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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you? It's time for a

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Speaker 1: Thursday morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast with Me

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Speaker 1: Matt Perolt at Sports Talk, Matt deveolow me across all socials.

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Speaker 1: This podcast is being brought to you by our friends

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Speaker 1: at Olmaha Steaks dot com. And wouldn't you know it,

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Speaker 1: Olmaha Steaks dot com They've got a brand new offer

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Speaker 1: for us coming up here in just one second. But

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Speaker 1: last night the reverse sweep oh in three down three

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Speaker 1: point three units. We flipped a week where we were

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Speaker 1: up one point eight units to being down one point

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Speaker 1: five units in one day. That is sports betting. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: because I liked all those bets. In fact, I would

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Speaker 1: make those bets again. Kentucky was the only bet I

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Speaker 1: would say I got wrong, like on the wrong side. Look,

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Speaker 1: when you go up seventeen to two game, when you

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Speaker 1: have a big lead and you're catching six points in

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Speaker 1: the second half and you fall apart in the final

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Speaker 1: four minutes, that's just sports. Both Bama and Baylor got

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Speaker 1: hot from behind the arc in the last four minutes.

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Speaker 1: That's just you know, when does the run happen? And

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Speaker 1: the run happened at the end of the game for

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Speaker 1: both those two teams. I mean, home dogs were right

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Speaker 1: there to win the game outright, and they both lose

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Speaker 1: going away. I mean pretty much if you if you

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Speaker 1: did not watch the game and just just look at

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Speaker 1: the final score, you'd be like, oh my gosh. You know,

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Speaker 1: let's ranked teams easily went on the road and one easily. No.

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Speaker 1: Bama was down big at the break, so was Baylor

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Speaker 1: was losing at the break. Bama was losing at the break.

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Speaker 1: Ten minutes to go, We're right there. I mean, heck,

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Speaker 1: with two minutes to go with Alabama, we're right there's

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Speaker 1: ty game two minutes to go. So, I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: just a frustrating thing. And look that happens in sports betting. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's just when people say I was on the right side,

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Speaker 1: that's what they mean. You know, I think the dog

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Speaker 1: was the right play didn't come in. That's just what happens.

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Speaker 1: I like, I'd rather be making these types of bets

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Speaker 1: every time, because over the course of a season, we

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Speaker 1: will do well. Okay, I will give you the record.

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Speaker 1: I'll do it to you now here. For the month

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Speaker 1: of January, I can tell you what we wound up

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Speaker 1: for the month of January. Overall, we wound up up

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Speaker 1: six point nine units, so seven units basically on the

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Speaker 1: month of January. I'm not going to apologize for that. Look,

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Speaker 1: if we do that twelve times, okay, be up nearly

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Speaker 1: one hundred units. I'll take that every second of the

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Speaker 1: every year. If we can do that. Now, I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying we're going to do that every single month, but

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Speaker 1: that's a winning month. Okay. We wound up with a

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Speaker 1: record of sixty and fifty nine. How about that? Pretty

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Speaker 1: much flat there, but we got ourselves. Obviously, the future

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Speaker 1: wagers came in and a couple you know, decent plus

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Speaker 1: money hits for us, So we come in there, will

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Speaker 1: end up the when the month fifteen to eleven. In

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Speaker 1: the NFL, it's fifty seven point six percent there. College

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Speaker 1: basketball will wind up thirty and twenty four, so that's

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Speaker 1: up five units there. College football, we were two and four,

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Speaker 1: but the future wager helped us get four point six

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Speaker 1: down on that. So yeah, in NBA, two and eight

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Speaker 1: in the NBA not good. Twenty percent in the NBA

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Speaker 1: it's not great, and NHL is fun. We went five

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Speaker 1: and six in the month of January, down one point

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Speaker 1: one units in prop bets in the NFL. We went

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Speaker 1: zero to two in January. I don't think that's right.

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Speaker 1: I need more than two prop bets in the NFL, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean didn't I I got to go back and

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Speaker 1: check the record there. That seems to be wrong. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's right, so the NFL. I gotta check

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Speaker 1: that out. For the whole month of January, I didn't bet.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I didn't. I don't know. I don't like betting

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Speaker 1: prop bets in the playoffs, so that's not crazy. I

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Speaker 1: only bet two. I thought I bet more than two,

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Speaker 1: though I don't know. I'll check that out so that

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Speaker 1: that may be not entirely accurate, but if it is accurate,

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Speaker 1: six point nine. We're up six point nine units on

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Speaker 1: the month of January as we head towards the month

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Speaker 1: coming up this weekend. Okay, let's get into it here

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Speaker 1: a little bit with a future wager. I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: a little late today zero to three to lick my

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Speaker 1: wounds a little bit. I'm not gonna go too heavy

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Speaker 1: on this. We're just gonna come in and talk about

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Speaker 1: North Carolina here from a future perspective. So North Carolina

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Speaker 1: is playing duke this coming weekend at home. They are

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Speaker 1: fifteen to one to win it all. We have Creating

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Speaker 1: at thirty to one. Now, you can get them at

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Speaker 1: forty five to one right now. We have Mark Kennet

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Speaker 1: twenty to one. You can get them at thirty to

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Speaker 1: one right now. And we have Arizona at eleven to one.

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Speaker 1: That's gonna be a little bit lighter probably, you know, eight, nine,

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Speaker 1: ten to many of what you're looking at for Arizona,

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Speaker 1: maybe a little higher two. Some Boks might have it

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Speaker 1: hired too. But we're in at eleven to one, all right.

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Speaker 1: I was gonna put Kentucky in there. Can't now. Losing

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Speaker 1: to Florida at home, uh uh. I was gonna put

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Speaker 1: Tennessee in there. Can't do that. Tennessee No. Losing at

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Speaker 1: home to South Carolina, I can't do it. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna stop here with just four. This is going to

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Speaker 1: be the portfolio as we head towards Intuba tournament, and

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Speaker 1: we'll add once we see the bracket, but pre bracket,

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Speaker 1: these are the four one unit bets I'm gonna make

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Speaker 1: going into the Intuba tournament, and I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 1: fifteen to one here with North Carolina. Why. Okay, they

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Speaker 1: played Duke coming up here this weekend. I think think

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Speaker 1: they beat Duke. Do they cover? I'm not sure, but

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Speaker 1: I think they beat Duke. I think Duke will return

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Speaker 1: the favor on March the ninth, and Duke will beat

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Speaker 1: North Carolina. So they are nine to one in conference.

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Speaker 1: I think they'll go to ten in one after this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Then they play Clemson, Miami, Syracuse, VATECH, Virginia, Miami, NC

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Speaker 1: State in Notre Dame. According to kempom, they win every

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Speaker 1: single one of those games, they could very well wind

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Speaker 1: up with a record in the conference of seventeen and three,

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Speaker 1: eighteen and two, sixteen and four summer in that range. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the ACC generally this season is a top five conference

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Speaker 1: that will get four to five teams in the NCAA Tournament.

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Speaker 1: If North Carolina wins the regular season championship with it's possible.

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Speaker 1: It's not guaranteed, but it's possible. They win the ACC

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Speaker 1: regular season and then they say they make the ACC Final,

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Speaker 1: they will be one seed. Okay, they will be a

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Speaker 1: one seed and we'll be sitting with a fifteen to

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Speaker 1: one ticket on North Carolina as a one seed. That's

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Speaker 1: a pretty good place to be, Okay, that's a you

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Speaker 1: want to sit there. You want to be there because

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Speaker 1: we get to work off of it like crazy. Again,

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Speaker 1: these are not projections, these are numbers we're gonna work

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Speaker 1: off of. Okay, Essentially, I just need all four of

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Speaker 1: these these teams to win two games in the NAA Tournament.

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Speaker 1: Once we get to the sweet sixteen, we'll start betting

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Speaker 1: against every one of these teams. We'll start working off

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Speaker 1: the fifteen to one, thirty to one, twenty to one. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So we don't ever really expect to cash it at

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Speaker 1: twenty to one, but it's just a position we get

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Speaker 1: to hedge off of. So Okay, North Carolina at fifteen

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Speaker 1: to one, we don't have a ton of wiggle room,

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Speaker 1: but we have some. Right, you can come in there

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Speaker 1: and bet two units and then two units and then

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Speaker 1: two units, and we can wind up clearing if they

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Speaker 1: win the whole thing. We can wind up clearing, you know,

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Speaker 1: on decent amount. But this is how we're going to

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Speaker 1: approach the NSAA tournament pre bracket, now post bracket, I

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Speaker 1: will equally have other bets when we look at the like,

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Speaker 1: I need to see Ole Miss. Ole Miss is one

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Speaker 1: hundred to one. Ole Miss is red hot. Rebels are

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Speaker 1: red red hot, And if you want to go with

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Speaker 1: a complete flyer, you can do that. But I'm gonna wait.

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Speaker 1: The number is gonna come down dramatically, but I'm gonna wait.

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Speaker 1: See their draw. Let's see what they get and if

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Speaker 1: they have an easier draw or a decent draw, one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent and may come in officially with ole Miss.

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Speaker 1: But I know people who have said, look, ole Miss,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of value in them. Jump on ole

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Speaker 1: Miss at one hundred to one. I mean it's one

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Speaker 1: hundred to one. Okay, not a bad bet. They're eighteen

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Speaker 1: and three, So you can jump in on that if

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Speaker 1: you want. But I'm not gonna make that official. I

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Speaker 1: don't love it, but I think it's you know, you

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Speaker 1: want to complete Hail Mary play. There's your Hail Mary

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Speaker 1: play with Ole Miss. So North Carolina fifteen to one

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Speaker 1: to win the national championship for one unit. All right,

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Speaker 1: So we have four bets now heading towards the NCAA

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Speaker 1: tournament as we start the month of February. We'll wait

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Speaker 1: for the bracket to come out obviously in the middle

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Speaker 1: of March. We'll wait six weeks, we'll sit on these numbers.

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Speaker 1: If you want to wait, you can wait. Okay. I'm

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Speaker 1: just taking these positions right now because, like I said,

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Speaker 1: because like at thirty to one for Creighton, forty five

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Speaker 1: to one's better obviously. But it's not like I'm angry

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Speaker 1: about that, because I'm obviously going in there anticipating hedging

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Speaker 1: off of it. Okay, So I am. It's just how

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Speaker 1: many numbers do I want to play with? How many

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Speaker 1: units do I want to bet against the Blue Jays

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Speaker 1: coming up in the tournament to see if they win

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Speaker 1: or not. So forty five to one's great, take it,

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Speaker 1: But I have thirty to one, and I'm perfectly comfortable

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Speaker 1: with the Jays at thirty to one. So again, it's

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Speaker 1: Creighton thirty to one, Marquette twenty to one, Arizona eleven

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Speaker 1: to one, and I'm jumping on a on North Carolina

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Speaker 1: fifteen to one to win it all for one point

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Speaker 1: one units. All right, let's talk about one game tonight.

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Speaker 1: It's Oregon in the PAC twelve. I hate the slate,

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Speaker 1: by the way. The slate just isn't really pretty. This

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Speaker 1: number for Oregon on the road at USC is a

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Speaker 1: one point win. It's currently minus one and a half

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Speaker 1: for Oregon at FanDuel. Most books have already gone to two.

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Speaker 1: Vandal excuse me, is still at one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Oregon's on the way up. Oregon's playing much better than USC. Oregon,

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Speaker 1: even though they lost their last game at home to

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Speaker 1: Arizona eighty seven to seventy eight, they beat Arizona State

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Speaker 1: on the road. They lost their last two road games

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Speaker 1: to Utah and Colorado. And you might go, Matt, I

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Speaker 1: don't know. Look, they need it. They are desperate for

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Speaker 1: a w and I really don't like what I've seen

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Speaker 1: out of USC this season. Okay, they're just going in

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Speaker 1: the wrong direction. They've lost five games in a row.

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Speaker 1: They're two and seven in conference so far. They have

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Speaker 1: lost seven of nine their two home wins. The two

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Speaker 1: wins were at home against Stanford and col not good teams,

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Speaker 1: ninety first in one nineteen in KEMPOM. They've lost against

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Speaker 1: everyone decent. They lost against Auburn that they played, they

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Speaker 1: lost against Oklahoma, they lost against Gonzaga, they lost against Colorado,

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Speaker 1: they lost against even UCLA by fifteen points. Things are

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Speaker 1: not good for Andy Enfield's team at the moment. And

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Speaker 1: this is look get to February. This is when Dan

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Speaker 1: Alman starts to click in and when his team starts

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Speaker 1: to perform well. And I just think the matchup is

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Speaker 1: bad for USC. When Oregon's offense is fortieth in efficiency

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Speaker 1: fiftieth and effective field goal percentage twenty eight in three

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Speaker 1: point percentage ninetieth and two point percentage three hundred and

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Speaker 1: tenth USC defensively from behind the arc, if Oregon hits

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Speaker 1: their threes, this game won't be close. This will be

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Speaker 1: a runout for Oregon. You have USC Offensively, they're okay,

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Speaker 1: seventy fourth in three point percentage, but they're one hundred

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Speaker 1: and ninety sixth and two point per percentage, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty fifth in effective field goal percentage, ninety third

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Speaker 1: in efficiency. Oregon's a team that likes to play fast normally,

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Speaker 1: but not really this year. They're one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: six this year in adjusted tempo, USC is ninety second.

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Speaker 1: I don't really have a feel one way or the

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Speaker 1: other on the total, but it's a short number. I know.

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Speaker 1: Betting road favorites in college basketball is really a dangerous thing.

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Speaker 1: But I don't like this USC team at all. I

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Speaker 1: think Oregon goes in there and gets a win. I'm

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Speaker 1: taking Oregon minus one and a half for the Ducks

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Speaker 1: for one point one units. Now, the other bet I

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Speaker 1: got is to the NBA Lakers at the Celtics. Now

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Speaker 1: here's a couple of things. If Lebron is not going

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Speaker 1: to play, this number is gonna run, all right, the

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Speaker 1: number is ten and a half or eleven right now

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Speaker 1: for Boston. Celtics were eight point favorites in their last

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Speaker 1: two home games, and they failed to cover them both.

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Speaker 1: They beat Indiana by five, They beat New Orleans by six.

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Speaker 1: They were down by seventeen points to New Orleans. They rallied,

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Speaker 1: They did not cover. We were on them. I can't come

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Speaker 1: in here and lay double digits at home for the

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Speaker 1: Celtics against the Lakers, because if Lebron plays, and if

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Speaker 1: Anthony Davis plays, won, the number crashes. You could take

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Speaker 1: a flyer on this and go, okay, I think they're

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Speaker 1: gonna play, So I'm gonna take the eleven points. If

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Speaker 1: I got into my head what number of my betting,

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Speaker 1: I'm taking the Lakers, Okay, But I'm not gonna touch

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Speaker 1: that number because there's a better trend to bet here,

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Speaker 1: and this is hopeful that both Lebron and ad play.

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Speaker 1: The Lakers are eighteen and eight to the over on

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Speaker 1: the road this year, eighteen and eight. Now Boston is

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Speaker 1: only twelve and twelve. They're twenty four and twenty four overall.

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Speaker 1: They're twelve and twelve at home to a total. But

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Speaker 1: eight of the last ten and seven to row Phi

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Speaker 1: Lakers have gone over, including every game on this road

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Speaker 1: trips so far. Three of the last four games, sorry

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Speaker 1: four to the last five games have been on the

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Speaker 1: road for the Lakers and they've all gone over. Against

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Speaker 1: the Clippers, it went over. That was Staples Center, but

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Speaker 1: Golden State over by forty three points, Houston over by

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Speaker 1: eighteen and a half points, Atlanta over by twelve points.

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Speaker 1: Those were two forty eight, two thirty five and a half,

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Speaker 1: two thirty and sorry, two forty six and two thirty six.

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Speaker 1: This numbers two forty. Boston went over in the last

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Speaker 1: game against Indiana because well, it's Indiana. But how many

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Speaker 1: points will Boston score? Now? If the Celtics first half

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Speaker 1: team total is under sixty two, I'm jumping on that

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Speaker 1: I will bet that one hundred percent. I am betting that. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Boston can score a lot in the first half. It's

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Speaker 1: a good bet. It's been a good bet. I like it.

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Speaker 1: If it's between fifty eight and sixty two and under

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Speaker 1: sixty two, I'm jumping on it. It's two forty for the game,

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Speaker 1: that Boston Celtics first half team total, I we'll make

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Speaker 1: it official, but I'm definitely betting it. Okay, there's no

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Speaker 1: number out at the me and right now at the

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Speaker 1: time of taping this, no first half team total number out.

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Speaker 1: They wait for the game to get closer to tip

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Speaker 1: day of and then they'll go ahead and put it out.

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Speaker 1: But I'm telling you, if it's sixty one, I'm all

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Speaker 1: over it. I'm gonna bet the over. I can't lay

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Speaker 1: the points. It's too many points. I'm gonna bet the

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Speaker 1: trend with the Lakers and them being such an over

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Speaker 1: machine over the last seven games, they're not stopping anybody

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Speaker 1: gi They give up one hundred and thirty eight, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five, one hundred and forty four, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty two, one hundred and twenty seven, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and ten, one hundred and thirty over their last

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Speaker 1: seven games, all games gone over. Every game's gone over

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Speaker 1: by at least seven points during this streak for the Lakers,

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Speaker 1: two or the last four for Boston have gone over.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna bet the trend here. Celtics Lakers over

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Speaker 1: too forty. Expect zero defense being played. A little Boston

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Speaker 1: may play some defense. Lakers need a D and Lebron though.

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Speaker 1: If they're not playing, I expect the number to spike

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Speaker 1: and the total crash won't be great. I'll be angry,

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Speaker 1: but that's just the nature of betting overnight. It's Celtics Lakers.

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Speaker 1: I always bet this, whether I win or not, I

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Speaker 1: always bet this. I'm gonna bet the trend over two

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Speaker 1: forty Celtics and the Lakers for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: All right, just two bets going tonight. One future to

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Speaker 1: give you guys North Carolina to win it all at

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Speaker 1: fifteen to one. That's available at multiple books Oregon minus

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Speaker 1: one and a half for one point one units. Celtics

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Speaker 1: Lakers over two forty for one point one units. Let's

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Speaker 1: even get back on the winning track here and head

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Speaker 1: towards the weekend and close this thing out with a

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Speaker 1: good week. Let's go two and oh, get back into

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Speaker 1: the black for the week, and then head towards the weekend,

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Speaker 1: hopefully with some big games in college basketball. Saturday Slate

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Speaker 1: is enormous. We're gonna have so many bets on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: I can't wait. Huge college basketball Saturday. Really looking forward

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Speaker 1: to it. The slate tonight and tomorrow not that great

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Speaker 1: Saturday loaded five six bets coming on Saturday. Easy min

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Speaker 1: as Matt Prology gets and follow me across all socials

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Speaker 1: at sports Doc Matt each and every morning that dealed

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Speaker 1: you this podcast. It's always being brought to you by

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Speaker 1: omastakes dot com.