WEBVTT - How the Iranian Economy Actually Works

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

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<v Speaker 2>Tracy, it's now July twenty eighth, and the Iran War

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<v Speaker 2>continues to go on. And it's sort of extraordinary the

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<v Speaker 2>fact that, you know, in the beginning here was this

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<v Speaker 2>thing that was going to be if it persisted, sort

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<v Speaker 2>of cataclysmic perhaps for the global economy and particularly related

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<v Speaker 2>to oil prices, and yet on a sort of day

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<v Speaker 2>to day basis, it's not even necessarily the biggest headline

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<v Speaker 2>news that most people are talking about.

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<v Speaker 3>People get used to a lot of things very quickly.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, it still has the potential to be catastrophic

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<v Speaker 3>at some point in time. But you're absolutely right. We've

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<v Speaker 3>gone months now since when did the start in March?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, before beginning of market.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, months now with a war which technically hasn't even

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<v Speaker 3>been declared a war. It's an operation. Is that what

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<v Speaker 3>the military operation?

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's been a long people talk about, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the Forever War. I think the last it's been a

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<v Speaker 2>long time since America actually ever acknowledged that it was

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<v Speaker 2>in a capitol w war.

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<v Speaker 3>Very true, but it does kind of beg the question

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<v Speaker 3>about what happens when all of this is over?

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<v Speaker 1>Right?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 2>Right, I mean hopefully it ends one day. And I

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<v Speaker 2>have to say so, obviously we talk about oil a

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<v Speaker 2>lot when we talk in terms of economics. I have

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<v Speaker 2>to admit, you know, it's funny. We've done multiple episodes

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<v Speaker 2>about the Iranian stock market, which is a fascinating topic.

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<v Speaker 2>But other than the fact that obviously Iran produces a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of oil, I actually like basically know nothing about

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<v Speaker 2>the economy, like the day to day, what a typical

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<v Speaker 2>middle class.

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<v Speaker 3>There's some things I know. So there's oil. Yes, there's

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<v Speaker 3>Iranian cars, famously, which I would be interested in experiencing

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<v Speaker 3>one day, not necessarily buying, but experiencing pistachios.

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<v Speaker 2>I was going to say, so, like pistachios, like nuts,

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<v Speaker 2>I imagine, But like what this sort of job market is,

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<v Speaker 2>what a day to day what's out there and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>whatever the Iranian equivalent of LinkedIn or indeed dot com is,

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<v Speaker 2>Like what people do, what people what people want career wise,

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<v Speaker 2>all of these things. Because there's an Iranian stock market, obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, presumably there are like startups and companies that

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<v Speaker 2>one day want to list, But I don't know what

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<v Speaker 2>any of them do. I have so many questions I

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<v Speaker 2>guess about, like what a quote normal Iranian it's imagined

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<v Speaker 2>the war ends. And also there aren't sanctions, right, what

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<v Speaker 2>would an Iranian?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, this is because at various points in time previously

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<v Speaker 3>you have had these burths of optimism about the opening

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<v Speaker 3>up of the Iranian economy, the lifting of sanctions. It's

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<v Speaker 3>one other thing I know, again not much, but one

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<v Speaker 3>thing I know is it's a huge economy. Right with

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<v Speaker 3>our previous Iranian stock market guest the size of Turkey, right,

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<v Speaker 3>something like that.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a really big economy.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a big economy. And so what happens if that

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<v Speaker 3>starts to open up? Can it open up? Are we

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<v Speaker 3>going to see what happened previously where it kind of

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<v Speaker 3>starts to open up and then it shuts down again.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 2>It was several months ago, Like there was like some

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<v Speaker 2>random night where I was clicking on random Wikipedia links

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<v Speaker 2>and I was like, I wonder what Ahmed de Najad's

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<v Speaker 2>economic policy platform was when he ran for president for

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<v Speaker 2>the first time. I like started clicking out his campaign.

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<v Speaker 2>I was like, I wonder and it was like seemed

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<v Speaker 2>kind of vague, and he had some I wish I.

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<v Speaker 4>Could remember the slogan. It was really good. It was

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<v Speaker 4>something like if we imagined it, we could do it.

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<v Speaker 2>It was like, you know, the most inoffensive sort of

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<v Speaker 2>like domestic policy agenda slogan. And I couldn't really find

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<v Speaker 2>that more specifics. But you know, you have elections, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 4>What are they run on? What do they you know,

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<v Speaker 4>where do they stand on?

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<v Speaker 2>Taxis all these questions about sort of like quote normal

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<v Speaker 2>unquote economic life and Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Is that your way of saying that you want to

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<v Speaker 3>talk about the political economy of around, I want.

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<v Speaker 2>To talk talk about the political economy and the even

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<v Speaker 2>regular economy of Iran. Anyway, I'm very excited to say

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<v Speaker 2>we do, in fact have two perfect guests on who

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<v Speaker 2>will teach us much more about this. We're going to

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<v Speaker 2>be speaking with Jegana Torbodi, Iran correspondent for the New

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<v Speaker 2>York Times, as well as Bisorgham Sheriff Fodding. He's the

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<v Speaker 2>head of Digital at Iran International. So both of you,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you so much for coming on online.

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<v Speaker 5>Thank you so much for having me, Thanks for having us.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, and I should of course have mentioned that they

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<v Speaker 2>are the co authors of a brand new book, Stolen Revolution,

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<v Speaker 2>Betrayal and Hope and Modern Iran. So again, thank you

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<v Speaker 2>both so much for coming out. Why don't we just

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<v Speaker 2>start What is the premise of this book? Why was

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<v Speaker 2>this an important book to write? Or what endeavored do

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<v Speaker 2>you to go on this project?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, well, thank you so much for having us. I mean,

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<v Speaker 5>we started on this project around five and a half

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<v Speaker 5>years ago, so late twenty twenty, and I think our

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<v Speaker 5>vision was at first we were very focused on kind

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<v Speaker 5>of trying and explain as you sort of mentioned, Iran's

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<v Speaker 5>political economy and in particular sort of the roots of

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<v Speaker 5>corruption and sort of state control influence over the economy

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<v Speaker 5>over the past forty fifty years. And then, of course

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<v Speaker 5>as time went on and since twenty twenty, a lot

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<v Speaker 5>of things have happened in Iran and our focus both

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<v Speaker 5>broadened and I think deepened. But sort of throughout our

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<v Speaker 5>book is sort of this continuous thread of the promises

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<v Speaker 5>that the current government, the Islamic government came to power

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<v Speaker 5>on in nineteen seventy nine, particularly around social justice and

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<v Speaker 5>how it might redistribute Iran's really immense resources and sort

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<v Speaker 5>of what that has actually led to in practice today,

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<v Speaker 5>which is far from those promises.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>So you describe the Islamic Republic as evolving into this

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<v Speaker 3>sort of mafia like state, and I guess there's a

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<v Speaker 3>difference between an authoritarian government and a corrupt one, although

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<v Speaker 3>they often go hand in hand. How did Iran kind

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<v Speaker 3>of evolve from the authoritarian Islamic Republic to a place that,

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of it it's economy was actually extracting value

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<v Speaker 3>from its people.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah. I think maybe it's good to define what do

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<v Speaker 6>we mean by a mafia state. What's the difference between

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<v Speaker 6>a mafia state and a normal totalitarian government. I think

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<v Speaker 6>in a normal society, all citizens are equal and they

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<v Speaker 6>benefit the same from the government and the wealth of

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<v Speaker 6>a nation. But in a mafia state, you should imagine

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<v Speaker 6>a layered society and citizens are rewarded based on their

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<v Speaker 6>loyalty to the system. So the more loyal you are

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<v Speaker 6>to the government and the state, the more you will

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<v Speaker 6>benefit from the resources. So that's how the Islamic Republic

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<v Speaker 6>was from the beginning, and it excluded its critics and

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<v Speaker 6>it rewarded people who were loyal and it was an

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<v Speaker 6>ideological government. People who believed in the values of the

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<v Speaker 6>Islamic Republic were rewarded. But as we move forward, we

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<v Speaker 6>see that this trend was reflected more and more in

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<v Speaker 6>the economy. You see that how evolutionary guards and other

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<v Speaker 6>religious foundations they come and take over a big chunks

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<v Speaker 6>of the economy. And I can say that this mafia

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<v Speaker 6>state and the layered society is even reflected in Iran's

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<v Speaker 6>foreign policy. So in the eyes of Iranian state, maybe

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<v Speaker 6>a Hegebolagh member in Lebanon, or who the militia in Yemen,

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<v Speaker 6>they are more loyal to the Islamic Republic than let's

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<v Speaker 6>say a professor at Tehran University, so they should benefit

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<v Speaker 6>more from the wealth of the nation. So that's why

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<v Speaker 6>we have had all these discussions within the Islamic Republic

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<v Speaker 6>that while the Iranian government can't afford to provide free

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<v Speaker 6>milk at schools, it has the money to give to

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<v Speaker 6>its proxies in the region to kind of reward their loyalty.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, maybe I should back up even further at this

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<v Speaker 3>point and ask the Iranian Revolution how much of that

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<v Speaker 3>was about economic grievances on the part of the people,

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<v Speaker 3>the idea that, as so many revolutions are, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>things need to get better, versus just the clergy basically

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<v Speaker 3>seizing power.

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<v Speaker 5>I think it was sort of a mix of a

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<v Speaker 5>few different things. The working classes and sort of the

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<v Speaker 5>lower socioeconomic classes did not really jump in to be

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<v Speaker 5>part of the revolutionary coalition until quite late in the

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<v Speaker 5>game when they really started to suffer from some of

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<v Speaker 5>the Shaw's economic policies, kind of towards the very end.

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<v Speaker 5>Really at the beginning, it was more kind of like

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<v Speaker 5>the middle classes and the intellectuals who were sort of

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<v Speaker 5>forming this kind of revolutionary coalition from a bunch of

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<v Speaker 5>different impulses. There were some who wanted kind of an

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<v Speaker 5>Islamic government. There were others who were communists and were

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<v Speaker 5>kind of more anti us, anti imperialists, and there were

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<v Speaker 5>others who just wanted kind of a secular, liberal democracy

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<v Speaker 5>and felt that the Shah was trampling on people's rights.

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<v Speaker 5>All of those people kind of joined in. But what

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<v Speaker 5>we see, especially kind of towards the end of the revolution,

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<v Speaker 5>as we're getting to nineteen seventy nine, is that the

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<v Speaker 5>leader of the revolution, Ruhala Homani, who then became the

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<v Speaker 5>leader of the new government, he wanted to kind of

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<v Speaker 5>co op some of the most effective sort of leftist

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<v Speaker 5>arguments because he wanted kind of their young people, they're

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<v Speaker 5>their supporters, to sort of also support him, and so,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, these arguments of kind of the bourgeoisie versus

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<v Speaker 5>the proletariat. You know, Homiani kind of adopted some of

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<v Speaker 5>those terms with an Islamic tinge, and therefore sort of

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<v Speaker 5>he promised and then in the first few months, especially

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<v Speaker 5>of the revolution, he also promised that, you know, we

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<v Speaker 5>are going to provide for the poor. We're going to

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<v Speaker 5>provide free electricity, free buses for the poor, We're going

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<v Speaker 5>to build housing. And I think the government's wanted to

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<v Speaker 5>present itself as being on behalf of some of those

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<v Speaker 5>the kind of the lower classes of society, and presented

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<v Speaker 5>them kind of as its base. As time goes on,

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<v Speaker 5>what we see, especially kind of in the last ten

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<v Speaker 5>to fifteen years, it sort of turned its back on

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of those promises to where it's not even

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<v Speaker 5>really even pretending anymore that that is kind of what

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<v Speaker 5>it's aimed at. And we can kind of talk about

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<v Speaker 5>some of the turning points there, but it really was

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<v Speaker 5>kind of a gradual shift over time, and then especially

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<v Speaker 5>since twenty seventeen, you really see this growing dissatisfaction amongst

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<v Speaker 5>not just middle class Iranians but also people who are

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<v Speaker 5>poor and struggling against what this revolution has brought to them.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, everyone's ability to derive wealth or income or is

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<v Speaker 2>somehow linked to where they stand in this hierarchy of

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<v Speaker 2>supporting the government or supporting the.

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<v Speaker 4>State in some way or another.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's talk about where the government mint gets its resources

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<v Speaker 2>to make these allocations, whether it's housing, whether it's electricity,

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<v Speaker 2>whether it's obviously munitions for various groups, et cetera. Obviously

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<v Speaker 2>we know oil is a big part of it, but

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<v Speaker 2>what are the main How would you big picture decompose

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<v Speaker 2>what the Iranian economy sort of basically looks like.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think, of course, yeah, oil is a big one.

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<v Speaker 5>It has kind of this huge resource that's very valuable

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<v Speaker 5>and that it can kind of use the fund itself.

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<v Speaker 5>But also Iran has a pretty diversified economy in terms

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<v Speaker 5>of its industrial base, and that is partially as a

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<v Speaker 5>result of kind of the Shaw Zone policies. But then

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<v Speaker 5>also sort of this idea that took root after the revolution,

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<v Speaker 5>that we need to provide for ourselves, we need to

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<v Speaker 5>be self sufficient. This was a very important kind of

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<v Speaker 5>part of both the ideology of kind of present in

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<v Speaker 5>that moment. In general, this sort of like twentieth century

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<v Speaker 5>sixty seventies backlash against interference by world powers in the

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<v Speaker 5>internal affairs of Iran and of other countries. So there

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<v Speaker 5>was kind of this very strong idea, especially among Iranian

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<v Speaker 5>leftists and including you know, some of the clerical class,

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<v Speaker 5>that we need to kind of establish our own industries

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<v Speaker 5>and be independent. So Iran has a car industry. Iran

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<v Speaker 5>has steel plants that were built after the Iran Iraq

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<v Speaker 5>War and it became operational sort of after the iron

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<v Speaker 5>I Rock War that produce you know, huge amounts of steel,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, kind of leading the Middle East in that industry.

0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:35.439
<v Speaker 5>And these industries are maybe not necessarily the most efficient,

0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:37.840
<v Speaker 5>and they don't have a ton of foreign investment, but

0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:42.720
<v Speaker 5>they provide employments. Iran has a huge agricultural sector, that is,

0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 5>which is an enormous source of jobs in Iran, which

0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:48.520
<v Speaker 5>has been very important as it's been under sanction. Of course,

0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:51.120
<v Speaker 5>the agricultural sector has a lot of other costs, including

0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:54.960
<v Speaker 5>overuse of water, which Iran has been facing, but it

0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.720
<v Speaker 5>was sort of it's an important at least source of

0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.560
<v Speaker 5>jobs in the economy. So these are all these major

0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:04.720
<v Speaker 5>industries that kind of first start out after the revolution

0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.840
<v Speaker 5>being very much under the purview of the formal states

0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.560
<v Speaker 5>kind of what we in the West would recognize as

0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:15.960
<v Speaker 5>a government, including and a ministry, you know, a ministry

0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:19.440
<v Speaker 5>that is answerable to parliament, that oversees, for instance, the

0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:23.280
<v Speaker 5>steel industry or the minds in Iran. Over time, and

0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:25.080
<v Speaker 5>we can we should kind of talk about this more,

0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:30.080
<v Speaker 5>the control over those industries moves away from sort of

0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 5>the recognized parts of the state into kind of this

0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:36.720
<v Speaker 5>shadow state, you know, which is sort of much more

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.960
<v Speaker 5>linked to the security forces and to these entities that

0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.280
<v Speaker 5>are kind of controlled by the clerics but aren't really

0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:45.440
<v Speaker 5>accountable to the rest of the government.

0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:47.800
<v Speaker 6>If I add a bit to that, because if you

0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 6>look at the history of the Islamic Republic, well, of course,

0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:55.480
<v Speaker 6>the revolution started with this massive wave of nationalization the

0:13:55.559 --> 0:14:00.800
<v Speaker 6>state to control of the major industries shipping, mind banking,

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.920
<v Speaker 6>and many more. But gradually, as we come forward, after

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:10.559
<v Speaker 6>a decade or two, the Indian state decided the privatization

0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:15.079
<v Speaker 6>of these major industries. But I think the main problem

0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:19.680
<v Speaker 6>was the corruption that we didn't see real privatization. So

0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:24.680
<v Speaker 6>usually people who were close to centers of power, they

0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:29.280
<v Speaker 6>came and took over these industries, and they like they

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:32.120
<v Speaker 6>took them over with a very low price. Like imagine

0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:36.200
<v Speaker 6>factories that were owned by the government, they were taken

0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:40.400
<v Speaker 6>over by elements very close to the security forces. And

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:44.040
<v Speaker 6>so after that, many of these factories they didn't come

0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:49.680
<v Speaker 6>back to production. The machinery was sold and the land

0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:56.200
<v Speaker 6>was turned into maybe a residential place to build apartments.

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:59.640
<v Speaker 6>So we saw that that level. But still, as Y'regana mentioned,

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.600
<v Speaker 6>we have private sector in your own you know, the

0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:07.600
<v Speaker 6>problem with private sector is that if a business becomes

0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:13.080
<v Speaker 6>successful and it passes a certain threshold, you will see

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:16.560
<v Speaker 6>the security forces coming and knocking on your door and

0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:19.800
<v Speaker 6>they want their share. And that's again it's like in

0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.280
<v Speaker 6>Mafia stated, which you can imagine if you have a

0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:25.560
<v Speaker 6>restaurant in I don't know, in mafia movies, if you

0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 6>have a successful restaurant, they would come and they want

0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:31.360
<v Speaker 6>their share from these businesses. And as we showed in

0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 6>the book, one of the major new sectors was the

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:40.680
<v Speaker 6>startup sector. Of course, this sector was started by many

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.320
<v Speaker 6>Iranians who came back from abroad to launch this sector.

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:49.120
<v Speaker 6>But they saw that how the security forces came and

0:15:49.640 --> 0:16:03.720
<v Speaker 6>forced them to give up these firms.

0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 3>Just in terms of the state like becoming more intertwined

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.040
<v Speaker 3>with the private sector. I learned two new words, or

0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 3>I guess terms from your book, and I'm going to

0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.240
<v Speaker 3>mispronounce the first one because I've only ever read it.

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:27.040
<v Speaker 3>I've never said it aloud, But bonyads, is that right? Bonyads?

0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 6>Okay?

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.640
<v Speaker 3>Bonyads? And then invisible ports. Can you talk a little

0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:34.240
<v Speaker 3>bit more about those two things as sort of examples

0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:38.760
<v Speaker 3>of how the state becomes intertwined with the private sector

0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:39.960
<v Speaker 3>or the general economy.

0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 6>Okay. So again, these religious religious foundations there were launched

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.920
<v Speaker 6>at the beginning of the revolution and they're very interesting.

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:52.520
<v Speaker 6>So like one of them was this massive foundation that

0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:58.040
<v Speaker 6>was established to distribute the wealth among the poor, and

0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:03.120
<v Speaker 6>it seemed quite a noble cause. And of course we

0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:07.080
<v Speaker 6>had other foundations to look off the families of markers

0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:11.320
<v Speaker 6>of Ivanivok war and the veterans of the war. So

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:16.920
<v Speaker 6>these massive foundations, they were established by the order of

0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:21.600
<v Speaker 6>the founder of the revolution ALCHMENI and the heads of

0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:26.679
<v Speaker 6>those foundations, they had massive power. So we show in

0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:30.160
<v Speaker 6>the book, for example, that's how the head of one

0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:36.040
<v Speaker 6>of these foundations, he wanted to import some wheelchairs into

0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:40.440
<v Speaker 6>the country to give it to the veterans of war.

0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:45.159
<v Speaker 6>But at that time, the Minister of Industries he was

0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:47.840
<v Speaker 6>against the import because he believed that the imports of

0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:53.000
<v Speaker 6>German wheelchairs will be undermining the domestic production. But the

0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:56.720
<v Speaker 6>head of foundation, he was an MP at that time,

0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.160
<v Speaker 6>member of the parliament, so he went to the parliament

0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:04.360
<v Speaker 6>and paused to allow the foundation to import anything they

0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 6>want without any government supervision. And he wanted to do

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:14.199
<v Speaker 6>that to maintain the revolutionary nature of the foundation, and

0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:18.399
<v Speaker 6>he didn't want to be constrained by bureaucracy and red tape.

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 6>It's interesting that the same person decades later, he becomes

0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:27.640
<v Speaker 6>the speaker of the Parliament during the reform movement, and

0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:32.399
<v Speaker 6>he found these invisible ports or invisible jetties. How is that.

0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:35.840
<v Speaker 6>So we see that these foundations and the revolutionary guards,

0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:40.879
<v Speaker 6>they had massive power to import anything they wanted without

0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:45.639
<v Speaker 6>audit and without taxation, and this character of the book.

0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.639
<v Speaker 6>Decades later, he goes to southern ports of Iran, and

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:54.600
<v Speaker 6>he saw a dedicated port that belonged to the Revolutionary

0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:58.840
<v Speaker 6>Guards and they could import anything they wanted without any

0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:01.720
<v Speaker 6>supervision of the God. So in a way, you see

0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:07.919
<v Speaker 6>how this mafia state was formed gradually, how the revolutionary

0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:12.479
<v Speaker 6>nature of the foundation forced them into creating a system

0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:15.880
<v Speaker 6>which was not transparent from the start, and later on

0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:19.520
<v Speaker 6>the same system turned into a mafia state.

0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:22.800
<v Speaker 5>And you sort of see how there is some good intentions, right,

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:27.120
<v Speaker 5>like the idea of importing higher quality wheelchairs from abroad

0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:30.120
<v Speaker 5>to help veterans of the war who had been injured.

0:19:30.400 --> 0:19:34.520
<v Speaker 5>You know, that is a laudable intention. But you know,

0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:36.960
<v Speaker 5>this character, this person that we're talking about, Matthew cawdou Be,

0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:39.399
<v Speaker 5>he sort of in that decision in the nineteen eighties

0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:43.639
<v Speaker 5>establishes this idea that these foundations, and it wasn't just him,

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.320
<v Speaker 5>but this was just one example. These foundations are above

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:50.879
<v Speaker 5>the law and they get special dispensations and special privileges

0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:54.199
<v Speaker 5>because they're kind of associated with the revolutionary state. Private

0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.240
<v Speaker 5>companies don't get those rights. Entities you know, that are

0:19:57.280 --> 0:20:00.320
<v Speaker 5>disconnected from the government don't get those rights. But he

0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:03.719
<v Speaker 5>establishes that and that same thinking, you know, as it

0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:06.800
<v Speaker 5>continues and is not challenged over the years, sort of

0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:11.119
<v Speaker 5>grows into eventually these invisible ports and many other abuses.

0:20:11.400 --> 0:20:15.000
<v Speaker 2>It's so striking like listening to this because you I mean,

0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:18.960
<v Speaker 2>on the one hand, obviously or on very distinct story,

0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:21.639
<v Speaker 2>but on the other hand, you know, so many of

0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:25.399
<v Speaker 2>these themes we've already discussed, you see, like echoes of

0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:28.399
<v Speaker 2>them or versions of them in all sorts of developing

0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:32.520
<v Speaker 2>states or whatever. You know, obviously when you talk about, oh,

0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.240
<v Speaker 2>here is the still factor or some industrial facility, and

0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:37.840
<v Speaker 2>then it's been reproposed in some way for some non

0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:41.560
<v Speaker 2>vital thing. You sort of think about late era Soviet Union,

0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:44.520
<v Speaker 2>for example, it's like, here's the company that wants to

0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:46.919
<v Speaker 2>make bread, but they just sell other parts abroad for

0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:51.320
<v Speaker 2>hard cash and then don't actually serve their purpose. Were

0:20:51.320 --> 0:20:54.840
<v Speaker 2>there ever any forces in government that tried to keep

0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:57.840
<v Speaker 2>some of these entities in line. I assume there must

0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:01.520
<v Speaker 2>be like some conflict or efforts to sort of maintain

0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:06.040
<v Speaker 2>this thing where you have something that resembles industry has

0:21:06.119 --> 0:21:09.919
<v Speaker 2>some perverse incentives to maybe like take some shortcut for

0:21:10.000 --> 0:21:14.080
<v Speaker 2>the personal gain of whoever is the controlling entity. Were there, ever,

0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:19.280
<v Speaker 2>attempts to build in mechanisms such that these perhaps public

0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:23.200
<v Speaker 2>resources couldn't be expropriated in some way, for sure.

0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:26.560
<v Speaker 5>I mean there were definitely people who, maybe too late,

0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:29.560
<v Speaker 5>sort of saw the errors of some of the ways

0:21:29.560 --> 0:21:32.360
<v Speaker 5>that the government had acted, including people who had been

0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:35.320
<v Speaker 5>part of the problem, you know, earlier on in their career.

0:21:35.400 --> 0:21:38.679
<v Speaker 5>So like for example, Matthy Caderby who he mentioned, who

0:21:38.800 --> 0:21:40.960
<v Speaker 5>is a cleric who an MP. He led one of

0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:44.280
<v Speaker 5>these one yards, but then later on becomes part of

0:21:44.320 --> 0:21:48.880
<v Speaker 5>the reform movement and rises to great power and tries

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:53.280
<v Speaker 5>when he's in parliament to establish some standards of transparency

0:21:53.480 --> 0:21:57.520
<v Speaker 5>for these entities, these one yards and other institutions that

0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:02.000
<v Speaker 5>answered directly to Iran Supreme Leader, and he's unsuccessful. By

0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:04.879
<v Speaker 5>that point, which was the late nineties early two thousands,

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:08.680
<v Speaker 5>these entities and the Supreme Leader himself were just far

0:22:08.720 --> 0:22:12.760
<v Speaker 5>too powerful for the elected government to really put a

0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:15.800
<v Speaker 5>check on. There's another anecdote that we talk about at

0:22:15.840 --> 0:22:18.439
<v Speaker 5>length in the book, which was in two thousand and

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:21.960
<v Speaker 5>four when Iran was opening a new airport. And this

0:22:22.040 --> 0:22:24.959
<v Speaker 5>is a big moment for Iran. It had been planning

0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:27.760
<v Speaker 5>this airport actually since before the revolution. Of course it

0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:30.199
<v Speaker 5>was delayed, you know, because of that and because of

0:22:30.200 --> 0:22:32.040
<v Speaker 5>the war. But this was going to be kind of

0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:34.440
<v Speaker 5>this big moment when Iran was going to have an

0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:38.159
<v Speaker 5>airport to kind of rival Dubai and Istanbul. On the

0:22:38.240 --> 0:22:42.520
<v Speaker 5>day that it's being opened, the Revolutionary Guards drive armored

0:22:42.600 --> 0:22:46.600
<v Speaker 5>land cruisers onto the runway and prevent the first plane

0:22:46.640 --> 0:22:49.679
<v Speaker 5>from landing. They have to be begged by the Transport

0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:52.800
<v Speaker 5>Minister before they allow it to land. When the second

0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:55.640
<v Speaker 5>plane wants to come in, they scramble a fighter jet

0:22:55.680 --> 0:22:59.720
<v Speaker 5>and threaten it and it has to divert south to Esfahan.

0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:03.440
<v Speaker 5>And why did this happen, the Transport Minister later revealed

0:23:03.640 --> 0:23:06.840
<v Speaker 5>in a series of interviews, because the Guards had wanted

0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 5>the contract to operate that airport, but they hadn't provided

0:23:10.880 --> 0:23:14.119
<v Speaker 5>the best price, and so the government had given it

0:23:14.160 --> 0:23:18.520
<v Speaker 5>to a Turkish Austrian firm and the airport was shut down.

0:23:18.640 --> 0:23:21.199
<v Speaker 5>It was basically a no fly zone for months, and

0:23:21.240 --> 0:23:24.960
<v Speaker 5>it was reopened with state firms running the airport rather

0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:28.919
<v Speaker 5>than this foreign contract. And so you know our character,

0:23:29.040 --> 0:23:32.359
<v Speaker 5>Matthew Cabrby, he's a Speaker of Parliament. His MPs write

0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:36.680
<v Speaker 5>a report about what happened, but ultimately there's no accountability

0:23:36.840 --> 0:23:39.679
<v Speaker 5>for that action. And as we go on in time,

0:23:41.280 --> 0:23:43.080
<v Speaker 5>we get to a point where the guards don't even

0:23:43.119 --> 0:23:46.679
<v Speaker 5>really have to take such a dramatic step. Their dominance

0:23:46.760 --> 0:23:49.960
<v Speaker 5>in contracting and in you know, different parts of Iran's

0:23:50.000 --> 0:23:54.480
<v Speaker 5>economy sort of goes unquestioned. And I think the element

0:23:54.520 --> 0:23:58.320
<v Speaker 5>of Iran's government that is somewhat unique, at least in

0:23:58.359 --> 0:24:01.000
<v Speaker 5>its specifics, from you know, a place like the Soviet

0:24:01.080 --> 0:24:04.480
<v Speaker 5>Union or other places, is that because all of these

0:24:04.480 --> 0:24:07.480
<v Speaker 5>institutions answered to someone who's sort of seen as a

0:24:07.520 --> 0:24:13.080
<v Speaker 5>holy figure and whose power comes from God. Effectively, it's

0:24:13.160 --> 0:24:17.520
<v Speaker 5>much more difficult to question both his authority and to

0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:22.320
<v Speaker 5>establish any accountability over institutions that only report to him,

0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:25.840
<v Speaker 5>which is how Iran's government is structured. Both the military

0:24:25.960 --> 0:24:29.640
<v Speaker 5>and these big bonyands only report to him. And how

0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:33.440
<v Speaker 5>can you question someone who's, you know, effectively God's representative.

0:24:34.080 --> 0:24:38.240
<v Speaker 3>I mean the extraction from the private sector. How much

0:24:38.240 --> 0:24:44.000
<v Speaker 3>of that is about consolidating political power and how much

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:48.520
<v Speaker 3>of it is about being worried about I guess foreign

0:24:48.680 --> 0:24:52.440
<v Speaker 3>threats that might come in through additional capital in the country,

0:24:52.680 --> 0:24:55.760
<v Speaker 3>Like can you kind of decompose or try to maybe

0:24:55.800 --> 0:25:02.159
<v Speaker 3>psychoanalyze the motivations, for instance, the Iranian Guards wanting to

0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:04.560
<v Speaker 3>stop a new airport from operating.

0:25:05.200 --> 0:25:07.320
<v Speaker 6>I think the way I see it is the competition

0:25:07.440 --> 0:25:11.480
<v Speaker 6>of different factions within the same system. It's not that

0:25:11.600 --> 0:25:14.000
<v Speaker 6>one faction wants to have all the money and the

0:25:14.040 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 6>other faction is promoting transparency and is fighting corruption. Usually

0:25:19.880 --> 0:25:23.280
<v Speaker 6>you see with a change of government, you see that

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:29.639
<v Speaker 6>how the new government tries to empower people and elements

0:25:29.640 --> 0:25:32.000
<v Speaker 6>close close to that, And we explain that in the book,

0:25:32.040 --> 0:25:35.840
<v Speaker 6>and how for example, Ahmadinejad when he came to power,

0:25:36.440 --> 0:25:40.520
<v Speaker 6>he tried to empower people close to him. But when

0:25:40.720 --> 0:25:44.639
<v Speaker 6>the next presidents when they come, including Hassando Gohani, we

0:25:44.680 --> 0:25:49.680
<v Speaker 6>see that he also try to somehow make sure that

0:25:49.720 --> 0:25:53.560
<v Speaker 6>people close to him can benefit from such resources. So

0:25:53.600 --> 0:25:56.040
<v Speaker 6>I think there is this in fighting that you see

0:25:56.040 --> 0:25:59.440
<v Speaker 6>that sometimes the Revolutionary Guards they need to use their

0:25:59.480 --> 0:26:04.800
<v Speaker 6>military and intelligence power, and sometimes the other faction can

0:26:04.840 --> 0:26:08.879
<v Speaker 6>take control. But overall, I think there are many elements

0:26:08.920 --> 0:26:13.160
<v Speaker 6>that have added to this competition. Of course, the sanctions

0:26:13.200 --> 0:26:17.520
<v Speaker 6>are one of those decades of sanctions. They have created

0:26:17.600 --> 0:26:21.800
<v Speaker 6>this lack of transparency within the state and each faction

0:26:22.400 --> 0:26:26.080
<v Speaker 6>they come and they try to take a part of

0:26:26.200 --> 0:26:31.720
<v Speaker 6>the business, trying to show themselves essential for the everyday

0:26:32.080 --> 0:26:35.600
<v Speaker 6>affairs of the country to be handled. For example, before that,

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:39.440
<v Speaker 6>Iranian oil ministry has been in charge of selling goals.

0:26:39.640 --> 0:26:44.920
<v Speaker 6>That's been the case for decades. But when the sanctions

0:26:44.960 --> 0:26:50.240
<v Speaker 6>increased in recent decades and the government couldn't pay its

0:26:50.240 --> 0:26:55.240
<v Speaker 6>debts to let's say Iran police and their military forces,

0:26:55.280 --> 0:26:58.880
<v Speaker 6>it gave them access to oil. So a big part

0:26:58.960 --> 0:27:02.640
<v Speaker 6>of Iranian oil export has been done by the Revolutionary

0:27:02.680 --> 0:27:05.720
<v Speaker 6>Guards at this stage. Some estimate that half of the

0:27:05.840 --> 0:27:10.840
<v Speaker 6>Union oil is sold by the Revolutionary Guards. So I

0:27:10.840 --> 0:27:13.320
<v Speaker 6>think the way I say it is just these different

0:27:13.359 --> 0:27:18.159
<v Speaker 6>factions they're constantly fighting with one another trying to have

0:27:18.240 --> 0:27:21.040
<v Speaker 6>a bigger share of the economy intercy.

0:27:21.080 --> 0:27:24.520
<v Speaker 5>I think your question like there's one anecdote that sort

0:27:24.520 --> 0:27:28.000
<v Speaker 5>of exactly answers it. So I think it's both. I

0:27:28.040 --> 0:27:31.720
<v Speaker 5>think they came by their suspicion of foreign intervention in

0:27:31.760 --> 0:27:34.600
<v Speaker 5>Iran's economy. Honestly, I mean, if you look at the

0:27:34.640 --> 0:27:38.879
<v Speaker 5>twentieth century history of Iran, it is one of economic

0:27:38.920 --> 0:27:43.880
<v Speaker 5>exploitation of the country by world powers, US, the British,

0:27:43.920 --> 0:27:47.399
<v Speaker 5>the Russians, et cetera. And also they have used that

0:27:47.480 --> 0:27:50.679
<v Speaker 5>ideology in a way that has benefited themselves. So the

0:27:50.760 --> 0:27:53.520
<v Speaker 5>one anecdote that kind of gets at this is in

0:27:53.560 --> 0:27:57.719
<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty twenty twenty one, when COVID is hitting Iran

0:27:57.840 --> 0:28:01.040
<v Speaker 5>is one of the worst affected countries by COVID, the

0:28:01.080 --> 0:28:06.000
<v Speaker 5>Supreme Leader decides to bar the import of many Western

0:28:06.080 --> 0:28:10.800
<v Speaker 5>doses of the COVID vaccine, and kind of almost simultaneously,

0:28:10.840 --> 0:28:14.399
<v Speaker 5>the Iranian government decides to launch on a project to

0:28:14.440 --> 0:28:17.520
<v Speaker 5>make its own COVID vaccine. But what's the entity that's

0:28:17.560 --> 0:28:23.000
<v Speaker 5>given that contract. It's the conglomerate controlled by the Supreme

0:28:23.080 --> 0:28:26.679
<v Speaker 5>Leader at Ecomony. So he's both deciding a policy that

0:28:26.920 --> 0:28:29.639
<v Speaker 5>and I think, you know, if he's no longer with us,

0:28:29.640 --> 0:28:31.400
<v Speaker 5>but if we had given him truth serum, I think

0:28:31.400 --> 0:28:35.640
<v Speaker 5>he actually was suspicious of the motivations of the US

0:28:35.680 --> 0:28:38.640
<v Speaker 5>and the British and you know, making these COVID vaccines,

0:28:38.720 --> 0:28:41.600
<v Speaker 5>I think, you know that was probably genuine. But also

0:28:41.920 --> 0:28:45.640
<v Speaker 5>with that decision, he creates a shortage, and then his

0:28:45.720 --> 0:28:49.120
<v Speaker 5>conglomerate that would profit from a government contract like this

0:28:49.280 --> 0:28:51.640
<v Speaker 5>is able to step in and kind of save the

0:28:51.720 --> 0:28:54.600
<v Speaker 5>day and also make these these vaccine doses. So you

0:28:54.720 --> 0:28:57.520
<v Speaker 5>kind of see in that one example both the ideology

0:28:57.560 --> 0:29:01.640
<v Speaker 5>and the self interest kind of really melding seamlessly in

0:29:01.680 --> 0:29:04.480
<v Speaker 5>a way that it's just kind of remarkable to me.

0:29:04.600 --> 0:29:07.760
<v Speaker 5>So I think Bozark's answer stands, but I also think

0:29:07.800 --> 0:29:10.480
<v Speaker 5>that it's sort of both of those factors that you

0:29:10.520 --> 0:29:11.880
<v Speaker 5>identified acting at once.

0:29:12.080 --> 0:29:13.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and Joe, I should just say the one other

0:29:14.000 --> 0:29:16.640
<v Speaker 3>thing I know about Iran's economy is that it has

0:29:16.680 --> 0:29:19.400
<v Speaker 3>been the subject of interest, to put it mildly, to

0:29:19.520 --> 0:29:24.080
<v Speaker 3>many foreign governments over time, and of course famously BP

0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 3>you know this right, BP has its origins as a

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:32.440
<v Speaker 3>Iranian Anglo Iranian oil company.

0:29:32.760 --> 0:29:36.040
<v Speaker 2>So one question I have, just again from a sort

0:29:36.080 --> 0:29:40.080
<v Speaker 2>of pure economic developmentalist question. Many of the things that

0:29:40.120 --> 0:29:46.280
<v Speaker 2>you describe they would call like import substitution in developing economies,

0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:48.280
<v Speaker 2>et cetera. It's like, okay, like we don't want to

0:29:48.280 --> 0:29:50.800
<v Speaker 2>import too much of X, because then our sort of

0:29:50.880 --> 0:29:54.680
<v Speaker 2>nascent company can't compete, et cetera. And in many cases

0:29:54.720 --> 0:29:57.160
<v Speaker 2>there could be logic haves. There ever been a figure

0:29:57.280 --> 0:30:01.600
<v Speaker 2>in modern run in history who's sort of like the

0:30:01.680 --> 0:30:05.280
<v Speaker 2>sort of the export oriented development Let's build an industry

0:30:05.560 --> 0:30:07.960
<v Speaker 2>that can compete is what we always talk about with

0:30:08.080 --> 0:30:10.880
<v Speaker 2>the you know, the East Asian countries. Let's build an

0:30:10.880 --> 0:30:14.720
<v Speaker 2>industry set aside oil that competes and that we want

0:30:14.760 --> 0:30:17.640
<v Speaker 2>to thrive, et cetera. And the export market will be

0:30:17.680 --> 0:30:20.640
<v Speaker 2>the test of whether this is a successful company or not.

0:30:20.800 --> 0:30:24.280
<v Speaker 2>Has anyone like tried this sort of popular idea.

0:30:24.880 --> 0:30:27.840
<v Speaker 6>I think the closest that comes to my mind was

0:30:27.840 --> 0:30:32.440
<v Speaker 6>Hashimir of San Johnny President hashimirrav San Johnny, who was

0:30:32.480 --> 0:30:37.800
<v Speaker 6>saying that he wants to turn Iran into an Islamic Japan.

0:30:39.000 --> 0:30:44.080
<v Speaker 6>So he was very fascinated by metro system in Western

0:30:44.160 --> 0:30:47.960
<v Speaker 6>societies and he wanted to create the same system. But

0:30:48.160 --> 0:30:50.560
<v Speaker 6>at the end, I think he failed to do that.

0:30:50.600 --> 0:30:51.440
<v Speaker 6>What do you think they're going to?

0:30:52.040 --> 0:30:54.240
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean I think, you know, I don't know

0:30:54.280 --> 0:30:56.520
<v Speaker 5>that I would if anyone should cite me on this,

0:30:56.720 --> 0:30:58.520
<v Speaker 5>but I think, you know what I'm kind of looking

0:30:58.560 --> 0:31:02.280
<v Speaker 5>at sort of how Iranian companies compete. I mean, given

0:31:02.600 --> 0:31:06.000
<v Speaker 5>the fact that the way, the direction, the direction the

0:31:06.040 --> 0:31:10.520
<v Speaker 5>economy has gone in is favoring these entities, these companies

0:31:10.560 --> 0:31:13.640
<v Speaker 5>that are linked to powerful people in the state, and

0:31:13.680 --> 0:31:17.400
<v Speaker 5>that's sort of poisonous to competition, and so the idea

0:31:17.440 --> 0:31:22.760
<v Speaker 5>that even within Aron's domestic economy, the most the truly,

0:31:22.800 --> 0:31:26.520
<v Speaker 5>most talented and meritorious companies are not the ones that

0:31:26.920 --> 0:31:29.040
<v Speaker 5>rise to the top, are the most successful, or get

0:31:29.040 --> 0:31:32.040
<v Speaker 5>the most market share. It's the ones that are smart

0:31:32.120 --> 0:31:34.600
<v Speaker 5>enough or able enough to sell enough of their shares

0:31:34.640 --> 0:31:37.920
<v Speaker 5>to some powerful entity that at least they're then protected

0:31:37.920 --> 0:31:41.320
<v Speaker 5>from being perhaps raided or shut down, or maybe they

0:31:41.360 --> 0:31:44.240
<v Speaker 5>get some sort of like special dispensation from the government.

0:31:44.480 --> 0:31:47.440
<v Speaker 5>And then the idea that those companies that are themselves

0:31:47.440 --> 0:31:50.600
<v Speaker 5>maybe not the best are then going to compete externally

0:31:50.720 --> 0:31:54.240
<v Speaker 5>with like the semens of the world or ge just

0:31:54.280 --> 0:31:57.480
<v Speaker 5>seems a bit even if we set aside sanctions being

0:31:57.520 --> 0:32:00.000
<v Speaker 5>a huge barrier, which they are, it seems a bit

0:32:00.120 --> 0:32:03.240
<v Speaker 5>unrealistic to me that Iran would succeed in that kind

0:32:03.280 --> 0:32:06.760
<v Speaker 5>of market. Although you know, Iranian steel has you know,

0:32:06.920 --> 0:32:09.560
<v Speaker 5>they get they used to get a lot of foreign

0:32:09.640 --> 0:32:14.400
<v Speaker 5>foreign revenue, foreign currency from exporting steel to the various countries,

0:32:14.440 --> 0:32:17.440
<v Speaker 5>so they are there is a market for some Iranian goods,

0:32:17.480 --> 0:32:19.440
<v Speaker 5>but it's you know, I don't know that they would

0:32:19.520 --> 0:32:21.640
<v Speaker 5>kind of be at the top of any sort of

0:32:21.680 --> 0:32:22.280
<v Speaker 5>world list.

0:32:38.280 --> 0:32:41.360
<v Speaker 3>Can we talk about the tech sector specifically, because again,

0:32:41.440 --> 0:32:44.200
<v Speaker 3>this was surprising to learn that at one point Iran

0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:46.720
<v Speaker 3>had a vibrant startup scene. But on the other hand,

0:32:46.760 --> 0:32:49.040
<v Speaker 3>it kind of makes sense. If you think about a

0:32:49.120 --> 0:32:53.360
<v Speaker 3>place where, because of sanctions you don't have a lot

0:32:53.400 --> 0:32:57.040
<v Speaker 3>of Anisons or ubers around, then maybe that's the perfect

0:32:57.480 --> 0:32:57.840
<v Speaker 3>you know.

0:32:58.360 --> 0:33:00.760
<v Speaker 2>I also just associated around with having a lot of

0:33:01.240 --> 0:33:04.040
<v Speaker 2>young Yeah.

0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:09.080
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, So what did Iran's tech startup scene actually look like?

0:33:09.640 --> 0:33:12.320
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, this is a fascinating chapter and one

0:33:12.320 --> 0:33:15.640
<v Speaker 5>that we really dug into. So Iran was the second

0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:18.000
<v Speaker 5>country in the Middle East, after Israel to get access

0:33:18.040 --> 0:33:20.479
<v Speaker 5>to the internet. So it's a very kind of like

0:33:20.640 --> 0:33:25.320
<v Speaker 5>tech forward pioneering country in that way. And towards the

0:33:25.440 --> 0:33:28.160
<v Speaker 5>end the sorts of the early twenty tens, more and

0:33:28.160 --> 0:33:31.520
<v Speaker 5>more young people are starting to get online. The Dorohani

0:33:31.560 --> 0:33:34.760
<v Speaker 5>government kind of this more moderate government coming in, they

0:33:35.160 --> 0:33:38.959
<v Speaker 5>enabled access to three G and four G internet, so

0:33:39.000 --> 0:33:41.600
<v Speaker 5>there's suddenly this access to mobile data and to the

0:33:41.680 --> 0:33:44.200
<v Speaker 5>ability to kind of have apps and stream video all

0:33:44.520 --> 0:33:47.000
<v Speaker 5>those sort of things. So it really took off, and

0:33:47.800 --> 0:33:52.400
<v Speaker 5>Iranian users wanted content, they wanted apps, and as you mentioned,

0:33:52.880 --> 0:33:55.840
<v Speaker 5>the sanctions meant that even with a nuclear deal, because

0:33:55.880 --> 0:33:58.960
<v Speaker 5>the nuclear deal, if you remember, did not allow American

0:33:59.000 --> 0:34:02.480
<v Speaker 5>companies to go into Iran. So the leading tech companies

0:34:02.480 --> 0:34:06.480
<v Speaker 5>in the world, Amazon, Uber lived, they could not operate.

0:34:06.560 --> 0:34:11.000
<v Speaker 5>So there's this sort of protected ecosystem of eighty million

0:34:11.040 --> 0:34:13.920
<v Speaker 5>at that time, eighty five million or so population that

0:34:14.600 --> 0:34:19.719
<v Speaker 5>needed apps, and Iranian businesses could suddenly launch and serve

0:34:19.800 --> 0:34:22.080
<v Speaker 5>those people. And so that's really what happened. So you

0:34:22.719 --> 0:34:25.719
<v Speaker 5>kind of start to see the first inklings of this

0:34:25.800 --> 0:34:29.120
<v Speaker 5>sort of tech industry forming in the early twenty tens.

0:34:29.440 --> 0:34:32.319
<v Speaker 5>You get some very early foreign investment even before the

0:34:32.400 --> 0:34:36.920
<v Speaker 5>nuclear deal happening, and some Iranian expats moving back and

0:34:36.960 --> 0:34:40.480
<v Speaker 5>sort of seeing what's happening and starting venture capital funds.

0:34:40.800 --> 0:34:44.319
<v Speaker 5>And this really then takes off after the nuclear deal

0:34:44.400 --> 0:34:47.239
<v Speaker 5>is signed in twenty fifteen and goes into effect in

0:34:47.320 --> 0:34:51.600
<v Speaker 5>early twenty sixteen, and foreign investors are just really intrigued

0:34:51.640 --> 0:34:54.640
<v Speaker 5>by this idea that we finally have like the last

0:34:54.719 --> 0:34:58.120
<v Speaker 5>sort of green field opportunity is in Iran, and maybe

0:34:58.120 --> 0:35:00.400
<v Speaker 5>it could be the next Russia, it could be the

0:35:00.440 --> 0:35:02.880
<v Speaker 5>next China, and we could really get in early on

0:35:02.920 --> 0:35:04.879
<v Speaker 5>this and so that you know, we kind of trace

0:35:04.920 --> 0:35:05.800
<v Speaker 5>what happens after that.

0:35:06.320 --> 0:35:06.880
<v Speaker 4>It was great.

0:35:06.960 --> 0:35:10.040
<v Speaker 2>If you go to the website of the University of

0:35:10.080 --> 0:35:14.719
<v Speaker 2>Tehran right now, it's all the cliches of every university.

0:35:14.760 --> 0:35:16.920
<v Speaker 2>They have a picture of a bunch of happy grads.

0:35:17.200 --> 0:35:21.359
<v Speaker 2>They have the required photo of a multi racial classroom,

0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:24.440
<v Speaker 2>which every university has on their website, all of these

0:35:24.480 --> 0:35:27.320
<v Speaker 2>people learning. But let's talk a little bit more about

0:35:27.360 --> 0:35:30.560
<v Speaker 2>what you know. Okay, you mentioned like the ubers and lyfts, etc.

0:35:31.080 --> 0:35:34.680
<v Speaker 2>Like what else were people trying to build? Like how

0:35:35.239 --> 0:35:38.319
<v Speaker 2>far did this ecosystem push? And then you mentioned Okay,

0:35:38.400 --> 0:35:41.040
<v Speaker 2>eventually a company gets to a point, it reads some

0:35:41.160 --> 0:35:44.320
<v Speaker 2>threshold in which like it is no longer really able

0:35:44.360 --> 0:35:49.200
<v Speaker 2>to operate as like a private entity that pursue shareholder value.

0:35:48.920 --> 0:35:52.320
<v Speaker 4>Is its mission? What's the second after all this excitement,

0:35:52.360 --> 0:35:53.040
<v Speaker 4>Like where does it go?

0:35:53.840 --> 0:35:54.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:35:54.120 --> 0:35:55.800
<v Speaker 5>So, I mean, I will say a lot of the

0:35:56.640 --> 0:35:59.360
<v Speaker 5>startups were kind of familiar. There was sort of like

0:35:59.719 --> 0:36:02.120
<v Speaker 5>verse of things that we'd be familiar with West. So

0:36:02.239 --> 0:36:05.360
<v Speaker 5>there's the Amazon of Iran called Digikala. There's the Uber

0:36:05.400 --> 0:36:08.920
<v Speaker 5>of Iran called snap. There's food delivery apps, there's all

0:36:08.960 --> 0:36:10.640
<v Speaker 5>sorts of things. There's also things that are kind of

0:36:10.920 --> 0:36:14.319
<v Speaker 5>more unique, but those the most successful companies, the ones

0:36:14.360 --> 0:36:15.839
<v Speaker 5>that kind of right out the gate, are the ones

0:36:15.880 --> 0:36:18.480
<v Speaker 5>that are sort of taking business models that have been

0:36:18.480 --> 0:36:20.560
<v Speaker 5>tried and true in the rest of the world and

0:36:21.160 --> 0:36:24.520
<v Speaker 5>localizing them for Iran. So you know, they start to

0:36:24.560 --> 0:36:27.880
<v Speaker 5>really grow. And this kind of takes everyone by surprise,

0:36:27.960 --> 0:36:31.840
<v Speaker 5>including the government. I think, you know, from interviews I've done,

0:36:32.120 --> 0:36:34.200
<v Speaker 5>it seemed like the government really sort of thought this

0:36:34.239 --> 0:36:37.239
<v Speaker 5>stuff was sort of whatever, you know, like okay, I

0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:40.200
<v Speaker 5>think they didn't quite realize how quickly this field would grow.

0:36:40.800 --> 0:36:43.360
<v Speaker 5>And our character that we kind of follow in the

0:36:43.360 --> 0:36:46.320
<v Speaker 5>book starts his own venture capital fund, first with domestic

0:36:46.360 --> 0:36:48.640
<v Speaker 5>funding and then brings in a lot of external funding

0:36:48.680 --> 0:36:53.239
<v Speaker 5>as well from Europe and Russian investors. This sort of,

0:36:53.880 --> 0:36:56.960
<v Speaker 5>I think takes a lot of the conservative, kind of

0:36:57.400 --> 0:37:01.640
<v Speaker 5>established forces by surprise, and what we very quickly see

0:37:01.840 --> 0:37:05.239
<v Speaker 5>is a backlash. And first it kind of takes the

0:37:05.239 --> 0:37:08.880
<v Speaker 5>form of sort of hidden kind of whispers. There's like

0:37:08.920 --> 0:37:12.839
<v Speaker 5>a mysterious telegram channel that forms that starts making accusations

0:37:12.880 --> 0:37:15.719
<v Speaker 5>against some of the startup founders and you know, sort

0:37:15.760 --> 0:37:19.680
<v Speaker 5>of people around that sector. The startups are very much associated.

0:37:20.440 --> 0:37:22.279
<v Speaker 5>In some cases, they did not mean to be, but

0:37:22.320 --> 0:37:24.680
<v Speaker 5>in some case they did sort of form an alliance.

0:37:25.000 --> 0:37:29.399
<v Speaker 5>They're associated with the elected government of Hassan Rohaney, and

0:37:29.560 --> 0:37:32.600
<v Speaker 5>you know, there were already these factions kind of developing

0:37:32.680 --> 0:37:37.200
<v Speaker 5>that were very against Rohaney, particularly in the Revolutionary Guards,

0:37:37.200 --> 0:37:39.759
<v Speaker 5>and sort of saw him and his diplomats as being

0:37:39.800 --> 0:37:44.799
<v Speaker 5>too conciliatory towards the US. So this backlash from the

0:37:44.800 --> 0:37:47.839
<v Speaker 5>security state is kind of forming. People are being interrogated,

0:37:47.880 --> 0:37:51.399
<v Speaker 5>they're being you know, sometimes arrested, even their offices are

0:37:51.400 --> 0:37:54.360
<v Speaker 5>being raided. And at the same time, what we document

0:37:54.960 --> 0:37:58.319
<v Speaker 5>is that people kind of middlemen with a foot in

0:37:58.360 --> 0:38:01.080
<v Speaker 5>the security state and a foot in the private sector,

0:38:01.440 --> 0:38:03.840
<v Speaker 5>people who had been you know, Ministry of Defense officials

0:38:03.960 --> 0:38:05.960
<v Speaker 5>or who had served on the boards of some of

0:38:06.000 --> 0:38:09.200
<v Speaker 5>these bunyards, et cetera. They start to make an offer

0:38:09.320 --> 0:38:11.880
<v Speaker 5>to some of the startups, and basically the offer is

0:38:12.520 --> 0:38:14.839
<v Speaker 5>give us like five percent of your shares and we

0:38:14.880 --> 0:38:19.120
<v Speaker 5>will help protect you from these accusations and from the

0:38:19.200 --> 0:38:22.640
<v Speaker 5>risks that you're facing. And some of the startup founders

0:38:22.680 --> 0:38:24.680
<v Speaker 5>take that deal. You know, we really try to get

0:38:24.680 --> 0:38:27.440
<v Speaker 5>into their mindset, and we interviewed over seventy people for

0:38:27.480 --> 0:38:30.000
<v Speaker 5>this section of the book, and I think they some

0:38:30.040 --> 0:38:34.120
<v Speaker 5>of them didn't understand really what was happening. They felt beleaguered,

0:38:34.200 --> 0:38:36.880
<v Speaker 5>and they felt quite at risk, and they wanted to

0:38:36.920 --> 0:38:40.440
<v Speaker 5>save their companies. They wanted to do what they felt

0:38:40.480 --> 0:38:43.920
<v Speaker 5>like was good work, employing people, providing middle class jobs,

0:38:44.520 --> 0:38:46.680
<v Speaker 5>and so some of them took that deal. And we see,

0:38:46.960 --> 0:38:50.080
<v Speaker 5>for instance, the uber overron Snap sold a large portion

0:38:50.160 --> 0:38:53.560
<v Speaker 5>of shares to one of the Bunyards. There's another kind

0:38:53.600 --> 0:38:57.799
<v Speaker 5>of ride share company that launches with a revolutionary guard financing,

0:38:58.440 --> 0:39:01.680
<v Speaker 5>and then ultimately just a couple of years ago, we

0:39:01.760 --> 0:39:04.759
<v Speaker 5>sort of trace the specifics of this and how much

0:39:05.120 --> 0:39:08.279
<v Speaker 5>the company tried to resist. But ultimately the Amazon of

0:39:08.280 --> 0:39:11.720
<v Speaker 5>Iran dig Youkla did sell forty percent of its shares

0:39:11.800 --> 0:39:15.239
<v Speaker 5>to a telecom that is part owned by one of

0:39:15.239 --> 0:39:18.000
<v Speaker 5>these Bonnons as well. So we really kind of see

0:39:18.000 --> 0:39:24.760
<v Speaker 5>this exciting, vibrant, thriving industry that was not deeply connected

0:39:24.800 --> 0:39:28.160
<v Speaker 5>to the government. Over time then kind of is subdued

0:39:28.280 --> 0:39:29.840
<v Speaker 5>by those government forces.

0:39:30.239 --> 0:39:33.160
<v Speaker 2>By the way, Tracy, I just found this very interesting

0:39:33.239 --> 0:39:36.799
<v Speaker 2>article from twenty twenty that company Snap in order to

0:39:36.840 --> 0:39:39.320
<v Speaker 2>get onto the there's a story from rest of world.

0:39:39.840 --> 0:39:44.160
<v Speaker 2>They got on the Apple App Store by disguising the

0:39:44.239 --> 0:39:47.400
<v Speaker 2>app as a music streaming app, and then only upon

0:39:47.520 --> 0:39:51.000
<v Speaker 2>a user logging in with an Iranian IP address what

0:39:51.080 --> 0:39:53.799
<v Speaker 2>its full capabilities does a ride hailing app merge And

0:39:53.800 --> 0:39:56.360
<v Speaker 2>then I guess Apple has since banned that. But some

0:39:56.480 --> 0:39:57.760
<v Speaker 2>clever ingenuity.

0:39:57.360 --> 0:40:01.560
<v Speaker 3>There, Yeah, very smart. So one thing I'm wondering is,

0:40:01.960 --> 0:40:05.920
<v Speaker 3>at the time of this tech boom, such as it was,

0:40:06.160 --> 0:40:09.960
<v Speaker 3>there were some Iranian officials that seemed to be supportive

0:40:10.080 --> 0:40:11.799
<v Speaker 3>of it. I can't remember his exact name, but there

0:40:11.840 --> 0:40:15.000
<v Speaker 3>was someone in the ministry who was like actually actively

0:40:15.120 --> 0:40:18.399
<v Speaker 3>promoting tech at the same time that you had other

0:40:18.480 --> 0:40:23.200
<v Speaker 3>actors in the government who are starting like disinformation campaigns

0:40:23.239 --> 0:40:26.799
<v Speaker 3>to smear these companies and making you know, not so

0:40:26.920 --> 0:40:31.040
<v Speaker 3>subtle threats and things like that. Again, I'm fascinated by

0:40:31.080 --> 0:40:34.920
<v Speaker 3>the coordination problem or lack of coordination here, because it

0:40:34.960 --> 0:40:38.480
<v Speaker 3>really seems like people are like off doing different things.

0:40:38.560 --> 0:40:40.720
<v Speaker 3>And if you're a business owner, how are you supposed

0:40:40.760 --> 0:40:44.840
<v Speaker 3>to respond to all these competing interests. Yeah, it's not

0:40:44.920 --> 0:40:46.400
<v Speaker 3>a question, I guess it's a statement.

0:40:47.800 --> 0:40:49.839
<v Speaker 5>I can add a little as this. I think that

0:40:49.840 --> 0:40:53.440
<v Speaker 5>that is the huge challenge that made like Iran's not just,

0:40:54.040 --> 0:40:56.959
<v Speaker 5>for instance, a corrupt state or just an authoritarian state.

0:40:57.000 --> 0:41:00.160
<v Speaker 5>It's also sort of chaotic, and I think that is

0:41:00.160 --> 0:41:03.680
<v Speaker 5>what is poisonous to business, almost more than any other

0:41:03.800 --> 0:41:06.080
<v Speaker 5>part of it. You know, I'm not a China expert,

0:41:06.120 --> 0:41:08.040
<v Speaker 5>but my sense is that you know, when it comes

0:41:08.080 --> 0:41:11.200
<v Speaker 5>to China, if you have an understanding with the Communist Party,

0:41:11.560 --> 0:41:14.400
<v Speaker 5>then you're good to go. In Iran, even if you

0:41:14.520 --> 0:41:17.000
<v Speaker 5>do end up making a deal with you know, some

0:41:17.160 --> 0:41:20.160
<v Speaker 5>bone yard selling your shares, whatever it might be. It's

0:41:20.239 --> 0:41:23.240
<v Speaker 5>it's a mafia structure, but there's also all these underbosses

0:41:23.320 --> 0:41:25.800
<v Speaker 5>and they all kind of compete with each other, and

0:41:25.840 --> 0:41:30.040
<v Speaker 5>their power sways from day to day. So yes, one

0:41:30.200 --> 0:41:33.600
<v Speaker 5>entity within the government was really supporting these startups and

0:41:33.640 --> 0:41:36.880
<v Speaker 5>wanted them to succeed, and his administration was sort of

0:41:36.920 --> 0:41:40.600
<v Speaker 5>hated by the more powerful security forces. So for the

0:41:40.680 --> 0:41:42.560
<v Speaker 5>startup guys, a lot of whom were coming, you know,

0:41:42.600 --> 0:41:44.760
<v Speaker 5>they were expats, they were kind of coming back to Iran,

0:41:45.080 --> 0:41:48.080
<v Speaker 5>they were bewildered by this. And as you both know,

0:41:48.200 --> 0:41:51.640
<v Speaker 5>I mean, business requires certainty and that has been I

0:41:51.640 --> 0:41:56.080
<v Speaker 5>think more detrimental the uncertainty and around the instability of

0:41:56.200 --> 0:41:59.120
<v Speaker 5>the actual government structure and figuring out what it wants

0:41:59.200 --> 0:42:02.160
<v Speaker 5>from day to day. That's been more poisonous almost than

0:42:02.200 --> 0:42:04.120
<v Speaker 5>the actual fact of like, Okay, I got to make

0:42:04.160 --> 0:42:06.719
<v Speaker 5>a deal with like such and such entity and you know,

0:42:07.040 --> 0:42:09.520
<v Speaker 5>be able to continue my work safely.

0:42:10.000 --> 0:42:12.760
<v Speaker 6>You know. The closest comparison that comes to my mind

0:42:12.920 --> 0:42:18.399
<v Speaker 6>is like Greek mythology and reading, and I realized that

0:42:18.600 --> 0:42:22.600
<v Speaker 6>Zeus doesn't have the absolute power, so you'rean supreme leader,

0:42:22.680 --> 0:42:25.960
<v Speaker 6>didn't have the absolute power he needs to manage between

0:42:25.960 --> 0:42:29.440
<v Speaker 6>all different gods and goddesses. And in the case of

0:42:29.600 --> 0:42:32.239
<v Speaker 6>this year, as you see that he is supported by

0:42:32.400 --> 0:42:36.360
<v Speaker 6>some gods to go back home, but some angry gods

0:42:36.360 --> 0:42:40.359
<v Speaker 6>are trying to block his return to back home. So yeah,

0:42:40.400 --> 0:42:44.640
<v Speaker 6>I think a businessman in Iran is just like it's

0:42:44.680 --> 0:42:45.520
<v Speaker 6>a real odyssey.

0:42:45.719 --> 0:42:48.319
<v Speaker 2>I love this analogy because it's like, what was the

0:42:48.360 --> 0:42:52.360
<v Speaker 2>breakthrough of monotheism? Was it part to solve this problem

0:42:52.360 --> 0:42:55.640
<v Speaker 2>of different people petitioning different gods, et cetera. Do you

0:42:55.640 --> 0:42:58.440
<v Speaker 2>want to like establish another's like one set of rules?

0:42:58.440 --> 0:43:00.520
<v Speaker 2>So I think that, But also so that sort of

0:43:00.560 --> 0:43:03.160
<v Speaker 2>actually brings me to another question which came up a

0:43:03.200 --> 0:43:06.640
<v Speaker 2>little bit earlier. But you know, when we talk about

0:43:06.680 --> 0:43:09.319
<v Speaker 2>some of these things, we can draw these analogies. There's

0:43:09.320 --> 0:43:13.560
<v Speaker 2>maybe comparisons to late Soviet Union. There may be comparisons

0:43:13.600 --> 0:43:17.880
<v Speaker 2>to the oligarchs extracting the resources after the collapse of

0:43:17.920 --> 0:43:20.680
<v Speaker 2>the Soviet Union. There may be analogies to a country

0:43:20.680 --> 0:43:23.920
<v Speaker 2>like Venezuela, which of course people have also likened to

0:43:23.960 --> 0:43:28.200
<v Speaker 2>a mabvious date, their analogies to China. With the difference

0:43:28.239 --> 0:43:31.680
<v Speaker 2>between the CCP and the government itself. The thing that

0:43:32.000 --> 0:43:35.080
<v Speaker 2>feels a little distinct here is the role of religion,

0:43:35.200 --> 0:43:37.360
<v Speaker 2>which you meant, and the idea that there's maybe this

0:43:37.520 --> 0:43:42.600
<v Speaker 2>other higher thing that people are told to strive towards.

0:43:43.040 --> 0:43:43.640
<v Speaker 4>Can you talk a.

0:43:43.600 --> 0:43:46.799
<v Speaker 2>Little bit more about, like teasing out the effect that

0:43:46.800 --> 0:43:50.600
<v Speaker 2>that sort of like spiritual element plays in some of this,

0:43:50.680 --> 0:43:54.400
<v Speaker 2>which I could imagine a creates yet another difficult dimension

0:43:54.520 --> 0:43:57.040
<v Speaker 2>for businesses to operate in.

0:43:57.520 --> 0:43:59.160
<v Speaker 4>But then also when I.

0:43:59.280 --> 0:44:01.600
<v Speaker 2>Especially when I think the tech sector, like tech pries

0:44:01.680 --> 0:44:03.960
<v Speaker 2>people's brains, and if I wanted to have a more

0:44:04.040 --> 0:44:07.200
<v Speaker 2>spiritual society, I don't know how much I want the

0:44:07.200 --> 0:44:09.919
<v Speaker 2>public to look at their phones all day.

0:44:10.200 --> 0:44:12.879
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think that's a good point, because I think

0:44:12.880 --> 0:44:16.160
<v Speaker 6>that's been one of the core problems when Western societies

0:44:16.239 --> 0:44:21.480
<v Speaker 6>have been trying to tackle the Islamic Republic. Look, Obama

0:44:21.840 --> 0:44:25.839
<v Speaker 6>tried to have a nuclear deal with ir Own, and

0:44:26.480 --> 0:44:29.880
<v Speaker 6>Trump is trying to do that. I think one of

0:44:29.920 --> 0:44:33.120
<v Speaker 6>the reasons that the US and many Western countries tried

0:44:33.120 --> 0:44:37.120
<v Speaker 6>to do that was their deep belief in market, free

0:44:37.120 --> 0:44:41.840
<v Speaker 6>market economy and capitalism. I think the underlying assumption was

0:44:41.880 --> 0:44:47.560
<v Speaker 6>that given a choice between isolations and sanctions and prosperity,

0:44:48.280 --> 0:44:52.040
<v Speaker 6>of course every country will choose the latter. Like in

0:44:52.080 --> 0:44:55.640
<v Speaker 6>a way, they believe that by integrating the Ringian economy

0:44:55.719 --> 0:44:59.560
<v Speaker 6>into the world, they will create some political liberalization and

0:45:00.200 --> 0:45:04.760
<v Speaker 6>form of democratization. But I think I mean Trump also

0:45:04.800 --> 0:45:07.760
<v Speaker 6>believes that. If you look at Trump's speeches in twenty

0:45:07.920 --> 0:45:10.200
<v Speaker 6>and twenty five, it says, oh, I want to make

0:45:10.239 --> 0:45:13.560
<v Speaker 6>Iran a great nation. We want I see a bright

0:45:13.640 --> 0:45:18.240
<v Speaker 6>future for the country. But you see, surprisingly that Iran

0:45:18.400 --> 0:45:23.200
<v Speaker 6>doesn't take that offer. The Islamic Republic. I think that's

0:45:23.239 --> 0:45:29.480
<v Speaker 6>when this ideological component comes in that is somehow difficult

0:45:29.480 --> 0:45:32.959
<v Speaker 6>to explain for the Western societies that you see that

0:45:33.680 --> 0:45:37.640
<v Speaker 6>the country is much focused on the ideological aspects of it.

0:45:38.040 --> 0:45:41.040
<v Speaker 6>And even after the nuclear deal that Obama managed to

0:45:41.040 --> 0:45:43.920
<v Speaker 6>sign in twenty and fifteen and the lifting of sanctions

0:45:43.920 --> 0:45:47.880
<v Speaker 6>in twenty and sixteen. The money that came to Iran,

0:45:48.920 --> 0:45:53.919
<v Speaker 6>the incentives that the Western societies offered, it was meant

0:45:54.000 --> 0:45:59.240
<v Speaker 6>on military development. So the Ranian state has different priorities

0:45:59.280 --> 0:46:01.920
<v Speaker 6>when it comes to development. They prefer to put the

0:46:02.000 --> 0:46:08.280
<v Speaker 6>money on military developments rather than on tackling unemployment, inflation

0:46:08.520 --> 0:46:10.799
<v Speaker 6>and things like that. So that's been the challenge, and

0:46:10.840 --> 0:46:13.000
<v Speaker 6>I think the challenge exists at the moment as well.

0:46:13.120 --> 0:46:17.920
<v Speaker 6>Like now the deal, the MoU that was signed between

0:46:17.960 --> 0:46:22.880
<v Speaker 6>Trump and the Islamic Republic, they offered billions of dollars,

0:46:22.920 --> 0:46:26.200
<v Speaker 6>even hundreds of billions of dollars, but it seems that

0:46:26.280 --> 0:46:29.920
<v Speaker 6>some elements, some hardline elements within the Islamic Republic, they

0:46:29.960 --> 0:46:30.560
<v Speaker 6>didn't want that.

0:46:31.000 --> 0:46:35.480
<v Speaker 2>Tracy, I think from the perspective of the West, most people,

0:46:35.560 --> 0:46:39.240
<v Speaker 2>they are, being honest, cannot believe that some people aren't

0:46:39.280 --> 0:46:43.279
<v Speaker 2>just motivated by money, like they hear like people say, oh,

0:46:43.320 --> 0:46:46.560
<v Speaker 2>we believe in some higher power or some vision, but

0:46:46.600 --> 0:46:48.800
<v Speaker 2>I think like deep down we all believe that everyone

0:46:48.840 --> 0:46:52.560
<v Speaker 2>has a price and that everyone actually just wants Like no,

0:46:52.640 --> 0:46:54.839
<v Speaker 2>they're really they're saying this, but what they really want

0:46:54.960 --> 0:46:57.680
<v Speaker 2>is wealth. And so I do think like there's this

0:46:57.760 --> 0:47:02.360
<v Speaker 2>disconnect when we encounter when we have relationships with people

0:47:02.560 --> 0:47:06.480
<v Speaker 2>who actually may believe in something that is not just

0:47:06.880 --> 0:47:08.680
<v Speaker 2>accumulating wealth and comfort.

0:47:08.840 --> 0:47:10.400
<v Speaker 3>Some people in the West.

0:47:10.360 --> 0:47:11.760
<v Speaker 4>I think most people in the West.

0:47:11.920 --> 0:47:16.239
<v Speaker 3>Well, okay, but on this note, what is Iran's political economy?

0:47:16.280 --> 0:47:19.680
<v Speaker 3>You know, the story we just heard about chaos and

0:47:19.719 --> 0:47:24.320
<v Speaker 3>competing factions and all of that suggest for the future

0:47:24.480 --> 0:47:26.440
<v Speaker 3>of the Iran US conflict.

0:47:26.760 --> 0:47:29.160
<v Speaker 5>I mean this, we see this right now, right there's

0:47:29.239 --> 0:47:32.640
<v Speaker 5>multiple factions inside Iran. There's kind of this hardline faction

0:47:32.760 --> 0:47:37.560
<v Speaker 5>that is really harshly attacking the presidents and the Foreign

0:47:37.640 --> 0:47:41.120
<v Speaker 5>minister for even having the temerity to sort of negotiate

0:47:41.120 --> 0:47:43.840
<v Speaker 5>this memorandum of understanding. There are people who kind of

0:47:43.880 --> 0:47:47.120
<v Speaker 5>still want inside Iran for this war to continue because

0:47:47.120 --> 0:47:50.320
<v Speaker 5>they really believe that Iran kind of had the US

0:47:50.360 --> 0:47:53.919
<v Speaker 5>on the back foot. And so I think in terms

0:47:53.960 --> 0:47:57.000
<v Speaker 5>of like how Iran's political economy looks going forward, I

0:47:57.000 --> 0:48:01.360
<v Speaker 5>think it's still quite early to say at this point,

0:48:01.400 --> 0:48:04.160
<v Speaker 5>just because they're still sort of in the midst of

0:48:04.200 --> 0:48:06.560
<v Speaker 5>this war really, and I think no one in around

0:48:06.600 --> 0:48:09.520
<v Speaker 5>right now is looking that far ahead. To the extent

0:48:09.520 --> 0:48:12.800
<v Speaker 5>that they are, it's very much towards China as the future.

0:48:13.560 --> 0:48:16.319
<v Speaker 5>Mohammed Bulger klibof the Speaker of Parliament, the guy who's

0:48:16.320 --> 0:48:19.879
<v Speaker 5>been kind of negotiating with JD Vance, he basically said

0:48:19.880 --> 0:48:22.240
<v Speaker 5>that as well. He said that, you know, we want investment,

0:48:22.280 --> 0:48:23.480
<v Speaker 5>but they want it from China.

0:48:24.239 --> 0:48:26.640
<v Speaker 6>Yeah. I agree. I think one thing that I want

0:48:26.680 --> 0:48:33.560
<v Speaker 6>to add is that again the different nature of these states,

0:48:33.600 --> 0:48:38.480
<v Speaker 6>like Trump is fighting at best for his legacy, but

0:48:38.520 --> 0:48:42.520
<v Speaker 6>the Islamic Republic is fighting for its survival. I think

0:48:43.120 --> 0:48:49.120
<v Speaker 6>that creates different pain tolerance and pain thresholds among these

0:48:49.120 --> 0:48:55.640
<v Speaker 6>two nations. For the US administration, the main problem is

0:48:55.680 --> 0:48:59.759
<v Speaker 6>now if the FED would increase the interest rate by

0:49:00.080 --> 0:49:03.799
<v Speaker 6>ego point twenty five percent, and the impacts of that

0:49:04.040 --> 0:49:08.000
<v Speaker 6>on mortgage rates and other things. And of course people

0:49:08.000 --> 0:49:11.239
<v Speaker 6>are unhappy with the rise of gasoline prices by a

0:49:11.320 --> 0:49:15.040
<v Speaker 6>dollar or so. But when you look at the Islamic Republic,

0:49:15.160 --> 0:49:21.439
<v Speaker 6>you see that the inflation is almost three figures, they're

0:49:21.480 --> 0:49:25.319
<v Speaker 6>not that much affected by that. The unemployment rate is

0:49:25.520 --> 0:49:29.120
<v Speaker 6>very high. I think when you compare the casualties for

0:49:29.200 --> 0:49:34.960
<v Speaker 6>the US administration, the death of eighteen soldiers is a lot,

0:49:35.040 --> 0:49:38.560
<v Speaker 6>is significant, while for the Islamic Republic, the killing, the

0:49:38.640 --> 0:49:41.960
<v Speaker 6>death of hundreds or thousands of soldiers is something that

0:49:42.040 --> 0:49:45.760
<v Speaker 6>can easily absorb. So I think that is the nature

0:49:46.040 --> 0:49:49.400
<v Speaker 6>of the conflict that at this stage, and I think

0:49:50.040 --> 0:49:53.319
<v Speaker 6>the reason is that the Islamic Republic has survived the

0:49:53.360 --> 0:49:58.480
<v Speaker 6>war so far is that its pain threshold is much higher,

0:49:58.719 --> 0:50:01.720
<v Speaker 6>and I think if it continues like that, I think

0:50:02.239 --> 0:50:05.000
<v Speaker 6>the US administration I don't think they will continue the

0:50:05.040 --> 0:50:07.879
<v Speaker 6>war because of the long term impacts it will have

0:50:07.920 --> 0:50:10.839
<v Speaker 6>on the economy. Of course, Trump is trying to keep

0:50:10.840 --> 0:50:15.040
<v Speaker 6>the price of oil under one hundred dollars per barrel.

0:50:15.280 --> 0:50:18.960
<v Speaker 6>Anytime that it touches one hundred, there is some talks

0:50:18.960 --> 0:50:26.120
<v Speaker 6>for negotiations and some positive through social posts. But I

0:50:26.120 --> 0:50:28.239
<v Speaker 6>think they can manage to do that for a bit,

0:50:28.280 --> 0:50:31.000
<v Speaker 6>but I don't think it can continue for a long time.

0:50:31.360 --> 0:50:33.600
<v Speaker 5>I think the pattern that we saw kind of throughout

0:50:33.600 --> 0:50:36.200
<v Speaker 5>reporting this book and that we really see now is

0:50:36.239 --> 0:50:39.839
<v Speaker 5>that for the Islamic Republic, the economy has never been

0:50:39.880 --> 0:50:43.120
<v Speaker 5>an end goal in and of itself. It's focused on

0:50:43.160 --> 0:50:45.840
<v Speaker 5>it to the extent that it's a means to a

0:50:45.920 --> 0:50:49.080
<v Speaker 5>broader end goal of self sufficiency or you know, some

0:50:49.200 --> 0:50:51.960
<v Speaker 5>kind of like drawing some sort of ideological strength from it,

0:50:52.320 --> 0:50:55.640
<v Speaker 5>but in terms of actually focusing on the economy at

0:50:55.640 --> 0:50:58.920
<v Speaker 5>the expense of, for instance, some of its ideological goals

0:50:59.400 --> 0:51:02.360
<v Speaker 5>that has ever been in its patterner of behavior. And

0:51:02.640 --> 0:51:04.840
<v Speaker 5>there are former officials like, don't you know have to

0:51:04.880 --> 0:51:07.160
<v Speaker 5>take it from us. There are former officials who have said,

0:51:07.239 --> 0:51:10.799
<v Speaker 5>you know, it's time to set aside our ideology and

0:51:10.840 --> 0:51:14.000
<v Speaker 5>our foreign policy and focus on the economy, which would

0:51:14.040 --> 0:51:17.239
<v Speaker 5>mean bringing in foreign investment, which would mean coming to

0:51:17.320 --> 0:51:19.879
<v Speaker 5>some final accord with the US that would really lift

0:51:19.880 --> 0:51:23.480
<v Speaker 5>sanctions that we can actually move on and grow the economy.

0:51:23.920 --> 0:51:27.239
<v Speaker 5>And whoever's been in power at any point, mostly any

0:51:27.280 --> 0:51:30.640
<v Speaker 5>commony for thirty seven years, but before that, Holmania, of course,

0:51:31.080 --> 0:51:34.160
<v Speaker 5>has not taken that bet. For them, the important thing

0:51:34.200 --> 0:51:38.120
<v Speaker 5>has always been around's ideology. And I think unless there's

0:51:38.120 --> 0:51:41.439
<v Speaker 5>some drastic change, I don't necessarily expect that to change.

0:51:41.480 --> 0:51:43.120
<v Speaker 5>I would need to see a lot more evidence of

0:51:43.200 --> 0:51:45.920
<v Speaker 5>that actually, you know, shifting before I would kind of

0:51:45.960 --> 0:51:47.160
<v Speaker 5>change my assessment on that.

0:51:47.480 --> 0:51:50.520
<v Speaker 2>All right, Jegen and Portosog, thank you both so much

0:51:50.560 --> 0:51:55.200
<v Speaker 2>for coming on the podcast. Absolutely fascinating discussion. Yeah, really

0:51:55.239 --> 0:51:56.440
<v Speaker 2>appreciate you taking your time.

0:51:56.560 --> 0:51:57.799
<v Speaker 6>Thank you I reading Jake.

0:51:57.960 --> 0:51:58.919
<v Speaker 5>Thank you both so much.

0:52:11.560 --> 0:52:14.400
<v Speaker 4>Tracy. I really enjoyed that conversation. I learned a lot.

0:52:14.680 --> 0:52:18.600
<v Speaker 2>I really did mean what I said in the conversation,

0:52:18.960 --> 0:52:21.839
<v Speaker 2>which is that I do think a lot of American

0:52:22.200 --> 0:52:26.759
<v Speaker 2>or Western like negotiators and thinkers just sort of like

0:52:26.880 --> 0:52:30.439
<v Speaker 2>constitutionally find it hard to believe that people in much

0:52:30.480 --> 0:52:33.319
<v Speaker 2>of the world actually believe in things and aren't just

0:52:33.440 --> 0:52:35.360
<v Speaker 2>like going to be transactional at the.

0:52:35.400 --> 0:52:35.879
<v Speaker 4>End of the day.

0:52:36.040 --> 0:52:37.920
<v Speaker 3>That's why my first question was about how much of

0:52:37.920 --> 0:52:42.640
<v Speaker 3>the Ranian Revolution was driven by economic interests versus actual geology.

0:52:42.880 --> 0:52:45.440
<v Speaker 3>But yeah, I totally take the point. I also thought

0:52:45.480 --> 0:52:48.360
<v Speaker 3>it was interesting. You know, when we think about emerging markets,

0:52:48.360 --> 0:52:51.879
<v Speaker 3>there's plenty of investment that goes into emerging markets, right,

0:52:51.960 --> 0:52:56.359
<v Speaker 3>but it feels like the stability point definitely stands out.

0:52:56.520 --> 0:53:00.640
<v Speaker 3>You know, you can invest in an authoritarian regime totally

0:53:00.880 --> 0:53:03.799
<v Speaker 3>if you know you're bribing the right person and you're

0:53:03.840 --> 0:53:06.319
<v Speaker 3>not going to have all your assets seized in like

0:53:06.360 --> 0:53:10.239
<v Speaker 3>two weeks or something by a competing faction. But when

0:53:10.280 --> 0:53:12.800
<v Speaker 3>it comes to Iran, it does seem that factional element

0:53:13.040 --> 0:53:16.160
<v Speaker 3>that chaos, as they described it, has been an issue.

0:53:16.320 --> 0:53:16.560
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:53:16.600 --> 0:53:19.000
<v Speaker 2>I thought the point about the sort of like you know,

0:53:19.040 --> 0:53:23.080
<v Speaker 2>in China, there's the Chinese government and then there's the party, right,

0:53:23.880 --> 0:53:26.760
<v Speaker 2>and they're not the same thing, but they're closely linked.

0:53:26.840 --> 0:53:28.839
<v Speaker 4>But the idea that like, okay, what if you have like.

0:53:28.800 --> 0:53:32.560
<v Speaker 2>A more multiplayer element where it's like, okay, you have

0:53:32.719 --> 0:53:35.840
<v Speaker 2>some entities that are like truly like this is the state,

0:53:36.280 --> 0:53:40.240
<v Speaker 2>and there are state interests, and then you have irgc interests,

0:53:40.320 --> 0:53:43.399
<v Speaker 2>and then you have religious interests, et cetera, and then

0:53:43.400 --> 0:53:46.239
<v Speaker 2>you really do get this sort of like potential misalignment.

0:53:46.280 --> 0:53:48.040
<v Speaker 4>I love the analogy of like the sort of.

0:53:48.000 --> 0:53:51.840
<v Speaker 2>Like petitioning the various Greek gods is like a way

0:53:51.880 --> 0:53:55.719
<v Speaker 2>to think about a sort of like problem of establishing

0:53:56.080 --> 0:53:59.400
<v Speaker 2>that stability. It's almost like, okay, like a gangster state

0:53:59.640 --> 0:54:01.759
<v Speaker 2>might not be the worst thing in the world if

0:54:01.760 --> 0:54:04.960
<v Speaker 2>there were just one gang, right, but right if there's just.

0:54:04.880 --> 0:54:06.520
<v Speaker 3>One producers clip that No.

0:54:06.640 --> 0:54:09.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, like if there's just one gang. Now you think

0:54:09.000 --> 0:54:11.439
<v Speaker 2>about like they think of like a mafia story, right,

0:54:11.800 --> 0:54:13.600
<v Speaker 2>part of the problem it is like Okay, I'm gonna

0:54:13.600 --> 0:54:16.240
<v Speaker 2>pay this this mafia. I don't really need the protection

0:54:16.360 --> 0:54:19.000
<v Speaker 2>from my store. This this guy comes and said, I'll

0:54:19.000 --> 0:54:23.440
<v Speaker 2>protect your store from damages for something insane a mile

0:54:23.600 --> 0:54:25.600
<v Speaker 2>the thing. I don't need it, but whatever, we're gonna.

0:54:25.360 --> 0:54:25.920
<v Speaker 4>Pay it, you know.

0:54:26.320 --> 0:54:28.839
<v Speaker 2>But then the moment there's three gangs and each of

0:54:28.880 --> 0:54:32.720
<v Speaker 2>them wants that cut, then it becomes like a seriously.

0:54:32.800 --> 0:54:35.040
<v Speaker 3>And also they get mad at you for paying one

0:54:35.080 --> 0:54:38.120
<v Speaker 3>of them. Yeah, So like I prayed at the temple

0:54:38.160 --> 0:54:41.160
<v Speaker 3>of Zoos, and because I sacrifice to go to Zeus,

0:54:41.200 --> 0:54:43.640
<v Speaker 3>Poseidon is now upset at me, and now I have

0:54:43.680 --> 0:54:45.840
<v Speaker 3>to appease beside it. And then I'm going to appease Poseidon,

0:54:46.080 --> 0:54:48.040
<v Speaker 3>and then I don't know, Aphrodity or whoever is going

0:54:48.080 --> 0:54:49.440
<v Speaker 3>to get mad, which just goes on and on.

0:54:49.560 --> 0:54:52.880
<v Speaker 2>Right, if your only issue was the sacrifice that Zoos demanded,

0:54:53.040 --> 0:54:55.200
<v Speaker 2>you might not like it, but you could form a

0:54:55.239 --> 0:54:59.080
<v Speaker 2>business with those expectations, and that would probably be you

0:54:59.200 --> 0:55:01.160
<v Speaker 2>find a way to serve. But then you have this

0:55:01.320 --> 0:55:04.000
<v Speaker 2>multi level thing and you can't form that expectation.

0:55:04.280 --> 0:55:07.000
<v Speaker 3>Did I ever tell you about in Tokyo a friend

0:55:07.040 --> 0:55:11.120
<v Speaker 3>of mine had a bar, tiny bar, ten seats at

0:55:11.160 --> 0:55:15.000
<v Speaker 3>the bar, and he got extorted by the yakuza. Really yeah,

0:55:15.040 --> 0:55:17.560
<v Speaker 3>And so what happened is there were only ten seats

0:55:17.560 --> 0:55:20.160
<v Speaker 3>at the bar. He noticed. First of all, he got

0:55:20.160 --> 0:55:23.000
<v Speaker 3>a request for money for protection money from the yakuza,

0:55:23.080 --> 0:55:24.200
<v Speaker 3>and he said, no, I'm not going to pay it.

0:55:24.200 --> 0:55:26.120
<v Speaker 3>I'm a foreigner. I don't have to blah blah blah.

0:55:26.239 --> 0:55:30.080
<v Speaker 3>Next night, a single Japanese man comes into the bar,

0:55:30.440 --> 0:55:34.640
<v Speaker 3>orders one beer, sits at the bar all night, taking

0:55:34.719 --> 0:55:36.920
<v Speaker 3>up that seat. Not a big deal, plenty of other

0:55:36.960 --> 0:55:41.760
<v Speaker 3>people around. Next night, two people come in. Two Japanese

0:55:41.800 --> 0:55:44.400
<v Speaker 3>salary men, sit there, order one beer, don't leave the

0:55:44.520 --> 0:55:47.840
<v Speaker 3>entire night. You can see where this is going. Within

0:55:47.920 --> 0:55:50.600
<v Speaker 3>ten days, all of his seats were being taken up

0:55:50.640 --> 0:55:56.800
<v Speaker 3>by single customers ordering single beers. And it didn't happen

0:55:56.840 --> 0:56:01.640
<v Speaker 3>anymore after that. So, you know, I will say.

0:56:01.200 --> 0:56:02.560
<v Speaker 4>For how the problem was avoided.

0:56:02.640 --> 0:56:03.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, forward exactly.

0:56:04.200 --> 0:56:06.520
<v Speaker 4>That's a good story. Anyway. I'm really glad we did

0:56:06.560 --> 0:56:07.839
<v Speaker 4>that episode. I learned quite a bit.

0:56:07.920 --> 0:56:09.960
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. All right, shall we leave it there, Let's leave

0:56:09.960 --> 0:56:11.799
<v Speaker 3>it there. This has been another episode of the oud

0:56:11.840 --> 0:56:14.399
<v Speaker 3>Loots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at

0:56:14.440 --> 0:56:15.640
<v Speaker 3>Tracy Alloway.

0:56:15.400 --> 0:56:16.400
<v Speaker 4>And I'm Jill Wisenthal.

0:56:16.480 --> 0:56:18.760
<v Speaker 2>You can follow me at the Stalwart, follow our producers

0:56:18.800 --> 0:56:21.960
<v Speaker 2>Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen armand dash Ol Bennett at Dashbot,

0:56:22.040 --> 0:56:25.600
<v Speaker 2>Calebrooks at Kelbrooks and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano.

0:56:25.920 --> 0:56:28.200
<v Speaker 2>And for more odd Laws content, go to Bloomberg dot com.

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