl. He's went six

1155
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:34,080
Speaker 1: and ten, four and twelve and six and ten the

1156
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 1: other three years. I think he's too good of a

1157
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 1: coach to continue to have that kind of track record.

1158
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 1: So I would bet on the Niners having a very

1159
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 1: good season as well. Let's finish it away Arizona because

1160
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 1: Arizona is the only team in this division that doesn't

1161
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 1: have a double digit win total. It's at eight and

1162
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,840
Speaker 1: a half. They're projected essentially as a five hundred team

1163
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 1: at bet MGM. The under his jew slightly, you know,

1164
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 1: to minus one fifteen, the overs at minus one oh five.

1165
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:08,480
Speaker 1: So we have a pretty even Stephen five hundred squad Stucky.

1166
00:56:09,239 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on Kyler Cliff and these Arizona Cardinals.

1167
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 2: Well, I hate Cliff Kingsbury. You know that.

1168
00:56:15,520 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 1: I knew it.

1169
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,759
Speaker 2: Sow Y're going for that one. I project them just

1170
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:21,959
Speaker 2: over eight wins, so there's not a ton of value,

1171
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 2: But I did. I did. Maybe this is a hate that,

1172
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 2: but I did bet the Cardinals to finish in fourth

1173
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 2: in this division plus one twenty or something very small.

1174
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:30,759
Speaker 2: Just a hate bet of Kingsbury.

1175
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: But I don't know. I don't know.

1176
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,399
Speaker 2: Look, Kyler Murray, we'll see if he could take another

1177
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:38,400
Speaker 2: step forward. You know, they improved the offensive line. They

1178
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:40,439
Speaker 2: went out and got Hudson at center, but I don't

1179
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 2: know what they're doing with this roster overall. I mean,

1180
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 2: they have good young linebackers, how far does that really go.

1181
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:50,480
Speaker 2: They got rid of Peterson, which I agreed with, you

1182
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 2: know his age and drop off, But then they bring

1183
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:54,800
Speaker 2: in Malcolm Butler. I mean, they bring in AJ Green,

1184
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 2: JJ Watt like they're just they're going back and they're

1185
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 2: hoping this is five years ago. So I have a

1186
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:04,719
Speaker 2: lot of questions about the corner group, in particular, the

1187
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:09,440
Speaker 2: play calling, just how this team is run. They're in

1188
00:57:09,520 --> 00:57:12,280
Speaker 2: a really tough division. So I love watching Kyler Murray,

1189
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:14,200
Speaker 2: but I think this is clearly the worst team in

1190
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:18,600
Speaker 2: the division. I project them at eight point two wins,

1191
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 2: so I don't really see any value in it. But

1192
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 2: I did throw just a few pesos on them to

1193
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:28,080
Speaker 2: finish in last in the division for shits in giggles,

1194
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 2: so I can laugh at at mister Kingsbury, who he's

1195
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 2: never won really one wherever he's been.

1196
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, there is your you know, scheduled Cliff Kingsbury bashing

1197
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:43,920
Speaker 1: from stuck Sean. How are you feeling about Kingsbury and

1198
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:45,040
Speaker 1: Kyler and these guys.

1199
00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:49,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think they're gonna go over if Keller Murray.

1200
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 3: It takes a pretty big year three leap. Here's rum

1201
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 3: that grows a passer, so there's a lot of upside there.

1202
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 3: But yeah, I agree with Stucky. I think it does

1203
00:57:57,280 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 3: come down to Cliff Kingsbury making year three leap himself.

1204
00:58:02,120 --> 00:58:03,920
Speaker 3: I would like to see him get more creative with

1205
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:06,200
Speaker 3: how he uses DeAndre Hopkins, you know, moving around the

1206
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:09,560
Speaker 3: formation a bit, great mismatches. I think you know, aj

1207
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 3: Green looked washed last year, but early reports out of

1208
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 3: camp are saying that he looks fine. So, you know,

1209
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:18,520
Speaker 3: with him and Rondelle Moore, I'm excited about him.

1210
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 2: They could be good.

1211
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 3: I think Christian Kirk will have his best season yet

1212
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 3: lining up in the slot potentially, that's that's his natural position.

1213
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:29,720
Speaker 3: So this team, this offense has a high ceiling they

1214
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:30,600
Speaker 3: could hit this year.

1215
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:33,320
Speaker 2: Same thing with Greg Derts too. Greg Dortch is my

1216
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 2: guy and he's on the roster and he's impressing in camp.

1217
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 2: I'm so happy he has a spot. Him and Rondo

1218
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 2: Moore like my favorite college plerder.

1219
00:58:40,040 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 1: So I hate him. So he's gonna be like the

1220
00:58:42,280 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 1: Farah Cooper role this year. He's gonna be like the

1221
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 1: special team wide receiver who George Dorch.

1222
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:53,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Dertsch is he was he had three three

1223
00:58:53,560 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 2: good punt returns against Dallas and he's he's gonna be

1224
00:58:58,480 --> 00:59:00,760
Speaker 2: doing I think a lot of special team stuff for him,

1225
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 2: and he's he's an exciting young player.

1226
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:06,160
Speaker 1: So's he's going to be a reason that Andy is

1227
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 1: a bella gets cutter is just a scratch every week essentially.

1228
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:13,880
Speaker 3: Potentially Yeah, yeah, So yeah, the the offense is a

1229
00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 3: high ceiling.

1230
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 2: Defense has a high ceiling as well.

1231
00:59:16,640 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 3: You know, JJ watten Chandler Jones could be interesting if

1232
00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 3: both stay healthy. Obviously, Buddha Baker is one of the

1233
00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 3: game's best safeties, and then you know Zavin Collins, Isaiah Simmons.

1234
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 3: They could be exciting fears to come. So there's a

1235
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 3: high steiling there, but I think at the end of

1236
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:33,800
Speaker 3: the day, they end up being average. So I'm staying

1237
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 3: away from this eight and a half win toll. I

1238
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:37,640
Speaker 3: think you guys are correct. Betting sort of on the

1239
00:59:37,680 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 3: extremes for this team is probably the way to go.

1240
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to be an eight or

1241
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 3: ninety team necessarily, but I think the total is about right.

1242
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 1: And yeah, this is just it's such a tough division,

1243
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 1: especially because you have in Sean mcvray, proven winner. You know,

1244
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 1: every year he's winning ten in pretty much nine games,

1245
00:59:55,400 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 1: but usually ten plus. In Seattle, Russell Wilson, proven winner.

1246
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 1: Even San Francisco, you know, even with Shanahan having you know,

1247
01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 1: the three six win seasons, you know, Garoppolo twenty two

1248
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 1: and age as a starter, Trey Lance behind him thirteen

1249
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 1: to three the year before, easy schedule. I mean, the

1250
01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 1: Cardinals have done nothing but be average. They haven't been

1251
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:21,680
Speaker 1: that kind of proven winner that I think you need

1252
01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 1: to unseat not one, not two, but three superior teams

1253
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:29,480
Speaker 1: in your division. And you know it's not all on

1254
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury. I mean, Kyler Murray has to be accountable too,

1255
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 1: because it's like as much as many fantasy numbers as

1256
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 1: he's put up, he's still never averaged more than seven

1257
01:00:38,440 --> 01:00:42,520
Speaker 1: point one yards per pass attempt raw or adjusted. So

1258
01:00:43,400 --> 01:00:46,680
Speaker 1: you know, Kyler Murray as a passer hasn't been great.

1259
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:49,640
Speaker 1: I don't think aj Green in his five point nothing

1260
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:51,680
Speaker 1: yards per target he's going to help that at all.

1261
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 1: And the Cardinals, I mean, it's like, why do they

1262
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:56,680
Speaker 1: get aj Green because they had a lot of luck

1263
01:00:56,680 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 1: getting DeAndre Hopkins, but they can't draft receivers with Kingsbury

1264
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 1: can't draft receivers, and he's trying to run the spread offense,

1265
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 1: like you know, they keen Butler out of the league.

1266
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 1: You know, Isabella probably a scratch or gets cut. Keyshawn

1267
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 1: Johnson usually a scratch unless the guys are injured ahead

1268
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:18,200
Speaker 1: of him. I mean, so I'm hoping Ronde all Moore

1269
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 1: is you know, is a step up from those guys.

1270
01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 1: But he's a guy, you know, they might throw to

1271
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:26,280
Speaker 1: him like negative two yards behind the line of scrimmage

1272
01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:29,000
Speaker 1: fifty times. I don't know. You know, this offense tend

1273
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:32,720
Speaker 1: to move sideways at times. And when you have like

1274
01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:35,280
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson the best deep ball thrower, you have Matthew

1275
01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:39,040
Speaker 1: Stafford in a loaded rams offense, and you have the

1276
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 1: Niners with the with the complete team that they have.

1277
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 1: I don't really see how you bet on this team

1278
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 1: other than maybe a long shot like division odds. But

1279
01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 1: I'd still go under for this team just because they

1280
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:53,080
Speaker 1: haven't They haven't proven anything to me, you know, in

1281
01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:57,080
Speaker 1: these two years, except that they're mediocre and Kyri's exciting

1282
01:01:57,120 --> 01:01:59,040
Speaker 1: and you know, you love to have him in fantasy.

1283
01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:01,520
Speaker 1: But I hang on with this team.

1284
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:04,200
Speaker 2: What's Kingsbury on the aggressive index?

1285
01:02:04,280 --> 01:02:06,040
Speaker 1: Do you have to you have that You're right, I

1286
01:02:06,040 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 1: can pull it up.

1287
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:10,160
Speaker 2: I also hate how conservative he is at times. He

1288
01:02:10,160 --> 01:02:14,120
Speaker 2: would think that he's like this young, you know, gunslinging

1289
01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 2: coach and like he'll settle for way too many field goals.

1290
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 2: He get way too conservative in the red zone.

1291
01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:24,400
Speaker 1: He's he the cover boy on the Football Outsiders article

1292
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:28,720
Speaker 1: for the aggressive index, he was number one. He was

1293
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:30,400
Speaker 1: the most aggressive coach in twenty two.

1294
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:34,400
Speaker 2: Wow, well what about twenty nineteen does it say?

1295
01:02:34,480 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 1: I can? I can google it. I'm sure it was

1296
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:37,920
Speaker 1: a turn like it was a turnaro because I do

1297
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:40,040
Speaker 1: remember him not being give.

1298
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:42,000
Speaker 2: Credit to Kingsbury. Then I can't believe it.

1299
01:02:42,160 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 6: No, you don't wait to murray first. He must have

1300
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:49,360
Speaker 6: went for it a lot on Fourth Town last year.

1301
01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:51,560
Speaker 6: That's gonna end up. I wish that's gonna up. Cutting

1302
01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 6: this because he hates Kingsbury, he can't have any credit.

1303
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:56,760
Speaker 1: Oh well, I'm kind of shitting on him, so he

1304
01:02:56,840 --> 01:03:00,160
Speaker 1: might leave it in there. In twenty nineteen Kingsbury he

1305
01:03:00,640 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 1: was they have a weird table. In twenty nineteen A

1306
01:03:03,600 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 1: they only have fifteen coaches. He was eighth, so he

1307
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 1: wasn't he was never super. I mean it's but I

1308
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:11,880
Speaker 1: mean it's a tough. It's also how much stock do

1309
01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:13,200
Speaker 1: you put it to the aggressive this index?

1310
01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 2: You know?

1311
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just one metric. I tend to agree

1312
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:18,840
Speaker 1: with you. I think I would say the decision making

1313
01:03:18,840 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 1: hasn't always been the best. I wouldn't like. I just

1314
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 1: it's more so that I just don't think he has

1315
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:32,200
Speaker 1: given them the edge that we thought hiring a coach

1316
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:35,880
Speaker 1: of his profile, you know, young guy, you know, outside

1317
01:03:35,920 --> 01:03:38,720
Speaker 1: the box thinker, he hasn't really given him an edge,

1318
01:03:38,760 --> 01:03:40,360
Speaker 1: Like it's not like he's been terrible, like, oh my god,

1319
01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 1: he should get fired. It's that he hasn't given him

1320
01:03:42,520 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 1: an edge. And to an extent, the same thing's kind

1321
01:03:45,320 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 1: of true for Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray has put up

1322
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:52,000
Speaker 1: tons of highlight plays. He's looked excellent at times, He's

1323
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:54,280
Speaker 1: given you loads of fantasy points almost every time he's

1324
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:56,480
Speaker 1: out there. But at the end of the day, he's

1325
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 1: thirteen and eighteen As a starter, he's never averaged even

1326
01:03:59,720 --> 01:04:03,320
Speaker 1: tho we average number in yards per attempt, the offense

1327
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 1: tends to go sideways a lot at times. I mean,

1328
01:04:06,160 --> 01:04:09,640
Speaker 1: it's just I just they're gonna have to prove it

1329
01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 1: to me before I start betting on them in any

1330
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:15,600
Speaker 1: type of future. So it's strictly a week, week to

1331
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:17,840
Speaker 1: week bet, and I could see myself still fading them

1332
01:04:17,880 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 1: because I think they're a little overrated. So there you go,

1333
01:04:20,480 --> 01:04:25,280
Speaker 1: Matt the cliff the cliff, excuse me, Kingsbury slander. Let's

1334
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:29,400
Speaker 1: wrap it up with our best bets for the NFC

1335
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:33,360
Speaker 1: South and the NFC West Sean, I'll start with you.

1336
01:04:34,040 --> 01:04:36,840
Speaker 3: So my favorite bet for the under is the Saints

1337
01:04:37,440 --> 01:04:39,040
Speaker 3: to go under their eight and a half win total

1338
01:04:39,040 --> 01:04:42,000
Speaker 3: at plus one twenty five. You know, they should still

1339
01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:46,280
Speaker 3: have a solid offensive line, defense, running game, but there's

1340
01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:48,960
Speaker 3: serious question marks at quarterback and wide receiver. Now that

1341
01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:51,919
Speaker 3: Michael Thomas should miss a significant portion of the first

1342
01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:54,360
Speaker 3: half of the season, and you can't move on from

1343
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:56,680
Speaker 3: a first ballot Hall of Famer and not see a

1344
01:04:56,720 --> 01:05:00,640
Speaker 3: downturn as an organization. So I think this team could

1345
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:02,760
Speaker 3: struggle to finish above five hundred. That's why I like

1346
01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:05,680
Speaker 3: the under eight and a half at plus one twenty five.

1347
01:05:06,080 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 3: And then for the over, I like the forty nine

1348
01:05:08,280 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 3: ers to go over ten and a half wins at

1349
01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:13,880
Speaker 3: plus one fifteen. Last year, they had the worst injury luck,

1350
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:16,800
Speaker 3: they had the third toughest schedule. Now they had the

1351
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 3: fifth easiest schedule, and I think the quarterback combo of

1352
01:05:20,360 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 3: Jimmy g and Trey Lance, however that sorts out, I

1353
01:05:22,840 --> 01:05:24,960
Speaker 3: think gives them a really high floor and high ceiling

1354
01:05:25,040 --> 01:05:26,480
Speaker 3: this year. So I love the over ten and a

1355
01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:28,120
Speaker 3: half at plus one fifteen.

1356
01:05:28,840 --> 01:05:31,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go look for unders. I don't really

1357
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:34,920
Speaker 2: love any unders in the two divisions that we covered.

1358
01:05:35,560 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 2: If I'd see some value on the Seattle under, But

1359
01:05:38,320 --> 01:05:40,040
Speaker 2: like I said before, I'd rather just bet them on

1360
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:42,720
Speaker 2: a week to week basis. If you want to join

1361
01:05:42,800 --> 01:05:46,360
Speaker 2: me on an under, I did bet Cardinals to finish

1362
01:05:46,440 --> 01:05:48,160
Speaker 2: fourth in the division. I think that's the way to

1363
01:05:48,200 --> 01:05:50,560
Speaker 2: play it. Come join me. We'll have fun making fun

1364
01:05:50,600 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 2: of Kingsbury in a week to week basis and a

1365
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:54,960
Speaker 2: tough division. My favorite bet of all is not necessarily

1366
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 2: an over, but it does codeside with what Kerner said,

1367
01:05:59,040 --> 01:06:01,560
Speaker 2: and that's the forty nine to make the playoffs minus

1368
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 2: two hundred. I know it's chalky, but this is a

1369
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:07,919
Speaker 2: team that should be much better this year. Just from

1370
01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:12,480
Speaker 2: a pure injury luck perspective, the floor is extremely high.

1371
01:06:12,600 --> 01:06:15,560
Speaker 2: I actually have them with the easiest schedule in the

1372
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:18,360
Speaker 2: NFL per My Power ratings. The only games I don't

1373
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,960
Speaker 2: have them favored in at Seattle barely and then in

1374
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 2: the season finale at the Rams, and that could turn

1375
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:28,160
Speaker 2: into a San Francisco home game. So this is a

1376
01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:31,840
Speaker 2: team with a very easy schedule. Former first rounders on

1377
01:06:31,880 --> 01:06:34,040
Speaker 2: the offensive line. I love the weapons that they have,

1378
01:06:34,200 --> 01:06:37,120
Speaker 2: deep stable, a back Shanahan call in plays and now

1379
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:40,120
Speaker 2: you have a second quarterback who you know, increases your ceiling,

1380
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:43,120
Speaker 2: but it also increases your floor because if there's an injury,

1381
01:06:43,240 --> 01:06:44,640
Speaker 2: you know, you have to go Lance or Jimmy g

1382
01:06:44,720 --> 01:06:47,720
Speaker 2: who can still win games. And it's a pretty weak NFC.

1383
01:06:48,120 --> 01:06:50,400
Speaker 2: There's a chance that every team from the NFC West

1384
01:06:50,440 --> 01:06:52,200
Speaker 2: ends up going to the playoffs. But you know, you

1385
01:06:52,240 --> 01:06:54,120
Speaker 2: could see the Bucks running away with their division, the

1386
01:06:54,120 --> 01:06:56,360
Speaker 2: Packers with THEIRS, and then you know the Cowboys in

1387
01:06:56,360 --> 01:06:58,720
Speaker 2: the UNFCS. You know, it's not a really deep NFC.

1388
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:01,960
Speaker 2: So I just don't see anyway, you know, barring disaster

1389
01:07:02,360 --> 01:07:05,200
Speaker 2: from an injury perspective or just terrible luck, that San

1390
01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 2: Fran doesn't get to nine to ten wins and it

1391
01:07:07,440 --> 01:07:10,320
Speaker 2: doesn't least get a wild card. So, you know, with

1392
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 2: their floor being so high, I think there's value on

1393
01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:15,880
Speaker 2: San Fran to make the playoffs of minus two hundred.

1394
01:07:16,600 --> 01:07:17,160
Speaker 3: I like it.

1395
01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:20,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to take a similar page out of year

1396
01:07:20,160 --> 01:07:23,200
Speaker 1: book and for the over instead of betting on one

1397
01:07:23,200 --> 01:07:26,000
Speaker 1: of the three teams in the NFC West to all

1398
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:29,000
Speaker 1: have double digit win totals or the Bucks ridiculously high

1399
01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:32,120
Speaker 1: twelve and a half win total. I'm going Bucks to

1400
01:07:32,280 --> 01:07:36,280
Speaker 1: win the NFC at three to one. That implies a

1401
01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:39,320
Speaker 1: twenty five percent chance of them winning the NFC. Tom

1402
01:07:39,320 --> 01:07:43,160
Speaker 1: Brady has won his conference in ten of his twenty

1403
01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 1: one years as a professional quarterback. That's a forty seven

1404
01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:50,520
Speaker 1: percent rate, nearly double what the odds are implying. So

1405
01:07:50,600 --> 01:07:52,880
Speaker 1: I love the Bucks to run it back and do

1406
01:07:52,920 --> 01:07:56,400
Speaker 1: it again. They have all of the continuity necessary to

1407
01:07:56,440 --> 01:08:00,120
Speaker 1: make that happen, plus a much easier schedule than they

1408
01:08:00,200 --> 01:08:03,000
Speaker 1: had when they won it a year ago. And for

1409
01:08:03,160 --> 01:08:06,520
Speaker 1: my favorite under, it's got to be the Carolina Panthers.

1410
01:08:06,640 --> 01:08:10,320
Speaker 1: Sam Donald's won only half as many games as he's

1411
01:08:10,400 --> 01:08:13,640
Speaker 1: lost in his career. He's thirteen and twenty five as

1412
01:08:13,680 --> 01:08:16,240
Speaker 1: a starter. This team has a bottom three zero line

1413
01:08:16,720 --> 01:08:19,760
Speaker 1: ranked by PFF. I think the Saints will still be

1414
01:08:19,840 --> 01:08:23,320
Speaker 1: competent enough to potentially sweep the Panthers. And I think

1415
01:08:23,360 --> 01:08:25,639
Speaker 1: the Falcons, even though I'm long on them, I think

1416
01:08:25,640 --> 01:08:28,800
Speaker 1: the Falcons with Arthur Smith with Matt Ryan, they have

1417
01:08:28,840 --> 01:08:32,760
Speaker 1: the advantage in two key spots head coaching, quarterback. I

1418
01:08:32,800 --> 01:08:35,920
Speaker 1: think it's possible that the Falcons sweep him as well.

1419
01:08:36,760 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 1: And obviously then you're looking at the you know, the

1420
01:08:40,400 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 1: Bucks and you're trying to pick up those wins against

1421
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:45,120
Speaker 1: other people on a schedule. I just don't see it

1422
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:48,920
Speaker 1: happening for this Panthers team. Middling team at best, but

1423
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:51,840
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a losing team, as

1424
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:54,200
Speaker 1: has Sam Donald been in all but one year of

1425
01:08:54,240 --> 01:08:57,400
Speaker 1: his career. So Panthers under seven and a half bucks

1426
01:08:57,479 --> 01:09:01,519
Speaker 1: three to one to win the NFC are my best bets,

1427
01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:03,439
Speaker 1: and that is going to do it well.

1428
01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:05,920
Speaker 2: I gotta say, Darnald, we got a lot of Donald

1429
01:09:05,920 --> 01:09:08,280
Speaker 2: and Kingsbury slander and here we're in form of.

1430
01:09:09,280 --> 01:09:12,200
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, just wait till Josh Allen gets hurt and

1431
01:09:12,240 --> 01:09:14,720
Speaker 1: we have to, you know, get Mitch Trubisky for a

1432
01:09:14,720 --> 01:09:16,559
Speaker 1: game or two. Then you can really go in. He's

1433
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:20,960
Speaker 1: a lead now now he is the problem, remember ah man? Yeah, man,

1434
01:09:21,200 --> 01:09:24,360
Speaker 1: I mean And for everybody out there stuck and I

1435
01:09:24,439 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 1: will be doing a six pack episode just as we've

1436
01:09:27,479 --> 01:09:29,800
Speaker 1: always been do it so, so look out for that

1437
01:09:29,880 --> 01:09:32,640
Speaker 1: and we hope you enjoyed these win total episodes. If

1438
01:09:32,680 --> 01:09:35,360
Speaker 1: you haven't heard the others, we have three other ones

1439
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:39,559
Speaker 1: too on the AFC and another on the NFC East

1440
01:09:39,560 --> 01:09:41,960
Speaker 1: and the NFC. Norris so go check those out, and

1441
01:09:42,040 --> 01:09:44,439
Speaker 1: of course you can check out the Fantasy Flex pods

1442
01:09:44,439 --> 01:09:48,760
Speaker 1: if you're into that, with Kerner, myself, Samantha Pervidi, UH

1443
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:51,599
Speaker 1: and UH and a bunch of great guests uh over

1444
01:09:51,640 --> 01:09:55,439
Speaker 1: there on the Fantasy Flex podcast feed. You can find

1445
01:09:55,439 --> 01:09:58,320
Speaker 1: Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker, you can

1446
01:09:58,360 --> 01:10:01,680
Speaker 1: find Stuck at Stucky, and you can find me at

1447
01:10:01,720 --> 01:10:04,880
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond. You can also follow our bets at those

1448
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:07,800
Speaker 1: same handles in the award winning Action Network AP and

1449
01:10:07,800 --> 01:10:10,720
Speaker 1: be sure to check out Actionnetwork dot com for all

1450
01:10:10,760 --> 01:10:15,080
Speaker 1: of our NFL fantasy and betting content. Until next time,

1451
01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:28,160
Speaker 1: let's get this money