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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast just about that.

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Speaker 2: Action all.

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Speaker 1: Right. Here we go from.

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Speaker 2: Throwing out so spect we're saying it's a cash touchdown

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Speaker 2: and that's all we see most gamble is when they

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Speaker 2: go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 1: fall and we are underways.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Now. We're podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I'm joined by

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Speaker 2: the one the only I call him BA. You probably

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Speaker 2: know him as Brandon Anderson. For some best bets for

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Speaker 2: NFL Week fifteen, Man Week fifteen. Cherish these moments, everybody.

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Speaker 2: We will get to those bets Chortley, but first we've

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Speaker 2: just got some fun trends to talk about. I kind

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Speaker 2: of enter ourselves into this week, and honestly, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot to you is from I said this in our

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Speaker 2: discord when I put the primer out this week. But

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Speaker 2: this I've been doing this, like I don't know, twenty years,

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Speaker 2: putting out this type of content. I feel like this

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Speaker 2: is maybe the wild this week I've seen in terms

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Speaker 2: of the rivers stuff, which we'll talk about in a second,

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Speaker 2: and all the big spreads and the lines. It's a

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Speaker 2: lot going on, especially when no teams are on by

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Speaker 2: which I know we love, But to me, the topic

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Speaker 2: here is just the big spread. So I'll go through

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Speaker 2: three right now and that we're going to talk about

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Speaker 2: a fourth in a second. But c J. Stroud mid

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Speaker 2: forty six career NFL starts, He's biggest line is eight now,

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Speaker 2: it's about nine and a half ten against Arizona Bears,

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Speaker 2: seven and a half point favorite against the Browns, which

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Speaker 2: would be the biggest favorite for Caleb Williams. I know,

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Speaker 2: short career, but also Chicago hasn't been this big of

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Speaker 2: a favorite since twenty twenty. And then you look at,

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Speaker 2: of course maybe the game of the week half joke

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Speaker 2: Seattle thirteen and a half minus fourteen against the Colts.

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Speaker 2: Anything at thirteen or higher be the biggest spread for

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Speaker 2: Sam Darnold in his career, and a fun one. Donald

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Speaker 2: six points or more is a favorite. Eleven times he

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Speaker 2: is eleven and zero straight up nine and two against

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Speaker 2: his thread, so he's done well on that spot. But

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Speaker 2: I will say this tread lightly friends, so based off

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Speaker 2: of that information, and of course the fun Philip Rivers Information.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about all these big numbers this Weekpa.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a strange slate. I count six games

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Speaker 1: out of field goal or less, and most of those

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Speaker 1: I have by my numbers. You're gonna hear this a

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Speaker 1: lot today. I have this as a coin flip. I

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Speaker 1: don't mean like, oh, three points is pretty close county

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Speaker 1: coin flip. When I say that, I mean like no,

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Speaker 1: I literally have this like minus point one or plus

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Speaker 1: point two to either side. So that's six of the games.

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Speaker 1: But there's also six games over a touchdown favor You

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Speaker 1: just went over three of them. We'll get to some

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Speaker 1: of the others. I had a hard time. We'll get

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Speaker 1: to the pick six in a second. A hard time

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Speaker 1: coming up with what do you do with the pick six?

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Speaker 1: I don't love picking these coin flip outcomes. You can

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Speaker 1: get a really big parlay that way, but I don't

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Speaker 1: really love stacking these ginormous favorites either. The first time

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Speaker 1: I ran through it, my parlay of six picks was

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Speaker 1: plus two hundred. I about doing six games for a

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Speaker 1: two to one like, that's not good strategy. So it's

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Speaker 1: a weird spread of games. And as always with me,

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Speaker 1: when I started out this week and I was like, oh, man,

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Speaker 1: I don't know about this game. I don't know about

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Speaker 1: this I don't love the spread here. And I kind

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Speaker 1: of go through game by game and I was like, shoot,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what I like in this week's spread.

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Speaker 1: So naturally what happens. The rundown gets loaded from top

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Speaker 1: to bottom because I like dig my heels in further,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, oh, what about the backup third string

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Speaker 1: tight end. That's the one I love here. So we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have some fun today, some kind of wonky bets

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Speaker 1: that Philip Rivers won. I ended up not having a

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Speaker 1: bet on that game. I can't figure out why the

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Speaker 1: line hasn't moved back towards the Colts, and I guess

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Speaker 1: it's just because Philip Rivers is older than both of

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Speaker 1: us and returning to football and we just don't know.

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Speaker 1: But Riley Leonard, I mean like he's got to be

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Speaker 1: improvement on whatever Riley Leonard, who's injured, was going to

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Speaker 1: give them. And I can't get anywhere close to that

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Speaker 1: seattle like thirteen and a half or whatever it's at

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Speaker 1: right now. I have it more like eight, nine, ten range,

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Speaker 1: depending on what you think of Rivers, and I really

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Speaker 1: strongly considered taking Colts and even A Colt's money line

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Speaker 1: play just is such a fun story. The Philip Rivers

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Speaker 1: comes out of five years of retirement to play shouts

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Speaker 1: to Joe Flacco off the couch, Like we love the

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Speaker 1: comeback story. We love a two fifty to one. Books

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Speaker 1: ain't giving us that this time Rivers. What is he

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Speaker 1: like twenty to one or even ten to one comeback

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Speaker 1: player of the year some books, I can't quite get there.

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Speaker 1: I think it'd have to go four to oho down

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Speaker 1: the stretch. And we've talked a lot about how bad

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Speaker 1: the Colts' schedule is, So I think that's a game

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Speaker 1: for us to be watching, just because it's such an

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Speaker 1: interesting story and it just kind of it feels weird,

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Speaker 1: but it feels weirdly right also, So I want to

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Speaker 1: watch that one, but I've got some from most of

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Speaker 1: the other games here, and it's a it's a weird slate,

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Speaker 1: but that means more weird angles to come up with.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably be on the sideline for that one.

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Speaker 2: I considered like A Colt's first quarter money line, like

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Speaker 2: I don't know, I feel like I needed some sort

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Speaker 2: of action. I know we talked about it on the

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Speaker 2: Favorites earlier today, like maybe Jonathan Taylor, like maybe there's

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Speaker 2: like a longest rush, assuming he's gonna give him the

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Speaker 2: ball a ton, like there might be some angles there,

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Speaker 2: but just fascinating. And actually right now we're recording this

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Speaker 2: on Thursday about six pm Eastern, and the news is

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Speaker 2: is that he's supposed to start like it seems like

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Speaker 2: that's the direction that they're headed, even though Riley Leonard

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Speaker 2: is in there practicing, looks like he's healthy. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: go with Phil So I can't wait. All right, So

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Speaker 2: if you'd like to tell some of the bets we're

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Speaker 2: about to discuss, find the clicks up link in the

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Speaker 2: podcast and video description, or visit actionework dot com, slash

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Speaker 2: bet now, or even better, sign up for action Pro.

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Speaker 2: Action Pro users get real time alerts as soon as

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Speaker 2: the app. They'll also get real time money percentages to

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Speaker 2: see where the smart money is flowing, and access to

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Speaker 2: our NFL player prop projections powered by Sean Kerner. Hey,

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Speaker 2: there's even Philip Rivers props in there. Just go to

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Speaker 2: Action slash Pro to get started and use promo code

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Speaker 2: Pod twenty for twenty dollars off an annual subscription. That's

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Speaker 2: dot com slash Pro. All right, it's starting to get

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Speaker 2: some NFL Week fifteen best bets started as always Brandon's

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Speaker 2: pick six. Listen, got a lot of favorites to choose

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Speaker 2: from this week, a lot of heavy chalk. So what's

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Speaker 2: the direction this your best bet?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we talked about those six favorites over a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: I ended up going with five of the six, and

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Speaker 1: I'm kind of using those five to juice one big underdog,

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Speaker 1: So Eagles, Texans, Bears. Early. You mentioned a couple of

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Speaker 1: those Niners Seahawks in the later afternoons slay all big favorites.

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Speaker 1: I guess that did end up with the Seahawks Rivers

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Speaker 1: pick in there as well. That the one underdog I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go. I'm gonna go with the Lions at the Rams,

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Speaker 1: give me Detroit and effectively, and we'll get to the

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Speaker 1: pick later because I'm gonna give you the money line

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Speaker 1: pick for Detroit in a while but effectively that takes

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Speaker 1: it from a round plus two hundred for just Detroit

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Speaker 1: to make it worth my time, it's plus five seventy

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Speaker 1: four once I use those other ones in there. Look,

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Speaker 1: that's not a great long term plan. Don't just start

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Speaker 1: throwing like minus one thousands to juice your prices. I

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Speaker 1: got I'm not advocating for that on typical game theory.

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Speaker 1: But for our pick sixth with this slate five big

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Speaker 1: favorites plus the Lions and the one favorite that I

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Speaker 1: didn't pick, we're about to get to to start out

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Speaker 1: our slate today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I will start us there just to have

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Speaker 2: a little bit of fun. But it is Jaguars and

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Speaker 2: the Jets, and listen, Jags are double digit favorites in

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Speaker 2: this game versus the Jets. At any line above minus ten,

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Speaker 2: it would be the biggest line of Trevor Lawrence's pro career.

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Speaker 2: But not just that. Jacksonville hasn't closed as a favorite

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Speaker 2: of eleven points or more since two thousand and seven

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Speaker 2: with David Gerard. So right now, this is a Jaguars team.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I like them to make the playoffs this year.

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Speaker 2: I didn't think it'd be like this, So right now

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Speaker 2: line sitting at what to let twelve and a half?

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Speaker 2: Last time, I look, potentially, what are you doing thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half? All right, so what are you doing

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Speaker 2: here with Jets Jags?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? So as always, if there's a big favorite that

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Speaker 1: I don't pick in the pick six, there's probably a reason.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going the other way here. I can't get

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Speaker 1: anywhere close to thirteen and a half. Gave me the

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Speaker 1: Jets with the points plus thirteen and a half. We

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Speaker 1: had a Panthers month here in the podcast, four straight

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Speaker 1: Panthers games. We're leading off the pod with the Jets

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Speaker 1: game a second straight week. I think this is now

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Speaker 1: four straight Jets game picks. So look, it was uglier.

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Speaker 1: I wanted Mason Taylor receptions escalator here, that was the

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Speaker 1: bet I wanted. But he's got a neck injury. I

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Speaker 1: don't think he's even gonna play. So the line here

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, like the thirteen and a half eleven twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half, I looked and if I put the

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Speaker 1: Jaguars at home against any team in the league that

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Speaker 1: I can give them, I still don't make them double

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Speaker 1: legit favorites. I just can't get anywhere close to this number.

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Speaker 1: I have it closer to eight. This was Jags minus

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Speaker 1: four and a half in the preseason, so this time

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Speaker 1: year it's helpful sometimes to look back. Okay, what did

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Speaker 1: we think before the season, and is Jetsville really nine

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Speaker 1: points better now than what we thought of them before

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Speaker 1: the season. That's a huge, huge move, and obviously part

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Speaker 1: of it is the Jets are probably a little worse

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Speaker 1: now than we thought coming in, though no one was

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Speaker 1: really particularly high on the Jets. The offense is played

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Speaker 1: better with Tyrod Taylor, but probably Brady Cook, it looks

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Speaker 1: like in this one, So I guess we're betting on

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Speaker 1: Brady Cook to start at the pod today. Offense have

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Speaker 1: been better on the road this season by a lot,

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Speaker 1: worse than the league at home, near top ten on

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Speaker 1: the road. Kind of a weird setup. So Jacksonville defense

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Speaker 1: typically invites a very past heavy attack most in the league.

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Speaker 1: We's not Jets football. The Jets are the run heaviest

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Speaker 1: team in the league, and actually they're so stubborn running

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Speaker 1: the ball, I think it might work in their favor here.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville's below average EPA per play defending the run, So

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Speaker 1: if the Jets actually stick to the thing, they want

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Speaker 1: to do like they have all year. That may work out,

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Speaker 1: and their one relative strength I think the Jets is

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Speaker 1: their run defense. That's a good against Jacksonville as well.

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Speaker 1: Looks like a windy game. We're going to see that

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Speaker 1: in a lot of games, windy, cold games this weekend.

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Speaker 1: It's a low total trends look under low total short game.

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Speaker 1: Thirteen and a half is just a lot. So look,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to get you excited about the Jets.

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Speaker 1: It's about the number, It's about the trends. Just a

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Speaker 1: classic by low Sell high spot to me. Here's some

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Speaker 1: of the trends that line up. Jacksonville scored twenty five

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Speaker 1: or more in five straight games teams like that since

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Speaker 1: two thousand and nine, forty one percent ATS. In their

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Speaker 1: following game, Jacksonville just won as a touchdown or more

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Speaker 1: underdog by seventeen or more points. Teams like that since

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Speaker 1: twenty ten, sixty seven one, twenty one and three ATS,

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Speaker 1: thirty six percent cover rate, seventeen point winners Jacksonville versus

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Speaker 1: seventeen point losers the Jets forty one percent ATS. So

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Speaker 1: everything is telling us Jacksonville a little bit too high

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Speaker 1: in the market. The Jets maybe a little bit too low,

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Speaker 1: and then finishing out with some of the Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 1: stats you mentioned already. Lawrence in his career against teams

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Speaker 1: below five hundred only nine and sixteen ats, thirty six

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Speaker 1: percent cover rate, He's forty four percent ATS as a

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Speaker 1: favor in his career, He's only twice been even over seven.

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Speaker 1: So this is double the highest spread he's had in

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Speaker 1: his career. Really, and by the way, in those two

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Speaker 1: games where is favored by more than a touchdown zero

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Speaker 1: and two straight up, he lost those games straight up.

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Speaker 1: So when the money line gets this long seven hundred

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Speaker 1: or more, I'm almost I was going to think about

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Speaker 1: nibbling since twenty eighteen. Once it gets to plus seven

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Speaker 1: hundred longer, we're almost one hundred percent ROI in the

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Speaker 1: money line. So give me the Jets plus thirteen and

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Speaker 1: a half an obligatory if you're playing the Jets, sprinkle

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Speaker 1: the money line seven to one Jats.

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Speaker 2: Let's go, yeah, Jags. I've covered for straight lines obviously inflated.

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Speaker 2: When you talk about all the things you've considered, the

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Speaker 2: fun one is this. I mean, the Jets got eliminated

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Speaker 2: basically in the same spot last year around the same week,

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Speaker 2: then plays the face the Jaguars and beat them. So

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Speaker 2: you're just looking for repeat there, understanding a lot of differences,

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Speaker 2: but a fun note. Nonetheless, the thing you also say,

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Speaker 2: Jaguars rush defense just been absurd, Like they haven't even

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Speaker 2: allowed a player to rush for seventy five yards this year,

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Speaker 2: and that, you know, when you're looking at it like that,

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Speaker 2: the Jets obviously should be game planning around that, because honestly,

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Speaker 2: they pass a lot against Jacksonville. So I like it.

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Speaker 2: It's a huge, huge line, Brady Cook, just stay close,

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Speaker 2: all right, let's keep going here. To me, three really

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Speaker 2: really good games this week. This is one of them. Patriots,

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Speaker 2: Bill's what's the weird way you're playing this? Because we

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Speaker 2: know you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we know me. I'm going by halves here and

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna play both halves. I like Patriots first half,

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Speaker 1: I like Bill's second half, and I've got some kind

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Speaker 1: of combo plays. So let's start here. Yeah, we got

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Speaker 1: the Jets game out of the way. We're getting to

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Speaker 1: the more interesting games right off the top. Now, beyond that,

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Speaker 1: this game feels pretty big. I think it's maybe not

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Speaker 1: quite as big as it feels the Patriots can lose

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Speaker 1: this one. Still beat the Jets and the Dolphins in

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Speaker 1: the last two games. They're the division winners. This is

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Speaker 1: more about one seed, I think for New England. But

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Speaker 1: to me, neither defense has really been that good. Both

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Speaker 1: offenses are great, but maybe not quite elite because they're

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Speaker 1: kind of flawed offenses, with the Bills very run heavy,

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Speaker 1: that's what they're better at. That sort of matches up

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Speaker 1: with the one thing New England does defend well against

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Speaker 1: the run. With the Patriots, they want to pass. They

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Speaker 1: can't run the ball all right. Well, Buffalo stops can't

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Speaker 1: stop the run to save their lives, but noone can't

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Speaker 1: really run on them. The one flaw and all that,

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Speaker 1: Milton Williams has been a big miss for New England.

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Speaker 1: Their run defense has dropped over the last three games

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Speaker 1: without him from fourth to twenty third EPA per play

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Speaker 1: eighth to thirty first success rate. So to me, if

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Speaker 1: I gotta go aside, I'd probably lean Bills because they

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Speaker 1: want to run and I think that they may be

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Speaker 1: able to with Milton Williams out, But I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo is a lot worse on the road, has been

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Speaker 1: for a few years now, Patriots are off the buy,

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Speaker 1: and off the buy is what triggers this whole setup

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Speaker 1: for me, so trend that you've heard from me before,

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Speaker 1: teams coming off of buy that are home underdogs in

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Speaker 1: the first half sixty percent cover rate for those teams.

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Speaker 1: And that really sets up well for these two teams

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Speaker 1: in particular because guess what, the Bills are three to

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Speaker 1: ten ATS in the first half this season. They are

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Speaker 1: not starting games. Well, that's worse in the NFL. And

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Speaker 1: guess who's best. It's the Patriots ten and three ATS

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Speaker 1: in the first half on the season. New England has

301
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Speaker 1: been way better offensively in the first half, so that

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Speaker 1: sets up well for them out of the gates, the

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Speaker 1: rested team the underdog here, I know, not by much

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Speaker 1: that makes sense intuitively, Okay. On the other hand, teams

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Speaker 1: facing opponent off the buye like the Bills that are

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Speaker 1: road favorites of under six so short favorites. We think

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Speaker 1: they're better, but not by a huge amount. Second half

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Speaker 1: ats sixty three percent. So now we're on the Buffalo

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Speaker 1: second half thing, which we like because Josh Allen is

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Speaker 1: the second half king eighty forty and three ats for

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Speaker 1: his career sixty seven percent, sixty nine percent this season

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Speaker 1: nine to four. That's second best in the league. So

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Speaker 1: I like New England early, I like Buffalo late. And

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Speaker 1: here's the best part. I don't even have to pick

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Speaker 1: who's gonna win the game if I just play those separately.

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Speaker 1: So let me kind of talk through the details here,

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Speaker 1: because when you play some of these lines, they're very close.

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Speaker 1: So Patriots first half, I'm going to choose past first

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Speaker 1: half minus half a point. It's plus one ten at DraftKings. Now, look,

320
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Speaker 1: you can play the money line, or at some books

321
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Speaker 1: you can play that line plus half a point without

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Speaker 1: getting too far into the weeds plus half a point.

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Speaker 1: If it's a tie game, I lose my bet the

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Speaker 1: one I'm choosing the money line. If it's a tie,

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Speaker 1: I push, I get my money back. I'm always aggressive, Evan,

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Speaker 1: you know that I'm going for it. I want the

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Speaker 1: Paths to actually lead. At halftime, it's thirty cents better

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Speaker 1: payout for my bet plus one ten. So then second half,

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Speaker 1: same thing. Bill's second half minus one and a half

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Speaker 1: points plus one twenty. Again, I'm gonna take the more

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Speaker 1: aggressive spot there, even though I'm risking tiny outs. I'm

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Speaker 1: risking losing a push on a tie, or if the

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Speaker 1: Bills win by one in the second half, I lose

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Speaker 1: the bet that way. So Pat's first half bill second half,

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Speaker 1: and then put them together pass first half bill, second

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Speaker 1: half together plus two twenty one. Those kind of make

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Speaker 1: sense together, right. If the Patriots are ahead at halftime,

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Speaker 1: all the better. You're gonna like Josh Allen to make

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Speaker 1: the push in the second half. And again that's second

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Speaker 1: half Bills. They don't even have to come back and win.

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Speaker 1: They just need to make a pushback, which we pretty

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Speaker 1: much think that they would. And then the last part

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Speaker 1: of this one, if you do think the Bills get

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Speaker 1: the win. Again, that's the direction I lean if I want,

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Speaker 1: if I needed to pick Allen when he plays a

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Speaker 1: defense that allows twenty points a game or less in

347
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Speaker 1: his career, twenty three six and one ats seventy nine percent,

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Speaker 1: so we know he's gonna find some points. That's what

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Speaker 1: that stat is telling you. So first half or Pat's halftime,

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Speaker 1: Bill's full time. That's another one of the ways to

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Speaker 1: do with these. So now the Bills have to win.

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Speaker 1: That one's plus four ninety, So I know that's a

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Speaker 1: lot of numbers in combos. Check the alf check the article,

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Speaker 1: the whole premise here. Patriots first half, Bill's second half.

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Speaker 1: I think that's how this one sets up, and we'll

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Speaker 1: see if it plays out that way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, that last one's the most fun. I mean,

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Speaker 2: obviously you're having to accurately predict both sides of it,

359
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Speaker 2: which is why the odds show about five to one.

360
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Speaker 2: But I like Buffalo in this game as well. And

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Speaker 2: if you look at the line, it's going up. I

362
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Speaker 2: expect this to get to two, maybe even two and

363
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Speaker 2: a half, because that seems to be the direction that

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Speaker 2: it's headed. I think it's a lot of respect for Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: but I kind of think rightfully so, like Drake May

366
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Speaker 2: was absolutely Superman in that first meeting, Buffalo shot themselves

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Speaker 2: in the foot a bunch of times they got into

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Speaker 2: the red zone. Just bad, bad offense. And to back

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Speaker 2: up your stats, Josh Allen's fifteen career starts against the

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Speaker 2: Patriots five and ten first half ats, He's lost six

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Speaker 2: in a row in that spot, and then you flip around,

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Speaker 2: he's nine to five and one second half ats versus

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Speaker 2: New England. Then you just look at New England full

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Speaker 2: season in the fourth quarter, they're five and eight against

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Speaker 2: this thread, so you've seen some comeback. Now is the

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Speaker 2: five and eight. Maybe we're leading by a crap ton

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Speaker 2: and we're taking our foot off the gas, of course,

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Speaker 2: but I still feel like the other numbers kind of trumpet.

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Speaker 2: So I'm with you, Buffalo, Let's roll bills.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here again. Another great game,

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Speaker 2: So we're giving it to you all right. Now, green

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Speaker 2: Bay and Denver, this one, to me is a very

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Speaker 2: very fun angle to take because of what we've seen

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Speaker 2: from not only green Bay, but most importantly what we've

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Speaker 2: seen from Denver's offense this season. So how you playing

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Speaker 2: green Bay? Denver?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? So, like the game we just talked about, I

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Speaker 1: make this nearly a coin flip on the off so

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna play a full game here, and I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna pick a winner either. I actually don't necessarily

392
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Speaker 1: know who I think wins this game because of the

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Speaker 1: coin flip nature. I'm gonna go to the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: so let me walk us there and then I'll explain

395
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Speaker 1: what I'm playing in the fourth quarter on the matchup.

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Speaker 1: I think both ways, you kind of know Packers' offense

397
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Speaker 1: is their better unit. Denver's defense is their better unit.

398
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,919
Speaker 1: We don't really know what we think necessarily about the

399
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,439
Speaker 1: other half of those teams, right Denver's offense, I do

400
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:14,880
Speaker 1: think is trending up. We're gonna come back to them

401
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,119
Speaker 1: a little bit later on our look ahead as well.

402
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Speaker 1: Bo Nicks pretty quietly guy that I've given a lot

403
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Speaker 1: of slander to playing a lot better football over the

404
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 1: middle half of the season, and a lot of his

405
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,560
Speaker 1: numbers are up along with the offense. So I do

406
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Speaker 1: have some interest there with Denver. Kind of moving up

407
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 1: now into my top ten of my powerings. Doesn't seem

408
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 1: like much for the one seed, but I assure you

409
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 1: they've not been in that range before this. But I've

410
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 1: noticed with Denver, We've talked about this before, they have

411
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Speaker 1: been a very slow starting first quarter team, bottom of

412
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Speaker 1: five DVA offense, first quarter, bottom ten DV away first,

413
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Speaker 1: second and third quarter on the season. But fourth quarter

414
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Speaker 1: that's where the Broncos come to life. They're number seven

415
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 1: in DVA there and the Packers are number one. So

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Speaker 1: now we're in the fourth quarter, and that mes which

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00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 1: is the eye test. Right, both of these teams are

418
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,199
Speaker 1: so frustrating to watch because they just kind of go

419
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 1: through the motions and play these plotting, slow, tight games

420
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Speaker 1: and then say, okay, fourth quarter, their training wheels are off,

421
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Speaker 1: go do the thing and go win the game now.

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00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 1: And look they usually do, but sometimes they don't. Then

423
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 1: that's why the teams are so frustrating. With Denver, I

424
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 1: kind of think they have to play that way because

425
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,879
Speaker 1: that's bo Nicks. With the Packers, that especially frustrating. You

426
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: have Jordan Love go do the thing. Stop going around

427
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 1: to the fourth quarter. But this game, I'm just gonna

428
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,120
Speaker 1: play the fourth quarter angle over eleven and a half

429
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 1: points in the fourth quarter. I'm gonna tell you, I

430
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 1: don't think I've ever played a fourth quarter total before,

431
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 1: so this is a first. But Green Bay leads the

432
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 1: league in fourth quarter, scoring nine and a half points

433
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 1: a game. Denver is sixth at eight point three. These

434
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 1: are not high scoring teams, so that really stands out.

435
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 1: And the Packers' games are ten to three to the

436
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 1: over in the fourth quarter, best in the league, so

437
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,440
Speaker 1: that matches up with this trend over eleven and a

438
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,639
Speaker 1: half in the fourth quarter. And if you like the

439
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 1: fourth quarter angles, there's some other fun sort of angles

440
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 1: you can play at books like at DraftKings, you can

441
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,199
Speaker 1: if you want, go both teams to score in the

442
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 1: fourth quarter. I don't mind that it's minus one fifty five.

443
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not gonna drink that sort of juice.

444
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,400
Speaker 1: I do like highest scoring quarter to be the fourth

445
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: quarter plus two to twenty five at DraftKings. That feels fun,

446
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 1: and look over eleven and a half might hit that

447
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 1: anyways if we hit it, because this is a pretty

448
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 1: low total game. And I actually kind of like the

449
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 1: under overall in the game despite the fourth quarter numbers,

450
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 1: so one more and we're really threading the needle on

451
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 1: this one, so don't go crazy fourth quarter over But

452
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 1: the game under forty two and a half is plus

453
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 1: four thirty at DraftKings. You have to put that one together.

454
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,919
Speaker 1: It's it's really tied here because we can't get to

455
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,919
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter and have a big explosion otherwise we

456
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 1: lose the under. You kind of need something like under

457
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 1: twenty eight points through three quarters. Hit that one, so

458
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 1: don't go crazy. But I think we get sort of

459
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: a dreadful nothing game for most of the game, and

460
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: these teams hold everything back and it all comes down

461
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 1: to those last couple drives both ways, and that's what

462
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 1: we've seen with Packers and Broncos games all season, so

463
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 1: we may as well bet it fourth quarter over and

464
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 1: some of those other fourth quarter angles along the way.

465
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know the way I think, and

466
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 2: I think we kind of bet the similar ways here.

467
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: I would be interested in like over eleven and a

468
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 2: half fourth quarter under forty five and a half, Like

469
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 2: if you just pushed it up a little bit to

470
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,639
Speaker 2: give yourself some room over some key numbers, you'd probably

471
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 2: still get like three in change. But I agree. I

472
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 2: mean that's the angle to take, Like both teams really

473
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 2: good defense, and then all of a sudden they both

474
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 2: realize it's the fourth quarter and you get some you know,

475
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: crazy scoring, fluke scoring, however you want to call it.

476
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,360
Speaker 2: You mentioned green Bay fourth quarter overs. I mean they're

477
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: nine to four second half over as well. And the

478
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,919
Speaker 2: thing that shocked me even Denver seven and six to

479
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 2: the over in the fourth quarter. So even a defense

480
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: like that, they've found some offense in that quarter as well.

481
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 2: Here's the one I really like. So when bo Nicks

482
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 2: and Jordan Love are trailing here, which given this scenario

483
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 2: wouldn't be a bad thing for your bet. Seventeen touchdowns

484
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 2: two interceptions combined, so if you expect some serious offense

485
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 2: when one of these teams falls behind, and then the

486
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 2: one from Love in one hundred and forty six pass

487
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 2: attempts when trailing Love has only been sacked once, which

488
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 2: I really like if Denver ends up getting the lead here,

489
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 2: especially for your bet, so to me makes complete sense.

490
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: But I also think there's a lot of fun ways

491
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 2: to alp this, which I think you've kind of alluded to,

492
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,360
Speaker 2: so all over it as well. Honestly, it's a fun

493
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 2: way to watch the game, so let's do it. Yeah.

494
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 1: I think it will be a fun close, like one

495
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 1: of those games we sort of forget is even on

496
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: on red zone until suddenly we have fireworks at the end.

497
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: This is the sort of game like this game is

498
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: gonna be high on our rundown Sunday because the teams

499
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: are so good. But if it wasn't, this would be

500
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: one of those games I like starts in our YadA

501
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 1: YadA section at the bottom, and then in the fourth

502
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 1: quarter we just keep slowly moving it up. It's like, oh,

503
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: look at this law, It's an interesting game. Now, like

504
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: that's that's the sort of script we're hoping for here.

505
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: That is ideal. All right, let's go to the next

506
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: one here, Chicago and Cleveland. How are you attacking this one?

507
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 1: Yeah? I like the team total over for the Bears here,

508
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: so give me the over twenty three and a half.

509
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: This is an interesting game for the Bears because, look,

510
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: I've lived in this area for two decades now. The

511
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 1: Bears always lose this game, like this exact game of like, oh,

512
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: it's a good Bears team, We're doing pretty well. They're

513
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,399
Speaker 1: favored by over a touchdown. It's the Browns. That is

514
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: the game the Bears always lose. But I think these

515
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 1: Bears are really a different team because of Ben Johnson.

516
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 1: And I think that Ben Johnson is why I like

517
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: this beat here. It's a cold, blustery looking game, probably

518
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,400
Speaker 1: sub zero wind chills again, a lot of wind. That

519
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: means emphasis on the run game, which is quite fine

520
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: for both these teams. They prefer that anyway, but I

521
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 1: think it's advantaged Chicago. We've talked all year about how

522
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,479
Speaker 1: good their run game has become with Ben Johnson. Malik

523
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 1: Collins defensive tackle for the Browns. He's a big miss

524
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 1: on this one, and the Browns defense actually is go

525
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 1: what as they've been have been below average and allowing explosives.

526
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 1: Chicago has been one of the most explosive teams in

527
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 1: the league. They can do that by run as well.

528
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: I think they can hit some of those and get

529
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 1: some longer plays. The Browns have also been awesome pressure rate.

530
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: We know that with Miles Garrett Caleb Williams. One of

531
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 1: the biggest things he's improved at this year is dealing

532
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 1: with pressure. The Bears are top five EPA per play

533
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 1: against pressure and blitz on the season, so I think

534
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 1: they can find some answers. And it's a Browns game,

535
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: so it's a low total thirty eight and a half.

536
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 1: They have to make the total low, but I think

537
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 1: that is suppressing the Bears team total to twenty three

538
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: and a half. Chicago has gone over that number all

539
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: but one of their wins this season, So no escalator

540
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,880
Speaker 1: here because five of their rate on nine wins they're

541
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: right at twenty four, twenty five, twenty six, so it's

542
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 1: right in that range. But they consistently are hitting this

543
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: and Ben Johnson typically especially after halftime, is really finding answers.

544
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 1: So don't be surprised if this starts slow. I can't

545
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: find a second half team total anyway. Otherwise I might

546
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: have gone just second half team total over, but I

547
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: don't mind the whole game. And here's the key stat

548
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: here for this from klev To on Twitter. Lots of

549
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 1: great trends that he puts out. Since twenty twenty three,

550
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: when the Browns are on the road, opponents are now

551
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 1: twenty one and four to the team total over by

552
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 1: almost a full touchdown the Browns, who in two of

553
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 1: those three seasons have been one of the league's best defenses.

554
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: It's a totally different game on the road. And I

555
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 1: think it has to do with this kind of weird

556
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: suppressing the total because the Browns are such a low

557
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: total team that the other opponent, if they can just

558
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: put up any points, probably gonna get there. So no escalators,

559
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 1: no alts or anything here, just a straight Bears team

560
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: total over twenty three and a half. Sort of a

561
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: proxy for a Bears win to me.

562
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the Ben Johnson effect. They're ten and

563
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 2: three to their team total over this year, four and

564
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 2: one at home, and to show the example, last year,

565
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: eight and nine to the over the year before that

566
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 2: eight and nine to the over, so this is a

567
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 2: very different offense. And then you look at this as

568
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 2: a favorite this year, Chicago's averaging thirty point four points

569
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 2: per game, Cleveland on the road this year allowing twenty

570
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 2: seven eight. All the numbers are kind of telling you

571
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 2: that people are looking at Cleveland's defense and thinking one thing,

572
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 2: especially maybe Miles Garrett, when in reality it's a totality thing,

573
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 2: and I think Chicago's number is just a little bit

574
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 2: too low in this situation. I think you agree, Yeah,

575
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: all right, next game it is Vegas and Philly this time.

576
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: I've been talking about this on a bunch of shows

577
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 2: this week, and the fact that total this low, a

578
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 2: spread this high feels just something we don't see every day.

579
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: So it feels like it's an under. Do you agree?

580
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: I agree? I'm going under here. Eagles under is that's

581
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 1: just where we're living until we find otherwise. We played

582
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: it Monday night. It was dreadful all the way down

583
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: to the end, but we got to the under.

584
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: There.

585
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 1: We're back for another under here. Eagles games are just

586
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 1: dreadful right now. Eagles offense is down to twenty seventh

587
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 1: in success rate for the season, Jalen Hurts disastrous on

588
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 1: thrown it all over the place. The one thing he's

589
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 1: supposed to be good at is not making mistakes, and

590
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: now that is gone. Right now. Eagles defense looks great,

591
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 1: but that makes these games even worse because the Eagles

592
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 1: are like, what I should we just play defense and

593
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 1: do nothing all game and hope that like two or

594
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: three times Saquan or aj or somebody hits a big

595
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: play and look, it kind of works. Usually just hasn't

596
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: been good enough lately. The Raiders are awful. The Raiders

597
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: have been the worst team in the league for six

598
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: seven weeks. Now they're the worst running team in the league.

599
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 1: That's not gonna happen here. And now we got Kenny

600
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: Pickett in this game. To the Gino, I know Gino

601
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 1: has been great, but I can't really give much love

602
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 1: to Kenny Pickett. The Raiders, I don't know how they're

603
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: gonna score in this game. Their bottom five success rate

604
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: EPA explosives. Eagles are a lead against tight ends, so

605
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: that's not good for brock Bauers. Eagles play a lot

606
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: of light boxes. The Raiders are worse than the league

607
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: EPA against light boxes. They cannot run the football. I

608
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 1: don't see them scoring, especially here another freezing temps, windy game,

609
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: windy unders. We know sixty one percent last five seasons,

610
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 1: so that sets the up that way. And it's a

611
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 1: short week for the Eagles. This feels to me like

612
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: twenty ten Philly ugly win. Just get back on track

613
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 1: and get out of here. Since the bye week, five

614
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 1: games for the Eagles sixteen point two points a game

615
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: that is so low. For reference, the Raiders are fifteen

616
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: point one for the season, and that's last in the NFL.

617
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: The Eagles are only a point ahead of that. Since

618
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 1: their bye week, there games are averaging thirty three point

619
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: four in that stretch. They're now eight and five to

620
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: the under on the season. Kenny Pickett unders when the

621
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,959
Speaker 1: totals below forty four sixty eight percent, and Kenny Pickett

622
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: rode unders in his career eighty two percent. Admittedly not

623
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: the strongest trends there because we're factoring some Steelers into

624
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: the Kenny Pickett up with that all but will include

625
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: in anyways. And then team agnostic teams are totals thirty

626
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: eight or below, which I think this one will get to.

627
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the under thirty eight and a

628
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: half here, but thirty eight or below that dropped by

629
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: over four points like this one has from the open

630
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: thirty eight to twenty seven and two to the under

631
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent. So when the total plummet's like this

632
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: and gets down the slow as usual, they can't make

633
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: it low enough. Raiders have already had six games this

634
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 1: season at thirty four or bolel And look, we talked

635
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 1: about the Eagles under hitting. The Raiders did not hit

636
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 1: their under last week and one of the worst beats

637
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: of the season. They owe a lot of us some

638
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: under money. I think it's time to pay the piper.

639
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: The thing that's crazy about those Picket under numbers is

640
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 2: it's eighteen and seven in his career, But to me,

641
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 2: it's the three point three points per game to the

642
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 2: under like it's usually not even close. And this one,

643
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 2: even sitting at thirty eight thirty eight and a half,

644
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 2: probably should be like in that thirty five range given

645
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 2: our history here the other one you mentioned it, Philly's

646
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 2: gone under now in five straight games, first time they've

647
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 2: done that since twenty twenty. This is just a different

648
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 2: Philly offense and again maybe a different Philly defense, which

649
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 2: is helping out these totals.

650
00:30:54,560 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: Conder see the Lightning roundunder.

651
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: It is Lightning Round time. You got some like some

652
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 2: spread stuff, some money line stuff, but mostly props. Let's

653
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: start with that Lions Rams game. We know you like

654
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 2: Lions money line, but what else you're doing there?

655
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm gonna kind of work my way toward

656
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: Lions money line. But it's this slipped into our kind

657
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: of transition into the Lightning because I'm going with the

658
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: Pukainakua Escalator as well, so we'll kind of do both

659
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: along the way. This is the underdog. I chose for

660
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 1: pick six and start out with the stakes. This game

661
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: I think is much more important for Detroit. The Rams

662
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 1: play Thursday night in Seattle. That's the game the Rams

663
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: need to win. If they win that one, they are

664
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: ninety percent plus to win the division. And if they

665
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: win that one and then beat the Falcons and the

666
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: Cards afterward, they're ninety five percent to the one seed.

667
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: Regardless of this game, they don't need this. It's a bonus.

668
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: It's the rivalry Stafford golf game. They don't need this.

669
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: They need to stay healthy and get to Thursday. That's

670
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: what they need. The Lions need this. The Lions are

671
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: forty percent to make the playoffs, but if they win

672
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 1: this game and either beat the Bears in the finale

673
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: or beat the Steelers and Vikings in between, they're ninety

674
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: percent to make the playoffs. So this is the big swing.

675
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: This is the one they're not supposed to win, but

676
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: if they get it can kind of change the whole season.

677
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 1: And if they lose it, they drop to thirty percent.

678
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 1: They kind of have to win out and get help

679
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 1: from there. So I think that sets up for Dan

680
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 1: Campbell to be coaching more aggressively, the players to play

681
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: more aggressively. Detroit's on extra rest after Thursday night, the

682
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: Rams are coming up on short rest. They just want

683
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 1: to get to Thursday. So I think that that sets

684
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 1: up in a really favorable spot for the Lions. And look,

685
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 1: both teams are really good. We know that the Rams

686
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 1: are definitely the healthier side, but both teams are top

687
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: five offense and defense by DVAA. And there's certainly a

688
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: version of this game where you don't want the Lions

689
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 1: because their secondary is missing both star safeties and Tiry Arnold,

690
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 1: their top corner, probably Stafford might light them up completely

691
00:32:56,520 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 1: last three games when they've played Detroit, they have relentlessly

692
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: attacked what is a very man heavy scheme and they

693
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 1: go to the go to receivers. So here's we're going

694
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 1: to get to the Pukinakua stuff. Now. Lions bottom ten

695
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 1: DVAA against wide receiver one, second most fantasy points allowed

696
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 1: in those They've allowed eleven catches for one hundred and

697
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: forty nine yards in the last three games when Goff

698
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 1: and Stafford had switched sides here, So that's the wide

699
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: receiver one eleven catches one to forty nine, including one

700
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: of those games Pukinakua nine for one to eighty one,

701
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 1: one of the biggest games of his career. This is

702
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 1: what they do is they've been attacking man to man

703
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 1: and hitting deep and the Lions are pretty vulnerable that way.

704
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 1: So if it goes that way heavily, that may not

705
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: feel great. We've talked a lot about RAMS thirteen personnel,

706
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: maybe not the week for that. The whole point of

707
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: thirteen is to force opponents to get more linebackers on

708
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: the field. The Lions want their linebackers on the field.

709
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: That's the way they want to play anyway, So maybe

710
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: less thirteen personnel might mean more pukin akua, less tight

711
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: put our star receiver out there. And if you look,

712
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: he got injured in the middle of the season. For

713
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 1: a five week stretch, he was down to barely fifty

714
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 1: percent snap rate, six targets a game, five catches. The

715
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 1: other eight games before and now since then seventy four

716
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: percent snap rate, almost twelve targets a game, nine catches,

717
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixteen yards. Here's the problem. Books never

718
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 1: really adjusted the lines down, so we don't get to

719
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 1: like buy back in low. We actually have to pay

720
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: basically even oz to hit one hundred yards. So Detroit's

721
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: only a lot one hundred yard receiver five times despite

722
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 1: lots of production. This not usually huge production. Here's the

723
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 1: two puka props. I'm going to play ten receptions is

724
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: plus two to twenty one hundred and fifty yards as

725
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,879
Speaker 1: plus four fifty one at DraftKings. So I'm gonna kind

726
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: of just go for some higher rungs on the old

727
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 1: escalator and try some Puka stock that way. Now wind

728
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 1: it back to how do I get to Lions from there? Well,

729
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 1: here's the thing. Despite all that production that they've been

730
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 1: having in this matchup. The Lions won the last two

731
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 1: games anyway, and I think that's because Detroit has a

732
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 1: lot of stylistic problems to give the Rams that other

733
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 1: teams have given them. The Rams loss of this year

734
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 1: are Eagles, Niners, Panthers. What are those teams have in common? Physical,

735
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 1: bruising rush, attack, control of the clock against this small,

736
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: speedy pass rush of the Rams. They don't want to

737
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 1: play a physical game. They want to play a fast game.

738
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 1: The Rams barely beat the Colts and the Seahawks, two

739
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: more teams that play that same sort of style. That's

740
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: Lions football. Run the ball, bite, kneecaps, come after you,

741
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: and look if those speedy passworders get the GoF that's

742
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: gonna be a big problem. We know that's not going

743
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 1: to go well. If you get the ball out and

744
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: they can run the football. That's the underdog script I

745
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier preseason lines. The preseason line on this game

746
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 1: was Lions favored by a point and a half. We

747
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: are a full touchdown move the other way, and I

748
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: know there's some line injuries. The Lions have been good.

749
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 1: Man like this game, Shannada moved a full touchdown toward

750
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 1: the Rams. I just think the line is too high here,

751
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: and I think this matters more to Detroit. So I'm

752
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: gonna play the money line plus two twenty five and

753
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 1: again if you listen and go back to the pick

754
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,319
Speaker 1: six plus five seventy one, if you add in those

755
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 1: other big favorites, and I'll even add one other thing.

756
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,879
Speaker 1: I don't mind if you parlay in some of those

757
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 1: Puoka props with the Lion's money line, even though it

758
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 1: feels backwards because Detroit has been winning games giving up

759
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,439
Speaker 1: big passing yardage. Those things can go together here as well.

760
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 1: But I got my eye on this one. I think

761
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 1: Detroit should be in the playoffs, and I think they

762
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:41,720
Speaker 1: get there with a win here.

763
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: You and MEBA think in the exact same way. I

764
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: was going to talk about trying to combine the two,

765
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 2: but I'll go with your game script here. So as

766
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 2: a dog of four points or more as a duo,

767
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 2: Goff and Campbell seventeen and three against the spread, covering

768
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: by five point two points per game. As a dog

769
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 2: of four more when the total is above forty nine,

770
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 2: which God blessed this is. At fifty five, they are

771
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 2: ten and oh against the spread, never not covered so

772
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: great situation there, and that line seems to be just climbing.

773
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 2: And here's the other one. I found this kind of interesting.

774
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 2: So when the Rams are trailing this year, which understandably

775
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 2: is not often, here are the numbers between Pooka and

776
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 2: the Devonte Adams. So Pooka thirty six receptions for four

777
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty nine yards, forty four targets, Davonte sixteen

778
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 2: receptions for two seventy five and thirty two targets. Obviously,

779
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: Pooka is that type of receiver for them to get

780
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 2: them not only to hold leads, but also to get

781
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 2: them back into games. And I think that hits the receptions.

782
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 2: I think that hits the yards, and I think that's

783
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 2: also an interesting play with maybe Detroit plus the points.

784
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 2: But hey, we're on a podcast. We're having fun here,

785
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 2: you might as well throw in the money line. So

786
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 2: I'm with you there. I think you talk about maybe

787
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 2: it not being the game script. I think it's god

788
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 2: damn perfect. So I'm completely with you there. I like

789
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 2: it all right, Let's keep going here. You are interested

790
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 2: in a running back escalator against maybe the worst rush

791
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 2: defense I've seen in a while, And I'm sitting in

792
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 2: that state right now, in that city. So Washington Giants,

793
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 2: what are you doing?

794
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, not really interested in this game? Doesn't matter to anybody,

795
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,280
Speaker 1: but doesn't mean we can't play it yet another game.

796
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: I have near a coin flip, and I'm going with

797
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 1: the man by the name of Chris Rodriguez, who can't

798
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 1: say I even knew much about before the season. But

799
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play a little Chris rod Escalator. I don't know.

800
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 1: Is he Chris rod c Rode? What's how we do

801
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: nicknames these days? Right? So the trends actually kind of

802
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 1: push under here. Dart offense has been better than you think.

803
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: Washington's offense top ten success rate, so I think we'll

804
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: get some movement here. I started with receivers. Both these

805
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 1: teams allow top five Fantasy receiver points, but again windy

806
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:55,760
Speaker 1: freezing attempts. I still like Wandel Robinson six catches plus

807
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 1: one eighteen He's done that four or five starts with Dart.

808
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: Those are all like five yard throws anyways, Like the

809
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,839
Speaker 1: temperature is not gonna affect that too much. But yes,

810
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: as you said, Giants, run defense. That's the angle that

811
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: we're going for here. Last in DVAA, last in EPA

812
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 1: their worst in the league. Inside run off of defense,

813
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,399
Speaker 1: that's where Washington is best running the football. And right

814
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: now that no longer means Bill Jacorey Krossky merit, he's out.

815
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: It's Chris Rodriguez season. He's coming off his three highest

816
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: snap counts of the season. He's had average of twelve

817
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: carries fifty seven yards, pretty modest, but he's getting over

818
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: half the running back carries for Washington. He's become their

819
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 1: running back one. And if you look this season with

820
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 1: the Giants, they've had four games where the opponent either

821
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 1: didn't really have a clear running back, one split carry situation,

822
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,240
Speaker 1: or the guy got hurt. In the other nine games,

823
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:47,800
Speaker 1: those running backs are averaging one hundred and eleven yards

824
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: a game. They can't stop anybody. So Sea Rods had

825
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 1: at least ten carries at least forty one yards rushing

826
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: in this last three game stretch. Well, he's kind of

827
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 1: become that guy. And this to me screams that dude

828
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 1: that shows up on your opponent's fantasy roster and swings

829
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 1: the game and the fantasy playoffs. Chris Rodriguez the name

830
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,280
Speaker 1: you're like cursing forever get him on your team instead,

831
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:12,359
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the over forty eight and a half

832
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 1: rushing yards, and then we'll play the escalator a little bit.

833
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 1: His best game this year came in this last stretch

834
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: fifteen carries seventy nine yards the Giants when they face

835
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: opposing running back one. That's the clear starter eight of

836
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 1: nine games eighty yards or more. So could we get

837
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 1: see Rod's best game of the season eighty yards plus

838
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 1: four to seventy five and I gotta do it. One

839
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 1: hundred yards is twelve to one. I don't know if

840
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,959
Speaker 1: Rodriguez can push that high, but the Giants are gonna

841
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 1: let you if anybody can do it. So give me

842
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: the twelve to one as well, and let's see if

843
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 1: we can get one of those backbreaking no name Fantasy

844
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 1: Superstar explosions.

845
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. Nick Giffen talks about it all the time, and

846
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 2: you talk about the trailing team and running back overs.

847
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 2: I think no matter what the situation, it's a big

848
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 2: game agnostic. Like the spreads through about three points, it

849
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 2: can kind of go either way. I also really like

850
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 2: this prop because of Mariota. Like Jayden, Daniel is kind

851
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: of a bit of a question mark with Mariota, I

852
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:09,919
Speaker 2: expect them to give him the rock. And the two

853
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 2: stats from Giants rush defense, well three point one yards

854
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:18,720
Speaker 2: before contact per attempt, worst in the NFL. That's over

855
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 2: three yards before the Giants even touch him, which is

856
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 2: absolutely honestly ridiculous. And then the other one, which is

857
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 2: just as ridiculous, a seventeen percent explosive run rate against

858
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 2: the Giants, that is percent of total rush attempts. The

859
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 2: next closest is below fifteen percent. It's a two percent difference,

860
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 2: which is absolutely monstrous in that category. So, I mean,

861
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 2: Rodriguez could get this in two or three carries, but

862
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 2: you mentioned it. He's the belcoalut there and when I

863
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 2: say bellcout, it's slight. But he's beaten JSM, JCM in two, three,

864
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 2: four games now. He is clearly the guy. So no

865
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 2: matter what the score is, I think this is probably

866
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 2: the right call. It might be honestly kind of easy.

867
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I hope. So I think the standard

868
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 1: line the forty and a half seems quite low from

869
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 1: what you think for a bell cow like it's a

870
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: small pie that you're getting the big portion out of,

871
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 1: but it's still the whole pie that you're getting. So, yeah,

872
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 1: I hope we will get easy on the over and

873
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,760
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked to see it relatively easy hitting

874
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 1: some of those alts as well, if the game script

875
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 1: goes our direction.

876
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, anything else you like in this game? Keep rolling now.

877
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: I don't want to watch anything about this game. I

878
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:29,840
Speaker 1: just want to see see Rod hit some big runs.

879
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 2: Fantastic. All right, let's now talk Saints Panthers storyline. Here's

880
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 2: got to be the fact that Carolina hasn't won a

881
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 2: goddamn game they've been favored in since twenty twenty one.

882
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 2: But that's not the direction we're headed in. Of course,

883
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 2: if you're facing Carolina, all we want to talk about

884
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 2: is tight end. So what are you doing with Juwan?

885
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we got to have a long shot tight

886
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: end play each week, I guess on the podcast. So

887
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 1: Juwan Johnson, come on down. You're the next contest on

888
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 1: the prices. Right back to tight ends against Carolina. I'm

889
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: not playing aside here. This is yet another game. I'm

890
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: basically a coin flip on. Saints are a bad match

891
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,720
Speaker 1: for Carolina. We picked them last time for the upset

892
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 1: when the Panthers were favorites Carolina is not a good favorite.

893
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: We've talked about that a lot high like the tight

894
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 1: end Angil Carolina last in the league DVA against tight ends,

895
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:16,760
Speaker 1: bottom five, defending the middle six, most yards allowed. Juwan

896
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 1: Johnson's snaps are down actually since Taysom Hillcot came back,

897
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 1: but his stats have not dropped at all despite less

898
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 1: stats or less snaps because he's catching about eighty percent

899
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 1: of his balls now. I think Tyler Shuck is delivering

900
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 1: a better ball to Juwan Johnson than Spencer Ratler was.

901
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 1: He's still been with Shuck five and a half targets

902
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 1: a game, four and a half catches forty nine yards,

903
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 1: so I started at over three and a half receptions.

904
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: He's done that for the five Shuck games, minus one thirty. Eh.

905
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 1: I don't need a minus one thirty on a no

906
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 1: name tight end like this. Give me the yards instead.

907
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 1: Thirty eight yards. That's a pretty easy line. He's hit

908
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: that four in a row, so over thirty seven and

909
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: a half. And then let's go five receptions plus one

910
00:43:57,640 --> 00:43:59,959
Speaker 1: sixty five. He's done that in over half his game

911
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: this season twice with Shock already and then seventy yards

912
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 1: as the top of the escalator in the in the

913
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: game against Carolina last time, four catches ninety two yards

914
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 1: kind of broke a long touchdown. Probably not gonna get

915
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 1: lucky that one again. But he's hit seventy three times

916
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 1: this season and the Panthers allowed to seventy three other

917
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: times than just that Juwan Johnson game. So seventy yards

918
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 1: five to one odds something to watch for in this game,

919
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: hopefully not much else.

920
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you'd like Carolina to get a lead.

921
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 2: Probably helps his bet a tiny bit, but I think

922
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:33,240
Speaker 2: it's a little agnostic. I think it probably works either way.

923
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,800
Speaker 2: The two stats, and we talked about this all the time.

924
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 2: Tight Ends versus Carolina it's absurd. Zero point five a

925
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:42,919
Speaker 2: half EPA per play when targeted and that's just tight ends.

926
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 2: First Carolina, it's second in the NFL. And then this

927
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 2: stat versus sports Info, which comes from Sports Info Solutions,

928
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: kind of incredible. Ninety two point eight percent deserved catch

929
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 2: rate for tight ends against Carolina, that is second in

930
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 2: the NFL. That is completions and drops divided by the

931
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 2: number of catchable targets and passes defended. So basically, just

932
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 2: throw him the ball and there's nothing They can do

933
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 2: about it, and it's kind of worked all season long

934
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 2: against them. And Juwan has his moments like he is

935
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:14,400
Speaker 2: a very good downfield, gets catches, can run like he

936
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 2: has a good tight end. Shuck's been running a little bit,

937
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 2: but I think they might adjust some things to try

938
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 2: to find him the ball. So Carolina New Orleans looking

939
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 2: at Jawan Johnson, All right, we got three more props

940
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 2: here before we get to the look ahead. What are

941
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 2: you doing with Christian McCaffrey.

942
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 1: We're doing a Christian McCaffrey touchdown. We're playing the Titans.

943
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 1: This is not a hard case to make. This was

944
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 1: a pretty easy pick six choice with the Niners. The

945
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 1: poor Titans. They are now all in ten this season

946
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 1: against current top eight seeds, so teams in the top

947
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 1: half the league. Ten. That's all but three other games.

948
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 1: They're two and one of the other games. But here

949
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 1: they are playing the Niners, another one of those top teams.

950
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:49,879
Speaker 1: So the Niners are going to score. We know that

951
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: McCaffrey touchdown feels like a free space. Titans rush touchdowns

952
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: top three in the league. All about three running back ones.

953
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 1: I think the three that I played, probably because it's

954
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,919
Speaker 1: not gone well, so I'm skipping the CMC touchdown. It's

955
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 1: minus two to seventy five. You can't get me there.

956
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: He's scored a touchdown a nine to thirteen, but look

957
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,760
Speaker 1: a little closer. In three of the last five wins

958
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 1: he's had multiple touchdowns. So I'm gonna go straight pass

959
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: one touchdown right to two plus one seventy touch a

960
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:21,280
Speaker 1: little bit on three touchdowns plus six fifty and mostly mostly,

961
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 1: if I'm being honest, I just want to talk about

962
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey Offensive Player of the Year twenty five to one.

963
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,280
Speaker 1: This was my extra point in the pick six article,

964
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 1: So we talked about this, Jonathan Taylor probably drawing dead

965
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 1: at this point with no quarterback. Well maybe a quarterback again,

966
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 1: we'll see it looks by the books like it's Jackson

967
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 1: Smith and Jigma. That's how the odds have gone, but

968
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 1: both him and Pukinakua faded a little bit. McCaffrey right

969
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 1: now only five scrimmage yards behind Jonathan Taylor because he

970
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 1: catches so many passes. He's only four receptions behind JSN

971
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 1: on the season. He right now is on pace to

972
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 1: easily be one thousand thousand guy rushing and receiving only

973
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 1: three times in NFL history. As that happened, one of

974
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 1: them was McCaffrey. He's on pace to be our first

975
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 1: one thousand and fifty fifty guy. Ever, I kind of

976
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:11,399
Speaker 1: said this in the article. I think Christian McCaffrey can

977
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: make a case as the NFL show Hey Otani like

978
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 1: he's kind of one of the best in the league

979
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: running and receiving. He shouldn't be that good. He's a

980
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 1: chance to lead the league in rushing attempts and receptions.

981
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,840
Speaker 1: He's not that far off both of those. You shouldn't

982
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 1: be able to do that. They play Titans, Colt Spears.

983
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 1: Those are gettable defenses. And then here's the fun part

984
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 1: in the finale, it's Seattle second most receptions allowed to

985
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 1: running backs. He had nine catches the first game against them.

986
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 1: And if it is JSN for Offensive Player of the Year,

987
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 1: how about a head to head showdown to end the season.

988
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 1: Elen McCaffrey have a shot to steal the award if

989
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 1: he's right there against JSN. So if you want to

990
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 1: go one thousand receiving yards alone, you can bet that

991
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 1: just two to one. But I think he's in the

992
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 1: mix here. Twenty five to one Offensive Player of the

993
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 1: Year in a race that still feels open with Taylor out.

994
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,360
Speaker 1: So hopefully we get started with two or three touchdowns

995
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 1: against the Titans like everybody else does, and that will

996
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: give us a push in the right direction.

997
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, something you would assume is correct actually is because

998
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 2: I looked it up and I was curious. So in

999
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 2: McCaffrey's last five games as a favorite above a touchdown,

1000
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 2: he has six total touchdowns in those five games. So

1001
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 2: in what you would assume happens actually does happen, which

1002
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 2: is nice to see when betting, especially entering this type

1003
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,959
Speaker 2: of game. Talked about the Titans rush defense eighteen rush

1004
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 2: touchdowns allowed, Like the date is there. We've kind of

1005
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 2: talked about it all year. But with the rushing you mentioned,

1006
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 2: probably the most interesting part of this bet, which is

1007
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,280
Speaker 2: CMC's receiving. That's probably the angle that makes his bet

1008
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 2: what it is. Here's the one I like. When San

1009
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:43,479
Speaker 2: Francisco leads this year, CMC has twenty nine receptions that's

1010
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 2: tied for sixth in the NFL all players, and he

1011
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 2: has three receiving touchdowns when San Francisco's leading. So to me,

1012
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 2: all the script is kind of pushing that way and

1013
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 2: the way I just kind of thought of this and

1014
00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 2: I found it kind of interesting. The way that San

1015
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 2: Francisco uses McCaffrey is what I think the Raiders are

1016
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: trying to do with genty but failing. So this is

1017
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 2: the guy that's doing in this in this scenario, because

1018
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 2: you see them throw the ball at the gent like

1019
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 2: they're doing all these things to try to get him

1020
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 2: involved like that the forty nine ers are doing McCaffrey.

1021
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 2: But to me, this is the angle and that offensive

1022
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:19,959
Speaker 2: player of the year. I mean, Seattle has two big

1023
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:22,879
Speaker 2: games in like four or five days. You know, if

1024
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 2: JSN goes a little empty in those games and CMC

1025
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 2: does what you think, I think those odds are gonna

1026
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 2: come down a lot. All right, Two more left here,

1027
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase versus the Ravens. This one, this is kind

1028
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 2: of simple.

1029
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, you also want Jamar Chase against the Ravens. Yet

1030
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 1: another game I have as an almost a coin to flip.

1031
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: If it gets to three, I'll be tempted by Joe

1032
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 1: Burrow Underdog, even though I've missed out the last two weeks.

1033
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 1: Bengals defense awful, but you can tell the Ravens offense

1034
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: is broken. When I'm not playing Derrick Henry overs against

1035
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:54,080
Speaker 1: this defense, I'm not playing Ravens tight ends, none of those.

1036
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:57,800
Speaker 1: I'm going Jamar Chase, Ravens top ten most fantasy points allowed.

1037
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:01,359
Speaker 1: T Higgins is out. Jamar Chase the moon last three

1038
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 1: games against the Ravens seven for one hundred and ten

1039
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 1: earlier this season, but don't forget last year eleven for

1040
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 1: two sixty four and ten for one to ninety three,

1041
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:14,320
Speaker 1: including five touchdowns in those three games over fourteen targets

1042
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 1: a game. The Ravens had a lout one hundred and

1043
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 1: fourteen yards or more to a receiver in four the

1044
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 1: last seven games. So let's start with one hundred yards

1045
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:24,400
Speaker 1: for Chase easy plus one thirty five. He's already had

1046
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty yards or more twice this year,

1047
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 1: so let's go right to one fifty at seven to one,

1048
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 1: and then that line from last year eleven for two

1049
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 1: sixty four that came against Baltimore when T Higgins was out.

1050
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,839
Speaker 1: Music to my ears. Chase in his career, I say

1051
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety yards five times three against the Ravens.

1052
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 1: He has every healthy season of his career at least

1053
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 1: one game at one to ninety. Not this year, yet

1054
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 1: he's due. That's how stats work, right. One hundred and

1055
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 1: ninety yards is twenty two to one at DraftKings, and

1056
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 1: it's because I have to mention it. The highest thing

1057
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 1: DraftKings offers is two hundred yards. Ten yards more thirty

1058
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 1: two to one ten yards for ten to one better

1059
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 1: payout obligatory to play that one as well, even though

1060
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 1: I like the one to ninety for the trend. Jamar

1061
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:11,320
Speaker 1: Chase to the moon in a game against the Ravens.

1062
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 1: Just let it rip, Joe and let's see what happens.

1063
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 2: That ten to one on ten yards is honestly ridiculous. Crazy.

1064
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,359
Speaker 2: Here's the one that's also crazy. Since it started last year,

1065
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,880
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase has five hundred and sixty seven receiving yards

1066
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 2: versus the Ravens. The next closest for any player is

1067
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 2: Jerry Judy at two fourteen, difference of almost three hundred

1068
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 2: and fifty yards. Understandably, he had that humongous game. The

1069
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 2: other one that's crazy, uh, over twenty yards per reception

1070
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 2: on twenty eight receptions in that span. Over twenty yards

1071
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 2: per reception. It's been absolutely flamed for Chase. So let's

1072
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 2: continue with this weekend last one. Here another wide receiver

1073
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 2: that might absolutely kill their opponent. George Pickens, Vikings, what

1074
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 2: are you doing?

1075
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta finish with Sunday Night. My guy Jeff

1076
00:51:58,000 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 1: Cole follows us on Tony's going to the game with

1077
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 1: his buddies. He wanted a bet here, you wanted a

1078
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 1: long shot. I'm here with George Pickens. I kind of

1079
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:08,399
Speaker 1: lean Vikings, but I don't trust my my my Vikings here,

1080
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 1: power Ratings metrics kind of like them. But JJ McCarthy

1081
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:14,360
Speaker 1: on the road, Cowboys offense at home all is more dangerous.

1082
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,440
Speaker 1: I'm going to back the Cowboys offense here. Vikings twenty

1083
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 1: fifth YVA against wide receiver one dead last on EPA

1084
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:23,439
Speaker 1: per play one point one to nine EPA per play

1085
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 1: on deep balls for the season. That is a terrible number.

1086
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 1: The upside, the Vikings don't let you throw it deep

1087
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 1: that often, but the Cowboys attack deep pretty often, and

1088
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 1: they're at pointy eighty six EPA per play. So the

1089
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,439
Speaker 1: question then, is who's wide receiver one? Because it does

1090
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: look like Ceedee Lamb is practicing. We think we're gonna

1091
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 1: get both of them, I don't really care. I think

1092
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 1: George Pickens is wide receiver one in Dallas so far

1093
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 1: this year. And we just saw an embarrassing Pickens night

1094
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:50,760
Speaker 1: on thinking Thursday night. We saw him kind of quitting

1095
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 1: on routes. That's the big story. You loved to bet

1096
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:56,319
Speaker 1: the deva receiver in the bounce back spot after that? Right, Like,

1097
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:59,320
Speaker 1: how long have we seen this? Like Terrell Owens asked

1098
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 1: to me, And Minnesota's cornerbacks are very gettable. So Pickens

1099
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:06,120
Speaker 1: is second in the league in air yards this season,

1100
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 1: lambs outside the top fifteen. So if I'm gonna tack

1101
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 1: down the field, I think Pickens are the guy to get.

1102
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 1: The Vikings allowed a fifteen passes of twenty six yards

1103
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:18,439
Speaker 1: or more. Pickens has eleven of twenty seven or more.

1104
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 1: So longest reception over twenty five and a half for

1105
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 1: George Pickens and then touch on the escalator there forty

1106
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 1: yards longest reception is plus three to fifty. The Vikings

1107
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 1: have allowed thirty seven yards or longer seven times. Pickens

1108
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 1: has a thirty nine or longer in five of the

1109
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:37,440
Speaker 1: last nine games, over half of them. He's getting that

1110
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 1: one really big play down the field and then the

1111
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 1: Vikings don't really allow huge receiver games. So I'm gonna

1112
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 1: skip the seventy eight and a half yardage, even though

1113
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 1: Pickens hit that in seven straight games till last game.

1114
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna just go for one other big total. Here

1115
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:55,400
Speaker 1: Pickens has had one hundred and thirty four yards or

1116
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:57,879
Speaker 1: more four times. Let's go with one hundred and forty

1117
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,759
Speaker 1: yards seven to one and just hope we get a

1118
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,120
Speaker 1: couple of big plays and he look, Jeff Cole, if

1119
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,640
Speaker 1: you're listening, you're gonna be watching all night for like

1120
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 1: the one big play down the field, watching a Vikings

1121
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 1: game with existential dread for one big plays my entire existence.

1122
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 1: Welcome George Pickens' longest receptions.

1123
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like the blitz that Minnesota is so

1124
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: patinan for will help this prop as well. And here's

1125
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:23,680
Speaker 2: one for Jeff. You can have this one in your

1126
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 2: back pocket. But George has cashed a twenty seven plus

1127
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:32,240
Speaker 2: longest reception in thirteen straight games when his team wins

1128
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:35,720
Speaker 2: the game, which, understandably, you can say you like Dallas,

1129
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 2: I mean, you like Minnesota and the points understandably, but

1130
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 2: Dallas is probably gonna be favored by six by kickoff

1131
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 2: and if you're looking for thirty plus on that longest reception,

1132
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 2: he said that in eleven of twelve wins. So if

1133
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,520
Speaker 2: you like Dallas, it does kind of mesh a little bit.

1134
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:52,359
Speaker 2: So maybe that is a way to attack it. All right,

1135
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 2: look ahead, time, what are you doing? Let's talk ahead,

1136
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 2: excim a shot.

1137
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 1: How about next week we're going to Denver and backing

1138
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I think at back the Broncos last week,

1139
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 1: I guess they're slowly winning me over. Denver minus two

1140
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 1: and a half against Jacksonville at DraftKings. So Broncos to me,

1141
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 1: I mentioned this already now top ten in my power ratings.

1142
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's not won me over yet. I just can't quite

1143
00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 1: get there with this team. A lot of the DVOA,

1144
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:27,800
Speaker 1: a lot of the metrics I use are pretty even

1145
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:30,719
Speaker 1: on these teams. But Denver is trending up. Denver is

1146
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:34,360
Speaker 1: top five overall last seven games, top ten offense even,

1147
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 1: they're moving the right way, And to me, I just

1148
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: think these are kind of different weight classes teams. I'm

1149
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:42,399
Speaker 1: not there yet on Jacksonville. Now, look, if you look

1150
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 1: at the schedule this weekend, the lines say Jacksonville should

1151
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 1: smash the Jets. The Broncos might even lose. They're underdogs

1152
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 1: at home against the Packers, So why would you play

1153
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 1: Denver now the line should move the other way. Well,

1154
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:55,960
Speaker 1: I don't think that's what's gonna happen in those games.

1155
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:59,040
Speaker 1: We started with Jacksonville struggling against the Jets, and I

1156
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 1: think Denver has a real shit shot against green Bay.

1157
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 1: One book already has this game minus three with Broncos

1158
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:07,120
Speaker 1: every point matters, Like, I don't want to be betting

1159
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:09,439
Speaker 1: this at three and a half, I'll tell you that much.

1160
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 1: I want it below the key. If Denver beats the

1161
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 1: Packers or if Jacksonville struggles against the Jets, two and

1162
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,080
Speaker 1: a half is gone. You're not getting that line after that.

1163
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 1: So basically at two and a half with Denver homefield advantage,

1164
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 1: basically that's telling you these teams are equal. I don't

1165
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 1: think these teams are equal. I would make this more

1166
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 1: like Denver minus five. I just think Denver below the

1167
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: key number is an easy grab here before it gets away.

1168
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:35,520
Speaker 1: Broncos minus two and a half on the look ahead.

1169
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think by the time you get to this game,

1170
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 2: you'd be lucky to find Denver at under three at

1171
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 2: Action Network, we tend to get some early betting percentages

1172
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:47,280
Speaker 2: when lines get posted. If you got eighty five percent

1173
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 2: money tickets right now on Denver, I think no matter

1174
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 2: what happens, I think that line at least closes three,

1175
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 2: So you're gonna get some clb there. Alrighty, that'll do it.

1176
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 2: Here on the Action Howork podcast for NFL Week fifteen

1177
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 2: Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings. If you want instant

1178
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 2: notifications to when action experts track their bets, go to

1179
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:10,480
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1180
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:13,200
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1181
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:16,080
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1182
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1183
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:22,720
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1184
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:25,920
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1185
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 2: matter of seconds. And again, if you want to tell

1186
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:30,160
Speaker 2: some of the bets we gave out today, make sure

1187
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 2: to look for the quick slip link in the podcast

1188
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 2: and video description or actionework dot Com slash bet Now.

1189
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,880
Speaker 2: We will be back Sunday night for our NFL recap

1190
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 2: show that'll be live on Action Network YouTube age shortly

1191
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 2: after Sunday Night football. Thank you for listening, enjoy us late.

1192
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:49,000
Speaker 2: Good luck with all your bets this weekend, and good

1193
00:57:49,040 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 2: luck at the game. Jeffs. Action Network reminds you please

1194
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 2: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1195
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:14,320
Speaker 2: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

1196
00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 2: at one eight hundred Gambler