Speaker 1: Check it on, man, No down, man, there's good morning.
Speaker 1: It's the Beating the Book podcast, Mega from the Day,
Speaker 1: beautiful downtown Las Vegas, the day home for the megapod
Speaker 1: all year long. We couldn't be happier to do it.
Speaker 1: It's Gil Alexander, by the way, Mike Palm, vice president
Speaker 1: of Operations for Circus Sports, alongside and made it possible
Speaker 1: here at the day. How you doing, Mike Gate, Good morning, Geod,
Speaker 1: morning Todd, Good morning, Pods. You got your little beverage,
Speaker 1: my Bahama breeze or whatever this is. Do you even
Speaker 1: let them know that you want them to, just that
Speaker 1: they see you and they just come back. There's there's
Speaker 1: eye contact and a recognition nonverbal. We gotta talk a
Speaker 1: bunch about survival. Todd Wishnev is up on the screen
Speaker 1: from his mother's cork addic somewhere in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with
Speaker 1: the Steel Stiller's logo behind him. Leven and O. Yes,
Speaker 1: that's in in honor of Wednesday afternoon, a National Football
Speaker 1: League action which was tremendously interesting. Thankfully I was not
Speaker 1: on the regular point spread to see the end of
Speaker 1: that ridiculous NFL fixed line situation. But it went well
Speaker 1: for me because I had under Robert Griffin passing yards
Speaker 1: in the fandel in game props, which are just incredible.
Speaker 1: If you haven't moved to Pennsylvania yet, you might as well,
Speaker 1: because it's unbelievable. We don't need to list all our
Speaker 1: bets for actually that that backdoor quarterback did take a
Speaker 1: great day for me into a very mid day. So
Speaker 1: I sympathize with people that can. I ask you a question,
Speaker 1: because you've you've spoken glowingly about these endgame props. What
Speaker 1: kind of limits do they take on these endgame props?
Speaker 1: You know, I just started getting into them, so I
Speaker 1: didn't even know they existed until a week or two ago. Um,
Speaker 1: So I don't. I don't know the answer to that. Um,
Speaker 1: you know you certainly he hasn't challenged the limits yet.
Speaker 1: But well, that's what I'm saying. Well, they take a
Speaker 1: nickel on on these bets, and so you've answered, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean they have so far. I think it also
Speaker 1: depends on what happens, and I'm sure there's all kind
Speaker 1: of high jinks involved in it, but the fact that
Speaker 1: so far it exists is nice. That's great. Thank you, Todd.
Speaker 1: Todd I'm gonna need more energy out of you today,
Speaker 1: need more in than this. It's a little seems like
Speaker 1: subdued Todd. Right now I want singing music, singing singing,
Speaker 1: fight songs and that kind of thing. Later, Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: just worried about you. Now he goes starting. Now he
Speaker 1: goes silent. The hair is much better this, I have
Speaker 1: to tell you that. By the way, I want to
Speaker 1: thank you. This is the most supported podcast episode in
Speaker 1: the history of podcasts. Behind in the control room over there,
Speaker 1: Dez Karina, ken Book, Jason Miles, incredible, everybody working on
Speaker 1: this episode. Everyone that works at Visa are rotating guests
Speaker 1: kind enough to join us at the d today. I
Speaker 1: hope to get into a big Survivor discussion because this
Speaker 1: gentleman is a mult of a pole handicapping contest winner
Speaker 1: here in Las Vegas. Been on the podcast many times before,
Speaker 1: we just never had him in person. He's won the
Speaker 1: Wind Casino one hundred thousand dollars single survivor back in
Speaker 1: the day, the winner of the Palms NFL Challenge. Hey
Speaker 1: remember the poems. Remember that was open uh winners stations
Speaker 1: fifty two thousand dollar last man standing in college football
Speaker 1: multiple playoff appearances and Golden Nugget contests, including first and
Speaker 1: second regular season finishes, multiple private eliminations resulting in fistical success.
Speaker 1: But here I mean station's NFL Last Man Standing contest
Speaker 1: had ninety six hundred plus entries. UH and UH. Las
Speaker 1: Vegas Chris had four of the remaining twenty live tickets
Speaker 1: before his lucratively hedged knockout. When was that last year?
Speaker 1: Last year twenty nineteen one thousand in the one million
Speaker 1: pardon me? In the one million Dollar Circle millions appropriately
Speaker 1: named at two entries. Last year he finished twentieth and
Speaker 1: thirty one out of eighteen hundred and seventy five, and
Speaker 1: then this year in the top two percent of thirty
Speaker 1: one entries. Uh. Ladies and gentlemen, it's my buddy, Las
Speaker 1: Vegas Chris. How are you doing, man, I'm doing pretty well.
Speaker 1: Happy to be here in person. I'm so glad this.
Speaker 1: You are the perfect guests. We were talking about this
Speaker 1: little before. I was like, let me just get through
Speaker 1: survivor long enough where I can have chriss on because
Speaker 1: you have thoughts on and we don't do with them.
Speaker 1: Now we can work up to it. Thoughts on what
Speaker 1: what you would have done on Thanksgiving circus one quirky
Speaker 1: rule where it's like Thanksgiving us its own week. Um,
Speaker 1: because I'm curious how you would have played it, and
Speaker 1: we'll get into that and all the all these other
Speaker 1: sort of things you want to talk about. But you
Speaker 1: are more qualified than anybody. And of course the other
Speaker 1: thing that you do for people are like, oh, but
Speaker 1: what about a t S three hundred plus documented place
Speaker 1: since January and you're hitting in the NFL over six
Speaker 1: exactly exactly sixty. That's unbelievable. By the way, it's a
Speaker 1: lot of places January. That's ti vo am. I worked
Speaker 1: by a M rump Off to do it. Yes, every day,
Speaker 1: all day, every day. I don't even sleep in the
Speaker 1: bedroom anymore. You sleep on the couch next to the computer.
Speaker 1: I go to the computer before I go to the
Speaker 1: in the morning. That's why I feel about not sleeping there.
Speaker 1: The better. She seems pretty happy. She's got the dog
Speaker 1: dog better than Chris Mikey. Uh. Survivor has been phenomenal.
Speaker 1: You couldn't have imagined it would be this great, could you?
Speaker 1: Only Derek Stevens could have imagined it would be this great?
Speaker 1: And and where do we go from here, right, but
Speaker 1: let's just enjoy it. Um. Three weeks ago I made
Speaker 1: a bet with Paul Howard. I let him take whichever
Speaker 1: side he want. I made it one minus one six
Speaker 1: there would be an eighteen and oh or multiple eighteen
Speaker 1: and os plus one. There wouldn't he jumped at the
Speaker 1: wooden for Nickel. He's got plus one four. I think
Speaker 1: the question now is how many people go eighteen and all?
Speaker 1: That should be the new thing. Give me a lot
Speaker 1: and I'd love I'd love Well. I have a number.
Speaker 1: Derek and I are going to debate it later on
Speaker 1: my guys in the desk. He thinks my number is ludicrous.
Speaker 1: U I'll tell you what my number is. I can
Speaker 1: tell you mine. It's twenty nine and a half. I
Speaker 1: was in the twenties two but not quite that high.
Speaker 1: Mitches is eleven and a half. I think that's low.
Speaker 1: Mine is twenty three and a half. Dave share Pan
Speaker 1: put twenty four and a half out there. Yeah. I've
Speaker 1: heard some people a'm all Shaw who is one of
Speaker 1: the So there's one hundred and three entries left. Seven
Speaker 1: of them are have to one of which I am one. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm all Shaw who was in the one group as well. Uh.
Speaker 1: He was saying he thought it was gonna be like
Speaker 1: seventy some at the end shop and I'm like, no, dude,
Speaker 1: there's no way. He told me. But this was five
Speaker 1: weeks ago. He told me he thought fifty people would
Speaker 1: chop it. Yeah, so this was without all the information
Speaker 1: we have. Not I'm sure he'll adjust the numb there's
Speaker 1: too many weeks left, yeah, too many weeks left. Is
Speaker 1: how do you know that there's so many people that
Speaker 1: have some teams available? Oh you think? Waitin how do
Speaker 1: you guys know that there's so many people left with
Speaker 1: available teams that are locks to win like you seem
Speaker 1: to It sounds from what you guys are saying like
Speaker 1: people are going to make it through easily. So what
Speaker 1: I don't understand is how are you making that determination
Speaker 1: without knowing what all the hundred people have left on
Speaker 1: their team. We do, though, because circule out an availability
Speaker 1: matrix every week where you can see who has who left,
Speaker 1: and everybody who's in it now ought to have at
Speaker 1: least scripted out the rest of the way. But there's
Speaker 1: always mind. It's always a mind, so you can't so
Speaker 1: you can't tell and you can see that there's tons
Speaker 1: of people with really good teams about just good teams,
Speaker 1: but that are playing there really bad teams that are
Speaker 1: playing the Jets Jackson. There's a whole bunch of people
Speaker 1: that you can see have favorable matchups. They have path
Speaker 1: paths to go the distance. You, Chris, you think this
Speaker 1: is a free pass week. I think it's a free
Speaker 1: pass week. Well, we'll get to this because I'm curious
Speaker 1: why you think it's a free pass week. Everything scares
Speaker 1: me at this point. I'm terrified by everything you're playing
Speaker 1: out in your head, how every pick could lose that
Speaker 1: you're thinking about. Absolutely. Meanwhile, I'm I'm just shy of
Speaker 1: them all in that I've known who I'm picking every
Speaker 1: single week e'xcept for Thanksgiving. The entire time I said
Speaker 1: varied based on COVID though, and the possibility either a
Speaker 1: game was moved or the possibility a game could be
Speaker 1: of course, COVID is is. The COVID is as big
Speaker 1: a factor as winning your game at this point. That's
Speaker 1: why when them all says he did it all on
Speaker 1: a plane flight back from Boston in two hours, and
Speaker 1: he's never spent more than five minutes on it. How
Speaker 1: could you not spend more than five minutes each week
Speaker 1: diagnosing the COVID. That's right, that's right. I think there
Speaker 1: might be a bit of an exaggeration. Let's let's start
Speaker 1: with the with the normal format, will work up the Survivor.
Speaker 1: So I'm actually talking about Survivor. But Todd records are
Speaker 1: what we're kind of cush. Last week, you and uh
Speaker 1: Mikey both went one and two to even up your
Speaker 1: records at seventeen seventeen and two. I got crushed oh
Speaker 1: and three with my overs, and I am fifteen twenty
Speaker 1: and one in the teaser game, I am the leader
Speaker 1: at eight and four, and you guys both lost and
Speaker 1: have fallen to seven and five. The one that killed
Speaker 1: me last week was Kansas City because we had three
Speaker 1: in a hook here on the show, Like, how did
Speaker 1: that turn into a loss? Um? Okay, so those are
Speaker 1: the records. Um, we don't have any Thursday Night football
Speaker 1: tonight because the Ravens and the Catboys got scuttled because
Speaker 1: of the Ravens and the Steelers. By the way, the
Speaker 1: biggest takeaway from that game yesterday that Bud Dupree injury. Man.
Speaker 1: I don't know, Todd, you're a Steelers guy. They're eleven
Speaker 1: and oh but they don't have Bud dupre Now. They
Speaker 1: can't run the football, so Big Ben had to chuck
Speaker 1: it around fifty one times just to beat a bad
Speaker 1: Ravens team. In terms of who they had at starting quarterback,
Speaker 1: all the injuries they ended up having during the game,
Speaker 1: the Steelers, who they've beaten, doesn't look all that good.
Speaker 1: That's I mean. I called the Browns a paper tiger
Speaker 1: at eight and three, But I mean, who's who has
Speaker 1: a more inflated record in the end. I wonder because
Speaker 1: the Steelers had to make If I had to make
Speaker 1: Kansas City against Pittsburgh and the a f C Championship
Speaker 1: game line, which even if it took place in Pittsburgh,
Speaker 1: I would make Kansas City in Pittsburgh, I would make
Speaker 1: Kansas City minus five. Todd wish. Now that's a little strike.
Speaker 1: That's too stiff, Tod, that's stiff. Maybe maybe three. Chris
Speaker 1: is already looking for a line of out to bet that. Alright,
Speaker 1: so what do we do best bets? We start with
Speaker 1: best bets. We always start with our guest Las Vegas. Chris,
Speaker 1: your first best bet of the week, sir, Oh, this
Speaker 1: is the one thing I didn't work on. So I'm
Speaker 1: just gonna pick everything randomly. You guys do them in order.
Speaker 1: But my philosophy is to pretty much bet everything the same,
Speaker 1: and I want to bet the same across the board,
Speaker 1: and then I'll downgrade something for injuries or uh it
Speaker 1: just smells rotten. Uh, you know, personal decisions. So but
Speaker 1: pretty much everything is the same, and no matter how
Speaker 1: good it looks on the metrics, Uh, I find it
Speaker 1: a longer and it doesn't make a difference. I'm having
Speaker 1: a tough time ranking my three too, so I get it.
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that I personally like
Speaker 1: is the Titans in Cleveland over. Um, God, whatever you
Speaker 1: got against the Brownies, I have as an over I
Speaker 1: have fifty three and a half. Yeah. I like that.
Speaker 1: When you're talking about some you know, two teams with
Speaker 1: really crappy defenses. You've got the in my rankings defense
Speaker 1: in Tennessee and the twenty defense in Cleveland. And everybody
Speaker 1: knows Tennessee is a solid offensive team. I have them
Speaker 1: ranked five. Um and Cleveland, Ah, they've got some glamourus
Speaker 1: stats on offense that make them look better than they are.
Speaker 1: I don't have them rated all that high offensively, um,
Speaker 1: but they do have three or three weather games in
Speaker 1: a row that you know, brought down their offensive stats
Speaker 1: obviously and actually improved those horrible defensive stats. Cleveland was
Speaker 1: down like in the thirty twenty nine range before the
Speaker 1: Weather games. But I just see that there that uh,
Speaker 1: there's a key injury on the Titan side, day Ron Brown.
Speaker 1: They're key running a linebacker who would be good against
Speaker 1: Cleveland's number one rushing offense, and he's not gonna be there.
Speaker 1: So Cleveland should be able to move the ball, um,
Speaker 1: and they should be able to pass the ball too,
Speaker 1: And and is ridiculous as Baker look last week with
Speaker 1: some of his passes, Uh, he's not making the same
Speaker 1: mistakes he made last year. He had was it six
Speaker 1: turnovers last year? He only as eight this year, probably
Speaker 1: because he just can't throw the ball anywhere. But uh, alright,
Speaker 1: I don't know what that was. So I I just see,
Speaker 1: And I don't think Tennessee is going to be as
Speaker 1: focused on this game. I think that they really came
Speaker 1: to play last week, that there's been two weeks in
Speaker 1: a row where they've come to play. Uh, Indianapolis, UH
Speaker 1: is two games behind them now, UH for the division,
Speaker 1: Tennessee can kind of let up a little bit, even
Speaker 1: though we were talking about two identical teams for the
Speaker 1: a f C South lead though those teams eight and three, right, So,
Speaker 1: I just I don't see tend I just see a
Speaker 1: little bit of a of a drop off for Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Focus also, so I see mistakes, I see carelessness, I
Speaker 1: see bad defense, and and the over just looks good
Speaker 1: to me. By the way, let me clarify Cleveland in
Speaker 1: the a f C North, but Tennessee with a one
Speaker 1: game lead over Indianapolis and the a f C South,
Speaker 1: both teams Cleveland Tennessee eight and three, both on the
Speaker 1: inside of the playoff race. Right now, Mike, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go back to the scene of a crime, UH in Glendale, Arizona,
Speaker 1: where last time Todd and I were APO with him
Speaker 1: on the Cardinals and me on the Bills. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go back and play the Bills as a short favorite
Speaker 1: in Glendale and rich is really a game where they've
Speaker 1: played in this building this year in San Francisco has not,
Speaker 1: but is now assuming this is their home field because
Speaker 1: of the Santa Clara County restrictions. I I you know,
Speaker 1: I listened to Gil Gil Show talking about the decimation
Speaker 1: of injuries both on the defensive line, the quarterback, and
Speaker 1: how this is still a top team in the NFL,
Speaker 1: top half, top half team in the NFL. You know,
Speaker 1: we got killed. We got killed on this game last week,
Speaker 1: and that everybody had San Francisco against the Rams. It
Speaker 1: was all one side of action and they were right.
Speaker 1: Shanahan with two weeks to prepare was excellent. They you know,
Speaker 1: they got it out, they got tied and still won
Speaker 1: that game. They've they've overachieved here. I just think this
Speaker 1: Bill's team, you really have to play well to beat him.
Speaker 1: They're they're there are no easy out any week, and
Speaker 1: they get the experience of traveling again, they've already been
Speaker 1: in this building. I think they're the better team. This
Speaker 1: game is essentially a pick. I think Josh Allen has progressed.
Speaker 1: Let's not forget if there's not that halt yeah minus one.
Speaker 1: Let's not forget if there's not that hail mary uh.
Speaker 1: Last week there there are ten points ahead. There went
Speaker 1: in that game by ten at home and covering against
Speaker 1: San Diego. Notwithstanding that the nonsense with Anthony Lynn on
Speaker 1: the goal line once they did catch it. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna lay one here in a game that's a neutral
Speaker 1: sight game with the bill in real life? Would you
Speaker 1: just bet the money line here? I would? Okay, Yes,
Speaker 1: that's right. I want to imagine. Buffalo minus one is
Speaker 1: what we'll log in as Mikey's official pick. There. That's
Speaker 1: the second of two Monday night games with COVID postponement.
Speaker 1: You always have to keep track of his. Washington Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: is a five pm Eastern two pm Pacific Monday night
Speaker 1: Monday afternoon ish at least on the Pacific time zone game,
Speaker 1: and then Buffalo San Francisco, which is at as Mikey said,
Speaker 1: in Glendale, the first of two consecutive games the Niners
Speaker 1: will play in Glendale, and by the way, a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks after that, they already have a game at
Speaker 1: Glendale against the Cardinals, so three out of four weeks
Speaker 1: they'll play in Arizona, Buffalo, and San Francisco. Is the
Speaker 1: second of the two Monday night games, a fifteen eastern
Speaker 1: five Pacific number one from my first of all, this
Speaker 1: is this is a ridiculous week. I mean, most weeks
Speaker 1: you look at the anti fire like this is ridiculous
Speaker 1: to bet pregame, and uh, this just seems even harder
Speaker 1: than usual. I'm just gonna go with something. I'm going
Speaker 1: with Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn. I mean, I know
Speaker 1: all the struggles that New England has, and I know
Speaker 1: Herbert's good, and I could see the Chargers easily winning
Speaker 1: the game. But when it comes down to it, I
Speaker 1: got Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn. When is that ever
Speaker 1: gonna happen in the rest of our lives, a coaching
Speaker 1: mismatch to that degree, Um, Patriots or minus one? I
Speaker 1: see or pick them. I'll say, We'll say even Pats
Speaker 1: minus one. I just have to win the football game.
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick versus Anthony Lynn. I don't know. I don't
Speaker 1: want to say anything else. That's it, Bill Belichick versus
Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn. Give me the Pats. Okay, you got the Pats,
Speaker 1: which right now? What do you see? And Pats as
Speaker 1: one point minus one? Yeah, drifting towards a pick them
Speaker 1: the more we go on this week, the I'm gonna
Speaker 1: do two here because that's my number two pick as well.
Speaker 1: I'm on Bill Belichick in the and the Patriots. And
Speaker 1: I'll just add to that. If we're just doing this
Speaker 1: on a blind you know, the blind comparison thing, and
Speaker 1: you see the Chargers personnel and the Patriots personnel, the
Speaker 1: Chargers should win this game every time as a pick up.
Speaker 1: But it is Belichick against Anthony Lynn. And this comes
Speaker 1: down to a self loathing thing. If I bet the
Speaker 1: Chargers and they lose, I hate myself. If I bet
Speaker 1: the Patriots and they lose, I can live with that
Speaker 1: every day. And you're right, we don't get this opportunity
Speaker 1: very much. By the immutable laws of football, you must
Speaker 1: bet on Belichick against Lens. So that's my number too,
Speaker 1: picky sir. If you switch the coaches, Belichick is coaching
Speaker 1: the Chargers personnel and Lynn is coaching the Patriots. What's
Speaker 1: the number on this? It's a great point, a touchdown,
Speaker 1: it's a touchdown, might be a touchdown. Uh, it's so true,
Speaker 1: you know. I I tweeted something out on Sunday that
Speaker 1: that the NFL announcers as bad as they are or
Speaker 1: more often correct than Lynn is, which is amazing. I mean,
Speaker 1: they miss everything, they miss everything. Yeah, there's a there's
Speaker 1: a writer in San Diego Sports columnist that has dubbed
Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn Rolex for his precisely clock man phenomenal. I
Speaker 1: asked the question for you because I almost lost two
Speaker 1: bets last week on that game. At the end, if
Speaker 1: in the last play, had they run the quarterback sneak
Speaker 1: with their lineman actually running forward instead of running backward,
Speaker 1: and had gotten into the end zone, would they have
Speaker 1: had to kick the extra point? Because I know in
Speaker 1: the old days you did have to kick the extra point,
Speaker 1: but in the and then I heard that later there
Speaker 1: was a rule change that they don't have to kick
Speaker 1: the extra point. What would have the story been at
Speaker 1: the end of that game, you go down to the
Speaker 1: two yard line and near the ball. No, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: it had no effect because they were losing by ten.
Speaker 1: I'm telling it was twenty seventeen. Had the Chargers gotten
Speaker 1: a touchdown on fourth down, it was three seconds left.
Speaker 1: If the last play the game would have him been
Speaker 1: dumping into the end zone three would they have come
Speaker 1: and kicked the extra point? Because I know in the
Speaker 1: old days you had to kick an extra point, you
Speaker 1: had to do a final play. But then I think
Speaker 1: they changed the rule to make it like college where
Speaker 1: you don't do the extra point. Does anybody know what
Speaker 1: the actual rule is on that? Yeah, but I don't
Speaker 1: really know if I understand the question, why wouldn't they
Speaker 1: I bet money that they still have to do it,
Speaker 1: but they, Yeah, they do. I thought there was a
Speaker 1: rule change that in the NFL they stopped doing that
Speaker 1: last extra point. May be wrong, you're gonna have sworn.
Speaker 1: I saw Kyler Murray uhl remember that one. He just
Speaker 1: came out and need the ball. But Todd, you're saying,
Speaker 1: but there were still time left. So you're saying if
Speaker 1: there's no time on the clock, that's what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1: There wasn't that Arizona game, otherwise they would That's correct,
Speaker 1: that's right. No, the Arizona game, there was time. There was, Yeah,
Speaker 1: because there was two seconds left. Because my my joke,
Speaker 1: and it wasn't really a joke. I thought that Cliff
Speaker 1: Kingsbury was getting all this praise for being smart enough
Speaker 1: not to kick the extra point, risking a block and
Speaker 1: at two points the other way. I actually thought he
Speaker 1: think he thought it was a time down. Um. So yeah, um,
Speaker 1: but my first pick, I'm going with the Colts, and
Speaker 1: I know this is the worst of it by the
Speaker 1: time we did this show here Thursday morning, it's three
Speaker 1: and a hook, which obviously I don't like nearly as
Speaker 1: much as I liked it earlier in the week. But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with what my first reaction was on
Speaker 1: guessing lines. This was two and a half at the
Speaker 1: time or three in favor of the Colts. I do
Speaker 1: think this is the Bilow Cell high that Chrissie andrews
Speaker 1: Uh framed it as the other day after I said
Speaker 1: I liked Indianapolis. I think the Colts couldn't have looked
Speaker 1: worse in that game against the Titans. It was a
Speaker 1: perfect matchup for Derrick Henry and the Titans. DeForest Buckner
Speaker 1: and a couple other defenders were out of that game.
Speaker 1: Buckner had was on the COVID reserve list, he couldn't play,
Speaker 1: and so the Titans were just ran rough shot. Derrick
Speaker 1: Henry had ridiculous amount of yards in the first half.
Speaker 1: Um I give specifically how much, but it was well
Speaker 1: over a hundred yards in the first half of that ballgame,
Speaker 1: and so I just think you have to kind of
Speaker 1: threw row that game out as bad as the Colts
Speaker 1: were beaten there, and then On the other hand, Houston
Speaker 1: couldn't have looked better on Thanksgiving. They do have extra
Speaker 1: rest here, but that was a game where they had
Speaker 1: will Fuller. Will Fuller is Donzo with performance enhancing drug
Speaker 1: suspension for six weeks. They went ahead and they they
Speaker 1: cut Kenny Stills before that. I don't think they could
Speaker 1: have known. Maybe maybe they did, maybe they didn't, But
Speaker 1: I just think Houston they can't run the football. Indianapolis
Speaker 1: is getting defenders back, very really solid defense. I don't
Speaker 1: know how Houston scores here rampantly in this game. I
Speaker 1: like Indianapolis. I'll even give the three in the hook,
Speaker 1: even though I wish it were a better number. You
Speaker 1: see three in hook, you see threes three in a hook, right,
Speaker 1: it's three, Yeah, three and a half. I'm gonna do
Speaker 1: that's That's still my first pick, and then New England
Speaker 1: is my second. Mikey number two, Todd, I think, oh, no,
Speaker 1: Chris number two before Mikey goes. I've just looked up
Speaker 1: on the Google machine. NFL changes rule removes p A
Speaker 1: t s after game winning TVs at the end of regulation.
Speaker 1: They passed a rule in two thousand eighteen after the
Speaker 1: stefon Diggs touched on at the end of the Biking
Speaker 1: Saints games. So I knew that there was some kind
Speaker 1: of rule, But that just says they don't have to
Speaker 1: kick it after a game winning TV on the last play,
Speaker 1: say happened? What was your point with that question? What?
Speaker 1: I don't understand what your point was with that question, though?
Speaker 1: What are you driving? My point is is that could
Speaker 1: have affected things. Let's say the Chargers get that touchdown
Speaker 1: right and now they're losing three. Do they have to
Speaker 1: kick the extra point to make it four? Or is
Speaker 1: the game over? Because that could affect your in game
Speaker 1: bets or you know a million other things one would
Speaker 1: have affected. So you're saying the verdict is they have
Speaker 1: to or they don't have to. Well, I don't still
Speaker 1: don't know, because this says NFL changes rule removes p
Speaker 1: E t s after game winning t ds at the
Speaker 1: end of regulation. Now, this wouldn't have been a game
Speaker 1: winning TV. This would have just been a meaningless backdoor
Speaker 1: t D. So it doesn't whether the rules changed for
Speaker 1: backdoor tds or just game winning TV. Game winning we
Speaker 1: know because if you remember the amazing Stefon Dig's miracle
Speaker 1: play here, they had to bring everybody back, scored a
Speaker 1: sixty one yard touchdown as time expired. That's when they
Speaker 1: passed the rule after that, because it was so ridiculous
Speaker 1: that they brought everybody out after the locker room. I believe,
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't bet on it. But I believe that
Speaker 1: Todd is correct that the rule has been changed to
Speaker 1: reflect college where if it does not factor into the
Speaker 1: winning of the game, it's no longer kicked. I thought
Speaker 1: it was. That's what I thought it was. Someone and
Speaker 1: wait till somebody loses a bet on it if they
Speaker 1: but you can so. I almost lost two bets this
Speaker 1: week with that. Had they gotten that touchdown, I would
Speaker 1: have lost whatever. Anyways, And you just should know about it,
Speaker 1: because if you're betting in game lines, or even if
Speaker 1: you're betting regular game lines and you want to head yourself,
Speaker 1: it's important to know. You know, let's say there's twenty
Speaker 1: one seconds left and there's you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: it could matter good point Chris number two. Sorry, Mike,
Speaker 1: I like your indie. Also, imagine how bad of a
Speaker 1: team Houston would be if they weren't all on p
Speaker 1: E d S. But I won't use that game though,
Speaker 1: let me come up with something else then. Um, um,
Speaker 1: I like uh, I like the Raiders a lot this week. Um,
Speaker 1: it's another you know, by low situation. That was a
Speaker 1: really tough spot last week. They can't lay an egg
Speaker 1: twice in a you know, it was just a you know,
Speaker 1: coming off of a Kansas City game and losing in
Speaker 1: that fashion and traveling to the East and and and
Speaker 1: everybody and their grandmother on them. You know, they were
Speaker 1: just you know, kind of full of themselves probably and
Speaker 1: not as focused. Even Gruden made a coaching error in
Speaker 1: that game. I couldn't believe it. I forget what it was.
Speaker 1: But he did something silly. He's done some silly before. You.
Speaker 1: Gruden did something silly and that surprised you. About the
Speaker 1: field goal against field goal, Yeah, is that what he loves?
Speaker 1: Kicking field goals. If he's down seven, he figures way
Speaker 1: nine scores were right back in it. No, he was.
Speaker 1: He was kicking a field goal on the five yard line,
Speaker 1: right He Also he also did something earlier in the
Speaker 1: year where it was like he could make the field
Speaker 1: goal to basically win the game, but it was like
Speaker 1: a really low field goal. It went from him being
Speaker 1: a minus money line or if he went down to
Speaker 1: minus six. I mean, it was not a great risk
Speaker 1: reward analogy analyst. But I think, uh, what I also
Speaker 1: like about the Raiders is UH metrically, it's it's night
Speaker 1: and day versus the Jets. I think it's actually the
Speaker 1: number one UH metric difference between teams this week. Believe
Speaker 1: it or not. The Raiders aren't all that high on
Speaker 1: my list, so but and hardly the biggest spread. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so Chris, you're taking Raiders minus nine. Um, No, I
Speaker 1: prefer the eighth that it is. He'd actually prefer the Actually,
Speaker 1: I see it nine all over the place, Gil, What
Speaker 1: do you see right there on the circuit board. It's
Speaker 1: all over the place form like seven and a half nine.
Speaker 1: So I would say it's either eight or eight and
Speaker 1: a half consensus. Okay, we'll give him at I don't
Speaker 1: I don't mind. I was just trying to give this
Speaker 1: definitely not nine fair decision. How much am I responsible
Speaker 1: for in this? Oh so much? But and and and
Speaker 1: here's the little bonus. And it's a difference between a
Speaker 1: team like Kansas City and and UH and some of
Speaker 1: the other teams like Pittsburgh When the Raiders can go
Speaker 1: for the juggular. I think they like to take out
Speaker 1: their frustrations on other teams, and if they get the opportunity,
Speaker 1: they're not going to just go through the motions. They're
Speaker 1: gonna want to, you know, run free. They're gonna want
Speaker 1: to bully and run free in the pasture and and
Speaker 1: get all their energy out. So that's one of the
Speaker 1: other reasons I kind like it. At least you know that, uh,
Speaker 1: this team will probably play hard to the end. I
Speaker 1: have to worry about that defense so that I have
Speaker 1: them rated thirty one, just above the Jets defense. So, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, potential problem, but uh, I'm millionaire risk it.
Speaker 1: They do. They do great radio. This is compared to
Speaker 1: San Francisco sports radio, where I lived most of my
Speaker 1: adult life. Local radio here in Vegas is quite good.
Speaker 1: I think the quality of it is very good. And
Speaker 1: as somebody asked a question about the Raiders, they're like,
Speaker 1: we can We're already at the stage now where we
Speaker 1: can ask after they after they laid the egg against
Speaker 1: Atlanta Derek Carr with a pick six and three lost bumbles,
Speaker 1: They're like, three or four years ago, three or four
Speaker 1: years from now, who are we going to say, is
Speaker 1: the worst draft pick sugs Abram Feral Like you're already
Speaker 1: going through that exercise, you know on defense. Uh, sugs
Speaker 1: obviously actually be not sugs rather rugs on offense, and
Speaker 1: your answers may vary. Number two same, Yeah, I haven't
Speaker 1: haven't written down from before the chosen a different No,
Speaker 1: that's it's okay. We just can't get three people. If
Speaker 1: three people as I don't think things couldn't have gone
Speaker 1: worse for I don't want to go long into this.
Speaker 1: Things couldn't have gone worse for him last week. Um,
Speaker 1: I think they can get I think that's one of
Speaker 1: those games you just throw out, you get it out
Speaker 1: of your mind. I mean, I made this number ten
Speaker 1: and a half, so I think there's value here in eight. Um.
Speaker 1: I know it's probably gonna get to ten. I mean
Speaker 1: that's the way it's. It's trending. But they did this
Speaker 1: last year when they were six and four, they got
Speaker 1: beat by the Jets three. They Yeah, in New York.
Speaker 1: They're still in the playoff hunt. It's an important game
Speaker 1: for them, the Jets. I understand your concerns about the Raids.
Speaker 1: The Raiders are a poor defense, but the Darnald couldn't
Speaker 1: even they couldn't take advantage of Miami last week at
Speaker 1: home either. They couldn't put points on the board. So
Speaker 1: that's my number two. Can I just did you see
Speaker 1: the Jets Dolphins game? By any chance, if you watch
Speaker 1: that game, I was scared the whole game exactly. This
Speaker 1: is my point. The Dolphins were no slam dunk. There
Speaker 1: was a play in the first half, the catch, where
Speaker 1: DeVante Parker caught a pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick. It was clearly,
Speaker 1: by today's standards, not a catch, and they called it
Speaker 1: a catch on the field. Adam Gaze throws the challenge flag.
Speaker 1: It survived replay, Like he said, they must not have
Speaker 1: the technology, it must be broken. And that led to
Speaker 1: the dolphins first go ahead touchdown. And you look, I'm
Speaker 1: not saying the Jets would have one. Probably wouldn't have,
Speaker 1: but you never know when something like that happens, you
Speaker 1: never know what could have been. I'd like to make
Speaker 1: one comment, and this is not sour grapes. I've actually
Speaker 1: benefited from from all these horrible, horrible calls. But the
Speaker 1: standard of calls in the National Football League is atrocious
Speaker 1: and it's it's amazing how miraculously all these teams get
Speaker 1: back into these games. And you have to factor it's
Speaker 1: it's a minor factor, believe it or not. Uh, you
Speaker 1: have to figure out how gameflow might potentially go. And
Speaker 1: I honestly fully expect and that the refs are gonna
Speaker 1: help me out when I'm behind. That's Chris. We've been
Speaker 1: talking about it for the NFL is either telling the
Speaker 1: refs listen. We don't want the televisions to go off.
Speaker 1: So when somebody's ahead by fourteen points, make a you know,
Speaker 1: strategic holden call. Every once in a while, make a strategic,
Speaker 1: you know what, illegal hands to the face call. There's
Speaker 1: definitely something going on now me and you can't prove it, Chris.
Speaker 1: But we've only watched a thousand games and we've seen
Speaker 1: this over and over and over. So don't tell me
Speaker 1: something's not going on. Something is going on. And that's
Speaker 1: why a d game. By the way, the bookies aren't stupid.
Speaker 1: They make the line that the other team is coming
Speaker 1: back every single time now because they know what's coming.
Speaker 1: You're a thousand percent right, Todd, You're exactly. I started
Speaker 1: looking at in game bedding trying to think if I
Speaker 1: could get an edge on it. They haven't already factored
Speaker 1: in the lines are way too short for these comebacks,
Speaker 1: and and and that Phil Aladelphia, are you kidding me?
Speaker 1: But but there was also bad spots. The you know,
Speaker 1: he wasn't even close to the first down mark. He
Speaker 1: was just watch Mountain West College football. And the guys
Speaker 1: they actually called when I was gonna, I told Gil
Speaker 1: about this. They called the answer to the play wasn't
Speaker 1: even a possibility. One possibility was either a catch, one
Speaker 1: possibility was an interception. Incomplete was not a possibility because
Speaker 1: the ball never touched the ground. They called what incomplete?
Speaker 1: It was unbelievable. The ball was the ball had never
Speaker 1: even came close to touching the ground. It was there's
Speaker 1: only one possibility. One team got it or the other
Speaker 1: team got it. The random giving of the first down
Speaker 1: when somebody against nine yards instead of the guy is
Speaker 1: walking in the ball and he's a yard short of
Speaker 1: the stick and he's telling them to move the stick
Speaker 1: behind the college football it's an epidemic because no one complains,
Speaker 1: They just let it just keep going. In Oregon State
Speaker 1: Washington game I lost because of fourth and one. The
Speaker 1: guy was so clearly over the line. It was ridiculous
Speaker 1: and they called nope, nope, sorry, we gotta come and
Speaker 1: do a measure. The zig zag spotting is we'll just
Speaker 1: drive you did you see you see the end of
Speaker 1: Oregon State Oregon like Friday night after Thanksgiving? Oh my god,
Speaker 1: they missed the off sides. They missed him getting in
Speaker 1: on second do they missed him getting in on second
Speaker 1: day and thank god Oregon State scored on four. Would
Speaker 1: have been one of the worst robberies. Brad Allen was
Speaker 1: also terrible on Monday night with the clock. You know
Speaker 1: this handicap because I'm betting end game totals, so I
Speaker 1: couldn't bet end game undernoing. He wasn't winding the clock correctly.
Speaker 1: He does this all the time. They have a running play,
Speaker 1: there's offensive holding, it's a running clock. They accept that.
Speaker 1: They moved it back ten yards as soon as they
Speaker 1: spotted the ball on that hash, she's supposed to wind.
Speaker 1: He waited till the team was at the line and
Speaker 1: it would be only two seconds run off of the
Speaker 1: They should have got twelve seconds off. The whole last
Speaker 1: drive shouldn't have happened. He had. He never ran off.
Speaker 1: You're you're a pent right. They screw it up. By
Speaker 1: the way, how about yesterday when when I knew what
Speaker 1: was gonna happen. My mom and me were watching the
Speaker 1: Steeler game, and I'm like, Okay, here's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 1: The Ravens are gonna run the ball and then it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a fire drill because they don't have any
Speaker 1: time outs left and they're gonna have to come to
Speaker 1: the line. The Steelers are gonna be laying on top
Speaker 1: of them, trying not to let them get the playoffs.
Speaker 1: It's exactly what happened. It was unbelievable. They go into
Speaker 1: and they didn't call anything. And by the way, I
Speaker 1: was so happy because I had Ravens under team total
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half. But it was really unfair to
Speaker 1: the Ravens. I mean what you could see what they're doing.
Speaker 1: They're laying on top of them intentionally, by the way,
Speaker 1: I hit the first half under because of that, just
Speaker 1: laying on top of them. Just unbelievable delay and and
Speaker 1: John Harpo screaming his head off and they're like, I'm sorry, sorry,
Speaker 1: trapped on the court and they just kill They do
Speaker 1: the same thing with the with the with the you
Speaker 1: know how they do when the guy stands in because
Speaker 1: this team got to replace their players and the other
Speaker 1: team gets to replace their players because they did substitutions
Speaker 1: in the their team gets to do substitutions. And they
Speaker 1: have that one ref who stands over the ball and
Speaker 1: waits while the play clock is going down and down
Speaker 1: and down, and and the quarterbacks like, what are we
Speaker 1: gonna do? We're gonna get a delay a game because
Speaker 1: it's stupid fat guys running off the field, the nose tackle.
Speaker 1: It's like the refereeing is just it's beyond beyond. So Chris,
Speaker 1: you've opened a can of worms and it was a
Speaker 1: good game. Good, which is alright, Todd. Number two, my
Speaker 1: number two is going to be your Detroit Lions. And
Speaker 1: the reason I'm going to take your Detroit Lions is
Speaker 1: because I have one team with a quarterback and I
Speaker 1: have another team without a quarterback. Now, we've seen in
Speaker 1: the National Football League this past week where a lot
Speaker 1: of people don't know this, but the analytics say, if
Speaker 1: you don't have a quarterback, you probably can't win the game.
Speaker 1: That's what the analytics say. Most people thought with hint,
Speaker 1: and they could probably win the game at wake Forest quarterback,
Speaker 1: but no, it turns out the analytics say, if you
Speaker 1: don't have a quarterback, you may not be able to
Speaker 1: win the game. That's sort of what happened to the Ravens.
Speaker 1: Also yesterday, r G three was not exactly a quarterback.
Speaker 1: How did you get a hamstring injury, then not have
Speaker 1: a hamstring injury, then have a handsty Every every Washington
Speaker 1: fan watched that. By the way, what a glorious year was.
Speaker 1: We love RG three for life. But after his injuries,
Speaker 1: that kind of ship happened all the time. Pardon my French,
Speaker 1: right like it would be he would fall on his face,
Speaker 1: he told so you Actually, when he had to hand me,
Speaker 1: I was like, oh, he's done. Oh he came back
Speaker 1: to the next play. And then that's the one that
Speaker 1: put him out when he dropped back in his leg
Speaker 1: kind of gave out. Was the weird. It's like, he's
Speaker 1: just old, get him out of there. I love himself. Anyways,
Speaker 1: it turns out having a quarterback maybe part of an
Speaker 1: important part of the football game. So the Troy Lions,
Speaker 1: I get a quarterback. The Chicago Bears, I'm not really
Speaker 1: sure I have a quarterback there, So I'll take the
Speaker 1: team with the quarterback plus the three. So give me
Speaker 1: the lines. Okay. I listened to the Lions podcast this
Speaker 1: morning about one of the beat writers and he expects
Speaker 1: uh some so the attitude change it. He says, the
Speaker 1: whole locker room is much more carefree and and and
Speaker 1: breathing easily. And he commented that the stafford just looks
Speaker 1: so much more relaxed. The whole key on that game
Speaker 1: is gonna be uh and swift. That's why. That's why
Speaker 1: I said, because you don't know who's playing, you don't
Speaker 1: have goladays In or swift or I also agree with
Speaker 1: what Chris is saying. I read a whole article about
Speaker 1: Darryl Bevil. They're all excited now because Darryl Bevil is
Speaker 1: the coach and now we got rid of the evil
Speaker 1: Darth Darth Vader Patricia and everything. So you know, I'm
Speaker 1: getting three points and the other team doesn't really have
Speaker 1: a quarterback might get Matt Patricia's final record in Detroit
Speaker 1: twenty nine and one. Jim Caldwells before him was thirty
Speaker 1: six and twenty eight. G M. Bob Quinn also fired
Speaker 1: his mark under his tenure over five seasons, twelve games
Speaker 1: under five? Is that good? Should bring back Wayne Fons.
Speaker 1: Wayne Fons was the greatest Portuguese head coach in the
Speaker 1: history of the NFL. I don't know he didn't get
Speaker 1: him to an NFC championship. Isn't the the outfits still
Speaker 1: involved there in Detroit? They can't get funds back in.
Speaker 1: I was at the NFC Championship where nothing to a
Speaker 1: mediocre red Yeah, only Aaron Shots is greatest team of
Speaker 1: all time. Three. I was in RFK Stadium, Theater of Thrills,
Speaker 1: Theater of thrills, Chris number three? Your last one? Did
Speaker 1: you do? I did two at once. Yeah. Uh, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with I'm gonna go against everybody else and
Speaker 1: go with the New Orleans Saints. Oh going against the market, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm going I'm going against the market. Going against the
Speaker 1: market doesn't scare me too often. Although I lost last week,
Speaker 1: uh the Colts, But that was COVID uh injury related.
Speaker 1: But what number do you have guilt for that game?
Speaker 1: Because I have it all over the place. I have
Speaker 1: three reduced juice two and a half extra juice two
Speaker 1: and a half minus twenty. Yeah, we'll give him the
Speaker 1: two and it doesn't matter. But I like the you know,
Speaker 1: the Saints are coming off that you know quote, you know,
Speaker 1: lackluster performance against Denver, but hey, that was their strategy,
Speaker 1: was that their strategy was don't mess it up. Don't
Speaker 1: mess it up. Let's be all vanilla. I watched uh
Speaker 1: Hill in the first half of the previous game and
Speaker 1: I said, boy, this guy is just awful. You know,
Speaker 1: I tweeted it out. I go, this guy, this, this
Speaker 1: guy is not gonna make it. And uh he straightened up,
Speaker 1: he got comfortably at a monster second half and they
Speaker 1: did well, um, amazingly enough. I chart every week of
Speaker 1: the season with Green or Brown on on how a trend,
Speaker 1: how a team trends performance wise. I have one downgrade
Speaker 1: the entire season for the Saints somehow, some way, Wow,
Speaker 1: they improve every single week getting players yeah and so.
Speaker 1: And when you really look at the Saints the entire season,
Speaker 1: they played without Breeze, or they played without Thomas, or
Speaker 1: they played without Kamara. So they're always missing somebody and
Speaker 1: they're getting better and and I have them ranked like
Speaker 1: the number sixth team offensively. They almost have it set
Speaker 1: up that when Breeze does come back, it'll be the
Speaker 1: well rested Drew Brees right, it will be like a
Speaker 1: great thing at that moment for him. I I you know,
Speaker 1: and then we're talking about another situation where you're buying
Speaker 1: high you know Atlanta, you know Rommed and and you
Speaker 1: know what, Atlanta is not garbage. They're they're rated. Uh,
Speaker 1: they've done very well since the coaching change. I have
Speaker 1: them rated in the middle of the pack, probably fifteen
Speaker 1: sixte believe it or not, which is higher than what
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people would think they are. Uh,
Speaker 1: they're doing the same thing they did last season, and
Speaker 1: they're in they're ending well, they liked this coach, they're
Speaker 1: playing hard. Uh, they get bit by the injury bug
Speaker 1: and they're probably and they're gonna get everybody back, or
Speaker 1: at he's gonna be back for his mediocrity and uh
Speaker 1: Ridley's supposed to be an a limited snap count and
Speaker 1: uh um uh what receiver forgot his name? Julio Jones? Yeah, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, you know he's going to probably play until
Speaker 1: he gets, you know, touched, and then he'll be out again.
Speaker 1: So ah, but their defense is better, Chris, have you
Speaker 1: noticed that Atlanta's defense has gotten a lot better as
Speaker 1: the season has gone along. I don't know if you've
Speaker 1: noticed or if you if you think that's the case,
Speaker 1: but I think their defense has gotten better. No, it
Speaker 1: is pretty good and uh um, and that's how they
Speaker 1: have such a you know, a decent rating for me,
Speaker 1: I'm looking it up on my sheet right now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Atlanta I have is uh like the number fourteen or
Speaker 1: my eyes are out of focus, was like number fourteen defense.
Speaker 1: Fifteen defense. You'd never you know, associated Atlanta with a
Speaker 1: good defense, and you know, I believe it or not.
Speaker 1: Offensively they're worse usually each other way around. So that's
Speaker 1: what I right, I said, I said to Gil, I said,
Speaker 1: Maddie boiling hot water. I don't call him Maddie anymore.
Speaker 1: I call him Maddie boiling hot water because he is
Speaker 1: not that good anymore. It's it's Atlanta is like switching
Speaker 1: their thing. They used to be an offensive team with
Speaker 1: no defense. Now they're becoming more of a defensive team
Speaker 1: with no offense. There's a couple of teams like that.
Speaker 1: By the way, Seattle's defense, which we've been planning all
Speaker 1: year quietly getting better as well, exactly right now and
Speaker 1: then just to finish. New Orleans defense has been just
Speaker 1: a monster these past uh past weeks. And then that's
Speaker 1: probably why the they metrical metrically keep on getting stronger
Speaker 1: on my charts, is that defense has been the best
Speaker 1: by far over the last six or seven weeks. Okay,
Speaker 1: New Orleans picked number three, Mikey, Mike Pale, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go Colts over in this game that you picked the
Speaker 1: Colts with the Texans. Yeah, this was an under team
Speaker 1: to start the year, the Colts, and now we've seen
Speaker 1: in both games with tennessee a ton of a ton
Speaker 1: of points on the board. Obviously, the Texans are talented
Speaker 1: and the Sean without a rinning game is gonna have
Speaker 1: to throw the ball a heck of a lot, So
Speaker 1: I don't see the clock stopping a lot in this game.
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers is usually good for two touchdowns and one
Speaker 1: or two picks, which inevitably leads to points on both sides.
Speaker 1: I really thought this game would be closer to fifty
Speaker 1: three and a half or fifty four. I think there's
Speaker 1: some value with fifty one, and that's where I'm gonna land.
Speaker 1: I mean, I have written down here Bills Bill's minus
Speaker 1: one I just think that Nick Mullins is you know,
Speaker 1: he might have you know, played his greatest game as
Speaker 1: a forty nine er last week. And you know, the
Speaker 1: forty niners. On defense, they still come to play. But
Speaker 1: offensively they are very, very very challenged. I mean, they
Speaker 1: they really don't have a lot with this nick with
Speaker 1: Nick Mullins, and I don't I'm not a big fan
Speaker 1: of their offensive And of course the coach is fantastic,
Speaker 1: don't get me wrong, and he did everything he had
Speaker 1: to do to get them that w after almost gave
Speaker 1: away the game on the fumble touchdown. And uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I just think the Bills. The Bills are a solid
Speaker 1: football team. You know, they come, they come to play
Speaker 1: every week. Offensively, I haven't been as impressed with their defense. Um,
Speaker 1: although it seems to be improving a little bit. They
Speaker 1: played real well in the first half last week against
Speaker 1: the Chargers. UM, I don't see why the Bills can't
Speaker 1: stomp on Nick Mullins and then just do their regular,
Speaker 1: you know, offensive normalcy against a pretty decent San Francisco team.
Speaker 1: All I have to do is win the game. Give
Speaker 1: me the Bills minus one, all right, the Bill, The
Speaker 1: Bills get back Milano, the key linebacker on that team too,
Speaker 1: the h Todd. What do you got for the Green
Speaker 1: Bay Packers? What's that number? I have? Eight and a half? Nine,
Speaker 1: eight and a half nine? Yeah, um, all right, I
Speaker 1: have to say a half. Okay, eight and a half
Speaker 1: it is Listen. I don't want to make a deal.
Speaker 1: I don't want to. I don't wanna, you know, as
Speaker 1: a regular thing, lay eight and a half in games,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna lay the eight and a half here
Speaker 1: with the Green Bay Packers. I just the Eagles. I
Speaker 1: said on Primetime Action with Matt Brown the other night
Speaker 1: when he was picking Philadelphia in the in the Cleveland game,
Speaker 1: and he's like, oh, they're getting all these players back.
Speaker 1: And I'm not picking on that because I was with him,
Speaker 1: but I did say to him before that game was
Speaker 1: Cleveland beats Philly. Here, can we just annoint Philadelphia as
Speaker 1: the team we should never ever bet again, because they
Speaker 1: they will, they stink, they will disappoint you within a drive.
Speaker 1: You're like, I can't believe I've been on this team
Speaker 1: green Bay that game against Chicago, and I know it
Speaker 1: with Chicago. But Aaron Rodgers is in complete control of everything. Happening.
Speaker 1: Even Chris collins Worth during that broadcast was like, I
Speaker 1: don't know how he knew, Like Rogers was calling out Zoro,
Speaker 1: He's calling out things on the defense. Even Chris collins
Speaker 1: was like, I have no idea how he was able
Speaker 1: to tell that that was gonna happen. But whatever it was,
Speaker 1: it happened. Uh. I'll take Aaron Rodgers here and give
Speaker 1: the eight and a half, no problem. The weather should
Speaker 1: be good. It's not a weather game. Um. But I
Speaker 1: think Philly's the worst team in the NFC East, I
Speaker 1: really do. I think Washington has a better defense than
Speaker 1: the Giants. Have played a lot of close games this year.
Speaker 1: Dallas without Deck Maybe I don't know, maybe I stepped
Speaker 1: a little to it. But Carson Wentz just like r
Speaker 1: G three. The Carson Wentz RG three comparison for me
Speaker 1: is they were both so good before injuries. After their injuries,
Speaker 1: not only were they physically limited, but something happened to
Speaker 1: their mechanics and there their fundamentals. And Carson Wentz holds
Speaker 1: the ball way too long. When he's not holding the ball,
Speaker 1: his offensive line is letting him down. They're not gonna
Speaker 1: put Jalen Hurts in because Carson Wentz has this horribly
Speaker 1: egregious contract. So they're gonna shove Carson Wentz down our
Speaker 1: throats for at least another year. Jalen Hurt stinks too.
Speaker 1: Who how do we know Jalen Hurts a good We
Speaker 1: don't They overdrafted him a green Bay minus a leave
Speaker 1: it at you saw they put Jalen Hurts and there
Speaker 1: was a penalty, and then on second down he completed
Speaker 1: a pass I like a six yard out and then
Speaker 1: they put third down specialist Carson Wentz back, who was
Speaker 1: three for his last But what what was that? Well, again,
Speaker 1: it gets back to his his his contract structure. I mean,
Speaker 1: since you asked, I don't know if on a board
Speaker 1: people with this, but his contract is such that they
Speaker 1: can't do anything with him. By the way he is
Speaker 1: lasting interceptions last and fumbles, last in sacks now with
Speaker 1: forty six, last in completion percentage, second of last yards
Speaker 1: per attempt, worst off target percentage, on and on and
Speaker 1: on and on. But the deal is they had minus
Speaker 1: four yards in the first quarter. Uh in that game
Speaker 1: against Seattle, they went three and out on their first
Speaker 1: five drives, didn't get a first down until Wentz ran
Speaker 1: for twenty yards with five minutes left in the first half,
Speaker 1: ten fumbles, forty six sacks, the most in the NFL
Speaker 1: by eleven. By the way, but here's the deal. Thirty
Speaker 1: four point six seven million cap hit next year seventy
Speaker 1: five million cap decreased because of financial losses from the pandemic.
Speaker 1: You can't cut him until after next year, and so
Speaker 1: you won't get much channing yards. By the way, Also,
Speaker 1: if you're doing a lot of in game betting, you
Speaker 1: should know Carson Wentz is approaching j Cutler esque status.
Speaker 1: Yea for one of the greatest back door touchdown guys
Speaker 1: of all time. This week I thought he wasn't good
Speaker 1: to get it, and he even got it this week
Speaker 1: on ridiculous Hail Mary. But it seems like fourth quarter
Speaker 1: under five minutes to go down by more than two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is your boy. Jay Cutler used to do
Speaker 1: it and put up all the numbers and you had
Speaker 1: to play those in games. Uh, same thing with the Eagles.
Speaker 1: No excellence, no excuse for people who had the Seahawks
Speaker 1: minus six and a half pre flop. But what about
Speaker 1: the people who had the Seahawks minus six and a
Speaker 1: half after getting to see the Eagles for a quarter
Speaker 1: and a half, I have simply I have sympathy for
Speaker 1: those people because and then how about the people are screaming,
Speaker 1: why is Doug Peterson going for two after he scores
Speaker 1: a touchdown down fourteen? Because he always does. We've been
Speaker 1: through this um billion times. The math shows you have
Speaker 1: a better chance. Now. If you don't believe me, go
Speaker 1: to Google. Look it up. If you u understand the math,
Speaker 1: then just retire from life and retire from gambling too,
Speaker 1: because if you don't understand the math, you shouldn't be gambling.
Speaker 1: Look at your web gambling. It's looking to the right.
Speaker 1: It's very disconcerting. Look at your webcam, so I mean,
Speaker 1: we're see you looking off to the right. Who are
Speaker 1: you preaching to to the imaginary people that don't understand
Speaker 1: math here in the United States of America? And there
Speaker 1: are a lot of them. They're right there over there.
Speaker 1: You don't see them right there. There's thousands, millions of
Speaker 1: them who don't understand basic math. Math is hard, but
Speaker 1: Christmas even harder. You know what, don't you know? It's
Speaker 1: it's funny that you said that, Chris, because I can't
Speaker 1: tell you how many people who just regular people you
Speaker 1: try to explain the concept of the point spread to
Speaker 1: and they can't really grasp it right away. And you're
Speaker 1: just like you seriously don't understand what minus five and
Speaker 1: a half means, Like I you just it's that hard
Speaker 1: for you, Like You're right, math, people just can't get math.
Speaker 1: And it's why are you know the world is the
Speaker 1: way it is Because if you can't understand ratios, you
Speaker 1: can't understand life. That's the problem with the world. Wait
Speaker 1: till baseball season and you blow people's minds with money.
Speaker 1: Lines really loses that really makes them lose their crap
Speaker 1: on that. That's really a two. I'm going nuts with
Speaker 1: the soccer learning the half three point two five, three
Speaker 1: points point seven five, and then then you've got the
Speaker 1: three ways. I mean, it's it's glorious. It's glorious. Let's
Speaker 1: do the teasers so we can get to the survivor
Speaker 1: the final two questions. Favorite teaser to like Teaser of
Speaker 1: the week, Chris, I am going to call an audible
Speaker 1: because and hopefully this will be have some benefit because
Speaker 1: I the only teasers I like involve road teams and
Speaker 1: uh as everybody should know you should not be teasing
Speaker 1: road teams road favorites down. Um, so I obviously love
Speaker 1: the Raiders and I don't like anything else, so U,
Speaker 1: but I wanted to look something up because I was
Speaker 1: thinking a lot of people do these three team teasers
Speaker 1: hard one, so I wanted to take a look at it.
Speaker 1: And by coincidence, this week is the perfect week to
Speaker 1: show this example. Um, you know, a popular idea is
Speaker 1: taking these ten point favorites down to pick them, and
Speaker 1: you for that, you're going to pretty much lay one thirty.
Speaker 1: So but let's look at the situation. If you laid Miami,
Speaker 1: which is the eleven and a half, and you laid Minnesota,
Speaker 1: which is minus ten and a half. And when I
Speaker 1: looked at uh and when you and you look at
Speaker 1: the Green Bay minus nine, if you just parlay those,
Speaker 1: you get the pick, you get extra you get extra points,
Speaker 1: and you lay lower Juice minus one. So I thought
Speaker 1: people might appreciate if you're considering, if you're one of
Speaker 1: those three team teaser people that like to do those,
Speaker 1: take a look at these any lines and and and
Speaker 1: and and just flinched them in and see what your
Speaker 1: money lines are gonna pay. You'll pay, you'll pay pennies
Speaker 1: less and you'll get a few extra points in the process.
Speaker 1: And on that same three team parlay, if you wanted
Speaker 1: to just throw in Kansas City, now you're laying even
Speaker 1: money there, you go Seattle. Seattle's minus ten to. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it wasn't on the board for me to uh to
Speaker 1: actually plot it in so but it would be very careful.
Speaker 1: I don't remember a week, and I might be prisoner
Speaker 1: of the moment. I don't remember a week where we've
Speaker 1: had eight out of fifteen games with such massive spreads,
Speaker 1: but that that's what's gonna make the survivor and the
Speaker 1: which team is the most likely to let you down.
Speaker 1: A discussion coming up based on what Chris was just saying.
Speaker 1: What I've had a lot of fun with is DraftKings
Speaker 1: has alternate lines that you can are laid together so
Speaker 1: you can actually create your own custom made teaser. So
Speaker 1: for instance, on most teasers you have to pick seven
Speaker 1: points or six and a half points or ten points
Speaker 1: like on the super teaser that Chris was just talking about.
Speaker 1: If you go if on DraftKings, what you can do
Speaker 1: is you can make like let's say you need on
Speaker 1: one team you want to you want to move the
Speaker 1: line eight and a half, so just go to the
Speaker 1: alternate line and pick that one. And then on another team,
Speaker 1: you only want to do four and a half or
Speaker 1: seven and a half or whatever it is to get
Speaker 1: you over the key numbers, and then you parlay them
Speaker 1: all together you create what what basically an effect is
Speaker 1: a custom made teaser, which is really a lot of fun. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was one thing I was going to mention. Also
Speaker 1: is rather than looking at teasers, I don't tease often.
Speaker 1: I think I tease once every three weeks or so
Speaker 1: two or three weeks. But what I do like to
Speaker 1: do is look at the alternate line. I would much
Speaker 1: rather kind of go against myself and and and and
Speaker 1: basically sell back points and get some really nice plus
Speaker 1: money on those propositions. So I'd rather do that than
Speaker 1: deal with the teasers. So it's just something to look at.
Speaker 1: And and you can find UH an app that you're
Speaker 1: familiar with promoting, and many other are smaller shops. They
Speaker 1: just put these alternate lines out in the morning and
Speaker 1: they never move them. You know, they've got they put
Speaker 1: such low limits on it. You're only getting at three
Speaker 1: hundred dollars on these things. Uh you know, generally, but
Speaker 1: a lot of these small books will just leave those.
Speaker 1: Check those in the last thirty minutes, the last five
Speaker 1: minutes before a game start, and you can find some
Speaker 1: real value. There. Were you referring to the Manscape tapp
Speaker 1: or something else? No, no, no kidding, okay, uh no,
Speaker 1: I I appreciate it. Again. The Stanford Wong teasers, the
Speaker 1: ones that Chris alluded to the very first part. Again,
Speaker 1: the historically solid teaser legs in terms of the six pointers.
Speaker 1: Are these short dogs teased up through the three and
Speaker 1: the seven, and the home a favorite above a seventies
Speaker 1: down through the seven or three. This is a weird
Speaker 1: home road year though. Uh So, it's a little quirky
Speaker 1: this year. But h I appreciate the thank you for
Speaker 1: the three team ten point versus money line par lay
Speaker 1: analysis on that. People should know that who like the
Speaker 1: three team ten pointers? Mikey, your favorite two leg teaser
Speaker 1: picked the Packer, tease him down to two and a half,
Speaker 1: and then I'm going to take the Lions up to nine, okay,
Speaker 1: Todd green Bay minus he's saying green Bay minus, tune
Speaker 1: and the Lions He's going to nine, okay. So I
Speaker 1: am going with the Lions up to nine because of
Speaker 1: the same reason that I talked about in the In
Speaker 1: the regular game, also, when your Bears team, it's hard
Speaker 1: to win a game, let alone win by nine. That
Speaker 1: would be very difficult for an offensively challenged football team.
Speaker 1: So I'll take Detroit plus the nine, and I will
Speaker 1: take the Raiders down to minus two. Um. By the way,
Speaker 1: I think Jon Gruden has done a very good job
Speaker 1: this year. I just don't like his decision making on
Speaker 1: fourth and one at the thirty three yard line. That's
Speaker 1: the only problem I have with him. Otherwise, I think
Speaker 1: he's really done an excellent job. So I'll take the
Speaker 1: Raiders minus too. By the way, I think we round
Speaker 1: robin our teaser legs Almo, Green Bay and the Raiders,
Speaker 1: even though the Raiders again fit you know, don't fit
Speaker 1: the bill with the routine, but those are my two.
Speaker 1: Green Bay down to two and a half, Raiders down
Speaker 1: to basically have to beat the Jets. I think one
Speaker 1: of the other things you need to look at with
Speaker 1: teasers is you either get in at the beginning of
Speaker 1: the week or you get in at the end of
Speaker 1: the week. Uh, you have to have some sort of
Speaker 1: teaser anticipation. Um, if you if you don't know where
Speaker 1: lines are gonna go, now you're already potentially losing value
Speaker 1: that you don't even realize you're gonna lose because you
Speaker 1: can pretty much tell where a lot of the lines
Speaker 1: are going to be going. So you know, sometimes you're
Speaker 1: gonna want to wait till the end of the week.
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, I've got a friend that's dying
Speaker 1: for them for New England and become favored by one
Speaker 1: and a half so he can have the seven and
Speaker 1: a half charger and he's gonna go ballistic on that.
Speaker 1: So just an example, we've all had those moments. If
Speaker 1: that would just check up, a half boy would do this.
Speaker 1: All right, So we've got the final two questions, and
Speaker 1: the first question will double as the survivor discussion. So
Speaker 1: I to the other question first. We'll finish with Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: all right. So the other one is if we're in
Speaker 1: a bizarro world and we had to bet every one
Speaker 1: of these games, you were forced to bet aside and
Speaker 1: every one of those games, but you wanted one free pass,
Speaker 1: what's the game you want? No part of Chris, I
Speaker 1: don't know why. I just don't want my metrics come
Speaker 1: out at exactly and a half of the Packers and
Speaker 1: in these Eagles are such pieces of crap and have underperformed.
Speaker 1: I'm just fearful someday they're going to show up or
Speaker 1: and and I and I have the bad memories of
Speaker 1: how poorly the Packers did against Jacksonville. H Packers have
Speaker 1: a history of slipping up sometimes, you know, all teams do.
Speaker 1: But in my personal head, it's just I don't want
Speaker 1: anything to do with it. Mikey, I don't want any
Speaker 1: part of the Patriots Chargers game because I just think
Speaker 1: the Chargers are such so much more talented, really are,
Speaker 1: But this coaching, it's just hard to pull the trigger
Speaker 1: with Anthony Lynn. So and I just I can't back
Speaker 1: to Patriots either because they're just not as good as
Speaker 1: a team. But that that doesn't mean they can't win
Speaker 1: this game, So I can't it. Here's a question. Is
Speaker 1: this the first coach where you you literally see every
Speaker 1: game is two to three points off just because of
Speaker 1: the coaching. And I mean that, sir, how Chris? How
Speaker 1: can he not learn anything from week to week? Right,
Speaker 1: You're allowed to make a mistake, You're allowed to make two.
Speaker 1: Maybe he repeats him, but how how can you not
Speaker 1: learn anything? He takes the time out at the end
Speaker 1: of the half so he can't throw it. I talked
Speaker 1: about that one too, talking about oh my god. The
Speaker 1: run though might have been the Kuda girl. I still
Speaker 1: think that handoff against the Bucks was the Hall of Famer.
Speaker 1: R G three couldn't do that, couldn't do the read option.
Speaker 1: He's been so far, and then they want to do
Speaker 1: a read option from the six yard line when they
Speaker 1: could have knelt down. They listen. There's no bad talking
Speaker 1: RG three on this. I'm just saying it's not an
Speaker 1: easy play. With the quarterback pulling it out of the belly,
Speaker 1: there's a high risk. There's r G three with a
Speaker 1: fumble on that one. Um Todd Well, it's the crowbar
Speaker 1: portion of the pro grammed. We're not gonna want to
Speaker 1: touch the Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. If I don't sing
Speaker 1: this song, they get mad. The Miami Dolphins. They're getting
Speaker 1: better every week, but I don't want to lay eleven
Speaker 1: n F. You know, if I if I wasn't winning
Speaker 1: with them every week, i'd hate that song. That's actually
Speaker 1: a pretty good pick. That was my number two, but
Speaker 1: Detroit Chicago is my first, just because if it's no
Speaker 1: Gola Day, he really means a lot to that team.
Speaker 1: If they don't have him, let alone the other guys,
Speaker 1: that's not a good football team. If they have him,
Speaker 1: it's a totally different story. So I want no part
Speaker 1: of that. Currently, on the Thursday, the Bears are playing
Speaker 1: hinting at quarterback Kendall hinting one for nine. All right,
Speaker 1: let's talk survivor before we get so, let's just do
Speaker 1: it this way. Let's go back to Thanksgiving first, Chris,
Speaker 1: what would you have done were you in a circus Survivor?
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, hopefully this reflects your Survivor
Speaker 1: pull at home. But Circus Cork this year, Mikey was
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving Day was its own week. It really was a
Speaker 1: great herd thinner. Now, had you known that the third
Speaker 1: game was going to get postponed, you probably wouldn't have done.
Speaker 1: We wouldn't have We thought you had six teams to
Speaker 1: choose from, not four. Would you do it again next year?
Speaker 1: What happens? Gil? If we get five thousand entries, we
Speaker 1: gotta make this harder to get through. We might have
Speaker 1: to put another wrink all day, right, must pick a
Speaker 1: prime time game I don't know it, or have tiebreakers
Speaker 1: at the end, and kind of like tear the payouts
Speaker 1: would a tiebreaker be though? Well, I still liked the
Speaker 1: total point differential level the eighteen winners you picked, Dude,
Speaker 1: I would lose. I would lose every time. I would
Speaker 1: lose every tiebreaker this year because I've had so many
Speaker 1: miracle wins. I've had like five. The one you referred
Speaker 1: to green Baby Jacksonville would be one of them. What
Speaker 1: would you have done? On face? And now we don't
Speaker 1: know who you would have played already, and we don't
Speaker 1: know what you would have still had to play, But
Speaker 1: at least Thanksgiving, you, like most of us, would have
Speaker 1: planned to have at least five of the six teams,
Speaker 1: if not all six teams still in your quiver. I
Speaker 1: will say this. The only people I say this on
Speaker 1: a numbers game at Visa earlier this week. The only
Speaker 1: people that I feel truly sorry for this year in
Speaker 1: Circus survivals, the people who had strategically saved Pittsburgh. Those
Speaker 1: people really did get the worst of it. Like that's
Speaker 1: a tough way because if and I know and people
Speaker 1: are like, well, you got through picking Houston. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: those and those people picked the wrong team. If they
Speaker 1: didn't get through, they maybe they picked Dallas, but that
Speaker 1: sucks because they had planned on it. It's horrible. I
Speaker 1: have remorse that I didn't enter for the you know,
Speaker 1: for the third time, because if I had known four
Speaker 1: people were gonna lose week, one would have to have
Speaker 1: been lost on the courts. I was one of my
Speaker 1: entries as well. And uh I did tweet out a
Speaker 1: warning the week before Thanksgiving, don't use your Dallas, minister,
Speaker 1: or don't use your Minnesota because I have Dallas better team.
Speaker 1: They were all very well, may win, and they did win.
Speaker 1: But Thursday was pretty It was only you had to
Speaker 1: look at it. It was not a handicapping week. You
Speaker 1: were wasting your time handicapping. You had to figure out
Speaker 1: where your best value was to win. You you have
Speaker 1: to decide am I playing your survivor or I may
Speaker 1: playing to win? How many times you heard me say
Speaker 1: that it's a misnamed game, right, so you know you
Speaker 1: have to play to win. Okay, And for example, last
Speaker 1: week I was piste or I would have been pissed
Speaker 1: if the Saints game had gone off the board. I
Speaker 1: don't want the half a point. I I want to
Speaker 1: play to be able to win a full point. That's aggressive.
Speaker 1: If you had more than one pick, why would you
Speaker 1: sacrifice one. You are sacrificing an opportunity to become powerful.
Speaker 1: So let's let's and let me just stop you right there.
Speaker 1: So there was if you had a multiple picks, and
Speaker 1: different people or groups did some had to, some had
Speaker 1: three entries left. You could do the most aggressive thing,
Speaker 1: which has put all your entries on one team. You
Speaker 1: could do the least aggressive things. These are just your options.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying which is best. You could do the
Speaker 1: least aggressive thing, which is to sacrifice and play the
Speaker 1: different side of one game, meaning sacrifice a you know,
Speaker 1: a Dallas versus a Washington and ensure that the other
Speaker 1: one will get through for three entry players. You could
Speaker 1: do it two and one. Whatever you want to do.
Speaker 1: But the hybrid play, which I think is what you're
Speaker 1: getting at here we'll see the hybrid play, which is
Speaker 1: not the most aggressive or the least aggressive, was take
Speaker 1: my two entries and play one team in one game
Speaker 1: and one team in another game. Yes, you had to,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, obviously if you really absolutely loved
Speaker 1: one of those teams. All Right, you go out with
Speaker 1: that team. I mean, you know the heartache of I
Speaker 1: wanted to take this team, and I really love that
Speaker 1: I handicapped it well and I've got you know, you know,
Speaker 1: mathematical foundation for this and metrics and i have insight information. Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: you take that team. But my perspective was it was
Speaker 1: just a math equation. Uh and and it's really simple,
Speaker 1: how do you want to advance and how will you
Speaker 1: be most powerful? You're talking about? Uh? Like with the
Speaker 1: Washington Dallas game, it's a coin flip. It was absolutely
Speaker 1: a coin flip game. You could have gotten. You know,
Speaker 1: it wasn't even you know, it was minus two, which
Speaker 1: is essentially a coin flip. So you have a coin
Speaker 1: flip game. And if you put your pick in with Washington,
Speaker 1: you you know for a fact everybody's on Dallas in
Speaker 1: that game, that's gonna be the game that has the
Speaker 1: most that would be the most pick game, hands down.
Speaker 1: You already know that everybody. If you did not know that,
Speaker 1: then something that was in fact the case they had
Speaker 1: of the two games. Here, figure out what the other
Speaker 1: people are doing and go the other way with the
Speaker 1: coin flip, because if the coin flip goes your way,
Speaker 1: you just knocked out a whole bunch of people. Yes
Speaker 1: you will, you get your your three times better off.
Speaker 1: Why would you want to advance with ninety people when
Speaker 1: you can advance with thirty said times On a numbers game,
Speaker 1: the object is not to survive, even though it's called survivor.
Speaker 1: The object is to win. You would be surprised how
Speaker 1: many people that we know that are otherwise sharp betters
Speaker 1: that don't get that. They don't get that well. And
Speaker 1: I felt bad because even the people that did sacrifice, um,
Speaker 1: they chose the wrong game. Five out of the six
Speaker 1: people use the Dallas Washington game. Yeah. Well, no, if
Speaker 1: you're going to pick a game, you take the game
Speaker 1: that's gonna have the fewest number of people. You know
Speaker 1: for a fact that the most people are gonna be
Speaker 1: on Dallas. And if Dallas wins, you sacrificed one of
Speaker 1: your entries to advance with the most popular pick. You know,
Speaker 1: and and and and I'm it's not easy to figure
Speaker 1: this stuff out. It's it's not that anybody did anything stupid.
Speaker 1: It's but it's what makes these games so fun to play, right,
Speaker 1: because there's so much to think about. There's it's just
Speaker 1: something years of experience and and and as as Todd says,
Speaker 1: it's game theory, and sometimes you have to throw out
Speaker 1: the handicapping. Yeah, I agree. What what you know? We
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago before Thanksgiving here on this podcast,
Speaker 1: we were railing against the people that we're going to
Speaker 1: go all in on one team that we didn't understand,
Speaker 1: Like I didn't understand that strategy. If you had two
Speaker 1: or three entries, I don't know if that was the
Speaker 1: time to do that. Now, seven people ended up getting through.
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure it was none of the ones that
Speaker 1: went all in on one team. I think it was
Speaker 1: people who did different hybrid stuff. Um. In the end,
Speaker 1: I ended up with Houston. And the only reason I
Speaker 1: ended up with Houston was the injury report on the lines.
Speaker 1: For me, the injury report made the pick for me. UM.
Speaker 1: So no, I appreciate that. So Thanksgiving was a complete
Speaker 1: Um was a was a fascinating thing to navigate through.
Speaker 1: And for those lucky enough to get through it, ninety
Speaker 1: did go down with the Dallas Cowboys. Um, you do
Speaker 1: have some hundred and three entries left Another person didn't submit, right,
Speaker 1: so week ten was the only week that everyone submitted.
Speaker 1: Crack asked made it. I was like, it's only one
Speaker 1: week that somebody didn't submit, And these were the expected
Speaker 1: value if all A hundred and three got to Let's say,
Speaker 1: let's say no one ever lost again the rest of
Speaker 1: the way, which obviously isn't gonna happen, but let's say
Speaker 1: it did. Twenty three thousand plus is the is the
Speaker 1: value of each of these pools with A two point
Speaker 1: three nine million, because Derek kicks in another mill so
Speaker 1: it's twenty three thousand plus right now. So when you
Speaker 1: don't submit, you're just essentially throwing that away at this point.
Speaker 1: By the way, I have nightmares about not submitting. I'm like,
Speaker 1: I can I need to go to California. Nope, can't
Speaker 1: do that. I'll be out of state. Last Saturday I
Speaker 1: jerked my head. I'm like, oh my god. Oh you know,
Speaker 1: I thought I was close. I thought I was at
Speaker 1: the deadline for some reason. But I turned in one
Speaker 1: of my circuit entries right at so close that I
Speaker 1: just vegged the higher powers let me get in my
Speaker 1: better because I had one horrible entry and I had
Speaker 1: one great one, and I go, just let me get
Speaker 1: the first one in. I don't even care if I
Speaker 1: can't get the second one in. And it was my
Speaker 1: watch at two fifty nine and I got the first
Speaker 1: one and I go who And I go, Okay, maybe
Speaker 1: I can get the second one. And it was like
Speaker 1: A maybe. He was like maybe I can't. And I
Speaker 1: did get the second one, and uh, Mike, he was
Speaker 1: you know at three oh one it locks out have three? Yeah,
Speaker 1: you really might watch seconds of the three minute and
Speaker 1: you had the guy a couple of weeks ago three
Speaker 1: oh eight pm with three entries. That was the email.
Speaker 1: He got knocked out, two Chargers and one Viking. Sorry buddy.
Speaker 1: The other big thing was this week, um people were saying,
Speaker 1: I can't believe ten people picked New Orleans and the
Speaker 1: New Orleans remember the Denver quarterbacks ended up getting scuttled.
Speaker 1: I was one of them. I was one of them.
Speaker 1: Now here's the thing. Here's what I say to everybody
Speaker 1: who who First, of all the people who are talking
Speaker 1: about this, most of them aren't playing the game. And
Speaker 1: the other people who are saying it are in the game.
Speaker 1: It might not be as good survivor players as they
Speaker 1: think they are would I don't know most of them
Speaker 1: are saying with the balls that it took or how
Speaker 1: stupid it was, but it was. I don't think it
Speaker 1: was stupid. It wasn't stupid at all. Wouldn't have done it.
Speaker 1: There was definitely enough and for me stupid to have
Speaker 1: played New Orleans because because the theory was that game
Speaker 1: could get postponed. And so what I'm what I explained
Speaker 1: to people is who who make that comment is it
Speaker 1: was neither ball Z's. It was neither ballsy nor stupid.
Speaker 1: It's actually a bunch of players who have played Survivor
Speaker 1: a million times more than they probably have and actually
Speaker 1: have it planned in a certain way. And our play
Speaker 1: is not to survive. Our play is to win. We
Speaker 1: actually like, like I said, a Mall Shaw might be
Speaker 1: better at this than you are. Is what I said
Speaker 1: on the radio yesterday. Maybe a mall Show actually is
Speaker 1: better at this than you are. Um, And I'll use
Speaker 1: them all as a proxy for the rest of us.
Speaker 1: We have we have it. We know who we played already,
Speaker 1: we know who we're going to play. So for those
Speaker 1: of us who played New Orleans, I can't speak for
Speaker 1: the others who did, but for those of us who
Speaker 1: played New Orleans, we were always going to play New Orleans.
Speaker 1: And by the way, and again I can't speak for
Speaker 1: the others, but it wasn't as wide of a choice
Speaker 1: as you might think. It was a binary choice in
Speaker 1: the end between New Orleans and the New York Giants.
Speaker 1: And so there's a bunch of us who there was
Speaker 1: no chance in hell we were going to lose with
Speaker 1: the Jets. By the way, the Bengals had the ball
Speaker 1: was the only game in it on a huge thing,
Speaker 1: and I had to heage it because I was like,
Speaker 1: I cannot believe that the Giants are gonna punt this ball.
Speaker 1: They had it at yard line win the game. That
Speaker 1: was the only game where any of the Jet the
Speaker 1: survivor picks was in jeopardy. I don't really believe the
Speaker 1: brow were in jeopardy. That was in jeopardy twenty yards
Speaker 1: and Cincinnati's kicking a field go to win the game.
Speaker 1: So if you if people understand that that was your
Speaker 1: choice and you were going New Orleans, and you had
Speaker 1: New Orleans planned the whole time, I'm not wavering off
Speaker 1: what I've had planned for months and risking the game
Speaker 1: on the Giants now after the fact, those same people
Speaker 1: want to say, you just don't want to admit you're lucky. No,
Speaker 1: you just don't want to admit that maybe you're not
Speaker 1: as good at this as a show. How do you
Speaker 1: handicap whether they're going to cancel the COVID game or not?
Speaker 1: How do you put a percentage on That's the other
Speaker 1: thing that those people don't understand. They don't understand that
Speaker 1: that game was never in jeopardy of being postponed. So
Speaker 1: that's after the fact what I'm saying, Even if they
Speaker 1: are saying that it was in jeopardy, how do you
Speaker 1: put a percentage on it? Well, that's the thing you can't.
Speaker 1: You can't so exactly, so how can they? Here's the
Speaker 1: Here's because those people don't have the humility gene. Here's
Speaker 1: the crux of the argument, I think is why guild
Speaker 1: you believe or Michael Barr, Lombardi or others believed that
Speaker 1: there was no chance that game would be postponed Because
Speaker 1: if you had been following COVID nineteen, you would see
Speaker 1: that the latest things that the NFL had been doing,
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford was in COVID nineteen reserve list. The context
Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger was in COVID nineteen reserve list. Those guys
Speaker 1: had to do a series of five negatives in a
Speaker 1: row before they were allowed to play previous games. If
Speaker 1: you've been paying attention to that, you realize that the
Speaker 1: NFL already had this overall umbrella thing where competitive advantages
Speaker 1: don't matter to them. This year don't matter. The Titans
Speaker 1: and the Ravens were breakouts and in the NFL. Now
Speaker 1: we can argue whether the NFL is full of crap
Speaker 1: with how they distinguished between the two things. That's another conversation.
Speaker 1: But the way that the NFL had handled it most recently,
Speaker 1: just because the Broncos thing happened too close to game time,
Speaker 1: it was consistent. The NFL doesn't care. It was totally consistent.
Speaker 1: By the way Vic Fangio has told you, it's totally consistent.
Speaker 1: Mark Loret, who won Super Bowls with the Broncho has
Speaker 1: told you it's totally consistent. So all of that is
Speaker 1: just people who who you know, don't really understand what
Speaker 1: the rules are. And by the but but yeah, but gil, so,
Speaker 1: what's the percentage they canceled? So that means you have
Speaker 1: seventy seven percent chance that you won the game. Do
Speaker 1: you so it's not either way, Yeah, it's it's It's
Speaker 1: just amazing to me that the people who chirped most
Speaker 1: about Survivor was saying this yesterdo other day. My biggest
Speaker 1: pet peeve is people who are not involved in Survivor.
Speaker 1: I have no idea what the what what has been
Speaker 1: played by certain people or what hasn't been Survivor is
Speaker 1: a very tough game to tell people that are in
Speaker 1: it when you're out of it, what you should or
Speaker 1: should not have played. The COVID thing is is sort
Speaker 1: of after the fact. The COVID thing is like people,
Speaker 1: oh you got lucky, did I Well, let me ask
Speaker 1: you this. Did you make your pick before the news
Speaker 1: of four quarterbacks being out? I had made the pick.
Speaker 1: I knew what I was picking all week, so that
Speaker 1: was not relevant to your pick. No, you always were
Speaker 1: going to be on the Saints. Yes, because because it
Speaker 1: was for me, it was Saints versus Giants, even had
Speaker 1: I known about that, Even if I put the pick
Speaker 1: in right at the buzzer, is what I'm saying, I
Speaker 1: was still going to pick the Saints. And I can't
Speaker 1: speak for the other nine people who book the Saints,
Speaker 1: But I'm guaranteeing you they're savvy enough that they were
Speaker 1: in the same situation I was. Those Giants were not.
Speaker 1: You really want to play the By the way, the
Speaker 1: Giants were available to everybody, one out of three people
Speaker 1: played them, only the Cincinnati Bengals not running the kickoff back,
Speaker 1: the game wouldn't have been anyway. I mean, I think
Speaker 1: that's an interesting conversation too. But I just think Survivor
Speaker 1: is one of these games where you had to have
Speaker 1: played at a bunch of times in your life to
Speaker 1: sort of understand there's a lot going on it. Don't
Speaker 1: want to but COVID is absolutely a layer. Don't get
Speaker 1: me wrong. I'm more scared of COVID things than losing
Speaker 1: the actual game. Would you agree that the worst way
Speaker 1: to be eliminated from Survivors by your tea the game
Speaker 1: that you picked being moved. Yeah. With the worst way
Speaker 1: that has been lost so far the Pittsburgh Steelers pickle
Speaker 1: who didn't get to pick Pittsburgh, or or what about
Speaker 1: the person that picked them and then the game was
Speaker 1: moved that picked them early? Well, that's interesting that person. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: that person. I wonder, I wonder what they were doing there,
Speaker 1: maybe they had to go somewhere. They claimed they believed
Speaker 1: that they could move, they could change their pick if
Speaker 1: a game was moved before the deadline. That was their claim,
Speaker 1: although it never has never has a Survivor picked been recently,
Speaker 1: nor any pick put on can be that's done on
Speaker 1: your on your phone mobile contest. What's with the one
Speaker 1: time except possible exception rule? Is that only a good question.
Speaker 1: It only applies to circule millions and if it was
Speaker 1: done on the count over the counter. Okay, so the
Speaker 1: app you're a card laid as a card play card. Yes,
Speaker 1: there's no possible way to even do it. And let
Speaker 1: me say it mechanically. The other thing about Survivor, I
Speaker 1: know everybody who's got an entry left ought to at
Speaker 1: this point feel pretty good about what they have left
Speaker 1: going on. But it's still a minefield COVID and you
Speaker 1: know it takes us one. Let's go back to the
Speaker 1: over under question. Yeah, your number was what twenty three
Speaker 1: and a half, We would go eighteen and oh, alf
Speaker 1: I said twenty nine and a half. What's your number, Chris,
Speaker 1: if you had to make a number, But I haven't
Speaker 1: looked at the matrix so I don't know, but I
Speaker 1: I I would think that people are going to get
Speaker 1: through and Week eighteen is going to be the toughest
Speaker 1: week obviously, Week seventeen and eighteen. I think eighteen for
Speaker 1: sure because sixteen and seventeen, and without seeing the matrix,
Speaker 1: I still think it's going to be lower. There's something
Speaker 1: can always you know, throw monkey wrench. Tod might be
Speaker 1: right because by that time your your lowest is in
Speaker 1: the twenties. Right, I'll go over over my number twenty
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I mean, it's really hard to
Speaker 1: know because right and first of all, we're assuming no minefield,
Speaker 1: no COVID. But imagine if you still get two week seventeen,
Speaker 1: you don't know what peace and motivated was motivated? Who's
Speaker 1: not well? At least you can hedge at that point though,
Speaker 1: you can. So you're the perfect guy. You're my first
Speaker 1: call if he gets to that, and you know everybody's picks,
Speaker 1: so you know how exactly. All right, So here's the
Speaker 1: deal with this week. And you called it earlier, Christ
Speaker 1: and this is the final thing we'll do on the show.
Speaker 1: Here you called it a free pass week. The eight
Speaker 1: of the fifteen games, we don't have a Dallas Do
Speaker 1: we have a Dallas Baltimore line anywhere seven and a half,
Speaker 1: it will be seven and a half. Probably, yeah, it's
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I guess seven and a half.
Speaker 1: You okay? So those are the games, So the games
Speaker 1: that are the biggest favorites, Which of the which are
Speaker 1: the big favorites is the most likely to lose? Out right?
Speaker 1: We don't have weeks like this where there are eight choices.
Speaker 1: Minnesota ten ten and a half point favorites against Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: Vegas eight and a half point favorites at the Jets currently. Uh,
Speaker 1: don't hold me to these exact numbers, but you get
Speaker 1: the idea of Miami eleven and a half point favorites
Speaker 1: hosting since Sinnati, uh, Seattle ten point favorites hosting the Giants,
Speaker 1: Green Bay eight and a half hosting the Eagles, Kansas
Speaker 1: City two touchdown favorites hosting the Broncos, and as we oh,
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh sorry Monday, Pittsburgh ten point favorites or eight and
Speaker 1: a half depending, I think it's eight and a half
Speaker 1: now hosting Washington, and then the Dallas Baltimore game, which
Speaker 1: I don't see consensus lines, but Tuesday, is Baltimore north
Speaker 1: of a touchdown? Who, Chris, in your opinion, is the
Speaker 1: most likely to lose outright? And why do you think
Speaker 1: this is a layup? Who would you? Who would you
Speaker 1: pick as a layup? You know what, I think it's
Speaker 1: just a free pass week. I would I would go
Speaker 1: with the Green Bay as the most likely to lose. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean most likely is the wrong way to phrase
Speaker 1: at least likely to win, least likely to win Green Bay. Okay, Mikey,
Speaker 1: I'm with Chris. It's really hard to pick one of these.
Speaker 1: But I would say Minnesota. I'm in Minnesota to You've
Speaker 1: got Kirk Cousins. Anything can happen with Kirk Cousins. I
Speaker 1: think it's Minnesota. It just feels a little off their defense.
Speaker 1: It's just you never know. I mean, they could give
Speaker 1: up thirty and you know if Cousins could be awful.
Speaker 1: Do you imagine if everybody gets through again this week?
Speaker 1: Not that you know a lot of people. The last
Speaker 1: big knockout was Cowboys seventy two people when the Cowboys
Speaker 1: went into Minnesota and one. It wouldn't surprise me to
Speaker 1: see the ninety on thanksgiving up the Cowboys too. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Jack Wires could win. What's that they could win if
Speaker 1: they got the first the new coach bomb they show
Speaker 1: up every week. The Redskins, By the way, the Redskins
Speaker 1: are not that bad and dealers, like you said before,
Speaker 1: are not as great as everyone thinks they are. That
Speaker 1: that could also happen at every There's a lot of
Speaker 1: teams where almost everybody has available to them this week.
Speaker 1: What do you think will be the most most people
Speaker 1: have used Miami? I think either in one of their
Speaker 1: two places. I don't have the numbers off the top
Speaker 1: of my head. Ah. I think people might save Seattle.
Speaker 1: It's tough. You'll see more vikings if you haven't got
Speaker 1: knocked out on the vikings already. Key, I'll close it
Speaker 1: by saying thank you to you and Derek. This is
Speaker 1: the most This has been the most fun contest ever. Seriously,
Speaker 1: I just don't want it to tear friendships apart. Yeah
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Seriously, there's so much passion
Speaker 1: involved in this. People involved, but people, people are really
Speaker 1: I mean take it to heart, and they're angry and
Speaker 1: people people should give other people credit and they don't
Speaker 1: know everything. How about that Shaw might be pretty good?
Speaker 1: Why do they give a ship's excellent children? Well they
Speaker 1: they might still be in two, they might still have
Speaker 1: one of their entries left. Oh my god, people are
Speaker 1: just you know, I'm just tired of people. I don't
Speaker 1: know if you've ever heard me say this before you,
Speaker 1: but this whole people idea, that worst invention ever, worst
Speaker 1: invention ever. Um, all right, thank you all, Las Vegas Chris,
Speaker 1: A lot of fun, dude. I could have this conversation
Speaker 1: with you every day. I love it for Las Vegas, Chris.
Speaker 1: And good luck is circumillion. Man. How look, how obsessed
Speaker 1: are you with this down the stretch? You're you're kind
Speaker 1: of calm about all this stuff. Yeah, you know, I'll
Speaker 1: give a piece of advice to to to everybody. I
Speaker 1: don't give it any thought until you'd be surprised at
Speaker 1: how little thought. I mean. I handicap all my games.
Speaker 1: And you don't watch much either, do you. I try
Speaker 1: not to watch. I I the Monday game was important
Speaker 1: to me because it made me nine and one between
Speaker 1: the two and I bet it and I watched that
Speaker 1: first half and it just nauseated me. So I just
Speaker 1: started working in the next week. But you know, you
Speaker 1: you have your games and you and you just work
Speaker 1: backwards and you you eliminate, you know, you eliminate what
Speaker 1: you absolutely will not use, and then you're not it's
Speaker 1: not that hard as you eliminate so and it it
Speaker 1: really takes you know, there are you know, there is
Speaker 1: contest strategy in determining what other people are using. Uh
Speaker 1: you know here last week I had one game that
Speaker 1: was on the consensus. The two weeks ago when it
Speaker 1: was the blood Bath, I didn't have a single one
Speaker 1: of those games, and I had a great week. So
Speaker 1: I'm also considering, well, what are going to be the
Speaker 1: popular games? Do I want to be on them? So
Speaker 1: I'm trying to win. I don't want to be on him.
Speaker 1: I need the game. So are you using the same
Speaker 1: picks on both enders? No? Clearly because you're different places.
Speaker 1: You're No. Last year I used entirely different picks and
Speaker 1: still ended up uh that close. And this year, how
Speaker 1: many are similar? Absolutely? None? I mean one of mine
Speaker 1: was in the wow. So dude, good luck the rest
Speaker 1: of the way. Thank you. We'll be in contact. Las Vegas,
Speaker 1: Chris for Mike for Las Vegas, Christopher Mike Palm, the
Speaker 1: vice president Operations and Circus Sports and god wish that.
Speaker 1: Thank you Todd, though he was frozen there. First kill Alexandra,
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Good luck with everything in Week thirteen,
Speaker 1: a TS survivor whatever you're betting on the