1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: Now with Steve Chicago. Lindsay Pigs joins us. Lindsay, how 7 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 2: do you define recession if it is an NBER, what's 8 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 2: a Piegsa recession look like? 9 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 3: Well, I think we're looking for two consecutive quarters of 10 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 3: negative growth. But frankly, when we get to a non 11 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 3: accelerating economy, it was growth falling anywhere near less than 12 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 3: one percent, you're kind of flitting hairs at that point, 13 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 3: thank you. The economy would clearly be struggling with inflation 14 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 3: still very elevated. 15 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 2: At this point, you nailed the elevation. How do you 16 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 2: feel about economic growth? Can you even look out three months, 17 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 2: nine months, a year and a half, given everything hinged 18 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 2: on policy? 19 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 3: Well, it is very difficult at this point. When we 20 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 3: look at in hindsight, we see that the footing for 21 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 3: the US economy is still very solid, consumer spending, businesses 22 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 3: still investing, but there's an incredible amount of uncertainty and 23 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 3: volatility coming down the pipeline, which could very easily shake 24 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 3: away that solid putting that we've seen in the economy 25 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 3: for quite some time now. 26 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 4: So, Lindsay, is stagflation a concern? 27 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 3: Actually, staglation is the biggest concern. I don't think a 28 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 3: recession or an outright decline is really my primary focus. 29 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 3: But a period of stagflation, as the FED lack of 30 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 3: commitment to rating in price pressures could eventually choke off 31 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 3: the upside potential for the US economy, leaving us again 32 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 3: we're splitting hair is whether or not we fall into 33 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 3: negative territory. The risk is that we could grow slow 34 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 3: from this two percent take to one percent to less 35 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 3: than one percent, with nominal price pressures still up at 36 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 3: three ish percent. Of slow growth, elevated prices the very 37 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 3: definition of sagsulation. 38 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 4: So what are you seeing in the labor market here today, lindsay, 39 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 4: because that's kind of the front lines for how people 40 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 4: are feeling about the economy. 41 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 3: Well, the labor market is still somewhat solid, but showing 42 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:42,359 Speaker 3: signs of volatility and uncertainty. Now, most of the weakness 43 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 3: that we have seen has been the result of treasic 44 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 3: weather events, the fires in California, unfavorable weather scenarios, and 45 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 3: the mid Atlantic and the East Coast. But there was 46 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 3: also a sizeable decline in services hiring as of late, 47 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 3: which could in part reflect the fact that the federal 48 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 3: government has made moves to shrink the size of government, 49 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 3: reduce federal employees, several government contracts, and so this could 50 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 3: be the tip of the iceberg in terms of that 51 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 3: downward pressure on the labor market as a result of 52 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 3: these new initiatives. 53 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,679 Speaker 2: I mean, Lindsay pigs with us with STIFA for a 54 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:22,799 Speaker 2: lengthy conversation here this morning. She was fabulous last year 55 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:26,079 Speaker 2: in gaming out a feed that would stay higher on 56 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 2: their rate because of Inflation's Paul mentioned stagflation really front 57 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 2: and center. What do you observe from the distance of 58 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 2: the Midwest. I mean when we say slow down or 59 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 2: and I totally take your point, Lindsay, on one percent 60 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 2: is a recession for two thirds of America, three quarters, whatever, 61 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 2: But is it a good slowdown or a service sector slowdown? 62 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 3: It would be a servant sector slow down, which has 63 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 3: really been the engine of the economy at this point. 64 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 3: So I do think that if we saw that precipitous 65 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 3: decline in activity broad based activity. It would primarily be 66 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 3: a reflection of that pullback in services, both on the 67 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 3: hiring side but also the expenditure side. And we've already 68 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 3: seen consumers exhibit this rising level of concern amid a 69 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 3: very uncertain outlook, pulling back on what they're purchasing over 70 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 3: the course of the past two months. So really setting 71 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:30,840 Speaker 3: us up for a potential self inflicted, if you will, 72 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 3: downturn in terms of consumer activity being sidelined as a 73 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 3: result of this tremendous amount of uncertainty coming from fiscal policy. 74 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 4: So lindsay, have you guys changed your GDP forecast here recently? 75 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 3: We haven't necessarily changed our forecast, but we have added 76 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 3: to the downside risks to our forecast. It's still too 77 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 3: soon to say exactly what the impact is going to 78 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 3: be of the latest initiatives from the Trump administration, but 79 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,359 Speaker 3: I do think that the downside risk to growth, the 80 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 3: upside risk to inflation, we're starting to see that spread increase, 81 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 3: which could compound a less favorable outlook for the economy, 82 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 3: at least in the near term. 83 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 2: How does the stock market fit in if you look 84 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: at any core first term economics, major non economics, major 85 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 2: text the stock market, Lindsay Biggs shows up about chapter 86 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 2: twenty three. How do you fold a declining stock market 87 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 2: futures now negative eighty down, futures negative forty one, the 88 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 2: vix out almost three big figures. How does that fold 89 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 2: into confidence in the animal spirit? 90 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 3: Well, I think that reinforces the concern and the lack 91 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 3: of optimism that the market has right now for the 92 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 3: US economy broadly to continue to perform without this ongoing 93 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 3: rank propelled by the consumer, which again really propped up 94 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 3: the economy over the past couple of years. So this 95 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 3: underscores the uncertainty and the volatility and the lack of 96 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 3: confidence that investors and consumers have looking forward over the 97 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 3: next couple of quarters. 98 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 4: All right, so lindsay, what do you think we'll see 99 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 4: some of this? I guess just uncertainty in the marketplace 100 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 4: caused by in part by some of this talk on tariffs, 101 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 4: talks on change of immigration policy. Will it be in 102 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 4: growth GDP numbers or will be in an inflation? Where 103 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 4: do you think we'll see it first, if at all? 104 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 3: Well, it's going to take some time to filter into 105 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 3: the inflation numbers. So the tariffs that are enacted today 106 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,479 Speaker 3: are going to take probably two to three months to 107 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 3: filter into the inflation numbers. So there is a sizeable 108 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 3: lack in terms of the growth aspects. We would expect 109 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 3: that more of a near term reaction, consumers reacting in 110 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 3: anticipation of those potential increases. We would also see businesses 111 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,239 Speaker 3: at the start of the year already increasing inventories, again 112 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 3: in anticipation of that potential implementation and potential impact of Paris. 113 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 3: So I think we're going to see that in the 114 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 3: growth numbers first and foremost before we actually see the 115 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 3: realized impact on prices. 116 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 2: Lindsay Northwestern University in Chicago. They have their acclaimed transportation 117 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 2: center right now. The transportation center between whoever wins a 118 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 2: Canadian election and President Trump is a bridge between Detroit 119 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 2: and Windsor, Ontario. You've got a visceral knowledge of that. 120 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 2: How do you describe de mere mortals the trade tension 121 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 2: across that frozen river. 122 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 3: Oh, it's quite intense. But remember it was not long 123 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 3: after that traff was announced that the Jump administration did 124 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 3: grant an exemption for the auto sector for a period 125 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 3: of one month amid massive pleas from several large automakers 126 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 3: that these tariffs would cause severe supply chain disruptions, could 127 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 3: result in significant price increases. So the sense of immediacy 128 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 3: in terms of that rollback that exemption period really underscores 129 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 3: the sensitivity and importance of that relationship. 130 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:32,839 Speaker 2: Okay, the really side, we get to April. I mean 131 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,079 Speaker 2: the Red Sox are winning the first week of April. 132 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 2: Season's over by fourth week of April, Lindsey Piegs, are 133 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 2: we going to see? Do you just assume with the 134 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 2: dynamics and knowledge and facts you have right now that 135 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 2: you know Ford or GM or Stilantis Chrysler's get un 136 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 2: dial one eight hundred Trump and say we're laying off 137 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,559 Speaker 2: X thousands of people on Tuesday. Is that what we're 138 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 2: going to see in May or June. 139 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 3: Well, we certainly could be, and it could be used 140 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 3: as a negotiating tactic. But at the same time, the 141 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 3: Trump administration has been clear that a period of adjustment 142 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 3: is expected, that that temporary disruptions are expected, And the 143 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 3: bottom line comes down to the Trump administration wants to 144 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 3: be able to level the playing field, and if that 145 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 3: comes at the consequence of the auto sector, I think 146 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 3: the administration may be willing to sacrifice that, at least 147 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 3: in the near term, to ensure a better, longer term 148 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 3: trade agreement with our neighbor. 149 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 2: I'm making the number up, folks. I'm not qualified they're 150 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 2: going to sacrifice twenty thousand jobs in the greater pigs 151 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 2: of Midwest to get some national thing done. I see 152 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 2: no history that that's occurred. 153 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 3: I don't think that we have to go to the 154 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 3: extreme where we see a complete shutdown of the industry. 155 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:58,559 Speaker 3: But maybe there's some room for negotiation. That the tariffs 156 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 3: that were put in place, the twenty five percent, maybe 157 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 3: that's too elevated for the auto sector. Maybe we see 158 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 3: some sort of exclusion as we saw with Canadian energy, 159 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 3: which will have a lower tariff of ten percent. Maybe 160 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 3: the Trump administration that would be willing to negotiate lower. 161 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 3: But again, it comes down to the resolve of the 162 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 3: administration to enforce these tariffs to ensure a longer term, 163 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 3: more even playing field with our international trading partners. And 164 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 3: I think that if some jobs are lost, if some 165 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 3: uncomfortability for the economy occurs, I think the administration is 166 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 3: willing to take that medicine. 167 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 2: To the editorialize yeah, my head, Yes exactly. 168 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 4: Hey, lindsay, given all this backdrop here that we've been 169 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 4: talking about, how's the US consumer these days? 170 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 3: Well, the US consumer is on relatively solid putting if 171 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,719 Speaker 3: we look at their financial condition, when we look at 172 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 3: the amount of debt accumulation, yes, it has rammed up massively, 173 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 3: particularly with credit cards, at one point to trillion dollars 174 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 3: in terms of outstanding balances. But when we put that 175 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 3: in the perspective of the health of the balance sheet, 176 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 3: so the ratio of debt payments relative to disposable income, 177 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 3: we're still talking about a multi decade low. So the 178 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 3: ability for the consumer to continue to spend and borrow 179 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 3: is certainly there, but the willingness is beginning to get 180 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 3: shipped away again amid all of this uncertainty of these 181 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,439 Speaker 3: different policies coming down the pipeline. 182 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 2: Doctor Piegs, thank you so much. My Economist of the 183 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 2: Year last year. She absolutely nailed a FED reticent to 184 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 2: cut interest rates. 185 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 186 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 187 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 188 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube. 189 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 2: Hendriet of trades with us right now, She's spend with 190 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 2: us almost daily, wicked intelligence with VEDA partners on what's 191 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:06,559 Speaker 2: going on in Washington. Henrietta, I got any ways to go, 192 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 2: and folks, I'm not going to mince words. The tape 193 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 2: is terrible. This morning, Jeff steined Dan Diamond the Washington 194 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 2: Post top story. Everybody in Washington reads it. Trump touted 195 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 2: sweeping tariff DOGE plans, then watered down how long can 196 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 2: the White House sustain action, and then watered. 197 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 5: Down apparently in perpetuity. It's happened effectively since January twentieth, 198 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 5: when he front ran his trade team in the Oval 199 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 5: Office that night, said tariffs were coming February first, immediately 200 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 5: pushed that out to February fourth, kicked it to March, 201 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 5: kicked it to later in March, and now here we 202 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 5: are on the cost of the week where we're going 203 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 5: to get stealed aluminum tariffs both at twenty five percent. 204 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 5: Tyreff's on dairy and lumbar coming in from Canada, which 205 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 5: you're going to be massively disruptive and get huge pushback 206 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 5: from the home builder industry. I think there's going to 207 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 5: be a continued probably four year long fits and starts 208 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 5: on the trade front, four year long. 209 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 2: She's depressing, So I need something. 210 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 4: So, I mean, Henrietta, should we expect any type of discussion, 211 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 4: rhetoric commentary from our good friends in Congress about global trade. 212 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that that's gonna tick up. One of 213 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 5: the things that's really noticeable to me in this Republican bill. 214 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 5: You were talking about the prospects for a shutdown earlier. 215 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 5: There's no bailout for farmers in this package, and if 216 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 5: this bill passes, that effectively means there won't be any 217 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:39,359 Speaker 5: further subsidization of the US agriculture industry until late September. 218 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 5: That's a really long time to weather what is about 219 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 5: to be a fifteen percent tire from China on all 220 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 5: of our agriculture sector, and then tariffs on eighty six 221 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 5: billion dollars worth of goods, mostly pork and beef, fruits 222 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 5: and vegetables, orange juice, things like that from Canada as 223 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 5: soon as March twenty fifth. So there's a big headwind 224 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 5: come in the agriculture sector's way, and that's going to 225 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 5: start to spur members to start talking that what. 226 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 2: Is the response of Henrietta TRACE's Washington to economic slow 227 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 2: down sort of kind of like recession or actual National 228 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 2: Bureau of Economic Research recession. 229 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 5: Man, this was incredible data sets from President Trump over 230 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 5: the weekend, effectively acknowledging that the five trillion dollars in 231 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 5: tax preferences that the Republican Party is going to write 232 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 5: is writing right now, will not be stimulative, will not 233 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 5: be enough to offset the potentiality of a recession driven 234 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 5: by global tariffs for the first time since the nineteen thirties. 235 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 5: So I think that was a real showing of President 236 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 5: Trump's hands and the cards that he's hearing from his 237 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 5: economic advisors behind the scenes. The problem is that Ambassador 238 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 5: Lthheiser and his current Trade and Commerce secretaries and Treasury 239 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 5: secretaries support the tyreff for agen to support this whole 240 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 5: idea the tariffs are the way to get everything that 241 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 5: we want. So I think that's really striking and everybody 242 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 5: should sit with that for a little while. 243 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 4: And you know, over the weekend, Henriette, I was thinking 244 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 4: about just the political calculus associated with terrorists. If I'm 245 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 4: in des Moines, Iowa, Okay, maybe I'm not a farmer, 246 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 4: and there's maybe you know a handful of big farming 247 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 4: conglomerates in Des Moines, Iowa, but everybody in Des Moines, Iowa, 248 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 4: in some way, shape or form, is kind of impacted 249 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 4: by the health of the of the farms in Des Moines, Iowa. 250 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 4: How is this politically doable for President Trump and his administration? 251 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 4: It would I would think it would be very difficult 252 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 4: for them. 253 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 5: You know what's interesting. I feel like it's doable for 254 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 5: Trump and the administration because he personally is so popular. 255 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 5: Who it's not doable for is the House and Senate Republicans. 256 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 5: So I would take Alaska as a perfect example. You 257 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 5: have states like Alaska that are heavily federally subsidized whose 258 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 5: you know, veterans are being fired three hundred and thirty 259 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 5: one veterans just in Alaska alone already from DOGE before 260 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 5: they even get to this big swap of eighty thousand 261 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 5: veterans they're planning to fire, and the big sweep of 262 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 5: federal employees they're planning to fire over the summer. You 263 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 5: have these individual Senators and individual House members in swing 264 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 5: districts or those votes that have gone back and forth, 265 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 5: and those members are already illustrating that they can't whether 266 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 5: it's storm they've canceled town halls. Democrats are sort of 267 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 5: gleefully pointing that out and holding their own so that 268 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 5: those disaffected boats come and speak. I don't think that 269 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 5: it's a problem for Trump. I think it's a problem 270 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 5: for the rest of the Republican conference. And that means 271 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 5: they have a year to get their legislation enacted, and 272 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 5: then they'll get shall act in the midterms, which is normal. 273 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 2: Hendriada quickly here. The Washington Post talks about firefighter training 274 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 2: at FEMA canceled. Bloomberg's got stories of this, that and 275 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 2: the other canceled this INFORBS aviation safety at risk among 276 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 2: those cuts. Is that true? Do you perceive that the 277 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 2: cuts are drifting into airplanes landing at Denver? 278 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 5: That is absolutely true. It's definitely the FA. I mean 279 00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 5: they're cutting everything from that to the Weather Service. So yes, 280 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 5: across the board, indiscriminate, completely ad hoc and inconsistent. And 281 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 5: then even adding to the uncertainty, there's reporting out this 282 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 5: morning saying, hey, yo, give us your your personal email 283 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,479 Speaker 5: address and your personal cell phone address, and we can 284 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 5: call you if we mistakenly fired you. So I think 285 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 5: there's just a lot of disruption. The jobs reports numbers 286 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 5: to be a real up and down for the next 287 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 5: couple months. 288 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 2: I got that email from Bloomberg this weekend. Hend here 289 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 2: to trace. Thank you so much our Most Valuable Guests 290 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 2: Most Valuable Player award Yes for Early two thousand twenty five. 291 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 292 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android 293 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 294 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 295 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty oh Canada. 296 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 2: Derektor Kluitt joins us now Executive veteror Managing editor of 297 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News in Toronto. Here on the path forward, Okay, Derek, 298 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 2: the Democrats the Liberals won. It's Mark Carney, ex Governor 299 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 2: Financial Monetary Guy England, Canada. The Conservatives are there if 300 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 2: there's an election. Who's ahead in the polls? 301 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 6: Well, currently the Conservatives still have a lead, but it 302 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 6: has narrowed a lot. When Trudeau was kind of, you know, 303 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 6: on his way out, very unpopular Prime minister at the 304 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 6: end of last year. The Conservatives led in most polls 305 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 6: by more than twenty points. And now if you look 306 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 6: at the polling that takes into account, this is prior 307 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 6: to yesterday's vote that made Carney the Liberal leader. But 308 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 6: where pollsters were asking theoretically, who would you vote for 309 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 6: if Carney was in the race, Conservatives have kind of 310 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 6: a narrow lead, about thirty three percent of decided voters, 311 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 6: and the Liberals would under Carney have about twenty eight 312 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 6: percent of voters. So it's going to be tight, and 313 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 6: there's going to be, you know, probably an election campaign 314 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 6: coming soon. 315 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 2: I can just see us up in Autawa, Toronto and 316 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 2: now and now we go to the key swing state whatever, 317 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 2: what's the Ohio of Canada? Like like Carneie and excuse me, 318 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 2: I don't know how to pronounce it because I'm an 319 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 2: ugly American. Who's the Conservative Canadate again? Derek Pierre, Pouliev, Pauliev, 320 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 2: Paulijev and Carney where's their Ohio? Where's the swing state? 321 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 2: Among the provinces? 322 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 6: I mean, this gets this gets decided really in the 323 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,680 Speaker 6: suburbs of Toronto, the suburbs of Montreal, and the suburbs 324 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 6: of Vancouver. The Conservatives have more or less a lock 325 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 6: on most of rural Canada and much of the West. 326 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 6: The Liberals, you know, historically and certainly under Justin Trudeau, 327 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 6: were extremely strong, and you know in the core centers 328 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 6: like day on downtown Toronto and and you know in 329 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,879 Speaker 6: certainly large parts of Quebec. So this is this is 330 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 6: the way to think about this is more like it's 331 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 6: it's the suburbs of Philadelphia. That's the Ohio of Canada. 332 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 2: Bucks County, Don Mills is the Bucks County. 333 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 6: That's right, That's right, Derek. 334 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 4: What's the feeling amongst the average Canadian about what's happening 335 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 4: here in the US and how we're kind of interacting 336 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 4: with you guys in terms of tariffs and rhetoric and 337 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:10,679 Speaker 4: out of this administration. 338 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 6: The first word that comes to mind is anger, and 339 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 6: I mean that it's outright anger. There was a poll 340 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 6: last week that was published asking Canadians how they view 341 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 6: the United States, whether it's an ally country and enemy 342 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 6: country or a neutral. But the first time, I think 343 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 6: ever ally and enemy are equal. Thirty percent of Canadians 344 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 6: believe the US is an ally thirty percent say enemy, 345 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 6: and most of the rest say neutral. And that is 346 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:46,880 Speaker 6: you know, I think a year ago those numbers would 347 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 6: not have looked anything like that. That is entirely because 348 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 6: of the trade war and the fifty first state taunts 349 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 6: and justin Trudeau. I mean, every poll that you see 350 00:20:56,560 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 6: shows just a huge level of opposition to anything like 351 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 6: a fifty first state idea. It's an eighty to ninety 352 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 6: percent range. It's similar across the country. There is there 353 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 6: is no political appetit up here for discussion about any 354 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 6: type of union union with the US. 355 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 2: Good morning on your community across Canada in America. Derek 356 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 2: Kluette with us right now from Bloomberg News in Toronto. 357 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 4: Puskre what do we expect to hear from mister Carney 358 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 4: here in the coming days and weeks and months of 359 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 4: his you know, going forward. 360 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 6: It's going to be a really fast transition from Trudeau 361 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 6: to Karney. The two men will meet today. We expect 362 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 6: Carney will be sworn in probably by the end of 363 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 6: the week, and that he's really going to try to 364 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 6: drag the Liberals from the left much more to the center, 365 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 6: to be a more business friendly face, more focused on growth, 366 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 6: and that he sees a sort of his you know, 367 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 6: his pathway because because he you know he won the 368 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 6: race because he's seen as the economic guy and we're 369 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 6: if not in an economic crisis, then on the precipice 370 00:21:59,280 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 6: of one. 371 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 2: What is the nature of the election. I mean, you've 372 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 2: got tenure at the Globe and Mail, which I read 373 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 2: pretty much every day. Good morning to David Shrimman writing 374 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 2: for the Globe and Mail and the Boston Globe. Is well, Derek. 375 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:15,880 Speaker 2: How does the election differ from in America? Like does 376 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 2: Celine Dion show up the Wednesday before the election? I mean, 377 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 2: how does it work? 378 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 6: It's an extremely quick election. Yeah, when we get when 379 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 6: when we get into a general election, it'll be about 380 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 6: six six weeks long. Uses the British parliamentary system and 381 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 6: you can have, as as Justin Trudeau had for most 382 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 6: of his time, a sort of semi coalition government where 383 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 6: you have to where you have to pull together neo 384 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 6: multiple parties if one party does not get fifty percent 385 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 6: of the seats in the House. So it'll be quick, 386 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 6: and I think this one will be will be quite 387 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 6: personal and nasty because there is a lot of animus 388 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 6: built up between between Pierre Pouliev and the Liberal side. 389 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 2: Michael Barr wants to know do They campaign by like saying, 390 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:06,120 Speaker 2: if I'm elected, I'll save the Toronto maple leafs. I mean, 391 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 2: you know, how does Derek could Carney or the other 392 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 2: guy say I'm going to fix the Toronto maple leafs 393 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 2: or is that the un remarxible. 394 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 6: Mark Carney is a huge Edmonton Oilers fan, so I 395 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,719 Speaker 6: don't think he has any interest in saving the Toronto 396 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 6: maple leafs. 397 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,440 Speaker 2: Are there any liberals in Edmonton? 398 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 6: Actually Edmonton is Vonton is the most liberal part of 399 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,640 Speaker 6: Alberta by far. They do, they do have one one 400 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 6: seat out there. 401 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 2: Did they trot out like does Bobby or get trotted out? 402 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 2: I mean, I mean I saw the Gretzky up war 403 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,919 Speaker 2: with Canada in the series in that but you know, 404 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 2: what should we look for in the election? Kissing babies 405 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 2: at hockey games or is there a different approach? 406 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,199 Speaker 6: Well there will be some of that, but you know, 407 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 6: Canadian politics is a more understated affair, you know, compared 408 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 6: with with US politics. I mean, what what what what 409 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,200 Speaker 6: you will see is you will see the Canada. It's 410 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,439 Speaker 6: just over and over, just like they were over and 411 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 6: over again in the seventh Swing States. They will be 412 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 6: over and over again in you know, in Mississauga, Ontario, 413 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 6: and you know, and and the suburbs north of Montreal, 414 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:17,679 Speaker 6: and in Richmond, British Columbia. You know, because most of 415 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 6: the three hundred and forty or so House seats are 416 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 6: kind of already decided. It's going to come down to, 417 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 6: you know, probably sixty or sixty or seventy swing seats. 418 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 6: But Canadian politics is also volatile. Stuff can move really quickly. 419 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 2: I got twenty seconds. Derek Sparta wants to know if 420 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 2: he does a road trip sending Lisa, Michael bar Paul 421 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:42,400 Speaker 2: Sweedey and Media Canada. Should we go to Toronto or Ottawa 422 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 2: to do our show up there? 423 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,120 Speaker 6: You should one hundred percent come to Toronto and we'd 424 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 6: love to have you. 425 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:49,120 Speaker 2: See. 426 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 4: We love Canada. 427 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,719 Speaker 2: It's amazing. And then with the we didn't even ask 428 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,880 Speaker 2: him what Looney's going to do. Derek, thank you so much. 429 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 2: Derek de Claude was just huge journalism experience. 430 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,919 Speaker 4: One person in my life that has anything ever negative 431 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:05,679 Speaker 4: to say about Canada. 432 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 2: No, we love Kenneday we're talking. I'm not on speaking 433 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 2: terms of Lusia, but I am a. 434 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 4: US at a big portion of Canada viewing US as 435 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 4: enemy it's just so disappointing. 436 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 437 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,959 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 438 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 439 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 440 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 441 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 2: Right now, mister bitterly with us with a city group 442 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 2: out of Notre Dame. Just exquisite academics out of Notre Dame, 443 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 2: and we're thrilled she could join us this morning. We 444 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 2: have a taxware investment up twenty percent two years in 445 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,439 Speaker 2: a row. Now we have all this emotion as well. 446 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 2: Are you taking profits? I mean that's in the old 447 00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 2: days what we used to do. Now we have wealth. Man, 448 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 2: what are you doing about the tax situation? If everybody's 449 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 2: got ginormous gains on their portfolio. 450 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 7: Well, I think the really interesting thing for US investors 451 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 7: is that there's plenty of strategies that are tax aware 452 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 7: where you can actually do that rebalancing without necessarily having 453 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 7: to take the gain. 454 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 2: Probably do that. 455 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,400 Speaker 7: So basically, what you can do is generate passive losses 456 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 7: within portfolios such that if you want to rebalance, you're 457 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,880 Speaker 7: not actually penalized for rebalancing and then following the benchmark index. 458 00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 7: And there's even more innovative strategies because in a bull market, 459 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 7: it's going to be difficult to actually continue to generate 460 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 7: those losses unless you're adding capital every single month, and 461 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 7: so what some of the more innovative strategies are doing 462 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 7: are using futures and options to be able to do 463 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 7: that as well. But that being said, Tom, I think 464 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,439 Speaker 7: your question is more around looking at the market that 465 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 7: we're in and actually saying where should you have exposure, 466 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,439 Speaker 7: and that is something we did some substantial rebalancing in 467 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 7: Q four of last year when we were just looking 468 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 7: at we couldn't have predicted deep seek or anything like that. 469 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 7: We're just looking at the outsized representation of the mag 470 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 7: seven and saying we see earnings broadening out this year, 471 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,400 Speaker 7: so let's be a little bit more balanced in terms 472 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 7: of our equity exposure. And we also diversified internationally. So 473 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 7: if you are someone who came into this year where 474 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 7: you have fixed income exposure, you have international exposure, you 475 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,159 Speaker 7: weren't overly exposed to those megacap names. Well, you're not 476 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 7: happy right now seeing some of the uncertainty and volatility. 477 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 7: You're pretty well positioned in terms of being able to 478 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 7: weather this storm. 479 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 4: What are you hearing from your clients just in the 480 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 4: last several weeks with this sell off in the markets, 481 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 4: We're off in the s and P of five hundred, 482 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,679 Speaker 4: you know, seven eight percent from the recent highs. What 483 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 4: are you hearing from your clients? Is there a level 484 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,960 Speaker 4: of concern panic? What are you hearing well? 485 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 7: When you look at how the market is reacting, I 486 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 7: think very simply, it's been a pretty orderly selloff. You 487 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 7: can even see that in levels of the vics. I 488 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 7: think our investors in wealth management we are lucky because 489 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,399 Speaker 7: they're long term capital and so they're really playing the 490 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 7: long game here. But I think the big question on 491 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 7: the table right now is we started this year from 492 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,840 Speaker 7: a position of strength. You could talk about the broadening 493 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 7: out story in US equity earnings, you could talk about 494 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 7: the six and a half trillion dollars in cash on 495 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 7: the sidelines, inflation coming down, even the fact that FED 496 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 7: funds have peaked. And now the question is looking at 497 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,119 Speaker 7: this economic data that's coming in, particularly when it comes 498 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 7: to sentiment, consumer confidence, as well as the employment backdrop. 499 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 7: People are wondering all of these details are they telling 500 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 7: us a different economic story? 501 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 2: Forty eight seconds before we go to the market opening. 502 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 2: What does buy the dip mean? 503 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 7: To Kristin Bitterley, I think by the dip means we 504 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 7: have not yet capitulated. However, there are opportunities, especially right now, 505 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 7: large cap quality free cash flow generating names. If I'm 506 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 7: buying the dip and actually not just picking a moment 507 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 7: from market timing, but going on the way down, I 508 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 7: would lean into quality free cash flow. 509 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 4: So there you go, quality free cash flowing. 510 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 2: Are you allowed to give us a name? Or do 511 00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 2: you go in the time out here? 512 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 7: If you do that, well, I mean single stocks, Unfortunately, 513 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 7: I would go into the timeout chair. 514 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 6: Tom. 515 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 7: What I will say from a sector perspective is you 516 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 7: can look at some of the just go From a 517 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 7: size perspective, large cat, profitable free cash flow, even some 518 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 7: of the dividend grower type names would be beneficial as well. 519 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 2: Kristi Bitterley with us here on managing emotions. Is cash 520 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 2: a constructive holding right now? 521 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 7: I think it's part of a portfolio in terms of 522 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 7: maintaining liquidity and being able to buy into some of 523 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 7: these opportunities. I think the thing that you always run into, 524 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 7: going back to this concept of market timing is for 525 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,640 Speaker 7: investors who believe they're either all in or all out, 526 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 7: that is not productive. 527 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,720 Speaker 2: She's killing me. You're a Notre Dame. You're killing it. 528 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 2: Show me one minute in economics at Notre Dame where 529 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 2: quote market timing unquote worked. 530 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 7: It never worked market timing. That's the thing is if 531 00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 7: the stats are actually on average, if you miss the 532 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 7: two best days in a given calendar year, you erode 533 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 7: your perannum gains by nearly eighty percent. And so the 534 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 7: reason for that is you tend to have clustered volatility 535 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 7: in the market, where essentially the sell offs are followed 536 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 7: by some of the best days. And so what we 537 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 7: tend to see is if in this type of environment, 538 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,120 Speaker 7: if you're very nervous, if you go all out and 539 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,479 Speaker 7: you're in cash, yes there's some attractive yields there, but 540 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 7: those are temporary. Your long term earnings are certainly going 541 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 7: to suffer. 542 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,479 Speaker 2: Shout out Ryan Detrick today out on Twitter had a 543 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 2: great tweet on this Paul Sweeney about the x number 544 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 2: of days single days like the day's duke loses in basketball, 545 00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 2: The single days if you're not in the market when 546 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 2: it moves. Miss Bitterley's number is eighty percent of your 547 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 2: gain eeveroration. 548 00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 4: So we've heard that before. So we've seen a lot 549 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 4: of policy driven uncertainty in the marketplace over the last 550 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 4: couple of months. Are you suggesting to your clients look 551 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 4: past that focus on the long because you can make 552 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 4: short term recession calls, you can make inflation calls, stagflation. 553 00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 4: There's a lot of concerns short term, but you make 554 00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 4: the call to look past it. 555 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 7: So what I would say is the number one concern 556 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 7: that our investors and the number one question that they 557 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 7: really have is I think coming into this year, there 558 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 7: was comfort in terms of when President Trump won the election. 559 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 7: There was this overarching concept of pro market that SMP 560 00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 7: five hundred is a barometer for success and the ten 561 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 7: year below five percent. I think some of the most 562 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 7: recent commentary where taking a victory lap because yields have 563 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 7: come down and what that means for mortgages and other 564 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,960 Speaker 7: parts of the market are causing people to question a 565 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 7: little bit. But going back to what I said earlier, 566 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 7: asset allocation has worked in these markets. That actually is 567 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 7: something healthy and it's something that we haven't really seen 568 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:51,400 Speaker 7: over the past couple of years. So correlation fixed income equity, 569 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 7: the lack of correlation there is actually working in your favor. 570 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 7: So diversification, asset allocation are where to be. 571 00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 2: Do you own a tesla like a car? 572 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,200 Speaker 7: Do I actually own a Tesla myself? 573 00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 2: No? 574 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 3: I do not. 575 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 2: I do not. It's painful. Missus Keane was on the 576 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 2: phone with somebody that owns a Tesla. Wow. Yeah, it's 577 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 2: like depreciation city. Tesla down fourteen, it was like a 578 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,400 Speaker 2: two fifty three indication. I didn't even mention it to 579 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 2: forty eight on Tesla right now? Is it five? 580 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:30,720 Speaker 4: And I still bak you baby baq function Bloomberg quote. 581 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 2: Five zero percent. Yeah, it's working out. 582 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 7: But even if you look at that, the rally post 583 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,400 Speaker 7: the election was so extreme, so that volatility to the upside, 584 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:40,880 Speaker 7: you're gonna have to have some of it to the 585 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 7: downside as well. 586 00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 2: Well. Back to September exactly, That's how I look. We're 587 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,960 Speaker 2: back to September twenty twenty four. Notre Dame March madness. 588 00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:49,680 Speaker 2: Come on, no, I. 589 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 7: Know, I was just at Notre Dame last week. I was, 590 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 7: I was Our women are faring better than are men. 591 00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 2: So yes, football season, Christy there is better than good. 592 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 2: Kristin Bidderley, thank you so much. She is with Sidney Group. 593 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 594 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 595 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 596 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 597 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 598 00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:26,320 Speaker 2: We need some joy. The newspapers Lisa Monteo, Lisa make 599 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 2: us last. 600 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 8: Well, see now, I'm gonna make you not last. It's 601 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 8: not such an upfeat story, Okay, It's a look into 602 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 8: the job market. It's just showing how more older Americans 603 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 8: are turning down to blue collar jobs and side hustles 604 00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:43,880 Speaker 8: because they're getting squeezed out of the white collar jobs. 605 00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 8: They're saying their age salary expectations, they are being beat out, 606 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,320 Speaker 8: you know, for my younger workers. So they're going into 607 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 8: truck driving custodians. Some are taking part work as security 608 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 8: guards uber uber eats on the side because a lot 609 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 8: of them actually still have debt from getting their masters, 610 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,479 Speaker 8: so they still have to pay off longer. 611 00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:06,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, retiring it. 612 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 4: Somebody might do it at sixty one back for example, 613 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 4: somebody might try to retire at sixty one. Yeah, no, 614 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:13,800 Speaker 4: they can't. 615 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,560 Speaker 8: They can't, just because you have to save up more. 616 00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 8: And look at how much you have left. 617 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,799 Speaker 2: And now we're getting out to work. Long sitting in Prague, 618 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:26,839 Speaker 2: the Czech Republic, having a lovely like moonlit dinner out 619 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 2: on all by myself, out in a little cafe, and 620 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 2: everyone around me was older than American. This has got 621 00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 2: to be pushing twenty five years ago when Matt Winkler 622 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 2: sent me over there, and the answer is, I predict 623 00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,799 Speaker 2: thousands of retires in America will go abroad. Tip of 624 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:49,400 Speaker 2: the iceberg here right now, it's just brutal. And I 625 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 2: make no bones about it, folks, I can't afford to retire, 626 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 2: like you know, fossils like me are like you're kidding me. 627 00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,200 Speaker 2: Mister Bohmberg, good morning, how are you, sir? 628 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,320 Speaker 8: Next? Have you ever had beef? 629 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:09,200 Speaker 2: Yes, there's a little place on your duff Fien, right 630 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 2: by a hotel Dabisson. Of course, the best beef burgunna 631 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:17,240 Speaker 2: I'll take. And it's they use costco utensils. It's like cheap. 632 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:21,880 Speaker 2: It's like it's the rooster it's called but that's. 633 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,640 Speaker 8: The point because it's cheap. Okay. So there's this restaurant 634 00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 8: in Paris. It's called stick with me here Le bon chartel. 635 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 8: I'm going in Paris. It's been this destination for like 636 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:36,160 Speaker 8: cheap French food since like eighteen ninety six. It was 637 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,279 Speaker 8: on the Netflix show Emily in Paris, so it became 638 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 8: popular again. But theirs is in American dollars ten dollars 639 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 8: and eighty cents, and they've kept it that way for 640 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,600 Speaker 8: four years because they want to make it more affordable 641 00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,279 Speaker 8: to people. But they're saying it's harder for them to 642 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:54,160 Speaker 8: keep that price because everything is getting expensive, the electricity 643 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 8: for their restaurant, you know, the wages for the staff, 644 00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,920 Speaker 8: the price of the beef. So what they're doing instead, 645 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,520 Speaker 8: it is when prices soar too much, they'll drop certain 646 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 8: items from the menu, like the beef. 647 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 2: You know. 648 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 1: It is. 649 00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 8: Sometimes they'll take it off for like a week, and 650 00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 8: then they'll bring it back, you know, because if it 651 00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:16,080 Speaker 8: gets too expensive. But I need to try this, it 652 00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 8: sounds delicious. 653 00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:19,200 Speaker 4: I haven't been in Parison a long time. 654 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:20,839 Speaker 2: I need to get I mean, I. 655 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:22,879 Speaker 4: Got it, but where's the Europe now? One a wayste 656 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:23,480 Speaker 4: I missed my. 657 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 2: Want to trust Europe. Yeah. 658 00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 8: And finally, Tom, I think I'm gonna have to go 659 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,480 Speaker 8: for the super big card at Costco because usually I 660 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:34,759 Speaker 8: keep mine to like a one cart. 661 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:38,440 Speaker 2: Maybe I'll have another, but they I've seen you two cards. 662 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,600 Speaker 8: But they have the big trolleys, and I think I 663 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,960 Speaker 8: have to go for it because they're massive one hundred 664 00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:47,200 Speaker 8: inch TVs. They're hundred hits one hundred inch. Do you 665 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,160 Speaker 8: need a TV that big? I don't know. But they're 666 00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,960 Speaker 8: about fifteen hundred to about thirty five hundred dollars that's 667 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 8: the range for them, and they're so much hotcakes and 668 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,560 Speaker 8: they're suddenly like crazy, people are buying them up one 669 00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,600 Speaker 8: because social media made them popular and people started boxing 670 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,480 Speaker 8: these because the box is like ungodly, like it's huge, 671 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,040 Speaker 8: and so people started posting this. But they're saying, which 672 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 8: interesting is that the shift in Costco, Like the people 673 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 8: who come through the store are now wealthier, so they're 674 00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 8: putting in a lot more of these higher end products 675 00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,759 Speaker 8: into Costco now, like a four hundred thousand dollars diamond ring. 676 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,719 Speaker 4: They get TV's everywhere at the shop rate on Root 677 00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 4: thirty five on wall Tonship. They have yeah, those big 678 00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,040 Speaker 4: massive TVs to stay there by the checkout. 679 00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I'll take that. 680 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:29,839 Speaker 3: I don't get it. 681 00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 2: Yeah crazy, It's fascinating. Lisa wan Tello, thank you so 682 00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,440 Speaker 2: much the newspapers this morning. 683 00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:41,759 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 684 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 685 00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,480 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot com, 686 00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,480 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 687 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,880 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 688 00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,200 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal