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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 1: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 1: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent

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Speaker 1: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

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Speaker 1: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 1: But enough with that, Let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal. Indeed, we do lots of

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Speaker 1: big things that are breaking this morning and this week.

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Speaker 1: Trump claiming he will be indicted on Tuesday. We don't

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Speaker 1: actually know if that's going to happen. Both we will

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Speaker 1: see and we will talk all about that and the

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Speaker 1: particular case that may in charges that may be brought here.

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Speaker 1: We also have a lawyer on to help us understand

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Speaker 1: the legal intricacies of this one, because there's actually a

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Speaker 1: lot of moving parts. We also have some political fallout already.

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Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis put in a tough bind on this one,

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Speaker 1: in particular because as Florida governor, he would have to

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Speaker 1: be involved in extracising Trump, so awkward for him, and

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Speaker 1: he hasn't said anything about it yet. We also have

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Speaker 1: some updates in terms of the market credit Suite being

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Speaker 1: acquired by UBS over the weekend. Will that calm fears.

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Speaker 1: And also some really outrageous things that were said by

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Speaker 1: Janet Yellen about exactly who is being backstopped here in

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Speaker 1: terms of the banking sector. Also huge news internationally this

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Speaker 1: morning as Putin and She are set to meet. This

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Speaker 1: comes amid a report that the US is opposed to

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Speaker 1: any potential Chinese brokered cease fire in this conflict. Kind

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Speaker 1: of an outrageous dance there. And we're also looking back

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Speaker 1: at twenty years later after the launch of the Iraq War,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to look at you know, we looked

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Speaker 1: at we look at a lot of villains from the

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Speaker 1: Iraq War, Tobaca. We're actually going to look at some

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Speaker 1: of the courageous heroes. Do a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: different take on that. But before we get to any

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Speaker 1: of that, thank you, guys to all of you for

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Speaker 1: the huge response to now having Spotify Video. It is

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Speaker 1: really exciting and as a reminder, it's available for premium subscribers.

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Speaker 1: Sacer how do the people take advantage of that, right,

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Speaker 1: we are sending our existing premium subscribers. We have handy

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Speaker 1: dandy little graphic that has been made from one of

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Speaker 1: our users, so thank you very much that we will

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Speaker 1: send again to all of you, just to make the

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Speaker 1: people are really enjoying having Spotify video there within the app,

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Speaker 1: so it does take a little bit longer to update

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Speaker 1: than the eleven am email that we do send out

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Speaker 1: to everybody, but for those who are worth it, particularly

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Speaker 1: from what I'm hearing from people who live on the

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Speaker 1: West Coast, they're really enjoying it. So anyway you could

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Speaker 1: take advantage of that full video on Spotify that is

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Speaker 1: right there inside of your app. Don't even have to

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Speaker 1: check your email anymore, just auto updates on the Breaking

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Speaker 1: Points premium feed. Again, we will send everybody a handy

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Speaker 1: dandy little email again to people for both how to

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Speaker 1: the existing premiums can do it and for the new

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Speaker 1: ones who want to take advantage. Yeah, it's a lot

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Speaker 1: of fun and I know that people are really enjoying

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Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot Com to become a premium subscriber so that

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Speaker 1: you can take advantage of all of these things. There

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Speaker 1: you go, all right, So Donald Trump, is he going

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Speaker 1: to get arrested or not? Kind of dropped a bomb

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Speaker 1: on the people over the weekend, but it does. Really

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Speaker 1: what we need to do is take a step back.

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Speaker 1: We need to look at the initial claim that Trump

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Speaker 1: has made, and then let's also look at what are

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Speaker 1: these charges, because it has been now so long, I

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Speaker 1: unfortunately and intimately familiar with this case, from the time

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Speaker 1: that I covered the White House, the inns and the

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Speaker 1: outs of the details of Stormy Daniels, of the payment

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Speaker 1: that was made to silence her, and then the potential

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Speaker 1: crime of the original investigations, and now the new one

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Speaker 1: which appears to be facing some legal jeopardy for the

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Speaker 1: former president. But first and foremost, let's put this up

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Speaker 1: there on the screen. So Trump sent out an all

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Speaker 1: caps statement quote, our nation is now third world and dying.

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Speaker 1: The American dream is dead. The radical left anarchists have

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Speaker 1: stolen our presidential camp election and with it, the heart

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Speaker 1: of our country. American patriots are being arrested and held

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Speaker 1: in captivity like animals, while criminals and leftist thugs are

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Speaker 1: allowed to row in the streets. Okay, so that's the intro.

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Speaker 1: Then page two. Now, illegal leaks from a corrupt and

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Speaker 1: highly political Manhattan District Attorney's office, which has allowed new

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Speaker 1: records to be set in violent crime and whose letter

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Speaker 1: a leader is funded by George Soros, indicate with no

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Speaker 1: crime being able to be proven, and based on an

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Speaker 1: old and fully debunked by numerous other prosecutor's fairy tale,

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Speaker 1: the far and away leading Republican candidate and former president

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Speaker 1: of the United States of America will be arrested on

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Speaker 1: Tuesday of next week protests take our nation back. So

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Speaker 1: obviously the major headline is what he expects to be

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Speaker 1: arrested on Tuesday in connection to this case by Alvin

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Speaker 1: Bragg from the District Attorney's Office in the state of

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Speaker 1: New York, considering the payment to Stormy Daniels, of which

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Speaker 1: we have known that this investigation has been taking place

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Speaker 1: for a while. So let's all travel back in time

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Speaker 1: and let's try and forget that Michael Avenatti ever existed.

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Speaker 1: Say who is Stormy Daniels. Stormy Daniels was a porn

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Speaker 1: star throughout the nineteen nineties. She had a dalliance with Trump,

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Speaker 1: of which both have effectively admitted to in Lake Tahoe.

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Speaker 1: You can go and read some of the details for

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Speaker 1: that if you would like elsewhere. I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: get into what actually happened that day anyway, suffice to

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Speaker 1: say that they were likely or allegedly intimate on this day.

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Speaker 1: I believe it was in two thousand between the two

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Speaker 1: and since then, Stormy Daniels, especially after President Trump announced

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Speaker 1: his candidacy, wanted to come forward along with Karen McDougall

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Speaker 1: and others who had had brief affairs with him, in

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Speaker 1: order to basically embarrass him during the campaign. And he's

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Speaker 1: trying to either get money for it from from tabloids

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Speaker 1: like National Geographic or from Trump shellfire. Sorry, yeah, can

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Speaker 1: you imagine? Can you imagine? Other there's certainly some nature

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Speaker 1: going on it, all right, step back, now you can

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Speaker 1: tell which one of those I actually read. So National Inquirer.

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Speaker 1: There was an entire case around the way that that

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Speaker 1: case was handled, about the payment, about the intimate relations

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Speaker 1: between the National Inquirer and the safe of all their

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Speaker 1: secret stories that they had, and the payoffs that they

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Speaker 1: would kill. Yes, it was anyway interesting in its own

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Speaker 1: right that we all learned aroun a lot about in

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. The crux of it comes down to this,

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Speaker 1: Stormy Daniels was paid one hundred and thirty thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: This money was paid by President Trump's personal attorney, Michael Cohen,

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Speaker 1: who has since served some time in jail and turned

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Speaker 1: against the foreign president and actually turned witness against him

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Speaker 1: in this case. In it he admitted to paying her

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty thousand dollars. Now, where is the

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Speaker 1: violation here, Well, there were multiple avenues of inquiry on this.

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Speaker 1: Number one, was this a campaign finance violation because it

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Speaker 1: was done in connection with the twenty sixteen campaign. This

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Speaker 1: was alleged at the time the FFEC actually looked into it.

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Speaker 1: This was the initial thought about the way that federal

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Speaker 1: prosecutors would go after Trump while he was president. Ultimately,

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Speaker 1: the federal investigation, the FFC investigation went nowhere. Now the

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Speaker 1: New York authorities are looking at this payment in which

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Speaker 1: Michael Cohen was reimbursed this one hundred and thirty thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars by the Trump organization itself, that reimbursement and then

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Speaker 1: the subsequent cover up or possible misrecording or possible recording.

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Speaker 1: It not in the way legally that they should have

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Speaker 1: is at the crux of what we are looking at here,

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Speaker 1: the one hundred and thirty thousand dollars hush money payment

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Speaker 1: from twenty and sixteen. Let's goad and put this up

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Speaker 1: there on the screen for the New York Times. Actually

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Speaker 1: a decent explainer inside the payoff to the porn star

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Speaker 1: that could lead to Trump's indictment. The crux of the

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Speaker 1: case is going to focus on article one seventy five

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Speaker 1: of the New York Penal law of falsifying business records.

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Speaker 1: A conviction of a felony version of bookkeeping fraud carries

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Speaker 1: the sentence of up to four years. To prove that

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Speaker 1: mister Trump committed that offense, prosecutors would seemingly need evidence

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Speaker 1: showing he knowingly caused subordinates to make a false entry

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Speaker 1: into his company's records quote with the will intent to defraud.

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Speaker 1: For the action to be a felony rather than a misdemeanor,

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Speaker 1: Prosecutors need to show that mister Trump falsified the business

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Speaker 1: records with the intention of committing, aiding, or concealing a

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Speaker 1: second crime, as in that they would have to prove it.

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Speaker 1: The first first payment, the initial cover up was a crime,

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Speaker 1: and that the knowledge of what they were doing was

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Speaker 1: intentionally trying to cover up a crime to meet the

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Speaker 1: felony statute. That is basically where we are at with

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Speaker 1: the theory of the case. However, the prosecutor faces a

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Speaker 1: wide array of challenges in this number one. It requires

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Speaker 1: a very unique interpretation of this Article one seventy five law,

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Speaker 1: which is not yet brought before New York State law.

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Speaker 1: A judge could toss it out on that regard. Second

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Speaker 1: of all, the intentionality in being able to prove We've

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Speaker 1: talked a lot here in the past about defamation cases, Crystal.

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Speaker 1: Part of the reason why they're so hard to prove

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Speaker 1: is because you need to prove not only was somebody

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Speaker 1: defaming someone, but that they were knowingly doing so at

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Speaker 1: the time, that they knew what they were saying was

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Speaker 1: not true, and that you have to have evidence to

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Speaker 1: show that they knew exactly what they were saying, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was not true. So everything that I've read about

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Speaker 1: this that we're going to have a lawyer in to

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Speaker 1: break down. You know exactly what the charges are and

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Speaker 1: what the president is and all of those things. But

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Speaker 1: this is a novel application of the law. You have

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Speaker 1: two pieces here. Number one basically business fraud because this

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Speaker 1: payment was recorded as a quote unquote legal expense to

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Speaker 1: Michael Cohen, when of course that wasn't really what it was.

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Speaker 1: And then to make it a felony, it was in

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Speaker 1: service of covering up a campaign finance violation. This is

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Speaker 1: the idea, the theory, the legal theory here and obviously

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Speaker 1: a campaign finance law there. First of all, you have

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Speaker 1: to disclose what money, what benefit you're getting to your campaign.

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Speaker 1: And second of all, there are limits on you know,

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Speaker 1: how much you can receive and who you can receive

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Speaker 1: it from. You can't get it directly from a business

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Speaker 1: as one example. So the idea here is that the

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty thousand dollars hush money payment was

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Speaker 1: really to benefit his campaign. Now, one thing that I

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Speaker 1: will say, there's a lot of people who are saying

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Speaker 1: and this is kind of legally shaky ground and a

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Speaker 1: weaker case that some of the other things that are

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Speaker 1: out there, for example, the Georgia Grand Jury, for example,

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Speaker 1: the you know, the Merritt Garland Special prosecutor led investigation

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Speaker 1: by Jack Smith looking at incitement and more specifically on

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Speaker 1: you know, fake elector schemes, et cetera with regard to

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Speaker 1: January sixth, And I think, frankly, also from a political perspective,

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Speaker 1: like those are the things that people are more focused

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Speaker 1: on at this point in time versus this old hush

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Speaker 1: money allegation from years ago that we all had to

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Speaker 1: like dig deep into the trenches of our memory to

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Speaker 1: recall all the details of. However, I do think it's

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Speaker 1: worth pointing out Michael Cohen did spend time in prison

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Speaker 1: for this exact payment, and under now he ended up

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Speaker 1: pleading guilty, and it was to charges of lying to

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Speaker 1: Congress and to campaign finance violations with regard to this

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Speaker 1: hush money payment to Stormy Daniels. So it's not like

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Speaker 1: it's crazy to imagine that, you know, this payment was

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Speaker 1: of course in service of his campaign, and he did

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Speaker 1: plead guilty through those charges and spend time in prison.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I'm not one to give Michael Cohen

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Speaker 1: like a ton of credit, but he did make a

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Speaker 1: reasonable point, which is all the people are freaking out

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Speaker 1: or ah, this is political etcetera, etcetera. He's like, where

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Speaker 1: were you all when I was being prosecuted for the

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Speaker 1: same shit nobody raised a single voice of protests from

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Speaker 1: the right about him being found guilty of the same thing. Right.

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Speaker 1: Part of the problem though, is that one of the

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Speaker 1: charges that brought Michael Cohen down was actually perjury, so

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Speaker 1: he actually relied on her. Oh so that was part

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Speaker 1: of their issue, right, is that that actually was about

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Speaker 1: the subsequent cover of the crime and not the initial

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Speaker 1: payment itself. This is going to be it was both.

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Speaker 1: It was line to Congress and it was the campaign finance, right. So,

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Speaker 1: and that's actually part of the problem though, is that

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Speaker 1: that was a federal charge, the campaign finance RD. That

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Speaker 1: is not the charge actually being brought here or what

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Speaker 1: would be brought here if an indictment ward would come.

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Speaker 1: It would be a book caping keeping case. And actually

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Speaker 1: there is some discussion about which supersedes which, and the

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Speaker 1: fact that the FEDS decided not specifically to prosecute Trump

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Speaker 1: for this payment on a campaign finance violation in conjunction

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Speaker 1: with the FEC, that this is in a different almost

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Speaker 1: legal entity entirely politically. I don't disagree. Actually, yeah, that's

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Speaker 1: a very reasonable case. But that is actually why the

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Speaker 1: divergence of this and where the grounds on which he

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Speaker 1: actually might be prosecuted and indicted and then ultimately convicted.

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Speaker 1: If so, what that would come down to. Is it

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Speaker 1: going to come down to the actual facts of the

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Speaker 1: case itself or is this going to be political? And

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Speaker 1: the other thing I think that I should note also

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Speaker 1: is about the statue of limitations, because the statute of

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Speaker 1: limitations in this case may also end up becoming something

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Speaker 1: because book keeping fraud has a two year statue of

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Speaker 1: limitations in the state of New York and a five

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Speaker 1: year one as a felony, both of which normally would

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Speaker 1: have expired for payments made to mister Cohen in twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: but New York law extends the limits to cover periods

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Speaker 1: when a defendant was continuously out of state, as he

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Speaker 1: was while he was living in the White House or

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Speaker 1: while he was at his home in Florida. In addition,

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Speaker 1: during the pandemic, New York's statue of limitations was extended

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Speaker 1: by more than a year. So with those dual extensions,

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Speaker 1: we are at the expery limit, which is exactly why

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Speaker 1: they're making the determination specifically on this case at this time.

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Speaker 1: I mean, politically, let's zoom out to because let's also

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Speaker 1: be real like nothing ever is actually done in terms

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Speaker 1: of the law. Like, clearly there's political motivation on all this.

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Speaker 1: Many of these people actually ran on convicting Trump, both

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Speaker 1: from Letitia James to mister Bragg, Right, yeah, exactly, he

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Speaker 1: literally ran He's like, you know, New York state law

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Speaker 1: even was changed in order to help them. What was

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Speaker 1: it released to tax returns? I think that's one of

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Speaker 1: the only reasons we even have is tax returns. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: these are all ridiculous fights from twenty eighteen or so

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Speaker 1: that have since passed. But within the memory bank and

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Speaker 1: also within the current political calculus of which we will

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Speaker 1: talk quite a bit about in the fallout section. I

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Speaker 1: kind of agree with you, Chrystl, which is that at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, if this is the first

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Speaker 1: one that you're going to bring, it really does seem

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Speaker 1: to me one of those where on the merits, this

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Speaker 1: does not seem like a very difficult case for Trump

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Speaker 1: actually to beat on the merits in court, especially on bookkeeping.

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Speaker 1: Also with the novel interpretation of the law, the fact

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Speaker 1: that nobody's ever been prosecuted like this, you can make

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Speaker 1: a pretty clear case also in the media around you know,

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Speaker 1: of course, diehard Democrats are going to be behind it,

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Speaker 1: but diehard Republicans too. You know, this isn't like a

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Speaker 1: smoking gun, dead to rights case in any interpretation I

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Speaker 1: think of which we will also get into with Bradley Moss. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean the politics of it. The legal piece is

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Speaker 1: less clear to me just because of my not lawyers.

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Speaker 1: The politics part is clear to me, which is I

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Speaker 1: think it's a tremendous gift to Trump that this is

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Speaker 1: the first prosecution because I think it is the weakest

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Speaker 1: of the cases. I think it's the case that people

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Speaker 1: care the least about or the least and so I mean, listen,

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Speaker 1: when I look at it, I'm sort of two minds.

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Speaker 1: On the one hand, novel application of law, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, like if you or I did

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Speaker 1: some like rigged hush money payment in service of a campaign,

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Speaker 1: we would get popped for it. So you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: sort of two mindst. But in terms of the politics

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Speaker 1: of it is I think pretty clear. And we'll get

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Speaker 1: into this more. But you already see Republicans swarming to

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Speaker 1: his defense. I think it also will take if there

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Speaker 1: are indictments in some of the other cases, which seems

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Speaker 1: fairly likely. You know, there's no time like the first time. Ye,

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Speaker 1: the first time packs the greatest punch, And this happens

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Speaker 1: to be the case that he has the most to

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Speaker 1: work with in terms of spinning a public narrative, which

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Speaker 1: you always already see him aggressively doing, and so I

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Speaker 1: think it can also take some of the sting out

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Speaker 1: of later charges that might be filed in some of

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Speaker 1: the war clear cut and frankly more serious cases that

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Speaker 1: he may be implicated in. So you know, that's kind

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Speaker 1: of how I see this. I think it's very fortunate

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Speaker 1: for him. I don't think it will certainly hurt him

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Speaker 1: at all in the Republican primary. I think it may

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Speaker 1: well help him in the Republican primary, and I don't

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Speaker 1: know that it has an impact really on him even

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Speaker 1: for a general election. The other piece here is, you know,

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Speaker 1: he says, because of Leeks, we know I'm going to

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Speaker 1: be indicted on Tuesday. Obviously I'm paraphrasing what he said

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Speaker 1: in his own very trump like way, with a lot

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Speaker 1: of misspellings, etc. We don't actually know that he is

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Speaker 1: going to be indicted on Tuesday. In fact, it doesn't

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Speaker 1: really look like he is going to be indicted on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: There's new reporting that there's some other witness they want

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Speaker 1: to testify in from the grand jury, which may push

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Speaker 1: the timeline out a bit. I think he's referring to

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Speaker 1: there was a report, I believe with NBC News saying

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Speaker 1: he could be indicted as soon as as early as

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Speaker 1: this week. That doesn't mean a guarantee that it's going

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Speaker 1: to be this week. It just means this is kind

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Speaker 1: of coming to a close and it's going to happen soon.

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Speaker 1: His own aid said that it's not like he had

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Speaker 1: been given a heads up, Hey, this is coming Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: So it's not at all clear that this is happening Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: And if anything I would say is probably not happening tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: it's probably, you know, maybe a week away, maybe a

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Speaker 1: little more than that. Who knows. In old Trump in parlance,

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Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. Yeah, we've got a great guest

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Speaker 1: standing by Bradley Moss. Let's get to it. Joining us

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Speaker 1: now is national security lawyer Brad Moss. Welcome back to

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Speaker 1: the show. Brad, appreciate it absolutely. How you guys doing.

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Speaker 1: We're great. So Brad, give us your breakdown of You've

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Speaker 1: been following these cases in and out for a number

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Speaker 1: of years. That's how we got to know each other.

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Speaker 1: Your initial read of the potential Alvin Bragg indictment of

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Speaker 1: former President Trump. Sure, so, I'm a little surprised this

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Speaker 1: one's coming first. I was almost convinced the Fulton County

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Speaker 1: one was going to be happening weeks ago. Fannie Wilson

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Speaker 1: has clearly got some stuff that she's working through, and

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Speaker 1: that's fine. But for the New York case, you know, look,

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Speaker 1: we all remember this story. It came out a bunch

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Speaker 1: of years ago. It was this whole thing about how

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Speaker 1: he paid off Stormy Daniels in the final days in

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Speaker 1: the twenty sixteen campaign, covered it up through payments do

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Speaker 1: with a lawyer, and then later on his lawyer went

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Speaker 1: to jail over it. It's a very interesting case because

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Speaker 1: there's going to be some untested elements to it. There's

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Speaker 1: going to be the issue of statue limitations. Normally we'd

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Speaker 1: be long past that, but New York has a particular

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Speaker 1: provision that allows the government to toll or extend the

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Speaker 1: statue when someone has relocated continuously outside the state. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump did that. He lived in DC, and then he

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Speaker 1: moved to Florida. There's going to be issues of venue.

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Speaker 1: He's going to say, everybody in Manhattan hates me. You know.

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Speaker 1: He's going to say, I can't get a fair trial here. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that'll be a nice argument. But if it didn't work

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Speaker 1: with the January six ers on, you know, in DC,

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Speaker 1: I don't really think it's going to work for a

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Speaker 1: lifelong New Yorker getting tried in Manhattan, you know. And

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Speaker 1: then the last part is he's going to claim that

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Speaker 1: this is being overcharged. It should just be a misdemeanor

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Speaker 1: of anything on falsecation of business records that the state.

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Speaker 1: You know, campaign finance issue has never been tested. That's true,

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Speaker 1: it's never been tested. But every crime that's been prosecuted

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Speaker 1: under a particular statute at one time or another had

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Speaker 1: never been tested. This will be the first. If this

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Speaker 1: is in fact what happens, let me push you on

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Speaker 1: that part a little bit. David French, certainly, who's now

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Speaker 1: a New York Times columnist, certainly no fan of the

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Speaker 1: former president. He's not with a piece that questions exactly

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Speaker 1: that aspect. Here in his tweet about his new ed,

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Speaker 1: he writes, untested legal theories should not be used to

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Speaker 1: prosecute anyone, including and perhaps especially former presidents. I added that,

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Speaker 1: perhaps especially for those who are just listening. What do

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Speaker 1: you think of that particular argument, Brad All, Like I said, one,

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Speaker 1: there's always going to be a first for every case,

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Speaker 1: first for every type of criminal prosecution that's happened. Originally,

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Speaker 1: there was always the first time for all of them.

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Speaker 1: But here's the part that I really dislike about some

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Speaker 1: of those comments, and I've seen the ones from David

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Speaker 1: French and others. They keep referring to Donald Trump like

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Speaker 1: he's special because he's a former president. He's not a

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Speaker 1: president anymore, simple private citizen. He is not special. He's

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Speaker 1: no different than you or me or anyone else who's

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Speaker 1: an ordinary private citizen. At the moment. If he becomes president,

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Speaker 1: he has all kinds of protections then, but until that time,

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Speaker 1: he's just now ordinary average American citizen subject to criminal

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Speaker 1: laws like everybody else. So, Brad, one discussion here is

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Speaker 1: about that you alluded to, is that when you're a

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Speaker 1: private citizen versus president, some of the treatment does actually change.

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Speaker 1: So some reporting is indicated. One of the reasons that

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Speaker 1: Trump does want to be president again for a variety

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Speaker 1: of reasons, is actually it would receive legal protection. Can

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Speaker 1: you go into some of the analysis on that. I

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Speaker 1: know that you covered it quite a bit at the time.

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Speaker 1: What legal protection does a form or does a current

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Speaker 1: president actually have while he is in office, especially as

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Speaker 1: it would relate to such crimes like this and perhaps

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Speaker 1: even the Fulton County one. Sure. So it's nothing written

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Speaker 1: in law, it's nothing written in regulation. It's a Department

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Speaker 1: of Justice policy that the Justice Department at least would

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Speaker 1: not indict a city president, not because they couldn't, but

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Speaker 1: because of the constitutional ramifications, the disruption it would have

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Speaker 1: to the chief of Executive's abilities to perform his duties.

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Speaker 1: They said, we won't do it. That dates back to Nixon.

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Speaker 1: That guidance was updated during Clinton's time and it's never

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Speaker 1: been changed. That's one of the reasons Muller didn't do

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Speaker 1: anything with respect to the obstruction angles that he thought

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Speaker 1: he could have pursued, because he felt he did not

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Speaker 1: have the authority to bring an indictment of a sitting president.

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Speaker 1: It was up to anybody who was potentially up to

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Speaker 1: the Attorney General or Congress Tom Peach. So if Trump

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Speaker 1: gets re elected, he'll have protection from whatever is going

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Speaker 1: on with the Special Council Probe any other federal investigations.

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Speaker 1: But it's completely unclear what that would mean for Fulton

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Speaker 1: County and what that would mean for Manhattan because either

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Speaker 1: obviously neither of them report to the Justice Department. Those

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Speaker 1: are local state entities, and there's no theory, is no president,

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Speaker 1: there's no case law to look back at to say

431
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: here's how it would work. We don't know because former

432
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 1: presidents generally don't get prosecuted because they don't do this. Yeah,

433
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: got it. Let me ask you about another piece that

434
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,919
Speaker 1: people have been questioning. Some analogies have been made to

435
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: the John Edwards prosecution. There was kind of a similar dynamic.

436
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 1: He had a mistress. I believe it was campaign funds

437
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 1: that were used in a sort of similar cover up

438
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 1: type of a fashion. Let's put this up on the screen.

439
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: This was an analysis from Jonathan Turlie that was written

440
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 1: in The Hill. He says it is extremely difficult to

441
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 1: show that paying money to cover up an embarrassing affair

442
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 1: was done for election purposes, as opposed to an array

443
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 1: of obvious other reasons from protecting a celebrity's reputation to

444
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 1: preserving a marriage that was demonstrated by the failed federal

445
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,719
Speaker 1: prosecution of former presidential candidate John Edwards on a much

446
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 1: stronger charge of using campaign funds to cover up an affair.

447
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 1: So basically what he's saying here is, you know, they

448
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 1: would have to show in order for this to be

449
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:52,919
Speaker 1: a felony. As my understanding, you can correct me if

450
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 1: I'm wrong. I'm not a lawyer, far from it. But

451
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 1: for this to be felony charged, they have to basically

452
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: show that the business fraud was in service of covering

453
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 1: up this campaign finance violation. And to show that, you

454
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: have to prove that this one hundred and thirty thousand

455
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 1: dollars was really about the campaign and not about you know,

456
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 1: protecting his reputation or preserving his marriage or whatever else

457
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 1: they're going to argue in court. Sure, and that's a

458
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 1: fair comparison for Turlion others to make. And I'm sure

459
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 1: that something's going to be brought up in pre trial

460
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: motions by the Trump legal team, you know, saying that

461
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 1: this is you know, there's no basis for this, it's

462
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 1: not you know, relevant as a matter of law. But

463
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,640
Speaker 1: here's things to remember One that was a federal case

464
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: dealing with federal campaign finance. This is gonna be a

465
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: state case based off New York state law, so they're

466
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 1: not directly comparable. Two with Edwards, it was a mistrial.

467
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 1: They could have retried it. They had reasons not to

468
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 1: do so. Un understandably they did not, but they could

469
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 1: have retried that case. Three, that was use of campaign

470
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 1: funds in the Edwards case. This is use of private

471
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 1: funds in the days before the election through a third party.

472
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 1: It's unclear, and I'll give Alvin Bragg's got has work

473
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 1: cut out for him if he brings this indictment. But

474
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: it's unclear if the Edwards case would really have played

475
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 1: out differently if it is based on New York state law.

476
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,360
Speaker 1: We just know, right, That's a great point. And then finally,

477
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: really about in the talk of state versus federal. Initially

478
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: federal prosecutors while Trump was president, from the FEC and

479
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: others decided to go after Michael Cohen on this, but

480
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: decided ultimately not to go after Trump. Will that factor

481
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: in any way into the state case And is that

482
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: an argument that the Trump lawyers can make. It's certainly

483
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: something they can raise in the context of selective prosecution

484
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 1: and things along those lines for a pre trial motion.

485
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 1: But here's also to remember when the case against Michael

486
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: Cohene was originally brought, Donald Trump was president. The Southern

487
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 1: District of New York could not bring a case against

488
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. They had no authority to do so under

489
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 1: that existing DJ guidance. The only thing that could have

490
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 1: happened is they could have theoretically brought a case once

491
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 1: Trump left office in twenty twenty one. We don't know

492
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: for certain why didn't do it. Maybe they thought the

493
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 1: case was weak, maybe they were worried about and in

494
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: a number of fact it's been the thought January sixth

495
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: was just going to take him down. Who knows, that's

496
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: not despositive. One more last question for you, Brady, Sorry,

497
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 1: what do you make of I mean, it's no surprise

498
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 1: that Trump would argue this is politically motivated, But you know,

499
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: what is your read of his claim that Bragg basically

500
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: ran in order to try to bring these indictments and

501
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 1: that you know, this prosecution wouldn't happen if it was

502
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 1: a Democrat who was facing similar charges. Yeah, this is

503
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,479
Speaker 1: a tried and true method for him. He tried this

504
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: in the Letitia James case is still ongoing against his corporation.

505
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 1: He tried that and that simple litigation, saying she ran

506
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 1: for the purpose of taking down Trump. The judge rejected

507
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: the argument. And here's the best part for people like

508
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: Alvin Bragg. They have a Supreme Court precedent they can

509
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 1: point to in the context of no matter what I

510
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: said on the campaign trail, it doesn't matter if I

511
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: can point once I'm in office to a legitimate, independent

512
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 1: reason for having pursued. It's a case involving Donald Trump

513
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 1: and the original Muslim travel ban. That was how the

514
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: government managed to get the third version that travel ban

515
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 1: through the Supreme Court was by saying, we don't care

516
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: what Trump said on the trail. All that mattered to

517
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 1: us was what we did once he was in office

518
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 1: and how we based it in facts once he was

519
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: in office, and the Supreme Court went along with that. Gotcha.

520
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 1: So from a political talking point, it may have some legs,

521
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 1: but from a legal standpoint, perhaps not. Yeah, I don't

522
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 1: think so. No, got it? Well, Brad, That's why we appreciate.

523
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 1: I know you've got your view, but you are fair

524
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: in your judgment. You always have been and we'll continue

525
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: to have you back on the show. Yeah, we appreciate it,

526
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 1: man anytime. Okay, now that we've gone into the details

527
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 1: of said case, we've talked with Brad a little bit

528
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 1: about the actual legal mechanisms, both federal and state, the

529
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 1: way that this could all go down. Let's get to

530
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 1: the politics of which we alluded to a little bit

531
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: in our previous eight block. Let's go ahead and put

532
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. A major fight is

533
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,919
Speaker 1: now currently brewing on if New York State prosecutors do

534
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: issue an indictment towards Trump is what will Ron DeSantis do?

535
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: Will honor the extradition requests of the State of New York,

536
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: Will Trump willingly turn himself over in New York City?

537
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: And will DeSantis come forward and denounce the political prosecution

538
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump. So here's what we have here. Send

539
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: the National the Florida National Guard to mar A Lago.

540
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: MAGA is demanding that DeSantis defy any Trump arrest by force.

541
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: You have Jason Miller asking why potential presidential candidate Ron

542
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: DeSantis has yet to weigh in on the claim on

543
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: True Social that he's being arrested, but many more are

544
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 1: saying what exactly is he going to do? He says,

545
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 1: here MAGA figure Mike Cernovich, who has really come out

546
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: and he's actually been more of a pro Desantist type person,

547
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 1: but says, quote, I will that DeSantis needs to come

548
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: out and say I will not extradite a presidential candidate

549
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 1: to a Soros DA who allows violent criminals to run

550
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: free until there has been a proper legal review conducted

551
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: under Florida law. If lawful, then extradition may occur, but

552
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 1: not one day sooner. And yet he really hasn't come

553
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 1: out and said anything. It spawned a trummendous push crystal

554
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: by MAGA forces, both online and probably privately as well.

555
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 1: This is confirming some reporting from inside the Trump apparatus

556
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 1: that politically they see this as a massive gift to them.

557
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 1: And what of you? And I said from day one,

558
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: you're like an indictment only helps him in any primary.

559
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 1: I'm not talking about the general at this point. I

560
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 1: will not even try to speculate unwhere exactly that will

561
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 1: get to. Purely within the Republican base. The persecution, however

562
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 1: you may think is justified or not. The prosecution of

563
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: former president is going to lead to a rallying of

564
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: exactly what we saw after the mar A Lago raid.

565
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 1: And the fact that Dessante has already waited so long

566
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 1: to say anything, I actually think makes him look weak.

567
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 1: So at this point he needs to keep his mouth

568
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 1: shut forever, because if he comes out now and does

569
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: try and condemn it in some mealy mouthed way the

570
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: way he has previously in the past, I think you

571
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 1: will look even weaker. He's made his choice. You made

572
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: your choice. Now, Ron, meet Paul. Now you got to

573
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 1: stick to it, putting Ron as a new moniker, the

574
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: report that he needs putting with this viewers, this is

575
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,479
Speaker 1: quite a big cole that he's in because not only

576
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 1: I mean, even if he wasn't the governor of the

577
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: state that technically has to extradite Trump for this indictment,

578
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 1: just being a presidential contender, Like, they're all under a

579
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 1: lot of pressure to say something or not say something

580
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 1: or whatever. A couple of them have come out really forcefully.

581
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 1: Others of them are just keeping quiet, Nikki Haley among them.

582
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 1: So even if it was just that landscape, it would

583
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: be difficult, but it is. I mean, I can't help

584
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: but laugh at what a bind he's in because he

585
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: actually has to be involved in the mechanics of extra

586
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,719
Speaker 1: Trump from his date. So even if he says nothing like,

587
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: they're not going to forgive him for being involved in

588
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 1: this and in their words, you know, collaborating with this

589
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: radical leftist George Soros funded whatever, whatever, whatever. So, yeah,

590
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 1: this is a tough one for him. This is a

591
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: real pickle for him in terms of how he handles it.

592
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean, I look politically, I think it's

593
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: a nightmare for Ron DeSantis. But you know, as you said,

594
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 1: even if he was the governor who had to decide

595
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 1: on whether to honor the extradition request or not, he

596
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: still is in the same political bind of do I

597
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 1: condemn or do I not condemn? And when you don't,

598
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 1: of course you are going to follow yourself in the crosshairs. Already,

599
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: one of the candidates, viviak Ramaswami, is calling out Ron

600
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 1: DeSantis for not saying anything. In addition to Nikki Haley,

601
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: he made a video that he put out on Twitter,

602
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 1: which is now being praised by the Trump campaign. To

603
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: be clear, let's take a listen to some of what

604
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 1: he said today's announcement. I worry about for the same

605
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: reason that I differentiate myself from Trump is that I

606
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 1: think this takes us a step closer to a national divorce.

607
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 1: I think that when you politicize the justice system itself

608
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 1: to prosecute a political opponent of the party in power,

609
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: the lead political opponent of the party in power, that

610
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 1: is not one small step, but a giant leap towards

611
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 1: a national divorce if they follow through it too. And

612
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: so it's in some ways the same reason that I'm

613
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: drawn into this race as a candidate running against Trump,

614
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: that also draws me to be a hardliner against the

615
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: possibility that Trump be indicted on mean, serial and politicized grounds.

616
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: There you go. I don't really know why I speaking

617
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 1: into his phone. I'm presuming a microphone. It's a little odd,

618
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: but on the substence itself, calling out DeSantis on this

619
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 1: is very smart politically. B you know, let's presume at

620
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: the fact that you know, yes, technically Ramaswami is running

621
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: against Trump, but you know, I think he's currently one

622
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: percent of the polls. If you're angling for some sort

623
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 1: of cabinet position or for some sort of inroads, you

624
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 1: could guarantee you that Donald Trump has seen that video.

625
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: And has been showing it to all his friends. Look,

626
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 1: this guy's running against me, and even he's defending me. Yeah,

627
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: you know. It's one of those where currying favor with

628
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: the former president the current candidate, bringing praise from the

629
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,959
Speaker 1: Trump campaign, drawing a contrast with Nikki Haley and with DeSantis.

630
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: DeSantis himself, I mean the fact that he has stayed silent.

631
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: Now he came out immediately after the mar A Lago

632
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: raid and said something. So did Glenn Youngkin, so many

633
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: so did so many of these others that Haley and

634
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 1: that DeSantis here are not weighing in it or not

635
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 1: condemning it just shows you too, how out of Because look,

636
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 1: with the Republican base itself, even the ones who want

637
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: to move on from Trump, they still think about him fondly.

638
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 1: They still like Trump. They're just like, Okay, I like

639
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: the guy, but maybe not you know that we need

640
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 1: some new blood. The fact is is, like you have

641
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: got to be on the side. And this is a

642
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: tricky part. We can't really run against that person. You

643
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: kind of have to run beyond that person. But in

644
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 1: the zero sum situation like this, what do you do.

645
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 1: He's made his choice now at this point. I really

646
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: do believe that it's been two days since it's come out,

647
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: hasn't said anything. I'm sorry, like at this point, if

648
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: you do come out and try and condemn it, I

649
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 1: just think he's gonna look weaker. I mean, for Vivic,

650
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: this makes all the sense in the world because it's

651
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 1: unlikely that he'll be the Republican nominee, but this, you know,

652
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: it's good brand building for him potentially angling for a

653
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 1: cabinet position, et cetera. But his video also shows how

654
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: there are no good answers for Republican contenders against Trump

655
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 1: in terms of this indictment or any of the other ones,

656
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 1: because if you say nothing, you're going to get hit,

657
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 1: and certainly if you're the governor who's charged with extraditing him,

658
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: that's a very difficult position to be in. So you know,

659
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 1: not defending him, you're going to take a hit. But

660
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: if you come out and you you defend him and

661
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 1: you basically bend the knee, you're also giving him power.

662
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 1: So it's like either way, you lose and he's strengthened.

663
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: So it's not like there are any good choices on

664
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: the board game for any of these candidates to make

665
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: you know, I think Ramaswami there makes the best one

666
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: in terms of how he is situated. Is that going

667
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 1: to help him win a Republican primary? No, I mean,

668
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 1: none of this is helpful for the other candidates in

669
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: the field in terms of winning a Republican primary, which

670
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 1: is something that we've been saying all along because we

671
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 1: saw it all play out with the mar A Lago

672
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: raid where they are effectively forced to bend the knee

673
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 1: defer to him, adopt his narrative, and then the whole

674
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: political scene, in the whole Republican primary scene once again

675
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: is about Donald Trump versus anything else that they may

676
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 1: want to be talking about. You know, I think Nicky

677
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 1: Haley is making a poor decision here too by staying quiet.

678
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: I don't really understand that calculation, because probably even though

679
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 1: neither move is a good move, the best thing you

680
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: can do is at least say something tepidly like critical

681
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: of it and try to move forward with your CAID paign.

682
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's it only helps Trump this whole, especially

683
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 1: this particular procest like the January sixth stuff, would be

684
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 1: harder for Mike Pence to navigate, much harder. I agree,

685
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: and I think some of the other candidates too, would

686
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 1: have a harder time navigating that one, this one from

687
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 1: their perspective, when you have even voices like David French saying,

688
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 1: you know, there's some problems with this prosecution. This one

689
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 1: is kind of a slam duck in terms of how

690
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: the base is going to perceive it. That's really well said,

691
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 1: and already that's how beginning to happen. Let's go ahead

692
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen. So there

693
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: have been multitude signs of which we have already showed

694
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: you where Dysantis is showing signs of slipping in the polls.

695
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 1: So you can see here in a graphic compiled by

696
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: Nate Cohene, there is a big widening gap between Ron

697
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: DeSantis and between Trump. Before January fifteenth, they were roughly

698
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: head to head in an average of the polling averages,

699
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: Trump is not pulled ahead by more than ten points.

700
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: At the same time, if you look at the multi

701
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: candidate polling averages where you include others, Dysantis was roughly

702
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 1: ten points behind Trump. But now the gap between them

703
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: has widened significantly. And again this is why, and we

704
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: can accept that polling is off that in many cases,

705
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 1: but the tracking in the average within them is still

706
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: useful to look at. So if it is wrong at

707
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 1: the very least that it's wrong consistently, and in that

708
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 1: consistent wrongness, Destantus is dropping, So you can presume that

709
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: that is going to have some effect that we can

710
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: see in some of these polls. And then buy and

711
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 1: large two with Republican primary polls. They weren't perfect throughout

712
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, but they weren't even close to as long

713
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 1: as wrong as a general election. The Polsters actually seem

714
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: to be better off than normal, and they never underestimated

715
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: any of Trump's strength in any of those primaries. If

716
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: we'll remember, they had him way ahead in New Hampshire

717
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: one New Hampshire, had him way ahead in Nevada, and

718
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,479
Speaker 1: South Carolina ended up winning both of those races Super

719
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: Tuesday as well. They always did have John Kasik in

720
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 1: very much striking distance of Trump in Ohio, same thing

721
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 1: for Ted Cruz in Texas. So they were pretty much

722
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: correct throughout twenty sixteen the last time we had a

723
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: multi candidate field. Generally, presume that if you were right

724
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 1: last time, that you could use it relatively the same

725
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 1: methodology around I mean, the thing with these poles is

726
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 1: in the Republican primary, they have been wildly divergent. Some

727
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 1: of them have showed DeSantis a little up or it closed,

728
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 1: some of them have shown like a total Trump blowout.

729
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: The state poles have looked different than the national polls,

730
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 1: so there has been a lot of variability between them.

731
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: What Nate looks at here is he said, Okay, of

732
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: all the polsters who would previously pulled in this race,

733
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 1: how have their numbers shifted? And there were about twelve

734
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 1: poles that had been done previously where they were doing

735
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: a new round, a new updated version of them, and

736
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: in every single one of those twelve poles, Trump was

737
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 1: taking a larger lead. So rather than looking at the

738
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: absolute number, okay, is the yup by five, is the

739
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 1: yup by ten? Is the up by fifteen? What he

740
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: looked at is, Okay, if you polled previously, we're assuming

741
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 1: you're using basically the same methodology, what are you finding

742
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 1: in the field. And every single one of them found

743
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 1: that Trump was taking a larger lead and that DeSantis

744
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: had kind of fallen off. And so I think it

745
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 1: really demonstrates the perils of the strategy that he's engaged in.

746
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 1: You know, for a while, I think it made sense

747
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 1: for him to do his thing in Florida and be

748
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 1: above the fray and not get into it. But now

749
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: that Trump has fully joined the fight, and this shows

750
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: with the indictment situation as well. The more that you're

751
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: staying quiet reads as weakness, and the more that Trump

752
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 1: is able to completely define you, define what you're about,

753
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 1: define the narrative of this primary, define the issues that

754
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 1: he wants people to focus on and things that he

755
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 1: wants people to care about. And so you know, it's still,

756
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: I guess, sort of early in the game, but at

757
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 1: some point DeSantis is going to have to truly join

758
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 1: this fight, and that is perilous as well. That's a

759
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 1: perilous situation as well. Absolutely, all right, let's go to

760
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 1: Mike Penspin continuing himself out in the sphere. So this

761
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: is the perfect also illustration of the where you're really

762
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 1: stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the

763
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 1: one hand, you don't necessarily want to support Trump. You

764
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 1: clearly are willing to rhetorically hit him a little bit,

765
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 1: But on the other you still are mealy mouthed in

766
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 1: attacking him. You appear weak and there's two clips here

767
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,240
Speaker 1: that we're going to show you kind of put together

768
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: which kind of encapsulate all his problems. Let's get to it.

769
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 1: I mean, he's effectively justifying or excusing the actions of

770
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: people who were were calling for you to behaved. There

771
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 1: was no excuse for the violence that took place at

772
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 1: the Capitol on January sixth, And I'll never diminish it

773
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: as long as I live. But I president's wrong. He's

774
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,800
Speaker 1: wrong that day, and I had actually hope that he

775
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: would come around in time John, that he would see

776
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 1: that the cadre of legal advisers that he surrounded himself

777
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 1: with led him astray, But he hasn't done so, and

778
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 1: it's a I think it's one of the reasons why

779
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 1: the country just wants a fresh start if that standard

780
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: bear is the former president. If he is, then would

781
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 1: you support him? Well, I think we'll have better choices,

782
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: and I really trust Republican voters to sort it out.

783
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 1: We still won't say it. It's like, well, I think

784
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 1: we'll have better choices, but I trust Repolis voters to

785
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 1: sew it out, and basically give himself an in of yeah, well, okay,

786
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 1: I might still support him. These people, they don't have

787
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 1: a real critique, and to the extent that they do,

788
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 1: as we've always tried to point out, their critique is

789
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: not politically popular. Their critique of Trump outside of January

790
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 1: sixth is well, he doesn't want to fully privatize Social

791
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: Security and he doesn't want to institute a national abortion ban.

792
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 1: It's like okay, And then, you know, increasingly what we

793
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: have seen with them is that they both have to

794
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 1: walk the line of that the base and most Republicans

795
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,399
Speaker 1: feel that Trump is being politically persecuted, but then also

796
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: trying to make the case against him while going after

797
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,439
Speaker 1: the liberal establishment. The whole point of being a Republican today, really,

798
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: I really think is just whoever can piss off the

799
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: liberal establishment more. Trump is the king of that. To

800
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 1: the extent that DeSantis is number two, it's because he

801
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 1: is not the second in the country. He's also good

802
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 1: at that. He's the prince of it, if you will,

803
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 1: But being prince doesn't make it, doesn't make the gang. Yeah. Yeah.

804
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 1: And in terms of this potential indictment coming from the

805
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: Manhattan DA, Pence has already come out and said it

806
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: is politically charged and quote not what the American people

807
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,919
Speaker 1: want to see. So he is backing Trump on those

808
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: particular charges. As I said before, I think if it

809
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 1: was some of the January sixth charges, this would be

810
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 1: more challenging for him to navigate. And I don't know

811
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 1: exactly what he would say there, but you know, he's

812
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: trying to add it both ways. He's trying to go

813
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 1: to the Gridiron dinner and like signal to them like, yeah,

814
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: this was bad. January six was bad. But he's trying

815
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 1: not to piss off the Republican base. And I think

816
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: ultimately that gets you, like the eight percent of the

817
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: polls that Mike Pence is out right now, yeah, well

818
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 1: this is this is everything. And at the same time,

819
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 1: you know, Speaker McCarthy, let's go and put this up

820
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,839
Speaker 1: there on the screen. You can see here he's coming

821
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: out and fully condemning the prosecution on Trump. And same thing.

822
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 1: Here we go again, an outrageous abuse of power by

823
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 1: a radical DA Let's file in criminals walkuse he pursues

824
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 1: political vengeance against Trump. I am directing relevant committees to

825
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 1: immediately investigate a federal funds are being used to subvert

826
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 1: our democracy by interfering in elections with politically motivated prosecutions.

827
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 1: And so what can we take away from this, which

828
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 1: is that the people who have real ties into the

829
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 1: electoral system, the path to political victory is clear. That's

830
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:18,360
Speaker 1: what McCarthy has always basically made that basic political calculus.

831
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 1: As humiliating as it has been to him personally and

832
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: for everybody else who wants to walk some sort of

833
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: different line, I just don't believe that a different line exists, Crystal.

834
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 1: If you are an aspiring Republican politician today, you have

835
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 1: to be full throated against this. There is simply no

836
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 1: other way to have any political opportunity. Yeah, and it's

837
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 1: just so clear how Trump still dominates Republican politics, how

838
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 1: he's still the leader of the party, how there is

839
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 1: still such a compelling bond between him and a large

840
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 1: portion of the Republican base. I mean, if you think

841
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 1: you're going to be able to grab the narrative for

842
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 1: your benefit in this Republican primary, well, this is the

843
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 1: first of first of many legal dramas that are about

844
00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: to play out. We're going to see this cycle continue

845
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 1: and continue and continue. So I just think it's a

846
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 1: you know, really emblematic of some of the dynamics that

847
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 1: we've been talking about, where yeah, they may be happy

848
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: to run against him, even offer some sort of like

849
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 1: passive aggressive, tepid, like mild critique of Trump. But when

850
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: it actually comes to taking this guy head on, when

851
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: it actually comes to making a case that's going to

852
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 1: be compelling to a Republican base about why they should

853
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: why they should drop the Donald and go with you,

854
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 1: I just don't see it yet. I just don't see it. Yeah,

855
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 1: it's been a present reality now for basically some time. Okay,

856
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:42,479
Speaker 1: let's go on to the banks, all right, so let's

857
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,240
Speaker 1: get to what is happening in the markets this morning.

858
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: As we reported last week, there was a lot of

859
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: turmoil because there were signs that Credit Suisse, which is

860
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 1: a gigantic bank, was on the edge. They had put

861
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: on a statement saying they were having some issues. They

862
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 1: went to their biggest funder, which was like the Bank

863
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 1: of Saudi Arabia or something like that, and they were like,

864
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 1: now we're good, We're not giving you any money. The

865
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 1: market freaked out. Their stock was plummeting. It was causing

866
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 1: all sorts of turmoil in terms of other banks around

867
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 1: the world, including some of the ones based here. So

868
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 1: the Swiss government, in this we reported last week, came

869
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 1: in and said, all right, we're going to provide liquidity.

870
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: We're basically you know here to backstop you. And over

871
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 1: the weekend they were able to force through a deal

872
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 1: for another gigantic bank, UBS, to buy Credit Suite. Let's

873
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 1: go ahead and put this up on the screen from Bloomberg.

874
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 1: The headline is they're going to buy Credit Suite in

875
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 1: a three point three billion dollar deal to try to

876
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,919
Speaker 1: end this crisis. The government is going to backstop some

877
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 1: of the losses, so the Swiss taxpayer will be on

878
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: the hook for some of this. UBS was not willing

879
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 1: to do the deal without some provisions of that sort,

880
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 1: and they say authorities pushed for deal amid worsening confidence crisis.

881
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 1: So you know, right now, while we're recording this, it's

882
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: eight forty am, so it's still very early to see

883
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 1: whether this is sort of like demmed some of the

884
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 1: chaos in the markets. There are some indications that ultimately

885
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 1: it has, but you know, there's also a question saga

886
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 1: of whether this banking issue was like totally separate from

887
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 1: what happened here, or if they were somewhat related. I'm

888
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 1: not sure if we have the answer to that. Really,

889
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: But in one way they might be linked, which is

890
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 1: the type of depositors that credit sue relies on are

891
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 1: similarly you know, really large and you know, very large deposits,

892
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 1: potentially more flighty, just like Silicon Valley banks. So in

893
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 1: that way they might be sort of related and potentially

894
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 1: they had some of the similar interest rate risk that

895
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 1: stressed their balance sheet in the same way as Silicon

896
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 1: Valley Bank. Yeah, it's very odd because the purchase price,

897
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 1: you know, seems low for the amount of assets that

898
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 1: are under management, but that may give us an a

899
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 1: insight into actually how badly run credit squeeze clearly was

900
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 1: this was one, you know, this is a it's difficult

901
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 1: also to describe it because we've had such a crazy

902
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 1: couple of weeks now with the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Yeah,

903
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 1: but this is one of the biggest reorganizations of the

904
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 1: global financial system since two thousand and eight, from the

905
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: FDIC insurance basically being moved to unlimited to the Silicon

906
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,439
Speaker 1: Valley Bank savior than the signature bank you know, shut down,

907
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 1: and same with the subsequent guarantee and now possible contagion

908
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 1: that we are seeing in the Credit Suite situation. So

909
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: the fact too that you had the Swiss government that

910
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 1: stepped in and basically ordered UBS the UBS to come

911
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 1: in and to buy it, and also to give them

912
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 1: a credit line that other banks that were organized to

913
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,319
Speaker 1: make sure and keep it afloat shows you that too

914
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 1: Big to Fail still not only rains but is now

915
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 1: basically law of the global financial system, which is nuts.

916
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:41,879
Speaker 1: That's what we're supposed to prevent. And UBS with this acquisition,

917
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 1: is going to be an absolute be human, I mean

918
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 1: an absolute giant now with this acquisition. After the deal,

919
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 1: Credit Suisse stock cratered sixty percent, So that's kind of

920
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 1: where we are. You can see the different approach that

921
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: regulators took, I mean in terms of Credit Suite. They

922
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 1: tried to do a bailout just for this one bank,

923
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 1: with the idea being Okay, this isn't about anybody else.

924
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 1: This is just like sort of unique to Credit Suite,

925
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 1: which we talked about last week. They've had all sorts

926
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:12,959
Speaker 1: of scandals and issues anyway, So I think that makes

927
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 1: sense in this context. You know, our regulators and I'll

928
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:18,399
Speaker 1: get to this in a minute, they really bought into

929
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,439
Speaker 1: this idea that this could be this widespread crisis, and

930
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: so they needed to provide liquidity across the entire sector

931
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,280
Speaker 1: and give you know, what amounts to a public bailout

932
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:32,399
Speaker 1: of all, especially mid size banks across the country, banks

933
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 1: of a similar size to Silicon Valley Bank. So very

934
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 1: different regulatory approaches here, but ultimately, you know, in both cases,

935
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 1: taxpayers on the hook for some portion of it. Let's

936
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 1: go and put this next piece up on the screen,

937
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 1: because this was really interesting. Okay, So part of the

938
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 1: FED response, as we covered last week, one part was

939
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 1: backstopping the depositors, and we'll get to more on that

940
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 1: in a moment. The other part was opening up some

941
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 1: new lending facility and a lie allowing banks to use

942
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 1: collateral that has seen its value collapse to use it

943
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 1: at the original value, so to just pretend that those

944
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 1: losses didn't actually happen. And you had a huge number

945
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 1: of banks that took advantage of some of these crisis programs.

946
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 1: So when I first read that, the headline here from

947
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 1: CNBC is banks take advantage of FED crisis lending programs.

948
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 1: When I first read this, I thought, oh, I guess

949
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: there really was a huge problem and these banks were,

950
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 1: you know, flocking to discount window into this new lending

951
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 1: facility to make sure they have sufficient liquidity. The numbers

952
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 1: here are quite astonishing. Borrowing total nearly one hundred and

953
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 1: fifty three billion dollars at the FED discount window. I

954
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,399
Speaker 1: believe that was a record over that period of time

955
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: and a huge spike in terms of you know, what

956
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 1: had been going on there previously. But when you dig

957
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 1: into the numbers, it tells a little bit of a

958
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,800
Speaker 1: different story. Let's put this tweet thread up on the screen.

959
00:46:55,920 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 1: So the TLDR here is that almost all of the

960
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 1: money that was borrowed from the FED here went to

961
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 1: just three banks, so most of it was out west.

962
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 1: You can see in the first chart the overwhelming preponderance

963
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 1: of the borrowing from the FED came from the San

964
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 1: Francisco region and then a smaller portion from New York.

965
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,720
Speaker 1: And basically that's it. None of the other regions saw

966
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:24,879
Speaker 1: any borrowing really whatsoever. And this is from a guy.

967
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 1: His name is Nick Timmyrrows. Maybe let's go with that Timmeyorrows.

968
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 1: We'll just go with that Street Journal. I want to

969
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: give him credit. He's with the Wall Street Journal. And

970
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 1: this was really helpful. So if you look into this,

971
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 1: he says, assuming most of the fifty five billion in

972
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:40,919
Speaker 1: New York, which was the totality of the New York

973
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 1: lending is for Signature Bank, which we know just failed,

974
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 1: that would mean the balance of funds for FDIC Bridge

975
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,919
Speaker 1: Banks accounts for eighty eight billion for Silicon Valley Bank

976
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: in San Francisco, for their First Republic, which continues to

977
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 1: be under pressure, said they borrowed up to one hundred

978
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:58,359
Speaker 1: and nine billion from the discout window. That suggests as

979
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 1: much as one hundred and ninety sive of a billion

980
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 1: of the two hundred and thirty three billion in San

981
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 1: Francisco went to two institutions. It also suggests there may

982
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 1: not have been large demands from many banks across the

983
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 1: other ten fed districts in the Midwest and Eastern US,

984
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 1: So again the overwhelming preponderance of this money, the bulk

985
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 1: of this money went to just three banks, which in

986
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 1: my opinion, kind of undermines the view that this was

987
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 1: like a widespread immediate crisis where there were a whole

988
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 1: bunch of banks, hundreds of banks some people had posited

989
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 1: across the country that really needed to shore up their

990
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 1: balance That's what Nick's point was. He said, if you

991
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 1: look at this, it's very clear who needed money and

992
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,839
Speaker 1: who didn't. The contagion piece. I mean, look, we will

993
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 1: never know at the end of the day. Right, maybe

994
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 1: it would look crazier today than it would have at

995
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 1: that time, but clearly after and the pretext through which

996
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 1: it was done and then the extraordinary action was the

997
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: idea that this was going to bass up the entire

998
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: banking system. And in reality this is simply not the

999
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 1: case here in the US. That's just not what the

1000
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 1: FED discount window borrowing shows us. It looks like you

1001
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 1: have troubled financial institutions, both of which who idiotically managed

1002
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 1: their bank balance sheets, on top of flighty customers in

1003
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 1: the tech industry, which specifically the most hard hit by

1004
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 1: increasing rates, and those two have basically coupled with, let's

1005
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: be honest, outrageous calls online for immediate bailouts unless you're

1006
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: gonna have total collapse, is what pressured Washington into doing

1007
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,839
Speaker 1: this when you know it's not look and I think

1008
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:19,400
Speaker 1: people may are misunderstanding. Nobody here ever said I don't Chris,

1009
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 1: I'm sure you didn't as well. I was like, I

1010
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,319
Speaker 1: have never said that I don't sympathize with people who

1011
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 1: had deposits in the bank, like I very much am

1012
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 1: looking at small businesses and others saying, yeah, that sounds

1013
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 1: like an outrageous situation, terrible, the fact they wouldn't be

1014
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: able to make payroll. I'm not saying even necessarily a

1015
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 1: normal FDIC process would have been enough, because in many

1016
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 1: of these places would have been gone under. All we

1017
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 1: are saying is an extraordinary precedent has now been set,

1018
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 1: one which strikes at the bedrock of the way that

1019
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 1: we think about private banks. So if we are going

1020
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,240
Speaker 1: to strike at that bedrock, then we should also strike

1021
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: at the extraordinary bonuses profits and MILTI millions of dollars

1022
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 1: in bonuses, tax benefits and others that these people get.

1023
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 1: That's it. That really has been the position from day one.

1024
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 1: Everybody likes the bedrock. Nobody likes whenever you want to

1025
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 1: reform how these people actually make a ton of money

1026
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 1: based on all of our assets together. I mean, it's

1027
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:09,719
Speaker 1: just reasonable. It's just become incredibly clear that all the

1028
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 1: profits when times are good, the bank, managers, shareholders, they

1029
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 1: are all raking in the cash, and when times are bad,

1030
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: guess who's on the hook, especially when you're talking about

1031
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 1: I mean Silicon Valley Bank. We put some of the

1032
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: charts up on the screen last week. This was a

1033
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:34,360
Speaker 1: weird bank, very unique, very unusual in the percent of

1034
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 1: deposits that it had that were uninsures, like ninety eight percent.

1035
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 1: That is not normal, Okay, that is really really strange

1036
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 1: and unusual that they were all concentrated in this one

1037
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:49,319
Speaker 1: little clickish club group, you know, predominantly in the tech

1038
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 1: sector in Silicon Valley, hence the name. There were a

1039
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 1: lot of things and then of course their decision too.

1040
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:59,439
Speaker 1: They were warned by regulators, they're warned by also their

1041
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,399
Speaker 1: own implay that were like this risk management looks really bad.

1042
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 1: We have tons of interest rate risk here because of

1043
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:08,200
Speaker 1: how our ballad sheet is overwhelming and held in these

1044
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 1: you know, long term treasuries that are losing value by

1045
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:14,800
Speaker 1: the day. They were warned about that, and they thought

1046
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:18,279
Speaker 1: that they could basically write it out. So this was

1047
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 1: a whole strange confluence of unusual circumstances that would not

1048
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 1: be reflected in many, if any other banks nationwide. You

1049
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 1: have signature which they were taken huge hit because they

1050
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 1: were you know, had really courted a lot of people

1051
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 1: who were involved in crypto, and when crypto lost its

1052
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:39,919
Speaker 1: ass then guess what signature was in a really bad

1053
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:43,800
Speaker 1: place too. And this other bank, First Republic, that still

1054
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 1: continues to struggle and is losing value stock market is

1055
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 1: you know, stock values falling and still struggling, et cetera.

1056
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 1: And they're the ones who are like barring like crazy

1057
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 1: at the FED discount window. They also had a similar

1058
00:51:55,920 --> 00:52:00,400
Speaker 1: tech heavy, wealthy, tech heavy clientele and a vast of

1059
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 1: uninsured deposits. So these are really unique, unusual circumstances. So

1060
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 1: it does not surprise me at all to look at

1061
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 1: the FED lending and find out that, oh, it's basically

1062
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 1: these three banks and that's it. Now, there are also

1063
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 1: questions because it's very clear that there was a lot

1064
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: of market like investor freak out last week in terms

1065
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,439
Speaker 1: of stock market, which may continue into today. We'll find out.

1066
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 1: There's a real case to be made that because the

1067
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:33,799
Speaker 1: FED took such overwhelming industry wide action, I mean, these

1068
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 1: investors they are also heard creatures that they took that

1069
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 1: as a signal. It's like, oh my goodness, there must

1070
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 1: be this massive issue across the economy. And they freaked

1071
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 1: out in terms of the markets. But all of the

1072
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:47,839
Speaker 1: you know, capital flight and all of these other things

1073
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 1: that were posited, and that potentially there were hundreds of

1074
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:53,880
Speaker 1: other banks on the brink of failure. Listen, maybe, but

1075
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 1: we have not seen evidence that that is the case,

1076
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 1: and we have seen some evidence in the other direction

1077
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:03,400
Speaker 1: that this was a very speciific, unique set of circumstances

1078
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 1: that only really applied to a handful of banks in

1079
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:10,080
Speaker 1: the country. I think that's what said, Okay, so at

1080
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: the same time, let's talk a little bit about the depositors.

1081
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 1: The other part of the government response was to say, Hey,

1082
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:22,760
Speaker 1: if you're an uninsured depositor at Signature Bank, you're good.

1083
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 1: We're going to cover one hundred FDIC is going to

1084
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:26,759
Speaker 1: cover one hundred percent of it. Hey, if you're an

1085
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:30,400
Speaker 1: uninsured depositor at Silicon Valley Bank, your cash is also safe.

1086
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 1: The FDIC, backed by the US taxpayer, is going to

1087
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 1: cover one hundred percent of it. You're good. Now. This

1088
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 1: opened up a lot of questions about, Okay, so are

1089
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:44,280
Speaker 1: you de facto guaranteeing one hundred percent of uninsured depositors

1090
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:48,320
Speaker 1: across the industry, from small banks to medium sized banks

1091
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:51,320
Speaker 1: to the largest banks. Is that basically what you're saying?

1092
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 1: And they Jeff Stein asked them this question right away,

1093
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 1: they wouldn't really give an answer. So Senator James Langford

1094
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 1: asked Jenne Allen Charger Secretary Janet Yellen this exact same question,

1095
00:54:03,760 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 1: and the response is pretty stunning. Take a lesson. Will

1096
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 1: the deposits in every community bank in Oklahoma, regardless of

1097
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:15,719
Speaker 1: their size, be fully insured? Now? Are they fully recovered?

1098
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 1: Every bank, every community bank in Oklahoma, regardless of the

1099
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 1: size of the deposit, Will they get the same treatment

1100
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 1: that SVBP just got or Signature bank just got. A

1101
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:32,920
Speaker 1: bank only gets that treatment if a majority of the

1102
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 1: FDIC board, a super majority, a super majority of the

1103
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 1: FED Board, and I, in consultation with the President, determine

1104
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:51,919
Speaker 1: that the failure to protect uninsured depositors would create systemic risk.

1105
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,160
Speaker 1: All right, So let me interpret that for you. She says,

1106
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 1: banks only get that treatment if the FDIC Board and

1107
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:03,800
Speaker 1: myself determine that the failure to protect those depositors would

1108
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 1: create systemic risk. That means basically, screw you to small banks. Okay.

1109
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 1: One of the problems that was posited here in very

1110
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 1: aggressive terms of why you had to backstop all the

1111
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 1: depositors at SVB and everywhere else was basically and this

1112
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:21,960
Speaker 1: was a reasonable case to make. Okay, if you're a

1113
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:24,799
Speaker 1: depositor and you have all of this money uninsured in

1114
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:29,840
Speaker 1: SVB and you're looking around at a shaky banking financial system,

1115
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:31,279
Speaker 1: what are you going to do. You're going to pull

1116
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 1: your cash. You're going to put it in the largest

1117
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:35,880
Speaker 1: banks because you know they're too big to fail, and

1118
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 1: you know you'll be on more solid ground there. So

1119
00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 1: they're saying there's going to be this huge capital flight

1120
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 1: of depositors from the mid size banks into the large banks.

1121
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 1: Well why doesn't that same reasoning apply then to small banks,

1122
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 1: because now you have basically they've said, okay, well the

1123
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 1: mid range of banks, I guess they're too big to

1124
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 1: fail as well, so we're going to backstop all of

1125
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,920
Speaker 1: their depositors. So if you have a large deposit at

1126
00:55:58,920 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 1: a small bank, then why wouldn't you be thinking the

1127
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 1: exact same thing of I got to pull my cash

1128
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:06,080
Speaker 1: and I got to move it up the food chain

1129
00:56:06,120 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 1: to one of these institutions that is going to be

1130
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 1: backstopped by the FED. Now I don't know because I

1131
00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:14,520
Speaker 1: don't have you know, those numbers aren't publicly available, whether

1132
00:56:14,560 --> 00:56:16,879
Speaker 1: that is actually happening or not, and there's some reason

1133
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:20,240
Speaker 1: to believe that it may not be because bank deposits

1134
00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 1: are really sticky. It's a pain and ass to move

1135
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,400
Speaker 1: your money. You got all your auto pays set up,

1136
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 1: so people tend to just be like, yeah, we'll figure

1137
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:28,879
Speaker 1: it out, It'll probably be okay. And by the way,

1138
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: the overwhelming majority of people, the mean bank account is

1139
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:33,880
Speaker 1: only fifty three hundred dollars anyway, so they would be

1140
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:37,279
Speaker 1: covered by the FDIC insurance. But this is a real

1141
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 1: screw you to small banks. This is saying we are

1142
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 1: going to give you special treatment if you are a

1143
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 1: certain size. We're going to give your depositors special treatment

1144
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 1: if you are of a certain size. And the small

1145
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 1: banks are incredibly angry about all of this, well as

1146
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,160
Speaker 1: they should be, because really, as you interpreted it, what

1147
00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:57,839
Speaker 1: she is saying is that the Feds are now going

1148
00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 1: to pick winners and losers in the banking stem. Yeah,

1149
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 1: the two big to fail banks as they define it,

1150
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 1: not Congress, are the ones that now have unlimited deposit insurance.

1151
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 1: Credit Union, like he's saying of Tulsa. You're screwed. Sorry,

1152
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: you're not systemically risk. And that here's the other one.

1153
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:16,560
Speaker 1: Who are the people most likely to use those small

1154
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 1: credit unions? Those are locals, small business owners, like real

1155
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 1: small like I'm talking like yeah, like you said, like

1156
00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 1: a hardware store that's barely floating on a two percent thing.

1157
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:28,520
Speaker 1: It doesn't have like a wealthy PC that can float

1158
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 1: them a bridge loan if they get into a cash

1159
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 1: They have five guys who work there, you know, So

1160
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:34,840
Speaker 1: they have five guys who work there. They're trying to

1161
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 1: make ends meet. Every once in a while they have

1162
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:40,040
Speaker 1: to go through their banking system, and relationship is purely

1163
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 1: built on a guide that they know they're at the bank.

1164
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:44,520
Speaker 1: If that bank goes down, that actually is devastating for

1165
00:57:44,600 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 1: the community. But it's not quote systemically risk for the

1166
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 1: entire global financial system ergo, it doesn't now qualify. So

1167
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,360
Speaker 1: it's just simply not fair. This is giving the big

1168
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 1: guys the greatest gift they could ever have, which is

1169
00:57:57,280 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 1: the government saying our bank can literally never fail when

1170
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 1: all of the smaller banks, what's there incentive now sell

1171
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 1: you should just sell to you know, First Republic or

1172
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:09,439
Speaker 1: any of these people sell to PNC, sell to JP

1173
00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:11,800
Speaker 1: Morgan Chase and having even more of a roll up

1174
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 1: in the finance. So that's exactly what you want to avoid.

1175
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 1: Credit unions in this way, are you know they specifically

1176
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 1: avoid much of the risk. I mean, that's why they

1177
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:22,760
Speaker 1: don't fail as much, and now they're effectively being penalized

1178
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 1: for it by regulators. Yeah, right, yeah, I one hundred

1179
00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 1: percent agree with all of that. It really is not right.

1180
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:32,200
Speaker 1: There's another piece of this that has well before we

1181
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:34,160
Speaker 1: get to this. One thing that really grows me on

1182
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 1: soager is I saw Silicon Valley Bank. They were actually

1183
00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: like recruiting depositors based on the fact that the FDIC

1184
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 1: is backstopping all of their deposits. They were putting out

1185
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 1: you know missives that were saying, oh, you're there's no

1186
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:49,959
Speaker 1: bank in the country that's safer than us at this point,

1187
00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:53,120
Speaker 1: right because we got the federal government guarantee. Like you know,

1188
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 1: these other people yours of mid range you might be

1189
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 1: betting on, Okay, are they going to decide we're systemically

1190
00:58:57,480 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 1: important or not? But we know one hundred percent that

1191
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 1: Janet Yellen and co. Have said that we are, So

1192
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 1: your deposits are absolutely safe in this bank. There is

1193
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 1: no safer bank in the entire country, which again demonstrates

1194
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:15,680
Speaker 1: what incredible gift the public, driven by the government, has

1195
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 1: given those banks in particular, but any bank that is

1196
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 1: their size or larger in general. There's another piece here,

1197
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:24,920
Speaker 1: which you know last week we talked about how the

1198
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:28,600
Speaker 1: FED was just asleep at the switch, like these were

1199
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 1: obvious problems. There were tons of short sellers who saw

1200
00:59:32,720 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 1: that this was an issue for Silicon Valley Bank. It

1201
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 1: was not complex in order to understand, and yet they

1202
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 1: didn't intervene. They didn't do anything before the you know,

1203
00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:45,479
Speaker 1: the s hit the fan, so to speak. So let's

1204
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. New York Times is

1205
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:51,800
Speaker 1: reporting that actually, the FED did spot some problems at

1206
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley Bank ahead of time. Now I read this,

1207
00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 1: let me give you the details, then I'll tell you

1208
00:59:56,360 --> 00:59:59,200
Speaker 1: how I interpreted this. They say Silicon Valley banks risky

1209
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 1: practices were on the fed's radar for more than a year,

1210
01:00:02,040 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 1: an awareness that proved insufficient to stop the bank's demise.

1211
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 1: The FED repeatedly warned the bank that it had problems,

1212
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 1: according to a person familiar with the matter, in twenty

1213
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:12,600
Speaker 1: twenty one, a FEDER review of the growing bank found

1214
01:00:12,640 --> 01:00:16,160
Speaker 1: serious weaknesses in how it was handling key risks. Supervisors

1215
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:18,760
Speaker 1: at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which the

1216
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:21,760
Speaker 1: CEO of this bank, SAD on that board with that aside,

1217
01:00:22,240 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: issued six citations. Those warnings, known as Matters Requiring Attention

1218
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 1: and Matters Requiring Immediate Attention, flagged that the firm was

1219
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 1: doing a bad job of ensuring that it would have

1220
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:35,760
Speaker 1: enough easy to tap cash on hand in the event

1221
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: of troubles, but the bank did not fix its vulnerabilities,

1222
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. So I read this in two ways.

1223
01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:43,080
Speaker 1: First of all, I feel like it's an attempt at

1224
01:00:43,080 --> 01:00:45,840
Speaker 1: FED ass covering because they have come into a lot

1225
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 1: of scrutiny and a lot of criticism for their complete

1226
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:52,840
Speaker 1: failure to see this coming and be able to deal

1227
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 1: with it before it became a complete crisis. But it

1228
01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:59,320
Speaker 1: also in some ways is even more embarrassing because it's

1229
01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:02,080
Speaker 1: like you knew that were issues, you issued your little

1230
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 1: like how we're sending you a warning, but they didn't

1231
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:07,520
Speaker 1: actually do anything. And I think this speaks to a

1232
01:01:07,640 --> 01:01:14,160
Speaker 1: larger problem within FED and other banking supervision and regulation,

1233
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 1: which is effectively since the Greenspan era and in the

1234
01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:22,120
Speaker 1: era of market fundamentalism, neoliberalism, whatever you want to call it,

1235
01:01:22,200 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 1: there was really this shift in philosophy where regulators were

1236
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:28,880
Speaker 1: going to see their role as making sure the private

1237
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:34,160
Speaker 1: sector had sufficient transparency and information for them to hold

1238
01:01:34,200 --> 01:01:37,000
Speaker 1: the banks accountable and do the due diligence than in

1239
01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 1: previous eras in like the New Deal era, that the

1240
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:44,520
Speaker 1: regulatory bodies did themselves well. For one thing, shareholders have

1241
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:47,919
Speaker 1: a different set of incentives than the public does. That's

1242
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:52,280
Speaker 1: one thing. They're more risk tolerant than the public is ultimately,

1243
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 1: But number two, the market is also not perfect, it

1244
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 1: turns out, and they can miss a lot of things

1245
01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:01,520
Speaker 1: as well. So the FED taking that hands off, laid

1246
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 1: back approach, sent them their little notices, but didn't actually

1247
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 1: intervene or do anything to stem the crisis before I

1248
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 1: became one. Yeah, And the fascinating thing is, let's put

1249
01:02:08,440 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. I really enjoyed reading this,

1250
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:13,360
Speaker 1: is that the crisis sparks new battle between small and

1251
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:17,800
Speaker 1: large banks. The Independent Community Bankers Association of America, which

1252
01:02:17,880 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 1: represents the nation's smallest banks, is now coming to Congress

1253
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:24,520
Speaker 1: to make the case that they should not have to

1254
01:02:24,640 --> 01:02:27,760
Speaker 1: pay for the rescue of bank depositors, and that the

1255
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:32,320
Speaker 1: largest lenders instead deserve stricter oversight from regulators. The group

1256
01:02:32,480 --> 01:02:35,400
Speaker 1: entered in early Monday saying that Silicon Valley Bank and

1257
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:39,240
Speaker 1: the nation's largest banks are not community banks, specifically pushing

1258
01:02:39,280 --> 01:02:42,120
Speaker 1: back against the idea that they are the ones who

1259
01:02:42,120 --> 01:02:44,560
Speaker 1: will now have to pay. The way that they would pay.

1260
01:02:44,560 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 1: As I've laid out before, is that the FDIC almost certainly,

1261
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 1: with this new guarantee, is going to raise the amount

1262
01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:51,680
Speaker 1: that all banks are going to have to pay into

1263
01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:54,360
Speaker 1: the FDIC system, something I'm totally fine with if you're

1264
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:58,160
Speaker 1: JP Morgan Chase. But again, the likelihood is you almost certainly,

1265
01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:00,880
Speaker 1: and I the actual customers have said will be the

1266
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 1: ones who bear the brunt. But these independent community banks

1267
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:05,200
Speaker 1: are like, we don't want to pass these fees onto

1268
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 1: our customers because we're charging them on a fair system.

1269
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:09,760
Speaker 1: We're not doing anything risky. Why should we have to

1270
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:12,240
Speaker 1: pay for this pretty fair point? If you ask me,

1271
01:03:12,520 --> 01:03:15,520
Speaker 1: and instead as yelling laid out, I'm in the business

1272
01:03:15,560 --> 01:03:17,920
Speaker 1: of saving the big ones, the little guys and all

1273
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:20,440
Speaker 1: that you basically have no defense here. Yeah, you have

1274
01:03:20,480 --> 01:03:23,440
Speaker 1: no insurance, that's right. Yeah, So the little guys are

1275
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:27,640
Speaker 1: going to help subsidize fd I see insurance to cover

1276
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:31,720
Speaker 1: one hundred percent of the deposits at mid range and

1277
01:03:31,840 --> 01:03:35,280
Speaker 1: higher banks. They're like, how is this fair? This is insane,

1278
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:39,080
Speaker 1: especially after Yellen came out and said directly like no,

1279
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:42,560
Speaker 1: little guys, no, you're not part of this deal. Don't

1280
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:45,479
Speaker 1: even think that you are. So yeah, I can see why,

1281
01:03:45,640 --> 01:03:48,640
Speaker 1: and I think justifiably. So they are absolutely outraged by

1282
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:50,440
Speaker 1: the state of affairs, and they should be. And so

1283
01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:53,000
Speaker 1: it'll be a brewing fight. And look, if Congress really

1284
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:54,640
Speaker 1: did its job, we would have real hearings on this.

1285
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:56,760
Speaker 1: We have a real investigation. Yeah, we have a full

1286
01:03:56,800 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 1: report that was delivered to me. Your regulation. I just

1287
01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:01,000
Speaker 1: don't see any sand, any real path to that. So

1288
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:02,760
Speaker 1: I really do feel for the little guys because they

1289
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:05,680
Speaker 1: their prices or their customer fees and fdi C fees,

1290
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:07,800
Speaker 1: regulatory screwt Ney, all that is going to go up

1291
01:04:07,800 --> 01:04:09,560
Speaker 1: and they didn't do anything. Yeah, nothing to deserve it.

1292
01:04:09,640 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 1: Warren and Katie Porter are sort of leading the charge

1293
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 1: to try to pass, you know, to reregulate because part

1294
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 1: of this story is obviously some of the rollback and regulation,

1295
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:20,800
Speaker 1: and so that would be important. But I have to

1296
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 1: say there's a whole philosophical shift that has to happen

1297
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:28,480
Speaker 1: in terms of regulators who are not only way too

1298
01:04:28,520 --> 01:04:32,440
Speaker 1: cozy with industry, but have this you know, odious philosophy

1299
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 1: that says basically like we don't we're not really the regulators.

1300
01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:39,439
Speaker 1: It's actually the private you know, the shareholders who need

1301
01:04:39,440 --> 01:04:41,320
Speaker 1: to hold these banks to account. So there's a whole

1302
01:04:41,320 --> 01:04:44,600
Speaker 1: philosophical shift that needs to happen as well. Yeah, all right,

1303
01:04:44,640 --> 01:04:48,000
Speaker 1: there's a lot of news with regard to Ukraine. Let's

1304
01:04:48,000 --> 01:04:50,200
Speaker 1: start with this piece gun and put this up on

1305
01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:53,080
Speaker 1: the screen. So what you're looking at here is Vladimir

1306
01:04:53,120 --> 01:04:59,120
Speaker 1: Putin driving a car around the occupied city of Mario

1307
01:04:59,160 --> 01:05:03,720
Speaker 1: Pol that, of course Ukrainian city they you know, was

1308
01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:07,840
Speaker 1: really devastated by the Russian attack. My understanding here is

1309
01:05:07,880 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 1: there's some little banter between him and whoever his henchman

1310
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 1: is about like, you know, what's being reconstructed and how's

1311
01:05:13,280 --> 01:05:15,760
Speaker 1: the airport doing. Just like us, Crystal, you can drive

1312
01:05:15,800 --> 01:05:18,560
Speaker 1: a car, even drive it a Toyota. I mean, some

1313
01:05:18,640 --> 01:05:20,720
Speaker 1: of this is actually kind of hilarious to see because

1314
01:05:20,720 --> 01:05:24,120
Speaker 1: it's obviously very clearly staged. He like goes to somebody's

1315
01:05:24,120 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 1: apartment in the middle of the night. Yeah, it's like

1316
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 1: at three am, and it's like, oh, it's just a

1317
01:05:28,480 --> 01:05:31,640
Speaker 1: surprise visit. They have a whole buffet spread laid out

1318
01:05:31,680 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 1: for him, probably like caviar and champagne. Yeah, so I

1319
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 1: got our friend Yegor to take a look at these,

1320
01:05:38,400 --> 01:05:40,320
Speaker 1: like tell me what they were saying and talking about whatever.

1321
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:43,280
Speaker 1: And there was actually one of the videos in the background.

1322
01:05:43,320 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 1: You could fatally hear someone in the original post of

1323
01:05:46,120 --> 01:05:49,080
Speaker 1: the video say this is all fake when they first

1324
01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:51,800
Speaker 1: post it, and then they edited that out ultimately. But

1325
01:05:51,840 --> 01:05:54,960
Speaker 1: anyway he's trying to display. It's kind of a show

1326
01:05:55,000 --> 01:05:57,680
Speaker 1: of force, especially after let's put this next piece up

1327
01:05:57,680 --> 01:06:02,040
Speaker 1: on the screen. The International Criminal Court has issued an

1328
01:06:02,120 --> 01:06:07,960
Speaker 1: arrest warrant for Putin. Now, the ICC is kind of toothless,

1329
01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:10,920
Speaker 1: in part because we don't participate, so obviously none of

1330
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 1: our war criminals have been held to account by the ICC.

1331
01:06:14,320 --> 01:06:16,800
Speaker 1: No one expects Putin is actually going to be arrested

1332
01:06:16,840 --> 01:06:20,720
Speaker 1: and held accountable for alleged war crimes. But you know,

1333
01:06:20,760 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 1: this kind of a symbolic show. And one other thing

1334
01:06:23,760 --> 01:06:25,560
Speaker 1: just to keep in mind about the ICC, which has

1335
01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:28,080
Speaker 1: made it, you know, lose a lot of credibility. They

1336
01:06:28,080 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 1: have only ever tried Africans at this court, so any

1337
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:34,920
Speaker 1: other war crimes or atrocities around the world have not

1338
01:06:34,960 --> 01:06:39,680
Speaker 1: been subject to ICC prosecution. So a symbolic move here.

1339
01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:41,960
Speaker 1: I saw a lot of Atlantic Council neo lives me

1340
01:06:42,040 --> 01:06:44,360
Speaker 1: like this is a strong move by the international community,

1341
01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 1: and I'm just like, look, international law is fake. The

1342
01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:50,280
Speaker 1: only law that can be enforced between states is violence.

1343
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:52,880
Speaker 1: I don't wish that to be the case, but it

1344
01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:55,320
Speaker 1: is simply the truth. It's like whenever we have the

1345
01:06:55,440 --> 01:06:58,280
Speaker 1: World Trade Organization and then the great power sign up

1346
01:06:58,320 --> 01:07:00,440
Speaker 1: and not a single one of them actually bides by

1347
01:07:00,440 --> 01:07:03,040
Speaker 1: the WTO, and then the smaller nations tried to and

1348
01:07:03,080 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 1: they get screwed, and then they end up being just

1349
01:07:05,080 --> 01:07:08,120
Speaker 1: pawns of greater powers. Empire will always exist, it will

1350
01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 1: simply exist in different forms. I'm sorry to say it.

1351
01:07:10,800 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 1: With the ICC, as you say, there's a reason that

1352
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:15,240
Speaker 1: we don't support it or sign up to it because

1353
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:17,680
Speaker 1: we don't want our soldiers, our generals, our presidents, and

1354
01:07:17,720 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 1: our leaders ever be subject to the same thing. Well, right,

1355
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:23,960
Speaker 1: but actually leaders, well there have been past cases right

1356
01:07:23,960 --> 01:07:27,160
Speaker 1: where the ICC will look at generals and africanam and

1357
01:07:27,280 --> 01:07:28,920
Speaker 1: you know, the US military and others are like No,

1358
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:31,920
Speaker 1: the ultimate decider of whether the US military did right

1359
01:07:31,960 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 1: or wrong will be the President of the United States

1360
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:36,640
Speaker 1: and the universal what is it the UCMJ. I forget

1361
01:07:36,720 --> 01:07:38,600
Speaker 1: exactly what it stands for, but the Court of Military

1362
01:07:38,720 --> 01:07:41,600
Speaker 1: Justice instead of any ICC. There's another reason why we

1363
01:07:41,600 --> 01:07:44,160
Speaker 1: don't abide by it, for example, like the International Law

1364
01:07:44,200 --> 01:07:45,800
Speaker 1: of the Sea, because we're like, yeah, in de facto

1365
01:07:45,880 --> 01:07:47,840
Speaker 1: we agree, but in time of war, like we'll see,

1366
01:07:47,880 --> 01:07:50,400
Speaker 1: you know maybe and look all the country we lived

1367
01:07:50,400 --> 01:07:53,720
Speaker 1: in a world where leaders could consistently be held to

1368
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:56,680
Speaker 1: account around the world for the atrocities and crimes that

1369
01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 1: they commit. Sadly, we do not live in that world

1370
01:07:58,440 --> 01:08:01,440
Speaker 1: and we probably never will know. Sorry, the entire Wilsonian

1371
01:08:01,480 --> 01:08:03,560
Speaker 1: idea of all of this. I'm not saying a cooperation

1372
01:08:03,640 --> 01:08:06,880
Speaker 1: all that is not good. It certainly is in some cases.

1373
01:08:07,200 --> 01:08:11,760
Speaker 1: But as this shows, what is this and actually all

1374
01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:14,920
Speaker 1: that's really happened is that it's worsening tension, if possible

1375
01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:18,599
Speaker 1: between Washington and Moscow. Because now, what is Russia's message

1376
01:08:18,640 --> 01:08:20,679
Speaker 1: to its people and for the people who are supporting

1377
01:08:20,680 --> 01:08:24,479
Speaker 1: the war. This isn't a global NATO US led plot

1378
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:30,040
Speaker 1: against US to constrain us, to prosecute us, to isolate US.

1379
01:08:30,320 --> 01:08:34,400
Speaker 1: So an ICC warrant based on that. Nobody here is

1380
01:08:34,439 --> 01:08:37,600
Speaker 1: defending the actions of the Russian military in Ukraine. But

1381
01:08:37,640 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 1: we're just simply pointing out that politically, since this isn't

1382
01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:42,760
Speaker 1: going to happen, what is the actual utility of this?

1383
01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:45,160
Speaker 1: Joe Biden came out and said, quote I think it's

1384
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:47,479
Speaker 1: justified saying that the US is not even signed up

1385
01:08:47,479 --> 01:08:50,160
Speaker 1: for the ICC, but it makes a very strong quote

1386
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:53,080
Speaker 1: quo point saying that Putin has clearly committed war crimes.

1387
01:08:53,240 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting too that this just passed with

1388
01:08:56,200 --> 01:08:59,840
Speaker 1: any real consternation, where the original declaration of Putin as

1389
01:08:59,840 --> 01:09:02,640
Speaker 1: a war criminal, even many people in Washington saw that

1390
01:09:02,680 --> 01:09:05,840
Speaker 1: as a point of no return, because it's like, Okay, now,

1391
01:09:05,880 --> 01:09:07,559
Speaker 1: what are you going to do about it? To negotiate

1392
01:09:07,560 --> 01:09:09,519
Speaker 1: with this? Remember this too, which is the way that

1393
01:09:09,560 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 1: we've boxed ourselves in basically post Rwanda and all that is,

1394
01:09:13,479 --> 01:09:16,400
Speaker 1: any time we see anything, you know, with Rowanda and Cosolo, like,

1395
01:09:16,479 --> 01:09:17,920
Speaker 1: we are going to go in and if we have

1396
01:09:18,040 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 1: the ability to try and stop it. It's like, well,

1397
01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:22,040
Speaker 1: then the follow up question is like, so does that

1398
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:24,160
Speaker 1: mean that we can ever have proper relations with the

1399
01:09:24,200 --> 01:09:27,200
Speaker 1: Putin government? Ever? Again, that doesn't sound like a very

1400
01:09:27,280 --> 01:09:30,559
Speaker 1: good starting point for any sort of negotiations. Now, you know,

1401
01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:33,240
Speaker 1: wouldn't say that. It's not like we haven't called people

1402
01:09:33,280 --> 01:09:35,839
Speaker 1: war criminals in the past and then restored full relations

1403
01:09:35,840 --> 01:09:37,840
Speaker 1: whenever they happen to be useful, let's say, in a

1404
01:09:37,880 --> 01:09:40,920
Speaker 1: fight against communism. So it's not like the precedent there

1405
01:09:41,160 --> 01:09:44,840
Speaker 1: doesn't exist. But given like the neoliberal brain of here

1406
01:09:44,880 --> 01:09:48,599
Speaker 1: in Washington and specifically, we can't underestimate the view in

1407
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:51,240
Speaker 1: Moscow of this as a point of no return of

1408
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:55,400
Speaker 1: Moscow's relations with the international community. It's sets a bad precedent,

1409
01:09:55,439 --> 01:09:57,880
Speaker 1: I think. Yeah, and we're going to talk about the

1410
01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:02,599
Speaker 1: twenty year anniversary of the a Rock War invasion, something

1411
01:10:02,600 --> 01:10:05,759
Speaker 1: that Putin has invoked in terms of our own lawless

1412
01:10:05,840 --> 01:10:09,320
Speaker 1: behavior in justifying his own illegal invasion. Not that those

1413
01:10:09,360 --> 01:10:12,400
Speaker 1: things make any sense, but you know, he can also

1414
01:10:12,400 --> 01:10:14,280
Speaker 1: you can also look very clearly at all of the

1415
01:10:14,280 --> 01:10:17,679
Speaker 1: war criminals here that were involved in the Iraq War

1416
01:10:17,840 --> 01:10:21,400
Speaker 1: and the whorrors that that unfolded on the Rocky people

1417
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:23,479
Speaker 1: and ultimately on the entire region. In some ways in

1418
01:10:23,520 --> 01:10:27,040
Speaker 1: the world, they are all like wealthier than ever. They

1419
01:10:27,080 --> 01:10:29,839
Speaker 1: were certainly never held to account. So you can imagine

1420
01:10:29,880 --> 01:10:33,679
Speaker 1: him using similar rhetoric around you know, exactly how consistent

1421
01:10:33,720 --> 01:10:37,559
Speaker 1: we are in our calling out of war crimes and atrocity. Yeah,

1422
01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:39,800
Speaker 1: I've told that story before, but you know, apparently George W.

1423
01:10:39,880 --> 01:10:42,960
Speaker 1: Bush would lecture Putin on democracy and Putin would just

1424
01:10:43,000 --> 01:10:44,880
Speaker 1: look at him, who he speaks perfect English. He'd be like,

1425
01:10:44,880 --> 01:10:46,519
Speaker 1: we do not want the same democracy as you have

1426
01:10:46,600 --> 01:10:50,640
Speaker 1: given Iraq, and everyone in the room was like the

1427
01:10:50,920 --> 01:10:54,680
Speaker 1: fair boy. They well, this is also really relevant, go

1428
01:10:54,680 --> 01:10:56,839
Speaker 1: ahead and put this next piece up on the screen.

1429
01:10:57,439 --> 01:11:02,559
Speaker 1: So we reported that China has been making some overtures. Obviously,

1430
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:04,960
Speaker 1: they've been talking to Putin basically the whole time, and

1431
01:11:05,200 --> 01:11:08,320
Speaker 1: in fact she is in Moscow to meet for three

1432
01:11:08,400 --> 01:11:11,320
Speaker 1: days with you know, Putin and with other Russian leaders,

1433
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:14,479
Speaker 1: so incredibly significant moment. But they've been making overtures not

1434
01:11:14,560 --> 01:11:17,880
Speaker 1: just to Putin but also to Zelenski, and Zelensky has

1435
01:11:17,880 --> 01:11:20,160
Speaker 1: been sort of open to that he says, you'll call him. Yeah,

1436
01:11:21,120 --> 01:11:24,000
Speaker 1: They're supposed to talk potentially next week. China also put

1437
01:11:24,040 --> 01:11:26,280
Speaker 1: out kind of rough outline of what they thought a

1438
01:11:26,320 --> 01:11:30,800
Speaker 1: peace deal might look like, which Zelenski was also kind

1439
01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:33,720
Speaker 1: of open to. Well, now we have this report from

1440
01:11:33,720 --> 01:11:37,640
Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal that the US is trying to

1441
01:11:37,800 --> 01:11:42,720
Speaker 1: head off any potential proposals from Beijing for a ceasefire

1442
01:11:42,880 --> 01:11:46,519
Speaker 1: in Ukraine ahead of this Russia China summit. They say

1443
01:11:46,560 --> 01:11:50,840
Speaker 1: suspending fighting now would help solidify Russia's hold on Ukrainian territory.

1444
01:11:51,240 --> 01:11:54,760
Speaker 1: John Kirby said a ceasefire now is again effectively the

1445
01:11:54,880 --> 01:11:59,320
Speaker 1: ratification of Russian conquest. He said it would recognize Russia's

1446
01:11:59,360 --> 01:12:02,599
Speaker 1: territorial game means an occupation of Ukrainian territory, while giving

1447
01:12:02,680 --> 01:12:06,240
Speaker 1: Moscow a chance to entrench its positions and refresh its

1448
01:12:06,280 --> 01:12:10,400
Speaker 1: troops as Ukraine prepares for an anticipated spring offensive. Let

1449
01:12:10,439 --> 01:12:12,000
Speaker 1: me give you a little bit more of the details

1450
01:12:12,000 --> 01:12:14,080
Speaker 1: from this piece, and then we can react. And I

1451
01:12:14,120 --> 01:12:16,360
Speaker 1: have a lot to say about this. As Russia and

1452
01:12:16,439 --> 01:12:19,240
Speaker 1: China lay on the agenda for the Putinshi meeting, mister

1453
01:12:19,320 --> 01:12:21,720
Speaker 1: Kirby said the US wants to draw attention to any

1454
01:12:21,800 --> 01:12:24,200
Speaker 1: Chinese proposal for a ceasefire that would be one sided

1455
01:12:24,200 --> 01:12:26,880
Speaker 1: and reflect only the Russian perspective. He said he couldn't

1456
01:12:26,880 --> 01:12:29,519
Speaker 1: speak for Zelenski and whether he would accept that Chinese

1457
01:12:29,600 --> 01:12:32,640
Speaker 1: backed proposal, but quote, we certainly don't support calls for

1458
01:12:32,760 --> 01:12:34,920
Speaker 1: a ceasefire that would be called for by the PRC

1459
01:12:35,040 --> 01:12:37,599
Speaker 1: in a meeting in Moscow. They go on to say,

1460
01:12:37,720 --> 01:12:41,760
Speaker 1: mister Zelenski has taken a different approach with Beijing so far,

1461
01:12:42,120 --> 01:12:46,439
Speaker 1: commending the twelve point Chinese position paper on Ukraine. Mister Zelenski, however,

1462
01:12:46,439 --> 01:12:49,560
Speaker 1: stressed the Chinese paper's emphasis on territorial integrity, and his

1463
01:12:49,640 --> 01:12:52,240
Speaker 1: foreign minister said he also discussed the significance of the

1464
01:12:52,280 --> 01:12:56,040
Speaker 1: principle of territorial integrity in a phone call. So let

1465
01:12:56,040 --> 01:12:58,839
Speaker 1: me break this down for you. Ukraine, at least publicly

1466
01:12:59,000 --> 01:13:01,759
Speaker 1: has been sort of opened to these overtures. And remember

1467
01:13:01,760 --> 01:13:04,599
Speaker 1: how the US Biden's line is always nothing about Ukraine

1468
01:13:04,680 --> 01:13:08,240
Speaker 1: without Ukraine, except when it comes to China actually trying

1469
01:13:08,280 --> 01:13:11,360
Speaker 1: to do something useful here and potentially broke or receease fire.

1470
01:13:11,400 --> 01:13:14,799
Speaker 1: Oh no, we can't have that. Suddenly, the US feels

1471
01:13:14,800 --> 01:13:18,200
Speaker 1: emboldened to as certain their opinion that they want hostilities

1472
01:13:18,200 --> 01:13:22,360
Speaker 1: to continue. Lest we be embarrassed by the Chinese playing

1473
01:13:22,439 --> 01:13:25,320
Speaker 1: a significant role here as potential piece the Chinese do,

1474
01:13:25,360 --> 01:13:27,840
Speaker 1: we should be embarrassed. That's why the framing of our

1475
01:13:27,920 --> 01:13:29,559
Speaker 1: entire segment that for the last time we talked about this.

1476
01:13:29,640 --> 01:13:32,960
Speaker 1: It is a humiliation. It's an international humiliation. It also

1477
01:13:33,160 --> 01:13:37,080
Speaker 1: is the worst nightmare of the Nixonian strategy and the

1478
01:13:37,160 --> 01:13:41,080
Speaker 1: Kissingerian strategy of the nineteen seventies, where we recognized and look,

1479
01:13:41,160 --> 01:13:43,360
Speaker 1: the opening of China was a disaster for many reasons

1480
01:13:43,360 --> 01:13:45,559
Speaker 1: in the way that it was executed, but strategically it

1481
01:13:45,600 --> 01:13:48,040
Speaker 1: was a very smart idea. The idea was, China is

1482
01:13:48,040 --> 01:13:50,840
Speaker 1: a behemoth. It will grow inevitably, it will become one

1483
01:13:50,840 --> 01:13:53,439
Speaker 1: of the largest powers in East Asia. A linking up

1484
01:13:53,439 --> 01:13:56,960
Speaker 1: between our adversary at the time, the Soviet Union and

1485
01:13:57,080 --> 01:14:00,160
Speaker 1: China would be a geopolitical disaster for the United States.

1486
01:14:00,280 --> 01:14:02,240
Speaker 1: We should do everything in our power to exploit the

1487
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:05,679
Speaker 1: rift between Moscow and to Beijing, to draw relations between

1488
01:14:05,680 --> 01:14:08,120
Speaker 1: those two and to deny this power apparatus. That was

1489
01:14:08,120 --> 01:14:11,400
Speaker 1: the Kissingerian and Nixonian strategy, and it was fundamentally correct.

1490
01:14:11,439 --> 01:14:14,479
Speaker 1: Now again, we executed it in a very wrong way

1491
01:14:14,520 --> 01:14:18,080
Speaker 1: in terms of total neoliberalization, in terms of trade, etc.

1492
01:14:18,439 --> 01:14:20,720
Speaker 1: There was a way, absolutely, I think, to go back

1493
01:14:20,760 --> 01:14:23,280
Speaker 1: in time and to do it differently. Now we have

1494
01:14:23,400 --> 01:14:26,400
Speaker 1: actually forced the two powers together where they are now

1495
01:14:26,439 --> 01:14:30,519
Speaker 1: on the part where defining territorial integrity through invasion is

1496
01:14:30,560 --> 01:14:34,559
Speaker 1: a benefit to both of them China's case and want

1497
01:14:34,600 --> 01:14:37,439
Speaker 1: to take over Taiwan Putin's case in order to rescue

1498
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:40,800
Speaker 1: former territory that was from the Soviet Union. And with

1499
01:14:40,920 --> 01:14:43,720
Speaker 1: these two powers, by driving them together, they are more

1500
01:14:43,760 --> 01:14:48,240
Speaker 1: powerful today individually and then together than almost in the

1501
01:14:48,280 --> 01:14:51,080
Speaker 1: times of the Soviet Union, and with China together, I

1502
01:14:51,120 --> 01:14:53,920
Speaker 1: mean just because of the sheer amount of China size.

1503
01:14:54,000 --> 01:14:55,640
Speaker 1: So then when we look at this and to be

1504
01:14:55,720 --> 01:14:59,080
Speaker 1: humiliated on the international stage, and furthermore to look at

1505
01:14:59,080 --> 01:15:02,000
Speaker 1: this and take a mac simone's position on the peace deal,

1506
01:15:02,240 --> 01:15:05,559
Speaker 1: it's a big mistake. Following in the footstep, or following

1507
01:15:05,600 --> 01:15:08,519
Speaker 1: and supporting the Ukrainians in this endeavor is the way

1508
01:15:08,560 --> 01:15:10,639
Speaker 1: that we should be. Really, if it was a nothing

1509
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:14,360
Speaker 1: without Ukraine, nothing for Ukraine without Ukraine strategy, we'd been like, look,

1510
01:15:14,479 --> 01:15:17,160
Speaker 1: if mister Zelenski wants to entertain that opportunity, we are

1511
01:15:17,200 --> 01:15:19,840
Speaker 1: happy to back him up at the negotiating table. That's it,

1512
01:15:20,000 --> 01:15:23,840
Speaker 1: just say that he is the chief of Ukraine. And also,

1513
01:15:24,439 --> 01:15:28,040
Speaker 1: by the way, because Zelensky, remember this, anytime anyone in

1514
01:15:28,040 --> 01:15:30,439
Speaker 1: the West says something like this, like Elon, he attacks

1515
01:15:30,479 --> 01:15:32,320
Speaker 1: them as Putin's ponds and all this. You know why

1516
01:15:32,360 --> 01:15:35,160
Speaker 1: he's not saying that about China because he knows China

1517
01:15:35,280 --> 01:15:39,439
Speaker 1: is on the precipice of giving Russia lethal and heavy weapons.

1518
01:15:39,720 --> 01:15:41,920
Speaker 1: And if he were to just reject it out right,

1519
01:15:42,200 --> 01:15:46,120
Speaker 1: Beijing could say we tried, but uh, Zelenski says, he's

1520
01:15:46,160 --> 01:15:48,439
Speaker 1: not interested Putin. Here's all the weapons that you could

1521
01:15:48,479 --> 01:15:51,160
Speaker 1: ever want or ever need and use in the Ukraine conflict.

1522
01:15:51,439 --> 01:15:53,960
Speaker 1: That is why he can see the grand picture for

1523
01:15:54,040 --> 01:15:56,320
Speaker 1: his own country. He needs to shore up support in

1524
01:15:56,320 --> 01:15:59,000
Speaker 1: the West for as much as humanly possible. And by

1525
01:15:59,040 --> 01:16:01,280
Speaker 1: the way, the way he cutting the right war the

1526
01:16:01,280 --> 01:16:04,040
Speaker 1: war right now is ridiculous. If there were any actual

1527
01:16:04,240 --> 01:16:07,040
Speaker 1: military strategises who weren't wholly co opted by Ukraine, they

1528
01:16:07,040 --> 01:16:09,760
Speaker 1: would look at his expenditure of ammunition in places like

1529
01:16:09,760 --> 01:16:11,599
Speaker 1: Backwood and say, you're an idiot. What are you doing.

1530
01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:14,200
Speaker 1: You have no industrial base, you're running out of ammo,

1531
01:16:14,400 --> 01:16:17,040
Speaker 1: you've got six month runway, and America's probably not going

1532
01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:20,120
Speaker 1: to give you anymore. What are you actually going about

1533
01:16:20,640 --> 01:16:22,479
Speaker 1: if you look at it almost like a balance sheet

1534
01:16:22,680 --> 01:16:25,040
Speaker 1: in the way that he is prosecuting the war, and

1535
01:16:25,080 --> 01:16:28,800
Speaker 1: then what the potential insertion of Chinese weapons would do

1536
01:16:29,040 --> 01:16:31,320
Speaker 1: to the Russian military, cause it would be a full

1537
01:16:31,320 --> 01:16:34,280
Speaker 1: fledged disaster. And maybe he can see that because if

1538
01:16:34,280 --> 01:16:36,479
Speaker 1: I can see it start sitting here, he has access

1539
01:16:36,520 --> 01:16:38,680
Speaker 1: to the real information. Probably just assumes that we will

1540
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:40,720
Speaker 1: keep giving him everything he wants and say it's been

1541
01:16:40,800 --> 01:16:44,000
Speaker 1: the tradition since the war through Congress, since the war started,

1542
01:16:44,000 --> 01:16:45,920
Speaker 1: at least from the hundred Yeah, I mean, and that's

1543
01:16:45,920 --> 01:16:48,080
Speaker 1: another part that drives me nuts. Maybe this is something

1544
01:16:48,120 --> 01:16:49,720
Speaker 1: we could talk about as well tomorrow. But you know,

1545
01:16:49,800 --> 01:16:52,360
Speaker 1: his ammunition stock. He's acting like one of the Great

1546
01:16:52,400 --> 01:16:54,880
Speaker 1: powers in the middle of World War One. The difference

1547
01:16:54,920 --> 01:16:57,400
Speaker 1: is those great powers were actual great powers and had

1548
01:16:57,400 --> 01:17:00,800
Speaker 1: an industrial base to make more shells and can do money.

1549
01:17:01,080 --> 01:17:05,280
Speaker 1: Not only had an existing industrial base, but actually you know,

1550
01:17:05,400 --> 01:17:10,000
Speaker 1: spun up massive additional capacity, which you know, since we're

1551
01:17:10,040 --> 01:17:14,040
Speaker 1: their primary backer, like we're not spinning up additional capacity.

1552
01:17:14,160 --> 01:17:17,360
Speaker 1: So even our capacity is limited in terms of what

1553
01:17:17,600 --> 01:17:20,760
Speaker 1: we even could send them. But to go back to

1554
01:17:20,800 --> 01:17:23,280
Speaker 1: this report about China, I mean, there are a few

1555
01:17:23,280 --> 01:17:25,719
Speaker 1: things here, and I was talking to our friend Bronco

1556
01:17:25,800 --> 01:17:27,840
Speaker 1: about some of this and some of the lessons to

1557
01:17:27,880 --> 01:17:31,560
Speaker 1: take away from it. I mean, number one, the attitude

1558
01:17:31,640 --> 01:17:35,680
Speaker 1: towards the Chinese overtures here from the US government and

1559
01:17:35,680 --> 01:17:38,839
Speaker 1: their aligned media has been very dismissive, like, this isn't serious,

1560
01:17:39,040 --> 01:17:41,719
Speaker 1: it's not going to happen. Well, if it's not serious,

1561
01:17:41,760 --> 01:17:43,880
Speaker 1: then it's not going to happen. Why do you feel

1562
01:17:43,880 --> 01:17:47,240
Speaker 1: the need to come in over the top and say absolutely,

1563
01:17:47,240 --> 01:17:50,360
Speaker 1: no ceasefire. We're opposed to it. That's number one. Number Two,

1564
01:17:51,120 --> 01:17:53,800
Speaker 1: it really exposes and to me, this is the key point.

1565
01:17:54,520 --> 01:17:57,000
Speaker 1: How much of a lie this idea of like, oh,

1566
01:17:57,040 --> 01:17:59,840
Speaker 1: we're just backing Ukraine and doing what they want. We

1567
01:18:00,200 --> 01:18:03,720
Speaker 1: are so involved, I mean, we are proxy combatants, and

1568
01:18:03,800 --> 01:18:07,000
Speaker 1: so it has always been the case. It's just they're

1569
01:18:07,040 --> 01:18:10,360
Speaker 1: actually showing it now when Zelensky has shown some public

1570
01:18:10,400 --> 01:18:13,920
Speaker 1: signs of wanting to actually entertain these overtures, and we

1571
01:18:13,960 --> 01:18:16,679
Speaker 1: are very much opposed to it because we basically don't

1572
01:18:16,680 --> 01:18:18,760
Speaker 1: want to be humiliated and may think that we have

1573
01:18:18,880 --> 01:18:21,559
Speaker 1: something to gain from this war in definitely continuing at

1574
01:18:21,720 --> 01:18:25,680
Speaker 1: great expense to Ukrainian civilians and the Ukrainian economy and

1575
01:18:25,720 --> 01:18:29,080
Speaker 1: the world economy as well. So those pieces I think

1576
01:18:29,200 --> 01:18:32,320
Speaker 1: are really clear here. It's just like this whole farce

1577
01:18:32,400 --> 01:18:36,360
Speaker 1: of oh, nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine has always been

1578
01:18:36,439 --> 01:18:39,400
Speaker 1: a lie. And then the other piece zooming out from

1579
01:18:39,600 --> 01:18:45,240
Speaker 1: this particular conflict, China obviously just played deal maker in

1580
01:18:45,280 --> 01:18:49,200
Speaker 1: the Middle East as well. Treta Parsi has been warning

1581
01:18:49,240 --> 01:18:53,480
Speaker 1: about since we get ourselves embroiled as combatants co combatants

1582
01:18:53,520 --> 01:18:56,200
Speaker 1: effectively in these various conflicts in Middle East. Of course

1583
01:18:56,200 --> 01:18:59,320
Speaker 1: he's referring to Yemen. It makes it so, of course

1584
01:18:59,400 --> 01:19:02,080
Speaker 1: no one is going to listen to us as a

1585
01:19:02,120 --> 01:19:05,680
Speaker 1: peacemaker and a deal maker. Now China is sort of

1586
01:19:05,720 --> 01:19:10,000
Speaker 1: like tacitly Backdrope, but they haven't shipped those heavy weapons yet.

1587
01:19:10,160 --> 01:19:12,800
Speaker 1: You know, they've talked about the limitless relationship, but they

1588
01:19:12,920 --> 01:19:14,800
Speaker 1: haven't gone all in and they've said some things that

1589
01:19:14,800 --> 01:19:18,200
Speaker 1: have been critical of Russia as well, So they've maintained

1590
01:19:18,200 --> 01:19:22,559
Speaker 1: more credibility on the international stage in this conflict as

1591
01:19:22,720 --> 01:19:24,960
Speaker 1: a potential deal maker, which I think is also why

1592
01:19:25,000 --> 01:19:27,439
Speaker 1: the US finds themselves in a really bad position here. Yeah,

1593
01:19:27,479 --> 01:19:30,240
Speaker 1: now all of that well said, it's one of those

1594
01:19:30,280 --> 01:19:34,760
Speaker 1: where it looks geos like geo Is this even a word?

1595
01:19:34,800 --> 01:19:39,400
Speaker 1: Geostrategically probably not, that's like a bushism, but let's zoom out.

1596
01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:41,960
Speaker 1: I think it would be a disaster for American power

1597
01:19:41,960 --> 01:19:44,639
Speaker 1: and for American hegemony for something like this to happen.

1598
01:19:44,680 --> 01:19:47,720
Speaker 1: The Iraq Saudi thing or Iran Saudi thing, that's one

1599
01:19:47,720 --> 01:19:50,160
Speaker 1: thing that's you know, red, this is the most important

1600
01:19:50,160 --> 01:19:52,160
Speaker 1: thing going on in the globe. And if it were

1601
01:19:52,200 --> 01:19:54,799
Speaker 1: to come to a close with the US not literally

1602
01:19:54,920 --> 01:19:59,040
Speaker 1: at the center of the brokering process, that basically returns

1603
01:19:59,120 --> 01:20:02,519
Speaker 1: US to full blown tipolarity, which is a very unstable system.

1604
01:20:02,640 --> 01:20:05,040
Speaker 1: We would be it would be ironically, this is we're

1605
01:20:05,080 --> 01:20:08,080
Speaker 1: thinking of the Russia conflict in Ukraine through a US

1606
01:20:08,120 --> 01:20:12,439
Speaker 1: Hegemeni lens. This is all just eurosupremacy by disregarding the

1607
01:20:12,520 --> 01:20:15,559
Speaker 1: nation of the relations with the Global South, with India

1608
01:20:15,560 --> 01:20:17,680
Speaker 1: and with China, with Japan in South Korea, all of

1609
01:20:17,720 --> 01:20:20,439
Speaker 1: whom see the conflict very differently than the way that

1610
01:20:20,479 --> 01:20:23,120
Speaker 1: we do. So it's an ideological blind spot which would

1611
01:20:23,120 --> 01:20:25,519
Speaker 1: be a huge blow, I think to American power, and

1612
01:20:25,520 --> 01:20:27,840
Speaker 1: it would be an absolute humiliation of Joe Biden say

1613
01:20:27,880 --> 01:20:29,360
Speaker 1: something like this. I mean, I don't really care about

1614
01:20:29,400 --> 01:20:31,240
Speaker 1: American power. I just want the Lord to end because

1615
01:20:31,240 --> 01:20:33,879
Speaker 1: it's been devastating for them, and it's been pretty devastating

1616
01:20:33,920 --> 01:20:35,680
Speaker 1: for the world. Care about the American way of life,

1617
01:20:35,680 --> 01:20:38,800
Speaker 1: crystal all which is backed up by American power. I mean,

1618
01:20:38,840 --> 01:20:41,000
Speaker 1: we would be put in a multiple multipolar world. I

1619
01:20:41,040 --> 01:20:42,840
Speaker 1: think there's a lot of alarming if everyone wants to

1620
01:20:42,840 --> 01:20:45,559
Speaker 1: pay fifteen dollars a gallon for gas and for to

1621
01:20:45,600 --> 01:20:48,320
Speaker 1: never buy anything ever again for a cheap way, which

1622
01:20:48,360 --> 01:20:51,120
Speaker 1: is literally I'm not saying any oil and gas. Biden's

1623
01:20:51,160 --> 01:20:53,360
Speaker 1: green just green lit the Willow Project. Don't worry, We're

1624
01:20:53,360 --> 01:20:54,840
Speaker 1: going to be fine. It ain't going to make up

1625
01:20:54,840 --> 01:20:57,799
Speaker 1: any the loss of international control of the seas. Different

1626
01:20:57,800 --> 01:21:01,240
Speaker 1: debate for another day. All right, let's talk about imperialism

1627
01:21:01,920 --> 01:21:04,640
Speaker 1: with regard to the Iraq War. There have been a

1628
01:21:04,680 --> 01:21:08,960
Speaker 1: lot of retrospectives as yesterday was the twentieth anniversary of

1629
01:21:09,040 --> 01:21:12,639
Speaker 1: the Iraq War invasion. And by the way, I'm moderating

1630
01:21:12,640 --> 01:21:14,880
Speaker 1: a panel this week on Wednesday in partnership with the

1631
01:21:14,920 --> 01:21:17,080
Speaker 1: Quincy Institute. Go ahead and put this up on the screen. Guys.

1632
01:21:17,400 --> 01:21:20,759
Speaker 1: It's called bad news how the media marched just into

1633
01:21:20,920 --> 01:21:24,320
Speaker 1: war in Iraq and beyond. Some great panelists there. I

1634
01:21:24,320 --> 01:21:26,720
Speaker 1: hope you all will join us. There's a you can

1635
01:21:26,800 --> 01:21:29,360
Speaker 1: join in person or online, and we'll put the link

1636
01:21:29,400 --> 01:21:31,920
Speaker 1: in the description so you can check that out if

1637
01:21:31,920 --> 01:21:34,200
Speaker 1: that is interesting to you. But you know, there's been

1638
01:21:34,200 --> 01:21:38,120
Speaker 1: a lot of retrospectives Sager about how, you know, the

1639
01:21:38,320 --> 01:21:40,840
Speaker 1: sort of the worst villains of leaving us up to

1640
01:21:40,840 --> 01:21:44,479
Speaker 1: that war, and understandably so. But you had a great idea,

1641
01:21:44,560 --> 01:21:46,400
Speaker 1: which is, why don't we take a look at some

1642
01:21:46,439 --> 01:21:49,880
Speaker 1: of the people who were actually correct and quite courageous

1643
01:21:49,880 --> 01:21:53,320
Speaker 1: in their descent, because it's easy to forget how hard

1644
01:21:53,439 --> 01:21:56,640
Speaker 1: it was to be a dissenter at that point. I

1645
01:21:56,640 --> 01:21:58,679
Speaker 1: mean there was you know, just post nine to eleven,

1646
01:21:59,040 --> 01:22:02,040
Speaker 1: if you question and the president and the direction he

1647
01:22:02,080 --> 01:22:05,320
Speaker 1: was taking in the country. You were considered un American, unpatriotic,

1648
01:22:05,439 --> 01:22:09,519
Speaker 1: you were just absolutely smeared. The media, from liberal to

1649
01:22:09,560 --> 01:22:14,000
Speaker 1: conservative media, all marching effectively in lockstep. With a very

1650
01:22:14,040 --> 01:22:18,559
Speaker 1: few exceptions. It was very difficult to be a dissenter

1651
01:22:18,600 --> 01:22:20,639
Speaker 1: at this time. So we wanted to take a look

1652
01:22:20,680 --> 01:22:23,840
Speaker 1: at a few of the people who took brave stands

1653
01:22:24,320 --> 01:22:27,719
Speaker 1: in that era. Started with a couple of politicians here,

1654
01:22:28,000 --> 01:22:30,439
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders in particular, and Barbara Lee. Let's take a

1655
01:22:30,439 --> 01:22:32,839
Speaker 1: look at that. So the matter is that our allies

1656
01:22:32,960 --> 01:22:37,040
Speaker 1: now in that region, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, those countries say,

1657
01:22:37,479 --> 01:22:40,519
Speaker 1: don't do it. It would cause chaos in the region.

1658
01:22:40,960 --> 01:22:43,600
Speaker 1: The truth of the matter is, in my view, the

1659
01:22:43,720 --> 01:22:48,360
Speaker 1: happiest guy in the world would be Osama bin Laden

1660
01:22:48,640 --> 01:22:53,320
Speaker 1: if the United States waged a unilateral invasion of Iraq,

1661
01:22:53,760 --> 01:22:57,080
Speaker 1: because he would have more recruits for terrorism against this

1662
01:22:57,200 --> 01:23:01,000
Speaker 1: country that he could have used saven change the world.

1663
01:23:01,680 --> 01:23:04,640
Speaker 1: Our deepest fear is now haunted us. Yet I am

1664
01:23:04,680 --> 01:23:09,479
Speaker 1: convinced that military action will not prevent further acts of

1665
01:23:09,520 --> 01:23:12,880
Speaker 1: international terrorism against the United States. This is a very

1666
01:23:12,880 --> 01:23:18,000
Speaker 1: complex and complicated matter. Now this resolution will pass, although

1667
01:23:18,040 --> 01:23:20,400
Speaker 1: we all know that the President can wage a war

1668
01:23:20,479 --> 01:23:25,320
Speaker 1: even without it. However difficult this vote may be, some

1669
01:23:25,400 --> 01:23:29,759
Speaker 1: of us must urge the use of restraint. Our country

1670
01:23:29,800 --> 01:23:32,639
Speaker 1: is in a state of mourning. Some of us must say,

1671
01:23:32,720 --> 01:23:34,880
Speaker 1: let's step back for a moment. Let's just pause, just

1672
01:23:34,920 --> 01:23:38,160
Speaker 1: for a minute and think through the implications of our

1673
01:23:38,200 --> 01:23:42,160
Speaker 1: actions today so that this does not spiral out of control.

1674
01:23:42,520 --> 01:23:45,439
Speaker 1: I don't oppose war in all circumstances, And when I

1675
01:23:45,479 --> 01:23:48,559
Speaker 1: look out over this crowd today, I know there is

1676
01:23:48,600 --> 01:23:54,240
Speaker 1: no shortage of patriots or patriotism. What I do oppose

1677
01:23:55,360 --> 01:23:59,160
Speaker 1: is a dumb war. US rushing headlong into a war

1678
01:23:59,280 --> 01:24:03,360
Speaker 1: unilaterally was a mistake, and may still be a mistake

1679
01:24:03,520 --> 01:24:06,040
Speaker 1: if it has happened. Then at that point, what the

1680
01:24:06,040 --> 01:24:07,880
Speaker 1: debate's really going to be about is what's our long

1681
01:24:07,960 --> 01:24:09,800
Speaker 1: term commitment there? How much is it going to cost,

1682
01:24:10,160 --> 01:24:11,960
Speaker 1: What does it mean for us to rebuild a rock?

1683
01:24:12,280 --> 01:24:15,599
Speaker 1: How do we stabilize and make sure that this country

1684
01:24:15,800 --> 01:24:20,000
Speaker 1: doesn't splinter into factions between the Shiahs and the Kurds

1685
01:24:20,120 --> 01:24:23,679
Speaker 1: and the Sunnis. And that's of course Barack Obama there

1686
01:24:23,720 --> 01:24:27,400
Speaker 1: at the end, a reminder that this war not only

1687
01:24:27,520 --> 01:24:30,800
Speaker 1: was a disaster, but completely reshape politics. That clip, that

1688
01:24:30,880 --> 01:24:35,040
Speaker 1: two thousand and two speech, which someone almost didn't record,

1689
01:24:35,160 --> 01:24:37,439
Speaker 1: it was a happenstance. It was on video that won

1690
01:24:37,520 --> 01:24:39,639
Speaker 1: him the presidency of two thousand and eight. And look,

1691
01:24:39,720 --> 01:24:42,080
Speaker 1: I have quibbles with many of those people and policy

1692
01:24:42,080 --> 01:24:44,000
Speaker 1: and all that that was a heroic stance to take

1693
01:24:44,040 --> 01:24:46,840
Speaker 1: in two thousand and two, and unfortunately, not enough people

1694
01:24:46,920 --> 01:24:49,360
Speaker 1: did it. Not enough people stood up to President Bush

1695
01:24:49,560 --> 01:24:52,840
Speaker 1: to the unilateral monoculture that we were living in at

1696
01:24:52,840 --> 01:24:55,960
Speaker 1: the time, the O'Reillys and Fox and leading us to

1697
01:24:56,000 --> 01:24:59,520
Speaker 1: that war in Iraq. But it wasn't just them. MSNBC

1698
01:25:00,280 --> 01:25:04,479
Speaker 1: joined with them, CNN as well. The entire establishment was

1699
01:25:04,520 --> 01:25:07,679
Speaker 1: fully bought into this war. It became in vogue years

1700
01:25:07,760 --> 01:25:09,920
Speaker 1: later to turn against it. But for those who stood

1701
01:25:10,000 --> 01:25:12,200
Speaker 1: up at the time, they were on an island, and

1702
01:25:12,320 --> 01:25:15,559
Speaker 1: many of them suffered tremendous consequence. I actually remember Tucker

1703
01:25:15,600 --> 01:25:18,439
Speaker 1: Carlston talking about this, about how he initially was supported

1704
01:25:18,439 --> 01:25:20,320
Speaker 1: the war in Iraq and received a lot of pressure

1705
01:25:20,320 --> 01:25:22,320
Speaker 1: for the Bush White House to do so, and actually

1706
01:25:22,320 --> 01:25:24,720
Speaker 1: turned against it within about year six months to a

1707
01:25:24,840 --> 01:25:28,040
Speaker 1: year of the war and was frozen out completely by

1708
01:25:28,120 --> 01:25:31,320
Speaker 1: the Republican establishment at the time for daring to come

1709
01:25:31,360 --> 01:25:34,320
Speaker 1: out and speak we should forget, we shouldn't forget. It

1710
01:25:34,400 --> 01:25:37,960
Speaker 1: was really Donald Trump in twenty sixteen who broke the

1711
01:25:38,000 --> 01:25:41,519
Speaker 1: Iraq ceiling on the debate stage when he challenged President

1712
01:25:41,760 --> 01:25:44,120
Speaker 1: Jet Bush and said, and Jet Bush was like my

1713
01:25:44,120 --> 01:25:46,519
Speaker 1: brother kept us safe and Trump was like, no, he didn't.

1714
01:25:46,560 --> 01:25:48,760
Speaker 1: The Iraq War was the greatest disaster of all time,

1715
01:25:49,040 --> 01:25:50,960
Speaker 1: and that was it that finally made it okay for

1716
01:25:51,040 --> 01:25:53,760
Speaker 1: Republicans to admit it. That took what was a fifth

1717
01:25:54,120 --> 01:25:56,680
Speaker 1: fourteen years to get to that point. I mean, you

1718
01:25:56,720 --> 01:25:59,799
Speaker 1: could make a case that not only was Barack Obama PRESCO,

1719
01:26:01,080 --> 01:26:03,439
Speaker 1: but Donald Trump as well. So the extent that this

1720
01:26:03,560 --> 01:26:07,439
Speaker 1: c recha politics, I mean, cannot possibly be overstated. And

1721
01:26:07,840 --> 01:26:11,240
Speaker 1: to your point, Sager about MSNBC, which was kind of

1722
01:26:11,240 --> 01:26:13,720
Speaker 1: a different outlet at that point. In the early days

1723
01:26:13,720 --> 01:26:16,520
Speaker 1: of MSNBC, they were just trying to be like another CNN,

1724
01:26:16,920 --> 01:26:19,479
Speaker 1: and they hadn't landed on what would ultimately you know,

1725
01:26:19,560 --> 01:26:22,880
Speaker 1: Keith Olvervin then shows up and he's doing you know,

1726
01:26:23,120 --> 01:26:25,920
Speaker 1: Countdown and that's tremendously popular and it's liberal, and then

1727
01:26:25,920 --> 01:26:27,479
Speaker 1: they're sort of like, oh, this is the business model

1728
01:26:27,479 --> 01:26:30,240
Speaker 1: we want to lean into. This was before those days.

1729
01:26:30,760 --> 01:26:35,160
Speaker 1: And Phil Donahue was one of the few voices that

1730
01:26:35,320 --> 01:26:39,479
Speaker 1: was critical of the Iraq War and we also have

1731
01:26:39,600 --> 01:26:42,200
Speaker 1: so we have him and he ended up losing his job,

1732
01:26:42,240 --> 01:26:45,160
Speaker 1: where a memo was uncovered after the fact that explicitly

1733
01:26:45,200 --> 01:26:48,240
Speaker 1: stated that they wanted his show was the top rated

1734
01:26:48,240 --> 01:26:50,960
Speaker 1: show on the network, and they fired him because they

1735
01:26:51,000 --> 01:26:53,800
Speaker 1: wanted to get a pro war voice in there. They

1736
01:26:53,800 --> 01:26:55,640
Speaker 1: didn't want to be, you know, seen as traders or

1737
01:26:55,720 --> 01:26:58,840
Speaker 1: un American or whatever. So he gets fired over his

1738
01:27:00,479 --> 01:27:03,160
Speaker 1: here and we also have Michael Wore, who gave quite

1739
01:27:03,160 --> 01:27:06,160
Speaker 1: a stunning Oscar acceptance speech. Stories basically like played off

1740
01:27:06,160 --> 01:27:08,680
Speaker 1: the stage as well. To give you a sense of

1741
01:27:08,720 --> 01:27:10,439
Speaker 1: how fraught this was at the time, take a listen.

1742
01:27:11,040 --> 01:27:14,800
Speaker 1: At that time, half the political voice in this nation

1743
01:27:14,960 --> 01:27:20,280
Speaker 1: was silence, really, and I believe most people at that

1744
01:27:20,400 --> 01:27:25,559
Speaker 1: time opposed this war. Most people did, what are we

1745
01:27:25,720 --> 01:27:32,240
Speaker 1: why I'll come over there? And yet every metropolitan, every

1746
01:27:32,360 --> 01:27:36,360
Speaker 1: major metropolitan newspaper in this country supported the invasion of Iraq.

1747
01:27:36,479 --> 01:27:41,519
Speaker 1: Think about that for a minute, every major metropolitan This

1748
01:27:41,560 --> 01:27:44,439
Speaker 1: is what you can do with the politics of fear.

1749
01:27:45,160 --> 01:27:48,200
Speaker 1: The Bush took this whole nation and the whole media

1750
01:27:48,400 --> 01:27:53,800
Speaker 1: establishment by the ear and let it right into the sword. Amazing.

1751
01:27:53,920 --> 01:27:58,880
Speaker 1: In the land of free speech, free press, we live

1752
01:27:58,920 --> 01:28:02,519
Speaker 1: in a time where we have a man sending us

1753
01:28:02,560 --> 01:28:07,880
Speaker 1: to war for fictitious reasons, whether it's the fictition of

1754
01:28:08,080 --> 01:28:12,400
Speaker 1: duct tape or the fictitious of orange alerts. We are

1755
01:28:12,439 --> 01:28:16,360
Speaker 1: against this war. Mister Bush. Shame on you, mister Bush,

1756
01:28:16,439 --> 01:28:19,960
Speaker 1: Shame on you. At any time you've got the pup

1757
01:28:20,040 --> 01:28:24,960
Speaker 1: and they chuck you're kind of duck. For all the

1758
01:28:24,960 --> 01:28:27,200
Speaker 1: talk of Hollywood being liberal and all that at the

1759
01:28:27,240 --> 01:28:29,320
Speaker 1: time when it was in vogue, they were booing him

1760
01:28:29,520 --> 01:28:32,160
Speaker 1: while he was there on the stage. And then Phil Donahue,

1761
01:28:32,240 --> 01:28:34,559
Speaker 1: he literally lost his job, you know, we were doing

1762
01:28:34,640 --> 01:28:37,839
Speaker 1: some reading. He was replaced by a show called literally

1763
01:28:37,960 --> 01:28:41,559
Speaker 1: Countdown Iraq hosted by Lester Holt, who is now on

1764
01:28:41,920 --> 01:28:46,000
Speaker 1: the nightly news. Amazing that that is supposedly a trusted figure.

1765
01:28:46,160 --> 01:28:48,679
Speaker 1: And Donahue, I mean, you know, this was a real

1766
01:28:48,720 --> 01:28:50,280
Speaker 1: career blow to him. At the time, there were one,

1767
01:28:50,360 --> 01:28:52,680
Speaker 1: no internet shows that he was able to go out

1768
01:28:52,680 --> 01:28:55,759
Speaker 1: and start for himself. If you were taken off the cable,

1769
01:28:55,800 --> 01:28:58,400
Speaker 1: you were dead for a long time. And really the

1770
01:28:58,479 --> 01:29:00,920
Speaker 1: vindication of their views. So I thought it was important

1771
01:29:00,920 --> 01:29:03,479
Speaker 1: to pay homage to these people. It's never popular in

1772
01:29:03,520 --> 01:29:05,800
Speaker 1: the moment to speak out against that. The only thing

1773
01:29:05,800 --> 01:29:07,720
Speaker 1: I do think he's wrong about is, unfortunately, I think

1774
01:29:07,760 --> 01:29:09,559
Speaker 1: the majority of people did believe in the Iraq War.

1775
01:29:09,680 --> 01:29:12,120
Speaker 1: You can blame the media. You could blame Bush, and

1776
01:29:12,200 --> 01:29:15,960
Speaker 1: ultimately Bush is the one most responsible for pushing the propaganda.

1777
01:29:16,000 --> 01:29:19,120
Speaker 1: But the President had an extraordinary amount of trust by

1778
01:29:19,160 --> 01:29:21,799
Speaker 1: the American people at that time to quote, keep us safe.

1779
01:29:22,000 --> 01:29:24,679
Speaker 1: He blew it in Afghanistan, spent all of his political

1780
01:29:24,680 --> 01:29:28,040
Speaker 1: capital on Iraq. And it really wasn't until five when

1781
01:29:28,080 --> 01:29:31,920
Speaker 1: the deaths started crump really going up amongst American soldiers

1782
01:29:31,920 --> 01:29:35,120
Speaker 1: in the security situation became a total disaster. Did the

1783
01:29:35,160 --> 01:29:38,719
Speaker 1: American people really turn against it? Yeah? Well, I mean

1784
01:29:38,960 --> 01:29:42,760
Speaker 1: I was doing some reading in preparation for moderating this

1785
01:29:42,840 --> 01:29:45,600
Speaker 1: panel and refreshing my memory about some of the dynamics

1786
01:29:45,600 --> 01:29:47,640
Speaker 1: and some of the villains and all of that, and

1787
01:29:47,720 --> 01:29:50,439
Speaker 1: I found there was a fairness and accuracy in reporting.

1788
01:29:50,560 --> 01:29:53,920
Speaker 1: Analysis of two weeks of coverage in the lead up

1789
01:29:54,000 --> 01:29:56,760
Speaker 1: to the war, they found two hundred and twenty two

1790
01:29:57,080 --> 01:29:58,960
Speaker 1: of the two hundred and ninety seven current and retired

1791
01:29:58,960 --> 01:30:02,480
Speaker 1: officials that networks overwhelmingly relied on as guests were associated

1792
01:30:02,520 --> 01:30:06,160
Speaker 1: with governments that were back in the war. Four out

1793
01:30:06,160 --> 01:30:09,439
Speaker 1: of the two hundred ninety seven were critical. Four Wow.

1794
01:30:09,800 --> 01:30:12,960
Speaker 1: So yeah, of course, the American people that all they

1795
01:30:13,040 --> 01:30:16,000
Speaker 1: heard were voices that we have to do this, and

1796
01:30:16,160 --> 01:30:18,799
Speaker 1: they they were convinced. Nearly two thirds of the public

1797
01:30:19,040 --> 01:30:22,120
Speaker 1: thought Saddam Hussein and played a role in September eleventh attacks.

1798
01:30:22,360 --> 01:30:26,800
Speaker 1: Ninety percent believed he had WMD. So the propaganda was

1799
01:30:26,880 --> 01:30:31,479
Speaker 1: so thick and coming at you from effectively every single

1800
01:30:31,640 --> 01:30:35,439
Speaker 1: corner of the media, virtually without field. I mean, there

1801
01:30:35,520 --> 01:30:40,120
Speaker 1: are like a handful of reporters who were critical and

1802
01:30:40,160 --> 01:30:42,360
Speaker 1: skeptical of the case that was being made by the

1803
01:30:42,360 --> 01:30:45,640
Speaker 1: Bush administration. For Yeah, when you have that sort of

1804
01:30:45,640 --> 01:30:49,160
Speaker 1: force coming from the media at the American public, yeah,

1805
01:30:49,200 --> 01:30:51,400
Speaker 1: you're going to end up with majority of people saying, oh,

1806
01:30:51,400 --> 01:30:53,639
Speaker 1: we have to do I guess we have to do that. Literally,

1807
01:30:53,680 --> 01:30:55,559
Speaker 1: everyone I hear says we have to do this. The

1808
01:30:55,600 --> 01:30:57,439
Speaker 1: other part two is why the reason we played the

1809
01:30:57,479 --> 01:31:00,400
Speaker 1: lawmakers first is if anyone had the power to stop

1810
01:31:00,439 --> 01:31:03,760
Speaker 1: this war, it was Congress. Congress had the ability to

1811
01:31:04,000 --> 01:31:07,080
Speaker 1: question what was actually going on, to subpoena more. They

1812
01:31:07,120 --> 01:31:10,360
Speaker 1: had the ability to have the intelligence assessments, question those

1813
01:31:10,360 --> 01:31:14,120
Speaker 1: intelligence assessments with the CIA, with George Tenant, call them

1814
01:31:14,120 --> 01:31:17,960
Speaker 1: into back rooms, actually exert some pressure, deliver a real

1815
01:31:18,000 --> 01:31:19,479
Speaker 1: report to them as to whether they were going to

1816
01:31:19,520 --> 01:31:22,200
Speaker 1: vote for that authorization of military use of force against

1817
01:31:22,200 --> 01:31:26,120
Speaker 1: Iraq or not. They abdicated that responsibility harder, even more so,

1818
01:31:26,160 --> 01:31:27,800
Speaker 1: I would say, than the media. The media and they

1819
01:31:27,840 --> 01:31:31,200
Speaker 1: did not have access to that information. Congress actually did.

1820
01:31:31,320 --> 01:31:35,120
Speaker 1: They bought the Bush administration hook line and sinker, and look,

1821
01:31:35,120 --> 01:31:37,160
Speaker 1: it was a disaster. It was a disaster for all time.

1822
01:31:37,400 --> 01:31:40,120
Speaker 1: And you know, thousands of American soldiers are dead. Who

1823
01:31:40,360 --> 01:31:43,519
Speaker 1: nobody knows how many Iraqis are dead. It literally could

1824
01:31:43,560 --> 01:31:47,120
Speaker 1: be in the millions. Not to mention the destruction of Syria,

1825
01:31:47,280 --> 01:31:49,599
Speaker 1: the rise of isis the fact that we took our

1826
01:31:49,600 --> 01:31:51,120
Speaker 1: eye off the ball. It took us ten years and

1827
01:31:51,120 --> 01:31:53,559
Speaker 1: how many billions of dollars to eventually kill Bin Laden,

1828
01:31:53,600 --> 01:31:55,000
Speaker 1: which is what we wanted to do there in the

1829
01:31:55,000 --> 01:31:58,080
Speaker 1: first place, and then twenty years in Afghanistan. The entire

1830
01:31:58,120 --> 01:32:00,720
Speaker 1: thing was It's such a nightmare. I don't think I

1831
01:32:00,720 --> 01:32:02,920
Speaker 1: would be in politics if it wasn't for the Iraq War.

1832
01:32:03,080 --> 01:32:06,120
Speaker 1: You know, probably would probably would fulfill my parents' dreams

1833
01:32:06,120 --> 01:32:08,960
Speaker 1: and become an engineer. But I just remember I was

1834
01:32:09,000 --> 01:32:10,479
Speaker 1: looking at this and I was like, man, this is

1835
01:32:10,520 --> 01:32:13,400
Speaker 1: so wrong. And you know, just over the years, getting

1836
01:32:13,640 --> 01:32:17,639
Speaker 1: to know people who were maimed and killed in Iraq,

1837
01:32:17,680 --> 01:32:20,519
Speaker 1: and it's just man twenty years later. I can't even

1838
01:32:20,520 --> 01:32:25,960
Speaker 1: believe for what for what? All? Right, Tagar, what are

1839
01:32:25,960 --> 01:32:27,800
Speaker 1: you looking at? Well, believe me when I say this,

1840
01:32:27,960 --> 01:32:30,479
Speaker 1: I really would rather not talk about Lab league ever again.

1841
01:32:30,560 --> 01:32:32,880
Speaker 1: I wish that we could just come to the obvious consensus.

1842
01:32:33,560 --> 01:32:36,479
Speaker 1: It's the absolute most likely scenario for the origin of COVID.

1843
01:32:36,680 --> 01:32:39,200
Speaker 1: We'd ban gain a function research that alone would be

1844
01:32:39,200 --> 01:32:41,840
Speaker 1: a modest and reasonable victory. Prosecuting Fauci would be a

1845
01:32:41,840 --> 01:32:44,360
Speaker 1: tremendous plus. But given how the powerful get protected in

1846
01:32:44,400 --> 01:32:46,599
Speaker 1: this country, we all know that's just never going to happen,

1847
01:32:46,680 --> 01:32:49,640
Speaker 1: especially under this administration. But the media simply will not

1848
01:32:49,760 --> 01:32:52,240
Speaker 1: let it die. Ever since the Energy Department the FBI

1849
01:32:52,360 --> 01:32:54,759
Speaker 1: made it public that they believe COVID lead from the lab,

1850
01:32:54,880 --> 01:32:57,719
Speaker 1: they have gone into literal overdrive to try and push

1851
01:32:57,760 --> 01:33:01,040
Speaker 1: the bunk natural origin hypothesis, joined in part by the

1852
01:33:01,040 --> 01:33:04,559
Speaker 1: World Health Organization and by the CCP, the scientists also

1853
01:33:04,600 --> 01:33:07,519
Speaker 1: who helped cover up the Laby hypothesis in the first place.

1854
01:33:07,720 --> 01:33:10,000
Speaker 1: And it's all started this weekend with a new seemingly

1855
01:33:10,040 --> 01:33:13,880
Speaker 1: stunning story in the Atlantic, the strongest evidence yet an

1856
01:33:13,920 --> 01:33:17,360
Speaker 1: animals started the pandemic. Wow, I'm listening, Okay. A new

1857
01:33:17,400 --> 01:33:20,680
Speaker 1: analysis from China appears to link the pandemic's origin to

1858
01:33:20,840 --> 01:33:24,960
Speaker 1: raccoon dogs. Raccoon dogs? What first it was bat soup?

1859
01:33:25,000 --> 01:33:28,400
Speaker 1: Then panglins announce raccoon dogs? Okay, let's keep reading well.

1860
01:33:28,439 --> 01:33:31,320
Speaker 1: According to a new analysis, some data from Chinese CDC

1861
01:33:31,720 --> 01:33:34,320
Speaker 1: mysteriously was made public just a few weeks ago for

1862
01:33:34,360 --> 01:33:37,280
Speaker 1: only a few hours. This data included swabs of animals

1863
01:33:37,320 --> 01:33:40,360
Speaker 1: from the Wuhan wet market in late twenty nineteen. The

1864
01:33:40,439 --> 01:33:43,080
Speaker 1: data was then analyzed by three scientists who say that

1865
01:33:43,120 --> 01:33:45,960
Speaker 1: the samples collected in late twenty nineteen show the presence

1866
01:33:46,000 --> 01:33:48,280
Speaker 1: of stars Kobe two virus in a raccoon dog sample.

1867
01:33:48,479 --> 01:33:51,479
Speaker 1: There's just one big problem, though. The lead scientists on

1868
01:33:51,520 --> 01:33:54,160
Speaker 1: the paper is Christian Anderson, one of the scientists who

1869
01:33:54,200 --> 01:33:56,720
Speaker 1: first observed to Fauji that the virus was quote not

1870
01:33:56,840 --> 01:34:00,560
Speaker 1: consistent with evolutionary theory, and then acted as an apparatic

1871
01:34:00,640 --> 01:34:03,599
Speaker 1: to cover up any discussion of COVID being man made.

1872
01:34:03,680 --> 01:34:06,599
Speaker 1: He's sent since then has attempted to leverage this position

1873
01:34:06,840 --> 01:34:10,280
Speaker 1: to silence lab league evidence and is a major proponent

1874
01:34:10,560 --> 01:34:15,439
Speaker 1: and history with gain of function research. Next, the actual

1875
01:34:15,479 --> 01:34:18,320
Speaker 1: sample itself. Like I said, it was collected in late

1876
01:34:18,320 --> 01:34:22,080
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, but the timeline here is actually everything. Nobody

1877
01:34:22,120 --> 01:34:24,800
Speaker 1: has disputed that COVID nineteen may not have been president

1878
01:34:24,840 --> 01:34:27,320
Speaker 1: of the Wuhan wet market. The question is how did

1879
01:34:27,320 --> 01:34:30,800
Speaker 1: it get there via animals or by people who were

1880
01:34:30,840 --> 01:34:34,360
Speaker 1: infected at the lab and by those who they then infected,

1881
01:34:34,600 --> 01:34:37,920
Speaker 1: including some animals. The reason late twenty nineteen really doesn't

1882
01:34:37,920 --> 01:34:41,040
Speaker 1: matter is because we have reams of open source data

1883
01:34:41,240 --> 01:34:44,720
Speaker 1: to show us that COVID was already widespread throughout the

1884
01:34:44,760 --> 01:34:47,439
Speaker 1: city of Wuhan at the time that that sample was collected.

1885
01:34:47,560 --> 01:34:51,160
Speaker 1: As I've already previously laid out, geospatial analysis from Harvard

1886
01:34:51,160 --> 01:34:54,720
Speaker 1: and Boston University has found parking lot volume of all

1887
01:34:54,800 --> 01:34:57,840
Speaker 1: hospitals in Wuhan had the highest daily volume of cars

1888
01:34:58,040 --> 01:35:01,000
Speaker 1: in the parking lot in September and October over twenty nineteen,

1889
01:35:01,439 --> 01:35:05,080
Speaker 1: long before the CCC perverse reported any cases of COVID,

1890
01:35:05,240 --> 01:35:08,320
Speaker 1: along with a massive spike in SARCH terms in the

1891
01:35:08,320 --> 01:35:10,920
Speaker 1: city of Wuhan for the Chinese version of Google for

1892
01:35:11,040 --> 01:35:15,200
Speaker 1: terms of cough and diarrhea. Not only that foreign athletes

1893
01:35:15,240 --> 01:35:18,439
Speaker 1: at the twenty nineteen World Military Games held in Wuhan.

1894
01:35:18,560 --> 01:35:23,280
Speaker 1: In October twenty nineteen reported COVID liked symptoms. Athletes remember

1895
01:35:23,400 --> 01:35:25,840
Speaker 1: that Wuhan looked pretty weird at the time. One says

1896
01:35:25,840 --> 01:35:27,680
Speaker 1: that he got his temperature taken to the airport. They

1897
01:35:27,720 --> 01:35:30,880
Speaker 1: also described in October the city of fifteen million looked

1898
01:35:30,920 --> 01:35:34,000
Speaker 1: like it was on lockdown. A Canadian athlete described this quote,

1899
01:35:34,040 --> 01:35:37,799
Speaker 1: I got very sick twelve days after we arrived, fever, chills, vomiting,

1900
01:35:37,840 --> 01:35:40,800
Speaker 1: insomnia on our flight home. Sixty Canadian athletes in the

1901
01:35:40,800 --> 01:35:42,680
Speaker 1: flight were put in isolation at the back of the

1902
01:35:42,680 --> 01:35:44,720
Speaker 1: plane for the twelve hour flight. We were sick with

1903
01:35:44,760 --> 01:35:48,320
Speaker 1: symptoms ranging from cough to diarrhea and in between. Later

1904
01:35:48,400 --> 01:35:52,200
Speaker 1: analysis by Italy, Brazil, Sweden, and France confirms they had

1905
01:35:52,240 --> 01:35:55,799
Speaker 1: patients within their borders who had COVID antibodies from before

1906
01:35:56,040 --> 01:35:58,640
Speaker 1: November twenty nineteen. In other words, by that time this

1907
01:35:58,720 --> 01:36:01,120
Speaker 1: raccoon dog sample was taken, COVID had leaked from the

1908
01:36:01,160 --> 01:36:04,920
Speaker 1: lab two months earlier. Almost certainly in September twenty nineteen,

1909
01:36:05,120 --> 01:36:08,760
Speaker 1: Wuhan was likely already fully infected. Was literally any of

1910
01:36:08,760 --> 01:36:11,400
Speaker 1: this noted by the Atlantic No, They in fact, used

1911
01:36:11,400 --> 01:36:14,080
Speaker 1: the late twenty nineteen date as gospel, because that's when

1912
01:36:14,360 --> 01:36:17,280
Speaker 1: China says that they had the pandemic started, not when

1913
01:36:17,320 --> 01:36:20,520
Speaker 1: the actual pandemic had already begun. So we have scientists

1914
01:36:20,520 --> 01:36:23,080
Speaker 1: with the motive, We have a timeline that makes no sense.

1915
01:36:23,280 --> 01:36:26,160
Speaker 1: What about the data itself, that too is a real mystery.

1916
01:36:26,320 --> 01:36:29,400
Speaker 1: So Chinese data with animal swabs that supposedly show a

1917
01:36:29,439 --> 01:36:32,439
Speaker 1: wet market to origin just miraculously appeared in an open

1918
01:36:32,479 --> 01:36:35,679
Speaker 1: source database three years later and then mysteriously taken down

1919
01:36:35,720 --> 01:36:38,559
Speaker 1: after that. Why you think the Chinese just suddenly dropped

1920
01:36:38,560 --> 01:36:41,519
Speaker 1: their opsec or maybe they can see people like us

1921
01:36:41,560 --> 01:36:44,320
Speaker 1: talk about this and people like you who don't believe them,

1922
01:36:44,479 --> 01:36:47,040
Speaker 1: and they use their scientific allies to push this worse.

1923
01:36:47,200 --> 01:36:50,160
Speaker 1: The new raccoon dog theory is all the rage over

1924
01:36:50,240 --> 01:36:53,920
Speaker 1: at the World Health Organization, the who is buying this crap?

1925
01:36:54,000 --> 01:36:56,240
Speaker 1: Hook line and sinker. They are now calling on China

1926
01:36:56,280 --> 01:36:58,680
Speaker 1: to release the data that they just clearly released to

1927
01:36:58,760 --> 01:37:01,200
Speaker 1: try and show a raccoon dog origin of COVID. Now,

1928
01:37:01,240 --> 01:37:04,559
Speaker 1: if they do, it'll just confirm their previous findings. Let

1929
01:37:04,560 --> 01:37:07,240
Speaker 1: me repeat, this is a syop. There is only one

1930
01:37:07,280 --> 01:37:09,599
Speaker 1: set of data that needs to be released. The log

1931
01:37:09,640 --> 01:37:11,639
Speaker 1: of samples of the Wuhan lab that was taken down

1932
01:37:11,720 --> 01:37:15,120
Speaker 1: mysteriously in September twenty nineteen, when COVID likely leave from

1933
01:37:15,160 --> 01:37:17,360
Speaker 1: there in the first place. A record of employees and

1934
01:37:17,400 --> 01:37:20,839
Speaker 1: their causes of death illness records. We already know multiple

1935
01:37:20,840 --> 01:37:23,120
Speaker 1: researchers at the Wuhan lab we're deathly ill in November

1936
01:37:23,160 --> 01:37:26,000
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. Release that data when and how many of

1937
01:37:26,000 --> 01:37:28,919
Speaker 1: your employees were hospitalized with COVID like symptoms in twenty

1938
01:37:29,120 --> 01:37:31,679
Speaker 1: nineteen the entire year. That's the data that we need,

1939
01:37:31,800 --> 01:37:33,439
Speaker 1: and we need to get our hands on. You see

1940
01:37:33,439 --> 01:37:35,360
Speaker 1: any of the WHO and the US government or the

1941
01:37:35,360 --> 01:37:37,559
Speaker 1: media asking for any of that, No, of course, if

1942
01:37:37,600 --> 01:37:40,200
Speaker 1: they don't, this is the whole ballgame, and really it

1943
01:37:40,240 --> 01:37:43,000
Speaker 1: would be the only smoking gun proof we would ever

1944
01:37:43,040 --> 01:37:45,760
Speaker 1: get to confirm a lab leak. But at this point,

1945
01:37:46,120 --> 01:37:50,680
Speaker 1: ask yourself, what other theory makes sense. Chinese people were

1946
01:37:50,680 --> 01:37:53,360
Speaker 1: eating raw dog meat at the Wuhan wet market with

1947
01:37:53,439 --> 01:37:55,639
Speaker 1: a side of bat soup. We just happen to find

1948
01:37:55,680 --> 01:37:58,439
Speaker 1: out about that right now, or it came from the

1949
01:37:58,520 --> 01:38:02,519
Speaker 1: unsafe bio lab a few miles away. It's comical at

1950
01:38:02,520 --> 01:38:05,960
Speaker 1: this point to consider the natural origin hypothesis. When we

1951
01:38:06,000 --> 01:38:09,720
Speaker 1: have so much data, so many points that point right

1952
01:38:09,760 --> 01:38:12,160
Speaker 1: to the lab, it won't stop the media from trying, apparently,

1953
01:38:12,320 --> 01:38:14,680
Speaker 1: or the who or those who don't already want to

1954
01:38:14,680 --> 01:38:18,679
Speaker 1: believe of course already uncritically passing along this report. It's

1955
01:38:18,720 --> 01:38:21,000
Speaker 1: the latest sye op. And next they're going to come

1956
01:38:21,080 --> 01:38:23,519
Speaker 1: up with a different animal to blame. So first it

1957
01:38:23,560 --> 01:38:26,120
Speaker 1: was the bat NASA raccoon dog. And if you want

1958
01:38:26,160 --> 01:38:29,280
Speaker 1: to hear my reaction to Sagres's monologue, become a premium

1959
01:38:29,280 --> 01:38:34,640
Speaker 1: subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. All right, Chris wal'

1960
01:38:34,640 --> 01:38:37,560
Speaker 1: wall to take a look at John Stewart just absolutely

1961
01:38:37,600 --> 01:38:41,440
Speaker 1: took Larry Summers to the woodshed over his terrible, terrible ideology,

1962
01:38:41,479 --> 01:38:44,599
Speaker 1: and it is glorious to behold. Now. It is hard

1963
01:38:44,600 --> 01:38:48,320
Speaker 1: to imagine a greater economic villain in modern American history

1964
01:38:48,439 --> 01:38:52,000
Speaker 1: than Larry Summers. He's like the final boss of neoliberalism.

1965
01:38:52,400 --> 01:38:55,880
Speaker 1: Basically at the scene of every great recent economic crime

1966
01:38:56,080 --> 01:38:59,160
Speaker 1: you can find Larry Summers. Start with NAFTA, which decimated

1967
01:38:59,200 --> 01:39:02,200
Speaker 1: American manufactur ke sturing permanent normal trade relations with China,

1968
01:39:02,240 --> 01:39:05,840
Speaker 1: which did even more to destimate American manufacturing, pushing shock

1969
01:39:05,920 --> 01:39:09,080
Speaker 1: doctrine on the former Soviet Union, helping to cause the

1970
01:39:09,080 --> 01:39:12,480
Speaker 1: financial crash, and then helping to craft the bank bailouance

1971
01:39:12,560 --> 01:39:15,479
Speaker 1: after the housing crash. Over the last thirty years, if

1972
01:39:15,520 --> 01:39:19,040
Speaker 1: there's a working person who is getting screwed, Larry Summers

1973
01:39:19,200 --> 01:39:22,360
Speaker 1: was probably involved in some way or another. So you

1974
01:39:22,439 --> 01:39:25,080
Speaker 1: might think, after this disastrous track record of having been

1975
01:39:25,320 --> 01:39:29,679
Speaker 1: remarkably consistently wrong in the most devastating ways, that people

1976
01:39:29,720 --> 01:39:31,640
Speaker 1: would maybe not put too much stock in what this

1977
01:39:31,680 --> 01:39:34,719
Speaker 1: guy has to say about current conditions. But boy, oh boy,

1978
01:39:34,720 --> 01:39:37,719
Speaker 1: would you be wrong, because being disastrously wrong in service

1979
01:39:37,720 --> 01:39:41,000
Speaker 1: of an elite friendly message is actually going to bolster

1980
01:39:41,200 --> 01:39:44,479
Speaker 1: your credentials in Washington. As a result, Larry's emerged as

1981
01:39:44,479 --> 01:39:47,080
Speaker 1: one of the leading advocates of the FED, crushing workers

1982
01:39:47,080 --> 01:39:50,320
Speaker 1: in service of fighting inflation whileing corporations to use the

1983
01:39:50,400 --> 01:39:53,759
Speaker 1: excuse of inflation to price gouge to their heart's content.

1984
01:39:54,160 --> 01:39:57,840
Speaker 1: And it is this morally reprehensible position that Stuart nails

1985
01:39:57,880 --> 01:40:00,559
Speaker 1: him on. Just take a listen. We'll basically happened to

1986
01:40:00,680 --> 01:40:04,080
Speaker 1: us as we had massive stimulus and an economy that

1987
01:40:04,080 --> 01:40:07,439
Speaker 1: could only produce so much. We had huge levels of demand,

1988
01:40:07,479 --> 01:40:10,439
Speaker 1: and those huge levels of demand kept pushing up prices

1989
01:40:10,479 --> 01:40:13,640
Speaker 1: and pushing up wages. But ultimately it was you put

1990
01:40:13,680 --> 01:40:16,320
Speaker 1: too much water in the bathtub. The bathtub overflows. You

1991
01:40:16,360 --> 01:40:19,960
Speaker 1: put too much demand into the economy, and you get

1992
01:40:20,040 --> 01:40:23,439
Speaker 1: high and rising prices. But the San Francisco feed says

1993
01:40:23,640 --> 01:40:27,120
Speaker 1: that is demand is maybe thirty to thirty five percent

1994
01:40:27,200 --> 01:40:29,680
Speaker 1: of the inflation. Wages are really around twenty percent of

1995
01:40:29,680 --> 01:40:32,680
Speaker 1: the inflation. There's a huge corporate profit aspect to it,

1996
01:40:32,760 --> 01:40:34,760
Speaker 1: there's a huge supply chain aspect to it, but our

1997
01:40:34,800 --> 01:40:37,920
Speaker 1: method for controlling it seems really much more focused on

1998
01:40:38,680 --> 01:40:42,559
Speaker 1: wages and employment. There's certain sicknesses you can have where

1999
01:40:42,600 --> 01:40:46,040
Speaker 1: there's a drug and has side effects and everybody hates

2000
01:40:46,080 --> 01:40:48,680
Speaker 1: the side effects, and no doctor wants their patient to

2001
01:40:48,720 --> 01:40:51,639
Speaker 1: suffer the side effects. But if you don't address the sickness,

2002
01:40:52,040 --> 01:40:54,160
Speaker 1: you're going to have a bigger problem down the road.

2003
01:40:54,320 --> 01:40:56,679
Speaker 1: But the stock market assets have gone up one hundred

2004
01:40:56,680 --> 01:41:00,639
Speaker 1: and fifty percent, ceopay has gone up fifteen hundred percent. Workers'

2005
01:41:00,640 --> 01:41:03,320
Speaker 1: wages haven't gone up at all. I think you're misdiagnosing

2006
01:41:03,400 --> 01:41:06,680
Speaker 1: the sickness. Take your medicine people now. Sometimes John will

2007
01:41:06,680 --> 01:41:08,479
Speaker 1: play a rube in these interviews and do a kind

2008
01:41:08,479 --> 01:41:10,840
Speaker 1: of like I'm just a regular guy asking questions to stick.

2009
01:41:11,120 --> 01:41:12,840
Speaker 1: But here he really drops the act and he comes

2010
01:41:12,880 --> 01:41:15,120
Speaker 1: with the receipts, even as Summer's condescends to him with

2011
01:41:15,200 --> 01:41:18,360
Speaker 1: his bis analogies about the bathtub and about taking our medicine.

2012
01:41:18,520 --> 01:41:21,120
Speaker 1: Take a look at this chart from the Economic Policy Institute,

2013
01:41:21,120 --> 01:41:23,800
Speaker 1: which breaks down the factors that have in fact contributed

2014
01:41:23,800 --> 01:41:27,679
Speaker 1: to inflation. As John correctly notes, while unemployment is low,

2015
01:41:27,920 --> 01:41:30,400
Speaker 1: most of the workforce has actually seen a pay cut

2016
01:41:30,560 --> 01:41:33,000
Speaker 1: due to inflation. Here you can see that in past

2017
01:41:33,080 --> 01:41:37,200
Speaker 1: inflationary periods, wages were in fact the largest driving force

2018
01:41:37,240 --> 01:41:39,800
Speaker 1: of those price increases. That's the light blue bars that

2019
01:41:39,840 --> 01:41:42,360
Speaker 1: you see in this chart. That is not even close

2020
01:41:42,360 --> 01:41:45,759
Speaker 1: to the case right now. Corporate profits ie price gouging

2021
01:41:45,840 --> 01:41:50,080
Speaker 1: accounts for about fifty four percent of price rises. Non

2022
01:41:50,200 --> 01:41:53,960
Speaker 1: labor inputs ie supply chain issues account for about thirty

2023
01:41:53,960 --> 01:41:58,559
Speaker 1: eight percent. Labor cost a mere eight percent. So all

2024
01:41:58,600 --> 01:42:01,560
Speaker 1: this crap about workers having it too good it's garbage.

2025
01:42:01,680 --> 01:42:04,800
Speaker 1: Yet the primary mechanism we're using to fight inflation is

2026
01:42:04,800 --> 01:42:07,599
Speaker 1: a tool that is only able to impact that roughly

2027
01:42:07,640 --> 01:42:10,439
Speaker 1: eight percent of the issue which comes from labor costs,

2028
01:42:10,479 --> 01:42:13,599
Speaker 1: and actually it could make the supply chain issues get worse.

2029
01:42:13,880 --> 01:42:16,320
Speaker 1: So it is no wonder that thus far, crushing labor

2030
01:42:16,320 --> 01:42:20,160
Speaker 1: alone has not checked inflation, since wages only account for

2031
01:42:20,240 --> 01:42:23,120
Speaker 1: a tiny fraction of what is actually going on here.

2032
01:42:23,680 --> 01:42:26,640
Speaker 1: Another great part of this interview, Larry Summers asserts that

2033
01:42:26,680 --> 01:42:30,240
Speaker 1: this corporate profiteering isn't really price gouging, it's just the

2034
01:42:30,240 --> 01:42:33,559
Speaker 1: free market work in its magic. John checkmates him on

2035
01:42:33,600 --> 01:42:36,599
Speaker 1: this one too. Take a listen. The tools that we have, though,

2036
01:42:36,680 --> 01:42:40,240
Speaker 1: are basically saying to somebody, everyone's paying more for gas

2037
01:42:40,360 --> 01:42:42,280
Speaker 1: and groceries, and that's really hard. So here's what we're

2038
01:42:42,320 --> 01:42:44,559
Speaker 1: going to do. We're going to throw ten million of

2039
01:42:44,600 --> 01:42:46,680
Speaker 1: them out of work so that we all don't have

2040
01:42:46,720 --> 01:42:50,000
Speaker 1: to share that burden. Why aren't we attacking corporate profit

2041
01:42:50,040 --> 01:42:52,160
Speaker 1: in any way? Because that's been estimated to be thirty

2042
01:42:52,200 --> 01:42:55,439
Speaker 1: percent of inflation? Isn't it going to be on Apple TV? Correct?

2043
01:42:55,520 --> 01:42:58,519
Speaker 1: And I think Apple TV is worth about five times

2044
01:42:58,560 --> 01:43:03,200
Speaker 1: as much as exon think apples price. Since the stimulus began,

2045
01:43:03,640 --> 01:43:07,599
Speaker 1: Apple's value has gone up by about one point two

2046
01:43:08,120 --> 01:43:13,320
Speaker 1: trillion dollars. That's four thousand dollars for every American, just

2047
01:43:13,520 --> 01:43:17,000
Speaker 1: an increase in the value of apples. It just made

2048
01:43:17,040 --> 01:43:18,640
Speaker 1: my point for me. Do you feel that Apple is

2049
01:43:18,680 --> 01:43:22,559
Speaker 1: somehow gouging or doing something wrong? Yes, of course, and

2050
01:43:22,640 --> 01:43:25,000
Speaker 1: Exxon is and most let's talk about app Let's talk

2051
01:43:25,040 --> 01:43:29,400
Speaker 1: about Apple. Do you think, okay, Apple should just sell

2052
01:43:29,600 --> 01:43:31,800
Speaker 1: phones for less and not have enough phones? What would

2053
01:43:31,800 --> 01:43:33,720
Speaker 1: you have, Apple? What would you have Apple? Do you're

2054
01:43:33,760 --> 01:43:37,120
Speaker 1: saying to me, John? Market forces? Are market forces? And

2055
01:43:37,160 --> 01:43:40,680
Speaker 1: if demand goes up? Are you suggesting, young man, that

2056
01:43:40,760 --> 01:43:43,360
Speaker 1: apples should charge less than they could charge? Let me

2057
01:43:43,400 --> 01:43:45,960
Speaker 1: flip that on you. When there's a tightness in the

2058
01:43:46,040 --> 01:43:49,360
Speaker 1: labor market. What you're saying is the workers shouldn't do

2059
01:43:49,439 --> 01:43:52,840
Speaker 1: the same that the workers just following the same capitalistic

2060
01:43:52,880 --> 01:43:55,679
Speaker 1: principles that allow Apple to charge more for their phones,

2061
01:43:55,960 --> 01:44:00,160
Speaker 1: shouldn't charge more because wage inflation is driving inflation. What

2062
01:44:00,200 --> 01:44:02,880
Speaker 1: I'm saying, that's exactly what you're sacked. Now. The reason

2063
01:44:02,960 --> 01:44:06,000
Speaker 1: that moment is so perfect among others is because John

2064
01:44:06,080 --> 01:44:09,800
Speaker 1: exposes how one sided Larry's economic worldview is when it

2065
01:44:09,800 --> 01:44:13,360
Speaker 1: comes to corporations using the excuse of inflation to price gouge,

2066
01:44:13,760 --> 01:44:16,040
Speaker 1: He's all for it. In fact, he's shocked at the

2067
01:44:16,120 --> 01:44:19,080
Speaker 1: idea anyone would oppose such a thing. But when it

2068
01:44:19,120 --> 01:44:21,439
Speaker 1: comes to some small slice of the workforce getting a

2069
01:44:21,479 --> 01:44:23,519
Speaker 1: higher wage because of a tight labor market, well this

2070
01:44:23,640 --> 01:44:25,800
Speaker 1: must be stopped and we must use the blunt force

2071
01:44:25,840 --> 01:44:28,720
Speaker 1: instrument of the FED to make sure it happens. Now.

2072
01:44:28,720 --> 01:44:31,040
Speaker 1: We can see this contradiction in Larry's current stance on

2073
01:44:31,080 --> 01:44:33,960
Speaker 1: the Silicon Valley bailout as well. He's all free market,

2074
01:44:34,120 --> 01:44:36,960
Speaker 1: rah rah, what it means record breaking profits, But literally

2075
01:44:37,040 --> 01:44:39,920
Speaker 1: within an hour of svb's collapse, he was out calling

2076
01:44:39,920 --> 01:44:42,439
Speaker 1: for a very non free market bailout to protect the

2077
01:44:42,479 --> 01:44:45,680
Speaker 1: well healed vcs and their portfolio companies. Even went so

2078
01:44:45,800 --> 01:44:49,120
Speaker 1: far as to say, now's not the time for discussions

2079
01:44:49,120 --> 01:44:51,760
Speaker 1: of moral hazard. No, of course not, even though the

2080
01:44:51,800 --> 01:44:55,040
Speaker 1: government response is now greenlit reckless behavior from the entire

2081
01:44:55,120 --> 01:44:57,759
Speaker 1: banking sector with the promise that the US tax payer

2082
01:44:57,920 --> 01:45:00,799
Speaker 1: will backstop the risk and clean it up. No, now's

2083
01:45:00,880 --> 01:45:03,679
Speaker 1: not the time to talk about that moral hazard. Shocked

2084
01:45:03,680 --> 01:45:05,360
Speaker 1: to Learning had quite a different view when it came

2085
01:45:05,400 --> 01:45:08,519
Speaker 1: to helping students deal with their crushing debt burden. Larry

2086
01:45:08,520 --> 01:45:12,439
Speaker 1: Summers is the living, breathing embodiment socialism for the rich,

2087
01:45:12,640 --> 01:45:16,120
Speaker 1: rugged individualism for the poor. Right now, at this very moment,

2088
01:45:16,320 --> 01:45:19,320
Speaker 1: he is both at this time in favor of FED

2089
01:45:19,640 --> 01:45:23,560
Speaker 1: loosening to help bankers and wealthy depositors and FED tightening

2090
01:45:23,840 --> 01:45:27,800
Speaker 1: to hurt working people. Does it get any clearer than that?

2091
01:45:28,240 --> 01:45:31,360
Speaker 1: He is also the living, breathing embodiment of how the

2092
01:45:31,400 --> 01:45:34,720
Speaker 1: people with the most catastrophic records get treated as the

2093
01:45:34,800 --> 01:45:38,479
Speaker 1: most serious people in Washington. Yesterday, as we've noted in

2094
01:45:38,520 --> 01:45:41,040
Speaker 1: the show, was twenty years since the Iraq War invasion.

2095
01:45:41,640 --> 01:45:44,160
Speaker 1: Just take a look at where all the Iraq War

2096
01:45:44,240 --> 01:45:47,960
Speaker 1: fraudsters are now doing better than ever. As long as

2097
01:45:48,040 --> 01:45:50,839
Speaker 1: your disasters and lives are in service of the regime,

2098
01:45:51,120 --> 01:45:53,760
Speaker 1: you will be celebrated. You'll be showered with power and

2099
01:45:53,800 --> 01:45:56,880
Speaker 1: with riches. Kudos to John Stewart for at least giving

2100
01:45:56,960 --> 01:46:00,439
Speaker 1: us the satisfaction of watching this man's squirm, because trust me,

2101
01:46:00,640 --> 01:46:04,000
Speaker 1: Larry Summers is not finished trying to ruin your life,

2102
01:46:04,360 --> 01:46:07,720
Speaker 1: and like so many before him, Larry Summers dramatically And

2103
01:46:07,760 --> 01:46:10,400
Speaker 1: if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue,

2104
01:46:10,400 --> 01:46:16,840
Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. All right, guys,

2105
01:46:16,920 --> 01:46:19,479
Speaker 1: thank you so much for watching today. As we said

2106
01:46:19,479 --> 01:46:21,000
Speaker 1: at the top of the show, if you want to

2107
01:46:21,080 --> 01:46:24,680
Speaker 1: have the Spotify video, go to Breakingpoints dot com and

2108
01:46:24,680 --> 01:46:26,880
Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber. There you go. That's all you

2109
01:46:26,880 --> 01:46:27,960
Speaker 1: need to know. We'll see you tomorrow.