1 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:08,399 Speaker 1: Welcome in if riding to Fantasy pros MLB. It's time 2 00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: to make some trades. It is me, Joey p Joe 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: pisif here with me, of course is the Welsh, and 4 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: this is our last big trade video heading into the 5 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: latter part of the season, the stretch run. So if 6 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: you're in it, if you're out of it, or even 7 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: if you're looking ahead and keeper leagues, we're gonna do 8 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 1: our best to help you make the right moves to 9 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: do just that, which is success for the short and 10 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: the long term. We're gonna have all the success we 11 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 1: possibly can. And Welsh, I want to start with a 12 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 1: guy who's probably been one of the more disappointing assets 13 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: that we've seen all season long, Mookie Bets top five 14 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: overall selection, just eleven home runs on the season, six RBI. 15 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: And let's be honest too, the last thirty days of 16 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 1: not being kind to Mookie Bets, if you look at 17 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: some of the numbers for him, he has just one 18 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: home run over his last twenty five games here for him, 19 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 1: actually just two home runs. Pardon me, he's hitting a 20 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: buck eighty six over that period. Ops, Welsh, it's five 21 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: to oh seven now, I was concerned about Mookie Bets 22 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: going into the season because he had that illness or 23 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: he lost all the weight, and I thought, man, it's 24 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: a long season. This seems like a bad situation. But 25 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: then things started to go okay for him. But it 26 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: has not been very good towards the end of June 27 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: and beginning of July from Mookie Bets. But I want 28 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: to bet on the talent of a player at Mookie 29 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 1: Bets is extraordinary talent. Hopefully this All Star break is 30 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: exactly what he needs to reset. So if I'm looking 31 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: for a big time impact bat, a guy who can 32 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 1: do it all, I think Mookie Bets is worth that risk. 33 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:34,279 Speaker 1: What do you think? 34 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I agree with you too, because the 35 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 2: sentiment around him too is just so bad. Just like 36 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 2: you know, when you look at the first round, he 37 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 2: is probably at the tippy top or like right at 38 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 2: the cusp. I think who the Rodriguez was one of 39 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 2: those who we were buying in the last video that 40 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 2: we did. But I think Mooki is kind of in 41 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 2: that spot where the batting average is struggled. He's not 42 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 2: stealing bases, the homer, everything just looks very mediocre. But 43 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 2: you know, a lot of the metrics are just still there. 44 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 2: He's got expected batting average that's fifteen points higher. It's 45 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 2: really one of the lowest he's had in the last 46 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 2: like five or six years, but it is still higher. 47 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 2: He's not striking out. He does this launch angle sweet 48 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 2: spot thing where he gets the ball in the air 49 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 2: and pulls it. He's doing a decent job of that. 50 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 2: He's still got an over ninety percent zone contact even 51 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 2: if it's down. So it's like, wherever the downticks are, 52 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,239 Speaker 2: a lot of who Mookie bets is is still there. 53 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 2: So if ninety five percent of the Mookie that we 54 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 2: know is still there, then I think it's it's in 55 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 2: a safer place to start betting on. Like who we 56 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 2: know him from before, which is, you know, a thirty 57 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 2: plus home run guy. He struggled at home this year, 58 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 2: which seems like a kind of a weird thing. I 59 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 2: think he can bounce back. He's only two thirty eight 60 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 2: at home, which why that's important that they're one of 61 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 2: the best ballpark for rein headed hitters, for pull side homers, 62 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 2: and that is something that he specifically does. I talked 63 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 2: about launch angle, sweet spot. He is able to hit 64 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 2: the ball in away where he gets it in the 65 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 2: air and he drops bombs at home, and I think 66 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 2: he's going to kind of get back to that. He's 67 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 2: also weirdly struggled against slow lighters this year, like oddly, 68 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 2: it's like he's really really hitting poorly, but expected batting 69 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 2: averages really on most all pitch types are higher. So 70 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 2: I think, like we could talk about all the like, 71 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 2: you know, the logistics of why he's Mookie Betts. I 72 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 2: think that's another way we put it, Like we know 73 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 2: it's a Dodgers team who's gonna go hamm in the 74 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 2: second half. Mookie Betts has always been a first round 75 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 2: ish talent. He's really struggling. I think people are letting go, 76 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 2: and I think there are many metrics that are working 77 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 2: in his favor to say that it is a goodbye. 78 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 2: So that's kind of the layman's way to just go 79 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 2: about giving a little bit of justification on why you 80 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 2: should buy a player like Mookie Bets. 81 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 1: I'd also be buying Roman Anthony. Over his first one 82 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: hundred bats in the big leagues, it's very easy to 83 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: look and say, oh, two home runs and two steals, 84 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: two sixty four batting average, a seven to seventy seven 85 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: ops E I think to really get excited about or 86 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: see here, But I think that's wrong. I think if 87 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: you look at what he's been doing lately the last 88 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: fifteen games, he's think three seventy three over that span 89 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: with a four to thirty nine OBP and a five 90 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: twenty five slugging Roman Anthony starting to figure it out. 91 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: The Red Sox are getting hot. Alex Bregman is back 92 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: in that lineup now. I think this Red Sox renaissance 93 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: is for real, and I think Anthony is gonna be 94 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: one of these guys I would even say is really 95 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: in the think of it. You can get ten to 96 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: one on him for Rookie of the Year right now 97 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: in the American League. All of a sudden, Jacob Wilson's 98 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: going back to the pack a little bit here in 99 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 1: that race too. I could see Roman Anthony really making 100 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: a run of this in the second half, especially if 101 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 1: the Red Sox get carried not only to the playoffs 102 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 1: but maybe even dare I say, the American League East title. 103 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 1: I think Roman Anthony right now this might be the 104 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: last chance to buy him for any redraft league. 105 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 2: I actually like the betting angle to that too, because 106 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 2: they're on a big run. He's an important piece of it. 107 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 2: He's hitting you in a really important part of the lineup. 108 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 2: His profile looks really great. Fifty five percent hard hit 109 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 2: with a double digit barrel. That is chef's kiss. That 110 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 2: is exactly what you want. He's doing this all also 111 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 2: while not getting the ball really like pulling it in 112 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 2: the air. He's got an eight percent pull rate, which sucks, 113 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 2: and his launch angles three like those are both so 114 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 2: that what I'm getting at is there's a there's room 115 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 2: for improvement on that. And as far as pitch types go, 116 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 2: he's hitting over two to eighty against off speed and 117 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 2: breaking off speed and fastballs. He's breaking pitches. He's struggling, 118 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 2: but he's got an expected batting average. All right, I'm sorry, 119 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 2: it's the inverse. He's really beneficial on breaking pitches. It 120 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 2: is the fastballs that it's like around two fifty but 121 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 2: expected to eighty five. So I just think the quality 122 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 2: of contact again, layming it back like, the profile looks good. 123 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 2: The quality of contact is solid, and Roman Anthony's gonna 124 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 2: be a big piece of the Red Sox being successful 125 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 2: in the second half. So kind of a good rookie 126 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 2: bye right now and a great rookie bet. 127 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: Yes, I love the two have I already bet him 128 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: to win that award. I bet Misserroowski too when he 129 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: was ten to one. That's looking pretty decent, so fingers crossed. 130 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,280 Speaker 1: I learned my lesson last year. You know, I flew 131 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: too coast to the sun two years ago. I got 132 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: them both right, Corb and Carol Gunner Henderson got the 133 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 1: duo bet and felt so good. I felt cocky Welsh. 134 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 1: But I was like Icarus last year and I melted 135 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: just way too early, and on Rookie of the Year. 136 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 1: So I waited to lost break ish to get a 137 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: feel for it. Wait until June ish July, and then 138 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: I'm making my moves. And my moves were Miserowski number one, 139 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: number two, Roman Anthony, where you get him right now? 140 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: Our last buy? And I know this is asking a 141 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: lot because he's been here before, and I know he 142 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: threw up another stinker this past week. I get it. 143 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: But I can't get away from the deeper metrics on 144 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 1: Dylan ceas I just can't. He's got an eleven k 145 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 1: per nine, his walk rate is still at a reasonable 146 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 1: three walk per nine his expected era is still so 147 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 1: much lower than his actual era is there is at 148 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,119 Speaker 1: four to eight eight. The I can't imagine the cease 149 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: manager and I have zero shares this year. I can't 150 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: imagine where they're at, the frustrations they're at. Because the 151 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: expected era is three six, the fifth is three six nine, 152 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: and the X fIF is three four to three. All 153 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: of these metrics continue to scream, give Dylan Sees a break. 154 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: Hopefully he resets his brain and he comes back and 155 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 1: makes some adjustments to whatever is not going well for him, 156 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 1: or maybe it's just dumb luck. I don't know, but 157 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 1: I'm gonna die on this hill this year, and I 158 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 1: know I'm gonnaupset some people when I say buy Dylan Sees, 159 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: But I'm going to buy him for the stretch run 160 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: because there's not a lot of pitchers that I think 161 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: have that kind of talent, that kind of upside, that 162 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: are going to be available via trade who have struggled 163 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: consistently in that first half of the season. Ceases all 164 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: of those things, but all of the deeper numbers scream 165 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: that he could be better than what that three to 166 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: nine record shows you. 167 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 2: So this is a tough one. But I'm gonna side 168 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 2: with you on this, and this is I'm going to 169 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 2: take an L with it too, because I brought up 170 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 2: and we broke caught up Dylan Cez like a month 171 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 2: ago and it has not worked. And that's an L 172 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 2: because he has not turned it around. But why this 173 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 2: is doable right now is because he's at an all 174 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 2: time load Dylan Ceese. You know, as people were putting 175 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 2: Zach Allen out to past year, people are now replacing 176 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 2: that with Dylan Cees. Dylan Ceze is done. He has 177 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 2: not recouped a couple string of good games. He's got 178 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 2: an almost five VRA. He's in i think the top 179 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 2: five of worst qualified starter eras out there like it's bad. 180 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 2: He's giving up too many barrels. So the reason you 181 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 2: can jump into those waters now is you're getting You're 182 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 2: almost at the point where it's like you can only 183 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 2: go up. I mean hopefully not your ear a going up, 184 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 2: but you can only go up. But also to what 185 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 2: you're saying, like the expected numbers are telling us still 186 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 2: a story over a run better expected era around three 187 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 2: and a half. His strikeouts are the same as they 188 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 2: were last year. Twenty nine Elite percent. He's not walking 189 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 2: a whole lot more, He's just giving up a lot 190 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 2: more barreled contact. But the difference now is that cost 191 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 2: should be so much cheaper. So if you bought before, 192 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 2: think you got to kind of hold because it's not 193 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 2: worth cutting bait. But he is at such a frickin' 194 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 2: low right now that I think, like why not you 195 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 2: could probably you could probably get him for sps that 196 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 2: are in the forties, probably some guys that you picked 197 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 2: up off the wire at this point. Now, that's where 198 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 2: the level of frustration is, and there's still a really 199 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 2: great second half upside for a guy like Dylan. 200 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,199 Speaker 1: Cees agreed one hundred percent. Man, Again, it's a leap 201 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 1: of faith, but that's what you gotta do to win 202 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: championship sometimes and sometimes price anding, like we talked about 203 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: on Talent pays off. I mean, look at last week 204 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: we talked about Julia Rodriguez buying him mister second half. 205 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: He had a pretty damn good weekend. So hopefully you 206 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 1: listened last Tuesday when the show came out. Before we 207 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 1: get to the guys we want to sell high on, 208 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 1: don't forget about the trade analyzer. Don't make a move 209 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: without the tools of Fantasy Pros. Fantasy Baseball My Playbook 210 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: app is available wherever you get your apps, or just 211 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: go to Fantasypros dot com slash MLB My Playbook. Remember, 212 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: and you sink your leagues for free. You also upgrade 213 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 1: right now. You get six months take you all the 214 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:32,439 Speaker 1: way through NFL season as well as MLB and MLB playoffs. 215 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,680 Speaker 1: So right now use the trade analyzer to help you 216 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 1: evaluate all the moves you want to make in all 217 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 1: of your fantasy baseball leagues. Again, Fantasy Pros is here 218 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: for you Fantasypros dot Com slash MLB My Playbook or 219 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: just download the Fantasy Baseball My Playbook app. Today, let's 220 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: start with Caleb Durbin on the sell highs here Welsh, 221 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 1: and look, this is not a knock on what the 222 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: kid's been able to do, because the kid has been 223 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: really exciting. Caleb Durbin has been I think better than 224 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: you could have possibly asked him to be. I just 225 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: don't think it's enough. I think at the end of 226 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: the day, we are still going to get a replacement here, 227 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: and I still say Juhenio Suarez is that guy. So 228 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: I don't want to knock what Caleb Durban has been 229 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: able to do. I think we can all step back 230 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 1: and say, hey, good job, buddy. I mean, he's in 231 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:20,359 Speaker 1: three sixty five over the last thirty days. That's incredible. 232 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 1: He's got two home runs, He's got a nine oh 233 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 1: eight ops. I just don't know if that's exactly who 234 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: the Caleb Durban profile, considering he's a two to sixty 235 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: one hitter this season. So I think the Brewers are 236 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 1: for real. They're gonna go get another bat, and I 237 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 1: think Caleb Durban, unfortunately, is gonna be the odd man out. 238 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 1: What do you think. I think this is the time 239 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 1: to get out before the next two weeks hit and 240 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: he gets replaced. 241 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 2: What this speaks more to of is not that you 242 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 2: can get a great value for Caleb Durbin and that 243 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 2: you need to figure it out. If you're relying on 244 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 2: Caleb Durban, you probably need to get out. I think 245 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 2: I agree with you. I think they're gonna go and 246 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 2: make a move. I think Swarez would be a great fit. 247 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 2: Caleb Durban can then become like a super util guy. 248 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 2: I would feel different if I was seeing the Caleb 249 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 2: Durban that I saw in the al that broke the 250 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:05,679 Speaker 2: single season stolen based record all time. Even he's just 251 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,079 Speaker 2: not stealing at an incredibly great clip, but he is 252 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 2: hitting well, hitting three forty six in July two ninety 253 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 2: six this past month. I just don't think it's enough 254 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 2: for them to make the commitment so in that, I 255 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 2: don't know if you can get a whole lot for 256 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,679 Speaker 2: Caleb Durban, sure I would probably sell that. I think 257 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,079 Speaker 2: they're gonna probably move on and he becomes more of 258 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 2: a super util guy that I don't want to like, 259 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 2: you know, rely on. 260 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think super util is probably very useful for 261 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: the Milwaukee Brewers as they make their playoff stretch. Run. Here, 262 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: who's got the best era in baseball over the last 263 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 1: thirty days. I bet you didn't know. It was Lucas Giolito. 264 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,319 Speaker 1: Point eight three. That's how good he has been over 265 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: his last five starts. Thirty two winnings, twenty one hits, 266 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: thirty three strikeouts, seven walks. Now, look, this has been great. 267 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: If you pick him up off the waiver wire, you 268 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: can't possibly be happier than what Lucas Giolito has given you. 269 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: But this is unsustainable. It can't possibly be this good 270 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: for much longer. So I'm not trying to just completely 271 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: run a muck here and get rid of him. But 272 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 1: when you're talking about selling players at their peak, this 273 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 1: is it. This is the peak of Lucas Giolito. And 274 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: if you think you know what you saw in the 275 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 1: beginning of the year was scary and you're probably right, 276 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: this is the time where you can flip an asset 277 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 1: and get out from under Lucas Giolito. So I'm not 278 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: saying you have detroy him. I'm saying this is the 279 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: peak value. So Welsh, I know you've had a tough 280 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: relationship with Lucas Giolino this season, but he has been 281 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: absolutely brilliant over the last month or so. If you 282 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: want to hold on to him, cool, But if you 283 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 1: want to kick the tires on a trade where you 284 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 1: can bring back something bigger in a package deal, this 285 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 1: is your moment. 286 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm willing to kick the tires. I would say, 287 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 2: like him being a three and a half year aa 288 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 2: is is not unheard of. He was that for years 289 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 2: and years back in twenty twenty one, but it's been 290 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 2: a long time. You know, he's becoming a completely different player. 291 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 2: I do think he you know, he found a fix 292 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 2: in his foreseen fastball. He's an important cog to the 293 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,079 Speaker 2: Red Sox right now, but as you said, there's an 294 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 2: overrun higher exp than his current which would make him 295 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 2: close to Dylan Ces's current era at four to seven 296 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 2: to three. His expected batting averages against are pretty much 297 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 2: all higher. He's already giving up a two to ninety 298 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 2: batting average with his four seen fastball, but all the 299 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 2: other secondary stuff it's quite a bit higher. So I 300 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 2: have a little bit of worry that he's going to 301 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 2: come back down to earth. I actually think he could 302 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 2: still be relatively valuable. But if somebody is looking at 303 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 2: that three three era and the Red Sox winning and 304 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,199 Speaker 2: willing to overpay, I am going to listen because some 305 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 2: regression does seem likely for Giolito. 306 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: All Right, the last guy we're gonna talk about here, 307 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: and then we're gonna give you some keeper love as well, 308 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: Jose Barrios. I want to talk about him because I 309 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: know he's just kind of like your league average pitcher. 310 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: Some days are good, some days are less good. But 311 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 1: looking ahead here, you know, the last couple starts for 312 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 1: him have been a little checkered. For me, hasn't been great. 313 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 1: The last start against the Athletics on the road not 314 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 1: good either. So for his last seven games is era 315 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: is approaching four. Again, the expected ERA is higher than 316 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: the actual ERA. On the season as well, he's also been, 317 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: you know, worse on the road. He's got an ERA 318 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 1: over four on the road this year. So to me, 319 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: this is another one of these players where if I 320 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:10,480 Speaker 1: can flip Burrios for somebody who is more exciting or 321 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: dare I say, more reliable on a consistent start to 322 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,439 Speaker 1: start basis, I'd like to do it because I think 323 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: the overall picture is, hey, this is a solid picture 324 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: on a contending team. But from a fantasy perspective, I 325 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: think there might be other ways to go. What do 326 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: you think about Barrios and what his value might be 327 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: on the market? 328 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 2: One hundred percent. This has been on the trade articles 329 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 2: we do on Fantasy pros. I've had him recently a 330 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago that I completely agree. He kind 331 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 2: of screams out to me, mediocre is definitely the word 332 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 2: I would use. We talked about some high barrel rates 333 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 2: on pictures. He's giving up eleven percent bail rate. That's astronomical, 334 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 2: that's ridiculous. Really a big, hard hit stuff he's given up. 335 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 2: His MaxV against has been one eighteen. It's over ninety average. 336 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 2: His expected ERA is a full run higher, strikeouts are low. 337 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 2: He has about a twelve K minus walk percentage, so 338 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 2: he has a higher walk great that he's had in 339 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 2: five years, and his strikeout rate is only twenty percent. So, 340 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 2: like all that stuff just doesn't match up. I think 341 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 2: he's gonna get blown up a little bit. I don't 342 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 2: like him in the second half. Maybe I'll be proven wrong. 343 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 2: Blue Jays are trying to win games, but this would 344 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 2: be a guy that I'm definitely trying to move off of, 345 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 2: hopefully in one for one value. But I think regression 346 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 2: is coming for Brios. 347 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, I do too, And I have my concerns about 348 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: if the don't tell Joel Rico, if the Toronto Blue 349 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: Jays can sustain what they've done here so far. It's 350 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: been a fun story. It's been really good. But you know, 351 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 1: guys like Max Schuers are in that rotation. I just 352 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: don't know if we can get there. And look, the 353 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: strikeout rate for Brios a seven point five to seven 354 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: K per nine, it's not great. The walk rate compared 355 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: to that three point two walk per nine not great, 356 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: and his expected the ra is four to six seven 357 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 1: on that three seven five era. So just to throw 358 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 1: that out there again, it's not quite as pretty as 359 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: some of the flat stats make it look. When you 360 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 1: start peeling back the layers of the onion, it starts 361 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 1: to stink a little bit. So Welsh for those people 362 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: who are playing in leagues with keeper dynasty situation here 363 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: where you're looking forward to next year. Maybe the twenty 364 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: twenty five season did not work out for you, but 365 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six we're on and we're thinking about the future. 366 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: Who are some of the prospects or young guys that 367 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: you'd like to acquire in those situations. I know, I 368 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: kept talking about Uri Perez last couple of weeks. You know, 369 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: it's like, I think next year this time, we're gonna 370 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: talk about him in that same conversation, like the Skeens 371 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: type of guy. So that's mine. But is there somebody 372 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: else for you or maybe a player or two that 373 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: you think is like, all right, you're looking forward to 374 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 1: the future right now, these are some of the guys 375 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: that I want to try to get my hands on. 376 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, you've got You've got great assets that help someone 377 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 2: win now, and you've got a top team who's trying 378 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 2: to buy those and you're trying to, you know, compete 379 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 2: maybe for next season of the year after. Number one 380 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 2: player i'm going after is Connor Griffin. Connor Griffin is 381 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 2: going to be my number one overall prospect once Roman, 382 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 2: Anthony and Kags have full graduation. He was in the 383 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 2: futures game. He's moving through the system like crazy. I 384 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 2: don't know if he'll be viable next season because the 385 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 2: Pirates aren't competing, but he is going to be at 386 00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 2: the top of the list. I'm also going to throw 387 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 2: out to Kevin McGough. He might be number one or 388 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 2: number two on a lot of lists. He had an 389 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 2: injury early on in the season with the Tigers. He's 390 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: flying through their system. He's a madman with the bat. 391 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 2: I really like him. And then give me one other 392 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 2: that I think is cooled for a lot of people, 393 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 2: Travis Bozana. You have CAGs and you've got Kurts, you 394 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 2: got Cam Smith, You've got all these guys that were 395 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 2: just drafted that came up. Charlie Condon struggled all of 396 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,880 Speaker 2: a sudden, He's in the futures game, where's Travis Bizana. 397 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 2: Travis Bizon's been out here hanging with me. He's been rehabbing. 398 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 2: He's been hurt for a couple months, out of sight, 399 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 2: out of mind. He struggled a little bit in his 400 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 2: double A. He got hurt, and all these guys have 401 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 2: passed him. So I think he is in the back 402 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 2: of people's minds. But I think he's going to get 403 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 2: back running here and his rehabs. He was hitting off 404 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:47,479 Speaker 2: of Noah Cindergard, showing those leadership skills, taking walks, running, 405 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 2: playing the field, trying to pull the ball. He's a 406 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 2: heavy poll hitter. I think he's going to get back 407 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 2: to it. Really really smart kid. And I think it's 408 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 2: a fantastic time to buy low on Travis Bizana when 409 00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 2: people are kind of down because he's not doing anything 410 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:00,959 Speaker 2: and he got. 411 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go, last year's number one overall. Pick 412 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,640 Speaker 1: goodbye low on him. That sounds like a good deal. 413 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: All right, that'll do it for us. Hoppy trading. Everybody, 414 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: make sure you make the moves you need to and 415 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: of course don't forget to drop your comments below. Subscribe 416 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: to the channel. You might win yourself A Wan Gonzalez 417 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 1: autograph jersey from Pristine Auction dot com. That'll do it 418 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: for us, but the story of the game goes on 419 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids, 420 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: go win that championship. 421 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. 422 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 3: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 423 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts 424 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 3: or Spotify, Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at 425 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 3: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube 426 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 3: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB