1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,439 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM. 5 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Brendan Glasheem. Good to be back with 6 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward. 7 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 3: We're here for. 8 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,919 Speaker 1: Best bets on this week's UFC card. UFC Fight Night 9 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:44,480 Speaker 1: with Lamos and jen dy Roba as the headline fight. 10 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: The women's strawweight main event at the UFC Apex in 11 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 1: Las Vegas will dive right in Sean Zillo. The main 12 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: event features again Lamos and Jandy Roba. 13 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 3: Looking at the current line right now. 14 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: Lamos at plus one fourteen, Jandy Roba at minus one 15 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: thirty five. Overall breakdown of this women's straw strawweight as 16 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: far as how it might go and how you like 17 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: to bet it. 18 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 4: I think it's interesting to see the under or the 19 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 4: ends inside the distance. Juice to minus two hundred For 20 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 4: a woman's straweight fight, this is a relatively binary fight. 21 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 4: Jandahoba the better grappler, Lamosh the better striker. Lamos can 22 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 4: grapple a little bit, and she has some decent submission 23 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 4: skills as well, but typically women's strawet bouts go to 24 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 4: a decision as sixty six percent clip two thirds of 25 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 4: them reach a decision. You can adjust for the apex 26 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 4: apex fights and inside the distance about twelve to fifteen 27 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 4: percent more than your regular size ocgon. So take twelve percent, 28 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 4: take fifteen percent away from the sixty six percent. You're 29 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 4: still at fifty one percent. Take another five percent away 30 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 4: for them being binary. Right For a striker relatively striker 31 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,559 Speaker 4: versus grappler fight where finishes tend to be a little 32 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 4: bit higher, you get down a forty five percent, you're 33 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 4: still not down to that forty percent applied mark at 34 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 4: plus one fifty for the fight to reach a decision. 35 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 4: So I kind of like it goes to decision of 36 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 4: plus one fifty. 37 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 5: I think I'd prefer the over three. 38 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 4: And a half rounds at minus one fifteen because I 39 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 4: could see Verna getting a late finish here, and I 40 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 4: know that's kind of how Billy is betting it as well. 41 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 4: I've seen some takets this week talking about Lemosh as 42 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 4: the live side. I could not disagree more. Verna has 43 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 4: proven her five round cardio. She has an INVICTA title 44 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 4: fight from twenty eighteen against Mazuki in a way Mazuki, 45 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 4: now a UFC fighter with incredible UFC wins split decision. 46 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 4: To me, it was a clear forty nine forty six 47 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 4: or fifty forty five for Verna. I think she showed 48 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 4: great cardio and tenacity in the championship round. She showed 49 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 4: that she can can carry her cardio and continue to 50 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 4: grapple and wrestle and stay on top of opponents for 51 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 4: twenty five minutes. She's really like a dog on the 52 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 4: bone when she gets that single leg and even he 53 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 4: her UFC fights where she's lost her fight against Mackenzie Dern. 54 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 5: She let Dern up late in the fight. 55 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 4: If she had stayed down on you know, maintained top position, 56 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 4: I think she wins that fight. She has another close 57 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 4: twenty nine to twenty eight loss against oh Amanda Reebash, 58 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 4: where where Verna won the first round, couldn't land takedowns 59 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 4: in rounds two and three, but Rebash, you know, shoot 60 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 4: a black belt, good grappler in her own right. We've 61 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 4: seen Lemosh get taken down by opponents. We've seen her 62 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 4: tire out late in the fight, and we've seen her 63 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 4: stay on her back as she gets tired and unshown 64 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 4: an unwillingness to get up, so that there could be 65 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 4: slight difficulty for the judges in some rounds here judging 66 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 4: damage against control because Verrena, even when she gets top position, 67 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 4: doesn't necessarily prioritize ground to pounds. She's looking to keep 68 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 4: her opponents flat on their back, and she's really strong, 69 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 4: and she's good at maintaining top position, especially for you know, 70 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 4: a strawwege like. She's very strong at keeping her opponents down, 71 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 4: which you don't typically see in the one hundred and 72 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 4: fifteen pound division. But in the same respect as Lemos tires, 73 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 4: she tends to accept those positions. 74 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 5: And lay on her back. 75 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 4: So I think Lemosh is gonna be dangerous here early 76 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 4: as she typically is, but as this fight goes, I 77 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 4: think I prefer Verna's her tenacity. I think I prefer 78 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 4: her cardio, and I think I prefer her style for 79 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 4: winning minutes down the stretch of this fight. So I'm 80 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 4: a little bit interested at minus one thirty pre fight, 81 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 4: but I wouldn't bet it pass that I projected this 82 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 4: closer to minus one forty. 83 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:23,239 Speaker 5: I'm gonna elate. 84 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 4: I'm going to try to wait for a better number 85 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 4: if I cannot, probably prefer like minus one twenty on 86 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 4: Verna pre fight, But in the same respect, I can't 87 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,679 Speaker 4: imagine a scenario where you don't get a better live 88 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 4: price after rounds one or round two. I feel like 89 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 4: Lemosh almost has to win one of the first two 90 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 4: rounds here. Give them the stylistic matchup and her striking, 91 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 4: and you know her strength, and she's just very dynamic 92 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 4: and very powerful, and I feel like it's it's almost 93 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 4: a given that she's going to win one of the 94 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,840 Speaker 4: first two rounds, if not both of them, unless Verna 95 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 4: finishes her. So live after round one or after round 96 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 4: two on Verna at a better price than one thirty, 97 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 4: which you can get pre fight, and then also the 98 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 4: over tho over three and a half rounds at minus 99 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 4: one fifteen as I said, or the goes to decision 100 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 4: at plus one fifty. That's how I'm looking to play 101 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 4: this fight. I think the live angle on Vernon might 102 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 4: be the best of the bunch. 103 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 3: Seeing some two and a half rounds. 104 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 1: Zilla like juice to the over is that do you 105 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: not play do you have a price point I'm assuming 106 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 1: on that or would you rather play at three. 107 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 4: And now yeah, I think I'd rather play the three 108 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 4: and a half at minus one ten instead of the 109 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 4: two and a half at minus one ninety. That's a 110 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 4: big discrepancy in the in the pricing between the two 111 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 4: and a half and the three and a half. I 112 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 4: guess the market is, you know, thinking like Verna never 113 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 4: been five round or never been in a five round 114 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 4: fight in the UFC. But going back watching that in 115 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 4: VICTI fight, even though it's from five six years ago, 116 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 4: I'm pretty confident that she's gonna be able to maintain 117 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 4: her style across twenty five minutes. And also I should 118 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 4: mention too having the smaller cage in the Apex I 119 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 4: think helps her more than it helps Lemosh. 120 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 6: Like being able to. 121 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 4: Pursue that grappling, getting getting into clinch positions, getting in 122 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,160 Speaker 4: tight I think all of that in the smaller cage 123 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 4: sort of helps her. So yeah, the over the over 124 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 4: I think is miss priced given the history of strawweight 125 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 4: fights in the UFC. But also they are in the 126 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 4: small cage and it's a pretty binary matchup, so I'd 127 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 4: rather be taking a less juice price on it to 128 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 4: go longer, because I think if there's a finish here, 129 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 4: it's likely a quick lamosh ko or a late Verna submission. 130 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 5: I guess an early Verner submission is. 131 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 4: Live as well, but I think it's I think it's 132 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 4: probably like a you know, an inside of one and 133 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 4: a half or a between rounds four, rounds three and 134 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 4: a half in round five the finish comes out. I 135 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 4: think those middle rounds are a bit safer, so as 136 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 4: a result, that's why I'd rather lay the the minus 137 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:01,160 Speaker 4: one ten minds this one fifteen the three and a 138 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 4: half as opposed to taking the minus one ninety and 139 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 4: the two and a half. 140 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: Very good, all right, Billy, let's say you as far 141 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: as this women's strawweight goes. 142 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 6: Yeah, we're seeing it pretty similar. 143 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 7: I can't believe people are thinking lemosh is the live 144 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 7: side here. I guess the only logic or the only 145 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 7: way you could get there is if Janderoba is selling 146 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 7: out for takedowns and not getting them. Like I say 147 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 7: it all the time, it's tiring to get a takedown, 148 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 7: but your reward is you get to kind of chill 149 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 7: on top and make your opponent carry your weight, you 150 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 7: spending just as much energy to then be back at 151 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 7: the feet where they can punch you is very tiring. 152 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 7: That's possible, I suppose, I just don't see it happening, right. 153 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 7: I think Danderoba gets her takedowns. As far as the total, 154 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 7: I think I prefer the go to decision over the 155 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 7: three and a half. We saw Lemosh survive five rounds 156 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 7: with Wiley Jang somehow. I mean, she's I've never seen 157 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 7: someone take that much damage and make it at a 158 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 7: weight class like this before. So I don't see how 159 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 7: Jandy Robo finds a finish if was unable to late 160 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 7: in the fight, unless you know she out techniques her 161 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 7: with submissions or something. But she's not really aggressively hunting subs. Typically, 162 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 7: she's usually happy to win round With that said, from 163 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 7: a pre fight standpoint, any kind of light angles on Janderoba. 164 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 7: The four or five decision split bad is close to 165 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 7: plus two hundred. Any kind of same game parlay you 166 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 7: want to cook up with over a certain number of 167 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 7: minutes in Janderoba or obviously vern Alive. I mostly agree 168 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 7: with Sean on that. I said the same thing last 169 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 7: week with Rose, and then she won the first two 170 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 7: rounds pretty easily and we never really got the opportunity 171 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 7: to come back in so I'm probably gonna overcorrect and 172 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 7: take a late prop and that's plus one ninety when 173 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:40,079 Speaker 7: I could have got her live at a better number 174 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 7: either way, though, I mean we're seeing the same way. 175 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 7: Kind of didn't matter with Rose even if you paid 176 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 7: a higher price after two rounds last week, because you 177 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 7: only paid the juice when you lose, and. 178 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 6: She covered pretty easily. 179 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 7: I see this honestly very similar fight in terms of 180 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 7: one fighter is dangerous early. Laimosh is far more dangerous 181 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 7: than Cortees was early for a lot of reasons. But 182 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:02,439 Speaker 7: if we get through that first round or two, I 183 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,959 Speaker 7: don't see how Lamoch wins this. So yeah, mostly in 184 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 7: lockstep with Sean, a little bit more aggressive I think, 185 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 7: and how I would play how late it's going to go. 186 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 6: But other than that, we're on the same page. 187 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 5: Vernon the over one and a half is about plus 188 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 5: one twenty. 189 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 4: That's about what i'd hope to get live after round one, 190 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 4: like plus one fifteen something like that round one, round two, 191 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 4: you know around there, I'd hope to get minus between 192 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 4: minus one fifteen and plus one fifteen on her, you know, 193 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 4: in a fight that's one one after round two. That's 194 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 4: that's roughly what I target, So it's not bad vernon 195 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 4: the over one and a half at plus one twenty. 196 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 7: Yeah, and obviously anyone out here listening you want to 197 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 7: make a little bit to try to win a lot, 198 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 7: take care by decision. You want to you know, have 199 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 7: a safer option, go over one round. You can play 200 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 7: with that, especially with the same game parlays and the 201 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 7: various betting. 202 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 6: Options out there to try todjust for. 203 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 7: Your risk level, how much you want to pursue this 204 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 7: or whether you think you're going to be live watching 205 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 7: this one tomorrow and what's not a great card top 206 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 7: to bottom, So if you don't want to be up 207 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 7: watching it live, that also is a reason to look 208 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 7: into some of these props. 209 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 3: Man card is on ESPN two. 210 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:08,679 Speaker 1: Oh, ESPN, I beg your pardon, and the prelims are 211 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 1: on E two coming your way on Saturday the twentieth. 212 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 3: Okay, let's go to the middleweight fight. 213 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: Of the night, Brad Tavares Jung Yong Park latest line 214 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: here Park the favorite, it might have won sixty two 215 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: Tavares plus one thirty six Zerillo. 216 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 3: How would you look at how do you assess this fight? 217 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 1: Break it all down, and how would you like to 218 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: bet all that comes out of the wash? 219 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 6: Yeah. 220 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 4: I think it's Tavera's their past. Given the stylistic nature, 221 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 4: Park really doesn't separate when he can't get takedowns on opponents. 222 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 4: And Brad Taveras has great takedown defense eighty one percent 223 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 4: for his career. He's also historically very durable, but he's 224 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 4: now getting late in his career. I believe he's not 225 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 4: been knocked out in his last two losses. And Park 226 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 4: isn't considered, you know, a guy with one punch ko power, 227 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 4: but he has hurt opponents in recent fights. He dropped 228 00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 4: Albert Dariah before choking about He had Gregor Rodriguez very 229 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 4: badly hurt completely on skates in the octagon before Rodriguez 230 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 4: charged at him and ended up knocking out Park, which 231 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 4: was surprising because Park is generally considered to be extremely 232 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 4: terrible his nicknames the Iron Turtle. 233 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 7: And. 234 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 4: Given the stylistic nature of Teas and how he fights 235 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 4: and how he keeps most of his fights close, if 236 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 4: this goes off fifteen minutes, absolutely it's it's Tevera's is 237 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 4: the side in terms of going to be more competitive 238 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 4: than plus one thirty five it's probably a pure coin 239 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 4: flip if they kickbox for fifteen minutes, and I would 240 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:37,440 Speaker 4: probably consider betting Tavera's indecision only markets. I'm curious what 241 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 4: his decision only price would be if it's around, you know, 242 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 4: and even pricing. I think that would be a potential 243 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 4: play as well, just because, as I said, I give 244 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 4: them a pretty equal chance of winning a decision. I 245 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 4: have the decision only line right here, and Brad is 246 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 4: plus one ten, so I think that might be the 247 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 4: way to play him, decision only at plus one ten 248 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 4: as opposed to money line one thirty five, because I'm 249 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 4: going to bet Parked win by knockout of plus four 250 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 4: eighty or inside the distance have plus two to fifty. 251 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 4: I just think the trajectories of their careers, Brad coming 252 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 4: off of the recent knockout, not sure how he's gonna 253 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 4: look after that, and just absorbing damage worse as he 254 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 4: wears on longer in his career. So I think if 255 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 4: you're gonna bet park I wouldn't bet the money line. 256 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 4: I would go ahead and bet his finish props. As 257 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 4: he said, ko plus fourraty inside the distance plus two 258 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 4: to fifty, and if you like Taveras. I would bet 259 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 4: him on the decision only money line at plus one ten. 260 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: Okay, Billy, you you're more willing to go to the 261 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: money line price. Why for Tavares? 262 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,319 Speaker 7: I am and lardly just because I think it does 263 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 7: go to a decision, so I want the extra twenty 264 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 7: five cents of payout. 265 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 6: Sean makes a ton of sense. I don't hate that. 266 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 7: I'm just getting a little greedy on the plus one 267 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 7: thirty six we talked off air. I didn't do a 268 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 7: luck ratings this week. I took a little time off 269 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 7: with the MLB All Star Break. This is one that 270 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 7: certainly would have featured in there, because if you look 271 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,839 Speaker 7: at the last full of fights for Park, he's four 272 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 7: and one in his last five. One of those was 273 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,679 Speaker 7: a gift split decision over Eric Anders that I think 274 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:08,439 Speaker 7: Sean and I both bet on Anders in that fight, 275 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 7: if I recall correctly, we're both a little bit annoyed 276 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 7: at how that one went. And then he has three 277 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 7: finishes over like extremely lower tier UFC guys. I believe 278 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 7: the guys he beat outside of Andrews are four and 279 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 7: nine combined in the promotion in Park has historically he's 280 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:24,680 Speaker 7: looked really good against guys who he can take down 281 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 7: and are lower level UFC fighters. Tavares is neither one 282 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,439 Speaker 7: of those things, right. He's mid tier I think at 283 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 7: this point in his career, but has fought some tough guys. 284 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 7: Most of his losses are against ranked opponents or guys 285 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 7: who are ranked at the time, and as Sean pointed out, 286 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 7: excellent takedown defense. So unless you think Park really sees 287 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,079 Speaker 7: an uptick in power, he's got zero knockout wins in 288 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 7: the UFC, one knockdown in ten fights. I see that angle, 289 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 7: and at the price you're getting that, I'm not going 290 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 7: to hit on Sean for that. Yeah, it's probably more 291 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 7: likely than the plus four hundred or whatever he's getting, 292 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 7: but I don't think it's likely enough that's going to 293 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 7: push me off off the Tavar's money line and onto 294 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 7: the decision only. I think he's a better technical fighter. 295 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 7: He's gonna win more minutes on the feet. He might 296 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 7: drop a moment or two to Park, but typically we 297 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 7: reward the fighter with most of the rounded situations like 298 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 7: that unless he's badly hurt. And again, yeah, we've seen 299 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 7: Tavarus badly hurt, but it's against guys like g Rod 300 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 7: Bruno Silva. You know, high level strikers are very dangerous 301 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 7: guys at least that have proven that a lot more 302 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 7: than Jeni Young Park has and his UFC career excellent. 303 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: Three your breakdowns for the main event in the Fight 304 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 1: of the Night that's the men's middleweight Tavars and John 305 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 1: Young Park. The Action Network podcast Everybody is Brought to 306 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: You by bet MGM used the bonus code action when 307 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: signing up to get up to fifteen hundred dollars back 308 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 1: in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. 309 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 3: For new users in Arizona. 310 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, 311 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming, 312 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: terms and conditions apply. It must be twenty one plus 313 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: gambling problem called one eight hundred humbler. 314 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 3: Let's head two underdogs. How is the week for dogs 315 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 3: this week? 316 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 4: Sean didn't find many that I love, but also there's 317 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 4: a lot of fights that are fairly closely lined. You know, 318 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 4: we don't have a lot of minus don't have any 319 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 4: minus four hundred favorites on this car. The biggest favorite 320 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 4: is Miranda Maverick at minus two fifteen. So a lot 321 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 4: of plant your flag fights, which is good, you know, 322 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 4: As I said, not a lot of underdogs that I like. 323 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 5: But if you would around picking prices, one of. 324 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 4: Which would be Lucy Putolovo, who you can get at 325 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 4: plus one hundred even money, but you can also bet 326 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 4: her two about minus one ten minus one fifteen. This 327 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 4: is Podolova's second UFC stint, and prior to rejoining the UFC, 328 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 4: and then also since Rejunia rejoining the UFC, she's shown 329 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 4: a lot more urgency in terms of pursuing grappling. She's 330 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 4: she's prioritized and proactively tried to take opponents down. She's 331 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 4: also facing an opponent in a lot of Carolina who 332 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 4: one doesn't have great grappling. Her takedown defense has improved, 333 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 4: but once you put Carolina down, she's a bad grappler. 334 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 4: Number two, and I think more importantly, Carolina isn't really 335 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 4: used to size parody. She's faced a lot of fighters 336 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 4: in the division who are notably smaller than her, and 337 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 4: I mean even some of the ones who are smaller 338 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 4: than her have completely outgrappled her like Molly McCann, But 339 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 4: I mean Carolina typically used to having a pretty significant 340 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 4: reach advantage, like four or five inches of reach on 341 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 4: her opponents a few inches of height. She's two inches 342 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 4: shorter than Poodolova. She does have a two inch reach advantage, 343 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 4: but the way Poodolova is going to fight here, it's 344 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 4: probably not going to matter to a significant degree. Even 345 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 4: if these two strike it out for fifteen minutes, I'd 346 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 4: still make Poodolova like forty percent in this matchup. I 347 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 4: think she can stay relatively competitive in the striking match, 348 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 4: but she has all the grappling upside here too. She 349 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 4: may only need one takedown to win the fight, she 350 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 4: more likely needs one takedown in each round to win 351 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 4: the fighter, at least one in separate rounds to secure 352 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 4: at least two of the three rounds. But yeah, I 353 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 4: think Poodolova plus money all of the grappling upside and 354 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 4: showing a different style than she has in her prior 355 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 4: UFC run, I think she's a little bit undervalued on 356 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 4: the money line. Going back to Billy's luck ratings, I 357 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 4: know he said he didn't write it up this week, 358 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 4: but I'd have to imagine Pootolova would have popped up, 359 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 4: considering since she's one and two and her second stint 360 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 4: in the UFC. But one of those losses was the 361 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 4: Joscelyn Edwards were all fifteen media members and eighty eight 362 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 4: percent of fans scorecards gave the decision to Poodolova. Somehow, 363 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 4: Edwards won a twenty nine to twenty eight split, and 364 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 4: that's one of the worst scorecards of the past few years. 365 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 6: So I think. 366 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 4: Poodolova also a bit unlucky in terms of, you know, 367 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 4: her results, and I think people wikikapping this just looking 368 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 4: at the record. You know, it's very easy to overlook 369 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 4: the fact that she probably won that fight against Edwards 370 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,640 Speaker 4: and it's just fighting in a different style and looks 371 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 4: much better in this stint. So Poodolova my favorite underdog, 372 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 4: you know, plus money favorite favorite pick them aside from 373 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 4: my best bet. And then I just want to co 374 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 4: sign to a degree on one of Billy's picks with 375 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 4: Hyder Remeal. I'm probably going to be a betting a 376 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 4: meal pre fight and then live betting against them after 377 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 4: round one. 378 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Billy, go ahead with a meal first 379 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: and then we'll go to it your next one. 380 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, I was gonna give a Sean a hard time 381 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 7: about putting a plus one hundred fights his underdog, and 382 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 7: then he was nice to me about my pick. So 383 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 7: I'm gonna not do that, even though I just kind 384 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 7: of did. But yeah, Hider or mil versus oh god 385 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 7: one Jung Yong Lee. I just don't understand how you 386 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 7: confidently say either these fighters is a heavy favorite in 387 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 7: this They've both looked really really good against pretty bad competition. 388 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 7: Neither of them has fought anyone that I would say 389 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 7: is super high level. J Lee's eleven and one. He 390 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 7: won the Road to the UFC last year and then 391 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 7: got into the UFC formally with the win over Yijah. 392 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 6: It was a split decision win. 393 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 7: I think I would have given him the win too, 394 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 7: but it's one that you wouldn't have been mad about 395 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 7: really either way, having watched that fight back. So he's 396 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,239 Speaker 7: got one fight against an actual UFC fighter. He won 397 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 7: her decision against Blake Builder howder a mill Is nine 398 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,439 Speaker 7: to zero looked right in the Contender series. His UFC 399 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 7: debut is against Fernie Garcia, who took it on like 400 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 7: three days notice and Howder and Mil looked great, picked 401 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 7: him apart on the feet, standing TKO, everything you could 402 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 7: ask for, and yet he's plus one sixty his highest 403 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 7: plus one sixty five here. I think this fight from 404 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 7: a pre fight standpoint should be a lot closer. As 405 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 7: Sean pointed out, Jong Lee probably gonna look better down 406 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 7: the stretch, how to a Mill probably gonna look better early. 407 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 7: Even that, though it's hard to say constantly because we 408 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 7: haven't seen him really pushed by a guy that would 409 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 7: normally consider UFC level. There's a chance both these guys 410 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 7: stick around in the UFC and look at home in 411 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 7: these divisions. There's a chance neither of them do. We'll 412 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 7: get a little bit more information about that here and 413 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 7: then Hider a Mil plus one sixty five. If you 414 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 7: get Lee coming back at any point live plus money 415 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 7: or close to it, I'll probably arbitrage out with that lock. 416 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 6: In a profit either way. That's I'm looking at this one. 417 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 7: Other one I like Thomas Peterson is US one ten 418 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:04,480 Speaker 7: against Mohammed Usman. Peterson was a two time state champion 419 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 7: wrestler in high school, national champion, National junior college champion. 420 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 7: I should say not NCAA is Usman has never even 421 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 7: faced a takedown attempt in the UFC against any of 422 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 7: his opponents, which I think has been by design in 423 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 7: terms of matchmaking. Obviously with his last name, they were 424 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 7: trying to make something out of Mohammed Ousman. They always 425 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 7: need heavyweights, they need a guy that we've at least 426 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 7: heard of his brother. That's kind of the end of 427 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 7: it here with Peterson, who lost his UFC debut. You 428 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 7: know it could have been some pre fighter UFC debut Jitters. 429 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 7: I'm kind of willing to look past that. If he 430 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 7: can wrestle and take Ousman down early, he's got a 431 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 7: really good shot here. And then Usman just doesn't finish anyone. 432 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 7: His only UFC finish was against that Pauga on the 433 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,399 Speaker 7: Tough Finale. You guys have heard me talk about what 434 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 7: I think about recent seasons are tough. 435 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 6: And Pauga was just a chubby two. 436 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:50,919 Speaker 7: Fiver who wanted to be on the show and then 437 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 7: immediately went down to two h five. 438 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 5: And he was winning that whole fight too. 439 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 6: Mm hmm, yeah, when I was the only guy that right. 440 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 7: And it's just Usman doesn't is big and strong and 441 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 7: scary as he looks, he doesn't seem to have true 442 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 7: heavyweight power, and he doesn't really have any elite skills. 443 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 7: Where we've got one guy who might not be great overall, 444 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 7: but he's got one thing he can do, and he 445 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,800 Speaker 7: should probably have. Peterson should probably have about twenty twenty 446 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 7: five pounds on Usman. 447 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 6: I guess when two's. 448 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,919 Speaker 3: Sixty one is his listed weight? Holy crap? 449 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 6: For which guy? 450 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 3: Peterson? 451 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's usually it has been at least 452 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,120 Speaker 7: coming in a little bit on the lighter side for heavyweight. 453 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 7: I don't see him getting Peterson often, basically is my point. 454 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 7: Once Peterson gets down there. So again, if it looks 455 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 7: like Peterson's gassing outgoing for takedowns, but one around, just 456 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 7: like the other fight, if I could arbitrage this by 457 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 7: coming back on the other side, I absolutely will. I 458 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 7: wanted to be on the Peterson plus three and a 459 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 7: half because even when Oosman wins, decisions are not that clear. 460 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 6: Books have caught up to that. 461 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 7: They made that minus one ninety so they know that 462 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 7: this is likely to be twenty nine to twenty eight someone, 463 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 7: which means obviously, when we think that's gonna happen, we'll 464 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 7: take the plus money side. 465 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 1: Okay, very good. There are your dogs for this week. 466 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 1: Let's go to the prop market. Where are we looking 467 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: this week? 468 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 3: Sean? 469 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,639 Speaker 4: A couple of late props Bill Ljo round two and 470 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 4: round three against du Hoo Choi, the Korean superboy. Choi 471 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:14,439 Speaker 4: is not won a fight in the UFC in eight 472 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 4: years layoff for military service, came back pretty competitive in 473 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 4: his last five with Colin Nelson. But this is the 474 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 4: guy who nine of his fourteen career wins have come 475 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 4: inside of round one. He typically fades after round one, 476 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 4: and Bill Aljo on the other side, typically build into 477 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 4: rounds two and rounds three. So I think Choi clear 478 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 4: pre fight side, likely to win round one, al Jo 479 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 4: clear live bet after round one, likely at a better price, 480 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 4: and then his round two prop at plus one thousand, 481 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 4: his round three prop at plus fifteen hundred, respectively in 482 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 4: the smaller cage in the Apex senor Perfecto going to 483 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 4: pick it up down the stretch and hopefully find a 484 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,159 Speaker 4: late finish here. But I think the live bet, you know, 485 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 4: certainly the best way to play it. I'll have some 486 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 4: sprinkles though on the ten to one and fifteen to 487 00:22:58,680 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 4: one late props, respectively. 488 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:01,919 Speaker 3: Okay, Billy, what do you got for props? 489 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 6: Yeah? I love Sean's. 490 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 7: I was gonna use one of those for prop squad 491 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 7: till I saw him put this in this piece, And 492 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 7: I might still if Sean's not doing it. But yeah, 493 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 7: I mean it's the obvious. That's how he finishes people. 494 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 7: It's by hitting them many times, not hard, right, he 495 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 7: doesn't hit you once hard. 496 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:20,160 Speaker 6: It's over and over and over. So love that. I'm 497 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:21,200 Speaker 6: looking at Steve Garcia. 498 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 7: I'm kind of torn between inside the distance and even 499 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 7: money and knock out A plus one twenty five. The 500 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,239 Speaker 7: knockout is obviously far more likely. I don't know if 501 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,679 Speaker 7: Garcia has ever won a fight by submission. He is 502 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 7: not in the UFC, but he has five knockdowns across 503 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 7: his last three fights, and he's fighting. Okay, let's make 504 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 7: sure I get the right one here? 505 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 6: Do Huchoi? Am I right there? Sean? Nah, I'm sorry you. 506 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 7: Just mentioned Yeah. Yeah, that's what threw me off. We're 507 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 7: both betting on troys to get finished in this one, 508 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 7: just different ones. He's fighting Song Wuchoi, who has been 509 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 7: knocked down five times in his last three fights. 510 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 6: I've talked about it on here before. 511 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 7: I kind of think knockdowns to knockout for one of 512 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 7: those regression type things, like kind of like batting average 513 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 7: on balls and play in baseball, where it should equalize 514 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,919 Speaker 7: over long enough time period based on the refs you 515 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 7: get and the fight IQ of the person trying to 516 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,880 Speaker 7: finish you, and all those other things. Where Troy has 517 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 7: only been finished once in those three fights, and he's 518 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:19,880 Speaker 7: won one of the three, but he's been knocked down 519 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 7: five times across them, been knocked down in each of them, 520 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,440 Speaker 7: and against far less dangerous strikers than Steve Garcia, who's 521 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 7: just out here flattening people and looks like one of 522 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 7: the best power punchers at least in the division. The 523 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 7: price difference between inside the distance and knockout is not 524 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 7: that much. I'm always scared that somebody gets dropped, gets clipped, 525 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 7: and then he dives on a rear naked, and that's 526 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 7: how we finish it instead of the knockout, which is 527 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 7: probably why I go that way. But if you want 528 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,199 Speaker 7: to get greedy, you get extra twenty five cents of 529 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:48,120 Speaker 7: payout on that. 530 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 6: The knockout at plus one twenty five makes sense too. 531 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,439 Speaker 4: Fight is minus three hundred to NBAKO, and like minus 532 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 4: four hundred and ten inside the distance. So yeah, I 533 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 4: think you picked a side you like and bet the 534 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 4: finish props. And I would have loved to have bet 535 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 4: the NSKO at like even minus one fifty here, but 536 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 4: it's far too juice. 537 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, as far as best bets are concerned, are these 538 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 1: final bets. I have a feeling what Billy's going to say, 539 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 1: but Zerillo best bet. 540 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 4: I love Bruno Silva this week, so it took him 541 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,159 Speaker 4: at even money. I probably would take him up to 542 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 4: about minus one fifteen even minus one twenty, and I 543 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,439 Speaker 4: also like Bruno Silva to win inside the distance at 544 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 4: plus one twenty. This is flyweight Bruno Silva, not middleweight 545 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 4: Bruno Silva. 546 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,640 Speaker 5: We have both in the UFC. 547 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 4: But you know, Brunosolva lost his first three UFC fights 548 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 4: really tough competition, has come back and proven himself against 549 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:42,199 Speaker 4: the lesser fighters. He's Henry se Hudo's former chief training partner. 550 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,919 Speaker 4: He ended up moving camps recently to ATT and this 551 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 4: is an ATT versus ATT fight. Him and Cody Durden 552 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 4: are training partners. By all accounts, Bruno Silva took the 553 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,240 Speaker 4: fight first and Cody Durden didn't want to take the 554 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 4: fight and then accepted the fight. So that may tell 555 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 4: you as much as you need to know, considering these 556 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 4: guys have trained together and one was very willing to 557 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,479 Speaker 4: take the fight and the other was a little bit 558 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 4: more hesitant to take the fight. But if you know, 559 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 4: if this was just a pure grappling match, Dirden is 560 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 4: the better wrestler, and he has better cardio to wrestle 561 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,159 Speaker 4: for fifteen minutes, just like pure wrestling. But Silva is 562 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 4: the better jiu jitsu practitioner. I think he's the better 563 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:25,439 Speaker 4: overall grappler, and he's clearly the better striker, So advantages 564 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 4: for me in two out of the three areas of MMA. 565 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 4: Better grappler, better striking. Durdin if he just wants to 566 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,880 Speaker 4: wrestle and try to stay on the legs and try 567 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,960 Speaker 4: to make this greasy and try to tire Silva out, 568 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:39,879 Speaker 4: I think he's capable of doing so. 569 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 5: But when it. 570 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 4: Comes down to the judging optics, it's going to be 571 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 4: Durden going for control, going for takedowns, maybe occasionally hunting 572 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 4: for a submission attempt. But Silva is going to be 573 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 4: prioritizing damage throughout the fight, whether he's on his back, 574 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 4: whether he's scrambling to get up and return to the 575 00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,159 Speaker 4: feet and keep striking, and I think he is significantly 576 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,679 Speaker 4: more finishing upside as well. I projected this fight to 577 00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 4: end inside the distance more than fifty percent of the time, 578 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 4: or about fifty percent of the time. You can get 579 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 4: the end inside the distance at plus one thirty five, 580 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,200 Speaker 4: get the under two and a half rounds at plus 581 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 4: one sixty five. I think those are both solid plays too, 582 00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 4: but I would put more of the finishing equity with Silva's. 583 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 4: So that's why I bet his finish prop in particular. 584 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 4: But I wouldn't fault you for just taking the under here. 585 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 4: There should be a high phase high pay's relatively chaotic fight. 586 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 4: I tend to like fly weight unders. You know, you 587 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 4: look at the career finish rate for men's fly weight, 588 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 4: as I discussed earlier, women's stroutweight like a sixty six 589 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 4: percent decision rate. Men's flyweight goes to decision at a 590 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,000 Speaker 4: fifty four percent clip, So it's it's a bit higher 591 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 4: than you'd think, but it's it's actually even with like 592 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 4: the featherweights. So for some reason, men's flywight, like the 593 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 4: speed is at a higher rate where I think it 594 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 4: leads to more finishes than you would expect. There's like 595 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 4: a like every weight class you move down, the finish 596 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 4: rates decrease, except then you get to one forty five, 597 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 4: one thirty five, one twenty five and there's sort of 598 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 4: a plateau. So there's something about the flyweights with the 599 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 4: speed where it just leads to more chaos and more finishes. 600 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,119 Speaker 4: But I think Silva, if I had to define him 601 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 4: as a fighter, he's definitely a finisher and I like 602 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 4: him to get it done inside the distance here, so 603 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 4: plus two forty inside the distance. Don't really want to 604 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 4: choose between submission or ko And I really like his 605 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 4: money line up to about minus one fifteen as well. 606 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,720 Speaker 1: Okay, I think that's the current number right now out 607 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 1: there on Silva. That money it's moved to minus one fifteen, 608 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: away from the plus one hundred. 609 00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 3: Okay, Billy final bet, best bet. 610 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 7: No, I think I'm going to surprise you here, although 611 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:41,680 Speaker 7: I'm not sure which one you meant. This is actually 612 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 7: a best bet for me. 613 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: Well, I thought final bet for sure, because you did 614 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,959 Speaker 1: because to the card. Yeah, earlier that you were if 615 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 1: wondering people would watch, But you know. 616 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 7: I don't know No, I think this is actually a 617 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 7: much better betting card than watching card, as the question 618 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 7: used to ask us sometimes. All right, agree, there's a 619 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 7: lot of fairly close line fight and you can bet 620 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 7: minus one there against Kurt Hollibaugh, which I will take 621 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 7: without any other information. If you tell me Kurt Hollibaugh 622 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 7: is fighting a guy who's been in the UFC before 623 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 7: and we can get minus one thirty against him, I'm 624 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 7: going to take that. Another one of these guys coming 625 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 7: off a recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, Hollibah is 626 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 7: officially one in five in the UFC across two stints. 627 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 7: His only win was the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 628 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 7: against another guy who wasn't really a UFC fighter, right, 629 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,000 Speaker 7: kind of like we were talking about with Yijah on the. 630 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 6: Road to the UFC. 631 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 7: It was like their way into the USC didn't really 632 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,719 Speaker 7: make them actual UFC fighters. Hubbard came back and went 633 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 7: to fight against Michael Figlak, some guy that nobody's ever 634 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,479 Speaker 7: heard of. We could play what happened next game forever. 635 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 7: I just haven't seen it from Kurt holliba at this level. 636 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 7: Cannon Krushowski lost his UFC debut, but he came up 637 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 7: a weight class on short notice against Elves Brunner and 638 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 7: got knocked out. Every time we've seen him other than that, 639 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 7: he's looked awesome. He's four years younger, so not exactly 640 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 7: a young guy at thirty three, but starting to matter 641 00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 7: right when we have thirty three versus thirty seven, seems 642 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 7: to be the better athlete, more toolsy, more dangerous, finished 643 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 7: the vast majority of his fights. He has just two 644 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 7: decision wins in his fifteen total wins, where hollibas largely speaking, 645 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 7: I would say more of a point fighter or picks 646 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 7: up submissions off his back. That's not a great way 647 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 7: to be against anyone with decent grappling because they either 648 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 7: not going to put you there or just not give 649 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 7: you anything to look for. So all things considered, you 650 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,560 Speaker 7: give me that opportunity to better ans Kurt Hollibaut. We're 651 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 7: not gonna have many of them. He's thirty seven and 652 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 7: one in five in the UFC. I'm gonna take it 653 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 7: at minus one thirty. 654 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 3: All right, excellent, There you go. 655 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 1: There's your UFC Fight Night breakdown. They're back at the 656 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 1: Apex in Las Vegas. 657 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 3: This coming weekend again. You can catch. 658 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 1: The main card on ESPN and the prelims are on 659 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 1: ESPN two. Just beforehand on Saturday night, find Sean Zarrillo 660 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 1: and Billy Ward in the free to download award winning 661 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,720 Speaker 1: Action Network out We have more UFC betting content over 662 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 1: on the Actionnetwork website actionnetwork dot com in the app 663 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,640 Speaker 1: as well. Best of luck this weekend, folks for Shonzilla, 664 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: Billy Ward, friended Glashee. We'll catch you next time you're 665 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast, presented last at MGM. 666 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 667 00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 668 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,960 Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler