WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 13 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.200 Check it on, man, No down, man, there's good morning. 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:19.239 It's the Beating the Book podcast, Mega from the Day, 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:23.880 beautiful downtown Las Vegas, the day home for the megapod 0:00:24.000 --> 0:00:27.120 all year long. We couldn't be happier to do it. 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:29.400 It's Gil Alexander, by the way, Mike Palm, vice president 0:00:29.400 --> 0:00:32.479 of Operations for Circus Sports, alongside and made it possible 0:00:32.479 --> 0:00:34.680 here at the day. How you doing, Mike Gate, Good morning, Geod, 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.519 morning Todd, Good morning, Pods. You got your little beverage, 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.360 my Bahama breeze or whatever this is. Do you even 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:41.600 let them know that you want them to, just that 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:44.080 they see you and they just come back. There's there's 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:48.960 eye contact and a recognition nonverbal. We gotta talk a 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:52.520 bunch about survival. Todd Wishnev is up on the screen 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.480 from his mother's cork addic somewhere in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:58.760 the Steel Stiller's logo behind him. Leven and O. Yes, 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.920 that's in in honor of Wednesday afternoon, a National Football 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:07.400 League action which was tremendously interesting. Thankfully I was not 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:10.480 on the regular point spread to see the end of 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:16.640 that ridiculous NFL fixed line situation. But it went well 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:20.880 for me because I had under Robert Griffin passing yards 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:25.080 in the fandel in game props, which are just incredible. 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.800 If you haven't moved to Pennsylvania yet, you might as well, 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:30.120 because it's unbelievable. We don't need to list all our 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:33.120 bets for actually that that backdoor quarterback did take a 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:35.760 great day for me into a very mid day. So 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:39.400 I sympathize with people that can. I ask you a question, 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:44.520 because you've you've spoken glowingly about these endgame props. What 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:47.160 kind of limits do they take on these endgame props? 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:50.320 You know, I just started getting into them, so I 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.600 didn't even know they existed until a week or two ago. Um, 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:56.600 So I don't. I don't know the answer to that. Um, 0:01:56.720 --> 0:02:01.760 you know you certainly he hasn't challenged the limits yet. 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:03.600 But well, that's what I'm saying. Well, they take a 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:06.120 nickel on on these bets, and so you've answered, yeah, 0:02:06.160 --> 0:02:08.400 I mean they have so far. I think it also 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:12.280 depends on what happens, and I'm sure there's all kind 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.000 of high jinks involved in it, but the fact that 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:18.120 so far it exists is nice. That's great. Thank you, Todd. 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.120 Todd I'm gonna need more energy out of you today, 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:22.440 need more in than this. It's a little seems like 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:26.600 subdued Todd. Right now I want singing music, singing singing, 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:29.600 fight songs and that kind of thing. Later, Okay, yeah, 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.120 just worried about you. Now he goes starting. Now he 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:34.480 goes silent. The hair is much better this, I have 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:35.920 to tell you that. By the way, I want to 0:02:35.919 --> 0:02:39.079 thank you. This is the most supported podcast episode in 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:42.160 the history of podcasts. Behind in the control room over there, 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:49.200 Dez Karina, ken Book, Jason Miles, incredible, everybody working on 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:52.360 this episode. Everyone that works at Visa are rotating guests 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:55.200 kind enough to join us at the d today. I 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:58.280 hope to get into a big Survivor discussion because this 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:02.240 gentleman is a mult of a pole handicapping contest winner 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:04.320 here in Las Vegas. Been on the podcast many times before, 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:06.239 we just never had him in person. He's won the 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:08.840 Wind Casino one hundred thousand dollars single survivor back in 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:10.920 the day, the winner of the Palms NFL Challenge. Hey 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:13.960 remember the poems. Remember that was open uh winners stations 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:16.880 fifty two thousand dollar last man standing in college football 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:20.919 multiple playoff appearances and Golden Nugget contests, including first and 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:25.800 second regular season finishes, multiple private eliminations resulting in fistical success. 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.720 But here I mean station's NFL Last Man Standing contest 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:32.120 had ninety six hundred plus entries. UH and UH. Las 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:34.800 Vegas Chris had four of the remaining twenty live tickets 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:38.320 before his lucratively hedged knockout. When was that last year? 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:41.920 Last year twenty nineteen one thousand in the one million 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:45.760 pardon me? In the one million Dollar Circle millions appropriately 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:48.360 named at two entries. Last year he finished twentieth and 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.400 thirty one out of eighteen hundred and seventy five, and 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:54.480 then this year in the top two percent of thirty 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:57.960 one entries. Uh. Ladies and gentlemen, it's my buddy, Las 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:00.800 Vegas Chris. How are you doing, man, I'm doing pretty well. 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.200 Happy to be here in person. I'm so glad this. 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:06.040 You are the perfect guests. We were talking about this 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:08.320 little before. I was like, let me just get through 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:11.400 survivor long enough where I can have chriss on because 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:13.440 you have thoughts on and we don't do with them. 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:15.680 Now we can work up to it. Thoughts on what 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:19.719 what you would have done on Thanksgiving circus one quirky 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:22.839 rule where it's like Thanksgiving us its own week. Um, 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.240 because I'm curious how you would have played it, and 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:26.920 we'll get into that and all the all these other 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:28.680 sort of things you want to talk about. But you 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:30.920 are more qualified than anybody. And of course the other 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:32.320 thing that you do for people are like, oh, but 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:36.360 what about a t S three hundred plus documented place 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:40.240 since January and you're hitting in the NFL over six 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:45.800 exactly exactly sixty. That's unbelievable. By the way, it's a 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:49.560 lot of places January. That's ti vo am. I worked 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:53.600 by a M rump Off to do it. Yes, every day, 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:55.880 all day, every day. I don't even sleep in the 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:58.240 bedroom anymore. You sleep on the couch next to the computer. 0:04:58.440 --> 0:04:59.760 I go to the computer before I go to the 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.040 in the morning. That's why I feel about not sleeping there. 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:04.560 The better. She seems pretty happy. She's got the dog 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:11.600 dog better than Chris Mikey. Uh. Survivor has been phenomenal. 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:14.279 You couldn't have imagined it would be this great, could you? 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:17.080 Only Derek Stevens could have imagined it would be this great? 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:20.039 And and where do we go from here, right, but 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:25.039 let's just enjoy it. Um. Three weeks ago I made 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:28.040 a bet with Paul Howard. I let him take whichever 0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:30.120 side he want. I made it one minus one six 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:33.640 there would be an eighteen and oh or multiple eighteen 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:36.040 and os plus one. There wouldn't he jumped at the 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.840 wooden for Nickel. He's got plus one four. I think 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:41.400 the question now is how many people go eighteen and all? 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:42.840 That should be the new thing. Give me a lot 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:44.960 and I'd love I'd love Well. I have a number. 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:46.360 Derek and I are going to debate it later on 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.080 my guys in the desk. He thinks my number is ludicrous. 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:51.880 U I'll tell you what my number is. I can 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:53.960 tell you mine. It's twenty nine and a half. I 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:56.160 was in the twenties two but not quite that high. 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:58.240 Mitches is eleven and a half. I think that's low. 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:00.640 Mine is twenty three and a half. Dave share Pan 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.240 put twenty four and a half out there. Yeah. I've 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:05.479 heard some people a'm all Shaw who is one of 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:08.520 the So there's one hundred and three entries left. Seven 0:06:08.560 --> 0:06:14.480 of them are have to one of which I am one. Um, 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.800 I'm all Shaw who was in the one group as well. Uh. 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:19.320 He was saying he thought it was gonna be like 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:21.840 seventy some at the end shop and I'm like, no, dude, 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.400 there's no way. He told me. But this was five 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:27.280 weeks ago. He told me he thought fifty people would 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:29.680 chop it. Yeah, so this was without all the information 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:31.440 we have. Not I'm sure he'll adjust the numb there's 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:33.600 too many weeks left, yeah, too many weeks left. Is 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:35.960 how do you know that there's so many people that 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:40.640 have some teams available? Oh you think? Waitin how do 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:44.000 you guys know that there's so many people left with 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:47.800 available teams that are locks to win like you seem 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:50.040 to It sounds from what you guys are saying like 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:52.120 people are going to make it through easily. So what 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:54.480 I don't understand is how are you making that determination 0:06:54.520 --> 0:06:58.080 without knowing what all the hundred people have left on 0:06:58.120 --> 0:07:01.080 their team. We do, though, because circule out an availability 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:04.080 matrix every week where you can see who has who left, 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:06.720 and everybody who's in it now ought to have at 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:10.200 least scripted out the rest of the way. But there's 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:12.360 always mind. It's always a mind, so you can't so 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.200 you can't tell and you can see that there's tons 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:18.000 of people with really good teams about just good teams, 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:20.160 but that are playing there really bad teams that are 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:25.520 playing the Jets Jackson. There's a whole bunch of people 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:29.600 that you can see have favorable matchups. They have path 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.680 paths to go the distance. You, Chris, you think this 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:34.640 is a free pass week. I think it's a free 0:07:34.640 --> 0:07:37.400 pass week. Well, we'll get to this because I'm curious 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:39.800 why you think it's a free pass week. Everything scares 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:43.640 me at this point. I'm terrified by everything you're playing 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:45.320 out in your head, how every pick could lose that 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:48.760 you're thinking about. Absolutely. Meanwhile, I'm I'm just shy of 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:50.720 them all in that I've known who I'm picking every 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:54.200 single week e'xcept for Thanksgiving. The entire time I said 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:57.480 varied based on COVID though, and the possibility either a 0:07:57.520 --> 0:07:59.960 game was moved or the possibility a game could be 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.400 of course, COVID is is. The COVID is as big 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:07.040 a factor as winning your game at this point. That's 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:08.800 why when them all says he did it all on 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:11.080 a plane flight back from Boston in two hours, and 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.200 he's never spent more than five minutes on it. How 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:14.960 could you not spend more than five minutes each week 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:17.840 diagnosing the COVID. That's right, that's right. I think there 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:20.160 might be a bit of an exaggeration. Let's let's start 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:22.520 with the with the normal format, will work up the Survivor. 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:26.240 So I'm actually talking about Survivor. But Todd records are 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:32.640 what we're kind of cush. Last week, you and uh 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:35.640 Mikey both went one and two to even up your 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:39.400 records at seventeen seventeen and two. I got crushed oh 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:42.600 and three with my overs, and I am fifteen twenty 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:45.839 and one in the teaser game, I am the leader 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:48.280 at eight and four, and you guys both lost and 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:51.600 have fallen to seven and five. The one that killed 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:53.480 me last week was Kansas City because we had three 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:55.440 in a hook here on the show, Like, how did 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:59.040 that turn into a loss? Um? Okay, so those are 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.120 the records. Um, we don't have any Thursday Night football 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:06.319 tonight because the Ravens and the Catboys got scuttled because 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:07.760 of the Ravens and the Steelers. By the way, the 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:11.440 biggest takeaway from that game yesterday that Bud Dupree injury. Man. 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:15.360 I don't know, Todd, you're a Steelers guy. They're eleven 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:19.120 and oh but they don't have Bud dupre Now. They 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:21.600 can't run the football, so Big Ben had to chuck 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:23.640 it around fifty one times just to beat a bad 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.480 Ravens team. In terms of who they had at starting quarterback, 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:28.360 all the injuries they ended up having during the game, 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:31.480 the Steelers, who they've beaten, doesn't look all that good. 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:34.240 That's I mean. I called the Browns a paper tiger 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:35.920 at eight and three, But I mean, who's who has 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:38.560 a more inflated record in the end. I wonder because 0:09:38.559 --> 0:09:40.920 the Steelers had to make If I had to make 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:44.439 Kansas City against Pittsburgh and the a f C Championship 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:48.360 game line, which even if it took place in Pittsburgh, 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:52.320 I would make Kansas City in Pittsburgh, I would make 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:58.800 Kansas City minus five. Todd wish. Now that's a little strike. 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:04.680 That's too stiff, Tod, that's stiff. Maybe maybe three. Chris 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:08.280 is already looking for a line of out to bet that. Alright, 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:11.200 so what do we do best bets? We start with 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:15.400 best bets. We always start with our guest Las Vegas. Chris, 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.760 your first best bet of the week, sir, Oh, this 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:19.439 is the one thing I didn't work on. So I'm 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:22.160 just gonna pick everything randomly. You guys do them in order. 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.720 But my philosophy is to pretty much bet everything the same, 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:30.199 and I want to bet the same across the board, 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:35.839 and then I'll downgrade something for injuries or uh it 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:40.719 just smells rotten. Uh, you know, personal decisions. So but 0:10:40.840 --> 0:10:42.720 pretty much everything is the same, and no matter how 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:45.800 good it looks on the metrics, Uh, I find it 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:47.600 a longer and it doesn't make a difference. I'm having 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:50.560 a tough time ranking my three too, so I get it. 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.880 I think one of the things that I personally like 0:10:54.200 --> 0:11:01.920 is the Titans in Cleveland over. Um, God, whatever you 0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:09.320 got against the Brownies, I have as an over I 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:13.000 have fifty three and a half. Yeah. I like that. 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:16.400 When you're talking about some you know, two teams with 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:20.559 really crappy defenses. You've got the in my rankings defense 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:25.760 in Tennessee and the twenty defense in Cleveland. And everybody 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:29.120 knows Tennessee is a solid offensive team. I have them 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:35.559 ranked five. Um and Cleveland, Ah, they've got some glamourus 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.439 stats on offense that make them look better than they are. 0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:42.120 I don't have them rated all that high offensively, um, 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:44.160 but they do have three or three weather games in 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:47.000 a row that you know, brought down their offensive stats 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:51.320 obviously and actually improved those horrible defensive stats. Cleveland was 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:55.200 down like in the thirty twenty nine range before the 0:11:55.240 --> 0:12:01.040 Weather games. But I just see that there that uh, 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:04.160 there's a key injury on the Titan side, day Ron Brown. 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:07.520 They're key running a linebacker who would be good against 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:11.040 Cleveland's number one rushing offense, and he's not gonna be there. 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:14.120 So Cleveland should be able to move the ball, um, 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:16.480 and they should be able to pass the ball too, 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.720 And and is ridiculous as Baker look last week with 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:23.480 some of his passes, Uh, he's not making the same 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:28.559 mistakes he made last year. He had was it six 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:33.880 turnovers last year? He only as eight this year, probably 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:39.120 because he just can't throw the ball anywhere. But uh, alright, 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:43.920 I don't know what that was. So I I just see, 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:46.640 And I don't think Tennessee is going to be as 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.960 focused on this game. I think that they really came 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:51.960 to play last week, that there's been two weeks in 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:56.280 a row where they've come to play. Uh, Indianapolis, UH 0:12:56.600 --> 0:13:00.640 is two games behind them now, UH for the division, 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:03.520 Tennessee can kind of let up a little bit, even 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:06.000 though we were talking about two identical teams for the 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:09.920 a f C South lead though those teams eight and three, right, So, 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:14.880 I just I don't see tend I just see a 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.360 little bit of a of a drop off for Tennessee. 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.680 Focus also, so I see mistakes, I see carelessness, I 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.920 see bad defense, and and the over just looks good 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:25.880 to me. By the way, let me clarify Cleveland in 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.200 the a f C North, but Tennessee with a one 0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:31.440 game lead over Indianapolis and the a f C South, 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:34.440 both teams Cleveland Tennessee eight and three, both on the 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:38.360 inside of the playoff race. Right now, Mike, I'm gonna 0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:42.439 go back to the scene of a crime, UH in Glendale, Arizona, 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.959 where last time Todd and I were APO with him 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.240 on the Cardinals and me on the Bills. I'm gonna 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.240 go back and play the Bills as a short favorite 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.000 in Glendale and rich is really a game where they've 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:55.719 played in this building this year in San Francisco has not, 0:13:56.240 --> 0:13:58.439 but is now assuming this is their home field because 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:02.320 of the Santa Clara County restrictions. I I you know, 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:07.160 I listened to Gil Gil Show talking about the decimation 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:11.080 of injuries both on the defensive line, the quarterback, and 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:13.199 how this is still a top team in the NFL, 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:17.800 top half, top half team in the NFL. You know, 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:21.840 we got killed. We got killed on this game last week, 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:24.320 and that everybody had San Francisco against the Rams. It 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.400 was all one side of action and they were right. 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.640 Shanahan with two weeks to prepare was excellent. They you know, 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:33.160 they got it out, they got tied and still won 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:36.240 that game. They've they've overachieved here. I just think this 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:38.720 Bill's team, you really have to play well to beat him. 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.440 They're they're there are no easy out any week, and 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:44.160 they get the experience of traveling again, they've already been 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:46.720 in this building. I think they're the better team. This 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:50.440 game is essentially a pick. I think Josh Allen has progressed. 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:53.520 Let's not forget if there's not that halt yeah minus one. 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:57.520 Let's not forget if there's not that hail mary uh. 0:14:57.880 --> 0:14:59.960 Last week there there are ten points ahead. There went 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.320 in that game by ten at home and covering against 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:06.080 San Diego. Notwithstanding that the nonsense with Anthony Lynn on 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.400 the goal line once they did catch it. So I'm 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:10.920 gonna lay one here in a game that's a neutral 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:12.680 sight game with the bill in real life? Would you 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:14.840 just bet the money line here? I would? Okay, Yes, 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:17.240 that's right. I want to imagine. Buffalo minus one is 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:20.200 what we'll log in as Mikey's official pick. There. That's 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:24.440 the second of two Monday night games with COVID postponement. 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:26.960 You always have to keep track of his. Washington Pittsburgh 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.520 is a five pm Eastern two pm Pacific Monday night 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:32.720 Monday afternoon ish at least on the Pacific time zone game, 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.880 and then Buffalo San Francisco, which is at as Mikey said, 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:39.840 in Glendale, the first of two consecutive games the Niners 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:41.360 will play in Glendale, and by the way, a couple 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:43.120 of weeks after that, they already have a game at 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:45.720 Glendale against the Cardinals, so three out of four weeks 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:47.920 they'll play in Arizona, Buffalo, and San Francisco. Is the 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:49.800 second of the two Monday night games, a fifteen eastern 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:55.280 five Pacific number one from my first of all, this 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.840 is this is a ridiculous week. I mean, most weeks 0:15:57.840 --> 0:15:59.960 you look at the anti fire like this is ridiculous 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.960 to bet pregame, and uh, this just seems even harder 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:08.040 than usual. I'm just gonna go with something. I'm going 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:10.880 with Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn. I mean, I know 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.160 all the struggles that New England has, and I know 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:17.600 Herbert's good, and I could see the Chargers easily winning 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.720 the game. But when it comes down to it, I 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:24.400 got Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn. When is that ever 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.000 gonna happen in the rest of our lives, a coaching 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:32.480 mismatch to that degree, Um, Patriots or minus one? I 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:36.000 see or pick them. I'll say, We'll say even Pats 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:38.880 minus one. I just have to win the football game. 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.880 Bill Belichick versus Anthony Lynn. I don't know. I don't 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:45.240 want to say anything else. That's it, Bill Belichick versus 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:48.120 Anthony Lynn. Give me the Pats. Okay, you got the Pats, 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:49.920 which right now? What do you see? And Pats as 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:52.960 one point minus one? Yeah, drifting towards a pick them 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:55.640 the more we go on this week, the I'm gonna 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:57.760 do two here because that's my number two pick as well. 0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:00.880 I'm on Bill Belichick in the and the Patriots. And 0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:03.360 I'll just add to that. If we're just doing this 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:06.320 on a blind you know, the blind comparison thing, and 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:08.960 you see the Chargers personnel and the Patriots personnel, the 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:11.119 Chargers should win this game every time as a pick up. 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.720 But it is Belichick against Anthony Lynn. And this comes 0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:16.960 down to a self loathing thing. If I bet the 0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:20.040 Chargers and they lose, I hate myself. If I bet 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:21.800 the Patriots and they lose, I can live with that 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:24.560 every day. And you're right, we don't get this opportunity 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:27.440 very much. By the immutable laws of football, you must 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:29.560 bet on Belichick against Lens. So that's my number too, 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:35.080 picky sir. If you switch the coaches, Belichick is coaching 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:38.560 the Chargers personnel and Lynn is coaching the Patriots. What's 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.280 the number on this? It's a great point, a touchdown, 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:45.080 it's a touchdown, might be a touchdown. Uh, it's so true, 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:48.560 you know. I I tweeted something out on Sunday that 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:52.840 that the NFL announcers as bad as they are or 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:58.000 more often correct than Lynn is, which is amazing. I mean, 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.560 they miss everything, they miss everything. Yeah, there's a there's 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:05.320 a writer in San Diego Sports columnist that has dubbed 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:14.760 Anthony Lynn Rolex for his precisely clock man phenomenal. I 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:17.960 asked the question for you because I almost lost two 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.880 bets last week on that game. At the end, if 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.879 in the last play, had they run the quarterback sneak 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:27.639 with their lineman actually running forward instead of running backward, 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.199 and had gotten into the end zone, would they have 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:31.960 had to kick the extra point? Because I know in 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:34.040 the old days you did have to kick the extra point, 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:36.480 but in the and then I heard that later there 0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:38.120 was a rule change that they don't have to kick 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.760 the extra point. What would have the story been at 0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:42.560 the end of that game, you go down to the 0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:45.800 two yard line and near the ball. No, no, no, no, 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:49.360 it had no effect because they were losing by ten. 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:53.639 I'm telling it was twenty seventeen. Had the Chargers gotten 0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:56.680 a touchdown on fourth down, it was three seconds left. 0:18:56.880 --> 0:18:58.719 If the last play the game would have him been 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.920 dumping into the end zone three would they have come 0:19:02.960 --> 0:19:04.600 and kicked the extra point? Because I know in the 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:07.000 old days you had to kick an extra point, you 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.480 had to do a final play. But then I think 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:11.520 they changed the rule to make it like college where 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:14.160 you don't do the extra point. Does anybody know what 0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:16.360 the actual rule is on that? Yeah, but I don't 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:18.439 really know if I understand the question, why wouldn't they 0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:20.479 I bet money that they still have to do it, 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:23.119 but they, Yeah, they do. I thought there was a 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:25.959 rule change that in the NFL they stopped doing that 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:29.000 last extra point. May be wrong, you're gonna have sworn. 0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:33.800 I saw Kyler Murray uhl remember that one. He just 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:35.600 came out and need the ball. But Todd, you're saying, 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:37.639 but there were still time left. So you're saying if 0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:40.400 there's no time on the clock, that's what I'm talking about. 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:45.240 There wasn't that Arizona game, otherwise they would That's correct, 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:50.280 that's right. No, the Arizona game, there was time. There was, Yeah, 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:52.560 because there was two seconds left. Because my my joke, 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:54.840 and it wasn't really a joke. I thought that Cliff 0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:59.000 Kingsbury was getting all this praise for being smart enough 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:00.879 not to kick the extra point, risking a block and 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:02.919 at two points the other way. I actually thought he 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:07.560 think he thought it was a time down. Um. So yeah, um, 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:10.080 but my first pick, I'm going with the Colts, and 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:11.720 I know this is the worst of it by the 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:14.600 time we did this show here Thursday morning, it's three 0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:17.520 and a hook, which obviously I don't like nearly as 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:18.920 much as I liked it earlier in the week. But 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:20.639 I'm gonna stick with what my first reaction was on 0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:22.800 guessing lines. This was two and a half at the 0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:25.280 time or three in favor of the Colts. I do 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:28.280 think this is the Bilow Cell high that Chrissie andrews 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:31.440 Uh framed it as the other day after I said 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:35.080 I liked Indianapolis. I think the Colts couldn't have looked 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:37.480 worse in that game against the Titans. It was a 0:20:37.480 --> 0:20:41.040 perfect matchup for Derrick Henry and the Titans. DeForest Buckner 0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:43.440 and a couple other defenders were out of that game. 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:47.080 Buckner had was on the COVID reserve list, he couldn't play, 0:20:47.480 --> 0:20:50.359 and so the Titans were just ran rough shot. Derrick 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:52.639 Henry had ridiculous amount of yards in the first half. 0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:55.520 Um I give specifically how much, but it was well 0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:57.720 over a hundred yards in the first half of that ballgame, 0:20:58.000 --> 0:20:59.679