WEBVTT - Taylor Swift Wedding Predictions Are the Hottest New Trade

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Would you consider yourself

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<v Speaker 1>a swifty? I think it's a scale, like oh, so

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<v Speaker 1>many group chats. This week, I found myself talking with

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<v Speaker 1>my coworkers about Taylor Swift.

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<v Speaker 2>I like music, but I'm not like keeping up with

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<v Speaker 2>every single thing she does with her life.

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<v Speaker 1>That's Bloomberg's Personal Finance reporter Francesca Maglione. I am a

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<v Speaker 1>big fan, and that's Annie Massa, a Bloomberg Wealth reporter.

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<v Speaker 3>I am probably not all the way down the rabbit

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<v Speaker 3>hole on every single development and every single Easter egg

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<v Speaker 3>and every single song. But was I singing August in

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<v Speaker 3>honor of my friend's birthday at a karaoke last week. Yes.

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<v Speaker 1>Taylor Swift and NFL player Travis Kelce announced their engagement

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<v Speaker 1>on Tuesday, and I wanted to talk to Francesca and

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<v Speaker 1>Annie because there's one corner of the universe that's been

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<v Speaker 1>turning their engagement into a money making event, the people

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<v Speaker 1>making predictions and financial bets on where their relationship will

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<v Speaker 1>go next.

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<v Speaker 2>We had like a bet on our team, and people

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<v Speaker 2>had to give their like what they thought was going

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<v Speaker 2>to happen with them in twenty twenty five, and I

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<v Speaker 2>had said that they were going to break up, so

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<v Speaker 2>I think I was expecting that at all.

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<v Speaker 1>Did you lose money on that bet?

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<v Speaker 2>No? No, no money was involved, thankfully.

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<v Speaker 1>The rise of legal online betting in the US over

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<v Speaker 1>the last few years has ushered in all kinds of

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<v Speaker 1>vets like bets on current events and pop culture made

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<v Speaker 1>on prediction markets like Polymarket and call She.

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<v Speaker 2>So far this year, both of these platforms have had

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<v Speaker 2>more than a billion in trading volume, so they've become

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<v Speaker 2>more significant as the years go by.

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<v Speaker 1>Within hours of Tailor and Travis's announcement, gamblers on call

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<v Speaker 1>She had placed about eighty thousand dollars worth of bets

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<v Speaker 1>on the couple's wedding timeline, and by Thursday that number

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<v Speaker 1>had doubled to around one hundred and sixty thousand dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes.

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<v Speaker 1>By Thursday afternoon, the odds of Taylor and Travis getting

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<v Speaker 1>married by the end of the year hovered at around

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<v Speaker 1>seven percent.

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<v Speaker 3>I was not placing any bets personally, but I was

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<v Speaker 3>kind of bearish. So here we are and very happy

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<v Speaker 3>for them, obviously.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, bullish now on.

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<v Speaker 3>Travis and Taylor one hundred percent.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Sarah Holder And this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News Today on the show, How prediction markets work,

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<v Speaker 1>why they're exploding in popularity, and what this all means

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<v Speaker 1>for the people and events they're betting on. Betting isn't new.

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<v Speaker 1>Humans have been doing it for millennia, but online prediction

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<v Speaker 1>markets like polymarket and call She have recently surged in

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<v Speaker 1>popularity in the US. If I've never used polymarket before

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<v Speaker 1>or call she. Is this like sports betting or is

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<v Speaker 1>it different? How does it actually work?

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<v Speaker 3>The easiest explanation would be, in the context of a

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<v Speaker 3>presidential election, who will win Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

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<v Speaker 1>That's Bloomberg Wealth reporter Annie Massa.

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<v Speaker 3>And you can bet on who will win. But now

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<v Speaker 3>you're able to get odds effectively on all sorts of

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<v Speaker 3>other different things. So will this event happen in the future?

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<v Speaker 3>Yes or no? Will Taylor Swift release an album by

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<v Speaker 3>the end of the year, Yes or no?

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<v Speaker 1>And gods of that went up significantly?

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, exactly, And you can watch in real time as

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<v Speaker 3>these odds change based on who's placing bets for yes, no,

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<v Speaker 3>or a range of other different outcomes for depending on

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<v Speaker 3>the type of market it is.

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<v Speaker 1>Polymarket was founded in twenty twenty and it's gotten major

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<v Speaker 1>funding support from Peter Teel and Ethereum founder Vitolic Buterine.

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<v Speaker 1>This year alone, it's nearly two hundred and thirty thousand

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<v Speaker 1>monthly users have placed nearly sixteen billion dollars of bets

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<v Speaker 1>on real world events. Here's Francesca Magleone, Bloomberg's Personal Finance reporter.

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<v Speaker 2>Started around the presidential election, and it's kind of shifted

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<v Speaker 2>just beyond politics and everything in pop culture when it

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<v Speaker 2>comes to Taylor Swift in general, I think people are

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<v Speaker 2>betting on things as she is she going to have

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<v Speaker 2>a baby this year? Like when are they going to

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<v Speaker 2>get engaged? Is the wedding going to happen this year?

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<v Speaker 2>Like anything you could think of people are betting on.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a market for that for.

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<v Speaker 1>Sure, and what happens when you win and what happens

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<v Speaker 1>when you lose, like how much money is on the

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<v Speaker 1>line here.

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<v Speaker 3>These markets have grown in size over time, but a

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<v Speaker 3>basic example would be you bet a few cents on

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<v Speaker 3>a yes or no and the market settles to a dollar,

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<v Speaker 3>and so effectively you've put down a few cents to

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<v Speaker 3>place the bet based on what the odds are and

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<v Speaker 3>if you were correct, then that market settles to a dollar.

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<v Speaker 1>This can all happen quickly. You type in your card

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<v Speaker 1>info or hook up your crypto wallet and put some

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<v Speaker 1>money on the odds of the Yankees winning tonight, or

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<v Speaker 1>on Travis and Taylor tying the knot by the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the year, depending on what you're wagering on. The

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<v Speaker 1>market closes when in a ends, like after the last

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<v Speaker 1>inning in a baseball game, or it could end at

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<v Speaker 1>a preset cutoff time, and once the market closes, you

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<v Speaker 1>either get your payout or you lose.

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<v Speaker 2>There's been some studies that have said that Americans are

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<v Speaker 2>taking money out of their brokerage accounts to fund some

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<v Speaker 2>of these wages, and in extreme cases there's losses from

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<v Speaker 2>gambling that can contribute to autolone delinquencies and bankruptcies.

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<v Speaker 1>Is this part of a broader trend of online betting

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<v Speaker 1>markets gaining popularity like DraftKings or other websites.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, sports betting we've seen grow in popularity, and it's

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<v Speaker 2>also interesting just culturally. Now people will go online to

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<v Speaker 2>check what are the odds of this happening, So it's

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<v Speaker 2>becoming kind of a cultural phenomenon or a place that

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<v Speaker 2>people go to gut check anything that they're questioning or

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<v Speaker 2>thinking about.

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<v Speaker 1>What is a company like this worth.

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<v Speaker 3>So actually, both Calshie and Polymarket have been fundraising, and

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<v Speaker 3>Calsh's valued at two billion dollars now, Polymarket's valued at

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<v Speaker 3>about a billion dollars now. The other thing is the

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<v Speaker 3>intersection of the types of investors in these companies. You

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<v Speaker 3>have an intersection of Silicon Valley and some more traditional

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<v Speaker 3>Wall Street kind of firms. So Susquehanna, which is not

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<v Speaker 3>maybe well known on Main Street, but very well known

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<v Speaker 3>big Wall Street trading firm, is a big backer of Calshi.

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<v Speaker 3>So again like a mix of both the more Silicon

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<v Speaker 3>Valley side of things and the Wall Street side of things.

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<v Speaker 3>And Founder's Fund is a big backer of poly.

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<v Speaker 1>Market and some other notable backers like Donald Trump Junior.

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<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump Junior has been taking on advisory roles at

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<v Speaker 3>a whole bunch of different companies. That's included cryptocurrency realm,

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<v Speaker 3>it's included firearms, all kinds of different companies. But he

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<v Speaker 3>now has a pretty strong foothold in both major prediction

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<v Speaker 3>markets in the US. In January, became an advisor to

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<v Speaker 3>Calshy and just became an advisor to Polymarket, and he

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<v Speaker 3>is a partner at this firm called seventeen eighty nine Capital,

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<v Speaker 3>which invested in Polymarket.

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<v Speaker 1>Why is he so interested in this company?

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<v Speaker 3>He said when he took the role at Calshi that

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<v Speaker 3>prediction markets allowed him and his family, when they were

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<v Speaker 3>watching the returns for the twenty twenty four election at

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<v Speaker 3>mar A Lago, to kind of have a better finger

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<v Speaker 3>on the pulse of what was actually going to happen

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<v Speaker 3>versus polls. Another thing that advocates of prediction markets say

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<v Speaker 3>is that they're usually more accurate than polls, which you

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<v Speaker 3>can debate, but that's what advocates say. And so he

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<v Speaker 3>took the approach that, oh, you know, Calshi helped my

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<v Speaker 3>family understand what was really going on. It's also very

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<v Speaker 3>possible that he sees a lucrative business opportunity in advising

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<v Speaker 3>both of these companies. Who's to say. And so, what's

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<v Speaker 3>really happened is in the past year, and especially under

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration, you've seen a more lax regulatory approach

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<v Speaker 3>to policing some of these prediction markets, which have been

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<v Speaker 3>very controversial over.

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<v Speaker 1>Time, controversial, not only because of that murky regulatory landscape,

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<v Speaker 1>but because of the real world implications of betting on

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<v Speaker 1>real world events.

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<v Speaker 3>You can look at it two ways. If you are

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<v Speaker 3>an advocate for prediction markets, you might say, well, this

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<v Speaker 3>is providing some kind of valuable information or wisdom of

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<v Speaker 3>the crowds on anything that will happen next, even if

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<v Speaker 3>a situation is tragic. If you're a detractor, you might say, well,

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<v Speaker 3>you can come up with all kinds of twisted markets

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<v Speaker 3>or sick markets on things, And is that really a

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<v Speaker 3>good idea to start putting that out for people to

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<v Speaker 3>win money on.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's a really thorny ethical question. Yeah, prediction markets

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<v Speaker 1>rocky road to regulation and how they're influencing the way

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<v Speaker 1>we think about and experience current events. That's after the break.

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<v Speaker 1>A few years after prediction markets hit the scene, the

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<v Speaker 1>industry faced a major roadblock. People were flocking to sites

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<v Speaker 1>like polymarket and call she, but the platforms were operating

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<v Speaker 1>in a regulatory gray area, and Bloomberg reporter Annie Massa

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<v Speaker 1>says they drew the attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,

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<v Speaker 1>or the CFTC. It's a federal agency that regulates the

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<v Speaker 1>derivatives market, which, unlike traditional gambling, is not regulated by

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<v Speaker 1>the States.

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<v Speaker 3>The CFTC has taken a pretty stern approach in the

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<v Speaker 3>past toward these contracts and basically said, if you're betting

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<v Speaker 3>yes or no on the outcomes, if you have money

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<v Speaker 3>on the line, that type of product is something that

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<v Speaker 3>we regulate and we oversee. You need to register with us,

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<v Speaker 3>and we are the watchdogs of this market. And both

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<v Speaker 3>Calshi and Polymarke have had their own skirmishes in the

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<v Speaker 3>regulatory arena.

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<v Speaker 1>The CFTC first targeted call She back in twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 1>The regulator claimed that the political betting the platform facilitated

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<v Speaker 1>was illegal and ordered them to stop operating, but Call

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<v Speaker 1>she sued and after a federal court battle, the CFTC

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<v Speaker 1>dropped its appeal in May of this year.

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<v Speaker 3>But the tension for Polymarket had to do with two

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<v Speaker 3>separate inquiries. There was DOJ probe which resulted in this

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<v Speaker 3>big FBI raid on the CEO's penthouse in Soho last year,

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<v Speaker 3>and there was a separate inquiry from the CFTC. The

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<v Speaker 3>CFTC fined them over a million dollars, saying you're allowing

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<v Speaker 3>customers to bet on outcomes and trade contracts that are

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<v Speaker 3>basically something that we should be regulating. You need to

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<v Speaker 3>register with US.

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<v Speaker 1>In twenty twenty two, the US banned Polymarket outright. That

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<v Speaker 1>meant US based users weren't allowed to place bets on

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<v Speaker 1>the site.

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<v Speaker 3>Polymarket was almost an exile in some ways just for

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<v Speaker 3>the US.

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<v Speaker 1>That didn't stop the site from featuring bets about the US.

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<v Speaker 1>In twenty twenty four, Polymarket hosted millions of dollars in

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<v Speaker 1>bets about whether or not Donald Trump would win the

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<v Speaker 1>presidential election. Spoiler alert, he won, just as Polymarket users

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<v Speaker 1>had predicted. I remember that with the presidential election that

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<v Speaker 1>was kind of like an informal poll that actually ended

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<v Speaker 1>up being more accurate.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I have a friend that anytime something going on,

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<v Speaker 2>she just goes on Calshien is like, yeah, no, we

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<v Speaker 2>don't have to worry about this or low or whatever

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<v Speaker 2>the case might be.

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<v Speaker 1>Then in July of this year, the US government and

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<v Speaker 1>Polymarket found a way to move forward. The US shut

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<v Speaker 1>down the two federal probes opened under the Biden administration,

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<v Speaker 1>and Polymarket bought a derivatives exchange and clearing house called QCX,

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<v Speaker 1>which gave them stronger legal standing to operate in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>You both mentioned how influential Polymarket and Calls's predictions have

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<v Speaker 1>grown as a cultural force a political course. Where do

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<v Speaker 1>you see that influence going next.

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<v Speaker 2>I think in the future many people will turn to

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<v Speaker 2>them to kind of gut check events or presidential races.

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<v Speaker 2>They become really helpful to kind of see how people

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<v Speaker 2>online are feeling, Like, will.

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<v Speaker 3>Lisa Cook actually be removed would be an example. There

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<v Speaker 3>are some controversial ones. Earlier in the year, when there

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<v Speaker 3>were wildfires in Los Angeles, Polymarket had a market on

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<v Speaker 3>the trajectory of the wildfires, which people found pretty un towered.

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<v Speaker 3>So it can go all over the place. It's not

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<v Speaker 3>just in the realm of politics or even pop culture.

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<v Speaker 3>You can put odds on a lot of different things.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, yeah, that's disturbing people betting on something that could

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<v Speaker 1>destroy people's livelihoods or their lives. But I guess that

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<v Speaker 1>once you open that door, anything can go on the platform.

0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:54.920
<v Speaker 1>But Francesca says she's also looking at how the demographics

0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.400
<v Speaker 1>of people using these platforms could shift over time and

0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:01.040
<v Speaker 1>how that could influence the outcome of certain bets.

0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.120
<v Speaker 2>Right now, mostly men are users, Maybe we see more

0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:07.520
<v Speaker 2>women go on there and it become more popular, because

0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:10.199
<v Speaker 2>I do think that it's pretty like the online bro

0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:14.319
<v Speaker 2>crypto bro environment right now, but maybe moving forward it

0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.600
<v Speaker 2>will become more mainstream and maybe more accurate in that

0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:17.240
<v Speaker 2>way as well.

0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:20.720
<v Speaker 1>What are the implications of the platform having a certain

0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.240
<v Speaker 1>kind of better or a certain kind of user. How

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<v Speaker 1>might that impact the kinds of predictions it will spit out,

0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.800
<v Speaker 1>and how might that have an impact on real life.

0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:34.439
<v Speaker 3>There were these markets on throwing things onto the court

0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:40.160
<v Speaker 3>at WNBA games, and the critique there is you're almost

0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:45.640
<v Speaker 3>encouraging certain behaviors by posting these certain markets.

0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:47.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, there's some people that are worried that it might

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:51.040
<v Speaker 2>influence real life events because some people could say it's biased,

0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.920
<v Speaker 2>and so that's dangerous in the sense that one opinion

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:57.040
<v Speaker 2>is getting kind of an advantage over another as more

0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.640
<v Speaker 2>people kind of turn to Calci or polymarket, like I said,

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:01.400
<v Speaker 2>to gut check things, and if you're a gut checking

0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.000
<v Speaker 2>against kind of a biased opinion, then that might influence

0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:06.520
<v Speaker 2>real life events or the way that people think about

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:08.480
<v Speaker 2>races or things like that.

0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:12.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, well, and that's famously one of the impacts

0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:14.240
<v Speaker 1>of political polls.

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:15.959
<v Speaker 3>Right, if you see your.

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.360
<v Speaker 1>Candidate leading in the polls, maybe you're less likely to

0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 1>vote or more likely to switch candidates. Or there are

0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:24.080
<v Speaker 1>impacts of seeing where the wisdom of the crowd is

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:24.800
<v Speaker 1>pointing and.

0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:26.920
<v Speaker 2>People want to win, and so if you think that

0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 2>a outcome is going to go a certain way because

0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 2>you saw it on Calshi, then maybe that will make

0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 2>you go that way as well.

0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:33.600
<v Speaker 3>Well.

0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:37.240
<v Speaker 1>We've got to hope that Taylor was not influenced to

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 1>get engaged by poly market. I'm sure there's more love.

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.000
<v Speaker 3>There, hope.

0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.680
<v Speaker 1>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News Sarah Holder.

0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:03.560
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0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:07.320
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0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:11.080
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0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.600
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0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:18.880
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.