1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,960 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here, 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of 3 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election. 4 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,039 Speaker 1: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade 5 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent 6 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, 7 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 1: it just means the absolute world to have your support. 8 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Hello, everybody, 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: surprise live stream. We were just thinking this morning. We 10 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: were like, you know what, given the timeliness and everything, 11 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: we have to just go live. Yeah. I mean there's 12 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:34,279 Speaker 1: so much that is still undecided, results continuing to come in, 13 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:36,599 Speaker 1: so it didn't make sense to hold it. So thanks 14 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: we are. It's a fun time. We're here, got four 15 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 1: hours of sleep and it's okay. We love you guys 16 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: literally that much. So what does that mean? What's going 17 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: on right now? I mean that is the ultimate question. 18 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: But before we start, I just want to say again, 19 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:50,959 Speaker 1: thank you all so much to our premium subscribers, many 20 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: of whom are watching right now, who enabled our stream 21 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: last night. It cost a hell of a lot of 22 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: money in order to put that whole production on, to 23 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: have people on the ground in Pennsylvania and Emily here, 24 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: to have counterpoints two days a week this time, and 25 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 1: really just shows you like, look, we clearly we got 26 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 1: to gear up for twenty twenty four because it is 27 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: going to be an amazing one, an amazing election, an 28 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: amazing show for the next two years. We have a 29 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 1: special discount going on right now by special requests. People 30 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: wanted us to keep it, so we've got a ten 31 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 1: percent annual discount right now going on right now for 32 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: ten percent off. The link is in the chat and 33 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: in the description of this video. It really helps us 34 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: build for twenty twenty four and so much more. Again, 35 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: we cannot think everybody who helps us put this show 36 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 1: on enough to pay our crew as well, who were 37 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: in the control room, many of whom did not sleep 38 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 1: very much last night. So we're very thankful. Just at 39 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 1: the top before we even get into the election. Yes, indeed, 40 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:44,479 Speaker 1: you guys are amazing. People seem to love the stream. 41 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: It was a blast doing it, you know. It was 42 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: really fun to have Kyle and Marshall. I thought Ryan 43 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: and Emily did a wonderful job, you know, picking up 44 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: when we went home to get a few hours of sleep, 45 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: not that I can really sleep because I was still 46 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: thinking about all I was so buzzed. Yeah, I know, 47 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: I didn't even tet caffeine or anything. This is like, 48 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: this is so crazy. What's happening now? Is there new 49 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: like batch of votes from Maricopa County or whatever. So anyway, 50 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 1: the kind of plan for the show, it's obviously going 51 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: to be a little more free wheeling, but we are 52 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: going to go through what our top takeaways are here 53 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: at the top. We're going to take a look at 54 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: where things stand with the Senate, where they stand with 55 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: the House, which crazy enough, still in doubt which party 56 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: is going to have control of the House to not 57 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: see that one coming. We're going to take a look 58 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,239 Speaker 1: at the key governor's races, some of those still outstanding. 59 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: We're also going to dig into the ballot initiatives, and 60 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: then we want to take a look at, you know, 61 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: what does all of this mean for twenty twenty four, 62 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: because there are a lot of big takeaways for Biden, 63 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: there's a lot of big question marks about Trump, and 64 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 1: certainly a wonderful night for Ronda Santis could not have 65 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: played out better for him personally, So we'll tell you 66 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: what we think basically happens next. So just to start 67 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: at the top, here's basically the lay of the land. 68 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,959 Speaker 1: The Red Wave I'll steal from Ben Shapiro, and I 69 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: don't often quote Ben Shapiro. The Red Wave turned into 70 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: a red wedding. Game of Thrones referenced. I mean, listen, 71 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 1: Republicans still likely to hold the House, but as I said, 72 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: actually in doubt. As of this morning, in terms of 73 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: races that are called, they have only netted overall one seat. 74 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: That is way below where they expected to be at 75 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: this point. I mean, I never thought we'd be going 76 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: into this morning not sure of where the House is 77 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: ultimately going to lank. Absolutely correct. In terms of the Senate. 78 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 1: Big news overnight John Fetterman declared victorious in the state 79 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,839 Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania. That means Democrats are actually up a seat 80 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: because that was a Republican held seat. He outperformed Biden 81 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: in effectively every part of the state. There's a lot 82 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: to say about that, will save that for a moment. 83 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: What's still outstanding. You still have Nevada, where you have 84 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: a lot of Clark County mail in ballots. Nobody knows 85 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 1: how much still outstanding right now, the Republican has an edge. 86 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: Will he ultimately hang out on their big question mark? 87 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 1: In Arizona, It looks like Mark Kelly is going to 88 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: hold on there. He's got a pretty sizable margin based 89 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: on what we know about where the votes are still out. 90 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: Looks like he's going to be able to pull it off. 91 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 1: Georgia Warnock has now pulled into a lead, but is 92 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: below that fifty percent threshold to avoid a runoff. Now 93 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: there is some vote still on standing. There is a 94 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: still theoretical possibility he could get beyond that fifty percent vote. 95 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: But if that one, let's just say that one haads 96 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: to a runoff, then you're looking at Nevada and Arizona. 97 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 1: Republicans have to hang on in Nevada, which they might 98 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: in order to gain control of the Senate. So you 99 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: have some really you know, wild situations here and much 100 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: much better night than Democrats expected. You know, a lot 101 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: to say about how this was a sort of repudiation 102 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 1: of the Trump direction of the Republican Party, a lot 103 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 1: to say about how this was really a result of 104 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 1: Roe versus Wade being overturned. Incredible Democratic enthusiasm, very unusual 105 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: for winter election. And the last thing, I'll say, Sager, 106 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: and then I'll get your sort of like big picture 107 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: takeaways and i'll give mine. You did have regional variation, 108 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: fair from how these results unfolded, which made this election 109 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 1: so weird because the first results we got in were 110 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: Florida and it was like, oh my god, this looks 111 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 1: like the red wave blood bath. Then we start getting 112 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: in New Hampshire and we're like, wait a second, Maggie 113 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: Hassen is dramatically outperforming Joe Biden in New Hampshire, dramatically 114 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: outperforming the polls. Then you had New York also was 115 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: kind of strong for republic It's not as good as 116 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: they thought they were going to do there, but they 117 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: actually picked off a few Democratic seats there. So a 118 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: lot of regional variation, a lot of candidate variation, a 119 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,799 Speaker 1: lot going on that made this a very complex election night. Absolutely, 120 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 1: So a couple of top line things. Number One, Obviously, 121 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 1: the red wave did not materialize in any way, and 122 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 1: to be clear, House and Senate still very much could 123 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 1: go Republican, giving the outstanding results right now in Arizona 124 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 1: and in Nevada. But I think regardless of that, given 125 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: how the toss ups in the House, which we will 126 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: get to in a little bit, did not go in 127 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: the Republican direction. Given really the fact that the Democratic 128 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,040 Speaker 1: base showed up big time. This is one of the 129 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: most extraordinary midterm elections absolutely of my lifetime and in 130 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: modern history. Joe Biden has just shored up his position 131 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: at the Democratic base. This changes politics on a macro 132 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,919 Speaker 1: level in a way that I did not nobody anticipated. 133 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: I can say that, and I will say also that 134 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: given the national environment that we are in right now, 135 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: the Republican quote soul searching and civil war, which I 136 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: did not think would materialize, I still think it absolutely 137 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: will now at this point and will go into frankly 138 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: into overdrive in the next two weeks, especially if Trump 139 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: also does announce his election. But I have to also 140 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: say this on abortion, which is that I tweeted this 141 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: morning just to be a little bit to shift some people. 142 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: I see many Republican commentators, Crystal, who are so willing 143 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: to Trump and candidate quality and all that. What about abortion. 144 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: I mean, clearly, oh, they don't want to talk about 145 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:58,839 Speaker 1: it at all. It is one of the It is 146 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: clear as day to me that abortion was one of 147 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: the biggest deciding factors for the Democratic base for many election, 148 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: for many people who showed up to Votex number two, 149 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: the emerging GOP coalition that people were so excited about 150 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: did not materialize in nearly the same way. Yes, turnout 151 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: was very high. We were talking this morning, Mayra Flora 152 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: is lost down in South Texas. She also was saying 153 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: talking about the red wave did not materialize. Beto ended 154 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: up winning many of those South Texas districts. So I mean, 155 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: is he lost overall, But we've been covering how much 156 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: the Rio Grand Valley has shifted exactly. They shifted back 157 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: significantly last night. And Henry Quaar, who also represented the 158 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: Round one, I think pretty easily. Like you said, Mayra 159 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: Flores ends up losing, that ends up being a DEM 160 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: pickup in that region. And then Ito, even Beto at 161 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: the top of the ticket as governor wins back outperforms 162 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: in Rio Grand Valley. So you know, clearly the takeaway 163 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: is that GOP and disarray for once the row row 164 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 1: row your vote strategy actually did work for the Democratic Party. 165 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 1: But let's not take away an extraordinary event. Florida is 166 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: not at red state and not just like kind of 167 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: red like red red. Ron DeSantis won by twenty points. 168 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: Marco Rubio similarly won by seventeen points. Extraordinary showing for 169 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: Republicans in Florida solidly in the GOP column now and 170 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: we have a totally shifting map. I also and I 171 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: think this is going to be the ultimate war for 172 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: the quote unquote narrative. Was it candidate quality, was it abortion? 173 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: And was it Trump? So unfortunately we can't say it's 174 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: just one thing. I think it's multifaceted in many ways. 175 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: Extraordinary that Pennsylvania gets called almost immediately. I sent an 176 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 1: analysis this morning, Crystal, which shows that John Fetterman is 177 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: on track to win Pennsylvania by a larger percentage point 178 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,599 Speaker 1: than Joe Biden in twenty twenty Trump or to me 179 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen. Why is that extraordinary? One of the 180 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: data points that you and I were pointing to last 181 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: night was that early exit polls, of which we were 182 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: both extraordinarily dubious, showed that abortion was at the very 183 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: top of the ticket, top of mind, even more so 184 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: than inflation in the state of Pennsylvania. Yeah. I'm also 185 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 1: finding a lot of interest in the fact that the 186 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 1: Wisconsin governor's race goes Republican. Michigan, by the way, for 187 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: the first time in twenty years, is set to have 188 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: democratic control of government all the way up and down 189 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: the legislature and for the governor. So it is clear. 190 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: Given also the ballot initiatives we'll talk about. With respect 191 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: to abortion, I don't think we can understate how much 192 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: of an impact that it had on the election last night. Yeah, 193 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 1: I mean the two big obvious things are number one 194 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: abortion yes, and number two Trump an election denial really 195 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: saddling the Republican party. I mean, when we talk about 196 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: the governor's races, there is so far one candidate who 197 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: might win a governor's mansion. That would be Carrie Lake, 198 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: who is an election denier. Every single one of the 199 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: other ones lost. This was an albatross around the neck, 200 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: not of the extremist Republican candidates, but it really was 201 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: a stench across the entire party. And you know, some 202 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: of the candidates that performed the most poorly, like doctor Oz, 203 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:15,079 Speaker 1: were Donald Trump picks. You know. Down in Georgia, Rafael 204 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: Warnock now with an edge now probably going to a 205 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: runoff where I would say he's favored to win. But 206 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: we'll wait and see what the national environment is there. 207 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: But you know, picked Trump picked a very weak candidate 208 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: in herschel Walker, who dramatically underperformed Brian Kemp and Brad 209 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: Rathensberger who were running statewide as well. But there are 210 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: some other factors here that I think are really interesting too, 211 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: especially when you look at the regional variation. So Lefunk 212 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,680 Speaker 1: tweeted this this morning, which I thought was an interesting point. 213 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: He said, you know, Biden, the Democrats really outperformed in 214 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 1: the Midwest last night. So if you think about Pennsylvania, 215 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 1: if you think about Michigan, even in Ohio, there were 216 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: some Obviously Tim Ryan didn't win, Jade Vance ends up winning, 217 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:59,199 Speaker 1: but there were some surprise flips in congressional districts in Ohio, 218 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: one of which no one even had on their radar 219 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,079 Speaker 1: they thought was a likely R and a Democrat ends 220 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: up winning it. You had strong Democratic performance in Wisconsin 221 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: as well, and Lefon points out Listen, Biden did way 222 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: more to bring back trade from China, invest in post 223 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: industrial states with new money for manufacturing, and shore up 224 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: local governance than Obama did in his first two years. 225 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: Might be part of the reason Dems fared relatively well 226 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:25,439 Speaker 1: in Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc. So I think the 227 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 1: big picture trends definitely Trump repudiation of Trump, repudiation of 228 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:35,319 Speaker 1: stop the Steal, conspiracy, election denying, nonsense, and extremism, and 229 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: also extremism on abortion and other issues as well. But 230 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: I really do think the election to dial thing was 231 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 1: a bridge too far for a lot of voters. But 232 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 1: I do think you also have to point to some 233 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 1: of the policy that Joe Biden enacted in office, in 234 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 1: particular in that sparking Democratic enthusiasm. Young people are a 235 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 1: big part of the story of what happened last night. 236 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: You know, they showed up for Democrats. There was a 237 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 1: huge generational divide in terms of who people were voting for, 238 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: young voters overwhelmingly for Democrats. To look at that and 239 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 1: say weed student loan debt cancelation, that was probably really 240 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: helpful there. That was a group where Biden was dramatically 241 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,719 Speaker 1: underwater until he took some of those actions. You look 242 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: at the Midwest, you know, you see the trade policy, 243 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,199 Speaker 1: you see the Chips Act, you see you know, continued 244 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: smart trade initiatives with regard to China, and you say, 245 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: maybe that was part of the story there in the 246 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: Midwest as well. So you know, the top layer is Trump, 247 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: the top layer is abortion. But I do think underneath 248 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: the surface, some of the regional variation has to do 249 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: with some of the actual policy things that Biden enacted 250 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,319 Speaker 1: in office, which is kind of heartening that, like real 251 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: things might actually matter. I'm not so sure. I still 252 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: think it's abortion. I think abortion was just so key 253 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: in Wisconsin and Michigan, especially Michigan where it was both 254 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: on the ballot and it was at that state level. 255 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 1: The gubernatorial Canada has so much impact, right, especially with 256 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 1: control of the GOP legislation. You might be right, Listen, 257 00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:00,199 Speaker 1: I hope you're right, but I'm not yet convinced. Well, 258 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: because before Biden started doing some stuff, his approval rating 259 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 1: with the Democratic base was really kind of it was low, 260 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 1: and they came out to vote. The big reason why 261 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: this is different from other midterims. Republicans were energized, they 262 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 1: showed up, but Democrats were, if anything, even more energized. 263 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: And then I haven't seen the independent numbers yet, but 264 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 1: they must not have swung as hard to the right 265 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: as polsters were ultimately predicting. So all of those things. 266 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: You know, abortion is certainly the spark, but I also 267 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: think of Biden agenda that the Democratic base that was 268 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,599 Speaker 1: genuinely like excited about and you know, affirmatively like supportive 269 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 1: of Inflation Reduction Act, all of that coming. I think 270 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: that also helped to shore up Democratic enthusiasm here. You know, 271 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 1: the other thing that I was thinking about is we've 272 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: had so many election cycles where it just seemed like 273 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: the laws of political gravity no longer applied, basically since 274 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: Trump one office. That just turned every like conventional wisdom 275 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 1: narrative about how politics functions and how people vote. It 276 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 1: just turned it completely on its head. You're like, you 277 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:03,719 Speaker 1: can say, grab them by the whatever, and you can 278 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: still get elected and have all this fallout from all 279 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: kinds of elites. You could still get elected. This was 280 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: a first election where it felt like some of those 281 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: rules of political gravity applied once again, where it was like, 282 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: you know what these people. I might not be in 283 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: love with what the Democrats are doing, but these people 284 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: have gone way too far and I just can't go 285 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 1: there with you. And it also marked the return of 286 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: regional variation, which you know, especially in the Trump era, 287 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 1: every one of these elections has been a national election, 288 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: national election, national election. We both have been saying like 289 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: local politics is dead, it doesn't matter anymore. Last night 290 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: it did matter, you know, and that really marks a 291 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: dramatic shift from the Trump era as well. As I said, Republicans. Really, 292 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: you know, if you just looked at Florida New York, 293 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: you'd be like, ah, they had a pretty good night 294 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: in New York. I'm going to talk about this later, 295 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: which amuses me greatly. Looks like Sean Patrick mulleniy is 296 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: the head of the D tripleC. It looks like he 297 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: may well lose his seat, and there's a whole lot 298 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: to say about that as well. But you know, it's 299 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 1: your point about abortion in New York, there wasn't a 300 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: sense that abortion rights were really at risk because you 301 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: still have a democratic legislature. So exactly, even if you're 302 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: sending Republican members of Congress, even if you consider voting 303 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 1: for Lee's Elden, his governor, who ended up you know, 304 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: losing and losing pretty handily. But you know, even if 305 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: you put some Republicans in, people didn't feel like their 306 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 1: abortion rights were at risk. And I do think that's 307 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: part of the story of why New York was Republicans. 308 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: I know, let's also not forget this Ron DeSantis. He 309 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: may be many things, but on abortion, he was only 310 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: willing to go to six weeks. He never endorsed the 311 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: national ban, and I think this is also something that 312 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 1: really hurt some of the Senate candidates. So herschel Walker 313 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 1: his own personal dalliances aside. I mean, Warnock was hammering 314 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: him saying, if we have a GOP majority, they are 315 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: going to pass you know, some national abortion band. Obviously, 316 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: Blake Masters didn't do himself any favor having that literally 317 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: on his website at the time. Yeah, and look, let's 318 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: talk about this. Masters at right now is getting clobbered, Like, look, 319 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: there's only sixty eight percent of the vote that is in, 320 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: but he's running far behind Kerry Lake, who is nearly 321 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 1: neck and neck with Katie Hobbs in the same thing. Clearly, 322 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: there was a lot of split ticket voting and people 323 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 1: did not like Blake Masters. That is a very interesting 324 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: note of which we can really only assume abortion had 325 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: to be one of the major deciding ones. Combine that 326 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: with ballot initiatives in two quasi or at least one 327 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: red state and one purplish state, and we can say 328 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 1: definitively that this was a massive, massive drag on the party. 329 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: So I think that I think those are the main 330 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: My main takeaway on this also from a metal level, 331 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 1: like on the polling and everything, is we truly don't 332 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 1: know anything, and that's very humbling and I love it. 333 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 1: I love being surprised by Americans. I was exactly like you, frankly, 334 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: I've just been cynical for the last six years with Trump. 335 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: Like you said, I'm like, listen, man, people, you know, look, 336 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: you can do anything and you can't get elected. You 337 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: know many of these stop the steel deniers and even 338 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: on abortion, you know, people who were willing to go 339 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: crazy out there. I was like, I just don't think 340 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: it's going to matter in the context of inflation, but 341 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: people surprise the hell out of us, and that was 342 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 1: my main thing. Was obviously completely I was wrong on 343 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 1: the red Wave. I truly assumed that inflation and all 344 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: that would trump much more inflation, Sorry, that inflation and 345 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 1: all that would trump any concern on social or even 346 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: stop the steal. Well I would, I frankly, I'd be 347 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,880 Speaker 1: willing to empathize and understand with that position. But clearly 348 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 1: it was not enough, and that is a really fascinating 349 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: takeaway that I have not truly yet grappled with. Yeah, 350 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,640 Speaker 1: from our election. I mean, there's a few things I'm 351 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 1: thinking about here. First of all, Arizona is an interesting 352 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: example because Carrie Lake's position on abortion is indistinguishable from 353 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 1: Blake Masters, but she's just saying a much better candidate. 354 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: And on the other side, the Democratic candidate Katie Hobbes 355 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 1: very weak candidate, Mark Kelly very strong candidate. So I 356 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: think you just have, like you know, on one hand, 357 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:55,360 Speaker 1: the candidate quality is Democrat is very strong and Republican 358 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: is very weak, and it's exact opposite. At the gubernatorial level, 359 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: we still don't know the outcome of those races. It 360 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 1: looks like Mark Kelly is gonna hold on. If I 361 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: had to guess, I'd say probably carry Lake ends up winning. 362 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: But that one is going to be really close and 363 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: is not anywhere close to being called, and it is 364 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 1: probably going to take days because that's just how they 365 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: ultimately do things. But it is absolutely fascinating to watch 366 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 1: all of this unfold. The pollsters got it wrong, but 367 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:27,360 Speaker 1: for the first time and several gold it was dem 368 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 1: over performance, especially in the states of New Hampshire. Huge 369 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 1: miss there, huge miss. All of the polls leading up 370 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 1: to election day were like maybe Maggie Hassen by one, 371 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: maybe Don Buldock by one, maybe by two, and then 372 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: she blew out. I mean, she outperformed buying in the state. 373 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: It's not even close. Pennsylvania is the other one, huge 374 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 1: pulling miss in the state of Pennsylvania. Now, some of 375 00:18:55,400 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 1: these other states, the mainstream polsters actually came pretty close, 376 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: like Georgia looks like they came pretty close, looks like Arizona, 377 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: looks like Nevada, they came pretty close. And then this 378 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: time it was the partisan right polsters who were wildly 379 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:12,959 Speaker 1: off in some of these states. I mean, you had 380 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 1: Trevalger with Washington State Senate race Patty Murray as a 381 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,199 Speaker 1: toss up, it looks like she's gonna win by fourteen points. Yeah, So, 382 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: I mean, this is just and they had a few 383 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: like that where they were predicting toss ups in places 384 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 1: where Democrats are now going to win by twelve, thirteen, 385 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 1: fourteen points. So you know, for them, they have a 386 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: lot of egg on their face this morning. In the 387 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 1: same way that the mainstream polsters did in twenty twenty. 388 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I mean that it's fascinating, right, because the 389 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: Polsters got it completely wrong twenty sixteen ish. On twenty eighteen, 390 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 1: if anything, there was some gop overperformance twenty twenty obviously 391 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: dead wrong. Yeah, once again. So that obviously that was 392 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 1: my baked in assumption. So I was listening to some 393 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: of the takeaways. Nate Silver did like a snap reaction 394 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 1: last night at like two thirty or whatever in the morning, 395 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: and he was like, look, here's the truth, which is 396 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 1: that we have recency bias. And a four as an example, 397 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: size of four elections actually not that big, so to 398 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: have one be different than the other three if you've 399 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: taken the context of the hundreds of elections that we 400 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 1: have had in American history, that's actually not a very 401 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: good data set. It's an important thing that we all 402 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: need to remember. You know, we had recency bias. I 403 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: don't think unfairly from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty. I 404 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,120 Speaker 1: think what we've looked at was we're like, we don't 405 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: really trust the polls. Yes, that was probably well founded. Yeah, 406 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: and so it's like, all right, well, if you can't 407 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: rely on the polls, what are you going to rely on? 408 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 1: And then you go, okay, well, the other thing you 409 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: can look to that's not just like my gut feeling 410 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 1: or my vibes is the fundamentals. The fundamentals were terrible 411 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: for Democrats, right the you know, Biden's approval rating history 412 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: of if you're the party in power, the economic numbers, inflation, 413 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 1: what people are telling people their number one issue ultimately is. 414 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,120 Speaker 1: And so when you look at that, you go, I mean, 415 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 1: can all of that be overridden by candidate quality issues 416 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 1: and abortion? Apparently the answer is yes. And I do think, 417 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,880 Speaker 1: you know, for the Republicans, if they had run candidates 418 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,719 Speaker 1: who like were basically playing vanilla Glenn Youngkin types across 419 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: the country, they would be in a very different situation 420 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 1: than they are in right now. You know, on the 421 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:22,400 Speaker 1: inflation piece, I've floated this last night and it continues 422 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: to be my best guess over why the economic numbers 423 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 1: were not the weight around the Democrats that you would 424 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 1: think that they would be. And I think it's because 425 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: voters are kind of realistic about how much how much 426 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 1: to blame you know that the president ultimately is for 427 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 1: what's going on in the economy. They look at this, 428 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: they're like corporate profiteering, supply chain issues. We just had COVID, 429 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,200 Speaker 1: Like the whole world was turned upside down. So there's 430 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 1: a little bit less blamed directly of Biden's policies, and 431 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 1: we saw that in some of the Exit Pole results. 432 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 1: And then on the other hand, I think there was also, 433 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,120 Speaker 1: you know, a myths from Republicans who thought they could 434 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 1: just say inflation, inflation, inflation, without being specific about here's 435 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: what we would do that would help you directly, and 436 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: so they ended up not benefiting from that to the 437 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: extent that they thought that they would. Ultimately it me 438 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: reiterate a point Ryan Grimm made last night, of which 439 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 1: I am now forced to grapple with. I would have 440 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: told you was insane forty eight hours ago, was that, hey, 441 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: we live in a crazy economy. Yeah, inflation is high, 442 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 1: savings is really bad, all of that, but we have 443 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 1: very low unemployment. So to have that low unemployment, it's 444 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: a confounding variable. The Biden administration has been talking that way. 445 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,199 Speaker 1: You know, I've frankly dismissed as cope given the savings 446 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: rate going down, people the way that people feel about it. 447 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 1: But maybe it just doesn't hit the same to have 448 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: high inflation and to have unemployment at four when let's say, 449 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: if let's say unemployment was at ten, I think it 450 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 1: would have been right, it would have been different. It 451 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: would have been the actually red wave could have materialized. 452 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:48,400 Speaker 1: So maybe that's something I And gas prices still high, yeah, 453 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 1: three eighty right now, a lot lower than they were 454 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 1: before this, right about seventy cents less than the overall peak. 455 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 1: You know, during all of this, man, there's so many 456 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,159 Speaker 1: meta takeaways. You know, I'm also thinking about if the 457 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: Democrats do hold the Senate. From a foreign policy perspective, 458 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: you know, we shouldn't forget the war in Ukraine like 459 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 1: this basically just green let the blank check to selet 460 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: Ski now for a long time. That's kind of interesting. Yeah, 461 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 1: there's also on the House side. If the Dems do 462 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: capture the House, which is sy keep the House possible 463 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 1: unlikely at this point, let's say what twenty five percent 464 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 1: chance maybe something like that. Then look, I mean, what 465 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 1: are they going to do? It's another good question. I now, 466 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: by the way, nobody in Washington even knows the answer 467 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 1: to that question. Right now, it is still possible Republicans 468 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: end up with control of the Senate by one seat. 469 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 1: Is also possible that, if not kind of likely, you know, 470 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,479 Speaker 1: a little bit more likely than the Republicans ending up 471 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,119 Speaker 1: with a one seat margin. It's very possible Democrats end 472 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 1: up with a one seat margin. Well, the New York 473 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: Times has it. Majority of their needle right now says 474 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,640 Speaker 1: lean lean down in the Senate, right, and so I mean, 475 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 1: of course, you know, Democrats have the vice presidency, so 476 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 1: they can have a fifty to fifty and have Kamala 477 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: Harris as the tie breaking vote, so they have an 478 00:23:55,640 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: advantage there. Also, this could very well becomeing down to 479 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 1: another Georgia runoff, could very well be coming down to that, 480 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 1: which I will say, I've predicted one of redctions. Predict 481 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 1: that so at least I will be able to take 482 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 1: some comfort and feeling like I was right at some 483 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:16,239 Speaker 1: point during this process. The key is just to make 484 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: a lot of different predictions and then you can just 485 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 1: be like that one everything at the wall, I go, yeah, 486 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,239 Speaker 1: I think this, but here's all the caveats. Listen. I 487 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,360 Speaker 1: love being wrong about this because it's fun. I love 488 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: seeing the vote totals. I love seeing the way that 489 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: people vote people are not reductive, they are multi facected. 490 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 1: I think they are their own people. I love America. 491 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 1: And it really does put a lot of pause into 492 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:46,199 Speaker 1: the narrative of you know, realignment inevitability. Absolutely because we 493 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 1: had a sequence of elections where it was like, all right, 494 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: and Latinos move a little more, Latinos move a little 495 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,400 Speaker 1: more out Now we see black men moving a little 496 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 1: bit this way and that when in the other direction 497 00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: last night. So it also, you know what I mean, 498 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 1: Democrats used to have this very arrogant view of like, 499 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 1: demographics are destiny, the coalition of the ascendant. As the 500 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,439 Speaker 1: Latino population grows, we're just going to automatically benefit from that. 501 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: And I think Republicans start to engage in a little 502 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:16,440 Speaker 1: bit of that same type of thinking of just like inevitably, 503 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 1: these groups are going to continue moving our way and 504 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 1: you know, we don't really it's just going to happen. 505 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,640 Speaker 1: We don't really have to do anything like, you know, economically, 506 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 1: we don't really have to deliver for them. We're just 507 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 1: like going to fight the culture war and they're going 508 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: to fall into our hands. And you know, last night 509 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,640 Speaker 1: is a real warning sign for the Republicans on that 510 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 1: front as well. So the question of what Democrats would 511 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 1: do if they end up with the House and they 512 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,879 Speaker 1: end up with plus one in the Senate, that's going 513 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 1: to be really that would be a really interesting one 514 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: because then you can take Joe Manchin off the table, 515 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 1: or you can take Cares and Cinema off as Ruble, 516 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,680 Speaker 1: and you can, you know, potentially do another reconciliation thing. 517 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 1: But that's getting way ahead of where we are right now. 518 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 1: You want to jump into the Senate. Rest, let's jump 519 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 1: into the Senate and uh okay, let's go ahead and 520 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,679 Speaker 1: take a look at everything there. The shock result not 521 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,239 Speaker 1: even that close right now, ap and everybody calling it. 522 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 1: John Fetterman for Pennsylvania, he's currently a fifty point one percent, 523 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: forty seven percent for doctor Oz. Humiliating defeat, no question, 524 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 1: doesn't even come within the twenty twenty result, doesn't come 525 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 1: within the twenty sixteen stunning result against Hillary, for Pat 526 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,919 Speaker 1: Toomey and for Donald Trump. So clearly doctor Oz flopped 527 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,440 Speaker 1: right on his face. Why does that matter? The abortion 528 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 1: one is my major takeaway. Exit polls showing there abortion 529 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 1: was the number one issue over inflation by almost a 530 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: ten point margin. So we will get some more verified 531 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,399 Speaker 1: exits in the coming days, of which I'm really going 532 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 1: to take a lot of time to scrutinize. Fetterman's over 533 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 1: performance is one of the biggest and most important data 534 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 1: points for twenty twenty four. So let's hold that in 535 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: our discussion. So yeah, so let's pause there for a moment. 536 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,680 Speaker 1: First of all, I have to chuckle at the fact 537 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,639 Speaker 1: that after losing to Joe Biden and now losing to 538 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,880 Speaker 1: John Fetterman, Republicans have now lost concept of elections two 539 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: men who basically can't talk. I have a lot to 540 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: say on this that I will say for the twenty 541 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 1: twenty four segment, which was Joe Biden's looking pretty good 542 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 1: right now, Yeah, for twenty twenty four, he is. I 543 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 1: never thought I'd be at this desk saying that. But 544 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 1: speak of I mean, speak of humiliating. I mean, this 545 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 1: is in some ways like a real repudiation of a 546 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 1: lot of the Trump era politics because you have John Fetterman, 547 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 1: who we all watch the debate difficult pain, hard to 548 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 1: watch really performance after suffering a stroke and still very 549 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,640 Speaker 1: much being in the midst of recovering from that, up 550 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 1: against doctor Oz, who was a literal like Oprah made 551 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,719 Speaker 1: TV star. That's right, And I thought he was going 552 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 1: to be a star. I'm on record saying I really did. 553 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,680 Speaker 1: And yeah I did too, I really did. I mean, 554 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: it turns out Carrie Lake actually had more of the 555 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 1: qualities we expected doctor Oz to have. And we'll see 556 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 1: if she hangs on for governor there, which kind of defies, 557 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 1: you know, what happened in the rest of the country. 558 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,240 Speaker 1: Is she if she is able to hang on. But 559 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 1: if you look at New York Times has this map 560 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 1: of you know, what were the shifts in margin across 561 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,640 Speaker 1: the state, And most of the maps that I looked at, 562 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 1: even in places like New Hampshire where Democrats did really well, 563 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 1: there were a lot of blue arrows showing that okay, 564 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,399 Speaker 1: Democrats did outperformed in these areas, but there were also 565 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 1: red air arrows in the world areas where Republicans outperformed. 566 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is not like that. John Fetterman outperformed in basically 567 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 1: everywhere in the entire state, and so abortion yes number 568 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: one issue in the exit polls. There was a danger 569 00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 1: that Republicans end up with the governor's mansion and both legislatures. 570 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: I think voters felt that very acutely, like this was 571 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 1: really on the line. So I do think that that 572 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: is very important. But I also think, you know, Fetterman 573 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 1: does have that everyman appeal, and he had roots in 574 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 1: Steel Country, and so he not only hangs on given 575 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 1: the precarity of his health situation, he ends up being 576 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,800 Speaker 1: one of the best Democratic candidates in the entire country, 577 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 1: which is something that we expected early on before the 578 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 1: stroke happened, because he has such a great like workingman 579 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 1: every man appeal in touch with people. Really feels like 580 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 1: he gets the struggles of the working class and connects 581 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 1: in a way that feels authentic, and you know, and 582 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: at the same time was very effectively and I think 583 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 1: ultimately decisively painting Oz as this out of touch elitist, 584 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: Hollywood elitist, and that ends up mattering way more than 585 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 1: concerns over his health. And I would even go so 586 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 1: far as to say, and I was saying this at 587 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:35,320 Speaker 1: the time, like the OZ strategy around his health really 588 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 1: backfired because it just made Oz look like an asshole, 589 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,360 Speaker 1: and it made Fetterman a more sympathetic character actually actually 590 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 1: very possibly. Yeah, I mean, look, I also no offense 591 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 1: to Pennsylvania, but data shows is an old and not 592 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 1: particularly healthy state. So it's not like, you know, people 593 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 1: can't empathize major right, just there's so much to say 594 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 1: on Pennsylvania. Let's continue also in Georgia. So where do 595 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 1: things stand right now? So we have the ninety six 596 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 1: percent of the vote, which is currently we have one 597 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty three thousand remaining outstanding ballots. Raphael Warnock 598 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,520 Speaker 1: currently holds forty nine point two percent of the vote 599 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 1: with one million, nine hundred and forty one thousand votes. 600 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 1: Herschel Walker has got forty eight point seven percent of 601 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 1: the vote one million, nine hundred and twenty two thousand. 602 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 1: So we have a twenty thousand vote difference between the 603 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 1: two candidates, just to show you how tight it is. 604 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 1: And we have one hundred and fifty three thousand ballots 605 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 1: remaining to be counted. Now where exactly that count is 606 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: all coming from? I will not speculate as to how 607 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 1: much exactly is in. It clearly is going to come 608 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 1: to a game of inches. The exact analysis I've seen 609 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: so far, Crystal, tell me if you've seen anything else, 610 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 1: is that this is almost certain to go to a 611 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 1: runoff because there does not appear to be enough outstanding 612 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: ballots given the breakage, for Warnock to be able to 613 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: pull over fifty percent, Although that remains within the realm 614 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 1: of possibility, things would just have to break so far 615 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 1: in his direction that it seems unlikely at this point. Yeah, 616 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 1: that's what I've seen as well. I mean, there continues 617 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 1: to be a lot of uncertainty about exactly what's out, 618 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 1: is it election day, is it mailing? Where is it? 619 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 1: So it's hard to say for certain, But what looks 620 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: most likely to happen with Raphael Warnock right now sitting 621 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 1: at forty nine point four percent of the vote, and 622 00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 1: remember he has to get to fifty to avoid the runoff, 623 00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 1: what looks most likely to happen is Warnock gets the 624 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 1: most votes but does not avoid the runoff. So we 625 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 1: end up again in the situation with a Georgia runoff 626 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 1: again potentially determining control of the Senate. And you know, 627 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: I mentioned it before, but I'll say it again. Herschel 628 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,719 Speaker 1: Walker really dramatically underperforming the top of the ticket. You know, 629 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 1: this was a state that Republicans with a different candidate, 630 00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 1: with a different campaign, I think, you know, could have 631 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 1: cleaned this up and one decisively last night, and instead 632 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 1: you have to take the risk of going to a 633 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 1: runoff where all eyes are going to be on these 634 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: two candidates, and we know that herschel Walker does not 635 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 1: hold up particularly well under screen. I'll pick up on that. 636 00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 1: Brian camp decisively won the election last night, not even close. 637 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: Fifty three point four percent of the vote two point 638 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,000 Speaker 1: one million votes to Stacy Abrams one point eight million. 639 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 1: So she got completely clopvered, which is a story in 640 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,840 Speaker 1: its own right, something a little bit delicious that she 641 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: did see. By the way, thank you, Stacy, you actually 642 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 1: conceded the election this time. Props to you. I guess 643 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,920 Speaker 1: it was a little bit too incongruous if that weren't 644 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 1: the case. Let's keep going down on the Senate map. 645 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,280 Speaker 1: I just want to say North Carolina there were some 646 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 1: early questions there, but it didn't end up being all 647 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,960 Speaker 1: that close at all. Fifty percent of the vote to 648 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 1: Ted to bud and only forty seven percent of the 649 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 1: vote to Beasley, So three percent margin. That's not justly 650 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 1: closer than I it's closer than we expected, certainly. I 651 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 1: mean North Carolina's weird state, right, I mean Obama in 652 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, that kind of made the dream possible. 653 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 1: It was always a question about Biden. Trump ended up 654 00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 1: winning it decisively. Then you also had what was I 655 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 1: got Cayle Cunningham really go down in Flames in twenty twenty, 656 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,400 Speaker 1: but Bud he's in there. The Republicans did hold on 657 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 1: to that seat. Ron Johnson right now, things look pretty 658 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 1: good for Ron Johnson hasn't been officially getting called for him, 659 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,600 Speaker 1: but he's probably gonna win. But the margin is not 660 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:05,920 Speaker 1: nearly as close as the last time that he won 661 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 1: six years ago. Crystal. He's only got fifty point five percent, 662 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 1: Mandella Barnes at forty nine point three, So big overperformance 663 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 1: from Mandela Barnes there relative to the last time that 664 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 1: this happened twenty sixteen. Obviously was a huge upset when 665 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: Trump won Wisconsin. So there's something to be said there 666 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,480 Speaker 1: if you want to add anything. I just wanted to 667 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 1: say again, pay attention because the Midwest was consistent outperformance 668 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,840 Speaker 1: for ten Yes, yeah, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. I was just 669 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 1: looking at Ohio jd Vance wins. But I'm looking again 670 00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 1: at that New York Times map that shows the shift 671 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,480 Speaker 1: in the vote the entire state. Tim Ryan outperformed where 672 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 1: Biden was and so it was again a much narrow margin. 673 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 1: He improves on it, you know, claws back some of 674 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 1: those red gains that have been made in recent years. 675 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 1: And again that you know Midwest coming back into the 676 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,320 Speaker 1: Democratic fold. You know, Ohio is not back in the 677 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,920 Speaker 1: Democratic fold, but shifting back in that direction in Michigan 678 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 1: and Wisconsin very to finitatively. That also goes against the 679 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 1: kind of realignment inevitability narrative. Absolutely. Okay, so let's continue 680 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,760 Speaker 1: in the map. Ohio, as we already said, JD vance 681 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,719 Speaker 1: winning their pretty pretty decent margin fifty three forty six 682 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,879 Speaker 1: percent for Tim Ryan. Tim Ryan did certainly overperform Mike 683 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,240 Speaker 1: DeWine just blew it out in Ohio. He got sixty 684 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,759 Speaker 1: two percent the vote thirty seven percent, so a lot 685 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,560 Speaker 1: of ticket splitters there. But JD end up winning what 686 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:31,400 Speaker 1: approximately the same percent by around eight points there right now, 687 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 1: that's Trump wanted by New York Times says he'll win 688 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 1: ultimately by six point six Okay, so he definitely not 689 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,080 Speaker 1: a little bit there. He underperformed Trump. And yeah, again 690 00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:45,240 Speaker 1: you see Tim Ryan overperforming really across the state urban rural, suburban, 691 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,120 Speaker 1: you know, doing better than what Biden did in the 692 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 1: state of Ohio. Absolutely, Okay, so let's continue in the Senate. 693 00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 1: So Arizona. All eyes right now on Arizona. So they 694 00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,719 Speaker 1: do not have nearly the same amount of the vote 695 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,320 Speaker 1: in they have sixty eight percent. We have remaining ballots 696 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,799 Speaker 1: eight hundred and thirty two thousand remaining ballots. So that's 697 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,239 Speaker 1: a lot. Because I'm about to read you what the 698 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,439 Speaker 1: current ballots are. Mark Kelly has got fifty one point 699 00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 1: nine percent of the count and vote right now, nine 700 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,480 Speaker 1: hundred and eighteen thousand ballots. Blake Masters has forty five 701 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,160 Speaker 1: point nine percent eight hundred and eleven thousand, So we 702 00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:22,320 Speaker 1: still have eight hundred thousand votes to count, so many votes. 703 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,640 Speaker 1: There will'll be mail in, some of it will be early. 704 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,439 Speaker 1: Vote remains to be seen. I have not seen any 705 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,880 Speaker 1: compelling analysis right now which shows me that Blake Masters 706 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,960 Speaker 1: has a great chance at coming back and winning this. 707 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 1: But it's not totally out of the question right now, 708 00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,960 Speaker 1: it would it's leaning them heavily in Mark Kelly's favor. Yeah, 709 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:43,440 Speaker 1: I think we can see. Yeah, I mean, this one 710 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 1: looks pretty good for Mark Kelly, barring something like pretty surprising. Ultimately, 711 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,080 Speaker 1: unfolding because you still have a good chunk of the 712 00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,480 Speaker 1: vote in Maricopa County. Yet that is where you know, 713 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,920 Speaker 1: the expectation is that the bulk of the votes will 714 00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,840 Speaker 1: come from. And right now, Mark Kelly is winning Maricopa 715 00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,520 Speaker 1: County fifty three percent to forty five percent. So, uh, 716 00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 1: it looks pretty good. It looks pretty solid for the 717 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,560 Speaker 1: Democrats there, like they're gonna ultimately be able to win 718 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 1: Blake Master's weak candidate, Mark Kelly very strong candidate. And 719 00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,080 Speaker 1: you know, uh, Mark Kelly definitely outperforming Katie Hobbes at 720 00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:16,840 Speaker 1: the top year taken, We'll get to the governor's racism 721 00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,919 Speaker 1: a bit, that's right, Okay, So Nevada also major eyes 722 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,000 Speaker 1: on Nevada. So eighty percent of the vote that's in. 723 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 1: We got two hundred and eleven thousand votes remaining to 724 00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,120 Speaker 1: be counted, forty nine point nine percent for Adam Laxalt, 725 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,279 Speaker 1: forty seven point two percent for Catherine Cortez Masto. But 726 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,040 Speaker 1: and here's the huge butt Crystal, Let's go ahead and 727 00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,280 Speaker 1: tell everybody about Clark County, the remaining mail in ballots 728 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,600 Speaker 1: that remain to be come in, and those are heavily democratic. Okay. 729 00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:43,400 Speaker 1: So John Ralston, who is the guru you know, really 730 00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:48,279 Speaker 1: respected by Republicans and Democrats, has you know, remained quite nonpartisan. 731 00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 1: His math is at this point that if there are 732 00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,160 Speaker 1: i'cording from his Twitter feed, if there are one hundred 733 00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: thousand male ballots left in Clark County, which is where 734 00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,879 Speaker 1: bulk of the population is, that's where Las Vega, which 735 00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:04,359 Speaker 1: would make sense, he says, based on turnout there, and 736 00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 1: if the Dems win that by a two to one margin, 737 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,799 Speaker 1: which is what they've wanted by so far. So if 738 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:15,560 Speaker 1: trends continue, then Catherine Cortez Masto could come back to win. 739 00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,439 Speaker 1: So that is the Democratic incumbent. He then says, it's 740 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,239 Speaker 1: more uphill for sisilc that's a Democratic governor, but he's 741 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,279 Speaker 1: not quite dead yet. Also, we have sixteen thousand mail 742 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:27,719 Speaker 1: in votes from Washoe County, which is more Republican. So 743 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:32,120 Speaker 1: this one really hard to say what direction it's ultimately 744 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,160 Speaker 1: going to go in. Laxalt obviously has the lead right now. 745 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,480 Speaker 1: I'm sure he would love to stop the count but 746 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:41,320 Speaker 1: nobody knows exactly how many mail in ballots here. Nobody 747 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 1: knows if they're going to go for Democrats in the 748 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 1: same proportion that they were going for Democrats ultimately, so 749 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,840 Speaker 1: big nov is the state where they are kind of 750 00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,560 Speaker 1: the biggest question mark. It's going to take a while. 751 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:52,160 Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to know Nevada now for 752 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 1: a couple of days. Same thing in Ai. I read 753 00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:57,040 Speaker 1: this last night, which is disgraceful. Maricopa County says we'll 754 00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:59,240 Speaker 1: have ninety nine percent of the ballots counted by Friday. 755 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 1: You guys had two years to get your act together. 756 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,600 Speaker 1: Then the voting machines go down in Maricopa. Now you 757 00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,160 Speaker 1: need three days in order to count what's going on. 758 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,000 Speaker 1: It's like you couldn't cook up, you know, like a 759 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 1: stop the Steel dream. And I expect Carrie Lake, you know, 760 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 1: in her speech last night she was talking about Shenanigans 761 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,880 Speaker 1: and all that. Unfortunately, we will be grappling with that, 762 00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,440 Speaker 1: I think in the days to come. However, on the 763 00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,760 Speaker 1: Senate side, which is what we're sticking with right now, 764 00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,759 Speaker 1: let's spend some time on two races which in the 765 00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:32,120 Speaker 1: red tsunami would have gone in that direction. Maggie Hassen 766 00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,320 Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, as you said, bad night for Republican 767 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,640 Speaker 1: polsters who had her only winning or sorry, only up 768 00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,520 Speaker 1: by one point. Well, mainstream polsters had her up by one. 769 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,160 Speaker 1: Republican polsters had the other dude winning. That's right, they 770 00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:47,400 Speaker 1: had Bolduck. Well guess Scott. Guys, she's winning by ten 771 00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:50,000 Speaker 1: points with ninety percent of the vote, which is in 772 00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:53,160 Speaker 1: right now. Maggie Hassen fifty three point nine percent of 773 00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,840 Speaker 1: the vote. Don Boldock at forty four point two percent 774 00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,319 Speaker 1: of the vote with only fifty nine thousand votes that 775 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:03,600 Speaker 1: remain out there standing. She absolutely crushed him in New Hampshire. 776 00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:08,080 Speaker 1: Here's another one, Washington. In the red tsunami scenario, Washington 777 00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,320 Speaker 1: was very much in play. I heard rumors on election 778 00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,560 Speaker 1: morning that Patty Murray was actually pretty worried. Not even close. 779 00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,600 Speaker 1: So fifty six percent of the vote that's in because 780 00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:17,440 Speaker 1: there's a lot of mail in ballots that remain to 781 00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,399 Speaker 1: be counted, but she's already been called a winner by 782 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,439 Speaker 1: the AP. She's crushing Tiffany Smiley fifty six point nine 783 00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,839 Speaker 1: percent to forty two percent, like not even in the 784 00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:32,080 Speaker 1: realm of possibility, so that those are almost as significant 785 00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,120 Speaker 1: to me as the close election wins. Just to show 786 00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,920 Speaker 1: you how big the polling missus were in some of 787 00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,000 Speaker 1: these states, Washington, there was not a lot of polling. 788 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,480 Speaker 1: You know, it was closer than some people thought, but 789 00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:47,280 Speaker 1: just underscores to us that the Dems so majorly performed 790 00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:51,440 Speaker 1: outperformed their polls last night. Well, it does give credence 791 00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,600 Speaker 1: to something else that I was very dismissive of leading 792 00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,640 Speaker 1: up to election day, which is this notion of Republicans 793 00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:02,480 Speaker 1: flooding the zone, yes, with partisan, low quality polls that 794 00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,600 Speaker 1: show out performance for them and don't match up with reality, 795 00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,719 Speaker 1: real clear politics, which we use a lot, you know, 796 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:14,240 Speaker 1: to just show okay, neutral, no, like Nate silver fancy 797 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:18,040 Speaker 1: analytical model. What are the polls saying right now. They 798 00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:21,520 Speaker 1: had the Washington Senate race that you just said, Patty 799 00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:24,040 Speaker 1: Murray's like set to win by like fifteen points. They 800 00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:28,279 Speaker 1: had that as a toss up. They had the Colorado 801 00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:32,800 Speaker 1: Senate race where Democrats are winning by like thirteen points, 802 00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:37,719 Speaker 1: They had that as a toss up. The main governor's 803 00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:41,040 Speaker 1: race where Democrats are set to win by thirteen points, 804 00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:45,200 Speaker 1: they had that as a toss up. So, you know, 805 00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,600 Speaker 1: this idea that was being spread by a lot of 806 00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:52,239 Speaker 1: Democratic partisans that these Republican leaning polsters were skewing the 807 00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,680 Speaker 1: averages and making it so that the Senate races appeared 808 00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:57,680 Speaker 1: a lot different and put a lot more states into 809 00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:01,240 Speaker 1: play than were really in play, not to be accurate 810 00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,160 Speaker 1: in terms of this election and how things ultimately unfolded. 811 00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:08,560 Speaker 1: The mainstream polsters were a lot closer to reality in 812 00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,040 Speaker 1: this race, even as you know some of the main 813 00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,040 Speaker 1: like the mainstream polsters in some of these states, they 814 00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:18,800 Speaker 1: also underestimated the Democrats. This was something that Nate Silver 815 00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,680 Speaker 1: was sort of speculating about beforehand, effectively saying, if there 816 00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:26,000 Speaker 1: is this dynamic of they underestimate the Democrats, which are 817 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,640 Speaker 1: different from the past election cycles, it'll be because they've 818 00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:32,600 Speaker 1: kind of internalized like, Okay, these polls are overestimating the Democrats. 819 00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:34,080 Speaker 1: We got to account for that and some of our 820 00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 1: decision making, and maybe they go too far in the 821 00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:40,319 Speaker 1: other direction. I mean, that is one plausible explanation for 822 00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:44,040 Speaker 1: how they missed. In particular in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania 823 00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:45,759 Speaker 1: were like some of the bigger and I would say 824 00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:47,719 Speaker 1: the Midwest were some of the bigger messines. Something coming 825 00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:50,279 Speaker 1: clear to me too in the Senate picture was that 826 00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,640 Speaker 1: you know, guys, Senate confirms judges, so I think That's 827 00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,800 Speaker 1: also why abortion very likely had a major impact in 828 00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,680 Speaker 1: some of these Senate races. Behaved well. I think Senate 829 00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,120 Speaker 1: Supreme Court, right, I mean that was major would I 830 00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,360 Speaker 1: would say more than that, it's the fact that Republicans 831 00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,680 Speaker 1: were on their floating a national abortion faure Lindsay Graham 832 00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,920 Speaker 1: didn't have no favors my pen. I mean, there was 833 00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,760 Speaker 1: a whole slew of them Blake Masters in his primary. 834 00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:19,880 Speaker 1: I mean, a lot of mainstream Republicans with power and 835 00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,160 Speaker 1: with potential power out there like, yeah, if we get power, 836 00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,080 Speaker 1: this is what we're doing. And you know, there was 837 00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:28,040 Speaker 1: real good reason for voters to believe them ultimately, given 838 00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,360 Speaker 1: their track record of continue to move in that direction. 839 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,879 Speaker 1: So I do think as we get a couple days 840 00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,000 Speaker 1: out and do some of the like exit poll analysis 841 00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,080 Speaker 1: and whatever, I do think some of the regional variation 842 00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:43,440 Speaker 1: will depend on how much voters really felt like abortion 843 00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:46,319 Speaker 1: was at risk with their vote this election, which, again 844 00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,840 Speaker 1: I would say, in New York, because you have democratic 845 00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:50,759 Speaker 1: control of the House in this state, there was a 846 00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,680 Speaker 1: sense that you could kind of like this wasn't really 847 00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,960 Speaker 1: existential in the state, This wasn't really totally on the ballot, 848 00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,400 Speaker 1: and so they voted for some Republican members of Congress. 849 00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,200 Speaker 1: But in a state like Pennsylvania, where there was a 850 00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:06,400 Speaker 1: possibility of trifector Republican control, you know, it was a 851 00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,279 Speaker 1: very very different scenario. Ultimately, I think you're right. Yeah, look, 852 00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,320 Speaker 1: stunning takeaway. On the Senate right now, as things stand 853 00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:15,279 Speaker 1: right now where you and I are filming this, Democrats 854 00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,960 Speaker 1: have forty eight seats, Republicans have forty seven. We have 855 00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,920 Speaker 1: several that are still outstanding. However, the probability is is 856 00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:25,479 Speaker 1: that Dems could keep the Senate. What would you pegg 857 00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:28,040 Speaker 1: it at percentage wise? I'd give them what sixty percent 858 00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,560 Speaker 1: something like that. Yeah, okay, okay, So you've got three 859 00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:34,840 Speaker 1: that are still out right Georgia, Nevada, Arizona. Democrats have 860 00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:38,319 Speaker 1: to win two of those, yes, so which is not 861 00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:41,160 Speaker 1: a bad bet right now? No, I mean Arizona looks 862 00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:44,520 Speaker 1: really pretty likely to go Democrat. So then you're talking 863 00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:48,080 Speaker 1: about they got to win one out of Nevada and Georgia. 864 00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:50,560 Speaker 1: If I had to say right now, I'd say they 865 00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:53,840 Speaker 1: probably win them both, but Nevada is the one. I mean, 866 00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,400 Speaker 1: they're both very uncertain because Georgia goes to runoff who 867 00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:58,640 Speaker 1: knows what the national mood is there Nevada. We don't 868 00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:00,359 Speaker 1: know what mail is out, so either one of them 869 00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,719 Speaker 1: could go either way. But yeah, you would much rather 870 00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:04,800 Speaker 1: be the Democrats right now. In terms of Senate control, 871 00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:12,480 Speaker 1: in my opinion, still looks most likely that Republicans are 872 00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,200 Speaker 1: going to get control of the House. But I am 873 00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,400 Speaker 1: shocked that we sit here at nine oh eight am 874 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,200 Speaker 1: the morning after and that that is not totally abundantly. 875 00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,520 Speaker 1: Democrats still very much in the hunt on this thing, 876 00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:33,880 Speaker 1: and based on what's already been called, Democrats have net 877 00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:37,319 Speaker 1: lost one seat, Republicans have net gained one seat, So 878 00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,440 Speaker 1: they need to gain ultimately three seats in order to 879 00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:42,759 Speaker 1: take control. It's not a lot, but that's all they need. 880 00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:46,719 Speaker 1: They need to get to two eighteen, so they you know, 881 00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:49,319 Speaker 1: a lot is going to depend on what comes out 882 00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:53,400 Speaker 1: of Nevada. There are I think three congressional seats there 883 00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:57,000 Speaker 1: that are real toss ups, and also what comes out 884 00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:00,200 Speaker 1: of California, where there are a whole slew of I mean, 885 00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,040 Speaker 1: there's like a million congressional races in California every year, 886 00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:04,560 Speaker 1: and so a lot is going to come down to 887 00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,000 Speaker 1: what happens in those two states, which we probably are 888 00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:10,279 Speaker 1: not going to know for a little while. So remarkable. 889 00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,360 Speaker 1: Just this was one that I felt really comment. Of 890 00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:15,120 Speaker 1: course Republicans are going to win the House. Of course, 891 00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:16,840 Speaker 1: it's going to be a by pretty handy margin. We 892 00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,359 Speaker 1: both were saying twenty four seats they would probably gain, 893 00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,719 Speaker 1: which was kind of the baseline prediction of what all 894 00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,560 Speaker 1: the oddsmakers were saying. They are not going to win 895 00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:28,320 Speaker 1: a net twenty four seats. If they win control again, 896 00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,600 Speaker 1: which is in doubt, they are going to do so 897 00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:36,640 Speaker 1: by a very thin margin, which is absolutely incredible, pathetic 898 00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,719 Speaker 1: showing for Kevin McCarthy. Kevin McCarthy last night, I had 899 00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:43,319 Speaker 1: friends who were at his election party. It was all 900 00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:46,680 Speaker 1: the vibe in there. It was air sucked out of 901 00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,120 Speaker 1: the rooms. He goes on red wedding vibe. He goes 902 00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,160 Speaker 1: on the stage at like three am and he's like, 903 00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:54,439 Speaker 1: it's going to be great, all of this. He if 904 00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:57,719 Speaker 1: he does take the speakership by margin of three yeah, 905 00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:00,879 Speaker 1: his life is going to be a living hell. If 906 00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,720 Speaker 1: he even is able that narrow margin. Marjorie Taylor Green, 907 00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:08,799 Speaker 1: Thomas Massey and these Freedom Coxx guys, his life will 908 00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:13,160 Speaker 1: he will be the most miserable man in Washington, and 909 00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:18,000 Speaker 1: I cannot wait to see it. You already have Thomas 910 00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,480 Speaker 1: Massey being like, hey, I took a real lot of 911 00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,600 Speaker 1: attention about what was happening with Joe Manchin. I think 912 00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,799 Speaker 1: I might do some stuff like that. Really, I like, 913 00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:29,960 Speaker 1: you know, Massy of accomplish very libertarian. He's a libertarian guy. Yeah, 914 00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:33,239 Speaker 1: but you know, I like chaos, and that's something he's 915 00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:34,640 Speaker 1: very looking in a mind of his own. And I 916 00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:37,839 Speaker 1: always opink that you've got Matt Gates and Marjorie they 917 00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,680 Speaker 1: are gonna make Kevin's life a living hell. Also, some 918 00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:44,640 Speaker 1: reports out right now it's possible that Kevin McCarthy does 919 00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,440 Speaker 1: not have a mandate and Steve Scalise may knife him 920 00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,200 Speaker 1: in the back and may actually take control. And that 921 00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:53,840 Speaker 1: was Fox News was reporting that today that if Kevin 922 00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:57,080 Speaker 1: cannot show that he has the ability to take control 923 00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,319 Speaker 1: of the Caucus, then Steve Galise will have to cut 924 00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:01,759 Speaker 1: a deal with the Freedom Caucus and he could come 925 00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:05,040 Speaker 1: in and sweep. So and again that's if the Republicans 926 00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:07,719 Speaker 1: hold onto that. So correct me if I'm wrong. It's 927 00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:09,880 Speaker 1: going to take a while for the House because of California. 928 00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,399 Speaker 1: I think so because California has a couple seats which 929 00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:14,880 Speaker 1: are up and down, and man, they just take weeks 930 00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:16,960 Speaker 1: to count votes. We never take notice on the national 931 00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:20,160 Speaker 1: level because it's Californa calari it's a gun deal. Given 932 00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:22,440 Speaker 1: that they have so much mail in vote, they take 933 00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,200 Speaker 1: weeks and weeks to give us the result. We may 934 00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:27,239 Speaker 1: not know this for quite a long It may take 935 00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,640 Speaker 1: a while. And you know, they had hopes that they 936 00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:31,960 Speaker 1: would be able to knock out like a Katie Porter. Right, 937 00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,759 Speaker 1: those were where Biden won by you know, more than 938 00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,480 Speaker 1: ten points, right, those were totally off the table. Just 939 00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:39,360 Speaker 1: to dig into well, let me first give you the 940 00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:43,960 Speaker 1: overall projections from NBC News based on their like forecasting model. 941 00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:48,360 Speaker 1: They ultimately think that the GOP takes control. Again, remember 942 00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,000 Speaker 1: you have to get to two eighteen is control. They 943 00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:53,520 Speaker 1: project that the GP is going to get to twenty 944 00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,040 Speaker 1: Democrats two fifteen, and that projection is plus or minus ten. 945 00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:01,080 Speaker 1: So really still up in the air. New York Times 946 00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:04,439 Speaker 1: has it a little bit better for Republicans. They gave 947 00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,719 Speaker 1: Republicans projected a more slightly more comfortable margin, but still 948 00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,200 Speaker 1: we're talking about, you know, a ten seed margin something 949 00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:15,360 Speaker 1: like that. So House control. You know, the the analysis 950 00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,319 Speaker 1: I've seen as Democrats have maybe like a twenty five 951 00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:20,040 Speaker 1: percent chance of holding on to it. Which again, if 952 00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:21,640 Speaker 1: you told me we'd be sitting here in the morning 953 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,160 Speaker 1: after and it would be unclear and Democrats would still 954 00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,040 Speaker 1: be in the hunt, I would I just would not 955 00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,080 Speaker 1: have believed you that that was going to ultimately be 956 00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,760 Speaker 1: the case. Right. I want to dig into a couple 957 00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,840 Speaker 1: of the more noteworthy results here, because there are some 958 00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,520 Speaker 1: that are really interesting. First, I have to say, okay, overall, 959 00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:40,359 Speaker 1: Democrats good night, may even hold on to the House, 960 00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:44,600 Speaker 1: ultimately looking pretty good for the Senate Sean Patrick Maloney, 961 00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,840 Speaker 1: who is the head of the d trible seat. He 962 00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,560 Speaker 1: is the dude who is supposed to be responsible for 963 00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:54,720 Speaker 1: Democrats keeping the House. He looks likely to lose his seat. 964 00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:58,160 Speaker 1: And it's like a Biden plus ten district in New York. 965 00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:03,120 Speaker 1: Not only that he pulled all kinds of like nefarious, 966 00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:07,479 Speaker 1: underhanded shenanigans to jump after the New York redistricting comes 967 00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,920 Speaker 1: out to jump into this district and bigfoot mondere Jones, 968 00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:13,279 Speaker 1: who was like a sort of pseudo squad member, to 969 00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,160 Speaker 1: bigfoot him and push him out. Monde Jones ends up 970 00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,919 Speaker 1: losing in a primary in a different district because Sean 971 00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:22,160 Speaker 1: Patrick Maloney thought this district would be more comfortable for 972 00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:25,759 Speaker 1: him to win than the other reacher On district, which 973 00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:30,359 Speaker 1: had much more of the turf that he is currently representing. 974 00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:34,040 Speaker 1: Now it is still close. They have not called that race. 975 00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:37,320 Speaker 1: But this morning, Sean Patrick Maloney is down. There is 976 00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,960 Speaker 1: some real karmic justice in the fact that he may 977 00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:42,760 Speaker 1: lose the seat again in a Biden plus ten district 978 00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,480 Speaker 1: where you know, all kinds of Democrats across the country 979 00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:48,640 Speaker 1: and even some places that Trump won were able to 980 00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:53,360 Speaker 1: hold onto their seats. Just so utterly pathetic that this 981 00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:55,759 Speaker 1: guy might go down, and I cannot help but just 982 00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,760 Speaker 1: chuckle about them home. He's a little weasel. Yeah, it's funny, totally. 983 00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:01,520 Speaker 1: Did we talk about bober yet, Yeah, that's fun That's 984 00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:04,960 Speaker 1: another one. Listen, guys, there is some karma left in 985 00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:08,879 Speaker 1: this world, and Lauren Bobert things are not looking up 986 00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,240 Speaker 1: for her right now. So okay, let me go ahead 987 00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:15,319 Speaker 1: and read the results here exactly so for lowenb for 988 00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:20,959 Speaker 1: Lauren Bobert in Colorado. Here's where things stand at this moment. 989 00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:24,120 Speaker 1: Ninety percent of the votes in Colorado House are in 990 00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:29,359 Speaker 1: fresh her Democratic opponent fifty point six, Bobert forty nine 991 00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:32,479 Speaker 1: point four. So she's hanging on. It's very sorry. She's 992 00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:35,600 Speaker 1: down by one point, but ten percent of the vote 993 00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:38,040 Speaker 1: that is left in there. There is no real projection 994 00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:41,239 Speaker 1: even if she does win, to win in a you know, 995 00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:44,440 Speaker 1: a red district of which you were hailed as some 996 00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:47,719 Speaker 1: next Maga star and to barely hang on. Look, you 997 00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,400 Speaker 1: give it to Marjorie. She won that seat outright, it 998 00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,200 Speaker 1: wasn't even closed and they called it immediately. She can 999 00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,520 Speaker 1: at least back it up well her way than the 1000 00:50:56,560 --> 00:50:58,480 Speaker 1: rest of the country. She was in Georgia. But Georgia, 1001 00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,719 Speaker 1: I was thinking, right, yeah, but anyway, I mean, here's 1002 00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:02,680 Speaker 1: the point. Actually, it makes it even more noteworthy because 1003 00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:07,359 Speaker 1: of Georgia, which is, you know, effectively blueish purple. Right now, 1004 00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:12,239 Speaker 1: so Marjorie actually won her district, Lauren Bobert is if 1005 00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:16,080 Speaker 1: she hangs on, it will be by the closest of threads. 1006 00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:20,040 Speaker 1: And will she modify her behavior as a congressman. Seriously, 1007 00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:22,400 Speaker 1: it's gonna have one of those major look in the 1008 00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:24,920 Speaker 1: mirror times to be like, well, hold on a second ear, 1009 00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:28,680 Speaker 1: because this all this like sucking up to Trump and 1010 00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:31,399 Speaker 1: trying to turn into some turning point star and all 1011 00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:34,280 Speaker 1: that turns out the people of Colorado not so happy 1012 00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:36,480 Speaker 1: about that. I mean, this is one where it really 1013 00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:40,360 Speaker 1: is very clear referendum on the candidate. Yes, very abslut 1014 00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:44,840 Speaker 1: and the Red district election denial, stop the steal just 1015 00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:48,839 Speaker 1: being like a lunatic on a daily basis, like a 1016 00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,160 Speaker 1: fake Sarah Palin. Yeah, get to Sarah. I think she 1017 00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:53,640 Speaker 1: was actually being herself, Like Lauren Bobert is just like 1018 00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:56,200 Speaker 1: a carbon copy of her, of her Sara Palin was 1019 00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,279 Speaker 1: on the bell last night too. I don't know what's 1020 00:51:58,440 --> 00:51:59,960 Speaker 1: we won't know that one for a while. The last 1021 00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:04,640 Speaker 1: has weird run choice whatever. But you know, this is 1022 00:52:04,680 --> 00:52:07,640 Speaker 1: one of those that I looked at and was again like, oh, 1023 00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,960 Speaker 1: some of the old laws of political gravity do apply. 1024 00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:14,719 Speaker 1: It's not just all national mood, it's not just all 1025 00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:18,120 Speaker 1: partisan lean. There is some thinking going on here, and 1026 00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:20,960 Speaker 1: you can cross the line with voters where even people 1027 00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:25,000 Speaker 1: who are typically voting Republican are like, nah, this you 1028 00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:28,279 Speaker 1: Lauren Bobert, you are a bridge too far and I'm 1029 00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:29,880 Speaker 1: going to hold my nose and Beth for the Democrat, 1030 00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:33,399 Speaker 1: even though I normally wouldn't. Was a beautiful thing, Crystal. Yes, 1031 00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,200 Speaker 1: there is some of it left in this world. I 1032 00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:38,080 Speaker 1: will be honest with you. I feel far not far less, 1033 00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,800 Speaker 1: still quite cynical, but you know I was, I truly believe. 1034 00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:43,200 Speaker 1: I'm like, I think Trump and many of these candids, 1035 00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:44,840 Speaker 1: I'm like, they cod shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and 1036 00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:48,640 Speaker 1: they just went, well, that's that mantra, that mantra that 1037 00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:51,919 Speaker 1: was synonymous with the Trump era of nothing matters, right, 1038 00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:54,200 Speaker 1: no longer true. I mean, that's what it felt like 1039 00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:57,160 Speaker 1: last night, is like, oh, actually, you know, some of 1040 00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,880 Speaker 1: the things Biden did matter the Supreme Court and what 1041 00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:03,560 Speaker 1: they did matter, some of the most like fringe, craziest 1042 00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:08,319 Speaker 1: extremist candidates that mattered, and so yeah, it was. It 1043 00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:10,640 Speaker 1: was just a very different dynamic than what we've been 1044 00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,799 Speaker 1: seeing in the Trump era. I've got a couple more 1045 00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:14,239 Speaker 1: that I want to go through. So, first of all, 1046 00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:18,440 Speaker 1: some of the frontline Democratic candidates were able to get through. 1047 00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:22,279 Speaker 1: Alyssa Slotkin, She's Michigan, you know, that was one that Republicans. 1048 00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:24,960 Speaker 1: I mean really people thought she was like, oh, woman walking, 1049 00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,320 Speaker 1: You're right, we thought she was. I thought she was done. 1050 00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:29,759 Speaker 1: I think that's a district Trump actually won, Yes, And 1051 00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:32,279 Speaker 1: she's why she's always like a bell Weather woman. She's 1052 00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:37,400 Speaker 1: able to hold on again dem outperformance in the industrial Midwest, 1053 00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:40,719 Speaker 1: and that shows up there for her. Abigail Spanberger my 1054 00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:43,839 Speaker 1: district in Virginia, this was one that was also seen 1055 00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:47,239 Speaker 1: as a real Bellweather She's able to beat yeslie Vega 1056 00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:51,680 Speaker 1: Quaar down in the Rio Grande Valley, you know, and 1057 00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:54,840 Speaker 1: also Mayra Floraes on the Republican side ends up losing. 1058 00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:57,839 Speaker 1: So we mentioned this earlier, but I think it's worth 1059 00:53:57,840 --> 00:54:02,040 Speaker 1: spending a minute on this. Like the reversion back towards 1060 00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:04,920 Speaker 1: the Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley is another really 1061 00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:08,560 Speaker 1: noteworthy thing about the election results from last night, and 1062 00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:11,319 Speaker 1: it makes the case that Trump was a bit of 1063 00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:15,040 Speaker 1: a singular figure in terms of his appeal there. And 1064 00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:18,080 Speaker 1: you know, we covered the stories where they were like, dude, 1065 00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:20,040 Speaker 1: man gave me a check and it had his name 1066 00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:22,360 Speaker 1: on it, and that seemed pretty good to me. Correct, 1067 00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:25,600 Speaker 1: these Republicans weren't promising anybody checks. If anything, they were like, 1068 00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:27,040 Speaker 1: we're going to cut your checks that you might be 1069 00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:29,680 Speaker 1: getting through social studia already abortion, So I mean, this 1070 00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,880 Speaker 1: is generally pro choice area. I mean, look, you know, 1071 00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:36,560 Speaker 1: Latino Catholicism is not something I pretend to understand, but 1072 00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:39,640 Speaker 1: it is multifaceted given the state where I come from, 1073 00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:42,640 Speaker 1: and I think that certainly. You know, Beto, Look, he 1074 00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:46,359 Speaker 1: made abortion a cornerstone of his campaign. It's basically all 1075 00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:48,360 Speaker 1: he ran on, along with guns, and I think the 1076 00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:51,319 Speaker 1: guns probably heard him significantly more. But look, there's a 1077 00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:53,959 Speaker 1: lot to be learned about the not the fickleness of voters, 1078 00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:57,120 Speaker 1: because that sounds like I'm blaming voters. There's a lot 1079 00:54:57,160 --> 00:55:00,879 Speaker 1: to be learned that these people think for themselves. One 1080 00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:04,799 Speaker 1: year exactly. You never take people for granted. And that 1081 00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:07,239 Speaker 1: is why I love these election results so much, is 1082 00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:10,600 Speaker 1: that voters are telling us we pay attention. I honestly, 1083 00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:12,839 Speaker 1: I was more cynical. I thought people were more checked out. 1084 00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,640 Speaker 1: I thought people were so downtrodden by inflation that they 1085 00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:17,680 Speaker 1: were just going to come and say, screw Joe Biden, 1086 00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:19,799 Speaker 1: screw the Dems. I'm just gonna put my middle finger 1087 00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:21,920 Speaker 1: up to them. Instead, we have one of the most 1088 00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:25,120 Speaker 1: extraordinary results for a sitting president in modern American history. 1089 00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:28,320 Speaker 1: I mean, it is really quite quite astonished when the 1090 00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:30,200 Speaker 1: history books are written. This will be known as one 1091 00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:33,160 Speaker 1: of the biggest turning points in the Biden administration. And 1092 00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:37,000 Speaker 1: we will that's right, we will reflect very much so 1093 00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,600 Speaker 1: on this as a major turning point to something I 1094 00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:43,040 Speaker 1: don't know what it is. It will impact twenty twenty four, 1095 00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:45,720 Speaker 1: it will impact democratic policy, it will impact the GOP 1096 00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,120 Speaker 1: for many, many years to come. And it shows us 1097 00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:51,200 Speaker 1: that nothing is ironclad. The realignment is not over. It 1098 00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:54,320 Speaker 1: is not set in stone nuts Everton is not at 1099 00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:56,800 Speaker 1: a company. Also, the culture war, the culture war is 1100 00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,120 Speaker 1: not over, not even close abortion. It's just heating up, folks. 1101 00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:02,279 Speaker 1: When Kentucky, Well, we're about to talk about that, Yeah 1102 00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:05,759 Speaker 1: I did, Yeah, I mean a couple more things to 1103 00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:09,520 Speaker 1: say about the House. I have to point out Summerlee, 1104 00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:14,839 Speaker 1: who's progressive like Bernie aligned progressive, who won a very 1105 00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:19,880 Speaker 1: fierce primary in a Pittsburgh area district. She was She 1106 00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,520 Speaker 1: was targeted by Apak in that primary and basically accused 1107 00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:24,480 Speaker 1: of being like anti Semitic and all of this stuff 1108 00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:27,680 Speaker 1: that doesn't work. She wins narrowly well. Republicans thought they 1109 00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:31,560 Speaker 1: had a chance at her in the general election, and 1110 00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:35,879 Speaker 1: Apak went from in the primary running ads saying she's 1111 00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:39,319 Speaker 1: insufficiently loyal to the Democratic Party. In the general, they 1112 00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:42,400 Speaker 1: team up with the Republican Party and run ads against her. Again. 1113 00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:45,759 Speaker 1: Part of what happened there is, you know, not just 1114 00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:49,960 Speaker 1: sort of wish casting the gigantic red wave that would 1115 00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:52,600 Speaker 1: even sweep out people like summer Lee or deter her 1116 00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:56,800 Speaker 1: from victory. But you also had this weird situation where 1117 00:56:57,040 --> 00:57:02,000 Speaker 1: the Republican had the same name as the previous Democratic 1118 00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:03,840 Speaker 1: incumbent in the district. So there was a lot of 1119 00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:06,040 Speaker 1: nervousness that voters were like going to get confused and 1120 00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:08,440 Speaker 1: not know that this was a Republican and think they 1121 00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:10,480 Speaker 1: were voting for the guy that they used to vote for. 1122 00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:13,880 Speaker 1: That did not pan on at all. Summerly won comfortably 1123 00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:16,880 Speaker 1: by something like ten percentage points in her Pittsburgh district. 1124 00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,880 Speaker 1: So then again a little bit of karma justice for 1125 00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:24,480 Speaker 1: the APAC folks. Oh yeah, big time. That's a funny one. Yeah. 1126 00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:27,000 Speaker 1: So look, house takeaway, We're not going to know for 1127 00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:29,400 Speaker 1: a while. It's way closer than it should be, and 1128 00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:33,280 Speaker 1: that's pretty humiliating for the Republicans on a macro level. 1129 00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:35,960 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy, he's got a massive problem on his hands. 1130 00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:37,840 Speaker 1: I'm going to be if he does even end up 1131 00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:40,120 Speaker 1: winning the speakership. Yeah. By the way, with Nancy Pelosi, 1132 00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:42,760 Speaker 1: a lot of questions she might stay. She gave an 1133 00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:45,400 Speaker 1: interview with Anderson Cooper a couple of days ago where 1134 00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:47,520 Speaker 1: she said that the Paul Pelosi attack could impact her 1135 00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:50,240 Speaker 1: decision to leave early. I don't know if it's true. 1136 00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:52,800 Speaker 1: Do I think that Nancy could really pass up the 1137 00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:56,600 Speaker 1: pastor again being speaker again? No? I think her ego 1138 00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:58,120 Speaker 1: is far too big for that. So it would be 1139 00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,480 Speaker 1: my inclination as well. But hey, let's you never know. 1140 00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:03,320 Speaker 1: Maybe she actually, you know, go through a real health 1141 00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:09,200 Speaker 1: trauma association. Right, Okay, let's move on now to the 1142 00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:12,880 Speaker 1: gubernatorial races. Lots to say and look at this one. 1143 00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:16,080 Speaker 1: The major takeaway, obviously at the beginning of the night 1144 00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:21,400 Speaker 1: was Ron DeSantis total blowout, I mean, nineteen point four 1145 00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:24,479 Speaker 1: percent victory. I also do want to give Florida credit 1146 00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:26,080 Speaker 1: for one thing. They count their votes very quickly. I 1147 00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:28,160 Speaker 1: don't know what they're doing down there. Can we all 1148 00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:32,120 Speaker 1: replicate that possibly Arizona? Everybody take notice. Florida has a 1149 00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:33,800 Speaker 1: lot of people. They have a lot of mail Inbowts, 1150 00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:35,000 Speaker 1: they have a lot of old people. They seem to 1151 00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:37,920 Speaker 1: figure it out. So let's figure that out for everybody anyway. 1152 00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:40,520 Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis fifty nine point four percent of the vote, 1153 00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:44,240 Speaker 1: Charlie Cris forty percent, not even close. Humiliating defeat. Charlie 1154 00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:47,480 Speaker 1: Cris has now won three national or sorry, statewide or 1155 00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:51,040 Speaker 1: nactual election, lost three elections basically in a row. So 1156 00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:54,600 Speaker 1: one of the worst performing candidates of all time in 1157 00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:58,240 Speaker 1: Florida history. Congratulations for nominating him. I hope we never 1158 00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:02,720 Speaker 1: have to see his likeness again. Pennsylvania, huge development there 1159 00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:05,040 Speaker 1: and this honestly might be one of the biggest takeaways 1160 00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:08,360 Speaker 1: of the night. Josh Shapiro fifty five point five percent 1161 00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:12,800 Speaker 1: of the vote. Wasn't even close. Doug Mostreano forty two 1162 00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:18,040 Speaker 1: point seven thirteen point for Doug Mostreano there. Honestly, it 1163 00:59:18,040 --> 00:59:21,040 Speaker 1: could have helped Fetterman. He I think some Shapiro coattails 1164 00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:22,960 Speaker 1: may have bled into Fetterman, although you know he's a 1165 00:59:22,960 --> 00:59:25,400 Speaker 1: good candidate in his own right. So much to say 1166 00:59:25,400 --> 00:59:28,680 Speaker 1: on Mostreano. Don't be a freak, I think is number one. 1167 00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:32,480 Speaker 1: Don't be a freak, because what is it? It encompasses 1168 00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:37,720 Speaker 1: everything you know. We can't disaggregate abortion January sixth, Stop 1169 00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:40,600 Speaker 1: the steal, all this other stuff. We should just put 1170 00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:42,760 Speaker 1: it in a box and just be like, yeah, this 1171 00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:46,560 Speaker 1: guy's weirdo, you know. And that's almost dropped a big 1172 00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,400 Speaker 1: f bomb, and I think that's enough for a lot 1173 00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:51,680 Speaker 1: of people who are like, no, I'm not doing this, 1174 00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:55,040 Speaker 1: and it's noteworthy. Oz almost won. I mean he came 1175 00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,760 Speaker 1: within a point, so clearly there was a ton of 1176 00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:01,360 Speaker 1: split ticket voting. Yeah, Shapiro, Oz vote and for that 1177 01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:04,320 Speaker 1: as a major takeaway for the GOP, you know, this 1178 01:00:04,360 --> 01:00:08,200 Speaker 1: is one where I'm not even gonna blame Trump, although 1179 01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:10,120 Speaker 1: of course he is to blame for creating stop to steal. 1180 01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:12,240 Speaker 1: The base love this guy, and this is going to 1181 01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:14,640 Speaker 1: be a big question to me, meta question for the 1182 01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:16,560 Speaker 1: whole night. Marshall said something that's really stuck with me. 1183 01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:19,840 Speaker 1: Republican base doesn't care about electability. They care about loyalty 1184 01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:21,880 Speaker 1: to Trump. They care about a lot of crazy shit, 1185 01:00:22,240 --> 01:00:24,280 Speaker 1: and there's no evidence that they actually care about winning 1186 01:00:24,280 --> 01:00:26,400 Speaker 1: elections at all the same you know, I mean, it's 1187 01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:28,800 Speaker 1: not like the evangelicals have ever cared whether being pro 1188 01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:30,600 Speaker 1: life is popular or not. They just want to rail 1189 01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:34,280 Speaker 1: it through our legal system. I wonder if this will 1190 01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:36,600 Speaker 1: shift their thinking. I personally don't think so. I think 1191 01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:39,360 Speaker 1: the GOP base loves Trump too much. I think many 1192 01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:41,440 Speaker 1: of them don't actually care that all that much about power, 1193 01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:43,800 Speaker 1: and they would much rather have the antics piss off 1194 01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:46,960 Speaker 1: the media all that stuff. I'mary they want out their fighter, 1195 01:00:47,120 --> 01:00:49,160 Speaker 1: piss off the left and you know whatever, you could 1196 01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:52,120 Speaker 1: say Trump, that's his ultimate skill. Do you think this 1197 01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:55,880 Speaker 1: will have any impact on the GOP base going forward 1198 01:00:56,080 --> 01:01:00,520 Speaker 1: after they pick such a massive loser. I tend to yeah, 1199 01:01:00,840 --> 01:01:04,520 Speaker 1: because I just think that you know, listen, we're gonna 1200 01:01:04,520 --> 01:01:06,440 Speaker 1: talk more about twenty twenty four a minute. But Trump 1201 01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:08,840 Speaker 1: is going to have his narrative, right He's he's already 1202 01:01:09,080 --> 01:01:12,600 Speaker 1: apparently the way, he's already testing out what your action. 1203 01:01:12,680 --> 01:01:15,960 Speaker 1: He's going. I saw him on true social like claiming 1204 01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:19,560 Speaker 1: great victory. You know, I'm sure he'll he'll pick and choose. 1205 01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:21,960 Speaker 1: He'll like rite, oh, the great Judy Vans like always 1206 01:01:22,000 --> 01:01:23,880 Speaker 1: believed in him or whatever, like the place is where 1207 01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:25,920 Speaker 1: he wins, or he may go in the direction of 1208 01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:27,760 Speaker 1: leg it was all rigged and you know it was 1209 01:01:27,840 --> 01:01:30,680 Speaker 1: wildly unfair and whatever and whatever he says, like there's 1210 01:01:30,800 --> 01:01:33,480 Speaker 1: a probably majority of the Republican base that will go 1211 01:01:33,520 --> 01:01:36,520 Speaker 1: along with it. Right, So there is a very elite 1212 01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:40,640 Speaker 1: effort right now, Fox News and the Daily Wire folks, 1213 01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:44,480 Speaker 1: you know, Michael Brendon Doherty, like they're going all in 1214 01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:47,000 Speaker 1: on and they have a very compelling case to make. 1215 01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:48,880 Speaker 1: You got round standas down here. He just did it. 1216 01:01:48,880 --> 01:01:51,600 Speaker 1: He won Florida by what like twenty freaking points, and 1217 01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:56,400 Speaker 1: the Trump nominees were gigantic l's across the entire map, 1218 01:01:56,560 --> 01:01:59,640 Speaker 1: Like choose your future for the Republican Party. I just 1219 01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:02,360 Speaker 1: I don't know. They're not wrong. Look, d is correct, 1220 01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:05,240 Speaker 1: they are correct. Shapiro is correct. There is no evidence 1221 01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:07,920 Speaker 1: that GOP voters care about that, right if you're like, 1222 01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:10,240 Speaker 1: the future of the Republican Party is the most important 1223 01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:12,280 Speaker 1: thing to me, Okay, Like they have a very compelling 1224 01:02:12,360 --> 01:02:15,080 Speaker 1: case to make, but you know, and that also assumes 1225 01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:20,280 Speaker 1: that the facts aren't going to be massaged by Trump 1226 01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:23,840 Speaker 1: and his own media outlets in a way that's that's 1227 01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:25,920 Speaker 1: going to be favorable for them. I mean, let me 1228 01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:30,880 Speaker 1: also say, like about Mastriano, there were a lot of 1229 01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:34,800 Speaker 1: we had a lot to say about Democrats bolstering candidates 1230 01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:41,360 Speaker 1: like him, Don Bulldock were in news. Every one of 1231 01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:45,520 Speaker 1: the freaks and weirdos that Democrats backed in and who 1232 01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:48,080 Speaker 1: won their primaries on the Republican side, So you know, 1233 01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:51,720 Speaker 1: stop the steal like election deniers that Democrats bolsters bolstered. 1234 01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:54,400 Speaker 1: Every one of them lost. So the gam I mean, 1235 01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:57,160 Speaker 1: they were playing with fire, especially with the you know 1236 01:02:57,240 --> 01:02:59,480 Speaker 1: fundamentals as they were in the pulling environment that I 1237 01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:02,360 Speaker 1: cannot give and president, they were playing with fire. The 1238 01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:05,840 Speaker 1: gamble paid off for them in a very significant way. 1239 01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:08,919 Speaker 1: So ultimately you have to say, like it was hypocritical, 1240 01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:12,320 Speaker 1: it was maybe not the smartest thing to do, but 1241 01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:15,760 Speaker 1: your bet it paid off for you. I think you're correct, 1242 01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:17,400 Speaker 1: which is that I hate to say it because I 1243 01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:19,240 Speaker 1: don't want those type of cynical things to work. But 1244 01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:22,120 Speaker 1: every single one of those people lost on the gubernatorial level, 1245 01:03:22,120 --> 01:03:23,800 Speaker 1: and that is going to be a big takeaway for 1246 01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:27,080 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. I lost on the gubernatorial level. Every 1247 01:03:27,120 --> 01:03:30,800 Speaker 1: single one of the candidates that Democrats on the Republican 1248 01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:33,240 Speaker 1: side that they bolstered, that they basically picked like this 1249 01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:35,000 Speaker 1: is the one we want to run against. Every one 1250 01:03:35,080 --> 01:03:36,880 Speaker 1: of them lost. Let that one sink in Okay. On 1251 01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,560 Speaker 1: a gubernatorial races, let's move to the Midwest, because this, 1252 01:03:40,760 --> 01:03:43,200 Speaker 1: in my mind, is incredibly significant. It is not getting 1253 01:03:43,280 --> 01:03:46,720 Speaker 1: the analysis that it is due Gretchen Whitmer blew out 1254 01:03:46,720 --> 01:03:49,200 Speaker 1: Tutor Dixon last night ninety four percent of the votes 1255 01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:52,040 Speaker 1: that are in fifty three point five to Tutor Dixon's 1256 01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:54,840 Speaker 1: forty four point eight nearly a ten point victory. Wow 1257 01:03:54,880 --> 01:03:56,920 Speaker 1: in the state of Michigan, and what was considered to 1258 01:03:56,920 --> 01:04:00,000 Speaker 1: be a genuine toss up race. Obviously Trump won Michigan 1259 01:04:00,160 --> 01:04:03,439 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen. It was considered, you know, a purplish state. 1260 01:04:03,800 --> 01:04:05,880 Speaker 1: This is where I think you can't say this one 1261 01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:08,960 Speaker 1: is abor. This is abortion, abortion, abortion, abortion. I can 1262 01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:12,600 Speaker 1: say it a million times because of their constitutional amendment 1263 01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:14,680 Speaker 1: which was on the books, because of the vote that 1264 01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:18,000 Speaker 1: was happening in the abortion referendum. Also because Tudor Dixon 1265 01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:20,000 Speaker 1: had come out and said, I don't know if you 1266 01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:22,280 Speaker 1: said ban outright, but she was kind of pretty close 1267 01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:25,600 Speaker 1: to even no exceptions of incests or the life of 1268 01:04:25,640 --> 01:04:28,880 Speaker 1: a mother. And look, losing by nine points in state 1269 01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:32,400 Speaker 1: that Trump basically one in twenty sixteen, nearly tied in 1270 01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:36,240 Speaker 1: twenty twenty is humiliating. This is also, by the way, 1271 01:04:36,400 --> 01:04:38,560 Speaker 1: this isn't just the Trump back candidate, Crystal, this is 1272 01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:41,680 Speaker 1: a Mike Pence back candidate. This is Betsy Devas back candidate. 1273 01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:43,880 Speaker 1: So this shows you it's not just stop to steal folks, 1274 01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:46,240 Speaker 1: even though she dabbled a little bit with that. These 1275 01:04:46,280 --> 01:04:49,479 Speaker 1: are people who are straight up normy ass Republicans who 1276 01:04:49,560 --> 01:04:52,920 Speaker 1: on the abortion front got clobbered. In the Midwest. Whitmark 1277 01:04:53,120 --> 01:04:56,480 Speaker 1: takeaway a major target for Republicans. They really wanted to 1278 01:04:56,520 --> 01:05:00,520 Speaker 1: take her out. You know, in Wisconsin, neighboring state, Evers 1279 01:05:00,600 --> 01:05:03,920 Speaker 1: was actually the underdog coming into election day. He also 1280 01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:06,360 Speaker 1: wins and ends up winning pretty comfortably. It looks like 1281 01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:09,640 Speaker 1: it's going to be by about four points. Minnesota also 1282 01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:13,120 Speaker 1: ends up not being close, and so this is one 1283 01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:15,320 Speaker 1: of the things that has to be unpacked, is like 1284 01:05:15,800 --> 01:05:20,040 Speaker 1: Dems reclaimed some of that blue Wall territory. You know, 1285 01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:22,840 Speaker 1: this looks more like some of the numbers from before 1286 01:05:23,000 --> 01:05:27,240 Speaker 1: the Trump era when you're looking at in Michigan, Gretchen 1287 01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:31,240 Speaker 1: Whitmer potentially winning by ten full points, and even in Ohio, 1288 01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:33,840 Speaker 1: which is still obviously red state and the governor's level 1289 01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:37,160 Speaker 1: not even close, but Tim Ryan able to claw back 1290 01:05:37,200 --> 01:05:40,200 Speaker 1: a little bit some congressional districts that fliped that were 1291 01:05:40,240 --> 01:05:44,480 Speaker 1: not expected, and so it's you know, in Pennsylvania, dem 1292 01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:47,560 Speaker 1: over performance really across the board. So the story of 1293 01:05:47,560 --> 01:05:50,680 Speaker 1: what happened in the Midwest to me is a very interesting, 1294 01:05:51,040 --> 01:05:55,240 Speaker 1: interesting one. The other one that I literally know nothing 1295 01:05:55,280 --> 01:06:01,040 Speaker 1: about this race, but this is astonishing. Kansas too close 1296 01:06:01,120 --> 01:06:05,080 Speaker 1: to call, with the Democratic and Comment in the lead, 1297 01:06:05,640 --> 01:06:09,000 Speaker 1: crazy crazy forty nine point two percent to forty seven 1298 01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:12,040 Speaker 1: point six percent. You know, Kansas famously they had that 1299 01:06:12,080 --> 01:06:16,280 Speaker 1: abortion referendum what just happened overwhelmingly for the pro choice side, 1300 01:06:16,920 --> 01:06:19,160 Speaker 1: so you know that may have something to do with 1301 01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:22,800 Speaker 1: it here, but again it really goes to that, like 1302 01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:26,480 Speaker 1: you have to actually peel to voters. You can't take 1303 01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:28,120 Speaker 1: for granted just because it's a red state that they're 1304 01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:30,800 Speaker 1: going to vote for you. Democrats may hold onto the 1305 01:06:30,840 --> 01:06:33,560 Speaker 1: governor's mansion in Kansas, which is kind of crazy. I 1306 01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:37,600 Speaker 1: absolutely love that takeaway. It is just fantastic. Let's continue. 1307 01:06:37,800 --> 01:06:40,880 Speaker 1: You know, Wisconsin also was one which was very much 1308 01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:43,960 Speaker 1: up in the air, but ever's pretty decisive win fifty 1309 01:06:44,000 --> 01:06:46,040 Speaker 1: one percent. They went ahead and called it for him. 1310 01:06:46,240 --> 01:06:50,240 Speaker 1: He bit to beat Tim Meckles. Tim Michaels. That's pretty interesting. 1311 01:06:50,880 --> 01:06:53,920 Speaker 1: So in terms of the other Gubernatoro results, of course, 1312 01:06:54,080 --> 01:06:57,840 Speaker 1: all eyes on Arizona there is just simply it's too 1313 01:06:57,880 --> 01:07:00,320 Speaker 1: close to call. We still only got sixty nine percent 1314 01:07:00,320 --> 01:07:02,840 Speaker 1: of the vote in but I would rather be Carry 1315 01:07:02,920 --> 01:07:05,280 Speaker 1: Lake right now, Katie Hobbs a fifty point three percent 1316 01:07:05,320 --> 01:07:07,680 Speaker 1: of the vote, forty nine point seven for Carry Lake. 1317 01:07:07,880 --> 01:07:11,320 Speaker 1: It's within five point five. You've got eight hundred thousand 1318 01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:15,800 Speaker 1: outstanding ballots. Yes, many of them are in Maricopa, but 1319 01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:18,080 Speaker 1: given the fact that many Carry Lake voters were told 1320 01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:20,120 Speaker 1: to like stay in line, it could be that their 1321 01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:23,000 Speaker 1: votes could be counted later as an older state. We 1322 01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:25,880 Speaker 1: don't necessarily know yet how the EV and all of 1323 01:07:25,880 --> 01:07:28,680 Speaker 1: that breaks, so I don't know. Personally. I would probably 1324 01:07:28,720 --> 01:07:30,800 Speaker 1: bet on Carry Lake to eke it out there, but 1325 01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:33,120 Speaker 1: it's not the blowout that any of us expected. I 1326 01:07:33,120 --> 01:07:35,040 Speaker 1: thought this week, I thought I was a done deal. 1327 01:07:35,200 --> 01:07:36,640 Speaker 1: I thought it was I'm just done. I mean ten 1328 01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:40,440 Speaker 1: point I thought that would have vindicated her as the star, 1329 01:07:40,680 --> 01:07:44,880 Speaker 1: the true heir to Trump too easily the path to 1330 01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:48,320 Speaker 1: be his VP and then his successor. That is now 1331 01:07:48,440 --> 01:07:50,560 Speaker 1: very much in question. I want to look up what 1332 01:07:50,720 --> 01:07:54,240 Speaker 1: some of the polls were in that race heading in 1333 01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:58,560 Speaker 1: because yeah, I mean the polls really consistently had Carry 1334 01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:02,520 Speaker 1: Lake as a massive favorite. Here. I maybe saw one 1335 01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:05,440 Speaker 1: pole that had Katie Hobbs. In fact, I think we 1336 01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:07,560 Speaker 1: covered it. I think it's a Harriss pole maybe that 1337 01:08:07,640 --> 01:08:11,160 Speaker 1: had Katie Hobbs that was up by one. But other 1338 01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:14,120 Speaker 1: than that, it really looked like Carrie Lake had this 1339 01:08:14,200 --> 01:08:17,920 Speaker 1: thing like done and dusted, and that is far from 1340 01:08:18,040 --> 01:08:22,720 Speaker 1: the case. I have no idea what's still outstanding in Arizona, 1341 01:08:22,800 --> 01:08:25,080 Speaker 1: and I'm not sure that anyone really fully knows one 1342 01:08:25,120 --> 01:08:27,920 Speaker 1: hundred percent what is still outstanding? Is it in person? 1343 01:08:28,120 --> 01:08:30,479 Speaker 1: Is it male? They probably have a better sense of 1344 01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:33,360 Speaker 1: where exactly it's going to come from. But you know, 1345 01:08:33,479 --> 01:08:35,320 Speaker 1: this one, I think is going to come down to 1346 01:08:35,760 --> 01:08:38,679 Speaker 1: the wire and we probably won't know for quite a while. 1347 01:08:38,760 --> 01:08:43,400 Speaker 1: But big picture, outside of Carrie Lake, which is a 1348 01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:48,639 Speaker 1: question mark, every single gubernatorial candidate who would not say 1349 01:08:48,680 --> 01:08:51,559 Speaker 1: whether they would certify the election results or not, every 1350 01:08:51,560 --> 01:08:53,840 Speaker 1: one of them lost. Yep, Carry Lake is the only 1351 01:08:53,840 --> 01:08:56,400 Speaker 1: one that's even a question mark. And you know, you 1352 01:08:56,479 --> 01:08:59,879 Speaker 1: have some unique circumstances there with her, like personal charisma 1353 01:09:00,479 --> 01:09:02,800 Speaker 1: versus Katie Hobbs. That is, you know, on the other end, 1354 01:09:02,800 --> 01:09:05,600 Speaker 1: the spectrum of Rana Poor campaign wouldn't debate whatever. So 1355 01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:08,800 Speaker 1: you know, I think that's a pretty dramatic indictment. Also 1356 01:09:08,920 --> 01:09:11,040 Speaker 1: also shows you if Katie Hobbs has just done like 1357 01:09:11,080 --> 01:09:13,120 Speaker 1: a little bit more, she easily could have win. You know, 1358 01:09:13,200 --> 01:09:16,200 Speaker 1: it's like that's she She may still win, but I'm 1359 01:09:16,240 --> 01:09:18,679 Speaker 1: saying like it could have been they could have projected 1360 01:09:18,680 --> 01:09:21,080 Speaker 1: it almost outright, or she could be up there with 1361 01:09:21,080 --> 01:09:24,200 Speaker 1: Mark Kelly in those numbers. So Nevada is the last 1362 01:09:24,320 --> 01:09:28,080 Speaker 1: major race here where again no way to know. Joe 1363 01:09:28,160 --> 01:09:30,400 Speaker 1: Lombardo has got fifty point six percent of the vote, 1364 01:09:31,080 --> 01:09:33,840 Speaker 1: Sisilac is at forty five point eight. There's still twenty 1365 01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:37,120 Speaker 1: percent though, of the votes that remain outstanding. John Ralston, 1366 01:09:37,200 --> 01:09:39,679 Speaker 1: from what he said, says he doesn't necessarily see a path, 1367 01:09:39,720 --> 01:09:43,120 Speaker 1: but it is still possible there. For the Nevada gubernatorial race, 1368 01:09:43,200 --> 01:09:45,000 Speaker 1: I will confess I have not paid that much attention 1369 01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:49,320 Speaker 1: to it. We still don't really know exactly, and of course, 1370 01:09:49,360 --> 01:09:51,720 Speaker 1: you know, on a national level, what we should really 1371 01:09:51,720 --> 01:09:55,599 Speaker 1: pay attention to is the Senate seat there. So final 1372 01:09:55,800 --> 01:09:59,800 Speaker 1: gubernatorial takeaway, I mentioned it before Brian Kemp, one of 1373 01:09:59,840 --> 01:10:02,000 Speaker 1: the major stars of the night, fifty three percent of 1374 01:10:02,040 --> 01:10:05,759 Speaker 1: the vote, blew out Stacy Abrams, winning by almost seven 1375 01:10:06,240 --> 01:10:09,800 Speaker 1: decisive victory that they projected very very early into the night. 1376 01:10:10,280 --> 01:10:12,000 Speaker 1: That's going to be a major question mark for a 1377 01:10:12,000 --> 01:10:14,640 Speaker 1: lot a lot. The major Republican civil war from here 1378 01:10:14,680 --> 01:10:19,040 Speaker 1: on out is do you go the youngkin Kemp DeSantis 1379 01:10:19,080 --> 01:10:22,960 Speaker 1: way right while somehow trying to manage this Trump insanity, 1380 01:10:23,400 --> 01:10:26,240 Speaker 1: or do you just simply bow to Trump personally. I 1381 01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:28,680 Speaker 1: think they have to bow to Trump because he is 1382 01:10:28,720 --> 01:10:30,960 Speaker 1: just so likely to win a primary. Yeah, but this 1383 01:10:31,040 --> 01:10:32,559 Speaker 1: gives a hell of a lot more credence to the 1384 01:10:32,600 --> 01:10:36,280 Speaker 1: dessant decide, Yeah, gotta say. And Kemp himself, the man 1385 01:10:36,360 --> 01:10:39,000 Speaker 1: is a force. He forced Trump to endorse him the 1386 01:10:39,120 --> 01:10:42,280 Speaker 1: hours before the election. He might be one of the 1387 01:10:42,280 --> 01:10:45,320 Speaker 1: only people to stand up beat Trump on his own terms, 1388 01:10:45,479 --> 01:10:47,519 Speaker 1: get re elected in his own state and really forced 1389 01:10:47,560 --> 01:10:49,639 Speaker 1: Trump to capitulate to him, not the other way around. 1390 01:10:49,640 --> 01:10:51,960 Speaker 1: I don't think he would run for a president, but hey, listen, 1391 01:10:52,000 --> 01:10:53,840 Speaker 1: I mean anything is possible. He did a good job. 1392 01:10:54,000 --> 01:10:59,200 Speaker 1: Voters rewarded the Republican candidates who kept some independence from Trump. 1393 01:10:59,560 --> 01:11:02,720 Speaker 1: They did not in a general election. Now it might 1394 01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:05,719 Speaker 1: be a totally different dynamic in a Republican primary, although 1395 01:11:05,760 --> 01:11:07,760 Speaker 1: we didn't see that play on Georgia with Brian Kemp. 1396 01:11:07,760 --> 01:11:10,880 Speaker 1: I mean, he had a Republican primary challenge that you know, 1397 01:11:10,920 --> 01:11:13,280 Speaker 1: a lot of people thought David Purdue was gonna we 1398 01:11:13,280 --> 01:11:15,439 Speaker 1: we thought David Purdue was ultimately going to beat Brian 1399 01:11:15,520 --> 01:11:17,600 Speaker 1: Kemp because of his lack of loyalty to Trump. But 1400 01:11:17,880 --> 01:11:21,680 Speaker 1: in a general election, it is just incredibly clear that 1401 01:11:21,760 --> 01:11:27,440 Speaker 1: candidates like Kemp, like young Kin, like Raethensberger, and like DeSantis, 1402 01:11:27,720 --> 01:11:30,400 Speaker 1: who seemed to have some independent mind of their own 1403 01:11:30,479 --> 01:11:32,800 Speaker 1: and keep Trump at an arms length distance and aren't 1404 01:11:32,800 --> 01:11:36,400 Speaker 1: doing like what that congressional candidate did and like mowe 1405 01:11:36,439 --> 01:11:38,640 Speaker 1: Trump's face into the lawn to try to get his 1406 01:11:38,760 --> 01:11:43,280 Speaker 1: endorsement level of like bowing and scraping to him. There 1407 01:11:43,360 --> 01:11:45,200 Speaker 1: is no doubt about the fact that in a general 1408 01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:49,960 Speaker 1: election voters would much prefer the arms length distance to Trump. 1409 01:11:50,320 --> 01:11:52,960 Speaker 1: And you know, none of the people I just mentioned, 1410 01:11:53,040 --> 01:11:57,280 Speaker 1: especially in the general election, none of them like decried Trump, 1411 01:11:57,439 --> 01:12:00,360 Speaker 1: none of them repudiated Trump, none of them did any 1412 01:12:00,439 --> 01:12:03,280 Speaker 1: of that. But just the fact that it seemed like 1413 01:12:03,320 --> 01:12:05,800 Speaker 1: they had a little bit of independence made a big 1414 01:12:05,800 --> 01:12:09,320 Speaker 1: difference for voters clearly. Now the question is, you know, 1415 01:12:10,080 --> 01:12:13,200 Speaker 1: can you maintain that young Kin had a very special 1416 01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:15,680 Speaker 1: situation where he didn't really have to go through a 1417 01:12:15,680 --> 01:12:22,639 Speaker 1: Republican primary. Trump stayed away from Virginia during that gubernatorial election. 1418 01:12:23,240 --> 01:12:26,080 Speaker 1: That's a very different dynamic than if you're actually in 1419 01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:29,280 Speaker 1: a Republican primary going to go head to head with Trump. 1420 01:12:29,840 --> 01:12:33,080 Speaker 1: Then they don't have that option of maintaining your distance 1421 01:12:33,240 --> 01:12:35,320 Speaker 1: and not having like a hard and fast take on 1422 01:12:35,400 --> 01:12:37,880 Speaker 1: this dude. So it gets a lot more complicated, a 1423 01:12:37,920 --> 01:12:40,400 Speaker 1: lot stickier when you're actually head to head. Absolutely correct. 1424 01:12:40,439 --> 01:12:43,439 Speaker 1: I mean, look, let's insert Kyle's caveat here. The man 1425 01:12:43,479 --> 01:12:45,320 Speaker 1: literally could get indicted and then, you know, I mean 1426 01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:48,160 Speaker 1: actually likely will get indicted. As whether he's convicted, that's 1427 01:12:48,160 --> 01:12:50,720 Speaker 1: anybody's guest. Nobody knows. I have no idea how that 1428 01:12:50,760 --> 01:12:53,519 Speaker 1: will play out, but that injects chaos into the system. 1429 01:12:53,520 --> 01:12:55,760 Speaker 1: It could handicap him, It could make him stronger than ever. 1430 01:12:55,800 --> 01:12:58,320 Speaker 1: I personally think it makes him stronger than ever with 1431 01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:02,639 Speaker 1: the GOP base, nice farily with the national electorate. But look, 1432 01:13:02,680 --> 01:13:05,800 Speaker 1: that's my major takeaway on the gubernatorial level. I think 1433 01:13:05,840 --> 01:13:10,559 Speaker 1: abortion just crushed the down ballot are their gubernatorial candidates 1434 01:13:10,880 --> 01:13:14,920 Speaker 1: in the Midwest. It is clear as day the Gretchen Whitmer. 1435 01:13:15,360 --> 01:13:18,679 Speaker 1: Think about the GOP critique of her on COVID, about 1436 01:13:18,680 --> 01:13:21,720 Speaker 1: how much of a flashpoint that she became with Wisconsin, 1437 01:13:21,800 --> 01:13:24,200 Speaker 1: the same thing happened over there, and for the two 1438 01:13:24,240 --> 01:13:27,160 Speaker 1: of them, and Michigan in particular, for them to come 1439 01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:29,920 Speaker 1: not only win the gubernatorial race but to recapture the 1440 01:13:29,920 --> 01:13:31,920 Speaker 1: state legislature for the first time in twenty years. Yeah, 1441 01:13:32,000 --> 01:13:34,840 Speaker 1: at all levels of government, that's a massive repudiation on 1442 01:13:34,880 --> 01:13:37,600 Speaker 1: the abortion front. I agree, But I don't know that 1443 01:13:38,240 --> 01:13:43,160 Speaker 1: the Midwest is special on abortion versus other places in 1444 01:13:43,200 --> 01:13:44,880 Speaker 1: the country where it was also very much on the 1445 01:13:44,880 --> 01:13:47,599 Speaker 1: back right. So then you have to ask, Okay, well, 1446 01:13:47,640 --> 01:13:50,760 Speaker 1: why the dem out performance in the Midwest, I mean, 1447 01:13:50,840 --> 01:13:53,680 Speaker 1: really consistently from state to state to state. No way 1448 01:13:53,720 --> 01:13:55,680 Speaker 1: to know, and there is no way to know. But 1449 01:13:55,880 --> 01:13:58,800 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think that Lefong's theory here that 1450 01:13:58,880 --> 01:14:03,040 Speaker 1: the fact that Biden's trade policy has actually been pretty good. 1451 01:14:03,080 --> 01:14:06,439 Speaker 1: He's done a lot better visa via the Midwest, just 1452 01:14:06,520 --> 01:14:10,479 Speaker 1: on a like actual policy front than Barack Obama did. 1453 01:14:10,880 --> 01:14:13,680 Speaker 1: And you know, does that help to make the Democrats 1454 01:14:13,720 --> 01:14:17,600 Speaker 1: more acceptable acceptable again in that region. I don't discount that. 1455 01:14:17,760 --> 01:14:21,360 Speaker 1: I think that is, you know, highly plausible. So there's 1456 01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:23,519 Speaker 1: a lot that we're going to be digging into and 1457 01:14:23,560 --> 01:14:26,479 Speaker 1: seeing the numbers on and who turned down and where 1458 01:14:26,479 --> 01:14:28,599 Speaker 1: did they turn ound, Where were the biggest shifts. There's 1459 01:14:28,600 --> 01:14:31,080 Speaker 1: a lot to continue to unpack over the coming days. 1460 01:14:31,120 --> 01:14:35,559 Speaker 1: But you know, the really clear takeaways are Trump and 1461 01:14:35,640 --> 01:14:38,519 Speaker 1: stop the steal in albatross around the neck of the party. Yes, 1462 01:14:39,280 --> 01:14:42,120 Speaker 1: big question mark over whether the Republican base is going 1463 01:14:42,160 --> 01:14:44,519 Speaker 1: to see that or care or not. And then the 1464 01:14:44,560 --> 01:14:49,040 Speaker 1: other big takeaways. Obviously Roll versus Wade was incredibly significant 1465 01:14:49,400 --> 01:14:53,160 Speaker 1: here in terms of you know, how voters what voters 1466 01:14:53,200 --> 01:14:55,920 Speaker 1: decided to go to the ballot box and vote on. 1467 01:14:56,760 --> 01:14:58,479 Speaker 1: We wanted to take a little bit of a look 1468 01:14:58,520 --> 01:15:00,920 Speaker 1: at some of the ballot measures as well, because there 1469 01:15:00,920 --> 01:15:05,000 Speaker 1: were some really interesting ones. Speaking of abortion, every single 1470 01:15:05,080 --> 01:15:08,560 Speaker 1: state where it was on the ballot, from California to Kentucky, 1471 01:15:09,200 --> 01:15:13,080 Speaker 1: the pro choice position on these ballot initiatives, and I 1472 01:15:13,120 --> 01:15:15,760 Speaker 1: think there were five of them, looks set to win. 1473 01:15:15,880 --> 01:15:20,400 Speaker 1: So a clean sweep for abortion rights and states as 1474 01:15:20,479 --> 01:15:26,880 Speaker 1: different as you know, Montana and Michigan and California and Kentucky, 1475 01:15:27,160 --> 01:15:29,320 Speaker 1: you had a consistent result here. Now, some of these 1476 01:15:29,400 --> 01:15:33,120 Speaker 1: haven't been called yet, so they're still a little bit 1477 01:15:33,160 --> 01:15:35,639 Speaker 1: in doubt. But right now it looks like every single 1478 01:15:35,760 --> 01:15:39,599 Speaker 1: abortion referendum is going to end on the pro choice side. 1479 01:15:39,640 --> 01:15:42,559 Speaker 1: That is so insane stunning, right, I mean, yeah, well, look, Michigan, 1480 01:15:42,680 --> 01:15:46,400 Speaker 1: it wasn't close again and actually, shocker, very closely mirrors 1481 01:15:46,400 --> 01:15:49,679 Speaker 1: the Gubernatora results fifty five to forty four, almost exactly 1482 01:15:49,720 --> 01:15:52,679 Speaker 1: the margin that Gretchen Whitmer. I think the major one 1483 01:15:52,680 --> 01:15:54,720 Speaker 1: is Kentucky. I mean they're fifty one point four to 1484 01:15:54,760 --> 01:15:57,240 Speaker 1: forty eight point six on removing the right to an 1485 01:15:57,280 --> 01:16:01,760 Speaker 1: abortion from the Kentucky state constitution. That is look very 1486 01:16:01,960 --> 01:16:05,160 Speaker 1: religious conservative state. You tell me you've lived in Kentucky. 1487 01:16:05,960 --> 01:16:10,000 Speaker 1: It's not like it's not a swing state. Rand Paul 1488 01:16:10,439 --> 01:16:13,080 Speaker 1: won by like twenty points. He was declared the winner 1489 01:16:13,280 --> 01:16:15,639 Speaker 1: the moments after the polls closed. Yeah, to have abortion 1490 01:16:15,760 --> 01:16:18,280 Speaker 1: there when like this, I mean, look, if I was 1491 01:16:18,280 --> 01:16:21,400 Speaker 1: a GOP strategist, I might ask some questions, but they won't. 1492 01:16:21,640 --> 01:16:23,880 Speaker 1: You're really not going to hear what I'm saying from 1493 01:16:23,960 --> 01:16:27,720 Speaker 1: anyone even tangentially on the right. I'm already taking a 1494 01:16:27,760 --> 01:16:30,879 Speaker 1: sampling of it. They're all in on the candidate quality 1495 01:16:31,120 --> 01:16:32,920 Speaker 1: Trump stuff, which is fine. I mean, I'm not saying 1496 01:16:32,960 --> 01:16:35,600 Speaker 1: as part of it matter, but i mean, clearly the 1497 01:16:35,680 --> 01:16:38,719 Speaker 1: abortion one. When you're losing in Kentucky and you're losing 1498 01:16:38,720 --> 01:16:43,200 Speaker 1: in Kansas, that's pretty humiliating. Well, remember that New Yorker 1499 01:16:43,240 --> 01:16:46,880 Speaker 1: piece that before election day we dug into that was 1500 01:16:46,920 --> 01:16:49,400 Speaker 1: like the JEP insider case, Well, why they think there's 1501 01:16:49,439 --> 01:16:52,880 Speaker 1: going to be this massive red wave? And their explanation 1502 01:16:53,000 --> 01:16:55,400 Speaker 1: was basically like, we didn't figure out what to do 1503 01:16:55,439 --> 01:16:57,400 Speaker 1: on the abortion. Is you like, we never came up 1504 01:16:57,400 --> 01:17:00,519 Speaker 1: with an answer. We just rode that out and it 1505 01:17:00,600 --> 01:17:04,880 Speaker 1: diminished in importance. Well, obviously it didn't. Obviously that theory 1506 01:17:04,960 --> 01:17:07,479 Speaker 1: of the case did not ultimately work out. So they're 1507 01:17:07,560 --> 01:17:10,840 Speaker 1: sort of, even in their rosiest projections, outright admitting we 1508 01:17:10,880 --> 01:17:12,919 Speaker 1: didn't really figure out how to deal with this issue. 1509 01:17:13,160 --> 01:17:14,960 Speaker 1: And so you know, when you had people that were 1510 01:17:15,240 --> 01:17:17,639 Speaker 1: out there saying, Hey, we're going to do a national 1511 01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:20,599 Speaker 1: abortion band, you are effectively putting this on the ballot 1512 01:17:20,680 --> 01:17:23,280 Speaker 1: in almost every single state. And I do continue to 1513 01:17:23,280 --> 01:17:25,400 Speaker 1: think that the reason why New York was better for 1514 01:17:25,479 --> 01:17:27,960 Speaker 1: Republicans than other places in the countries because people did 1515 01:17:27,960 --> 01:17:30,960 Speaker 1: not feel that it was at risk in that state 1516 01:17:30,960 --> 01:17:32,759 Speaker 1: in particular. I don't really think I could think otherwise, 1517 01:17:32,800 --> 01:17:34,800 Speaker 1: to be honest, That's the only explanation I can really 1518 01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:38,480 Speaker 1: figure out. And Florida too, Hulkel did win, and Republicans 1519 01:17:38,479 --> 01:17:41,400 Speaker 1: thought they had a shot at that governor's mansion in 1520 01:17:41,400 --> 01:17:44,040 Speaker 1: New York. But leez Elden, I mean, he did do 1521 01:17:44,240 --> 01:17:46,759 Speaker 1: a lot better there than Republicans. It's like five points 1522 01:17:46,840 --> 01:17:48,960 Speaker 1: or something like that that he's down. Yeah, so let's 1523 01:17:49,000 --> 01:17:51,479 Speaker 1: go ahead and check that right now for Lee's Elden. 1524 01:17:52,320 --> 01:17:55,519 Speaker 1: So New York is one of those where yeah, fifty 1525 01:17:55,520 --> 01:17:58,519 Speaker 1: two point eight to leees Elden's forty seven, So about four. 1526 01:17:58,600 --> 01:18:01,400 Speaker 1: So I mean she wins comfortably. But that's not Chuck 1527 01:18:01,439 --> 01:18:04,080 Speaker 1: Schumer one by twenty points or something like that. I mean, 1528 01:18:04,640 --> 01:18:06,679 Speaker 1: not in doubt at all. So, all right, a couple 1529 01:18:06,720 --> 01:18:09,720 Speaker 1: more ballot initiatives we have here. Weed was on the 1530 01:18:09,760 --> 01:18:13,400 Speaker 1: ballot in a number of states. Mixed bag here. Arkansas 1531 01:18:13,439 --> 01:18:19,000 Speaker 1: says no to legalizing marijuana, Maryland says yes, Missouri says yes, 1532 01:18:19,520 --> 01:18:24,200 Speaker 1: and North Dakota and South Dakota say no, So wins 1533 01:18:24,320 --> 01:18:30,839 Speaker 1: in Maryland and Missouri interesting, Missouri losses in Arkansas, North Dakota, 1534 01:18:30,920 --> 01:18:32,879 Speaker 1: and South Dakota, so a bit more of a partisan 1535 01:18:32,920 --> 01:18:37,000 Speaker 1: divide there. Yeah, the minimum wage on the ballot in Nevada, 1536 01:18:37,160 --> 01:18:39,800 Speaker 1: that increase in the minimum wage in Nevada, and I 1537 01:18:39,840 --> 01:18:44,599 Speaker 1: think there was another one in Nebraska also voters were 1538 01:18:44,880 --> 01:18:47,519 Speaker 1: voting on increase in the minimum wage. Those both won 1539 01:18:48,000 --> 01:18:50,360 Speaker 1: as well, So there were some. There was one other 1540 01:18:50,400 --> 01:18:52,880 Speaker 1: in Illinois that I found really interesting, which was they 1541 01:18:52,880 --> 01:18:56,640 Speaker 1: were voting to enshrine in the constitution a ban on 1542 01:18:57,479 --> 01:19:01,479 Speaker 1: passing right to work legislations like anti union legislation, and 1543 01:19:01,560 --> 01:19:05,240 Speaker 1: so the pro labor position ultimately passed in Illinois. Now, 1544 01:19:05,360 --> 01:19:07,400 Speaker 1: Illinois is a very democratic state, but that still was 1545 01:19:07,400 --> 01:19:10,240 Speaker 1: one that was interesting to me. I think you're right, Crystal. 1546 01:19:10,280 --> 01:19:13,320 Speaker 1: I mean it's interesting on the ballot initiative front to 1547 01:19:13,400 --> 01:19:16,880 Speaker 1: look at that. And I think Ryan talked about what 1548 01:19:17,000 --> 01:19:21,679 Speaker 1: was in Colorado that was also psychedelics that one came through, 1549 01:19:21,960 --> 01:19:23,800 Speaker 1: and he was saying that that could have had some 1550 01:19:23,840 --> 01:19:26,800 Speaker 1: sort of an impact on the sports betting. One kind 1551 01:19:26,840 --> 01:19:31,679 Speaker 1: of interesting that California voted against in person sports betting 1552 01:19:31,680 --> 01:19:34,960 Speaker 1: at casinos and licensed racetracks. That was one where, if 1553 01:19:34,960 --> 01:19:37,680 Speaker 1: anyone has been following this, sports betting has been like 1554 01:19:37,800 --> 01:19:42,040 Speaker 1: on the rise massively across the country in apps, DraftKings, barstool, 1555 01:19:42,240 --> 01:19:43,960 Speaker 1: all this other stuff. So I don't know why that 1556 01:19:43,960 --> 01:19:45,320 Speaker 1: one stuck out to me, and I was like, huh, 1557 01:19:45,360 --> 01:19:48,160 Speaker 1: that's that's pretty crazy because the other one, which was 1558 01:19:48,240 --> 01:19:51,040 Speaker 1: legalizing online sports betting, also was voted down at like 1559 01:19:51,120 --> 01:19:54,040 Speaker 1: a historic margin. So I don't have a big meta commentary, 1560 01:19:54,680 --> 01:19:57,479 Speaker 1: just interesting. I wouldn't have expected that personally. One more 1561 01:19:57,479 --> 01:20:03,560 Speaker 1: ballot initiative for you, Medicaid expansion as part of Obamacare, 1562 01:20:03,840 --> 01:20:05,960 Speaker 1: was on the ballot in South Dakota and that passed, 1563 01:20:06,080 --> 01:20:08,880 Speaker 1: and more perfect Union actually says that that will extend 1564 01:20:08,880 --> 01:20:12,320 Speaker 1: healthcare coverage to forty two thousand more working class residents 1565 01:20:12,360 --> 01:20:14,760 Speaker 1: of the state of South Dakota. Obviously, Obamacare used to 1566 01:20:14,760 --> 01:20:18,559 Speaker 1: be totally politically polarized. Now, you know, with time, I 1567 01:20:18,560 --> 01:20:22,480 Speaker 1: guess people have moved on from that particular hard polarization 1568 01:20:22,600 --> 01:20:24,280 Speaker 1: and they saw this as a good thing. In Ultimately, 1569 01:20:24,280 --> 01:20:27,000 Speaker 1: you're telling me, gop boomers, even when stripped of the 1570 01:20:27,040 --> 01:20:29,200 Speaker 1: culture war, are like, yeah, I'll take that. I'll take 1571 01:20:29,240 --> 01:20:32,040 Speaker 1: the healthcare. That healthcare, please go ahead and give it, 1572 01:20:32,160 --> 01:20:34,080 Speaker 1: just don't put Obama's name on it. And I'll take 1573 01:20:34,080 --> 01:20:37,559 Speaker 1: those sweet subsidies all day long. You know, one other thing, 1574 01:20:37,720 --> 01:20:40,080 Speaker 1: Saga I want to see at your view on is 1575 01:20:40,640 --> 01:20:44,400 Speaker 1: leading into this election. The big thing that people were 1576 01:20:44,479 --> 01:20:46,959 Speaker 1: looking at was the economic numbers in terms of the fundamentals, 1577 01:20:47,000 --> 01:20:48,280 Speaker 1: and thinking there was going to be a red wave. 1578 01:20:48,320 --> 01:20:52,000 Speaker 1: But another story was crime, and it doesn't seem like 1579 01:20:52,360 --> 01:20:55,320 Speaker 1: that ended up being a really major determining factor in 1580 01:20:55,400 --> 01:20:59,280 Speaker 1: any of these races. In fact, Taniel Daniel and shaneyan 1581 01:20:59,280 --> 01:21:01,160 Speaker 1: over at boltzmag Scene, who really tracks a lot of 1582 01:21:01,160 --> 01:21:04,160 Speaker 1: the criminal justice issues, he found that there were a 1583 01:21:04,240 --> 01:21:09,360 Speaker 1: lot of criminal justice reformers, prosecutors and other elected offices 1584 01:21:09,479 --> 01:21:12,439 Speaker 1: who actually won last night, and so the sort of 1585 01:21:12,520 --> 01:21:15,439 Speaker 1: like crime backlash wave doesn't seem to have been a 1586 01:21:15,479 --> 01:21:18,800 Speaker 1: significant factor here as well. You're right, I don't know 1587 01:21:19,000 --> 01:21:21,080 Speaker 1: how to attribute to that one. Again, I would have 1588 01:21:21,080 --> 01:21:23,080 Speaker 1: told you that it probably mattered more than abortion. Clearly 1589 01:21:23,120 --> 01:21:25,960 Speaker 1: I was completely wrong about that one. So I have honestly, 1590 01:21:26,080 --> 01:21:28,280 Speaker 1: I think I just don't know. I do not know 1591 01:21:28,560 --> 01:21:31,519 Speaker 1: why it didn't matter, why GOP messaging on it didn't 1592 01:21:31,560 --> 01:21:33,479 Speaker 1: hit in the same way that it did in twenty twenty. 1593 01:21:34,360 --> 01:21:36,280 Speaker 1: Whether some of the fights that we have seen that 1594 01:21:36,320 --> 01:21:39,639 Speaker 1: were trending more in the Republican direction on those debates 1595 01:21:39,680 --> 01:21:42,720 Speaker 1: and more didn't materialize. It simply as a question that 1596 01:21:43,120 --> 01:21:46,000 Speaker 1: I genuinely do not know the answer to. It could 1597 01:21:46,000 --> 01:21:48,240 Speaker 1: be they rid Cote tails, you know, and maybe it 1598 01:21:48,320 --> 01:21:51,200 Speaker 1: happens it matters in one place and not in another. 1599 01:21:51,560 --> 01:21:55,559 Speaker 1: I thought it would be incredibly impactful in Pennsylvania given 1600 01:21:55,600 --> 01:21:57,439 Speaker 1: you know, listen, I have people who I know people 1601 01:21:57,439 --> 01:21:59,160 Speaker 1: who live in Philly and like, Philly is going down 1602 01:21:59,160 --> 01:22:02,880 Speaker 1: the tubes quickly. But hey, I mean he actually won. Yeah. Question, 1603 01:22:03,120 --> 01:22:05,080 Speaker 1: So that's one of those things where how much do 1604 01:22:05,160 --> 01:22:07,000 Speaker 1: they attribute? How much of it is local? That's the 1605 01:22:07,000 --> 01:22:08,800 Speaker 1: other question, right, you know, is it going to even matter? 1606 01:22:08,920 --> 01:22:11,000 Speaker 1: Will it matter next year in the district attorney? Maybe 1607 01:22:11,320 --> 01:22:14,479 Speaker 1: mayor race? Those are other questions. So he points to 1608 01:22:14,520 --> 01:22:17,479 Speaker 1: one race in particular that's worth noting, I think, just 1609 01:22:17,520 --> 01:22:20,600 Speaker 1: as to kind of bolster the point. So in Minneapolis, 1610 01:22:20,600 --> 01:22:22,719 Speaker 1: which of course is the site of George Floyd's murder 1611 01:22:22,760 --> 01:22:26,320 Speaker 1: and lots of riots in the wake of his death, 1612 01:22:26,720 --> 01:22:31,719 Speaker 1: reformers actually won a big victory there in Minneapolis, career 1613 01:22:31,760 --> 01:22:34,240 Speaker 1: public defender who clashed with the outgoing prosecutor for years 1614 01:22:34,280 --> 01:22:37,400 Speaker 1: prevailed in the prosecutor election. She beat a tough on 1615 01:22:37,479 --> 01:22:40,280 Speaker 1: crime opponent by ten plus points. So even in a 1616 01:22:40,320 --> 01:22:42,479 Speaker 1: place that's been a really hot spot, there's a lot 1617 01:22:42,520 --> 01:22:45,040 Speaker 1: of conversation about, you know, crime going up in the 1618 01:22:45,080 --> 01:22:48,160 Speaker 1: wake of George Floyd's murder and the police reform conversation, 1619 01:22:48,200 --> 01:22:51,919 Speaker 1: all of that stuff. So even in Minneapolis, actually reformers 1620 01:22:51,960 --> 01:22:54,880 Speaker 1: able to score a victory. So this is another thing 1621 01:22:54,960 --> 01:22:58,320 Speaker 1: that is just polar opposite of what really any of 1622 01:22:58,439 --> 01:23:02,360 Speaker 1: us were predicting. Godfower election day, nobody knew listening, you know, 1623 01:23:02,400 --> 01:23:05,280 Speaker 1: it was a defeat for defund the police in twenty twenty. Today. 1624 01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:07,400 Speaker 1: I mean, here's the other question. Maybe defund has just 1625 01:23:07,720 --> 01:23:09,439 Speaker 1: kind of been a race from the memory. Maybe things 1626 01:23:09,439 --> 01:23:12,720 Speaker 1: are being talked about more concerned. Again, this is pure speculation. Yeah, 1627 01:23:12,720 --> 01:23:15,960 Speaker 1: I don't know. I can't tell you why it didn't matter. Again, 1628 01:23:16,000 --> 01:23:18,160 Speaker 1: my major guess is that abortion just mattered a hell 1629 01:23:18,160 --> 01:23:19,719 Speaker 1: of a lot more than a lot of people think, 1630 01:23:19,920 --> 01:23:22,920 Speaker 1: and that just trumped almost everything, even to the point 1631 01:23:23,120 --> 01:23:26,280 Speaker 1: of inflation. Not something I ever would have thought possible, 1632 01:23:26,320 --> 01:23:32,519 Speaker 1: and yet seems eminently exactly what happened inside all right, 1633 01:23:32,640 --> 01:23:36,360 Speaker 1: So lastly, okay, what does all of this mean for 1634 01:23:36,400 --> 01:23:38,960 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, which is now upon us. We have 1635 01:23:39,120 --> 01:23:42,920 Speaker 1: Donald Trump set to announce next week. Next week, we 1636 01:23:42,960 --> 01:23:45,840 Speaker 1: have Ron DeSantis hanging out there in Florida, looking very 1637 01:23:45,840 --> 01:23:48,240 Speaker 1: good after last night. We have Joe Biden on the 1638 01:23:48,240 --> 01:23:52,720 Speaker 1: Democratic side, looking very way stronger than he was looking 1639 01:23:52,720 --> 01:23:54,479 Speaker 1: before last Why don't we start with Biden? So, as 1640 01:23:54,560 --> 01:23:59,759 Speaker 1: said already, Biden this most extraordinary performance for sitting president 1641 01:24:00,040 --> 01:24:04,400 Speaker 1: in modern American history for midterm, especially facing the political 1642 01:24:04,400 --> 01:24:07,800 Speaker 1: wins that he did at this point, Basically regardless of 1643 01:24:07,880 --> 01:24:11,440 Speaker 1: what happens, given the whole meta narrative, I think easily 1644 01:24:11,560 --> 01:24:14,520 Speaker 1: he now has shored up his position as the presumptive 1645 01:24:14,760 --> 01:24:20,400 Speaker 1: Democratic nominee if he's alive. It's happening as people the 1646 01:24:20,400 --> 01:24:22,599 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania just showed us they don't care if you can 1647 01:24:22,640 --> 01:24:25,200 Speaker 1: speak or not, whether you're going to represent them. They 1648 01:24:25,240 --> 01:24:27,320 Speaker 1: will actually vote for you. Even in a larger margin. 1649 01:24:27,560 --> 01:24:29,719 Speaker 1: His approval rating was not a drag on the party, 1650 01:24:29,840 --> 01:24:32,600 Speaker 1: so he can show definitively that he also and I 1651 01:24:32,600 --> 01:24:34,840 Speaker 1: think this is very much to his credit. If I'm him, 1652 01:24:34,840 --> 01:24:37,000 Speaker 1: I'm singing about abortion until the cows come home, all 1653 01:24:37,000 --> 01:24:39,719 Speaker 1: the way till twenty twenty four, the same thing. Why 1654 01:24:39,800 --> 01:24:42,400 Speaker 1: we need to Let's say they keep the Senate and 1655 01:24:42,439 --> 01:24:44,000 Speaker 1: not the House. They're like, well, we got to take 1656 01:24:44,000 --> 01:24:45,880 Speaker 1: back the House. We'll actually do it, guys, if you 1657 01:24:45,880 --> 01:24:48,479 Speaker 1: actually give us the vote. So that's something they can continue, 1658 01:24:48,479 --> 01:24:50,479 Speaker 1: if anything, is probably their benefit if they don't keep 1659 01:24:50,520 --> 01:24:53,559 Speaker 1: the House for that purpose. So I think Joe Biden 1660 01:24:53,680 --> 01:24:55,600 Speaker 1: has shored up his position, and if you were to 1661 01:24:55,600 --> 01:24:58,479 Speaker 1: ask me today him versus Trump, I think it's very 1662 01:24:58,479 --> 01:25:01,680 Speaker 1: clear where things stand right now for the clippers who 1663 01:25:01,720 --> 01:25:04,400 Speaker 1: are out there. If the election were today, it is 1664 01:25:04,439 --> 01:25:07,400 Speaker 1: clear to me that Joe Biden would probably win reelection, 1665 01:25:07,560 --> 01:25:09,840 Speaker 1: which is I would not in the position forty eight 1666 01:25:09,880 --> 01:25:11,160 Speaker 1: hours ago. I would have told you that Trump is 1667 01:25:11,160 --> 01:25:12,960 Speaker 1: going to clean up and he would easily be president 1668 01:25:13,120 --> 01:25:15,800 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. So a stunning victory for Joe 1669 01:25:15,840 --> 01:25:17,679 Speaker 1: Biden in almost every sense of the word. I really 1670 01:25:17,880 --> 01:25:21,640 Speaker 1: thinking in the terms of history, major turning point for him. 1671 01:25:21,720 --> 01:25:26,519 Speaker 1: I major completely agree, and I mean most critically, he 1672 01:25:26,560 --> 01:25:30,120 Speaker 1: has really shored up his position as the next nominee. 1673 01:25:30,120 --> 01:25:33,160 Speaker 1: I mean, it's easy to instantly memory hold this stuff. 1674 01:25:33,479 --> 01:25:38,400 Speaker 1: But you had major party figures who were saying openly 1675 01:25:38,800 --> 01:25:40,920 Speaker 1: we need to move on from this guy. Yes, during 1676 01:25:40,960 --> 01:25:43,840 Speaker 1: their primaries, I mean even leading up to the Tim 1677 01:25:43,920 --> 01:25:46,680 Speaker 1: Ryan in Ohio said we need a generational change, we 1678 01:25:46,720 --> 01:25:49,320 Speaker 1: need to move on from Joe Biden. You ain't going 1679 01:25:49,400 --> 01:25:52,760 Speaker 1: to hear that anymore. They need to be engages the 1680 01:25:52,880 --> 01:25:56,000 Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom's all those people in the world, they're going 1681 01:25:56,080 --> 01:25:59,840 Speaker 1: to close up shop until after the Biden era, because yeah, 1682 01:25:59,880 --> 01:26:03,440 Speaker 1: I think he The big thing that he always delivered 1683 01:26:03,600 --> 01:26:06,760 Speaker 1: brought to the table for the Democratic base that they 1684 01:26:06,760 --> 01:26:09,720 Speaker 1: were convinced of is this is the electable guy. And 1685 01:26:09,720 --> 01:26:12,400 Speaker 1: if we want to bulwark against Trump and trump Ism 1686 01:26:12,439 --> 01:26:16,000 Speaker 1: and the Republican Party, listen, we may have issues the like, 1687 01:26:16,120 --> 01:26:18,080 Speaker 1: you know, we may be getting up there in years, 1688 01:26:18,120 --> 01:26:21,040 Speaker 1: but this guy could actually beat Trump. That was the 1689 01:26:21,080 --> 01:26:23,640 Speaker 1: case that they bought into in twenty twenty. There was 1690 01:26:23,680 --> 01:26:26,880 Speaker 1: a real risk for him that if he took an 1691 01:26:26,920 --> 01:26:31,240 Speaker 1: Obama level slacking in the midterms, that case no longer 1692 01:26:31,280 --> 01:26:33,680 Speaker 1: holds up, and then it might be off to the 1693 01:26:33,760 --> 01:26:38,519 Speaker 1: race's very different picture. But since he again delivers on 1694 01:26:38,760 --> 01:26:43,160 Speaker 1: the goods electorally, you know, best performance for party in 1695 01:26:43,240 --> 01:26:45,400 Speaker 1: power since you know the rally around the Flag two 1696 01:26:45,400 --> 01:26:49,080 Speaker 1: thousand and two. Shocking really just I mean it is shocking, 1697 01:26:49,320 --> 01:26:53,439 Speaker 1: especially especially given the bad economy, the right chrack, all 1698 01:26:53,479 --> 01:26:55,920 Speaker 1: of those things going against him, and you turn in 1699 01:26:56,000 --> 01:26:58,839 Speaker 1: this performance. Yeah, he's in great shape with the Democratic 1700 01:26:58,880 --> 01:27:01,000 Speaker 1: base and he's in very strong shape for Wak'll tell 1701 01:27:01,000 --> 01:27:02,640 Speaker 1: you this. If the Fed stops cutting rates and we 1702 01:27:02,640 --> 01:27:04,960 Speaker 1: see a booming stock market and the job the job 1703 01:27:04,960 --> 01:27:07,439 Speaker 1: market stays where it is in twenty twenty three, and 1704 01:27:07,720 --> 01:27:09,920 Speaker 1: let's say that he can get a negotiated settlement in 1705 01:27:10,000 --> 01:27:12,559 Speaker 1: Ukraine and gas goes down by fifty cents a gallon, 1706 01:27:12,560 --> 01:27:15,640 Speaker 1: He's cruis into reelection. There's no question about it, especially 1707 01:27:15,800 --> 01:27:19,599 Speaker 1: with a portion there. You know, by the way, there's 1708 01:27:19,880 --> 01:27:21,720 Speaker 1: put the counter on that. Let's say that Ukraine goes 1709 01:27:21,760 --> 01:27:24,280 Speaker 1: to shit and we have gas goes up to five, 1710 01:27:24,600 --> 01:27:28,639 Speaker 1: that bottom drops out on their on the unemployment rate 1711 01:27:28,960 --> 01:27:32,200 Speaker 1: and it goes to ten as what's his name, uh 1712 01:27:32,520 --> 01:27:34,600 Speaker 1: my got him, Larry Summers. Larry Summers wants it to 1713 01:27:34,640 --> 01:27:37,519 Speaker 1: go to well, then yeah, we're talking about a very 1714 01:27:37,520 --> 01:27:39,720 Speaker 1: different I don't know it could go all the way. 1715 01:27:39,760 --> 01:27:41,400 Speaker 1: There's a lot of variants in our politics right now, 1716 01:27:41,800 --> 01:27:43,800 Speaker 1: right now, you know, in that scenario, I could easily 1717 01:27:43,840 --> 01:27:46,680 Speaker 1: see a scenario where he actually does win. So now 1718 01:27:46,720 --> 01:27:50,120 Speaker 1: let's move on to Trump. Horrific night for Donald Trump. 1719 01:27:50,400 --> 01:27:56,240 Speaker 1: His candidates all massively underperformed. But beyond his actual picks, 1720 01:27:56,600 --> 01:28:00,360 Speaker 1: the actual the true weakness of Stop the Steal was 1721 01:28:00,400 --> 01:28:03,680 Speaker 1: really revealed. Yes, Doug Mastriano, as I said, he was 1722 01:28:03,720 --> 01:28:06,240 Speaker 1: picked by the base people. Trump didn't endorse him until 1723 01:28:06,400 --> 01:28:09,240 Speaker 1: the last minute. And that's the shit that Trump unleashed. 1724 01:28:09,520 --> 01:28:12,800 Speaker 1: Kerry Lake barely coming across Blake Masters also having to 1725 01:28:12,840 --> 01:28:15,880 Speaker 1: kiss Trump's ass in order to win. JD only winning 1726 01:28:15,960 --> 01:28:18,040 Speaker 1: by six points whenever you know, I mean, look, the 1727 01:28:18,040 --> 01:28:19,599 Speaker 1: case for JD was he was the guy who could 1728 01:28:19,600 --> 01:28:22,920 Speaker 1: win Opio by fourteen points. Trump won Ohio by eight points. 1729 01:28:22,960 --> 01:28:28,960 Speaker 1: And then when you consider herschel Walker, his candidates of 1730 01:28:29,040 --> 01:28:32,760 Speaker 1: New Hampshire, Bulldock right right, all those people, all of 1731 01:28:32,800 --> 01:28:36,680 Speaker 1: the election deniers losing in every gubernatorial race, all to 1732 01:28:36,680 --> 01:28:40,559 Speaker 1: stop the Steelers losing who the National Democrats backed. That's 1733 01:28:40,600 --> 01:28:44,639 Speaker 1: a massive reprudiation of the issue that matters most to Trump, 1734 01:28:45,120 --> 01:28:48,000 Speaker 1: most to the GOP base, but least to the overall 1735 01:28:48,280 --> 01:28:52,519 Speaker 1: national electorate. I think that's very, very important for Trump's 1736 01:28:52,520 --> 01:28:55,559 Speaker 1: own personal strength. This is a moment of immense crisis 1737 01:28:55,560 --> 01:28:58,559 Speaker 1: for him. In my opinion, he has to announce as 1738 01:28:58,600 --> 01:29:02,160 Speaker 1: soon as humanly possible, even though it is humiliating to 1739 01:29:02,160 --> 01:29:05,160 Speaker 1: have the losses. And it is because he cannot allow 1740 01:29:05,240 --> 01:29:08,360 Speaker 1: speculation of the Ron DeSantis and the Brian Kemps all 1741 01:29:08,360 --> 01:29:11,200 Speaker 1: of the world. He needs to cut it in his tracks. 1742 01:29:11,200 --> 01:29:12,920 Speaker 1: I'm talking. I don't want this happen. I'm telling you 1743 01:29:13,040 --> 01:29:14,479 Speaker 1: this is what I think he should do in his 1744 01:29:14,520 --> 01:29:18,959 Speaker 1: own self interest. Announce tomorrow, Blame it on Mitch McConnell, 1745 01:29:19,400 --> 01:29:22,040 Speaker 1: make up some fake reason he can go so he 1746 01:29:22,040 --> 01:29:25,519 Speaker 1: can always blame. Stop the steel on Arizona and all that, 1747 01:29:25,760 --> 01:29:29,200 Speaker 1: shore up the GOP base. Force Ron DeSantis to traf 1748 01:29:29,280 --> 01:29:32,599 Speaker 1: to try and challenge him. DeSantis would have to make 1749 01:29:32,720 --> 01:29:36,320 Speaker 1: a negative case against Trump. And again, that negative case, 1750 01:29:36,360 --> 01:29:38,600 Speaker 1: in my opinion, is just simply not one which is 1751 01:29:38,600 --> 01:29:40,840 Speaker 1: going to land with a GOP base. I don't see 1752 01:29:40,840 --> 01:29:43,280 Speaker 1: any evidence they care about electability. I think they love 1753 01:29:43,320 --> 01:29:45,759 Speaker 1: the fun, They love the ride, they love the tweets, 1754 01:29:45,880 --> 01:29:48,320 Speaker 1: they love pissing off the media. DeSantis simply does not 1755 01:29:48,360 --> 01:29:50,320 Speaker 1: have that in his repertoire. He's good at it, but 1756 01:29:50,360 --> 01:29:53,080 Speaker 1: he's not as good at it as Trump. So to me, 1757 01:29:53,479 --> 01:29:57,000 Speaker 1: the DeSantis dream, while it exists for GOP elites who 1758 01:29:57,040 --> 01:29:59,759 Speaker 1: really care about power, about getting stuff done, will never 1759 01:29:59,840 --> 01:30:02,080 Speaker 1: be able to reconcile with Trump. And this is the 1760 01:30:02,120 --> 01:30:04,320 Speaker 1: other thing about Trump. He wouldn't even concede the twenty 1761 01:30:04,360 --> 01:30:07,000 Speaker 1: twenty election if he you know, in some world where 1762 01:30:07,280 --> 01:30:09,559 Speaker 1: let's say DeSantis beats him in a narrow primary, which 1763 01:30:09,560 --> 01:30:11,479 Speaker 1: I don't even think is possible. You think he's just 1764 01:30:11,520 --> 01:30:13,120 Speaker 1: not going to run, or he's not gonna tell his 1765 01:30:13,200 --> 01:30:15,320 Speaker 1: people not to come home. Like this is the gamble 1766 01:30:15,360 --> 01:30:18,160 Speaker 1: with Trump, Like if he's not at the top, it's chaos. 1767 01:30:18,200 --> 01:30:20,800 Speaker 1: He'll try to light the whole thing on fire. He's 1768 01:30:20,960 --> 01:30:24,799 Speaker 1: celebrating the Republican loss that Colorado lost, like he doesn't care, 1769 01:30:26,120 --> 01:30:31,280 Speaker 1: only cares about himself. So the Donald albatross is around 1770 01:30:31,320 --> 01:30:33,880 Speaker 1: their neck in a I don't honestly, it's one of 1771 01:30:33,920 --> 01:30:35,880 Speaker 1: the It's like the Chinese finger trapped thing or whatever. 1772 01:30:36,120 --> 01:30:39,160 Speaker 1: There's no way out. It's you you're in, uh is. 1773 01:30:39,560 --> 01:30:43,320 Speaker 1: It is nearly impossible to untangle yourself from that situation, 1774 01:30:43,360 --> 01:30:45,720 Speaker 1: and then finally let me talk about Desantas. DeSantis has 1775 01:30:45,760 --> 01:30:50,080 Speaker 1: a great case to make amongst the gop elites on electability. Again, 1776 01:30:50,479 --> 01:30:52,960 Speaker 1: I don't see that case being translated to the base, 1777 01:30:53,240 --> 01:30:55,280 Speaker 1: and I don't want to take away from this being 1778 01:30:55,280 --> 01:30:57,120 Speaker 1: one of the most popular governors in the United States 1779 01:30:57,120 --> 01:30:59,960 Speaker 1: while being one national polarizing figure and winning a form 1780 01:31:00,120 --> 01:31:02,479 Speaker 1: really a state that you barely won by point five 1781 01:31:02,479 --> 01:31:05,120 Speaker 1: percent of the vote twenty four years later winning it 1782 01:31:05,160 --> 01:31:08,719 Speaker 1: by twenty points That is astounding in a non Trump environment. 1783 01:31:08,960 --> 01:31:12,080 Speaker 1: You are the presumptive Republican nominee, and I think he 1784 01:31:12,080 --> 01:31:14,439 Speaker 1: would give Joe Biden a run for his money. But 1785 01:31:14,880 --> 01:31:17,640 Speaker 1: I don't see a path to him for that possibility 1786 01:31:17,640 --> 01:31:21,599 Speaker 1: outside of Trump literally dying or Trump bowing out, neither 1787 01:31:21,720 --> 01:31:24,120 Speaker 1: of which Trump looks healthier to me. I don't know 1788 01:31:24,200 --> 01:31:26,040 Speaker 1: by thinking, yeah, it looks like he lost weight. To 1789 01:31:26,120 --> 01:31:28,439 Speaker 1: be honest, yeah, actually he does. Out of the White House, 1790 01:31:28,439 --> 01:31:31,960 Speaker 1: probably healthier for him. I mean, I I co sign 1791 01:31:32,040 --> 01:31:35,000 Speaker 1: everything you just said there. I will say I feel 1792 01:31:35,040 --> 01:31:37,479 Speaker 1: a little less confident in that case than I did 1793 01:31:37,520 --> 01:31:41,400 Speaker 1: before these election results that DeSantis doesn't have a shot 1794 01:31:41,640 --> 01:31:44,040 Speaker 1: in a primary against Trump, because I mean it is 1795 01:31:44,120 --> 01:31:46,400 Speaker 1: very compelling. Like you look at the story of last night, 1796 01:31:46,439 --> 01:31:49,400 Speaker 1: You're like, there was one state where Republicans basically did well, 1797 01:31:49,479 --> 01:31:53,559 Speaker 1: it's Florida. Every one of the Trump candidates was basically 1798 01:31:53,640 --> 01:31:57,160 Speaker 1: a total dog. The direction of the party under him 1799 01:31:57,560 --> 01:31:59,880 Speaker 1: was you know, it wasn't just the individual candidates. That's 1800 01:31:59,840 --> 01:32:02,040 Speaker 1: what you have these you know, losses at the house level, 1801 01:32:02,080 --> 01:32:05,559 Speaker 1: a possibility of Democratic pickup is it wasn't just the 1802 01:32:05,640 --> 01:32:09,280 Speaker 1: individual candidates. It really has put a stench on the 1803 01:32:09,520 --> 01:32:14,599 Speaker 1: entire party. That's as clear as it could possibly be. Right. So, 1804 01:32:14,960 --> 01:32:18,280 Speaker 1: I mean, DeSantis comes out of this with the strongest 1805 01:32:18,640 --> 01:32:22,960 Speaker 1: hand he possibly could have come out of last night's 1806 01:32:22,960 --> 01:32:27,120 Speaker 1: election results. Now, ultimately, I agree with you that I think, 1807 01:32:27,280 --> 01:32:29,599 Speaker 1: you know, those aren't the things, ultimately that the base 1808 01:32:29,800 --> 01:32:33,760 Speaker 1: is really concerned about. Those aren't the determining factors of Okay, 1809 01:32:33,840 --> 01:32:36,080 Speaker 1: I'm gonna you know, and analyze this is better for 1810 01:32:36,120 --> 01:32:38,520 Speaker 1: the future of the Republican Party and you're more electicable 1811 01:32:38,560 --> 01:32:42,040 Speaker 1: against Joe Biden or whatever. So I agree with you 1812 01:32:42,080 --> 01:32:44,400 Speaker 1: that I still think it's an uphill climb for DeSantis, 1813 01:32:44,400 --> 01:32:47,439 Speaker 1: even though he really did have the best possible night 1814 01:32:47,840 --> 01:32:51,759 Speaker 1: that he could have had. Now, Okay, Trump's gonna announce 1815 01:32:52,120 --> 01:32:55,840 Speaker 1: very soon. I think there's a rallying around him. He'll 1816 01:32:55,840 --> 01:32:58,639 Speaker 1: have his narrative. I think blaming Mitch McConnell is probably 1817 01:32:58,680 --> 01:33:01,000 Speaker 1: a very savvy thing, exact savvy way for him to 1818 01:33:01,080 --> 01:33:03,479 Speaker 1: ultimately go. He already hates him, he's already trashing him 1819 01:33:03,520 --> 01:33:05,400 Speaker 1: up publicly, so he can do that, Blame all the 1820 01:33:05,439 --> 01:33:09,240 Speaker 1: losses on McConnell, Cherry Pick like Jdie Vance or Kerry 1821 01:33:09,320 --> 01:33:11,960 Speaker 1: Lake or whoever put JD up there on the stage 1822 01:33:11,960 --> 01:33:13,719 Speaker 1: and be like, look, this guy wouldn't be here without 1823 01:33:13,760 --> 01:33:15,519 Speaker 1: me and the two of us. All of this. It 1824 01:33:15,560 --> 01:33:17,519 Speaker 1: was a great night for Donald Trump. I mean, listen, 1825 01:33:17,560 --> 01:33:20,000 Speaker 1: I've seen the guy in action before. Again, I interviewed 1826 01:33:20,040 --> 01:33:21,920 Speaker 1: him right after twenty eighteen when he got his ass 1827 01:33:22,000 --> 01:33:26,200 Speaker 1: kicked in the house. He reality is no barrier for him, exactly. 1828 01:33:26,280 --> 01:33:29,439 Speaker 1: I mean, I saw it his own universe, and he 1829 01:33:29,479 --> 01:33:32,200 Speaker 1: creates his own reality. And for the people that are 1830 01:33:32,240 --> 01:33:34,920 Speaker 1: existing in that universe, like, I see no sign that 1831 01:33:34,960 --> 01:33:38,240 Speaker 1: they're ready to break out of the Trump created reality. 1832 01:33:39,280 --> 01:33:41,720 Speaker 1: He's going to get indicted very likely. I think it's 1833 01:33:41,760 --> 01:33:44,680 Speaker 1: more likely than not. You agree with that, I think 1834 01:33:44,800 --> 01:33:47,439 Speaker 1: that's only going to be good for him ultimately with 1835 01:33:47,520 --> 01:33:51,400 Speaker 1: the Republican base again. Now the general election totally different deal. 1836 01:33:51,560 --> 01:33:56,719 Speaker 1: I think he is incredibly unpopular. I saw the exit 1837 01:33:56,760 --> 01:34:01,200 Speaker 1: polls from last night had his unfavorable at like sixty 1838 01:34:01,320 --> 01:34:04,800 Speaker 1: three percent, you know, way worse than where Joe Biden is. 1839 01:34:04,840 --> 01:34:07,160 Speaker 1: I mean, this man is not someone that the American 1840 01:34:07,200 --> 01:34:09,639 Speaker 1: people buy in large one. That doesn't mean that it's 1841 01:34:09,640 --> 01:34:12,400 Speaker 1: not with the Republican base once next time around. Now, 1842 01:34:12,479 --> 01:34:14,160 Speaker 1: I admit Kyle and I have been having this fight. 1843 01:34:14,240 --> 01:34:17,040 Speaker 1: If he does end up actually in prison, it does 1844 01:34:17,120 --> 01:34:20,240 Speaker 1: get a little bit more complicated. But even in that scenario, 1845 01:34:20,439 --> 01:34:22,120 Speaker 1: I don't totally put it out of the realm of 1846 01:34:22,160 --> 01:34:25,840 Speaker 1: possibility that he wins. With the Republican nomination and prison, 1847 01:34:25,880 --> 01:34:28,200 Speaker 1: cell I totally agree. I think they're all in with Trump. 1848 01:34:28,240 --> 01:34:30,040 Speaker 1: I think they love Trump. His favorability is an all 1849 01:34:30,040 --> 01:34:32,479 Speaker 1: time high with all of them. It's about his general 1850 01:34:32,560 --> 01:34:35,080 Speaker 1: election appeal and all of that. But you know, at 1851 01:34:35,080 --> 01:34:37,639 Speaker 1: this point, I've prognosticated on Trump every which way I'm 1852 01:34:37,640 --> 01:34:40,599 Speaker 1: gonna be. I don't know, right, do not people can surprise. 1853 01:34:40,800 --> 01:34:43,679 Speaker 1: What I do know is that this complicates the picture, 1854 01:34:44,000 --> 01:34:48,200 Speaker 1: especially at an elite level. That being said, I watched 1855 01:34:48,240 --> 01:34:52,439 Speaker 1: many people ditch him during Access Hollywood. The ones who's 1856 01:34:52,400 --> 01:34:55,080 Speaker 1: stuck with him. You know, ultimately they were proven correct. 1857 01:34:55,360 --> 01:34:57,000 Speaker 1: I think he's going to see this as a major 1858 01:34:57,040 --> 01:35:00,000 Speaker 1: test of loyalty. I think, actually, you know what's interest 1859 01:35:00,000 --> 01:35:01,760 Speaker 1: see to me's a lot of GOP commentators are in 1860 01:35:01,840 --> 01:35:04,200 Speaker 1: some real trouble here. So if you have and I'm 1861 01:35:04,200 --> 01:35:06,120 Speaker 1: just talking at a media level, if you've cultivated a 1862 01:35:06,160 --> 01:35:09,320 Speaker 1: full stop to steal audience and you have election results 1863 01:35:09,320 --> 01:35:11,400 Speaker 1: like this, that's a that's a tough one to square 1864 01:35:11,640 --> 01:35:14,320 Speaker 1: about the Donald being the greatest figure in American politics 1865 01:35:14,400 --> 01:35:17,599 Speaker 1: and then being historically repudiated on a national level. I'm 1866 01:35:17,600 --> 01:35:20,400 Speaker 1: sure the cope will come at some point, but yeah, 1867 01:35:20,479 --> 01:35:22,680 Speaker 1: that's gonna be a fun one, I think. Yeah, to 1868 01:35:22,720 --> 01:35:25,840 Speaker 1: watch that happen. Yeah, very very true. I mean, if 1869 01:35:25,880 --> 01:35:28,840 Speaker 1: you are, like clearly Republican elites want to be done 1870 01:35:28,840 --> 01:35:31,920 Speaker 1: with this guy. They see very clearly of course there's 1871 01:35:31,960 --> 01:35:34,280 Speaker 1: a disaster for them and for their ambitions of power. 1872 01:35:34,360 --> 01:35:36,599 Speaker 1: Like there's just no doubt about it at this point. 1873 01:35:37,479 --> 01:35:40,439 Speaker 1: What could you do to dislodge him from the party. 1874 01:35:40,560 --> 01:35:43,240 Speaker 1: There's nothing. I mean, look, they didn't impeach him. Honestly, 1875 01:35:43,240 --> 01:35:47,000 Speaker 1: there's nothing. I don't think it's possible. You're in and 1876 01:35:47,000 --> 01:35:50,559 Speaker 1: that's just how Yeah. I continue to think they maybe 1877 01:35:51,160 --> 01:35:54,240 Speaker 1: had a moment right after January sixth, right if Mitch 1878 01:35:54,280 --> 01:35:58,040 Speaker 1: McConnell had gone in hard and you really had like 1879 01:35:58,080 --> 01:36:01,240 Speaker 1: a circling of the wagons, and you really had a concerted, 1880 01:36:01,640 --> 01:36:04,280 Speaker 1: coordinated effort, like we got to cut this guy out 1881 01:36:04,360 --> 01:36:08,240 Speaker 1: like a cancer right now, maybe then you could have 1882 01:36:08,320 --> 01:36:10,360 Speaker 1: done it, because that was such a like shock to 1883 01:36:10,600 --> 01:36:15,080 Speaker 1: the body politic. But I continue to think when they 1884 01:36:15,120 --> 01:36:19,160 Speaker 1: missed that little moment and that little opening, they're you know, 1885 01:36:19,280 --> 01:36:22,200 Speaker 1: in very difficult position now to be able to pull 1886 01:36:22,200 --> 01:36:24,280 Speaker 1: back from where they've taken, where they've allowed the party 1887 01:36:24,320 --> 01:36:26,720 Speaker 1: to go. Right. Yeah, I think it's a it's a 1888 01:36:26,760 --> 01:36:30,519 Speaker 1: big takeaway. It'll be it'll be fun to watch it 1889 01:36:30,560 --> 01:36:33,879 Speaker 1: all play out. So yes, final interest thing from us, Crystal, 1890 01:36:34,439 --> 01:36:36,479 Speaker 1: I again just want to say thank you all so 1891 01:36:36,560 --> 01:36:39,439 Speaker 1: much to the premium subs who enabled all of this 1892 01:36:39,479 --> 01:36:42,400 Speaker 1: to be possible. We're talking this morning about upgrades to 1893 01:36:42,400 --> 01:36:44,760 Speaker 1: the studio, about different ways that we can gear up 1894 01:36:44,800 --> 01:36:47,200 Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four. If you believe in our mission, 1895 01:36:47,240 --> 01:36:49,280 Speaker 1: if you like what we're all about. The easiest thing 1896 01:36:49,280 --> 01:36:51,040 Speaker 1: that you can do to help us out. We've got 1897 01:36:51,080 --> 01:36:54,519 Speaker 1: the ten percent off right now, annual subscription for going 1898 01:36:54,560 --> 01:36:56,160 Speaker 1: on let's say forty eight hours. Let's cap it at 1899 01:36:56,200 --> 01:36:59,400 Speaker 1: forty eight hours. It's in the description of this video. 1900 01:36:59,520 --> 01:37:02,880 Speaker 1: It's in the chat lifetime members as well. You guys, 1901 01:37:03,160 --> 01:37:04,960 Speaker 1: You guys are the ones who backed us in the beginning, 1902 01:37:05,240 --> 01:37:07,559 Speaker 1: and for are the ones who have been coming in 1903 01:37:07,560 --> 01:37:09,960 Speaker 1: in the last several hours, and others like you guys 1904 01:37:09,960 --> 01:37:11,679 Speaker 1: are the ones who are enabling that we can truly 1905 01:37:11,720 --> 01:37:16,439 Speaker 1: build and something impressive for the twenty twenty four election, 1906 01:37:16,520 --> 01:37:19,360 Speaker 1: because what I'm watching here is that clearly you know, 1907 01:37:19,520 --> 01:37:21,720 Speaker 1: the whole country is up for grabs. It's going to 1908 01:37:21,800 --> 01:37:24,240 Speaker 1: take a lot for all of us together to try 1909 01:37:24,240 --> 01:37:26,160 Speaker 1: and figure it all out. So yeah, I'm very thankful 1910 01:37:26,200 --> 01:37:28,280 Speaker 1: to be here with you, to have counterpoints, to have 1911 01:37:28,320 --> 01:37:30,799 Speaker 1: Marshall and Kyle on deck, to have this amazing studio, 1912 01:37:31,240 --> 01:37:33,760 Speaker 1: to have our crew. You enable everything for us. So 1913 01:37:33,800 --> 01:37:36,360 Speaker 1: I can't thank you enough from the bottom of our hearts. 1914 01:37:36,360 --> 01:37:38,240 Speaker 1: And if you can't help us out, link us down 1915 01:37:38,240 --> 01:37:40,839 Speaker 1: in the description. Yeah, it's right there. I mean, guys, 1916 01:37:41,280 --> 01:37:44,200 Speaker 1: we've been you know, gear enough for the midterms. You know, 1917 01:37:44,240 --> 01:37:46,040 Speaker 1: I feel really good about what we were able to 1918 01:37:46,040 --> 01:37:48,840 Speaker 1: do last night, and you know, the response seemed to 1919 01:37:48,880 --> 01:37:51,400 Speaker 1: be really positive in terms of how you guys, what 1920 01:37:51,439 --> 01:37:54,120 Speaker 1: you guys thought of the stream. And you know, now 1921 01:37:54,160 --> 01:37:56,240 Speaker 1: we got to gear up for twenty twenty four because 1922 01:37:56,280 --> 01:38:00,400 Speaker 1: it is on and I sort of feel like we 1923 01:38:00,400 --> 01:38:03,519 Speaker 1: were starting to wrap our heads around some new rules 1924 01:38:03,560 --> 01:38:06,920 Speaker 1: of the game in the Trump era, and now just 1925 01:38:07,080 --> 01:38:10,000 Speaker 1: flip the board over. Totally got to go back to 1926 01:38:10,040 --> 01:38:13,480 Speaker 1: the drawing board of what's going on in our politics, 1927 01:38:13,600 --> 01:38:15,920 Speaker 1: what it's going to look like, what matters, what doesn't, 1928 01:38:16,040 --> 01:38:19,280 Speaker 1: How voters vote, who they're voting for, what are the coalitions. 1929 01:38:19,280 --> 01:38:23,240 Speaker 1: I mean, everything really is kind of up for grabs 1930 01:38:23,280 --> 01:38:26,720 Speaker 1: at this point, and it creates a level of uncertainty 1931 01:38:26,920 --> 01:38:32,639 Speaker 1: that is extraordinary. Last night was an extraordinarily strange election, 1932 01:38:33,200 --> 01:38:37,920 Speaker 1: with patchwork results, regional results, race by race, state by state. 1933 01:38:38,040 --> 01:38:40,080 Speaker 1: Tickets splitters, I mean, ticket splitters aren't supposed to be 1934 01:38:40,120 --> 01:38:43,760 Speaker 1: a thing anymore in this hard partisan environment. You're you're 1935 01:38:43,840 --> 01:38:46,080 Speaker 1: a lot, you know, you got yeah right, you got 1936 01:38:46,080 --> 01:38:49,960 Speaker 1: like massive tickets splitting in Georgia, massive tickets splitting in 1937 01:38:50,040 --> 01:38:54,400 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania in Ohio, state by state by state, huge significance 1938 01:38:54,400 --> 01:38:56,080 Speaker 1: of people who are voting town and this one and 1939 01:38:56,160 --> 01:38:59,840 Speaker 1: voting Republican on that one. So it truly is going 1940 01:39:00,120 --> 01:39:02,760 Speaker 1: to be an extraordinary period and I couldn't be more 1941 01:39:02,840 --> 01:39:06,240 Speaker 1: excited to have the privilege of doing it here with Sager, 1942 01:39:06,360 --> 01:39:08,040 Speaker 1: with you guys. You guys have enabled it all and 1943 01:39:08,080 --> 01:39:10,519 Speaker 1: made it possible. We are endlessly grateful for that. So 1944 01:39:10,720 --> 01:39:13,240 Speaker 1: thank you, We love you guys. Oh Ryan and Emily 1945 01:39:13,280 --> 01:39:15,759 Speaker 1: gonna be here tomorrow and on Friday, and on Friday, 1946 01:39:15,800 --> 01:39:20,280 Speaker 1: BP and CP every single day of this week. Again, 1947 01:39:20,400 --> 01:39:22,439 Speaker 1: thanks to all of you. It is very expensive in 1948 01:39:22,560 --> 01:39:25,360 Speaker 1: order to do this, and thank you all so much again. 1949 01:39:25,400 --> 01:39:27,679 Speaker 1: All right, I think it's time for us to take off. 1950 01:39:27,800 --> 01:39:29,840 Speaker 1: We will have clips of everything that we just did 1951 01:39:29,920 --> 01:39:31,760 Speaker 1: here on the channel for the rest of the day. 1952 01:39:31,760 --> 01:39:33,240 Speaker 1: For those of you who are watching just you know, 1953 01:39:33,640 --> 01:39:35,840 Speaker 1: I guess technically in our own interest, you should rewatch them. 1954 01:39:35,880 --> 01:39:38,720 Speaker 1: But if you don't have to hear through, if you 1955 01:39:38,760 --> 01:39:41,080 Speaker 1: missed at the top, we will be posting all of that. 1956 01:39:41,200 --> 01:39:43,880 Speaker 1: Everything will be available on the podcast feed. We'll go 1957 01:39:43,920 --> 01:39:46,280 Speaker 1: ahead and post our election audio from last night. It 1958 01:39:46,320 --> 01:39:49,320 Speaker 1: was five hours and forty minutes got yeah, totally amazing, 1959 01:39:49,439 --> 01:39:51,680 Speaker 1: saying we'll post that as a podcast in its own right, 1960 01:39:51,760 --> 01:39:53,600 Speaker 1: and then this audio we'll go ahead and publish it 1961 01:39:53,680 --> 01:39:55,639 Speaker 1: right after we're done here in the studio. We love 1962 01:39:55,680 --> 01:40:07,240 Speaker 1: you all, and we'll see you later. Seey'all on Monday.