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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju us prow read.

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Speaker 3: Enough for running again, so smooth, so sweet, splendid sixteen

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Speaker 3: just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 4: The love is left to Wanda, wide eyed, drilled pibws.

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Speaker 3: How old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. MINA is Michael Leeboff joining me

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Speaker 1: as always are my friends and colleagues Anthony Dabundo, BJ Cunningham.

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Speaker 1: And before I bring those two guys in and we

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Speaker 1: break down the upcoming Premier League slate, take our stroll

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Speaker 1: around Europe, talk a little EFL Championship playoffs, give out

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Speaker 1: an underdog parlay two hundred and eighty three to one

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Speaker 1: this time, and then talk about our favorite bets in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League this weekend. A reminder that wonder Goal

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Speaker 1: is proudly presented by Bet three six five, the world's

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Speaker 1: is available in Colorado, New Jersey, and Ohio plus Virginia

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Speaker 1: and the United States. If you have a gambling problem,

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Speaker 1: please call or text one eight hundred gambler and always

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Speaker 1: remember to gamble responsibly. All right, let's start at eleven

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Speaker 1: thirty a kickoff on Sunday, title hopeful Arsenal minus one

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Speaker 1: thirty eight hosting Brighton plus three to fifty coming off

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Speaker 1: of a pantsing against Mighty everdon look out Brighton's plus

37
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Speaker 1: three fifty on the road. The draw is plus two eighty.

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Speaker 1: Here a couple things about this matchup. Obviously we can

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Speaker 1: talk about everyone knows the Arsenal situation. One point back

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Speaker 1: of City. They played one more game, then man City

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Speaker 1: has City right now sitting minus fourteen hundred to win

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Speaker 1: the league at Bet three six five Arsenal eight to one.

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Speaker 1: I do think this is an interesting matchup from the

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Speaker 1: Brighton perspective, though there're three and two in their last five.

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Speaker 1: They lost two of the last four matches. Obviously, the

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Speaker 1: Everdon match was ugly. The other loss in that bunch

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Speaker 1: was denying of Force wasn't all that pretty either, and

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Speaker 1: like they still have hopes to get top six. So

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Speaker 1: it's not like they're on the beach. I mean they're not.

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Speaker 1: They have an outside, outside, outside chance of gate crashing

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Speaker 1: top five or four. But there's like rumblings around the team.

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Speaker 1: This always happens with a team like Brighton. Alexis McCallister

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Speaker 1: looks to be honest, way to Liverpool. We don't know

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Speaker 1: about Deserbey, like what his situation is going to be

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Speaker 1: as the manager. So you do kind of wonder if

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Speaker 1: heads have been turned a little bit and maybe that's

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Speaker 1: started to show against Everton. We're it's this weird part

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Speaker 1: of the season. We talk about it in every sport,

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Speaker 1: in every regular season, whether it's American football, NHL soccer.

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Speaker 1: You know, that stuff kind of gets it does matter

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Speaker 1: a little bit. I don't know if that's what's happening

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Speaker 1: here with Branon. I'm willing to take the chance that

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Speaker 1: it's not. And I know that Arsenal, you know, they

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Speaker 1: need this win desperately. It's everything they need, every point

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Speaker 1: possible from their last few games here. But I think

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Speaker 1: that is causing this number to be a little high

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Speaker 1: on Arsenal. So I actually think Brighton despite that it

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Speaker 1: is where it's a shot like if they were the

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Speaker 1: favorite against the team, I wouldn't be laying it. I

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Speaker 1: woantn't trust them, but as an underdog, I have no

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Speaker 1: problem with it. We know how good this team is,

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Speaker 1: we know how well they can punch up against good teams,

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Speaker 1: and we know that Arsenal's defense has struggled for since Qatar.

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Speaker 1: So color me on the seagulls here, Anthony, what are

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Speaker 1: you thinking?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna wait a little bit closer to game

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Speaker 3: time before putting any wager down, but I certainly lean

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Speaker 3: toward Brighton and would play them with the current number.

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Speaker 3: I just think that there could be some leakage toward

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Speaker 3: Arsenal where I can get a better number closer to

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Speaker 3: kick off. We talk about these spots. I'm a little

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Speaker 3: surprised to see Arsenal this big of a favorite as well.

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Speaker 3: I only make Arsenal minus one twelve here, so I

84
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Speaker 3: was quite surprised to see a high although again like

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Speaker 3: you said, with the chasing the title tax, both Arsenal

86
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Speaker 3: and City are a bit inflated. This weekend matchup perspective

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Speaker 3: is a little bit concerning too. Arsenal didn't really play

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Speaker 3: well I thought against Newcastle. You know, they managed the

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Speaker 3: game better than they did in the previous meltdowns against

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Speaker 3: Liverpool and West Ham, but they weren't very good and

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Speaker 3: build up Newcastle kind of bullied them. From an XG

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Speaker 3: allowed perspective, I mean, Newcastle hits the post twice. I

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Speaker 3: think we're having a very different conversation if the first

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Speaker 3: one goes in or if the second one goes in

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Speaker 3: and the game is one to one just inside the

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Speaker 3: start of the second half from Estesax. So in terms

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Speaker 3: of threat created from live balls, I mean Arsenal's numbers

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Speaker 3: were pretty pretty down. They also got Newcastle in a

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Speaker 3: pretty favorable state where Newcastle's not a great play from

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Speaker 3: behind team, They're a much better front runner, so once

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Speaker 3: Arsenal was ahead, it kind of favored them, and they

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Speaker 3: still conceded about one and a half XG in the match,

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Speaker 3: So it wasn't entirely excellent performance. But Brighton, you know,

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Speaker 3: in there build it out from the back approach here.

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Speaker 3: They have problems with giving the ball away high and

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Speaker 3: it was a major issue against Everton. It was a

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Speaker 3: major issue against United in the match prior. United turned

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Speaker 3: them over high eleven times in that second meeting. So

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Speaker 3: the not the cup match, but the league match that

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Speaker 3: Brighton went on to win, and United was able to

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Speaker 3: get at them Arsenal's first and high turnovers. So this

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Speaker 3: this match screams a lot of back and forth. Even

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Speaker 3: if you go back to the last matchup, Arsenal went

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Speaker 3: up a quick two to oh on a lot of

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Speaker 3: really good high turnovers force then quick strike attack and

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Speaker 3: so that is a matchup thing that I'm a little

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Speaker 3: concerned about for the goals away from home, But just

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Speaker 3: from a pure power reading perspective, I definitely show value

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Speaker 3: on Brighton in that one.

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Speaker 1: BJ. I know where what you're gonna say in terms

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Speaker 1: of like an action will play here because you're not

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Speaker 1: going to bet against Arsenal your team even though they're

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Speaker 1: playing your other team in yeah, and they're chasing a title.

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Speaker 1: But if you could kind of separate that yeah for

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Speaker 1: a second, well, where you know, if this was if

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Speaker 1: you just switch the names from Arsenal to I don't know,

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Speaker 1: Chelsea or something. You'd be on brain here right.

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Speaker 4: Yes, but it would kind of concern me given the

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Speaker 4: way Brighton's been playing. And listen, I love Deerbey, we

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Speaker 4: all loved Deserbey. We love his style of play, but

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Speaker 4: it's a very very aggressive style of play. And the

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Speaker 4: matches against Everton and Nottingham Forest are the downsides of

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Speaker 4: that aggressive style of play where if you want to

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Speaker 4: bait a team into pressing you, well you have to

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Speaker 4: play through their press. If you if you turn the

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Speaker 4: ball over high, well that creates some really really good

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Speaker 4: transitional opportunities, which you know, Everton, who was a good

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Speaker 4: is not a good transition team.

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Speaker 2: But that's how they're set up to play.

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Speaker 4: Took advantage of it and they pummeled them, and that

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Speaker 4: is what can happen to like Brighton, and that's what

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Speaker 4: happened in the first meeting as well. So if Brighton's

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Speaker 4: going to play this uber aggressive style baiting, like Anthony mentioned,

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Speaker 4: the number one team in high turnovers forced in depressing

145
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Speaker 4: them and trying to play through them, it's a very

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Speaker 4: very dangerous game to play now from a market perspective,

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Speaker 4: like I have Arsenal round even money, So I would

148
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Speaker 4: not play the Gunners at this price at all. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean if I could separate it, like I probably

150
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Speaker 4: would be on Brighton in some fashion in this smash.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if I would pay the tax on

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Speaker 4: plus a half. I probably with Anthony and wait and see,

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Speaker 4: maybe get a better number closer to match time. But

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Speaker 4: I would also put out there you can find Arsenal

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Speaker 4: at nine to one or better to win the league.

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Speaker 2: I think it's worth a shot right now.

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Speaker 4: If you look at the run in that city has

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Speaker 4: going forward, it is much much more difficult than Arsenal.

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Speaker 4: If Arsenal gets all three points here against Brighton, Brighton

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Speaker 4: gets to a Maine City's got to go to Brighton,

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Speaker 4: they got to go to Brentford, they get to play

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Speaker 4: Chelse see whatever who.

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Speaker 2: Cares, and they gotta go to Everton this weekend. Michael, So.

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Speaker 4: You want to get a price at nine to one.

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Speaker 4: Five thirty eight has them at thirteen percent to win

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Speaker 4: the title. So Arsenal to win the league in nine

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Speaker 4: to one. Nine to one I believe has a little

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00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:16,280
Speaker 4: bit of value right now.

169
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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be shocked at both teams drop points. We

170
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Speaker 3: can kind of TRANSI stuff the next game, but I

171
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Speaker 3: think there's a good chance both teams drop points this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do that. Everton and City Everton eight to

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Speaker 1: one at home. Coming off of that.

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Speaker 4: Oh, here's here's a good would you rather, Michael? Would

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Speaker 4: you rather have Everton this weekend at eight to one

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Speaker 4: or Arsenal to win the league.

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Speaker 1: At eight to one Everton? That's City's I think I

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Speaker 1: think that both, like I think Anthony, Yeah, I guess

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Speaker 1: so Arley, But what Anthony just said, I think it's

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Speaker 1: kind of true. I think that we could see City

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Speaker 1: had this this match City and Everton at Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: you at nine am, you know, drop points a good

183
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Speaker 1: to some park and then everyone be like, oh my god.

184
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Speaker 1: Arsenal can put pressure on and then they they're playing

185
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Speaker 1: a really good team. Just because one of these teams

186
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Speaker 1: is in the title race and the other one isn't

187
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,440
Speaker 1: doesn't mean they're just gonna show up and win. They're

188
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Speaker 1: playing a really good team in Brighton.

189
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Speaker 3: I do wonder how the market would react because you

190
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Speaker 3: do see that idea.

191
00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,679
Speaker 2: I think, actually, with these must go to minus.

192
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Speaker 3: One sixty exactly, and at that point, I love Brighton

193
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Speaker 3: so that's why I'm kind of waiting, uh I regards, but.

194
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Speaker 1: Also at the other the Arsenal funny other like the

195
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Speaker 1: other way to look at it too, is like if

196
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Speaker 1: City City wins, and we'll be like, well, now Arsenal's

197
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Speaker 1: got to win or else they're done. I think you're

198
00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,280
Speaker 1: right though, just no matter what, I think, Arsenal's gonna

199
00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 1: take on some money. Uh as we get closer to

200
00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:40,080
Speaker 1: match time.

201
00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, you'll see, I'll play a little later once we

202
00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,120
Speaker 3: get this time of the year because you do see

203
00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,480
Speaker 3: more market steam on that on that tax, uh on

204
00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:50,839
Speaker 3: the must win tax as you get closer to game time.

205
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Speaker 1: Now.

206
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,640
Speaker 3: Sometimes, like other games, we're gonna talk about later it's

207
00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:55,560
Speaker 3: already to the point we're I bet it now. But

208
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Speaker 3: that case, I'm gonna wait when I want to go

209
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,360
Speaker 3: against it with here, I'm gonna play it early as

210
00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,640
Speaker 3: well sometimes because I think there could be some rotation

211
00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:07,680
Speaker 3: involved for Man City this weekend.

212
00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,760
Speaker 1: All right, So let's talk about that eight to one

213
00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,360
Speaker 1: on Everdon. Like I said, they're at home City minus

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Speaker 1: to seventy five, the traw plus three seventy five. I

215
00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,679
Speaker 1: was cracking up watching that Everton game on my couch

216
00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:29,000
Speaker 1: on Monday afternoon. The goal that Ducory scored what forty

217
00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,920
Speaker 1: five seconds into the match. I was kind of mad

218
00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:36,000
Speaker 1: because I was like, shit, like, they're gonna now just

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Speaker 1: sit on this and Brighton's gonna has incentive to be

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Speaker 1: even more aggressive and tear them apart. But it was

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Speaker 1: a masterclass from Sean dayshen Everton. I mean, everybody. Dwight

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Speaker 1: McNeil was unplayable, Calvert Lewin was incredible, Ducrey was awesome,

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Speaker 1: James Garner was terrific. Ghana looked like Atuso in the

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Speaker 1: middle of the park. It was an incredible performance. Then

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Speaker 1: it just makes you so Max. She's just like, where

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Speaker 1: has that been? Where has that been? Because they did it.

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Speaker 1: It's not like they did it to An on the Beach,

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Speaker 1: you know, Crystal Palace. They did it to one of

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Speaker 1: the better teams in the Premier League, Visa VI, one

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Speaker 1: of the better teams in Europe, and now they're eight

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Speaker 1: to one at home. I don't know how much this matters,

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Speaker 1: but they've given City some issues over the past couple

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Speaker 1: of seasons. They had an unlucky one zero loss where

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Speaker 1: they should have got a penalty late in the game

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Speaker 1: last season. Then they had the draw earlier this year,

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Speaker 1: and I think that kind of patient pressing we saw

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Speaker 1: from Everton against Brighton could work here again with City.

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Speaker 1: Now it's also a tough spot for City, right, You've

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Speaker 1: just they played Real Madrid to a one to one

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Speaker 1: in the Champions League in Spain. They come home or

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Speaker 1: come back to England, stay in the Northwest to take

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Speaker 1: on Everton, and then they got to be concerned about

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Speaker 1: that draw. I mean, I'm sure that Pep has kind

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Speaker 1: of ticked off that they weren't able to just whitewash

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid and he could kind of forget about the

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Speaker 1: second leg, and now it comes into play here. I

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Speaker 1: think there's just enough pointing to Evert in at the number. Right,

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Speaker 1: they're home, you know what that environment is going to

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Speaker 1: be like, you know what the effort from the team

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Speaker 1: is going to be like. And it's a tough spot

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Speaker 1: for City. I think this is a really tricky one

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Speaker 1: for City given all those kind of extenuating circumstances. So

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Speaker 1: I'll take Everton on the money line here, Anthony, what

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Speaker 1: do you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I like Everton. It's gonna make the same

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Speaker 3: bets I made for Monday's match I'm gonna take Everton

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Speaker 3: plus one and a half and I'm also gonna bet

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Speaker 3: Everton team total over a half to score. Look, I

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Speaker 3: think Pep made a comment before the match against Leeds

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Speaker 3: or after maybe about how multiple players ask for Rest

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Speaker 3: and he rotated through that team and they were pretty

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Speaker 3: good in the home win against Leeds. But no, it

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Speaker 3: wasn't a vintage City performance. Holland was a little off,

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Speaker 3: missed a couple of big chances, scored two goals from

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Speaker 3: outside the box, miss a pen. But overall, you know

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Speaker 3: they can see the lesson It created less than two

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Speaker 3: xg at home against Leeds. It's not a great showing,

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Speaker 3: and you know a lot of it was the rotated attackers.

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Speaker 3: I think they're going to rotate again. I don't think

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Speaker 3: they have a choice because he didn't make a single

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Speaker 3: sub in the game against Real Madrid, and those guys

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Speaker 3: in the last ten minutes were out of gas. I

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Speaker 3: mean they were clinging in the last ten minutes against

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Speaker 3: Real Madrid and they look spent at the end of it.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's hard for them to go again

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Speaker 3: Saturday on the road and then go again Wednesday against

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Speaker 3: Real Madrid. So I think Pep has no choice here

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Speaker 3: but to rotate. They do have enough of a cushion

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Speaker 3: that they can get away with it, and so I

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Speaker 3: think you're gonna see some Pep rotation. And what that

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Speaker 3: looks like is that Grealition and Debraun I think are

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Speaker 3: the first two names that he looks to rotate out.

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Speaker 3: And because of that, when Everton looks to press and

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Speaker 3: build up and you know, get after them, which I

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Speaker 3: think they're gonna do, they won't get as exposed when

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Speaker 3: City inevitably breaks through that press. And so you're gonna see,

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Speaker 3: you know, less of elite stuff from Grealish and to

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Speaker 3: Rona and worse players making those runs with the ball

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Speaker 3: and showing for space. And so I think that hurts

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Speaker 3: the City attack. Could see even like an hour of

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Speaker 3: Holland instead of ninety minutes, which certainly hurts the City attack.

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Speaker 3: So I think that there's a real chance here some

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Speaker 3: rotation that's not quite baked into the number, and you

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Speaker 3: could see it come down even further closer to the

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Speaker 3: game time.

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Speaker 1: BJA anything here, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I definitely like a look at both teams

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Speaker 4: to score. You know, there's still a plus one or

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Speaker 4: two out there. In the market, which I would grab

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Speaker 4: if I was anybody out there, And I think, yeah,

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Speaker 4: it alludes to what Anthony said.

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Speaker 2: I Everton's pressing, the way they were able to exploit.

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Speaker 4: Brighten in that build up play something that they can

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Speaker 4: give City with some big time problems there. And listen,

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Speaker 4: I agree with you. I think like this is a

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Speaker 4: bad spot for Manchester, toy They're gonna have to rotate guys.

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Speaker 4: They're also I mean have to rotate guys in defense,

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Speaker 4: and Pep has basically been playing all of his center backs.

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Speaker 4: So now we're going to get into a situation where

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Speaker 4: does Rico Lewis come in, does Kyle Walker come into

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Speaker 4: the team, And that is a little bit troublesome, especially

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Speaker 4: for City to be able to defend in transitional opportunities,

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Speaker 4: you know, with having all those center backs who can

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Speaker 4: actually play the ball at their feet well and also

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Speaker 4: helps them when they're defending in transition because they actually

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Speaker 4: can defend one on one as opposed to some of

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Speaker 4: those wingbacks.

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Speaker 2: So I agree.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I have both teams to score projected at

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Speaker 4: minus one fifteen, So if you know, if you can

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Speaker 4: get even money or better, I definitely think there's value

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Speaker 4: on that.

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Speaker 3: He I mean City hasn't played many away league matches

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Speaker 3: in a while. Somehow they have played one away league

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Speaker 3: match since April eighth. The schedule just kind of broke

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Speaker 3: for them when they had a bunch of home matches.

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Speaker 3: They had a make up home match, you know, so

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Speaker 3: they home to Leicester, home to Arsenal at Fulham, which

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Speaker 3: they were good not great in you know, Fulham without

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Speaker 3: any of their good attackers, home to west Ham, home

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Speaker 3: to Leeds. Now they're at Everton. It's a tricky spot

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Speaker 3: and I think that Everton's live here. This screams like

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Speaker 3: one to one late for me. Yeah, it finds the

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Speaker 3: winner or not. But I do like Everton at home.

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Speaker 4: And City has been getting a little sloppy with Leeds.

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Speaker 4: I mean, if you look through all these schedules, I

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Speaker 4: understand they only can see like half an expected goal

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Speaker 4: in like their last five matches. But you know, against

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Speaker 4: Leeds they scored in the eighty fifth minute. Fulham even

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Speaker 4: they able to score against them. Even the Matchkins Arsenal,

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Speaker 4: they had a sloppy leg goal to give up to

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Speaker 4: holding and then lester Are yeah yeah, and then against

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Speaker 4: Leicester they had a goal around the seventy fifth minutes.

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Speaker 4: So even you go back further than that, I mean

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Speaker 4: even Southampton support against Manchester City.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's they've conceded. They keep conceding time and

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Speaker 2: time again. So bad spot.

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Speaker 4: Good opportunity, Everton coming off their best offensive showing of

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Speaker 4: the season. Great spockt ball team to score.

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Speaker 1: It's funny to me when you you listen to podcasts

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Speaker 1: like ours, like cover sports from a betting perspective, and

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Speaker 1: then listen to something you know, more more mainstream, like

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Speaker 1: a football weekly or whatever. We're just it sounds like

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Speaker 1: we're just shitting on man City, Like I know, their job.

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Speaker 2: Is to pick for this match, and that's that's you know,

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Speaker 2: and that's boring.

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Speaker 3: Like, yeah, I do think City will win the match.

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Speaker 3: I'll say that I do too. Oh yeah, give me

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Speaker 3: even money, Yeah yeah, exactly right.

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Speaker 1: It would just circle in a yeah, in a Pickham contest.

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Speaker 1: But uh yeah, So we're we're trying to poke holes

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Speaker 1: in this team. I think they have. They've allowed one

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Speaker 1: or fewer in twenty three straight matches. I think Tottenham

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Speaker 1: in that four to two law win for City, was

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Speaker 1: the last team to score more than one against them.

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Speaker 3: So Tottenham also the last team to beat them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that was I think, what now we're over twenty.

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Speaker 3: Matches in January fifteenth or something like that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, across all competitions. I think it's like, you know,

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Speaker 1: twenty one twenty two matches. So what we're saying is

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Speaker 1: they're due and Everton plus eight hundred money line is

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Speaker 1: a good bet onto another relegation threatened club. Sam aller

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Speaker 1: Ditch's Leeds United. Here's how it sets up, Southampton propping

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Speaker 1: it up at twenty four points. I think we can

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Speaker 1: put a fork in them. Leads and Leicester are in

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Speaker 1: nineteenth and eighteenth place respectively, both on thirty points. Lester

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Speaker 1: ten goals better than Leads in terms of goal differential,

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Speaker 1: so that's where they're in eighteenth, Everdon thirty two points

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Speaker 1: and Forced thirty three. The thing is, though Force has

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Speaker 1: the worst goal differential, and likely we'll have the worst

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Speaker 1: goal differential by season's end compared to all teams in

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Speaker 1: the race, maybe save for Southampton. So this is a

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Speaker 1: huge one for Leeds and it's a tricky spot obviously

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Speaker 1: hosting Newcastle, who is a deserving road for favorite minus

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Speaker 1: one fifty Newcastle trying to wrap up top four spot.

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Speaker 1: They are on sixty five points, two points in third place,

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Speaker 1: two points ahead of United who are in fourth, and

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Speaker 1: three points and with a game in hand on Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: who were in fifth on sixty two. I've got nothing

390
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Speaker 1: here because I still don't really know what to expect

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Speaker 1: that of what Sam aller Dych can do with this

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Speaker 1: leads team. I know that they kind of were respectable

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Speaker 1: against City. They clawed one back, like BJ was saying.

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Speaker 1: City's been a little sloppy with leads, and they were

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Speaker 1: against Leeds and I would lean towards the Peacocks here,

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Speaker 1: but I don't find the number appealing. And as you've

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Speaker 1: already heard, I'm on two of them. I've got a

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Speaker 1: couple other underdogs in the slate that I like better

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Speaker 1: than Leeds United. So it could be a game that

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Speaker 1: just plays out pretty boring under Maybe Allerdice is able

401
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Speaker 1: to get them to grind out a point, but I

402
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Speaker 1: don't know if that's the mission either. So what do

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Speaker 1: you got here? BJ?

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Speaker 2: I do like Newcastle.

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Speaker 4: There's still a minus one thirty seven out there. I

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Speaker 4: wouldn't go above minus one forty five on them here.

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Speaker 4: And this is supposed to be an all time big

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Speaker 4: Sam spot right for Leeds get all three points, get

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Speaker 4: out of the drop zone.

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Speaker 2: But it's just a terrible matchup for them.

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Speaker 4: I said this in the last podcast, but Sam alla

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Speaker 4: Dyce's West Brom was allowing close to two expected goals

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Speaker 4: for ninety minutes from when he took over two years ago,

414
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Speaker 4: when that team was actually set up to play a

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Speaker 4: four to four to two or some type of defensive

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Speaker 4: low block. Leads is not We've been talking about that

417
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Speaker 4: for so long. Now, last ten matches they have conceded

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Speaker 4: twenty one expected goals and they are showing no sign

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Speaker 4: of improving their defense. City created two point six expected

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Speaker 4: goals against them. I understand there was a penalty in there,

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Speaker 4: it still wasn't that a good defensive showing. And it's

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Speaker 4: just the problem is is that even you look at

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Speaker 4: the Manchester City match, Leeds didn't press them.

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Speaker 2: They just sat.

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Speaker 4: They had a pass per defensive action of twenty five

426
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Speaker 4: point two an average defensive height of thirty four point

427
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Speaker 4: seven yards from the goal. That is not the leads

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Speaker 4: that we once knew. It's now Sam Allardice's leads. They

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Speaker 4: became incredibly direct in that match against Manchester City. They

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Speaker 4: didn't have one single ten plus pass sequence, which you know,

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Speaker 4: against a team like Manchester City, it's like it's not

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Speaker 4: like a you know, a cause for concern, But against

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Speaker 4: Newcastle that's a recipe for disaster because Newcastle is the

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Speaker 4: best transitional team in the Premier League and they play

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Speaker 4: a style that's very conducive into turning matches into end

436
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 4: to end style with their high pressing and then getting

437
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 4: forward and transitional opportunities. It's been so effective against the

438
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,679
Speaker 4: bottom half of the table. Newcastle is a plus twenty

439
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 4: four point four expected goal differential in seventeen matches and

440
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 4: ra averaging two point two eight expect goals per ninety minutes

441
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 4: leads against the top six teams this season minus twelve

442
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 4: point three expected goal differential in nine matches. So this

443
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 4: is I believe a very very bad matchup for them.

444
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 4: Given lead, if leads, is gonna play very direct, which

445
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 4: plays right into Newcastle's hands. So this one could really

446
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 4: get ugly for Leeds. So I like Newcastle and minus

447
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 4: one thirty seven yeah, and I play anything up to

448
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 4: minus one forty five.

449
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna disagree. Oh boy, I'm not gonna No,

450
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 3: I don't necessarily disagree on the fact that I'm betting Leads,

451
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 3: because I think that there's clearly like a tax big

452
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 3: get baked in here. But the matchup, like I would

453
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 3: rather against Newcastle not try to play out from the

454
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,919
Speaker 3: back against their press and play more direct over the

455
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 3: top of the press and sit deeper and dare them

456
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 3: to try to break me down, because Newcastle, if they

457
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 3: have a flaw, it's that when they've gone on the

458
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 3: road against some of these smaller teams, worst teams, they

459
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 3: don't commit a ton of numbers forward. Thus they don't

460
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 3: take a lot of risks and possession, and thus when

461
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 3: they don't get the high turnovers and teams do play

462
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 3: direct against them, they kind of just play out these stalemates.

463
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 3: And that's the case for an under here. Now it's ugly.

464
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 3: It's sitting at three maybe a first half under, because

465
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 3: once Newcastle does get a lead, they're very dangerous and

466
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 3: they're the best team in the league playing with the

467
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 3: lead this year, and that's not a great recipe if

468
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 3: Leads does go down and gets desperate, because they're gonna

469
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 3: need you know, at least a point here pretty much.

470
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 3: But I think that there's a world where sitting really

471
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 3: deep in compact and then trying to not trying to

472
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 3: play through a team, not trying to press them very

473
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 3: big Sammy, you know, root one style could slow Newcastle

474
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 3: down in a way and make them build up, make

475
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 3: them be the team that the aggressor, and make them

476
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 3: have more of the ball than they're used to having.

477
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: I mean, they're not a top four or five possession team,

478
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 3: so I actually think that that there's a recipe for

479
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 3: maybe a bit of a lower event game than we're

480
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 3: expecting now. Granted, Leads have been awful defensively really since

481
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 3: Marsh left. Grassia's disaster class has may end up getting

482
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,919
Speaker 3: them relegated, but I think that it's under or nothing

483
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 3: here for me, because I really think that this could

484
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 3: be a more interesting approach to slowing down Newcastle and

485
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 3: maybe scaling a point here.

486
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,479
Speaker 4: And that'd be great, but it's something we would talk

487
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 4: about forever as Leeds can't play a compact style defense effectively.

488
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 2: And I understand the new thing.

489
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:21,640
Speaker 3: They weren't bad against City doing it though they weren't Anthony,

490
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 3: come on, and that was on the road. They weren't

491
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 3: bad against City. I know, I know, but maybe it

492
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 3: was grassy as ideas they needed new ideas. But they

493
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,120
Speaker 3: did a decent job against City.

494
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 2: We'll see, Anthony.

495
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 1: Uh, I'm gonna try to do my best to tell

496
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 1: you to bet Spurs in this next one. I don't

497
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: understand it either. Billa plus one twenty at home Spurs

498
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 1: two two to one. Uh, the draws plus two sixty.

499
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 1: Spurs are on fire man?

500
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 2: And how are they a worse team than aston Villa?

501
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: Like, honestly, they're on a one match winning streak.

502
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 3: They have more talent, one match winning streak.

503
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: They just posted a clean sheet.

504
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 3: I don't think they're I think they're better than aston Villa.

505
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 1: So then why aren't you be right? I'm I'm on Spurs.

506
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 3: I like the under more.

507
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, well let's hear it.

508
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 3: I mean, I think aston Villa has really improved offensively.

509
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 3: I think we have to start giving them credit for that.

510
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 3: They've They've done a job in the last month after

511
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 3: some rough early performances under Emery. The attack is is

512
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 3: still not very good. They don't create much.

513
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 1: Uh.

514
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 3: Tottenham is not going to disrupt the defensive possession that

515
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 3: Emory wants at aston Villa. So I think this sets

516
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 3: up for a bit of a stalemate kind of match, again,

517
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 3: similar to the you know, the Fulham and even to

518
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 3: a lesser extent of United matches where you know, Villa

519
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 3: was in a very low scoring kind of dead affair

520
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 3: and then you know, if Spurs go ahead here, I

521
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 3: don't really trust them to hold the lead, which is

522
00:26:55,800 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 3: kind of my problem. Spurs goal keeper downgrade going from

523
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 3: the Reas to Foster is notable for me too. So

524
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 3: there's a few things that concern me about Tottenham. I

525
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 3: mean there are way performances in the last month have

526
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 3: been really bad, you know, getting embarrassed at Newcastle, not

527
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 3: showing up until halftime against Liverpool. Granted those opponents are

528
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 3: not nearly you know, are much better than much different

529
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 3: than Villa. But I think I like the under more

530
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 3: and of course it correlates to the dog. So if

531
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 3: I did have to bet this, I would take Tottenham.

532
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 3: But I think you're at the absolute floor of the

533
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 3: market on Tottenham and the peak of the market on Villa.

534
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 3: If you're buying Spurs here.

535
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's no, it's it's absolutely time to buy

536
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 4: Tottham here. I mean, what the market is telling you

537
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 4: right now is that aston Villa is a better team

538
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 4: than Tottenham and then they would be favored on a

539
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 4: neutral field.

540
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 2: I don't see that as the case at all.

541
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 4: I mean Tottenham, the performances have been better under Ryan

542
00:27:58,359 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 4: Mason is three matches in.

543
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 2: Charge, They've created five point four expected goals.

544
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 4: They've actually shown some life and compared to the dole

545
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 4: attacking and attitude under Antonio Conte. And here's the thing

546
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 4: for me, we've obviously talked about how much aston Villas

547
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 4: all performed since Unai Amory has took over aston Villa

548
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 4: on November first, their non penalty expected gold the French

549
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 4: the Premier League has been minus two point one. Tottenham

550
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 4: over that exact same time period has been minus point six.

551
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: So everything you think.

552
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 4: About aston Villa and how good they've got it and

553
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 4: now they've sent it up the table, they've actually been

554
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 4: ever so slightly worse than Tottenham over that same time period.

555
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 4: And I mean the previous match it was, you know,

556
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 4: one of aston Villa's great over performance games. They created

557
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 4: they scored two goals off a point seven expected totten,

558
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 4: them created an expected goal, didn't score.

559
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 2: It was kind of a doll match going both both ways.

560
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 4: Now, yeah, to Anthony's point, you know, aston Villa has

561
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 4: had success when they've been able to control possession, concede possession,

562
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 4: condensed the space between the two back lines, and then

563
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 4: be very dangerous in counter attacking opportunities. Well, I mean

564
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 4: Tomham is not going to press them high. They're not

565
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 4: going to let aston Villa have transitional opportunities to know,

566
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 4: They're gonna ask aston Villa to break them down, which

567
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 4: I do not trust assen Villa to do. So I

568
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 4: have this match projected right to pick them, So I

569
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 4: like Spurs plus a half them on this one forty five,

570
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 4: and I am picking them later in the show as well.

571
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 1: At Chelsea and Forrest. Now Chelsea minus two hundred and

572
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: ninety Forest five to.

573
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 3: One, Chelsea's back.

574
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: Chelsea is back in the Jaws plus three thirty three.

575
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: Like like Spurs, Chelsea on a one one match winning

576
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 1: streak here after a just dominant performance off of Born

577
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 1: With to keep to keep born With from leap frobbing

578
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 1: them in the In the table.

579
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 3: There were definitely a lot of people who had like

580
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 3: two to one Born with Money line at against Chelsea

581
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 3: and and then also we're running to the window to

582
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 3: bed Palace plus a half at Tottenham and it's like,

583
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 3: come on, you know, But I think it's a sign

584
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 3: that we're at the floor of both teams. They finally

585
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 3: get a win. Neither is getting a ton of market

586
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 3: respect here with the line. I mean, Chelsea closed minus

587
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 3: one at Forest in January. Now they're minus one in

588
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 3: a quarter at home. I know Chelsea's worse. I know

589
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 3: they don't care and the mismatch and motivation Forrest. If

590
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 3: you want to take a shot on the money line,

591
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 3: be my guest. But this Forest defense is still really

592
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 3: really bad, and I think Chelsea's going to get a

593
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 3: lot of looks up the wings. Forest defense in wide

594
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 3: areas is really not good, and so I think it's

595
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 3: gonna be a problem for them against all of the

596
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 3: Chelsea wingers, which is all of their town.

597
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 4: I mean, when you can see three point one expectacles

598
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 4: to Southampton, I don't care if you're playing for a

599
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 4: lead for the majority of the match.

600
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: That is very very embarrassing and very very concerning.

601
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 4: And yeah, like at home at home, and even if

602
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 4: Chelsea doesn't care, like there's no way you can bet

603
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 4: Nottingham Forest at this number. So this is an easy pass.

604
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it would be forced or nothing if

605
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: you're like you're trying to play.

606
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 3: Because yeah, it's a fun money line shot. Yeah, I

607
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 3: don't want like plus one and a quarter is not appealing.

608
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:08,959
Speaker 1: No, no, But if you if you're gonna do it,

609
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: just play the money line. But because I don't know

610
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 1: how you can bet Chelsea here or I bet Forrest

611
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: if they go down or something, it's it's just naughty

612
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: to want to get involved with Chelsea at this night, to.

613
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 3: Be tempted at Forrest when I one, now, i'd be

614
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 3: very tempted to lie bet Chelsea. I will say, yeah,

615
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 3: we'll see uh.

616
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: Palace and Bourn with a bea beach bowl here Palace

617
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,479
Speaker 1: minus won eighteen at home Born with three to one

618
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: on the road and the draw is plus two sixty.

619
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: I think like this one is so easy to just

620
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: kind of skip over. So if do you guys have

621
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: anything here? If not, I think we can just move on. Yeah.

622
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 3: I think this is a more of a point I

623
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 3: want to make about kind of how these matches tend

624
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 3: to go. When you do get a beach bowl with

625
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 3: two teams who don't really care, you will see the

626
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 3: market juice the total upward because the studies and the

627
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 3: trends and the history shows that as games become less

628
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 3: meaningful for both teams, goals go up, defending goes down.

629
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: Teams aren't willing to put the extra tackle in. They

630
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 3: want to play, you know, more open. You know it's

631
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 3: not as important, Conceding isn't as damaging, and you're seeing

632
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 3: that in the number. I mean, I don't think we

633
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 3: would have gotten a Palace Boardmuth two and a half

634
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 3: slight juice to the over a month ago. And so

635
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 3: I think, you know, the market markets areware of the trend.

636
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 3: It could be an opportunity to play like an alt

637
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 3: over if you want to have some fun. Palace just

638
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 3: played a four to three thriller with west Ham. Bournemouth

639
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,959
Speaker 3: had a pretty back and forth affair as well, so

640
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 3: certainly a way to potentially go at it, but nothing here.

641
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 1: United and Wolves United is a chunky favorite. Excuse me

642
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: United hosting Wolves unit Chunky minus two seventy five, Wolves

643
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: plus six fifty the jaw plus three seventy five. This

644
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 1: seems like a pretty much a letdown spot for Wolves

645
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: that they get to forty points with the win over

646
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 1: Villa and a Darby one nil. They scored that goal

647
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: in like what a third minute or something. Could be

648
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: a pretty easy left down spot, especially with United looking

649
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: to wrap up top four and coming off of back

650
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: to back one nil losses. This is a really big

651
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: spot for United and it feels like there's a bit

652
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: of that baked into the line that. But you know,

653
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: if you wanted to bet United, I would just like

654
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 1: go minus two and a half or something because I

655
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 1: could see it being one way traffic. It is interesting

656
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 1: here though, that if you look the top five goal

657
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: different just by gold differential Sit plus fifty eight, Arsenal

658
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: plus forty four, Newcastle plus thirty two, Manchester United plus eight.

659
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 1: So what is this team this season? They've They've been

660
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: all over the place. I'll be passing here. You two

661
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: are on the same page, though I would kind of

662
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,760
Speaker 1: tend to disagree with both of you. I could see

663
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,240
Speaker 1: United kind of just carrying this thing over the total

664
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: on their own beach. We'll start with you.

665
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, like under two and a half plus one thirty.

666
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 4: I think it's vastly inflated total given the style of

667
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 4: both these teams. You know, Eric ten Hog, we've talked

668
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 4: a lot about how when they play bigger sides, United

669
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 4: has become very direct and they're very dangerous in those

670
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 4: type of opportunities. But when they play sides like Wolves,

671
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 4: he demands that they play out of the back and

672
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 4: that has come with varied success throughout the season because

673
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 4: you know, Dehea is terrible at the ball at his feet,

674
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 4: and lately they've been without their best two starting center backs,

675
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 4: barn and Losandra Martinez, who are both very good in

676
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 4: build up play. So some teams like Sevilla or Newcastle

677
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 4: have given Manchester United a lot of problems when they

678
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 4: disrupt their build up play. Well, Wolves is not that team.

679
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 4: Their twelfth opponent build up completion percentage allowed, the thirteenth

680
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 4: and pass per defensive action, and fifteenth in high turnovers.

681
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 4: And the last time they faced Manchester United they did

682
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 4: do a decent job of pressing them, which caused United

683
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 4: to play a little more direct than they wanted to.

684
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 4: But that you know, that could be the case in

685
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 4: this meeting. But the reality is Wolves is just not

686
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 4: good enough offensively to really threaten the United back line.

687
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 2: I mean, this season, Wolves.

688
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 4: Are only averaging point nine to two non penalty expected

689
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 4: goals per not in minutes. I mean it's just the

690
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 4: same conversation every single week, like they are seventh and

691
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 4: final third entries, like that's very impressive, and then they

692
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 4: just do absolutely nothing with it.

693
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 2: I mentioned it last week.

694
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 4: The quartet striking strikers of Huang Costa, Kunya and Menez

695
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 4: have scored five goals all season, Like that's just embarrassing.

696
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 2: And Wolves loves to.

697
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 4: Build another back, puts a premium on defensive possession rather

698
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 4: than playing direct. They lead the Premier League in touches

699
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 4: in their own penalty area and final thirds. So I

700
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 4: don't know, good luck trying to break down United with

701
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,280
Speaker 4: that strategy. I only have two point six goals projected,

702
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 4: so I think this is inflated total select utter two

703
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 4: and a half goals of plus one thirty.

704
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll just add that. You know, we talked. I

705
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 3: think I've been a broken record about United the attack

706
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 3: being way too reliant on Marcus Rashford, and when you

707
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 3: look at that, they were held scoreless at Sevilla, they

708
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 3: were held scoreless for an hour, for one hundred and

709
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 3: twenty minutes against Brighton, they got two against Spurs, one

710
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 3: against Villa, and now have been blanked in their last

711
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 3: two games, so that's three goals and six matches United.

712
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 3: Rashford has cooled from his hot run of finishing and

713
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 3: as a result, this attack has not been very good

714
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 3: and so you know you're seeing the problem with that.

715
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,439
Speaker 3: And even the two goals they did score of those

716
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 3: three came in transitions. You know, the Spurs match and

717
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 3: Wolves are not going to commit numbers forward and not

718
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 3: going to take chances. Now this is like a beachy effort,

719
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 3: so you know, maybe they get rolled. Certainly possible, But

720
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 3: I agree with BJ.

721
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 4: The previous total in the previous meeting in January closed

722
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 4: two and a half flat. You want to have flat

723
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 4: minus one ten And if you look, I mean, you

724
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 4: know Rashford didn't play if United, so I mean you

725
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 4: could maybe make the case, but he's not worth forty

726
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 4: cents to the total difference between the two.

727
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 2: So what's really changed between that time. Not a whole lot.

728
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 3: It's the beach tax.

729
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:38,760
Speaker 2: It's the beach tax.

730
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 1: That's right. Southampton and Fulham next, like I said, Saints

731
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 1: need a miracle there plus one eighty at home, Fulham

732
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 1: plus one forty five traveling down to the South coast

733
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:51,759
Speaker 1: and the draw plus two thirty, I would says it's

734
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 1: Southampton but nothing here. Poem's got nothing to play for,

735
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 1: banged up and and I feel like sometimes you see

736
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: that this like little dead count dead cat bounce from

737
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 1: a team that's been relegated or has essentially been relegated.

738
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: And you could see it here from from Saints who

739
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: will say that you know they're not out of it

740
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 1: a win and then you know if they go three three,

741
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 1: oh and oh, put them at thirty three points in

742
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 1: they'll they'll maybe finish in nineteenth instead of twentieth. Anything

743
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 1: from you guys here Anthony, Saints and Cottagers.

744
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the Saints at home as a dog.

745
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 3: I was surprised to see that given the spot. I

746
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 3: thought we'd get attacks on them and then I wouldn't

747
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 3: be able to bet them. It's not like I want

748
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 3: to bet them, but I will hear. Like BJ mentioned,

749
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 3: I was impressed by the attack. They were the better

750
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 3: team against Nottingham Forrest through large trenches of that match,

751
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 3: even in the you know, you can say Nottingham Forest

752
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 3: led the whole way, but even in the one zero

753
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 3: exchanges when Forrest was leading, I thought they were better.

754
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 3: You can take out the penalty. It was you know,

755
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 3: over three x G or just under three x G

756
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 3: to just under one for Forrest. It shows me that

757
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 3: they haven't quit. And so now I come home against Fulham,

758
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 3: who I I'm pretty sure we'll have Mitrovich back, but

759
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 3: what's the fitness look like for Metrovich it's a big

760
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 3: question mark. Southampton decent against Crosses too, so that's a

761
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 3: helpful against Fulham in this defense. This Fulham defense continues

762
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 3: to be poor. I think maybe the worst bet I

763
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 3: made all year was the Fulham lester under on Monday.

764
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 3: That was real badja.

765
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 1: You're you're seeing a similar tune here.

766
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna target you know, Southampton's team

767
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 4: total over one and a half, which you can get

768
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 4: up plus one fifty. I'm not even gonna worry about

769
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 4: the defense. You know, to echo Anthony's point, you know,

770
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:53,919
Speaker 4: sell Us made a change. He went from a four

771
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 4: four two to a four to two three one. Allowed

772
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 4: them to quit, more numbers forward and attack, gave them

773
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:02,919
Speaker 4: new life obviously created over the reexpected goals and going

774
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:06,919
Speaker 4: up against a defense like Fulham, who I mean, listen,

775
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:08,919
Speaker 4: they've overperformed all season long, they've been.

776
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 2: One of the worst in the Premier League.

777
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 4: I know there were two penalties, but lesser created two

778
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 4: point eight expected goals in that match, even though Fulham

779
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 4: was defending a huge lead for a majority of that match.

780
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 4: It just kind of goes to show you that, you

781
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 4: know Tim Reim, whatever you think of him, you know,

782
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 4: as a defender. Obviously he's you know, had an outstanding

783
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 4: season in the Premier League. But if a thirty four

784
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 4: year old Tim Reim was holding up this defense basically

785
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 4: by himself and we see what happens without him, Like,

786
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 4: there's no reason why Southampton can't create two or two

787
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 4: and a half expected goals in this match. So I

788
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 4: do have Southampton projected for one point four to four goals,

789
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 4: so over one and a half at plus one fifties

790
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 4: good enough for me.

791
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 1: Renford and west Ham, this one's not not officially a

792
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 1: beach bowl. West Ham they'll probably say they have a

793
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 1: little bit more work to do one more point to

794
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 1: basically guarantee themselves survival. They are plus two seventy five

795
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 1: on the road Brentford and even money home favorite London Derby.

796
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I know, we we don't really think of

797
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:23,800
Speaker 1: Brentford as a team that would be on the beach.

798
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 1: Pretty lack luster against Liverpool though they did hold them

799
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:33,799
Speaker 1: just to one. Nothing really yeah, nothing really uh For

800
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:38,280
Speaker 1: me here, I think it's a it's just the numbers

801
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 1: not not there for west Ham to go against Brentford

802
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 1: and they play so well at the Brentford Community Stadium.

803
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 1: B J, you're passing to Anthony, you do have a

804
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:49,240
Speaker 1: couple of thoughts.

805
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I just don't know what west Ham's gonna

806
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 3: look like come Sunday. They have a Europe up, a

807
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 3: Conference League ty Thursday or recording before that. I would

808
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 3: expect some roche because they can't quite clench it, but

809
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 3: like at thirty seven with three teams behind them, like

810
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 3: it would take a real miracle. And I think Moyes

811
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 3: could could prioritize the Conference League beause they have a

812
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 3: chance to be in Europe next year despite their bottom

813
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 3: five finish in the league. And so until we know,

814
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 3: like Rice soup check Antonio, like that's important to me.

815
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 3: I like both teams to score if they play their

816
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 3: main guys. Though I think that this total is too

817
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 3: low and west Ham's attack has been quietly very good

818
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,439
Speaker 3: for the last month they've been running really well, performing well,

819
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 3: finally figuring some things out, taking more chances, which they

820
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 3: could do in this matchup as well, given the nature

821
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,399
Speaker 3: of it. So it's nothing for me now, but we'll

822
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,720
Speaker 3: be looking to potentially play that as we get closer.

823
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: Leicester City is four to one Rinsey rapeat another must

824
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: want spot for a team in a relegation battle team

825
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: in a relegation spot. They are hosting Liverpool minus one

826
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 1: eighty two of the tries plus three twenty. I think

827
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 1: that if you were to play this match in any way,

828
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 1: I would just back, like over a touchdown or something like.

829
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 1: It feels like this could be five to two, yeah

830
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: or something. It's square, but that less the less are

831
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: you kidding me? Like with yeah, with what's going on

832
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 1: with Lester's defense, they just they just I mean they

833
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:26,479
Speaker 1: just had a five to three against Fullham. Everdence should

834
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 1: have had five against them. It's is uh but they

835
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 1: could score. I mean they I don't see how any

836
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 1: other way but to play. I also feel like it's

837
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,240
Speaker 1: a it's a nightmare stylistic matchup for them against the Liverpool.

838
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:45,280
Speaker 1: Like so I think the both teams could be fishing

839
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 1: multiple goals balls out of their net here, and I

840
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 1: do think Liverpool kind of maybe could name their score

841
00:43:56,200 --> 00:44:00,800
Speaker 1: in this one. So alternate totals for me if anything,

842
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 1: or like put together a lottery tickets same game parlay

843
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: with goalscorers and totals or whatever. What do you have EJ.

844
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna square it out and go over three

845
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 4: and a half at plus one thirty Dean Smith. Yeah,

846
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 4: the defense has been really bad, like he's playing very

847
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 4: very open style, playing a ton of attackers.

848
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 2: But hey, the offense has been good. Like credit where

849
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: credits do? I mean?

850
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 4: Lester has created thirteen expected goals and ten big scoring

851
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 4: chances in his five matches in charge. That's very very

852
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 4: impressive considering where they were. And you know, he hasn't

853
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 4: really changed the formation of the concept of what Lester's doing.

854
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 4: It's still a four two three one. But you know,

855
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 4: I've mentioned this before, but having Teeleman's and Madison and

856
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 4: all of their attackers I understand Ianacho's out, but having

857
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 4: all their attackers available really really helps, especially for ball progressions.

858
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 4: So it's a good spot here for Lester. You know,

859
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 4: Liverpool obviously the storyline continually every single week is when

860
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 4: the invert Trent Alexander are Arnold in the middle of

861
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 4: the pitch. It's brought new life to their offense. They've

862
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 4: been created seventeen point five expected goals in the six

863
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 4: matches in which they've done that. But I mean, I

864
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:12,800
Speaker 4: understand Brentford. You know the XG and Brentford only created

865
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 4: point two. I mean they had a couple golden opportunities

866
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,879
Speaker 4: that got called off by far and off sides, and

867
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 4: it could have Liverpool could have very easily conceded to

868
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 4: Brentford given their high line that they were playing, and

869
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 4: Lister definitely has the attackers to be able to exploit

870
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 4: that high line. So I agree with you, Michael. This

871
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 4: has just openness written all over it. So I'm gonna

872
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 4: square out and take over three and a half at

873
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 4: plus one thirty.

874
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,280
Speaker 3: If Liverpool got to seventy one and won their last

875
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:47,359
Speaker 3: three matches, I think they might just get top four.

876
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 3: They're only plus one eighty two to one at some books.

877
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 3: Seventy one is not out of the question. They played Liverpool,

878
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 3: they play Lester away Villa home, Southampton away. They'll ought

879
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 3: to be relegated. I would be. I would expect them

880
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 3: to take probably like seven points because they're not that good.

881
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 3: But it's not out of the question that they could

882
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 3: go on the run and then they would only need

883
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 3: United to drop points in two of their last four

884
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 3: to be in the mix there and to get it. Really,

885
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 3: two wins and two draws would be enough. United has

886
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:24,240
Speaker 3: that FA Cup, but they also have Chelsea Fulham Wolves

887
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 3: at home, Bournemouth away. It's not out of the question

888
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:28,399
Speaker 3: for top four to fall.

889
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 1: All right, that's the Premier League done and dusted, while

890
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: we visit it at the end of the show with

891
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 1: our favorite bets, maybe some underdogs that we like in there.

892
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 1: But now we move on to the Bundesliga and now

893
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:42,919
Speaker 1: we move on to Anthony, who's ready to break down

894
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 1: some German soccer for us. First.

895
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, sometimes you see these inflated totals and sides

896
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 3: and you bet into it. You know. Last weekend Wolfsburg

897
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 3: closed three and a half against dortmun total. I was like,

898
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 3: that's too high, so I bet the under and end

899
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,439
Speaker 3: six nol. You know that will happen. Sometimes the team

900
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 3: doesn't show up, they don't care, and you look like

901
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 3: an idiot, which I definitely did on Sunday. But there

902
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 3: are other times when it's time to put your foot

903
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,280
Speaker 3: down and say enough is enough. As BJ would say, yep,

904
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 3: glodboch catching two goals as high as nine to one.

905
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 3: Now we only get those lines once a year, not

906
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 3: even twice. Once, and it's when they go to Byron.

907
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 3: And my buddy texted me and was like, saw you

908
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 3: put the bed in on glod Bach. Assumed they were

909
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 3: playing Byron again. No they're not. They're playing Dorman. I

910
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:42,319
Speaker 3: mean it's look, I know the whole need to win thing,

911
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 3: but this is like kind of a local rivalry. It's

912
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 3: a big match for Glodbach, a chance to play spoiler.

913
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 3: Like I don't think they're just gonna know show and

914
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 3: so if they show up, I mean they shouldn't be

915
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 3: two go underdogs, it shouldn't be nine to one. So

916
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 3: there's no other analysis required. I trust my foals. We've

917
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 3: had our folds to the finish before. But look, they

918
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 3: put in a good effort against Bochum and just last

919
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 3: week against bocam H they were closed up. Even money,

920
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 3: I'll take the discount. I mean, that's a ridiculous number.

921
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 3: And so you know, and that was in a bad

922
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 3: motivational spot right gold box. Season's over, Bochum's fighting for survival.

923
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:20,839
Speaker 3: Flaudbach was the clearly better team. So I know we're

924
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:23,399
Speaker 3: going on the road, but I mean we already beat

925
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,720
Speaker 3: Dortmann this year. We've already beaten Leipzig. We've already beaten Bayern.

926
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 3: We drew Bayern. Up the foles, baby, it's a fulls weekend.

927
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 1: Bj what a what do you have for us in Germany? Yeah?

928
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 4: This is a huge match. Union Berlin hosting Freburg. Both

929
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 4: are tied on fifty six points for fourth and fifth

930
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 4: place will essentially decide, you know, unless life six slips up,

931
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 4: who is gonna get the champions like spot, either Union

932
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 4: Blin or Freiburg. Uh and I like Freiburg plus a half.

933
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 4: You can find it at minus one forty. I mean

934
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 4: we already know this story with Unjan Blynn, I don't

935
00:48:58,680 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 4: need to say it every single week.

936
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:01,799
Speaker 2: It's long balls up the pitch, the two.

937
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,360
Speaker 4: Strikers get the ball out wide swinging crosses, take advantage

938
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 4: of set piece opportunities. They've overperformed drastically on set pieces

939
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:11,400
Speaker 4: this season. They've scored fifteen off of six point seven expected.

940
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 4: Freiberg has actually allowed the fewest set piece goals of

941
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:17,239
Speaker 4: anybody in the Bundesliga, and Freiberg actually sets up very

942
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 4: similar to that of what Unjan Berlin is. They're also

943
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 4: very very reliant on set pieces as well. They actually

944
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 4: lead the Bundesliga with sixteen set piece goals and our

945
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:29,240
Speaker 4: top five and xt cheaper set piece and Christian Streich,

946
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:32,720
Speaker 4: who's been at Freiberg for over ten years, he switched

947
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 4: their formation in the last few matches back to his

948
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 4: patented four to two to two two to make it

949
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 4: very very narrow, which is kind of helpful against Uyan Berlin,

950
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 4: who plays the three five to two like trying to

951
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:45,879
Speaker 4: compact the middle of the pitch, so committing that many

952
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:48,479
Speaker 4: people in the middle maybe helps them, you know, break

953
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,320
Speaker 4: down that defense. But I mean, these are two teams

954
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 4: that play a very very slow style, even though it

955
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 4: is incredibly direct and the previous meeting, Michael, you'll love this.

956
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 4: Here's the box score won the match for to one.

957
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:05,359
Speaker 4: There were seven total shots between the two teams. Four

958
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 4: of those shots were penalties, so there were three shots

959
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:12,879
Speaker 4: from open play against these two teams. So uh, I mean,

960
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:15,319
Speaker 4: this has honestly has draw like written all over it.

961
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:17,600
Speaker 4: But I mean, I'll I'll take the price on Freiburg

962
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 4: plus I have at minus one.

963
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,720
Speaker 1: Forty hunt Syria?

964
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 3: What is what is under a half.

965
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 2: Six to one?

966
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 1: Who?

967
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 3: I'll say un Yungberlin doesn't need to win, I draw,

968
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 3: they hold the goal difference edge. I think he would,

969
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 3: Uh think Fisher would sign up for a no, No,

970
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:38,919
Speaker 3: he would?

971
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,360
Speaker 4: What is who does Unya Blin finish with Unyong and

972
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 4: blind finishes with Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen two?

973
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, uh, let's talk Siria on now and we'll

974
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 1: start with uh bj looking at it under and so

975
00:50:55,840 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 1: swallow and inter Who I mean? I I was pretty

976
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: close to jumping into the Syria at waters here with

977
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: a play on to swallow. Given the yeah, the spot

978
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:06,799
Speaker 1: on it, there is.

979
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 2: Maybe one of Yeah.

980
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 1: Is there a bigger letdown spot like across the European

981
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 1: soccer calendar than this one?

982
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they're definitely a huge letdown spot. The

983
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,800
Speaker 4: problem with all these Italian teams they're all still battling

984
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 4: for top four, so they have to take these matches seriously,

985
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:25,520
Speaker 4: like they can't just be on the beach like some

986
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 4: of these teams, you know, like a like a real

987
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 4: Madrid who can just focus on.

988
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:30,240
Speaker 2: The Champions League.

989
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:32,359
Speaker 4: And you know, I'm gonna go for the under three

990
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 4: goals in minus one twenty. I mean, like you said,

991
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 4: it's a sandwich spot, a letdown spot, whatever you wanna

992
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 4: call it. So Swallow has underachieved defensively this season. They've

993
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 4: allowed fifty goals off forty three expected. They've been much

994
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 4: better recently, only eight expected goals in their last allowed

995
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 4: in their last eight matches. And I mean their defensive

996
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 4: metrics for the season are very very average, but they

997
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 4: have allowed the sixth fewest final third entries in Syria

998
00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 4: A because they like to.

999
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 2: Play a high line.

1000
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 4: They like to press opponents when they cross the halfway

1001
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 4: line enter. You know, we know the story with them,

1002
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:04,359
Speaker 4: very very good defensive teen only allowing point eight non

1003
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 4: penalty expected goals for ninety minutes. Has been a good

1004
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 4: transitional defense. And inter has also been very very good

1005
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 4: at playing with leads. You saw that against AC Milan

1006
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 4: today in Syria. They're only allowing point eighty seven expected

1007
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:17,759
Speaker 4: goals per minute. Has been playing through with a lead.

1008
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:21,799
Speaker 4: So Swallow is basically transition or nothing. Their second and

1009
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:25,760
Speaker 4: progressive pass and dribbles second and final third to penalty

1010
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 4: box entry conversion rate, but only eighth and non penalty

1011
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:32,240
Speaker 4: expected goals. In the previous meeting, Inter held to swallow

1012
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 4: to one point two expected goals on fifteen shots. So

1013
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 4: with this being a sandwich spot with Inter being more

1014
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 4: focused on the Champions League, I like the value and

1015
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:43,719
Speaker 4: the under a only have two point five eight goals projected.

1016
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:45,919
Speaker 1: Anthony, what do you think?

1017
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Juventus is one of the teams that's

1018
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 3: relatively safe for the top four. They have a five

1019
00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 3: point gap with four to play on me.

1020
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:57,920
Speaker 4: Leng Well, you say that, and then ye fifteen pointer

1021
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 4: comes in at the end of the season when they

1022
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 4: when they win the Europa League, then the fifteen point

1023
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:03,920
Speaker 4: deduction comes in.

1024
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 2: They say, oh yeah, yeah, you're right, you caught us.

1025
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 3: We and then Italy can sneak another team and the

1026
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:13,960
Speaker 3: champion exactly is very possible and you know it would

1027
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:17,920
Speaker 3: be interesting for sure. They play kremin Essay. This is

1028
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 3: a very similar spot to like two weeks ago. Kremen

1029
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 3: Essay was plus one and a half and team total

1030
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 3: over in Milan against a C Milon and I bet

1031
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 3: them there and I like them in this spot again.

1032
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 3: They're an attack that has started to trend upward. I

1033
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 3: know that they have. You know, they're fighting off relegation here.

1034
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 3: It's not looking like they're gonna get out, but they've

1035
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,399
Speaker 3: underperformed an attack by quite a bit all season long.

1036
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 3: They have the lowest finishing conversion rate in Syria of

1037
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 3: their chances, and they're facing the team that's been the

1038
00:53:47,200 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 3: luckiest defense in all of damn near all of Europe

1039
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,920
Speaker 3: at this point with Chesney's shot stopping. They don't press,

1040
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 3: they don't They let you walk into the final third

1041
00:53:55,640 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 3: literally and then hope you don't score. And it's worked

1042
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:01,360
Speaker 3: all year. But it's a tight rope. And I like

1043
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:04,920
Speaker 3: Krevin Essay to score desperate on the road. So I

1044
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 3: like them, and I like plus one and a half

1045
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 3: could season rotation from Juve in the middle of their

1046
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 3: Europa League with Syvia as well.

1047
00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: A La Liga BJ You'll love this, Michael, I know,

1048
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 1: I see it.

1049
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 2: I saw s when all.

1050
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 4: Of you think Diego Simeoni, is this some archtaic manager

1051
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 4: who only likes to play defensive blocks. See how one

1052
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 4: nil wins? Oh, he goes back to school and he

1053
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 4: turns Athletico into an offensive juggernaut Athletico what he what

1054
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 4: he's done? Not playing a four to four to two anymore,

1055
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 4: he switched them to a five to three to two.

1056
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:45,400
Speaker 4: He's played Yannic Carrasco and Marcus Jurente as wingbacks to

1057
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:49,239
Speaker 4: give Athletico more attacking options in wide areas, free up

1058
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 4: some space for Greaseman and Maratza in the middle of

1059
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 4: the pitch. Since that switch in formation, Athletico has scored

1060
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 4: twenty eight goals in ten matches and are averaging two

1061
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 4: point one eight expected goals per under this new formation.

1062
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 4: So going up against the worst defensive team in Spain

1063
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 4: in Elcha, who is already been relegated, is just a

1064
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:10,280
Speaker 4: perfect scenario for goals. L Cha is allowing one point

1065
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:13,440
Speaker 4: eighty six expected goals per match this season, which is

1066
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:16,280
Speaker 4: by far the worst mark in Spain. Against top four teams,

1067
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 4: they've allowed sixteen point seven expected goals and seven matches,

1068
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 4: and Mi, like Anthony previously mentioned, you know it's not

1069
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:25,759
Speaker 4: just solely for the Premier League, it's throughout all of

1070
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:28,239
Speaker 4: Europe when teams have already been relegated. I really have

1071
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:30,919
Speaker 4: nothing to play for our team like Elcha, especially who

1072
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:34,080
Speaker 4: they're going to become incredibly aggressive, not really care about

1073
00:55:34,080 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 4: their defending. They're going to try to score, you know,

1074
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 4: and potentially get a good result here against Athletico. But

1075
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 4: I have three point three goals projected for this match,

1076
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 4: so I like over three goals at plus one fifteen.

1077
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 4: And I look forward to having our conversation on next

1078
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:49,359
Speaker 4: year's Champions League pot about let it coach twenty five

1079
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:50,760
Speaker 4: to one to win the Champions League.

1080
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 2: I look forward to it.

1081
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:54,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't remember. Why haven't we been talking about

1082
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,839
Speaker 3: them this spring in Europe? I'm blanking on were they

1083
00:55:57,840 --> 00:55:58,240
Speaker 3: in Europe?

1084
00:55:58,280 --> 00:55:58,600
Speaker 1: This year?

1085
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 3: I got screwed, finished dead last in a group that

1086
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 3: included Club Bruges, Bayer Lever and a fourth team of

1087
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 3: which I'm forgetting Porto Porto yea European giants in that group.

1088
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:14,839
Speaker 2: I just needed to switch the formation. Now we're back.

1089
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 1: They were expent from It's fine, it's not you can't

1090
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 1: win it every year and they never Actually, yeah, they

1091
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 1: can't win it, you know. It's Simoni uh Anthony. Another

1092
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 1: kind of interesting spot similar to the swallow inter one

1093
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 1: with targeting and real Madrid match here.

1094
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, this number has moved a little bit now, but

1095
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 3: I don't expect Vinnie or but ben someone to play much.

1096
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:48,320
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be rotated, locked up top four,

1097
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 3: not really needing this gutafe happy to play out a

1098
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 3: slog of a match, but but really the real backup

1099
00:56:56,640 --> 00:57:00,360
Speaker 3: attackers are not nearly as good, and especially the potential

1100
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,040
Speaker 3: wrestling of Venetias and Benzima. Benzama's minutes have been managed

1101
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 3: all year. Venetius is like the best player in the world,

1102
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 3: apparently based on ball progression numbers at least uh so

1103
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 3: and shooting from thirty yards.

1104
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 2: But uh, I sound convinced.

1105
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:17,240
Speaker 3: I like the under I mean, I love Vinnie, but

1106
00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 3: people have been comparing him to Himappa this week and

1107
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 3: I'm like, come on, let's let's let's get a grip

1108
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:23,959
Speaker 3: here and Neymar as well. Apparently he's better than Nymar.

1109
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 3: Now hmm, I don't agree with that. I mean, certainly

1110
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:32,960
Speaker 3: this year, but overall, I don't you no real topic.

1111
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 1: Just for fun before we move on to uh the

1112
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 1: Championship playoffs, Wich PJ guidus through real quick. If you

1113
00:57:41,520 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 1: wanted to play a a letdown spot for like parlay

1114
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 1: or round robin, meaning you go against the Champions League

1115
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:56,400
Speaker 1: semi finalists with Everton against City, Spetsia against AC Milan,

1116
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 1: Swallow against Inter and uh Gatafe against Real Madrid one thousand,

1117
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 1: seven hundred seventy two to one.

1118
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 2: You might throw a dollar on that.

1119
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:16,440
Speaker 1: I've had worse ideas. Yeah, you just you know, why not?

1120
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 2: I asked you for one thousand to one parlay the

1121
00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 2: other day.

1122
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 1: And here you go, Yeah, I do I ever not

1123
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:26,480
Speaker 1: deliver exactly And uh all right, so we'll talk about

1124
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 1: the Championship playoffs. Burnley coming back, Uh not your not

1125
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:40,480
Speaker 1: your father's Burnley. I would say Anthony just started watching

1126
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:42,720
Speaker 1: soccer pretty recently, so he wouldn't know this. But you know,

1127
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 1: Burnley's reputation in a in a in the Premier League

1128
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 1: was as a you know, this defensive team and very tough,

1129
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 1: tough to break down with Sean DEITCHI was their manager

1130
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 1: at the time. Anthony, you wouldn't believe it, but his

1131
00:58:55,800 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 1: reputation was of a dinosaur that like to play at

1132
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 1: four four two and back and playing this windy, wet

1133
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 1: turf more. But they're coming back up under Vincent Company

1134
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 1: and they they look much more like Barcelona from from

1135
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 1: before you were born than the old Burnley and they're

1136
00:59:17,280 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 1: bringing Sheffield United with them. That puts Luton Town back

1137
00:59:20,320 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 1: in the playoff once again. They'll be there with Middlesbrough

1138
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:32,600
Speaker 1: Coventry City in Sunderland, so we could see Sunderland m

1139
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:35,880
Speaker 1: come back up. They'll take on Luton Town in the

1140
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 1: first round of the playoff. Middlesbrough plays Coventry City, little

1141
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 1: piece of Michael leboff Trivia. When I was eight years

1142
00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 1: old my family almost moved to England. We went to

1143
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 1: a Crystal Palace match. It was a Premieer. They were

1144
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 1: in the Premier League at the time and they played

1145
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 1: Coventry City and they lost. So I have a end

1146
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 1: well the When I went to England a couple of

1147
00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 1: years ago, I was graciously taken care of by a

1148
01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 1: Coventry City supporter. So I would love to see Coventry

1149
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 1: City come back up. They both them in Sunderland have

1150
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 1: been through the ringer I mean Lowtontown as well, so

1151
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 1: we'll see. I think, uh, you know, basically anybody but

1152
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:15,919
Speaker 1: Middlesbrough would be pretty exciting, which brings us to Bjay's pick.

1153
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I think I think Middlesbrough would be the

1154
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 2: most fun team to get through the playoff here.

1155
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 4: Uh you know the final day on Monday in the

1156
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 4: Championship and you know, if you follow me on Twitter,

1157
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:27,160
Speaker 4: I was tweeting through it.

1158
01:00:27,160 --> 01:00:28,840
Speaker 2: It was. It's pretty crazy.

1159
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 4: They started the day Millwall was in a position to

1160
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 4: clinch that final spot. They just needed to essentially get

1161
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 4: a draw or no ex eventually win against Blackburn. They

1162
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:42,080
Speaker 4: held a three to one lead and then just blew

1163
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 4: it completely collapsed. Sunderland beats Preston and moves into the

1164
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 4: playoff spot and then Coventry City was actually just playing Middlesbrough,

1165
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 4: who they will play in the playoff. They got the

1166
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:56,840
Speaker 4: match to one to one and they just sat off

1167
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,280
Speaker 4: and they just defended for their lives trying to get

1168
01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:03,120
Speaker 4: that final playoff spot. But this time around I do

1169
01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 4: like middles blow Middlesbrough draw, no bet. You can find

1170
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:10,400
Speaker 4: it out there best at even money. Michael Carrick is

1171
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:13,320
Speaker 4: the manager of Middlesbrough right now, former Manchester United legend,

1172
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:17,800
Speaker 4: and he has completely revitalized them, taken them from since

1173
01:01:17,840 --> 01:01:20,800
Speaker 4: he took over in November, took them from fifteenth to

1174
01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:23,480
Speaker 4: fourth in the table. They're averaging a now they're averaging

1175
01:01:23,480 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 4: a plus one point two to one expected gold deferential

1176
01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:29,320
Speaker 4: per ninety minutes. And what he's done is he's turned

1177
01:01:29,320 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 4: Middlesbrough into the arsenal of the championship. It's four to

1178
01:01:33,320 --> 01:01:36,440
Speaker 4: two three one. It's very fluid build up play. It

1179
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 4: usually pushes a wing back forward, so it's built up

1180
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:42,200
Speaker 4: in a three to two five compress the final line

1181
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:44,640
Speaker 4: of defense. It's allowed middlesbro to break down a lot

1182
01:01:44,640 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 4: of low blocks across the championship, which you do see

1183
01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 4: a lot in the second division. Troop of ACPOM former

1184
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 4: arsenal legend is flourishing in the system. Twenty eight goals.

1185
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 4: He's got the Golden boot point sixty three expected goal

1186
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 4: per ninety minutes scoring rate. And this is a good

1187
01:01:59,840 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 4: man for them because Coventry City is similar to that

1188
01:02:03,640 --> 01:02:05,880
Speaker 4: of a team like a Nottingham Forest. They play out

1189
01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:08,760
Speaker 4: of a three to five to two. They're very built

1190
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:12,640
Speaker 4: on being very direct counter attacking. They have overperformed defensively,

1191
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 4: allowed forty four goals off of fifty four point eight

1192
01:02:14,680 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 4: expected and what's weird is all of that over performance

1193
01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:20,640
Speaker 4: has come off of set pieces. They have only allowed

1194
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:22,560
Speaker 4: six goals off a set piece, so that's the best

1195
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:26,240
Speaker 4: mark in the Championship. That's off of eighteen point six expected.

1196
01:02:26,600 --> 01:02:29,920
Speaker 4: That's the second worst mark in the Championship. So Middlesbrough

1197
01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:32,919
Speaker 4: is a top five teams team term xtually per set piece.

1198
01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:35,600
Speaker 4: I think this is a fantastic matchup. Middlesbrough is minus

1199
01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:38,000
Speaker 4: two hundred new advance, so getting them drawn a bad

1200
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 4: at even money here in the first leg I think

1201
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:41,200
Speaker 4: is a fantastic price.

1202
01:02:42,080 --> 01:02:43,000
Speaker 1: It will be fun time.

1203
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:44,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was crazy, a fun one.

1204
01:02:44,360 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 1: It was crazy across all that the lower leagues. The

1205
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:51,960
Speaker 1: Cambridge United barely escaping relegation. I think League two was

1206
01:02:52,000 --> 01:02:54,840
Speaker 1: the only one that really wasn't that exciting if I

1207
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:58,360
Speaker 1: also saw that the National League was nuts too?

1208
01:02:58,720 --> 01:02:59,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, the National League was not.

1209
01:03:00,080 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 4: We'll see if you know, Knotts County can get through

1210
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 4: because they're very you know, if you follow tactical people online,

1211
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:07,479
Speaker 4: like there's a lot of people that love whatnot what

1212
01:03:07,960 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 4: Knotts County is doing with like not having like positionless

1213
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:13,800
Speaker 4: basically having positionless football and very fluidy to their attack.

1214
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:17,880
Speaker 3: It's very interesting football, yeah, exactly.

1215
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 4: And Wrexham is I heard I saw Michael Rexham is

1216
01:03:21,280 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 4: gonna go off at like seven to two to win

1217
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 4: league two next year.

1218
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:27,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I find it's funny that that Wrexham was painted

1219
01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:29,880
Speaker 1: as this, like, you know, obviously it's a Hollywood story

1220
01:03:29,880 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 1: because it involves people from Hollywood. Yeah, but when you

1221
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:36,440
Speaker 1: get to people with limitless money and they can just

1222
01:03:36,480 --> 01:03:38,200
Speaker 1: tap people on the shoulder and be like, hey, we

1223
01:03:38,240 --> 01:03:38,720
Speaker 1: need money.

1224
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 4: Will Ferrell Robinson, Canon Robinson Canyon is going to play

1225
01:03:42,520 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 4: for Wrexham next season for free.

1226
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, they got Brent ben Foster and and

1227
01:03:47,160 --> 01:03:52,240
Speaker 1: like so, but nots County. It's kind of yeah, Notts

1228
01:03:52,280 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 1: County is the more you know, might I guess it's

1229
01:03:55,720 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 1: a hipster It's a hipster thing to say, like, you know,

1230
01:03:57,880 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 1: Nots County is the true story were here and it's

1231
01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:04,360
Speaker 1: partly because of that. I think they're also the oldest team.

1232
01:04:04,400 --> 01:04:09,040
Speaker 1: And you know that's that's where ac Milan and inter

1233
01:04:09,120 --> 01:04:11,120
Speaker 1: Milan get their colors from, you know that, right, like

1234
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:15,480
Speaker 1: Garabaldi and nodding of force, like the founder of ac

1235
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 1: Milan in like the eighteen seventies saw nodding of force

1236
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 1: whatever they were called back then. I think they might

1237
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:24,760
Speaker 1: have been called it playing in those red jerseys and

1238
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:31,080
Speaker 1: brought it brought soccer to Italy and then ac Milan

1239
01:04:31,120 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 1: went with the Notts County color because they had a schism.

1240
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:36,520
Speaker 1: It's a crazy story, look it up.

1241
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:38,800
Speaker 3: It did bring I was leaving Game four of six

1242
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:41,280
Speaker 3: or Celtics since I'm a big NBA guy now, Michael

1243
01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:42,400
Speaker 3: and I did.

1244
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 1: Bring listen for Anthony on buckets.

1245
01:04:45,120 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 3: It did bring a small tear to my eye. We

1246
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:48,760
Speaker 3: were walking out of the stadium and there were two

1247
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:52,360
Speaker 3: fans behind me and one was explaining the entire English

1248
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 3: football pyramid to his friend in the context of Wrexham,

1249
01:04:56,400 --> 01:04:58,640
Speaker 3: and I was I was so tempted to turn around

1250
01:04:58,640 --> 01:05:01,440
Speaker 3: and start a conversation with this young but it was

1251
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:05,240
Speaker 3: I did not, but I did smile and think about that.

1252
01:05:05,360 --> 01:05:07,120
Speaker 3: You know, soccer has made it in America, not because

1253
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 3: of Ted last though maybe, but because of Welcome to Wrexham.

1254
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:13,480
Speaker 2: And that's fine. Anyway we can get it here, get

1255
01:05:13,480 --> 01:05:14,440
Speaker 2: more listeners to wonder goal.

1256
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 1: We'll take it all right on to our underdog parlay it,

1257
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:19,520
Speaker 1: tease it off the top. Hopefully you've been listening along

1258
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:21,640
Speaker 1: waiting for this thing. The last time we gave out

1259
01:05:21,680 --> 01:05:25,200
Speaker 1: a two hundred to one or more, parlay it hit,

1260
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:28,520
Speaker 1: so just remember that this one will come in at

1261
01:05:28,520 --> 01:05:30,200
Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty three to one, and we'll start

1262
01:05:30,240 --> 01:05:33,080
Speaker 1: with bj because he's got the softest leg of the bunch.

1263
01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:35,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, mine's the shortest. I'm of the biggest coward of

1264
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:35,920
Speaker 2: this bunch.

1265
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:39,600
Speaker 4: Here in this underdog parlay already mentioned it Spurs plus

1266
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:42,840
Speaker 4: two point fifteen against aston Villa. The market is telling

1267
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:45,280
Speaker 4: you that aston Villa is a better team than Tottenham

1268
01:05:45,280 --> 01:05:46,520
Speaker 4: and they would be on a neutral field.

1269
01:05:46,560 --> 01:05:47,360
Speaker 2: That it's just not the case.

1270
01:05:47,400 --> 01:05:50,600
Speaker 4: Todham has more talent, They've shown more life under Ryan Mason,

1271
01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:53,640
Speaker 4: five point four expectacles created and it's five matches in charge.

1272
01:05:53,920 --> 01:05:55,960
Speaker 4: Toddham is not going to do what aston Villa wants

1273
01:05:56,000 --> 01:05:57,440
Speaker 4: them to do, which is press them high so that

1274
01:05:57,440 --> 01:05:59,440
Speaker 4: they can play on the back, play through the pressure

1275
01:05:59,440 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 4: and get going in transitional opportunities. Tom's gonna sit back,

1276
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:04,280
Speaker 4: They're gonna wait, try to wait for Assenville to come

1277
01:06:04,320 --> 01:06:06,400
Speaker 4: break them down, which I do not trust asenability to

1278
01:06:06,440 --> 01:06:09,200
Speaker 4: do so. Tottenham plus two fifteen to kick off the

1279
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:10,160
Speaker 4: thunderdog parlay.

1280
01:06:11,160 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 1: Everden yep eight to one. They're hosting City.

1281
01:06:19,160 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 3: Nine to one.

1282
01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:21,840
Speaker 1: Yeah you can, you can.

1283
01:06:22,320 --> 01:06:23,280
Speaker 3: They're going to Dortmund.

1284
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:26,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is this is This is very easy for

1285
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:30,880
Speaker 1: for Anthony and I and and when you're talking about

1286
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:33,600
Speaker 1: that last time we hit that two hundred to one parlay,

1287
01:06:33,640 --> 01:06:37,760
Speaker 1: it was a team beat city, so why not try

1288
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:40,360
Speaker 1: again this time it's it's about the spot and it.

1289
01:06:40,240 --> 01:06:44,560
Speaker 4: Was also involved and you remember that also involved a

1290
01:06:44,600 --> 01:06:49,320
Speaker 4: Friday afternoon match between Boch beating Don.

1291
01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 3: Yes, so this is there's a lot of I think

1292
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:55,000
Speaker 3: the other one when we hit on eighty one was

1293
01:06:54,840 --> 01:06:58,600
Speaker 3: it was nodding, yeah, almost Pallas.

1294
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:01,360
Speaker 2: It was the almost one, yeah, blod.

1295
01:07:01,080 --> 01:07:05,720
Speaker 3: Bock against Bayern and then Sampdoria blew it. But the

1296
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:12,200
Speaker 3: other leg was yeah yeah. So it for that has

1297
01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 3: been in our two best of the year. Let's make

1298
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:18,120
Speaker 3: it three. We hit this one except Tom's gonna lose.

1299
01:07:18,240 --> 01:07:24,160
Speaker 1: But other than that, uh yeah, this is this is

1300
01:07:24,320 --> 01:07:27,320
Speaker 1: we're gonna we're taking on the title chasers. It's fine

1301
01:07:27,920 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 1: and BJS.

1302
01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 2: Is definitely a title What are you talking about?

1303
01:07:33,680 --> 01:07:40,800
Speaker 1: Yeah? Uh all right, so everdend Bock Spurs two hundred

1304
01:07:40,800 --> 01:07:43,240
Speaker 1: and eighty three to one, you can chop around and

1305
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:47,000
Speaker 1: maybe find something bigger out there, but I think that's

1306
01:07:47,040 --> 01:07:52,160
Speaker 1: definitely worth a bed, as is the uh letdown spot parlay.

1307
01:07:53,040 --> 01:07:57,680
Speaker 1: Maybe they both hit and wonder goal ceases to exist

1308
01:07:58,160 --> 01:08:02,400
Speaker 1: as we are all the owners of Scunthorpe or something

1309
01:08:02,760 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 1: nots County. Yeah, all right, bets bets in the Premier

1310
01:08:07,320 --> 01:08:09,880
Speaker 1: League for this upcoming week, huge week obviously, as we

1311
01:08:09,920 --> 01:08:12,840
Speaker 1: can get to the nitty gritty beach we could start

1312
01:08:12,840 --> 01:08:13,040
Speaker 1: with you.

1313
01:08:13,880 --> 01:08:16,559
Speaker 4: Yeah, Manchester United Wolves under two and a half at

1314
01:08:16,560 --> 01:08:20,559
Speaker 4: plus one point thirty. This is a way inflated total here.

1315
01:08:21,080 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 4: The previous meeting between these two teams the total closed

1316
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:25,639
Speaker 4: under two and a half at minus one ten. Not

1317
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:28,040
Speaker 4: really much has changed since that time. Wolves is a

1318
01:08:28,120 --> 01:08:31,160
Speaker 4: very slow, pragmatic team that likes to build out of

1319
01:08:31,160 --> 01:08:33,559
Speaker 4: the back. They don't really like to play direct style,

1320
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:35,559
Speaker 4: which is the way they're gonna have to play in

1321
01:08:35,600 --> 01:08:38,840
Speaker 4: this type of matchup. Manchester United again, Eric ten Hogg

1322
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:40,439
Speaker 4: wants them to play out of the back. They don't

1323
01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:43,760
Speaker 4: have it the Santa Martinez or Rafael Van their two

1324
01:08:43,800 --> 01:08:46,200
Speaker 4: best center backs and two best center backs and ball

1325
01:08:46,240 --> 01:08:49,800
Speaker 4: progression as well, which you know, teams like Newcastle and

1326
01:08:49,840 --> 01:08:52,840
Speaker 4: Savilla have pressed them high and caused a lot of problems.

1327
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:54,639
Speaker 2: Well, Wolves is not going to be that team.

1328
01:08:54,760 --> 01:08:57,519
Speaker 4: This sets up to be very much a slog between

1329
01:08:57,600 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 4: two slow, pragmatic teams.

1330
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:02,040
Speaker 2: So two and a half have plus one thirty.

1331
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:05,640
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Brighton here, taking on Arsenal. This is

1332
01:09:05,640 --> 01:09:08,160
Speaker 1: a pretty big theme to this week for me. It's

1333
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:11,240
Speaker 1: it's looking for those spots to go against teams that

1334
01:09:11,280 --> 01:09:13,200
Speaker 1: are going to be inflated on the price, whether it's

1335
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:17,320
Speaker 1: chasing a fighting relegation, chasing a title spot, et cetera.

1336
01:09:17,600 --> 01:09:19,960
Speaker 1: I think this is one of them. Arsenal minus one

1337
01:09:20,040 --> 01:09:24,439
Speaker 1: thirty eight hosting Brighton, that seems a little little shaky, Bjay,

1338
01:09:24,600 --> 01:09:28,640
Speaker 1: sorry to say it. Brighton's still dangerous. There are a

1339
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:31,960
Speaker 1: little bit of concerns with where the team collectively is

1340
01:09:32,000 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 1: at with the season coming to an end. Coach maybe

1341
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:36,519
Speaker 1: having its head turned, a couple of players maybe having

1342
01:09:36,560 --> 01:09:38,680
Speaker 1: their heads turned. But I mean, this has been one

1343
01:09:38,680 --> 01:09:40,080
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the league all season, one

1344
01:09:40,120 --> 01:09:42,960
Speaker 1: of the most consistent teams all in the league all season,

1345
01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:44,920
Speaker 1: and for the past few years, one of the best

1346
01:09:45,000 --> 01:09:48,240
Speaker 1: underdogs in the Premier League. So they won't be afraid

1347
01:09:48,280 --> 01:09:51,160
Speaker 1: of the spot. Give me the Seagals plus three point

1348
01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:54,200
Speaker 1: fifty is my favorite bet, Anthony, What do you got?

1349
01:09:55,240 --> 01:09:57,680
Speaker 3: Everton plus one and a half Everton team total over

1350
01:09:57,720 --> 01:10:00,320
Speaker 3: a half. Gonna split my unit on that out of

1351
01:10:00,360 --> 01:10:03,719
Speaker 3: this match. Enough now expecting pet rotation, expecting a city

1352
01:10:03,720 --> 01:10:06,320
Speaker 3: flat spot in the middle of this Champions League tie.

1353
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:09,200
Speaker 3: They have a legal room to be flat and not

1354
01:10:09,320 --> 01:10:12,479
Speaker 3: lose the title. I think there's they're real danger this weekend,

1355
01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:14,679
Speaker 3: and I think a lot of people overlook it because

1356
01:10:14,680 --> 01:10:16,400
Speaker 3: it's Everton or at the bottom of the table. But

1357
01:10:16,520 --> 01:10:20,880
Speaker 3: I don't expect that from any team coached by Sean Dish.

1358
01:10:22,360 --> 01:10:26,160
Speaker 1: All Right, a little PSA before I go. I really

1359
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:29,559
Speaker 1: think everybody should play this underdog parlay this week. Take

1360
01:10:29,600 --> 01:10:33,799
Speaker 1: twenty bucks, take ten bucks, whatever it is, split split

1361
01:10:33,840 --> 01:10:37,040
Speaker 1: that ten bucks or twenty bucks, whatever you feel comfortable with,

1362
01:10:37,840 --> 01:10:41,639
Speaker 1: and put half of it on Everdon, clot Back and Spurs,

1363
01:10:41,640 --> 01:10:46,040
Speaker 1: and then put the other half on Everden, Cisuolo, Guitafe

1364
01:10:46,600 --> 01:10:49,000
Speaker 1: and Spetsia. Why not?

1365
01:10:49,760 --> 01:10:50,120
Speaker 3: Why not?

1366
01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:55,160
Speaker 1: And we'll see you for our victory parade where we

1367
01:10:55,200 --> 01:10:56,479
Speaker 1: talk about what we're going to do with all this

1368
01:10:56,640 --> 01:10:59,360
Speaker 1: loot as a podcast, maybe we'll you know, you guys

1369
01:10:59,360 --> 01:11:01,080
Speaker 1: can call into the to the Bad Beat time.

1370
01:11:01,280 --> 01:11:03,960
Speaker 2: Well, we'll see you in college. We'll see you at

1371
01:11:04,040 --> 01:11:04,760
Speaker 2: Monaco as more.

1372
01:11:04,840 --> 01:11:06,360
Speaker 1: What will be exactly.

1373
01:11:06,760 --> 01:11:08,479
Speaker 3: Grand Prix is a couple weeks and months.

1374
01:11:08,520 --> 01:11:09,680
Speaker 2: It's true.

1375
01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:12,680
Speaker 1: Maybe the podcast listenership like, we'll just go in as

1376
01:11:12,680 --> 01:11:19,400
Speaker 1: a syndicate and buy Scunthorpe for b J Cunningham, Anthony Dubundo.

1377
01:11:19,960 --> 01:11:22,280
Speaker 1: I'm Michael Leebup. This has been wonder goal presented to

1378
01:11:22,280 --> 01:11:26,120
Speaker 1: you by Bet three sixty five. Please have a good weekend,

1379
01:11:26,120 --> 01:11:28,200
Speaker 1: good luck with all your bets, and gamble responsibly.

1380
01:11:35,400 --> 01:11:39,920
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1381
01:11:39,920 --> 01:11:42,720
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1382
01:11:42,760 --> 01:11:45,879
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler