WEBVTT - Loads of Vultures: Funds, Agents, Bets 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:09.680 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. I have another piece 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:11.760 of information that can't be used on the podcast. 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:13.320 We'll say it in front of the microphone. 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:19.120 There's a dead possible in my backyard, and I'm trying 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:20.840 to pretend that I haven't noticed that that I. 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:24.200 Have to Matt. That gets worse by the hour. 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:25.079 I know. 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:28.639 The thing is, wait, we can't put this in the 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:29.680 pod well. 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:30.840 Because then my wife would hear it? 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:33.920 Now, did she listen? Sometimes that's cute. 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:36.840 So one day I noticed the dead scroll in my yard, 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:39.600 and I and then like, I forgot about and I 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:41.520 came back the next day and I was gone, there's 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:44.760 like a fairy number of birds of prey in my yeah. 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:47.680 And I was like, ah, good job birds of prey. 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:50.320 So he's just hoping one of them gets the job done. 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:53.519 But this problem is now past this expission day. 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:56.840 Birds of prey, you most only mean vultures, because I 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:58.160 don't think like a hawk would eat. 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:04.160 Okay, there's loads of vultures in my neighborhood, right, but no, 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:08.119 we see bald eagles a fair amount, and the bald 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:09.560 eagle famously a scavenger. 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:11.440 You know, I feel like I did know that actually, 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:12.039 but I have. 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.479 It's like Ben Franklin's whole thing, like he wanted the 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:16.959 national bird of America to be the turkey because the 0:01:17.000 --> 0:01:19.400 turkey is a noble bird in the bald eagle as 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:20.040 a scavenger. 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:22.840 It kind of reminds me of when my cat vomits 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:26.160 in my apartment and I pretend not to notice it 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:28.640 until my husband does and then he cleans it up. 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.240 Hello, and welcome to the Money Stuff Podcast. You're a 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:36.320 weekly podcast where we talk about stuff relate it to money. 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:39.280 I'm Matt Levine and I write the Money Stuff column 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:40.240 for Bloomberg Opinion. 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:43.600 And I'm Katie Greifeld, a reporter for Bloomberg News and 0:01:43.640 --> 0:01:45.080 an anchor for Bloomberg Television. 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:57.080 Speaking of dead thing, ah, the. 0:01:57.080 --> 0:01:59.200 Death of a multi strat. 0:01:59.560 --> 0:02:01.920 Yeah, so yeah, there's a big story this week about 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.640 Edward Eisler's multi strategy hedge fund, which is called something like. 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:09.760 Strategy edge fund some only along those lines. 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:12.800 Is winding down because it's hard out there for a 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:14.920 multi strategy hedge fund that is not one of the 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:16.760 big four multi strategy edge funds. 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:20.080 Yeah, this is a great scoop from Bloomberg. I did 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:23.760 enjoy also the post mortem written by Sarah Butcher over 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:27.679 at E Financial Careers, which spoke to a bunch of 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:30.880 people who had worked there or were familiar with it, 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.440 And I don't know, you add the two articles together, 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:34.919 it seems like a lot of this just comes down 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:37.519 to costs. Also, returns weren't great. 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:40.280 Yeah, the hedgehod market has gotten so much more efficient 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:43.440 in like my time, it used to be that if 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:45.240 you wanted to start a hedgehund, you start a hedge fund, 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:49.800 and you got capital based on your track record, but 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.520 also your ability to appeal to LP's and what was 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:57.440 in style and what institutional investors are looking for. And 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:00.880 now increasingly the hedge fund business is dominated by these 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:03.320 big multi strategy funds like Millennium and set It All 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:07.600 and zero point seventy two. And if you are a 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:09.960 person who wants to run money, you probably end up 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:12.480 guiding to work for those guys rather than going off 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.600 on your own. And to run money for those guys, 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:17.399 you don't have to be good or telps, you don't 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.480 have to be necessarily in style. You're just doing a 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:21.880 job at a big firm. And so as the market 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.120 gets more efficient, like the people who are good at 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:27.160 those firms get handed huge piles of capital the trade, 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:30.160 and it's just harder and harder to work outside of 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:35.080 those institutions. In particular, it seems really hard to run 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:36.200 a multi strategy fund. 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.640 Yeah, I feel like just the story of Eisler in 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:42.880 general is a sign of the times in two different ways, 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:45.520 because it didn't start as a multi strategy. It started 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.720 as just a single manager fund. Then it pivoted to 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:52.080 become a multi strat in like twenty twenty one, and 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:56.280 now it's winding down because it's not Millennium or Citadel 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:57.880 to simplify it. 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:00.000 Right, when are my reader is about to be like, 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:02.480 his mistake was pivoting to being a multi strategy fund. 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:05.000 Like when you're a single manager fund, you have his 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:07.160 own skill, which is what allowed him to launch a 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:09.960 hedge fund, and you have much more ability to evaluate 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:12.320 the people you're hiring because you're kind of hiring them 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.800 to assist you in making calls that you have a 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.560 good understanding of, rather than hiring them to stand up 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:20.800 an entirely new business under your umbrella. My headline about 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:22.559 this was something like hedge funds have to be big, 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:24.880 and that's not really true right, there's still a market 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:28.839 niche for like people running single manager specialized hedge funds. 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:31.719 But it's probably true that multi strategy hedge funds have 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:33.839 to be big, right, So if you're going to pivot 0:04:33.880 --> 0:04:36.760 from being a single manager fund to being a platform 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:39.680 for a lot of portfolio managers, you have to be 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:42.840 a big platform because otherwise they'll go to somewhere that 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:46.920 can give them more capital and more money. I don't 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.560 know why he pivoted, right, And clearly like there is 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:52.839 some pressure to pivot. Even if you run a single 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.000 manager or fund that has like a good track record 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:58.279 and is really good at its specialty, you're still going 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.680 to feel kind of like squeezed by the big multi 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:04.160 strategy funds that have more resources and are like an 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:07.680 easier check for big allocators to write. It's harder to 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:09.520 compete with them, and so you might think, well, the 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:11.040 best way to compete with them is to be a 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:13.839 multi manager fund myself. But that's a big bet. You 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:15.880 have to become a giant multi strategy fund, yeah, to 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:16.560 really compete. 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:20.000 Instead of getting even better at your thing, Yeah, you 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:21.760 spread out across all the things. 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:23.960 Almost like by the way, all the people who run 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:26.679 the big multi strategy funds like did kind of start 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:30.599 as you know, hedgehund managers and then they became managers 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:32.880 of hedgehome managers. Right, So there's a path, right, It's 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:35.400 just it's likely how many people can follow it anymore. 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:37.599 Yeah, I don't know if I would pivot my hedge 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:40.120 funds that I run to become a multi manager fund 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:42.040 in this day and age. I do want to talk 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:45.920 about fees because that's a recurring theme here, is that 0:05:46.000 --> 0:05:49.839 the pass through expenses at Isler were really high and 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:52.279 they were trying to bring them down and are passed 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:57.080 through fees unique to the multi strategy dynamic. 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:02.480 Yeah, the modern multi strategy funds are somewhere between a 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:05.839 hedge fund and a fund of funds. They're kind of 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:10.520 like their business is to hire portfolio managers, allocate capital 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:13.960 to them, and sort of pay them like hedge fund managers, 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:18.240 and then collect fees from the ultimate investors. And so yeah, 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:23.279 the past three fees are traditionally a hallmark of modern 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:25.479 pod shops because they go to pass through fee is 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.479 I mean, it's like paying for rent and Bloomberg terminals 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:33.200 and stuff, But really what it is is paying performance 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:38.160 fees to the individual portfolio managers regardless of the performance 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:41.520 of the overall fund. Right, So like when you're hiring 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:45.440 portfolio managers, you can pay them incentive compensation on their 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:49.560 own performance. And I think in the current market you 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:54.599 pay them like accelerated performance compensation on their own performance. 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:56.640 So you pay them like a bigger chunk if the 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:58.960 going rate is they get twenty percent of their profits, 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:01.560 like you might pay them thirty percent for their first year, 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:03.560 so that they like have an incentive to join you, 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:05.680 because it's like a really hot market for hedge fund talent. 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:09.240 And if you're doing that and you run a big fund, 0:07:09.800 --> 0:07:13.720 you have some economies of scale and you have some offsetting, 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:16.320 Like you have the ability to like aggregate a lot 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:19.200 of good portfolio managers into something with like high and 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:23.400 uncorrelated returns. But you have a big expense base, and 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:26.080 if you are a smaller fund, it is harder to 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:28.960 spread that expense base over a lot of winning bets. 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:31.960 Well, you think about some of the figures that Nishan 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:35.920 Kumar wrote about. So the firm charge clients two hundred 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:38.120 and forty four million dollars in pass through fees in 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:41.480 twenty twenty three, it was about two hundred million in 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:44.600 twenty twenty two. They had a restructuring earlier this year, 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:47.240 and we're trying to bring their pass through fees down 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:50.000 to twenty twenty two levels. But then you pair that 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:53.320 with the Sara Butcher article and there are some snarky 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.480 quotes from people who used to work there about how 0:07:56.520 --> 0:07:59.360 a lot of their real risk takers had left, like 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:03.360 their hotshot, and they just had this is a direct quote. 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:06.120 They had far too many junior people who didn't know 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:09.160 how to take risks. So it seems like their costs 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:12.320 were really high for at least what's being described in 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:14.120 this article is subper talent. 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:16.880 Well, this is just the efficiency of the market. Like 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.440 this is what Kapi Palaoligo said to us on the 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:23.440 podcast that the funds that he works at are sieves 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:26.679 for talent, right like you have. The big funds are 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:30.600 pretty good at identifying talent, pretty good at firing people 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:33.920 they don't think are talented, and so they end up 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:36.720 with a lot of the good portfolio managers. And if 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:40.199 you're a good portfolio manager at a multi strategy fund, 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:44.920 your name's not on the door. You're kind of doing it. 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:48.199 For the money, right, Like, if someone is like, we'll 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:50.440 allocate you more money and give you more of your 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:54.120 performance as a fee, then you know you end up 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:56.520 at the bigger places they can allocate you more money. 0:08:57.240 --> 0:08:59.920 And if the bigger places are really good at identifying talent, 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:02.240 that's how the talent stive works, and that makes it 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:04.800 really hard for someone who runs a smaller place to 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:05.720 keep the best talent. 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:09.360 There was something in the article about how a lot 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:12.360 of the meeting rooms after this letter went out were 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:16.600 filled with people calling headhunters, et cetera. Apparently some insiders 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:20.920 know that Issler's more mediocre portfolio managers will now simply 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:25.160 fan out across the industry and dilute returns elsewhere. It's just. 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:30.120 I don't know why that would be true. I mean, well, 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:34.480 I don't know. I wish the best to all mediocre 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:42.720 portfolio managers. But it's the talent sive, right. No one's like, oh, 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:45.640 let's scoop up the mediocre portfolio was right, They're trying 0:09:45.640 --> 0:10:00.800 to find the people who have good returns. 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:04.480 A lot of these Eisler employees were calling headhunters at 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:07.160 the start of the week. They could have been calling 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:08.840 actually their new agent. 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.880 Okay, so there's this most of your journal story about 0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:16.079 this guy, Ryan wallshoe Is, I think, has styled themselves 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:20.360 as the first talent agent for hedgphund managers or portfolio managers. 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:22.280 I've certainly never heard of one before. 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:24.160 Haven't you, though, Because you've heard of recruiters. 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:26.080 I've heard of recruiters. I've heard. 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:27.000 Are they different? 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.520 They're a little bit different in terms of who's paying. 0:10:30.800 --> 0:10:33.480 Yeah, okay, I said it, Yeah, all right. 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:34.800 Do you think they're not different? 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:36.120 Do you think they're different? 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:38.000 I think they're a little bit different. 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:40.520 Yeah, they're a little bit different. You could call a 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:45.920 headhunter the headitor will one try to find your job 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:49.400 at a hedge fund, and two try to get you 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:54.120 the best possible compensation package because probably they get a 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:54.960 cut of it, you know. 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:59.160 True, now, but that cut isn't coming from your past, all. 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:01.160 Right, It's coming from the hedge fund, which is so 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:09.040 so right. Traditional headhunter is probably more aligned with the employer, 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.760 whereas an agent is more aligned with the employee. 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:15.040 They should be, there should be, But of. 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:16.800 Them are mostly interested in burgering. 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.200 A deal rather than like we're all trying to eat 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:18.520 you know. 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:20.840 Yeah, So I don't know. My friend is that like 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:23.400 a hedge found agent is not so different from a 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:25.040 hedge fund recruiter. It's a little different. 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:26.600 There's nuance, there's nuance. 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.200 And this guy is apparently the first edge fund agent 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:34.680 but possibly the first one to have a work of 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:38.960 art featuring Ari Gold, the agent from Entourage, on his walls. 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:40.559 Yeah, you know you. 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:43.199 Like watch Like you know, some number of people are 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:45.280 like watching Entourage, like, oh, I could be an agent 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:49.040 for hedge funds. I don't understand, but so this is 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:51.200 what I think about hedgephund agents, Like you think about 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:58.440 like agents classically. It's like sports actors, television anchors think 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:03.080 of this nature. It's it's like traditionally people whose day 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:11.120 job is not financial negotiation and like possibly somewhat unworldly, right, 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:13.840 Like you think about like a quarterback is not like 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:16.240 a business person. They're like, you know, they're throwing a football. 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.640 They're not like thinking about business all day. It's funny 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:21.800 to have an agent for like a hedge fund manager, who, 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:25.160 like I would think that if you're a portfolio manager 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:27.559 at a hedge fund, you actually do have a pretty 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:30.800 good sense of the market. For portfolio managers at hedge 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:31.720 ones in a way. 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:32.720 That's true. 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:35.040 You know, a novelist might not. 0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:36.520 That's true. 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:38.760 It just sort of like as a matter of temperament 0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:41.520 and personality, you'd pay attention to those things, and you'd 0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:44.240 like be able to discuss the value of getting a 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:46.600 higher percentage of your profit sources and upfront. You know, 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:50.680 like you'd think about related topics all day and you'd 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:52.600 be keenly interested in this, So you would probably have 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:54.520 less new information. But as the guy points out, like 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:56.080 you do have a demanding day job, and so you 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.720 probably aren't closely tracking the market for portfolio managers, and 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:03.040 like the market is not super transparent, so like you're 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:07.360 relying on rumor and aneko to know what people are 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:09.520 getting paid elsewhere. And so if there's an agent who 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:13.000 collates all of that information is going to provide value 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:13.240 to you. 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:18.920 Also, the idea of someone negotiating on your behalf and like, so. 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:23.040 Again, yes, I agree, I would want someone to negotiate 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:26.520 it on my behalf. It's possible that a lot of 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.599 run portfolio managers are happy to negotiate. I don't know, 0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:33.200 you're really good a stressed guy. You're like, yeah, I'll 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:34.400 curse at my boss. 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:36.560 Maybe you just want to sit in front of your 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.439 Bloomberg terminal or whatever and think your big thoughts. 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:41.120 No, I agree. I think there's a range of people, 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:43.839 and there certainly a lot of people who have killer 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:47.160 instinct as like electronic traders, but don't want to negotiate 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:49.120 with their boss for more money. Yeah, and so they 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.960 can hire an agent. Reading this article else I thought about, like, 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:53.920 you know who really should have agents? 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:54.480 Tell me. 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:59.480 AI researchers. They check all the boxes. First of all, 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:01.760 they get like an order of magnitude more than hedge 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:05.480 fund portfolio managers, which is crazy. Second, they are like 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.600 stereotypically kind of unworldly, and like they've been like articles 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.920 about like oh, like these twenty three year old AI 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:14.960 researchers are consulting with their friends really see what to 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:16.520 see whether they should take a two hundred and fifty 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.800 million dollars offer from Marketucker work. They should have an agent. Yeah, 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:21.920 I should be it. I mean I shouldn't be, because 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:23.920 I mean all aspects of that. 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:27.520 Job, you'd probably be slightly better than that twenty three 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:27.960 year old. 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:32.640 That's truly, that's right, because like, ultimately the job is 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:35.680 to like appeal to Mark zucker work that maybe he 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:38.360 likes the twenty three year old. That's right, like an agent. 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.560 It's not even like cold calling. Your only call is 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:44.000 to Mark Zuckerberg and trying to write. 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:47.240 It's it's just a degenerate market. It's not like it's 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:49.120 not like, oh, this is what all the rates are. 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:50.240 It's like that this is Mark. 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:54.680 It is funny that the Wall Street Journal article mentioned 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:58.760 that their business is dependent on the scale and proliferation 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:01.720 of multi manager head funds and could dry up if 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:04.680 funds suffer a run of poor performance or redemptions. And 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:08.240 of course we're talking about the death spiral of Isler, 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:12.360 and it's almost similar to the AI researcher. You know, 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:16.240 you're calling up Mark Zuckerberg, or you're calling up is 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:20.600 the Englander or Ken Griffin. It's a slightly bigger pool. 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:24.200 Obviously, it's an interesting question. Like this world that we 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:26.680 live in of these like mult these strategy pod shops 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:28.360 paying a lot of money and sort of dominating the 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:32.320 hedgeh on space is relatively new world, and right, it's 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.000 possible that it's a blip and all this will dry 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.120 up and something new will replace it. But it does 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:41.080 kind of feel like, this is the correct organizing model 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:43.560 for the hedgehund world, where you have like these big 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:49.000 institutions that can allocate a lot of capital to investors 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:54.280 and measure their skill really carefully and maximize the fees 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:56.960 they can charge their limited partners. It feels like it's 0:15:57.000 --> 0:16:00.720 a sort of correct and efficient organization of the industry. 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.160 And in that correct and efficient world, like agents will thrive. 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.320 Right if like all these multimager funds blew up and 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.120 we went back to a world of like single manager 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:12.240 funds with the manager's name on the door, then you 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.160 wouldn't need an agent, right, Yeah, it could be a 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:17.680 different thing, Like you'd be these headshend managers would need 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:20.840 capital introduction, right, they'd need like to meet with LP's, 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.440 but they wouldn't need to get hired by big firms. 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:27.680 But I think the world we live in now where 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:31.320 the big firms hire the portfolio manager feels kind of robust. 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.880 It's not like just an accident that it's organized that way. 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.640 Yeah. No, it feels like it's a ripe space for 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.800 agents to be in. And I'm kind of surprised that 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:47.880 this is the first recruiters. Yeah, that's true. Well, it's 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:49.600 cool that you know, he struck out on his own 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:52.960 and stalled himself as an agent versus just another headhunter. 0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:55.840 Yeah, I mean you see the appeal of a headhunter, 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:57.760 which is the headhunter cold calls you at your current 0:16:57.840 --> 0:16:59.240 job and it's like, I'd like to get you a 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:01.080 new job where you get more money and I will 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.240 take zero percent of it. And this guy calls you, 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:05.080 he's like, I'll take a single digit percent of it. 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:08.280 Yeah. Well, apparently he's doing well. Yeah. 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:11.000 Well, the pitch if I will take a single digit 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:15.159 percent when the number is very large, is actually pretty appealing, right, Like, 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:17.040 I'll negotiat on your behalf. I'll work for you, not 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:18.560 for the hedge fund. Like, I don't know, that's an 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:20.720 appealing pitch if the numbers are large enough. 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:23.960 Yeah. Also single digit not bad. 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:24.680 Yeah. 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:28.000 So he founded this shop. According to LinkedIn and this 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:32.800 article a year ago October twenty twenty four, he's helped 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:36.639 twelve clients land jobs in deals worth a combined one 0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:40.320 hundred and eighty million dollars since launching. So it's so 0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:40.760 not the. 0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:42.919 Top of the top end where like individual deals are 0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.200 fifty or one hundred million dollars, but like pretty good. 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:47.240 Pretty good. It's like fifteen million average time, and. 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.080 Maybe those people will you know, their next jobs will 0:17:50.200 --> 0:18:12.800 be bigger. Yeah, good, onya Ryan Walsh, I love football, 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:17.880 and so do folks on the prediction market that is Calcie. 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:22.960 I do love that CALSHI, which is simultaneously a sports 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.880 book and not a sports book. The advertising you need 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:31.000 to there simultaneously a sports book and not a sports book. Yeah, 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:34.120 they like advertise on Instagram like, you know, the only 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:37.919 legal sports gambling in all fifty states, and then they're like, 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:41.240 we don't do gambling. This has nothing to do with gambling. 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:41.720 Yeah. 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:43.960 The other thing that makes them unlike a sports book 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:48.639 is that they don't license like the NFL's trademarks. So like, 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:50.800 you can bet on the Super Bowl, but it's called 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:52.200 the Pro Football. 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:55.679 Championship Big Game. They can call the Big Game the. 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:57.399 Big Game is controversial. I think it's some point the 0:18:57.480 --> 0:19:01.639 NFL tried to trademark. It's great. In any case, CALSHI 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:04.120 will allow you to bet on the pro football competitions. 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:06.480 And the latest news in CALSHI is that they are 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:10.320 now offering same game parlays. We talked about this on 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:12.480 the mailbag off so prediction markets come out of this 0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:15.120 like high minded idea of like, we're going to have 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:21.880 these prediction markets that produce information about geopolitically important events. Right, 0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:24.439 We're going to allow people to predict events. That's going 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:26.879 to provide more information for the market, and it's going 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:28.199 to be great, and it's going to allow people to 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:30.040 hedge the results of elections, right. 0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:30.720 Yeah. 0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:32.919 And it turns out that the demand for that is 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:35.160 you know, like every four years you want to bet 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:38.080 on a presidential election, but otherwise it's just not that hot. 0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:41.400 The Olympics. Yeah, you care about track and field once 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:43.440 every four years and then you move on unless. 0:19:43.160 --> 0:19:47.280 You're kidding Greyfeld, but all dresslage and track and field that. 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:49.200 You're at esoteric sports. 0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:53.679 But it turns out that when you have a prediction market, 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.240 one thing people like to predict is sporting events, and 0:19:56.280 --> 0:19:59.600 those happen all the time, and people are really addicted 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.000 gambler who put a lot of money into predicting sporting events. 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:04.040 And so if you can have your prediction market predict 0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:08.320 suporting events, then that's a big business. And everybody thought 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:13.680 all of the time until this January that that would 0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:17.960 be crazy. And then obviously you couldn't have sports gambling 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:21.240 in your prediction market, but now you can. So now 0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:25.960 CALSI does. And we've talked about like the regulatory drama 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:28.400 where like the States all try to stop them from 0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:31.320 doing this, but cal she has so far succeeded in 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:33.639