WEBVTT - NFL Survivor Strategies | August 4, 2023

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<v Speaker 1>Hey guys, it's Gale. Thanks for listening to our beating

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<v Speaker 1>the book feed. We really appreciate it. I know I do.

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<v Speaker 1>Did you know that?

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<v Speaker 2>On top of the podcast, I also do a daily

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<v Speaker 2>show called a Numbers Game on vsin the Sports Betting Network.

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<v Speaker 2>That show is also its own podcast, and you can

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<v Speaker 2>find it by searching for a Numbers Game wherever you

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<v Speaker 2>get your podcasts. We did something on the show this

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<v Speaker 2>morning that I think you'll like it. I wanted you

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<v Speaker 2>to hear it.

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<v Speaker 1>Take a listen.

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<v Speaker 3>Numbers Game on fe SID the Sports Betting Network.

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<v Speaker 2>It's Kelly Beidlin Kelly document documentary I Should Say What's

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<v Speaker 2>wrong with Me?

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<v Speaker 1>Documentary recommendation all over the docks.

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<v Speaker 3>Recently, Yeah yeah, on like episode three Quarterbacks still so good,

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<v Speaker 3>isn't it good?

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<v Speaker 1>It's awesome?

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<v Speaker 2>Quarterback Quarterbacks on Netflix again, a Patrick Mahomes Kirk Cousins

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<v Speaker 2>Marcus Mariota focused docu series eight episodes, so good. It'll

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<v Speaker 2>get your pump for football. And uh, Deeph Curry. The

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<v Speaker 2>one I want to mention is the one on Apple

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<v Speaker 2>TV about Steph Curry.

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<v Speaker 1>What it is? Anybody talk tremendous love it on Apple

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Okay?

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<v Speaker 2>Uh it is called underrated Stephan Curry underrated and.

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<v Speaker 3>It has I'm firing that up on the plane goes back.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a lot of it from the Davidson days and

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<v Speaker 3>it's so so good. And you realize, as much as

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<v Speaker 3>we appreciate Steph Curry four championships changing the game of basketball,

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<v Speaker 3>we do not appreciate him enough what he did from nowhere.

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<v Speaker 1>No, we don't unrecruited.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, and those Davidson days, like that was such

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<v Speaker 3>an awesome It was such an awesome run. And I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>I'll be the first to admit it, Like I was

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<v Speaker 3>definitely one of those people. I was like, what an

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<v Speaker 3>adorable story, like this is such a great story. Del

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<v Speaker 3>Curry's kid. He can't miss a shot. This is great,

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<v Speaker 3>too bad, Like this is as far as he's gonna go.

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<v Speaker 3>Like this isn't gonna translate, and then just just change

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<v Speaker 3>the NBA.

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<v Speaker 2>They talk to his team mates from that team, how

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<v Speaker 2>they just you know, they rode him to glory. How

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<v Speaker 2>close he still is with the coach back then. It's just,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, a lot of his family, his kids are

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<v Speaker 2>are featured in it as well, him going back to

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<v Speaker 2>get his degree.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's awesome.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm the whole thing seeing it behind you. I'm pumping

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<v Speaker 3>for the Lakers show to start back up again. Show

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<v Speaker 3>winning Time, Showtime.

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<v Speaker 1>Winning Time? Is it called the winning Time?

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<v Speaker 4>Winning Time? Actually got one right.

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<v Speaker 2>Everything about that was great, except where they just destroyed

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<v Speaker 2>Jerry West, which some people say is accurate.

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<v Speaker 1>Some people are like, I don't know why they did that.

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<v Speaker 3>I I feel like most of what I read from

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<v Speaker 3>people that know him said like both of those things,

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<v Speaker 3>like a lot of it's accurate, but it wasn't necessary.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah the other.

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<v Speaker 4>One, what was the what was the other thing? I

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<v Speaker 4>just saw step on.

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<v Speaker 3>The that show that I fixed on the internet, just

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<v Speaker 3>on the Internet. But it's what is it hot ones

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<v Speaker 3>or hot wings or whatever? You ever seen that where

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<v Speaker 3>they eat the.

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<v Speaker 1>Really hot comes up on TikTok or Instagram.

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<v Speaker 3>Or it's a it's a great idea. I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>the guy's agreed, but that's just me.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, he's he You don't think about him at all.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I don't think about him at all. I think

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<v Speaker 4>it's a great idea for a show. But Steph was

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<v Speaker 4>on there.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh, he was telling a story about like his first

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<v Speaker 3>interactions with.

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<v Speaker 4>Kobe in the league.

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<v Speaker 3>Those were amazing stories. That's one you got to go

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<v Speaker 3>check out if you get a few moments.

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<v Speaker 1>I couldn't get past the third level of those wings.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm guessing, Oh it's it's it's bad because like in

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<v Speaker 3>that type of story, he's talking about Kobe and it's

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<v Speaker 3>like he's got you know, he's got a sniffle.

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<v Speaker 4>A couple of times you're like, oh, is he is

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<v Speaker 4>he kind of crying? No, he just ate like really

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<v Speaker 4>hot wings.

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<v Speaker 2>That's why the only other time Kobe came up on

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<v Speaker 2>the show real quick cause I want to get to survivor.

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<v Speaker 2>We were off air and we're talking about Diana Tarassi

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<v Speaker 2>yesterday and you compared her to Kobe Diana Trossi the

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<v Speaker 2>Mercury yesterday became becoming the first WNBA player to score

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<v Speaker 2>ten thousand points. She scored forty two, and the Mercury's

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<v Speaker 2>twenty point went over the dream.

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<v Speaker 3>Last night, I didn't see the game, but just watching

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<v Speaker 3>the highlights, it was like she's taking every shot.

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<v Speaker 4>And just making everything. And you got and you pull

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<v Speaker 4>up the box.

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<v Speaker 3>Score and it was pretty much that way too. She

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<v Speaker 3>had forty Nobody else had scored double digits on the team.

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<v Speaker 3>She was the entire score, the entire score of the

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<v Speaker 3>entire for the team.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, Hard Knocks with Your Wonder End begins

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<v Speaker 2>next week on HBO Max.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, yes, Jil, I think I got a few things

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<v Speaker 4>to get through before I.

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<v Speaker 2>Get I do two, all right, Survivor this is uh.

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<v Speaker 2>We sort of wet our appetite with this yesterday when

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<v Speaker 2>Crack was in here talking about Week one, and now

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<v Speaker 2>there's only one team favored by more than six and

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<v Speaker 2>a half points, that being the Baltimore Ravens week one.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a couple teams other teams that are six and

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<v Speaker 2>a half point favorites. Maybe the Commanders will end up

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<v Speaker 2>being the most popular selection week one, and it sort

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<v Speaker 2>of got us thinking, what about just overall survivor strategy

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<v Speaker 2>And Kelly, this is again falls onto the category of

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<v Speaker 2>maybe you like what I have to say here, maybe

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<v Speaker 2>you don't. You know, just hopefully there's some food for thought,

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<v Speaker 2>there's something in this for you. First of all, I

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<v Speaker 2>always say the game is misnamed, right. The fact that

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<v Speaker 2>it's called survivor gets most people to think the object

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<v Speaker 2>here is to survive, when the object is to win.

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<v Speaker 1>The object is to win.

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<v Speaker 2>Keep that in mind, because if most people have a

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<v Speaker 2>survivor mentality, that will shift the game theory over to

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<v Speaker 2>you and you will actually have the proper mentality to

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<v Speaker 2>get to the promised Land with this.

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<v Speaker 1>That's it.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think you get too cute early. We talked

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<v Speaker 2>about earlier on the show how there's some people who

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<v Speaker 2>they map it out from the beginning of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>They're like, there you go, eighteen weeks of football. I

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<v Speaker 2>figured it all out. Now I'm just on autopilot. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think you get too cute in the first

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<v Speaker 2>handful of games the first month of football. Because we

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<v Speaker 2>on this show, we on this network. Anyone who's talking

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<v Speaker 2>about pro football during the summer, we're talking none of

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<v Speaker 2>us knows a thing. Yeah, none of us knows a thing.

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<v Speaker 2>That doesn't mean that we don't have something of value

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<v Speaker 2>to say. At some point. Maybe there's an opinion that manifests.

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<v Speaker 2>But the truth is, it's like, how many NFL seasons

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<v Speaker 2>is that there were one two weeks into the season,

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<v Speaker 2>we're like, oh my god, I completely add this team wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>Every year every year.

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<v Speaker 3>Just like examples from a year ago, Yes, uh, Matt

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<v Speaker 3>Ryanan in Indianapolis Colts, We're gonna just smoke the AFC

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<v Speaker 3>South right, and then oh boy, that division of DEATHFC West,

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<v Speaker 3>Oh boy, you didn't want to play.

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<v Speaker 1>In that, It's gonna be the greatest division of all

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<v Speaker 1>the time.

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<v Speaker 4>I totally said those words too.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sure I did to some degree as well. But

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<v Speaker 2>I do think so I don't think you do that

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<v Speaker 2>at the begining. I think at the beginning you don't

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<v Speaker 2>play it cute. You gravitate towards even though you know

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<v Speaker 2>we don't know much. There are some things you know

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<v Speaker 2>probably better than others. You play it conservatively. This is

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<v Speaker 2>just my opinion, but I do think about five six

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<v Speaker 2>weeks through the season, then maybe you start with the

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<v Speaker 2>mapping out right you're deep enough into it, there's probably

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of people eliminated by that point. Or you

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<v Speaker 2>start the map out but again, not a sacred thing.

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<v Speaker 2>But here are the big tenets to know generally, whether

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<v Speaker 2>you agree with when you start to map and when

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<v Speaker 2>you don't, maybe you don't map at all. Know the

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<v Speaker 2>size of your pool, like with dfs, know the size

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<v Speaker 2>of your pool. The fewer people that are in it,

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<v Speaker 2>the less frisky you got to get, the more conservative

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<v Speaker 2>you ought to be. The more people that are in it,

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<v Speaker 2>the more sort of chance taking you should take. Generally speaking,

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<v Speaker 2>you should really employ game theory at that point. Again,

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<v Speaker 2>remember the object is to win, not to survive. Often,

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<v Speaker 2>and this is a big point. Often the option on

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<v Speaker 2>a given week that is just a few percentage points

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<v Speaker 2>lower in win probability, but as far less popular can

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<v Speaker 2>be a great pick. That is the big thing to know.

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<v Speaker 2>It's one thing to know the size of your pool.

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<v Speaker 2>It's another to know what is going to be the

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<v Speaker 2>most popular pick of that given week. That's where the

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<v Speaker 2>game theory comes in, if you know. I once asked

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<v Speaker 2>Jeff Parl as we did a thought exercise when he

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<v Speaker 2>was the producer. We're heading into the Thanksgiving game and

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<v Speaker 2>I said, jeffre's one hundred people left. If you knew

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<v Speaker 2>ninety nine we're going to take the Cowboys, would you

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<v Speaker 2>take the Raiders? And he said I couldn't do it.

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<v Speaker 2>And I was like, Jeff, how often in life do

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<v Speaker 2>you get a chance at six million dollars?

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<v Speaker 1>Right? You have to be able to just and this

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<v Speaker 1>is the problem with Survivor.

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<v Speaker 2>You've survived for survived, right for as long as you

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<v Speaker 2>have the ability to put it all out on the line.

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<v Speaker 2>You have to be able to do that mentally if

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<v Speaker 2>you think it's going to give you this great win

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<v Speaker 2>percentage advantage if that team, if the most popular team

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<v Speaker 2>is going to get knocked out, you have to think

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<v Speaker 2>that way. Specific pool rules, you know, like with Circa,

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<v Speaker 2>you have to know that there's a Thanksgiving quirk in there,

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<v Speaker 2>so you have to be able to you know, you

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<v Speaker 2>can't go into obviously a contest like that not knowing that,

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<v Speaker 2>because then you'll expend to the Thanksgiving teams. So you

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<v Speaker 2>got to know stuff like that. And that's just some

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<v Speaker 2>myths that you hear people say during a Survivor year. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>they'll say things like, well, you know what, I never

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<v Speaker 2>played division games. You should always avoid division games. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>the truth is because the the belief of that is

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<v Speaker 2>that you know that their upsets are more likely when

0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:41.800
<v Speaker 2>two division rivals get together. But the truth is that

0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:45.120
<v Speaker 2>even though that may sound good and easy for your

0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:47.320
<v Speaker 2>brain to digest. Oh yeah, that sounds right, division rivals

0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:50.320
<v Speaker 2>more upsets happen, the evidence simply doesn't support it. Since

0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:53.640
<v Speaker 2>two thousand and two, among teams favored by five points

0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:56.440
<v Speaker 2>or more, the types of teams you would pick in Survivor, generally,

0:09:56.760 --> 0:10:01.000
<v Speaker 2>division favorites have actually won a higher percentage division favorites.

0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:03.200
<v Speaker 2>So you have to sort of stay away from that

0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:06.240
<v Speaker 2>kind of advice in general. Some things just sound better

0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.880
<v Speaker 2>than they actually are in reality. And then one thing

0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:11.839
<v Speaker 2>that is true though, like then there's other advice that

0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:16.000
<v Speaker 2>people give. You know, road favorites do in fact lose

0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:19.440
<v Speaker 2>more than home favorites do. So some things that people

0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:22.000
<v Speaker 2>like to throw around are actually true, some aren't. Just

0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:25.120
<v Speaker 2>keep those things in mind. So again, some of those

0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:27.240
<v Speaker 2>things are going to resonate with you, others are not.

0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:29.120
<v Speaker 2>I hope there's something in there for you to keep

0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:31.760
<v Speaker 2>in mind. When we start Survivor, whether it's CIRCA, whether

0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:34.800
<v Speaker 2>it's your own local survivor pool, whatever, it's the best

0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:38.520
<v Speaker 2>contest going period, more than a contest and obsession.

0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:41.360
<v Speaker 4>One question for you, real quick. Do you max out entries?

0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:44.440
<v Speaker 2>If you can, I think you get close if not

0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.240
<v Speaker 2>fully yes, though ten is a lot for a lot

0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:49.679
<v Speaker 2>of people. I hear you for Circa this year when

0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:51.319
<v Speaker 2>it was six. Last year, I did five.

0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.240
<v Speaker 1>Just to give you an example. Can't wait.

0:10:53.440 --> 0:10:55.440
<v Speaker 2>We've done all we can do. Lobardi line is next.

0:10:55.520 --> 0:11:01.360
<v Speaker 2>Enjoy from Vson. These sports betting networks

0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:03.400
<v Speaker 3>Am