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Speaker 1: All right, and we are back in action. Baby. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's the Betting Pros College Football Show, and after a

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Speaker 1: long offseason away, we're back in the saddle with our

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Speaker 1: Week zero early picks and line movement predictions. I'm Roe

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Speaker 1: Seth Wilcock coming to you roughly fifteen minutes north of

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Speaker 1: Happy Valley, where the number two team in the country

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Speaker 1: is gearing up for what some are calling our season.

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Speaker 1: And Ryan Shotgun with me is my fellow yinzer hone

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Speaker 1: it down in the Longhorn State arch manning backer one

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Speaker 1: of the sharpest CFB handicappers across this beautiful nation. It's

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Speaker 1: Scott Bogman hook Em Bogs. Great to be back with you,

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Speaker 1: and if you can tell, I'm absolutely jacked out for

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Speaker 1: college football to be back in our lives beginning this Saturday.

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Speaker 2: My friend, Hey, look, I'm about three hours east of

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Speaker 2: where the actual national title contenders are in Austin. So yeah, man, Look,

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Speaker 2: it's so much fun for us because our team's like

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Speaker 2: one and two in the preseason poll, right, so we're

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Speaker 2: looking everybody right now. Of course, my season could turn

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Speaker 2: upside down real quick with Ohio State Week one against Longhorns,

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Speaker 2: but it's a long season regard regardless of what happens

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Speaker 2: in that game. I think both of our teams are

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Speaker 2: going to be in the playoff and contending this year,

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Speaker 2: so but a long way to go. We are just

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Speaker 2: at the roots of this season. It's going to grow

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Speaker 2: into a nice, mighty oak. So we are ready to

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Speaker 2: rock and roll. Let's plant the scene, let's roll, let's

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Speaker 2: do it.

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Speaker 1: Man vibes are high. The betting cars are back to

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Speaker 1: records of zero, zero, and zero as well, so we'll

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Speaker 1: reset that and in today's episode it does look like this.

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Speaker 1: We'll break down the early picks and line movement predictions

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Speaker 1: for Pharmageddon Iowa State versus Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland,

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Speaker 1: of course, and Fresno State at Kansas, Stanford at Hawaii.

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Speaker 1: We also have some rapid fire picks coming your way

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Speaker 1: for Sam Houston at Western Kentucky and of course Idaho

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Speaker 1: State at unlv A little FCS versus SBS last to

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Speaker 1: round us out, and then we'll also share our week

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Speaker 1: zero betting strategy. How are we approaching this from a

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Speaker 1: unit allocation standpoint? And it's fantastic time to get invested

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Speaker 1: with the pageantry that is college football. And there's no

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Speaker 1: better time to start than this limited Week zero slate.

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Speaker 1: Kind of dip your toes into the water a little

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Speaker 1: bit and real quick before we jump in. Shout out

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Speaker 1: to everyone hanging out with us either on the Begging

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Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed easiest freeway support us.

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Speaker 1: Give this video a thumbs up if you usually this

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Speaker 1: type of content. Also make sure if you are new

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Speaker 1: the year, subscribed so you don't miss a second of

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Speaker 1: college football betting coverage this season. And let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and jump into the early picks and line movement predictions

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Speaker 1: for Week zero's biggest games at noon Eastern time. It

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Speaker 1: is Pharmageddon in Dublin. We're number seventeen Kansas State. They're

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Speaker 1: now a three point favorite against their Big twelve rival,

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Speaker 1: the twenty second ranked Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State is

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Speaker 1: returning fourteen starters, but will have to replace their talented

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Speaker 1: wide receiver duo of Gane Higgins and Jalen Knowle, plus

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Speaker 1: speedy cornerback Darien Porter Junior, all of whom went on

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Speaker 1: Day two of the NFL Draft. Head coach Matt Campbell

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Speaker 1: Rocko Becked at quarterback. They led the Cyclones to an

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Speaker 1: eleven to three record last season and the Big twelve

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Speaker 1: championship game where they ultimately fell to the Arizona State

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Speaker 1: Sun Devils. Kansas State on the other side, though they

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Speaker 1: had incredibly high hopes in twenty twenty four, they let

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Speaker 1: Will Howard go. They let Avery Johnson, dole threat quarterback

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Speaker 1: sophomore last season, run the show. However, I would say

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Speaker 1: they fell short of expectations, finished nine to four. All

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Speaker 1: four losses came in Big Twelve play. The Wildcat return

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Speaker 1: eleven starters on both sides of the ball combined, including

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Speaker 1: CFF favorite Dylan Edwards at running backs. So, Boggs, let's

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Speaker 1: start with the expected line movement. What are you expecting

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Speaker 1: this to move to after originally opening up at a

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Speaker 1: three and a half point spread.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think case State is. I think it's moving

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Speaker 2: towards KSE eight. But you know, it opened up way

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Speaker 2: earlier in the offseason. The week zero lines, Week one

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Speaker 2: lines of open way way way too early to start

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Speaker 2: getting some numbers on him and stuff. And it opened

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Speaker 2: up way too early, and it was I think it

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Speaker 2: was on the other side. And so over the last

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Speaker 2: month it's gone from three and a half to three

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Speaker 2: three and a half to three, so I think we're

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Speaker 2: probably going to stay there. But it looks like the

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Speaker 2: consensus of what I have seen of people picking this

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Speaker 2: game is that K State people are on K State,

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Speaker 2: so I expect the money to flow towards them a

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Speaker 2: little bit. But this is a good game to start

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Speaker 2: us with. Man, this is right down the middle. This

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Speaker 2: can go either way. And remember we had this game

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Speaker 2: overseas last year to start off this season. It is

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Speaker 2: Florida State and Georgia Tech, and Florida State was a

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Speaker 2: massive favorite. Everybody had them. Georgia Tech ended up winning

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Speaker 2: that game. So week zero week one is always crazy.

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Speaker 2: But for me, I think I'm going to be on

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Speaker 2: K State here. That is that where you have fallen.

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Speaker 2: Where are you at Sethi?

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Speaker 1: So for me, if I had to pick a side here,

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Speaker 1: I would go CAMP State. I do agree with you.

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Speaker 1: But the way I'm playing this right now, I haven't

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Speaker 1: bet this yet. I'm gonna be waiting for a boost.

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Speaker 1: But the Iowa State team under twenty three and a

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Speaker 1: half points is minus one of six at fandle. I

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Speaker 1: think rock O Bett could struggle a little bit off

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Speaker 1: the rip here getting adjusted without Higgins without Noel. They

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Speaker 1: do have six year senior Daniel Jackson, he transfers in

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Speaker 1: from Minnesota. He's gonna play that exposition, probably their best

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Speaker 1: wide receiver. And then they have Chase Sowell, He's coming

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Speaker 1: from ECU to run out of the flanker position. And

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Speaker 1: then Xavier Townsend from UCF. He's coming off injury to

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Speaker 1: replace Noel in the slot. So I have big question

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Speaker 1: marks about this Iowa State offense. It was very potent

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Speaker 1: last season. And the other thing to keep in mind here,

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Speaker 1: Bogs is Kansas State was eleventh in rushing last season

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fifteen point five yards per game, and

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Speaker 1: Iowa State could not stop the run. We talked about

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Speaker 1: it all last season. Their linebacking corps was depleted one

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Speaker 1: hundred and ninth in rushing defense first and passing defense

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Speaker 1: as well. So they had that great secondary. I think

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Speaker 1: Chris Kleiman, I think he will be very inclined to

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Speaker 1: keep the ball on the ground, chew the clock with

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Speaker 1: Dylan Edwards score those college fantasy football points for those

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Speaker 1: who invested in the Wildcats running back. So I think

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Speaker 1: Kansas State's going to try to run this clock out.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna try to keep the ball away

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Speaker 1: from rock Obec, and for me, it's I would state

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Speaker 1: under twenty three and a half points currently. Your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on that and kind of the analysis that the climbing

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Speaker 1: might want to keep the ball out of the air

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Speaker 1: early on, I mean, I.

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Speaker 2: Think Arad Johnson is not the best passing quarterback, so

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Speaker 2: I think keeping the ball on the ground with him

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Speaker 2: and with Dylan Edwards in particular, is exactly the name

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Speaker 2: of the game for the Wildcats here and for me.

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Speaker 2: You know, the big missing piece from last year for

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Speaker 2: kse State on offense is Gidtons, but they're replacing him

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Speaker 2: with one of the best running backs in the conference

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Speaker 2: in Dylan Edwards. As you mentioned before, the pieces of

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Speaker 2: the O line that they lost, they addressed to the

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Speaker 2: portal this season on defense, a very stable upfront, but

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Speaker 2: they lost a lot in the secondary, which you would

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Speaker 2: think matches up well with Iowa State, who had all

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Speaker 2: those passing yards last year. But the reason I like

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Speaker 2: k State is because the weakness that they have in

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Speaker 2: the secondary I don't think matches up very well with

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Speaker 2: Iowa State. You lost Jalen Knowle and Jadan Higgins. That's

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty nine and one hundred and nineteen targets.

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Speaker 2: That's just under fifty percent of the targets for that team,

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Speaker 2: and no other player had more than thirty four. Right,

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Speaker 2: So you have guys that are transferring in that have experience,

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Speaker 2: but you're not getting Higgins or nol You're not getting

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Speaker 2: second and third round NFL draft picks to come in

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Speaker 2: here and take this over. Last year, Iostate rated one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twelfth in pass blocking one hundred nineteenth in

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Speaker 2: run blocking. The O line was not the strength last season,

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Speaker 2: and they lost their best alignment in Jalen Travis to

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Speaker 2: the NFL draft. So I think everything offensively flows through

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Speaker 2: the wide receivers and Nolan Higgins, and they ranked twenty

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Speaker 2: third last year in receiving grade. That was literally the

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Speaker 2: only positive part of their offense. The running backs are good,

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Speaker 2: but they can't block for them, obviously from the grades

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Speaker 2: that they had last year. So I don't want to

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Speaker 2: touch the total because I don't know how bad the

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Speaker 2: kse eate secondary is going to be. I think it's

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Speaker 2: going to be rough. State is still strong on defense,

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Speaker 2: like you said, so it should keep this game closer, right,

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Speaker 2: But I just think that Kansas State is a more

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Speaker 2: complete team. I think you rip the heart out of

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Speaker 2: Iowa State by taking away their big pass catchers from

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Speaker 2: last season. Then they just don't have an identity on offense.

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Speaker 2: And yet maybe they find it, maybe they find it quickly.

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Speaker 2: Right it's week zero. We don't know a lot about

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Speaker 2: these teams. Maybe some of these wide receivers are way

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Speaker 2: better than I'm giving credit for at Iowa State, but

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Speaker 2: I don't think so. So I'm I'm on k State here.

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Speaker 1: So are you taking that now then? Because you're expecting

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Speaker 1: maybe this to balloon up a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if it does move, it's going to

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Speaker 2: move towards k State. So I would get it as

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Speaker 2: early as I can, and I think three is the

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Speaker 2: best number you can get right.

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Speaker 1: Now, Okay, before we keep it moving, I did want

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Speaker 1: to remind everyone that you can actually track the movement

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Speaker 1: of lines in real time with the Betting pros app.

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Speaker 1: Download the free Betting pros app for iOS and Android.

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Speaker 1: With sportsbooks, you can automatically track your bets across all

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Speaker 1: major sportsbooks in one spot. Easily monitor your bet performance

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Speaker 1: by sport and bet type, including game picks. Props and

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Speaker 1: of course, parlays great custom betting systems to find winning

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Speaker 1: trends and profitable opportunities. You can get a free seven

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Speaker 1: day trial of Betting Pros Premium by downloading the app

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Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash apps and using the promo

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Speaker 1: code Juice and acting your trial on the upgrade screen.

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Speaker 1: The action keeps going at six thirty pm Eastern Time,

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Speaker 1: where the Kansas Jayhawks are twelve point home favorites against

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Speaker 1: Fresno State. Kansas was another team that I would say

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Speaker 1: finished well below expectations last year towards the bottom of

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Speaker 1: the Big Twelve standings, missed a bowl game. However, they

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Speaker 1: did win three of their last four games went on

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Speaker 1: a heater down the stretch there, including matchups against Iowa State, Colorado,

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Speaker 1: and BYU, all of whom we're in contention for the

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Speaker 1: Big Twelve title. Rock Chalk returns to six starters, including

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Speaker 1: six year senior Jalen Daniels. However, he will be without

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Speaker 1: former star running back Devin Neil in the backfield for

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Speaker 1: the first time in his collegiate career. Fresno's State. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: they're turning the page after a six and seven season

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Speaker 1: fourth of the Mountain West, though, and they begin the

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Speaker 1: matt ens Era, who was an assistant coach at USC

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Speaker 1: last year formerly though was up North Dakota State, took

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Speaker 1: them to two FCS championship games. Mikey Keane gone at quarterback.

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Speaker 1: That opens up the door for EJ. Warner to take

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Speaker 1: over after transferring in from Rice. The Bulldogs. We know

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Speaker 1: one thing about him here, Boggs's they like that power

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Speaker 1: run game they carried their offense last year. They have

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Speaker 1: depth in the backfield once again, but inexperience out wide

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Speaker 1: and on defense could spell trouble for them this season.

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Speaker 1: Where are you going with the line movement here, Scott?

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Speaker 1: Are you thinking that this will continue to shrink? It

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Speaker 1: opened up at fourteen, It's still there at some books,

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Speaker 1: but has moved closer to twelve at most shops. So

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Speaker 1: are you thinking this is still gonna shrink? I do.

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Speaker 2: I think there's no public trust in Kansas, and it's

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Speaker 2: hard to combat that. Like it's hard to give a

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Speaker 2: good reason against that. I guess you know. You pointing

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Speaker 2: out how great Kansas was at the end of twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four is, Yeah, they were great. They ruined a

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Speaker 2: lot of my tickets. I remember being very aggravated by them.

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Speaker 2: I don't love this game, and this is a perfect

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Speaker 2: game to practice patients. Right. If I'm picking something, I'll

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Speaker 2: give you a pick. My pick is Kansas minus the points,

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Speaker 2: and the reason is because Fresno State is hitting the

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Speaker 2: reset button at every position this year. Matt enz is

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Speaker 2: coming in, he's cleaning house. They had a physical camp,

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Speaker 2: they hit a bunch, and he just wants the He's

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Speaker 2: this is a trim the fat year for Fresno State,

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Speaker 2: and they might start to gel really well and work

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Speaker 2: together at some point this season, But I don't think

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Speaker 2: it's going to be Week one on the road in

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Speaker 2: Lawrence against a power for content or a power for team.

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Speaker 2: So for me, I like matt Ends. I think he's

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Speaker 2: going to improve Fresno State quickly and rapidly. But I

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Speaker 2: do not like the match up here with Kansas. You know,

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Speaker 2: Jayalenn Daniels, like you said, took that massive step back.

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Speaker 2: Twenty touchdowns in twenty turnovers, Devin Neil is gone. Wide

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Speaker 2: receiver room and tight end room are completely different than

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Speaker 2: they were last season. They're replacing three of five starters

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Speaker 2: on the offensive line. They're eighty fifth and returning defensive

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Speaker 2: production the Jayhawks. So there's a lot to not like

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Speaker 2: about the Jayhawks, which makes me want to stay away

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Speaker 2: from this game because I know nothing about Fresno State.

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Speaker 2: Because Matt ends is he's doing it on the fly

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Speaker 2: right now. So for me, I do think Kansas wins

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Speaker 2: this game going away. I think this is a nice

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Speaker 2: momentum builder if you're the Jayhawks, you put some points up,

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Speaker 2: you get your confidence going and all that against a

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Speaker 2: G six opponent here. But for me, I'm I'm going

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Speaker 2: to take Kansas and lay the points if I'm doing anything,

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Speaker 2: and honestly, I'm not touching this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, this is a no for me. If

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Speaker 1: I had to pick something for me, I would lean

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Speaker 1: towards the under. Just with two newer offenses getting their

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Speaker 1: feet under them, I'm curious how Kansas will run the

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Speaker 1: rock now without Devin Neil in the backfield to take

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Speaker 1: a little coverage off of Daniels there. So but like, still, like,

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Speaker 1: do you really ever feel good laying and under in

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Speaker 1: in a you know, a game in a big twelve stadium.

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Speaker 1: I don't, so you shouldn't. Yeah, So I think for

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Speaker 1: both of us right now, it is a pass, but

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Speaker 1: we are expecting this to potentially continue to shrink up here.

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Speaker 2: Huh Yeah, I think so. I think I think it

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Speaker 2: is going to trend towards USD Saint just because no

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Speaker 2: one really trusts Kansas.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, we'll see what Terrell has to say on

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Speaker 1: UH on our Picks and Predictions episode later this week.

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Speaker 1: See if he can give you guys to argue with

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Speaker 1: me yet. So yeah, we'll save that for another day. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Hawaii keeps its tradition of hosting week zero games alive

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Speaker 1: and UH as they sit anywhere from a one and

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Speaker 1: a half to a two and a half point favorite

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Speaker 1: against the Stanford car After finishing three and nine last season,

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Speaker 1: second to last in the ACC, Andrew Luck was named

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Speaker 1: general manager and made his presence fell almost immediately. He

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Speaker 1: fired head coach Troy Taylor brought in his old head coach,

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Speaker 1: Frank Wright to lead this ball club. And it was

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Speaker 1: a long quarterback battle this offseason for Stanford, but it

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Speaker 1: looks like it's going to be Oregon State transfer Ben

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Speaker 1: Gobranson who will get the nod. He is surrounded by

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Speaker 1: eleven starters, including running back Sam Rousch, who's returning. However,

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Speaker 1: this is a whole new wide receiver corps, including the

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Speaker 1: loss of elk Ao Mannor to the NFL Draft. He

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Speaker 1: ended up with the Titans. Meanwhile, Timmy Chang, we only

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Speaker 1: talked about Timmy Chang and Hawaii about once a year. Bogs,

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Speaker 1: and this is Sero. This is that man. Two back

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Speaker 1: to back five wins seasons for the Rainbow Warriors. It's

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Speaker 1: a youth movement for Hawaii, though they will be having

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Speaker 1: Micah Ahadro continuing at quarterback after taking over mid season

295
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Speaker 1: last year, but at least his two top receivers will

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Speaker 1: be back in the mix this year, as well as

297
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Speaker 1: his running back Land and Simms Boggs. This is one

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Speaker 1: of those rare instances, though, where Hawaii did open as

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Speaker 1: a two and a half point dog and they are

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Speaker 1: now bet up to a one and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: Will that line continue to move in that direction?

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Speaker 2: I don't know how much more it will move, Because

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Speaker 2: as much confidence as you don't have in Stanford, and

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Speaker 2: no one should have any confidence in Stanford, I have

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Speaker 2: about the same amount of confidence in Hawaii. I think

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Speaker 2: Hawhy's got a couple things going for them, right. Troy

307
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Speaker 2: Taylor being fired by Andrew Luck for this bullying thing

308
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Speaker 2: and all that. I mean, it's just weird. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's late in the processes in March, and then Frank Reich,

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Speaker 2: his old head coach, to come in as I guess

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Speaker 2: he's gonna get the interim tag the entire season while

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Speaker 2: they're figuring this out. Is weird. You mentioned they lost

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Speaker 2: their best offensive player in Ali Amator to the draft.

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Speaker 2: He went to the Titans. Also lost their best defensive

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Speaker 2: player and David Bailey transferring out and going to Texas Tech.

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Speaker 2: So I think when you have a team that's already

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Speaker 2: kind of on the rocks, right, I think that when

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Speaker 2: you take their best offensive and best defensive player away,

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Speaker 2: and those guys were the big difference makers for them

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Speaker 2: last year if they had any which they really didn't, right,

321
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Speaker 2: they had good stats. And we saw Ali Haido Mike

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Speaker 2: alaj Haido start against New Mexico last season. He was

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Speaker 2: really good. It was against New Mexico. So let's not

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Speaker 2: you know, uh, throw the baby out with the bathwater

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Speaker 2: or anything. But they're they're Hawaii's at home. It's a

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Speaker 2: long travel for Stanford. It's the first week of the season.

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Speaker 2: You have a new head coach. You know, I think

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Speaker 2: conventional wisdom tells you to take the P four team

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Speaker 2: even on the road, and they're getting points. But I

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Speaker 2: just don't like Stanford right now. I think Hawaii is better.

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Speaker 2: I think Ali Haido, you know, at least has a

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Speaker 2: little bit of experience, and that's what you want. You want,

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Speaker 2: you want to go point for points. So I think

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean Hawaii here. But again, not my favorite

335
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Speaker 2: bet of the week, and I don't I will not

336
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Speaker 2: have action on my pick is Waii. I'm gonna stay

337
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Speaker 2: away from this game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you as well. Like if I had

339
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Speaker 1: to bet this, it would be the Hawaii money line.

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Speaker 1: Ashton Daniels was terrible last year, so I don't know

341
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Speaker 1: how much worse this Stanford offense could get. But I

342
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 1: mean lak A Omanner was such a threat on the

343
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Speaker 1: outside that I think he opened up some of that

344
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Speaker 1: run game as well and drew a ton of double coverage,

345
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Speaker 1: especially after back in twenty twenty three when he put

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Speaker 1: Travis Hunter on skates and I'll notice that game with

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Speaker 1: a three touchdown. So I just don't like it from Stanford.

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Speaker 1: I think they will improve eventually, under Andrew Luck. I

349
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Speaker 1: just don't know if that starts in weekszero here on

350
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Speaker 1: the road in Honolulu. So good call out by you.

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Speaker 1: Looks like another one where we're both not betting it,

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Speaker 1: but we are leaning towards Hawaii. So I like that.

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Speaker 1: And before we keep it moving, I did want to

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Speaker 1: remind everyone as well that if you want to track

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Speaker 1: all your wagers in one place, you should definitely be

356
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,479
Speaker 1: checking out the Betting Pros Pick Tracker. It syncs up

357
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Speaker 1: with your sportsbooks to tally which picks hit and which miss.

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Speaker 1: Plus it gives you a live look at what the

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00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 1: public is doing, so you know, using real time tracking

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00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,080
Speaker 1: to determine whether you should be making these plays or

361
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Speaker 1: maybe whether you should be fading them. So track your

362
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Speaker 1: picks today with the Betting Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com,

363
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 1: slash tracking or on the Betting Pros Sports betting app.

364
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Speaker 1: Let's get to our rapid fire picks for the two

365
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Speaker 1: remaining games on the slate. We've got a Conference USA

366
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Speaker 1: clash at seven pm Eastern time where Sam Houston State

367
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 1: comes into Western Kentucky as anywhere from a nine and

368
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Speaker 1: a half point dog to a ten point Dog and

369
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 1: these were two of the three top teams in CUSA

370
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Speaker 1: last year, but WKU got into the championship game on

371
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 1: tie breakers and then eventually got rolled by Rich Rod

372
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Speaker 1: and Jacksonville State. Bad defeat for them to end the season.

373
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Speaker 1: The Hilltoppers have won against the Bearcats in two straight seasons. However,

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Speaker 1: Sam Houston is returning dual threat quarterback Hunter Watson and

375
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 1: a bunch of big boys up front, while WKU is

376
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 1: almost totally new look on the offensive side of the ball.

377
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Speaker 1: Where are you going in this game, Bogs.

378
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Speaker 2: Over, Let's not pick a side in this I know

379
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 2: there's a side that you like, but for me, it's

380
00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,359
Speaker 2: over fifty nine. I think we have two good offenses

381
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 2: and two really bad defenses here, which is why I

382
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 2: like the OVER and WKU. They're turning the roster over right,

383
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 2: but the system is going to be the same. They're

384
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 2: going to be very, very pass heavy, and they bring

385
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,879
Speaker 2: in a new quarterback, Maverick McIver from Abilene Christian and

386
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 2: this dude career sixty percent completion rate with over one

387
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:44,920
Speaker 2: thousand attempts, thirty touchdowns, seven picks last year. I just

388
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 2: think a QB with experience is going to continue to

389
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 2: have this offense rolling Hunter Watson, your boy from Sam Houston.

390
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 2: He wasn't great. He got hurt last year against WKU.

391
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,679
Speaker 2: He wasn't great passing the ball either, But against WKU

392
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 2: he was six for nine for a hundred twenty eight

393
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 2: yards and two scores before leaving injured. He's a run

394
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 2: heavy threat, which I think means he's They're gonna be

395
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 2: putting out some points. WKU is one hundred and second

396
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 2: in returning production on defense and their defense wasn't great

397
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 2: last year, and Sam Houston is one hundred and thirty

398
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 2: third in returning defensive production. So there's lots of new

399
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:25,439
Speaker 2: moving pieces. Both teams have qbs with experience. I like

400
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 2: the over.

401
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 1: Okay, it makes sense, man, I totally understand why you're

402
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 1: going that direction. My thing is, this is not SCS football.

403
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 1: This is accuse the football, baby, and I think nobody

404
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 1: does it better and more under the radar than Sam

405
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 1: Houston State. I've already bet at favorite pick of the

406
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 1: week sam Houston plus ten flat minus one oh five

407
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 1: at ESPN Bet. I'm also taking a little money line

408
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 1: Sprinkle plus three forty for about half a unit. Give

409
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 1: me the experienced quarterback going in as a ten point dog.

410
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 1: And let's not forget the motivation of this as well.

411
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 1: They saw the same WKU team I'm a different roster,

412
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: but same program get blown out in the championship game.

413
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 1: They probably feel that they should have had that advantage

414
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 1: going in there and could have potentially upset rich Rod

415
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 1: and company there. So I think even with home field

416
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 1: at play, I think this line should be closer to

417
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,719
Speaker 1: a touchdown. I think it probably moves in that direction

418
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 1: as well as the week goes on. So give me

419
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 1: a little Sam Houston State plus ten and also take

420
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 1: a little sprinkle in that money line, Bogs.

421
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 2: I like it. I don't like a side because I

422
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: want to see what these teams defenses look like, but

423
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 2: I like it. Get some confidence in your boys. Let's go, baby,

424
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 2: might go to that game? Is that is that game here?

425
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 1: Especial Kentucky Western Kentucky. How far is Sam Houston from you?

426
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 2: I'm not long forty five minutes?

427
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 1: Oh that would be so. I was just talking to

428
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: my buddy. He has to go pick up some NASCAR

429
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 1: die cast he brought bought out in Toledo. I've always

430
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:53,959
Speaker 1: wanted to go to Toledo game. So we were kind

431
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 1: of like trying to like look at dates and like

432
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 1: when I'm not on shows and stuff, and it hasn't

433
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: worked out. I don't know if I'll be going, but yeah,

434
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 1: I'm trying to get out. I would love to visit

435
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,640
Speaker 1: like all the G five well, I guess G six

436
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: now stadiums. I think that would be cool. Sam Houston

437
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: definitely on that list as well. But let's go ahead.

438
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,959
Speaker 1: Let's one more pick for the afternoon here. Also on

439
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 1: Saturday is UNLV's home opener at four pm Eastern time

440
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: against the FCS based Idaho State Bengals. Idaho State finished

441
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: towards the bottom of the Big Sky Conference with a

442
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,719
Speaker 1: five and seven overall record. Meanwhile, UNLV great season four

443
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 1: of them last year finished eleven and three, but they

444
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 1: did end up losing the championship game in the Mountain

445
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 1: West two ash and Gent's Boise State Broncos couldn't stop

446
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 1: him once, couldn't stop him twice. Still, the Rebels now

447
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 1: begin the Dan Mullen era, who leaves TV heads back

448
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 1: to college football, and they are losing their top wide

449
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 1: receiver Ricky White and quarterback Hodge Malik Williams and a

450
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 1: ton of other starters as well, unsure as of now,

451
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 1: if it will be Michigan transfer quarterback Alex or G

452
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 1: or Virginia's Anthony Calandra under center to start here at Boggs.

453
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 1: Do you trust U and LV to lay the big

454
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 1: point total against a subpar FCS squad.

455
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 2: I mean I would pick them, but they are one

456
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty thirty in returning production. Obviously, you know,

457
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: new coaching staff, new pieces here. This is a completely

458
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: different team. The thing that I like. The reason I

459
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 2: would take you and LV, I should say because I

460
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 2: don't like anything about UNLV. But the reason I would

461
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 2: take you on LV is because I think with all

462
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 2: of these new pieces in UNLV, I think you want

463
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 2: to get some momentum. You want to sustain some drives,

464
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 2: you want to cap drives with touchdowns, you want to

465
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 2: get instill as much confidence in your team as possible.

466
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 2: So even if you are blowing out this team, all right,

467
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: let's take Landry out, Let's put org in. Let's take

468
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 2: Orgy out, Let's put Landry in. Let's see what both

469
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: these guys have, and maybe you're giving them both the half.

470
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 2: Maybe if it's a blahut, you're giving them both half.

471
00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 2: Maybe if it's not, you're given one a quarter. Whatever

472
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 2: it is, I think you use this game as a

473
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 2: momentum builder to move forward under new coaching staff, replacing

474
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 2: so many players. So for me, I think UNLV is

475
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,679
Speaker 2: attempting to run up the score here. This is a

476
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 2: bad FCS team from last season. Obviously, maybe it looks

477
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 2: completely different, but I would not expect a lot from them,

478
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, I guess I would lay the points to

479
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 2: taking on LV, but again, stay away.

480
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: For me, I am going to be on UNLV in

481
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 1: some shape or fashion when this line continues to move.

482
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 1: If it does, I saw it right before we went live. Actually,

483
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: Caesar just moved this down to twenty three and a

484
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 1: half points.

485
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 2: So we got a team total for you and LV.

486
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: No no team totals yet, I've been scouring that. One

487
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind here is because this is

488
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: an FCS opponent, some books aren't even listing this game,

489
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: Like Drafting doesn't even have this game listed. So just

490
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: kind of got to keep your head on a swivel

491
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: for this one and look out. Maybe we will get

492
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 1: a team total eventually. Because I agree, I would probably

493
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 1: back at unlv over. But I actually like the fact

494
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 1: that there might be two quarterbacks. I know the old

495
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: homage that if you have two quarterbacks, you have none Scott.

496
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 1: But at the same time, like they're two different style quarterbacks.

497
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: You know, kolandro more of that pocket passer, and then Orgy.

498
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: We don't really think he can throw, but he is quick, right,

499
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 1: We saw that a couple of times.

500
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 2: So both these guys can move. That's a nice thing.

501
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 2: They can both move a little, so we like that

502
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 2: for sure. But yeah, I mean it could it could

503
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 2: look really, it could look clunky as hell to start.

504
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 2: It could look great. That's why I don't really I

505
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 2: don't want to mess with it.

506
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: I will say too, if you know V looks good,

507
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: we'll look for them in the futures market. They were

508
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 1: about twenty to one last time. I looked twenty four

509
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 1: to one at some books to make the playoffs. And

510
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 1: you know, there's always going to be a G five

511
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: or a G six spot open for someone to take it.

512
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 1: You know. I know Boise State is still the favorite

513
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: in that department. But if you know, V can get

514
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: off to a hot start here in this new era

515
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 1: under Dan mull and I like it, So just something

516
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: to keep in mind there.

517
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 2: Twenty four to one, you're on that stuff. I like it.

518
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking man, I'm scoping it out. I also

519
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 1: have speak at Toledo. I always got a little Toledo

520
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 1: to make.

521
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: The playoffs, hunter, the deal Hunter.

522
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 1: That's what we do. That's what we do out here.

523
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 2: Baby.

524
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and round it out though, by discussing

525
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 1: our week zero betting strategy. Bob, when it comes to

526
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 1: your bank roll, are you hammering any of these week

527
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: zero bets or do you think it's wiser to bet

528
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: less potentially avoid yourself getting in a whole heading into

529
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: week one?

530
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think specifically to start, we replace so much

531
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 2: the ross if you guys listen to the you know

532
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: tips for beginners. I mentioned this here, But I think

533
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: your bets should grow as the season grows, when you

534
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 2: become more familiar with the team. So I do minimal action,

535
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: specifically week one in the last week of the season,

536
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 2: because we just don't know a lot about these teams yet.

537
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: You've heard me say that a couple of times here.

538
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 2: And I think I know some stuff, so I'll make

539
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 2: the bets on what I think I know. But I'll learn.

540
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 2: You know, week one is a learning week for most games,

541
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: so there's gonna be a couple of games. I like,

542
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 2: you know, there's a couple thing numbers. I like here

543
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: in week zero, there'll be some I like in week one,

544
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 2: but really week two there'll be way more week three.

545
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: Once you get into conference play, like you know, your

546
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,919
Speaker 2: your bet should bulge in the middle. I feel like

547
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 2: so to me, week zero week one is a wider slate.

548
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: I agree, I'll probably have three plays on my card

549
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 1: in total when it's all said and done. I did

550
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: lay about two units down on Sam Houston. I'm pretty

551
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 1: confident there, but let's go. But like, aside from that,

552
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: like I'll probably be less than a unit invested in

553
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 1: Pharmageddon just because that could go any anyway.

554
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 2: Even the games so tight, Yeah, I know, I know, even.

555
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 1: Though I do like Iowa State to potentially stay under

556
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: their point total and then I would like to lay

557
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 1: something down with you and LV, but just got to

558
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: find the right thing. And something to keep in mind too,

559
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: is that as the week progresses a week closer to Saturday,

560
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 1: I guarantee there'll be some potential she'll boost out there,

561
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 1: maybe some sweat free bets that you can get invested

562
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 1: with too. I know the sportsbooks, they've been chomping at

563
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: the bitch get people back invested in CFB betting. So

564
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 1: there might be some additional ways in there later on

565
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: the week, but we'll certainly cover that that is going

566
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 1: to do it for us. On this opening episode of

567
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros College Football Show, we Back, Let's Go,

568
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: the boys are back in town, Fired Up. Still to

569
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: come later this week and every week of the college

570
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 1: football betting season, our Picks and Prediction show with Terrell

571
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,159
Speaker 1: Boggs will also have his best bets closer the weekend,

572
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: and new we have a parlay Picks episode coming your

573
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: way as well. Let us know down the comments below

574
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: your favorite Week zero early picks, and while you're here,

575
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing. If

576
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: you're new for Scott Bogman, I'm Seth Wilcock take care

577
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 1: of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

578
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

579
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 2: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

580
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 2: or Spotify, Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting

581
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,959
Speaker 2: Pros and Instagram at bets Betting Pros NFL.

582
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com

583
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 1: slash Betting Pros