1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 3 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. 4 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 2: Tracy, I think we as a podcast, I think we 5 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 2: have to do more on Latin America, letam economics, the 6 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 2: business situation. It's just like a sort of part of 7 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 2: the world that I don't think we've covered enough. 8 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 3: No, I have to admit this is a total or 9 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 3: almost total geographic and economic blind spot for me. With 10 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 3: the exception of Guatemala, I just haven't spent that much 11 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 3: time in Latin America. I haven't read that much about it. 12 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 3: I think the story there is becoming increasingly interesting, and 13 00:00:56,480 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 3: I think if you look at something like Mexico, for instance, 14 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 3: there's all this enthusiasm about the theme of near shoring, 15 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 3: the idea that American companies are going to build all 16 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 3: these big factories over there. It's going to be a 17 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 3: big beneficiary of trade tensions with China. But at the 18 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:20,960 Speaker 3: same time, there's this ongoing political backdrop which is, as 19 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 3: far as I understand it, about to heat up in 20 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 3: the shape of the Mexican presidential elections on June second. 21 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 2: Yes, that's right. There is a Mexican presidential election coming 22 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,839 Speaker 2: up on June second, which is like a perfect news 23 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,320 Speaker 2: hook for us to sort of set the stakes, understand 24 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 2: what this is all about, and sort of use that 25 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 2: as an entry way to expand our coverage. It is 26 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 2: sort of crazy just in general in the media, and 27 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: so like I'm not trying to excuse us by implicating 28 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 2: the entire media, it does feel like you're in the US. 29 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 2: There's much attention paid to Europe and the Middle East, obviously, 30 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 2: and various things going on in East Asia, and yet 31 00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 2: the sort of dearth of coverage I would say countries 32 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 2: which probably are much more economically and politically intertwined with 33 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 2: US than the countries that get most of the sort 34 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 2: of foreign coverage. 35 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, it is actually kind of weird, isn't it now 36 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 3: that I think about it. What's that expression familiarity breeds contempt? 37 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: Contempt? Yeah, maybe not. 38 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 3: Contempt, I guess ignorance. Ignorance. You're right, we spend so 39 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 3: much time talking about things happening in the Middle East, 40 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 3: oil production in the rest of the world, but actually 41 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 3: not a lot of that attention trained on Latin America. So, okay, 42 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 3: here is our first offering to course correct and actually 43 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 3: learn something about specifically Mexico, but you know, will broaden 44 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 3: our horizons later and expand. 45 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 2: We are going to be the change that we want 46 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 2: to see in the world. But you know, to this point, 47 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 2: a really interesting fact that probably people don't really realize. 48 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 2: Brand Censor had some great observations about this. Mexico set 49 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 2: to displace China is the biggest source of imports into 50 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 2: the US market. We know there is a lot of 51 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 2: investment happening. Tesla is building a factory in Mexico. We 52 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 2: know that some of the Chinese automakers that are already 53 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 2: impaired by terrorists and trade barriers, they're investing in Mexico 54 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 2: maybe as a way of getting a conduit to the 55 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,399 Speaker 2: US market. So there's more and more investment happening. At 56 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,119 Speaker 2: the same time, as we know there are very significant 57 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 2: issues with national security, violence, the power of the cartels 58 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 2: across the country. All of this setting up in terms 59 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 2: of like what are the stakes of this upcoming election. 60 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just going to re emphasize that I am 61 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 3: not entirely up to speed on the situation. I meant 62 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 3: to come in this morning and sort of speed read 63 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 3: my way through what's happening in Mexican politics. But then 64 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 3: I got really distracted because I read that one of 65 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 3: the things that's happening is this huge expansion of the 66 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 3: amount of money that the government is spending on the military, 67 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 3: and the defense programs are basically growing very very quickly, 68 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 3: and one of those is something called the National Security 69 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 3: Infrastructure Project. And in addition to building military bases and 70 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 3: hospitals and things like that, part of the project is 71 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 3: to build an equine reproduction center. So I saw that 72 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 3: and I went I spent an hour going down a 73 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 3: rabbit hole of why the Mexican Army seems to love horses, 74 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 3: And there's actually like a lot written about this, So anyway, 75 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 3: instead of reading about politics, I was reading about the 76 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 3: Mexican Army's love of show jumping and things like that. So, okay, 77 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 3: let's do it. Let's actually talk about important things. 78 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 2: Listeners, getting a glimpse into the odd Lots episode of 79 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 2: preparation process. Right there, we do have the perfect guest. 80 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 2: We're going to be speaking with. Andrea and Navarro, senior 81 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 2: reporter covering business for US here at Bloomberg, based in 82 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 2: Mexico City. She has a big story out now on 83 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 2: the Onloa administration, the legacy of it, the upcoming election 84 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 2: and what it all means and the balancing of these 85 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 2: different countervailing forces. So, Andrea, thank you so much for 86 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 2: coming on odd loads, and we really appreciate you taking 87 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 2: on the task of getting me and Tracy up to 88 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 2: speed on what really is an important trading partner, neighbor 89 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 2: and big economic. 90 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: Story for us. 91 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 4: Hi, Joe and Tracy, thank you for having me. 92 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 2: Let's just start. There is this Mexican presidential election upcoming 93 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 2: on June second. Who are the candidates? What is this 94 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:26,799 Speaker 2: election about? 95 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 4: So? Yeah, in Mexico, we have elections presidential elections coming 96 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 4: up in June second, and the candidates are Claudia Shanbaum. 97 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 4: She was the former major of Mexico City and she 98 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,679 Speaker 4: was anointed by Lopez A Rador to be the candidate 99 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 4: of his party called Morena. It's very clear right now 100 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 4: that she's a likely winner. She has a fifty percent 101 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 4: preference in the polls in the most recent polls. The 102 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:55,279 Speaker 4: distance second is held by a woman named Sochil Jalbis. 103 00:05:55,720 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 4: Sochil is from a coalition of opposition parties who were 104 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 4: severely weakened over the past five or six years during 105 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,359 Speaker 4: the Lopaso rather presidency. They came together to choose an 106 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 4: opposition candidate that would have the best chances at really 107 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 4: competing against Shanebaum. But right now, the preference that she's 108 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 4: showing is around thirty three percent, which is not great, 109 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 4: So barring something unexpected and very big, it's very likely 110 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,479 Speaker 4: that Claudia will win. There is a third candidate. His 111 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 4: name is Jorge Albaresminez and the party he's coming from 112 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 4: is Mohi Mintos. The last thing I read is that 113 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 4: he's holding about a nine percent preference. It's not likely 114 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 4: that he's going to have a big showing, so it's 115 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 4: most likely going to be between Souchil and Claudia. But 116 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 4: as I said, it's basically given that Claudia will win. 117 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 3: Joe, I'm just going to say everyone should pray for 118 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 3: our Spanish pronunciation in this episode, because Andrea just did 119 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 3: a phenomenal amount of like switching there and getting like 120 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 3: the accent exactly right. Okay, So Lopez Obrador is aka 121 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 3: AMLO has been in power for multiple years and is 122 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 3: sort of expected to hand off to his successor. Again, 123 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 3: I don't know much about Mexico, but one thing I 124 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 3: know is that when emerging market analysts start talking about 125 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 3: weakening institutions and constitutional reforms, that's probably not a good thing. 126 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 3: And some of those notes have been hitting my inbox 127 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 3: relatively recently. What are they talking about here? 128 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm Loo, as he is known, did have a 129 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 4: string of controversial decrees or reforms that sort of scared 130 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 4: the market throughout his presidency. I would say that the 131 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 4: very first was right as he came into power in 132 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 4: late twenty eighteen, he canceled an airport project that was 133 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 4: going to be built near Mexico City to replace our 134 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 4: old grumbling airport that's called Vinita. Juarrees. That project was 135 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 4: planned by his predecessor, and and it was going to 136 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 4: be a very big airport. It was going to be beautiful, 137 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 4: It was going to be state of the art and 138 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 4: handle I think it was like sixty eight million passengers 139 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 4: a year, which is much more than we can handle now. 140 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 4: But he amlan. When he was campaigning, he sort of 141 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 4: painted the airport as a thing of the elites and 142 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 4: that the average Mexican would never use it, and so 143 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 4: why was so much money going into a project that 144 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 4: was not going to benefit the average Mexican. So he 145 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 4: scrapped it, and that really scared investors because a lot 146 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,679 Speaker 4: of businessmen in Mexico were involved in some way or 147 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 4: the other in the airport project. We had Mexico's richest person, 148 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 4: Carlo Slim. His company was going to build the terminal 149 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 4: and I think one or two of the runways, and 150 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 4: so coming in with such a strong move freaked everybody out, 151 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,079 Speaker 4: and he just scrapped it. It ended up being more 152 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 4: costly than actually finishing the project because he had to 153 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 4: pay off bond holders. He had to pay off so 154 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 4: much debt and so much investment that had already gone 155 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 4: into the project. But he just went and did it 156 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 4: and he didn't really care. And after that, there were 157 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 4: a couple of things that sort of did scare investors. 158 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 4: One of them was changing the rules into how airport 159 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 4: operators can charge different fees. We have three big companies 160 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 4: here that operate most of the airports in Mexico, and 161 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 4: it was just one of those moves where nobody saw 162 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 4: it coming. And when he did it, I think it 163 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 4: was the largest sell of those shares that the companies 164 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 4: had ever seen. Shares tanked around like forty seven percent 165 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 4: before pairing back some losses. He's well known for making 166 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 4: these brash announcements and movements that he sort of then 167 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 4: pairs back, and then people end up feeling that everything 168 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 4: is going to be all right. I think that the 169 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 4: best way to say it is that he has kept 170 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:53,559 Speaker 4: everybody on his toes. But in the end, if you 171 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 4: look at the macroeconomics in Mexico, it's not all that bad. 172 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 4: The best is that its strongest that it's been in 173 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 4: life twenty years. I think inflation is relatively under control. 174 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,319 Speaker 4: We have tons of money flowing in. So it's really 175 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 4: been surprising, to say the least, to see how he 176 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 4: has handled both the businessman and the macro economy. 177 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 2: Prior to the twenty twenty election, there was a lot 178 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 2: of fear at the time that Trump it's gonna build 179 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 2: the wall and it's gonna be terrible for the Mexican peso. 180 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 2: Thinking back to that time, the peso is actually through 181 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 2: twenty twenty almost seen as like the purest market proxy 182 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:46,840 Speaker 2: for market expectations of that outcome. 183 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: Didn't you have a. 184 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 3: Trade like that involved the peso? 185 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 2: I seem to remember, I'm not going to rag about 186 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 2: my MiCT trade. 187 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 3: Well, I just gave. 188 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 2: You, okay, I did tweet that you sort of took 189 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 2: seriously that the ultimate effect of is going to be 190 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 2: this sort of reinvigoration of sort of the North American 191 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 2: trade at the expense of East Asian trading partners. You 192 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,839 Speaker 2: might want to go long Mexican pay so against the 193 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 2: Korean wand that has been a really big winner in 194 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:20,679 Speaker 2: my imaginary FX hedge fund. Yes, thank you, Tracy. I 195 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 2: did correctly predict that the Mexican pace that would be 196 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 2: a winner of the sort of new trading environment, and 197 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 2: that has been born out. But we have seen this 198 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 2: idea of like and it really accelerated after COVID, this 199 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 2: idea of like near shoring or friend shoring, this real 200 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 2: turnarway against particularly China, and we do see this sort 201 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 2: of flood of investment in parts in Mexico. We know 202 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 2: that Tesla is opening up a new factory, as I 203 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 2: mentioned in the beginning of Mexico is set to displace 204 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 2: China's the biggest source of imports into the US market. 205 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 2: So for whatever reason, and you know you mentioned AMLO's 206 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 2: the anxiety that he gave to the business community there 207 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 2: are a lot of positive Mexican investment stories happening right now. 208 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 4: I think that Tesla was a big example when it 209 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 4: was announced. The problem with that is that they haven't 210 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 4: really started construction on the plant, and there's some doubts 211 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 4: on whether that's going to happen at all, or if 212 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 4: it's going to happen in five to ten years. But 213 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 4: we do know that several suppliers to Tesla already came 214 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 4: up and set up shop in the northern parts of 215 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 4: the country, and we do have a very big auto industry. 216 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 4: Most of the big car companies have big plants here 217 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 4: and some of them have expanded them over the past 218 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:39,719 Speaker 4: few years, so there is a lot of movement. It's 219 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 4: important to also mention some of the roadblocks that near 220 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:47,439 Speaker 4: shoring has and why some people are doubting whether Mexico 221 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,079 Speaker 4: is going to be able to take full advantage of 222 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 4: the larger geoeconomical situation that it could potentially benefit from. 223 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 4: But there are security concerns. There's water scars City in 224 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 4: the northern part of the country, in re Bolon in Sonora. 225 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:05,719 Speaker 1: There are a lot of. 226 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 4: States that have been dealing with severe droughts over the 227 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 4: past few years. There's a problem with electricity. There's a 228 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 4: big problem with supplying and distributing electricity. So there are 229 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 4: a lot of industrial parks that have to set up 230 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 4: their own generators, their own grids. They have to go 231 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 4: in and connect their plants to the larger grids so 232 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 4: that they can get some electricity. It's not cheap, it's 233 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,599 Speaker 4: not easy to do. All of those hurdles do represent 234 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 4: something expensive, and it's very complicated for some companies to 235 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 4: take on all of these problems by themselves. So they 236 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 4: have been asking the government for more help with the security, 237 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 4: with electricity, with water, because if they don't resolve all 238 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 4: of those things, it's going to be very difficult for 239 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,839 Speaker 4: companies to just take full advantage of being so close 240 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 4: to the United States. 241 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 3: I was going to ask what's AMLO's approach or feeling 242 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 3: towards the near shoring trend, because when I think of 243 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 3: his policies, you know, sort of leftist nationalist. He used to, 244 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 3: from what I remember, talk about the moral economy and 245 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 3: distributing gains and things like that. So I wonder if 246 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,719 Speaker 3: there's a tension there between that agenda and sort of 247 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 3: inviting external capital into the country. But then of course 248 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 3: you know that capital leads to jobs, it leads to 249 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 3: GDP growth. And there's also a theme here where he 250 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 3: has been bulking up the military. He's been beefing up 251 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 3: security and trying to crack down on crime, at least publicly. 252 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that the last part that you said 253 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 4: about what he says publicly versus what he actually does 254 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 4: is a big, very big difference. I think that he 255 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 4: doesn't really he hasn't really devoted that much time to 256 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 4: talking about near shoring. He knows that it's a thing, 257 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 4: he knows that it could be beneficial for the country. 258 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 4: But what he's really pushing for is for development in 259 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 4: the southern part of the country. So if you look 260 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 4: at a map of Mexico, you look at the northern states, 261 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 4: and those are the ones that typically have gotten a 262 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 4: lot of industrial and investment just because of the closeness 263 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 4: to the United States, and traditionally it's just the way 264 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 4: it has been. And if you look at the south 265 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 4: and especially the southeast, so where you have the Yucatan Peninsula, 266 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 4: campeche Waaga, some of these poorer states, they have traditionally 267 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 4: not received so much investment as their northern counterparts. So 268 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 4: what he has really pushed for has been for business 269 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 4: to just set up shop down south, and it hasn't 270 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 4: really been an easy decision for businesses because of the 271 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 4: same things. Right like, you're farther away from the US, 272 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 4: and when there's not a big environment already set up 273 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 4: for you to come in, it's expensive to just set 274 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 4: up everything. And there aren't in many hotels, there aren't 275 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 4: many roads. It's just a lack of infrastructure that has 276 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 4: held some of the businesses back. There's a train that 277 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 4: he built, well, there's two trains that he built. First 278 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 4: is a Maya train that's in the Yukata and Peninsula 279 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 4: that's supposed to be for passengers and for cargo, and 280 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 4: a part of it has already been inaugurated. The other 281 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 4: part is still under construction. But his big bed to 282 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 4: answer to the new or showing question, I think, is 283 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 4: the other train, and it's called the Transismiko. So it's 284 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 4: sort of his answer to the Panama Canal. He wants 285 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 4: us to replace the Panama Canal with this train. And 286 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 4: it's very interesting because if you look at all of 287 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 4: the problems with the Panama Canal and with the Swas Canal, 288 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 4: you could see some people or some companies potentially using 289 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 4: the transismiko to ship some of their goods across the ocean. 290 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 4: So one ending point of the Salinakuruzjahaka in the Pacific, 291 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 4: and then the other point is in the Gulf in Bakaruz. 292 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 4: So if that works out, logistically, it's not as easy 293 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 4: because it is a train, so sh would have to 294 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 4: come into one of the ports, offload all of the goods, 295 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 4: upload them to a train, have the train pass over, 296 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 4: and then reach the Nacarus where it would have to 297 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 4: be uploaded into a ship again. But if that works, 298 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 4: that could potentially be very good for the country and 299 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 4: for the economy. It's just not clear that that's what's 300 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 4: going to happen, Tracy. 301 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 2: As we continue to do more Laddam episode, we're definitely 302 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 2: doing a specific episode on Mexico's ambition to replace the 303 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 2: Panama Canal. That sounds like a great that's a great 304 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 2: that's great, that's a great episode in its own right. 305 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: Let's talk about the national security situation. You have a 306 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 2: table in your story that shows just how much homicides 307 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 2: in the country have increased over the years. The homicide 308 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 2: rate during both the Onload administration, but also the previous 309 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 2: EPN administration more than double than what it was during 310 00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 2: the Vicente Fox administration in the early two thousands. What 311 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 2: is this sort of big story here and what has 312 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 2: MLO tried to do and perhaps tried to do unsuccessfully 313 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 2: to improve the national security situation. 314 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, so if you look at that chart and the 315 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 4: numbers from starting in a two thousand, what happened very 316 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 4: clearly was around two thousand and eight when Felipe Kaledon 317 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 4: declared a war on drugs, on cartels and he just 318 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 4: deployed the military into the country and sent him out 319 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 4: to fight the big cartels. And back then we did 320 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:37,160 Speaker 4: see this splash of violence just across the country, across newspapers. 321 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 4: It was horrible. It wasn't what the country was used to. 322 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 4: But then it sort of became the way of life. 323 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:44,679 Speaker 4: You know, It's very sad to say it, but I 324 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 4: think that Mexicans lost some sensitivity to seeing so many 325 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 4: murders and so many homicides just splashed across the country. 326 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 4: And it did get a little bit worse during the 327 00:18:55,840 --> 00:19:00,040 Speaker 4: Endrique Pane the years, just because the dynamics of cartels 328 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 4: and how they work. You know, you kill off the 329 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 4: leader and ten new leaders come up. And so right 330 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 4: now what we're seeing is that the three or four 331 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 4: cartels that used to run the criminal organizations, they have 332 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 4: been spread out and they have sort of multiplied into 333 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 4: these cells and these smaller groups that are harder to fight, 334 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 4: harder to control, and that have taken on several pockets 335 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 4: of the country. So instead of having the big Sinaloa, 336 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:33,880 Speaker 4: Tijuana or Golf cartels, now you have so many different groups. 337 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 4: I think that they were spread out more across the 338 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:41,479 Speaker 4: northern States back then, but now you see headlines where 339 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 4: they're taking on several towns that are not that far 340 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 4: from Mexico City, which is not something that we were 341 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 4: used to seeing. And homicides as a result have just 342 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 4: shot up. Now, if you ask Amlo, he's going to 343 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 4: tell you that a closer look at the numbers will 344 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 4: show a tiny slowdown in the rate. That could be true, 345 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,200 Speaker 4: but there are also many people who say that that's 346 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 4: because statistics in Mexico aren't really that trustworthy. There's a 347 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 4: big rate of impunity. There's many crimes that go on. Reporter, 348 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,439 Speaker 4: if you look at homicides, they have shut up. But 349 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,400 Speaker 4: I'm going to will tell you that they slow down 350 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 4: a little bit. There's doubts on how trustworthy the numbers are, 351 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 4: and the numbers that have come down, it's such a 352 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 4: tiny slow down that it could just be a statistical error, 353 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 4: not really a change in the trend. 354 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 3: So in the intro I mentioned the national security infrastructure projects. 355 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 3: Could you maybe talk a little bit more about, which 356 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,679 Speaker 3: include the equine reproduction Center. I feel I must repeat this. 357 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 3: Could you talk a little bit more about the Defense 358 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 3: Department and its role in the economy and what we've 359 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 3: seen there recently under AMLA. 360 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,159 Speaker 4: Of course, so the Defense Ministry has always been the 361 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 4: central ministry under which most of the army or the 362 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 4: military runs, but I would say that under this administration, 363 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 4: its profile and its power and its budget have grown 364 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 4: in a way that's been unprecedented and very surprising. And 365 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 4: what we did in the story was take a closer 366 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,879 Speaker 4: look at the budget and not only at the money 367 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 4: that was given to them, but had how the money 368 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 4: is actually being used. And so we found a program 369 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 4: in Mexico we called it at Bartida, and it's literally 370 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 4: the line in the budget that's called K zero nineteen. 371 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 4: It's Casa O and that Bartida is specifically for the 372 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 4: use of the military for its own infrastructure. Because a 373 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 4: military in Mexico has been given so many infrastructure projects 374 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 4: over the AMUL years, it's easy to think that that's 375 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 4: the money that they're using to build the airports or 376 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 4: the trains that the president has handed them over, but 377 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 4: it's not. The money in this Partida specifically is for 378 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 4: their own use. So it was very hard to find 379 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,439 Speaker 4: what contracts they were making with this money. But we 380 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 4: did find, as you say, a lot of spending on horses, 381 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 4: a lot of spending on gyms, on upgrades to their 382 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,360 Speaker 4: headquarters here in Mexico City, and so it does paint 383 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 4: a picture of an army that's taking some of the 384 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 4: money that they're being given for its own use. And 385 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 4: another thing that's important to mention about this Partida specifically 386 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,639 Speaker 4: is that Congress did not really approve this money for 387 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 4: this use. So how it works in Mexico is that 388 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 4: the president or the executive chose the Congress a proposal 389 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 4: for the budget. Congress then analyzes it, and the lower 390 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 4: chamber has to approve it the spending part. And what 391 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 4: we realized is that over the past few years, the 392 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 4: military has used this tool that's called modifications to just 393 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 4: change money from different partidas, to move it around, and 394 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 4: to use it at their discretion. So for this specific Bardida, 395 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,959 Speaker 4: the money that was spent eventually there had not been 396 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 4: approved by Congress. They just approved a tiny portion, but 397 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 4: then they spent whatever they wanted on whatever they wanted. 398 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 4: And it's very hard for Congress to keep track of this, 399 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 4: and it's very hard for anybody to just find the 400 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 4: contracts and see where the average taxpayer's money is going to, 401 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 4: which is very it's very sad. 402 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 2: It's interesting. We recently recorded an episode on some of 403 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,159 Speaker 2: the structural flaws of the Egyptian economy, and part of 404 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 2: the story there was just like how many aspects of 405 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 2: the economy are implicitly or directly under the control of 406 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 2: the Egyptian military and some of the problems there. It 407 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,159 Speaker 2: feels very redolent of that. But just go into this 408 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 2: a little bit further, because it's still sort of counterintuitive. 409 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 2: I think you say in your story that defense during 410 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 2: the Omlo years is of one hundred and twenty eight percent, 411 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 2: which is extraordinary. But talk more about this disconnect between 412 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,640 Speaker 2: the surge in defense spending and the lack of progress 413 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 2: and someoney you arguably perhaps backsliding in terms of security 414 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 2: and violence. 415 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 4: Defense spending has grown one hundred and twenty eight percent 416 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:25,959 Speaker 4: over the first five years in amdo's administration. Over the 417 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,439 Speaker 4: past year, just a single year, it grew sixty three percent, 418 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:34,160 Speaker 4: which is not nothing. And the problem here is that 419 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 4: a closer look at the budget will show you how 420 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 4: the money is being spent on these big ticket infrastructure projects, 421 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 4: on airports, on a state run airline that nobody thought 422 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 4: we needed, on the trains, and the amount of money 423 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 4: that's being actually directed to training soldiers, to deploying them, 424 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 4: to buying them weapons and equipment has stayed the same 425 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 4: ever since the Galton years. That program hasn't really grown 426 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 4: and that tells you a lot, because when you talk 427 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,719 Speaker 4: to people on the ground, they will tell you that 428 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 4: the National Guard members don't have gas money to do 429 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 4: the patrolling that they have to do in highways. So 430 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,640 Speaker 4: we did talk to a couple of people who told 431 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 4: us that they called the National Guard after thefts, after 432 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 4: highway thefts that they had run into and the National 433 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 4: Guard couldn't get there because they had no gas money. 434 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 4: So there's this huge disconnect into how it could be 435 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,959 Speaker 4: that they're getting the largest budget they have had in 436 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 4: years and they're just not doing what they should be 437 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:44,359 Speaker 4: doing with it. You know, some of the planes that 438 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 4: the military has are now being used for the state 439 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 4: owned airline that's called Mahigana, And that's we know, and 440 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 4: I'm sure that you guys are very aware of how 441 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 4: hard it is to take on new planes, to buy 442 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 4: new planes from Boeing, or to get lessers to to 443 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 4: give you a plane. It's not the easiest thing in 444 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,360 Speaker 4: the world. But the president thought it would be, so 445 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 4: he just launched in an airline. He said it was 446 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 4: going to have ten planes, and then, after realizing that 447 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,360 Speaker 4: it was going to be more difficult than he had 448 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,639 Speaker 4: thought initially, he just got some planes from the military 449 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 4: to run the airline. So what we see now is 450 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 4: that that has been at the expense of security in Mexico. 451 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,120 Speaker 4: As I'd said before, we have had several instances of 452 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,880 Speaker 4: cartels just running parts of the country and we're hearing 453 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:36,160 Speaker 4: things as they're charging people for Wi Fi connections, they're 454 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 4: charging people for the right to have a party. They're 455 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 4: throwing mini bombs from drones and just killing scores of people. 456 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,479 Speaker 4: So there are parts of the country that are just 457 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 4: becoming no man's land and they're being abandoned and cartels 458 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 4: are just running the show. 459 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 3: We mentioned the presidential election is coming up in June. 460 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 3: The official campaign kicked off. I believe at the beginning 461 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 3: of March, how much continuity could we expect between Amlow 462 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 3: and his anointed successor, assuming that the party, you know, 463 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 3: stays in power. And then I guess, just to add 464 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 3: on to that, how much political presence will Amlo have 465 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 3: even after the term limit comes into effect and he 466 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 3: is no longer president. Because my understanding is again going 467 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 3: back to that weakening institutional and controversial constitutional reform point 468 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 3: that you see from some of the em analysts right now, 469 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:38,199 Speaker 3: is that he has been instituting some changes to the 470 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 3: judiciary and things like that that could possibly pave the 471 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 3: way for him to still, you know, have some influence 472 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 3: in the political sphere. 473 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 4: I think that that's a million dollar question, Tracy. I 474 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,919 Speaker 4: think that nobody is really wondering what's going to happen 475 00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 4: on June. Second, everybody's pretty sure that Claudia is going 476 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 4: to win. I think that the true question is whether 477 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 4: or not Amlo is going to let her actually be 478 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,840 Speaker 4: the president, and we're not going to know that for 479 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 4: a while, right, So he has maintained that he's going 480 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,879 Speaker 4: to leave. He has a ranch in his hometown, and 481 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 4: that he's going to just go and retire and live 482 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 4: a quiet life. But nobody really believes that. So that's 483 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 4: what we're wondering as well. And I think that one 484 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 4: of the bigger questions is what she's going to do 485 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 4: exactly on security. If you look at what she did 486 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 4: in Mexico City, she had a very strong police force, 487 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,400 Speaker 4: which is against what AMLO did at the national level, 488 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 4: and her security ministry here was led by a police person, 489 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 4: a policeman that's now going to be in the Senate probably. 490 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 4: So if she follows through with the strategy that she 491 00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 4: had here, it's going to be a clear divergent from 492 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 4: AMLO's strategy, which was to prop up the military. So 493 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 4: it's going to be very interesting to see whether she 494 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,240 Speaker 4: follows her own lines or whether she has to fall 495 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 4: in line without whatever AMLA tells her to do. 496 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 2: Going back to the expansion of the military budget and 497 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 2: the lack of improvement on the security front, so you 498 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,080 Speaker 2: mentioned that a lot of this money is going to 499 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 2: the building of airports, and you talked about the rail lines, 500 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 2: and one of them is in existence in some of 501 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:44,240 Speaker 2: this infrastructure setting aside the lack of progress on security, 502 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 2: is the infrastructure spending bearing fruit, because obviously that's important too, 503 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 2: and that's critical if for ongoing GDP expansion, are these 504 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 2: infrastructure projects delivering in some manner in terms of making 505 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 2: parts of the country more hospitable or more business friendly 506 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 2: or better for the public than they were before. 507 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 4: That's a good question. I would say not yet. It 508 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 4: takes a while for airports to just like ramp up, 509 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 4: and it takes a while for people to realize that 510 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 4: instead of the airport here in Mexico City that you've 511 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 4: always used, there's another one that's an hour away, but 512 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 4: it's probably less crowded, you know. So that airport that's 513 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 4: called Santa Lucia or Phelippe Acheles, it's I've never been there, 514 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 4: but people are telling me that there is usually one 515 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,080 Speaker 4: or two flights a day, and some of those flights 516 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:39,120 Speaker 4: aren't all that full. So it's not clear yet that 517 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 4: it's going to be a big success, but there is potential. 518 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 4: And the same for the one in Tulum, for example, 519 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 4: it's only an hour away from the one in Cancun, 520 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 4: so it's not clear that it was the biggest necessity ever, 521 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 4: but it could potentially in the future alleviate some of 522 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,320 Speaker 4: the traffic that Gangcun is getting because it a lot 523 00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:01,240 Speaker 4: of international flyers use Gancun Airport instead coming to Mexico City. 524 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 4: As for the trains, as we said, like one of them, 525 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 4: if it has potential to replace the Panama Canal or 526 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:09,479 Speaker 4: at least compete with it, it's going to be a 527 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 4: huge success, but that's not clear yet. And for the 528 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 4: trend Maaya, the one in the Yukataan Peninsula, it's been 529 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 4: a very controversial train because the part that's already running 530 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 4: is pretty easy. It was pretty easy to do. They 531 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 4: just had to expand some highways and it wasn't all 532 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 4: that technically complicated to build. I do think that that 533 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 4: has potential to connect some of the towns that didn't 534 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 4: have any airports or any bus terminals around, so that 535 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 4: could have some success. But the other part that's still 536 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 4: under construction, it's going to be very hard for them 537 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 4: to manage that successfully. The terrain on which it's built, 538 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,400 Speaker 4: it's these open ended caves. I don't know if you 539 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,040 Speaker 4: know what I'm going to talk about, but it's there 540 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 4: are called say not this, and there are these lines 541 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 4: so I've heard of it are very fragile, and so 542 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 4: when you try to put like a cargo train or 543 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:03,920 Speaker 4: a passenger train on top of them, there's a very 544 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 4: real risk of collapse. And I did a story on 545 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 4: this a couple of years ago. It's very strange and 546 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 4: it's very hard to build a train on these grounds. 547 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 4: But that's just what they're doing. So we're going to 548 00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 4: have to see whether it works, whether they're constantly having 549 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 4: to stop them because of collapses of the caves or accidents. 550 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 4: We hope not that's not the case, but it could 551 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,400 Speaker 4: happen potentially. All of the projects that he has chosen 552 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 4: have been in theory good, but nobody really thought that 553 00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 4: it was something that we absolutely needed. There are things 554 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,640 Speaker 4: that there are smaller things, smaller highways that you could build, 555 00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 4: smaller water systems, smaller electricity projects that you could do 556 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 4: to improve the lives of people that aren't in the 557 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:53,640 Speaker 4: big CDs. But those projects aren't newsworthy, you know, like 558 00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,400 Speaker 4: that's I think that that's what he figured these big 559 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 4: ticket projects are he views them as his legacy, and 560 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 4: in the end he's going to leave two railroads, about 561 00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 4: a dozen airports, and in an airline. So that's what 562 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:09,120 Speaker 4: he chose to focus on. 563 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 3: This is actually exactly what I wanted to ask you about, 564 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 3: because I'm struggling to wrap my head around one thing, 565 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:21,840 Speaker 3: which is there are these big ticket headline infrastructure projects. 566 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 3: There is the expanding military budget. But I think overall 567 00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:32,080 Speaker 3: there's also a discussion of or a perception that Amlo 568 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,600 Speaker 3: is sort of he's into austerity and the sort of 569 00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:41,240 Speaker 3: Republican austerity ideals. So how do we square those two things? 570 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 3: So these big ticket items more money for the military, 571 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:50,840 Speaker 3: versus the perception or at least the stated ambition to 572 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 3: be more disciplined when it comes to spending. 573 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 4: He has been very disciplined in spending and that's something 574 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,640 Speaker 4: that we can give him. He has pulled that off. 575 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 4: But as you say, when you try to square it, 576 00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,759 Speaker 4: the thing or the ministries that have suffered are smaller programs, 577 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 4: you know, health education, domestic violence programs, nature programs, or 578 00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 4: if not, they have just simply disappeared because he hasn't 579 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 4: taken on large debt for the country. But he has 580 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:30,280 Speaker 4: had to just pull money from other projects or ministries 581 00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,320 Speaker 4: that he doesn't view as essential in order to fund 582 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,319 Speaker 4: some of these big ticket items that he does view 583 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:38,240 Speaker 4: as his legacy. 584 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:41,760 Speaker 2: He's very popular. I mean, so we can talk about, okay, 585 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 2: the national security situation has not improved, arguably gotten worse 586 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:50,680 Speaker 2: during his term in office. Many of these infrastructure projects 587 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,880 Speaker 2: maybe will have potential, but have yet to bear fruit 588 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 2: for most people, certain levels of austerity cutting these programs, 589 00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,280 Speaker 2: et cetera. And yet, according to a poll I'm looking 590 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,200 Speaker 2: at right now, he has approval rating at sixty percent. 591 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 2: And as you mentioned, still the likelihood is that his 592 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:12,319 Speaker 2: successor will win the election. What is the source of 593 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:13,799 Speaker 2: his persistent popularity. 594 00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:19,200 Speaker 4: It's him. It's very strange, but it's just him. He 595 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:23,600 Speaker 4: has a magnetic poll and he has a very loyal 596 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:28,040 Speaker 4: fan base. And he has just been involved in Mexican 597 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 4: politics for so long that people do view him as 598 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 4: a savior of some sorts. He has, to his credit, 599 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 4: done things to improve the lives of a certain demographic 600 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,040 Speaker 4: in Mexico's He has spent a lot of money on 601 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:47,839 Speaker 4: direct welfare programs where people old people or students they 602 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 4: get scholarships. He increased minimum wage for the country quite 603 00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:55,879 Speaker 4: a bit during his administration, so there is a demographic 604 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,879 Speaker 4: that things that he's done well for the poor, he's 605 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 4: done well for the macro economy, and security is a 606 00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 4: pending matter that a lot of people are worried about. 607 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,799 Speaker 4: But his approval rating, it's stayed very high. And yeah, 608 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,880 Speaker 4: as you say, right now, it's close to sixty. He 609 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,759 Speaker 4: only has a few months left in office, and it's 610 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 4: probably going to be that way when he goes. But 611 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:20,879 Speaker 4: at the same time, you have to take a look 612 00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 4: at the other numbers. You know, forty six percent of 613 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 4: the people perceive that security has gotten the worse during 614 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,880 Speaker 4: his term, and seventy four percent perceive a very corrupt government, 615 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,759 Speaker 4: and that just doesn't really square with his approval rating. 616 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,839 Speaker 4: But he Yeah, he's a very good politician. I would say, 617 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:38,560 Speaker 4: all right. 618 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 2: Well, Andrea and Navarro, fascinating reporting. Everybody should go read 619 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 2: your article on the Bloomberg Terminal or on Bloomberg dot com. 620 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,560 Speaker 2: Excellent investigative work and sort of looking at what's going 621 00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 2: on with the budget and with the national security situation. 622 00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,319 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for coming on and hopefully the 623 00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 2: first of many episodes that we do on mexic Go 624 00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,680 Speaker 2: and the region. This is a great start for it, 625 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 2: so really appreciate your taking the time. 626 00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:06,360 Speaker 4: Thank you, Thank you for having. 627 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:21,200 Speaker 2: Me, Tracy. I feel like such a stereotype of an 628 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 2: American because the things that she said that I had 629 00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:28,360 Speaker 2: some sort of personal frame of reference towards was having 630 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:33,120 Speaker 2: flown to the Kancun Airport, having taken that very congested 631 00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,200 Speaker 2: highway down to Tuloom from there, having gone swimming in 632 00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:39,600 Speaker 2: one of the not days, which you could see how 633 00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:43,040 Speaker 2: difficult that would be to build a train line above 634 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:47,839 Speaker 2: that geological structure. So the things that I knew are 635 00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:49,640 Speaker 2: like the most cliche things to know. 636 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,520 Speaker 3: I am very, very jealous that you've been to Mexico. 637 00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,399 Speaker 3: I think maybe when I was a kid, I went 638 00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:58,560 Speaker 3: to like one of the border towns because we were 639 00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,759 Speaker 3: in Texas, but I've never really spent much time there. 640 00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,640 Speaker 3: I feel like I should, especially after this episode, to 641 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:06,920 Speaker 3: get a sense of it. One thing that struck me 642 00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:10,319 Speaker 3: that I hadn't realized was the division between North and 643 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,439 Speaker 3: South economically and the idea that the North, I mean, 644 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,000 Speaker 3: this seems obvious in retrospect, but the North in its 645 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,799 Speaker 3: proximity to the US means that there has been more investment, 646 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:25,640 Speaker 3: more capital pouring into their more development versus the South, 647 00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:29,000 Speaker 3: and I hadn't realized the extent to which AMLO was 648 00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:34,160 Speaker 3: targeting the South in terms of economic programs and infrastructure 649 00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:34,839 Speaker 3: projects there. 650 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,000 Speaker 2: It sort of reminded me of like in the UK 651 00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 2: and they're always like, we're going to rebuild the Northern Powerhouse, 652 00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:43,160 Speaker 2: you know, and like to derive money away from London, 653 00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:46,600 Speaker 2: and it never never really seems to work. But you know, 654 00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,480 Speaker 2: I'm also and I mentioned this during the conversation, I'm 655 00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,360 Speaker 2: struck by like some of the parallels to the Egypt 656 00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:55,839 Speaker 2: conversation we really have of how doing things through the 657 00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 2: military feels like in many countries, the path of least 658 00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,600 Speaker 2: resistance for industrial development you have this military. And so 659 00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:04,560 Speaker 2: if you want to build highways, if you want to 660 00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,800 Speaker 2: build rail, if you want to build equine reproduction centers, 661 00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:09,880 Speaker 2: if you want to build a new airlines, that the 662 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,360 Speaker 2: military is the vehicle that becomes the easiest to do 663 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,520 Speaker 2: this from. And I'm sure there's a lot of parallels 664 00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,560 Speaker 2: to that in US history. And you think about how 665 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:21,239 Speaker 2: the Hoover damn all. Yeah, the West and the crucial 666 00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,000 Speaker 2: role that the Army Corps of Engineers, which of course 667 00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,239 Speaker 2: still exists, but the crucial role that the Army Corps 668 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:30,000 Speaker 2: of Engineers had in sort of turning the West into 669 00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,920 Speaker 2: a habitable part of the country. You know, it just 670 00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,680 Speaker 2: seems to be a pattern across history and countries. 671 00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,359 Speaker 3: It really does. And it's funny how it has come 672 00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 3: up multiple times recently, particularly in that episode that we 673 00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,439 Speaker 3: did on Egypt. I think Andrea gave a very good 674 00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:50,280 Speaker 3: answer about the sort of tension between austerity in certain 675 00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:55,640 Speaker 3: government spending programs and then expansion of the military budget 676 00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,160 Speaker 3: and the tension there. But I feel good about this conversation. 677 00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,760 Speaker 3: I feel it was a good starting point to certainly 678 00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:07,080 Speaker 3: understand Mexico and also use it to expand our knowledge 679 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:08,960 Speaker 3: of the Latin American region completely. 680 00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:10,719 Speaker 2: And now I feel like I'll have something to sort 681 00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,920 Speaker 2: of pay attention to in the June second election. You asked, like, 682 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:17,000 Speaker 2: I think, like the key question that's on many people's mind, 683 00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 2: assuming that Schinbaum the successor, does win the election. Like 684 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,920 Speaker 2: the analogy that everyone wonders is like the Medvedev years 685 00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:30,760 Speaker 2: in Russia when Medvedev was nominally the president, but everyone 686 00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,840 Speaker 2: sort of knew that Putin was still the leader of 687 00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:37,319 Speaker 2: the country, and then he came back eventually, obviously, and 688 00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:41,719 Speaker 2: so this question of like, okay, can the successor actually 689 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:45,440 Speaker 2: have her own agenda? As Andrea mentioned that she took 690 00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,920 Speaker 2: a different approach in Mexico City and relying on the 691 00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:51,279 Speaker 2: police for security instead of the military, and so it'll 692 00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:55,719 Speaker 2: be interesting to see whether, assuming she wins, does she 693 00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:59,040 Speaker 2: have that discretion to take a different national security approach 694 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:00,640 Speaker 2: than her predecessor. 695 00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:04,080 Speaker 3: Omlo Absolutely, although I gotta say retiring to a ranch 696 00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:08,520 Speaker 3: sounds kind of nice. There have been multiple presidents in 697 00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,400 Speaker 3: various countries that always seem to be retiring to ranches. 698 00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:12,040 Speaker 2: I George W. 699 00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:16,440 Speaker 3: Buck Yeah, exactly, Crawford, I think that's what I would do. Okay, 700 00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:17,319 Speaker 3: shall we leave it there? 701 00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:18,120 Speaker 2: Let's leave it there. 702 00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,120 Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the au Thoughts podcast. 703 00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,720 Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 704 00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,080 Speaker 2: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. 705 00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:31,239 Speaker 2: Follow our guest Andrea Navarro, She's at Andrea Navarro R 706 00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:34,000 Speaker 2: and be sure to check out her big take on 707 00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,560 Speaker 2: the Terminal and Bloomberg dot Com. Now for a fascinating 708 00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:42,200 Speaker 2: look at the economy and the budget of the OMLO administration. 709 00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,799 Speaker 2: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen armand dash Ol 710 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,239 Speaker 2: Bennett at Dashbot and Kelbrooks at Kelbrooks. Thank you to 711 00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:52,440 Speaker 2: our producer Moses Onam. For more Oddlots content, go to 712 00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:55,319 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where you have transcripts, 713 00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,920 Speaker 2: a blog, and a weekly newsletter and you can chat 714 00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,480 Speaker 2: twenty four to seven with Hello listeners in the discord 715 00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:03,880 Speaker 2: Discord dot gg slash odd Lots. 716 00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,680 Speaker 3: And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you want us 717 00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:10,439 Speaker 3: to have more conversations about Latin America, then please leave 718 00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:14,640 Speaker 3: us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, 719 00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,520 Speaker 3: if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to 720 00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,920 Speaker 3: all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need 721 00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:24,759 Speaker 3: to do is connect your Bloomberg subscription to Apple Podcasts. 722 00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:25,760 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening.