WEBVTT - Week 5 NFL Bets: Nick’s 5 Picks 0:00:01.520 --> 0:00:04.280 This episode is brought to you by Love Herts. Keith 0:00:04.320 --> 0:00:07.240 week Kwan has had quite a career, from childhood roles 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.560 in Indiana, Jones and the Temple of Doom and The 0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:13.200 Goonies to a recent Academy Award win for Everything, Everywhere, 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:16.000 All at Once. But now Keith finally stars as a 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:19.279 leading man in the film Love Hurts. Love Hurts is 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.000 a perfect date night movie with its mix of over 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:25.319 the top action comedy and a ton of heart. Love 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:27.560 Hurts Only at theaters February seventh. 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.599 This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:37.000 inspiring true story about Anthony Roebliss, who defined every expectation 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.959 to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:43.560 original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg, 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:46.800 evoking the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:50.280 thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:53.840 including Jerrel Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheadle, Michael Pania, and 0:00:53.880 --> 0:01:09.800 Bobby Knavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:14.680 Welcome in What's Right? Nick Wright. Episode seventy nine of 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:19.280 our YouTube show and podcast like Rates Review, subscribe to 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:22.760 all those things. It is our Week five NFL gambling show. 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:25.880 The way the Gambling Show works is we give you 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:29.119 five picks. We put the rest of the eleven games 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:32.839 into three different categories, perfectly priced, stay aways, and be carefuls. 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:34.920 Then at the end of the show, we give you 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:37.400 a lock. More on that in a moment we see 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:40.320 if there's any exotics, any teasers, any parlay's we want 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:43.040 to do. I give you a survivor pick, which has 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:46.319 been right now worth the cost of admission on this 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:50.360 show Survivor pools. Through four weeks, the majority of Survivor 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:53.640 pools in America have lost more than eighty percent of 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:57.120 their injuries. We are not only four for four, but 0:01:57.320 --> 0:01:59.800 none of our four survivors have even had a real 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.880 wet involved. They've been perfect, So that's been good. And 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:05.880 Demons tries to get me to make a bet. I 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:08.080 feel like I made a bet with you last week 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:11.160 because I owed you fifty dollars and we agreed double 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:15.520 or nothing on something and I think you lost. Mm hmm. 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:17.359 Are you talking about the Rams game? 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:20.200 No, I think it was the Dolphins game. I think 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:23.000 it was the old Dolphins Bengals. We went double or 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:24.160 nothing on the fifty bucks. 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:26.120 I thought it was double or nothing for all of 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:27.560 the reverse of your picks. 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:30.440 Well you would have lost that too, because I had 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:33.400 a winning week last week. Let's show it America. Okay, 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:37.280 So we went three and two last week after three 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:41.600 straight two and three weeks, but once again we lost 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:45.200 our right move the lock of the week. So I 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:48.520 would like to discuss those picks briefly and we'll get 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.600 to this week's picks. First of all, what a sharp 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:55.359 side for me with Minnesota. This is where we talk 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:58.920 line value. We got Minnesota because these lines locked for 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:02.320 us when the Fox bet lines whatever they are, when 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:05.200 the super Contest locks on Wednesday evening, because we do 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:08.799 this on Thursday morning, which sometimes screws us. Sometimes we 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:10.840 don't have all the information, but that's how we do it. 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:13.560 And I said I loved Minnesota laying less than a 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:16.359 field goal in that game in London. Then what happened 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:19.160 day of the game. Oh my god, Jamis is out, 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:22.120 Kamara's out, Michael Thomas is out. When all the way 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.400 to Minnesota minus four or four and a half, Minnesota 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:28.400 one by three. So if you got it when we 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:32.440 said it, you won. Vegas covered easily, the Chiefs covered 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:36.640 by a million. My love affair with betting games involving 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:39.720 the Chicago Bears must end. It will end. This week 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:42.080 the Bears did not cover. And then there's the lock. 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:44.520 So I would like to tell you how the locks 0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:47.720 have gone for us this year. Week one, we had 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:53.520 Baltimore covered easily. Week two we had Baltimore, they were 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:57.320 up twenty one in the fourth quarter. We were laying 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:01.600 three and a half. They did not win. Week three 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:06.080 we had San Francisco laying a point and a half. 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:13.040 Despite Jimmy Garoppolo's self safetying, we still were in fine shape. 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:17.000 Then the Broncos go down and score. The Niners had 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:20.719 the ball two more times. Down one, we're laying one 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:22.800 and a half. We just need a field goal. We 0:04:22.920 --> 0:04:28.400 cover back to back turnovers. And then last week Jacksonville 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:32.720 is getting six and a half. It's fourteen to nothing 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.200 before Demons got back from his night out at Pianos, 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:40.080 and all of a sudden, we lose that game outright, 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:42.760 we lose the game. They lose by eight points. So 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:46.680 the reason I say that is this our process has 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:50.320 been sound on the locks. Our process has been sound 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:53.839 on these picks. We have made twenty picks so far 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:57.680 this year. I've done the I've crunched the numbers, if 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:03.480 you will. Eight of them win or law Eight of 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:10.120 them have been fifty to fifty games. Okay, so six 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:14.320 of them we have been on the right side of 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:18.880 by a mile, and the other six we have had 0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:26.400 five very unlucky go against us and only one very 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:29.479 lucky go our way. That was the Arizona game from 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:33.200 a few weeks ago. So point is, we're not going 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:36.320 to change our process here, with the exception of we're 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:39.280 not gonna let the Bears ruin our record anymore. We're 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:42.360 not spilling to change our process. You tried to talk 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:44.360 me out of the Bears thing last week. I will 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:47.000 give you credit on that DEMANDE also gave us three 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:50.200 picks last week. I think we're gonna discuss those later 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:53.920 in the show. But right now, let's get to our 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:57.279 picks for the week. We're starting with the Prince that 0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:02.679 was promised, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars laying seven 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.159 against the Houston Texans. 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:08.280 I don't typically believe in Jacksonville. 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:12.480 Yeah, yeah, that's why we like it. It's a good 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:17.440 catch by you. You as Jacksonville right now has been 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:21.240 a top ten defense and a top ten offense. Jacksonville 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.640 should be three to one, not because they should have 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.159 won the Philly game, but they should have won Week one. 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:30.800 They have also shown an ability to blow people out. 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.799 They blew out the Chargers and they blew out the Colts. 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:38.160 I like what they're doing on both sides of the ball. 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:43.760 Houston is the only win list team. Houston is just 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:45.680 going to try to run the ball. Run the ball. 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:51.520 Davis Mills has you know, reversed back to the regressed, 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:54.520 pardon me, back to the mean. As far as turnovers, 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:57.880 I expect this to be a game that Jacksonville jumps 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:01.280 out early like they did against Philadelphia, does not make 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.440 the same mistakes they made against Philadelphia. Trevor's not gonna 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:06.680 have five turnovers. He's not gonna have the most fumbles 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:08.880 of any player lost fumbles of any player in the 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:10.320 last twenty plus years. 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:12.960 As long as it's not Rady, Well, you. 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:16.200 Know that's a good point. Let's check the old weather forecast. 0:07:16.520 --> 0:07:19.960 This is also one of the issues potentially with betting 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:22.360 these games on a Thursday, You're not gonna get the 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:26.560 most precise weather forecast. But his game is in Jacksonville, Florida. 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:29.360 It's certainly not gonna be the torrential downpour that we 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:33.840 had to deal with. And guess what on Sunday Sonny high 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:38.160 of eighty three, low of sixty four, no chance of precipitation. 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:43.400 That's a recipe for Jacksonville blowing out the Houston Texans. 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:49.920 We will lay the seven points. Next game, Seattle catching 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:53.600 five and a half against New Orleans. Now, this is 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:58.280 another one where I, because I have promised to you guys, 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:00.800 I will bet all of these games. Obviously will bet 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:04.400 all of these games. I'm gonna recommend you guys just 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:08.800 keep your eye on the injury report for both teams, 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:11.920 but particularly what it really matters for is the Saints 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:16.680 because at last check, we don't know is jamis playing. 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:21.000 We do expect Alvin Kamara to be playing. Michael Thomas 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:23.119 At this point, people need to stop backing like Michael 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:25.800 Thomas some big difference. Finger right, Thomas, unbelievable player three 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:28.080 years ago. Then you heard his ankle two years ago 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:30.480 was barely you know, was on and off the field 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:33.320 that year last year was missed the entire year with 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:36.280 that same ankle injury. This year came back Week one. 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:40.040 He's been on and off since then. Okay, there is 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:44.040 no reason New Orleans should be favored by more than 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:48.400 four points against anyone. Seattle, on the other hand, has 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:53.240 had a frisky offense. Very bad defense, but a frisky offense. 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.839 There's back door cover opportunity. I think Seattle could win 0:08:56.880 --> 0:09:00.679 the game outright. Andy Dalton potentially is the starter, even 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:04.439 if he's not. Jamis has not exactly bathed himself in 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:08.200 glories so far this year. Dennis Allen has one of 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:11.960 the five worst records of any NFL head coach in 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:15.440 the last seventy years of football for a coach that's 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:18.640 coached as many games as him Seattle. I would have 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:21.960 when we were doing this you this Sunday. We didn't 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:24.439 do it because the Chiefs game was on, but Demonsey 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:26.680 and I like to do a Bill Simmons cousin south 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:31.040 thing of guessing the lines. I guessed it was New 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:34.760 Orleans minus two and a half. I'm never off by 0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:37.440 three points on that. I'm not saying I always picked 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:39.640 the right side of it, but I'm usually pretty good 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:43.400 about guessing where Vegas is gonna set it. I don't 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:49.199 understand the respect New Orleans is getting when New Orleans 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:52.920 very very easily could be an zero to four football team. 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:55.040 Let me remind you about what New orleans Is year 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:58.800 has been like so far, because it's actually gonna come 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.160 into play in a later pick. But New Orleans so 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:04.720 far this season. Week one, they're down sixteen to Atlanta 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:07.600 in the fourth quarter, furious comeback they win by a point. 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:10.520 Week two, they can't move the ball at all, Tampa 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:13.840 dominates them. Week three they lose to the hapless Panthers. 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:17.840 And last week in London they lose to Minnesota despite 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:22.280 Minnesota shooting itself in the foot repeatedly, and they got 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:24.720 a flyback from London. They didn't take the bye after 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:28.360 the international trip. All those reasons. I like Seattle plus 0:10:28.360 --> 0:10:28.840 the five and a. 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:30.160 Half and Gino Smith. 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:31.600 What about him? 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:33.720 Are you buying into him being a top quarterback. 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:37.560 I'm not buying into him being a top quarterback. But 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:41.079 am I buying into him not being awful? Yeah, he 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:43.400 wasn't awful when he filled in for us last year. 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:47.520 This year he's actually been excellent. Now that will regress somewhat, 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:49.839 and New Orleans has a good defense, but five and 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.320 a half's too much. We like Seattle plus the five 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:58.480 and a half. Speaking of Atlanta, next pick Atlanta catching 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:04.000 eight in the hook eight and a half at Tampa. Okay, 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:06.960 so let's talk about the Atlanta Falcons for a moment. 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:09.920 A team that some people thought was gonna be the 0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:11.280 worst team in football this year. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.920 And I can act like Atlanta what They're not far off? 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:19.440 Well, except for this Week one Atlanta. We just mentioned 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.720 it up sixteen and the fourth they blew it. Week 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:25.400 two Atlanta, and this is why we like the plus 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:29.960 eight and a half. Week two Atlanta is down thirty 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:34.720 one to ten with nine minutes left. Okay, that game 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:40.280 is thirty one twenty seven in the fourth quarter, and 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:44.840 you know what happens. All of a sudden, Jared Goff 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:48.880 and Jared Goff uh. Marcus Mariota is thrown into the 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:52.240 end zone and Jalen Ramsey has to moss. I think 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:56.120 it's Drake London to save the game. But a furious comeback. 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.480 They could have won. They shouldn't have won, but they 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.520 could have won. But furious comeback to cover Week two 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:07.360 Atlanta they go to Seattle all the way furthest trip 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:09.240 in the one of the furthest trips in the NFL 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:14.080 scheduled this season. Atlanta, Georgia to Seattle, Washington. They win 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.319 the game out right twenty three to twenty or twenty 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.680 seven to twenty three, pardon me. And Week four Atlanta 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:23.679 a game that I told you all was a trap. 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:26.360 I told you to stay away with Cleveland minus one 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:28.440 and a half, and Demonsey's watching the game with me. 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:31.160 Cleveland takes a lead in the fourth quarter. He's like, oh, 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.320 you said this was a trap. What does Atlanta do? 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:36.480 Boom boom, back to backfield goal drives. They win the 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.080 game out right twenty three to twenty against a frisky 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:44.920 Cleveland team. Now you're giving me more than a touchdown. Furthermore, 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:48.719 I don't want to get into Tom Brady's personal life. 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:49.840 It's been a rough week. 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:50.720 Gee. 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:55.200 He's also banged up. Yeah, the Chiefs hurt him, got 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:58.960 his shoulder. His finger was already banged up. I'm not 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:03.880 picking Atlanta to win this game, but I do think 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:07.400 that if Tampa has a lead late, they are going 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.559 to grind the clock and run the ball and not 0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:15.079 put Brady in Jeopardy that screams Atlanta. Furthermore, Atlanta has 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:18.680 shown because Arthur Smith, their coach, has talked all this trash, 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:21.839 there are no give up team. So even if they're 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.600 getting their teeth kicked in, they are going to do 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:28.400 their damnedest to stay in the football game. Or you 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:32.320 could be down they've down fifteen with five minutes left 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.760 and cover this game. I love the eight and a half, 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:37.000 by the way, I love it that extra half point. 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:43.079 It feels good. Situation where they're down eleven with ninety 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:46.000 seconds left and they do the we're gonna kick the 0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:48.120 field goal and then go on sidekick. All of a 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:53.559 sudden you're covering again. Additionally, the Chiefs just ran the 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:55.840 ball one hundred and eighty five yards on this Tampa 0:13:55.920 --> 0:14:00.680 defense that previously you couldn't run the ball. Lanta's running 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:02.959 this weird college offense. I think they're going to run 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:05.000 the ball. I think both teams are going to run 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.120 the ball, which means it will be a fast game, 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:09.760 lower scoring game. You're giving me eight and a half 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:10.400 points like. 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:13.400 Plus the eight, Atlanta's four and against the spread so far. 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:16.079 So here's the thing I did not know that I 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:17.120 saw it in your notes. 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:19.680 Might be too late to jump on that bandwagon, you know. 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:22.480 I don't love that. Yeah, I'll tell you that much. 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:24.760 I don't love the four and oh against the spread. 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:30.720 It is scary it. I saw that, and it gave 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:35.400 me a bit of pause. But we're gonna disregard that, 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.200 and we're gonna plow ahead with Atlanta plus the eight 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:44.040 and a half. All right, next line, Dallas plus five 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:49.720 and a half at the Rams. Someone make a case 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.360 to me that the Rams are a great team that 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:57.800 doesn't involve last year's Super Bowl. It can't be made. 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:02.920 Someone make a case to me that Matt Stafford looks 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.480 like a top flight quarterback that does not involve last 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:10.080 year's Super Bowl and Super Bowl run. It cannot be made. 0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:14.040 The Rams so far this year got their teeth kicked 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.920 in by Buffalo. Fine, we just told you about the 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:20.800 Atlanta game. Now, they dominated that game and then the 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.000 fourth quarter tried to give it away, so that no, 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:26.200 not you know, no step on your throat there. They 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:33.080 then escape against a miserable Cardinals team and get totally 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:37.760 I mean dominated by San Francisco. Okay, so let's talk 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:41.640 about that for a moment. That game was on Monday night, 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.240 so the Rams are on a short week. That's interesting. 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:51.160 Their offensive line is in shambles. The Cowboys have an 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.680 argument that they have the best pass rushing duo in 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:57.000 the whole league in Michael Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.480 Cowboys also have shown you they're going to throw the 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.400 ball on first down and then run the ball. Just 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.600 try not to turn the ball over. Conservative game that 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:12.960 also lends you to side of the underdog. Dallas has 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.560 been better than I gave them credit for being able 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:17.400 to be, particularly after Dack's injury. 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:20.160 But don't you think like that time might be coming 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:22.080 up for Cooper Rush to have a slip up game. 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:23.960 I do too many games in a row like we 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:24.280 saw it. 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:26.720 So I actually agree with that, and I think that 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:28.920 could happen this week. We could have the three interception 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:33.080 Cooper Rush game. Right I don't think the Rams have 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:39.040 enough firepower to blow anybody out right now. I just don't. 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:43.280 And I think that Stafford is going to be under 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:46.480 such dress. It's going to be all quick passing game stuff. 0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:49.760 The Cowboys, if they're smart and they have a smart defense, 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:53.360 will double Cooper Cup throughout. I just think this should 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.480 be Rams by three, and the Rams are getting an 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.400 extra two and a half thanks being Super Bowl champs, 0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:02.800 and that matters nothing to me at this point. Dallas 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.359 plus I was thinking about Dallas at plus four and 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:07.479 a half, which is I think where it opened, Dallas 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:09.320 plus five and a half. I like, even though I 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:11.879 haven't been big on the Cowboys, I like Dallas catching 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:14.600 the five and a half points. The final pick we 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:19.600 are giving out is Kansaity minus seven against the Raiders. Oh, Nick, 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:23.439 you always picked the Chiefs false. Did not pick the 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.800 Chiefs in week one and they covered. Did not pick 0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:29.919 the Chiefs in week two and they covered. Did not 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:32.760 pick the Chiefs in week three. I had them in 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:35.800 a teaser. Oh I did not pick them against the 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:38.600 spread and they did not cover and they lost. Out Right. 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:41.760 I did pick the Chiefs last week, picked them on 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:45.800 this show lang one, and then I bet them a little. 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:51.040 I don't call it irresponsibly, but remember I told you 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.720 when you're gambling, you like to decide what your unit 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:57.240 size is. Yeah, and then you know, have that be 0:17:57.320 --> 0:17:59.400 your typical bet. If you unit size one hundred bucks. 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:02.440 Occasionally you do a half or a three quarter unit 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.440 bet fifty or seventy five. Occasionally, if you really like something, 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:08.119 you'll do a one and a half unit bet. We 0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:10.639 don't need to talk about what my average bet size is. 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:13.080 But we went with the old four unit bet on 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:18.199 Manas City the night before my birthday. Here's why. In 0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:21.600 that game, first time in thirty eight games, Patrick Mahomes 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:23.920 was an underdog. You're not Gonnam. I might not get 0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:25.879 that opportunity bet on him as a underdog again for 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:29.840 three years. I had to take advantage of it. The 0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:35.960 Chiefs kicked the Raiders ass except for two years ago 0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:39.360 where they played two close games. They play the Raiders 0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:44.720 and they kick their teeth in. The Raiders also got 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:49.719 their win, so that the desperation a little gone. The Chiefs, 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:54.080 on the other hand, understand because they I think they 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:57.560 still have the added edge of having given that game 0:18:57.600 --> 0:19:02.640 away against the Colts. Yea at home. It's on Monday night. 0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:07.879 Arrowhead is going to be absolutely out of its mind. 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:12.280 I think that right now, teams watched what the Chiefs 0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:17.000 did against Tampa recognize the Chiefs are willing to just 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:19.440 run the ball, run the ball. They're not going to 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:21.919 be able to play in that two high shell the 0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:25.240 whole game. And because of that Cat, I think Mahomes 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:28.320 is going to have more opportunities. The only way any 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.800 team has ever slowed down Mahomes his entire career is 0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:35.359 get constant pressure on the quarterback. The Raiders have one 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:38.359 of the worst pass rushes in the league. Listen, I 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:40.840 like what the Raiders are able to do on offense. 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:43.280 I think DeVante Adams is gonna end up being a 0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:45.440 great player for them. I think you'll have a big game. 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:48.280 I still like the Chiefs. I feel like this game 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:51.240 should be Kansaity minus nine and a half. It's Kansidy 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:52.439 minus seven. I like it. 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:54.240 You said you have the opportunity to bet on the 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:56.680 Chiefs or bet on Patrick Mahomes being an underdogar that 0:19:56.720 --> 0:19:58.600 won't happen for a while. You don't think that when 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:00.440 they play the Bills coming up here, so that they'll 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:01.359 be underdogs. 0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:07.159 That game's in Kansas City, right, If that game's in 0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:12.520 Kansas City, the answer is absolutely, unequivocally no, I don't 0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:16.679 think they'll be underdogs. Now, what I will say is, 0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:19.520 is there a concern, a bit of a concern the 0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:23.400 Chiefs could be in look ahead mode to the Bills game, 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:25.720 if the Bucks game in the Bills game, Raiders trap 0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:28.760 game in the middle, maybe, except for the fact the 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:32.600 Raiders have beaten the Chiefs once in Patrick Mahomes's career 0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:36.000 and those sons of bitches did laps around the stadium 0:20:36.080 --> 0:20:38.520 celebrating it. And I don't think the Chiefs are over 0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:42.639 that part of it. Okay, So Kansas City minus seven 0:20:42.920 --> 0:20:45.639 should be nine and a half. So our five picks 0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:50.119 are Jacksonville minus seven, Seattle plus five and a half, 0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:53.560 Atlanta plus eight and a half, Dallas plus five and 0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:56.640 a half in Kansas City minus seven. All right, We'll 0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:59.240 go through the other eleven games on the slate quickly 0:20:59.320 --> 0:21:03.120 coming up next, And there is never the one thing. 0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:07.240 While our record's been mediocre, we have been spot on 0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:10.840 on the be careful category. We've prevented people from making 0:21:10.920 --> 0:21:16.120 bets they shouldn't. There are four road favorites this week 0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:18.920 that we beg you to be careful on. We will 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:21.000 discuss all of those and the rest of the slate 0:21:21.080 --> 0:21:24.840 before we get to our official lock Exotics survivor all 0:21:24.880 --> 0:21:28.280 that coming up next. What's right? Nick right? NFL gamelin 0:21:28.320 --> 0:21:29.160 Show Week five. 0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:37.160 If your football team had one option in their playbook, 0:21:37.359 --> 0:21:40.199 the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be 0:21:40.200 --> 0:21:43.800 said for your investments. Cebo index options like SPX and 0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:47.320 xsp can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement 0:21:47.440 --> 0:21:50.199 and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:53.520 dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot Com. 0:21:53.640 --> 0:21:57.320 Cebo life is better with options, Your investments. 0:21:56.800 --> 0:21:57.480 Could be too. 0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:00.520 There are risks associated with Cibo company product review. The 0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:04.359 disclosures and disclaimers at cbo dot com slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:07.360 Welcome back in What's Right, Nick Right, Episode seventy nine, 0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:09.600 Week five NFL Gambling Show. We just gave you our 0:22:09.640 --> 0:22:12.119 five picks. We'll get to the lock and all the 0:22:12.160 --> 0:22:14.720 other fun stuff later, but there are eleven other games 0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:17.160 we need to discuss. We put them into three categories. 0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:20.600 Stay away, be careful and perfectly priced. First on the 0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:22.919 stay away line, and then do we I think we 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.159 show you all of these here? Yeah, so here are 0:22:25.320 --> 0:22:29.560 four stayaways. We're going to start with Indy at Denver. 0:22:30.040 --> 0:22:33.000 Indy is getting three and a half. This is a 0:22:33.160 --> 0:22:37.600 vintage stay Away for the following reasons. One is no 0:22:37.800 --> 0:22:42.679 Jonathan Taylor, but also massive injury questions on both sides 0:22:42.720 --> 0:22:45.840 of the ball, and it's a Thursday night game, so 0:22:45.880 --> 0:22:48.760 people will already have known what happens here. I'm not 0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:52.280 comfortable laying three and a half points with Denver right 0:22:52.320 --> 0:22:56.160