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Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys watched the vice presidential debate,

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Speaker 1: but jd Vance was on fire. He was articulate. He

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Speaker 1: drove home what the Trump Dvance ticket would do, what

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Speaker 1: a Trump Vance administration would look like. He talked about

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Speaker 1: how the fact that Donald Trump governed from a common

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Speaker 1: sense standpoint. He was quick on his feet, he was likable,

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Speaker 1: he was approachable. I mean, the guy just crushed it.

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Speaker 1: But well, the debate matter. Do vice presidential debates matter?

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Speaker 1: They haven't as much in the past, But we're in

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Speaker 1: a new era, a new environment will change the election.

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Speaker 1: We've seen in polling that today this election has pretty

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Speaker 1: much been a coin flip. Can we believe the polls?

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Speaker 1: How much of what we are seeing is real? How

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Speaker 1: much of polling is real? We're going to talk to

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Speaker 1: someone who's been in the political game for a very

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Speaker 1: long time. He is one of the founding directors a

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Speaker 1: co founder of On Message, which is a political strategy

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Speaker 1: firm with some of the top political strategists in the country.

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Speaker 1: They lead campaigns at basically every level in every state.

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Speaker 1: They've steered political committee arms of the US Senate, US

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Speaker 1: representatives and worked with people on both the federal and

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Speaker 1: state candidates on the federal and state level, so you know,

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Speaker 1: big time group. So we're going to talk to one

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Speaker 1: of the co founders, Brad Todd, who has been in

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Speaker 1: the game for a long time, who sees polling by

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Speaker 1: the way on a daily basis with some of the

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Speaker 1: campaigns and candidates that he's working with this election cycle.

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Speaker 1: So we're going to talk to him about what's really

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Speaker 1: going on, what's happening on the ground, the inside scoop,

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Speaker 1: about what you need to know, how much is campaigning

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Speaker 1: changed over the years as well, So we'll get into

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Speaker 1: the discussion of current political environment where he thinks this

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Speaker 1: campaign cycle is going both for presidential as well as

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Speaker 1: House and Senate, and also just a little bit more

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Speaker 1: of a deep dive on how campaigns have changed over

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Speaker 1: the years. I think it's a really interesting conversation with

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Speaker 1: a guy who knows a lot. He's also the co

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Speaker 1: author of The Great Revolt Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping

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Speaker 1: American Politics, So interesting conversation with these interesting times. Stay tuned.

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Speaker 2: Well, Brad Todd.

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Speaker 1: I've known you for a while, but this is the

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Speaker 1: first time having you on the show. Appreciate you making

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Speaker 1: the time and looking forward to hearing your insight and

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Speaker 1: this this crazy election cycle that we're having.

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Speaker 2: Oh glad to be here, Lisa, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: Well, I guess has this been the craziest election cycle

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Speaker 1: you've experienced in your career?

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Speaker 2: You know, if you could take any one of the

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Speaker 2: major events in this and it would still be the

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Speaker 2: craziest election cycle we've ever done. You know, I've been

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Speaker 2: doing this twenty five years and I can't think of

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Speaker 2: any three elections that came close to this if you

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Speaker 2: had them all together. An assassination attempt or two conviction

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Speaker 2: of one of the hand that's running dropping out of

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Speaker 2: an incumbent president mid cycle, it's just nuts.

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Speaker 1: Has that made your job and trying to you know,

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Speaker 1: advise candidates and sort of like navigate this how much

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Speaker 1: more difficult as that kind of major job. Well, as

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Speaker 1: you've gone through the cycle.

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Speaker 2: You know it is a little bit more difficult because

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Speaker 2: these major events cause sea changes in what the conversation

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Speaker 2: is around all elections for a few weeks. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's crazy. If you told me we would have an assassination attempt,

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Speaker 2: I would say that's going to be the entire conversation

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Speaker 2: the rest of the race. But in fact, that's not

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Speaker 2: what has happened in this election. And some of that's

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Speaker 2: because the country's so polarized. You know, there are two

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Speaker 2: very hard partisan bases, and most people in those bases

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Speaker 2: are not kenids to switch sides. So that polarization causes

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Speaker 2: these waves to settle out quickly. But this cycle, we've

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Speaker 2: had a lot of new waves pop up.

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Speaker 1: It gets to that point and sort of this hurden

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Speaker 1: political environment that we are living in we're in with

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Speaker 1: the tribalism or however you want to couch it. How

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Speaker 1: do you persuade what's left of the persuadables in that environment?

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Speaker 1: How do you change the dynamics of a race and

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Speaker 1: that kind of environment.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, we're having conversation. Uh, in all our

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Speaker 2: races now, you know, there are very few undecideds in

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Speaker 2: any races. They're both contested house races and center races

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Speaker 2: in addition to the presidential Uh for the most part,

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Speaker 2: undecided and in all these races look similar. They are

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Speaker 2: they lean a little bit to the right. Uh, they

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Speaker 2: tend to be non college educated. They skew a little

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Speaker 2: bit male, which is unusual. Usually the undecided to late

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Speaker 2: our skew female, but this year they skew male. Uh,

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Speaker 2: they are a little bit more favorable to former President

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Speaker 2: Trump than the electorate at large is they're pretty down

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Speaker 2: on President Biden. But they also all are not really

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Speaker 2: that engaged in politics. I mean, we're now fighting over

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Speaker 2: voters who are politics is not the top of mind

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Speaker 2: for them and it's not a priority. Uh they are

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Speaker 2: if they if it was a priority, they probably would

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Speaker 2: have been polarized into one of the two camps. So

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Speaker 2: it's also very hard to reach them through all means

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Speaker 2: grandt rates or advertising.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say, how do you know,

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Speaker 1: how do you mobilize a voter like that? To Also,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of like it's hard to imagine with everything

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Speaker 1: you know going on with you know, like potential World war,

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Speaker 1: you know, with this ethnic you know, it's.

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Speaker 2: Like just with the diary hard to get through.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of like but it's kind of like, I

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Speaker 1: don't know, if they're not mobilized by all of this, Like,

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Speaker 1: how do you get someone like that mobilized?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, I think one thing you have to

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Speaker 2: do is start where they are, uh, and you have

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Speaker 2: to start with the fact that they're conflicted, and they

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Speaker 2: see faults on both sides. And I think that's a

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Speaker 2: real challenge for the Trump campaign and Donald Trump himself

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Speaker 2: and for Kamala Harris is to spend these last few

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Speaker 2: weeks acknowledging you know, look, you may not always agree

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Speaker 2: with me, or you may not all always like how

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Speaker 2: I describe things, or I may not have been perfect.

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Speaker 2: That's very, very hard for success politicians to do. Uh,

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Speaker 2: But I think you're you have a much better chance

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Speaker 2: of opening the conversation with these last few undecided if

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Speaker 2: you just start where they are, which is, hey, everybody

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Speaker 2: up here is pretty flawed. Your choices are all imperfect,

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Speaker 2: because that's what they think about all politics, but they

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Speaker 2: so especially they think about about this field. So I

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Speaker 2: guess the way.

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Speaker 1: I feel where we are now heading into November is

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Speaker 1: I think I would rather be team Trump than Team Harris.

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Speaker 1: The reason being is that you know, Trump's numbers are

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Speaker 1: already kind of locked in, right, Like everyone knows he's

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Speaker 1: the most like prosecuted, persecuted, written about, condemned, you know

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Speaker 1: person probably in America, So you know his number, like

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Speaker 1: everyone knows who he is. Like, there's not a lot

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Speaker 1: of room to you know, it's turned her to you know,

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Speaker 1: persuade I think for or against him in a sense

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Speaker 1: where she's a relatively unknown entity, particularly in this space

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Speaker 1: as a presidential candidate, so there's more room to inform

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Speaker 1: and to try try to drive her numbers down and

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Speaker 1: to try to sour voters on her. And then you know,

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Speaker 1: also if you look at polling in the past, this

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Speaker 1: is the best he's ever done heading into an election cycle,

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Speaker 1: even more than twenty sixteen or twenty twenty, when polls

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Speaker 1: tend to underestimate a support. So I feel like, if

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Speaker 1: you were to do a side by side comparison, I'd

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Speaker 1: probably rather be team Trump right now than team Harris.

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Speaker 1: I guess what do you make of that? And you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of what are your thoughts?

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Speaker 2: Well, in a very polarized, locked up election without many undecided,

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Speaker 2: then ake us have to say the person with the

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Speaker 2: hardest base of support probably has an advantage. I've thought

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Speaker 2: since they swapped out Harris for Biden that she had

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Speaker 2: a lot more upside with Biden, but she also had

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Speaker 2: a significant downside. And you know it was it presented

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Speaker 2: Democrats with an opportunity to start over in a race

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Speaker 2: that they were certainly going to lose, but it also

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Speaker 2: gave them a candidate with an old new set of flaws.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: For instance, I'm working in the Senate race in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 2: and so I see a lot data in Pennsylvania, and

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Speaker 2: there was a persistent group of voters in Pennsylvania who

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Speaker 2: had some illogical affinity for Joe Biden, if you will, right,

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Speaker 2: they were people who are right of center on many

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Speaker 2: mountters and cultural matters. For instance, maybe they are gun owners,

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Speaker 2: maybe they are working class and sort of don't agree

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Speaker 2: with where the Democrats are on a lot of crazy

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Speaker 2: social positions they take, you know, girls playing men playing

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Speaker 2: girl sports, for example. But those voters were just trench

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Speaker 2: of them that were of stubbornly loyal to Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: Why is that, Well, it's because he's from scrant He's

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Speaker 2: was been a senator who is in the Philadelphia media

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Speaker 2: market forever, and a lot of those they were disproportionately older,

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Speaker 2: and they disproportionately sort of had this old nostalgia for

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Speaker 2: the Joe Biden they had once known before he could

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Speaker 2: basically outsourced his administration to Elizabeth Warren. And so for

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Speaker 2: those voters, you know, suddenly Kamblo Harris does not fit

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Speaker 2: with Joe Biden. So that's a good example of how

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Speaker 2: I think she had a lot more downside, you know,

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Speaker 2: as for who I'd rather be. Thirdly, the structure favors

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Speaker 2: former President Trump. All he has to do is win

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Speaker 2: North Carolina and Pennsylvania and he will be the president

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Speaker 2: of the United States. I'm confident he's gonna win Georgia,

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Speaker 2: even though it's close. So I really think for his

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Speaker 2: pack it just comes down to win those two states.

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Speaker 2: And if you look at it, Pennsylvania is the state

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Speaker 2: he's won before, and then last time in twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: he got forty eight percent with Democrats literally doing everything possible.

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Speaker 2: He he I think has an appeal to some crossover voters,

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Speaker 2: Democrats and independents in Pennsylvania. So these are this is

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Speaker 2: a very doable task for him. You look at North

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Speaker 2: Carolina and you know Republicans have won every Senate or

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Speaker 2: presidential election there except for two times in the Senate

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Speaker 2: one presidential year since the seventies. So he ought to

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Speaker 2: be able to win both those both those states if

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Speaker 2: the campaign works out the way he wants, and the

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Speaker 2: rest of October and that's that's so structurally, I think

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Speaker 2: I would rather be him. The argument for her is

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Speaker 2: she's had the momentum. She definitely, I think did have

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Speaker 2: a very good debate, We're being honest, and I think

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Speaker 2: she that momentum carried her for another couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: She'd got a lot of the press corps on her side,

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Speaker 2: in the legacy media, and that certainly has enabled her

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Speaker 2: to hide from tough interviews. That's been a momentum helper.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's that's that's the argument for both of

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Speaker 2: them on who you'd rather be.

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Speaker 1: We've got more on the election cycle, but first, in

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Speaker 1: dot com or call eight four four eight two four

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Speaker 1: safe today. That's eight four four eight two four safe.

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Speaker 1: Although I had Robert Kaheleia on the show with Trafalgar

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Speaker 1: Group after the debate, and he made a point that

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Speaker 1: I thought was really interesting of that she might have

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Speaker 1: objectively won the debate in terms of you know, look,

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Speaker 1: she had a better debate performance. I think, even as

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Speaker 1: a Republican who supports Trump, I can admit that, but

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Speaker 1: that didn't necessarily resonate with likability or moving people in

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Speaker 1: her direction. And you know, he pointed to some of

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Speaker 1: the numbers that he was seeing and the polls after

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Speaker 1: the debate, and then also, you know, the New York

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Speaker 1: Times did that interview piece with a bunch of undecided voters,

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Speaker 1: and they were still on the fence, still had questions

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Speaker 1: about her, didn't feel like she differentiated herself enough from Biden,

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Speaker 1: and so you know, he kind of made the point

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Speaker 1: of like, you can still technically win a debate while

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Speaker 1: also not necessarily moving the needle from that debate on

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Speaker 1: terms of likability and moving people into your side, which

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Speaker 1: I thought was sort of an interesting, you know, point

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Speaker 1: of view to have. You do you think this debate

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Speaker 1: that we saw with you know, I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: Vance performed extremely well during last night's to beate. I

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Speaker 1: think he also came across as likable. It seemed like

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Speaker 1: he sort of had a softened approach, so perhaps he

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Speaker 1: was trying to reach reach independence and women from the performance.

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Speaker 1: Do you think last night's debate will have any impact?

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Speaker 1: You know, I know they don't tend to, but we've

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Speaker 1: not had as many debates this cycle, you know, kind

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Speaker 1: of like, what are your takeaways from it and does

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Speaker 1: it matter?

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Speaker 2: Well? I think there are two groups I think that

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Speaker 2: are pretty important for the Trump campaign as they've moved

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Speaker 2: down the last couple of weeks. One of them is

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Speaker 2: a group that I like to call manage their men,

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Speaker 2: although there certainly are some college educated Republican women that

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Speaker 2: fit this category as well. Manager man strips is into

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Speaker 2: more into some independence and people who are not strict conservatives,

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Speaker 2: but they think the Biden administration has been an organizational disaster.

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Speaker 2: I think jd Vance last night was playing toward that cohort.

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Speaker 2: That they are almost exclusively white collar voters. They tend

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Speaker 2: to live in places around other white collar voters where

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Speaker 2: Donald tempt to struggled. However, they think the Biden administration's

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Speaker 2: policy has been a disaster, and so that group of men.

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Speaker 2: There are people who have not voted for a lot

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Speaker 2: of Democrats in their in their in their life, but

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Speaker 2: but or we're willing to consider it again this time.

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Speaker 2: I think Jade Evance was working really hard last night

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Speaker 2: on that group. The second group is is what I

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Speaker 2: call xbox owners, uh and you know, very younger, younger cohort,

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Speaker 2: not nearest college educated, uh and really disconnected from politics.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know that he worked very hard at

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Speaker 2: that group last night, but I think he was picked

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Speaker 2: in part to appeal to that group just had a

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Speaker 2: new generational appeal for Trump on the ticket. And so

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Speaker 2: I don't know that I heard him talking a lot

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Speaker 2: about the issues that those voters care about. But I

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Speaker 2: do think that, uh, that those two groups are the

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Speaker 2: key for for Trump heading down the stretch.

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Speaker 1: I guess my broader can her and as you know,

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Speaker 1: what I said previously, I'd rather be Trump than her.

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Speaker 1: Is your Democrats tend to have a better turnout ground

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Speaker 1: game than we do. Do you think we've we've done not?

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Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned, you know, I think obviously you know,

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Speaker 1: you know you mentioned. I think this election cycle probably

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Speaker 1: comes down to I feel like you'll win North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: but I worry about Pennsylvania and in part because of

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Speaker 1: that ground game, that turnout operation that Democrats have been

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Speaker 1: able to have, and you know, also some room for

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Speaker 1: Tom Fulery Shenanigans as well.

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Speaker 2: Sure well, Chris do do a better job mechanically on turnout.

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Speaker 2: Most years, you know their their vote. Their vote is

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Speaker 2: typically very group based.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: And so there's the the structural here. You know, let

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Speaker 2: me send you an absentee ballot, let me call you

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Speaker 2: and harass you till you send your absentee ballot in.

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Speaker 2: And if you don't send your abency ballot in, We're

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Speaker 2: going to pick you up and drive you to the polls.

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Speaker 2: And that is a that is a that that's a

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Speaker 2: that strategy has worked a lot better for them over

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Speaker 2: the years. Republican turnout work tends to be persuasion oriented, right,

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Speaker 2: you have to you have to make a Democrat mobilized,

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Speaker 2: you have to make a Republican irritated. That's often how

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Speaker 2: it turnout works. And so I do think that the

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Speaker 2: mechanics this time for the Trump campaign are better than

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Speaker 2: he's had an either race before. He's had a very

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Speaker 2: professional campaign team that had a real big head start,

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Speaker 2: and they have done a lot of things, for instance,

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Speaker 2: on the ground in Pennsylvania and another state I'm setting

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Speaker 2: up close. You know, the Republicans. The gap between Democrats

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Speaker 2: and Republicans and mail balloting is much closer than it

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Speaker 2: was in twenty twenty. It's closer it was in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two. Well, that doesn't have by accident. That's because

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Speaker 2: it's being actively worked, and that's a weapon in or

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Speaker 2: President Trump's campaign arsenal that he's never had before.

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Speaker 1: Now does some of that speak to then? You know,

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Speaker 1: I guess what does the enthusiasm look like for her?

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Speaker 1: Because you Democrats obviously tend to do better in the

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Speaker 1: mail in ballots than we do. You know, we're more

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Speaker 1: kind of like game day type thing on election day

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Speaker 1: or you know, early voting or whatever. But does that

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Speaker 1: speak to like, maybe people aren't as excited about her,

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Speaker 1: and like even though the poll line shows it's tight,

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Speaker 1: that like, it's going to be harder to mobilize people

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Speaker 1: to be excited about her.

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Speaker 2: Or I think we I think most of us expect

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Speaker 2: turnout to drop some from twenty twenty. You know a

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Speaker 2: lot of people are still sitting at home with not

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Speaker 2: much to do in twenty twenty, so why not vote?

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Speaker 2: You know, so I think turnout will be a little less,

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Speaker 2: and I think turnout enthusiasm for her it varies. Right

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Speaker 2: if for college educated liberals who live around other college

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Speaker 2: educated liberals, they have not been this excited about a

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Speaker 2: presidential election since two thousand and eight. And that's one

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Speaker 2: reason you see in some of the media polls she

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Speaker 2: outperforms what I think is reality. It's because those college

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Speaker 2: educated liberals are literally climbing through the telephone to tell

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Speaker 2: us scrape eacher what they think. And so I think

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Speaker 2: she does have enthusiasm with that. But you're talking about

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Speaker 2: thirty percent of the country, even before you subtract out

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Speaker 2: the Republicans in that group. So it's a It's not

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Speaker 2: a tremendous, tremendous number overall in the grand scheme of things,

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Speaker 2: but it's a loud number. So that's where I think

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Speaker 2: her challenge is to probably generate enthusiasm among people who

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Speaker 2: are lower income levels who the economy under Biden and

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Speaker 2: Harris had just crushed them, and trying to enthusias get

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Speaker 2: those those lower propensity, lower income democrats fired up to

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Speaker 2: do more of this. This is really hard for her, I.

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Speaker 1: Think, yeah, because you see our number, you know, kind

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Speaker 1: of because even you know, I can't remember what cha

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Speaker 1: Poole I saw, but I think it had him down

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Speaker 1: by twelve with women, but he lost to Hillary Clinton,

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Speaker 1: I believe by fifteen points with women in twenty sixteen

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Speaker 1: and still went on to win, or even with black voters.

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Speaker 1: She seems to be down than previous Democrats has ban it,

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Speaker 1: you know, so she's not sort of the coalition doesn't

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Speaker 1: look as strong as it has with past Democrat presidential candidates.

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Speaker 1: And it's interesting because even the you know, the New

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Speaker 1: York Times editorial board endorsing her, like they spent like

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Speaker 1: sixteen paragraphs talking about Trump, which was like way more

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Speaker 1: than telling us why Kamala. You know, it was all

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Speaker 1: just like we hate Trump. It wasn't a boost of Kamala,

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Speaker 1: whereas in twenty twenty, the entire endorsement was about how

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Speaker 1: great Joe Biden was, or you look at Tim Walls

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Speaker 1: and the debate where he really didn't defend her or

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Speaker 1: even push her record. He talked more about, you know,

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Speaker 1: his time as governor of Minnesota. And so it's like,

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Speaker 1: so I just worry about how that or I will

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Speaker 1: not worry because I want her to lose, But I

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Speaker 1: wonder how that correlates to It's hard to motivate people

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Speaker 1: if it's like if the New York Times he can't

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Speaker 1: even explain to its readers why Kamala. And it's just

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Speaker 1: then how are you mobilize that voter of being like, well,

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Speaker 1: why do we even turn out? You know what I mean?

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Speaker 1: It's like does that make sense in terms of.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I'm trying to well, yeah, there's this creative tension

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Speaker 2: going on in the Democrat messaging, right, it is like

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Speaker 2: what be it excited about what's next? Except don't focus

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Speaker 2: on how upset you are with how things are. And

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Speaker 2: so you can't talk about Kambala Harrison's accomplishments without also

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Speaker 2: owning this malaise that a lot of voters see us in,

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Speaker 2: with an economy that's been too stagnant, with the border

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Speaker 2: that's out of control, with the world that's on fire.

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Speaker 2: It's awfully hard to brag on her accomplishedness as vice

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Speaker 2: president and not have her not own up to that.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's why you don't see her doing many

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Speaker 2: inniverse interviews. It's uh, there's and it's whether it is

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Speaker 2: this inherent tension in their message. And you know, for

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Speaker 2: Democrats who are excited about her, you know, they're excited

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Speaker 2: about her because they think she might can beat Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: That's why they're excited about her. It's not about anything

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Speaker 2: she has done. Or promises to do uh, and their

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Speaker 2: their enthusiasm is limited to what she might do on

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Speaker 2: the liver of the bit. So that's uh, that's that's

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Speaker 2: also is kind of an empty uh pat forward, empty momentum,

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Speaker 2: if you will.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And then I think that's challenging in that environment too,

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Speaker 1: when you know, you look at some of the pulling.

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Speaker 1: I think it was like CNN not too long ago

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Speaker 1: found that there's actually like Trump nostalgia where a majority

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Speaker 1: of Americans look back at his administration, you know, fondly,

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Speaker 1: or you look at the fact he's leading on the

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Speaker 1: economy and immigration, so like it was probably easier to

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Speaker 1: run on I'm not Trump and you know, you know,

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Speaker 1: tack Donald Trump like they did in twenty sixteen or

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Speaker 1: even in twenty twenty a Joe Biden I'm not Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump mean tweets, you know, whatever, whatever, But it's harder

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Speaker 1: to do now when everything is so bad under the

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Speaker 1: current administration. People have nostalgia about his administration, and then

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Speaker 1: he also leads on you know, the two top issues

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Speaker 1: for voters, both the economy and and immigration. So I

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Speaker 1: think it's you know, that anti Trump narrative, you know,

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Speaker 1: from an objective standbanks or even a common sense standpoint,

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Speaker 1: it seems like it might be a little harder to drive,

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Speaker 1: not discounting the fact that you know, there are Americans

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Speaker 1: who obviously can't stand him, but I'm just given that

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Speaker 1: backdrop of the environment.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, every presidential election involves in the com

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Speaker 2: but it's always really centers on one question, are you

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Speaker 2: better up now than were four years ago? And well, she,

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Speaker 2: of course is the stand in incumbent for this administration,

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Speaker 2: and so I think that, uh, that's why you have

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Speaker 2: seen this election sort of stay on a pretty even

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Speaker 2: though the campaign around it has been very valid or

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Speaker 2: the polling has been relatively trading in very narrow bands,

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Speaker 2: and it's been it's simply because there's there's the majority

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Speaker 2: of the country is not really happy with where things

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Speaker 2: were are now relative four years ago.

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Speaker 1: If you if the media covered her with any sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, fair you know, we've seen the numbers

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00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 1: like eighty four percent positive from Media Research Center. I

435
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,719
Speaker 1: think ABC was like one hundred percent positive. And then

436
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 1: you know, obviously like eighty nine percent negative or Trump

437
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 1: or whatever it is. Uh, you know, how much influence

438
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 1: does that have on the electorate.

439
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: Well, it's declining. I think I think a lot of

440
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,120
Speaker 2: legacy media outlets are no longer respected by a great

441
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: deal of the country. You know. In my view, last night,

442
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:10,719
Speaker 2: I think Norah O'Donnell and Varter Brennan DIDs real damage

443
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 2: their long term professional credibility by you know, breaking their

444
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 2: own rules to fact check Jadie Vance, but they didn't

445
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 2: have the right facts, and then they cut off his

446
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 2: mic when he exposed that they didn't have the right facts.

447
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 2: And so I think that certainly there has been glowing

448
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 2: coverage and in much of the legacy media for her

449
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 2: h and not near enough holding her to account for

450
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 2: not being accountable to them in interviews. But I also

451
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 2: think it's a narrower, narrower group that's influenced by that.

452
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 2: You know, there probably were just as many people last

453
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 2: night who who decided they thought less of CBS than

454
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 2: they thought less of either one of those candidates. And

455
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: I think that's a very real factor.

456
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 1: We've got more with Brad on this election. But first,

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Speaker 1: eight two four safe today that's eight four four eight

480
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 1: two four safe. You know, looking at the Senate, it seems,

481
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: you know, Republicans will likely win back the Senate. You know,

482
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,239
Speaker 1: how do you where do you think some of these

483
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: races are going to fall down? And what do you think?

484
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 1: I assume the House will probably just follow whoever wins

485
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 1: the Senate and the presidency. But sort of what's looking

486
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 1: at sort of the congressional races, both Senate and House.

487
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 1: You know, how do you feel about the elector right now?

488
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 2: Well, Republic's going to take over the Senate. Uh, they're

489
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 2: gonna be fifty one senators when at a minimum when

490
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 2: we wake up on November. The questions for where it's

491
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 2: fifty two, fifty three or fifty four and why does

492
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 2: that matter if you're a conservative? Well, if fifty one,

493
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 2: you just in the next two years with Susan Collins

494
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 2: and Lisa Murkowski being in the same catbird seats that

495
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 2: Joe Manson and Kristen Cinema will were for the Democrats

496
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 2: the last couple of years, where those two most moderate

497
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 2: members of the Senate Repolican conference would have very heavy

498
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: handed negotiations and on everything to get the pass through

499
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: the Senate, even if Republicans of the White House would

500
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 2: require both of them, and so on most most things.

501
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 2: And so that's that's a question Conservatives have to consider.

502
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 2: The second thing is, you know the next two Senate cycles,

503
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 2: and you know, only a third of the Senate's up

504
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 2: each election, So twenty six and twenty eight, Republicans will

505
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 2: be playing more defense this year where there's not much

506
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 2: Republican defense happening. It's all offense against Democratic incumbents. And

507
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 2: so holding a fifty one seat Senate the next two

508
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 2: cycles is not going to be easy. So my contention

509
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 2: is always been that it would be a failure for

510
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,199
Speaker 2: Republicans to end up with fifty one, even though that

511
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 2: means taking control. I think Republicans need to be aiming

512
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 2: for fifty three or fifty four. This time. We have

513
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 2: the seats to do it. You know, the reason I

514
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 2: say fifty one is done because Joe Mansion Steed in

515
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 2: West Virginia is going to go to Jim Justice in Montana.

516
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 2: John Tester's time is up. You know, he's he's been

517
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 2: only thinking that is Montana about him as his haircut,

518
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 2: and so's his time is finally up. He's running great

519
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 2: Democratic years and lucked out a few times, but he's

520
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 2: going to lose this time. So that's fifty. I get

521
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: you to fifty one, and you have great chances for

522
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 2: Republicans to win in Pennsylvania with Dave McCormick, who is

523
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 2: running a great challenge to Bob Casey. You have in

524
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 2: Ohio state Trump's going to win by ten. I think

525
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: Bernie Moreno can beat Shared Brown there. You've got an

526
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 2: open seat in Michigan with Mike Rodgers who is running

527
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 2: against Alicia Slotkin, and there are plenty of undecided left

528
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 2: in that race. It's the state Donald Trump may carry,

529
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 2: and if so, he might be able to pull Mike

530
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 2: rod behind him. And then it Wisconsin, you know where

531
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 2: I think Tammy Baldwin has run an excellent race for

532
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 2: the Democrats, just tactically if I'm looking at the outside,

533
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: But you know, the state is more conservative than she is,

534
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 2: and the presidential race will be close, and so it

535
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 2: is still possible that she could also lose it.

536
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's an interesting state. I worked on the Tommy Thompson

537
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 1: for Senate campaign as his Commons director for the last

538
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 1: couple of months of the race against her. She's an

539
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: interesting character and it's an interesting state. So Alyssa Slotkin

540
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: was recently in a fundraising call. She was talking about

541
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: how her internal numbers have Kamala Harris underwater there. How

542
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 1: much of that do you think is I mean, obviously,

543
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 1: with these candidates, you're trying to get people's money, and

544
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: the only way to get money is if you're you know,

545
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 1: in a down position or it's a dogfighter or whatever.

546
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: How reflective of the environment do you think some of

547
00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: these pools that we're seeing truly are? And then you know,

548
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: I guess as pulling become less accurate over the years

549
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 1: or you know, kind of talk a little bit about

550
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 1: that in terms of, you know, trying to really get

551
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: the truth and assess where you are in a campaign

552
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: with today's pulling.

553
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 2: Well, first off, I take Sluckin's comments with a grain

554
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 2: of salt. You know, Democratic donors respond best to be flogged,

555
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: and so you have to tell them I'm losing. It's awful.

556
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 2: You have to save me. And then with their Messiah complex,

557
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: they write checks. On the Republican side, donors are a

558
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 2: lot more investor motivated. Right, they want to see that

559
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 2: you're almost produce a guaranteed return. That's what makes Republicans invest.

560
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 2: You know, if you give me money, I'll win. Democrats

561
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 2: response do better with If you don't give me money,

562
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 2: I'll lose. It's just an odd psychology that I don't

563
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 2: really fully understand how we got to this point. So

564
00:29:53,000 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: I would put a touch stock, but you know, is

565
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 2: getting harder because it's harder to get people to pick

566
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 2: up the phone and talk to a stranger for you know,

567
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes or so. And so therefore posters are all making,

568
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 2: you know, decisions about their sample frame that have real

569
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 2: impact on the final numbers. And they're trying to do

570
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 2: their best to trying to figure out who's going to vote.

571
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 2: But there's some art to go with the science, and

572
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 2: you know, we were The other problem is we're washed

573
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 2: this in a lot of bad media polling. You know,

574
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 2: if you pull for a television network or a newspaper

575
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 2: or a university, nobody hires and fires you because you're

576
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 2: right or wrong. It's just a marketing tool for the network,

577
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: or for the or for the university. So as a result,

578
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 2: those polls tend to be pretty crappy. And the private

579
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 2: campaign polls on both sides, the Democrats or Republican campaigns

580
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: paid for, they cost a lot more. They're done with

581
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: a lot more care and by people with a lot

582
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: more experience than those states. Uh, and those polls are

583
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,479
Speaker 2: pretty accurate, you know. I looked back at last time,

584
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 2: the New York Times said that Joe Biden was gonna

585
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 2: win Wisconsin by eleven. My partner Wes Anderson, had a

586
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: poll that had Joe Biden winning it by one. Well,

587
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 2: you know what he wanted by one, you know, so

588
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 2: it's it and then we're taking at the same time.

589
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 2: It's just somebody had had more experience than the other person.

590
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,479
Speaker 2: So I think the public's kind of south on polls

591
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 2: because they uh that they see so many bad quality

592
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 2: polls in the news media that don't turn out to

593
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: be We're close to the to the truth. And I

594
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 2: think that that, you know, pole is still a very

595
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 2: valuable tool. It is getting harder, but but we still

596
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 2: gleamed a lot of important information.

597
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: I guess before we go, I guess, how have you

598
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: seen Paul You know, you worked in politics for you know,

599
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: quite some time. He worked on a lot of different races,

600
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: a lot of different types of races. I guess, what

601
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 1: are the biggest ways you've seen the game chance and seeing,

602
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: you know, campaigning change.

603
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 2: Well, I think the degradation of trust in legacy media

604
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 2: is one big thing.

605
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 1: You know.

606
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 2: We were I was talking with someone yesterday on the

607
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 2: Democrat side and they we used to go to all

608
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 2: the editorial boards and campaigns, right, it was just a

609
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 2: matter of course that you would take your candidate editorial boards.

610
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: I mean, most Republicans wouldn't get caught dead in the

611
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: editorial board now because it's a rig game. Uh. They've

612
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 2: got a camera running. They're trying to ask gotcha questions

613
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 2: and post things that will get clicks to their newspaper.

614
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,719
Speaker 2: And you know, back in the old days, the editorial

615
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 2: board was entirely off the record. There were no reporters

616
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 2: in there. The publisher of the paper and their editorial

617
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 2: board members were just trying to understand the way each

618
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 2: candidate thought. And it was a pretty open and sometimes

619
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 2: colorful exchange of ideas. That's just gone, uh, and that's

620
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 2: probably for the worst. And the notion of reaching people

621
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 2: through interviews and what we call earned media. You know,

622
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 2: which which you been so good at. You know, that's

623
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 2: that's getting very very much a one side of a

624
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: street thing. You know. Republicans go to conservative news outlets

625
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 2: that reach the voters who might vote for Republicans, and

626
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 2: Democrats go to the don't lift left leading news outlets

627
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 2: that'll reach their voters, and and so the can don't

628
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 2: end up talking to the same people. And so that

629
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 2: on a day to day basis is very different. And

630
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 2: campaigns also can by pass them, you know. I mean

631
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 2: we used to live and die on can we get

632
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 2: three news cameras at one of our events. Well, now

633
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 2: we just take our own camp and cut package together

634
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: and put it up on social media and and let

635
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 2: let the public see it. So, uh, the way we

636
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 2: communicate on a day to day basis, and campaigns and

637
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 2: and and the filters we have to tolerate have really changed.

638
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: And you know, I think Trump's use of podcasters it's

639
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 1: it's been interesting and uh, you know, to kind of

640
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: reaching especially those like the young men, like maybe those

641
00:33:56,400 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: xboxers you're talking you know, uh, just take a differentmographic

642
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: of voters. I guess very last question, I'll let you

643
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: go ex Center. You're busy guy, if you're you know what,

644
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: you are advising Republicans. But what if Republicans need to do,

645
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: What does Trump need to do to close this thing

646
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 1: out and get them over the line on November fifth? Like,

647
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 1: what do these next few weeks look like? What needs

648
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: to get done?

649
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Speaker 2: I think Donald Trump has to do the thing that's

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00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 2: hardest for Donald Trump to do, and that is to

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00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 2: make this election not about himself, if he makes it

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00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 2: about how the voters feel about their own status, which

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00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 2: when he's at his best, he is great at doing that.

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00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 2: That's how he won in twenty sixteen. Is he spent

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00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 2: the last part of the election moving the shift of

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00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: the race onto the voters and what their interests were

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00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 2: and who stood in the way of the voters achieving

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00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 2: the things they wanted to do. I think that's the

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00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 2: task if he's able to make this race about the voters.

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Speaker 2: You know, because kayble Aras is not out campaigning, she's

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Speaker 2: not out hit you know, she's not hitting the trail

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00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 2: to near the extent the former president Trump is, and

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Speaker 2: Tim Wallas is knocked out like Jade Vancis. They they're

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Speaker 2: just not doing that level of voter contact. They're not

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Speaker 2: in the public gods and advertising. I think that they have.

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Speaker 2: The Trump Vance campaign has a real chance, but they

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00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 2: have to shift it off personality and make it about

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00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 2: where voters are. Is the economy better or worse than

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00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 2: it was four years ago? Is the border better or

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00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 2: worse than it was four years ago? Is the world

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00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 2: safer or down more dangerous than it was four years ago.

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00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 2: That's the task I think for the Trump Vance campaign,

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00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 2: and I think if they do do that, they have

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Speaker 2: a great chance to win.

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Speaker 1: And I hope they do because the country's going to help.

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Speaker 1: So it's the world. Brad Todd, co founder on Message,

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Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. Thanks so much for making the time.

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Speaker 1: This is really interesting. I think we all learned a

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Speaker 1: lot to really appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: Thanks a lot.

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Speaker 1: There was Brad Todd. He's a founding partner of On

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Speaker 1: Message media firm. Appreciate him for taking the time to

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Speaker 1: join the show. Appreciate you guys at home for listening

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Speaker 1: every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week.

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Speaker 1: I want to think John Cassio and my producer for

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Speaker 1: putting the show together. Until next time,