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Speaker 2: It's Kelly Beidlin Kelly document documentary I Should Say What's
Speaker 2: wrong with Me?
Speaker 1: Documentary recommendation all over the docks.
Speaker 3: Recently, Yeah yeah, on like episode three Quarterbacks still so good,
Speaker 3: isn't it good?
Speaker 1: It's awesome?
Speaker 2: Quarterback Quarterbacks on Netflix again, a Patrick Mahomes Kirk Cousins
Speaker 2: Marcus Mariota focused docu series eight episodes, so good. It'll
Speaker 2: get your pump for football. And uh, Deeph Curry. The
Speaker 2: one I want to mention is the one on Apple
Speaker 2: TV about Steph Curry.
Speaker 1: What it is? Anybody talk tremendous love it on Apple
Speaker 1: on Apple Okay?
Speaker 2: Uh it is called underrated Stephan Curry underrated and.
Speaker 3: It has I'm firing that up on the plane goes back.
Speaker 3: It's a lot of it from the Davidson days and
Speaker 3: it's so so good. And you realize, as much as
Speaker 3: we appreciate Steph Curry four championships changing the game of basketball,
Speaker 3: we do not appreciate him enough what he did from nowhere.
Speaker 1: No, we don't unrecruited.
Speaker 3: I mean, and those Davidson days, like that was such
Speaker 3: an awesome It was such an awesome run. And I mean,
Speaker 3: I'll be the first to admit it, Like I was
Speaker 3: definitely one of those people. I was like, what an
Speaker 3: adorable story, like this is such a great story. Del
Speaker 3: Curry's kid. He can't miss a shot. This is great,
Speaker 3: too bad, Like this is as far as he's gonna go.
Speaker 3: Like this isn't gonna translate, and then just just change
Speaker 3: the NBA.
Speaker 2: They talk to his team mates from that team, how
Speaker 2: they just you know, they rode him to glory. How
Speaker 2: close he still is with the coach back then. It's just,
Speaker 2: you know, a lot of his family, his kids are
Speaker 2: are featured in it as well, him going back to
Speaker 2: get his degree.
Speaker 1: It's it's awesome.
Speaker 3: I'm the whole thing seeing it behind you. I'm pumping
Speaker 3: for the Lakers show to start back up again. Show
Speaker 3: winning Time, Showtime.
Speaker 1: Winning Time? Is it called the winning Time?
Speaker 4: Winning Time? Actually got one right.
Speaker 2: Everything about that was great, except where they just destroyed
Speaker 2: Jerry West, which some people say is accurate.
Speaker 1: Some people are like, I don't know why they did that.
Speaker 3: I I feel like most of what I read from
Speaker 3: people that know him said like both of those things,
Speaker 3: like a lot of it's accurate, but it wasn't necessary.
Speaker 1: Yeah the other.
Speaker 4: One, what was the what was the other thing? I
Speaker 4: just saw step on.
Speaker 3: The that show that I fixed on the internet, just
Speaker 3: on the Internet. But it's what is it hot ones
Speaker 3: or hot wings or whatever? You ever seen that where
Speaker 3: they eat the.
Speaker 1: Really hot comes up on TikTok or Instagram.
Speaker 3: Or it's a it's a great idea. I don't think
Speaker 3: the guy's agreed, but that's just me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he You don't think about him at all.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think about him at all. I think
Speaker 4: it's a great idea for a show. But Steph was
Speaker 4: on there.
Speaker 3: Oh, he was telling a story about like his first
Speaker 3: interactions with.
Speaker 4: Kobe in the league.
Speaker 3: Those were amazing stories. That's one you got to go
Speaker 3: check out if you get a few moments.
Speaker 1: I couldn't get past the third level of those wings.
Speaker 3: I'm guessing, Oh it's it's it's bad because like in
Speaker 3: that type of story, he's talking about Kobe and it's
Speaker 3: like he's got you know, he's got a sniffle.
Speaker 4: A couple of times you're like, oh, is he is
Speaker 4: he kind of crying? No, he just ate like really
Speaker 4: hot wings.
Speaker 2: That's why the only other time Kobe came up on
Speaker 2: the show real quick cause I want to get to survivor.
Speaker 2: We were off air and we're talking about Diana Tarassi
Speaker 2: yesterday and you compared her to Kobe Diana Trossi the
Speaker 2: Mercury yesterday became becoming the first WNBA player to score
Speaker 2: ten thousand points. She scored forty two, and the Mercury's
Speaker 2: twenty point went over the dream.
Speaker 3: Last night, I didn't see the game, but just watching
Speaker 3: the highlights, it was like she's taking every shot.
Speaker 4: And just making everything. And you got and you pull
Speaker 4: up the box.
Speaker 3: Score and it was pretty much that way too. She
Speaker 3: had forty Nobody else had scored double digits on the team.
Speaker 3: She was the entire score, the entire score of the
Speaker 3: entire for the team.
Speaker 2: By the way, Hard Knocks with Your Wonder End begins
Speaker 2: next week on HBO Max.
Speaker 4: Yes, yes, Jil, I think I got a few things
Speaker 4: to get through before I.
Speaker 2: Get I do two, all right, Survivor this is uh.
Speaker 2: We sort of wet our appetite with this yesterday when
Speaker 2: Crack was in here talking about Week one, and now
Speaker 2: there's only one team favored by more than six and
Speaker 2: a half points, that being the Baltimore Ravens week one.
Speaker 2: There's a couple teams other teams that are six and
Speaker 2: a half point favorites. Maybe the Commanders will end up
Speaker 2: being the most popular selection week one, and it sort
Speaker 2: of got us thinking, what about just overall survivor strategy
Speaker 2: And Kelly, this is again falls onto the category of
Speaker 2: maybe you like what I have to say here, maybe
Speaker 2: you don't. You know, just hopefully there's some food for thought,
Speaker 2: there's something in this for you. First of all, I
Speaker 2: always say the game is misnamed, right. The fact that
Speaker 2: it's called survivor gets most people to think the object
Speaker 2: here is to survive, when the object is to win.
Speaker 1: The object is to win.
Speaker 2: Keep that in mind, because if most people have a
Speaker 2: survivor mentality, that will shift the game theory over to
Speaker 2: you and you will actually have the proper mentality to
Speaker 2: get to the promised Land with this.
Speaker 1: That's it.
Speaker 2: I don't think you get too cute early. We talked
Speaker 2: about earlier on the show how there's some people who
Speaker 2: they map it out from the beginning of the year.
Speaker 2: They're like, there you go, eighteen weeks of football. I
Speaker 2: figured it all out. Now I'm just on autopilot. Well,
Speaker 2: I don't think you get too cute in the first
Speaker 2: handful of games the first month of football. Because we
Speaker 2: on this show, we on this network. Anyone who's talking
Speaker 2: about pro football during the summer, we're talking none of
Speaker 2: us knows a thing. Yeah, none of us knows a thing.
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean that we don't have something of value
Speaker 2: to say. At some point. Maybe there's an opinion that manifests.
Speaker 2: But the truth is, it's like, how many NFL seasons
Speaker 2: is that there were one two weeks into the season,
Speaker 2: we're like, oh my god, I completely add this team wrong.
Speaker 1: Every year every year.
Speaker 3: Just like examples from a year ago, Yes, uh, Matt
Speaker 3: Ryanan in Indianapolis Colts, We're gonna just smoke the AFC
Speaker 3: South right, and then oh boy, that division of DEATHFC West,
Speaker 3: Oh boy, you didn't want to play.
Speaker 1: In that, It's gonna be the greatest division of all
Speaker 1: the time.
Speaker 4: I totally said those words too.
Speaker 2: I'm sure I did to some degree as well. But
Speaker 2: I do think so I don't think you do that
Speaker 2: at the begining. I think at the beginning you don't
Speaker 2: play it cute. You gravitate towards even though you know
Speaker 2: we don't know much. There are some things you know
Speaker 2: probably better than others. You play it conservatively. This is
Speaker 2: just my opinion, but I do think about five six
Speaker 2: weeks through the season, then maybe you start with the
Speaker 2: mapping out right you're deep enough into it, there's probably
Speaker 2: a lot of people eliminated by that point. Or you
Speaker 2: start the map out but again, not a sacred thing.
Speaker 2: But here are the big tenets to know generally, whether
Speaker 2: you agree with when you start to map and when
Speaker 2: you don't, maybe you don't map at all. Know the
Speaker 2: size of your pool, like with dfs, know the size
Speaker 2: of your pool. The fewer people that are in it,
Speaker 2: the less frisky you got to get, the more conservative
Speaker 2: you ought to be. The more people that are in it,
Speaker 2: the more sort of chance taking you should take. Generally speaking,
Speaker 2: you should really employ game theory at that point. Again,
Speaker 2: remember the object is to win, not to survive. Often,
Speaker 2: and this is a big point. Often the option on
Speaker 2: a given week that is just a few percentage points
Speaker 2: lower in win probability, but as far less popular can
Speaker 2: be a great pick. That is the big thing to know.
Speaker 2: It's one thing to know the size of your pool.
Speaker 2: It's another to know what is going to be the
Speaker 2: most popular pick of that given week. That's where the
Speaker 2: game theory comes in, if you know. I once asked
Speaker 2: Jeff Parl as we did a thought exercise when he
Speaker 2: was the producer. We're heading into the Thanksgiving game and
Speaker 2: I said, jeffre's one hundred people left. If you knew
Speaker 2: ninety nine we're going to take the Cowboys, would you
Speaker 2: take the Raiders? And he said I couldn't do it.
Speaker 2: And I was like, Jeff, how often in life do
Speaker 2: you get a chance at six million dollars?
Speaker 1: Right? You have to be able to just and this
Speaker 1: is the problem with Survivor.
Speaker 2: You've survived for survived, right for as long as you
Speaker 2: have the ability to put it all out on the line.
Speaker 2: You have to be able to do that mentally if
Speaker 2: you think it's going to give you this great win
Speaker 2: percentage advantage if that team, if the most popular team
Speaker 2: is going to get knocked out, you have to think
Speaker 2: that way. Specific pool rules, you know, like with Circa,
Speaker 2: you have to know that there's a Thanksgiving quirk in there,
Speaker 2: so you have to be able to you know, you
Speaker 2: can't go into obviously a contest like that not knowing that,
Speaker 2: because then you'll expend to the Thanksgiving teams. So you
Speaker 2: got to know stuff like that. And that's just some
Speaker 2: myths that you hear people say during a Survivor year. Well,
Speaker 2: they'll say things like, well, you know what, I never
Speaker 2: played division games. You should always avoid division games. Well,
Speaker 2: the truth is because the the belief of that is
Speaker 2: that you know that their upsets are more likely when
Speaker 2: two division rivals get together. But the truth is that
Speaker 2: even though that may sound good and easy for your
Speaker 2: brain to digest. Oh yeah, that sounds right, division rivals
Speaker 2: more upsets happen, the evidence simply doesn't support it. Since
Speaker 2: two thousand and two, among teams favored by five points
Speaker 2: or more, the types of teams you would pick in Survivor, generally,
Speaker 2: division favorites have actually won a higher percentage division favorites.
Speaker 2: So you have to sort of stay away from that
Speaker 2: kind of advice in general. Some things just sound better
Speaker 2: than they actually are in reality. And then one thing
Speaker 2: that is true though, like then there's other advice that
Speaker 2: people give. You know, road favorites do in fact lose
Speaker 2: more than home favorites do. So some things that people
Speaker 2: like to throw around are actually true, some aren't. Just
Speaker 2: keep those things in mind. So again, some of those
Speaker 2: things are going to resonate with you, others are not.
Speaker 2: I hope there's something in there for you to keep
Speaker 2: in mind. When we start Survivor, whether it's CIRCA, whether
Speaker 2: it's your own local survivor pool, whatever, it's the best
Speaker 2: contest going period, more than a contest and obsession.
Speaker 4: One question for you, real quick. Do you max out entries?
Speaker 2: If you can, I think you get close if not
Speaker 2: fully yes, though ten is a lot for a lot
Speaker 2: of people. I hear you for Circa this year when
Speaker 2: it was six. Last year, I did five.
Speaker 1: Just to give you an example. Can't wait.
Speaker 2: We've done all we can do. Lobardi line is next.
Speaker 2: Enjoy from Vson. These sports betting networks
Speaker 3: Am