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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we.

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Speaker 1: Go spreading the court ten seconds ormating, it's gonna just

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Speaker 1: go throw me up to.

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Speaker 3: The basket, under the basket.

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Speaker 2: It's the truit for the wind God. A miracle. I

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Speaker 2: just chuck the water. Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 2: college basketball Conference Tournament Betting Preview, Part five. I'm stucky

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Speaker 2: enjoining me today to cover four conference tournaments. My guy

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Speaker 2: kym cun Kyle, what's going on? Brother?

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Speaker 3: Not much? Just watched the kittiesa Liberty final. Tough to

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Speaker 3: be decided on a foul call, but a great game

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Speaker 3: either way. A lot of good basketball today.

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Speaker 2: Insane that Kenna saw is dancing. They were one in

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Speaker 2: twenty eight in what twenty nineteen, twenty twenty like three

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Speaker 2: years ago. Crazy job by ab door meaheen building that program.

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Speaker 2: A lot of guys who have been there for a while.

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Speaker 2: I do feel for Darius McGee, oh for eleven from

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Speaker 2: three gave me similar vibes to I was in Vegas

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Speaker 2: for Wafford, Kentucky when Fletcher McGee went oh of twelve

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Speaker 2: in the last game of his career. It was I'm

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Speaker 2: sure McGee will probably play in a postseason tournaments, that

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Speaker 2: might not be his last game, but they gave me

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Speaker 2: the same same vibes, and I felt bad for him

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Speaker 2: because he's a hell of a player and hell of

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Speaker 2: a shooter. Probably the wors shooting game of his career

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Speaker 2: at the wrong time.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he averaged like forty five points per game against

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Speaker 3: Kennesaw the previous two games, so it's it's a bit

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Speaker 3: of a shocker. Yeah, something about McGee's in March. Unfortunate

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Speaker 3: feel for him as well. But abdur raheem Man, what

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Speaker 3: a program build. Just so impressed by what he's done there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and they that was an enormous call because McGee

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Speaker 2: wasn't gonna miss forever. And although momentum was that they

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Speaker 2: don't score that, I think it's Liberties game in overtime.

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Speaker 2: So Kennsall is dancing. We have some weird teams in

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Speaker 2: the dance. Simo is dancing fairly. Dickinson, it's insane that

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Speaker 2: they're dancing stupid role Mary mac is weally good. And

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Speaker 2: then I mean so we also get a conference tournament

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Speaker 2: that means nothing. I mean, obviously it means something that

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Speaker 2: the kids, but like, come on, can we get it's

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Speaker 2: maybe the first year. I mean, I think it's just

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Speaker 2: stupid regardless, but come on, and then Drake, who was

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Speaker 2: just dominant the way that they did it on national TV,

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Speaker 2: they might become everyone's darling. And I think they're a

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Speaker 2: great darling to take to the dance. Would you agree?

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Speaker 3: Oh? Absolutely, Their super experienced, they don't really make mistakes.

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Speaker 3: They have a great guard play, they have a great

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Speaker 3: coach in my opinion, debrees, and they play great defense.

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Speaker 3: So there's a lot of good things going for him.

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Speaker 3: Missouri Valley also tends to be a Cinderella story in

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Speaker 3: March Madness quite often.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Drake's healthy now that they've dealt with a lot

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Speaker 2: of injuries in the past. There's only seven guys in

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Speaker 2: all of college basketball that are over that are twenty

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Speaker 2: five or older. Drake has three. Roman penn Is forty

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Speaker 2: years old. He started for Sienna in twenty seventeen twenty

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Speaker 2: seventeen season, which is just insane. But yeah, they're dangerous.

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Speaker 2: I really don't want, like some of my futures teams

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Speaker 2: on the four or five line to face them, and

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Speaker 2: I would love to bet them against a couple others.

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Speaker 2: Give me them against like Virginia or Iowa State. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: Drake will be a dangerous team. Come throw them up.

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Speaker 2: But we have we have four other leagues to talk

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Speaker 2: about today. We're going to talk about the Big West,

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Speaker 2: the Big East, the Mountain West, and the whack so

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Speaker 2: little West coast flavor. Today with the Big East, let's start.

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Speaker 2: Where do you want to start? What are you most

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Speaker 2: passionate about out of these four?

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Speaker 3: Oh man, most passionate, Let's start Big West. I love that, sure,

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Speaker 3: Big West Tuesday to Saturday. And you got three tournaments

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Speaker 3: out west that are all that.

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Speaker 2: Are in Vegas and then the Big East Tournament, which

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Speaker 2: is in the world's most famous arena. But let's start

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Speaker 2: Big West Tuesday to Saturday in Henderson, Nevada. Ten of

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Speaker 2: the eleven teams will participate in this tournament. Because you

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Speaker 2: see San Diego a lot of games. They've had some

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Speaker 2: pretty infamous gambling moments this year and meltdowns and their

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Speaker 2: second half's have been pretty interesting. But they're not eligible

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Speaker 2: for this tournament, which is it's just ridiculous, like some

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Speaker 2: some of these teams are we're going to talk about

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Speaker 2: what the I think we have a in the whack

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Speaker 2: is there?

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Speaker 3: Well, they have the weird thing about New Mexico State, right,

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Speaker 3: they forget their season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's some other there's a couple other conferences where

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Speaker 2: teams that are playing and it aren't eligible for the tournament,

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Speaker 2: but they can win, like Mary Mack. But so who knows.

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Speaker 2: You're not even letting you see San Diego play in

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Speaker 2: the conference Tournament's ridiculous.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, their games don't even count for the standings. I

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Speaker 3: think West that's a weird, weird rule. They have only

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Speaker 3: conference does that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but the one seed is you see Irvine, they

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Speaker 2: are the favorites to win at their plus one sixty ish.

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Speaker 2: You see Santa Barbara is the two seed their plus

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Speaker 2: three twenty five. Then you see Riverside is the three seed.

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Speaker 2: They're nine to one. Fortunes actually the four seed in

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Speaker 2: four to one. Then Hawaii is the five seeds six

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Speaker 2: to one. Then you're you see Davis the six seed

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Speaker 2: ten to one, Beach with seven seed sixteen to one.

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Speaker 2: And then you have your the dregs Polly Northridge and Bakersfield,

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Speaker 2: or you know, one hundred to one plus. It's worth

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Speaker 2: noting that. And I think UC Irvin got the number

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Speaker 2: one seed because they went two and oher against Riverside

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Speaker 2: and Santa Barbara went oh and two against Riverside. And

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Speaker 2: in the bottom half of the bracket, that's who Santa

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Speaker 2: Barbara would face in the semis if they get by

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Speaker 2: the winner of Beach and Polly and Riverside gets by.

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Speaker 2: U see Davis, So talk to me about just high

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Speaker 2: level what you see in the Big West. Are there

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Speaker 2: is there any value or at the top or any

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Speaker 2: long shots worth exploring?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, first off, I would say it's pretty wide open

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Speaker 3: because these teams one through seven, there's not a lot

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Speaker 3: of gap between them between like one hundred and one

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Speaker 3: forty seven on Kimpum. You're not going to see a

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Speaker 3: spread higher than three points ish among these teams. So

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Speaker 3: kind of tough to pick a winner in terms of

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Speaker 3: or emphatically pick a winner, let's say, which is why

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Speaker 3: I kind of lean towards a team not named Irvine,

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Speaker 3: a team with a little bit longer odds. I lean

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Speaker 3: towards Barbara here. I think Santa Barbara's the most talented

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Speaker 3: team in the conference. Have the best guard in aj

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Speaker 3: Mitchell arguably the best front court as well. Now they

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Speaker 3: do have to play riverside in round two, like you said,

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Speaker 3: who swept them, but they were close games, and again

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Speaker 3: I tend to ride talent in the tournament. I'm leaning

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Speaker 3: their way right now. Plus three twenty five. It sticks

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Speaker 3: out to me as one of the better values in

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Speaker 3: this conference.

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Speaker 2: Now on the So if you're looking at the top

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Speaker 2: half and you're wanting to fade uc Irvine, because let

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Speaker 2: me say, if I run this real quick, because I

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Speaker 2: don't agree you Irvine at plus one sixty, I mean

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Speaker 2: I have them at like thirty percent, So there is

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Speaker 2: zero value in UC Irvine. I'm gonna come on here

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Speaker 2: and make a case for my beloved Hawaii Warriors. So

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Speaker 2: they would, you know, the first I think you could

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Speaker 2: find if you can find like an eight to one

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Speaker 2: out there. They did get blown out in the finale

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Speaker 2: against Santa Barbara, but before then, if you look at

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Speaker 2: a lot of their losses, I mean they lost a

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Speaker 2: full ten in overtime earlier than the season, they lost

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Speaker 2: to Yale and in overtime they lost to Commerce by two.

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Speaker 2: They lost to Irvine. Let's see, they lost to they

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Speaker 2: lost at Irvine, beat Irvine at home, they lost a

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Speaker 2: riverside by two. They I mean they lost to Santa

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Speaker 2: Barbara by one. I mean six of their ten losses

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Speaker 2: were by two or less or in overtime. And you know,

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Speaker 2: they did get the Silva back last game. And this

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Speaker 2: kid more Seck, the seven foot one freshman has really

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Speaker 2: come on down the stretch. Had a rough game. I

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Speaker 2: think they were really just walking into a buzz solid

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Speaker 2: UC Santa Barbara going for, you know, a share of

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Speaker 2: the regular season title. But yeah, I don't mind the

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Speaker 2: matchup of Hawaii against Irvine if they get by Fullerton,

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Speaker 2: which is certainly no given that's close to a coin

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Speaker 2: flip game. But I like the upside of Hawaii. Any

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Speaker 2: thoughts there on who else you could attack on the

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Speaker 2: top half with Hawaii, it is worth noting, you know,

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Speaker 2: I know set has been playing lately at the Silva's back,

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Speaker 2: but Hawaii is no bench, which could be a factor.

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Speaker 2: What do you see in the top half other than Irvine.

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Speaker 3: I kind of like Fullerton and Hawaii to beat Irvine.

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Speaker 3: So either team that comes out of that matchup, So

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Speaker 3: Fullton doesn't get a lot of press, but they won

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Speaker 3: this tourney last year, and they've beaten every single top

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Speaker 3: team in the league, so that they've proven they can

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Speaker 3: beat these teams. They compete and then, in Hawaii's case,

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Speaker 3: their defense, their toughness is what gives them a high ceiling.

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Speaker 3: I think in a tournament setting they can drag any

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Speaker 3: team into the mud. You know, I do worry eventually

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Speaker 3: when they get to the championship play. Santa Barbara seems

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Speaker 3: to be the one team that can kind of out

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Speaker 3: talent them. We'll say, I think it's really hard for

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Speaker 3: Hawaii to be top talent. But a team like Fullton Irvine,

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Speaker 3: I think Hawaii can hang in there, drag them in

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Speaker 3: the mud and win by their defense. So again, Fulton

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Speaker 3: or Hawaii, I kind of like their chances over Irvine.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the but if you look at Santa Barbara, they

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Speaker 2: and you look at their their metrics, they live in

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Speaker 2: the mid range and they thrive in the mid range,

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Speaker 2: and that's what Hawaii. That's where Hawaii forces you to go, right.

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Speaker 2: They take away the three I think they are. They

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Speaker 2: might have the lowest number one's pertive. Yeah, number one.

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Speaker 2: They don't give up any three. They have a lot

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Speaker 2: of length, They can contest shots, and you know they're

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Speaker 2: they can defend at the rim. But if you can

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Speaker 2: ride in that mid range game, which is what Santa

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Speaker 2: Barbara can do with their guard, that's why they've given

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Speaker 2: Hawaii a bunch of trouble. So I think it actually

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Speaker 2: works in Hawaii's favor that Barber's on the other side,

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Speaker 2: and you would hope that, you know, I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think you can find an eight to one and then

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Speaker 2: you can always hope that Riverside knocks off Barbara. Again,

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Speaker 2: Hawaii did beat Riverside by four on the road and

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Speaker 2: they lost by two at home. I think that's a

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Speaker 2: little better matchup for them. So yeah, I think depending

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Speaker 2: on who you like in that Hawaii Fullerton game, and

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Speaker 2: obviously shop around, I think that let's see, because who

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Speaker 2: would I prefer from a matchup perspective, Hawaii or Fullerton

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Speaker 2: against Irvine, And I think they both are going to

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Speaker 2: be They're going to be price similarly, right, these two

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Speaker 2: teams are in the same stratosphere.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, same spread either way most likely for both those teams. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Fullerton who's more reliant, who can shoot the three?

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Speaker 2: I mean like Fullerton three a little better, which is

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Speaker 2: which is good because Irvine again, what are they the

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Speaker 2: number one two point defense? Again as always? So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think it would depend on price and then who

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Speaker 2: you like in that matchup. I'm kind of biased to Hawai.

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Speaker 2: They have a soft spot in my heart, so I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go with the Bows as the long shot. You're

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Speaker 2: calling Santa Barbara what plus plus three fifty ish?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Around there, and hey, if you want a flyer.

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Speaker 3: We haven't even talked about Riverside. I think they're nine

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Speaker 3: to one in some places. I mean they're going to

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Speaker 3: be a pick with UC Davis, who they swept. They

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Speaker 3: swept Santa Barbara, and then you make the championship. They

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Speaker 3: did get swept by Fullerton in Irvine, so not great

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Speaker 3: matchups there, but with the price, you might consider Riverside

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Speaker 3: as well. Like I said, these top seven teams are

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Speaker 3: pretty much indistinguishable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you always have a guy, you have a

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Speaker 2: guy like Zion pulling in your back pocket. And he

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Speaker 2: didn't play. He didn't play for what two weeks early

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Speaker 2: in January, which shocking. Yeah, they like one almost every

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Speaker 2: game except Fullerton, but he's fully back now. Yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that there's much of a difference between

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Speaker 2: all these teams, which makes Irvine just throw them out

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Speaker 2: the window. They could obviously win this tournament, but at

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Speaker 2: their current price, there is absolutely no value. And because

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Speaker 2: they're so short, I think it's creating some value on

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Speaker 2: some of the other teams. And it just comes down

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Speaker 2: to a personal preference of who you like and for

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Speaker 2: what reason. Yeah, absolutely, all right, good stuff on the

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Speaker 2: Big West. Let's go out east and talk the Big

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Speaker 2: East Tournament, which will be March eighth through the eleventh,

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Speaker 2: obviously in Madison Square Garden. The interesting part about this

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Speaker 2: tournament is Villanova has already advanced on Wikipedia. So if

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Speaker 2: you go to Wikipedia and you pull up the bracket,

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Speaker 2: the Big East bracket, you will see Villanova has already

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Speaker 2: advanced past Georgetown and we'll face Crayton on Thursday. But anyway,

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Speaker 2: the as far as the odds are concerned, Yukon is

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Speaker 2: the favorite at plus two eighty. Marquette who's the one

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Speaker 2: seed plus two ninety. Obviously, shop around. These can differ

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Speaker 2: per book the Creighton plus three Fortyhavior plus four thirty,

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Speaker 2: Villanova plus eight hundred, Providence plus fifteen hundred, Paul plus

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Speaker 2: thirty to one the home Johnny's fifty five to one.

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Speaker 2: Then you're down in the dregs of Georgetown, De Paul

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Speaker 2: and Butler. The top six seeds get a buy here.

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Speaker 2: That's Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Villanova, Yukon, and Providence. Saint John's

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Speaker 2: will take on Butler in the first round. Scene Hall

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Speaker 2: will take on to Paul, and Villanova will take on Georgetown.

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Speaker 2: The first thing I'll mention here is, look, VILLAINO. You

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Speaker 2: might hear Villain Nova get a lot of love with

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Speaker 2: the way that they're playing. And you know, Justin Moore

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Speaker 2: has returned, and he's really important, his facilitator on that offense.

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Speaker 2: He's a really good on ball defender. But eight to one,

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Speaker 2: I mean, they got to win four games in four days.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: They play really slow, they have a decent bench, like

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Speaker 2: they're not like trying to run up and down the court.

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Speaker 2: But they got to this. So they'll take on Georgetown first.

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Speaker 2: You figure minus twelve eleven twelve if you just take

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Speaker 2: that game, and then presumably they got to play Creighton,

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Speaker 2: then Xavier, then Yukon. If you assume that they were

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Speaker 2: a pick in all three of those games at minus eleven,

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Speaker 2: which they're not gonna be a pick like they were

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Speaker 2: just plus two against yukon it at all. If they

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Speaker 2: were just a pick toss up in all three of

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Speaker 2: those games, and then minus eleven twelve against Ursum, a

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Speaker 2: money line roller would be ten to one. Like, So

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Speaker 2: do not take eight to one of Villanova. And if

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Speaker 2: you're not familiar with how money line rollover works, you

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Speaker 2: would just take a unit. And in the first game,

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Speaker 2: so you're unit was one hundred dollars, you've got a

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Speaker 2: hundred dolls. Risk one hundred dollars on Villanova moneyline against Georgetown, right,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna return pennies. But then you would take that

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Speaker 2: one hundred plus whatever you want and then put it

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Speaker 2: on money line the next game, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: You only risk your original unit, and then by the

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Speaker 2: time you're done, you would you want to kind of

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Speaker 2: compare them. Now there's also uncertain you could have a

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Speaker 2: huge upset, you could have you know, Saint John's make

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Speaker 2: it to the final, but even so you'd still are

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Speaker 2: probably going to get better than the eighth to one

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Speaker 2: that's happened. So that's the first thing that I'll say.

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Speaker 2: The second thing that I'll say is who do I

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Speaker 2: want to attack here from like fading if you look

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Speaker 2: over the past month and this kind of illustrates. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Villanova's looking they've been playing well. They just beat Craton,

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Speaker 2: But over the past month, which is three games into

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Speaker 2: Justin Moore coming back, he kind of struggled as rusty

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Speaker 2: over the past month. You on per Torvik, Yukon number

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Speaker 2: one team in the country. Yep, over the past thirty days,

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Speaker 2: Creighton sixteen, Xavier nineteen, Marquette thirty five. You know they'll

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Speaker 2: love is like forty eighth. So it's not like they've

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Speaker 2: been a top twenty team since said John's seventy nine,

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Speaker 2: Hall eighty five, Providence ninetieth, they've been the ninetieth best

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Speaker 2: team over the past month. But you know they're fifteen

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Speaker 2: to one. What makes them potentially interesting. I hate that

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Speaker 2: they go up against Yukon. They did split with Yukon

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Speaker 2: in the season. I don't think it's a great matchup.

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Speaker 2: But you know we've seen Coolly make runs here before.

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Speaker 2: Do you get an inspired effort from Providence after getting

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Speaker 2: embarrassed on their home court by Seaton Hall to close

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Speaker 2: out the regular season, Because if they can beat Yukon. Right,

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Speaker 2: there's I like, Marquette could lose to Saint John's. We've

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Speaker 2: seen those games will be super high variances. We just

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Speaker 2: saw Saint John's had a shot to win at Marquette

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Speaker 2: this past weekend. So like, can Providence get by Yukon,

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Speaker 2: Because if so at fifteen to one, they know they're

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Speaker 2: only going to win three games, that might be interesting.

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Speaker 2: I actually do show value in Yukon because I think

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Speaker 2: Marquette that you know, the same price as Yukon, is crazy.

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Speaker 2: So I actually show a tad which is hardly ever

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Speaker 2: happens with these teams at the top, But I show

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Speaker 2: a little bit of value on Yukon at its current price.

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Speaker 2: In the bottom half, you know, Xavier is getting healthier,

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Speaker 2: playing well, you have Creighton there, but Villanova plays them tough,

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Speaker 2: which makes me probably just toss them to the side,

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Speaker 2: and then there's no value in Villanova. That's kind of

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Speaker 2: how I say it from a broad perspective. Why don't

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Speaker 2: you break it down from what you say?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, first of all, I think it's a tough lead

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Speaker 3: to pick. I think the top four of this league

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Speaker 3: is awesome. Yukon, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, I think all four

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Speaker 3: teams can make runs in the tournament. I agree with

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Speaker 3: you on Nova, I'm not interested in this future from

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Speaker 3: a value perspective. From the perspective, I don't really think

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Speaker 3: they're that good. I think they're getting a lot of press,

336
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Speaker 3: and they're certainly better than they were in the non conference,

337
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Speaker 3: but they're not an elite team by any stretch. Providence

338
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Speaker 3: always time. If you like them, just money on rollover exactly,

339
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Speaker 3: Just do that instead. Providence is a tough team to pay.

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Speaker 3: They're a wild card. They have a lot of talent,

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Speaker 3: Bryce Hopkins, I mean top end talent, and they have

342
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Speaker 3: a great coach, and they're weird, and they really grind

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Speaker 3: games out and they're physical and can definitely win in

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Speaker 3: a tournament setting. But like you said, Yukon, that first

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Speaker 3: matchup is terrible for them. And this Yukon team they

346
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Speaker 3: look like they did in Portland when they were dominating

347
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Speaker 3: teams at the beginning of the season. I think they

348
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Speaker 3: could be the best team in the country still, and

349
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Speaker 3: that's scary. They have to get past Marquette, who can

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Speaker 3: definitely throw some stuff at them, but I think they're

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Speaker 3: good enough to do it. Game two, they seem to

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Speaker 3: figure it out against Marquette. The one that's kind of

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Speaker 3: intriguing me is Xavier at five to one. That's assuming

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Speaker 3: Zach Fremantle plays. I think he is going to come

355
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Speaker 3: back for the Big East Tournament. They were borderline top

356
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Speaker 3: ten in the country when he was when he was

357
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Speaker 3: in the lineup, they have beaten Creighton, they've gotten past

358
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Speaker 3: them before. If he's back, they're the best shooting team

359
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Speaker 3: in the conference, and they're much better on defense with

360
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Speaker 3: him in the game. So that could be a little

361
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Speaker 3: bit of value Xavier. But again, it's tough to emphatically

362
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Speaker 3: say they're going to be Creyton. Who's another team just

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00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 3: like so, I guess I go yu kun if I

364
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Speaker 3: had to choose a team in here based on what

365
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Speaker 3: the prices are on the market.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Xavier's really I mean the thing that

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Speaker 2: we talked I talked about this with Maddie and the

368
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Speaker 2: previous our previous episode. If you haven't listened to that,

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Speaker 2: make sure you checked that out. We were talking PAC

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Speaker 2: twelve and like Utah got healthier over the weekend. But

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Speaker 2: it's like one game, Xavier. It's even the Fremantle hasn't

372
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Speaker 2: come back yet it is absence to guard. Their guards

373
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Speaker 2: are playing really really well, and maybe New York City

374
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Speaker 2: turns into a boomtown or that announcer say that the

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Speaker 2: other day. I love that line. But you know, Fremantle,

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Speaker 2: if he comes back, is he you know, you got

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Speaker 2: to assimilate him back in the lineup? Is he get like,

378
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 2: how many minutes does he get? He hasn't played yet.

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Speaker 2: He hasn't played since January twenty eighth. Because I agree

380
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Speaker 2: that the upside with him fully assimilated into the lineup

381
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Speaker 2: is huge, But is he going to be that? Is

382
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Speaker 2: he going to play full minutes? Is there going to

383
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 2: be some rust? Is you know so like is there

384
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Speaker 2: like conditioning?

385
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Speaker 3: I don't so, I don't know they have good without

386
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,200
Speaker 3: him though, to your point, and there's nine the nine

387
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,120
Speaker 3: games he missed, they lost three of them combined four points.

388
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Speaker 3: They lost by in those three games, so they haven't

389
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Speaker 3: exactly gotten killed by any means. One of them was

390
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 3: butler bad loss, but they shot horribly. So there are

391
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,879
Speaker 3: a couple possessions away from nine to zero without Freemancele

392
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Speaker 3: in the lineup. Who is arguably behind Boom their most

393
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Speaker 3: impactful player.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I you know, my strategy for this because I'm

395
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Speaker 2: looking to fade Marquette. Marquettet the current price I think

396
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:40,479
Speaker 2: is is pretty crazy just from where I have them rated.

397
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 2: I don't think they match up well with Yukon. I

398
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 2: think could just dominate too big at the rim, So

399
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Speaker 2: like I show some value on Yukon, and so I

400
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,199
Speaker 2: might end up playing Yukon. And then also maybe a

401
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 2: little like a smaller play on Providence is just a

402
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 2: dark because I want to fade Marquette at the top,

403
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 2: because I do think if Providence can just put one

404
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,679
Speaker 2: inspired effort together, then I mean it's pretty you think

405
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: about it. They're fifteen to one. They got to win

406
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,959
Speaker 2: one fewer game than Villanova, and they have an easier

407
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 2: path overall than Villanova, and Villanova's eighth to one, and

408
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 2: it's look, Georgetown stinks, but it's not a gimme. It's

409
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Speaker 2: not like you're playing Stonybrook. Georgetown still has like a

410
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,919
Speaker 2: lot of talent. They never can put it together, but

411
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 2: like it's not out of the realm that Georgetown wins

412
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Speaker 2: that game, right, And like.

413
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've seen you Eve win the Geese Tournament before, right,

414
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 3: He's he's done it.

415
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we'll say if George can have some renewed

416
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 2: life here because they have a talented backcourt, and you

417
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,199
Speaker 2: know Nova plays slow, it's not like that that's one

418
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 2: hundred percent given for Nova to advance. So yeah, I'm

419
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 2: gonna call I think Yukon is playing way too well

420
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 2: right now, So I'm gonna call you Yukon wins this thing.

421
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 2: And but if you're if you want to take a

422
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 2: dart or a flyer, I don't hate Providence because basically

423
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 2: you're just betting can they put it together for one

424
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 2: game against Yukon? And you know people are some people

425
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 2: are always going to talk themselves into the Johnnies. You

426
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 2: know it's in New York. They're just way too erratic

427
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,919
Speaker 2: and way too inconsistent, like they could upset anybody. This

428
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 2: is why you know, I want to fade Market too,

429
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 2: because they could easily beat Butler and then beat Marquette.

430
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 2: But like putting, you know, them beating two more quality

431
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 2: opponents in the Big East, I don't see it happening,

432
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:40,880
Speaker 2: do you agree?

433
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 3: I agree, too erratic, and I think Mike Anderson knows

434
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 3: he's on the way out, So who knows what what

435
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 3: factors in there are affecting the team.

436
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's he's look like he has his style. And

437
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 2: but the think he started doing the you know they

438
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,080
Speaker 2: go to the the coaches like talk like they know

439
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 2: what they're talking about during the timeouts on FS one,

440
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 2: and like the difference between him and then Sean Miller.

441
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 2: They like when Zavier was planning them, like Sean Miller

442
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 2: is going into like all right, we need to do

443
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 2: this and specific like schematics, and and then Anderson's like

444
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 2: all right, we got a rebound and then like walks away.

445
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 3: I'm like, it tells you all I need to know.

446
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, good stuff on the Biggest any any

447
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 2: I guess I should have mentioned this for the Big

448
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 2: West or Biggest, but for either conference, any matchups in

449
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 2: the first round or just down the line from a

450
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,479
Speaker 2: betting perspective that you're itching to potentially.

451
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 3: See, you know, not in particular. Like I said, I

452
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 3: really really like this top four Xavier creating Connecticut in particular,

453
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 3: and I really think if Freemantle comes back, Xavier is

454
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 3: probably the team to beat.

455
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 2: Well if you and I agree that, like if you

456
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 2: just look at this market right now, and then the

457
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:58,679
Speaker 2: narrative on Villanova, this is they're definitely overvalued overall, and

458
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 2: you know, you might have to hold your nose, but

459
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: Georgetown probably is gonna have value. Maybe, Well you can

460
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 2: get a juice your number in the first round.

461
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 3: There's a two hundred and one I mean no.

462
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 2: I mean like just against the number against Villanova.

463
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 3: Oh, yes, absolutely, they're gonna be yeah, favored by double digits,

464
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 3: twelve points probably, Yeah, seems high.

465
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think Georgetown played Villanova earlier this year. They

466
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 2: lost by four at Nova, lost by sixteen at home.

467
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 2: But they're way more talented than they played. So like

468
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 2: you get a team like that New Life, Fresh Start.

469
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 2: One game is a double digit dog. You know, Nova

470
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 2: plays kind of grinds it out. I think Georgetown is

471
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 2: probably going to be on my card. Unfortunately or fortunately

472
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 2: if they end up covering the it hacks up in

473
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 2: the first half, and then they will have moments this

474
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: is a lot last year. Well, they'll they'll they'll score

475
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 2: like ten straight in the final minute to get in

476
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 2: the back door.

477
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 3: Right, that's just what they do.

478
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. As a reminder before we go any further, college

479
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 2: basketball season is in full swing, so get in on

480
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,760
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484
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485
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486
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487
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490
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491
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492
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493
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Speaker 2: Wyoming or Virginia one eight hundred two seven zero seven

494
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495
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496
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Speaker 2: Virginia one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa one hundred

497
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Speaker 2: ninet eight one zero zero two three. In pquert Rico,

498
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Speaker 2: call eight seven seven eight hope and Why, or text

499
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Speaker 2: hope and Why. In New York call it. Text the

500
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 2: Tennessee Redline at twenty hundred and eight nine nine seven

501
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,160
Speaker 2: eight nine, or call one eight eight eight seven seven

502
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 2: seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. In Ontario, if

503
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,800
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504
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,160
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505
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,000
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506
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,240
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507
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 2: in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah and other states were prohibitted.

508
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 2: Promotional offers not available in Nevada. In New York. All right,

509
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 2: let's move on. Let's talk a little Mountain West. This

510
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 2: will be played in the Thomas and mack Centered UNLV's

511
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 2: home in Las Vegas, Nevada. Between starts on Wednesday, ends

512
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: on Sunday, March eighth to the eleventh. Boise State is

513
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 2: your defending champion. San Diego State is the one seed

514
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 2: and the favorite. Utah State is the two seed. Not

515
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 2: many people will know that if you have someone to

516
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: the shoot. Here's the two seed in the matatles, it's

517
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 2: Utah State. Boise State is the three seed, Nevadas the four.

518
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 2: San Jose State is the five. Those five all get

519
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 2: a buy to Thursday. On Wednesday, you have three first

520
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 2: round games, Colorado State against Fresno State, UNLV against air Force,

521
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 2: and New Mexico against Wyoming. I would assume, I think,

522
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 2: I maybe you're more into bracketology than I think the

523
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 2: top four seeds are in. Maybe as you toss State in,

524
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 2: they're right.

525
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: On the cut line. I think their win against Boise

526
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 3: probably puts them in. For a lot of people. Their

527
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 3: net is like top twenty, top twenty five right now.

528
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 3: It'd be really tough for them to keep them out

529
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 3: right now based on their strength strength of resume.

530
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess if like air Force beats UNLV and

531
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 2: then they lose the air Force, yeah, that could that

532
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 2: could hurt.

533
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 3: But they have they have zero Q one wins and

534
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 3: no at large team has ever had zero Q one wins,

535
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 3: so that's kind of the precedents they're trying to overcome.

536
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, I think it won I mean, if

537
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 2: they UNLV. Will UNLV be a quad one win?

538
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 3: No, I don't think so. I think they're outside of

539
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 3: the top seventy five in the NET.

540
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, what is you and I'll be at like, well

541
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: this count as? Does that count as a road game

542
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 2: or no?

543
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 3: I don't know, good question. That's hom smack right.

544
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, so maybe they count that as a road game

545
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 2: or because it's considered like neutral, but it is a

546
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 2: road game.

547
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,479
Speaker 3: Probably not, Yeah, I mean I know kem pom will

548
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 3: probably call it like a semi home or a home game.

549
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 3: But for net purposes, they probably counted as a neutral

550
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 3: eighty nine, so it would be a Q two. But

551
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 3: if they get past that game, they play Boise, I

552
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 3: mean that's a Q one neutral. It should obviously be

553
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: a huge one if if they beat them again, it'd

554
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 3: be really hard to keep them out of the tournament. Actually,

555
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: Boise is twenty seventh in the NET. So they did

556
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: pick up a Q one win by beating them at home,

557
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: so they got one fulfilled.

558
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. New Mexico would have to win this tournament, I

559
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,719
Speaker 2: believe maybe if yeah, they do too badly. Yeah, if

560
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 2: you got the championship and you beat like Boise, Utah

561
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 2: State I still don't think that would be enough. So

562
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 2: they have to win this thing to get in. Looking

563
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 2: at the odds in the Mountain West, San Diego State

564
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 2: is plus one fifty Boise States plus three forty Utah

565
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 2: States plus three eighty Nevada six to one, New Mexico

566
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: twelve to one, UNLV fourteen to one, San Jeese State

567
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 2: forty to one, Colorida State sixty to one, and then

568
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 2: your dregs Fresno Air Force and Wyoming. All right, so

569
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: when I look at this, I mean, San Diego State

570
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 2: is the best team in the league, but this is

571
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:43,719
Speaker 2: one of those favorites. Plus one fifty come on, absolutely

572
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 2: no value. They would presumably have to play Nevada Nevada

573
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 2: in the semi finals, who they split with in the

574
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: regular season, Santego Stit also finally gets gets into these

575
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 2: grinders where like you know, off shooting night Bradley's off,

576
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: they could lose. Like think about were the Presno State

577
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 2: beats Colorado State. I'm gonna talk myself into bed President

578
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 2: State against Coltge State. I know it already. I'm sorry

579
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 2: everyone listened, But in Friendsno State beats Colorado State. Every

580
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 2: Fresno State, San Diego State game is like forty eight

581
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 2: to forty six, like going back to last year.

582
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, even.

583
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 2: In the in the Mountain West torment there's like fifty

584
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: to it's like the free under think it almost went

585
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: under like a double overtime game last year. So I'm

586
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 2: looking to there's no value whatsoever in San Diego State.

587
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 2: So the question becomes, there's New Mexico at twelve to one,

588
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: can they make a run. Now here's the interesting part

589
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 2: about New Mexico, Boise State, also Boise State. In so

590
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 2: San Diego State, no value Boise State, the defending champs.

591
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 2: I want zero part of Boise State. And the reason

592
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 2: is they have zero bench, no bench whatsoever. And you know,

593
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 2: if you look at you know, I look at a

594
00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 2: couple of times when they played let's see when they

595
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 2: played three games in six days this year, they one

596
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 2: of the time they lost both they lost to at

597
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 2: New Mexico and then they lost at San Jose State.

598
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 2: Both games have lost in overtime. Both games they kind

599
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 2: of wore down at the end. Now they're going have

600
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 2: to win three games in three days for a team

601
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 2: that's three hundred and forty ninth in bench minutes, if

602
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 2: you look in New Mexico, Mexico is going to have

603
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 2: to win four games in four days. They are very

604
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 2: reliant on their guards. They are three hundred and forty

605
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 2: seventh in bench minutes and they got to win an

606
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 2: extra extra game. So can you MLV make a run

607
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 2: here at home? What is this like? You gonna go

608
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 2: back when's last on? UNLV won this at wink Adams

609
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 2: was the tournament MVP. I think when you've seen high

610
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 2: level here where the value is in the Mountain West.

611
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 3: It's tough to peg because I feel like all these

612
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 3: teams are poor away from home. Only four teams are

613
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: profitable away from home this year against the spread. But

614
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 3: I guess everyone's on the same playing field here except UNLV,

615
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 3: the team I trust most San Diego State. But to

616
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 3: your point, there is no value here at plus one

617
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 3: fifty plus one thirty five. I've seen it at a

618
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 3: book around here in Illinois, and you have to go

619
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 3: to Nevada, which they're not playing well down the stretch.

620
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 3: That's a dangerous team with plenty of talent. New Mexico

621
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 3: does intrigue me, and the reason is they have so

622
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 3: much talent at the guard position, right it's March. We

623
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 3: trust guards who can basically create their own shots, and

624
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 3: they have two of them with House in Mashburn. I

625
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 3: think they're well coached, and at the beginning of the year,

626
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 3: when healthy, this team was awesome. They're eighteen and two

627
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,959
Speaker 3: at one point. Obviously injuries kind of slowed them down

628
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 3: the back end, but they could definitely make a run.

629
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 3: They have the formula that they can shoot, and they've

630
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 3: also beaten Boise and San Diego State this season. Otherwise,

631
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 3: I look for a team with really good defense. That

632
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 3: is San Diego State and Boise. Boise to their favor.

633
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 3: They have no bench, but they have Marcus Shaver, a

634
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 3: guard who can get a bucket experience point guard, and

635
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 3: they have a fantastic defense. So I'm kind of leaning

636
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 3: towards Boise as my pick here. Utah State intrigues me

637
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 3: as well. Again, a team that can shoot, but I'm

638
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 3: thinking I think I'm gonna submit my pick for a

639
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 3: flyer on New Mexico here as the best value.

640
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of the bench where the bench does

641
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 2: wear me for both boys in New Mexico. You're obviously

642
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: getting a much better price with New Mexico, but they're

643
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: going to play one extra game, but I was kind

644
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 2: of pricing out based on my power ratings. What a

645
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 2: money line rollover four game money on rollover New Mexico

646
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 2: be it's like right around twelve thirteen to one. Now

647
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 2: you might have some I might not be pricing properly

648
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 2: the fatigue, so there might be like a point or

649
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 2: two more, but it's not like an egregious price where

650
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 2: you can moneyline roll over this. In regards to UNLV,

651
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 2: the home team, my concern for UNLV they play air

652
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 2: Force to start, which I mean Force isn't no gimme

653
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 2: at all. They should be like a seven ish seven

654
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 2: and a half point favor They did just close the year.

655
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: I mean they beat They beat air Force by one

656
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 2: at home for what it's worth, Like two weeks ago.

657
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 2: They did just beat Nevada to close the year in overtime.

658
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 2: My problem is healthy guys can't get health there too.

659
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: But Utah State not a great matchup for them, and

660
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 2: they were waxed just March first at home by what

661
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 2: twenty five against Utah State. He did play them closer

662
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 2: on the road, but do you have and look, they

663
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 2: have a really good defense, they're healthier, they have a

664
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 2: deep bench, so the team's going to win four games

665
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 2: and four days they are a little deeper. They'll have

666
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 2: the home court. You'll hear a lot of rebles. Although

667
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 2: Thomas and Mac like, I've used to go out to

668
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 2: Vegas every year for this weekend or this upcoming weekend,

669
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 2: and I was always shocked at the amount of New

670
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 2: Mexico fans that were there. Well, yeah, they travel really

671
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 2: well and like this is a sort of that they

672
00:34:58,120 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 2: have to have, so you'll see a lot of New Mexico.

673
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 2: You'll see Yeah, you know, I won't be as as

674
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 2: dominant of a crowd for UNLV as you think. The

675
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: best game I ever saw there, I went to a

676
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 2: couple of games in the mountainst tournaments. I saw Jimmer

677
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 2: for debt drop like fifty What did he have against

678
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 2: UNLV in the Mounta West tournament.

679
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:21,760
Speaker 3: I'm sure he's done it multiple times.

680
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was he scored fifty two points and I

681
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 2: think I think that was against New Mexico, but I

682
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 2: don't know that was. That's my It was just an

683
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: awesome game to watch. But and so Kent, do you

684
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 2: think you NLV has any chance of making a run here.

685
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 3: If I'm going to give credit to Boise for having

686
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 3: a great point guard then created some shots. I got

687
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 3: to give credit to you and LB two because j.

688
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 3: Harkless is definitely a guy he can get a bucket.

689
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 3: He's a senior, really experienced, and like I said before,

690
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 3: they're healthier with Louis Rodriguez coming back in the lineup.

691
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 3: You could argue they're a bit undervalued analytically because they've

692
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 3: had guys in and out of the lineup, and yeah,

693
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 3: of course at home, always going to have a chance

694
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 3: in a tournament setting. And to your point, they do

695
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 3: play great defense. If for it's a lot of turnovers,

696
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 3: which is really key at the current market price, Yeah,

697
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 3: there can be a little value here in eighteen to one.

698
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 3: I'm worried about San Diego State, obviously they play or

699
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 3: excuse me, on the other side of the bracket, I

700
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 3: worry about Utah State, But from a value perspective, I

701
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 3: could get there on UNLV if he attempted me.

702
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one's tough. Like I wish that some of

703
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 2: the In a way, I wish like San Diego State

704
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 2: got the two seed because there's just zero value in them.

705
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 2: And if you look like San Diego State is very good.

706
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 2: Their defense is elite. But look, they beat what New

707
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 2: Mexico on a three at the buzzer by two. They

708
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 2: beat Fresno State by two a chance to win that

709
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 2: game on a three. They beat Utah State by two.

710
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 2: They beat Colorado State in overtime. You know, just then margins, Yeah,

711
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 2: like that, there's it's a team that's gonna go rind

712
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: it out and it could easily go down. Like just

713
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 2: the price. There's absolutely no value there, which I think

714
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 2: creates a little bit of value on Nevada. But I

715
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 2: think that I think that if you're going to play

716
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 2: this conference tournament, the way to go is and because

717
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:17,760
Speaker 2: of that, you know, maybe you don't get San Diego

718
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 2: State in the final is you take a flyer on

719
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 2: either if you want to back the home reps or

720
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 2: if you want to back the guards of New Mexico

721
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: to make a run. I think that's the way to

722
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 2: go here. Anything you're looking at first round or down

723
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,280
Speaker 2: the line of a potential matchup to bet.

724
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,320
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna fade Wyoming. That's that's my first fade.

725
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna hang with New Mexico at all.

726
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: They just beat Nevada. That surprised the heck out of me.

727
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 3: I don't know how they did that, frankly, but they

728
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 3: show their true colors again at San Diego State. I

729
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: think they're just totally lifeless at this point. They're ready

730
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 3: for their season to be over. So I'll probably be

731
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 3: targeting New Mexico first round.

732
00:37:56,560 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, just an absolutely cursed year for YOM. Mean injuries.

733
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 2: Grammy k the preseason player of the year, never played

734
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 2: red shirted, and you know they kicked off the three

735
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 2: kids got kicked off the team. And if the thing

736
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 2: that sucks is I was looking at this conference tournament

737
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 2: like this episode right now, about a month and a

738
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 2: half ago, and I was like, I'm going to be

739
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 2: pimping Wyoming for a long shot, Like assuming ek was

740
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 2: going to come back right right, they would be healthy

741
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,239
Speaker 2: with Maldonado. They're really well coached, but it's just the

742
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 2: shell of the team they are. They can't really make

743
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 2: a run here all right, One final conference tournament to

744
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 2: get to and that is the whack. This is also

745
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 2: in the battle. This will be in Paradise at the

746
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 2: at Orleans Arena. Starts on Tuesday, ends on Saturday. Top

747
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:59,760
Speaker 2: four seeds get a buy. That is Sam Houston State,

748
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 2: who is the favorite at plus one twenty, Utah value

749
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 2: plus one seventy, Southern Utah seven to one, Seattle fifteen

750
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 2: to one. And then you have Grand Canyon, who doesn't

751
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 2: have to buy. They're fourteen to one Sam Houston State. Look,

752
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 2: they are the best team in this league. Plus one

753
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 2: twenty is crazy. I have them? What do I have

754
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:32,720
Speaker 2: thirty something percent thirty two percent to win this zero

755
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:38,440
Speaker 2: value whatsoever. This is another case where the top seed

756
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:43,919
Speaker 2: and the best team might be creating value elsewhere. High level.

757
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: What are you seeing in the whack?

758
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, First of all, weird seeding because the new Mexico

759
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,760
Speaker 3: State thing. They used a formula to see this tournament.

760
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 3: Utah Valley actually won the league, but they're the two seed.

761
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 3: I agree Sam Houston and Utah value price just based

762
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 3: on the overall talent and the ability of the rest

763
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 3: of the league. This is a really good league, really

764
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 3: tough from seeds three through even nine. I would say

765
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 3: so for teams to be fit to be priced at

766
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 3: one twenty five and one fifty, where you're getting Southern

767
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,879
Speaker 3: Utah at eight to one in Seattle, I see twenty

768
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 3: to one out here. I think that's very mispriced. I

769
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 3: would rather bet on Southern Utah and Seattle, who also

770
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 3: have buys in this bracket at those prices, versus taking

771
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 3: Utah Valley or Sam Houston, who I really do like.

772
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 3: I think they're incredible teams and I might even back

773
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 3: them in the install of a turnam if they get there.

774
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 3: The value just isn't there. Seattle, though, swept Grand Canyon,

775
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,879
Speaker 3: that's their first opponent. They beat Utah Valley, and they've

776
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 3: also shot really poorly as of late, which is not

777
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 3: indicative of their true ability. They shoot a lot of threes,

778
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 3: they usually make them in conference play, especially down the stretch,

779
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 3: they've been missing shots. They're probably due for some regression.

780
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 3: The concern is that they play Sam Houston. They got

781
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:59,479
Speaker 3: handled by them. They don't foul, they handle the ball well.

782
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 3: There They're good against Sam Houston, but it did not

783
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 3: return good results during the season. And again Southern Utah

784
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 3: kind of the same thing with the value perspective. They

785
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 3: split with Utah Valley, that the most experienced team in

786
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,240
Speaker 3: the league, and they have really really top end talent

787
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,839
Speaker 3: with Tavion Jones. So I probably target one of those

788
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:18,800
Speaker 3: two teams instead of the favorites.

789
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's see Southern what's the best price you see

790
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 2: in Southern Utah?

791
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 3: I see eight to one on one book. That's all

792
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 3: I got up right now.

793
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that as well. That The interesting thing

794
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 2: about this conference specifically is now Sam Houston state they

795
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: want to and they can. They can pressure you into

796
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 2: turnovers for days now. They can cough it up themselves.

797
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 2: But this conference is very match up dependent. And then

798
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 2: certain teams play very different styles. You know, you have

799
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: some teams that play extremely fast, Utah Valley, Southern Utah,

800
00:41:57,000 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 2: Rio grand Is of just the Rent. Yeah, they want

801
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:03,839
Speaker 2: to play as fast as possible. And then you have

802
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 2: some some snails cal Baptists, you know, Grand Canyon. Sam

803
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: Houston wants to grind the game down to a halt

804
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 2: as well. If you're looking at potential long shots, maybe

805
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 2: just if someone.

806
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:24,439
Speaker 4: Wants to hedge, could a team like let's see, let's

807
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 4: start in the in the medium col Baptists.

808
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,479
Speaker 2: Taron Armstrong is a really good player. If you haven't

809
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:32,879
Speaker 2: seen him play. I think they're dealing with some injuries now.

810
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:38,919
Speaker 2: They've also not fared well against these teams that can

811
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:42,320
Speaker 2: pressure them and kind of get up into their face

812
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 2: and they struggle with the physicality, which makes it.

813
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 3: Which a really tough first round matchup too.

814
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 2: Yep, So any any of the teams that are you know,

815
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 2: kind of col Baptists on down worth a flyer. I mean,

816
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 2: Ablie Christian. I can never figure out there's a team

817
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 2: that if I had to say who costs me the

818
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,760
Speaker 2: most money over the last two years, it's it's Abline Christian.

819
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 2: They got hot right around this time last year, and

820
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 2: it's a team with a deep bench, their experience. Now,

821
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 2: on paper, they force a ton of turnovers with the

822
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:21,439
Speaker 2: way that their defense is schemed, and they don't turn

823
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 2: it over a lot, but their defense they just give

824
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 2: up so many wide every time I watch them, they

825
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 2: have so many wide open threes, and teams are shooting

826
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 2: a thirty seven point in league play. Teams are shooting

827
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 2: forty two from three, fifty five five percent from two. Yeah,

828
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 2: I mean it's ridiculous. So their defense is just but

829
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 2: they don't cause a turnover, you're getting a wide open shot.

830
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 2: So any of the long shots even worth exploring or

831
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:52,280
Speaker 2: is it just let's look in the that medium range

832
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 2: where they kind of one step below the top teams.

833
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Ablien's tough because the one of the smallest teams

834
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 3: in the country. So they gamble and overplay, and if

835
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 3: you get past that, you're scoring. There's no resistance at

836
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,439
Speaker 3: the rim. The team I'm keeping an eye on which

837
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,959
Speaker 3: I see eighty to one out here is Tarleton State.

838
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 3: Because of their chaotic style. I think they could make

839
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 3: a run kind of like Abilene, but to a different

840
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:18,320
Speaker 3: degree this season. If a team is even slightly shaky

841
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 3: handling the ball and or fouls a lot, there is

842
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 3: a path for Tarleton to simply outwork them. They already

843
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 3: be Utah Valley once already this season. They forced nineteen

844
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 3: turnovers in that game. They shot thirty eight free throws.

845
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 3: That's just what they do. So if a ref is

846
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 3: feeling generous in terms of the whistle, if he's if

847
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 3: he has a tight whistle that night, Tarleton is a

848
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 3: really good shot at knocking off a big name opponent.

849
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 2: Yeah. They It's a very interesting team because their games

850
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 2: are going to have a shit ton of free throws

851
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 2: they are.

852
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 3: Don't watch them, don't watch the game.

853
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:57,799
Speaker 2: They also can't They only can score from two or

854
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: the line. They never shoot grease. So it's like, you know,

855
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 2: if you look at their analytical profile, they're number one

856
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 2: in the nation in free throw attempt right on defense,

857
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 2: they're number three hundred and sixty two, and so that's

858
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 2: they're going to get to the line of ton their

859
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:20,319
Speaker 2: opponent's going to get the line to the time. They

860
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 2: force a lot of turnovers. They never shoot threes, and

861
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 2: when they shoot twos, they're not very good at it.

862
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 2: But if they're getting in the line and forcing turnovers,

863
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 2: Billy Gillespie's squad has has some juice. Yeah, they're they're

864
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 2: an interesting team. Their path would be Rio Grand, which has.

865
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 3: Seventy two free throws. Last game between the two when

866
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 3: they made it.

867
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:47,760
Speaker 2: They got swept. They got swept by Rio Grand.

868
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:51,720
Speaker 3: They're Tougho Grand fouls like nobody's business and can't handle

869
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 3: the ball. It's like a perfect Charleton matchup.

870
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 2: Rio Grand is second in the nation in free throw

871
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 2: attempt three. So that's the first round matchup. You have

872
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 2: Charleton's number one in the country and Rio Grand's number

873
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 2: two tar and then Rio Grand's number three thirty. I

874
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:10,280
Speaker 2: think in defensive yeah, there's going to be a trillion

875
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:13,240
Speaker 2: free throws in that game, but Charlot he got swept

876
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 2: by Rio Grand. Both were really really close, and then

877
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 2: they'd have to play Utah Valley.

878
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 3: Yeah.

879
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 2: I guess they could be an intriguing long shot, but

880
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 2: it's hard to see them with the way that they

881
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,839
Speaker 2: play winning. I mean, Rio Grand, I don't know how

882
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 2: did Rio Grand sweep them? They because you're a good

883
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 2: turns it over all the time. Charleton swept.

884
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 3: Oh did real Grand? Sweet Charleton? Wow? Yeah, I missed that.

885
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:42,720
Speaker 3: I'm shot. Yeah they did. Man. I thought thought Charleston

886
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 3: was a great matchup for him, but they did. They did.

887
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 2: Ready, you want to hear the first So Rio Grand

888
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 2: just beat Tarleton ninety nine to ninety five. This is

889
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 2: February twenty fifth, in overtime. Charleton finished the game one

890
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 2: of eleven from three. Game went to overtime. He was

891
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 2: in the nineties. One of eleven from three. Yeah, and

892
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 2: then the first meeting they shot thirteen four or thirteen

893
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 2: from three. Yeah. It's just there's gonna be a ton

894
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 2: of free throws. So I would think theoretically, I'm gonna

895
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 2: let's see, Yeah, Tarleton's probably gonna be like a four

896
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,800
Speaker 2: or five point favorite throats. It's tough to lay points

897
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 2: with them. But Rio Grand there's a ton of possessions

898
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 2: because they just want to play so fat. I might

899
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 2: look Tarleton did that first matchup against Rio Grand, and

900
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 2: then they might have something. I like them as a dog.

901
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 2: I like Tarleton as a dog.

902
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 3: More so the better dog, much better dog.

903
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 2: Maybe a good money one parlay piece on Wednesday. So yeah,

904
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 2: I think we're on the same patriot. Sam Houston is

905
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 2: very good. They're playing very well, but there's just I mean,

906
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 2: it's probably one of as far as like when I

907
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:51,440
Speaker 2: just compare my probability to the actual odds plus one twenty.

908
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,440
Speaker 2: Come on, do not bet that if you like Sam

909
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 2: Houston you'll get better odds if you if you bet

910
00:47:56,400 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 2: them with a moneyline. Rover always remember to that. So yeah,

911
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 2: I think I would agree with you. I think that

912
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: it's what do we say, Utah value eight to one?

913
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 2: You can find Southern Utah so the new timing excuse me,

914
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 2: Southern Utah eight one?

915
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty good. We didn't talk about Stephen F. Austin.

916
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 3: Clearly they're usually a team that does pretty well in

917
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:19,399
Speaker 3: these tournaments. Southland Whack another kind of helter skelter team.

918
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 3: Eleven to one, four games, four games in four days.

919
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 3: Maybe think about it, but I prefer Southern Utah.

920
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:31,720
Speaker 2: Yes, Steven F. Austin. Let's see, their path would be Utahs.

921
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,319
Speaker 2: I'd see the turns it over time, they force a

922
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 2: ton of turnovers. They want to play fast, they get

923
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 2: to the line a ton. They you know, it's a

924
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 2: they want to heavy pressure team. They do have a

925
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 2: deep bench. They go deep, which is good here. They

926
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 2: don't shoot any threes, but they're good when they do.

927
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 2: They took they played Sam Houston very tough both times.

928
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 2: With Sam Houston is on the other side of the bracket,

929
00:48:55,000 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 2: their path would be Utah Tech. I think they if

930
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:05,920
Speaker 2: they beat Utah Tech pretty handily when they Yeah, when

931
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 2: they play they should force a ton of turnovers in

932
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:09,919
Speaker 2: that game, so that's a pretty good matchup for them.

933
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:15,800
Speaker 2: Then they would play Southern Utah. Say they lost by nine,

934
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:20,440
Speaker 2: and I think that was their only meeting Southern Utah.

935
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:23,240
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't I don't hate Steven F. Austin

936
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 2: as a long shot. Something just seems off with them

937
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 2: to me. Yeah, this is a really tough conference to crack,

938
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 2: but the one seed I just don't think has any value.

939
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 2: So if you want to take a shot you mentioned Seattle,

940
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:41,479
Speaker 2: I think Southern Utah probably has the most value given

941
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 2: their talent level. How about grant any thoughts on Grand Canyon.

942
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 3: I don't love them just because of the black Shair injury.

943
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 3: You know, they've played okay without him, but in a

944
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 3: tournament setting, you know, same odds as Seattle, and they're

945
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 3: gonna get past their first round opponent. I think U T.

946
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 3: Arlington not not too scared of them, but I think

947
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 3: Seattle is just as good and they had to play

948
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 3: one less game, So prefer the RedHawks.

949
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, they would have been Grand Canyon would have been

950
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 2: a super interesting team At Blacks. You're not gotten hurt.

951
00:50:12,080 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 2: They pretty much need like Ray Arison to go here

952
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 2: ball now, and that's going to be a tough ask

953
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 2: for four games and what five I think this is

954
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 2: four games in five days. So yeah, I agree with you.

955
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 2: That pretty much put their season to bed. All right,

956
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 2: good stuff. That wraps up the Big East, the Mountain West,

957
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 2: the Whack, and the Big West. I think we're on

958
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 2: the same page that Mountain West, Whack, and Big West.

959
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 2: Those favorites just have no value and way over priced.

960
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 2: So there's opportunities to attack maybe one step below, and

961
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:54,759
Speaker 2: then in the case of like the Mountain West, if

962
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 2: you want to take a shot with a New Mexico

963
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 2: or UNLV and then in the Big East. I think

964
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 2: it's the opposite. I think, actually Yukon, with the weight

965
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 2: that they're playing over the past month, that they actually,

966
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 2: I actually show some value. They're basically priced the same

967
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:10,759
Speaker 2: as Marquette, which I disagree with. So I show a

968
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 2: little bit of value on Yukon and then on the

969
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 2: same token because I think Marquette is overvalued and and

970
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 2: by the way, Villanova is awfully priced, so you might

971
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 2: want to attack if you want to play them money

972
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 2: line rollover. If you want to attack them on the

973
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 2: bottom half. I can see that. Because Marquette is I

974
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 2: think overvalue, that makes Yukon even more valuable. But if

975
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 2: you want to just say look, because I don't think

976
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 2: the Johnny's can make a run. But if you want

977
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 2: to say Providence could put one effort together against Yukon,

978
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 2: because the Johnny's can certainly win two games and beat Marquette,

979
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 2: then then that Providence fifteen to one picket will look

980
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 2: super juicy. You've seen coolly make a run there before

981
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 2: Any final thoughts on any of the turns that we

982
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 2: talked about.

983
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 3: No, I'm just excited to watch. I think the whack

984
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 3: the Big West is going to be highly competed. Hope

985
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 3: we get some great games.

986
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, we will make sure you tune in to two

987
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 2: other conference tournament previews. I'll be doing one with mister

988
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 2: Jim Root later tonight. We'll be covering four conferences, and

989
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 2: then another one tomorrow morning, which will be out in

990
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 2: the afternoon on Monday, covering I think, like six others.

991
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 2: I do have to ask you before you go. I'll

992
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 2: put you on the spot if you need to dig

993
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: for twenty seconds. Is there any future could be not

994
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:33,840
Speaker 2: just not a conference that we talked about, could be

995
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 2: a national title future, or it could be going on

996
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 2: right now, any other future that you think is worth mentioning.

997
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 3: All right, let's see here. I'm gonna dig for a

998
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 3: Natty title future. See. The problem is that I think

999
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 3: UCLA is a real, real contender for the title this season.

1000
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 3: I don't know if you can find better than nine

1001
00:52:57,680 --> 00:52:59,719
Speaker 3: to one, that's what I'm seeing here. If you can

1002
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 3: find ten to one are better, I think they're a

1003
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:04,479
Speaker 3: really good bet. I'm just super impressed by this team.

1004
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:07,680
Speaker 3: They have basically every single ingredient I'm looking for in

1005
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 3: a champion, So I'm looking for the Bruins.

1006
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:13,959
Speaker 2: If you could find yukon twenty to one, like I said,

1007
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:16,880
Speaker 2: they're the number one team over the past month, or Torvick,

1008
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:19,439
Speaker 2: ye'd be pretty intriguing, right.

1009
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 3: I am investing them already for some twenty six to one.

1010
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 3: I think I got it earlier this season, but yeah,

1011
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:27,879
Speaker 3: twenty one is still out there at some places. Yeah,

1012
00:53:28,120 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 3: I would be okay with that. They could get a

1013
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 3: three seed. Still, they're on the four line I think

1014
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 3: right now, but a three seed is very possible.

1015
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have some twenty three to one. I might

1016
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 2: add a little bit on twenty to one with the

1017
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 2: way that they're trending. If you had all right, so

1018
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 2: you didn't get a conference turn, the Futures'll ask you

1019
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 2: one other questions. If you had a ride with three

1020
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 2: teams going into the dance. I think I asked Jim

1021
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 2: this on our Big Bets on Campus Live show, which

1022
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:52,880
Speaker 2: we will have another episode on Tuesday morning. If you

1023
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 2: had a ride with just three teams in the dance,

1024
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 2: you don't know where they're going to be seated as

1025
00:53:56,560 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 2: of right now. If you have if you get one

1026
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:01,800
Speaker 2: of the winners a million dollars, you don't risk anything.

1027
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 2: You're taking Ucla. I take it as one.

1028
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 3: Taking Ucla taking Houston. I think they have a great

1029
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 3: formula as well to get to the final four man

1030
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 3: third one Kansas for me, Bill Self fifteen Q one wins.

1031
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 3: I mean they've kind of proven it over and over again.

1032
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:23,359
Speaker 2: Can't go wrong rolling with mister self. All right. There

1033
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:25,399
Speaker 2: you have it. The one and only comic que Tanks

1034
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 2: for joining me texts to all of you for listening.

1035
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 2: Thanks to our audio and video teams on the back end.

1036
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe on subscribe subscribe to tell a friend,

1037
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:36,759
Speaker 2: telling enemy, leave a review. Well, we'll do giveaways next week.

1038
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:38,840
Speaker 2: I think by the time you hear this, we'll be

1039
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 2: choosing the winner who's going to share our future's portfolio.

1040
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 2: Come the dance. The madness is here. It's already started

1041
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:52,360
Speaker 2: and it's not gonna stop. It's basically NonStop college basketball

1042
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 2: through next Sunday night and then it's Selection Sunday. We'll

1043
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:58,319
Speaker 2: have a ton of content. Enjoy the madness. It's the

1044
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 2: best time of the year, Christmas, thanks for listening and

1045
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 2: we'll catch all out of cheers.

1046
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1047
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1048
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler