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Speaker 3: Slash NFL The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go from throwing your job, we're

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Speaker 2: sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 5: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 5: go swim.

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Speaker 2: That's in right, a wal.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combine and you want to ball.

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Speaker 6: And we are way.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 2: I'm Jill Glad, joined by Evan Abrams each and every week,

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Speaker 2: and we're going to dive into all the Sunday NFL

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Speaker 2: action for week three. Brandon Anderson is going to join

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Speaker 2: us shortly for the hot reed, and of course we'll

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Speaker 2: have Patrick Evererson. He's waiting in the bullpen. He'll be

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Speaker 2: in with us here at the end of the show

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Speaker 2: to give us an update on how sportsbooks did in

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Speaker 2: Vegas and how they fared this NFL Sunday for Week three.

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Speaker 2: But Evan, let's talk about Monday Night Football before we

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Speaker 2: talk about Sunday. And we've got another doubleheader. We've got

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Speaker 2: Eagles and Buccaneers, and we've got Rams and Bengals. So

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Speaker 2: let's talk about Eagles Buccaneers. First. Eagles minus five or

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Speaker 2: five and five point favorites on the road over under

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Speaker 2: a forty four and a half. Got some pretty strong

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Speaker 2: run defenses, both to and teams. I think probably people

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Speaker 2: are more surprised that the Bucks or two to zero

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Speaker 2: than the Eagles. But the Bucks feel like they are

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Speaker 2: punching above their weight wins over the Vikings and the Bears,

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Speaker 2: while the Eagles, I feel like they haven't met their

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Speaker 2: standard yet there's some injuries. They narrowly beat the Pats. Defensively,

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Speaker 2: they weren't their best versus the Vikings, but they did

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Speaker 2: rally in the second half offensively to really take them down.

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Speaker 2: What are you seeing in this matchup? In which way

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Speaker 2: would you lean here with a bet?

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Speaker 4: So initially I think you have to look at it

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Speaker 4: like this. The line was six and a half when

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Speaker 4: it was you know, last Monday, Like you know, you

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Speaker 4: wake up and you look at this line. So that

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Speaker 4: was probably the best of the number as it's in

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Speaker 4: at five. Like you said, now, I mean, in terms

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Speaker 4: of my bet, I'm gonna go with the first touchdown score.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna take Kate Otten twenty five to one. So

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Speaker 4: always going around fifteen to want or higher. Eight receptions,

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Speaker 4: nine targets were on one of the red zones. Who's

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Speaker 4: getting looked at? And like the interesting thing going forward?

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Speaker 4: Bucks even't turned over the ball. They're the only team

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Speaker 4: in the NFL right now without a giveaway after Dallas

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Speaker 4: and a few other teams had at the interception, et cetera.

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Speaker 4: So one interesting to look at and a fun little

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Speaker 4: trend for the game. So kind of Jalen hurts his

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Speaker 4: time right as a favorite. He's twenty three and five

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Speaker 4: straight up, which is absolutely insane, twenty three and three

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Speaker 4: straight up when the Eagles are favored by three or more,

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Speaker 4: and twenty one and one straight up in his last

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Speaker 4: twenty two starts, so doesn't usually lose here. But I

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Speaker 4: think that if I'm looking at an actual side or total,

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Speaker 4: I probably lean a little under forty five probably the

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Speaker 4: way I would look. But sure we'll go with the

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Speaker 4: Kotton prop too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I would take the Eagles minus five here,

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Speaker 2: And honestly, I think just the Bucks luck is run

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Speaker 2: out here. Like you just said that stat that just

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Speaker 2: shocked me that they do not have a turnover yet

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Speaker 2: and Baker Mayfield is their quarterback, so that automatically is

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Speaker 2: just like, Okay, something has got to give in this spot.

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Speaker 2: But from a touchdown perspective, I'm glad you brought up

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Speaker 2: the first touchdown spot because that's kind of why I

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Speaker 2: was looking at Chris Godwin. Because James Bradberry is back now,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles are going to try to take away that

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Speaker 2: outside option with Mike Evans and force plays over the middle.

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Speaker 2: Godwin and Aughton too, But Godwin is probably the Bucks'

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Speaker 2: best slot weapon. Thirteen targets, three red zone targets and

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Speaker 2: two games and the Eagles they've already given up four

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Speaker 2: passing touchdowns to the slot. So both Auton and Godwin

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Speaker 2: I think are on alert for touchdowns in this spot.

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Speaker 2: Now from an Eagles perspective, same thing. That's where the

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Speaker 2: Bucks are a little bit more weakers over the middle.

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Speaker 2: I think Dallas Goddard could have enough touchdown here. He's

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Speaker 2: around plus two forty. He got five quick targets last week.

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Speaker 2: One of the squeaky wheel treatment as as we like

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Speaker 2: to call it, especially AJ Brown, who is definitely a

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Speaker 2: squeaky wheel in this spot. But yeah, Dallas Goder for

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Speaker 2: a touchdown and Chris Godwin for a touchdown is who

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Speaker 2: I like in this game. And you like Kate Onden

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Speaker 2: for a first touchdown the other Monday night football game,

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Speaker 2: Rams and Bengals. Tricky line here because we're still up

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Speaker 2: in the air entering Sunday night football on who's gonna

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Speaker 2: start this game? Is it gonna be Joe Burrow or

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Speaker 2: is it going to be Browning and the Bank It

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Speaker 2: dropped as soon as we thought maybe Burrow might not

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Speaker 2: be playing, but it has never gone all the way

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Speaker 2: over to the Rams side, which it will happen if

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Speaker 2: Browning is announced as the starter and the over under

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Speaker 2: at forty three and a half, what do we do here?

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Speaker 2: Do we wait till Burrow is getting ruled in, ruled

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Speaker 2: out here? Or should we be looking automatically at a

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Speaker 2: RAMS side, maybe the under? What do you think, Evan?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so down to one and a half range right now?

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Speaker 4: That line. I just don't know if I can play

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Speaker 4: the line at all, because if Burrow plays, which honestly,

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Speaker 4: if my opinion, and I might look stupid when he

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Speaker 4: gets called in, I don't think he's gonna play. I

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Speaker 4: think the line is.

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Speaker 2: Kind of okay.

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Speaker 4: I think the Lion's kind of told the story the

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Speaker 4: entire time, and I think the fact that it's dropped

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Speaker 4: six points or so, I don't see much value in

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Speaker 4: the Rams side, So I don't know if I'm playing

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Speaker 4: a side or total in this one. I just it

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Speaker 4: seems like Cincinnati is extremely desperate. The Rams have to

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Speaker 4: me outplayed their expectations. Why don't think they look like this?

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Speaker 4: So I just think it's more of a listen. Don't

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Speaker 4: need to gamble, especially on a spread of total in

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Speaker 4: every single game. I think you can find value in

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Speaker 4: other places I honestly think this is one where you

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Speaker 4: sit back and watch because Cincinnati's super desperate and Rams,

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Speaker 4: you know, outgoing their expectations. It's a bit of a

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Speaker 4: pass in that area for me, just a little scared.

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Speaker 4: I at least want to watch them play, especially if

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Speaker 4: Burrow's gonna play and he's gonna go out there, you

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Speaker 4: know he's not one hundred percent.

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Speaker 2: That's what I was gonna say. Even if he does play,

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Speaker 2: what kind of Burrow are we even getting? Like? It's

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Speaker 2: what is it? What we saw in week one and

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Speaker 2: week two? And you know the Bengals don't want to

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Speaker 2: go oh and three you talked about do you want

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Speaker 2: to gamble on this? Are the Bengals gonna gamble here

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Speaker 2: and put Burrow out there and potentially risk him to

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Speaker 2: further injuries? Especially because the Rams, as you just mentioned,

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Speaker 2: they look feisty. They've gave the Niners like everything they

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Speaker 2: could have. Kyen Williams, he looks like a star four

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Speaker 2: touchdown so far through two games. So I think if

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Speaker 2: Browning plays, I like the under. If Burrow plays, that

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Speaker 2: means the line's gonna shift back to Cincinnati. Then I

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Speaker 2: like the Rams to cover in that spot. Just because

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Speaker 2: I still do not like what we've seen from Burrow

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Speaker 2: from a touchdown perspective. I'm gonna I'm not gonna try

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Speaker 2: to overcomplicate it here. I think we just got to

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Speaker 2: go Jamar Chase touchdown Browning or Burrow. I mean, he's

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Speaker 2: a round plus one twenty the Rams. Part of the

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Speaker 2: reason why you almost want to look at this because

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Speaker 2: the Rams only have three sacks in two games. They

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Speaker 2: did shut down Geno Smith in that offense, but they

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Speaker 2: haven't really got a lot of pressure through two games.

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Speaker 2: And fun fact, in his career, Jamar Chase has not

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Speaker 2: gone three games in a row without scoring a touchdown

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Speaker 2: since his freshman year at LSU. So this is the

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Speaker 2: third game, so I like him to be able to

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Speaker 2: get in on this spot. All right, let's start looking

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Speaker 2: at the Sunday games. Favorites go eight and five straight

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Speaker 2: up and against the spread entering Sunday Night Football home team,

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Speaker 2: same record eight and five straight up and against the spread,

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Speaker 2: and the totals go back towards the under eight and

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Speaker 2: five this week entering Sunday Night Football after a thirteen

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Speaker 2: to three run to the over in Week two. And

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Speaker 2: Evan it pains me as a Cowboys fan that they

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Speaker 2: have to be in the A block for this reason.

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Speaker 2: But we've got to talk about the Cowboys and Cardinals

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Speaker 2: because it was the biggest upset of the day. Cardinals

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Speaker 2: win twenty eight to sixteen, Cowboys losees eleven and a

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Speaker 2: half point favorites, and the total Jess goes under. Jess

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Speaker 2: goes under his twenty eight to sixteen Marquise Brown. That

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Speaker 2: late touchdown did not seal the over in time, Dallas

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Speaker 2: wasn't able to score more points. What do you take

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Speaker 2: of this? Do you think this is just Cardinals playing

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Speaker 2: feisty or is this the Cowboys being the Cowboys and

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Speaker 2: letting us down when we have high expectations.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so to answer your question, and then I'll give

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Speaker 4: you a fun little nugget. I think Arizona's outplayed expectations

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Speaker 4: all season. The reason that three and against the spread,

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Speaker 4: it's the reason you know, Dobbs hasn't been fantastic, but

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Speaker 4: he's doing enough. And I think it's the defense that's

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Speaker 4: really kind of outplayed expectations a bit, really staying in games,

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Speaker 4: and I just think everyone looked at the roster, everyone

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Speaker 4: looked at the situation, even you know, the coaching expectations

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Speaker 4: and kind of said, Arizona's just going to be awful, right,

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Speaker 4: especially when I remember the day Colt McCoy got cut

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Speaker 4: and everyone was like, oh god, this is it. You know,

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Speaker 4: everyone should bet no wins, everyone should bet all this stuff.

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Speaker 4: They just look a lot better. So it's interesting to

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Speaker 4: even think about They're getting fourteen points in San Francisco

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Speaker 4: next week, which we can talk about in a second,

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Speaker 4: which is a little fascinating. But to kind of set

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Speaker 4: up the day, so three teams at over a touchdown

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Speaker 4: underdog one outright on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 4: That is the first time that's happened since December of

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Speaker 4: twenty eighteen, all in the same day. So just an

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Speaker 4: absolute day of chaos. And I think we're right to

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Speaker 4: start here because this was the chakra of all shocker,

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Speaker 4: and I think it's the chakra of all schoker because nobody,

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Speaker 4: and I mean nobody wants to bet on the Cardinals.

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Speaker 2: Okay, just talk about that a little bit more, Evan,

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Speaker 2: because you've talked about this now. The Cardinals are three

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Speaker 2: and zero against the spread this year, but based on

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Speaker 2: you're tracking and what we have here at Action Network,

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Speaker 2: They're one of the least bet teams through three weeks,

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Speaker 2: yet they're winning at such a great rate. Tell me

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Speaker 2: what is going on here?

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Speaker 4: It's actually not so twenty two percent or less in

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Speaker 4: all three games in terms of tickets when you look

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Speaker 4: at Action Network data, and no team has closed with

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Speaker 4: twenty five percent or less in the first three games

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Speaker 4: since the twenty twelve Dolphins, and the Cardinals would be

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Speaker 4: the first in the last twenty years to do it

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Speaker 4: while going three and oats, which isn't crazy, but it's

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Speaker 4: a story like from a gambling point of view, this

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Speaker 4: is wild. They close with eighteen percent of tickets today

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Speaker 4: double digit home dogs, which double digit home dogs now

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Speaker 4: like seventy three and fifty one over the last twenty years,

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Speaker 4: so seems to be like a blind bet usually when

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Speaker 4: you see those on the board. But Cardinals are also

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Speaker 4: under twenty percent of tickets in back to back games

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Speaker 4: for us. That hasn't happened. That hasn't happened to since

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Speaker 4: twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 2: So it's just that's crazy because if you think about

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Speaker 2: it too, just from a trend perspective, Dak Prescott been

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Speaker 2: a double digit favorite nine times in his career, Cowboys

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Speaker 2: were eight and one straight up and six and three

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Speaker 2: against the spread in those games. Even if the Cardinals

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Speaker 2: were going to keep it close, maybe they know they touchdown,

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Speaker 2: they cover. I don't think anybody was thinking of an

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Speaker 2: outright win for the Cardinals. All right, let's talk about

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Speaker 2: Broncos Dolphins. Dolphins wins seventy that's right. They put up

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Speaker 2: seventy points, not seventy combined points between two teams, seventy points.

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Speaker 2: They win seventy to twenty. They win by fifty over

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Speaker 2: the Broncos today. Dolphins were five and a half point

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Speaker 2: home favorites with the over under forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: They covered the total single handedly by halftime in certain spots,

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Speaker 2: and Russell Wilson now one in nine straight up it

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Speaker 2: is last ten roadstarts.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I guess the situation here, which is a little

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Speaker 4: bit intriguing, is what do you take away from this game? Right? Like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: they scored seventy points, Okay, they won by fifty, But

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Speaker 4: how do you gamble on these teams like next week?

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Speaker 4: Right like or the week after or it's just I

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Speaker 4: think it's really tough to get a read on Miami.

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Speaker 4: I think that's my takeaway from this. You know, when

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Speaker 4: we didn't have Waddle in the lineup, I think a

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Speaker 4: lot of us thought, ooh, six points, six and a

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Speaker 4: half points good value. With Denver. It hasn't been Russ.

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Speaker 4: You know, Russ has looked much better than previous years.

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Speaker 4: But it just didn't matter. I mean, as soon as

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Speaker 4: you saw Tua hit tyreek on I believe it was

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Speaker 4: like the first pass of the game for like a

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Speaker 4: long fifty sixty yard touchdown, it was like, oh, they

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Speaker 4: can't do anything, Like, oh they can't they can't guard

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Speaker 4: them at all. So I guess that was.

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Speaker 2: Just because my Miami's backups outscore Denver today twenty one

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Speaker 2: to twenty. Man And here's the deal. Like Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 2: we've crapped on him in this podcast. I know I

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Speaker 2: did pretty much every week last year and sometimes in

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Speaker 2: the opening couple weeks. But you can blame Russell Wilson

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Speaker 2: all you want. He doesn't play on defense. This is

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Speaker 2: Sean Payton's team. Sean Payton's team is the one who

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Speaker 2: gave up seventy points.

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Speaker 4: I'll say this though, so right now, who is the

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Speaker 4: favorite to win MVP As a shambules The favorite win

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Speaker 4: Coach of the Year and Tyreek's the favorite to win Offensive

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Speaker 4: Player of the Year. So I don't exactly think that

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Speaker 4: the Dolphins are going to go undefeated and this is

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Speaker 4: never going to change. Like I think we're gonna get

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Speaker 4: the NFL roller coaster. And speaking of NFL roller coasters,

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Speaker 4: Miami at Buffalo next week beauty game, they would be

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Speaker 4: Miami right now underdogs. And if I look at the

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Speaker 4: board right now, yeah, two and a half point underdogs.

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Speaker 4: They would be the twelfth team to start three and

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Speaker 4: oh straight up in three and oh against the spread

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Speaker 4: and be a dog in Week four in the last

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Speaker 4: twenty years, So maybe happens once every two years or so.

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Speaker 4: Those teams though, two and nine straight up, three and

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Speaker 4: eight against the spread. So we'll see what happens.

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Speaker 2: The Dolphins are going to move closer than two and

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Speaker 2: a half by the time we get to kick off.

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Speaker 2: I have a feeling that they're going to be very

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Speaker 2: public dog this week, especially after putting up seventy points.

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Speaker 2: I'll have that in my memory for a long time

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Speaker 2: as far as that goes. And Evan, more memories are

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Speaker 2: made when you're there for live NFL action and when

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Speaker 2: slash NFL. The Action Network podcast is presented by BETMGM.

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Speaker 2: Used bonus code Action when signing up to get fifteen

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Speaker 6: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia,

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Speaker 6: West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 2: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or old

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Speaker 2: gambling problem called what eight hundred gambler? All right now,

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Speaker 2: Time for the hot read from our own Brandon Anderson, Brandon,

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Speaker 2: what have you got?

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Speaker 4: Hot wrap? Woo sevent day on ice rights, ice Cream,

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Speaker 4: Whose Radars nineteen seven nineteen Hoory Real Soul.

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Speaker 5: Tray May Thanks guys. Just a quick recap last week.

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Speaker 5: We took forty nine ers Thursday Night minus ten. We

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Speaker 5: only got a half point in the closing line the

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Speaker 5: way that one came out, but coasted to a nice

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Speaker 5: easy eighteen point win and cover Falcons plus five.

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Speaker 2: We did get some good CLV on that.

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Speaker 5: One closed around three, but of course did not come

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Speaker 5: through for us, so we're four to zero on getting CLV.

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Speaker 5: Get that closing line of value. That's what we're doing

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Speaker 5: on the hot read here, three and one on the

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Speaker 5: picks thanks to that Falcons game. If you did not

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Speaker 5: already get the look ahead Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus three

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Speaker 5: and a half at the Saints next week, go ahead

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Speaker 5: and grab that. That would have been in my options

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Speaker 5: for today for the hot read. But already on the

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Speaker 5: look ahead it's plus three now, so we're already at

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Speaker 5: the key number. But I like that even better presuming

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Speaker 5: Jamis Winston probably plays next week for Derek Carr, So

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Speaker 5: today we're gonna actually go with a couple of totals

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Speaker 5: for the hot read. So Week four, let's start Sunday night.

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Speaker 5: Give me the Chiefs and the Jets under forty three

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Speaker 5: and a half. Chiefs obviously rolled up on the Bears

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Speaker 5: on Sunday, big number forty one points, but you know

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Speaker 5: they're playing a JV team, Like, come on, we aren't

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Speaker 5: gonna really read too much into that. They only put

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Speaker 5: twenty on the Lions, they put seventeen on the Jaguars.

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Speaker 5: Aren't really either of those that great of a defense.

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Speaker 5: But Kansaity's defense is quietly playing really well. They're only

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Speaker 5: allowing thirteen point three points per game so far. And

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Speaker 5: we already know the Jets are great defense, especially the

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Speaker 5: pass defense. Sasce Gardner. We know that he's gonna have

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Speaker 5: a big game. That pass defense all shows up for

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Speaker 5: New York. So I think they're gonna match up well

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Speaker 5: with the Chiefs and then obvious Patrick Mahomes on one side,

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Speaker 5: but Zach Wilson on the other side. Even if the

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Speaker 5: Jets do end up going to get a quarterback, you

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Speaker 5: gotta assume it's still Zack the week of the game here,

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Speaker 5: So what do they look like? Twenty two points? In

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Speaker 5: one game ten and ten in the other two games.

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Speaker 5: Only fourteen points a game for the Jets. Or remember

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Speaker 5: of those touchdowns with the miracle overtime punt return that

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Speaker 5: was the twenty two We had two amazing Garrett Wilson plays.

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Speaker 2: That's about it.

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Speaker 5: So if you look back on the season, Jets games

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Speaker 5: have been at forty one or blow. Remember we're forty

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Speaker 5: three and a half here. Sixteen out of twenty times

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Speaker 5: since the start of last season, so eighty percent hit rate,

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Speaker 5: including fourteen of the last fifteen Jets games have gone

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Speaker 5: forty one or below. I think that's maybe where this

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Speaker 5: number gets to. Why are we doing a hot read now?

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00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,520
Speaker 5: Wallace was forty five Sunday morning. If you follow me

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Speaker 5: on the app, you got that as a bonus look ahead,

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Speaker 5: forty three and a half. I still like it. Forty

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Speaker 5: three is a key number for totals. Forty one and

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Speaker 5: forty are key numbers is for total So they're not

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Speaker 5: quite you know, as pronounced as the three and the

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Speaker 5: seven like we know of spreads. But I want to

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Speaker 5: get that before it falls out of these total ranges.

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Speaker 5: We're already seeing some forty three, some forty two and

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Speaker 5: a half to some books. So grab the best number

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Speaker 5: you can get. The under. It's a Sunday night game.

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Speaker 5: Primetime unders are six and two this year as of

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Speaker 5: Sunday Night Football and sixty percent to the under the

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Speaker 5: last four years. Home under under sixty one percent the

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Speaker 5: last two years. So give me the Chiefs Jets under

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Speaker 5: forty three and a half and another under. Give the

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Speaker 5: Patriots Cowboys under forty two and a half. So my

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Speaker 5: number one Power Rankings team from the first three weeks

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Speaker 5: that Dallas Cowboys lost to the Arizona Cardinals, the team

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Speaker 5: we thought might go in seventeen. So obviously that's not

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Speaker 5: happened anymore. But I don't think the sky is falling

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Speaker 5: for Dallas. They had four hundred yards of offense. They

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Speaker 5: just went't won a five in the red zone.

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Speaker 2: It wasn't great. It's not great.

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Speaker 5: We need to solve some of those red zone issues.

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Speaker 5: But they had one hundred yards of penalties on thirty

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Speaker 5: teen penalties. Defense got lit up by Josh Dobbs seven

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Speaker 5: and a half yards to play.

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Speaker 2: That's not great.

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Speaker 5: I'm not that worried that long term about the Cowboys,

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Speaker 5: and I think that sets up for the defense to

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Speaker 5: come out next week against the Patriots and show a

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Speaker 5: little pride, right, You can't give up seven and a

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Speaker 5: half yards of play to Josh Dobbs. Get out of here,

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Speaker 5: so Cowboys Patriots, These are both top five defenses. Patriots

400
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 5: have slowed down the Eagles. They slowed down the Dolphins,

401
00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 5: only twenty four of the Dolphins. That looks pretty good

402
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,199
Speaker 5: when you give up seventy the following week with Miami

403
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 5: so under twenty points a game. For New England's defense,

404
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,680
Speaker 5: Dallas is allowing twelve point seven points a game, even

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Speaker 5: after giving up twenty eight to the Cardinals. So New

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00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,880
Speaker 5: England has not even hit twenty one in any game

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Speaker 5: this season. That offense just doesn't have much explosion to it.

408
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Speaker 5: And then the key thing here and why the hot read,

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00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 5: These offensive lines are a bit messier right now. Dallas

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Speaker 5: Sunday was missing Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, Yaddish, three guys

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Speaker 5: on the line. We don't know if any of them

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00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 5: be ready to go next week. Patriots line has been

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Speaker 5: a mess. Their top two right tackles are out, their

414
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 5: guards are playing hurt. And then you look and we

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Speaker 5: got Micah Parsons, we got Matt Judon, We got all

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Speaker 5: these great defensive fronts, and you know, in this game,

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Speaker 5: like we've seen for two decades, what does Bill Belichick

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00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 5: do against the high powered offense. You slow it down,

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00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 5: You run the clock to keep the ball. I think

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Speaker 5: we get twenty to seventeen, seventeen sixteen, that sort of thing.

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00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,119
Speaker 5: Both teams are under this two of their three games

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00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 5: so far in this line again, already starting to drop here,

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Speaker 5: So grab the under forty two and a half. Not

424
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Speaker 5: worry about Trayvon Diggs here, that's not really an injury

425
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 5: that's gonna matter. The Patriots don't have a receiver that

426
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 5: he needs to guard anyway, So get it before we

427
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Speaker 5: get to that forty one. That forty the key numbers

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00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 5: Cowboys Patriots under forty two and a half. So Week

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Speaker 5: four hot reads are Chiefs Jets under forty three and

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Speaker 5: a half and Cowboys Patriots under forty two and a half.

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00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 5: Back to you guys, thank you Brandon Evan.

432
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 2: Let's look at Chargers Vikings Chargers win twenty eight to

433
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 2: twenty four. Chargers is two and a half point favorites

434
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 2: with the over under at fifty two and a half.

435
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 2: It falls just slightly under and the Vikings are now

436
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 2: all in three in one score of games with the

437
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 2: luck gods smiting them after going eleven and zero in

438
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:19,719
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two.

439
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 4: It's the fumble. Look. I believe they fumbled like eight

440
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 4: times or so this year already, which is absolutely insane.

441
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,240
Speaker 4: And then when you try to look forward and you

442
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 4: say to yourselfs, Okay, well maybe there's a spot to

443
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 4: bet on Minnesota next week, you look at the board

444
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 4: and you say, oh great, they're at Carolina. And if

445
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 4: you watch Carolina play today, I mean, maybe it's Andy Dalton,

446
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 4: maybe we get Bryce Young back again. But I don't

447
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 4: even know how to play that. I guess from this

448
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 4: game specifically, Keenan Allen had eighteen receptions as a Chargers record.

449
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 4: I don't know how you ignore that.

450
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: And passing touchdown today, yes, I think at one point.

451
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 4: He had more passing yards than Zach Wilson. I saw

452
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 4: that going around. So that was a fun one. I

453
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 4: think one of the most. I just I'm a stat guy.

454
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 4: I love all the little nuggets and all the little

455
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 4: trinkets that have to do with some of these games.

456
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 4: So hearing that the Vikings are zero and three and

457
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins leads a league in passing and Justin Jefferson

458
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 4: leads a league in receiving. There's the only thing I

459
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 4: need to say other than that is it's been on

460
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 4: the defense. I believe they blitzed Justin Herbert on like

461
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 4: eighty percent of snaps today, So that was just going

462
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 4: all out, but it just hasn't worked.

463
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, the second half was wild, man, they were trading touchdowns.

464
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 2: But we got to talk about the end of this

465
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 2: game because Brandon Staley gift wraps them. The game goes

466
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 2: forward on fourth and one on his own twenty twenty five,

467
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 2: so they don't convert. Just says go ahead, Vikings, you

468
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: can take it. Go ahead, and then Kirk Cousins, nah,

469
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 2: I'm good, you can have it and throws the ball

470
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: to Howkins and tips it up. Oh the just dumbass

471
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 2: interception in the end zone to end the game. Like

472
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 2: these two teams are the Spider Man meme, like they're

473
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 2: pointing back at each other, like just they're the same team.

474
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 2: These games are so entertaining, but if you bet on

475
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,159
Speaker 2: either side, you get what you deserve. Like that's kind

476
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 2: of how I feel about it at this stage.

477
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 4: I think the funniest thing is before the game kicked off.

478
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 4: All week, both teams are saying to each other, Oh,

479
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:12,199
Speaker 4: you can be the favorite. No, no, no, you can

480
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 4: be the favorite. No no, It literally anyone could have

481
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:16,719
Speaker 4: won this game. It was a crazy bet.

482
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 2: Well, had they converted that touchdown, Vikings would have won.

483
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: Total would have went over instead. Underbetters are laughing their

484
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,880
Speaker 2: ass off and Chargers betters are wondering, how the hell

485
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 2: did we cover that? Saints Packers Packers win eighteen to seventeen.

486
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 2: Total goes under forty two and a half. The Saints

487
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: ended up being the favorite by the time we got

488
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: to kickoff because of all these injuries that got reported

489
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 2: with Aaron Jones, Dave Bactieri, Christian Watson and huge comeback.

490
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 2: They were trailing seventeen to nothing entering the fourth quarter.

491
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 2: They come all the way back and now Matt le

492
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 2: Fluor coach. Teams moved to sixteen and five against the

493
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 2: spread as a dog and four to zero against the

494
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: spread With Jordan Love.

495
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 4: I think the thing you take away from this game

496
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 4: so it's probably two things. Derek Carr, I believe we're

497
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 4: being told it's an ac spring, so probably not back

498
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 4: next week against the Bucks, but potentially at New England

499
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 4: in a week or two, so we'll probably see Jameis Winston.

500
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 4: And then from the other side, Jordan love Man eighteen

501
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 4: to nothing fourth quarter over the Saints first home game.

502
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 4: He looks very composed. Is the word I'm gonna use.

503
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 2: Only thing I would say though, just from a Saints'

504
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 2: perspective is I feel like they put themselves in the

505
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: position to win the game, and then the Geker Groupie

506
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 2: misses the game winning field goal. Packers may have covered anyway,

507
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 2: But the point was is that Jameis Winston I thought

508
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 2: was going to be a complete disaster when he came

509
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 2: in for Derek Carr and wasn't too bad. Colts Ravens.

510
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 2: Colts went twenty two to nineteen in overtime, the under

511
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 2: hits at forty four and a half and the Ravens

512
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 2: were seven and a half point home favorites Minshew Mania,

513
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 2: but he finally beat a good team. I think that

514
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 2: was the one thing that really shocked me. You think

515
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 2: about Gardner mitche Who's time in the NFL. He has

516
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 2: faced six teams above five hundred in his career. He

517
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 2: was always six straight up and one and five against

518
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 2: the spread pulls out a nice win there, and Lamar

519
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 2: Jackson this was actually the more surprising trend when I

520
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: found out I was researching it. Lamar Jackson now since

521
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one is two and twelve against the spread

522
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 2: as a favorite of three points or more. That is

523
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: shocking to me.

524
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 4: I mean it goes with this one right, twenty three

525
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 4: and nine straight up, eleven and twenty one against the

526
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 4: spread as a home favorite, so he tends to not

527
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 4: cover in these spots. But I think the thing that

528
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 4: you mentioned, which is probably the thing two mentioned in

529
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 4: this game, is Minshew played well and the Colts might

530
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 4: just be a little bit better than we thought. Minshew

531
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 4: now two and ten straight up in his last twelve starts,

532
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 4: and he had lost eight straight starts as an underdog.

533
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 4: That's all snapped. Baltimore was decimated by injuries, and this

534
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 4: line at maybe seven and a half eight even you know,

535
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 4: eight and a half earlier in the week, was just

536
00:25:57,840 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 4: too high.

537
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,360
Speaker 2: And the fact that they got into a field goal

538
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 2: fight versus the best kicker in the NFL and they won,

539
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: they lived to tell. Like Tucker with a sixty yarder

540
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: who could have won the game We've seen him do.

541
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 2: This just comes up short. So that's the difference really

542
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 2: in this game, the fact that Justin Tucker could not

543
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 2: nail a sixty yarder to push the Ravens past the

544
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: lowly Indianapolis Colts. All Right, Panthers Seahawks Seahawks went thirty

545
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 2: seven to twenty seven. It might have seemed like a shootout,

546
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 2: but the Seahawks just were out going like crazy offensively.

547
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 2: Seahawks four and a half point favorites. They cover very

548
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 2: easily over it hits also easily at forty three and

549
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 2: a half. As I was saying, Kenneth Walker just ran

550
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 2: all over them. But I will say I do feel

551
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 2: like Carolina got hosed a little bit. It was a

552
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 2: bit of a flag festival in this game. There were

553
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 2: twenty one combined penalties one hundred and sixty five yards,

554
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: and Carolina got thirteen of them. I just found that

555
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: to be wild.

556
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 4: The line movement for me was fascinating this line. The

557
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 4: entire week. We saw Dalton come in, then we saw

558
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 4: the line move down to five. Everyone was kind of

559
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 4: valuing Dalton a little bit better than Bryce Young, it seemed.

560
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 4: So it was interesting. I know, you know, the guys

561
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 4: in the Chad and Simon on the favorite. So a

562
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 4: bunch of people liked Carolina. They felt sure at the

563
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 4: five points, you know, and honestly, there was points in

564
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 4: this game where they were covering. They probably could have

565
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 4: found themselves inside the number. But I guess my takeaway

566
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 4: is if it is Andy Dalton going forward, you know,

567
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 4: you've got the vikings, you're at Detroit. He seems like

568
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,959
Speaker 4: he's gonna keep you in these games. I think it's

569
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 4: Carolina's defense that's really looked bad. So maybe maybe I'll

570
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 4: look at like a Minnesota team total over, you know,

571
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 4: desperate team owen three facing Carolina next week, that might

572
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 4: be something to look at.

573
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 2: If it's not Bryce Young, now, when is it like

574
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 2: gonna be He's not gonna get taller, you know. And

575
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 2: if it's Dalton going forward, like, I'm just not sure

576
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 2: if Bryce Young would have been any better in this spot.

577
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 2: But if Bryce Young.

578
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 4: Isn't the answer, I don't think he would yet. Yeah,

579
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 4: this is trouble.

580
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 2: This is bad news for Carolina, who took him number

581
00:27:56,520 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 2: one overall. Bears Chiefs. Chiefs just decimated the Bears forty

582
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 2: one to ten. They do go over the total of

583
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 2: forty eight and a half and the Chiefs cover. They

584
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 2: cover as a big favorite, as a twelve and a

585
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: half point favorite. But the story of this game is

586
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 2: Taylor Swift was in the house and Travis kelce he

587
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 2: scored a touchdown. I don't think there was anything more

588
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 2: obvious than Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs trying to make

589
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey look good in front of Taylor Swift who

590
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 2: was hanging out in the Kelsey suite. Now Bears though

591
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 2: this is the stat Chad Millman brought it up last week.

592
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 2: We got to talk keep talking about it. When opponents

593
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 2: score twenty or more points on the Bears, they are

594
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 2: now oh to nineteenth straight up in Justin Field starts

595
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 2: all five wins that he has in his career, the

596
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 2: opponent scored less than twenty points. Texans Jaguars. Texans went

597
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 2: thirty seven to seventeen. We do see a slight under

598
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 2: The Jaguars were seven and a half point favorites. The

599
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 2: Texans win outright. I don't really have much to add

600
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,479
Speaker 2: to this game. I'll just say, Trevor Lawrence, Texans got

601
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 2: your number, man, your one and four straight up and

602
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 2: against the spread versus the Texans in your career, you

603
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: were favored in all of them. I think I'm out

604
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 2: on the Jags. This is not what I signed up

605
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 2: for when I was talking about them going for potential

606
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 2: number one seed. And Lawrence's MVP.

607
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence now three and six straight up, is a

608
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 4: favorite in his career. CJ. Straudman. That guy does not

609
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 4: look like a rookie. It is most pass attempts I

610
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 4: believe in NFL history by a rookie without an interception.

611
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 4: So he's doing things and controlling the ball and controlling

612
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 4: the tempo. And Houston looks, you know, decent, and his

613
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 4: relationship with Tank Dell out there and they're looking good,

614
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 4: and now you get they they're at home against the

615
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 4: Steelers next week. That line they're getting three and a

616
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 4: half points, so they're competent. One more Jags offense. That's

617
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 4: the other one that's absolutely insane. Between Kansas City's defense

618
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 4: last week, which we now know this might be one

619
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 4: of the best Kansas City defenses under Mahomes. They just

620
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 4: look fantastic. But that week mixed with this week and

621
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 4: now Jags go back to back in London. I don't

622
00:29:58,240 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 4: know how they're going to get that fixed. So that's

623
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 4: that's only one thing to look at.

624
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, Falcons Lions. Lions win twenty to six. Total goes

625
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 2: way under at forty seven and a half. Lions win

626
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 2: as two and a half point favorites. Jared Goff eighteen

627
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 2: and eight against the spread now at home since twenty twenty.

628
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,479
Speaker 2: That's the second most profitable quarterback in the NFL, behind

629
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts. Bill's Commanders Bills win thirty seven to three.

630
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: What a chicken ship field goal by the Commanders there

631
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 2: at the end of that game. You should have went

632
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 2: for a touchdown. The underhits at forty four and a half,

633
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 2: but the Bills they do cover at six and a

634
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: half point favorites. And that's important to note because Josh

635
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: Allen has fifty eight wins in his career, seventy five

636
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 2: percent of those, so forty four of them have been

637
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 2: by seven points or more. So that is a very

638
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: key stat. If you think the Bills are going to win,

639
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 2: they usually do, and when they do, they roll so

640
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 2: and especially the fact that they were able to cause

641
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: so much pressure that they got Sam Howe to throw

642
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 2: four interceptions, not to not four interceptions in a game.

643
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: I couldn't believe it that they would still keep him

644
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 2: out there and not always try to go to a backup.

645
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 2: But yeah, that's the way the cookie crumbles. Titans Browns.

646
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: Browns win twenty seven to three. Total goes under thirty

647
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: eight and a half and the Browns easily cover the

648
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 2: three and a half. Deshaun Watson eleven and one straight

649
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: up and seven and three and two against the spread

650
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 2: on short rest on his career, they played Monday night football,

651
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 2: So keep that in mind if you're seeing the Browns

652
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 2: in primetime. And this is the Deshaun Watson We've been

653
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: waiting to see evan two hundred and eighty nine passing yards,

654
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, some rushing yards for first downs, Like we

655
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: could say some nice things about him, but he's got

656
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: to play better. But at the same time, Brown's defense

657
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 2: they wipe the floor with the Titans ninety four total

658
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 2: yards on offense, no first downs running the ball when

659
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 2: you have a Derrick Henry running back lad offense, Tyja

660
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 2: Sharp or Spears rather outsnapped Derrick Henry today one of

661
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 2: the weirdest things I've seen. The Titans definitely are broken,

662
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 2: all right, last game Patriots Jets. Patriots win fifteen to ten.

663
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: Total goes under. Patriots do win the two and a half.

664
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 2: If you had the three and they got that lace safety,

665
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 2: you got covered by that as well. Total goes under

666
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 2: the thirty five and a half. And Mac Jones he

667
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 2: owns Zach Wilson and the Jets man five and zero

668
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 2: against the spread versus the Jets, and Zach Wilson ten

669
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 2: and nineteen and one against the spread versus all other

670
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 2: teams in his career. And the Jets now lose another game,

671
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 2: fifteen straight losses to New England. The Jets haven't beat

672
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: the Patriots since twenty fifteen, Evan. So I'll leave you

673
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 2: with this. This is the last question. Was that Zach

674
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 2: Wilson's last start as a Jet.

675
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 4: N He'll He'll keep starting, my honest opinion, So, Jets

676
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 4: home against Kansas City on Sun Night Football, they go

677
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 4: at Denver, they're at home against Philly, then they have

678
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 4: the bye. I think at minimum he's going to start

679
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 4: that KC game. And I understand, Listen, you're throwing him

680
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 4: to the Wolves because primetime game, Casey's defense looks great.

681
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 4: Things seem to be humming well, in Kansas City after

682
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 4: the Detroit loss. You know, their offense seems to be

683
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 4: keeping up, and you know, I just think he's not.

684
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 4: This isn't it because not because I don't think he listen,

685
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 4: he's awful. They have three offensive touchdowns this year. They

686
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 4: have six hundred and seventy five yards in three games.

687
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 4: Miami has seven to twenty six today. So it just

688
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 4: things are very, very wrong. And not only that Andy

689
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 4: Dalton looked good, Gardner Minshew.

690
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: Mike White looked good. Mike White looked good in Miami today.

691
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 4: In fact, all these quarterbacks look fine out there, like

692
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 4: they're doing their jobs. They're doing okay. So I think

693
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 4: they should figure something out. But I think it's too

694
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 4: short to pull on this type of week on Sunday

695
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 4: night football a Kansas City. I'm going to assume he

696
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 4: starts this game, but man, they got to get someone

697
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 4: else in there.

698
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 2: Well. If he does start, it's by default, because there's

699
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 2: no way that anybody has him as the first starting quarterback.

700
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,479
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720
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Speaker 2: percent off. Now, let's check in with Patrick Everson with

721
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 2: Vegas Insider to talk about the latest happenings from the

722
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 2: sports betting capital the world in Las Vegas. Patrick few underdogs,

723
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 2: big underdogs one today. What's the vibe in Vegas sports books?

724
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 2: The odds bakers that you're talking to, How do the

725
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 2: books do overall?

726
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,280
Speaker 3: In Week three on Sunday, I'd say to this point,

727
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 3: really well, a couple of decisions that fortunately fell the

728
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 3: better's way. But boy, those upsets you talked about, especially

729
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 3: the Cardinals beating the Cowboys, but the Texans beating the Jags.

730
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 2: What do we make of the Jags now?

731
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 3: I mean, this was a team that made it to

732
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 3: the divisional round last year in the playoffs and now

733
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 3: they've got to make their annual sojourn to London. And

734
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 3: then of course the Colts beating the Ravens. I mean,

735
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 3: those were three outcomes that you know what a lot

736
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 3: of people like to do a lot of the public,

737
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 3: recreational betters, the betting curious, and so forth, they like

738
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 3: to stack together those moneyline parlays with favorites, and some

739
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 3: of these larger favorites they almost see as like a

740
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 3: free space on a bingo card. Well, I didn't work

741
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 3: out so well today. I mean, if you didn't have

742
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 3: your moneyline parley or teaser wiped out by the jag

743
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 3: losing or the Ravens losing. Then you almost assuredly had

744
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 3: it wiped out when the Cowboys unexpectedly lost to the Cardinals,

745
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 3: with the Cowboys a double digit fail.

746
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 2: So let's talk about this the Cardinals game specifically, because

747
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 2: we've been talking about this. Evan and I we talked

748
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,760
Speaker 2: about this earlier in the show, talking about how nobody's

749
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 2: really wanting to bet on the Cardinals. Yet here we are.

750
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 2: They're three and oh against the spread. They've played tough

751
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 2: every game they've looked the part of a three and

752
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,759
Speaker 2: zero against the spread team? Is it the same thing

753
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 2: in Vegas? With the sportsbooks and the oddsmakers that you're

754
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 2: talking to, Are they getting action on the Cardinals?

755
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,720
Speaker 3: They're not seeing much at all on the Cardinals. In fact,

756
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 3: one oddsmaker told me this afternoon pre game that they

757
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 3: really needed one of either the Cardinals or the Bears

758
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 3: to get an upset in the afternoon. They would have

759
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 3: taken both teams covering the number at least, but what

760
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 3: they really wanted was an upset. And you know, while

761
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 3: he's saying, is like, look, no surprise, we'd love it,

762
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 3: but we don't expect to get it. And then they

763
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 3: get it. So obviously the Cowboys were heavily bet. They

764
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,839
Speaker 3: were heavily bet on straight bets. But also again as

765
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 3: I alluded to, they were in all the moneyline parlays

766
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 3: and teasers and so forth. And I had Scott Shelton

767
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 3: with bet MGM Nevada. He told me late Saturday night

768
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 3: when I had a discussion with him, just kind of

769
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 3: mapping out how Sunday's games looked early on, and he

770
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 3: said the biggest ticket count discrepancy on spread bets, just

771
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 3: straight spread bets was the Cowboys Cardinals game. Cowboys takeing

772
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 3: five times more tickets than Arizona. And he said, there's

773
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 3: virtually almost nothing on Arizona. And that was late Saturday night.

774
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 3: I'm sure it changed a little bit during the day Sunday,

775
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 3: but probably not very much. Maybe now that Arizona's three

776
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 3: and zero against the spread, maybe people will start to

777
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 3: taking a look their way. Perhaps they should makes him

778
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 3: wonder what they'll do when, you know when and if

779
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 3: they get the Kyler Murray back under center for real.

780
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 2: And the thing is you're saying sportsbooks did well overall.

781
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 2: Was there a game that the public was on that

782
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 2: they took it from the sports book, I would think

783
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 2: it would happen to be Broncos Dolphins, but you clarify

784
00:37:58,480 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 2: this for.

785
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 3: Me, Yeah, you had to bring that up. It was

786
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 3: absolutely Dolphins bron Sticky.

787
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 2: Hey, Mike, Cowboys lost today too.

788
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 5: So I know it's all good.

789
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 3: I just had myself a weekend as a Colorado Buffs

790
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 3: alone and a Denver.

791
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 2: Broncos die hard. Oh my goodness. I mean, what was

792
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:16,879
Speaker 2: the combined score?

793
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 3: So seventy and forty two, So that's one hundred and

794
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 3: twelve to twenty six those two teams.

795
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 2: Yikes.

796
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 3: Not a good weekend for my teams. But yes, the

797
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 3: public was really on the Dolphins, and look, the Broncos

798
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,759
Speaker 3: were really a sharp play this week. That's why that

799
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 3: number went down. It was seven, it got down to six.

800
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 3: I think I might have heard there was a five

801
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 3: and a half for maybe a little bit pre kick.

802
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 3: Not positive on that, but still it was down a

803
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 3: point and off the key number of seven. The sharp

804
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 3: betters definitely thought the Broncos might have something to prove today,

805
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 3: try to show that they've got something to them. And

806
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 3: Sean Payton certainly wants to see better out of this team. Boy,

807
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 3: he did not see that today. But the public was

808
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 3: definitely on the Dolphins heavy. So that was a good

809
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 3: outcome for the betters. Another outcome, and I think this

810
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 3: dependent on the book you were at, because that Chargers

811
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 3: Vikings game was so evenly.

812
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:05,839
Speaker 2: Matched and then it played out that way.

813
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, the line flipped a couple of times and

814
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 3: then it played out that way on the field. It

815
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 3: was a real back and forth game and either team

816
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 3: could have won late and just you know, mistakes and

817
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 3: stoppages on fourth down and all that. But there was

818
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 3: one odds maker that told me that that the Chargers

819
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 3: hanging on there at the end, holding off the Vikings,

820
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 3: getting the interception in the end zone to end, it

821
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 3: was a pretty good outcome for better than one of

822
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 3: their bigger losses of the day behind.

823
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 2: The counter, which is crazy because the Chargers did everything

824
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 2: they could to try to give that game away. Can

825
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 2: I throw you one more funny quote real quick, let's

826
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 2: let's hear it. One odds maker.

827
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 3: Told me that one that said that the Charges were

828
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 3: good for the betters Chargers Vikings is like, who can

829
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 3: out lose the other team? It turns out it's the Vikings.

830
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 2: Do you know what I called it. I called it.

831
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 2: It's the Spider Man meme. They're just pointing at each

832
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 2: other the same team.

833
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 3: Love it exactly very well, put same kind of same

834
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 3: kind of sentiment there.

835
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 2: Let's get you out of here on this one, Patrick,

836
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: Is there any game next week already looking for Week

837
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 2: four that you're hearing a lot of early action on

838
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: at the specific side or total? What are we looking

839
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 2: at for a week four? Is there any movement already

840
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 2: that we should be paying attention to.

841
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 3: There's a line that I know moved that I was

842
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 3: just writing about a moment ago, Ravens Browns. This opened

843
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 3: pick him initially and then went to Ravens one very briefly,

844
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 3: then quickly returned to pick them en route to hopping

845
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 3: the fence to Browns minus one, then Browns minus two.

846
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 3: So that has been a mover early on that Ravens

847
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 3: Browns game, which is going to be a pretty key

848
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 3: game for both of them, and it's definitely had some

849
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 3: interesting movement early on, and generally speaking, when you see

850
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 3: that kind of movement early on, it's sharp play that's

851
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 3: pushing that number.

852
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 2: Around well, especially because it might be leading to the

853
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 2: idea that the Ravens might not be fully healthy defensively

854
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: again going into next week. All right, Patrick, that'll do

855
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 2: it for you. Man. Thanks for coming on. We'll see

856
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 2: you next week. Absolutely, all right, that'll do it. That'll

857
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 2: be Patrick, that's Evan, that's Brandon. I want to thank

858
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 2: everybody for listening to the Action Network podcast presented by

859
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 2: bet MGM. Enjoy the doubleheader for Monday Night Football, and

860
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 2: keep an eye out for all of our Week four

861
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: NFL podcasts right here on the Action Network.

862
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

863
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler