1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:04,760 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also. 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: All right, here we go from the test throwing out 3 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: job spect. We're saying it's a cash to stop. 4 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they 5 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 2: go to wind. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to 8 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: and we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast 9 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:41,480 Speaker 1: presented by bet MGM. I am your host, Brandon Anderson 10 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 1: filling in today as host for Brandon Glachen. He missed 11 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: his one Picky gave out the season, so he's out 12 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: of here now. He's just out looking for Patriots new quarterback. 13 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 3: Uh. 14 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: Either way, you're stuck with me hosting today with my pigs, 15 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: and as usual, we've got a couple of guests here. 16 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 1: Anthony Dubundo is back fresh off a three and zero week, 17 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: and Grant Nefer of Scores and Odds is back three 18 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: to oh the last time Grant was on as well. 19 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: No pressure for me with these undefeated guys coming on here. 20 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: Get into our Week thirteen NFL Best Bets. We went 21 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 1: five and five last week. In Week twelve, we would 22 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 1: have been over five hundred no thanks to Glas Sheen 23 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: for the missing pick. But we are now on seven 24 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 1: straight weeks. Five hundred are better all in with look 25 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:29,919 Speaker 1: Aheads sixty one and fifty seven on the season. So 26 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: let's jump into the new week. The Bundo three to 27 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 1: oh last week's We'll letting him lead off the show, 28 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: the big game on the slate, the best team in 29 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: football and the Eagles in the same game. Unbelievable forty 30 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: nine ers Eagles what he got? 31 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I've thought a lot about this game 32 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 4: and kind of how to go into the fact that 33 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 4: the Eagles are not getting any market respect right and 34 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 4: if you look at our Action Network luck rankings, they're 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 4: there the second luckiest team in the NFL. If you 36 00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 4: look at the yardage differential, they've been outgained by one 37 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 4: hundred plus yards. If you listened to last week's show, 38 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 4: then you know I came on and gave a pretty 39 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,279 Speaker 4: passion to Ran about how I felt that the Eagles 40 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 4: were overvalued in Buffalo, was going to give them a 41 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 4: lot of problems. I still think all of those things 42 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 4: about the Eagles. My opinion of them has not changed 43 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 4: in the last week since we did this show just 44 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 4: before Thanksgiving and San Francisco is operating at an even 45 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,679 Speaker 4: higher level than Buffalo right now. San Francisco comes into 46 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 4: this game on the extra rest with the ten days 47 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 4: off because they played on Thanksgiving. 48 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: They had a very routine win. 49 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 4: You look at Philadelphia, their defense was on the field 50 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 4: for ninety five plays against Buffalo and Josh Allen in 51 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 4: the bad weather, they went to overtime, very physical game, 52 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 4: really an all in spot for them. Now they have 53 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 4: to on a normal rest week. They're not traveling. But 54 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 4: with the injuries that have piled up for this defense, 55 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 4: Zach Cunningham is out, Fletcher Cox has banged up. The 56 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 4: corners have still not been playing well. I am targeting 57 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 4: San Francisco on the team total over twenty four and 58 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 4: a half as opposed to laying the two and a 59 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 4: half three here because I do think the Eagles can 60 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 4: have some success offense throwing the ball down the field 61 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 4: against these corners. I think you can find success there. 62 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 4: Even though this Eagles offense has not been at its 63 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 4: peak this season, They've still been a pretty efficient offense, 64 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 4: and just the power of having those first and nines 65 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 4: is so critical for their offense. But I think when 66 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 4: you look at the other side of this matchup. The 67 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 4: Eagles secondary continues to be overvalued by the market. I've 68 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 4: been playing a lot of team totals against them, and 69 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 4: they've played these good offenses. And it's as simple as 70 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 4: this in Brock Party, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel. When this 71 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 4: team is healthy, they pretty much score twenty seven a game. 72 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 4: This is the finest form you've ever seen from the 73 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:37,559 Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan offense. They don't really have a clear weakness, 74 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 4: you know. The biggest thing you could say is, okay, 75 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 4: the O line doesn't look as great on paper this year, 76 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 4: and some of their underlying metrics are a little concerning. 77 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 4: But then you've got Brock Purty, who's averaging over seven 78 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 4: yards per an attempt this year when under pressure. So 79 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 4: even when teams have gotten close to Purty, they have 80 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 4: not really slowed down this offense at all. So they've 81 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 4: scored twenty seven or more in just about every game 82 00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 4: that they've been healthy. Most of the time it's north 83 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 4: of we're getting a twenty four and a half here. 84 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 4: I think it's just a little bit too low. I think, 85 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 4: no matter whether it's close or not, San Francisco's gonna score, 86 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 4: and it's gonna be up to Philly whether or not 87 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 4: they can keep up. And given you know just how 88 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 4: exhausted this defense could be, I think it's gonna be 89 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 4: very hard for them to match up with the Niners. 90 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 4: So give me the San Francisco team toll over twenty 91 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 4: four and a half is my best bet of this 92 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 4: week and the bet for the Classic I'm hoping we 93 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 4: get on Sunday afternoon. 94 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: All right, well, I am actually on this Niners game 95 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: as well, so I'm gonna jump in with my first 96 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: pick here. A huge game obviously from Aaron Shotts. The 97 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 1: chances of the one seed here. If Philadelphia wins, they're 98 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: at eighty five percent to win the one seed. The 99 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 1: Niners dropped a four percent. If the Niners win, they 100 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 1: go to forty nine percent one seed Eagles dropped to 101 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. So it's a huge leverage game if 102 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: you're thinking about futures. Is a huge spot here as well, 103 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: because obviously you want that one seed the bye week, 104 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: the home game hopefully in the NFC Championship as it 105 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: lines up, And I'm really in lock set with what 106 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: you said to Bundo, except I'm just gonna go ahead 107 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: and take the points here with the Niners. I'll lay 108 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: the two and a half hopefully if you can get 109 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 1: it three if necessary. And I just think this is 110 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: a Niners team that not only is better than the Eagles, 111 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: but I love this matchup for San Francisco too. So 112 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: a couple of points. What you said to with the 113 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: Eagles being a bit overvalued. They're number two in our 114 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: luck rankings right now. They're seven and one in one 115 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: score games. Five of those games have come against teams 116 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: five hundred or worse. So if you keep playing teams 117 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: that are five hundred or worse, I know the popular 118 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: store right now is winning DNA and winning culture and 119 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 1: we get the job done. Well, yeah, it's great that 120 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,359 Speaker 1: you get the job done, but you shouldn't be playing 121 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: one score games against teams five hundred and worse like that. 122 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: That tells us more than winning the coin flip game 123 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: at the end. Four straight games, the Eagles have been 124 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: out gained by at least ninety eight yards. They won 125 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: them all anyway. They trailed at halftime in all four, 126 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 1: they won them all anyway. So maybe that's just setting 127 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: up myself here for failure. But to me, you guys know, 128 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: I'm on trends and all that kind of stuff. This 129 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: is not a trend spot for me. This is just 130 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 1: surely a matchup read Debunda. You talked about all the 131 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: offensive advantages here, Shanahan, I think unlocks the middle of 132 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 1: the field offensively as well as pretty much any system 133 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: in football. That's where the Eagles are specifically built on 134 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 1: purpose to be weak, like you can't do everything defensively. 135 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 1: They purposefully kind of gave up on building linebackers out 136 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: to invest elsewhere into the team. And now, like you said, 137 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 1: Zach Cunningham may not play anyways. So I think we 138 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: see a lot of twenty one personnel, twenty two personnel, 139 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: get multiple backs on the field, attack the linebackers. Eagles 140 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: are dead last DVA against tight end. I think George 141 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: Kittle has a monster game here again, attack the middle 142 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: of the field. Niners are number one offensively for the 143 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: season DVWA, but they're also number one early downs. The 144 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: Eagles defense is twenty second on early downs. So I 145 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,280 Speaker 1: think that sets up for really rough script for the 146 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:59,359 Speaker 1: Eagles here, where the Niners just keep getting second and 147 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: five and four, just you know, just keep moving the chains, 148 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: controlling the clock, honestly doing the thing that we expect 149 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: the Eagles to do from we saw a lot of 150 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: last year. I just think that that's the Niners right now, 151 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: and I'm not so worried about the other side of 152 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: the ball again, middle of the field. The Eagles want 153 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: to run the ball, do their thing. Fred Warner, Dray Greenlow. 154 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: The Niners have built themselves to stop the middle of 155 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: the field, like they're the team that you'd want to 156 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: build to stop the Niners offensive attack. And I think 157 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: that is built well to stop what the Eagles do well. 158 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 1: Lane Johnson, we don't know necessarily how good he'll be 159 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: able to go. He's huge on the offensive line, and honestly, 160 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: I think because the Eagles are so good this year, 161 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: and because they're so good last year, it's easy to 162 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: just equate to them as the same team and that 163 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: they're doing the same stuff. But the rushing attack that 164 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: we're counting on to to push the Niners here just 165 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: hasn't been as strong this year for Philly as it 166 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 1: was before, and even worse if Lane Johnson's not necessarily 167 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: at top form. So I think this is the one 168 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: the Niners a way to four all season. They never 169 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: really had a chance in the playoffs last year with 170 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: all the QB injuries. I of course want the two 171 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: and a half. You can get it. I don't mind 172 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: the three. I don't think the Niners just win this. 173 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: I honestly think they exposed the Eagles a little bit 174 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 1: here and I will probably play some alts. I will 175 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: be on the Niners big. I will take the Niners 176 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: minus two and a half. So that's the big game 177 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: this week. I am excited for it. And from the 178 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: Niners game, we're gonna go to a much less exciting game, 179 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: but a good way to win some money. On the Titans. 180 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: Grant Neefer three and zero off your last appearance here, 181 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: I know you rock the props. You got a prop 182 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: on the Titans this week? 183 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm going with will lettuce under two hundred 184 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 2: and seventeen point five passing yards numbers just a little 185 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 2: bit too high. And I mean I've been on it's 186 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 2: under pretty much since Week one, when everyone's like, oh, 187 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 2: this could be the next great QB we see in 188 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 2: the league. Again, it's been very clear the last three 189 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 2: weeks that he's not that guy yet. I mean he 190 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 2: reminds me a lot of Josh Allen like, not real 191 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 2: refined eats. A little bit of time could be good. 192 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 2: I'm not saying he's not gonna be a good Kip 193 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 2: in the future, but this is not the spot. For one, 194 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 2: he's not that good. For two, and even if he 195 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 2: was good, that O line really is not great. He's 196 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 2: being hit at a pretty heavy rate. They rely heavily 197 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 2: on the run. There is a spot where they're probably 198 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 2: going to do that again. We saw it last week 199 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 2: with Carolina and wanted to rely heavily on the run 200 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 2: with Derrick Henry going up against a bad run defense 201 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 2: in a much better pass defense. Well, this week, Colts 202 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 2: twenty fourth and DBA run D tenth and pass D 203 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 2: they spread is sitting at one and a half and 204 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 2: Derrick Henry, the amount of carries he gets is substantially 205 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 2: higher in games where they're close or they win so 206 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 2: decent chance that they end up winning this Derrick Henry 207 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 2: tends to get better and more volume as the season 208 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 2: goes on every single year. We still don't exactly know why, 209 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 2: but December is a thing. So Henry gonna be relied 210 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 2: on very heavily in this spot. Levis has hit the 211 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 2: under in each of the last three games. Again, everything 212 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 2: in the game script points towards this and the fact 213 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 2: that this number is over two hundred when he hasn't 214 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 2: had over two hundred since the first two weeks he played. 215 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,199 Speaker 2: It just doesn't really make sense to me in those 216 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 2: first two weeks, Like you go back and you actually 217 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 2: watch the film, he should not have had those numbers. 218 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 2: It was just a weird fluke throwing a lot at 219 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 2: the end of the Pittsburgh game, a few lucky throws. 220 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 2: In the Atlanta game, it missed pass interference on Hopkins. 221 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 2: So it just people going off for the first two 222 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 2: games really shouldn't be the last three games. Is what 223 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 2: he is, and this offense is not one that is 224 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 2: meant for a QB to succeed anyways. So I'm rolling 225 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 2: with his under. 226 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense too. 227 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: You know, the Colts Gus Bradley. I've given a lot 228 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: of Gus Bradley slander over the years, But the one 229 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 1: thing that his defense is built for is take away 230 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: the deep ball, and that's like the one thing that 231 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: Levis has been successful at is dialing up the big 232 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 1: shot down the field, so I believe too. I think 233 00:10:56,760 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: this is Grover's Grover Stewart's last week suspended, so that 234 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: also hurts the Colts run and run defense sets up 235 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 1: like you said more Derrick Henry, hopefully a little less 236 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: will Levis So I like that. 237 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 5: Under the Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. 238 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 5: Use bonus code Action when signing up to get up 239 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,559 Speaker 5: to fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if 240 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 5: your first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 241 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 5: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania. 242 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 3: Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. 243 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 3: Must be twenty one or older. Gambling problem called one 244 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 3: eight hundred gambler, dabundo, you're up for your second pick? 245 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, Colts corner is also not great, but the Titans 246 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 4: receivers might be worse. So at top top spot for Tennessee. 247 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 4: There offensively in the air. I'm going to go with 248 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 4: the Los Angeles Rams minus three and a half are 249 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 4: the Rams turning a corner. Kien Williams is back. He's 250 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:55,319 Speaker 4: been the best running back in the NFL this year 251 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 4: by success rat He's really unlocked this offense. And I 252 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:00,959 Speaker 4: know what the DVOA member say, I know what the 253 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 4: EPA numbers say about this Brown's defense. But if Miles 254 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 4: Garrett found one hundred percent, I think this defense starts 255 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 4: to look a whole lot different. And we saw that 256 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 4: in the second half against Denver yesterday last week, where 257 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 4: you know, Garrett said he felt a pop in his shoulder. 258 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 4: He didn't practice on Wednesday. He's going to try to 259 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 4: play through the pain. But if he's fifty percent sixty 260 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 4: not one hundred percent effective, that dramatically changes how effective 261 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 4: this defense is going to be. And I think against 262 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 4: a top pocket passer like Stafford, who's got his full 263 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 4: complement of weapons healthy, it is a nightmare, nightmare matchup. 264 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 4: And look, I had to pull up the injury report 265 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,319 Speaker 4: for the Browns. It is stunningly long. Of how many 266 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 4: people they have, uh, you know, on the list right now. 267 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 4: Amari Cooper didn't practice Wednesday, Garrett of course, DNP good Win, 268 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 4: Kareem Hunt, David and Joku all did not practice. They've 269 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 4: got a bunch of offensive line question marks. Their secondary 270 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:55,839 Speaker 4: Denzo Ward did not practice again after he missed last week, 271 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 4: and he was a pretty big loss for them in 272 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 4: the game against Denver. Like we are basic this defense 273 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 4: off of pass performance, I think going forward, given how 274 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 4: banged up they are and given how tough of a 275 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 4: spot this is, they may not live up to that 276 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 4: and we may get some Joe Flacco offense here. Look, 277 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 4: I know that Dorian Thompson Robinson is not great, but 278 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 4: you compare him to Joe flaccol off the street, I'm 279 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 4: not sure it's an upgrade. I don't know. There's a 280 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,560 Speaker 4: lot of uncertainty, but the Joe Flacco we saw last 281 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 4: season did not look like somebody who was gonna be 282 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 4: playing in the NFL and starting in a playoff race. 283 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,319 Speaker 4: So I think the Rams here are quickly improving. I 284 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 4: think the Browns are overvalued because of their defense, which 285 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 4: got exposed a little bit last week, and I think 286 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 4: could get exposed going forward as these injuries continue to mount. 287 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 4: And so I like the Rams minus three and a 288 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 4: half and think they are certainly live to make playoffs 289 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 4: in this NFC, which is all of a sudden become 290 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 4: wide open with Seattle and Minnesota starting to falter in 291 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 4: those wild card spots. 292 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Rams are a lot of fun. Karen Williams 293 00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:01,079 Speaker 1: being back and getting that whole team healthy. Joe Flacco. 294 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 1: I looked up some of the numbers because I was 295 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: going to grill you about who you liked at quarterback. 296 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: Joe Flacco last four seasons three and fourteen straight up 297 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: in the NFL, so bad that the Jets didn't even 298 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 1: want him back, and we see how that's going right now. 299 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 1: I looked at RBSDM to see some of the advanced 300 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: metrics over the last four four years quarterbacks with four 301 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: hundred passing attempts, Flaco ranks fiftieth out of fifty seven 302 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: in EPA plus CPOE. So comparatively quarterbacks that Flacco has 303 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: been a worse than over the last four years, Tyler Huntley, 304 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: Desmond Raider, Carson Wentz, Nick Foles. Those are guys that 305 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 1: rank ahead of Joe Flacco, who I believe now is 306 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: thirty eight and walking out of retirement into maybe starting 307 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: in this game at Dubundo. If you had to pick 308 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: for your bet, rank the quarterbacks PGA, Walker, Joe Flacco, 309 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: dtr Who do you want for your bet here? 310 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 4: I think because of the Browns o line injuries. I 311 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 4: want Flacco because he's walking into a new system. He 312 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 4: doesn't know, you know, it's new, right, Like whereas DTR 313 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 4: and PJ have been with this team, they can run 314 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 4: a little bit. There is no movement for Joe Flecco 315 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 4: in that pocket, like he's just going to be a 316 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 4: sitting duck. And the Rams aren't some dominant pass rush, 317 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 4: but they can get pressure with given just how many 318 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 4: injuries there are for Cleveland. So I think that you 319 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 4: know Stafford, you know, when he started this year, they've still. 320 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: Been a top half pass offense. 321 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 4: And look, I know the Browns is the number one 322 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 4: defense in the NFL. They have certainly not played a 323 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 4: murderer's row of schedules and that's just the any defense 324 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 4: in the NFL show me like this defense is elite, 325 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 4: and I'll just tell you who have they played. And 326 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 4: that's kind of the case for Cleveland. Like Baltimore moved 327 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 4: the ball on them in in you know, the both 328 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 4: meetings against this team, and so you can move the 329 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 4: ball even Indy, you know, move the ball on this team. 330 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 4: So modern defense without Garrett wrecking games, it's just not 331 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 4: the same. So I think if I'm ranking him. I'll 332 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 4: take Flacco one, who I want to see, and then 333 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 4: I'll say d TR two and PJ. 334 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: Walker three. I don't want Peach Debondo fears PJ Locker. 335 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: I like it. I like it. It shows you what the 336 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: options are when it's those three. All right, my second pick, 337 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with a prop here. Give me Najie 338 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: Harris over forty five and a half rushing yards against 339 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: the Cardinals. I continue to think Pittsburgh is a good team, 340 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: or really, in the season, they were not a good team. 341 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 1: They were winning games they shouldn't have. But I think 342 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: we can forget that. You can grow, you can become 343 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: a better team. Last five games, the Steelers are top 344 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: five in DVA, their top eight offense and defense. Their 345 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: top three rushing offense and defense. So running the ball 346 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 1: offensively once they got Broderck Jones in the line, and 347 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: obviously two. Arizona's defense is terrible. They've been so bad 348 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: all year along. Even early in the year when Arizona 349 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: was moving the ball offensively, the defense was still awful. 350 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: Bottom three against the run, bomb three against the pass. 351 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: Matt Canada's gone. I think this could be maybe the 352 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: breakout game. For the Steelers. Arizona is allowed the second 353 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 1: most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If you look 354 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: at just the lead back in games against Arizona this year, 355 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: that lead back averages twenty one carries for ninety seven yards. 356 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,159 Speaker 1: Not necessarily terribly efficient. They're just getting a lot of 357 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: carries because of their head, right, They're just running the 358 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: clock out on the Cardinals. Hey, not efficient, but getting 359 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 1: a lot of carries. Naji Harris, is that your name? 360 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 1: I heard buddy over forty five and a half for 361 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: the lead back against Cardinals all but one game, and 362 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: the only one that missed was twenty carries for forty 363 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 1: four yards, so they missed by two yards. Naji Lea, 364 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 1: like it or not, is the lead back here. I 365 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 1: think it should be Jalen Warren too, but Naji Harris 366 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: has more carries than Warren every single game this season, 367 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 1: including last week, including post Canada. Even the snap count 368 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 1: basically didn't really change there. So I like Naja here 369 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: to get the yards in part because this is really 370 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: a play on I wanted to back the Steelers to 371 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: get the win here. I liked it at minus free 372 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:00,959 Speaker 1: early in the week and then it up to minus 373 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,360 Speaker 1: five and a half minus six. It's a little high. 374 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 1: I think this is a good proxy for Steelers went 375 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 1: In the four Steelers losses, Naji Harris averages under ten 376 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: carries a game, thirty seven yards a game. He's under 377 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: this line in three of the four. In wins, he 378 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: averages fifteen carries for sixty four yards. He's the guy 379 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,199 Speaker 1: that they just give the ball to to run the 380 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,680 Speaker 1: clock out. This is what the Steelers still do. He's 381 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 1: over this line and five of seven wins, and the 382 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: two unders was forty three and thirty seven against Baltimore 383 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: and Cleveland. Tough defenses anyway, which Arizona is not. So 384 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 1: I don't mind if you want to add Pittsburgh money 385 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: line to this one. You can kind of juice the 386 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: number a little bit, since that's basically the angle anyway. 387 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 1: But give me Naji Harris over forty five and a 388 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 1: half rushing yards for this one. All right, Grant, we 389 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: had just talked about the Rams as an interesting NFC 390 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: sleeper wild card candidate. I think the Packers are another 391 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 1: interesting sleeper candidate. And you're going to the Packers games 392 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: Sunday night for your second pick. 393 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, at this point, can we just blindly 394 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 2: bet primetime unders. I'm fairly certain I can at this point. 395 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 2: I actually am. But two of the main things that 396 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 2: have pretty much been blindly betting for most of the 397 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 2: season are Primetime unders and Chiefs unders. And look we 398 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 2: got both of them at the same time. 399 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 5: Yeah. 400 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 2: Primetime unders have been just fantastic this season, hitting about 401 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 2: seventy five percent clip, and it's been even better I 402 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 2: think on Sunday and Monday Night unders this season. The Chiefs, 403 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 2: they are not the same team they have been in 404 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 2: the past. They are not even remotely close. They're scoring 405 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 2: down drastical this year, just averaging twenty three point three 406 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 2: points per game. Their defense has been incredible this season, 407 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 2: aging just sixteen point five points allowed per game. They're 408 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 2: one of the best defenses in the league. Green Bay 409 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:57,360 Speaker 2: on the other side, mediocre offense and a good defense, 410 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 2: allowing twenty point four points per game. I get that 411 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 2: the total is kind of low at forty two and 412 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 2: a half, but I still don't think it's low enough, 413 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 2: especially for a primetime game. I'm not sure it would 414 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 2: be low enough for a normal game. I'm betting the 415 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 2: trend here. I am betting the trend that primetime games 416 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:19,360 Speaker 2: go under and at Kansas City their offense way overvalued, 417 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 2: their defense way undervalued. The public always assumes that Patrick 418 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 2: Mahomes going to put up a bunch of points. That's 419 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,239 Speaker 2: not the case anymore. Last week was the first time 420 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 2: they scored in the second half. I think in the 421 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,399 Speaker 2: last four weeks they're not the same team. They may 422 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 2: get it right at some point, but this defense is 423 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 2: for real and this offense is just middle of the pack. 424 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,919 Speaker 1: Now, Chiefs unders eight and the three now on the 425 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: season second half under a perfect eleven. To Zher, you 426 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: mentioned the primetime unders heading into Thursday night. As we 427 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 1: record this, primetime unders twenty nine and nine on the season, 428 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 1: seventy six percent hit rate, So those continue to cash 429 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 1: for us. Dabundo, our resident cheese had a resident Packers backer. 430 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: You're on this game too. 431 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,719 Speaker 4: I am, and I love Jordan Love. That's my go 432 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 4: to line nowadays. And look, if you remember back in 433 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 4: Week eight when I bet the Green Bay Packers, I said, look, 434 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 4: I haven't really seen much of the Packers this year. 435 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 4: I think the market's a little bit short on them, 436 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 4: and I was wrong. I mean, they got destroyed by 437 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,880 Speaker 4: Minnesota and were never really in that game. But since then, 438 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 4: Jordan Love and this offense have really sorted some things 439 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 4: out and they've been playing at an elite level. 440 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 1: Jordan Love since. 441 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 4: Week eight, top five in EPA plus CPOE composite adjusted 442 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,400 Speaker 4: EPA per play, And the CPOE thing is especially interesting 443 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 4: to me just because of what his scouting report was, 444 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 4: and it was a guy who wasn't particularly accurate in 445 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 4: the pocket and just had a big arm, and his 446 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 4: mechanics were pretty mediocre, and if you watched him early 447 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,639 Speaker 4: in the season, you saw some of those leaky mechanics 448 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 4: and bad habits. But I think he's played three of 449 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 4: his four best games of his life in the last month, 450 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 4: and I think that's a real progression. I think the 451 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 4: market is still catching up to how improved Green Bay is. 452 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 4: And also the injury report is really interesting to watch here. 453 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 4: They didn't have Jaire, Alexander, Devondre Campbell, Rudy Ford on 454 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 4: Thanksgiving against Detroit. Their defense still held up, but based 455 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 4: on the projections here, I mean Jaire was limited on 456 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 4: Wednesday and Thursday, Devondre Campbell both limited, as was Rudy 457 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 4: Ford and AJ Dillon Kenny Clark as well. 458 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 1: So All of these guys who hadn't. 459 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,439 Speaker 4: Really played Dylan did play on Thanksgiving, all now limited 460 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 4: in practice, so they're trending toward potentially coming back here 461 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 4: full participant for Darnell Savage as well this week. So 462 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 4: I do think this Green Bay defense is getting healthier. 463 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,479 Speaker 4: They're an above average pass coverage unit. The Chiefs can 464 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 4: absolutely have success running the ball. That's the weakest of 465 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 4: the Green Bay defense. But look, I'm catching six here. 466 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 4: If the Chiefs want to take the ball out of 467 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 4: Pat Mahomes hands and run the ball and grind out 468 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 4: a win, that's fine with me. I will feel very 469 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 4: good about my plus six. And I understand that Love 470 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 4: is kind of picked on two really bad defenses playing 471 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 4: the Chargers and the Lions back to back, But I 472 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 4: think there's real improvement in his play, and it's not 473 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,920 Speaker 4: just the fact they played some bad defenses. He made 474 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 4: some throws in those last couple of games, and he 475 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 4: was just not making early in the season. 476 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 1: So I think the. 477 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 4: Market's still catching up to Green Bay like them plus six. 478 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 4: And yeah, grant to your point about the unders Andy 479 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:18,640 Speaker 4: Reid Chiefs second half unders this year eleven and oh, 480 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 4: I've just been blind betting them for about a month now, 481 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 4: and it's it's a fun time. We had to sweat 482 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,199 Speaker 4: for the first time in a while last week and 483 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 4: they got a big holding penalty and had to kick 484 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 4: a field goal. So yeah, Chiefs second half unders continue 485 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 4: to be money printers. I think green Bay stays in 486 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 4: this game and the Packers plus six bump better up, 487 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 4: better Up, Bump Go pack Go. 488 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 1: Got a little music to finish that one off, dubundo. 489 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 1: How many cheap? How many Packers bets? Do you need 490 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:46,679 Speaker 1: a cash on this podcast before we get you to 491 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 1: wear an actual cheese hat on a podcast here? Uh? 492 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 4: If they win this weekend, I will order one, all right, 493 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 4: I like the cover. This weekend, I will order a 494 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 4: cheese head. I may only have one or two more spots, 495 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 4: and looking at the schedule, not sure how much I'm 496 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 4: gonna be backing the Packers because the market may quickly 497 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 4: catch up to them. 498 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 1: But they've got the. 499 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:13,400 Speaker 4: Giants, the Bucks, the Panthers at Minnesota home green Bay 500 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 4: to end this their home Chicago to end the season, 501 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,679 Speaker 4: So some really bad teams coming in, so maybe, I mean, 502 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 4: if they they're able to steal this game, I think 503 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 4: they'd be also in that race, and I would much 504 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 4: rather see Green Bay or LA in those playoff spots 505 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 4: over Seattle and Minnesota given the situations both those teams. 506 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 4: Right now, as as a fan of football, yeah, as 507 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,440 Speaker 4: somebody that has to watch the games, certainly seeing green 508 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 4: Bay in LA are a lot more interesting there. 509 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 1: Even as a Vikings fan, I can admit that right now, 510 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,640 Speaker 1: even before this game, even with the Packers' obvious underdogs here, 511 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: green Bay at FTN is better than fifty percent to 512 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 1: make the playoffs. That's that's where we've gotten to in 513 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 1: the NFL, even though green Bay is still sub five 514 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 1: hundred for the season. Speaking of sub five hundred for 515 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 1: my last pick, I'm going away sub five hundred. I'm 516 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,120 Speaker 1: gonna go to Carolina and I am going to play 517 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 1: another prop here. Give me Adam Thielen over five and 518 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: a half receptions, My guy, Adam thelin from man Cato, Minnesota, 519 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: come off as worst game of the season. One catch 520 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,199 Speaker 1: last week, two yards, three targets. Hopefully we are not 521 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: doing the one two three dance again this week. Before 522 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,440 Speaker 1: last week, feeling that five catches and nine straight games, 523 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,640 Speaker 1: so I think that that bad game is just basically 524 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,479 Speaker 1: buying us a little bit too low of a line here, 525 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 1: five and a half receptions. He's basically in a five 526 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 1: ever game, So we just need one above what's been 527 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 1: his floor until last week, and he's a receptions monster. 528 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: He's the guy getting all the catches here. Tampa Bay 529 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 1: has allowed the most yards to opposing receivers in the NFL. 530 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,720 Speaker 1: They're near top of the league and most receptions allowed, 531 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 1: top five, most two slot receivers, where obviously theeling takes 532 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 1: a lot of the snaps opposing a wide receiver one 533 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay averaging about seven catches a game for 534 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: ninety five yards. So they're over this receptions line eight 535 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 1: of eleven games, and five times we got a nine 536 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 1: catches or more performance. Here's some of the lines, justin 537 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: Jefferson nine for one hundred and fifty, DJ Moore six 538 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 1: for one hundred and four, AJ Brown nine one thirty one, 539 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 1: Almana Rossain Brown twelve catches, one hundred and twenty four yards, 540 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 1: Michael Pittman last week ten for one hundred and seven. 541 00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: So Thielan early in the year was racking up these 542 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: double digit catches games. I don't know if those are 543 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 1: still there. I don't necessarily know what's going to look like. Obviously, 544 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 1: the Panthers fired half the staff this week, so the 545 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: offense will look a little different here. But I like 546 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 1: the spot for Carolina. I strongly consider just taking the 547 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 1: five and a half against Tampa here. Probably would have 548 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,400 Speaker 1: taken it if we still had six or higher. Might 549 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: get there yet. By the way, Carolina is one thousand 550 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: to one to win the division. They're four games back, 551 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 1: and they played the division the next three weeks in ear. 552 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 1: I'm just saying thousand to one is a pretty long number. 553 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: I'll stick with theel in. I put him at about 554 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 1: seven catches clear over the five and a half here, 555 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 1: and we've played the thelin escalator a few times in 556 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: my every game article. I'll do that again to sprinkle 557 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 1: eight catches plus three thirty ten catches is plus ten 558 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 1: to twenty five. But for the pod, the official bet 559 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 1: adam Theelen over five and a half catches and grant 560 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:27,120 Speaker 1: you're on this game and on the Panthers with another over. 561 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,359 Speaker 1: We got two Panthers over is to wrap up our 562 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:30,159 Speaker 1: picks this week. 563 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, betting a Panther's over outside of Felin is 564 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 2: never really a fun one. This is kind of a 565 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 2: fun one here. Miles Sanders over twenty six and a 566 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 2: half rushing yards, So we've seen Sanders role just kind 567 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 2: of go all over the place of season, Like at 568 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 2: this point it's Hubbard's backfield, but it's not fully Hubbard's backfield. 569 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 2: Last two weeks, Sanders fifteen rush attemts, eleven rush attempts, 570 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 2: twenty seven snaps in each one. He's close to He's 571 00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,720 Speaker 2: close to fifty to fifty split in terms of rushing 572 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:04,400 Speaker 2: in ten. Still leaning more towards Hubbard for actual snap rate, 573 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 2: especially last week, but the week before they were close 574 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 2: to fifty to fifty. Doesn't really seem like any reason 575 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 2: why Hubbard has a guy taking over. Like Panthers are 576 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 2: not good, they're not going anywhere, they're not getting even 577 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,879 Speaker 2: getting their pick this year. There's no point in tanking, 578 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 2: there's no point in winning. It's just developing young, hoping 579 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,439 Speaker 2: for the best with that situation and maybe hoping the 580 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 2: Bears don't get the first overall pick. And this is 581 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 2: that was the worst trade of all time. But Sanders 582 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 2: his contract has the next three years, like they just 583 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,440 Speaker 2: signed him in this offseason, no way out of it. Really, 584 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 2: I mean the massive amount of dead cap if they 585 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 2: do anything before the end of next year. After that 586 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 2: there is an ounce, So there's no reason why they 587 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 2: wouldn't be giving him carries. He's had twenty eight and 588 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 2: fifty yards rushing the last two weeks. Again, eleven and 589 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 2: fifteen rushing attempts. If we're expecting ten rushing attempts for 590 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: him at this line, it's an easy, easy over if 591 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 2: we're even expecting seven. Still not really a bad line, 592 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,479 Speaker 2: Like I'm expecting him to get a decent workload. I'm 593 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 2: expecting them to continue to use him more. Have this 594 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 2: be about a fifty to fifty split backfield in terms 595 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 2: of carries. Again, maybe more Snaps or Hubbard, maybe more 596 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 2: use of him in the receiving game, But in the 597 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 2: running game Sanders is gonna be used way more than 598 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 2: this line suggest. I'm rolling with you over. 599 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 4: I do have one question, uh for Brandon about your prop. 600 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 4: Have you been seeing these uncorrelated parlays this year, like 601 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,360 Speaker 4: the you take like if you have a boom er 602 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 4: Bus receiver, you take the under receptions but the overyards 603 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 4: and you get like a crazy payout for like the 604 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 4: same game parlay I'm intrigued for like like an Adam Thielen. 605 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 1: Over reception underyards, but underyards. 606 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 4: I think it's an interesting way to play this if 607 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,120 Speaker 4: they're going to try to turn this offense, like we 608 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 4: don't know what it looks like. Deelan has no explosiveness, 609 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 4: like you're begging on him. Just getting like seven or 610 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 4: eight catches for like thirty five yards? Could you could happen? 611 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 4: So that's one way to play that. Maybe that I'm 612 00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 4: going to look into now because I'm inspired by the handicap. 613 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 4: Also the entire defensive unit for the buses on the 614 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 4: injury report. So that's not a great look for Tampa 615 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 4: this week after they got carved open by Minshew and 616 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 4: Taylor last week. 617 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that idea. The uh it's good to 618 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 1: play basically the uncorrelated picks. What you're saying is that 619 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:19,840 Speaker 1: it used to be you could kind of say, okay, well, 620 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 1: if we're getting the over on receptions, let's put the 621 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 1: over on yards and you get a little more juice 622 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 1: number than you should. And books have obviously corrected for that. 623 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 1: Now with a lot of algorithms to you're gonna sacrifice 624 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 1: some of your number. But the flip side of that 625 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,120 Speaker 1: is if you put the ones that are kind of 626 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 1: opposed to each other, if you get eight catches, then 627 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 1: you should be going over your yardage. But Feeling's eight 628 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 1: catches are going to be so far on like a 629 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 1: bunch of wide receiver screens and five yard button hooks 630 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. I don't mind it. 631 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 1: I would have to look at the number. I will 632 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,440 Speaker 1: say this, certainly, there's a reason I chose receptions not yards, 633 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 1: even though yardage is what Tampa has allowed the most. 634 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 1: Feeling is a catches guy, not a yards guy. So yeah, 635 00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: I'm not sure what the number is that you don't 636 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 1: want to play, but I think that's a nice look 637 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 1: as well. So that will wrap it up for Best 638 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 1: Bets NFL Week thirteen. But of course before we let 639 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 1: you go here got to get to the week fourteen 640 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 1: look ahead. I can't believe Week fourteen already, like I 641 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 1: was gonna do another just win baby teaser here. Steelers 642 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,000 Speaker 1: six and a half at home against the Patriots. Ravens 643 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 1: my seven and a half at home on the by 644 00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:28,640 Speaker 1: against the Rams. Easy, but for the content, give me 645 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: the Cowboys minus two and a half. Sunday night at 646 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 1: home against the Eagles. I'm picking against the Eagles twice 647 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 1: on the same podcast. This matchup is a game that 648 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 1: last year I waited for all season. Having seen the 649 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 1: first matchup, I wanted the rematch in Dallas. We got it, 650 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 1: but not with healthy quarterbacks. Right now, Dak Prescott is 651 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,440 Speaker 1: healthy and he is playing better quarterback than anyone in 652 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 1: the NFL. I have an article up at Action Network 653 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 1: right now talking about his crazy stats three hundred and 654 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 1: twenty yards a game, three and a half touchdowns since 655 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,960 Speaker 1: the bye week, passing over expectation away up and I 656 00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 1: think he's a good bet for MVP for passing yards 657 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 1: and touchdowns leader get the triple crown. Maybe he is 658 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 1: playing phenomenal ball. They're passing last Seedee Lamb has been great, 659 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,720 Speaker 1: and the Eagles secondary isn't good. Like the passing defense 660 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 1: is there for the taking. Dallas probably should have taken 661 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 1: them the last time in Philly, but cut every terrible 662 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,240 Speaker 1: breakdown the stretch. Dak steps out by like an inch 663 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 1: or two down the stretch. All the other things, Dallas 664 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 1: defense is way better than Phillies' defense right now, and 665 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,600 Speaker 1: I think the offense is maybe better than Phillies too. 666 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 1: The way things are trending, Dallas is trending up, Philly 667 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 1: is trending down. Dallas obviously will have played by the 668 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 1: time you listen to this. We're according Thursday. They play 669 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,480 Speaker 1: Thursday night. But again, if I think the Eagles perhaps 670 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,640 Speaker 1: get exposed by the Niners, certainly Cowboys minus two and 671 00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: a half if that's the case, gets to three, maybe 672 00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 1: even pass the key number there. So give me the Cowboys. 673 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 1: Give me. I've been on the island holding the flaming 674 00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: sword the john snow up against all the Eagles fans 675 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,680 Speaker 1: all year, So I mean, just go twice in on them. Dbondo, 676 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,000 Speaker 1: I know you're with me on this one, right, Dallas 677 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 1: minds two and a half next week? 678 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 4: Yep, had the spot circle as well. It's also another 679 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,479 Speaker 4: brutal situation for the Eagles. I mean, the NFL kind 680 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,800 Speaker 4: of screwed the Eagles here with these matchups. 681 00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 5: Right. 682 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 4: They get the Chiefs, Bills, the Niners, and the Cowboys 683 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:32,160 Speaker 4: in four straight games. Not only that, but the Bills 684 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 4: came in pretty well rested. The Niners are going to 685 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 4: play on ten days rest here against the Eagles this Sunday, 686 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:40,719 Speaker 4: and then the Cowboys play Thursday night, so they're going 687 00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 4: to get ten days as well, and we can go 688 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 4: back and look, I mean, you know, the week after 689 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,320 Speaker 4: you play San Francisco has generally not been kind to 690 00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 4: teams in the past, so certainly something to watch. How 691 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,280 Speaker 4: physical the Niners are, how many players are they on 692 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:54,560 Speaker 4: the field this week. I mean, if they have to 693 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 4: play another ninety plays or something of that crazy nature, 694 00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 4: it could get pretty dicey for this defense. So yeah, 695 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,440 Speaker 4: absolutely love Dallas. Think I agree that Prescott's playing at 696 00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 4: an MVP level. The problem with him getting the MVP 697 00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,560 Speaker 4: now is the Eagles are going to probably win the division, 698 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 4: so it's hard for Dak to make that case if 699 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,279 Speaker 4: they finished tied and Philly gets the time breaker, which 700 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 4: I do think is the most likely outcome. So yeah, 701 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 4: I like Dallas as well and think that the Eagles 702 00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,359 Speaker 4: come down to earth a little bit. But still, I mean, 703 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,799 Speaker 4: we're setting up for a really fun three way playoff race. 704 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,760 Speaker 1: Absolutely, it looks looks a lot of fun. Dallas minds 705 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:29,680 Speaker 1: two and a half next week on the look Ahead. 706 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 1: That will do it for the Action Network podcast for 707 00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 1: a week thirteen NFL Best Bets episode presented by Bett MGM. 708 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 1: If you miss the full betting preview the six Pack 709 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 1: with Raybon and Stucky. That episode is now out and 710 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 1: you can tune in for the weekly recap episode Monday 711 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,279 Speaker 1: morning with Jill Gallant Evan Abrams. I make the hot 712 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 1: rate on there as well. Don't forget to download the 713 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:56,880 Speaker 1: free award winning Action Network app to see all the picks. 714 00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,680 Speaker 1: Track your picks there yourself as well the have app, 715 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: and don't forget about the Action Network Discord Server to 716 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 1: chop it up with experts and pillow gamblers while you're 717 00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,680 Speaker 1: watching the games, best of Block and all your bets 718 00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 1: this weekend. We'll see you here next time on the 719 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,759 Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast presented by BETTMGM. 720 00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:35,160 Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 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