Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Mark Moss Show,
Speaker 1: where we talk about the decentralized revolution, of course, each
Speaker 1: and every week, looking at through the lens of politics, finance,
Speaker 1: and technology. Of course, that technology is bitcoin, the decentralized
Speaker 1: technology that is rapidly changing the world. And I got
Speaker 1: a special show for you today. I'm excited about I've
Speaker 1: been chomping at the bit to get going on this.
Speaker 1: I got three special guests in the studio with me today.
Speaker 1: I got Dr Jeff Ross. We joke about him being
Speaker 1: the Perma Bear. We're gonna talk about that. We got Nico,
Speaker 1: the host of Simply Bitcoin joining us, and uh Louis
Speaker 1: lou Um and we are going to talk about the
Speaker 1: macro environment, what's going on with the markets in general,
Speaker 1: and of course how that relates back to bitcoin um.
Speaker 1: For those of you tuning in, this is a it's
Speaker 1: a warm up for us, it's a scrimmage. We are
Speaker 1: all going to be on a panel next week at
Speaker 1: Pacific Bitcoin Um, finally bringing bitcoin back to my home
Speaker 1: state of California where it belongs. And so check out
Speaker 1: Pacific Bitcoin get your ticket, you still got time. The
Speaker 1: four of us will be on a panel together, and
Speaker 1: so we're warming up anyway. Guys, welcome, thanks for joining
Speaker 1: me today. Thanks Mark, happy to be here. Man, Yeah,
Speaker 1: happy to have you on Nico. We should we'll do
Speaker 1: another one with you at one point. But so the
Speaker 1: topic that we're going to talk about today, I think
Speaker 1: is just the macro economic environment that we're in right now, um,
Speaker 1: and how Bitcoin relates into that. I think, Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: as we just saw the FED chair Jerome Powell the
Speaker 1: f O m C meeting met and a little bit
Speaker 1: of a mixed message at first, and then um, he
Speaker 1: tried to kind of go back and firm up his
Speaker 1: position in the comments. I do want to start off
Speaker 1: by just saying the sheer insanity of a world that
Speaker 1: we're in where we all stand around and look for
Speaker 1: the hedgehog to come out and tell us if winter
Speaker 1: is still coming. I mean, I mean, we look for
Speaker 1: a guy to tell us what the markets are gonna
Speaker 1: be doing, the sheering entity of that. Uh and and
Speaker 1: and actually how important it is today. I mean even
Speaker 1: a decade ago, nobody probably even knew her who the
Speaker 1: chair of the Fed FED was, and today we're all
Speaker 1: sitting around waiting. But anyway, a little bit of a
Speaker 1: mixed message. Jeff, you're the permit bear. What did you
Speaker 1: get out of that mixed message? And as again I said,
Speaker 1: like reiterated really kind of at the end what he
Speaker 1: was thinking. Yeah, it was really interesting to watch Mark.
Speaker 1: You know. At first, they they came out right off
Speaker 1: the bat raised the federal funds rate seventy five BIPs,
Speaker 1: which was no surprise to anybody. And then there is
Speaker 1: a little bit of lingo in the FMC statement that
Speaker 1: most people interpreted very quickly as hey, this is bullish,
Speaker 1: and so the markets responded bullish. I was actually lurking
Speaker 1: around on different uh Twitter spaces and and news programs,
Speaker 1: and basically uniformly people were talking bullishly like Okay, this
Speaker 1: is good. There's basically sign of they might pause at
Speaker 1: some point, but man, then he came out at two
Speaker 1: thirty Eastern time, and he came out swinging. At first,
Speaker 1: he was he waffled a little bit, but then as
Speaker 1: he got going and he got warmed up, he got
Speaker 1: the eye of the tiger and he just started pummeling
Speaker 1: risk assets. He pummeled the hopium out of people who
Speaker 1: I thought at least and and and this is from
Speaker 1: my perspective. Just so people know I'm very biased. I am,
Speaker 1: as to to Mark's point, I'm positioned very barish Ley,
Speaker 1: I'm shorting lots of things in the market right now.
Speaker 1: So maybe it's just because I was looking for bare sentiment,
Speaker 1: but I thought he was extremely bearish. I mean one
Speaker 1: of his statements that I wrote down is it is
Speaker 1: very premature to be thinking about or talking about pausing,
Speaker 1: and for people who are using that as their hopium
Speaker 1: that the markets were gonna turn and and have a
Speaker 1: little bull run here, I think he just deflated all
Speaker 1: of that hopium with that statement. Yeah. The one that
Speaker 1: I saw was he said, prudent risk management suggests the
Speaker 1: risks of doing too little or much higher than doing
Speaker 1: too much. If we were too overtighten, we could use
Speaker 1: our tools later on to support the economy. So he's like, look,
Speaker 1: if we blow it up, we blow it up, who
Speaker 1: freaking cares? We got tools that we can fix it later.
Speaker 1: So like, I'd rather risk blowing it up and try
Speaker 1: to fix it later than not blowing it up. So
Speaker 1: that to me was like, dang, what's that. What's your
Speaker 1: thoughts on that? Niko? Yeah, man, look, the reality is
Speaker 1: you know the game is up. People are starting to
Speaker 1: wake up to the scam. The reality is that ever
Speaker 1: since the financial crisis, central banks have been working together
Speaker 1: with governments to prop up a zombie economy. The only
Speaker 1: ones who got wealthy were the one's closest to the
Speaker 1: money printer, those who did real work, actual work. I've
Speaker 1: gotten poor and and what you're gonna see over the
Speaker 1: next couple of years is that central bankers and politicians
Speaker 1: will use every excuse humanly possible they can come up with,
Speaker 1: but blame themselves because they're the ones solely responsible for
Speaker 1: what is to come. If you're under the age of
Speaker 1: thirty five at this point and you don't have bitcoin,
Speaker 1: I got very fortunate to get into bitcoin when I did.
Speaker 1: You're nothing more than a Russian surf. You don't own anything, right,
Speaker 1: Even their own propaganda says it. They want you to
Speaker 1: quote them, not me, to own nothing and be happy. Right.
Speaker 1: We are at that point in the movie and it's
Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous. So anything that comes out of power to me,
Speaker 1: it's just noise. What I'm focused on mark nowadays is
Speaker 1: how bitcoin is going to bring up the future that
Speaker 1: I want to live in, In the future that I
Speaker 1: want my kids to live in It's an absolute, it's
Speaker 1: a joke. I came up with the meme is the
Speaker 1: last thing I'm gonna say. I came up with a
Speaker 1: meme yesterday of that famous picture of Mao Zedong in
Speaker 1: front of you know, the Forbidden City in China, and
Speaker 1: I face swapped it with Pal's face, and I said,
Speaker 1: the chairman is is about to make an announcement on
Speaker 1: the direction of the U S economy. How is this
Speaker 1: any different than communism? It's like we're at this part
Speaker 1: of the movie. And I was fortunate enough to be
Speaker 1: on with Jeff Booth yesterday and he said it best.
Speaker 1: He's like, look, every central bank that ever exists in
Speaker 1: human history has always ended up with the socialist takeover.
Speaker 1: And I think this is not to get too political.
Speaker 1: I think this is exactly where we are. Well, it
Speaker 1: is political. You can't separate. You can't separate the politics
Speaker 1: and the economics anymore. And to the point that you
Speaker 1: just made, Nico, um, how is this any different than communism?
Speaker 1: It's not, you guys know, shameless plug here. I recently
Speaker 1: released a book called The Uncommunist Manifesto, and um. When
Speaker 1: Marx wrote the original book, The Communist Manifesto, He laid
Speaker 1: out ten points of communism. In order to achieve communism,
Speaker 1: we must have these ten things. Point number three, a
Speaker 1: heavy progressive tax system. Point number five a central bank.
Speaker 1: A central bank is communism, per Coral Marx. Not in
Speaker 1: my words, that's his words. So how's it different communism?
Speaker 1: It's not. That's exactly what it is. You control the
Speaker 1: price of money, You control the price of everything anyway, Lewis,
Speaker 1: So let's le strow it over to you. So, um,
Speaker 1: he's extremely hawkish. Uh, it's insane that some guy has
Speaker 1: the power to control the money supply. But but that's
Speaker 1: where we're app Um. But bitcoin is kind of holding
Speaker 1: on like a boss. What's your thoughts? Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: the market start to realize that, you know, some of
Speaker 1: the Rick's action has been down sep from the top,
Speaker 1: and I think people are looking at those as you know,
Speaker 1: wanting to scoop it up as a cheap at the
Speaker 1: bitcoint kind of like a different type of risk action.
Speaker 1: Entering into this new micro environment with fathers raising interest
Speaker 1: rate and people are rushing to you know, cash and
Speaker 1: there's a lot of cash sitting outside in the in
Speaker 1: the bank right now, you know doing um the city
Speaker 1: City bank deposit to earn you know, years on it,
Speaker 1: or you know they lend it out for fixing colm
Speaker 1: type of investment if it that you know could switch anytime,
Speaker 1: you know, as long as UM there there's people speculating
Speaker 1: on fout reserve pivot. But I don't see that happen
Speaker 1: anytime soon. But some of those Rick's ACTA that's highly
Speaker 1: you know, get hammered out. It's going to have a
Speaker 1: chance or it's not going to go down that much
Speaker 1: compared to some off those uh Tex stocks that hasn't
Speaker 1: even got down the dog. Yeah, but we saw that,
Speaker 1: we saw that the stock markets went down. I mean
Speaker 1: they I think kind of the point Jeff was making earlier,
Speaker 1: like they kind of rallied a little bit into the
Speaker 1: pre meeting and then at post meeting it was like, no,
Speaker 1: they got crushed. But yet Bitcoin seems to be holding on. UM.
Speaker 1: It seems like, you know, maybe looking at some of
Speaker 1: the on chain metrics that maybe we're kind of have
Speaker 1: found some of the support level, and there seems some
Speaker 1: seems to have been a lot of defending along that level. UM.
Speaker 1: I want to I want to keep digging into uh
Speaker 1: kind of what this means for the macro picture. UM.
Speaker 1: There was a report that came out this week. I
Speaker 1: saw um bitcoin wants to break its bond with stocks
Speaker 1: and showing how the correlation has dropped to one of
Speaker 1: its lowest levels. I'd like to get Jeff's opinion on that.
Speaker 1: And then I want to talk about something I said.
Speaker 1: I made a video talking about how, um, how maybe
Speaker 1: there isn't another big market crash in front of us,
Speaker 1: even though the picture is bad. We're gonna cover all
Speaker 1: that and more. You're listening to the Mark Mos Show.
Speaker 1: If you're just tuning in. We talked about the decentralized revolution,
Speaker 1: the way the world is changing, of course looking at
Speaker 1: through the lens of politics, finance, and technology. I'm in
Speaker 1: the studio with three guests, Jeff Ross, Nico and Louis
Speaker 1: lou talking about the macro economic picture and of course
Speaker 1: what happens with bitcoin in that environment. We'll be back
Speaker 1: with all that and more in a minute. You don't
Speaker 1: want to miss it, don't go away, We're gonna be
Speaker 1: right back. All right, Welcome back. You are listening to
Speaker 1: the Mark Mo Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution.
Speaker 1: And right now I am joined in the studio with
Speaker 1: three guests, Dr Jeff Ross, Nico from Simply Bitcoin, and
Speaker 1: Louis lou and we're talking about this macro economic environment.
Speaker 1: And uh, Jeff, you know, the while we can look
Speaker 1: at bitcoin, bitcoins holding on extremely well, it's been stuck
Speaker 1: in this very tight range for a long period of time.
Speaker 1: As I kind of mentioned right before the break, it's
Speaker 1: slid to like its lowest level of correlation, it's down
Speaker 1: to zero point to six UM. And inside of all
Speaker 1: that bad news that happened, it seemed like Bitcoin has
Speaker 1: been holding on now as good as UM, as good
Speaker 1: as the metrics look, you know, whether you want to
Speaker 1: look at it from a technical analysis standpoint and on
Speaker 1: chain metric standpoint. I also looked like to look at
Speaker 1: the global pictures, so we're seeing a lot of adoption
Speaker 1: happened in third world countries, etcetera. UM, in light of
Speaker 1: all of those positive things, it seems like the macro picture,
Speaker 1: the macro bear is still in the driver's seat. How
Speaker 1: do you frame that up? And what do you think
Speaker 1: about just that that picture there? Yeah, great question Mark.
Speaker 1: I agree with you, and I agree with with your
Speaker 1: take on this. You know, as as long as global
Speaker 1: liquidity is generally contracting, Bitcoin historically hasn't done very well.
Speaker 1: Like these are the years where Bitcoin tends do not
Speaker 1: do well, and it tends as as as those of
Speaker 1: us who have been in the space, no, it explodes
Speaker 1: higher during the times of global liquidity expansion. So unfortunately,
Speaker 1: we're in this period of continued contraction we're at We're
Speaker 1: heading still down in the business cycle slope, and I
Speaker 1: think that we're gonna see continued kind of just rough
Speaker 1: macroeconomic conditions for about the next nine months or so.
Speaker 1: I think we're still gonna be talking about this all
Speaker 1: throughout the first half of three especially as we dip
Speaker 1: into a recession. Bitcoin has become somewhat uncorrelated in the
Speaker 1: near term. However, I think that when the floor drops out,
Speaker 1: if if they do, if the floor does drop out,
Speaker 1: under risk assets like NASDAC stocks like the SMP, things
Speaker 1: like that just just by it'll it'll be guilty by association,
Speaker 1: and I think it pulls Bitcoin down with it. As
Speaker 1: people get called for get their margin calls, I think
Speaker 1: they're going to take some of that liquidity, unfortunately out
Speaker 1: of Bitcoin and that's going to pull the price lower.
Speaker 1: That's my take. So if if, hypothetically if and maybe
Speaker 1: we can talk about percentages or base cases, but there's
Speaker 1: a good probability that we see another big crash coming,
Speaker 1: if we see a recession to your point, So if
Speaker 1: the markets were to crash, for example, then it could
Speaker 1: easily pull Bitcoin down another to percent potentially. Yeah, that'd
Speaker 1: be That's about my take. Ye. Now, um, Nico you
Speaker 1: had mentioned that you think, you know, for younger people,
Speaker 1: this is the great opportunity and how this is you know,
Speaker 1: kind of Jerome Powe and the Fed is kind of
Speaker 1: maybe showing their final hand so to speak. Right, Um,
Speaker 1: one thing I was looking at this morning is, um,
Speaker 1: you know, the banks want to want to continue their
Speaker 1: scam with the central bank digital currencies, and um, they're
Speaker 1: trying to rush them out. China is trying to rush
Speaker 1: them out. Um. In Nigeria they're trying to rush them out. Um.
Speaker 1: They have a really high penetration on cell phones. But
Speaker 1: in China, reports are that the adoption of the central
Speaker 1: bank digital currency has slowed down so much nobody wants
Speaker 1: to use it, and in Nigeria, nobody wants to use it. Either.
Speaker 1: And um, it's like the people are saying, we already
Speaker 1: have cryptocurrency, what's the point of essential bank digital currency?
Speaker 1: We don't see how that and this is a according
Speaker 1: to quotes from people there in Nigeria, we don't see
Speaker 1: how that is going to protect us from all the
Speaker 1: problems that we have with high digit inflation, manipulation, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So do you think that this global adoption, uh, we
Speaker 1: move when we have need. The pain is very high
Speaker 1: in those countries, they're moving at a rapid rate. Do
Speaker 1: you think this rise could be enough to offset some
Speaker 1: of this macro picture that we have. I think definitely
Speaker 1: on an individual level for sure. Um. And it's really
Speaker 1: interesting because, uh, you know, back to a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago, is maybe it's about a month ago, the
Speaker 1: Biden administration released the Digital Asset Framework, which everybody was
Speaker 1: looking forward to. And in that framework, it basically was
Speaker 1: an executive action that asked all the other branches of
Speaker 1: government to you know, look into, uh, look into the
Speaker 1: future of money. Treasury released a report literally called the
Speaker 1: Future of Money. And then that entire report, I kid
Speaker 1: you not, bitcoin is not mentioned one time. What was
Speaker 1: mentioned was the future of money in the air eyes
Speaker 1: is central bank digital currencies. They mentioned stable coins and
Speaker 1: they also may mentioned payment platforms. Now, the reason that
Speaker 1: central bank digital currencies will never be adopted in from
Speaker 1: my perspective without coercion is because they will never be
Speaker 1: able to match bitcoins incentives. And that's what you're seeing
Speaker 1: on a worldwide level. And what do I mean by
Speaker 1: incentives Two things, right, Governments will always want to censor
Speaker 1: and control, and governments will also always want to debase
Speaker 1: because via that debasement is how they pay for the bureaucracy.
Speaker 1: That's how they pay for themselves, and they'll never want
Speaker 1: to give that up. But you're seeing more of this
Speaker 1: in developing countries because I believe it's do something. It's
Speaker 1: due to something called and Alex Gladstein wrote an amazing book.
Speaker 1: It's the names and the name of the book says
Speaker 1: it all. It's called financial privilege. Right, And if you
Speaker 1: lived in the developed country, you have the privilege of
Speaker 1: using a currency that has an inflation rate ever so
Speaker 1: little that you don't really realize it's stealing from you,
Speaker 1: especially if you have a good job. But what's happening
Speaker 1: in Nigeria, what's happening in Venezuela. What's happening in Argentina.
Speaker 1: You're talking about double digit inflation. So when the government
Speaker 1: over there goes out and says, hey, guys, look at
Speaker 1: my central bank digital currency, they're looking at their government
Speaker 1: and saying, what does that fix? What does that do?
Speaker 1: And it's funny because the United Nations released the report
Speaker 1: and I'm paraphrasing here. The name of the report is
Speaker 1: called um UM. It's called We Must Stop Cryptocurrency Adopting
Speaker 1: adoption in Developing countries, and it advocates for central bank
Speaker 1: digital currencies. It says how this is going to lead
Speaker 1: to horrible things if you know, if if, if national
Speaker 1: currencies are circumvented. But once again, Mark, just like the
Speaker 1: Treasury report called the Future of Money, it never mentions
Speaker 1: the reason as to why people are looking for alternatives.
Speaker 1: And the reason why, I believe is they're actually trying
Speaker 1: to save their wealth, their time, their energy from currency debasement.
Speaker 1: And we both know, Mark, the only true cryptocurrency that
Speaker 1: is going to be able to provide that is Bitcoin. Yeah,
Speaker 1: for sure, I think to your point, yes, horrible things
Speaker 1: will happen if cryptocurrencies are adopted. Horrible things to their
Speaker 1: monopoly on the financial system. That's a horrible thing. But
Speaker 1: here's here's what they want to do with central bank
Speaker 1: digital currencies. Let's hear it directly from the head of
Speaker 1: the B I s Mr Augustine Carson, and see what
Speaker 1: he has to say. In particular for the use of
Speaker 1: general to the general use, we tend to establish the
Speaker 1: equivalence with cash, and there is a huge difference there.
Speaker 1: For example, in cash, we don't know, for example, who's
Speaker 1: using a one dollar bill today. We don't know who
Speaker 1: is using one. This will be until day So that's
Speaker 1: their problem. They don't know who's using it. They don't
Speaker 1: have control. The next clip, I'm not going to play
Speaker 1: it for time, but he says, and central bank digital
Speaker 1: currencies will give us all the power and control to
Speaker 1: do that, unlimited power and control. So I think we
Speaker 1: have this battle. I've been saying as investors, we and
Speaker 1: Jeff you coulda I'm sure say the thing. But as investors,
Speaker 1: what is looking for what I call the mismatching perception
Speaker 1: and reality. That's our edge. If everybody knows it, there's
Speaker 1: no edge there. And so the perception is it's like
Speaker 1: this Wall Street trading toy and it's being traded like
Speaker 1: a Wall Street, like a tech stock. The reality is
Speaker 1: it's not. The reality is it's a lifeboat for lots
Speaker 1: of people, potentially half the people in the world today,
Speaker 1: and they're realizing it. Um. If you're just tuning in,
Speaker 1: you listen to the markma Show. We're talking about, of course,
Speaker 1: each and every week, the decentralized Revolution, talking about bitcoin
Speaker 1: and the decentralized technology. And in the studio with Dr
Speaker 1: Jeff Ross, with Niko from Simply Bitcoin and Louis Lou
Speaker 1: talking about the macro environment and bitcoin. I want to
Speaker 1: come back in a minute. We're gonna talk about more
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen, So don't miss it. We'll be right back.
Speaker 1: All right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark
Speaker 1: Mox Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution, of course
Speaker 1: being led by bitcoin, the decentralized technology. I'm in the
Speaker 1: studio with Jeff Ross, Nico from Simply Bitcoin, and Louis Lou.
Speaker 1: We're having a warm up for our panel we're having
Speaker 1: next week at the Pacific Bitcoin Conference in Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: UH bringing bitcoin back to my home state here Southern California.
Speaker 1: Excited to check it out. If you don't want to
Speaker 1: have a ticket, you should. Um. So let's talk about
Speaker 1: this um from another level, because I think the one
Speaker 1: thing that I always want to try to bring attention
Speaker 1: back to is time frames. So doctor Dr Bear, Dr
Speaker 1: Jeff Ross, Yeah, we joke with the Bears, right, but
Speaker 1: it's uh, but it's always like time frames. And so
Speaker 1: Nico talked about being younger and how if you're if
Speaker 1: you're in your thirties, is this amazing opportunity And I'm
Speaker 1: guessing from that and we'll go back to him, but um,
Speaker 1: he's talking, well, he's younger, so has this long time frame.
Speaker 1: Dr Jeff Ross is extremely bearished. Maybe in the short
Speaker 1: time frame, so maybe in the next six months, nine months,
Speaker 1: twelve months. I would imagine over the next five, ten years.
Speaker 1: He's also bullish or positive about it. So we kind
Speaker 1: of have these time frames. They're right at some point
Speaker 1: the emerging markets will flip the Western markets maybe, right,
Speaker 1: but over what time frames? So let's talk about that
Speaker 1: a little bit. Um. Actually, before we talk about that,
Speaker 1: I made a comment before we started recording. I want
Speaker 1: to dig into and I made a comment that when
Speaker 1: I make my videos on YouTube, everybody wants the bad
Speaker 1: news and nobody wants the good news. And I had
Speaker 1: made a video talking about maybe there is no market
Speaker 1: crash show Dr Jeff, you had mentioned that maybe if, if,
Speaker 1: if there's this fifty percent crash or whatever, this percent
Speaker 1: crash is going to be in front of us. And
Speaker 1: of course there's plenty of data to tell us that
Speaker 1: this is the case. We can look at fractals that
Speaker 1: show the markets just like the grab Sure two thousand
Speaker 1: eight crash and it's supposed to, you know, have this
Speaker 1: perfect retracement and it's going to crash again. We can
Speaker 1: look at the horrible data, no shortage of of horrible data. Um.
Speaker 1: But I made this video and I said, are you
Speaker 1: one hundred percent certain that the market's going to crash?
Speaker 1: Nobody can be hunters in certain so maybe you're nine certain.
Speaker 1: So what about that ten percent? Should we look at that?
Speaker 1: And so what we should try to do instead of
Speaker 1: always trying to confirm our own biases, we should also
Speaker 1: we should really be looking for data that tries to
Speaker 1: go against our bias, to see where we have holes
Speaker 1: and things like that. And so I kind of made
Speaker 1: this this video and said, maybe maybe there's a thirty
Speaker 1: or forty percent chance it doesn't, and so let's take
Speaker 1: a look at that. And I'd like to get your
Speaker 1: guys take on this. So basically my case, and I'm
Speaker 1: not going to break it down long for for sake
Speaker 1: of time, but um, I would say that what I'm
Speaker 1: thinking is that, um, the data is horrible and it
Speaker 1: should crash, and it certainly should. But we know that
Speaker 1: the markets and the and the and the economy are
Speaker 1: not the same. We saw the entire world economy. I
Speaker 1: shut down businesses, we shut down, but yet markets rallied
Speaker 1: to new all time highs. So there's a complete disconnect there.
Speaker 1: And my thinking, Jeff, is that the FED is moving
Speaker 1: so fast, not just the FED, but the central banks
Speaker 1: around the world are moving so fast, and things are
Speaker 1: getting so bad so quickly that things are going to break.
Speaker 1: And we know they're going to pivot at some point,
Speaker 1: at some point being the key word, at some point,
Speaker 1: most likely when the liquidity is sucked out of the system.
Speaker 1: Right at some point they're going to be forced to act.
Speaker 1: Now when I don't think they're looking at the markets.
Speaker 1: I don't think they care about the NASDAC or the
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred but when the banking system freezes, they're
Speaker 1: going to be forced to act, and the thought processes
Speaker 1: the markets are sort of calling their bluff. Everybody knows
Speaker 1: they're going to have to pivot at some point, so
Speaker 1: who can hold out longer? And the thought process is
Speaker 1: maybe things break and the FED is forced to pivot
Speaker 1: off of that before the markets get that draw down,
Speaker 1: what's your thoughts on that? And like maybe probabilities of that,
Speaker 1: So that's a definite possibility the in your right, like
Speaker 1: as investors, we have to think in terms of probabilities, right,
Speaker 1: not absolute. So that's why I use things like trailing
Speaker 1: stop losses in case I'm wrong. I have my macro views,
Speaker 1: but I can certainly be wrong. I've been wrong lots
Speaker 1: of times, and I'll be wrong lots of times in
Speaker 1: the future. So where could we be wrong now? Right? So, yes,
Speaker 1: if the system breaks, if we see basically the banking
Speaker 1: system frees up, if we see some instability or signs
Speaker 1: of trouble and the treasury market UM, that would cause
Speaker 1: them to swoop in and act and they would definitely
Speaker 1: start buying bonds. The thing that I think is a
Speaker 1: little bit different this time around, though, UM is that
Speaker 1: I think they're still going to raise keep rates at
Speaker 1: this higher level for longer, even if they do come
Speaker 1: out in buy bonds, and even if the Treasury comes out,
Speaker 1: you know, Janet Yellen sort of um alluded to the
Speaker 1: fact that they may do some clever buying, maybe like
Speaker 1: an operation twist from the Treasury itself where they issue
Speaker 1: some short term bonds and buy longer dated bonds. Um,
Speaker 1: they may do that. That would be kind of a
Speaker 1: que type move. Um. Certainly that could happen. Certainly if
Speaker 1: the system breaks in the bond market starts to seize
Speaker 1: up a bit um, that would force them to act.
Speaker 1: So I totally concede that, and I think if that
Speaker 1: does happen, by the way, it would be um in
Speaker 1: uh concurrent with equities dropping precipitously, so similar to kind
Speaker 1: of a March type event. I think that if we
Speaker 1: see serious trouble in the bond markets, I think equities
Speaker 1: are absolutely gonna crash and it could sort of pull
Speaker 1: forward all of this barishness all into one you know,
Speaker 1: one week or one month or something like that at
Speaker 1: the point. And then at that point I could see
Speaker 1: the Fed pivot and we'd we'd be on our way
Speaker 1: to the next bull market. What would you say the
Speaker 1: probability of the FED breaking and being forced to pivot
Speaker 1: there before the stocks dropped by or whatever. Is that
Speaker 1: a chance the thirty or fifty even lower than twenty.
Speaker 1: I think kind of a ten percent chance, I would
Speaker 1: I'm yeah, that's very pretty unlikely for me to happen.
Speaker 1: I think that equities are so sensitive to that that
Speaker 1: I think they would, uh, they would be dropping pretty precipitously,
Speaker 1: but obviously could be wrong. Yeah, I would say I'm
Speaker 1: more the thirty camp. I've had these this conversation, this
Speaker 1: exact conversation at length with Nick and Nick Botia from
Speaker 1: the Bitcoin Layer, and he says about fifty. So just
Speaker 1: for everybody listening, but none of us have a crystal
Speaker 1: ball Lewis, what do you? What do you think about that?
Speaker 1: I'm pretty much agree with Dr Rupert Ross here. I
Speaker 1: think FAT has been very clear on the interest rate
Speaker 1: and on the monetary policy, and I think the next
Speaker 1: you're gonna see is the FAT is going to cut
Speaker 1: the balance sheet to the point that markets are jupanic
Speaker 1: and um and we haven't even reached there yet. We're
Speaker 1: just raising the interest rate UM, you know quarter by
Speaker 1: quarter and now we are we are seeing you know,
Speaker 1: there's a possibility the FAT is going to cut the
Speaker 1: balance sheet maybe next year if one or Q two UM,
Speaker 1: and that's going to cost a lot of the equity problem,
Speaker 1: uh in the in the markets especially you know, bond
Speaker 1: and equity UM definitely not seen an end to this.
Speaker 1: And I'm not gonna sounds so barries because I'm I'm
Speaker 1: invested in bitcoin UM, but bitcoin is going to correlate
Speaker 1: it with the equity market UM. And there's no escape
Speaker 1: for this because it's still at risk asset for some
Speaker 1: institution to own UM. And but the longer term, after
Speaker 1: the maybe we are just speculating on the big crash
Speaker 1: before the FAT pivot um bitcoin. Should we have a
Speaker 1: larger run up after that? But for that you happened
Speaker 1: when did you have a serious it commic contraction a
Speaker 1: recession UM? And how how the FAT is going to
Speaker 1: monitor the recession is going to be the very tricky thing,
Speaker 1: because why do we need that? You said, we said
Speaker 1: we need it? Why why do we need It's not
Speaker 1: we need the registered sssion, it's the fact it's intentionally
Speaker 1: pulling the economy into recession to stop the inflation rising
Speaker 1: and stop the speculation bobo going on in there. But
Speaker 1: just like they did inwy they literally shut the entire
Speaker 1: economy down, but we still saw markets rally. Yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but we probably need some sort of a crush before
Speaker 1: the fast started to take the moltary current, the current
Speaker 1: monetary policy seriously before to acting. People just parting in
Speaker 1: the cash, parting the fixed income type of investment. Um.
Speaker 1: Maybe they want to buy some insurance such as bitcoin
Speaker 1: to prevent you know what, I what I see is
Speaker 1: the total collapse of the monetary policy of the FAT
Speaker 1: and this they will be losing a lot of trust
Speaker 1: and and they have to bring a lot of money
Speaker 1: just save what they have done. Yeah, definitely, And you
Speaker 1: know what, I what I see, the faster things fall apart,
Speaker 1: the more they react and overreact, and it's almost like
Speaker 1: they're just doing our marketing for us, just building the
Speaker 1: reasons why we need this. As I said kind of earlier,
Speaker 1: that we only as humans, unfortunately, we only typically act
Speaker 1: when the pain is high enough. Right. The drug addict
Speaker 1: doesn't go to rehab until they hit rock bottom or whatever.
Speaker 1: I don't go see the chiropractor until I throw my
Speaker 1: back out or whatever. But in emerging markets, they know
Speaker 1: why they need it, which is why their first two adopted.
Speaker 1: In the United States, you're going out to a bar
Speaker 1: in Manhattan ordering a fifteen dollar cocktail and you're like, oh,
Speaker 1: why do we need new money? And you just don't
Speaker 1: get it. But they're certainly showing us. If you're just
Speaker 1: tuning in, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. Of course,
Speaker 1: we talked about the decentralized Revolution. I am in the
Speaker 1: studio with Dr Jeff Ross, Nico from Simply Bitcoin, and
Speaker 1: Louis lou We are talking about bitcoin and the macro picture.
Speaker 1: We got a lot more to cover. We'll be come
Speaker 1: back in a minute. Don't go away, We'll be right back.
Speaker 1: All right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark
Speaker 1: Mos Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution. We are
Speaker 1: in the studio today with I got three special guests,
Speaker 1: Louis lu Nico from Simply Bitcoin and Dr Jeff Ross.
Speaker 1: We're warming up for the Pacific Bitcoin Conference coming up
Speaker 1: next week. If you don't already have a ticket, check
Speaker 1: it out. Just go on do uh your favorite search engine.
Speaker 1: It's for a Pacific Bitcoin and check it out. We'll
Speaker 1: all be there hanging out. Come see us now, UM
Speaker 1: talking back about this kind of macro picture here and
Speaker 1: and where where a bitcoin fits in? Um? You know, Nico,
Speaker 1: when you look at like um, how the governments have
Speaker 1: responded to printing too much currency, debasing currency? N three.
Speaker 1: They seized gold, um, and then they gave you money
Speaker 1: for it, But then they quickly devalued gold from twenty
Speaker 1: to thirty five bucks, and then you lost even more money.
Speaker 1: But if all my gold was in the bank, I
Speaker 1: got screwed. But if I had a working ranch with
Speaker 1: a hundred thousand head of cattle, didn't really bother me. Right,
Speaker 1: I was out of their game. So if as long
Speaker 1: as we're in their house at their party, then their
Speaker 1: rules can affect us. If we're outside of their house
Speaker 1: at our own party, maybe they don't. In that example
Speaker 1: of the gold, I know you're younger, you have this
Speaker 1: longer viewpoint this this land. But is that maybe a
Speaker 1: way you're looking at it, or or if so, reframe
Speaker 1: that for me. Absolutely. Look, the reality is that we
Speaker 1: are living just like human and human history. We went
Speaker 1: through this separation of church and state. Hopefully this is
Speaker 1: a lot less bloody. Right, we're living through the separation
Speaker 1: of money and state, and the state gets a tremendous
Speaker 1: amount of power from having the monopoly on the issuance
Speaker 1: of money, which everyone else has to work for. Right,
Speaker 1: It's it's crazy how that works. Right now, Bitcoin in
Speaker 1: this equation is for the first time in human history,
Speaker 1: no matter what country you are in, you can memorize
Speaker 1: a twelve word seed phrase, and you could store millions,
Speaker 1: billions or trillions of dollars theoretically in your mind. And
Speaker 1: now all of a sudden, you have the power to
Speaker 1: not only vote with your wallet, but you have the
Speaker 1: power to vote with your feet, right, And that completely
Speaker 1: changes the power or the relationships between individuals and what
Speaker 1: I call the mob, the collective, the government, the state, right,
Speaker 1: And that's the future we're heading into. But the state
Speaker 1: isn't just going to go gently into that good night.
Speaker 1: So what you're seeing, right is you're seeing the social attacks,
Speaker 1: whether that's the attacks on proof of work. Mining. Without
Speaker 1: proof of work, you know, you can corrupt bitcoin. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: is what keeps bitcoin. Uh, proof of work is what
Speaker 1: keeps bitcoin uncorruptible. Right, So you know when Europe they're
Speaker 1: already touting it out, we should ban bitcoin mining, and
Speaker 1: you know the Chinese Communist Party did it in mainland China.
Speaker 1: Uh in New York State, they banned it, you know,
Speaker 1: for environmental reasons. Right, that's bs right, It's all about
Speaker 1: power at the end of the day. And the second attack,
Speaker 1: which I believe is going to be a lot more
Speaker 1: nefarious and definitely more successful if you know, the educators
Speaker 1: don't do the job. Is the right to self custody,
Speaker 1: and that ties in with what you were saying about
Speaker 1: the gold mark. Right if individuals, because this is what
Speaker 1: the bitcoin revolution is about. If enough individuals take their
Speaker 1: bitcoin into self custody, there's absolute reolutely nothing the state
Speaker 1: could do about it. Because the difference between what happened
Speaker 1: with the six one o two order in the nineteen
Speaker 1: nineteen thirties with FDR is that because gold is so heavy,
Speaker 1: it is really hard to custody, right, unless you're gonna
Speaker 1: build a giant safe under your house or you know,
Speaker 1: keep it under your bed. So what most people did
Speaker 1: is they outsourced that responsibility to banks, and it became
Speaker 1: very easy for the government to co opt a handful
Speaker 1: of banks. Right, and if people don't take self custody.
Speaker 1: The same thing is gonna play out. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: very easy for governments to just co opt a couple
Speaker 1: of exchanges six one oh three it maybe it's not
Speaker 1: too maybe it's a six one oh three, and they'll
Speaker 1: just rug poll everybody. They'll hand them, you know, the
Speaker 1: new version of you know, the the new version of
Speaker 1: whatever FIAT they come up with. And the only people
Speaker 1: that we're actually going to be able to hold onto
Speaker 1: their wealth completely are the are the individuals that learned
Speaker 1: how to take how learned how to learn how to
Speaker 1: take self custody. So I hope that answers your question, mark, Yeah, definitely.
Speaker 1: You know, back to kind of this debasement. So as
Speaker 1: the FED creates more money into existence through all the
Speaker 1: policies and tools that they have, um, it devalues the
Speaker 1: existing ones. Right, there's more of them, they're worth less.
Speaker 1: And that's why inflation prices going up is because of
Speaker 1: of that edition of the money supply. Whereas bitcoin, one
Speaker 1: bitcoin is always worth one bitcoin. You can't artificially increase
Speaker 1: increase more. Now when you look at it in a
Speaker 1: US dollar term, because the US dollar number is manipulated,
Speaker 1: it can look like that one Bitcoin gets you less dollars.
Speaker 1: But I think we could see, you know, back to
Speaker 1: kind of our example of Nigeria, for example, where the
Speaker 1: government really starts to impose the central bank digital currency
Speaker 1: and what happens in black markets as you see prices
Speaker 1: all over the board. So maybe you know this bag
Speaker 1: of rice that you want priced in their central bank
Speaker 1: digital currency is one price, but in Bitcoin it's a
Speaker 1: whole different price point. And so you could see Bitcoin
Speaker 1: really kind of starting to build out this parallel ecosystem,
Speaker 1: is parallel economy, and you could see then that price
Speaker 1: of what Bitcoin gets wouldn't be manipulated because it would
Speaker 1: be on its own economy. And that's one way I
Speaker 1: see it really starting to break out. As this plays out,
Speaker 1: I want to jump back over to Dr Jeff Dr
Speaker 1: Jeff Ross here, so um, let's run through just kind
Speaker 1: of like, uh, maybe what your base cases. We're all
Speaker 1: very clear here there's no such thing as certainties. Uh,
Speaker 1: everything is possible, but then we have probabilities. So like
Speaker 1: base case, so do you think, uh if I if I,
Speaker 1: if I read it right from you, maybe Jeff, it's
Speaker 1: like you know, probably you already kind of said the
Speaker 1: economy crashes into three. At some point, the liquidity drives up.
Speaker 1: At some point when the bank sees up, the Feds
Speaker 1: force to pivot. Uh. Just like they've overreacted every time,
Speaker 1: they'll probably overreact again. Probably assets go sky high. Is
Speaker 1: that something that plays out in the next three months,
Speaker 1: twelve months, three years, just a base case obviously, Uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know if if you want to answer that. Sure, Sure,
Speaker 1: obviously I'm just guessing, Like you know, we're all just guessing.
Speaker 1: So take it, take it all with a grain of salt.
Speaker 1: But the way I look at it, I think this
Speaker 1: economic cycle is it looks like it's going to bottom
Speaker 1: um in probably the summer of three, somewhere around that,
Speaker 1: you know, and markets are forward looking, and bitcoin being
Speaker 1: the freest of markets, the truly only capitalist market, it's
Speaker 1: going to see this coming out first. It's gonna sniff
Speaker 1: the light at the end of the tunnel, just like
Speaker 1: it's sniffed trouble under the hood way back in November. Um. So,
Speaker 1: the way I see it is, I think we're going
Speaker 1: to be in the throes of a recession throughout the
Speaker 1: first half of It's gonna get even uglier into the summer.
Speaker 1: But risk assets should bottom somewhere around there. They usually
Speaker 1: bottom kind of in the first half or first third
Speaker 1: of a recession, and then they actually start to come
Speaker 1: up even as the economy continues to kind of struggle
Speaker 1: and grind lower. Um So, I actually think by the
Speaker 1: end of three we're going to be on an up
Speaker 1: slope finally with bitcoin, and then I think that's gonna
Speaker 1: set up for five to be again this massive infusion
Speaker 1: of liquidity QUEI infinity is going to be in full effect.
Speaker 1: Risk assets will do well, and I think Bitcoin is
Speaker 1: going to be the primary beneficiary of that. Very excited
Speaker 1: for Yeah, I'm just gonna add on to the back
Speaker 1: of that, just as our own disclaimer is that we're
Speaker 1: all in in chartered territory. Things are happening so fast,
Speaker 1: we're at a as I said, started out the show,
Speaker 1: the insanity of of somebody telling us what's what's happening,
Speaker 1: and so none of us know, and so really we're
Speaker 1: taking this play by play, and so even though we
Speaker 1: can think, Okay, this is probably what happens, they can
Speaker 1: come out tomorrow just change the whole thing. And so
Speaker 1: really you have to kind of be paying attention to that.
Speaker 1: Um So, I just kinda throw that out, Louis. We
Speaker 1: got just another minute left. What's your thoughts on how
Speaker 1: this plays out over the next you know, year or
Speaker 1: two three years. Yeah, I think bitcoin is still the
Speaker 1: most desirable US you know, during during DOS recession time
Speaker 1: and the market crush and and after that, you know
Speaker 1: that the equity that will pull in from the fat um.
Speaker 1: You know. I think there's so many reasons that you know,
Speaker 1: people should own bitcoin, not just be cost him by
Speaker 1: Corn calling me is bad, um or my Cody column
Speaker 1: is good. I think I think, I think like this,
Speaker 1: like bitcoins is just an insurance against this, you know, um,
Speaker 1: the father reserve, the center banking that has alradio of
Speaker 1: control and you need that kind of insurance to hatch
Speaker 1: against you know what if um, you know, the voluntary
Speaker 1: policy that we used to know collapse and in the
Speaker 1: next couple of years, right, and I think we should
Speaker 1: buy bitcoin to hatchick and stuff that's right by bitcoin.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Mark Moa show. We're talking about
Speaker 1: the decentralized Revolution. Each and every week, I've been in
Speaker 1: the studio with Dr Jeff Ross. You can find him
Speaker 1: on Twitter at the Doctor at Dr Jeff Roth. We
Speaker 1: got Nico at bit Vault seven at bibill seven, and
Speaker 1: Lewis at Louis H. Lou So check him out on Twitter,
Speaker 1: give him a follow. Like I said, this is a
Speaker 1: warm up to Pacific Bitcoin that's coming up next week
Speaker 1: in Los Angeles. If you don't have a ticket, you
Speaker 1: should get one. Uh. Hopefully this made some sense. Hopefully
Speaker 1: it gives you some clarity, and that's what I got.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.