1
00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:07,040
Speaker 1: Coming to you from fabulous Las Vegas. The right side

2
00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:10,000
Speaker 1: is the winning side. The late move is the correct move.

3
00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:14,320
Speaker 1: Sports betting capital of the world. We all know when

4
00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:17,640
Speaker 1: a sharp like me weighs in the lines move, it's

5
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:26,600
Speaker 1: a party for your ears. This is the buffet with

6
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,040
Speaker 1: Chad and Scooch. I want to buy that guy a buffet.

7
00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,559
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Buffet with Chad and Scooch. I

8
00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,400
Speaker 1: am Chad Moment from the Action Network on the phone

9
00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,720
Speaker 1: with me from the Orleans, representing all the board gaming

10
00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:45,600
Speaker 1: books in the state of Nevada and across the country.

11
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:52,000
Speaker 1: Ever inching closer to becoming bookmaker to the world, Mr

12
00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:54,840
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, How you doing, Scooch? I'm good? How are you?

13
00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,840
Speaker 1: I'm good. We have a very special guest on the show.

14
00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:03,960
Speaker 1: Did a huge, huge special guest, Bill Barnwell, NFL columnist

15
00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 1: for ESPN dot com. He has a story leading the

16
00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:13,040
Speaker 1: site right now, possibly the smartest NFL writer um in

17
00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:19,320
Speaker 1: the country, bringing together analysis and data and narrative and

18
00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:23,960
Speaker 1: film study in a very unique voice, all into one

19
00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:28,480
Speaker 1: nifty package. Bill Barnwell, how are you? Tremendous introduction Now

20
00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 1: I gotta live up to that though, I'm not sure

21
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,720
Speaker 1: I can pull that off. You don't have to do

22
00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:34,679
Speaker 1: it all at once. You can do it over the

23
00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:41,760
Speaker 1: course of the seasons. Hey Bill, how are you great?

24
00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:46,319
Speaker 1: I'm excited to talk about some NFL action. Looking forward

25
00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,000
Speaker 1: to it. Well, that's what we're gonna do today. So uh,

26
00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,720
Speaker 1: NFL preseason kicks off in Earnest over the next twenty

27
00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:57,080
Speaker 1: four hours. Um, I've already made I've already made two

28
00:01:57,080 --> 00:02:02,440
Speaker 1: bets on the NFL preseason scooter. I've actually I've already made.

29
00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 1: My first bet of the year was on the Bears

30
00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,160
Speaker 1: Ravens total. It was thirty two and a half when

31
00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,120
Speaker 1: I got it. I got it. I got as they

32
00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,040
Speaker 1: say in the biz, because I'm a sharp scooch. You

33
00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,040
Speaker 1: know this I do. You got to get the best

34
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,920
Speaker 1: of the number, right, and uh, I got that total

35
00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,520
Speaker 1: at thirty two and a half. It closed at thirty five.

36
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,800
Speaker 1: The game landed on thirty three. All right, So I

37
00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,880
Speaker 1: got it. I got it. I wanted my bet. It's

38
00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:40,000
Speaker 1: a nice way to kick off the season. It's a

39
00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:41,840
Speaker 1: great way to kick off the season. Nice use of

40
00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:45,920
Speaker 1: the pun And all I was thinking was, you know,

41
00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,000
Speaker 1: in the action in in uh, the action app our

42
00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,080
Speaker 1: app that anyone can download. Um, we have this great

43
00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:57,040
Speaker 1: feature where we have sort of a circle where if

44
00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,359
Speaker 1: you are winning your bet, then the circle is green,

45
00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,480
Speaker 1: and if the bet is sort of fifty fifty, the

46
00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:06,680
Speaker 1: circle turns orange, and if you are losing your bet,

47
00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,080
Speaker 1: the circle turns red. So for the entire game, my

48
00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,720
Speaker 1: circle was green. Uh, and then towards the middle of

49
00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:18,920
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter turned to orange. And like when Tyler

50
00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,600
Speaker 1: Bray gets the ball on like the four yard line

51
00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:25,160
Speaker 1: with four minutes left and the Bears are down by

52
00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,639
Speaker 1: god knows what and I'm losing my bet by less

53
00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:31,799
Speaker 1: than a touchdown, the circle is like blazing red and

54
00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,839
Speaker 1: I'm like, I can't fucking believe that my first bet

55
00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:39,200
Speaker 1: of the year and I am sweating this preseason game

56
00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,640
Speaker 1: is coming down to Tyler Bray on a field long

57
00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:51,560
Speaker 1: drive to to to hit the over. That's that's preseason.

58
00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,240
Speaker 1: I mean I watched everybody in the book. They were

59
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,400
Speaker 1: clamoring for football for the entire summer after after the

60
00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,800
Speaker 1: NBA stopped and then all they had to been on

61
00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,880
Speaker 1: his baseball. They just couldn't wait for that first preseason game.

62
00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:06,760
Speaker 1: And uh, and they were in the book doing the

63
00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:09,360
Speaker 1: exact same thing that you just described. I mean both

64
00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 1: the total and the side. We're both in play right

65
00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,760
Speaker 1: to the end, so depending on what number you've got,

66
00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:18,799
Speaker 1: um it turned out to be a pretty good results

67
00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,599
Speaker 1: for the for the book because we had everybody laying

68
00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,400
Speaker 1: two and a half by game time with the Ravens

69
00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:29,080
Speaker 1: on that one. So, uh, total wasn't too big of

70
00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,719
Speaker 1: a decision, but the side was pretty good for us. Bill.

71
00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:36,440
Speaker 1: Do you have a theory on betting preseason football? Theory

72
00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,839
Speaker 1: is I probably don't know what I'm talking about, so

73
00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,080
Speaker 1: I try to avoid it beyond I think looking at

74
00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,520
Speaker 1: the same sort of history when it comes to coaches

75
00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,520
Speaker 1: who are giving a significant effort relative to some of

76
00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,640
Speaker 1: the other coaches in the National Football League. Uh So,

77
00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,320
Speaker 1: I am strictly just day let's look at history guy,

78
00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,760
Speaker 1: when it comes to the preseason, I have a hunch.

79
00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:01,560
Speaker 1: I don't have enough faith that my hunch is very smart. Well,

80
00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,400
Speaker 1: I'm glad you bring that up, because so there's the

81
00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:08,839
Speaker 1: game on Thursday night. We're recording this podcast on Wednesday afternoon.

82
00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:13,080
Speaker 1: There's a game Thursday night. The Jets were opened as

83
00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,200
Speaker 1: two point favorites at home against the Falcons. The game

84
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,400
Speaker 1: I think is now three three and a half. I

85
00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,920
Speaker 1: think that the numbers going up. That's how much money

86
00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:25,760
Speaker 1: is coming in on the Jets. And my theory is

87
00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:30,080
Speaker 1: similar to what you just said, which is the Jets

88
00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,120
Speaker 1: kind of need to win even though it's preseason, in

89
00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,760
Speaker 1: that they are a team that is still in disarray,

90
00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,080
Speaker 1: that is trying to figure out who they are, that

91
00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,840
Speaker 1: is playing at home for a football starved crowd, and

92
00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,479
Speaker 1: they need to build optimism enthusiasm both within their ranks

93
00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,640
Speaker 1: but also amongst the fan daise. Whereas there playing a

94
00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:55,560
Speaker 1: Falcons team where Dan Quinn and Tom Demitrof just signed

95
00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,760
Speaker 1: contract extensions. They have a team in a battery of

96
00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:03,200
Speaker 1: Whoo Jones and Matt Ryan that is well established and

97
00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,479
Speaker 1: while they're developing still in the offense that Sarkisi and

98
00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,000
Speaker 1: Steve Sarkezi and you know brought in last year, they're

99
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,240
Speaker 1: in a we don't have to prove anything in the

100
00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,880
Speaker 1: preseason just to work out the kinks phase. So I

101
00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:17,840
Speaker 1: look at that and I think it's similar to what

102
00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,280
Speaker 1: you're saying about a new coach wanting to win. This

103
00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:21,880
Speaker 1: is a team that needs to win versus a team

104
00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:23,720
Speaker 1: that knows what the preseason is for give me your

105
00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,120
Speaker 1: take on that. I think the other thing I'd say

106
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,320
Speaker 1: here is that you look at the Jets depth chartered quarterback, Well,

107
00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,640
Speaker 1: their first during quarterback is Teddy Bridgewater, So I mean

108
00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,840
Speaker 1: they're they're going to be having an NFL caliber quarterback

109
00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,320
Speaker 1: played at that entire game at Josh McCown and Tenry

110
00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:40,800
Speaker 1: Bridgewater and Sam Donald, those guys are going to be

111
00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:43,800
Speaker 1: getting the snaps in this game. Falcon's roster and Matt

112
00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:46,280
Speaker 1: Ryan is going to play the first drive, He'll take

113
00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,960
Speaker 1: a seat. It will be Matt schob who does not

114
00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,360
Speaker 1: necessarily NFL califer quarterback at this appointment. It's Kurt Bankert,

115
00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,360
Speaker 1: Garrett Grayson. I believe the former Saints draft pickets on

116
00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:58,880
Speaker 1: the roster as well. So second half of that game,

117
00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,480
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Teddy bridge Water against some pretty mediocre

118
00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,120
Speaker 1: all quarterbacks and and certainly the justus I think one.

119
00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,000
Speaker 1: I also, you know, try and highlight Teddy Bridgewater in

120
00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:11,080
Speaker 1: advance of a possible trade during this preseason, So I

121
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,040
Speaker 1: think you have a pretty big advantage in terms of

122
00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,640
Speaker 1: quarterback play in that matchup. Wow, I didn't even think

123
00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,760
Speaker 1: of that, Scooch. Why is all the money coming in

124
00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,640
Speaker 1: on the Jets right now in a preseason game, that's

125
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,920
Speaker 1: a huge move. Well, I think you just described a

126
00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,920
Speaker 1: pretty good reason. You know there's two and you did

127
00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,120
Speaker 1: too as well. I mean, when you're betting preseason, I

128
00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:32,720
Speaker 1: think most of the sharps look at a couple of

129
00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,880
Speaker 1: different angles. One is are our coaches that are trying

130
00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,640
Speaker 1: to make an impression out of the gate, So you're

131
00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,400
Speaker 1: looking at some of the new coaches on the on

132
00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,840
Speaker 1: the team that's getting a couple of wins for for Moraley,

133
00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,160
Speaker 1: even though for for preseason means a little bit. But

134
00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:48,920
Speaker 1: then the depth of quarterback is one of the things,

135
00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,680
Speaker 1: like you just described sweating your your your first game

136
00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,520
Speaker 1: in preseason, it's whoever is in there in the fourth

137
00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,240
Speaker 1: quarter that's really going to make the difference. So if

138
00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:00,560
Speaker 1: you do have two or three real good quarterbacks that

139
00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:01,880
Speaker 1: you know we're going to be in there towards the

140
00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:03,920
Speaker 1: end of the game, that's going to make the big difference.

141
00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:11,080
Speaker 1: I feel vindicated right now. Well, because you're a sharp

142
00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:15,720
Speaker 1: That's why I was sharp. I wasn't even honestly, like

143
00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,800
Speaker 1: my logic wasn't even as good as Bills. And I

144
00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:21,880
Speaker 1: still feel like I was on the right right side.

145
00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,720
Speaker 1: It's almost like it's just instinct for me. At this point,

146
00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 1: I don't even need I don't even need the data.

147
00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:33,839
Speaker 1: I can just I can do it by feel. Now,

148
00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:35,640
Speaker 1: I will say in that game that we have about

149
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,040
Speaker 1: three times as many tickets on the Falcons as we

150
00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,559
Speaker 1: do on the Jets, but a lot more money because

151
00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:42,680
Speaker 1: we have the sharps on the Jets. So the money's

152
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:47,400
Speaker 1: on the Jets, but the more tickets are on the Salcons. Boom.

153
00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,160
Speaker 1: That's another angle. Huh. That's all I have to say

154
00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:59,600
Speaker 1: about that. I freaking love it, absolutely love it. Uh, Barnewell.

155
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,200
Speaker 1: Right now, there's a story on ESPN dot com written

156
00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,960
Speaker 1: by you, these NFL teams. It's a lead story on

157
00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:08,400
Speaker 1: ESPN dot com. That's a big deal. That is a

158
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:12,679
Speaker 1: huge website. Uh. And as someone who used to uh

159
00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 1: manage that particular product, I know what a big deal

160
00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,079
Speaker 1: it was. When you would file a story, everyone will

161
00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,200
Speaker 1: get excited because we knew we had something to anchor

162
00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:24,520
Speaker 1: the top of the page. Um. So it says the

163
00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,640
Speaker 1: headline is these NFL teams are copying the Eagles blueprint.

164
00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,160
Speaker 1: Tell me who's copying the Eagles? Blueprint and whether or

165
00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,199
Speaker 1: not they are going to be successful or they are

166
00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,920
Speaker 1: going to be unsuccessful. So I went through a couple

167
00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,559
Speaker 1: of different things. Obviously, think about the Eagles from last year,

168
00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,319
Speaker 1: are they really invested heavily on both sides of the

169
00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,000
Speaker 1: line of streamage? Offrontive line? It's a lot of free

170
00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,959
Speaker 1: agents traded producing Peter scres Ago, He's still on the roster.

171
00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,800
Speaker 1: Of course, defensive line, a ton of depth around Fletcher

172
00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,000
Speaker 1: Cox is a fantastic player, but none other defensive line

173
00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,840
Speaker 1: and even played I believe six of the snaps during

174
00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,680
Speaker 1: the regular season, so they were head on a rotation

175
00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,680
Speaker 1: eight guys playing for some of us stops are more. Uh.

176
00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:05,880
Speaker 1: You know that they put our weapons around their quarterback,

177
00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,840
Speaker 1: whether it was Carson Wentz or Nick Foles. Uh, they

178
00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,720
Speaker 1: didn't invest heavily at cornerback, things like that. So you

179
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:13,720
Speaker 1: look at look at that all together, look at whose

180
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,760
Speaker 1: copying at the most on offense. I think the sort

181
00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,640
Speaker 1: of obvious example might be the Chicago Bears, a team

182
00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,280
Speaker 1: that hired the Chief's offensive coordinator that mayge just was

183
00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:26,559
Speaker 1: the Eagles fit with Doug Peterson years ago. Uh, they

184
00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:28,720
Speaker 1: had a quarter they traded up for in Mitchell Drobisky,

185
00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,280
Speaker 1: UH Samley we Wus traded up for Carson Wentz, not

186
00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,400
Speaker 1: all elevens around him during his rookie season. During the sufseason,

187
00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,720
Speaker 1: of course, they invested a ton and left in Dowan, Robinson,

188
00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:41,840
Speaker 1: Taylor Gabriel, trade Burden and Eagle himself. They even signed

189
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,240
Speaker 1: Chase Daniel, which I'm not sure if that's part of

190
00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,120
Speaker 1: the Eagles plan necessarily, but it doesn't hurt that. I

191
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:50,320
Speaker 1: suppose UH sells really similarities there. And on the defensive

192
00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,120
Speaker 1: side of the ball, it's actually Tampa Bay, a team that,

193
00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:55,679
Speaker 1: of course it's difficult to kind of gage right now

194
00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:59,600
Speaker 1: because of Jameis Winston suspension, but they really invested heavily

195
00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,400
Speaker 1: in their defensive line out of a ton of players,

196
00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,400
Speaker 1: including bow Allen and Benning Curry former Eagles themselves traded

197
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,680
Speaker 1: for JP Pjs and Paul the Drill McCoy, who sort

198
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,839
Speaker 1: of reflected Cox and that dominant interior disruptor role, used

199
00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:15,080
Speaker 1: a first round pick on Vita Vea from Washington, and

200
00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,760
Speaker 1: then UH drafted a bunch of cornerbacks as well to

201
00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,360
Speaker 1: health out of the secondary. So UH defense that was

202
00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,960
Speaker 1: dead last and Football Outsiders d V a stat last year,

203
00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,520
Speaker 1: so a very bad defense by advanced metrics. But if

204
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:29,040
Speaker 1: they take a step forward, if they're not going to

205
00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,520
Speaker 1: be the last propep because that they could be twentieth,

206
00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,319
Speaker 1: maybe even sixteenth, they can improve to league average and

207
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,559
Speaker 1: you get Jameis went back with set team games. Suddenly

208
00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,560
Speaker 1: that team could be interesting. I'm not gonna say they're

209
00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:42,720
Speaker 1: gonna be a plug contender just because they're missing Winston

210
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,920
Speaker 1: for the first two games the season, but there is a, uh,

211
00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:48,640
Speaker 1: there is an opportunity for that team to kind of

212
00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,360
Speaker 1: take a step forward in a way that, uh, it

213
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:53,560
Speaker 1: might not seem on the surface. And I think they're

214
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,920
Speaker 1: copying in some of the ways what the Eagles did

215
00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,640
Speaker 1: in those at their defense in the last year. Alright,

216
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:04,000
Speaker 1: Barnwell has laid out like two really thoughtful ways that

217
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,480
Speaker 1: the Bears in the bus are trying to mimic what

218
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,480
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl champions did. How much of what he

219
00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 1: said went into the way you thought about the season

220
00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:17,360
Speaker 1: win totals for the Bears in the bucks, well, particularly

221
00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 1: for the for the Bears, it did, uh, And that's

222
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,040
Speaker 1: kind of what a lot of the talk surrounding the

223
00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,360
Speaker 1: season win totals. We're going to be that even though

224
00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:28,000
Speaker 1: the Bears were in a tough division that they were

225
00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:33,679
Speaker 1: still expected to uh overachieve and everyone's expectations. As far

226
00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,840
Speaker 1: as the season win tolls, we put up six and

227
00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:39,319
Speaker 1: a half, which seems like a pretty pretty high season

228
00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:42,079
Speaker 1: win total for a Bears team that you know, wasn't

229
00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,240
Speaker 1: very good last year. But uh, a lot of the

230
00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,200
Speaker 1: sentiment is that they're going to be I heard a

231
00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,120
Speaker 1: lot of talk about them actually being compared to the

232
00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,079
Speaker 1: way the Rams went from a team that was only

233
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,679
Speaker 1: supposed to win five or six games and ended up

234
00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:59,960
Speaker 1: winning eleven games. I think, uh, we're seeing a lot

235
00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,280
Speaker 1: of bets coming in on the over and the season

236
00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,839
Speaker 1: wind tolls, particularly for the Bears. I actually just thought

237
00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,240
Speaker 1: you were gonna say, we don't pay attention to any

238
00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:10,840
Speaker 1: of that. Who we we took a pencil, we took

239
00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,200
Speaker 1: we took a pencil of the paper, and we were like,

240
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,880
Speaker 1: this is the number. Yeah, now we do that too.

241
00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,839
Speaker 1: Now we're we're I've said this many times before, we're

242
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,200
Speaker 1: handicapping where we think the money is as very much

243
00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,040
Speaker 1: as much as we are handicapping what we actually think

244
00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,760
Speaker 1: the outcome is going to be. There they're both part

245
00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:35,240
Speaker 1: of the same process. So if if everyone's reading a

246
00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,880
Speaker 1: lot of the stuff that you guys are writing, then

247
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,480
Speaker 1: that's going to influence their opinion in terms of how

248
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:44,000
Speaker 1: how they're approaching these bets. So yeah, no, it makes

249
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,880
Speaker 1: a big difference. You're not You're not go ahead though. No,

250
00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,760
Speaker 1: it's an asking me, do you think are the Pencil

251
00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,720
Speaker 1: team that maybe get because they such have such a

252
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:54,960
Speaker 1: large fan base of the team that gets maybe a

253
00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,880
Speaker 1: little bit of a rational positivity on the overside that

254
00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:02,080
Speaker 1: make like a Cowboys or a perhaps if they were good,

255
00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,520
Speaker 1: I'd say, I say, yeah, so we see that with

256
00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:07,320
Speaker 1: popular teams when they're good, But then you also see

257
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,960
Speaker 1: the same thing during I mean the opposite during the downturn.

258
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,400
Speaker 1: So all those years that the Forts were really good,

259
00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:14,960
Speaker 1: you did see that bias. But then as soon as

260
00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,880
Speaker 1: they start cycling downwards in their and their team is

261
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,080
Speaker 1: on the downward trend, then you you actually see the

262
00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,800
Speaker 1: opposite where they're betting against them. I was just gonna

263
00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,280
Speaker 1: say that, Scooch. I know for a fact you're not

264
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:32,280
Speaker 1: reading anything anybody writes about because like you've never listened

265
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,080
Speaker 1: to your own podcast. You don't even know where I work,

266
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:36,960
Speaker 1: and chances are good you've never read the book that

267
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:40,040
Speaker 1: you wrote. That's true, but you know you're inside these

268
00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,720
Speaker 1: circles and you hear people talking about what they've read.

269
00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,640
Speaker 1: So there's that. Well, it's good to know that the

270
00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,640
Speaker 1: bookmaker of the world, who's the first doamado to fall

271
00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:55,520
Speaker 1: for a multibillion dollar industry, is going on hearsay. It's

272
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,680
Speaker 1: like buying stocks. When you hear a stock when you

273
00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,080
Speaker 1: hear stock tips, you know you it's sometimes it sways

274
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 1: your opinion on on what stocks you're gonna buy. When

275
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,520
Speaker 1: you're when you're listening to the experts talk, then that

276
00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 1: that's going to affect how you bet. And people wonder

277
00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:17,320
Speaker 1: why the country's in trouble. Listen, the Bears are at

278
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:21,400
Speaker 1: six and a half UM. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are

279
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,400
Speaker 1: at six and a half. I will say this, given

280
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,640
Speaker 1: the hype around the Bears, I am surprised that the

281
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,600
Speaker 1: Bears are still at six and a half, given the

282
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:34,320
Speaker 1: Jamis Winston scenario, and the fact that nobody thinks Dirk

283
00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,000
Speaker 1: Cutter is a very good coach and might be the

284
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,200
Speaker 1: first guy to be fired this year, and the fact

285
00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,480
Speaker 1: that generally the Bucks are just one of those you

286
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:42,840
Speaker 1: know scooches. You and I have discussed one of those

287
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 1: nondescript Southern teams that nobody really cares about. Um with

288
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,360
Speaker 1: a logo that I couldn't pick out of a lineup

289
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:53,280
Speaker 1: that is probably gonna change next year. So why are

290
00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,120
Speaker 1: the Bucks and the Bears in the same spot. I

291
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,560
Speaker 1: would have thought by now the Bears are probably inching

292
00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:01,200
Speaker 1: closer to seven, um maybe get you know, bigger money

293
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,160
Speaker 1: and bigger juice, and I would think the Bucks actually

294
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:08,000
Speaker 1: would have opened even a little bit lower. Yeah, the

295
00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,040
Speaker 1: Bears are inching up there, up to minus dollar forty

296
00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:14,240
Speaker 1: on the over, so they are, like I said, they

297
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,000
Speaker 1: are betting the over on that one. And and the Bucks.

298
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:21,080
Speaker 1: You know that division. Not every team can go over

299
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,760
Speaker 1: their win total because you have you know, the Falcons

300
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,840
Speaker 1: are at nine and a half, and the Panthers are

301
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,480
Speaker 1: at eight and a half, and uh and the Saints.

302
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,920
Speaker 1: It's impossible for all of them to go over. So

303
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,800
Speaker 1: so yeah, the the the Bucks would be the one

304
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 1: team that you would probably want to shade the under on.

305
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 1: I mean you go about that, well, thank you, I

306
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:45,920
Speaker 1: appreciate that. No, I mean you think about the Bucks

307
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,720
Speaker 1: and look at their schedule. I mean you think, okay, well,

308
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 1: too much winstin, get to spend it. The line is

309
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,000
Speaker 1: going to drop in, and you know obviously some of

310
00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 1: the money's gonna drop in. That would make sense. But

311
00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,160
Speaker 1: you look at those first few games the Bucks, they're

312
00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,120
Speaker 1: at New Orleans, when they host Philadelphia and host Pittsburgh.

313
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 1: I don't think they were going to win those games

314
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:03,400
Speaker 1: which came this Winston. So it might be a thing

315
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 1: where you know, you hear the news. I mean, like, okay,

316
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,200
Speaker 1: a lots of big reason to to sort of face

317
00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,119
Speaker 1: and puckaneers over the course of the entire season, But

318
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,720
Speaker 1: I don't think it really might have change there expectation dramatically.

319
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:16,320
Speaker 1: Just give them that it was so unlikely they're going

320
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 1: to win any of those three games. I feel like, Bill,

321
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,160
Speaker 1: you can appreciate and then debunk what I've done, which

322
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,960
Speaker 1: is in the NFC North I have gone on a

323
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:32,239
Speaker 1: record is picking the over ten over ten for the Packers,

324
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,320
Speaker 1: over ten for the Vikings, over six and a half

325
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:39,120
Speaker 1: for the Bears. I've gone under an alliance. Is any

326
00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 1: of that, is any of that actually mathematically possible? Can

327
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,440
Speaker 1: I can there be two teams in the division to

328
00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:48,560
Speaker 1: go over ten and another team to go over six

329
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 1: and a half. It's possible Alliance have to be pretty

330
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,399
Speaker 1: bad though. I mean they're talking about a really ugly

331
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 1: season for Detroit, which I guess is not out of

332
00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 1: the question, but between those two and I do feel

333
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 1: kind of strange saying that's given how Cooking were last year,

334
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 1: but I would I would be more skeptical of the

335
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,639
Speaker 1: Vikings going over ten wins and the Packers going over ten.

336
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 1: M Oh my god, I couldn't be more against you.

337
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 1: I couldn't been more against you. And I'm and given

338
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:18,160
Speaker 1: sort of the way you approach your storytelling, UM, I'm

339
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:19,919
Speaker 1: shocked you would say that. And let me lay this

340
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 1: out for you. And then Scooch, I want you to

341
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 1: tell me where the public is, which I know, but

342
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 1: where the sharps are because we had a great conversation

343
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 1: about the Vikings and they're Super Bowl futures in the

344
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 1: podcast last week. My feeling on the Vikings is that

345
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,919
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins is a much better quarterback than case Keenum

346
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:43,919
Speaker 1: and was lacking UH coaching support, emotional support, and human

347
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 1: resource talent support UM when he was in Washington. He

348
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 1: has that now in Minnesota in all three levels offensively,

349
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:56,440
Speaker 1: he was lacking consistent defensive support. In Washington has that

350
00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,439
Speaker 1: probably the best defense in the NFL. And I'm not

351
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:03,160
Speaker 1: talking about out the fewest yards allowed. I'm not talking

352
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 1: about their scoring defense. I'm talking about yards per play allowed.

353
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 1: You know, I know like betters love yards per play allowed.

354
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 1: They think it is the most relevant stat, the most

355
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,400
Speaker 1: revealing stat out of the box score, you can separate it.

356
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 1: It's the biggest signal in all the noise um and

357
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,920
Speaker 1: they dominate in that. And so to me, I feel

358
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,280
Speaker 1: like they got much better from an offensive perspective, and

359
00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 1: they still have the best defense in the league. Bill

360
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 1: speak to me, you want my my retort to that,

361
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 1: I want, I want your retort, and then I want

362
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 1: Scooch to tell me that I'm right and you're wrong. Bill,

363
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,240
Speaker 1: it's your show. So the ladder is probably gonna happen.

364
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 1: But here's what I say about the Vikings. I agree

365
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 1: with you. Kirk Cresin's obviously much higher floor to me

366
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:50,920
Speaker 1: than case Keenum does. Uh. It would not shock me

367
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 1: if the offense was better than it was a year ago.

368
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 1: The thing I would say is that you look at

369
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: that offensive line. You have multiple injuries already on that

370
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: offensive line, the Eastern's injured head Helpline's injured. Most injuries

371
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 1: could stretch into the regulation season, so I would be

372
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 1: concerned about that. Let's start there. The offensive line could

373
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,360
Speaker 1: decline well suddenly, then you're looking at an offensive might

374
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 1: not be as effective even with a better quarterback. Defensive

375
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 1: side of the ball, this was the healthiest defense in

376
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,360
Speaker 1: football the year, or according to Lead Football Outsiders Almanac,

377
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: which just recently came out, the healthiest defensive league third

378
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 1: down conversion rate of the best we've seen over the

379
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 1: last twenty three years. I have purple bar offense dated

380
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 1: going back to no defense, everyone better on third down.

381
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 1: Look at those defenses that were the top twenty five

382
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 1: defenses on third down, uh from the past twenty three years.

383
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 1: Following year, they were not as good on third down.

384
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 1: There they decline them on defense. I had an average

385
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 1: of about forty five points from the previous years, So

386
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 1: I could see the defense not being the best defensive

387
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,440
Speaker 1: football it being the fifth, the six, the seventh best

388
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,679
Speaker 1: defense in football. So take that step backwards. Suddenly, the

389
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 1: offense might not be able to make up for that lead.

390
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 1: And you throw in the division which you were ready.

391
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 1: You confirmed you think it's good as a division where

392
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 1: the Vikings from five one. Last year they played I believe,

393
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 1: all of two series against Aaron Rodgers, and you know

394
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 1: they had no trouble with Bredhunley in those two games.

395
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 1: I think they picked him off five times and something

396
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,640
Speaker 1: shut it out in one of those games. Uh, it's

397
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 1: gonna be a tougher slip for them in the NF

398
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 1: to North. So again, I don't think they're gonna get

399
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 1: a bad team, but it wouldn't shock me to think

400
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: they are an eight or nine win team, or maybe

401
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 1: even a ten win team, maybe in the eleven win team.

402
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 1: But that's a least within the range of possibilities for

403
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: me versus the defense you saw from the area. Listen,

404
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 1: take a position. The the total is ten and you

405
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 1: just said they could be an eight win team and

406
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 1: nine team attended. It's it's it's not a strong play

407
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 1: for me. I I wouldn't take a strong step on it.

408
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 1: But what what you said was you're taking Packers over

409
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 1: the Vikings over Bears over of those three beats, for

410
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 1: one that I would be most hesitant to take would

411
00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: be Vikings over Scooch. Ye give me the proof right now.

412
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 1: What's happening with the Vikings in the market. Oh, everyone's

413
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 1: betting the over. The wise guys are betting the over,

414
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: The public's betting the over. So you have a team

415
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 1: that that went well over their season win total last

416
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 1: year and essentially have the same team back with the

417
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:21,199
Speaker 1: upgrade on at the quarterback spot. So the sentiment is

418
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: that they should easily surpass or at least equal what

419
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: they did last year, and and at ten wins there

420
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:30,959
Speaker 1: seems to be a little bit of value there. So

421
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 1: the money money came in on the over. Um the one.

422
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 1: The one thing is they do have a couple of

423
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: tough road games. They play the Rams, Eagles, Seahawks to

424
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 1: Patriots on the road. So, uh, you look at the

425
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 1: schedule and you look at some of the games where

426
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 1: maybe they're small favorites or small underdogs, that those are

427
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 1: the games that are going to decide whether it is

428
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 1: a ten win season or an eleven win season. Wen't

429
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: ask you so? So the Vikings last year thirteen and three?

430
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 1: The cred of the quarterback? What were they posted at

431
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: to start the season? Happy yearly? Uh? Nine and a half,

432
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: So nine and a half, so already day designed is

433
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 1: a three and a half game decline from what we

434
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 1: saw a year ago. But the logic you just pointed

435
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 1: out there makes sense. Bring that guys, you one quarterbacks,

436
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: you know, quarterbacks upgraded, So it's I guess it's not

437
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 1: a surprise to me that they got a lot of

438
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: action on the over at that nine and a half,

439
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:24,919
Speaker 1: and then even a little bit it seems like a

440
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 1: ten and you hit it. I was just gonna say

441
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: the key thing, like when he said that it could

442
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 1: be a nine win season, ten win season, or eleven

443
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 1: win season. There's a big uh when when a game

444
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: is sitting right on the whole number of of ten,

445
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 1: you're getting a little bit more value betting either way

446
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: because there's a very good likelihood that they win exactly

447
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 1: ten games and you get your money back. So so

448
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 1: there's there's you know, a good chance there that that

449
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 1: the leader push or go over. Why did you send it?

450
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: Why did you said it at nine and a half?

451
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 1: That was last year, he was asking, but it opened

452
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 1: I'm asking this year, but it opened it nine and

453
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 1: a half This year he was asking about this year. Oh,

454
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: this year, I thought you I thought you were talking

455
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 1: about last year. What it was this year? Yeah, yeah, No,

456
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: this year we opened it at ten and then they

457
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 1: just betted up to ten over minus of dollar forty

458
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 1: It okay? Even ten, like ten is a three game?

459
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: Is a three game decline off of what you were

460
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 1: at of what they won last year? How do you

461
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 1: settle on ten? Why not ten and a half? Why

462
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 1: not eleven? Yeah? Just looking at the games, like when

463
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 1: you go through their schedule and you try to arrive

464
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,120
Speaker 1: at what the point spread would be in each particular game. So,

465
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 1: like I said, out of those those four kind of

466
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 1: pivot games where they're they're playing the Rams, Eagles, and Patriots, Uh,

467
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: you know, you're just trying to say, if they're a

468
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: three point or more underdog in those games, you expect

469
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:49,919
Speaker 1: them to lose those games, so you count them as

470
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 1: a loss. So when you run down the schedule, just

471
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 1: according to the point spreads, you arrive at at ten wins. Now,

472
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 1: obviously there's gonna be a couple of games where they're

473
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 1: either pick them or or plus or minus one, and

474
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 1: you just have to kind of, uh use a feel

475
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 1: of where the public's gonna bet. So we just how

476
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: you arrive at all the numbers on on the season

477
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 1: win totals. Bill, I don't know if we've ever talked

478
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: about this. This is a tangent for a second. This

479
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: is inside grant Land ESPN history right here in two

480
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: thousand eleven, Um, you would just moved to Vegas. You

481
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 1: were working for grant Land. Um, and I had just

482
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 1: taken over as editor in chief of ESPN the magazine,

483
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 1: but I was still doing my gambling column for ESPN

484
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 1: dot com. And I was excited that you were in Vegas.

485
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 1: And Um, I actually pitched I can't remember if I

486
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 1: pitched it to both Bill Simmons obviously of grant Land

487
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 1: and now the Ringer, Um, who's which is great stuff?

488
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: And both you know, obviously Grantland was amazing and the

489
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:56,479
Speaker 1: Ringer has incredible talent now too, and uh Rob King,

490
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 1: who was my boss at the magazine and has gone

491
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 1: on to more. And I said at ESPN, UM, I

492
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 1: pitched to them that Bill and I should do a

493
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 1: column competing against each other where I take everything I

494
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 1: know about how wise guys think and how bookmakers set

495
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 1: lines and how the market moves, and Bill should take

496
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 1: everything he knows about analyzing games through analytics and film

497
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 1: study and what he just knows as a football savant,

498
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: and we should see like who's better at it? Is

499
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: it the market and the bookmakers and the wise guys,

500
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 1: or is it Bill with his computer like brain and

501
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 1: ability for narrative. I feel like seven years and it

502
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 1: didn't happen because, like I think Rob felt, as he

503
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: appropriately felt, you're a little busy. You just took over

504
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: the magazine. I don't really think you can be managing

505
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 1: this right now. So it didn't it didn't really go anywhere.

506
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 1: But I feel like we're actually getting to do it

507
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: right now. Yeah. I think the fact that I don't

508
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: live in Vegas anymore should probably tell you how that

509
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 1: action would have gone and who would have won that

510
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: that side of that bet that here, I think it

511
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 1: would have been new. I could have looked like a genius.

512
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,119
Speaker 1: You still can? You still kind although I'm not going

513
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: to live in Vegas again this time around? Half happy

514
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 1: to be proven uh an idiot from the East Coast

515
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: as opposed to moving out there again. Well that might

516
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 1: be step number one. That pres yourn idiot. You left

517
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 1: the beautiful, sunny weather and cheaper lifestyle in Vegas for

518
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 1: eternal winter at a price that barely anyone can afford. Bill,

519
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: don't let him both like to walk all over people.

520
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 1: You gotta you gotta put him in his place once

521
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 1: in a while. Shut up the show. Yeah, I mean,

522
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I still remember. I still remember, you know,

523
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: some of the awful beats. I have that here, So

524
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: I won't I won't, of course, you know, I won't

525
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: Regalie with that these stories because everyone has them, and

526
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: then you know you can always throw them all. But uh, yeah,

527
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 1: it was. It was a year where I learned a

528
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: lot about how much I didn't know when it came

529
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,719
Speaker 1: to betting on stet in Vegas? What did you think

530
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: of living in Vegas and sort of following it as

531
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: a as a better That was a really smart thing

532
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: that you guys did, when Bill and you decided that

533
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: you were going to move out there and sort of

534
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 1: live in that environment and write about football from that perspective.

535
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: I remember, like a lot of it was you were

536
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 1: doing that, and then it morphed eventually into you're just

537
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,679
Speaker 1: writing about football and you're happen to be in Vegas.

538
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: But what was your what was your thoughts and experience

539
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: about being in Vegas like Scooch lives in Vegas like

540
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: a king, like an Italian potentate, and so, um, tell

541
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: me about your experience there. Well, I mean, you know,

542
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: when it came to football, obviously, it's such a you know,

543
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: you can't cover the NFL without thinking about it's on

544
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 1: a gambling perspective, even if you don't want a gamble,

545
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: just thinking about you know, how other people, how fans

546
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 1: are approaching it, and so, uh, you have to think

547
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 1: about it that way. You can't. You can't ignore that

548
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: element out if you're not doing the job, if you're

549
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 1: not at least acknowledging that this exists. And it's a

550
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 1: big part of like people watch the NFL. No different

551
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: to me than than fantasy football in terms of how

552
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: I might look at the NFL and how I think

553
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: about the NFL. So I think it was interesting because

554
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: I was there during the absolute you know, bottom of

555
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 1: the economy, bottom of the housing market in Vegas. You know,

556
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: I was living in the beer towers in in city

557
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: center just because uh, you know, it had basically all

558
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 1: people who wanted to invest in it. Uh. I decided

559
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: not to act with the house and double verse, and

560
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: so we had this gleaming, you know, brand new building

561
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: on Las Vegas Boulevard that was in percent occupied and

562
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: I would go days without seeing anybody in the elevator

563
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,719
Speaker 1: in the building. Uh. It was. It was a very

564
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: strange experience, but uh, you know, I think I learned

565
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: a lot about just do I watched the end of

566
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: games differently, and it's that's a little simplistic, but it's

567
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: also true. I mean, just in terms of the motivation

568
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 1: for players, the motivation for you know, fans watching it.

569
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 1: You know, I it really we really breathe life into

570
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: every moment of an NFL game, especially because you're right

571
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 1: at the time there was you know, you really had

572
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: the first sort of life setting coming into play when

573
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: it came to the books themselves, or you can finally

574
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: start standing on things in real time. Uh. It was

575
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 1: just a every moment meant more to me than it

576
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: did before I went to Vegas. Movebe I don't live

577
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: there and I'm not betting on games on a week

578
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: to week basis anymore. Uh. You know, I'm still thinking

579
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: about that. I'm still considering that when it comes to

580
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: evaluating how people play and moments that I would have

581
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: written off as that you know, it was garbage time

582
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: and cares like obviously it matters, obviously it's it's moving

583
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: millions of dollars whether you've be in Vegas or offshore

584
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 1: or or off the book. So uh, it really does.

585
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: It just makes every moment more meaningful in the NFL games.

586
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: To me, that's really cool. That little walkdown memory Lane

587
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 1: is brought to you by Grantland and ESPN the magazine.

588
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: Now back to our show. All right, you know what

589
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: said I I think it's going to be an interesting

590
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 1: shift to see how the media and journalists now cover

591
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: the games with the expansion of sports betting around the country.

592
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 1: And I'm not just talking about looking at a game

593
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 1: and saying, uh, you know, I think this team is

594
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: gonna win, and they're gonna win big, or they're gonna

595
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: win by more than the points bread. I just mean

596
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: more of more of an angle in terms of where

597
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: some value is. Like you never hear too many of

598
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 1: the talking heads on TV talking about a big, sizeable

599
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: underdog that's going to keep a game competitive and there,

600
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: you know, maybe some value. I'm looking at a team

601
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 1: that's you know, ten or twelve point underdog in the game.

602
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 1: I always find it funny when I watched that the

603
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: Fox pregame show, and I'm, uh, they're all giving their picks,

604
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 1: and every pick is exactly the same, the seven point favorites.

605
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: They're all picking that, and then when they picked their one,

606
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: their one underdog, it's usually a plus one underdog. It's

607
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: never a big sizeable underdog, you know. I was like, Wow,

608
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 1: you're really going out on a limb there, You know what, Scooch,

609
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I actually think that, uh, someone

610
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: should ditch their beautiful, bright, gleaming career at a major

611
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: media company like ESPN, where they're making more money than

612
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 1: they would ever need and would certainly have more than

613
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: enough to support their family. Uh, they should ditch all

614
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 1: that to go work for a startup media company in

615
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: the gambling space. Because I think I think my line

616
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 1: went that, Sorry, yeah, because San isn't he No, I was.

617
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: I was actually talking. I was talking about me. I

618
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 1: wasn't like being so plate is to like recruit Bill

619
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: on the podcast I'm talking about Okay, I yeah, I

620
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 1: get it. Now, it makes it makes sense to me

621
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: now I understand. Um, But I absolutely agree, and I

622
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,239
Speaker 1: do think that, uh it's gonna change when we think

623
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: about the game, and I think soccer fan, I watched

624
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: a ton of soccer. I've been to a lot of

625
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 1: games in England, for example, and it's it's such a

626
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: ubiquitous part of the culture there when it comes to

627
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: betting on soccer, you know, I mean you can bet

628
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: obviously on on games. Inside the stadium. You can bet

629
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: on the match, uh you know, from the concession stands.

630
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 1: Basically there are chaos. You can bet on the game, uh,

631
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 1: you know, the the side boards, the the digital sideboard

632
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: will has uh you know in running updates so you

633
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 1: can bet on stuff happening in real time. The commercials

634
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: will have updates for headtime commercials will have updates on

635
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: uh even the awesom who's scored first in the second

636
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: half that are catered to echo what happened in the

637
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 1: first half. So I mean there's you know it, it

638
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: really has permeated all elements of watching soccer. And and

639
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: so it would not shock me if that's going to

640
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 1: happen with the NFL over the next ten fifteen years.

641
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: And and I think that happens. You can't you can't

642
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: clear the NFL. You can't talk about the NFL without

643
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: acknowledging that that exists and not that this is what

644
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: you're gonna be a sharp. But I'm certainly not going

645
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: to be a sharp by any means, but you know,

646
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: at least being conversant when it comes to the language

647
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 1: of that and talking about games with that in mind. Right,

648
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,439
Speaker 1: agree with both of you. That is why I left

649
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 1: ESPN to help form the Action Network. Yes, you did.

650
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: Clearly it feels like you want to validate you. Yeah,

651
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 1: I wouldn't. I wouldn't mind it, you know I did, Chad,

652
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: that was a great, great move, and I'll tell you

653
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: that not seriously. You know what I left. I left

654
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: a lot behind. I wouldn't mind if someone every once

655
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: in a while was like, hey, you know what idea

656
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 1: your timing was. I mean, you you were able to

657
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: foresee what happened with the Supreme Court ruling. Their timing

658
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: was impeccable. I mean, you couldn't ask for better timing

659
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 1: with the start of the Action Network. I mean now

660
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 1: and now that sports betting is just opening up in

661
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 1: all these states, it's it's perfect. You're sitting in the

662
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:23,720
Speaker 1: catbird scene. I appreciate that. Ever, Ever, God, you guys,

663
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,800
Speaker 1: you shouldn't really, I don't. I appreciate you so in

664
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: such an unprompted way filling my head with good thoughts. Listen, Scooch,

665
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: I want us to each go through right now, and

666
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 1: I want to talk about um our two favorite season

667
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: wind total bets. You can go over, you can go under.

668
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 1: But I want to from each of us, and uh, Scooch,

669
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,879
Speaker 1: as you are giving us, as we are talking about these,

670
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: I additionally want you to give me UM how the

671
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: market is reacting to these particular bets. Bill, would you

672
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 1: like to go first? Do you need a minute to

673
00:35:57,880 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 1: think about it? You would you like me to go first.

674
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 1: I'm happy to do either. I would love for you

675
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: to go first, because I do need a minute to

676
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: think about my options. Here's what I would like to say.

677
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 1: I would like to say that number one, I love,

678
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: love Love, hold on, uh, let me just get to

679
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 1: the line here. The New York Giants, Um, Scooch, what

680
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: do you have in there right now? Well? I just

681
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: moved him yesterday to seven and a half, but they

682
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 1: were at seven. Oh man, you know what, I'll still

683
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 1: take him at seven and a half. I love the

684
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 1: Giants this year. I love the Giants on their future Um,

685
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: they were at fifty to one. I know, Scooch, you

686
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 1: moved them to twenty five to one off of a

687
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: ton of sharp money. Um. Also we didn't mention about

688
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 1: the Vikings. Just to close the loop on this is

689
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 1: that the Vikings were another team getting huge amounts of

690
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: public action, and their Super Bowl odds have dropped I

691
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: think from what like twelve to one to eight to one. Scooch. Okay,

692
00:36:56,440 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 1: So I love the Giants. I think um that Uh,

693
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 1: the Giants. You know, they were a train wreck of

694
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 1: a team last year, and I think that getting them

695
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 1: anything under eight to me, you guys sit the line

696
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: really low based on what the action was last year. Um,

697
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 1: and their offense can only be better because they don't

698
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: have a train wreck of a coach. Uh. Eli is

699
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 1: going to have more support in O'Dell being back and

700
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 1: in se Kwan Berkley. Um. I love what they've done

701
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: on defense. They've added alec Ogletree was one of the

702
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: better linebackers in football. So to me, this is a

703
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 1: team that's on the make. Like I don't remember the

704
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: last time, I think it since two thousand four that

705
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: the NFC East champ has repeated. And so while the

706
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: Super Bowl champ came out of there. I don't think

707
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 1: it's a done deal. The Eagles are going to be

708
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,720
Speaker 1: the team that repeats um. So I love the Giants

709
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 1: in the over and I'll take it at seven and

710
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: a half. There you go, tell me about the market, Scooch.

711
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: The market agrees with you, and that's why I went

712
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:06,240
Speaker 1: from seven, I've moved up to seven minus fifty seven

713
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: over minus seventy, and then finally yesterday we went to

714
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 1: seven and a half. We moved to a half a game,

715
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: and you're still laying a price on the over at

716
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: minus a dollar thirty. So I think a lot of

717
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: people agree with you. I think it was like everything

718
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 1: you just described is accurate, and everyone else feels the

719
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 1: same way. Is that wise guy money or is that

720
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: public money? It's mostly wise guy money that the public

721
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:32,720
Speaker 1: money really didn't start coming in until recently. The public

722
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:34,399
Speaker 1: kind of likes to follow a lot of the wise

723
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 1: guy moves, so they waited after these came out back

724
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: in April May, and they watched where some of these

725
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: line movements went, and then they and then the public followed.

726
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,439
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised it's wise guy money, given my stamps. Yeah,

727
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,280
Speaker 1: because you are such as sharp. Yeah. I have also

728
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: all over the Houston Texans. The Houston Texans as a

729
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 1: high number is eight and a half plus and but

730
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 1: the over is plus one thirties, so you're getting a

731
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 1: better deal. Um. Similar logic for me as the Giants. Uh,

732
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:10,320
Speaker 1: you're basically getting your two best players back. You're getting

733
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: two first round draft picks back in Deshaun Watson and J. J.

734
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 1: Watt Um. You already have one of the best receivers

735
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 1: in football and DeAndre Hopkins. I think Bill O'Brien is

736
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 1: a really smart coach who did a lot with nothing

737
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 1: last year. And Deshaun Watson last year, he was having

738
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 1: one of the best season rookie quarterback season in history,

739
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 1: and I loved him coming out of college. I'm a

740
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 1: Bears fan and I was desperate for the Bears to

741
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 1: draft him. I've always been a big believer in um

742
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 1: number of games you start in college being reflective of

743
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 1: success in the NFL, And to me, Deshaun Watson fit

744
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,360
Speaker 1: that Bill and he his trajectory is so much higher

745
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: than I think people can recognize. So I like the

746
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,479
Speaker 1: Texans over eight and a half. Give me some plus

747
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: money talk. Well, no, no plus money anymore. I mean

748
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 1: that was one of the ones that they did bet

749
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: pretty heavily on the over. So, uh, we're at eight

750
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 1: and a half over minus a dollar forty now, so

751
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 1: now it's minus money on the over. But you know,

752
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: just big question marks. Can can Deshaun Watson stay healthy? J? J. Watt?

753
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 1: I mean, those are the two big ifs with Houston.

754
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 1: But uh, I think most of the it's not a

755
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: heavily bet game or a heavily bet total, but the

756
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: sharps are on the over and this one, so they

757
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 1: feel that this team will stay healthy all season. Two

758
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 1: sharp picks from Chad Millman, because that's who you are.

759
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 1: I as we know, as we've already discussed and praised

760
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 1: me for, I can see the future. Bill Barnwell, m

761
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,800
Speaker 1: top that well. I agree with you. In the Eastant,

762
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 1: I gotta bet. I'm you know, the big move in

763
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: terms of uh, you know, the action on that side

764
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 1: makes sense to me. Not surprised. I do think the

765
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 1: upside they're super high. So with you on the Texans,

766
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 1: I don't know about the Giants. They were by my

767
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: I posted them on Twitter. My biggest under last year

768
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: was Giants under nine, and then I had Texans under

769
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 1: eight and a half and I got a little lucky,

770
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,399
Speaker 1: I think with the watched injury. But I still think

771
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 1: the you know, the instincts were right there in terms

772
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 1: of the Texans. So but this year, I'll throw two

773
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 1: unders out there, because you threw two overs out there,

774
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna go Panthers and a lot of

775
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 1: this there is nine hundred or under nine is minus

776
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,439
Speaker 1: one thirty. So I'm pretty comfortable at that, just because

777
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 1: I think they were an operated team last year by

778
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 1: the numbers, they had a nine point oh win uh

779
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 1: point differential, and look at the numbers there, and then

780
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 1: they were uh seven and one in games de side

781
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 1: of by a touch cdientner. Last, and I have to

782
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:59,879
Speaker 1: look at is the Panther's history between seventeen to see

783
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 1: a dependent The record is in on that performance in

784
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 1: one scored game, which is not going to be sustainable.

785
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 1: And then I don't think they got better for this offseason.

786
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 1: This is a team that lost Andrew Norwell, the first

787
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: team All Pro guard Darrell Williams starting my tackle has

788
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: probably done for the year, and if he plays, he's

789
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 1: not going to be the same guy. He was very

790
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 1: solid last year uh A team, and I've said a

791
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 1: lot of players in their mid to late thirties in

792
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 1: key roles, so it's tough to count on guys like

793
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 1: Greg Olsen Uh Ryan Khalil Uh to get stay healthy.

794
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 1: Thomas Davis another injury risk and also suspended for the

795
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: first four games of the season. And then I don't

796
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 1: love the fit of North Turner with Cam Diden in

797
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 1: this offense, especially an offense that has officie line issues. Now,

798
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 1: I don't trust them that passion tracks long enough to

799
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: get North Turner to run that downfield passing attack. I

800
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 1: think Cam's gonna make a few things happen, but I

801
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 1: have to admit I'm very skeptical dispensers team especially. I

802
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 1: think the Buccaneers are gonna be okay, and I think

803
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:57,359
Speaker 1: the falcon Men are still gonna be two very good

804
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 1: football teams. I to see them having a losing leson

805
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 1: this year pretty comfortably. So I would go under nine

806
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 1: there and feel pretty get about it, even at UH

807
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 1: even at thirty cents, and I'd also go under Tennessee

808
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 1: hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on uh. I

809
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: love that that I think it's super smart, and I

810
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 1: think that the thing about north Turner is spot on.

811
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: So Jeff Schwartz, who played in the NFL for a

812
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: long time and is a UH analyst for the Action Network,

813
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: made a great point the other day. He played with

814
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 1: Cam in North Carolina. He still lives in Charlotte, and

815
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 1: he made a great point that Norv Turner has never

816
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 1: had a quarterback like Cam like. His career has been

817
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: built around drop back quarterbacks. And the thing about Cam

818
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 1: is that he really needs to get physical and to

819
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 1: get into a rhythm in the running game personally to

820
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 1: start to get ant and feel comfortable. And you could

821
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 1: see him sort of get emotionally charged when he has

822
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 1: at least like one good run in a game, and

823
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 1: that's not part of north Turner's design. And Cam Newton

824
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 1: has one at the high school, juco, college and professional level,

825
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 1: both personal accolades and team accomplishments, doing exactly what he's

826
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 1: done without changing a thing. So it's gonna be really

827
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 1: hard for him to adjust his game. North Turner is

828
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 1: gonna have to figure out a system that is different

829
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 1: than what he's done for his entire career. I think

830
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 1: that's gonna be challenging. I think that's the key to

831
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,879
Speaker 1: what you just said. I love that play. Scooch. Tell

832
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 1: me how the market is reacting to what Barnwell was saying. Well,

833
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:29,959
Speaker 1: we got some sharp money on the on the under,

834
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: but not real big. It's one of the least bet

835
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 1: totals that we have on the board. Ironically, there's not

836
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 1: a whole lot of public action either. I just don't

837
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 1: think that anyone really like they wouldn't be surprised if

838
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 1: Carolina won ten games, and they probably wouldn't be surprised

839
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 1: if they only won seven games. They're they're just uh

840
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 1: kind of they saw that the rise and fall of

841
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: this team make it to the to the super Bowl,

842
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: and then just underperformed that the next year. So uh,

843
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 1: not a whole lot of interest in this one. Well,

844
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 1: you know also Southern team, crappy colors, shitty logo, unmanorable,

845
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:15,240
Speaker 1: no history. Yeah yeah, probably Barnwell Well, uh he's given

846
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,240
Speaker 1: that criteria. I think this might be another low action

847
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:22,319
Speaker 1: that might be Tennessee uh going under their total, which

848
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: at the moment, according to the Trustee Action Network dot

849
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 1: com website, uh eight etan is the under. So um,

850
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,399
Speaker 1: I'm I'm very skeptical of a lot of things there.

851
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 1: I I you know, I could see a scenario where

852
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 1: you look at, Wow, they've got a young team, talented team. Uh.

853
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,800
Speaker 1: I didn't love the coaching staff. Last year. Marcus Mariota,

854
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: Barry challenger and quarterback had an off year. You see

855
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 1: him playing better, You see the team staying healthier in

856
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 1: some ways. Uh, maybe they're gonna be a a team

857
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 1: that could win ten games. But a couple of things

858
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 1: for me. Number one, they were a team that really

859
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,919
Speaker 1: beat up on bad teams last year, played the second

860
00:45:57,920 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 1: East schedule and football according to my numbers, and this

861
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 1: kind of not going to be tough. But I do

862
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 1: think the A South is going to be a lot better.

863
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 1: I think Houston, who talked about as a likely candidate

864
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 1: to improved dramatically. Jacksonville, the numbers last year said they

865
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: were a dominant team even better than their record indicated.

866
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 1: They should be back at that level to me. And

867
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 1: then in Annapolis is getting Ambi Luck back? And if

868
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 1: he's Andrew Luck, what's the big league forward of anywhere?

869
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 1: A team that according to the numbers was a lot

870
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 1: better than they looked uh in terms of their final records.

871
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 1: So except the vision being a lot tougher. And then

872
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 1: I am skeptical of the new coaching staff. Mike Rabel

873
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 1: someone who I think a lot of people like, uh

874
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: like to them from his pro career, a lot of

875
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 1: respect around the league. But that was true of Mike Singletary,

876
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 1: another phone linebacker, and he didn't get things done in

877
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 1: San Francisco. And Rabel's one year is a coordinator with Houston.

878
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 1: Last year they dropped off pretty significantly. There was some

879
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: injuries there for sure, but there were injuries the year

880
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 1: before JJ Watless missing for even more of the year

881
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:56,399
Speaker 1: I believe in twenty six team and they were able

882
00:46:56,400 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 1: to hold on just fine. So I'm not necessary really

883
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 1: induce if there's a great coaching staff there, it's gonna

884
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 1: have Marcus Mario to take a leap forward. So uh,

885
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 1: their additions this offseason. Meltin Butler, you know, was pretty

886
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: bad last year before the Super Bowl. Dean Lewis, the

887
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,839
Speaker 1: guy is super talented, but incredible injury history. Um, they

888
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 1: traded up repeatedly in the draft. The talent that I

889
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: don't know it's necessarily worth it. Jack Conklin, Uh, they're

890
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: excellent right tackle is coming up to twenty cl secord

891
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:24,439
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. You might be ready for the start

892
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: of the season Brishard Matthews who still possibly unable to play.

893
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: So I do think there's a lot of negatives there.

894
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: I thought that I can't see scenario where they improved,

895
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: but just to me, it's much more plausible given the numbers,

896
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 1: given their roster construction. But they do take a step

897
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 1: backwards and they're more of a six and ten, seven

898
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 1: and nine team here, nondescript Southern team with a logo

899
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 1: no one could do out of the hat. Just proved

900
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,320
Speaker 1: my theory again, Scooch, give me a market reacts on that.

901
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 1: So the first couple of vets out of the gate

902
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,080
Speaker 1: were on the over on this one for uh some

903
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 1: pretty sizable bets, and within the last two weeks we

904
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 1: saw some equally uh large action on the under. So

905
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: we're dead even in terms of actual money on the game,

906
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 1: and the public ticket counts pretty low on on this

907
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 1: one as well, as the Titans aren't typically you know,

908
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 1: one of those public teams like the Steelers and Cowboys.

909
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 1: But um, but the money is dead even. But it's

910
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 1: pretty sizeable money on both sides, so we really didn't

911
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:30,879
Speaker 1: move the total much. Alright, Scooch, give me your two

912
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:35,320
Speaker 1: PHAs now, Okay, So now it's a little different because

913
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: I'm actually able to change the numbers that I'm using,

914
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 1: So I'm actually I'm actually screwing myself. But typically I

915
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: end up screwing myself over because I've already moved them

916
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 1: in the direction where we're shading. So the first the

917
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 1: first one is the Rams, and you know, we we

918
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:57,280
Speaker 1: loved them last year to go over very low total,

919
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:00,400
Speaker 1: so we shaded them on on the very high side

920
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: at nine and a half over dollar fifty. We're up

921
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 1: to ten already on the game. But I still think

922
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 1: that they'll go over ten. Here's the Here's a team

923
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:12,800
Speaker 1: that they had eleven wins last year and in my opinion,

924
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 1: only got better with the acquisition they got to keep

925
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 1: to leave Marcus Peters Dominican sues. I mean, they've they've

926
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 1: they've got some pretty good moves in free agency. This

927
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 1: team is going to be even better than they were

928
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: last year. So and the public agrees with me. The

929
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 1: sharp guys got in a little bit early on at

930
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:33,399
Speaker 1: over nine and a half and they've slowed down a little.

931
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 1: When we went to ten. But it maybe maybe a

932
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 1: square play, but it looks pretty favorable total square play.

933
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 1: What is your next one? The forty Niners under and

934
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 1: and again I already and I already moved it under

935
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 1: and and the reason I kind of equate them to

936
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 1: what the Raiders were last year, when the Raiders, like

937
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 1: two years ago, they had that twelve win season where

938
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,719
Speaker 1: the hype was just tremendous going into last year kind

939
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 1: of right for regression. I think they're not going to

940
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 1: sneak up on anybody with the way that they finished

941
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 1: the season last year. There's still going to be a

942
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 1: good team, and they're in a division where teams like

943
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and Seahawks are also on the downslide. But uh,

944
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:20,800
Speaker 1: they're they're the expectations are too high for what the

945
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 1: total is, and I think a lot of the public

946
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 1: kind of drove it up to that number. But I

947
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: favor that one under. I couldn't disagree with me. You

948
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 1: like them over, I think them over. I think the

949
00:50:35,719 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 1: Rams are the Raiders from two years ago. Really okay,

950
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 1: I think the Rams are the Raiders from two years ago,

951
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 1: the Vikings from eight years ago, and the Lions from

952
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:52,359
Speaker 1: seven years ago. How many wins. Do you think they're

953
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 1: going to get them the Rams? Yeah? Nine nine? Okay,

954
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 1: clothes while throwing some bonus ones for you. How about

955
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 1: the Steelers under I love that, yes, okay. Well are

956
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 1: on the same page there then, and they're playing They're

957
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:15,120
Speaker 1: in a real They've got a tough schedule playing all

958
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 1: those teams that we just mentioned in the NFC South

959
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 1: this year at ten and a half games, Um, I

960
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 1: think by the end of the season you're going to

961
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 1: see them fade a little bit. What's your biggest liability

962
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 1: right now? Um? Well, the Vikings over was was a

963
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 1: pretty big one. And here's one that's I mean, it's

964
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 1: really gonna shock you. And I think I talked a

965
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 1: little bit about it, but the Denver Broncos was one

966
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:43,359
Speaker 1: of our one of our biggest decisions out of out

967
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 1: of everything on the board, and uh at seven seven

968
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 1: and a half games both, I mean a lot of

969
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 1: its public you mean, you talk about one of those

970
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 1: teams that has a pretty big following and their proximity

971
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 1: to Vegas, that that accounts for some of it. But

972
00:51:57,480 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 1: there's some some pretty big bets at over seven and

973
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 1: a games there, So that that one surprised me a

974
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:11,320
Speaker 1: little bit. M hmm, boy are people stupid? Wow? Listen,

975
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 1: I got a call like I see it. I'm saying

976
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 1: that's straight. I'm a straight shooter man, straight Talk Express.

977
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 1: All right, listen, everyone go read Bill Barnwell on ESPN

978
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 1: dot com. Uh, he's fantastic. Everyone continue to download the

979
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 1: Buffet with Chat and Scooch because Scooch is fantastic and

980
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 1: I'm a futurist, so you probably just want to listen

981
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 1: to everything I'm saying to get in on the game.

982
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell, thanks for joining the Buffet with Chad and Scooch.

983
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 1: Bring stuff, Scooch, thanks for coming, Thanks for coming on

984
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 1: your podcast today. Thanks Chat, you too. All Right, I'll

985
00:52:56,640 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 1: talk to you guys again soon. He a