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Speaker 3: Welcome in What's Right? Nick Wright. Episode seventy nine of
Speaker 3: our YouTube show and podcast like Rates Review, subscribe to
Speaker 3: all those things. It is our Week five NFL gambling show.
Speaker 3: The way the Gambling Show works is we give you
Speaker 3: five picks. We put the rest of the eleven games
Speaker 3: into three different categories, perfectly priced, stay aways, and be carefuls.
Speaker 3: Then at the end of the show, we give you
Speaker 3: a lock. More on that in a moment we see
Speaker 3: if there's any exotics, any teasers, any parlay's we want
Speaker 3: to do. I give you a survivor pick, which has
Speaker 3: been right now worth the cost of admission on this
Speaker 3: show Survivor pools. Through four weeks, the majority of Survivor
Speaker 3: pools in America have lost more than eighty percent of
Speaker 3: their injuries. We are not only four for four, but
Speaker 3: none of our four survivors have even had a real
Speaker 3: wet involved. They've been perfect, So that's been good. And
Speaker 3: Demons tries to get me to make a bet. I
Speaker 3: feel like I made a bet with you last week
Speaker 3: because I owed you fifty dollars and we agreed double
Speaker 3: or nothing on something and I think you lost. Mm hmm.
Speaker 4: Are you talking about the Rams game?
Speaker 3: No, I think it was the Dolphins game. I think
Speaker 3: it was the old Dolphins Bengals. We went double or
Speaker 3: nothing on the fifty bucks.
Speaker 5: I thought it was double or nothing for all of
Speaker 5: the reverse of your picks.
Speaker 3: Well you would have lost that too, because I had
Speaker 3: a winning week last week. Let's show it America. Okay,
Speaker 3: So we went three and two last week after three
Speaker 3: straight two and three weeks, but once again we lost
Speaker 3: our right move the lock of the week. So I
Speaker 3: would like to discuss those picks briefly and we'll get
Speaker 3: to this week's picks. First of all, what a sharp
Speaker 3: side for me with Minnesota. This is where we talk
Speaker 3: line value. We got Minnesota because these lines locked for
Speaker 3: us when the Fox bet lines whatever they are, when
Speaker 3: the super Contest locks on Wednesday evening, because we do
Speaker 3: this on Thursday morning, which sometimes screws us. Sometimes we
Speaker 3: don't have all the information, but that's how we do it.
Speaker 3: And I said I loved Minnesota laying less than a
Speaker 3: field goal in that game in London. Then what happened
Speaker 3: day of the game. Oh my god, Jamis is out,
Speaker 3: Kamara's out, Michael Thomas is out. When all the way
Speaker 3: to Minnesota minus four or four and a half, Minnesota
Speaker 3: one by three. So if you got it when we
Speaker 3: said it, you won. Vegas covered easily, the Chiefs covered
Speaker 3: by a million. My love affair with betting games involving
Speaker 3: the Chicago Bears must end. It will end. This week
Speaker 3: the Bears did not cover. And then there's the lock.
Speaker 3: So I would like to tell you how the locks
Speaker 3: have gone for us this year. Week one, we had
Speaker 3: Baltimore covered easily. Week two we had Baltimore, they were
Speaker 3: up twenty one in the fourth quarter. We were laying
Speaker 3: three and a half. They did not win. Week three
Speaker 3: we had San Francisco laying a point and a half.
Speaker 3: Despite Jimmy Garoppolo's self safetying, we still were in fine shape.
Speaker 3: Then the Broncos go down and score. The Niners had
Speaker 3: the ball two more times. Down one, we're laying one
Speaker 3: and a half. We just need a field goal. We
Speaker 3: cover back to back turnovers. And then last week Jacksonville
Speaker 3: is getting six and a half. It's fourteen to nothing
Speaker 3: before Demons got back from his night out at Pianos,
Speaker 3: and all of a sudden, we lose that game outright,
Speaker 3: we lose the game. They lose by eight points. So
Speaker 3: the reason I say that is this our process has
Speaker 3: been sound on the locks. Our process has been sound
Speaker 3: on these picks. We have made twenty picks so far
Speaker 3: this year. I've done the I've crunched the numbers, if
Speaker 3: you will. Eight of them win or law Eight of
Speaker 3: them have been fifty to fifty games. Okay, so six
Speaker 3: of them we have been on the right side of
Speaker 3: by a mile, and the other six we have had
Speaker 3: five very unlucky go against us and only one very
Speaker 3: lucky go our way. That was the Arizona game from
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago. So point is, we're not going
Speaker 3: to change our process here, with the exception of we're
Speaker 3: not gonna let the Bears ruin our record anymore. We're
Speaker 3: not spilling to change our process. You tried to talk
Speaker 3: me out of the Bears thing last week. I will
Speaker 3: give you credit on that DEMANDE also gave us three
Speaker 3: picks last week. I think we're gonna discuss those later
Speaker 3: in the show. But right now, let's get to our
Speaker 3: picks for the week. We're starting with the Prince that
Speaker 3: was promised, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars laying seven
Speaker 3: against the Houston Texans.
Speaker 6: I don't typically believe in Jacksonville.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's why we like it. It's a good
Speaker 3: catch by you. You as Jacksonville right now has been
Speaker 3: a top ten defense and a top ten offense. Jacksonville
Speaker 3: should be three to one, not because they should have
Speaker 3: won the Philly game, but they should have won Week one.
Speaker 3: They have also shown an ability to blow people out.
Speaker 3: They blew out the Chargers and they blew out the Colts.
Speaker 3: I like what they're doing on both sides of the ball.
Speaker 3: Houston is the only win list team. Houston is just
Speaker 3: going to try to run the ball. Run the ball.
Speaker 3: Davis Mills has you know, reversed back to the regressed,
Speaker 3: pardon me, back to the mean. As far as turnovers,
Speaker 3: I expect this to be a game that Jacksonville jumps
Speaker 3: out early like they did against Philadelphia, does not make
Speaker 3: the same mistakes they made against Philadelphia. Trevor's not gonna
Speaker 3: have five turnovers. He's not gonna have the most fumbles
Speaker 3: of any player lost fumbles of any player in the
Speaker 3: last twenty plus years.
Speaker 4: As long as it's not Rady, Well, you.
Speaker 3: Know that's a good point. Let's check the old weather forecast.
Speaker 3: This is also one of the issues potentially with betting
Speaker 3: these games on a Thursday, You're not gonna get the
Speaker 3: most precise weather forecast. But his game is in Jacksonville, Florida.
Speaker 3: It's certainly not gonna be the torrential downpour that we
Speaker 3: had to deal with. And guess what on Sunday Sonny high
Speaker 3: of eighty three, low of sixty four, no chance of precipitation.
Speaker 3: That's a recipe for Jacksonville blowing out the Houston Texans.
Speaker 3: We will lay the seven points. Next game, Seattle catching
Speaker 3: five and a half against New Orleans. Now, this is
Speaker 3: another one where I, because I have promised to you guys,
Speaker 3: I will bet all of these games. Obviously will bet
Speaker 3: all of these games. I'm gonna recommend you guys just
Speaker 3: keep your eye on the injury report for both teams,
Speaker 3: but particularly what it really matters for is the Saints
Speaker 3: because at last check, we don't know is jamis playing.
Speaker 3: We do expect Alvin Kamara to be playing. Michael Thomas
Speaker 3: At this point, people need to stop backing like Michael
Speaker 3: Thomas some big difference. Finger right, Thomas, unbelievable player three
Speaker 3: years ago. Then you heard his ankle two years ago
Speaker 3: was barely you know, was on and off the field
Speaker 3: that year last year was missed the entire year with
Speaker 3: that same ankle injury. This year came back Week one.
Speaker 3: He's been on and off since then. Okay, there is
Speaker 3: no reason New Orleans should be favored by more than
Speaker 3: four points against anyone. Seattle, on the other hand, has
Speaker 3: had a frisky offense. Very bad defense, but a frisky offense.
Speaker 3: There's back door cover opportunity. I think Seattle could win
Speaker 3: the game outright. Andy Dalton potentially is the starter, even
Speaker 3: if he's not. Jamis has not exactly bathed himself in
Speaker 3: glories so far this year. Dennis Allen has one of
Speaker 3: the five worst records of any NFL head coach in
Speaker 3: the last seventy years of football for a coach that's
Speaker 3: coached as many games as him Seattle. I would have
Speaker 3: when we were doing this you this Sunday. We didn't
Speaker 3: do it because the Chiefs game was on, but Demonsey
Speaker 3: and I like to do a Bill Simmons cousin south
Speaker 3: thing of guessing the lines. I guessed it was New
Speaker 3: Orleans minus two and a half. I'm never off by
Speaker 3: three points on that. I'm not saying I always picked
Speaker 3: the right side of it, but I'm usually pretty good
Speaker 3: about guessing where Vegas is gonna set it. I don't
Speaker 3: understand the respect New Orleans is getting when New Orleans
Speaker 3: very very easily could be an zero to four football team.
Speaker 3: Let me remind you about what New orleans Is year
Speaker 3: has been like so far, because it's actually gonna come
Speaker 3: into play in a later pick. But New Orleans so
Speaker 3: far this season. Week one, they're down sixteen to Atlanta
Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter, furious comeback they win by a point.
Speaker 3: Week two, they can't move the ball at all, Tampa
Speaker 3: dominates them. Week three they lose to the hapless Panthers.
Speaker 3: And last week in London they lose to Minnesota despite
Speaker 3: Minnesota shooting itself in the foot repeatedly, and they got
Speaker 3: a flyback from London. They didn't take the bye after
Speaker 3: the international trip. All those reasons. I like Seattle plus
Speaker 3: the five and a.
Speaker 4: Half and Gino Smith.
Speaker 3: What about him?
Speaker 6: Are you buying into him being a top quarterback.
Speaker 3: I'm not buying into him being a top quarterback. But
Speaker 3: am I buying into him not being awful? Yeah, he
Speaker 3: wasn't awful when he filled in for us last year.
Speaker 3: This year he's actually been excellent. Now that will regress somewhat,
Speaker 3: and New Orleans has a good defense, but five and
Speaker 3: a half's too much. We like Seattle plus the five
Speaker 3: and a half. Speaking of Atlanta, next pick Atlanta catching
Speaker 3: eight in the hook eight and a half at Tampa. Okay,
Speaker 3: so let's talk about the Atlanta Falcons for a moment.
Speaker 3: A team that some people thought was gonna be the
Speaker 3: worst team in football this year.
Speaker 6: And I can act like Atlanta what They're not far off?
Speaker 3: Well, except for this Week one Atlanta. We just mentioned
Speaker 3: it up sixteen and the fourth they blew it. Week
Speaker 3: two Atlanta, and this is why we like the plus
Speaker 3: eight and a half. Week two Atlanta is down thirty
Speaker 3: one to ten with nine minutes left. Okay, that game
Speaker 3: is thirty one twenty seven in the fourth quarter, and
Speaker 3: you know what happens. All of a sudden, Jared Goff
Speaker 3: and Jared Goff uh. Marcus Mariota is thrown into the
Speaker 3: end zone and Jalen Ramsey has to moss. I think
Speaker 3: it's Drake London to save the game. But a furious comeback.
Speaker 3: They could have won. They shouldn't have won, but they
Speaker 3: could have won. But furious comeback to cover Week two
Speaker 3: Atlanta they go to Seattle all the way furthest trip
Speaker 3: in the one of the furthest trips in the NFL
Speaker 3: scheduled this season. Atlanta, Georgia to Seattle, Washington. They win
Speaker 3: the game out right twenty three to twenty or twenty
Speaker 3: seven to twenty three, pardon me. And Week four Atlanta
Speaker 3: a game that I told you all was a trap.
Speaker 3: I told you to stay away with Cleveland minus one
Speaker 3: and a half, and Demonsey's watching the game with me.
Speaker 3: Cleveland takes a lead in the fourth quarter. He's like, oh,
Speaker 3: you said this was a trap. What does Atlanta do?
Speaker 3: Boom boom, back to backfield goal drives. They win the
Speaker 3: game out right twenty three to twenty against a frisky
Speaker 3: Cleveland team. Now you're giving me more than a touchdown. Furthermore,
Speaker 3: I don't want to get into Tom Brady's personal life.
Speaker 3: It's been a rough week.
Speaker 4: Gee.
Speaker 3: He's also banged up. Yeah, the Chiefs hurt him, got
Speaker 3: his shoulder. His finger was already banged up. I'm not
Speaker 3: picking Atlanta to win this game, but I do think
Speaker 3: that if Tampa has a lead late, they are going
Speaker 3: to grind the clock and run the ball and not
Speaker 3: put Brady in Jeopardy that screams Atlanta. Furthermore, Atlanta has
Speaker 3: shown because Arthur Smith, their coach, has talked all this trash,
Speaker 3: there are no give up team. So even if they're
Speaker 3: getting their teeth kicked in, they are going to do
Speaker 3: their damnedest to stay in the football game. Or you
Speaker 3: could be down they've down fifteen with five minutes left
Speaker 3: and cover this game. I love the eight and a half,
Speaker 3: by the way, I love it that extra half point.
Speaker 3: It feels good. Situation where they're down eleven with ninety
Speaker 3: seconds left and they do the we're gonna kick the
Speaker 3: field goal and then go on sidekick. All of a
Speaker 3: sudden you're covering again. Additionally, the Chiefs just ran the
Speaker 3: ball one hundred and eighty five yards on this Tampa
Speaker 3: defense that previously you couldn't run the ball. Lanta's running
Speaker 3: this weird college offense. I think they're going to run
Speaker 3: the ball. I think both teams are going to run
Speaker 3: the ball, which means it will be a fast game,
Speaker 3: lower scoring game. You're giving me eight and a half
Speaker 3: points like.
Speaker 4: Plus the eight, Atlanta's four and against the spread so far.
Speaker 3: So here's the thing I did not know that I
Speaker 3: saw it in your notes.
Speaker 4: Might be too late to jump on that bandwagon, you know.
Speaker 3: I don't love that. Yeah, I'll tell you that much.
Speaker 3: I don't love the four and oh against the spread.
Speaker 3: It is scary it. I saw that, and it gave
Speaker 3: me a bit of pause. But we're gonna disregard that,
Speaker 3: and we're gonna plow ahead with Atlanta plus the eight
Speaker 3: and a half. All right, next line, Dallas plus five
Speaker 3: and a half at the Rams. Someone make a case
Speaker 3: to me that the Rams are a great team that
Speaker 3: doesn't involve last year's Super Bowl. It can't be made.
Speaker 3: Someone make a case to me that Matt Stafford looks
Speaker 3: like a top flight quarterback that does not involve last
Speaker 3: year's Super Bowl and Super Bowl run. It cannot be made.
Speaker 3: The Rams so far this year got their teeth kicked
Speaker 3: in by Buffalo. Fine, we just told you about the
Speaker 3: Atlanta game. Now, they dominated that game and then the
Speaker 3: fourth quarter tried to give it away, so that no,
Speaker 3: not you know, no step on your throat there. They
Speaker 3: then escape against a miserable Cardinals team and get totally
Speaker 3: I mean dominated by San Francisco. Okay, so let's talk
Speaker 3: about that for a moment. That game was on Monday night,
Speaker 3: so the Rams are on a short week. That's interesting.
Speaker 3: Their offensive line is in shambles. The Cowboys have an
Speaker 3: argument that they have the best pass rushing duo in
Speaker 3: the whole league in Michael Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The
Speaker 3: Cowboys also have shown you they're going to throw the
Speaker 3: ball on first down and then run the ball. Just
Speaker 3: try not to turn the ball over. Conservative game that
Speaker 3: also lends you to side of the underdog. Dallas has
Speaker 3: been better than I gave them credit for being able
Speaker 3: to be, particularly after Dack's injury.
Speaker 5: But don't you think like that time might be coming
Speaker 5: up for Cooper Rush to have a slip up game.
Speaker 6: I do too many games in a row like we
Speaker 6: saw it.
Speaker 3: So I actually agree with that, and I think that
Speaker 3: could happen this week. We could have the three interception
Speaker 3: Cooper Rush game. Right I don't think the Rams have
Speaker 3: enough firepower to blow anybody out right now. I just don't.
Speaker 3: And I think that Stafford is going to be under
Speaker 3: such dress. It's going to be all quick passing game stuff.
Speaker 3: The Cowboys, if they're smart and they have a smart defense,
Speaker 3: will double Cooper Cup throughout. I just think this should
Speaker 3: be Rams by three, and the Rams are getting an
Speaker 3: extra two and a half thanks being Super Bowl champs,
Speaker 3: and that matters nothing to me at this point. Dallas
Speaker 3: plus I was thinking about Dallas at plus four and
Speaker 3: a half, which is I think where it opened, Dallas
Speaker 3: plus five and a half. I like, even though I
Speaker 3: haven't been big on the Cowboys, I like Dallas catching
Speaker 3: the five and a half points. The final pick we
Speaker 3: are giving out is Kansaity minus seven against the Raiders. Oh, Nick,
Speaker 3: you always picked the Chiefs false. Did not pick the
Speaker 3: Chiefs in week one and they covered. Did not pick
Speaker 3: the Chiefs in week two and they covered. Did not
Speaker 3: pick the Chiefs in week three. I had them in
Speaker 3: a teaser. Oh I did not pick them against the
Speaker 3: spread and they did not cover and they lost. Out Right.
Speaker 3: I did pick the Chiefs last week, picked them on
Speaker 3: this show lang one, and then I bet them a little.
Speaker 3: I don't call it irresponsibly, but remember I told you
Speaker 3: when you're gambling, you like to decide what your unit
Speaker 3: size is. Yeah, and then you know, have that be
Speaker 3: your typical bet. If you unit size one hundred bucks.
Speaker 3: Occasionally you do a half or a three quarter unit
Speaker 3: bet fifty or seventy five. Occasionally, if you really like something,
Speaker 3: you'll do a one and a half unit bet. We
Speaker 3: don't need to talk about what my average bet size is.
Speaker 3: But we went with the old four unit bet on
Speaker 3: Manas City the night before my birthday. Here's why. In
Speaker 3: that game, first time in thirty eight games, Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 3: was an underdog. You're not Gonnam. I might not get
Speaker 3: that opportunity bet on him as a underdog again for
Speaker 3: three years. I had to take advantage of it. The
Speaker 3: Chiefs kicked the Raiders ass except for two years ago
Speaker 3: where they played two close games. They play the Raiders
Speaker 3: and they kick their teeth in. The Raiders also got
Speaker 3: their win, so that the desperation a little gone. The Chiefs,
Speaker 3: on the other hand, understand because they I think they
Speaker 3: still have the added edge of having given that game
Speaker 3: away against the Colts. Yea at home. It's on Monday night.
Speaker 3: Arrowhead is going to be absolutely out of its mind.
Speaker 3: I think that right now, teams watched what the Chiefs
Speaker 3: did against Tampa recognize the Chiefs are willing to just
Speaker 3: run the ball, run the ball. They're not going to
Speaker 3: be able to play in that two high shell the
Speaker 3: whole game. And because of that Cat, I think Mahomes
Speaker 3: is going to have more opportunities. The only way any
Speaker 3: team has ever slowed down Mahomes his entire career is
Speaker 3: get constant pressure on the quarterback. The Raiders have one
Speaker 3: of the worst pass rushes in the league. Listen, I
Speaker 3: like what the Raiders are able to do on offense.
Speaker 3: I think DeVante Adams is gonna end up being a
Speaker 3: great player for them. I think you'll have a big game.
Speaker 3: I still like the Chiefs. I feel like this game
Speaker 3: should be Kansaity minus nine and a half. It's Kansidy
Speaker 3: minus seven. I like it.
Speaker 5: You said you have the opportunity to bet on the
Speaker 5: Chiefs or bet on Patrick Mahomes being an underdogar that
Speaker 5: won't happen for a while. You don't think that when
Speaker 5: they play the Bills coming up here, so that they'll
Speaker 5: be underdogs.
Speaker 3: That game's in Kansas City, right, If that game's in
Speaker 3: Kansas City, the answer is absolutely, unequivocally no, I don't
Speaker 3: think they'll be underdogs. Now, what I will say is,
Speaker 3: is there a concern, a bit of a concern the
Speaker 3: Chiefs could be in look ahead mode to the Bills game,
Speaker 3: if the Bucks game in the Bills game, Raiders trap
Speaker 3: game in the middle, maybe, except for the fact the
Speaker 3: Raiders have beaten the Chiefs once in Patrick Mahomes's career
Speaker 3: and those sons of bitches did laps around the stadium
Speaker 3: celebrating it. And I don't think the Chiefs are over
Speaker 3: that part of it. Okay, So Kansas City minus seven
Speaker 3: should be nine and a half. So our five picks
Speaker 3: are Jacksonville minus seven, Seattle plus five and a half,
Speaker 3: Atlanta plus eight and a half, Dallas plus five and
Speaker 3: a half in Kansas City minus seven. All right, We'll
Speaker 3: go through the other eleven games on the slate quickly
Speaker 3: coming up next, And there is never the one thing.
Speaker 3: While our record's been mediocre, we have been spot on
Speaker 3: on the be careful category. We've prevented people from making
Speaker 3: bets they shouldn't. There are four road favorites this week
Speaker 3: that we beg you to be careful on. We will
Speaker 3: discuss all of those and the rest of the slate
Speaker 3: before we get to our official lock Exotics survivor all
Speaker 3: that coming up next. What's right? Nick right? NFL gamelin
Speaker 3: Show Week five.
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Speaker 3: Welcome back in What's Right, Nick Right, Episode seventy nine,
Speaker 3: Week five NFL Gambling Show. We just gave you our
Speaker 3: five picks. We'll get to the lock and all the
Speaker 3: other fun stuff later, but there are eleven other games
Speaker 3: we need to discuss. We put them into three categories.
Speaker 3: Stay away, be careful and perfectly priced. First on the
Speaker 3: stay away line, and then do we I think we
Speaker 3: show you all of these here? Yeah, so here are
Speaker 3: four stayaways. We're going to start with Indy at Denver.
Speaker 3: Indy is getting three and a half. This is a
Speaker 3: vintage stay Away for the following reasons. One is no
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor, but also massive injury questions on both sides
Speaker 3: of the ball, and it's a Thursday night game, so
Speaker 3: people will already have known what happens here. I'm not
Speaker 3: comfortable laying three and a half points with Denver right
Speaker 3: now against almost anyone that has a pulse in this league.
Speaker 3: I know somebody want to like, the Colts don't have
Speaker 3: a pulse, and without Jonathan Taylor, they certain they shouldn't
Speaker 3: have a pulse. However, the one thing the Colts have
Speaker 3: done really well this year is get after the quarterback.
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson will run himself into some sacks. I think
Speaker 3: that the injury questions, the short week, all of that
Speaker 3: to me, that to stay away for me for well.
Speaker 3: I mean, if they lose this game to a Colts
Speaker 3: team with though Jonathan Taylor, then they're a five win team.
Speaker 3: Then I mean it's hard to find their wins. I
Speaker 3: expect them to win this week, but it's gonna be
Speaker 3: hard for them to ever get on a real hot
Speaker 3: streak because so after this week, then they're at the Chargers.
Speaker 3: That's a loss for them. Then they're home for the Jets.
Speaker 3: That's good. Then they're at Jacksonville. To me, that's a
Speaker 3: loss for them, then a bye home for Tennessee home
Speaker 3: for Vegas, or at Tennessee home Vegas at Carolina. They
Speaker 3: get a nice little streak there, but then at the
Speaker 3: end of the year for them at KC home for
Speaker 3: Arizona at the Rams at case again home for the Chargers,
Speaker 3: to must win game for both of these teams, both
Speaker 3: of them were without their star running backs. Stay away
Speaker 3: next Green Bay against the Giants Giants catching eight.
Speaker 4: Wanted.
Speaker 3: I almost included the Giants plus eight and my picks.
Speaker 3: This game is in London. The reason it to stay
Speaker 3: away for us right now is the total question of
Speaker 3: what healthy quarterbacks do the Giants have. We don't yet
Speaker 3: have enough information on it. Also, the Packers have not
Speaker 3: looked great against anybody this year. They probably shouldn't be
Speaker 3: favored by more than a touchdown against any team, particularly
Speaker 3: a team and the Giants three and one, well, I
Speaker 3: don't care so much to the three and one. I
Speaker 3: do care that Sakwan's been one of the best players
Speaker 3: in the league this year. The Packers have not been
Speaker 3: able to consistently stop the run the way you would
Speaker 3: have hoped or expected them to be able to. You
Speaker 3: would think, I mean what did we see this past week?
Speaker 3: The Patriots ran the ball, ran the ball, ran the ball,
Speaker 3: taking the final play of overtime. But because of the
Speaker 3: questions at the quarterback spot, you can't bet the Giants.
Speaker 3: But you also can't lay eight with Green Bay right now,
Speaker 3: stay away. Next Detroit at New England. New England laying
Speaker 3: three points. Okay, so the Lions defense has been so
Speaker 3: awful this year, you feel like a Belichick team is
Speaker 3: going to be able to look at that film and
Speaker 3: exploit them in every area on the offensive side of
Speaker 3: the ball. However, it might be Bailey Zappies starting this game.
Speaker 3: Mac Jones came back to practice. We don't If this
Speaker 3: were Sunday morning, we might be able to give you
Speaker 3: a line on it. But as we're sitting here Thursday morning,
Speaker 3: and when you guys hear this on Friday, we're still
Speaker 3: not going to know who's playing quarterback for the Patriots.
Speaker 3: I'm not comfortable with laying three points with New England
Speaker 3: against a team that can score a bunch. I'm also
Speaker 3: not comfortable with betting on the Troit plus three against
Speaker 3: a well coached team when the defense is that bad.
Speaker 3: What's up?
Speaker 5: I feel like We've stayed away from betting against coach
Speaker 5: Belichick every week except for the one time that they
Speaker 5: played Baltimore, So you still well listen.
Speaker 3: He deserves listen. He's the greatest coach ever. And yeah,
Speaker 3: we've had two strong leans on the Patriots so far
Speaker 3: this year Week two, Week three against Baltimore and Week two.
Speaker 3: We told you it was a trap. Everyone's gonna be
Speaker 3: betting Pittsburgh. This is just the quarterback injury. That's why
Speaker 3: you have the stay away category because of the quarterback injury.
Speaker 3: All right, Tennessee at Washington, Washington getting two and a half.
Speaker 3: This is I'm gonna be totally honest with you. This
Speaker 3: was the last game that I put in any category.
Speaker 3: I had no lean or feel for this. These might
Speaker 3: be two of the teams I've watched the least of
Speaker 3: anyone in football this year. We can just move on.
Speaker 3: You have great insight on Tennessee Washington. God bless I don't.
Speaker 3: All right, be careful, home dogs, home dogs. It's not
Speaker 3: that you can never bet the road favorite, but be careful.
Speaker 3: We will start with Miami minus three and a half
Speaker 3: against the Jets. Miami. The reasons for Miami extended break
Speaker 3: because they were off since Thursday. Teddy Bridgewater one of
Speaker 3: the better quarterbacks in all the football. They're playing the Jets,
Speaker 3: which is always a reason to bet. The other side
Speaker 3: of it, reason for the Jets a bit of a
Speaker 3: stirring comeback last week is Zach Wilson. Maybe good, Probably not,
Speaker 3: but maybe. But the reason this is in the be
Speaker 3: careful category is nobody is going to be betting the Jets.
Speaker 3: This is going to be a game where eighty percent
Speaker 3: of the public money is going to be on the Dolphins,
Speaker 3: on the belief that Hill and Waddle by themselves are
Speaker 3: going to be another for twenty four points. The Jets
Speaker 3: aren't going to be able to get there. They are
Speaker 3: begging you to bet Miami, and it feels like a
Speaker 3: game that that half point really matters. Now do I
Speaker 3: have the gumption to bet on the Jets? I do not,
Speaker 3: but be careful. Next one, Chargers laying just two and
Speaker 3: a half against Cleveland. We've seen Cleveland lose to the Jets.
Speaker 3: We saw him lose last week to Atlanta. They have
Speaker 3: Jacoby Rsset at quarterback. Miles Garrett was just in a
Speaker 3: big car accident. I do think he has a good
Speaker 3: chance of playing this weekend though that line. I stared
Speaker 3: at this for fifteen minutes trying to talk myself out
Speaker 3: of betting the Chargers. I think the Chargers are an
Speaker 3: excellent team. I think they have some of the most
Speaker 3: talent in the league. I'm laying less than a field
Speaker 3: goalies for the Chargers. The cross Country travel the old
Speaker 3: West Coast team in a one o'clock East Coast kickoff,
Speaker 3: short road favorite to trap. It's a trap. We need
Speaker 3: a you know what for next week. Let's make an
Speaker 3: animation for it's a trap, and it canna be like demonse,
Speaker 3: like stepping into a bear trap or falling into a hole,
Speaker 3: or maybe we make a bunch of them. They are
Speaker 3: daring you to bet the Chargers. They're daring you too.
Speaker 3: It's a trap. I again, I say all this. I
Speaker 3: expect the Chargers to win by ten, but I know
Speaker 3: it's a trap, all right. Next San Francisco at Carolina
Speaker 3: another trapan No one is betting the Is anyone betting
Speaker 3: the Panthers. Can you imagine meeting someone this week who's
Speaker 3: a football better and they're gonna be like, hey, I'll
Speaker 3: tell you what. I love. Baker Mayfield against the defense
Speaker 3: that's allowing the the fewest yards in forty five years.
Speaker 3: The Niners just looked awesome. Niners have shown the ability,
Speaker 3: even when their quarterback doesn't play well, to beat a
Speaker 3: team by fifteen points. The Panthers have been one of
Speaker 3: the most poorly coached teams, and Baker's been arguably the
Speaker 3: worst quarterback in football this year. So why isn't San
Speaker 3: Francisco favored by eight?
Speaker 4: Why don't we like them against Baker?
Speaker 3: Because it's a tramp I know this sounds dumb. I
Speaker 3: might bet this if it were San Francisco minus seven
Speaker 3: and a half. At six and a half, it looks
Speaker 3: so good I feel obligated to stay away San Francisco
Speaker 3: on a shorter week. You're always a little overvalued when
Speaker 3: you look great on national TV all you're a road
Speaker 3: favorite of more than three points. You are now the
Speaker 3: team that's the West Coast team going all the way
Speaker 3: east for the one o'clock kickoff. It is a trap.
Speaker 3: Six and a half is too good to be true.
Speaker 3: For a defense and running game that good against a
Speaker 3: quarterback and coaching staff that bad, it's a trap.
Speaker 4: I hope you don't come to regret that one.
Speaker 3: Right well, listen, I'm not gonna regret it by not
Speaker 3: betting it. You're the one that tortures yourself with bets
Speaker 3: you make and bets you don't. I don't ever regret
Speaker 3: like a bet I didn't make like that. But I'm
Speaker 3: telling you right now, you love it, our producers, I'm
Speaker 3: sure love it. That means it's a trap, all right.
Speaker 3: Last one, Philly say a lot of the same logic
Speaker 3: here Philly at Arizona. Philly laying five and a half.
Speaker 3: Phillies looked like the best team in football. Arizona has
Speaker 3: been a total mess all year. Why is Philly laying
Speaker 3: less than six points? All of these games? What they
Speaker 3: have in common, if we can put them all back
Speaker 3: on the screen again, is every member of the square
Speaker 3: betting public is going to be on the road favorite.
Speaker 3: That is why we created the be Careful category. It's
Speaker 3: not because I have great reasoning as to why you
Speaker 3: should bet the home dog. It's just I know the
Speaker 3: public is going to be on the road favorite. It's
Speaker 3: a trap, all right. Last group perfectly priced, and we'll
Speaker 3: do this one quickly because it's perfectly priced. Cincinnati and Baltimore.
Speaker 3: It's a division game against two somewhat equally matched teams.
Speaker 3: It should be a three point game. It's priced at
Speaker 3: three points. That is a game that if a come
Speaker 3: around kickoffs, it gets to three and a half. I
Speaker 3: jump on Senci at three. I can't do it. I
Speaker 3: do A small part of me thinks Cincinnati might win
Speaker 3: that game. But the line is exactly right. There's no
Speaker 3: value on either of that line. Next one, Chicago at Minnesota. Again,
Speaker 3: we're taking a break from involving ourselves in these Chicago games.
Speaker 3: Minnesota is a very poorly coached team. Chicago, on the
Speaker 3: other hand, is the worst passing offense in seventy years
Speaker 3: in this league. It would appear Minnesota divisional game to
Speaker 3: the far better team. It's priced exactly at seven. It's
Speaker 3: just right. And then Pittsburgh at Buffalo. Pittsburgh needed five
Speaker 3: turnovers and multiple miskicks or else they're owing four to
Speaker 3: rookie quarterbacks first start. Buffalo, on the other hand, has
Speaker 3: shown the ability when the team is overmatched to truly
Speaker 3: blow them out.
Speaker 5: The fourteen points though against Mike Tomlin all to find
Speaker 5: some way to cover that it's fourteen points.
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't know if you can cover it.
Speaker 3: If listen, here's my take on it. I don't think
Speaker 3: the reason I'm calling it perfectly priced is you can't
Speaker 3: in the NFL unless it is an O seven Patriot
Speaker 3: situation or a historically awful awful team on the other
Speaker 3: side of its situation. You can't make someone more than
Speaker 3: a fourteen point favorite. But this Buffalo team that hasn't
Speaker 3: had a great game start to finish on both sides
Speaker 3: of the ball in a few weeks against the Pittsburgh
Speaker 3: team that is banged up and is starting a rookie
Speaker 3: in his first game ever. Fourteen's what it should be.
Speaker 3: To me, that's just right. I'm not betting Pittsburgh plus
Speaker 3: now I might include Buffalo in a teaser. We have
Speaker 3: a teaser that I placed earlier in the week. The
Speaker 3: lines have moved a bit, but I will share that
Speaker 3: teaser with you. Guys. We have our Survivor pick, and
Speaker 3: again we're four for four documented on Survivors. Demand's got
Speaker 3: his picks. We also have to check Demonse's record from
Speaker 3: last week. I'm not sure how well that went for you.
Speaker 3: I haven't checked it yet. We'll do all that as
Speaker 3: we wrap up the Gambling show. What's Right episode seven.
Speaker 3: All Right, Welcome back in What's Right? Nick Right? Episode
Speaker 3: seventy nine, Week five, NFL Gambling Show. Our five picks
Speaker 3: of the week from earlier in the show are as follows.
Speaker 3: Jacksonville minus seven against Houston, Seattle getting five and a
Speaker 3: half at New Orleans, Atlanta getting eight and a half
Speaker 3: at Tampa, Dallas getting five and a half at the
Speaker 3: Rams in Kansas City minus seven against the Raiders. Our
Speaker 3: lock of the week, the right Move, as they've called it.
Speaker 3: We are one and three on these. However, Week one
Speaker 3: nailed it wasn't even closed Baltimore against the Jets. Week
Speaker 3: two had Baltimore lanyg three and a half to the Dolphins.
Speaker 3: They were up twenty one points and blew it. Week
Speaker 3: three we had San Francisco laying a point and a
Speaker 3: half to Denver. Jimmy g self safety and we were
Speaker 3: still covering, and then Jimmy g threw a pick and
Speaker 3: then they fumbled and they lost by one. We're on
Speaker 3: the right side of it. Week four we had Jacksonville
Speaker 3: catching nice to the graphic. Oh I didn't even notice it,
Speaker 3: so rude. We had Jacksonville catching six and a half.
Speaker 3: They were up fourteen to nothing. They lost by eight.
Speaker 3: Our process has been sound. The lock this week is
Speaker 3: the Kancity Chiefs minus seven against the Raiders. Demonse, you
Speaker 3: co signed that because that was one of the birthday
Speaker 3: picks you gave me. Correct.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know about co signing. What do you
Speaker 4: mean I just signed it?
Speaker 3: Oh you think you inspired it?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Okay?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 3: Speaking of do we have Demanse's record? When are we
Speaker 3: doing that? Can we do? Are we doing that now
Speaker 3: or later?
Speaker 4: Hey? Man?
Speaker 5: It might be better than yours or it might get
Speaker 5: the same, like we might be tied No.
Speaker 3: One and two?
Speaker 5: Buddy, what are you talking about last?
Speaker 6: Look?
Speaker 3: You only you gave it out last week and Miami
Speaker 3: plus four I told you was a trap. Minnesota minus
Speaker 3: two and a half.
Speaker 6: You just followed me, not one in two total.
Speaker 4: I'm like three and four.
Speaker 3: Okay, Well you've only given out three official ones on
Speaker 3: the show. All right, so you're too. We'll get to
Speaker 3: keep a record. Sweet and the Rams they got their
Speaker 3: asses kids wasn't even close. It was embarrassing. What has
Speaker 3: not been embarrassing is our survivor picks. If you are
Speaker 3: following along with us, Oh, look at that you have
Speaker 3: already used Baltimore, Green Bay, Minnesota in the Chargers this week.
Speaker 3: There are so many attractive survivor options, so this week
Speaker 3: your possible survivor options are last week, there wasn't that
Speaker 3: many good ones this week, so Chiefs are not a
Speaker 3: terrible one.
Speaker 4: I was gonna say the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: But you might want to want to save the Bills.
Speaker 3: Nobody's gonna be a bigger favorite anywhere in the league
Speaker 3: this year than the Bills. The Vikings, if you hadn't,
Speaker 3: we already used them. But the Vikings not a great team.
Speaker 3: But they're playing the Bears laying a touchdown Tampa, you
Speaker 3: don't love it, Tampa laying more than a touchdown against
Speaker 3: the frisky Falcons. The Jags are an option laying seven
Speaker 3: against the terrible Texans. So you have a bunch of
Speaker 3: good survivor. Our survivor pick of the week, having already
Speaker 3: used Baltimore, Green Made Minnesota and the Chargers, is the
Speaker 3: prince that was promised Jacksonville home against the Texans. He
Speaker 3: is not going to lose consecutive games. The Jags get
Speaker 3: back above five hundred, they are our survivor pick. Now
Speaker 3: to exotics. We placed one early this week. It is
Speaker 3: a seven and a half point teaser, four teamer plus
Speaker 3: one seventy. The Jags teased from minus seven to plus
Speaker 3: a half point. They say, don't tease through zero specifically, correct, However,
Speaker 3: we need the seven and a half for the other
Speaker 3: three legs, and if there are is a time to
Speaker 3: tease through zero, it's win. One of the teams involved
Speaker 3: in your teaser has already had a tie. Texans have
Speaker 3: already had a tie. Plus half point could come in Andy.
Speaker 3: Tampa teased to minus half points, so Tampa just win.
Speaker 3: The Bills teased to minus six and a half, so
Speaker 3: they just have to win by a touchdown, and the
Speaker 3: Chiefs tease to a pick. So there it is our
Speaker 3: four team teaser. Jacksonville to win, Tampa to win, the
Speaker 3: Chiefs to win, and Buffalo to win by at least
Speaker 3: a touchdown plus one seventy. That's my teaser. Now you
Speaker 3: are going to try to convince me on a teaser.
Speaker 3: Is that correct?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 4: What is it?
Speaker 6: Packers minus two in London versus the Giants?
Speaker 5: Yeah, got niners minus half a point in Carolina, Jacksonville
Speaker 5: minas one and this one hundred dollars wins you one sixty.
Speaker 3: So it's plus one sixty. It's a three team six
Speaker 3: point teaser. I don't want it. I don't want it
Speaker 3: because a little nervous about the Packers leg of it,
Speaker 3: and we're not gonna have multiple teasers.
Speaker 4: Geez what what that's disrespectful.
Speaker 3: Saquon might run for a one sixty on them and
Speaker 3: it's London weird game. I appreciate the producers and you
Speaker 3: coming together for that. Not interested demons your picks this
Speaker 3: week that you gave out on Monday? What are your
Speaker 3: picks this week?
Speaker 5: Denver minus three and a half versus Indiana? You all
Speaker 5: in Indianapolis?
Speaker 3: I always call him Indiana?
Speaker 4: Uh second? All?
Speaker 3: By the way, fun, it'll be fun for the audience
Speaker 3: if by the time they're hearing this, you're already owing
Speaker 3: one because that game's happening tonight. All right.
Speaker 6: Next, you got.
Speaker 5: Kansas City minus seven versus the Raiders, yep, and then
Speaker 5: Arizona getting five and a half versus Philly.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 3: I expect de Montay's three picks this week to go
Speaker 3: just like they did last week. He'll get one, right,
Speaker 3: it's the one that he agrees with me on on
Speaker 3: the other two the one that he agrees with me on. Yeah,
Speaker 3: it's true, all right. Lastly, what's the offer.
Speaker 5: The offer is Jaguars money line, Bronco's money line, Commander's
Speaker 5: money line one hundred wins you three to thirty five.
Speaker 3: And if that happens, the Jags will be alone in
Speaker 3: the first place. That's the idea behind it. I am
Speaker 3: gonna reject that one too. I appreciate the offer. They
Speaker 3: said I should go in on it with you. I
Speaker 3: am not involving Nat Hackett were the Washington commanders in
Speaker 3: any money line parlays, I'm not interested. I appreciate the offer.
Speaker 3: Not doing it, so thank you, though, you feel free
Speaker 3: to go ahead and place that one if you'd like.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to do it.
Speaker 4: I know the.
Speaker 3: Producers were like, oh, you guys should go on this together, Prince,
Speaker 3: that was promised this guys, I'm not putting bets on
Speaker 3: the record that I don't believe in. Now. We've been
Speaker 3: mediocre through four weeks, but we were barely keeping our
Speaker 3: head above water. What we need is a nice crisp
Speaker 3: four and one week. We go four and one and
Speaker 3: we're above five hundred on the year. Get the lock right.
Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe I should have put the Bears in there. Okay, no,
Speaker 5: I might have warmed up the old taste buds.
Speaker 3: Listen, I have not bet on the Bears every week.
Speaker 3: I have bet on games involving the Bears every week,
Speaker 3: but I'm taking this week off. So there it is.
Speaker 3: There's our Week five gambling show. Good luck everyone. Don't
Speaker 3: bet more than you can afford to lose, or in
Speaker 3: Devonse's case, don't bet at all, because it's very, very
Speaker 3: bad at this. All right, we'll see you guys next
Speaker 3: week