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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg I'm

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Speaker 1: about a single bust chart right now. We'll do this

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Speaker 1: with David Kelly, Chief Global Strategy is to JPMorgan and

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Speaker 1: he mentioned earlier in the hour the sea word courage,

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Speaker 1: the courage to act. Let's look at a single bust

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Speaker 1: chart which defines how lonely Europe is right now. This

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Speaker 1: is Swiss twenty year with a normal yield. Here in

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Speaker 1: August of two thousand and seven, the great deflation, we

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Speaker 1: flatten and we've just ron over again. And I would

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Speaker 1: suggest David that this is a linkage of courage into

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Speaker 1: eerie and not only for the ECB, but for all

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Speaker 1: of us. The theory of how we've extricated ourselves from

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Speaker 1: this crisis is really under test. Oh yes, it is

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Speaker 1: because one of the things that's happened, you know, there

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Speaker 1: there are things that are pushed down in faction of

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Speaker 1: the long run, including information technology. One of the big

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Speaker 1: things is QUI basically causes as surprises go up more

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Speaker 1: than real output um. It also tends to help push

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Speaker 1: income towards upper income individuals. The snag is upper income

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Speaker 1: individuals don't spend the money exactly. And so what happens

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Speaker 1: is you produce a hundred dollars worth of output, you

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Speaker 1: produce a hundred dollars income with it, but the income

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Speaker 1: doesn't actually come around by the output. So this, this

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Speaker 1: process of actually this growing wealth gap and growing income

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Speaker 1: gap is actually sucking demand out of the global economy.

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Speaker 1: So you've got to do something, oddly enough, very egalitarian

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Speaker 1: to try and actually generate more aggregat And what's so

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Speaker 1: important here, and I continue to go back this. I

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Speaker 1: know I can do this with you, with your work

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Speaker 1: with Bob Goodman a million years ago. Look at the

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Speaker 1: X axis. We've been doing this for a decade exactly.

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Speaker 1: It's not one your inner three year in Mama Marvin

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Speaker 1: good Friends, which they do a two year experiment. It

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Speaker 1: is the definition of year experiment. How do we extricate

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Speaker 1: ourselves off the XX Well, I think, I think actually

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Speaker 1: we need to look at this distribution issue and the

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Speaker 1: issue of aggurate amount of the economy itself. Oddly enough,

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Speaker 1: if we think about taxation and spending in a way

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Speaker 1: to give more money to lower middle income people, they

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Speaker 1: will spend it. Then you get hundred dollars worth of

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Speaker 1: spending for hundred dollars worth of output, and suddenly the

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Speaker 1: economy picks up. It's what I mean. I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: that because I believe in great income redistribution as a

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Speaker 1: is a good thing in general, but actually it's an

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Speaker 1: economic palette of it probably would work, but you can't

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Speaker 1: fix it through monetary policy. Low interest rates will not

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Speaker 1: fix this, friends, Right, Okay, David, let's you know, take

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Speaker 1: it the other way around. If there is a recession,

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Speaker 1: does do central banks have enough tools to do with it? Um? No?

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Speaker 1: But but but I would argue that the what central

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Speaker 1: banks could do it was what they could always do,

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Speaker 1: which is that can they can be a buyer of

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Speaker 1: last resort and they can protect the financial system and

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Speaker 1: then allow the economics recovered by itself. I think the

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Speaker 1: economy will tend to recover by itself anyway. But um,

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Speaker 1: I don't think that you know, another twenty five basis

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Speaker 1: points or fifty basis points would actually stimulate economic growth.

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Speaker 1: It hasn't done it in Japan, it hasn't done it

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Speaker 1: in Europe. I don't really think it did is in

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Speaker 1: the United States either. I think that was more cyclical

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Speaker 1: forces which pulled the economy back up, natural cyclical forces

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Speaker 1: rather than rather than monetary stimulus. So I'm not too

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Speaker 1: worried about them not having tools in their tool kit,

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Speaker 1: because frankly, I think they're ineffective anyway. But I do

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Speaker 1: think we need to think very honestly and carefully about

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Speaker 1: how how is it that that monetary policy is not

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Speaker 1: pushing up in flasher pushing up aggregate demand, and think

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Speaker 1: about how do you get aggregate demand going. Let's just

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Speaker 1: think about how do you get demand going in an economy.

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Speaker 1: And you can do it by giving more money to

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Speaker 1: lower middle income consumers, or you can create more certainty

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Speaker 1: for businesses, and that means get rid of tarr trade wars,

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Speaker 1: get trades certainty, get immigration certainly, try to have more

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Speaker 1: policy certainty, and that will promote more investment spending, and

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Speaker 1: that can also give your aggurate amount. But you've really

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Speaker 1: got to think directly about how do you get demand

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Speaker 1: going in an economy, And that's really outside of the

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Speaker 1: purview of central banks, right, And that's one of the

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Speaker 1: concerns actually that Japan has had to grapple with for

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Speaker 1: for many decades. Is Europe becoming like Japan? Uh? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think there there's there are some similarities. Of course,

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Speaker 1: I think you've got demographics not as badly about as

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Speaker 1: in Japan, but you've got some problems. But I think

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Speaker 1: you do have some positives. And the unemployment rate is

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Speaker 1: still coming down in Europe. They've still got about eight

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Speaker 1: percent unemployment in Japan, It's like two and a half

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Speaker 1: percent um. So Europe has got more unutilized resources, and

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Speaker 1: they also didn't have the huge asset bubble that really

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Speaker 1: propelled Japan to the problems it had. And and the

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Speaker 1: third advantage of that Europe has is despite the problems

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Speaker 1: we have in easily or certainly the problems we have

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Speaker 1: in Greece, the aggregate debt of Eurozone countries is far

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Speaker 1: smaller relative to your zone GDP than is the case

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Speaker 1: in Japan. So I think Japan has gone is a

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Speaker 1: lot further down that sort of miserable path than Europe is.

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Speaker 1: Let's clear markets, David All, he knows his chart. He

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Speaker 1: and I lived in I'm just making this up quick.

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Speaker 1: Folks were throwing this out, Jimmy. I'll get this to

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Speaker 1: you in a bit. This is allied Irish Bank from

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Speaker 1: another time in place and what the Irish did, and

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Speaker 1: they had the courage to clear the market going from

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Speaker 1: five thousand essentially zero five euros or whatever it is

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Speaker 1: per share. Is all we're talking about is Europe has

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Speaker 1: a fear they can't clear their troubled financial system. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think I think that's that's obviously it's it's a

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Speaker 1: pro Irish. Well, well, they Irish. You know, that was

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Speaker 1: very controversial, controversial because what they iris is they and

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Speaker 1: they had the courage to get out front of everybody

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Speaker 1: else and clear the banking. Also, they also suffered a

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Speaker 1: huge recession because of it, and they and they did

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Speaker 1: take on a lot of responsibility upon the Irish people

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Speaker 1: for stuff that really was the responsibility of international investors.

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Speaker 1: I think history is on, you know, unclear and whether

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Speaker 1: they did the right thing or not, but Ireland has

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Speaker 1: What they did do is they took the tough fiscal

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Speaker 1: medicine they made, They made the tough fiscal choices they

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Speaker 1: they and the population put up with it. And so

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Speaker 1: the Ireland has bounced back. Um, but I think that.

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Speaker 1: But to be honestly, ours political system actually works rather well.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, relative to what you see in

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Speaker 1: the US or in Britain, there are relatively logical choices

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Speaker 1: being made by the major parties on both sides to

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Speaker 1: keep Oreland on a relatively even keel. And and then

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Speaker 1: I think is also helping. Politics doesn't matter. I could

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Speaker 1: just see you, me, Vanni, Quinn, Francie, all of us

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Speaker 1: in Dublin going over the success of the Irish clearing

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Speaker 1: of markets. It was truly courageous. As David mentioned, a

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Speaker 1: real debate about how Ireland did it. But boy, that

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Speaker 1: was something back in oh seven, oh eight oh nine,

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Speaker 1: David Kelly, thank you so much. With JP Morgan, asset manager.

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Speaker 1: One of the joys of my year is the Quinnipiac

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Speaker 1: conference without just a thousand college kids. It's a great,

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Speaker 1: great moment in New York. And even better, Francis Donald

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Speaker 1: joins me on stage this afternoon over at one of

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Speaker 1: our larger hotels. She is with Manu life uh and

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Speaker 1: in strategy and economics there as well. Francis, it's great

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Speaker 1: to get up on stage with twelve kids or whatever

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Speaker 1: it is, and explain the idiocy of the media and

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Speaker 1: the frenzy in hysteria right now. Let's let's pretend we're

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Speaker 1: Quentin Pia this afternoon. What is the hysteria right now

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Speaker 1: that most upset you that we need to ignore? Well,

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Speaker 1: I certainly take a different approach than you do. Tom.

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Speaker 1: What I'm going to talk about today for the first

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Speaker 1: time in the several years that we've been doing this

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Speaker 1: is we're at end cycle. This is the first possible

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Speaker 1: recession that these kids have seen in their adult lifetime,

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Speaker 1: and that many of us in this industry will experience firsthand.

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Speaker 1: So you're calling recession you have before. So we certainly

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Speaker 1: have been looking at the very hot or the much

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Speaker 1: higher probability of a recession, and it looks like the

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Speaker 1: markets have come into this framework as well. The big

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Speaker 1: question that I have now and I have been a

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Speaker 1: recession believer, is that the FED has moved devish ly

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Speaker 1: in my view, much earlier than I had initially expected.

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Speaker 1: Have they actually managed to engineer a soft landing by

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Speaker 1: using forward guidance, by using their dot plot to inject

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Speaker 1: some easing into this market that actually reduces my probability

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Speaker 1: of a recession. It remains to be seen. So let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the doom crew. Because you walked into the room, Francis,

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Speaker 1: and the first thing you said was I think of

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Speaker 1: recessions in and you guys always come at me. So

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Speaker 1: let's talk about it. Why twenty what's so special about

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Speaker 1: isn't actually a year where something blows up. It's not

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Speaker 1: a two thousand eight scenario. It's a year where the

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Speaker 1: model signal to us that the combination of fiscal tightening,

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Speaker 1: monetary policy tightening, and some tariffs way on GDP and

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Speaker 1: we get close to about zero percent. And this is

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Speaker 1: where the decimal start to matter. And this is why

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Speaker 1: I actually care about geopolitical risk more than I did

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Speaker 1: two years ago, because this is a year where decimal

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Speaker 1: points will matter, where the math will matter if we

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Speaker 1: actually flip into sub zero. Present grows. So there was

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Speaker 1: another group of paper at the back end of twenty

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Speaker 1: seen that said, look at what's going to happen here

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Speaker 1: is we're gonna return towards trend growth. And as the

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Speaker 1: economy decelerates back towards trend growth, there's going to be

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Speaker 1: some people that confuse that for a trip towards a recession.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm trying to work out whether this is a

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Speaker 1: trip back towards trend growth or a trip towards recession.

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Speaker 1: How do you get the clarity between the two things

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Speaker 1: as to where we're heading. Well, in this case, we're

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Speaker 1: both right. So is a trip back down a deceleration?

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Speaker 1: My concern is those who call for recession. There's still

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Speaker 1: a lot of fiscal stimulus in this pipeline. The bigger

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Speaker 1: confusion isn't twenty recession session, it's what happened in Q

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Speaker 1: four and Q one. We have seen substantial distortions to

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Speaker 1: the economic data in Q one. I don't think they

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Speaker 1: lift until we start getting March data, which is only

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Speaker 1: going to come through in the middle of April. But

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Speaker 1: to me, starting in that segment, you are going to

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Speaker 1: see a recceleration of Q two Q three, and the

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Speaker 1: recessionistas might back off that pedal a bit. But let's

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Speaker 1: keep our timelines very clear here. We still have have

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Speaker 1: some breathing room before the negative growth prints. Financial conditions

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Speaker 1: materially looser over the last several months. Off the back

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Speaker 1: of all of this, we now have a rights market

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Speaker 1: that is pricing rate cuts. Do you think that's a

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Speaker 1: little bit too premature, or do you think that's the

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Speaker 1: right move? Hit, I have a different perspective on how

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Speaker 1: the market is looking at rate cuts. So let's say

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Speaker 1: I think we have like thirty basis points priced in

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Speaker 1: for to me, that's not the market saying we have

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Speaker 1: one and change cuts. It's the market saying we have

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Speaker 1: about a thirty percent probability of a hundred basis point move.

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Speaker 1: Because if the Fed moves in, it's not going to

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Speaker 1: be by basis points. That's not going to be enough.

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Speaker 1: When you're this close to the zero lower bound, you've

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Speaker 1: got a shock and awe. It's going to be three

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Speaker 1: to four cuts if they choose to go that route.

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Speaker 1: Let's go back six months. Do we have wage inflation?

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Speaker 1: We certainly have wage inflation. It's deflating, Is that what

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Speaker 1: I'm getting here? No, it means that it's not filtering

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Speaker 1: through into our CPI or pp I data to the

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Speaker 1: same extent. A variety of structural factors, globalization, the inability

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Speaker 1: to pass on these cost pressures that come through. We'll

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Speaker 1: probably see it in margins with about a nine month lag.

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Speaker 1: But the question is, even if we were to see

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Speaker 1: two or two and a half percent pc with the

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Speaker 1: FED respond I don't think so. We just said David

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Speaker 1: Kelley and with Michael Faroli's great work at JP Morgan

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Speaker 1: and the new terminal rate, is this two percent bogey

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Speaker 1: on inflation, on nostalgic thing of the past. Absolutely, does

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Speaker 1: it need to be set at one point eight or

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Speaker 1: something like that in my view probably? I mean, look

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Speaker 1: at the City Surprise Index on inflation, not the economic one,

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Speaker 1: but the inflation one. We have seen eight years where

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Speaker 1: inflation data has come in below economist expectations eight years.

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Speaker 1: The only reason Francis Donald brings up the City Surprising

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Speaker 1: nextus because she and to Bias Lefkovic are the biggest

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Speaker 1: Montreal Canadian fans and that it's waiting for us to

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Speaker 1: get to ice helcake. You know, It's just it's had

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Speaker 1: nothing to do with with City group, but everything to

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Speaker 1: do so. I actually saw to Bias earlier this week

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Speaker 1: and the two things we talked about where the Montreal

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Speaker 1: Canadians and the FED. What was the most interesting, The

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Speaker 1: most important one was drug Canadians. Well, and in both cases,

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Speaker 1: I think we have some concerns leading forward into next year.

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Speaker 1: But but let's let's take this forward mantro was terrible

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Speaker 1: last year at full disclosure, folks, I bleed lesabitan, but

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Speaker 1: they've really done a lot better this year. Is that

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Speaker 1: where the FED is six months from now? Now? I

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Speaker 1: think the FED needs to put itself on the sidelines.

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Speaker 1: If the FED can be successful, I think Mr Powell

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Speaker 1: agrees with you. And so when I hear that there's

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Speaker 1: days like today's with a significant amount of FED speak,

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Speaker 1: I get a little curvous. I don't want to see

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Speaker 1: a lot of FED speak. I want the Fed out

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Speaker 1: of the picture so that risk asses can rally. I'm

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Speaker 1: looking it yields John mentions is sophisticated yield curve in version,

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Speaker 1: which he does on the real yield one PM on Fridays.

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Speaker 1: That's all great, but what it means is more financial

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Speaker 1: repression for our listeners, right and it just continues forward? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean yield caravan version. What is it telling us

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Speaker 1: that we didn't already know? Growth expectations are low, the

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Speaker 1: Feds on the sidelines, and there isn't a lot of inflation. Sure,

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Speaker 1: there are probably some distortions here. I'm sure you've had

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Speaker 1: dozens of guests that explain that the level might not

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Speaker 1: be as indicative as it has in the past. But

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Speaker 1: a flat ter inverted yield curve is telling us what

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Speaker 1: we should already see in the data, which is that

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Speaker 1: we're end cycle. The FED may have gone too far

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Speaker 1: and it's probably done. So, Francis, you've come on the

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Speaker 1: program before with us and said, there's three puts to

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Speaker 1: this market, the Federal reserve, trite talks, and Chinese stimulus.

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Speaker 1: Any of those three right now that you have some

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Speaker 1: confidence that you think could push back your base case

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Speaker 1: of recession. So the FED move came earlier than I

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Speaker 1: was expecting. We didn't see, you know, rate hike in

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, starning about early March based on the paradigm

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Speaker 1: shift within the FED towards average inflation. My concern right

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Speaker 1: now is that there might be a little bit too

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Speaker 1: much optimism in that China put story, that it's probably

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Speaker 1: mostly in the price I hear a lot of analysts

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Speaker 1: tell me that we're going to see a U shaped

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Speaker 1: or V shaped recovery in China. To me, it looks

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Speaker 1: a little bit more like a stabilization by the end

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Speaker 1: of this year. If we don't get that V shaped recovery,

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Speaker 1: there could be some disappointment. Are they pushing their disinflation

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Speaker 1: and goods deflation out to the rest of the world.

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Speaker 1: They have, They have done it for years. They will

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Speaker 1: probably continue to do it. I think this is an

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Speaker 1: interesting sideline story that should gain more attention into China

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Speaker 1: is about to enter deflation by PPI measures. We feel

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Speaker 1: that in the United States, we feel that globally this

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Speaker 1: is a massive deflationary shock. I'm sure it's part of

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Speaker 1: the reason why the Fed said, you know what, we're

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Speaker 1: not going to get to two percent average inflation in

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Speaker 1: or and through the weekend we get the p m

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Speaker 1: I s for China and into next week to so

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Speaker 1: some really interesting data points coming from the Chinese side

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Speaker 1: of things. A fan of p m I s, but

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Speaker 1: I must admit they're important right now. I'm not a

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Speaker 1: fan of them either, except for the fact that out

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Speaker 1: of China we have so little real time activity trackers

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Speaker 1: that it's probably one of our best bet I would

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Speaker 1: actually watch that employment sub index within it as a

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Speaker 1: good sense of what's happening to the jobs growth there.

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Speaker 1: Francis Donald, thanks update as well. Let's go right over

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Speaker 1: the foreign exchange Jane following with us right now Jane Folly,

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Speaker 1: let me set it up. D X Y blended Dollar index, stronger,

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Speaker 1: yen not doing much, Euro maybe going through one twelve,

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden emerging markets perking up weaker

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Speaker 1: as well. That's set What are you focused on? Well,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, most of what you just said pointed

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Speaker 1: to me that the dollar can remain really quite firm

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Speaker 1: because in an environment where you see emerging markets looking

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Speaker 1: more belie, that's is suggestive of a lack of confidence

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Speaker 1: in the market. We've see that of course in stocks too.

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Speaker 1: Then in verse just's have to make a decision about

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Speaker 1: where else are they're going to go. They're worried about

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Speaker 1: risk capetite, they're pulling back on their risk. They generally

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Speaker 1: come back into safe assets, to come back into detail currencies,

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Speaker 1: and generally because they say favors are the yen and

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Speaker 1: a thesis fact. But when you've got negative yields and

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Speaker 1: those the dollar too, many people may look like a

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Speaker 1: better safe haven. That's certainly what happened I think last

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Speaker 1: year when we saw itself off in an emerging market,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's again what we're seeing right now. So, Jane,

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Speaker 1: is the breaks that continues to wind its way through

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Speaker 1: a parliament. It seems like we're maybe getting a little

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Speaker 1: bit closer. I hastened to say that, what is your

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Speaker 1: call on sterling, given you know, we have a little

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Speaker 1: seems like there might be a real path here, or

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Speaker 1: split in the path where there's hard breaks that are

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Speaker 1: still on the table, but they seem to be making

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Speaker 1: some progress. How do you think the pound reacts here

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Speaker 1: either way? Well, you know, we we saw yesterday that

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Speaker 1: the pound, at least in the cable dip into the

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Speaker 1: lower levels of the week yesterday, and this is on

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Speaker 1: disappointment that the MPs had their their votes last night

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Speaker 1: on eight amendments and there wasn't a majority for single one,

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Speaker 1: and that seems to disappoint the market invested. I think

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Speaker 1: we're hoping for some solid direction for an alternative to

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Speaker 1: treason maze plan, which of course me no MPs don't like,

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Speaker 1: so the markets disappointed. But actually I'm not as disappointed

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Speaker 1: as perhaps the value of sterling would would suggest, because

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Speaker 1: I think some progress was made. I think what we

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Speaker 1: see perhaps as uh, the the the plan about a

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Speaker 1: potential customs union, and this of course is a trade

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Speaker 1: arrangement with with Europe. Seemed to get more support than

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Speaker 1: than the others, and this might again see some progress

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Speaker 1: over the weekend as MP's get together and they talk

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Speaker 1: about common ground and I think by by Monday we

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Speaker 1: might have a clearer view about the potential alternatives for

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Speaker 1: a Brexit deal. But of course people must remember that legally,

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Speaker 1: as it's positioned, the UK is going to leave um

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Speaker 1: um in a couple of weeks time the EU and

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Speaker 1: we need a change in law in order to avoid that.

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Speaker 1: So that as you've just slightly pointed out, that threat

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Speaker 1: of the no deal Brexit is still hanging over the

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Speaker 1: heads of earning investors and we're limited any recovery. Where's

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Speaker 1: the EM opportunity right now? And Jane Folly well, I

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Speaker 1: think that's a that's a difficult question given the environment

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Speaker 1: that we're in. I mean, certainly I would be very

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Speaker 1: cautious about e M. The market has been nervous about

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Speaker 1: global growth. We see Hourkeey playing at in the back

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Speaker 1: that we've got elections there in a couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: and market extremely nervous. And when you've got a big

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Speaker 1: EM player like that Turkey really looking at and you've

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Speaker 1: got that on top of global growth, I think it's

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Speaker 1: a very nervous viral, you know, away from the idiosyncratic.

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Speaker 1: So I got I got a four print and Brazilian

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Speaker 1: real and I got argentinean Paso out pushing forty four.

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Speaker 1: Come on, there's there's sort of a group tendency here,

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Speaker 1: isn't there Well, there is, there is, and and to

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Speaker 1: be honest, I think you know, the wise investors always

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Speaker 1: going to look through the bigger picture and pick out

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Speaker 1: the countries that are doing better. Where you see the economy,

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Speaker 1: We'll pick out for us where is it well, you know, again,

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Speaker 1: a lot large part of this comes down to what

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Speaker 1: happens with China and US and the trade negotiations. Some

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Speaker 1: countries could benefit from agriculture down there, um, and again

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Speaker 1: it depends which way it's going to swing. It if

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Speaker 1: China again is picking up buying sybean from the US,

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Speaker 1: and maybe there isn't going to be the benefits for

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Speaker 1: other Latin American countries with which there could be. So

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Speaker 1: there's there's there's a lot of risky, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of um potential outcomes and a lot of these are

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Speaker 1: a really good picture events. Amazing Jane Folly, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much. Wonderful update with robble Bank just always advantage

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Speaker 1: when she's um, do you want to bring in our

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Speaker 1: esteem guests? Absolutely? Um. You know. Obviously we are are

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Speaker 1: here at the Bloomberg Equality Summer broadcasting live from the

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Speaker 1: link at our world headquarters here in Lectionton Avenue fifty

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Speaker 1: ninth Street, and we think about Hollywood. It's been said

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Speaker 1: that Hollywood is one of the least welcoming industries for women.

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Speaker 1: And I love this point that I think our guests made.

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Speaker 1: Even the coal industry does a better job deally being

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Speaker 1: accepting and support above women than this Hollywood. So it

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Speaker 1: help us kind of dig through this issue. We welcome

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Speaker 1: our our guess, Maria Geis. She is a writer and director.

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Speaker 1: Maria's thanks so much for joining us here at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: How did it ever get so bad for women in Hollywood?

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Speaker 1: What's the history there? Well, let's see. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: what Hollywood does today. I mean, Hollywood pays out seven

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Speaker 1: billion dollars in wages every year. It creates eight percent

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Speaker 1: of the media content that's distributed globally, and it helps

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Speaker 1: form our cultural narrative through the stories that are told there.

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Speaker 1: This is an incredibly powerful industry. And it's run by

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Speaker 1: a very small group of mostly white liberal men. UM

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Speaker 1: the history of of Hollywood, as told so beautifully in

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Speaker 1: the film by Tom Donahue called This Changes Everything Screen

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Speaker 1: Here Last Night. UM shows that in the pioneer days

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Speaker 1: of of Hollywood, which began in with the invention of

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Speaker 1: the movie camera, the cinematograph um invited women in and

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Speaker 1: there were lots and lots of women directors, writers, and

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Speaker 1: producers up until the big money came in. And as

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Speaker 1: soon as the big Wall Street money came in, women

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Speaker 1: got pushed out. So we really saw almost no women

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Speaker 1: in the industry as storytellers from about nineteen thirty until

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Speaker 1: nineteen seventy nine, after the civil rights movement of the

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixties and the Women's lib movement of the nineteen seventies,

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Speaker 1: and then we began to see some shift. So really

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Speaker 1: one can look at this as an economic issue, a

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Speaker 1: battle for resources. It's a patriarchy. Have has the so

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Speaker 1: to what extent has the meat too? This is just

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Speaker 1: recent history. To what extent has the meat too? Movement?

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Speaker 1: Do you think going going to impact Hollywood going forward?

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Speaker 1: Because it seems to be of the me too movement?

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Speaker 1: UM came in based on the work of the A

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Speaker 1: C l U and the e O C. SO. On

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Speaker 1: October sixteen, the e e O C the Equal Rights

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Speaker 1: um Commission of the United States Department of Justice started

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Speaker 1: an investigation for women directors in Hollywood, and UH two

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Speaker 1: years later, almost the day, on October five seen The

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Speaker 1: New York Times finally had the Kahan s to publish

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Speaker 1: the exposs on Harvey Weinstein. Incidentally that they had been

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Speaker 1: holding onto since two thousand and four for thirteen years.

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Speaker 1: So when Hillary Clinton was in the Clintons were no

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Speaker 1: longer in power, and Trump was now in power. UH,

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Speaker 1: the major media was emboldened to publish these stories. It

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Speaker 1: was a watershed moment, there's no question about it. But

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Speaker 1: I believe, you know, also a diversion because Hollywood has

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Speaker 1: been able to use me Too and the stories of

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Speaker 1: sexual harassment and abuse in the workplace and actresses to

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Speaker 1: um control the narrative. And that's what they're doing because

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Speaker 1: when you talk about equal employment Opportunity law and the

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Speaker 1: enforcement of Title Federal Enforcement Title seven in Hollywood, you're

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Speaker 1: talking about fundamentally a redistribution of jobs from men to women.

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Speaker 1: And that is something that Hollywood doesn't want you very

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Speaker 1: quickly here just because of time. You came out of U.

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Speaker 1: C l A. There's other combines of screenwriting and directing

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Speaker 1: around the world. Out of Tish came out and Bowden

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Speaker 1: and Ryan Fleck and they're doing Captain Marvel in that.

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Speaker 1: Do women have to advance and succeed going from small

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Speaker 1: movies and working up the food time over like you did, Frankly,

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Speaker 1: or can they jump in now at a higher level? Uh?

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Speaker 1: Basically the way it stands right now, women directed in

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Speaker 1: Women were directing cent of episodic TV shows, four percent

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Speaker 1: of studio features and through Amazon and Netflix. Know that fundamentally,

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Speaker 1: what is happening here is that women can work if

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Speaker 1: they work for free. Women are doing the lower end

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Speaker 1: of It's it's the exception Lawrence said four years ago.

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Speaker 1: She's sick of being adorable. I mean that's simple. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that women need to demand their rights under our laws.

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Speaker 1: You see that changing over the grill at the Beverly

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Speaker 1: Hills Hilton or at the Sunset Toro Hotel. Is that

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Speaker 1: dynamic changing? Um? I think that there is a great

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Speaker 1: deal of pressure right now on the industry. I think

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Speaker 1: the federal investigation and the work of the a C

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Speaker 1: L you rock to the industry to its core, and

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Speaker 1: they're worried about lawsuits and so um they're going to

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Speaker 1: move those numbers up through inside efforts, but those will

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Speaker 1: have not historically proven to be enduring. Is Disney Fox

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Speaker 1: good for women? Is James Wurduck and the rest of

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Speaker 1: them out there with Mr Igorant Disney Fox in the

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Speaker 1: new combination? Nobody is good for women. Nobody is good

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Speaker 1: for women. All all of these, the organizations that make

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Speaker 1: up Hollywood, including the unions, the talented agencies at studios,

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Speaker 1: and the network streaming giants, they all need to be

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Speaker 1: challenged by the BYE by a legal action. Is that coming?

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Speaker 1: Is that forthcoming? Do you think legal action? I My

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Speaker 1: belief is because the a E O C has been

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Speaker 1: um conducting this investigation and perhaps has been in settlement

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Speaker 1: talks for three years and four months six months almost

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Speaker 1: and we UM don't know what is going on with

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Speaker 1: that because uh, they function in total confidentiality. However, we

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Speaker 1: have been a small group of us have been working

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Speaker 1: very very hard to move this into the court system,

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Speaker 1: and I do believe that that is the necessary thing.

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Speaker 1: This needs to end up in the Supreme Court. Right,

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Speaker 1: it sounds like it sounds like pressure is building. It

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Speaker 1: sounds like the me too movement might might accelerate. That

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Speaker 1: so very interesting, guys, thank you so much for joining us,

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Speaker 1: like Maria as a writer and directors who joins us

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Speaker 1: here talking about this equality issue in Hollywood, which again

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Speaker 1: very very difficult place historically for women to do well,

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Speaker 1: even harder than the coal industry. Believe it or not,

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Speaker 1: but hopefully change is coming to Holly would thanks for

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Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to

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00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer.

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Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You

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Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio